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000
FXUS63 KDTX 250409
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015


.AVIATION...

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
BELOW 10KFT OR SO. EVEN SO...SOME MOISTURE IS MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. FGEN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING A PERIOD OF -SHRAS/SPRINKLES INTO THE
INTERSTATE 94 TAFS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SHRAS
WILL FOCUS GRADUALLY SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND WILL JUST MAINTAIN A MID
BKN-OVC DECK ATTM WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE FORECAST AS
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DTW...EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TO THE WEST WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF -SHRAS OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5KFT AND VSBYS SHOULD NOT BE RESTRICTED MUCH GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL
OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAKING A RUN TOWARD CHICAGO LOOKS TO BE EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT...WITH SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA GIVING WAY TO THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA. OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (1018 MB) CONTINUES TO
HOLD...WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...HAVING ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY
AS INDICATED BY THE SURFACE DEW PTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
SUPPORT MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND FAVOR MORE OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO
TO THE MINS. A QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
THUMB REGION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 20S BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.

VARIOUS MODELS...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
ADVERTISING ENHANCED FGEN BAND(S) AND SUBSEQUENT NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS ALIGNED ALONG THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FIELDS SLIPPING
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. UNTIL THERE IS OVERWHELMING UPSTREAM
RADAR EVIDENCE...SUPPORTED BY GROUND TRUTH...PREFERENCE IS FOR THE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS TO HOLD OVER THE CWA...WITH MOST LIKELY JUST
VIRGA AROUND. WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
(LENAWEE COUNTY) WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN
BY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...AS IT LOSES RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FORCING NOW SUPPORTING IT AND MOVES INTO AN AREA OF MORE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE GUIDED TO OUR
SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AS IT
PIVOTS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF EAST COAST...THE
SAME LOW THAT RESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.

LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH PER LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE...WITH JUST MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA...WITH 6-8C DEWPOINTS AT H850 NOT MAKING IT NORTH OF THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND UP INTO MICHIGAN. H850
DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING PER
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WETTER GFS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL FIRST NEED TO OVERCOME THE CURRENT DRY
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN FIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF CANADA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT GFS
SOLUTION IS OVERDONE WITH QPF...AND THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP EDGE
TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. KEPT POPS LIMITED TO M-59 SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS NOT HIGH. ON
ONE HAND...MOISTURE AND FORCING DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY FAVORABLE THIS
FAR NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWERS/TSTORMS ONGOING OVER
IOWA/MINNESOTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THEY CAN MANAGE TO
SURVIVE THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW...AND MANAGE TO TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA. IF PRECIP BEGINS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY WE COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ONSET
BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING SETS IN. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FURTHER INLAND WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH
MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S)
AND PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. GFS/NAM DO SHOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOSTLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
MICHIGAN. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE
WORKS ACROSS. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG
CONSIDERING THE PRECEDING DRY AIRMASS.

FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS FILTER IN A WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH. RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
EAST TO NORTHEAST AND GUST TO 20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WAVES WILL BUILD
OVER SAGINAW BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THEY
LOOK TO REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW ALLOWS
WAVE HEIGHTS TO POTENTIALLY BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 242258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


.AVIATION...

DECENT FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SHEARS INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO CONFLUENCE UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION FORCED BY INCREASE FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
TO ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND WILL COVER SOUTHERN TAFS
WITH P6SM -SHRAS ATTM WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR...MOST LIKELY ABOVE
5000 FEET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

FOR DTW...EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TO THE WEST WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP INTO THE TERMINAL BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO...AND SPRINKLES APPEAR TO BE A PRETTY GOOD BET. AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE -SHRAS/SPRINKLES GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAKING A RUN TOWARD CHICAGO LOOKS TO BE EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT...WITH SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA GIVING WAY TO THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA. OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (1018 MB) CONTINUES TO
HOLD...WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...HAVING ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY
AS INDICATED BY THE SURFACE DEW PTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
SUPPORT MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND FAVOR MORE OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO
TO THE MINS. A QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
THUMB REGION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 20S BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.

VARIOUS MODELS...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
ADVERTISING ENHANCED FGEN BAND(S) AND SUBSEQUENT NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS ALIGNED ALONG THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FIELDS SLIPPING
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. UNTIL THERE IS OVERWHELMING UPSTREAM
RADAR EVIDENCE...SUPPORTED BY GROUND TRUTH...PREFERENCE IS FOR THE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS TO HOLD OVER THE CWA...WITH MOST LIKELY JUST
VIRGA AROUND. WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
(LENAWEE COUNTY) WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN
BY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...AS IT LOSES RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FORCING NOW SUPPORTING IT AND MOVES INTO AN AREA OF MORE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE GUIDED TO OUR
SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AS IT
PIVOTS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF EAST COAST...THE
SAME LOW THAT RESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.

LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH PER LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE...WITH JUST MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA...WITH 6-8C DEWPOINTS AT H850 NOT MAKING IT NORTH OF THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND UP INTO MICHIGAN. H850
DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING PER
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WETTER GFS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL FIRST NEED TO OVERCOME THE CURRENT DRY
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN FIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF CANADA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT GFS
SOLUTION IS OVERDONE WITH QPF...AND THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP EDGE
TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. KEPT POPS LIMITED TO M-59 SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS NOT HIGH. ON
ONE HAND...MOISTURE AND FORCING DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY FAVORABLE THIS
FAR NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWERS/TSTORMS ONGOING OVER
IOWA/MINNESOTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THEY CAN MANAGE TO
SURVIVE THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW...AND MANAGE TO TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA. IF PRECIP BEGINS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY WE COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ONSET
BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING SETS IN. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FURTHER INLAND WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH
MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S)
AND PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. GFS/NAM DO SHOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOSTLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
MICHIGAN. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE
WORKS ACROSS. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG
CONSIDERING THE PRECEDING DRY AIRMASS.

FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS FILTER IN A WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH. RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
EAST TO NORTHEAST AND GUST TO 20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WAVES WILL BUILD
OVER SAGINAW BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THEY
LOOK TO REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW ALLOWS
WAVE HEIGHTS TO POTENTIALLY BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 242258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


.AVIATION...

DECENT FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SHEARS INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO CONFLUENCE UPPER FLOW AND EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION FORCED BY INCREASE FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
TO ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND WILL COVER SOUTHERN TAFS
WITH P6SM -SHRAS ATTM WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR...MOST LIKELY ABOVE
5000 FEET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

FOR DTW...EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TO THE WEST WILL ATTEMPT TO CREEP INTO THE TERMINAL BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO...AND SPRINKLES APPEAR TO BE A PRETTY GOOD BET. AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE -SHRAS/SPRINKLES GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAKING A RUN TOWARD CHICAGO LOOKS TO BE EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT...WITH SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA GIVING WAY TO THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA. OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (1018 MB) CONTINUES TO
HOLD...WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...HAVING ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY
AS INDICATED BY THE SURFACE DEW PTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
SUPPORT MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND FAVOR MORE OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO
TO THE MINS. A QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
THUMB REGION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 20S BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.

VARIOUS MODELS...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
ADVERTISING ENHANCED FGEN BAND(S) AND SUBSEQUENT NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS ALIGNED ALONG THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FIELDS SLIPPING
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. UNTIL THERE IS OVERWHELMING UPSTREAM
RADAR EVIDENCE...SUPPORTED BY GROUND TRUTH...PREFERENCE IS FOR THE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS TO HOLD OVER THE CWA...WITH MOST LIKELY JUST
VIRGA AROUND. WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
(LENAWEE COUNTY) WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN
BY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...AS IT LOSES RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FORCING NOW SUPPORTING IT AND MOVES INTO AN AREA OF MORE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE GUIDED TO OUR
SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AS IT
PIVOTS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF EAST COAST...THE
SAME LOW THAT RESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.

LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH PER LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE...WITH JUST MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA...WITH 6-8C DEWPOINTS AT H850 NOT MAKING IT NORTH OF THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND UP INTO MICHIGAN. H850
DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING PER
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WETTER GFS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL FIRST NEED TO OVERCOME THE CURRENT DRY
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN FIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF CANADA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT GFS
SOLUTION IS OVERDONE WITH QPF...AND THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP EDGE
TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. KEPT POPS LIMITED TO M-59 SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS NOT HIGH. ON
ONE HAND...MOISTURE AND FORCING DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY FAVORABLE THIS
FAR NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWERS/TSTORMS ONGOING OVER
IOWA/MINNESOTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THEY CAN MANAGE TO
SURVIVE THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW...AND MANAGE TO TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA. IF PRECIP BEGINS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY WE COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ONSET
BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING SETS IN. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FURTHER INLAND WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH
MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S)
AND PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. GFS/NAM DO SHOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOSTLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
MICHIGAN. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE
WORKS ACROSS. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG
CONSIDERING THE PRECEDING DRY AIRMASS.

FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS FILTER IN A WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH. RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
EAST TO NORTHEAST AND GUST TO 20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WAVES WILL BUILD
OVER SAGINAW BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THEY
LOOK TO REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW ALLOWS
WAVE HEIGHTS TO POTENTIALLY BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241947
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAKING A RUN TOWARD CHICAGO LOOKS TO BE EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT...WITH SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA GIVING WAY TO THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA. OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (1018 MB) CONTINUES TO
HOLD...WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...HAVING ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY
AS INDICATED BY THE SURFACE DEW PTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
SUPPORT MID CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND FAVOR MORE OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO
TO THE MINS. A QUICK DROP EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
THUMB REGION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 20S BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.

