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000
FXUS63 KDTX 020756
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAKE HOP
TODAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE HURON
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...PRESERVING RELATIVELY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER THETA E
CONTENT OVER THE MAINLAND OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...
THE MOISTURE HAS PRESENTED ITSELF AS A LOW CLOUD STRATUS DECK. THE
CLOUD HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST...AIDED BY A COMPONENT OF
THE EVENING LAKE HURON/ST CLAIR AGGREGATE MARINE LAYER RELEASE.
PROGS GENERALLY ALLOW IT TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING BEFORE DIABATIC HEATING/PBL GROWTH OCCURS.
THE OVERALL SOUNDING STRUCTURE TODAY WILL BE A STABLE ONE WITH A
STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT APPROXIMATELY 4500 FT AGL. THE
BELIEF IS THE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD ON THIS MORNING...EVOLVING
INTO A STRATOCUMULUS DECK UNDER DAYTIME HEATING. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
THE FEELING IS THAT CLOUD MAY PROVE STUBBORN TO BURN OFF.
PREFERENCE IS FOR A PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT. COOL LOW TO MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR TODAY. A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SUGGETS HIGHS TODAY WILL
PUSH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE TONIGHT IS THE COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRACE SUGGESTS A RAPID COOL DOWN IN THE THUMB BY
01-02Z...WITH MINS RANGING FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGH
THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S. LAKE BREEZES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WORK INLAND
HOWEVER...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AND COOL AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES
DURING THE DAY...AND THEN PRETTY FAR INLAND BY EVENING.

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN MIGRATE THROUGH
THE LONGWAVE THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK. THIS WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR DROPPING INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...IS FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY LOSES UPPER SUPPORT AND
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY NAM/GFS/EURO TO REACH INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
BEFORE IT WASHES OUT...PROVIDING JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF LIFT. COOLER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING LOOK TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
(SURFACE THROUGH 600MB) ENOUGH OVER THE SAGINAW AND NORTHERN THUMB
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. RIBBON OF THETA-E ADVECTION SPREADING IN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LOOK CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-69. SURFACE RIDGING AXIS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WILL ALSO HOLD SOME
INFLUENCE OVER STABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANY STORMS THAT DO BUILD SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL CANADA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REBUILD ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. LATEST ROUND OF
MODELS SUPPORT PRETTY GOOD UPPER HEIGHT RECOVERY IN THE 586-588DM
RANGE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDERNEATH IT. DRY FORECAST PREVAILS WITH MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING WARMTH THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS AND LOTS
OF CIN...DESPITE MODEL OUTPUT OCCASIONALLY SPITTING OUT SPOTTY QPF.

STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA THEN LOOKS TO CAST A COLD FRONT
OUR WAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME TO A BETTER
CONSENSUS WITH THIS...AND PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO
END THE WORK WEEK...BUT WARM GRADUALLY WARM NEAR 80 WITH SUNSHINE
AND LESS FLOW OFF THE LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASED MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE INTO MICHIGAN TODAY AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT SUSTAIN WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS IT REMAINS LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. A WEAK TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ON SUNDAY YIELDING A
RETURN TO QUIETER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND DTX INDICATE STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT.
THE APX SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE THE DTX
SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850
MB THAT WILL PROVIDE A DUCT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CLOUDS
TO RETURN DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OFF SAGINAW BAY IN THE MBS AREA...THE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL HELP
SPREAD MVFR CEILING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR WHILE BEING BOOSTED BY AN INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. DRY AIR WILL THEN MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH AND BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... MVFR CEILING WILL REACH DTW LATER THAN THE OTHER TERMINAL
SITES AND THE WIND TRAJECTORY COULD PROVIDE MORE OF A GLANCING SHOT
OF COVERAGE. OBSERVED CLOUDS AT PHN COMBINED WITH THE DTX SOUNDING
SUPPORTS A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
  MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020756
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAKE HOP
TODAY...DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE HURON
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ADVANCE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...PRESERVING RELATIVELY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER THETA E
CONTENT OVER THE MAINLAND OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...
THE MOISTURE HAS PRESENTED ITSELF AS A LOW CLOUD STRATUS DECK. THE
CLOUD HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST...AIDED BY A COMPONENT OF
THE EVENING LAKE HURON/ST CLAIR AGGREGATE MARINE LAYER RELEASE.
PROGS GENERALLY ALLOW IT TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING BEFORE DIABATIC HEATING/PBL GROWTH OCCURS.
THE OVERALL SOUNDING STRUCTURE TODAY WILL BE A STABLE ONE WITH A
STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AT APPROXIMATELY 4500 FT AGL. THE
BELIEF IS THE STRATUS DECK WILL HOLD ON THIS MORNING...EVOLVING
INTO A STRATOCUMULUS DECK UNDER DAYTIME HEATING. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...BUT
THE FEELING IS THAT CLOUD MAY PROVE STUBBORN TO BURN OFF.
PREFERENCE IS FOR A PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT. COOL LOW TO MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR TODAY. A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SUGGETS HIGHS TODAY WILL
PUSH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE TONIGHT IS THE COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRACE SUGGESTS A RAPID COOL DOWN IN THE THUMB BY
01-02Z...WITH MINS RANGING FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGH
THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S. LAKE BREEZES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WORK INLAND
HOWEVER...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AND COOL AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES
DURING THE DAY...AND THEN PRETTY FAR INLAND BY EVENING.

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN MIGRATE THROUGH
THE LONGWAVE THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK. THIS WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR DROPPING INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...IS FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY LOSES UPPER SUPPORT AND
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY NAM/GFS/EURO TO REACH INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN
BEFORE IT WASHES OUT...PROVIDING JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF LIFT. COOLER
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING LOOK TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
(SURFACE THROUGH 600MB) ENOUGH OVER THE SAGINAW AND NORTHERN THUMB
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING. RIBBON OF THETA-E ADVECTION SPREADING IN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LOOK CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-69. SURFACE RIDGING AXIS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WILL ALSO HOLD SOME
INFLUENCE OVER STABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANY STORMS THAT DO BUILD SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL CANADA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REBUILD ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. LATEST ROUND OF
MODELS SUPPORT PRETTY GOOD UPPER HEIGHT RECOVERY IN THE 586-588DM
RANGE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UNDERNEATH IT. DRY FORECAST PREVAILS WITH MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING WARMTH THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS AND LOTS
OF CIN...DESPITE MODEL OUTPUT OCCASIONALLY SPITTING OUT SPOTTY QPF.

STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA THEN LOOKS TO CAST A COLD FRONT
OUR WAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME TO A BETTER
CONSENSUS WITH THIS...AND PREFER THE SLOWER TIMING GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO
END THE WORK WEEK...BUT WARM GRADUALLY WARM NEAR 80 WITH SUNSHINE
AND LESS FLOW OFF THE LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASED MIXING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE INTO MICHIGAN TODAY AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT SUSTAIN WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS IT REMAINS LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. A WEAK TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LAKE HURON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ON SUNDAY YIELDING A
RETURN TO QUIETER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND DTX INDICATE STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT.
THE APX SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE THE DTX
SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850
MB THAT WILL PROVIDE A DUCT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CLOUDS
TO RETURN DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OFF SAGINAW BAY IN THE MBS AREA...THE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL HELP
SPREAD MVFR CEILING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR WHILE BEING BOOSTED BY AN INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. DRY AIR WILL THEN MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH AND BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... MVFR CEILING WILL REACH DTW LATER THAN THE OTHER TERMINAL
SITES AND THE WIND TRAJECTORY COULD PROVIDE MORE OF A GLANCING SHOT
OF COVERAGE. OBSERVED CLOUDS AT PHN COMBINED WITH THE DTX SOUNDING
SUPPORTS A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
  MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND DTX INDICATE STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT.
THE APX SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE THE DTX
SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850
MB THAT WILL PROVIDE A DUCT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CLOUDS
TO RETURN DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OFF SAGINAW BAY IN THE MBS AREA...THE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL HELP
SPREAD MVFR CEILING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR WHILE BEING BOOSTED BY AN INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. DRY AIR WILL THEN MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH AND BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... MVFR CEILING WILL REACH DTW LATER THAN THE OTHER TERMINAL
SITES AND THE WIND TRAJECTORY COULD PROVIDE MORE OF A GLANCING SHOT
OF COVERAGE. OBSERVED CLOUDS AT PHN COMBINED WITH THE DTX SOUNDING
SUPPORTS A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED JUST
BELOW 700MB INVERSION PER APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  THIS MIXING
IS SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD AND LIKELY WILL BRING CLEARING INTO THE
CWA INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PART.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WITH DRY
LEVELS ABOVE HAS NOT OCCURRED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  THINKING IS
THOUGH SOME DECENT SUN WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS EVENING...AS NIGHT
FALLS AND INVERSION STEEPENS...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE BROKEN STRATUS DECK AND EVEN MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY WITH LOWS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND A SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S POSSIBLE INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CLEARING
ARRIVES EARLIER.

LONG TERM...

PROMINENT UPSTREAM FEATURE ON NATIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE
STRONG SHEAR MAX PROPAGATING OUT OF AB/SK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SAFELY SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF ANYTHING, IT APPEARS STRONGER THAN MODELED, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ONLY LOCAL IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OFF
OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES OWING TO COMPACTING WAVELENGTH OF THE
RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ENERGY WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC COMBINED
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY ADVECTION WILL SCOUR
OUT LINGERING STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE LAKE HURON SHADOW UNDER
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN WILL FAVOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING FAVORABLE FOR A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU. DESPITE A
CLOUDY START BENEATH WHAT REMAINS OF TODAY`S STRATUS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, THURSDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A SUNNY/COOL DAY BY
AFTERNOON.

SPLIT NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEALTHY EARLY JULY
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
FOLLOWING THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS, BUT THE PREDOMINANTLY
AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB COULD MAKE A HEALTHY RUN TOWARD 40
DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND TO NUDGE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENCE IS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LAKES HANG ON TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN SPITE OF THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND MINUS THE LAKE SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE THUMB.
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT CANADIAN WAVE TRACKING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PV ANOMALY WILL SCRAPE ACROSS LAKE HURON ON
THE 4TH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THRU
NORTHERN MI AND WASH OUT AROUND MID-MICHIGAN. MODELS ACCORDINGLY
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD
BLEED INTO THE TRI-CITIES. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SE MI BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND DTX INDICATE STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT.
THE APX SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE WHILE THE DTX
SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850
MB THAT WILL PROVIDE A DUCT FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MVFR CLOUDS
TO RETURN DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OFF SAGINAW BAY IN THE MBS AREA...THE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL HELP
SPREAD MVFR CEILING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR WHILE BEING BOOSTED BY AN INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. DRY AIR WILL THEN MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH AND BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... MVFR CEILING WILL REACH DTW LATER THAN THE OTHER TERMINAL
SITES AND THE WIND TRAJECTORY COULD PROVIDE MORE OF A GLANCING SHOT
OF COVERAGE. OBSERVED CLOUDS AT PHN COMBINED WITH THE DTX SOUNDING
SUPPORTS A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED JUST
BELOW 700MB INVERSION PER APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  THIS MIXING
IS SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD AND LIKELY WILL BRING CLEARING INTO THE
CWA INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PART.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WITH DRY
LEVELS ABOVE HAS NOT OCCURRED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  THINKING IS
THOUGH SOME DECENT SUN WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS EVENING...AS NIGHT
FALLS AND INVERSION STEEPENS...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE BROKEN STRATUS DECK AND EVEN MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY WITH LOWS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND A SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S POSSIBLE INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CLEARING
ARRIVES EARLIER.

LONG TERM...

PROMINENT UPSTREAM FEATURE ON NATIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE
STRONG SHEAR MAX PROPAGATING OUT OF AB/SK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SAFELY SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF ANYTHING, IT APPEARS STRONGER THAN MODELED, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ONLY LOCAL IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OFF
OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES OWING TO COMPACTING WAVELENGTH OF THE
RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ENERGY WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC COMBINED
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY ADVECTION WILL SCOUR
OUT LINGERING STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE LAKE HURON SHADOW UNDER
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN WILL FAVOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING FAVORABLE FOR A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU. DESPITE A
CLOUDY START BENEATH WHAT REMAINS OF TODAY`S STRATUS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, THURSDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A SUNNY/COOL DAY BY
AFTERNOON.

