Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KDTX 281437
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1037 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED CLEARING TREND THIS MORNING AS MVFR STRATUS IS HOLDING
TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  THERE ARE SOME BREAKS ALONG A
FNT-ADG LINE...WHICH INDICATE THE DIRECTION WE/RE HEADED AND EXPECT
A VERY GRADUAL THINNING TREND TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER.  THUS...WHILE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER THAN NORMAL WARMING...HAVE MAINTAINED GOING HIGHS WITH
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR
TODAY. EXPECT NORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO PERSIST...OR
RETURN WITH DAYTIME MIXING...AND LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH FOR SPEED TO SETTLE BELOW 15
KNOTS. POCKETS OF MVFR CEILING DURING THE MORNING WILL MIX INTO VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST BUT REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL
SCATTERING OUT TOWARD EVENING. THE SCATTERED CUMULUS REMNANTS WILL
THEN MIX WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT BUT WITH ANY
CEILING REMAINING EASILY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A BACKING WIND
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY
FROM SE MICHIGAN BUT STILL ABLE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AROUND THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT
REMAINING MOISTURE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THE PATTERN LEAVING THE TRI CITIES DRY AT PRESS TIME
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND SHRINKING EASTWARD ON A PACE TO EXIT
THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND 8 AM.

THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL BOLSTER NORTHERLY
SURFACE WIND AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A POCKET OF 850 MB AIR AT ABOUT 5C RECOVERING
TO ABOUT 7C DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS TRANSLATES THAT
INTO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
800 MB. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THAT ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...BUT ONLY APPROACHING
THE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMP AT DTW WHICH IS 68/1926 WHILE FNT AND
MBS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

HIGH CLOUDS STRIPPING AWAY REVEAL SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
EXPANSION OF OPEN SKY FOR A FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE BUT THESE WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN AS SURFACE HEATING RAMPS UP BY LATE MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GENEROUS CU RESPONSE BUT
WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON CLOUD PATTERN TO LINGER LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING TO
BLEND IN WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO SHARPEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A 5-10 KNOT WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL COOL SPOTS THAT COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 40S BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FROM
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING QUICK SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE EACH DAY WITH
SURFACE HEATING COMBINING WITH COOL AIR ALOFT (H850 TEMPS RUNNING
JUST BELOW 10C THROUGH THIS PERIOD) TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S (COMPARED TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S).

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A VERY WEAK
UPPER WAVE DOWN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
PROGGED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LACK A CAP AND SHOW LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB
RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 9 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED NORTH OF M-59...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 9000 FEET WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.

CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING SOME
TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON TODAY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE WAVES.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON....INCLUDING ALL OF SAGINAW BAY. FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE
ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...GUSTS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BETWEEN 18 AND 23
KNOTS...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MICHIGAN TO RELAX.

THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL THEN REMAIN IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
(UNDER 15 KNOTS) AS ONLY WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ055-MIZ063...UNTIL 8 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 281437
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1037 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED CLEARING TREND THIS MORNING AS MVFR STRATUS IS HOLDING
TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  THERE ARE SOME BREAKS ALONG A
FNT-ADG LINE...WHICH INDICATE THE DIRECTION WE/RE HEADED AND EXPECT
A VERY GRADUAL THINNING TREND TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER.  THUS...WHILE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER THAN NORMAL WARMING...HAVE MAINTAINED GOING HIGHS WITH
EXPECTED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR
TODAY. EXPECT NORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO PERSIST...OR
RETURN WITH DAYTIME MIXING...AND LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH FOR SPEED TO SETTLE BELOW 15
KNOTS. POCKETS OF MVFR CEILING DURING THE MORNING WILL MIX INTO VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST BUT REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL
SCATTERING OUT TOWARD EVENING. THE SCATTERED CUMULUS REMNANTS WILL
THEN MIX WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT BUT WITH ANY
CEILING REMAINING EASILY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A BACKING WIND
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY
FROM SE MICHIGAN BUT STILL ABLE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AROUND THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT
REMAINING MOISTURE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THE PATTERN LEAVING THE TRI CITIES DRY AT PRESS TIME
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND SHRINKING EASTWARD ON A PACE TO EXIT
THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND 8 AM.

THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL BOLSTER NORTHERLY
SURFACE WIND AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A POCKET OF 850 MB AIR AT ABOUT 5C RECOVERING
TO ABOUT 7C DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS TRANSLATES THAT
INTO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
800 MB. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THAT ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...BUT ONLY APPROACHING
THE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMP AT DTW WHICH IS 68/1926 WHILE FNT AND
MBS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

HIGH CLOUDS STRIPPING AWAY REVEAL SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
EXPANSION OF OPEN SKY FOR A FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE BUT THESE WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN AS SURFACE HEATING RAMPS UP BY LATE MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GENEROUS CU RESPONSE BUT
WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON CLOUD PATTERN TO LINGER LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING TO
BLEND IN WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO SHARPEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A 5-10 KNOT WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL COOL SPOTS THAT COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 40S BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FROM
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING QUICK SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE EACH DAY WITH
SURFACE HEATING COMBINING WITH COOL AIR ALOFT (H850 TEMPS RUNNING
JUST BELOW 10C THROUGH THIS PERIOD) TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S (COMPARED TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S).

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A VERY WEAK
UPPER WAVE DOWN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
PROGGED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LACK A CAP AND SHOW LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB
RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 9 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED NORTH OF M-59...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 9000 FEET WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.

CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING SOME
TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON TODAY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE WAVES.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON....INCLUDING ALL OF SAGINAW BAY. FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE
ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...GUSTS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BETWEEN 18 AND 23
KNOTS...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MICHIGAN TO RELAX.

THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL THEN REMAIN IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
(UNDER 15 KNOTS) AS ONLY WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ055-MIZ063...UNTIL 8 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 281123
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
723 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR
TODAY. EXPECT NORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO PERSIST...OR
RETURN WITH DAYTIME MIXING...AND LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH FOR SPEED TO SETTLE BELOW 15
KNOTS. POCKETS OF MVFR CEILING DURING THE MORNING WILL MIX INTO VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST BUT REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL
SCATTERING OUT TOWARD EVENING. THE SCATTERED CUMULUS REMNANTS WILL
THEN MIX WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT BUT WITH ANY
CEILING REMAINING EASILY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A BACKING WIND
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY
FROM SE MICHIGAN BUT STILL ABLE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AROUND THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT
REMAINING MOISTURE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THE PATTERN LEAVING THE TRI CITIES DRY AT PRESS TIME
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND SHRINKING EASTWARD ON A PACE TO EXIT
THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND 8 AM.

THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL BOLSTER NORTHERLY
SURFACE WIND AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A POCKET OF 850 MB AIR AT ABOUT 5C RECOVERING
TO ABOUT 7C DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS TRANSLATES THAT
INTO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
800 MB. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THAT ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...BUT ONLY APPROACHING
THE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMP AT DTW WHICH IS 68/1926 WHILE FNT AND
MBS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

HIGH CLOUDS STRIPPING AWAY REVEAL SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
EXPANSION OF OPEN SKY FOR A FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE BUT THESE WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN AS SURFACE HEATING RAMPS UP BY LATE MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GENEROUS CU RESPONSE BUT
WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON CLOUD PATTERN TO LINGER LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING TO
BLEND IN WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO SHARPEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A 5-10 KNOT WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL COOL SPOTS THAT COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 40S BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FROM
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING QUICK SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE EACH DAY WITH
SURFACE HEATING COMBINING WITH COOL AIR ALOFT (H850 TEMPS RUNNING
JUST BELOW 10C THROUGH THIS PERIOD) TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S (COMPARED TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S).

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A VERY WEAK
UPPER WAVE DOWN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
PROGGED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LACK A CAP AND SHOW LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB
RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 9 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED NORTH OF M-59...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 9000 FEET WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.

CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING SOME
TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON TODAY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE WAVES.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON....INCLUDING ALL OF SAGINAW BAY. FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE
ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...GUSTS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BETWEEN 18 AND 23
KNOTS...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MICHIGAN TO RELAX.

THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL THEN REMAIN IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
(UNDER 15 KNOTS) AS ONLY WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ055-MIZ063...UNTIL 8 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 281123
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
723 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR
TODAY. EXPECT NORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TO PERSIST...OR
RETURN WITH DAYTIME MIXING...AND LAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH FOR SPEED TO SETTLE BELOW 15
KNOTS. POCKETS OF MVFR CEILING DURING THE MORNING WILL MIX INTO VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST BUT REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET UNTIL
SCATTERING OUT TOWARD EVENING. THE SCATTERED CUMULUS REMNANTS WILL
THEN MIX WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT BUT WITH ANY
CEILING REMAINING EASILY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A BACKING WIND
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 345 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY
FROM SE MICHIGAN BUT STILL ABLE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AROUND THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT
REMAINING MOISTURE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THE PATTERN LEAVING THE TRI CITIES DRY AT PRESS TIME
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND SHRINKING EASTWARD ON A PACE TO EXIT
THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND 8 AM.

THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL BOLSTER NORTHERLY
SURFACE WIND AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A POCKET OF 850 MB AIR AT ABOUT 5C RECOVERING
TO ABOUT 7C DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS TRANSLATES THAT
INTO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
800 MB. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THAT ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...BUT ONLY APPROACHING
THE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMP AT DTW WHICH IS 68/1926 WHILE FNT AND
MBS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

HIGH CLOUDS STRIPPING AWAY REVEAL SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
EXPANSION OF OPEN SKY FOR A FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE BUT THESE WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN AS SURFACE HEATING RAMPS UP BY LATE MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GENEROUS CU RESPONSE BUT
WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON CLOUD PATTERN TO LINGER LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING TO
BLEND IN WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO SHARPEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A 5-10 KNOT WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL COOL SPOTS THAT COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 40S BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FROM
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING QUICK SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE EACH DAY WITH
SURFACE HEATING COMBINING WITH COOL AIR ALOFT (H850 TEMPS RUNNING
JUST BELOW 10C THROUGH THIS PERIOD) TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S (COMPARED TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S).

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A VERY WEAK
UPPER WAVE DOWN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
PROGGED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LACK A CAP AND SHOW LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB
RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 9 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED NORTH OF M-59...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 9000 FEET WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.

CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING SOME
TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON TODAY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE WAVES.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON....INCLUDING ALL OF SAGINAW BAY. FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE
ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...GUSTS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BETWEEN 18 AND 23
KNOTS...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MICHIGAN TO RELAX.

THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL THEN REMAIN IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
(UNDER 15 KNOTS) AS ONLY WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ055-MIZ063...UNTIL 8 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 280745
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
345 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY
FROM SE MICHIGAN BUT STILL ABLE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AROUND THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT
REMAINING MOISTURE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THE PATTERN LEAVING THE TRI CITIES DRY AT PRESS TIME
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND SHRINKING EASTWARD ON A PACE TO EXIT
THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND 8 AM.

THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL BOLSTER NORTHERLY
SURFACE WIND AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A POCKET OF 850 MB AIR AT ABOUT 5C RECOVERING
TO ABOUT 7C DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS TRANSLATES THAT
INTO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
800 MB. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THAT ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...BUT ONLY APPROACHING
THE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMP AT DTW WHICH IS 68/1926 WHILE FNT AND
MBS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

HIGH CLOUDS STRIPPING AWAY REVEAL SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
EXPANSION OF OPEN SKY FOR A FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE BUT THESE WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN AS SURFACE HEATING RAMPS UP BY LATE MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GENEROUS CU RESPONSE BUT
WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON CLOUD PATTERN TO LINGER LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING TO
BLEND IN WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO SHARPEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A 5-10 KNOT WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL COOL SPOTS THAT COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 40S BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FROM
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING QUICK SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE EACH DAY WITH
SURFACE HEATING COMBINING WITH COOL AIR ALOFT (H850 TEMPS RUNNING
JUST BELOW 10C THROUGH THIS PERIOD) TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S (COMPARED TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S).

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A VERY WEAK
UPPER WAVE DOWN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
PROGGED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LACK A CAP AND SHOW LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB
RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 9 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED NORTH OF M-59...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 9000 FEET WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.

CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING SOME
TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON TODAY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE WAVES.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON....INCLUDING ALL OF SAGINAW BAY. FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE
ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...GUSTS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BETWEEN 18 AND 23
KNOTS...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MICHIGAN TO RELAX.

THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL THEN REMAIN IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
(UNDER 15 KNOTS) AS ONLY WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DEFORMATION SHRAS WILL WRAP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE
WILL USHER IN MVFR/LOWER VFR STRATUS...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED...WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
HELP TO ERODE/LIFT STRATUS WITH TIME AND SCT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...SHRAS WILL PERSIST OFF/ON THROUGH 08Z/09Z BEFORE EXITING
SHORTWAVE PULLS DEFORMATION SHRAS EAST WITH IT. CIGS WILL FALL BELOW
5000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AT LEAST BKN INTO MIDDAY MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049...UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ055-MIZ063...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).










000
FXUS63 KDTX 280745
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
345 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AWAY
FROM SE MICHIGAN BUT STILL ABLE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AROUND THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS
INDICATE THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EFFICIENTLY WRING OUT
REMAINING MOISTURE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THE PATTERN LEAVING THE TRI CITIES DRY AT PRESS TIME
AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND SHRINKING EASTWARD ON A PACE TO EXIT
THE REST OF THE AREA AROUND 8 AM.