VARIOUS MODELS...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
ADVERTISING ENHANCED FGEN BAND(S) AND SUBSEQUENT NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS ALIGNED ALONG THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FIELDS SLIPPING
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. UNTIL THERE IS OVERWHELMING UPSTREAM
RADAR EVIDENCE...SUPPORTED BY GROUND TRUTH...PREFERENCE IS FOR THE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS TO HOLD OVER THE CWA...WITH MOST LIKELY JUST
VIRGA AROUND. WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
(LENAWEE COUNTY) WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN
BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY

UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...AS IT LOSES RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FORCING NOW SUPPORTING IT AND MOVES INTO AN AREA OF MORE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE GUIDED TO OUR
SOUTH BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AS IT
PIVOTS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF EAST COAST...THE
SAME LOW THAT RESIDED OVER THE GREAT LAKES JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.

LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH PER LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE...WITH JUST MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA...WITH 6-8C DEWPOINTS AT H850 NOT MAKING IT NORTH OF THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE AND UP INTO MICHIGAN. H850
DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING PER
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE WETTER GFS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL FIRST NEED TO OVERCOME THE CURRENT DRY
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SHOWERS...AND THEN FIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF CANADA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT GFS
SOLUTION IS OVERDONE WITH QPF...AND THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP EDGE
TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. KEPT POPS LIMITED TO M-59 SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS NOT HIGH. ON
ONE HAND...MOISTURE AND FORCING DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY FAVORABLE THIS
FAR NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWERS/TSTORMS ONGOING OVER
IOWA/MINNESOTA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THEY CAN MANAGE TO
SURVIVE THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW...AND MANAGE TO TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA. IF PRECIP BEGINS
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY WE COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ONSET
BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING SETS IN. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S FURTHER INLAND WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH
MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S)
AND PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. GFS/NAM DO SHOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOSTLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
MICHIGAN. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS THIS WAVE
WORKS ACROSS. MOISTURE ADVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TOO STRONG
CONSIDERING THE PRECEDING DRY AIRMASS.

FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS FILTER IN A WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH. RESULTING
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
EAST TO NORTHEAST AND GUST TO 20 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WAVES WILL BUILD
OVER SAGINAW BAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THEY
LOOK TO REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW ALLOWS
WAVE HEIGHTS TO POTENTIALLY BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1248 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A MID DECK
OF CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS MODEST WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH VIRGA ACTIVITY SHOWING UP...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE MOST PART AS SURFACE RIDGE/HIGH PERSISTS
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 ACROSS
DETROIT TAF FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS HOWEVER.

FOR DTW...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH
ATTEMPT FOR LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...WIND DIRECTION WILL VARIABLE
AND UNABLE TO PICK A DIRECTION FOR PREVAILING GROUP AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT...UNDER 8 KNOTS. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TO BECOME LIGHT
EASTERLY THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 241648
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1248 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A MID DECK
OF CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS MODEST WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH VIRGA ACTIVITY SHOWING UP...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE MOST PART AS SURFACE RIDGE/HIGH PERSISTS
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 ACROSS
DETROIT TAF FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS HOWEVER.

FOR DTW...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH
ATTEMPT FOR LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...WIND DIRECTION WILL VARIABLE
AND UNABLE TO PICK A DIRECTION FOR PREVAILING GROUP AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT...UNDER 8 KNOTS. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TO BECOME LIGHT
EASTERLY THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE GREAT LAKES
AGGREGATE WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
IR IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SKY
FRACTION TO BEGIN THE DAY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. A GOOD
SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A LAKE SHADOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE THUMB DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB
COUNTIES IN THE 40S.

FLOW WILL SWITCH EASTERLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO
THE STATE. WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE....BEST
UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN (10
KFT AGL AND ABOVE). WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...WITH THE IDEA
THAT HIGH CLOUD WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF
THE COAST OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
WILL SUSTAIN A STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUT OFF
LOW TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE FORCED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD
DEGREE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A RATHER DYNAMIC FRONTAL RESPONSE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL SUSTAIN A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
TO CAUSE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPF ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER
MI ON SATURDAY...BUT HAS SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LOOK TO
THE MODEL GENERATED FORCING. THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A
DRIER FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT SOME REDUCTION IN
POPS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EVENT THIS SYSTEM TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.

LOW LEVEL N-NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE
50S/ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND /NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUITE
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST OF CANADA WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REBOUNDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CAUSING STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ON SAGINAW BAY AS THE NE FLOW FUNNELS INTO THE
BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241648
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1248 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A MID DECK
OF CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS MODEST WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH VIRGA ACTIVITY SHOWING UP...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE MOST PART AS SURFACE RIDGE/HIGH PERSISTS
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 ACROSS
DETROIT TAF FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS HOWEVER.

FOR DTW...WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH
ATTEMPT FOR LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...WIND DIRECTION WILL VARIABLE
AND UNABLE TO PICK A DIRECTION FOR PREVAILING GROUP AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT...UNDER 8 KNOTS. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TO BECOME LIGHT
EASTERLY THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE GREAT LAKES
AGGREGATE WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
IR IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SKY
FRACTION TO BEGIN THE DAY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. A GOOD
SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A LAKE SHADOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE THUMB DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB
COUNTIES IN THE 40S.

FLOW WILL SWITCH EASTERLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO
THE STATE. WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE....BEST
UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN (10
KFT AGL AND ABOVE). WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...WITH THE IDEA
THAT HIGH CLOUD WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF
THE COAST OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
WILL SUSTAIN A STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUT OFF
LOW TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE FORCED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD
DEGREE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A RATHER DYNAMIC FRONTAL RESPONSE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL SUSTAIN A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
TO CAUSE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPF ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER
MI ON SATURDAY...BUT HAS SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LOOK TO
THE MODEL GENERATED FORCING. THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A
DRIER FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT SOME REDUCTION IN
POPS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EVENT THIS SYSTEM TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.

LOW LEVEL N-NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE
50S/ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND /NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUITE
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST OF CANADA WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REBOUNDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CAUSING STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ON SAGINAW BAY AS THE NE FLOW FUNNELS INTO THE
BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 241059
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEP COLUMN RIDGING WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT INCREASING HIGH-MID CLOUD BY TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE GREAT LAKES
AGGREGATE WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
IR IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SKY
FRACTION TO BEGIN THE DAY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. A GOOD
SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A LAKE SHADOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE THUMB DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB
COUNTIES IN THE 40S.

FLOW WILL SWITCH EASTERLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO
THE STATE. WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE....BEST
UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN (10
KFT AGL AND ABOVE). WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...WITH THE IDEA
THAT HIGH CLOUD WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF
THE COAST OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
WILL SUSTAIN A STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUT OFF
LOW TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE FORCED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD
DEGREE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A RATHER DYNAMIC FRONTAL RESPONSE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL SUSTAIN A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
TO CAUSE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPF ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER
MI ON SATURDAY...BUT HAS SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LOOK TO
THE MODEL GENERATED FORCING. THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A
DRIER FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT SOME REDUCTION IN
POPS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EVENT THIS SYSTEM TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.

LOW LEVEL N-NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE
50S/ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND /NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUITE
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST OF CANADA WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REBOUNDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CAUSING STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ON SAGINAW BAY AS THE NE FLOW FUNNELS INTO THE
BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241059
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEP COLUMN RIDGING WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT INCREASING HIGH-MID CLOUD BY TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE GREAT LAKES
AGGREGATE WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
IR IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SKY
FRACTION TO BEGIN THE DAY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. A GOOD
SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A LAKE SHADOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE THUMB DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB
COUNTIES IN THE 40S.

FLOW WILL SWITCH EASTERLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO
THE STATE. WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE....BEST
UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN (10
KFT AGL AND ABOVE). WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...WITH THE IDEA
THAT HIGH CLOUD WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF
THE COAST OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
WILL SUSTAIN A STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUT OFF
LOW TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE FORCED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD
DEGREE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A RATHER DYNAMIC FRONTAL RESPONSE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL SUSTAIN A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
TO CAUSE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPF ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER
MI ON SATURDAY...BUT HAS SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LOOK TO
THE MODEL GENERATED FORCING. THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A
DRIER FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT SOME REDUCTION IN
POPS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EVENT THIS SYSTEM TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.

LOW LEVEL N-NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE
50S/ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND /NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUITE
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST OF CANADA WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REBOUNDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CAUSING STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ON SAGINAW BAY AS THE NE FLOW FUNNELS INTO THE
BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241059
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEP COLUMN RIDGING WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT INCREASING HIGH-MID CLOUD BY TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE GREAT LAKES
AGGREGATE WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
IR IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SKY
FRACTION TO BEGIN THE DAY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. A GOOD
SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A LAKE SHADOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE THUMB DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB
COUNTIES IN THE 40S.

FLOW WILL SWITCH EASTERLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO
THE STATE. WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE....BEST
UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN (10
KFT AGL AND ABOVE). WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...WITH THE IDEA
THAT HIGH CLOUD WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF
THE COAST OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
WILL SUSTAIN A STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUT OFF
LOW TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE FORCED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD
DEGREE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A RATHER DYNAMIC FRONTAL RESPONSE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL SUSTAIN A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
TO CAUSE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPF ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER
MI ON SATURDAY...BUT HAS SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LOOK TO
THE MODEL GENERATED FORCING. THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A
DRIER FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT SOME REDUCTION IN
POPS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EVENT THIS SYSTEM TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.

LOW LEVEL N-NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE
50S/ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND /NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUITE
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST OF CANADA WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REBOUNDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CAUSING STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ON SAGINAW BAY AS THE NE FLOW FUNNELS INTO THE
BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 241059
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
659 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015


.AVIATION...

DEEP COLUMN RIDGING WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT INCREASING HIGH-MID CLOUD BY TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE GREAT LAKES
AGGREGATE WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
IR IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SKY
FRACTION TO BEGIN THE DAY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. A GOOD
SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A LAKE SHADOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE THUMB DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB
COUNTIES IN THE 40S.