SPLIT NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEALTHY EARLY JULY
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
FOLLOWING THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS, BUT THE PREDOMINANTLY
AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB COULD MAKE A HEALTHY RUN TOWARD 40
DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND TO NUDGE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENCE IS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LAKES HANG ON TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN SPITE OF THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND MINUS THE LAKE SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE THUMB.
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT CANADIAN WAVE TRACKING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PV ANOMALY WILL SCRAPE ACROSS LAKE HURON ON
THE 4TH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THRU
NORTHERN MI AND WASH OUT AROUND MID-MICHIGAN. MODELS ACCORDINGLY
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD
BLEED INTO THE TRI-CITIES. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SE MI BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 012312
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
712 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT LOW
LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL KEEP MVFR CEILING IN THE FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME AND ARE LIKELY TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WHILE BEING BOOSTED BY AN
INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON. DRY AIR WILL THEN MAKE A
STRONGER PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE HIGH DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED JUST
BELOW 700MB INVERSION PER APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  THIS MIXING
IS SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD AND LIKELY WILL BRING CLEARING INTO THE
CWA INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PART.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WITH DRY
LEVELS ABOVE HAS NOT OCCURRED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  THINKING IS
THOUGH SOME DECENT SUN WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS EVENING...AS NIGHT
FALLS AND INVERSION STEEPENS...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE BROKEN STRATUS DECK AND EVEN MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY WITH LOWS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND A SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S POSSIBLE INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CLEARING
ARRIVES EARLIER.

LONG TERM...

PROMINENT UPSTREAM FEATURE ON NATIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE
STRONG SHEAR MAX PROPAGATING OUT OF AB/SK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SAFELY SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF ANYTHING, IT APPEARS STRONGER THAN MODELED, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ONLY LOCAL IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OFF
OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES OWING TO COMPACTING WAVELENGTH OF THE
RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ENERGY WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC COMBINED
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY ADVECTION WILL SCOUR
OUT LINGERING STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE LAKE HURON SHADOW UNDER
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN WILL FAVOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING FAVORABLE FOR A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU. DESPITE A
CLOUDY START BENEATH WHAT REMAINS OF TODAY`S STRATUS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, THURSDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A SUNNY/COOL DAY BY
AFTERNOON.

SPLIT NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEALTHY EARLY JULY
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
FOLLOWING THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS, BUT THE PREDOMINANTLY
AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB COULD MAKE A HEALTHY RUN TOWARD 40
DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND TO NUDGE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENCE IS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LAKES HANG ON TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN SPITE OF THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND MINUS THE LAKE SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE THUMB.
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT CANADIAN WAVE TRACKING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PV ANOMALY WILL SCRAPE ACROSS LAKE HURON ON
THE 4TH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THRU
NORTHERN MI AND WASH OUT AROUND MID-MICHIGAN. MODELS ACCORDINGLY
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD
BLEED INTO THE TRI-CITIES. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SE MI BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 012312
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
712 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT LOW
LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL KEEP MVFR CEILING IN THE FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME AND ARE LIKELY TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WHILE BEING BOOSTED BY AN
INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON. DRY AIR WILL THEN MAKE A
STRONGER PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE HIGH DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED JUST
BELOW 700MB INVERSION PER APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  THIS MIXING
IS SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD AND LIKELY WILL BRING CLEARING INTO THE
CWA INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PART.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WITH DRY
LEVELS ABOVE HAS NOT OCCURRED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  THINKING IS
THOUGH SOME DECENT SUN WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS EVENING...AS NIGHT
FALLS AND INVERSION STEEPENS...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE BROKEN STRATUS DECK AND EVEN MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY WITH LOWS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND A SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S POSSIBLE INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CLEARING
ARRIVES EARLIER.

LONG TERM...

PROMINENT UPSTREAM FEATURE ON NATIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE
STRONG SHEAR MAX PROPAGATING OUT OF AB/SK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SAFELY SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF ANYTHING, IT APPEARS STRONGER THAN MODELED, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ONLY LOCAL IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OFF
OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES OWING TO COMPACTING WAVELENGTH OF THE
RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ENERGY WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC COMBINED
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY ADVECTION WILL SCOUR
OUT LINGERING STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE LAKE HURON SHADOW UNDER
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN WILL FAVOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING FAVORABLE FOR A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU. DESPITE A
CLOUDY START BENEATH WHAT REMAINS OF TODAY`S STRATUS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, THURSDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A SUNNY/COOL DAY BY
AFTERNOON.

SPLIT NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEALTHY EARLY JULY
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
FOLLOWING THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS, BUT THE PREDOMINANTLY
AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB COULD MAKE A HEALTHY RUN TOWARD 40
DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND TO NUDGE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENCE IS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LAKES HANG ON TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN SPITE OF THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND MINUS THE LAKE SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE THUMB.
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT CANADIAN WAVE TRACKING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PV ANOMALY WILL SCRAPE ACROSS LAKE HURON ON
THE 4TH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THRU
NORTHERN MI AND WASH OUT AROUND MID-MICHIGAN. MODELS ACCORDINGLY
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD
BLEED INTO THE TRI-CITIES. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SE MI BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 012312
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
712 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT LOW
LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL KEEP MVFR CEILING IN THE FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME AND ARE LIKELY TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WHILE BEING BOOSTED BY AN
INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON. DRY AIR WILL THEN MAKE A
STRONGER PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE HIGH DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED JUST
BELOW 700MB INVERSION PER APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  THIS MIXING
IS SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD AND LIKELY WILL BRING CLEARING INTO THE
CWA INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PART.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WITH DRY
LEVELS ABOVE HAS NOT OCCURRED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  THINKING IS
THOUGH SOME DECENT SUN WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS EVENING...AS NIGHT
FALLS AND INVERSION STEEPENS...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE BROKEN STRATUS DECK AND EVEN MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY WITH LOWS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND A SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S POSSIBLE INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CLEARING
ARRIVES EARLIER.

LONG TERM...

PROMINENT UPSTREAM FEATURE ON NATIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE
STRONG SHEAR MAX PROPAGATING OUT OF AB/SK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SAFELY SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF ANYTHING, IT APPEARS STRONGER THAN MODELED, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ONLY LOCAL IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OFF
OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES OWING TO COMPACTING WAVELENGTH OF THE
RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ENERGY WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC COMBINED
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY ADVECTION WILL SCOUR
OUT LINGERING STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE LAKE HURON SHADOW UNDER
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN WILL FAVOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING FAVORABLE FOR A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU. DESPITE A
CLOUDY START BENEATH WHAT REMAINS OF TODAY`S STRATUS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, THURSDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A SUNNY/COOL DAY BY
AFTERNOON.

SPLIT NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEALTHY EARLY JULY
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
FOLLOWING THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS, BUT THE PREDOMINANTLY
AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB COULD MAKE A HEALTHY RUN TOWARD 40
DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND TO NUDGE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENCE IS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LAKES HANG ON TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN SPITE OF THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND MINUS THE LAKE SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE THUMB.
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT CANADIAN WAVE TRACKING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PV ANOMALY WILL SCRAPE ACROSS LAKE HURON ON
THE 4TH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THRU
NORTHERN MI AND WASH OUT AROUND MID-MICHIGAN. MODELS ACCORDINGLY
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD
BLEED INTO THE TRI-CITIES. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SE MI BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 012312
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
712 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BUT LOW
LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL KEEP MVFR CEILING IN THE FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME AND ARE LIKELY TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WHILE BEING BOOSTED BY AN
INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON. DRY AIR WILL THEN MAKE A
STRONGER PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE HIGH DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PROMOTE A CLEARING TREND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED JUST
BELOW 700MB INVERSION PER APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  THIS MIXING
IS SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD AND LIKELY WILL BRING CLEARING INTO THE
CWA INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PART.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WITH DRY
LEVELS ABOVE HAS NOT OCCURRED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  THINKING IS
THOUGH SOME DECENT SUN WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS EVENING...AS NIGHT
FALLS AND INVERSION STEEPENS...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE BROKEN STRATUS DECK AND EVEN MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY WITH LOWS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND A SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S POSSIBLE INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CLEARING
ARRIVES EARLIER.

LONG TERM...

PROMINENT UPSTREAM FEATURE ON NATIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE
STRONG SHEAR MAX PROPAGATING OUT OF AB/SK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SAFELY SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF ANYTHING, IT APPEARS STRONGER THAN MODELED, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ONLY LOCAL IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OFF
OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES OWING TO COMPACTING WAVELENGTH OF THE
RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ENERGY WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC COMBINED
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY ADVECTION WILL SCOUR
OUT LINGERING STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE LAKE HURON SHADOW UNDER
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN WILL FAVOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING FAVORABLE FOR A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU. DESPITE A
CLOUDY START BENEATH WHAT REMAINS OF TODAY`S STRATUS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, THURSDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A SUNNY/COOL DAY BY
AFTERNOON.

SPLIT NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEALTHY EARLY JULY
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
FOLLOWING THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS, BUT THE PREDOMINANTLY
AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB COULD MAKE A HEALTHY RUN TOWARD 40
DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND TO NUDGE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENCE IS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LAKES HANG ON TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN SPITE OF THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND MINUS THE LAKE SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE THUMB.
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT CANADIAN WAVE TRACKING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PV ANOMALY WILL SCRAPE ACROSS LAKE HURON ON
THE 4TH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THRU
NORTHERN MI AND WASH OUT AROUND MID-MICHIGAN. MODELS ACCORDINGLY
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD
BLEED INTO THE TRI-CITIES. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SE MI BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011933
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED JUST
BELOW 700MB INVERSION PER APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  THIS MIXING
IS SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD AND LIKELY WILL BRING CLEARING INTO THE
CWA INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PART.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WITH DRY
LEVELS ABOVE HAS NOT OCCURRED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  THINKING IS
THOUGH SOME DECENT SUN WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS EVENING...AS NIGHT
FALLS AND INVERSION STEEPENS...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE BROKEN STRATUS DECK AND EVEN MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY WITH LOWS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND A SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S POSSIBLE INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CLEARING
ARRIVES EARLIER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

PROMINENT UPSTREAM FEATURE ON NATIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE
STRONG SHEAR MAX PROPAGATING OUT OF AB/SK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SAFELY SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF ANYTHING, IT APPEARS STRONGER THAN MODELED, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ONLY LOCAL IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OFF
OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES OWING TO COMPACTING WAVELENGTH OF THE
RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ENERGY WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC COMBINED
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY ADVECTION WILL SCOUR
OUT LINGERING STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE LAKE HURON SHADOW UNDER
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN WILL FAVOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING FAVORABLE FOR A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU. DESPITE A
CLOUDY START BENEATH WHAT REMAINS OF TODAY`S STRATUS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, THURSDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A SUNNY/COOL DAY BY
AFTERNOON.

SPLIT NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEALTHY EARLY JULY
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
FOLLOWING THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS, BUT THE PREDOMINANTLY
AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB COULD MAKE A HEALTHY RUN TOWARD 40
DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND TO NUDGE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENCE IS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LAKES HANG ON TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN SPITE OF THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND MINUS THE LAKE SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE THUMB.
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT CANADIAN WAVE TRACKING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PV ANOMALY WILL SCRAPE ACROSS LAKE HURON ON
THE 4TH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THRU
NORTHERN MI AND WASH OUT AROUND MID-MICHIGAN. MODELS ACCORDINGLY
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD
BLEED INTO THE TRI-CITIES. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SE MI BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALLOWING DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.  DIURNAL MIXING IS HELPING
SOME WHAT LIFT CEILINGS AND BREAK UP COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAFS SITES BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN SOLID TO THE NORTH.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
CEILINGS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH BEST RESULTS OVER THE YIP/DTW
SITES.  AS NIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS AGAIN LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM BUT ERODE TOWARDS 12Z AS DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORHTEAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011933
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED JUST
BELOW 700MB INVERSION PER APX/DTX 12Z SOUNDING HAS PROVIDED PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HAS KEPT SURFACE TEMPS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOT QUITE AS DEEP.  THIS MIXING
IS SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD AND LIKELY WILL BRING CLEARING INTO THE
CWA INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WESTERN PART.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING WITH DRY
LEVELS ABOVE HAS NOT OCCURRED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  THINKING IS
THOUGH SOME DECENT SUN WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS EVENING...AS NIGHT
FALLS AND INVERSION STEEPENS...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE BROKEN STRATUS DECK AND EVEN MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH TROUGH FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF JULY WITH LOWS MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND A SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S POSSIBLE INTERIOR NORTHERN COUNTIES IF CLEARING
ARRIVES EARLIER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

PROMINENT UPSTREAM FEATURE ON NATIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE
STRONG SHEAR MAX PROPAGATING OUT OF AB/SK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SAFELY SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. IF ANYTHING, IT APPEARS STRONGER THAN MODELED, ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE
ONLY LOCAL IMPACT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OFF
OF THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

BACKGROUND HEIGHT RISES OWING TO COMPACTING WAVELENGTH OF THE
RESIDENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ENERGY WRAPS UP OVER QUEBEC COMBINED
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO EXPAND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY ADVECTION WILL SCOUR
OUT LINGERING STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUPPRESSED HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE LAKE HURON SHADOW UNDER
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. COOLER COLUMN WILL FAVOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING FAVORABLE FOR A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CU. DESPITE A
CLOUDY START BENEATH WHAT REMAINS OF TODAY`S STRATUS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF, THURSDAY WILL SHAPE UP TO BE A SUNNY/COOL DAY BY
AFTERNOON.