THE CONTINUED EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE LOW WILL BOLSTER NORTHERLY
SURFACE WIND AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A POCKET OF 850 MB AIR AT ABOUT 5C RECOVERING
TO ABOUT 7C DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS TRANSLATES THAT
INTO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
800 MB. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THAT ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 80S DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY...BUT ONLY APPROACHING
THE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMP AT DTW WHICH IS 68/1926 WHILE FNT AND
MBS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

HIGH CLOUDS STRIPPING AWAY REVEAL SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
EXPANSION OF OPEN SKY FOR A FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE BUT THESE WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN AS SURFACE HEATING RAMPS UP BY LATE MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GENEROUS CU RESPONSE BUT
WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
AFTERNOON CLOUD PATTERN TO LINGER LONG ENOUGH INTO THE EVENING TO
BLEND IN WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL CENTER IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO SHARPEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A 5-10 KNOT WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING FULL
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL COOL SPOTS THAT COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 40S BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FROM
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING QUICK SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE EACH DAY WITH
SURFACE HEATING COMBINING WITH COOL AIR ALOFT (H850 TEMPS RUNNING
JUST BELOW 10C THROUGH THIS PERIOD) TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S (COMPARED TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S).

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A VERY WEAK
UPPER WAVE DOWN FROM CANADA...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
PROGGED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LACK A CAP AND SHOW LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB
RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 9 C/KM. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE
EXPECTED NORTH OF M-59...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 9000 FEET WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.

CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING SOME
TROUGHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON TODAY...IN ADDITION TO LARGE WAVES.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON....INCLUDING ALL OF SAGINAW BAY. FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE
ST CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE...GUSTS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY BETWEEN 18 AND 23
KNOTS...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MICHIGAN TO RELAX.

THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL THEN REMAIN IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
(UNDER 15 KNOTS) AS ONLY WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DEFORMATION SHRAS WILL WRAP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE
WILL USHER IN MVFR/LOWER VFR STRATUS...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED...WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
HELP TO ERODE/LIFT STRATUS WITH TIME AND SCT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...SHRAS WILL PERSIST OFF/ON THROUGH 08Z/09Z BEFORE EXITING
SHORTWAVE PULLS DEFORMATION SHRAS EAST WITH IT. CIGS WILL FALL BELOW
5000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AT LEAST BKN INTO MIDDAY MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049...UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ055-MIZ063...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).











000
FXUS63 KDTX 280353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DEFORMATION SHRAS WILL WRAP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE
WILL USHER IN MVFR/LOWER VFR STRATUS...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED...WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
HELP TO ERODE/LIFT STRATUS WITH TIME AND SCT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...SHRAS WILL PERSIST OFF/ON THROUGH 08Z/09Z BEFORE EXITING
SHORTWAVE PULLS DEFORMATION SHRAS EAST WITH IT. CIGS WILL FALL BELOW
5000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AT LEAST BKN INTO MIDDAY MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049...FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ055-MIZ063...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 280353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DEFORMATION SHRAS WILL WRAP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE FORECAST AS POTENT SHORTWAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. NORTH/NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE
WILL USHER IN MVFR/LOWER VFR STRATUS...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE
DAY MONDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED...WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
HELP TO ERODE/LIFT STRATUS WITH TIME AND SCT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...SHRAS WILL PERSIST OFF/ON THROUGH 08Z/09Z BEFORE EXITING
SHORTWAVE PULLS DEFORMATION SHRAS EAST WITH IT. CIGS WILL FALL BELOW
5000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN AT LEAST BKN INTO MIDDAY MONDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ048-MIZ049...FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...MIZ055-MIZ063...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
     MONDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 272252
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT THROUGH AREA EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN DURING THE
EVENING AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS WAVE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
STRATUS AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT/ERODE WITHIN STRONG
MIXING ON MONDAY AS NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE.
EXPECT SCT CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH MVFR TO LOWER VFR BKN
CIGS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...TSRAS WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF TERMINAL THROUGH 01Z OR
02Z BEFORE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SHRAS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS DEFORMATION WRAPS AROUND THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z-02Z THIS EVENING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 271916
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 271916
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 271718
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1013 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HELP SHORTEN OUR WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...AS ACCELERATING HEIGHT FALLS ARE
NOW OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...IF ANY SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF CLEARING
OCCURS...THE RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVELS/DYNAMIC FORCING STILL
COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP. ZONES IN
DECENT SHAPE AND ANY UPDATE WILL BE MINOR REVISIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SF
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 271413
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1013 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HELP SHORTEN OUR WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...AS ACCELERATING HEIGHT FALLS ARE
NOW OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...IF ANY SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF CLEARING
OCCURS...THE RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVELS/DYNAMIC FORCING STILL
COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP. ZONES IN
DECENT SHAPE AND ANY UPDATE WILL BE MINOR REVISIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 725 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FOG AND LOW
CEILING DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEN THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

VLIFR/LIFR RESTRICTION IN FOG/STRATUS IS THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A TYPICAL
PACE OF IMPROVEMENT ON THE FOG/STRATUS AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING
GETS UNDERWAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS THAT WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MBS FIRST AND THEN QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND MVFR STRATUS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SE MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL
STAY UP FROM THE NORTH AND THEN GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL UPWARD IMPROVEMENT CYCLE
AS FOG LIFTS TO LOW STRATUS AND THEN MIXES OUT TOWARD NOON. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS MUCH ON TIMING OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SEVERITY. THE
LATE AFTERNOON WINDOW OFFERED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
REFINED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND CEILING LESS
  THAN 200 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 271413
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1013 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS HELP SHORTEN OUR WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE...AS ACCELERATING HEIGHT FALLS ARE
NOW OCCURRING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...IF ANY SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF CLEARING
OCCURS...THE RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVELS/DYNAMIC FORCING STILL
COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP. ZONES IN
DECENT SHAPE AND ANY UPDATE WILL BE MINOR REVISIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 725 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FOG AND LOW
CEILING DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEN THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

VLIFR/LIFR RESTRICTION IN FOG/STRATUS IS THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A TYPICAL
PACE OF IMPROVEMENT ON THE FOG/STRATUS AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING
GETS UNDERWAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS THAT WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MBS FIRST AND THEN QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND MVFR STRATUS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SE MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL
STAY UP FROM THE NORTH AND THEN GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL UPWARD IMPROVEMENT CYCLE
AS FOG LIFTS TO LOW STRATUS AND THEN MIXES OUT TOWARD NOON. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS MUCH ON TIMING OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SEVERITY. THE
LATE AFTERNOON WINDOW OFFERED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
REFINED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND CEILING LESS
  THAN 200 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 271125
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
725 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE FOG AND LOW
CEILING DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEN THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

VLIFR/LIFR RESTRICTION IN FOG/STRATUS IS THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A TYPICAL
PACE OF IMPROVEMENT ON THE FOG/STRATUS AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING
GETS UNDERWAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS THAT WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MBS FIRST AND THEN QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND MVFR STRATUS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SE MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL
STAY UP FROM THE NORTH AND THEN GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL UPWARD IMPROVEMENT CYCLE
AS FOG LIFTS TO LOW STRATUS AND THEN MIXES OUT TOWARD NOON. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS MUCH ON TIMING OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SEVERITY. THE
LATE AFTERNOON WINDOW OFFERED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
REFINED AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND CEILING LESS
  THAN 200 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 270758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NOW THAT SHORTWAVE HAS RACED EAST
OF THE AREA...THE NEXT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS MAIN STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...EXPECT SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. WILL TIME CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...STARTING 18Z-20Z AND ENDING
04Z-06Z...WITH MORE MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEVELOPING NORTH
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN AREA.