FLOW WILL SWITCH EASTERLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO
THE STATE. WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE....BEST
UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN (10
KFT AGL AND ABOVE). WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...WITH THE IDEA
THAT HIGH CLOUD WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF
THE COAST OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
WILL SUSTAIN A STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUT OFF
LOW TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE FORCED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD
DEGREE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A RATHER DYNAMIC FRONTAL RESPONSE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL SUSTAIN A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
TO CAUSE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPF ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER
MI ON SATURDAY...BUT HAS SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LOOK TO
THE MODEL GENERATED FORCING. THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A
DRIER FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT SOME REDUCTION IN
POPS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EVENT THIS SYSTEM TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.

LOW LEVEL N-NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE
50S/ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND /NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUITE
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST OF CANADA WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REBOUNDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CAUSING STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ON SAGINAW BAY AS THE NE FLOW FUNNELS INTO THE
BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 240813
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE GREAT LAKES
AGGREGATE WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
IR IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SKY
FRACTION TO BEGIN THE DAY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. A GOOD
SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A LAKE SHADOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE THUMB DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB
COUNTIES IN THE 40S.

FLOW WILL SWITCH EASTERLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO
THE STATE. WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE....BEST
UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN (10
KFT AGL AND ABOVE). WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...WITH THE IDEA
THAT HIGH CLOUD WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF
THE COAST OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
WILL SUSTAIN A STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUT OFF
LOW TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE FORCED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD
DEGREE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A RATHER DYNAMIC FRONTAL RESPONSE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL SUSTAIN A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
TO CAUSE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPF ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER
MI ON SATURDAY...BUT HAS SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LOOK TO
THE MODEL GENERATED FORCING. THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A
DRIER FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT SOME REDUCTION IN
POPS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EVENT THIS SYSTEM TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.

LOW LEVEL N-NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE
50S/ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND /NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUITE
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST OF CANADA WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REBOUNDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CAUSING STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ON SAGINAW BAY AS THE NE FLOW FUNNELS INTO THE
BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST THICKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AOA 10KFT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 240813
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
413 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE GREAT LAKES
AGGREGATE WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN TODAY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
IR IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SKY
FRACTION TO BEGIN THE DAY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MARKED IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS IN
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. A GOOD
SIGNAL EXISTS FOR A LAKE SHADOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE THUMB DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE THUMB
COUNTIES IN THE 40S.

FLOW WILL SWITCH EASTERLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WILL
PERSIST...KEEPING A STEADY SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEEDING INTO
THE STATE. WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE....BEST
UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL SUPPORT WILL RESIDE VERY HIGH IN THE COLUMN (10
KFT AGL AND ABOVE). WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST...WITH THE IDEA
THAT HIGH CLOUD WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO A MID CLOUD DECK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROTATING OFF
THE COAST OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY
WILL SUSTAIN A STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUT OFF
LOW TONIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY DAMPENING AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THESE TRENDS
SUGGESTS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE FORCED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD
DEGREE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A RATHER DYNAMIC FRONTAL RESPONSE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SRN OHIO VALLEY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES...A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL SUSTAIN A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
TO CAUSE A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAINFALL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPF ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER
MI ON SATURDAY...BUT HAS SOMEWHAT OF A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LOOK TO
THE MODEL GENERATED FORCING. THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A
DRIER FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT SOME REDUCTION IN
POPS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
EVENT THIS SYSTEM TRENDS BACK NORTHWARD.

LOW LEVEL N-NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE
50S/ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND /NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS/. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUITE
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST OF CANADA WITH SHORT WAVE FEATURES ROTATING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REBOUNDING HEIGHTS SUPPORTING A
MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SUSTAIN SOME RATHER GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THIS
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CAUSING STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ON SAGINAW BAY AS THE NE FLOW FUNNELS INTO THE
BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1156 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST THICKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AOA 10KFT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 240356
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1156 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST THICKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AOA 10KFT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY PULL EAST AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LOCKED
INTO PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION SHOWN ON 12Z DTX/APX RAOBS BETWEEN
4500-5500 FEET.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE ALSO DECREASING FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING THE EXISTING INVERSION. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST...A TREND WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED
OVERHEAD. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C).
CONSIDERING UNDERACHIEVING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...HEDGED
OVERNIGHT MINS BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST MINS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. THIS FORECAST IS AT OR NEAR RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

THE LATE APRIL INSOLATION TOMORROW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TOMORROW (FROM RECORD/NEAR RECORD
COLD VALUES TO START THE DAY) AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER NICELY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY`S END...WITH NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACHING RIGHT AT 850 MB.
NAM CU RULE VALUES ARE SOLIDLY POSITIVE TOMORROW...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THUS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLOSE CALL ON POTENTIAL SHOWERS ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEAST...SENDING PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST...BUT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BRICK WALL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE FORM OF THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR (850 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-40 C) IN
PLACE...SHUNTING THE UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
JUST THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE VERY TIGHT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE
FORECASTED TO CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH THE 12Z CANADIAN AND GFS ARE AGRESSIVE
WITH THE RAIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE NAM BEING
ONE OF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE WILL BE WITH THE 12Z EURO
WHICH IS MORE OF MIDDLE GROUND. WILL BE FEATURING CHANCE POPS TO
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGH CHANCE/BORDERLINE LIKELY POPS AT THE
OHIO BORDER...AS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION IS THE
OVER RIGHTING FACTOR IN SKEWING THE POPS HIGHER FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.
ALSO...THERE IS SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PV ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET AS FAR AS ANY PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED.  UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL STILL BE OF INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A
WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE A NICE WELCOME CONSIDERING THE COLD
TEMPS THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY IS WEAKENING...AS SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES...AND WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LEADING TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH THE LONG FETCH AND
FUNNELING...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE WITHIN SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
WINDS COULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
WAVES AROUND 4 FEET.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 232302
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN 4000-5000 FOOT DECK ERODING
EARLY IN THE FORECAST...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHEN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 12KFT BEGIN TO
THICKEN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 01Z-
  02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY PULL EAST AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LOCKED
INTO PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION SHOWN ON 12Z DTX/APX RAOBS BETWEEN
4500-5500 FEET.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE ALSO DECREASING FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING THE EXISTING INVERSION. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST...A TREND WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED
OVERHEAD. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C).
CONSIDERING UNDERACHIEVING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...HEDGED
OVERNIGHT MINS BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST MINS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. THIS FORECAST IS AT OR NEAR RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

THE LATE APRIL INSOLATION TOMORROW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TOMORROW (FROM RECORD/NEAR RECORD
COLD VALUES TO START THE DAY) AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER NICELY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY`S END...WITH NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACHING RIGHT AT 850 MB.
NAM CU RULE VALUES ARE SOLIDLY POSITIVE TOMORROW...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THUS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLOSE CALL ON POTENTIAL SHOWERS ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEAST...SENDING PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST...BUT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BRICK WALL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE FORM OF THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR (850 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-40 C) IN
PLACE...SHUNTING THE UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
JUST THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE VERY TIGHT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE
FORECASTED TO CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH THE 12Z CANADIAN AND GFS ARE AGRESSIVE
WITH THE RAIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE NAM BEING
ONE OF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE WILL BE WITH THE 12Z EURO
WHICH IS MORE OF MIDDLE GROUND. WILL BE FEATURING CHANCE POPS TO
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGH CHANCE/BORDERLINE LIKELY POPS AT THE
OHIO BORDER...AS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION IS THE
OVER RIGHTING FACTOR IN SKEWING THE POPS HIGHER FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.
ALSO...THERE IS SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PV ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET AS FAR AS ANY PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED.  UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL STILL BE OF INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A
WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE A NICE WELCOME CONSIDERING THE COLD
TEMPS THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY IS WEAKENING...AS SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES...AND WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LEADING TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH THE LONG FETCH AND
FUNNELING...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE WITHIN SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
WINDS COULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
WAVES AROUND 4 FEET.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 232302
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN 4000-5000 FOOT DECK ERODING
EARLY IN THE FORECAST...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHEN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 12KFT BEGIN TO
THICKEN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 01Z-
  02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY PULL EAST AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LOCKED
INTO PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION SHOWN ON 12Z DTX/APX RAOBS BETWEEN
4500-5500 FEET.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE ALSO DECREASING FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING THE EXISTING INVERSION. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST...A TREND WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED
OVERHEAD. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C).
CONSIDERING UNDERACHIEVING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...HEDGED
OVERNIGHT MINS BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST MINS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. THIS FORECAST IS AT OR NEAR RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