SPLIT NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEALTHY EARLY JULY
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S
FOLLOWING THE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS, BUT THE PREDOMINANTLY
AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB COULD MAKE A HEALTHY RUN TOWARD 40
DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND TO NUDGE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

PERSISTENCE IS IN PLAY FOR FRIDAY AS THE LAKES HANG ON TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN SPITE OF THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES
SUGGEST A SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND MINUS THE LAKE SHADOWING EFFECTS IN THE THUMB.
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT CANADIAN WAVE TRACKING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTRODUCE DEEPER LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OF ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOWER BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A PV ANOMALY WILL SCRAPE ACROSS LAKE HURON ON
THE 4TH WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS THRU
NORTHERN MI AND WASH OUT AROUND MID-MICHIGAN. MODELS ACCORDINGLY
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHERN MI AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD
BLEED INTO THE TRI-CITIES. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND ACCORDINGLY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SE MI BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
PERIOD OF ENHANCED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST FLOW INTO SAGINAW BAY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALLOWING DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.  DIURNAL MIXING IS HELPING
SOME WHAT LIFT CEILINGS AND BREAK UP COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAFS SITES BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN SOLID TO THE NORTH.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
CEILINGS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH BEST RESULTS OVER THE YIP/DTW
SITES.  AS NIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS AGAIN LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM BUT ERODE TOWARDS 12Z AS DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORHTEAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011747
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALLOWING DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.  DIURNAL MIXING IS HELPING
SOME WHAT LIFT CEILINGS AND BREAK UP COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAFS SITES BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN SOLID TO THE NORTH.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
CEILINGS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH BEST RESULTS OVER THE YIP/DTW
SITES.  AS NIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS AGAIN LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM BUT ERODE TOWARDS 12Z AS DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORHTEAST.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011747
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALLOWING DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.  DIURNAL MIXING IS HELPING
SOME WHAT LIFT CEILINGS AND BREAK UP COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAFS SITES BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN SOLID TO THE NORTH.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
CEILINGS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH BEST RESULTS OVER THE YIP/DTW
SITES.  AS NIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS AGAIN LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM BUT ERODE TOWARDS 12Z AS DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORHTEAST.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011747
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALLOWING DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.  DIURNAL MIXING IS HELPING
SOME WHAT LIFT CEILINGS AND BREAK UP COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAFS SITES BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN SOLID TO THE NORTH.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
CEILINGS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH BEST RESULTS OVER THE YIP/DTW
SITES.  AS NIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS AGAIN LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM BUT ERODE TOWARDS 12Z AS DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORHTEAST.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011747
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST ALLOWING DRIER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.  DIURNAL MIXING IS HELPING
SOME WHAT LIFT CEILINGS AND BREAK UP COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAFS SITES BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL REMAIN SOLID TO THE NORTH.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND
CEILINGS THE REST OF THE DAY WITH BEST RESULTS OVER THE YIP/DTW
SITES.  AS NIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS AGAIN LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY FORM BUT ERODE TOWARDS 12Z AS DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORHTEAST.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011125
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
725 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO REINVIGORATE THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MAIN 700-
500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT IS STILL HANGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEEPER MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE STATE
VERY QUICKLY...WITHIN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY -SHRA MENTION AS THE ACTIVITY IS
ALREADY PREDOMINATELY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL THEN DRY OUT THE REGION TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
EXISTS NEAR SAGINAW BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON POST 20Z.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SEMICH TONIGHT.

FOR DTW... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXPANSIVE IFR/LIFR STRATUS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE TERMINAL. OPTED TO
INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AGAIN TO OPEN THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND REMAIN BKN MVFR TODAY BEFORE LOWERING BACK
CLOSE TO THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD LATE THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011125
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
725 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO REINVIGORATE THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MAIN 700-
500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT IS STILL HANGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEEPER MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE STATE
VERY QUICKLY...WITHIN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY -SHRA MENTION AS THE ACTIVITY IS
ALREADY PREDOMINATELY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL THEN DRY OUT THE REGION TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
EXISTS NEAR SAGINAW BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON POST 20Z.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SEMICH TONIGHT.

FOR DTW... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXPANSIVE IFR/LIFR STRATUS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE TERMINAL. OPTED TO
INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AGAIN TO OPEN THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND REMAIN BKN MVFR TODAY BEFORE LOWERING BACK
CLOSE TO THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD LATE THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011125
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
725 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO REINVIGORATE THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MAIN 700-
500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT IS STILL HANGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEEPER MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE STATE
VERY QUICKLY...WITHIN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY -SHRA MENTION AS THE ACTIVITY IS
ALREADY PREDOMINATELY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL THEN DRY OUT THE REGION TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
EXISTS NEAR SAGINAW BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON POST 20Z.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SEMICH TONIGHT.

FOR DTW... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXPANSIVE IFR/LIFR STRATUS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE TERMINAL. OPTED TO
INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AGAIN TO OPEN THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND REMAIN BKN MVFR TODAY BEFORE LOWERING BACK
CLOSE TO THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD LATE THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011125
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
725 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO REINVIGORATE THIS MORNING WITHIN THE MAIN 700-
500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT IS STILL HANGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEEPER MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE STATE
VERY QUICKLY...WITHIN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY -SHRA MENTION AS THE ACTIVITY IS
ALREADY PREDOMINATELY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL THEN DRY OUT THE REGION TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
EXISTS NEAR SAGINAW BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON POST 20Z.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SEMICH TONIGHT.

FOR DTW... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXPANSIVE IFR/LIFR STRATUS AT THE DOORSTEP OF THE TERMINAL. OPTED TO
INCLUDE A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AGAIN TO OPEN THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND REMAIN BKN MVFR TODAY BEFORE LOWERING BACK
CLOSE TO THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD LATE THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010756
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF IFR/LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE PROCESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CLEARING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WET GROUND WITHIN THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO MBS AND LINGERING GRADIENT SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FACTORS COMPLICATING COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL COMPONENT OF FOG VERSUS
STRATUS. THE FORECAST SIDES WITH MAINLY STRATUS FOR NOW. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE MVFR/IFR
TRANSITION DURING THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. PLAN
TO MONITOR CEILING TRENDS THAT COULD BRING THE FORECAST DOWN INTO
LIFR BY SUNRISE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010756
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF IFR/LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE PROCESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CLEARING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WET GROUND WITHIN THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO MBS AND LINGERING GRADIENT SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FACTORS COMPLICATING COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL COMPONENT OF FOG VERSUS
STRATUS. THE FORECAST SIDES WITH MAINLY STRATUS FOR NOW. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE MVFR/IFR
TRANSITION DURING THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. PLAN
TO MONITOR CEILING TRENDS THAT COULD BRING THE FORECAST DOWN INTO
LIFR BY SUNRISE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010756
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF IFR/LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE PROCESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CLEARING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WET GROUND WITHIN THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO MBS AND LINGERING GRADIENT SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FACTORS COMPLICATING COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL COMPONENT OF FOG VERSUS
STRATUS. THE FORECAST SIDES WITH MAINLY STRATUS FOR NOW. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE MVFR/IFR
TRANSITION DURING THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. PLAN
TO MONITOR CEILING TRENDS THAT COULD BRING THE FORECAST DOWN INTO
LIFR BY SUNRISE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010756
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AS THE DEEP EASTERN NOAM TROUGH FADES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A RIBBON OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOLID SIGNAL
IN MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...WILL FORCE ENOUGH
ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE TO BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THE
POP CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM BEHIND
AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COAST SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
HURON...ONE LAST ARTIFACT CAST OFF FROM THE CLOSED LOW LAST WEEKEND.
THE MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS IS SHOWN TO HARBOR ENOUGH 850MB RH
WITHIN IT TO BRING A SLIGHT/ISOLATED CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER
POST 20Z TODAY. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME DEPENDENCE ON LOWER
COLUMN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE POOLING OFF OF LAKESHORE
CONVERGENCE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NORTHERN THUMB. BOUNDARY LAYER
MATURATION PROCESSES WILL BE AT PLAY AND SUSPECT THAT SOME
CONDITIONAL PERSISTENCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOL
FOR JULY 1ST...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET DAY WITH JUST SOME CU
FORMING BENEATH AN INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. EAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ON
THE EAST FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKES...LIMITING
MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW AND MID 70S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
ENERGY REMAINING UN-PHASED WITH ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER LOOK A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVERALL ACROSS CANADA...BOTH WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND THEN
WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.
LATEST GFS AND EURO DROP A COLD FRONT AS FAR A NORTHERN MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FIRST TROUGH CLIPS ACROSS
ONTARIO...BEFORE WASHING IT OUT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS...BUT STILL THINK A DRY FORECAST IS WARRANTED.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CANADA OFFERED BY THE 00Z GFS/EURO/GEM SUPPORT
TRENDING POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND UNDER PREDOMINANTLY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD BOOST
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND
INTO THE AREA...TAKING HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROVIDING FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. A QUICK TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN REBUILD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF IFR/LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE PROCESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CLEARING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WET GROUND WITHIN THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO MBS AND LINGERING GRADIENT SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FACTORS COMPLICATING COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL COMPONENT OF FOG VERSUS
STRATUS. THE FORECAST SIDES WITH MAINLY STRATUS FOR NOW. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE MVFR/IFR
TRANSITION DURING THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. PLAN
TO MONITOR CEILING TRENDS THAT COULD BRING THE FORECAST DOWN INTO
LIFR BY SUNRISE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010407
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF IFR/LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE PROCESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CLEARING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WET GROUND WITHIN THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO MBS AND LINGERING GRADIENT SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FACTORS COMPLICATING COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL COMPONENT OF FOG VERSUS
STRATUS. THE FORECAST SIDES WITH MAINLY STRATUS FOR NOW. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE MVFR/IFR
TRANSITION DURING THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. PLAN
TO MONITOR CEILING TRENDS THAT COULD BRING THE FORECAST DOWN INTO
LIFR BY SUNRISE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PROPAGATING
SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MODULATED THE FORCING FIELD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SO FAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE
GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE`S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. POPS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FUNNELING INTO
THE I-69 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. 4KM SPC WRF RUN APPEARS USABLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW WHILE MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO
MAX OUT AROUND 600 J/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE IN A
REGION OF TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CELLS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. MARINE MODIFIED AIR,
AS NOTED STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL DAY, WILL FILTER INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTAINING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...WITH HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE RISE. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
FORECASTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SECOND PV EXTENSION ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY. GOOD 500 MB PACKING
OF TEMPERATURES...BUT GFS INDICATING 925 MB COMPUTED LIS AND
SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINING SOLIDLY POSITIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
NAM LOWERS THE LIS TO AROUND ZERO AS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY...WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CELLS GOING UP....BUT EVEN
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DIFFICULT TIME OVER COMING THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR.

DURING THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
(6.5+ C FROM 700-500 MB NOTED) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL
ANTICYLONIC FLOW WILL BE BUILDING IN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES UNDER 80 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW/LACK OF FORCING...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 12Z EURO TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LOW THROUGH ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN CUT THIS ENERGY OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOWER CHANCE
RANGE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

MARINE...

VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. LITTLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO NORTHEAST FLOW....BUT STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010407
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD AREA OF IFR/LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE PROCESS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CLEARING OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WET GROUND WITHIN THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO MBS AND LINGERING GRADIENT SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FACTORS COMPLICATING COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL COMPONENT OF FOG VERSUS
STRATUS. THE FORECAST SIDES WITH MAINLY STRATUS FOR NOW. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FOR DTW... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE MVFR/IFR
TRANSITION DURING THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. PLAN
TO MONITOR CEILING TRENDS THAT COULD BRING THE FORECAST DOWN INTO
LIFR BY SUNRISE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS.

* LOW FOR CEILING LESS THAN 200 FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PROPAGATING
SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MODULATED THE FORCING FIELD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SO FAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE
GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE`S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. POPS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FUNNELING INTO
THE I-69 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. 4KM SPC WRF RUN APPEARS USABLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW WHILE MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO
MAX OUT AROUND 600 J/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE IN A
REGION OF TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CELLS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. MARINE MODIFIED AIR,
AS NOTED STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL DAY, WILL FILTER INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTAINING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...WITH HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE RISE. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
FORECASTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SECOND PV EXTENSION ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY. GOOD 500 MB PACKING
OF TEMPERATURES...BUT GFS INDICATING 925 MB COMPUTED LIS AND
SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINING SOLIDLY POSITIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
NAM LOWERS THE LIS TO AROUND ZERO AS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY...WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CELLS GOING UP....BUT EVEN
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DIFFICULT TIME OVER COMING THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR.