FOR DTW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. SHRAS/TSRAS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS
APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE INDUCES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z
SUNDAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z-06Z SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 270758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM CANADA INTO MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTO MICHIGAN BY 00Z/8PM TODAY.
SURFACE LOW TRACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BY 15Z/10AM...EXPECT THE
LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
SITUATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DOWN ACROSS THE
THUMB...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER WISCONSIN. BOTH
FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS/TSTORMS FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT. THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE...PULLING A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR
DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BEHIND IT...AND LIKELY BRINGING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE WHOLE AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START TODAY WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION BEFORE
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. MODEL FORECASTS FOR ML/SB CAPE LOOK TO REACH BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES BETWEEN 14-15Z (PER NAM
SOUNDINGS). THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET...100
KNOTS...THAT DIVES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PLACING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION
FORCING BEFORE IT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. A STRONGER CORE
OF MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE AXIS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL STILL INCREASE
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS IT
BRUSHES BY. ALTHOUGH 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW...UNDER 10
KNOTS...0-6KM SHEAR WILL RUN FAIRLY HIGH AT 40-45 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE THREAT WILL HOWEVER DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID/LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY 8 PM...WITH THE
THREAT NORTH OF I-69 LOOKING TO TAPER OFF BY 5 PM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH FAT CAPE AND
LOW FREEZING LEVELS...AS WELL AS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR. SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A N-S
TRANSITION TO TALL AND SKINNY CAPE AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN AT THE
LOWER-LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SUPPORTING A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PW VALUES REMAIN UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR
AS THIS AREA WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME RAIN (WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION AREA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AT THE MID-LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED
AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AT AROUND 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM UP AROUND 80...WHICH WILL
FEEL MUGGY WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY SATURATED SOILS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/RAIN...DESPITE H850 TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW 10C. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 FOLLOWED BY ABOUT A CATEGORY OF
MODERATION EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS LATE JULY SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS INSTABILITY
IN THE COOL AIR MASS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
EXIT EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AROUND 700 MB TO CONFINE CONVECTION TO ABOUT 800
MB OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GOOD FOR GENEROUS COVERAGE
CUMULUS BUT NO RAIN. FORECASTS OF 850 MB TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 7C
SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S...POSSIBLY
70 IN THE DETROIT AREA TO OHIO BORDER...FAVORING BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES. FOR SOME PERSPECTIVE...THE RECORDS FOR COOLEST MAX TEMPS ON
JULY 28TH: DTW 68/1926...FNT 64/1981...MBS 60/1981.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. THE TENDENCY FOR DECOUPLING WILL BE
REDUCED BY THE NEXT SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT...WELL AGREED UPON IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL SHARPEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE NIGHT AND BRING CLOUDS INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH FOR MBS LOOKS REACHABLE AT
48/1965 AND EVEN FOR DTW 50/1971 BUT NOT FNT AT 42/1928.

CONTINUED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER
TUESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
BETWEEN POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS 850 MB DEWPOINT IS SHOWN TO HOVER IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS(C). MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
EXTENDING ABOVE -20C BUT ARE OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S WOULD SEEM LIKE A STRETCH IF NOT FOR THE EQUAL POTENTIAL FOR
SUNSHINE AND SURFACE HEATING.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS SOLID UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT WILL PERSIST EACH DAY...BUT WITH SLUGS OF DRY AIR AND
NEUTRAL FLOW MODULATING ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO STEADILY INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT...
PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE
WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NOW THAT SHORTWAVE HAS RACED EAST
OF THE AREA...THE NEXT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS MAIN STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...EXPECT SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. WILL TIME CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...STARTING 18Z-20Z AND ENDING
04Z-06Z...WITH MORE MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEVELOPING NORTH
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN AREA.

FOR DTW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. SHRAS/TSRAS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS
APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE INDUCES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z
SUNDAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z-06Z SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 270358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NOW THAT SHORTWAVE HAS RACED EAST
OF THE AREA...THE NEXT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS MAIN STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...EXPECT SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. WILL TIME CONVECTION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...STARTING 18Z-20Z AND ENDING
04Z-06Z...WITH MORE MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLE WITHIN DEVELOPING NORTH
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES IN AREA.

FOR DTW...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. SHRAS/TSRAS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS
APPROACHING STRONG SHORTWAVE INDUCES LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z
SUNDAY.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 04Z-06Z SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 262258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRAS OR ISOLATED TSRAS
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE I 94 TERMINALS AS THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND LIFT FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACT TO
FORCE THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE CONVECTION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FURTHER NORTH...THE BEST FOCUS SEEMS TO BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEARBY THE TAFS.
THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL COME BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MAJOR SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WAVE WILL INDUCE
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA BY THIS TIME AND EXPECT
AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THIS FEATURE.

FOR DTW...A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 20Z-22Z SUNDAY AS
A STRONG SYSTEM PIVOTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFTER 20Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 262258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRAS OR ISOLATED TSRAS
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE I 94 TERMINALS AS THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND LIFT FROM PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACT TO
FORCE THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE CONVECTION IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FURTHER NORTH...THE BEST FOCUS SEEMS TO BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEARBY THE TAFS.
THE MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL COME BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS MAJOR SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WAVE WILL INDUCE
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA BY THIS TIME AND EXPECT
AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THIS FEATURE.

FOR DTW...A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 20Z-22Z SUNDAY AS
A STRONG SYSTEM PIVOTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFTER 20Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 261928
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 261928
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DIFFICULT FORECAST REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
ALSO EVIDENT BY CURRENT CONVECTION IS THE CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
AS THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. HI-RES MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA DIVES SOUTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
WARM FRONT NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH. EVEN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS SPOTTY AT BEST AS THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE CONDITIONAL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 1-2 J/G OF MUCAPE WITH AROUND
50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
WORKS ITS WAY EAST...DRIER COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL INCH NORTH...KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES/TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS...LEADING TO SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY ALLOWING DETROIT
TO SNEAK INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST JULY`S ON RECORD...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AROUND 70.1 BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. BEFORE WE GET TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOISTEN LADEN
AIRMASS WILL BE DISPLACED BY THE STRONG PV ANOMALY/DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TIGHT CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
DIRECTLY THROUGH.

THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MODERATELY DESTABILIZE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE AGGRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS/SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MAIN JET CORE WILL BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH EVEN THE 0-1 KM WIND SHEAR
PREDOMINATELY BELOW 10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...EXCEPT TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SHEAR QUICKLY INCREASES. FOR MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. FOCUSED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITH 850 MB DEW PTS AROUND 11 C SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE....AND 1-2 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR ATTAINABLE.