THE LATE APRIL INSOLATION TOMORROW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TOMORROW (FROM RECORD/NEAR RECORD
COLD VALUES TO START THE DAY) AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER NICELY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY`S END...WITH NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACHING RIGHT AT 850 MB.
NAM CU RULE VALUES ARE SOLIDLY POSITIVE TOMORROW...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THUS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLOSE CALL ON POTENTIAL SHOWERS ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEAST...SENDING PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST...BUT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BRICK WALL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE FORM OF THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR (850 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-40 C) IN
PLACE...SHUNTING THE UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
JUST THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE VERY TIGHT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE
FORECASTED TO CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH THE 12Z CANADIAN AND GFS ARE AGRESSIVE
WITH THE RAIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE NAM BEING
ONE OF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE WILL BE WITH THE 12Z EURO
WHICH IS MORE OF MIDDLE GROUND. WILL BE FEATURING CHANCE POPS TO
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGH CHANCE/BORDERLINE LIKELY POPS AT THE
OHIO BORDER...AS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION IS THE
OVER RIGHTING FACTOR IN SKEWING THE POPS HIGHER FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.
ALSO...THERE IS SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PV ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET AS FAR AS ANY PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED.  UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL STILL BE OF INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A
WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE A NICE WELCOME CONSIDERING THE COLD
TEMPS THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY IS WEAKENING...AS SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES...AND WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LEADING TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH THE LONG FETCH AND
FUNNELING...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE WITHIN SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
WINDS COULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
WAVES AROUND 4 FEET.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231931
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
331 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY PULL EAST AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LOCKED
INTO PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION SHOWN ON 12Z DTX/APX RAOBS BETWEEN
4500-5500 FEET.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE ALSO DECREASING FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING THE EXISTING INVERSION. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST...A TREND WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED
OVERHEAD. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C).
CONSIDERING UNDERACHIEVING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...HEDGED
OVERNIGHT MINS BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST MINS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. THIS FORECAST IS AT OR NEAR RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE LATE APRIL INSOLATION TOMORROW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TOMORROW (FROM RECORD/NEAR RECORD
COLD VALUES TO START THE DAY) AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER NICELY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY`S END...WITH NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACHING RIGHT AT 850 MB.
NAM CU RULE VALUES ARE SOLIDLY POSITIVE TOMORROW...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THUS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLOSE CALL ON POTENTIAL SHOWERS ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEAST...SENDING PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST...BUT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BRICK WALL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE FORM OF THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR (850 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-40 C) IN
PLACE...SHUNTING THE UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
JUST THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE VERY TIGHT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE
FORECASTED TO CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH THE 12Z CANADIAN AND GFS ARE AGRESSIVE
WITH THE RAIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE NAM BEING
ONE OF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE WILL BE WITH THE 12Z EURO
WHICH IS MORE OF MIDDLE GROUND. WILL BE FEATURING CHANCE POPS TO
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGH CHANCE/BORDERLINE LIKELY POPS AT THE
OHIO BORDER...AS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION IS THE
OVER RIGHTING FACTOR IN SKEWING THE POPS HIGHER FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.
ALSO...THERE IS SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PV ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET AS FAR AS ANY PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED.  UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL STILL BE OF INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A
WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE A NICE WELCOME CONSIDERING THE COLD
TEMPS THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY IS WEAKENING...AS SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES...AND WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LEADING TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH THE LONG FETCH AND
FUNNELING...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE WITHIN SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
WINDS COULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
WAVES AROUND 4 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA AND FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 05Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM ABOUT 300-310 DEGREES...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS COULD POTENTIALLY LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO TIME INTO 18Z TAFS. WILL AMEND IF TRENDS START TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231931
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
331 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY PULL EAST AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LOCKED
INTO PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION SHOWN ON 12Z DTX/APX RAOBS BETWEEN
4500-5500 FEET.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE ALSO DECREASING FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING THE EXISTING INVERSION. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST...A TREND WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED
OVERHEAD. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C).
CONSIDERING UNDERACHIEVING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...HEDGED
OVERNIGHT MINS BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST MINS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. THIS FORECAST IS AT OR NEAR RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE LATE APRIL INSOLATION TOMORROW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TOMORROW (FROM RECORD/NEAR RECORD
COLD VALUES TO START THE DAY) AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER NICELY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY`S END...WITH NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACHING RIGHT AT 850 MB.
NAM CU RULE VALUES ARE SOLIDLY POSITIVE TOMORROW...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THUS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLOSE CALL ON POTENTIAL SHOWERS ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEAST...SENDING PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST...BUT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BRICK WALL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE FORM OF THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR (850 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-40 C) IN
PLACE...SHUNTING THE UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
JUST THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE VERY TIGHT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE
FORECASTED TO CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH THE 12Z CANADIAN AND GFS ARE AGRESSIVE
WITH THE RAIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE NAM BEING
ONE OF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE WILL BE WITH THE 12Z EURO
WHICH IS MORE OF MIDDLE GROUND. WILL BE FEATURING CHANCE POPS TO
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGH CHANCE/BORDERLINE LIKELY POPS AT THE
OHIO BORDER...AS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION IS THE
OVER RIGHTING FACTOR IN SKEWING THE POPS HIGHER FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.
ALSO...THERE IS SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PV ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET AS FAR AS ANY PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED.  UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL STILL BE OF INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A
WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE A NICE WELCOME CONSIDERING THE COLD
TEMPS THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY IS WEAKENING...AS SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES...AND WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LEADING TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH THE LONG FETCH AND
FUNNELING...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE WITHIN SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
WINDS COULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
WAVES AROUND 4 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA AND FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 05Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM ABOUT 300-310 DEGREES...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS COULD POTENTIALLY LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO TIME INTO 18Z TAFS. WILL AMEND IF TRENDS START TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231931
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
331 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY PULL EAST AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LOCKED
INTO PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION SHOWN ON 12Z DTX/APX RAOBS BETWEEN
4500-5500 FEET.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE ALSO DECREASING FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING THE EXISTING INVERSION. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST...A TREND WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED
OVERHEAD. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C).
CONSIDERING UNDERACHIEVING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...HEDGED
OVERNIGHT MINS BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST MINS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. THIS FORECAST IS AT OR NEAR RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE LATE APRIL INSOLATION TOMORROW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TOMORROW (FROM RECORD/NEAR RECORD
COLD VALUES TO START THE DAY) AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER NICELY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY`S END...WITH NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACHING RIGHT AT 850 MB.
NAM CU RULE VALUES ARE SOLIDLY POSITIVE TOMORROW...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THUS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLOSE CALL ON POTENTIAL SHOWERS ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEAST...SENDING PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST...BUT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BRICK WALL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE FORM OF THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR (850 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-40 C) IN
PLACE...SHUNTING THE UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
JUST THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE VERY TIGHT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE
FORECASTED TO CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH THE 12Z CANADIAN AND GFS ARE AGRESSIVE
WITH THE RAIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE NAM BEING
ONE OF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE WILL BE WITH THE 12Z EURO
WHICH IS MORE OF MIDDLE GROUND. WILL BE FEATURING CHANCE POPS TO
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGH CHANCE/BORDERLINE LIKELY POPS AT THE
OHIO BORDER...AS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION IS THE
OVER RIGHTING FACTOR IN SKEWING THE POPS HIGHER FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.
ALSO...THERE IS SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PV ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET AS FAR AS ANY PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED.  UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL STILL BE OF INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A
WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE A NICE WELCOME CONSIDERING THE COLD
TEMPS THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY IS WEAKENING...AS SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES...AND WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LEADING TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH THE LONG FETCH AND
FUNNELING...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE WITHIN SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
WINDS COULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
WAVES AROUND 4 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA AND FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 05Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM ABOUT 300-310 DEGREES...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS COULD POTENTIALLY LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO TIME INTO 18Z TAFS. WILL AMEND IF TRENDS START TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231931
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
331 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY PULL EAST AND OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AS WELL. UNTIL THEN...STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LOCKED
INTO PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION SHOWN ON 12Z DTX/APX RAOBS BETWEEN
4500-5500 FEET.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR
OVERNIGHT...WHILE ALSO DECREASING FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND
WEAKENING THE EXISTING INVERSION. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST...A TREND WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SET UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED
OVERHEAD. COLD POOL OF AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT EVEN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (H925 TEMPS OF -1 TO -8C).
CONSIDERING UNDERACHIEVING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...HEDGED
OVERNIGHT MINS BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH FORECAST MINS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. THIS FORECAST IS AT OR NEAR RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE LATE APRIL INSOLATION TOMORROW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TOMORROW (FROM RECORD/NEAR RECORD
COLD VALUES TO START THE DAY) AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RECOVER NICELY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN -2 C TO ZERO BY DAY`S END...WITH NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATING TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACHING RIGHT AT 850 MB.
NAM CU RULE VALUES ARE SOLIDLY POSITIVE TOMORROW...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THUS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CLOSE CALL ON POTENTIAL SHOWERS ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS STRONG UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEAST...SENDING PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE NORTHEAST...BUT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE BRICK WALL
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE FORM OF THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND
EXTREMELY DRY AIR (850 MB DEW PT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-40 C) IN
PLACE...SHUNTING THE UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
JUST THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE VERY TIGHT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE
FORECASTED TO CLIP SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH THE 12Z CANADIAN AND GFS ARE AGRESSIVE
WITH THE RAIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH THE NAM BEING
ONE OF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE WILL BE WITH THE 12Z EURO
WHICH IS MORE OF MIDDLE GROUND. WILL BE FEATURING CHANCE POPS TO
THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGH CHANCE/BORDERLINE LIKELY POPS AT THE
OHIO BORDER...AS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION IS THE
OVER RIGHTING FACTOR IN SKEWING THE POPS HIGHER FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.
ALSO...THERE IS SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PV ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
RATHER QUIET AS FAR AS ANY PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED.  UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL STILL BE OF INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A
WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS WILL BE A NICE WELCOME CONSIDERING THE COLD
TEMPS THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TODAY IS WEAKENING...AS SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR DECREASING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES...AND WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LEADING TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH THE LONG FETCH AND
FUNNELING...STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE WITHIN SAGINAW BAY...WHERE
WINDS COULD REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
WAVES AROUND 4 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA AND FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 05Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM ABOUT 300-310 DEGREES...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS COULD POTENTIALLY LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO TIME INTO 18Z TAFS. WILL AMEND IF TRENDS START TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SF/SS
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231627
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA AND FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 05Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM ABOUT 300-310 DEGREES...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS COULD POTENTIALLY LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO TIME INTO 18Z TAFS. WILL AMEND IF TRENDS START TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231627
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA AND FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 05Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM ABOUT 300-310 DEGREES...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS COULD POTENTIALLY LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO TIME INTO 18Z TAFS. WILL AMEND IF TRENDS START TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231627
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA AND FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 05Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM ABOUT 300-310 DEGREES...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS COULD POTENTIALLY LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO TIME INTO 18Z TAFS. WILL AMEND IF TRENDS START TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231627
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA AND FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP A LOW VFR STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 00Z TO 05Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM ABOUT 300-310 DEGREES...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILING HEIGHTS COULD POTENTIALLY LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO TIME INTO 18Z TAFS. WILL AMEND IF TRENDS START TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN THE EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231144
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
744 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

CLOUDS REMAIN EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WORK THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL VARY A BIT THIS
MORNING AS THE DIURNAL CYCLE COMMENCES AND ENHANCES THE CLOUD FIELD
WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR BETWEEN 4-7KFT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY AFTER DUSK WHILE CIGS CLEAR
OUT RAPIDLY GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT INTO THE EARLY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231144
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
744 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

CLOUDS REMAIN EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WORK THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL VARY A BIT THIS
MORNING AS THE DIURNAL CYCLE COMMENCES AND ENHANCES THE CLOUD FIELD
WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR BETWEEN 4-7KFT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY AFTER DUSK WHILE CIGS CLEAR
OUT RAPIDLY GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT INTO THE EARLY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231144
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
744 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

CLOUDS REMAIN EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WORK THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL VARY A BIT THIS
MORNING AS THE DIURNAL CYCLE COMMENCES AND ENHANCES THE CLOUD FIELD
WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR BETWEEN 4-7KFT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY AFTER DUSK WHILE CIGS CLEAR
OUT RAPIDLY GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT INTO THE EARLY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231144
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
744 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.AVIATION...