DURING THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
(6.5+ C FROM 700-500 MB NOTED) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL
ANTICYLONIC FLOW WILL BE BUILDING IN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES UNDER 80 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW/LACK OF FORCING...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 12Z EURO TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LOW THROUGH ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN CUT THIS ENERGY OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOWER CHANCE
RANGE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

MARINE...

VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. LITTLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO NORTHEAST FLOW....BUT STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 302352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID
EVENING AND ALLOW ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING INTO LAKE ERIE. WEAK
NORTHWEST WIND LEFT BEHIND WILL CARRY IN AN AIR MASS PRONE TO
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLIER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER SE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
WHILE COVERAGE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND
MOVING AWAY. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF MVFR/IFR TRANSITION LATER INTO
THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ONCE DEVELOPED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PROPAGATING
SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MODULATED THE FORCING FIELD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SO FAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE
GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE`S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. POPS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FUNNELING INTO
THE I-69 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. 4KM SPC WRF RUN APPEARS USABLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW WHILE MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO
MAX OUT AROUND 600 J/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE IN A
REGION OF TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CELLS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. MARINE MODIFIED AIR,
AS NOTED STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL DAY, WILL FILTER INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTAINING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...WITH HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE RISE. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
FORECASTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SECOND PV EXTENSION ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY. GOOD 500 MB PACKING
OF TEMPERATURES...BUT GFS INDICATING 925 MB COMPUTED LIS AND
SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINING SOLIDLY POSITIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
NAM LOWERS THE LIS TO AROUND ZERO AS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY...WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CELLS GOING UP....BUT EVEN
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DIFFICULT TIME OVER COMING THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR.

DURING THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
(6.5+ C FROM 700-500 MB NOTED) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL
ANTICYLONIC FLOW WILL BE BUILDING IN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES UNDER 80 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW/LACK OF FORCING...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 12Z EURO TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LOW THROUGH ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN CUT THIS ENERGY OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOWER CHANCE
RANGE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

MARINE...

VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. LITTLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO NORTHEAST FLOW....BUT STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 302352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID
EVENING AND ALLOW ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING INTO LAKE ERIE. WEAK
NORTHWEST WIND LEFT BEHIND WILL CARRY IN AN AIR MASS PRONE TO
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLIER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER SE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
WHILE COVERAGE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND
MOVING AWAY. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF MVFR/IFR TRANSITION LATER INTO
THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ONCE DEVELOPED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PROPAGATING
SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MODULATED THE FORCING FIELD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SO FAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE
GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE`S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. POPS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FUNNELING INTO
THE I-69 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. 4KM SPC WRF RUN APPEARS USABLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW WHILE MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO
MAX OUT AROUND 600 J/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE IN A
REGION OF TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CELLS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. MARINE MODIFIED AIR,
AS NOTED STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL DAY, WILL FILTER INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTAINING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...WITH HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE RISE. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
FORECASTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SECOND PV EXTENSION ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY. GOOD 500 MB PACKING
OF TEMPERATURES...BUT GFS INDICATING 925 MB COMPUTED LIS AND
SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINING SOLIDLY POSITIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
NAM LOWERS THE LIS TO AROUND ZERO AS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY...WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CELLS GOING UP....BUT EVEN
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DIFFICULT TIME OVER COMING THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR.

DURING THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
(6.5+ C FROM 700-500 MB NOTED) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL
ANTICYLONIC FLOW WILL BE BUILDING IN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES UNDER 80 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW/LACK OF FORCING...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 12Z EURO TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LOW THROUGH ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN CUT THIS ENERGY OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOWER CHANCE
RANGE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

MARINE...

VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. LITTLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO NORTHEAST FLOW....BUT STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 302352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID
EVENING AND ALLOW ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING INTO LAKE ERIE. WEAK
NORTHWEST WIND LEFT BEHIND WILL CARRY IN AN AIR MASS PRONE TO
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLIER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER SE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
WHILE COVERAGE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND
MOVING AWAY. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF MVFR/IFR TRANSITION LATER INTO
THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ONCE DEVELOPED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PROPAGATING
SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MODULATED THE FORCING FIELD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SO FAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE
GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE`S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. POPS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FUNNELING INTO
THE I-69 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. 4KM SPC WRF RUN APPEARS USABLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW WHILE MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO
MAX OUT AROUND 600 J/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE IN A
REGION OF TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CELLS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. MARINE MODIFIED AIR,
AS NOTED STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL DAY, WILL FILTER INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTAINING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...WITH HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE RISE. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
FORECASTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SECOND PV EXTENSION ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY. GOOD 500 MB PACKING
OF TEMPERATURES...BUT GFS INDICATING 925 MB COMPUTED LIS AND
SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINING SOLIDLY POSITIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
NAM LOWERS THE LIS TO AROUND ZERO AS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY...WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CELLS GOING UP....BUT EVEN
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DIFFICULT TIME OVER COMING THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR.

DURING THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
(6.5+ C FROM 700-500 MB NOTED) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL
ANTICYLONIC FLOW WILL BE BUILDING IN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES UNDER 80 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW/LACK OF FORCING...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 12Z EURO TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LOW THROUGH ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN CUT THIS ENERGY OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOWER CHANCE
RANGE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

MARINE...

VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. LITTLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO NORTHEAST FLOW....BUT STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 302352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
752 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID
EVENING AND ALLOW ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING INTO LAKE ERIE. WEAK
NORTHWEST WIND LEFT BEHIND WILL CARRY IN AN AIR MASS PRONE TO
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLIER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVER SE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING WILL THEN HELP LIFT CEILING INTO VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
WHILE COVERAGE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND
MOVING AWAY. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF MVFR/IFR TRANSITION LATER INTO
THE NIGHT THEN LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ONCE DEVELOPED.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PROPAGATING
SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MODULATED THE FORCING FIELD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SO FAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE
GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE`S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. POPS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FUNNELING INTO
THE I-69 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. 4KM SPC WRF RUN APPEARS USABLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW WHILE MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO
MAX OUT AROUND 600 J/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE IN A
REGION OF TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CELLS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. MARINE MODIFIED AIR,
AS NOTED STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL DAY, WILL FILTER INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTAINING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...WITH HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE RISE. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
FORECASTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SECOND PV EXTENSION ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY. GOOD 500 MB PACKING
OF TEMPERATURES...BUT GFS INDICATING 925 MB COMPUTED LIS AND
SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINING SOLIDLY POSITIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
NAM LOWERS THE LIS TO AROUND ZERO AS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY...WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CELLS GOING UP....BUT EVEN
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DIFFICULT TIME OVER COMING THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR.

DURING THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
(6.5+ C FROM 700-500 MB NOTED) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL
ANTICYLONIC FLOW WILL BE BUILDING IN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES UNDER 80 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW/LACK OF FORCING...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 12Z EURO TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LOW THROUGH ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN CUT THIS ENERGY OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOWER CHANCE
RANGE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

MARINE...

VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. LITTLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO NORTHEAST FLOW....BUT STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301926
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PROPAGATING
SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MODULATED THE FORCING FIELD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SO FAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE
GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE`S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. POPS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FUNNELING INTO
THE I-69 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. 4KM SPC WRF RUN APPEARS USABLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW WHILE MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO
MAX OUT AROUND 600 J/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE IN A
REGION OF TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CELLS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. MARINE MODIFIED AIR,
AS NOTED STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL DAY, WILL FILTER INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTAINING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...WITH HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE RISE. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
FORECASTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SECOND PV EXTENSION ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY. GOOD 500 MB PACKING
OF TEMPERATURES...BUT GFS INDICATING 925 MB COMPUTED LIS AND
SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINING SOLIDLY POSITIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
NAM LOWERS THE LIS TO AROUND ZERO AS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY...WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CELLS GOING UP....BUT EVEN
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DIFFICULT TIME OVER COMING THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR.

DURING THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
(6.5+ C FROM 700-500 MB NOTED) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL
ANTICYLONIC FLOW WILL BE BUILDING IN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES UNDER 80 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW/LACK OF FORCING...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 12Z EURO TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LOW THROUGH ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN CUT THIS ENERGY OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOWER CHANCE
RANGE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

&&

.MARINE...

VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. LITTLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO NORTHEAST FLOW....BUT STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 130 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER
A CANOPY OF EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN REMAIN ALIGNED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE LOW
MOVING DOWN CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY, SOME EASTWARD
EXPANSION AND PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING TAKE OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW INSTABILITY WARRANTED REMOVAL OF THUNDER FOR KMBS/FNT BUT LEFT
THE FORECAST IN TACT ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
LOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS. COMBINATION OF SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD IFR
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINS 20-23Z THIS EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOWEST CEILINGS...BUT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DID WARRANT INTRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR FOR
MOST OF THE MID/LATE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 301926
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PROPAGATING
SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MODULATED THE FORCING FIELD OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SO FAR TODAY. AS A RESULT, THE
GENESIS REGION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE`S PSEUDO-WARM FRONT. POPS HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE WHICH SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FUNNELING INTO
THE I-69 TO I-94 CORRIDOR. 4KM SPC WRF RUN APPEARS USABLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW WHILE MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO
MAX OUT AROUND 600 J/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD EVOLVE IN A
REGION OF TRAINING OF SLOW MOVING CELLS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. MARINE MODIFIED AIR,
AS NOTED STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALL DAY, WILL FILTER INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SUPPORTING LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONTAINING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOLDING OVER...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO BE UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THIS EVENINGS TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE...WITH HEIGHTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE ON THE RISE. HOWEVER...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IS
FORECASTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SECOND PV EXTENSION ROTATING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY. GOOD 500 MB PACKING
OF TEMPERATURES...BUT GFS INDICATING 925 MB COMPUTED LIS AND
SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINING SOLIDLY POSITIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
NAM LOWERS THE LIS TO AROUND ZERO AS WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS.
WITH POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY...WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CELLS GOING UP....BUT EVEN
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW DIFFICULT TIME OVER COMING THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR.

DURING THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP
(6.5+ C FROM 700-500 MB NOTED) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LOW LEVEL
ANTICYLONIC FLOW WILL BE BUILDING IN...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) EXPECTED TO HOLD MAXES UNDER 80 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C.

WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW/LACK OF FORCING...LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS. MODELS DISAGREE
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 12Z EURO TRACKING A STRONG UPPER
LOW THROUGH ONTARIO WHILE GFS/GEFS MEAN CUT THIS ENERGY OFF OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOWER CHANCE
RANGE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED.

&&

.MARINE...

VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. LITTLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO NORTHEAST FLOW....BUT STILL HOLDING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 130 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER
A CANOPY OF EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN REMAIN ALIGNED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE LOW
MOVING DOWN CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY, SOME EASTWARD
EXPANSION AND PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING TAKE OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW INSTABILITY WARRANTED REMOVAL OF THUNDER FOR KMBS/FNT BUT LEFT
THE FORECAST IN TACT ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
LOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS. COMBINATION OF SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD IFR
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINS 20-23Z THIS EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOWEST CEILINGS...BUT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DID WARRANT INTRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR FOR
MOST OF THE MID/LATE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301730
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER
A CANOPY OF EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN REMAIN ALIGNED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE LOW
MOVING DOWN CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY, SOME EASTWARD
EXPANSION AND PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING TAKE OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW INSTABILITY WARRANTED REMOVAL OF THUNDER FOR KMBS/FNT BUT LEFT
THE FORECAST IN TACT ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
LOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS. COMBINATION OF SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD IFR
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINS 20-23Z THIS EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOWEST CEILINGS...BUT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DID WARRANT INTRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR FOR
MOST OF THE MID/LATE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATE...

SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
FORCING WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 18-00Z WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSITY/COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE APPEARS MORE DEPENDENT ON
INSTABILITY WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST.
NEXT 90 MINUTES SHOULD BE TELLING WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO MCV OVER NORTHERN
IN/OH IS SURE TO LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL. MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS
HAS BEEN MADE TO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M59, AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 301730
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER
A CANOPY OF EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN REMAIN ALIGNED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE LOW
MOVING DOWN CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY, SOME EASTWARD
EXPANSION AND PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING TAKE OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW INSTABILITY WARRANTED REMOVAL OF THUNDER FOR KMBS/FNT BUT LEFT
THE FORECAST IN TACT ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
LOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS. COMBINATION OF SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD IFR
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINS 20-23Z THIS EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOWEST CEILINGS...BUT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DID WARRANT INTRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR FOR
MOST OF THE MID/LATE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATE...

SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
FORCING WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 18-00Z WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSITY/COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE APPEARS MORE DEPENDENT ON
INSTABILITY WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST.
NEXT 90 MINUTES SHOULD BE TELLING WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO MCV OVER NORTHERN
IN/OH IS SURE TO LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL. MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS
HAS BEEN MADE TO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M59, AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301730
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER
A CANOPY OF EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN REMAIN ALIGNED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE LOW
MOVING DOWN CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY, SOME EASTWARD
EXPANSION AND PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING TAKE OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW INSTABILITY WARRANTED REMOVAL OF THUNDER FOR KMBS/FNT BUT LEFT
THE FORECAST IN TACT ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
LOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS. COMBINATION OF SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD IFR
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINS 20-23Z THIS EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOWEST CEILINGS...BUT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DID WARRANT INTRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR FOR
MOST OF THE MID/LATE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATE...

SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
FORCING WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 18-00Z WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSITY/COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE APPEARS MORE DEPENDENT ON
INSTABILITY WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST.
NEXT 90 MINUTES SHOULD BE TELLING WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO MCV OVER NORTHERN
IN/OH IS SURE TO LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL. MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS
HAS BEEN MADE TO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M59, AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301730
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
130 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER
A CANOPY OF EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN REMAIN ALIGNED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE LOW
MOVING DOWN CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY, SOME EASTWARD
EXPANSION AND PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING TAKE OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW INSTABILITY WARRANTED REMOVAL OF THUNDER FOR KMBS/FNT BUT LEFT
THE FORECAST IN TACT ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS
LOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS. COMBINATION OF SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MARINE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD IFR
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINS 20-23Z THIS EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOWEST CEILINGS...BUT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS DID WARRANT INTRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR FOR
MOST OF THE MID/LATE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR TSTORM IMPACTING KDTW AIRSPACE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATE...

SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
FORCING WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 18-00Z WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSITY/COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE APPEARS MORE DEPENDENT ON
INSTABILITY WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST.
NEXT 90 MINUTES SHOULD BE TELLING WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO MCV OVER NORTHERN
IN/OH IS SURE TO LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL. MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS
HAS BEEN MADE TO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M59, AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 301538
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
FORCING WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 18-00Z WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSITY/COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE APPEARS MORE DEPENDENT ON
INSTABILITY WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST.
NEXT 90 MINUTES SHOULD BE TELLING WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO MCV OVER NORTHERN
IN/OH IS SURE TO LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL. MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS
HAS BEEN MADE TO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M59, AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 723 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MOISTURE ORPHANED OFF OF THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR LAKE ERIE
HAS STREAMED NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CIGS HEIGHTS ACROSS THE TERMINAL HAVE PREDOMINATELY REMAINED
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD TO KMBS LATE
THIS MORNING AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A NUMEROUS/LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO TANGIBLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT...WITH
CURRENT PROGS SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPATION WILL EXIST IN
THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM BRINGS A DIFFICULTY IN
PINPOINTING PRECIPATION CHANCES. DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR CIGS BY 10Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301538
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
FORCING WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 18-00Z WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSITY/COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE APPEARS MORE DEPENDENT ON
INSTABILITY WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST.
NEXT 90 MINUTES SHOULD BE TELLING WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO MCV OVER NORTHERN
IN/OH IS SURE TO LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL. MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS
HAS BEEN MADE TO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M59, AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 723 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MOISTURE ORPHANED OFF OF THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR LAKE ERIE
HAS STREAMED NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CIGS HEIGHTS ACROSS THE TERMINAL HAVE PREDOMINATELY REMAINED
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD TO KMBS LATE
THIS MORNING AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A NUMEROUS/LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO TANGIBLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT...WITH
CURRENT PROGS SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPATION WILL EXIST IN
THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM BRINGS A DIFFICULTY IN
PINPOINTING PRECIPATION CHANCES. DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR CIGS BY 10Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 301538
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
FORCING WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 18-00Z WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSITY/COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE APPEARS MORE DEPENDENT ON
INSTABILITY WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST.
NEXT 90 MINUTES SHOULD BE TELLING WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO MCV OVER NORTHERN
IN/OH IS SURE TO LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL. MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS
HAS BEEN MADE TO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M59, AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 723 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MOISTURE ORPHANED OFF OF THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR LAKE ERIE
HAS STREAMED NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CIGS HEIGHTS ACROSS THE TERMINAL HAVE PREDOMINATELY REMAINED
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD TO KMBS LATE
THIS MORNING AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A NUMEROUS/LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO TANGIBLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT...WITH
CURRENT PROGS SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPATION WILL EXIST IN
THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM BRINGS A DIFFICULTY IN
PINPOINTING PRECIPATION CHANCES. DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR CIGS BY 10Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301538
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWER COVERAGE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
FORCING WILL WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA 18-00Z WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO INTENSITY/COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE APPEARS MORE DEPENDENT ON
INSTABILITY WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IS FORECAST.
NEXT 90 MINUTES SHOULD BE TELLING WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD ENHANCEMENT DUE TO MCV OVER NORTHERN
IN/OH IS SURE TO LIMIT TSTORM POTENTIAL. MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS
HAS BEEN MADE TO SIGNIFICANTLY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS FOR THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M59, AND LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 723 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MOISTURE ORPHANED OFF OF THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR LAKE ERIE
HAS STREAMED NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CIGS HEIGHTS ACROSS THE TERMINAL HAVE PREDOMINATELY REMAINED
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD TO KMBS LATE
THIS MORNING AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A NUMEROUS/LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO TANGIBLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT...WITH
CURRENT PROGS SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPATION WILL EXIST IN
THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM BRINGS A DIFFICULTY IN
PINPOINTING PRECIPATION CHANCES. DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR CIGS BY 10Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 301123
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
723 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.AVIATION...

MOISTURE ORPHANED OFF OF THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR LAKE ERIE
HAS STREAMED NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CIGS HEIGHTS ACROSS THE TERMINAL HAVE PREDOMINATELY REMAINED
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD TO KMBS LATE
THIS MORNING AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A NUMEROUS/LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO TANGIBLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT...WITH
CURRENT PROGS SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPATION WILL EXIST IN
THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM BRINGS A DIFFICULTY IN
PINPOINTING PRECIPATION CHANCES. DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR CIGS BY 10Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 301123
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
723 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.AVIATION...

MOISTURE ORPHANED OFF OF THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR LAKE ERIE
HAS STREAMED NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CIGS HEIGHTS ACROSS THE TERMINAL HAVE PREDOMINATELY REMAINED
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHWARD TO KMBS LATE
THIS MORNING AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A SHORTWAVE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND A NUMEROUS/LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NO TANGIBLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT...WITH
CURRENT PROGS SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPATION WILL EXIST IN
THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM BRINGS A DIFFICULTY IN
PINPOINTING PRECIPATION CHANCES. DEEPER MOISTURE PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR CIGS BY 10Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 300754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL S-SE WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING A STRATUS DECK
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO FNT AND MBS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE CLOUDS TO A VFR
STRATO CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO WITH
IFR CIGS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT EAST OF METRO DETROIT 08-12Z AND WILL SUPPLY SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT METRO EARLY TUES MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 300754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL S-SE WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING A STRATUS DECK
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO FNT AND MBS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE CLOUDS TO A VFR
STRATO CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO WITH
IFR CIGS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT EAST OF METRO DETROIT 08-12Z AND WILL SUPPLY SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT METRO EARLY TUES MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 300754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL S-SE WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING A STRATUS DECK
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO FNT AND MBS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE CLOUDS TO A VFR
STRATO CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO WITH
IFR CIGS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT EAST OF METRO DETROIT 08-12Z AND WILL SUPPLY SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT METRO EARLY TUES MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 300754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE +100 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JETLET CASCADING DOWN THE
FORWARD FACE OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING WILL CAUSE A RAPID REINFORCEMENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE MODELS CLEARLY DEFINE A TIGHT
SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF U/L JET MAXIMUM OVER
PORTIONS OF WI AND IL BY 18Z. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
REPOSITIONING TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE STRONGER LAKE
SUPERIOR/U.P. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

A WEAKER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE REFLECTION OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS PAST EVENING HAS LARGELY BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED AN OLD NEAR SURFACE OCCLUSION OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DETROIT AREA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THIS THETA E RIBBON IN ADDITION
TO LOW CLOUD STRATUS. RADAR EVOLUTION THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE
ADVECTING FARTHER NORTHWARD.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHERN CWA
BY THE LATE MORNING...POST 15Z. SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM DATSETS IN
ADDITION TO FCST SOUNDING ANALSYIS SUGGESTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INITIATE OFF OF THIS MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THESE INTIAL SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SHALLOW...WITH TOPS AT 15
KFT AGL.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY COLLECTED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
GRADIENT WILL THEN BE KICKED EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE OF DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL THEN ADD
A SIGNIFICANT COMPOMENT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH DETAIL UNDER LITTLE TO NO CAPPING AND
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...THERE APPEARS
TO BE A STRONG DEPENDENCE FOR CONVECTION BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND THE TRI CITIES STAND
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO WITNESS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. A MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE THUMB DOWN INTO THE DETROIT METRO AREA
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE DEWPOINT RESPONSE THERE. AN INCREASE IN THE
MEAN 600-400MB MOISTURE CONINCIDENT TO THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS
GOING WITH A LIKELY/NUMEROUS POP THIS AFTERNOON. TALL SKINNY CAPE
WITH SUB 400 J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTS NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS AGAIN IN PLAY...WITH VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION PREDICTED. COLUMN MEAN WIND SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE
CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SW TO NE AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.
WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORM MOTION TO BECOME
MODULATED BY SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY CENTERS. IN FACT...COULD ACTUALLY
SEEM SOME MINOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TOWARDS EVENING. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
IS OVER CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE RAISN RIVER BASIN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CARRY A RAIN CHANCE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ENDS THE POTENTIAL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE U.P.
AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA
AND DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BUILD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY LOOK BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...AND EVEN THEN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK HIGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL CAP TO REMAIN IN PLACE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
PATTERN SHIFTS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ALL SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
ENERGY DIFFERENTLY...00Z GFS SLIDES IT THROUGH ONTARIO...12Z EURO
DROPS IT ACROSS MICHIGAN...AND THE 00Z GEM DROPS IT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS...BUT WITH POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND A WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NUDGING TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. GFS/EURO
BOTH ARE KEYING IN ON AN UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH TIMING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE MONDAY OR TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A PUSH OF 15 KNOT WEST WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE
QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE LOW LEVEL S-SE WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING A STRATUS DECK
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO FNT AND MBS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE CLOUDS TO A VFR
STRATO CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO WITH
IFR CIGS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT EAST OF METRO DETROIT 08-12Z AND WILL SUPPLY SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT METRO EARLY TUES MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 300352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

THE LOW LEVEL S-SE WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING A STRATUS DECK
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO FNT AND MBS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE CLOUDS TO A VFR
STRATO CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO WITH
IFR CIGS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT EAST OF METRO DETROIT 08-12Z AND WILL SUPPLY SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT METRO EARLY TUES MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 654 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATE...

EARLIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER SE MI. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW ROTATING ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS METRO DETROIT
AND POINTS SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. IN LIGHT OF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REDUCE
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND LOWER POPS SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SUNNY START TO THE DAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES OVER TRI-CITIES REGION...FLINT VICINITY...AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALLOWING SOME (SCT) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN/GREAT LAKES...WITH SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVELS...AS 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A 500 MB TEMP OF -15 C. ONE SHORTWAVE WHICH
PRODUCED HEAVIER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TODAY
HAS PASSED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SECOND PV MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE NEAR
CHICAGO WILL SKIM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...AND 850-700
MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. SURFACE DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE THE BOTTOM FOR MINS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH
MANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN AND THESE SMALLER WAVES THROUGHOUT THE
PAST WEEKEND AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE HARD TO GO WITH POPS HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR ANY PERIOD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVES AND SFC FEATURES START TO
SHOW THEMSELVES AND THEIR LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL MI TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TRACK OF AN EXITING SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AND PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
WHICH MAY PUT AN EARLIER END TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS THOUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATE SFC
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 18-00Z WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
CAPE PEAKING UNDER 500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POP
UP...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT OVERWHELMING...PWATS ON WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MID MI WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY THE TROUGH WILL NOT IGNITE SHOWERS
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
SO PRECIP SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.

BAGGY LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THURSDAY WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL
A MORE COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL IS DEPICTED WITH ANY SORT OF
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINTING AT UPPER FLOW REORGANIZING
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR
INCREASED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DROP INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE RETURNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 300352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

THE LOW LEVEL S-SE WINDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING A STRATUS DECK
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH INTO FNT AND MBS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK UNDER A
SHALLOW INVERSION BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE CLOUDS TO A VFR
STRATO CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO WITH
IFR CIGS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT EAST OF METRO DETROIT 08-12Z AND WILL SUPPLY SOME ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT METRO EARLY TUES MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND TUES MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 654 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATE...

EARLIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER SE MI. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW ROTATING ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS METRO DETROIT
AND POINTS SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. IN LIGHT OF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REDUCE
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND LOWER POPS SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SUNNY START TO THE DAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES OVER TRI-CITIES REGION...FLINT VICINITY...AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALLOWING SOME (SCT) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN/GREAT LAKES...WITH SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVELS...AS 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A 500 MB TEMP OF -15 C. ONE SHORTWAVE WHICH
PRODUCED HEAVIER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TODAY
HAS PASSED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SECOND PV MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE NEAR
CHICAGO WILL SKIM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...AND 850-700
MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. SURFACE DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE THE BOTTOM FOR MINS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH
MANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN AND THESE SMALLER WAVES THROUGHOUT THE
PAST WEEKEND AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE HARD TO GO WITH POPS HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR ANY PERIOD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVES AND SFC FEATURES START TO
SHOW THEMSELVES AND THEIR LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL MI TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TRACK OF AN EXITING SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AND PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
WHICH MAY PUT AN EARLIER END TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS THOUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATE SFC
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 18-00Z WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
CAPE PEAKING UNDER 500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POP
UP...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT OVERWHELMING...PWATS ON WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MID MI WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY THE TROUGH WILL NOT IGNITE SHOWERS
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
SO PRECIP SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.

BAGGY LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THURSDAY WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL
A MORE COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL IS DEPICTED WITH ANY SORT OF
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINTING AT UPPER FLOW REORGANIZING
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR
INCREASED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DROP INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE RETURNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 292304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF MBS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LARGELY EXHAUSTED. A RECENT CLEARING TREND
SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A LITTLE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH...OPENING
THE DOOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO
TUES MORNING...MAINLY FROM FNT SOUTH.

FOR DTW...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW TRAVERSING THE MI/IN BORDER
WILL TRANSPORT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO METRO DETROIT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED. THUS...THE CHANCE FOR MUCH IF ANY RAIN
HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT. SINCE THE FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WAS PREDICATED ON A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...CIGS WILL BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THERE IS STILL AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO
METRO OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL OFFER A POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR
CONDTIONS LATE. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS RATHER LOW ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 654 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATE...

EARLIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER SE MI. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW ROTATING ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS METRO DETROIT
AND POINTS SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. IN LIGHT OF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REDUCE
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND LOWER POPS SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SUNNY START TO THE DAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES OVER TRI-CITIES REGION...FLINT VICINITY...AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALLOWING SOME (SCT) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN/GREAT LAKES...WITH SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVELS...AS 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A 500 MB TEMP OF -15 C. ONE SHORTWAVE WHICH
PRODUCED HEAVIER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TODAY
HAS PASSED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SECOND PV MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE NEAR
CHICAGO WILL SKIM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...AND 850-700
MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. SURFACE DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE THE BOTTOM FOR MINS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH
MANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN AND THESE SMALLER WAVES THROUGHOUT THE
PAST WEEKEND AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE HARD TO GO WITH POPS HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR ANY PERIOD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVES AND SFC FEATURES START TO
SHOW THEMSELVES AND THEIR LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL MI TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TRACK OF AN EXITING SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AND PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
WHICH MAY PUT AN EARLIER END TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS THOUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATE SFC
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 18-00Z WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
CAPE PEAKING UNDER 500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POP
UP...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT OVERWHELMING...PWATS ON WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MID MI WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY THE TROUGH WILL NOT IGNITE SHOWERS
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
SO PRECIP SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.

BAGGY LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THURSDAY WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL
A MORE COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL IS DEPICTED WITH ANY SORT OF
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINTING AT UPPER FLOW REORGANIZING
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR
INCREASED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DROP INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE RETURNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 292304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

THE REMNANTS OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF MBS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LARGELY EXHAUSTED. A RECENT CLEARING TREND
SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A LITTLE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH...OPENING
THE DOOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO
TUES MORNING...MAINLY FROM FNT SOUTH.

FOR DTW...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW TRAVERSING THE MI/IN BORDER
WILL TRANSPORT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO METRO DETROIT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED. THUS...THE CHANCE FOR MUCH IF ANY RAIN
HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT. SINCE THE FORECAST OF EXTENSIVE
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WAS PREDICATED ON A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...CIGS WILL BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THERE IS STILL AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ROTATE INTO
METRO OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL OFFER A POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR
CONDTIONS LATE. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS RATHER LOW ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 654 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATE...

EARLIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER SE MI. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW ROTATING ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS METRO DETROIT
AND POINTS SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. IN LIGHT OF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REDUCE
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND LOWER POPS SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SUNNY START TO THE DAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES OVER TRI-CITIES REGION...FLINT VICINITY...AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALLOWING SOME (SCT) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN/GREAT LAKES...WITH SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVELS...AS 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A 500 MB TEMP OF -15 C. ONE SHORTWAVE WHICH
PRODUCED HEAVIER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TODAY
HAS PASSED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SECOND PV MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE NEAR
CHICAGO WILL SKIM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...AND 850-700
MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. SURFACE DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE THE BOTTOM FOR MINS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH
MANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN AND THESE SMALLER WAVES THROUGHOUT THE
PAST WEEKEND AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE HARD TO GO WITH POPS HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR ANY PERIOD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVES AND SFC FEATURES START TO
SHOW THEMSELVES AND THEIR LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL MI TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TRACK OF AN EXITING SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AND PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
WHICH MAY PUT AN EARLIER END TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS THOUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATE SFC
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 18-00Z WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
CAPE PEAKING UNDER 500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POP
UP...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT OVERWHELMING...PWATS ON WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MID MI WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY THE TROUGH WILL NOT IGNITE SHOWERS
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
SO PRECIP SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.

BAGGY LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THURSDAY WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL
A MORE COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL IS DEPICTED WITH ANY SORT OF
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINTING AT UPPER FLOW REORGANIZING
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR
INCREASED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DROP INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE RETURNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 292254
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

EARLIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE REGION...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER SE MI. A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW ROTATING ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS METRO DETROIT
AND POINTS SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. IN LIGHT OF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REDUCE
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND LOWER POPS SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 322 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SUNNY START TO THE DAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES OVER TRI-CITIES REGION...FLINT VICINITY...AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALLOWING SOME (SCT) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN/GREAT LAKES...WITH SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVELS...AS 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A 500 MB TEMP OF -15 C. ONE SHORTWAVE WHICH
PRODUCED HEAVIER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TODAY
HAS PASSED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SECOND PV MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE NEAR
CHICAGO WILL SKIM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...AND 850-700
MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. SURFACE DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE THE BOTTOM FOR MINS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH
MANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN AND THESE SMALLER WAVES THROUGHOUT THE
PAST WEEKEND AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE HARD TO GO WITH POPS HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR ANY PERIOD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVES AND SFC FEATURES START TO
SHOW THEMSELVES AND THEIR LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL MI TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TRACK OF AN EXITING SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AND PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
WHICH MAY PUT AN EARLIER END TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS THOUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATE SFC
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 18-00Z WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
CAPE PEAKING UNDER 500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POP
UP...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT OVERWHELMING...PWATS ON WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MID MI WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY THE TROUGH WILL NOT IGNITE SHOWERS
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
SO PRECIP SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.

BAGGY LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THURSDAY WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL
A MORE COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL IS DEPICTED WITH ANY SORT OF
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINTING AT UPPER FLOW REORGANIZING
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR
INCREASED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DROP INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE RETURNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1251 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) LOOKS TO BE LOW IN COVERAGE. STILL HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH EVEN
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
AROUND WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. WITH WEAK CIRCULATION
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS LOOK SLOW TO
LIFT/EXIT DURING TUESDAY...WITH THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* VERY LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 291922
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SUNNY START TO THE DAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES OVER TRI-CITIES REGION...FLINT VICINITY...AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALLOWING SOME (SCT) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN/GREAT LAKES...WITH SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVELS...AS 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A 500 MB TEMP OF -15 C. ONE SHORTWAVE WHICH
PRODUCED HEAVIER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TODAY
HAS PASSED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SECOND PV MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE NEAR
CHICAGO WILL SKIM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...AND 850-700
MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. SURFACE DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE THE BOTTOM FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH
MANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN AND THESE SMALLER WAVES THROUGHOUT THE
PAST WEEKEND AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE HARD TO GO WITH POPS HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR ANY PERIOD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVES AND SFC FEATURES START TO
SHOW THEMSELVES AND THEIR LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL MI TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TRACK OF AN EXITING SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AND PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
WHICH MAY PUT AN EARLIER END TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS THOUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATE SFC
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 18-00Z WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
CAPE PEAKING UNDER 500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POP
UP...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT OVERWHELMING...PWATS ON WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MID MI WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY THE TROUGH WILL NOT IGNITE SHOWERS
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
SO PRECIP SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.

BAGGY LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THURSDAY WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL
A MORE COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL IS DEPICTED WITH ANY SORT OF
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINTING AT UPPER FLOW REORGANIZING
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR
INCREASED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DROP INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE RETURNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1251 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) LOOKS TO BE LOW IN COVERAGE. STILL HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH EVEN
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
AROUND WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. WITH WEAK CIRCULATION
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS LOOK SLOW TO
LIFT/EXIT DURING TUESDAY...WITH THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* VERY LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT
 TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291922
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SUNNY START TO THE DAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES OVER TRI-CITIES REGION...FLINT VICINITY...AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALLOWING SOME (SCT) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN/GREAT LAKES...WITH SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVELS...AS 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A 500 MB TEMP OF -15 C. ONE SHORTWAVE WHICH
PRODUCED HEAVIER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TODAY
HAS PASSED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SECOND PV MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE NEAR
CHICAGO WILL SKIM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...AND 850-700
MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. SURFACE DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE THE BOTTOM FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH
MANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN AND THESE SMALLER WAVES THROUGHOUT THE
PAST WEEKEND AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE HARD TO GO WITH POPS HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR ANY PERIOD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVES AND SFC FEATURES START TO
SHOW THEMSELVES AND THEIR LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL MI TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TRACK OF AN EXITING SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AND PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
WHICH MAY PUT AN EARLIER END TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS THOUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATE SFC
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 18-00Z WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
CAPE PEAKING UNDER 500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POP
UP...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT OVERWHELMING...PWATS ON WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MID MI WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY THE TROUGH WILL NOT IGNITE SHOWERS
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
SO PRECIP SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.

BAGGY LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THURSDAY WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL
A MORE COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL IS DEPICTED WITH ANY SORT OF
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINTING AT UPPER FLOW REORGANIZING
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR
INCREASED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DROP INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE RETURNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1251 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) LOOKS TO BE LOW IN COVERAGE. STILL HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH EVEN
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
AROUND WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. WITH WEAK CIRCULATION
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS LOOK SLOW TO
LIFT/EXIT DURING TUESDAY...WITH THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* VERY LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT
 TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 291922
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SUNNY START TO THE DAY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PUSH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES OVER TRI-CITIES REGION...FLINT VICINITY...AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALLOWING SOME (SCT) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO GO UP WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN/GREAT LAKES...WITH SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVELS...AS 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A 500 MB TEMP OF -15 C. ONE SHORTWAVE WHICH
PRODUCED HEAVIER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TODAY
HAS PASSED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TAKING WITH IT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A SECOND PV MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE NEAR
CHICAGO WILL SKIM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...AND 850-700
MB CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...BUT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION. SURFACE DEW PTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE THE BOTTOM FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH
MANY SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN AND THESE SMALLER WAVES THROUGHOUT THE
PAST WEEKEND AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING FORWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK. FOR THIS REASON IT WILL BE HARD TO GO WITH POPS HIGHER THAN
CHANCE FOR ANY PERIOD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVES AND SFC FEATURES START TO
SHOW THEMSELVES AND THEIR LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH CENTRAL MI TUESDAY MORNING.
THE TRACK OF AN EXITING SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY KEEP THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AND PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
WHICH MAY PUT AN EARLIER END TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS THOUGH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MI ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATE SFC
REFLECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT THROUGH LOWER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 18-00Z WHICH SHOULD AIDE IN CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW
CAPE PEAKING UNDER 500 J/KG WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POP
UP...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
OVERALL FORCING IS NOT OVERWHELMING...PWATS ON WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECONDARY TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO MID MI WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MORE LIKELY THE TROUGH WILL NOT IGNITE SHOWERS
UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
SO PRECIP SHOULD WANE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.

BAGGY LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ASIDE FROM THURSDAY WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST SIGNAL FOR
SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT UNTIL
A MORE COHERENT FORCING SIGNAL IS DEPICTED WITH ANY SORT OF
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINTING AT UPPER FLOW REORGANIZING
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL CONFIGURATION.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR
THE BETTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR
INCREASED WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DROP INTO
REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE RETURNING OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1251 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) LOOKS TO BE LOW IN COVERAGE. STILL HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH EVEN
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
AROUND WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. WITH WEAK CIRCULATION
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS LOOK SLOW TO
LIFT/EXIT DURING TUESDAY...WITH THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* VERY LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT
 TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291651
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1251 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) LOOKS TO BE LOW IN COVERAGE. STILL HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH EVEN
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
AROUND WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. WITH WEAK CIRCULATION
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS LOOK SLOW TO
LIFT/EXIT DURING TUESDAY...WITH THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* VERY LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
THE SPREAD OF 29.00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS AGAIN HIGH WITH DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING ON THE INTEGRITY AND TRACKING OF COOL SIDE DEFORMATION
THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE/850MB MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VARIOUS ABSOLUTE CYCLONIC MAXIMA
WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE/UPPER LEVEL NOAM TROUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EDDY WAS ABLE TO SLIDE OUT OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND EMERGE OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. MODEST MOISTURE PUSHED AHEAD OF
THIS CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SEMBLANCES OF A LEAD
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION WING TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE OF SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS NEAR SAGINAW BAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING AS A MERE CONSEQUENCE OF THICKNESSES INCREASING WITH THE
MAIN COLD ANOMALY FROM LAST WEEKEND VACATING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
THE 29.00Z KAPX RAOB CAPTURED A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET IN THE 700-
600MB LAYER. SEE NO REASON SHOWERS CANNOT PERSIST IN AN ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. USUALLY WITNESS
THESE NOCTURNAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THIS COULD BE THE CASE HERE.