THE 500 MB LOW/COLD CORE (-15 C AT 500 MB) SHOULD ALREADY BE LOCATED
OVER WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEARS LOW AS
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...WHICH LIKELY CAPS MAXES AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH 850 MB TEMP OF 7-8 C ADVERTISED.

MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO DROP INTO THE 40S BASED
ON THE SURFACE DEW PTS...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
NORTHERLY GRADIENT/MIXING TO KEEP MINS AROUND 50/LOWER
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THUMB REGION WITH LAKE HURON
INFLUENCE.

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXTENSION OF THE CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STILL BE
DOMINATED BY BELOW-NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS...TRANSLATING
INTO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL IN PLACE
AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO BE COMMON
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST IN THE AREA
OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL
OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND
THE FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 261734
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 261734
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL BRING CLOUDS BELOW 5000 FEET AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN ACTIVITY HITTING ANY OF
THE TERMINALS AS COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS SHOW A BURST OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AROUND 2300Z...THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES
HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STORMS. DESPITE THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHRA...TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE MID LEVELS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CALM WINDS AND AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN THE EARLY EVENING (20-23Z).

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
  AND THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 260754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DELAYING SHRA CHANCES INTO MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME...LIFT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACH ON THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH BETTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEBULOUS...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO FOCUS NEARER THE I 94 TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THIS AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A START...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN BE
REFINED BASED ON OVERNIGHT/MORNING TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 260754
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER LOOK LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FIRST...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIES STRETCHED FROM IOWA AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO JUST
BARELY LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WITHOUT THE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUX OF WARMER AIR MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED WITH A
FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH ARRIVAL OF THE ELEVATED FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE A CAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY NOT ERODE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE OHIO BORDER (CLOSER TO THE FRONT).
NEXT...A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT SHEARED OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
BROADER LEFT EXIT REGION FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES MAY HELP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS FORM AS THIS WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO
OVERALL...POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND THUMB. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL TODAY. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR STILL LOOK TO REACH 40-50 KNOTS AS AN UPPER SPEED MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD INSTABILITY HOWEVER IS IN QUESTION WITH
THE MID-LEVEL CAP EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY BECOMES IMPEDED BY CONVECTION FIRING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HOLD SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH OF THE DETROIT AREA...WITH
SOME HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER HELPING TO BOOST CAPE VALUES
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DOES ARRIVE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80.

A PLUME OF DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RAMP DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO MINNESOTA AND SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE
BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL
THEREFORE BE IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN LOOK FAIRLY QUIET. THE WARM FRONT LIFTING UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E PUSH...MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE COMPACT AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
VIRGINIAS JUDGING FROM MODEL MEAN RH CLUSTERING THERE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH SEPARATION TO ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM
AS IT SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
CHARACTER OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF OUTPUT WITH THE
INDICATION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS LIKELY A REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET BUT COULD ALSO BE EMBELLISHED BY INFLUENCE
OF THE MCS SOURCE REGION. ASSUMING LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE REFLECTION...THE RESULTING HYBRID WARM FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT WOULD THEN DIRECT THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS THROUGH OHIO. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PROCESS BUT
STILL INDICATES UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINT OVER OUR AREA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO GENERATE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IS
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRONG CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND THE DYNAMIC STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEMAND CAREFUL MONITORING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WHILE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION RUNS ITS COURSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A MATURE CONVEYOR OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE EAST
AND NORTH FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
WELL ORGANIZED THETA-E TROWAL AXIS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER INDICATIVE OF STRONG DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFS INDICATES THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
AXIS HIGHLIGHTED BY 700 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 3C REFLECTED IN UPPER 30S
K-INDEX...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES...AND 850 MB BASED LI
AROUND -1C. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE INHERITED CATEGORICAL FORECAST FOR
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT WRINGING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE PATTERN. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WOULD
NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS...BUT CONCERNS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE
EASED SLIGHTLY BY THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SMALL BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
BY MONDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH POLAR ORIGINS THAT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ENHANCED BY HIGH PREDICTABILITY IN ROCK SOLID MAINTENANCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTENANCE OF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS GREATEST SUNDAY IN THE AREA OF LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WIND AND WAVE ACTION WILL OTHERWISE
BE FAVORABLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AND RETURN BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DELAYING SHRA CHANCES INTO MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME...LIFT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACH ON THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH BETTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEBULOUS...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO FOCUS NEARER THE I 94 TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THIS AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A START...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN BE
REFINED BASED ON OVERNIGHT/MORNING TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 260354
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DELAYING SHRA CHANCES INTO MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME...LIFT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACH ON THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH BETTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEBULOUS...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO FOCUS NEARER THE I 94 TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THIS AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A START...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN BE
REFINED BASED ON OVERNIGHT/MORNING TRENDS.


//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVERALL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN
STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.  ANY PRECIPITATION
RELATED TO THIS HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DRIER AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FACT THAT SE MI WAS STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST.  THE DRIER
AIR WAS PREVALENT ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN. ONLY THING THAT MAY BE SEEN IS SOME VIRGA AS
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AND
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THE DIURNAL CU FIELD THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND.  THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE WARM
FRONT.  ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ENCROACHING
ON SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ASSIST IN STARTING
TO CREATE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS.  THIS WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN BETTER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06-09Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING.
LATEST HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE PRECIP COMING IN UNTIL CLOSER TO 10Z
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATER
ONSET OF PRECIP.  GIVEN CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

PLENTY OF 12Z MODEL (NAM/GFS) INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHEN LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS SHARP TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENTS EXIST
AT 850/700 MB. IN ADDITION...BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO BE SHEARING APART
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WE ARE LEFT WITH
THE STRONG JET CORE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION (MAX INSTABILITY) OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING SATURDAY...AS WE CONTINUE TO BE PARTIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OVER THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH
EVENTUALLY DIRECTS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL/CIRCULATION OVER
WESTERN CANADA THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY. STILL...THERE IS
ROOM FOR SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN
DURING SATURDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE TO TAP INTO LIKELY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG AND SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH THE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND FIELDS (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS). 700 MB TEMPS
WARMING TOWARD 10 C MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY
HOWEVER...AND/OR WE WILL BE IN THE SHADOW OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY LOWERED
POPS SLIGHTLY...AS NOT FULLY CONVINCED THE 70 SURFACE DEGREE DEW PTS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WITH THE DISRUPTION IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SUPPORT MID 80S...BUT CLOUD CONCERNS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WORTHY OF SHAVING A COUPLE DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY`S FORECAST HINGES ON THE LOCATION OF THE
NEARLY WEST-EAST MOISTURE AXIS/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE...AS THE 500
MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRAW SOME OF
THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH PAST THE OHIO BORDER
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING SUNDAY. THAT WILL NOT END THE RAIN
CHANCES ALL TOGETHER...AS DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AT THE VERY
LEAST (IN LINE WITH DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK)...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
FEEDS UP FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND IT APPEARS THE TRIPLE
POINT WILL RESIDE IN THAT VICINITY.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
ASSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS -2.5 TO -3 STANDARDIZED 500 MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES RESIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR OVERHEAD...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

MARINE...