CLOUDS REMAIN EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WORK THROUGH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL VARY A BIT THIS
MORNING AS THE DIURNAL CYCLE COMMENCES AND ENHANCES THE CLOUD FIELD
WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR BETWEEN 4-7KFT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
ABOUT 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY AFTER DUSK WHILE CIGS CLEAR
OUT RAPIDLY GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT INTO THE EARLY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 230737
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

&&

.LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CEILINGS
PREDOMINATELY HOLDING ABOVE 5000 FT THROUGH DAYBREAK.  EXPANSION IN
LOWER VFR DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 230737
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

&&

.LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CEILINGS
PREDOMINATELY HOLDING ABOVE 5000 FT THROUGH DAYBREAK.  EXPANSION IN
LOWER VFR DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 230737
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

&&

.LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CEILINGS
PREDOMINATELY HOLDING ABOVE 5000 FT THROUGH DAYBREAK.  EXPANSION IN
LOWER VFR DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 230737
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WELL THE DOMINATING BROAD UPPER LOW THATS BEEN THE WEATHER STORY FOR
A WEEK NOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS WE WILL REMAIN IN NW
FLOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING RIDGE. THE 500MB COLD POOL WILL SHIFT THE THE NE OVER
QUEBEC WITH JUST ONE ADDITIONAL NARROW FILAMENT OF COLD AIR SLIDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE 850MB WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL SHOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FROM -10C TO -
5C. SO THERMALLY SPEAKING WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER DAY OF STEEP LL
LAPSE RATES BUT MIXING DEPTHS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 5-6KFT. LOOKS
LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD INVERSION SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY LEADING
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THOUGH IN THE
EVENING WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT SOME. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY START INCHING UPWARD. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY...NOTING THE NARROW LAYER
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES FROM OVERACHIEVING CLOUDS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SO MINIMAL WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
THE COLD AIR STILL LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THIS
WILL DROP US TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE
DETROIT METRO...WHICH ITSELF WILL FALL TO AROUND 30.

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996) SAGINAW...25 (1918) DETROIT...27 (1892)

&&

.LONG TERM...

RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-
CORNERS REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 5-10KFT WILL BE 30C OR GREATER AND 15C OR SO AT
THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. NOTHING MORE THAN A PARTIAL
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED AS UPPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING
OVER THE SIERRAS SPILLS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP
MIXING AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING 50 TO
55. DOMINANCE OF THE LAKE AGGREGATE DOWN LOW WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD FRACTION WILL BE KEY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT EVEN MODERATE RADIATING WILL SUPPORT
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/LOW 30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE ONLY REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 00Z PROGS CONTINUE TO
CONFINE THE BULK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING 4-CORNERS
WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SHOWN
TO REACH UP TO AROUND 8 MILE. SEVERAL HOURS OF WEAK FORCING WILL
REALLY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF OVER THE AREA WHICH NOT ONLY SEEMS
UNREALISTIC, BUT THE MODEL`S OWN SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY NOT CONVINCING
AND WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA. THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR
MUCH MORE REASONABLE IN TERMS OF QPF PLACEMENT. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT STILL FAVOR
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. INCREASING FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY BENEATH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 50S...ANY DURATION OF PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD POTENTIALLY COOL SOUTHERN AREAS BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH NEAR
GALES EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FETCH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CEILINGS
PREDOMINATELY HOLDING ABOVE 5000 FT THROUGH DAYBREAK.  EXPANSION IN
LOWER VFR DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 230357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CEILINGS
PREDOMINATELY HOLDING ABOVE 5000 FT THROUGH DAYBREAK.  EXPANSION IN
LOWER VFR DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

BROAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TONIGHT...FILLING IN A LITTLE AS IT DOES. THIS
WILL ALLOW ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS EVENING...PER RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT (WHICH IS PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH ABOUT 800MB) WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD POCKET OF AIR...ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...THEN
TAPER AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (MOSTLY IN
THE 40S) NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES OUTSIDE OF BRIEF LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN QUICK BURSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE MIXED LAYER SHRINKS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
WEAKEN THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS LATE SOUTH OF M-59. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INSULATE US
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

LONG TERM...

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE /TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z/. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE A FLURRY/SPRINKLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH LOWER MIXING DEPTHS AND LESS MOISTURE IN
THE DGZ COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE RELATIVE TO TODAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
ALL...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS.

CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING
SKIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE COLD. LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE GRADIENT AS H10 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOA 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB...SO FULL DECOUPLING MAY NOT BE
REALIZED. HAVE TRIED TO WORK THIS IDEA INTO LOW TEMP FORECAST WITH
LOWEST TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF US 23/I-75...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY. RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996)
SAGINAW...25 (1918)
DETROIT...27 (1892)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND WITH NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE GRIP OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TURNING NE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER IN THE THUMB AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT
SYSTEM COMING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  A POSITIVE
NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY START TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE COOLER TEMPS THAT HAVE HELD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DT/SS
MARINE.......DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 230357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CEILINGS
PREDOMINATELY HOLDING ABOVE 5000 FT THROUGH DAYBREAK.  EXPANSION IN
LOWER VFR DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT. MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

BROAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TONIGHT...FILLING IN A LITTLE AS IT DOES. THIS
WILL ALLOW ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS EVENING...PER RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT (WHICH IS PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH ABOUT 800MB) WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD POCKET OF AIR...ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...THEN
TAPER AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (MOSTLY IN
THE 40S) NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES OUTSIDE OF BRIEF LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN QUICK BURSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE MIXED LAYER SHRINKS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
WEAKEN THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS LATE SOUTH OF M-59. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INSULATE US
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

LONG TERM...

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE /TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z/. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE A FLURRY/SPRINKLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH LOWER MIXING DEPTHS AND LESS MOISTURE IN
THE DGZ COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE RELATIVE TO TODAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
ALL...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS.

CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING
SKIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE COLD. LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE GRADIENT AS H10 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOA 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB...SO FULL DECOUPLING MAY NOT BE
REALIZED. HAVE TRIED TO WORK THIS IDEA INTO LOW TEMP FORECAST WITH
LOWEST TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF US 23/I-75...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY. RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996)
SAGINAW...25 (1918)
DETROIT...27 (1892)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND WITH NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE GRIP OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TURNING NE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER IN THE THUMB AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT
SYSTEM COMING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  A POSITIVE
NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY START TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE COOLER TEMPS THAT HAVE HELD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DT/SS
MARINE.......DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 222304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015


.AVIATION...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
BOTH WIND GUST SPEED AND FREQUENCY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING.  THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A STEADY REDUCTION IN THE
COVERAGE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH THIS TIME.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...GREATER FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT AS ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS INTO A NOCTURNAL MODE.  UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CEILING VARYING WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT
LAYER...LEAVING LOWER CONFIDENCE IN BOTH FREQUENCY AND DURATION OF
SEEING CEILINGS AT/BELOW 5000FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.  GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY AS DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPANSION ENSUES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING AND
  TONIGHT.  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

BROAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TONIGHT...FILLING IN A LITTLE AS IT DOES. THIS
WILL ALLOW ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS EVENING...PER RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT (WHICH IS PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH ABOUT 800MB) WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD POCKET OF AIR...ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...THEN
TAPER AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (MOSTLY IN
THE 40S) NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES OUTSIDE OF BRIEF LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN QUICK BURSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE MIXED LAYER SHRINKS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
WEAKEN THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS LATE SOUTH OF M-59. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INSULATE US
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

LONG TERM...

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE /TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z/. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE A FLURRY/SPRINKLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH LOWER MIXING DEPTHS AND LESS MOISTURE IN
THE DGZ COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE RELATIVE TO TODAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
ALL...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS.

CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING
SKIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE COLD. LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE GRADIENT AS H10 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOA 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB...SO FULL DECOUPLING MAY NOT BE
REALIZED. HAVE TRIED TO WORK THIS IDEA INTO LOW TEMP FORECAST WITH
LOWEST TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF US 23/I-75...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY. RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996)
SAGINAW...25 (1918)
DETROIT...27 (1892)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND WITH NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE GRIP OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TURNING NE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER IN THE THUMB AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT
SYSTEM COMING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  A POSITIVE
NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY START TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE COOLER TEMPS THAT HAVE HELD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DT/SS
MARINE.......DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 222304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015


.AVIATION...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
BOTH WIND GUST SPEED AND FREQUENCY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING.  THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A STEADY REDUCTION IN THE
COVERAGE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH THIS TIME.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...GREATER FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT AS ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS INTO A NOCTURNAL MODE.  UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CEILING VARYING WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT
LAYER...LEAVING LOWER CONFIDENCE IN BOTH FREQUENCY AND DURATION OF
SEEING CEILINGS AT/BELOW 5000FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.  GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY AS DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPANSION ENSUES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING AND
  TONIGHT.  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

BROAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TONIGHT...FILLING IN A LITTLE AS IT DOES. THIS
WILL ALLOW ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS EVENING...PER RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT (WHICH IS PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH ABOUT 800MB) WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD POCKET OF AIR...ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...THEN
TAPER AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (MOSTLY IN
THE 40S) NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES OUTSIDE OF BRIEF LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN QUICK BURSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE MIXED LAYER SHRINKS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
WEAKEN THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS LATE SOUTH OF M-59. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INSULATE US
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

LONG TERM...