THE SHORTWAVE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS THE ONE THAT HAS LARGELY DESCENDED INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. MODEL DATA SUGGESTED THIS
SHORTWAVE CENTER TO FOCUS NEAR/BEHIND SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
THIS HAS APPEARED TO HAVE HAPPENED IN SOME CAPACITY GIVEN THE LOOK
OF THE WV IMAGERY AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION CENTER ANALYZED IN THE
HOURLY MSAS DATSET. TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY STRUCTURE BETWEEN THE
ECWMF AND NAM. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME MAIN ENERGY REMAINS SHEARED
AND LAGGED BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS THE MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER HAS LARGELY COLLECTED OVER ILLINOIS. WARMING TOPS
IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LESS DEVELOPED SOLUTION THUS FAR. FOR
TODAY...THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT ADVERTISES THE PV ANOMALY OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MI/OH STATELINE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE
LEAD CVA PUSH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY TRENDED POPS FROM A CHANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
COOL SIDE DEFORMATION. SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPED ARC OF
SHOWERS MAY LIFT NEAR THE MI/OH STATELINE WHILE PIVOTING. IT APPEARS
THAT HI-RESOLUTION CAMS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH  DEVELOPING
SYNOPTIC SCALE STRATIFORM PRECIPATION IN THIS EVENT...AND RELIED
MORE ON DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST.

GIVEN THE FORCING AND THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE EVENT THIS
WEEKEND...DID GIVE SOME THOUGHT TO AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR LENAWEE
AND MONROE COUNTIES. WILL FORGO AN ISSUANCE THIS ISSUANCE AS THERE
REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAIN RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE THIN RIBBON OF 950MB THETA E THAT
WILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW
CIRCULATION. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE SUPPORT OF THE AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS IT WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTGOING GRIDS HAS QPF IN THE .3 TO .5 INCH RANGE FOR MONROE AND
LENAWEE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF SOME CONCERN IS VERY SLOW 850-300MB
MEAN WIND...SUPPORTIVE OF SLUGGISH CELL MOTION TODAY.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIME FOR A SUBSTANTIAL BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUD AND CEILING HEIGHTS. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...KICKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. NEXT WAVE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...DROPPING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN STARTING EARLY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...RENEWED HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BROADEN THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPANDING IT BACK TO ENCOMPASS LOWER
MICHIGAN. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT MORE FOCUSED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE...AND THEN ALSO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN
OVERALL LOOKS LIMITED...AND A LIGHT WIND FIELD ALSO LIMITS SHEAR.
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SUPPORTED BY VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW FOR THE
DAYTIME AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST...HOWEVER STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO KICK OFF CONVECTION WARRANTS A CONTINUED MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO KICK OFF A FEW CELLS...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA RENEWS CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN LOOKS TO CHANGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING THAT LASTS
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PARADE OF UPPER WAVES FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S) THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MUCH
OF TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
EASTERLY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH
LAKE ERIE AND INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
DROP INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THIS WILL EXPAND LOW PRESSURE BACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AS IT SITS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291651
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1251 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT (SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS) LOOKS TO BE LOW IN COVERAGE. STILL HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH EVEN
IFR CEILINGS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
AROUND WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. WITH WEAK CIRCULATION
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS LOOK SLOW TO
LIFT/EXIT DURING TUESDAY...WITH THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* VERY LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
THE SPREAD OF 29.00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS AGAIN HIGH WITH DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING ON THE INTEGRITY AND TRACKING OF COOL SIDE DEFORMATION
THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE/850MB MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VARIOUS ABSOLUTE CYCLONIC MAXIMA
WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE/UPPER LEVEL NOAM TROUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EDDY WAS ABLE TO SLIDE OUT OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND EMERGE OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. MODEST MOISTURE PUSHED AHEAD OF
THIS CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SEMBLANCES OF A LEAD
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION WING TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE OF SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS NEAR SAGINAW BAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING AS A MERE CONSEQUENCE OF THICKNESSES INCREASING WITH THE
MAIN COLD ANOMALY FROM LAST WEEKEND VACATING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
THE 29.00Z KAPX RAOB CAPTURED A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET IN THE 700-
600MB LAYER. SEE NO REASON SHOWERS CANNOT PERSIST IN AN ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. USUALLY WITNESS
THESE NOCTURNAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THIS COULD BE THE CASE HERE.

THE SHORTWAVE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS THE ONE THAT HAS LARGELY DESCENDED INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. MODEL DATA SUGGESTED THIS
SHORTWAVE CENTER TO FOCUS NEAR/BEHIND SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
THIS HAS APPEARED TO HAVE HAPPENED IN SOME CAPACITY GIVEN THE LOOK
OF THE WV IMAGERY AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION CENTER ANALYZED IN THE
HOURLY MSAS DATSET. TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY STRUCTURE BETWEEN THE
ECWMF AND NAM. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME MAIN ENERGY REMAINS SHEARED
AND LAGGED BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS THE MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER HAS LARGELY COLLECTED OVER ILLINOIS. WARMING TOPS
IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LESS DEVELOPED SOLUTION THUS FAR. FOR
TODAY...THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT ADVERTISES THE PV ANOMALY OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MI/OH STATELINE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE
LEAD CVA PUSH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY TRENDED POPS FROM A CHANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
COOL SIDE DEFORMATION. SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPED ARC OF
SHOWERS MAY LIFT NEAR THE MI/OH STATELINE WHILE PIVOTING. IT APPEARS
THAT HI-RESOLUTION CAMS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH  DEVELOPING
SYNOPTIC SCALE STRATIFORM PRECIPATION IN THIS EVENT...AND RELIED
MORE ON DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST.

GIVEN THE FORCING AND THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE EVENT THIS
WEEKEND...DID GIVE SOME THOUGHT TO AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR LENAWEE
AND MONROE COUNTIES. WILL FORGO AN ISSUANCE THIS ISSUANCE AS THERE
REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAIN RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE THIN RIBBON OF 950MB THETA E THAT
WILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW
CIRCULATION. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE SUPPORT OF THE AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS IT WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTGOING GRIDS HAS QPF IN THE .3 TO .5 INCH RANGE FOR MONROE AND
LENAWEE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF SOME CONCERN IS VERY SLOW 850-300MB
MEAN WIND...SUPPORTIVE OF SLUGGISH CELL MOTION TODAY.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIME FOR A SUBSTANTIAL BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUD AND CEILING HEIGHTS. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...KICKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. NEXT WAVE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...DROPPING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN STARTING EARLY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...RENEWED HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BROADEN THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPANDING IT BACK TO ENCOMPASS LOWER
MICHIGAN. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT MORE FOCUSED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE...AND THEN ALSO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN
OVERALL LOOKS LIMITED...AND A LIGHT WIND FIELD ALSO LIMITS SHEAR.
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SUPPORTED BY VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW FOR THE
DAYTIME AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST...HOWEVER STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO KICK OFF CONVECTION WARRANTS A CONTINUED MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO KICK OFF A FEW CELLS...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA RENEWS CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN LOOKS TO CHANGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING THAT LASTS
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PARADE OF UPPER WAVES FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S) THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MUCH
OF TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
EASTERLY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH
LAKE ERIE AND INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
DROP INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THIS WILL EXPAND LOW PRESSURE BACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AS IT SITS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 291155
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
755 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO OHIO TODAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO BORDER BY MIDDAY BECOMING
NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA. LACK OF A STRONG WIND
PROFILE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
SATURATION WILL LEAD TO IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CIG HEIGHTS LATE
TONIGHT. PERSISTENT LIGHT GRADIENT WIND TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIMIT
FOG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
THE SPREAD OF 29.00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS AGAIN HIGH WITH DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING ON THE INTEGRITY AND TRACKING OF COOL SIDE DEFORMATION
THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE/850MB MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VARIOUS ABSOLUTE CYCLONIC MAXIMA
WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE/UPPER LEVEL NOAM TROUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EDDY WAS ABLE TO SLIDE OUT OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND EMERGE OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. MODEST MOISTURE PUSHED AHEAD OF
THIS CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SEMBLANCES OF A LEAD
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION WING TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE OF SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS NEAR SAGINAW BAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING AS A MERE CONSEQUENCE OF THICKNESSES INCREASING WITH THE
MAIN COLD ANOMALY FROM LAST WEEKEND VACATING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
THE 29.00Z KAPX RAOB CAPTURED A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET IN THE 700-
600MB LAYER. SEE NO REASON SHOWERS CANNOT PERSIST IN AN ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. USUALLY WITNESS
THESE NOCTURNAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THIS COULD BE THE CASE HERE.

THE SHORTWAVE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS THE ONE THAT HAS LARGELY DESCENDED INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. MODEL DATA SUGGESTED THIS
SHORTWAVE CENTER TO FOCUS NEAR/BEHIND SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
THIS HAS APPEARED TO HAVE HAPPENED IN SOME CAPACITY GIVEN THE LOOK
OF THE WV IMAGERY AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION CENTER ANALYZED IN THE
HOURLY MSAS DATSET. TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY STRUCTURE BETWEEN THE
ECWMF AND NAM. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME MAIN ENERGY REMAINS SHEARED
AND LAGGED BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS THE MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER HAS LARGELY COLLECTED OVER ILLINOIS. WARMING TOPS
IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LESS DEVELOPED SOLUTION THUS FAR. FOR
TODAY...THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT ADVERTISES THE PV ANOMALY OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MI/OH STATELINE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE
LEAD CVA PUSH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY TRENDED POPS FROM A CHANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
COOL SIDE DEFORMATION. SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPED ARC OF
SHOWERS MAY LIFT NEAR THE MI/OH STATELINE WHILE PIVOTING. IT APPEARS
THAT HI-RESOLUTION CAMS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH  DEVELOPING
SYNOPTIC SCALE STRATIFORM PRECIPATION IN THIS EVENT...AND RELIED
MORE ON DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST.

GIVEN THE FORCING AND THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE EVENT THIS
WEEKEND...DID GIVE SOME THOUGHT TO AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR LENAWEE
AND MONROE COUNTIES. WILL FORGO AN ISSUANCE THIS ISSUANCE AS THERE
REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAIN RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE THIN RIBBON OF 950MB THETA E THAT
WILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW
CIRCULATION. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE SUPPORT OF THE AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS IT WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTGOING GRIDS HAS QPF IN THE .3 TO .5 INCH RANGE FOR MONROE AND
LENAWEE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF SOME CONCERN IS VERY SLOW 850-300MB
MEAN WIND...SUPPORTIVE OF SLUGGISH CELL MOTION TODAY.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIME FOR A SUBSTANTIAL BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUD AND CEILING HEIGHTS. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...KICKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. NEXT WAVE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...DROPPING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN STARTING EARLY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...RENEWED HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BROADEN THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPANDING IT BACK TO ENCOMPASS LOWER
MICHIGAN. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT MORE FOCUSED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE...AND THEN ALSO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN
OVERALL LOOKS LIMITED...AND A LIGHT WIND FIELD ALSO LIMITS SHEAR.
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SUPPORTED BY VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW FOR THE
DAYTIME AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST...HOWEVER STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO KICK OFF CONVECTION WARRANTS A CONTINUED MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO KICK OFF A FEW CELLS...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA RENEWS CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN LOOKS TO CHANGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING THAT LASTS
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PARADE OF UPPER WAVES FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S) THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MUCH
OF TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
EASTERLY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH
LAKE ERIE AND INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
DROP INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THIS WILL EXPAND LOW PRESSURE BACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AS IT SITS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291155
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
755 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO OHIO TODAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO BORDER BY MIDDAY BECOMING
NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA. LACK OF A STRONG WIND
PROFILE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
SATURATION WILL LEAD TO IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CIG HEIGHTS LATE
TONIGHT. PERSISTENT LIGHT GRADIENT WIND TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIMIT
FOG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
THE SPREAD OF 29.00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS AGAIN HIGH WITH DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING ON THE INTEGRITY AND TRACKING OF COOL SIDE DEFORMATION
THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE/850MB MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VARIOUS ABSOLUTE CYCLONIC MAXIMA
WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE/UPPER LEVEL NOAM TROUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EDDY WAS ABLE TO SLIDE OUT OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND EMERGE OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. MODEST MOISTURE PUSHED AHEAD OF
THIS CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SEMBLANCES OF A LEAD
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION WING TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE OF SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS NEAR SAGINAW BAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING AS A MERE CONSEQUENCE OF THICKNESSES INCREASING WITH THE
MAIN COLD ANOMALY FROM LAST WEEKEND VACATING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
THE 29.00Z KAPX RAOB CAPTURED A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET IN THE 700-
600MB LAYER. SEE NO REASON SHOWERS CANNOT PERSIST IN AN ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. USUALLY WITNESS
THESE NOCTURNAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THIS COULD BE THE CASE HERE.