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WE BE LIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY...BECOMING VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ON MONDAY....AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS LONG FETCH ALLOWS FOR GOOD WAVE BUILD UP
IMPACTING THE NEARSHORE LAKE HURON MARINE ZONES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 260354
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DELAYING SHRA CHANCES INTO MIDDAY/AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. BY THAT TIME...LIFT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENCROACH ON THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH BETTER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEBULOUS...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO FOCUS NEARER THE I 94 TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THIS AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A START...WHICH HOPEFULLY CAN BE
REFINED BASED ON OVERNIGHT/MORNING TRENDS.


//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET AFTER 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVERALL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN
STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.  ANY PRECIPITATION
RELATED TO THIS HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DRIER AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FACT THAT SE MI WAS STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST.  THE DRIER
AIR WAS PREVALENT ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN. ONLY THING THAT MAY BE SEEN IS SOME VIRGA AS
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AND
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THE DIURNAL CU FIELD THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND.  THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE WARM
FRONT.  ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ENCROACHING
ON SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ASSIST IN STARTING
TO CREATE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS.  THIS WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN BETTER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06-09Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING.
LATEST HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE PRECIP COMING IN UNTIL CLOSER TO 10Z
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATER
ONSET OF PRECIP.  GIVEN CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

PLENTY OF 12Z MODEL (NAM/GFS) INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHEN LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS SHARP TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENTS EXIST
AT 850/700 MB. IN ADDITION...BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO BE SHEARING APART
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WE ARE LEFT WITH
THE STRONG JET CORE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION (MAX INSTABILITY) OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING SATURDAY...AS WE CONTINUE TO BE PARTIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OVER THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH
EVENTUALLY DIRECTS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL/CIRCULATION OVER
WESTERN CANADA THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY. STILL...THERE IS
ROOM FOR SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN
DURING SATURDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE TO TAP INTO LIKELY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG AND SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH THE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND FIELDS (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS). 700 MB TEMPS
WARMING TOWARD 10 C MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY
HOWEVER...AND/OR WE WILL BE IN THE SHADOW OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY LOWERED
POPS SLIGHTLY...AS NOT FULLY CONVINCED THE 70 SURFACE DEGREE DEW PTS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WITH THE DISRUPTION IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SUPPORT MID 80S...BUT CLOUD CONCERNS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WORTHY OF SHAVING A COUPLE DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY`S FORECAST HINGES ON THE LOCATION OF THE
NEARLY WEST-EAST MOISTURE AXIS/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE...AS THE 500
MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRAW SOME OF
THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH PAST THE OHIO BORDER
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING SUNDAY. THAT WILL NOT END THE RAIN
CHANCES ALL TOGETHER...AS DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AT THE VERY
LEAST (IN LINE WITH DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK)...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
FEEDS UP FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND IT APPEARS THE TRIPLE
POINT WILL RESIDE IN THAT VICINITY.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
ASSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS -2.5 TO -3 STANDARDIZED 500 MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES RESIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR OVERHEAD...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

MARINE...

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WE BE LIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY...BECOMING VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ON MONDAY....AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS LONG FETCH ALLOWS FOR GOOD WAVE BUILD UP
IMPACTING THE NEARSHORE LAKE HURON MARINE ZONES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 252256
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
656 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

RATHER CHAOTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY ROLL OVER
INTO AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHILE A FEW -SHRAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS MUDDLED SYSTEM...A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SHRAS AT THE SURFACE
AND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
THAT TIME THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS WILL RIDE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
THAT THE AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
JET ENERGY TO ARRIVE AND ACT ON WHATEVER DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR. TIMING/COVERAGE QUESTIONS ARE BROAD ENOUGH TO FORGO A MENTION
OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS OR TSRAS BEYOND THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVERALL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN
STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.  ANY PRECIPITATION
RELATED TO THIS HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DRIER AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FACT THAT SE MI WAS STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST.  THE DRIER
AIR WAS PREVALENT ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN. ONLY THING THAT MAY BE SEEN IS SOME VIRGA AS
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AND
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THE DIURNAL CU FIELD THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND.  THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE WARM
FRONT.  ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ENCROACHING
ON SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ASSIST IN STARTING
TO CREATE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS.  THIS WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN BETTER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06-09Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING.
LATEST HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE PRECIP COMING IN UNTIL CLOSER TO 10Z
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATER
ONSET OF PRECIP.  GIVEN CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

PLENTY OF 12Z MODEL (NAM/GFS) INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHEN LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS SHARP TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENTS EXIST
AT 850/700 MB. IN ADDITION...BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO BE SHEARING APART
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WE ARE LEFT WITH
THE STRONG JET CORE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION (MAX INSTABILITY) OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING SATURDAY...AS WE CONTINUE TO BE PARTIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OVER THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH
EVENTUALLY DIRECTS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL/CIRCULATION OVER
WESTERN CANADA THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY. STILL...THERE IS
ROOM FOR SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN
DURING SATURDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE TO TAP INTO LIKELY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG AND SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH THE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND FIELDS (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS). 700 MB TEMPS
WARMING TOWARD 10 C MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY
HOWEVER...AND/OR WE WILL BE IN THE SHADOW OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY LOWERED
POPS SLIGHTLY...AS NOT FULLY CONVINCED THE 70 SURFACE DEGREE DEW PTS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WITH THE DISRUPTION IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SUPPORT MID 80S...BUT CLOUD CONCERNS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WORTHY OF SHAVING A COUPLE DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY`S FORECAST HINGES ON THE LOCATION OF THE
NEARLY WEST-EAST MOISTURE AXIS/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE...AS THE 500
MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRAW SOME OF
THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH PAST THE OHIO BORDER
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING SUNDAY. THAT WILL NOT END THE RAIN
CHANCES ALL TOGETHER...AS DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AT THE VERY
LEAST (IN LINE WITH DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK)...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
FEEDS UP FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND IT APPEARS THE TRIPLE
POINT WILL RESIDE IN THAT VICINITY.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
ASSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS -2.5 TO -3 STANDARDIZED 500 MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES RESIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR OVERHEAD...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

MARINE...