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE /TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z/. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE A FLURRY/SPRINKLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH LOWER MIXING DEPTHS AND LESS MOISTURE IN
THE DGZ COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE RELATIVE TO TODAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
ALL...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS.

CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING
SKIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE COLD. LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE GRADIENT AS H10 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOA 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB...SO FULL DECOUPLING MAY NOT BE
REALIZED. HAVE TRIED TO WORK THIS IDEA INTO LOW TEMP FORECAST WITH
LOWEST TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF US 23/I-75...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY. RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996)
SAGINAW...25 (1918)
DETROIT...27 (1892)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND WITH NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE GRIP OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TURNING NE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER IN THE THUMB AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT
SYSTEM COMING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  A POSITIVE
NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY START TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE COOLER TEMPS THAT HAVE HELD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DT/SS
MARINE.......DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 222304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015


.AVIATION...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
BOTH WIND GUST SPEED AND FREQUENCY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING.  THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A STEADY REDUCTION IN THE
COVERAGE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH THIS TIME.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...GREATER FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT AS ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS INTO A NOCTURNAL MODE.  UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CEILING VARYING WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT
LAYER...LEAVING LOWER CONFIDENCE IN BOTH FREQUENCY AND DURATION OF
SEEING CEILINGS AT/BELOW 5000FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.  GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY AS DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPANSION ENSUES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING AND
  TONIGHT.  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

BROAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TONIGHT...FILLING IN A LITTLE AS IT DOES. THIS
WILL ALLOW ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS EVENING...PER RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT (WHICH IS PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH ABOUT 800MB) WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD POCKET OF AIR...ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...THEN
TAPER AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (MOSTLY IN
THE 40S) NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES OUTSIDE OF BRIEF LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN QUICK BURSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE MIXED LAYER SHRINKS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
WEAKEN THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS LATE SOUTH OF M-59. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INSULATE US
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

LONG TERM...

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE /TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z/. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE A FLURRY/SPRINKLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH LOWER MIXING DEPTHS AND LESS MOISTURE IN
THE DGZ COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE RELATIVE TO TODAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
ALL...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS.

CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING
SKIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE COLD. LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE GRADIENT AS H10 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOA 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB...SO FULL DECOUPLING MAY NOT BE
REALIZED. HAVE TRIED TO WORK THIS IDEA INTO LOW TEMP FORECAST WITH
LOWEST TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF US 23/I-75...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY. RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996)
SAGINAW...25 (1918)
DETROIT...27 (1892)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND WITH NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE GRIP OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TURNING NE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER IN THE THUMB AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT
SYSTEM COMING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  A POSITIVE
NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY START TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE COOLER TEMPS THAT HAVE HELD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DT/SS
MARINE.......DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 222304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015


.AVIATION...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
BOTH WIND GUST SPEED AND FREQUENCY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING.  THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A STEADY REDUCTION IN THE
COVERAGE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH THIS TIME.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED COLD MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.  CEILINGS PREDOMINATELY CENTERED
WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT RANGE.  COVERAGE MAY TEND TO THIN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE RENEWED DIURNAL EXPANSION AFTER
14Z THURSDAY.  GUST POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
OUT OF NORTHWEST.

FOR DTW...GREATER FLUCTUATION IN CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT AS ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS INTO A NOCTURNAL MODE.  UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CEILING VARYING WITHIN THE 4000 TO 7000 FT
LAYER...LEAVING LOWER CONFIDENCE IN BOTH FREQUENCY AND DURATION OF
SEEING CEILINGS AT/BELOW 5000FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.  GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON THURSDAY AS DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPANSION ENSUES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING AND
  TONIGHT.  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

BROAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TONIGHT...FILLING IN A LITTLE AS IT DOES. THIS
WILL ALLOW ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS EVENING...PER RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT (WHICH IS PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH ABOUT 800MB) WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD POCKET OF AIR...ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...THEN
TAPER AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (MOSTLY IN
THE 40S) NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES OUTSIDE OF BRIEF LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN QUICK BURSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE MIXED LAYER SHRINKS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
WEAKEN THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS LATE SOUTH OF M-59. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INSULATE US
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

LONG TERM...

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE /TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z/. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE A FLURRY/SPRINKLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH LOWER MIXING DEPTHS AND LESS MOISTURE IN
THE DGZ COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE RELATIVE TO TODAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
ALL...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS.

CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING
SKIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE COLD. LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE GRADIENT AS H10 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOA 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB...SO FULL DECOUPLING MAY NOT BE
REALIZED. HAVE TRIED TO WORK THIS IDEA INTO LOW TEMP FORECAST WITH
LOWEST TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF US 23/I-75...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY. RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996)
SAGINAW...25 (1918)
DETROIT...27 (1892)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND WITH NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE GRIP OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TURNING NE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER IN THE THUMB AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT
SYSTEM COMING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  A POSITIVE
NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY START TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE COOLER TEMPS THAT HAVE HELD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK.

MARINE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DT/SS
MARINE.......DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 221959
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
359 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

BROAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TONIGHT...FILLING IN A LITTLE AS IT DOES. THIS
WILL ALLOW ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS EVENING...PER RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT (WHICH IS PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH ABOUT 800MB) WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD POCKET OF AIR...ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...THEN
TAPER AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (MOSTLY IN
THE 40S) NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES OUTSIDE OF BRIEF LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN QUICK BURSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE MIXED LAYER SHRINKS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
WEAKEN THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS LATE SOUTH OF M-59. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INSULATE US
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM...

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE /TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z/. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE A FLURRY/SPRINKLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH LOWER MIXING DEPTHS AND LESS MOISTURE IN
THE DGZ COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE RELATIVE TO TODAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
ALL...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS.

CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING
SKIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE COLD. LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE GRADIENT AS H10 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOA 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB...SO FULL DECOUPLING MAY NOT BE
REALIZED. HAVE TRIED TO WORK THIS IDEA INTO LOW TEMP FORECAST WITH
LOWEST TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF US 23/I-75...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY. RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996)
SAGINAW...25 (1918)
DETROIT...27 (1892)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND WITH NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE GRIP OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TURNING NE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER IN THE THUMB AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT
SYSTEM COMING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  A POSITIVE
NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY START TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE COOLER TEMPS THAT HAVE HELD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 124 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO INTO
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOSTLY CONSIST OF SNOW...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CAUSE LITTLE
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES OR ACCUMULATE. A FEW DROPS TO IFR
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AT MBS HOWEVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT TO KEEP BKN CEILINGS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR...BUT WILL KEEP
FORECAST VFR AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET AROUND THIS TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 00Z. LOW
  CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT
  MAY SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DT/SS
MARINE.......DT
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 221959
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
359 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

BROAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TONIGHT...FILLING IN A LITTLE AS IT DOES. THIS
WILL ALLOW ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON THIS EVENING...PER RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT (WHICH IS PROVIDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH ABOUT 800MB) WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND COLD POCKET OF AIR...ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...THEN
TAPER AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO BORDER. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING (MOSTLY IN
THE 40S) NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES OUTSIDE OF BRIEF LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN QUICK BURSTS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS THE MIXED LAYER SHRINKS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD COVER FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ELEMENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL WARM TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
WEAKEN THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THINK WE COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS LATE SOUTH OF M-59. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP INSULATE US
TONIGHT...AND EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM...

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AGAIN
TOMORROW WITH THE H85 THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE /TEMPS OF -6 TO -10C
AT 18Z/. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE
LOW OVER MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE A FLURRY/SPRINKLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH LOWER MIXING DEPTHS AND LESS MOISTURE IN
THE DGZ COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE RELATIVE TO TODAY. A
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
ALL...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
AND WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS.

CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLEARING
SKIES LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE COLD. LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE GRADIENT AS H10 GEOSTROPHIC WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOA 10 KT FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB...SO FULL DECOUPLING MAY NOT BE
REALIZED. HAVE TRIED TO WORK THIS IDEA INTO LOW TEMP FORECAST WITH
LOWEST TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF US 23/I-75...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY. RECORD VALUES FOR APRIL 24TH:

FLINT...25 (1996)
SAGINAW...25 (1918)
DETROIT...27 (1892)

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AND WITH NEAR-FULL
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE GRIP OF THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TURNING NE WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER IN THE THUMB AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT
SYSTEM COMING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  A POSITIVE
NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY START TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE COOLER TEMPS THAT HAVE HELD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE HURON...BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH TO ABSTAIN FROM ISSUING A GALE WARNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ZONES FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STILL REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 124 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO INTO
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOSTLY CONSIST OF SNOW...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CAUSE LITTLE
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES OR ACCUMULATE. A FEW DROPS TO IFR
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AT MBS HOWEVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT TO KEEP BKN CEILINGS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR...BUT WILL KEEP
FORECAST VFR AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET AROUND THIS TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 00Z. LOW
  CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT
  MAY SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DT/SS
MARINE.......DT
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 221724
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO INTO
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOSTLY CONSIST OF SNOW...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CAUSE LITTLE
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES OR ACCUMULATE. A FEW DROPS TO IFR
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AT MBS HOWEVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT TO KEEP BKN CEILINGS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR...BUT WILL KEEP
FORECAST VFR AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET AROUND THIS TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 00Z. LOW
  CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT
  MAY SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS SEVERAL DAYS OVER AND PAST ITS PRIME
THUS IT WILL SLOWLY BE FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING
DEPTHS JUST 50-100MB LOWER THAN TUESDAY...AROUND 800MB. THE COLD
POOL AT 500MB HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE AREA BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH DROPPING THOUGH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. 850/700 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE -7/-17C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BELOW -11C.

MODELS UNDER FORECAST THE LL JET TUESDAY BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS PEAKING
AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 650MB WITH WINDS >=50 KNOTS DOWN TO 775MB. THIS
ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO PEAK CLOSE TO 50 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF 696
CORRIDOR. WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW
AVERAGING 30-40 KNOTS. THEY DO ALL AGREE THAT WITH THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRONG CORE OF LL JET WINDS SHIFTING
SE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. CAA HAS COOLED MOST OF
THE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO WITH THE BULK OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW GROWTH WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS. WITH
SFC TEMPS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SO LONG AND HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 40S...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY LIGHT
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MELTING AFTER THE SHOWER PASSES.

LASTLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCEMENT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE OFFING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMMENCES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AS LOWER MICHIGAN
REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN BROAD DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND APRIL INSOLATION WILL COMBINE AGAIN TO PRODUCE A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCU AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES OF -11C
TO BEGIN THE DAY AND HIGH CLOUD FRACTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 40S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. DECOUPLING MAY STRUGGLE AT FIRST GIVEN
H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND PROGS AROUND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD OCCUR EVENTUALLY AS SKIES CLEAR. NO ARGUMENTS WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THE REBOUNDING
THERMAL FIELD WILL APPROACH 0C AT 850MB BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COLUMN IN PLACE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. NW WINDS WILL GUST NO HIGHER THAN 15
MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 TO 55 ACROSS SE MICHIGAN.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED 4-CORNERS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AUGMENTED BY LAKE INFLUENCES IN
PLACE AND FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
POTENTIAL. ATTM...NO WELL-DEFINED OR NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL HELP
CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...50S...INTO
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKES ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR...TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS REMAINS RATHER STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. NEAR GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUST IS POSSIBLE...GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     442-443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 221724
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO INTO
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOSTLY CONSIST OF SNOW...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CAUSE LITTLE
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES OR ACCUMULATE. A FEW DROPS TO IFR
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AT MBS HOWEVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST AND WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO
STICK AROUND OVERNIGHT TO KEEP BKN CEILINGS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR...BUT WILL KEEP
FORECAST VFR AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE 5000 FEET AROUND THIS TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 00Z. LOW
  CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT
  MAY SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS SEVERAL DAYS OVER AND PAST ITS PRIME
THUS IT WILL SLOWLY BE FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING
DEPTHS JUST 50-100MB LOWER THAN TUESDAY...AROUND 800MB. THE COLD
POOL AT 500MB HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE AREA BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH DROPPING THOUGH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. 850/700 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE -7/-17C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BELOW -11C.

MODELS UNDER FORECAST THE LL JET TUESDAY BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS PEAKING
AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 650MB WITH WINDS >=50 KNOTS DOWN TO 775MB. THIS
ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO PEAK CLOSE TO 50 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF 696
CORRIDOR. WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW
AVERAGING 30-40 KNOTS. THEY DO ALL AGREE THAT WITH THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRONG CORE OF LL JET WINDS SHIFTING
SE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. CAA HAS COOLED MOST OF
THE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO WITH THE BULK OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW GROWTH WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS. WITH
SFC TEMPS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SO LONG AND HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 40S...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY LIGHT
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MELTING AFTER THE SHOWER PASSES.

LASTLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCEMENT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE OFFING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMMENCES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AS LOWER MICHIGAN
REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN BROAD DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND APRIL INSOLATION WILL COMBINE AGAIN TO PRODUCE A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCU AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES OF -11C
TO BEGIN THE DAY AND HIGH CLOUD FRACTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 40S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. DECOUPLING MAY STRUGGLE AT FIRST GIVEN
H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND PROGS AROUND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD OCCUR EVENTUALLY AS SKIES CLEAR. NO ARGUMENTS WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THE REBOUNDING
THERMAL FIELD WILL APPROACH 0C AT 850MB BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COLUMN IN PLACE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. NW WINDS WILL GUST NO HIGHER THAN 15
MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 TO 55 ACROSS SE MICHIGAN.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED 4-CORNERS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AUGMENTED BY LAKE INFLUENCES IN
PLACE AND FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
POTENTIAL. ATTM...NO WELL-DEFINED OR NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL HELP
CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...50S...INTO
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKES ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR...TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS REMAINS RATHER STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. NEAR GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUST IS POSSIBLE...GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     442-443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 221131
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
731 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015


.AVIATION...

LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY
OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY BUT WARMING SFC TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS QUESTIONABLE
SO WILL TEMPO THIS FIRST BATCH MOVING THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z AND
AMEND FOR AFTERNOON COVERAGE LATER. CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT DIPPING TO MVFR WITHIN
PASSING SHOWERS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN PROMOTE DEEP MIXING
WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY. THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
  TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THIS MORNING...MIXING WITH RAIN THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS SEVERAL DAYS OVER AND PAST ITS PRIME
THUS IT WILL SLOWLY BE FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING
DEPTHS JUST 50-100MB LOWER THAN TUESDAY...AROUND 800MB. THE COLD
POOL AT 500MB HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE AREA BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH DROPPING THOUGH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. 850/700 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE -7/-17C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BELOW -11C.

MODELS UNDER FORECAST THE LL JET TUESDAY BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS PEAKING
AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 650MB WITH WINDS >=50 KNOTS DOWN TO 775MB. THIS
ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO PEAK CLOSE TO 50 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF 696
CORRIDOR. WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW
AVERAGING 30-40 KNOTS. THEY DO ALL AGREE THAT WITH THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRONG CORE OF LL JET WINDS SHIFTING
SE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. CAA HAS COOLED MOST OF
THE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO WITH THE BULK OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW GROWTH WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS. WITH
SFC TEMPS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SO LONG AND HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 40S...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY LIGHT
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MELTING AFTER THE SHOWER PASSES.

LASTLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCEMENT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE OFFING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMMENCES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AS LOWER MICHIGAN
REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN BROAD DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND APRIL INSOLATION WILL COMBINE AGAIN TO PRODUCE A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCU AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES OF -11C
TO BEGIN THE DAY AND HIGH CLOUD FRACTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 40S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. DECOUPLING MAY STRUGGLE AT FIRST GIVEN
H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND PROGS AROUND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD OCCUR EVENTUALLY AS SKIES CLEAR. NO ARGUMENTS WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THE REBOUNDING
THERMAL FIELD WILL APPROACH 0C AT 850MB BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COLUMN IN PLACE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. NW WINDS WILL GUST NO HIGHER THAN 15
MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 TO 55 ACROSS SE MICHIGAN.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED 4-CORNERS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AUGMENTED BY LAKE INFLUENCES IN
PLACE AND FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
POTENTIAL. ATTM...NO WELL-DEFINED OR NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL HELP
CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...50S...INTO
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKES ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR...TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS REMAINS RATHER STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. NEAR GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUST IS POSSIBLE...GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     442-443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 221131
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
731 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015


.AVIATION...

LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY
OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY BUT WARMING SFC TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS QUESTIONABLE
SO WILL TEMPO THIS FIRST BATCH MOVING THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z AND
AMEND FOR AFTERNOON COVERAGE LATER. CEILINGS WILL VARY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT DIPPING TO MVFR WITHIN
PASSING SHOWERS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN PROMOTE DEEP MIXING
WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY. THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY DUE TO WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
  TONIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THIS MORNING...MIXING WITH RAIN THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS SEVERAL DAYS OVER AND PAST ITS PRIME
THUS IT WILL SLOWLY BE FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING
DEPTHS JUST 50-100MB LOWER THAN TUESDAY...AROUND 800MB. THE COLD
POOL AT 500MB HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE AREA BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH DROPPING THOUGH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. 850/700 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE -7/-17C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BELOW -11C.

MODELS UNDER FORECAST THE LL JET TUESDAY BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS PEAKING
AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 650MB WITH WINDS >=50 KNOTS DOWN TO 775MB. THIS
ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO PEAK CLOSE TO 50 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF 696
CORRIDOR. WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW
AVERAGING 30-40 KNOTS. THEY DO ALL AGREE THAT WITH THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRONG CORE OF LL JET WINDS SHIFTING
SE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. CAA HAS COOLED MOST OF
THE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO WITH THE BULK OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW GROWTH WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS. WITH
SFC TEMPS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SO LONG AND HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 40S...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY LIGHT
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MELTING AFTER THE SHOWER PASSES.

LASTLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCEMENT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE OFFING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMMENCES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AS LOWER MICHIGAN
REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN BROAD DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND APRIL INSOLATION WILL COMBINE AGAIN TO PRODUCE A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCU AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES OF -11C
TO BEGIN THE DAY AND HIGH CLOUD FRACTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 40S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. DECOUPLING MAY STRUGGLE AT FIRST GIVEN
H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND PROGS AROUND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD OCCUR EVENTUALLY AS SKIES CLEAR. NO ARGUMENTS WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THE REBOUNDING
THERMAL FIELD WILL APPROACH 0C AT 850MB BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COLUMN IN PLACE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. NW WINDS WILL GUST NO HIGHER THAN 15
MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 TO 55 ACROSS SE MICHIGAN.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED 4-CORNERS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AUGMENTED BY LAKE INFLUENCES IN
PLACE AND FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
POTENTIAL. ATTM...NO WELL-DEFINED OR NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL HELP
CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...50S...INTO
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKES ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR...TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS REMAINS RATHER STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. NEAR GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUST IS POSSIBLE...GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ441.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     442-443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 220720
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS SEVERAL DAYS OVER AND PAST ITS PRIME
THUS IT WILL SLOWLY BE FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING
DEPTHS JUST 50-100MB LOWER THAN TUESDAY...AROUND 800MB. THE COLD
POOL AT 500MB HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE AREA BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH DROPPING THOUGH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. 850/700 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE -7/-17C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BELOW -11C.

MODELS UNDER FORECAST THE LL JET TUESDAY BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS PEAKING
AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 650MB WITH WINDS >=50 KNOTS DOWN TO 775MB. THIS
ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO PEAK CLOSE TO 50 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF 696
CORRIDOR. WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW
AVERAGING 30-40 KNOTS. THEY DO ALL AGREE THAT WITH THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRONG CORE OF LL JET WINDS SHIFTING
SE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. CAA HAS COOLED MOST OF
THE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO WITH THE BULK OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW GROWTH WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS. WITH
SFC TEMPS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SO LONG AND HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 40S...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY LIGHT
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MELTING AFTER THE SHOWER PASSES.

LASTLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCEMENT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE OFFING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMMENCES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AS LOWER MICHIGAN
REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN BROAD DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND APRIL INSOLATION WILL COMBINE AGAIN TO PRODUCE A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCU AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES OF -11C
TO BEGIN THE DAY AND HIGH CLOUD FRACTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 40S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. DECOUPLING MAY STRUGGLE AT FIRST GIVEN
H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND PROGS AROUND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD OCCUR EVENTUALLY AS SKIES CLEAR. NO ARGUMENTS WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THE REBOUNDING
THERMAL FIELD WILL APPROACH 0C AT 850MB BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COLUMN IN PLACE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. NW WINDS WILL GUST NO HIGHER THAN 15
MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 TO 55 ACROSS SE MICHIGAN.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED 4-CORNERS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AUGMENTED BY LAKE INFLUENCES IN
PLACE AND FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
POTENTIAL. ATTM...NO WELL-DEFINED OR NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL HELP
CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...50S...INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKES ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR...TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS REMAINS RATHER STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. NEAR GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUST IS POSSIBLE...GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1142 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A PROGRESSIVE HOLD OF
CONDITIONS LOCALLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THE RESULTING SEASONABLY
COLD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENSURE A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  CEILINGS LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR...LOWEST HEIGHTS EMERGING WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE GUSTY CONDITIONS...WITH
A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RA/SN SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE
  ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 220720
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS SEVERAL DAYS OVER AND PAST ITS PRIME
THUS IT WILL SLOWLY BE FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING
DEPTHS JUST 50-100MB LOWER THAN TUESDAY...AROUND 800MB. THE COLD
POOL AT 500MB HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE AREA BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH DROPPING THOUGH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. 850/700 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE -7/-17C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BELOW -11C.

MODELS UNDER FORECAST THE LL JET TUESDAY BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS PEAKING
AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 650MB WITH WINDS >=50 KNOTS DOWN TO 775MB. THIS
ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO PEAK CLOSE TO 50 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF 696
CORRIDOR. WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW
AVERAGING 30-40 KNOTS. THEY DO ALL AGREE THAT WITH THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRONG CORE OF LL JET WINDS SHIFTING
SE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. CAA HAS COOLED MOST OF
THE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO WITH THE BULK OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW GROWTH WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS. WITH
SFC TEMPS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SO LONG AND HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 40S...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY LIGHT
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MELTING AFTER THE SHOWER PASSES.

LASTLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCEMENT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE OFFING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMMENCES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AS LOWER MICHIGAN
REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN BROAD DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND APRIL INSOLATION WILL COMBINE AGAIN TO PRODUCE A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCU AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES OF -11C
TO BEGIN THE DAY AND HIGH CLOUD FRACTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 40S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. DECOUPLING MAY STRUGGLE AT FIRST GIVEN
H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND PROGS AROUND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD OCCUR EVENTUALLY AS SKIES CLEAR. NO ARGUMENTS WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THE REBOUNDING
THERMAL FIELD WILL APPROACH 0C AT 850MB BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COLUMN IN PLACE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. NW WINDS WILL GUST NO HIGHER THAN 15
MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 TO 55 ACROSS SE MICHIGAN.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED 4-CORNERS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AUGMENTED BY LAKE INFLUENCES IN
PLACE AND FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
POTENTIAL. ATTM...NO WELL-DEFINED OR NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL HELP
CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...50S...INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKES ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR...TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS REMAINS RATHER STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. NEAR GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUST IS POSSIBLE...GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1142 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A PROGRESSIVE HOLD OF
CONDITIONS LOCALLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THE RESULTING SEASONABLY
COLD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENSURE A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  CEILINGS LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR...LOWEST HEIGHTS EMERGING WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE GUSTY CONDITIONS...WITH
A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RA/SN SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE
  ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 220720
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS SEVERAL DAYS OVER AND PAST ITS PRIME
THUS IT WILL SLOWLY BE FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING
DEPTHS JUST 50-100MB LOWER THAN TUESDAY...AROUND 800MB. THE COLD
POOL AT 500MB HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE AREA BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH DROPPING THOUGH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. 850/700 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE -7/-17C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BELOW -11C.

MODELS UNDER FORECAST THE LL JET TUESDAY BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS PEAKING
AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 650MB WITH WINDS >=50 KNOTS DOWN TO 775MB. THIS
ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO PEAK CLOSE TO 50 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF 696
CORRIDOR. WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW
AVERAGING 30-40 KNOTS. THEY DO ALL AGREE THAT WITH THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRONG CORE OF LL JET WINDS SHIFTING
SE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. CAA HAS COOLED MOST OF
THE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO WITH THE BULK OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW GROWTH WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS. WITH
SFC TEMPS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SO LONG AND HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 40S...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY LIGHT
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MELTING AFTER THE SHOWER PASSES.

LASTLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCEMENT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE OFFING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMMENCES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AS LOWER MICHIGAN
REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN BROAD DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND APRIL INSOLATION WILL COMBINE AGAIN TO PRODUCE A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCU AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES OF -11C
TO BEGIN THE DAY AND HIGH CLOUD FRACTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 40S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. DECOUPLING MAY STRUGGLE AT FIRST GIVEN
H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND PROGS AROUND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD OCCUR EVENTUALLY AS SKIES CLEAR. NO ARGUMENTS WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THE REBOUNDING
THERMAL FIELD WILL APPROACH 0C AT 850MB BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COLUMN IN PLACE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. NW WINDS WILL GUST NO HIGHER THAN 15
MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 TO 55 ACROSS SE MICHIGAN.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED 4-CORNERS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AUGMENTED BY LAKE INFLUENCES IN
PLACE AND FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
POTENTIAL. ATTM...NO WELL-DEFINED OR NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL HELP
CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...50S...INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKES ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR...TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS REMAINS RATHER STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. NEAR GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUST IS POSSIBLE...GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1142 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A PROGRESSIVE HOLD OF
CONDITIONS LOCALLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THE RESULTING SEASONABLY
COLD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENSURE A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  CEILINGS LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR...LOWEST HEIGHTS EMERGING WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE GUSTY CONDITIONS...WITH
A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RA/SN SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE
  ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 220720
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW IS SEVERAL DAYS OVER AND PAST ITS PRIME
THUS IT WILL SLOWLY BE FILLING IN THROUGH THE DAY.
REGARDLESS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING
DEPTHS JUST 50-100MB LOWER THAN TUESDAY...AROUND 800MB. THE COLD
POOL AT 500MB HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE AREA BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH DROPPING THOUGH SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. 850/700 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE -7/-17C THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS BELOW -11C.

MODELS UNDER FORECAST THE LL JET TUESDAY BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS PEAKING
AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 650MB WITH WINDS >=50 KNOTS DOWN TO 775MB. THIS
ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO PEAK CLOSE TO 50 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF 696
CORRIDOR. WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE STILL HAVE
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NW FLOW
AVERAGING 30-40 KNOTS. THEY DO ALL AGREE THAT WITH THE SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND THE STRONG CORE OF LL JET WINDS SHIFTING
SE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE GUST POTENTIAL BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE.

AS FOR PRECIP...THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. CAA HAS COOLED MOST OF
THE SOUNDING BELOW ZERO WITH THE BULK OF THE UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH
THE DGZ WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW GROWTH WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS. WITH
SFC TEMPS HAVING BEEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SO LONG AND HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 40S...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANY LIGHT
SNOWFALL QUICKLY MELTING AFTER THE SHOWER PASSES.

LASTLY...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH GETS REINFORCEMENT FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE OFFING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMMENCES WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW AND DIGGING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AS LOWER MICHIGAN
REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN BROAD DEEP LAYER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. MID-
LEVEL COLD POOL AND APRIL INSOLATION WILL COMBINE AGAIN TO PRODUCE A
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD STRATOCU AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES OF -11C
TO BEGIN THE DAY AND HIGH CLOUD FRACTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID 40S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN BREAKUP OF CLOUDS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
RELATIVE TO RECENT NIGHTS. DECOUPLING MAY STRUGGLE AT FIRST GIVEN
H10 GEOSTROPHIC WIND PROGS AROUND 15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD OCCUR EVENTUALLY AS SKIES CLEAR. NO ARGUMENTS WITH 00Z
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN
ADVANCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THE REBOUNDING
THERMAL FIELD WILL APPROACH 0C AT 850MB BY LATE FRIDAY. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COLUMN IN PLACE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. NW WINDS WILL GUST NO HIGHER THAN 15
MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 50 TO 55 ACROSS SE MICHIGAN.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED 4-CORNERS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AUGMENTED BY LAKE INFLUENCES IN
PLACE AND FORCING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
POTENTIAL. ATTM...NO WELL-DEFINED OR NOTEWORTHY POTENTIAL WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL HELP
CONTAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL...50S...INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY FLOW WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKES ERIE AND SAINT CLAIR...TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER AREA WATERS REMAINS RATHER STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS. NEAR GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUST IS POSSIBLE...GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1142 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A PROGRESSIVE HOLD OF
CONDITIONS LOCALLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THE RESULTING SEASONABLY
COLD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENSURE A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  CEILINGS LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR...LOWEST HEIGHTS EMERGING WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE GUSTY CONDITIONS...WITH
A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RA/SN SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE
  ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




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