THE SHORTWAVE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS THE ONE THAT HAS LARGELY DESCENDED INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. MODEL DATA SUGGESTED THIS
SHORTWAVE CENTER TO FOCUS NEAR/BEHIND SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
THIS HAS APPEARED TO HAVE HAPPENED IN SOME CAPACITY GIVEN THE LOOK
OF THE WV IMAGERY AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION CENTER ANALYZED IN THE
HOURLY MSAS DATSET. TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY STRUCTURE BETWEEN THE
ECWMF AND NAM. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME MAIN ENERGY REMAINS SHEARED
AND LAGGED BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS THE MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER HAS LARGELY COLLECTED OVER ILLINOIS. WARMING TOPS
IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LESS DEVELOPED SOLUTION THUS FAR. FOR
TODAY...THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT ADVERTISES THE PV ANOMALY OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MI/OH STATELINE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE
LEAD CVA PUSH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY TRENDED POPS FROM A CHANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
COOL SIDE DEFORMATION. SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPED ARC OF
SHOWERS MAY LIFT NEAR THE MI/OH STATELINE WHILE PIVOTING. IT APPEARS
THAT HI-RESOLUTION CAMS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH  DEVELOPING
SYNOPTIC SCALE STRATIFORM PRECIPATION IN THIS EVENT...AND RELIED
MORE ON DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST.

GIVEN THE FORCING AND THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE EVENT THIS
WEEKEND...DID GIVE SOME THOUGHT TO AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR LENAWEE
AND MONROE COUNTIES. WILL FORGO AN ISSUANCE THIS ISSUANCE AS THERE
REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAIN RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE THIN RIBBON OF 950MB THETA E THAT
WILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW
CIRCULATION. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE SUPPORT OF THE AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS IT WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTGOING GRIDS HAS QPF IN THE .3 TO .5 INCH RANGE FOR MONROE AND
LENAWEE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF SOME CONCERN IS VERY SLOW 850-300MB
MEAN WIND...SUPPORTIVE OF SLUGGISH CELL MOTION TODAY.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIME FOR A SUBSTANTIAL BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUD AND CEILING HEIGHTS. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...KICKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. NEXT WAVE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...DROPPING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN STARTING EARLY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...RENEWED HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BROADEN THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPANDING IT BACK TO ENCOMPASS LOWER
MICHIGAN. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT MORE FOCUSED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE...AND THEN ALSO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN
OVERALL LOOKS LIMITED...AND A LIGHT WIND FIELD ALSO LIMITS SHEAR.
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SUPPORTED BY VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW FOR THE
DAYTIME AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST...HOWEVER STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO KICK OFF CONVECTION WARRANTS A CONTINUED MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO KICK OFF A FEW CELLS...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA RENEWS CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN LOOKS TO CHANGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING THAT LASTS
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PARADE OF UPPER WAVES FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S) THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MUCH
OF TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
EASTERLY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH
LAKE ERIE AND INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
DROP INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THIS WILL EXPAND LOW PRESSURE BACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AS IT SITS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 291155
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
755 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO OHIO TODAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO BORDER BY MIDDAY BECOMING
NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA. LACK OF A STRONG WIND
PROFILE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
SATURATION WILL LEAD TO IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CIG HEIGHTS LATE
TONIGHT. PERSISTENT LIGHT GRADIENT WIND TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIMIT
FOG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
THE SPREAD OF 29.00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS AGAIN HIGH WITH DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING ON THE INTEGRITY AND TRACKING OF COOL SIDE DEFORMATION
THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE/850MB MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VARIOUS ABSOLUTE CYCLONIC MAXIMA
WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE/UPPER LEVEL NOAM TROUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EDDY WAS ABLE TO SLIDE OUT OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND EMERGE OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. MODEST MOISTURE PUSHED AHEAD OF
THIS CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SEMBLANCES OF A LEAD
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION WING TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE OF SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS NEAR SAGINAW BAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING AS A MERE CONSEQUENCE OF THICKNESSES INCREASING WITH THE
MAIN COLD ANOMALY FROM LAST WEEKEND VACATING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
THE 29.00Z KAPX RAOB CAPTURED A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET IN THE 700-
600MB LAYER. SEE NO REASON SHOWERS CANNOT PERSIST IN AN ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. USUALLY WITNESS
THESE NOCTURNAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THIS COULD BE THE CASE HERE.

THE SHORTWAVE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS THE ONE THAT HAS LARGELY DESCENDED INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. MODEL DATA SUGGESTED THIS
SHORTWAVE CENTER TO FOCUS NEAR/BEHIND SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
THIS HAS APPEARED TO HAVE HAPPENED IN SOME CAPACITY GIVEN THE LOOK
OF THE WV IMAGERY AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION CENTER ANALYZED IN THE
HOURLY MSAS DATSET. TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY STRUCTURE BETWEEN THE
ECWMF AND NAM. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME MAIN ENERGY REMAINS SHEARED
AND LAGGED BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS THE MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER HAS LARGELY COLLECTED OVER ILLINOIS. WARMING TOPS
IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LESS DEVELOPED SOLUTION THUS FAR. FOR
TODAY...THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT ADVERTISES THE PV ANOMALY OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MI/OH STATELINE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE
LEAD CVA PUSH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY TRENDED POPS FROM A CHANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
COOL SIDE DEFORMATION. SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPED ARC OF
SHOWERS MAY LIFT NEAR THE MI/OH STATELINE WHILE PIVOTING. IT APPEARS
THAT HI-RESOLUTION CAMS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH  DEVELOPING
SYNOPTIC SCALE STRATIFORM PRECIPATION IN THIS EVENT...AND RELIED
MORE ON DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST.

GIVEN THE FORCING AND THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE EVENT THIS
WEEKEND...DID GIVE SOME THOUGHT TO AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR LENAWEE
AND MONROE COUNTIES. WILL FORGO AN ISSUANCE THIS ISSUANCE AS THERE
REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAIN RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE THIN RIBBON OF 950MB THETA E THAT
WILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW
CIRCULATION. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE SUPPORT OF THE AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS IT WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTGOING GRIDS HAS QPF IN THE .3 TO .5 INCH RANGE FOR MONROE AND
LENAWEE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF SOME CONCERN IS VERY SLOW 850-300MB
MEAN WIND...SUPPORTIVE OF SLUGGISH CELL MOTION TODAY.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIME FOR A SUBSTANTIAL BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUD AND CEILING HEIGHTS. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...KICKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. NEXT WAVE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...DROPPING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN STARTING EARLY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...RENEWED HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BROADEN THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPANDING IT BACK TO ENCOMPASS LOWER
MICHIGAN. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT MORE FOCUSED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE...AND THEN ALSO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN
OVERALL LOOKS LIMITED...AND A LIGHT WIND FIELD ALSO LIMITS SHEAR.
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SUPPORTED BY VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW FOR THE
DAYTIME AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST...HOWEVER STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO KICK OFF CONVECTION WARRANTS A CONTINUED MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO KICK OFF A FEW CELLS...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA RENEWS CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN LOOKS TO CHANGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING THAT LASTS
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PARADE OF UPPER WAVES FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S) THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MUCH
OF TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
EASTERLY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH
LAKE ERIE AND INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
DROP INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THIS WILL EXPAND LOW PRESSURE BACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AS IT SITS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 291155
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
755 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


.AVIATION...

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO OHIO TODAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO BORDER BY MIDDAY BECOMING
NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA. LACK OF A STRONG WIND
PROFILE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
SATURATION WILL LEAD TO IFR TO POSSIBLE LIFR CIG HEIGHTS LATE
TONIGHT. PERSISTENT LIGHT GRADIENT WIND TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIMIT
FOG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CIGS AOB 5KFT AFTER 23Z MONDAY.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
THE SPREAD OF 29.00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS IS AGAIN HIGH WITH DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING ON THE INTEGRITY AND TRACKING OF COOL SIDE DEFORMATION
THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE/850MB MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VARIOUS ABSOLUTE CYCLONIC MAXIMA
WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE/UPPER LEVEL NOAM TROUGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EDDY WAS ABLE TO SLIDE OUT OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND EMERGE OVER
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN. MODEST MOISTURE PUSHED AHEAD OF
THIS CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH SOME SEMBLANCES OF A LEAD
MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION WING TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE OF SOME HIGH
BASED SHOWERS NEAR SAGINAW BAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO
OCCURRING AS A MERE CONSEQUENCE OF THICKNESSES INCREASING WITH THE
MAIN COLD ANOMALY FROM LAST WEEKEND VACATING THE REGION TO THE EAST.
THE 29.00Z KAPX RAOB CAPTURED A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET IN THE 700-
600MB LAYER. SEE NO REASON SHOWERS CANNOT PERSIST IN AN ISOLATED
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK. USUALLY WITNESS
THESE NOCTURNAL HIGH BASED SHOWERS WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND THIS COULD BE THE CASE HERE.

THE SHORTWAVE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS THE ONE THAT HAS LARGELY DESCENDED INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. MODEL DATA SUGGESTED THIS
SHORTWAVE CENTER TO FOCUS NEAR/BEHIND SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
THIS HAS APPEARED TO HAVE HAPPENED IN SOME CAPACITY GIVEN THE LOOK
OF THE WV IMAGERY AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION CENTER ANALYZED IN THE
HOURLY MSAS DATSET. TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PARENT SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY STRUCTURE BETWEEN THE
ECWMF AND NAM. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME MAIN ENERGY REMAINS SHEARED
AND LAGGED BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS THE MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER HAS LARGELY COLLECTED OVER ILLINOIS. WARMING TOPS
IN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LESS DEVELOPED SOLUTION THUS FAR. FOR
TODAY...THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT ADVERTISES THE PV ANOMALY OVER
ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARC OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND ROTATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MI/OH STATELINE FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE
LEAD CVA PUSH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY TRENDED POPS FROM A CHANCE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE
COOL SIDE DEFORMATION. SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPED ARC OF
SHOWERS MAY LIFT NEAR THE MI/OH STATELINE WHILE PIVOTING. IT APPEARS
THAT HI-RESOLUTION CAMS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH  DEVELOPING
SYNOPTIC SCALE STRATIFORM PRECIPATION IN THIS EVENT...AND RELIED
MORE ON DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR THIS FORECAST.

GIVEN THE FORCING AND THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE EVENT THIS
WEEKEND...DID GIVE SOME THOUGHT TO AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR LENAWEE
AND MONROE COUNTIES. WILL FORGO AN ISSUANCE THIS ISSUANCE AS THERE
REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER RAIN RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE THIN RIBBON OF 950MB THETA E THAT
WILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE 850MB LOW
CIRCULATION. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE SUPPORT OF THE AVAILABLE
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS IT WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTGOING GRIDS HAS QPF IN THE .3 TO .5 INCH RANGE FOR MONROE AND
LENAWEE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF SOME CONCERN IS VERY SLOW 850-300MB
MEAN WIND...SUPPORTIVE OF SLUGGISH CELL MOTION TODAY.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIME FOR A SUBSTANTIAL BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUD AND CEILING HEIGHTS. ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...KICKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. NEXT WAVE
WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND...DROPPING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN STARTING EARLY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...RENEWED HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BROADEN THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPANDING IT BACK TO ENCOMPASS LOWER
MICHIGAN. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT MORE FOCUSED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE...AND THEN ALSO OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN
OVERALL LOOKS LIMITED...AND A LIGHT WIND FIELD ALSO LIMITS SHEAR.
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SUPPORTED BY VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWAT VALUES
BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLIP ACROSS MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW FOR THE
DAYTIME AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST...HOWEVER STEEP
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO KICK OFF CONVECTION WARRANTS A CONTINUED MENTION FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO KICK OFF A FEW CELLS...BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT
TIMING.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA RENEWS CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THE PATTERN
THEN LOOKS TO CHANGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFT EAST AND IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING THAT LASTS
INTO SUNDAY.

THE PARADE OF UPPER WAVES FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S) THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS.

MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MUCH
OF TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
EASTERLY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH
LAKE ERIE AND INTO ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
DROP INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY. THIS WILL EXPAND LOW PRESSURE BACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AS IT SITS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MIZ083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





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