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WE BE LIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY...BECOMING VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ON MONDAY....AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS LONG FETCH ALLOWS FOR GOOD WAVE BUILD UP
IMPACTING THE NEARSHORE LAKE HURON MARINE ZONES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 252256
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
656 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

RATHER CHAOTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY ROLL OVER
INTO AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHILE A FEW -SHRAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS MUDDLED SYSTEM...A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SHRAS AT THE SURFACE
AND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
THAT TIME THE CURRENT TROUGH AXIS WILL RIDE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
THAT THE AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
JET ENERGY TO ARRIVE AND ACT ON WHATEVER DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR. TIMING/COVERAGE QUESTIONS ARE BROAD ENOUGH TO FORGO A MENTION
OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS OR TSRAS BEYOND THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVERALL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN
STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.  ANY PRECIPITATION
RELATED TO THIS HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DRIER AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FACT THAT SE MI WAS STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST.  THE DRIER
AIR WAS PREVALENT ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN. ONLY THING THAT MAY BE SEEN IS SOME VIRGA AS
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AND
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THE DIURNAL CU FIELD THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND.  THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE WARM
FRONT.  ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ENCROACHING
ON SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ASSIST IN STARTING
TO CREATE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS.  THIS WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN BETTER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06-09Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING.
LATEST HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE PRECIP COMING IN UNTIL CLOSER TO 10Z
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATER
ONSET OF PRECIP.  GIVEN CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

PLENTY OF 12Z MODEL (NAM/GFS) INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHEN LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS SHARP TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENTS EXIST
AT 850/700 MB. IN ADDITION...BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO BE SHEARING APART
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WE ARE LEFT WITH
THE STRONG JET CORE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION (MAX INSTABILITY) OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING SATURDAY...AS WE CONTINUE TO BE PARTIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OVER THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH
EVENTUALLY DIRECTS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL/CIRCULATION OVER
WESTERN CANADA THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY. STILL...THERE IS
ROOM FOR SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN
DURING SATURDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE TO TAP INTO LIKELY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG AND SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH THE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND FIELDS (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS). 700 MB TEMPS
WARMING TOWARD 10 C MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY
HOWEVER...AND/OR WE WILL BE IN THE SHADOW OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY LOWERED
POPS SLIGHTLY...AS NOT FULLY CONVINCED THE 70 SURFACE DEGREE DEW PTS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WITH THE DISRUPTION IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SUPPORT MID 80S...BUT CLOUD CONCERNS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WORTHY OF SHAVING A COUPLE DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY`S FORECAST HINGES ON THE LOCATION OF THE
NEARLY WEST-EAST MOISTURE AXIS/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE...AS THE 500
MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRAW SOME OF
THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH PAST THE OHIO BORDER
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING SUNDAY. THAT WILL NOT END THE RAIN
CHANCES ALL TOGETHER...AS DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AT THE VERY
LEAST (IN LINE WITH DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK)...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
FEEDS UP FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND IT APPEARS THE TRIPLE
POINT WILL RESIDE IN THAT VICINITY.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
ASSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS -2.5 TO -3 STANDARDIZED 500 MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES RESIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR OVERHEAD...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

MARINE...

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WE BE LIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY...BECOMING VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ON MONDAY....AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS LONG FETCH ALLOWS FOR GOOD WAVE BUILD UP
IMPACTING THE NEARSHORE LAKE HURON MARINE ZONES.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 251928
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVERALL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN
STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.  ANY PRECIPITATION
RELATED TO THIS HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DRIER AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FACT THAT SE MI WAS STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST.  THE DRIER
AIR WAS PREVALENT ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN. ONLY THING THAT MAY BE SEEN IS SOME VIRGA AS
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AND
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THE DIURNAL CU FIELD THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND.  THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE WARM
FRONT.  ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ENCROACHING
ON SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ASSIST IN STARTING
TO CREATE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS.  THIS WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN BETTER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06-09Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING.
LATEST HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE PRECIP COMING IN UNTIL CLOSER TO 10Z
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATER
ONSET OF PRECIP.  GIVEN CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

PLENTY OF 12Z MODEL (NAM/GFS) INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHEN LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS SHARP TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENTS EXIST
AT 850/700 MB. IN ADDITION...BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO BE SHEARING APART
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WE ARE LEFT WITH
THE STRONG JET CORE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION (MAX INSTABILITY) OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING SATURDAY...AS WE CONTINUE TO BE PARTIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OVER THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH
EVENTUALLY DIRECTS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL/CIRCULATION OVER
WESTERN CANADA THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY. STILL...THERE IS
ROOM FOR SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN
DURING SATURDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE TO TAP INTO LIKELY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG AND SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH THE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND FIELDS (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS). 700 MB TEMPS
WARMING TOWARD 10 C MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY
HOWEVER...AND/OR WE WILL BE IN THE SHADOW OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY LOWERED
POPS SLIGHTLY...AS NOT FULLY CONVINCED THE 70 SURFACE DEGREE DEW PTS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WITH THE DISRUPTION IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SUPPORT MID 80S...BUT CLOUD CONCERNS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WORTHY OF SHAVING A COUPLE DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY`S FORECAST HINGES ON THE LOCATION OF THE
NEARLY WEST-EAST MOISTURE AXIS/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE...AS THE 500
MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRAW SOME OF
THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH PAST THE OHIO BORDER
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING SUNDAY. THAT WILL NOT END THE RAIN
CHANCES ALL TOGETHER...AS DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AT THE VERY
LEAST (IN LINE WITH DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK)...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
FEEDS UP FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND IT APPEARS THE TRIPLE
POINT WILL RESIDE IN THAT VICINITY.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
ASSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS -2.5 TO -3 STANDARDIZED 500 MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES RESIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR OVERHEAD...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

&&

.MARINE...

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WE BE LIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY...BECOMING VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ON MONDAY....AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS LONG FETCH ALLOWS FOR GOOD WAVE BUILD UP
IMPACTING THE NEARSHORE LAKE HURON MARINE ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 128 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THOSE LOWER VFR CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.  CURRENT OBS HAVE
SHOWN INCREASED WINDS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND THESE WILL DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING.  CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE AS BOTH UPSTREAM CLOUD DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.  THE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH VIRGA MAY BE OBSERVED. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS LOW FOR THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
WILL BE AFTER 10Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 10Z SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 251928
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS OVERALL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN
STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA SINCE THIS MORNING.  ANY PRECIPITATION
RELATED TO THIS HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF DRIER AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FACT THAT SE MI WAS STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST.  THE DRIER
AIR WAS PREVALENT ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER FAR
WESTERN MICHIGAN. ONLY THING THAT MAY BE SEEN IS SOME VIRGA AS
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND AND
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT.  THE DIURNAL CU FIELD THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND.  THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE INCREASING RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE WARM
FRONT.  ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ENCROACHING
ON SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ASSIST IN STARTING
TO CREATE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS.  THIS WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN BETTER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06-09Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING.
LATEST HIRES MODELS DO NOT HAVE PRECIP COMING IN UNTIL CLOSER TO 10Z
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
OVERALL...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATER
ONSET OF PRECIP.  GIVEN CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

PLENTY OF 12Z MODEL (NAM/GFS) INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHEN LOOKING AT
UPSTREAM RAOBS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEAST
IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS SHARP TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENTS EXIST
AT 850/700 MB. IN ADDITION...BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LOOKS TO BE SHEARING APART
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WE ARE LEFT WITH
THE STRONG JET CORE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION (MAX INSTABILITY) OF THE NEXT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING SATURDAY...AS WE CONTINUE TO BE PARTIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OVER THE MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH
EVENTUALLY DIRECTS THE REMNANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL/CIRCULATION OVER
WESTERN CANADA THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SUNDAY. STILL...THERE IS
ROOM FOR SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN
DURING SATURDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE TO TAP INTO LIKELY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPES OF 2000+ J/KG AND SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WITH THE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND FIELDS (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KNOTS). 700 MB TEMPS
WARMING TOWARD 10 C MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY
HOWEVER...AND/OR WE WILL BE IN THE SHADOW OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY LOWERED
POPS SLIGHTLY...AS NOT FULLY CONVINCED THE 70 SURFACE DEGREE DEW PTS
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WITH THE DISRUPTION IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SUPPORT MID 80S...BUT CLOUD CONCERNS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WORTHY OF SHAVING A COUPLE DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY`S FORECAST HINGES ON THE LOCATION OF THE
NEARLY WEST-EAST MOISTURE AXIS/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE...AS THE 500
MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRAW SOME OF
THE MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH PAST THE OHIO BORDER
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING SUNDAY. THAT WILL NOT END THE RAIN
CHANCES ALL TOGETHER...AS DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AT THE VERY
LEAST (IN LINE WITH DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK)...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
FEEDS UP FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND IT APPEARS THE TRIPLE
POINT WILL RESIDE IN THAT VICINITY.

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL
ASSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS -2.5 TO -3 STANDARDIZED 500 MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES RESIDE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR OVERHEAD...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS LIKELY IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

&&

.MARINE...

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN LAKE ERIE. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WE BE LIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY...BECOMING VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP...PEAKING AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ON MONDAY....AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS LONG FETCH ALLOWS FOR GOOD WAVE BUILD UP
IMPACTING THE NEARSHORE LAKE HURON MARINE ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 128 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THOSE LOWER VFR CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.  CURRENT OBS HAVE
SHOWN INCREASED WINDS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND THESE WILL DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING.  CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE AS BOTH UPSTREAM CLOUD DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.  THE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH VIRGA MAY BE OBSERVED. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS LOW FOR THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
WILL BE AFTER 10Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 10Z SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SS
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SS


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 251728
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
128 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THOSE LOWER VFR CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.  CURRENT OBS HAVE
SHOWN INCREASED WINDS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND THESE WILL DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING.  CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE AS BOTH UPSTREAM CLOUD DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.  THE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH VIRGA MAY BE OBSERVED. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS LOW FOR THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...
WILL BE AFTER 10Z SATURDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET INTO EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 10Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERN LAKE ERIE TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH
SHOULD STILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
CIRRUS...DIURNAL CU...AND DEBRIS OFF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASINGLY FILL THE SKY.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION FROM STORM COMPLEXES CURRENTLY OVER IOWA AND
MINNESOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST
PART. ANY REMNANTS THAT DO TRY TO MAKE IT IN WILL ENCOUNTER DRY AIR
(AS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING) AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EXITING
HIGH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THERMAL FIELDS GET
A BOOST BY AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE TODAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH MAX TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 70S TO 80 TODAY...DESPITE THE
CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY GLIDE
EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA SLIDES INTO SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW OVER MICHIGAN TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. WILL INITIALLY SEE ONLY A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE ELEVATED PORTION OF
A WARM FRONT AND 30-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HEALTHY THETA-E RIDGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WASH OVER THE
AREA LATE...BOOSTING PW VALUES TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THIS WORKS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIMING IS STILL VERY DIVERGENT ON WHEN STORMS
SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE WEST OR DEVELOP OVERHEAD. BEST TIMING LOOKS
TO COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL START TO RISE LATE IN THE
NIGHT...WITH VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS ON THE NAM/GFS BY 12Z SAT. THIS
WILL BEAR WATCHING...BUT OVERALL...THINK THE LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...

THE FORECAST FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND WITH PROSPECTS LIKELY BETTER SUNDAY COMPARED
TO SATURDAY. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS IN THE 00Z
MODEL DATA ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS SHOWN TO EXTEND THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
CENTRAL LAKE HURON FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRAIL THE EXITING WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
JET PATTERN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER SE
MICHIGAN...BUT THE CHARACTER OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD RANGE WIDE ON
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EITHER BECAUSE OF OR DESPITE THE CAPPING
INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR AS IT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THE
SOURCE OF THE WARM AIR IN THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PATTERN SEEMS
TIED TO LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET AXIS WHICH FAVORS CONVECTION TIED MORE CLOSELY ALONG AND
NORTH/EAST OF THE WARM FRONT. ASSUMING LOWER END COVERAGE OF
MORNING ACTIVITY HOLDS...THEN MINIMAL MESOSCALE INFLUENCE WILL NOT
INTERFERE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY PROVE A DIFFERENT STORY. SOUPY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND A SLOW START TO SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION A LIMITING FACTOR.
SIMILAR DEPICTIONS ARE SHOWN IN THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN
MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH READINGS AS HIGH AS 13C AT 750 MB DIFFICULT
TO GET AROUND GIVEN THE WEAK COLD FRONT INDICATED IN BOTH
TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE FIELDS. EVEN IF MAX SURFACE TEMPS CAN
PUSH THE UPPER 80S...A SURFACE DEWPOINT NEAR 70 WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO IMPROVE ON FOR A MORE FAVORABLE PARCEL...BUT LOWER 80S/UPPER
60S STILL GENERATES CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER JET OFFERING 50 KNOTS OF MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE WIND SHEAR.
CONSIDERING THESE HEFTY DOSES OF INGREDIENTS...CAREFUL MONITORING
OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS A REQUIREMENT CONSIDERING
BETTER LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION SUPPORT IS SO NEARBY TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE LOW COMING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TODAY FULLY SUPPORTS THE AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SYSTEM
FOR SUNDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THINGS ON THE QUIET SIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT A GENEROUS RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL SET A BETTER STAGE FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A MUCH MORE STRONGLY FORCED
SCENARIO COMPARED TO SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER CIRCULATION BUT WITH
SIMILAR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER BUT ADEQUATE WITH THE ADDED
COMPONENT OF BACKED FLOW AND STRONG TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
HODOGRAPH SUPPLIED BY THE FRONT RETURNING NORTHWARD AND THE SURFACE
LOW SLIDING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS INCREASES THE PROSPECTS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING AND THE GOING LIKELY POP
FORECAST LOOKS SOLID FROM BOTH A TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
PERSPECTIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWEEPS THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY MORNING.

MARINE...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND THEN LAST OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE STORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL HAMPER OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF WIND AND WAVES UNTIL MONDAY.
THAT IS WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SS
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities