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000
FXUS63 KDTX 210751
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

549 DM CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY EXITING SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL EFFECTIVELY REINFORCE AN ALREADY HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL
TROUGH NOW COMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.  TRAILING SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHER DEGREE OF DCVA LOCALLY TODAY...PARTICULARLY
EARLY ON.  THIS AGITATED FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN EASING COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE COMPONENT IN DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW TO SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE
CANOPY OF STRATUS TODAY.  UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS COMPARED TO RECENT
HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EMERGE...POSITIONING OF BOTH THE BETTER
ASCENT AND A SLIGHT ADDITIVE COMPONENT FROM LAKE HURON LEAVING THE
THUMB CORRIDOR WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.  850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FORECAST TO BOTTOM AT ROUGHLY -2C BY THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...THIS POINTS TO SEEING VERY LITTLE
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.  HIGHS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

BOTH THE DEGREE AND LOCATION OF CLEARING REMAINS THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT.  925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE BACKGROUND
REINFORCING NORTHERLY GRADIENT WORKING THROUGH THE DEPARTING LOWER
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  LATEST SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE SOME INROADS LATE
THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST/WEST...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME CLOUD
BREAKS /FAVORING THE TRI-CITIES AND HIGHWAY 23 CORRIDOR/.  HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO VEER SLIGHTLY WITH TIME...A FAVORED
TRAJECTORY OFF LAKE HURON IN SUPPORT OF THE MAINTENANCE AND/OR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT.  THIS SETUP FAVORS KEEPING
WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK ON CLEARING UNTIL NEAR TERM TRENDS
SUGGEST OTHERWISE.  THIS IN TURN WILL CAP THE NOCTURNAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 30 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO LOWER
40S IN PORTIONS OF METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LOW NOW SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXPECTED UNDER THE INVERSION EARLY TO KEEP SOME STRATUS
AROUND. MODELS ARE THEN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
CASCADES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE MIX INTO THIS
DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY...KEEPING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL AS H850 TEMPS ARE
SLOW TO MODERATE...ONLY BACK UP TO 7-8C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE LOW/MID 50S. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S FOR
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.

NEXT ITEM TO WATCH WILL BE THE UPPER WAVE NOW ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS TO TRACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY SCOOPING UP ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE SHEARING
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA. AT THIS TIME...GFS/EURO DO NOT SHOW
MUCH MOISTURE SURGING UP INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. GIVEN
THE PRECEDING DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT REFLECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CURRENT TIMING PROGGED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

UPPER RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS
TODAY OVER LAKE HURON. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 8 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TRACKS EAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR CALMER
CONDITIONS.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ST CLAIR AND FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE TODAY...WITH GUSTS EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CIGS BACK TO
VFR AND  SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS DECK TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 210751
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

549 DM CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY EXITING SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL EFFECTIVELY REINFORCE AN ALREADY HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL
TROUGH NOW COMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.  TRAILING SHEARED
OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHER DEGREE OF DCVA LOCALLY TODAY...PARTICULARLY
EARLY ON.  THIS AGITATED FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN EASING COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE COMPONENT IN DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW TO SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE
CANOPY OF STRATUS TODAY.  UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS COMPARED TO RECENT
HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EMERGE...POSITIONING OF BOTH THE BETTER
ASCENT AND A SLIGHT ADDITIVE COMPONENT FROM LAKE HURON LEAVING THE
THUMB CORRIDOR WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.  850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FORECAST TO BOTTOM AT ROUGHLY -2C BY THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...THIS POINTS TO SEEING VERY LITTLE
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.  HIGHS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

BOTH THE DEGREE AND LOCATION OF CLEARING REMAINS THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT.  925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE BACKGROUND
REINFORCING NORTHERLY GRADIENT WORKING THROUGH THE DEPARTING LOWER
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  LATEST SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND LOW LEVEL RH
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE SOME INROADS LATE
THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST/WEST...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME CLOUD
BREAKS /FAVORING THE TRI-CITIES AND HIGHWAY 23 CORRIDOR/.  HOWEVER
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO VEER SLIGHTLY WITH TIME...A FAVORED
TRAJECTORY OFF LAKE HURON IN SUPPORT OF THE MAINTENANCE AND/OR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT.  THIS SETUP FAVORS KEEPING
WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK ON CLEARING UNTIL NEAR TERM TRENDS
SUGGEST OTHERWISE.  THIS IN TURN WILL CAP THE NOCTURNAL COOLING
POTENTIAL.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 30 IN THE TRI-CITIES TO LOWER
40S IN PORTIONS OF METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LOW NOW SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXPECTED UNDER THE INVERSION EARLY TO KEEP SOME STRATUS
AROUND. MODELS ARE THEN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
CASCADES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE MIX INTO THIS
DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY...KEEPING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL AS H850 TEMPS ARE
SLOW TO MODERATE...ONLY BACK UP TO 7-8C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE LOW/MID 50S. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S FOR
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.

NEXT ITEM TO WATCH WILL BE THE UPPER WAVE NOW ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS TO TRACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY SCOOPING UP ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE SHEARING
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA. AT THIS TIME...GFS/EURO DO NOT SHOW
MUCH MOISTURE SURGING UP INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. GIVEN
THE PRECEDING DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT REFLECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CURRENT TIMING PROGGED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

UPPER RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS
TODAY OVER LAKE HURON. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW
WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 8 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TRACKS EAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR CALMER
CONDITIONS.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
LAKE ST CLAIR AND FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE TODAY...WITH GUSTS EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CIGS BACK TO
VFR AND  SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS DECK TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 210357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CIGS BACK TO
VFR AND  SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS DECK TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 210357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CIGS BACK TO
VFR AND  SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS DECK TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 210357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CIGS BACK TO
VFR AND  SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS DECK TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 210357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME
DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RAISING CIGS BACK TO
VFR AND  SOME GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THE STRATUS DECK TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 210355
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER THE
REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL MVFR AND IFR
CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO TIME, ALTHOUGH
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT
WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES PROBABLY
WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 210355
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER THE
REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL MVFR AND IFR
CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO TIME, ALTHOUGH
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT
WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES PROBABLY
WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 210355
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER THE
REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL MVFR AND IFR
CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE EVENING TIME
FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO TIME, ALTHOUGH
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT
WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES PROBABLY
WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 202335
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
735 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER
THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO
TIME, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND
FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 202335
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
735 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

//DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED OVER
THE REGION AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TEMPO AREA OF VFR CIGS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE LOWER MI, UPSTREAM THERE ARE STILL
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WHICH WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. SHOWER WILL STILL BE A THREAT FROM TIME TO
TIME, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE INTO THE SE LOWER MI OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, SO THAT MBS AND
FNT WILL BEGIN TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY 00Z, WHILE THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 201944
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE TONIGHT NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB
AVIATION.....MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 201944
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXTENSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING RIGHT UP THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THAT
SAID...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH POCKET
OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF RETURNS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...KEEPING SCATTERED/CHANCE WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...KEEPING THE NOCTURNAL RESPONSE SOMEWHAT MUTED...WITH LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING SLOW TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST...ITSELF REINFORCED BY
SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL HELP COMPLETE
THE CLOSING OFF PROCESS...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
RESPECTABLE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK. H9-H8
THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SLOW TO
EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS
COMMENCES. PERUSAL OF MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINTENANCE OF MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SAID THERMAL TROUGHING/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONTRIBUTION ONLY HELPING THE
CLOUD PRODUCING AND LIGHT SHOWER CAUSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR CONCUR...AND WILL CONTINUE PESSIMISTIC TREND...KEEPING
CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET (MORE SO EARLY)
TUESDAY...AND ADVERTISING ONLY A SLOW "CLEARING" TREND FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHILLY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND OVERHEAD COOL AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S. NOCTURNAL RESPONSE TUESDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
COULD BE...WITH SLOW DEPARTURE OF CLOUDS AND MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

A WELL DESERVED REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT WET WEATHER STILL APPEARS A
SAFE BET HEADING INTO THE MID AND END PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...WITH
EARLIER MENTIONED EASTERN SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE TAKING ITS TIME TO
WORK UP THE COAST...ALL-THE-WHILE SHARP DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SUPPORT IS GROWING FOR A RATHER
APPRECIABLE WAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SIMPLY NO DECENT PRE-SYSTEM MOISTURE ADVECTION...HOWEVER...
WITH ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TIED UP WELL TO OUR EAST. WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT SUB CLOUD
LAYER PROFILES WILL REMAIN AWFULLY DRY...LIKELY NEGATING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE (SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IN NO HURRY TO ADD SUCH DETAIL JUST YET).

EAST COAST SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE BOOT NORTHEAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND IT TO HELP CARVE OUT EASTERN CANADA
TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND. FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OVERHEAD HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW
MUCH COLD AIR BLEEDS INTO THE AREA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN
FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR PUSH...WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND NEW GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH. SUPPORT REMAINS
STRONG FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALREADY ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 115 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE TONIGHT NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM....MSB
MARINE.......MSB
AVIATION.....MSB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 201715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
115 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
DECK ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. UPSTREAM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WILL FOLLOW...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WILL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY
COVERAGE TONIGHT NOT WORTHY OF A SPECIFIC MENTION IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MSB
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 201010
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING
CEILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. RECENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ARRIVE
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 2000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION COMMENCES. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 201010
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING
CEILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. RECENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ARRIVE
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 2000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION COMMENCES. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 201010
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING
CEILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. RECENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ARRIVE
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 2000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION COMMENCES. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 201010
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING
CEILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD. RECENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM
SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VFR AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXITS THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ARRIVE
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO DIP BELOW 2000 FT
OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER SATURATION COMMENCES. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING...HIGH
CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 200753
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 200753
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 200753
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 200753
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE 00Z KDTX RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER
IT WAS SLOWLY MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
MOISTENS UP THE REMAINING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS
OCCURS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT RESPONSE UPSTREAM WITH THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WITH CAPES OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM RESPONSE AND DECENT DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE INHERITED HIGH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S TODAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST DURING
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINTAINS
A LOW STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 40S UNDERNEATH THE FAIRLY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THE EXTENSIVE TRAILING MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WASH ACROSS SE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY.  THIS
REALIGNMENT IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW...EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH /-2C AT 850 MB/ OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...AND
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION /PARTICULARLY
EARLY/.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RESPOND...HIGH TEMPERATURE
READINGS CAPPED AT AROUND 50 DEGREES.

EXISTING 925 MB THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE
EASTWARD...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW CLEARING PROCESS /IF AT ALL/
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAVORABLE MEAN FLOW OFF LAKE HURON REINFORCES THE
A MOIST SUB-INVERSION LAYER.  THIS WILL PUT A LID ON THE DEGREE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING WILL BE OVER THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A BROADER SPECTRUM OF LOW TEMPERATURES...MID 30S WEST
TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EAST.

DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
REGION STILL WITHIN THE EXTENSIVE OUTER PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...
WHILE A STEADY DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES UNDER
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT OTHERWISE LEAVE THE EXISTING AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO MODERATE MORE THAN SEVERAL DEGREES RELATIVE TO
HIGHS ON TUESDAY /LOWER 50S/.

DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS MAKING A MORE
NOTEWORTHY UPWARD JUMP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE HOLD. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH
THE ELEVATED HEIGHT FIELD WILL SHEAR THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING THE ONLY POSSIBLE WRINKLE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LITTLE FORCING BEHIND THIS AXIS TO SUGGEST ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CENTER ON THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD /IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE/...850 MB TEMPERATURES
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE LOWER TEENS. THIS POINTS TO A BRIEF WARMUP
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE
WATER WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE
GRADIENT FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME... SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10
     PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 200413
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 200413
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1213 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 192317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLF FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 192317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLF FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 192317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLF FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 192317
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
717 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR SKIES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A COLF FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 191938
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1238 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO MBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20 KFT)/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 191938
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MUCH OF
THE ISENTROPIC ASSENT (295 K) TONIGHT WILL BE USED UP JUST TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE 12Z NAM STILL SHOWING 295 K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT GIVE ONE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY IS CARVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
RESPONSE DOWN LOW/RADAR ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK. WITH THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND FURTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSE
TO THE PARENT SURFACE LOW...SEEMS APPROPRIATE.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT (925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 7
C) COUPLED WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD OR ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BE POSITIONED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT
OVER THE STRAITS TO START THE DAY MONDAY. SE MICHIGAN WILL BE
SUBJECTED TO MILD SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODEST RAIN
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING TRANSITIONS TO UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS AND INTERACTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL
BUILD FULLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z AND CONSIST OF SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING
TO ABOUT 50 F AND 850 MB DEWPOINT NEAR 5 C. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE CONVINCINGLY OVER OHIO AND ONTARIO IN THE
NAM OUTPUT BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE SHOWN
IN MODEL DATA TO STEEPEN NEAR 7.5 C/KM AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROACHING -23 C. MODEL
THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMMENSURATE WITH 850 MB LI AROUND -1 C WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH
DCVA FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED STORM POSSIBILITY.

AFTER A PAUSE IMMEDIATELY POST FRONT...EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO WRAP
AROUND THE WAVE AND LINGER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING MONDAY EVENING...
BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A NORTHEAST COMPONENT AND WRING OUT ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
HURON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATE
SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH POINTS TO
DEVELOPING LAKE INSTABILITY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR DEEP INLAND
PROGRESS AND FOR SHOWERS TO HAVE ENOUGH LONGEVITY TO CARRY WELL INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES AND THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES OVER. THE PACE OF THIS TRANSITION LOOKS SOLID IN THE
LARGER SCALE MODEL PRESSURE AND LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS
SOLUTIONS...BUT THE PACE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SUGGESTS A SLOWER
CLEARING TREND TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE THERMAL TROUGH TO
DEPART AND SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD IN. CALLED FOR A SLOWER BURNOFF OF
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
NICE WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY. ONE
THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS
WAVE SHEARING OUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO WEATHER LOCALLY SAVE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE STRAITS BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WITH A PATTERN OF
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS LOOKS SOLID WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO
GALES EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL
YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY BUT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY ALTERING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND LIMITING THE GRADIENT
FLOW. NO GALE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1238 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO MBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20 KFT)/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BT/DT
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191638
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1238 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO MBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20 KFT)/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 191638
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1238 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SOURCED LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO MBS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 20 KFT)/DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 5000 FEET TOWARD
  SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 191101
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DRYING LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL THEN MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  THIS MOISTURE MAY
RESULT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
INTERMITTENT MVFR AT MBS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 191101
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DRYING LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL STRATOCU
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL THEN MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  THIS MOISTURE MAY
RESULT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
INTERMITTENT MVFR AT MBS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






000
FXUS63 KDTX 190758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 190758
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS FILTERED IN OVER THE
THUMB REGION AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CLEAR UP LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND
TURNS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. WITH
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO 900 MB HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...ENDING UP OVER THE SOO BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT A PREMIUM...WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR INHIBITING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IN
ADDITION LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT
TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND OUT TO THE WEST THE THE ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCY POPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MODELS WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACTIVE NORTHERN PACIFIC JET CORE WILL PROMPT THE SOUTHEASTWARD
EJECTION AND DEEPENING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
LEAD WING OF MODEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING POST-DAYBREAK.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A RATHER
DISORGANIZED PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH THIS PROCESS...BUT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING PERIOD /PARTICULARLY
NORTH/.  RENEWED FORCING WILL EMERGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ASSOCIATED 500 MB
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -23C RANGE DURING THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LAPSE RATES AND
A PERIOD OF SOLID CVA.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONTAL TIMING
WILL YIELD ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME OF A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WILL SUSTAIN AN UNSETTLED/CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.  WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN RESPONSE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  TROUGH AXIS
DEFINING THIS WIND SHIFT MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN
THE ADDED MOISTURE FLUX CONTRIBUTION OFF LAKE HURON.

EXITING LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK.  NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.  THIS LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL POSITION SE MICHIGAN FAVORABLY FOR SEEING AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF CONDITIONS DICTATED BY LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE INCREASING THICKNESS FIELD WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DAYTIME HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 60
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL EASE WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.  POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER GRADIENT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30 KNOT
RANGE...WITH AT LEAST A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL GUSTS TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  CONFIDENCE IN GALES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 190509
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 190509
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
109 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE TAF SITES
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TAKEN
HOLD FROM FNT SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS MBS
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 2500 TO
3000 FT. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN A FEW
HOURS AS THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY...ENDING THE ADVECTION OF CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SUNDAY WILL BE A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY
AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD OR INTO
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 182313
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MAKING HEADWAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A CLEARING TREND OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. CLEARING IS MAKING A STEADY MARCH SOUTHWARD...WITH CLEARING
OVER MBS AND ON THE DOOR AT FNT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE METRO AIRPORTS BY 03Z. ONE THING TO MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF
LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND
FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM
NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE
RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD
THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 182313
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
713 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MAKING HEADWAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A CLEARING TREND OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. CLEARING IS MAKING A STEADY MARCH SOUTHWARD...WITH CLEARING
OVER MBS AND ON THE DOOR AT FNT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE METRO AIRPORTS BY 03Z. ONE THING TO MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF
LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND
FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM
NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE
RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD
THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181947
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CARRYING IN COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUD
COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILING REMAINS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE LOWER END OF
VFR BELOW 5000 FT AND THEN LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A CLEARING TREND OVER SE
MICHIGAN FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF
STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY
TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 181947
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CARRYING IN COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUD
COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILING REMAINS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE LOWER END OF
VFR BELOW 5000 FT AND THEN LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A CLEARING TREND OVER SE
MICHIGAN FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF
STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY
TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 181947
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CARRYING IN COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUD
COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILING REMAINS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE LOWER END OF
VFR BELOW 5000 FT AND THEN LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A CLEARING TREND OVER SE
MICHIGAN FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF
STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY
TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).









000
FXUS63 KDTX 181947
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES TO CARRY COOLER AIR INTO SE MICHIGAN
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FROSTY NIGHT AS THE WIND DROPS OFF AND MIN TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING. READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
INTERIOR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND MORE STABLE TOWARD EVENING...A
TREND ILLUSTRATED IN THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS BETWEEN APX AND
DTX...AND REFLECTED IN RADAR TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THERE...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GAGE THE MODEL SOUNDING QUALITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN STICKING POINT LIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE BASE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT DROPS AS LOW AS 900 MB BY 12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ABOUT
AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN THE CLOUDIER NAM AND RAP MODELS VS THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC GFS AND SREF MEAN. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE
LATTER AS DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPSTREAM CLOUDS TAKING ON A CONVINCING
LAKE INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL DEPENDENCY OVER LAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NOCTURNAL STRATOCU REMAINING CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES. NEUTRAL
NORTH-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO FAVORS LESS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA
WITH A DRY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY FROM NORTHERN LOWER INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND OVER THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN THUMB WHERE A LONGER
OVER WATER FETCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT STURGEON POINT
SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD MAINTAIN GREATER STRATOCU COVERAGE THERE
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MODEST HEIGHT RISES TOMORROW WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SCOURING OUT OF REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS NAM SOUNDINGS/925 MB RH FIELD STILL PAINTS A POTENTIAL
CLOUD HINDRANCE...AND A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN MAXES WILL
BE TAKEN OFF THE COLD START AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS FORECASTED TO ONLY
RISE TO 4 C DURING PEAK HEATING...WORTHY OF MAXES AROUND 50/LOWER
50S DE AS HIGH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BE CARVING OUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS WE HEAD
INTO MONDAY. THE RATE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...ARRIVING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
SEEMING APPROPRIATE. 500 MB COLD CORE (-23 TO-25 C) TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND LI`S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TOWARD ZERO...WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE (PER NAM)...AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS IN CASE AMPLIFICATION IS FASTER...YIELDING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OUT PROCESS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE
AND WILL DROP THE GALE WARNINGS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES INTO
TONIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE GREATEST. HIGHER WAVES
WILL IMPACT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CARRYING IN COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUD
COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILING REMAINS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE LOWER END OF
VFR BELOW 5000 FT AND THEN LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A CLEARING TREND OVER SE
MICHIGAN FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF
STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY
TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 181703
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CARRYING IN COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUD
COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILING REMAINS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE LOWER END OF
VFR BELOW 5000 FT AND THEN LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A CLEARING TREND OVER SE
MICHIGAN FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF
STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY
TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1023 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATE...

THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TARGET CALLING FOR DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LATE DECREASING CLOUD
TREND. THIS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO TOUCH 50 BUT NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH WILL HOLD APPARENT TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO 40.
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IS BEING DRIVEN BY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DEPICTED IN THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING WHICH WILL BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY SHALLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHOWN IN THE APX
SOUNDING. OTHERWISE...PLAN TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER
WAVE BRUSHING SW LOWER WITH A PATTERN OF RAIN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A TRACK TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WHILE PERHAPS BRUSHING THE
SOUTHERN U.S. 23 CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATTENDANT LOW IS VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT SURGES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
RIDGING WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS...SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE ACTUAL
SURFACE FROPA. DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY GIVEN THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MORE CLEARING
IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BRING PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT OVER THE EAST WHERE THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES AND LATER CLEARING OUT OF THE CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

1024MB SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SUSTAIN A STABLE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCALLY ON SUNDAY.  A
HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION WILL WORK TOWARD MODERATING A COOLER
RESIDENT AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THERMAL RESPONSE WILL BE
HELD IN CHECK WITH THE EMERGING WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM LARGELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  850 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
2 TO 4 C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...GOOD FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AGAIN WITHIN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL EJECT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...UNDERGOING STEADY AMPLIFICATION AS IT
ENTERS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY IN RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE INBOUND HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODEST PERIOD OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY BLANKET THE LOWER PENINSULA UNDER AN MORE
EXTENSIVE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CAPPING LOWS
IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES.  THE BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND OVERALL FORCING DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT.  THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE DEFINED POP GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS STRIPED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB.

THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES THE GREATEST ATTENDANT MID LEVEL ASCENT
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AUGMENTATION LIKELY
FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES.  THIS POINTS TO SEEING A PERIOD OF
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TRAILING CYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE EASTWARD.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW/WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE PROGRESSIVE HOLD BY MID WEEK AS THE
REGION SETTLES BETWEEN A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE WILL
RESULT A STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

MARINE...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH TODAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE...INCLUDING EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES FROM PORT
AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME.   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE
PARTIALLY SHELTERED ZONES OF SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE ZONES
FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MAY APPROACH MARGINAL GALES AT
TIMES...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN TRUE GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ443...UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








000
FXUS63 KDTX 181703
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

NORTHWEST FLOW CARRYING IN COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CLOUD
COVER OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILING REMAINS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE LOWER END OF
VFR BELOW 5000 FT AND THEN LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DTW TERMINAL CORRIDOR. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DRYING AND MIXING OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH STILL SUPPORTS A CLEARING TREND OVER SE
MICHIGAN FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO
MONITOR WILL BE COVERAGE OF LAKE INDUCED STRATOCU AND/OR TRAPPING OF
STRATOCU BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FROM ABOUT 320 IS TYPICALLY A DRY
TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS INDUCED BY LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY BECOME MORE RELEVANT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND BACKS TOWARD THE WEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1023 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATE...

THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TARGET CALLING FOR DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LATE DECREASING CLOUD
TREND. THIS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO TOUCH 50 BUT NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH WILL HOLD APPARENT TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO 40.
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IS BEING DRIVEN BY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DEPICTED IN THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING WHICH WILL BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY SHALLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHOWN IN THE APX
SOUNDING. OTHERWISE...PLAN TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER
WAVE BRUSHING SW LOWER WITH A PATTERN OF RAIN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A TRACK TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WHILE PERHAPS BRUSHING THE
SOUTHERN U.S. 23 CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATTENDANT LOW IS VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT SURGES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
RIDGING WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS...SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE ACTUAL
SURFACE FROPA. DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY GIVEN THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MORE CLEARING
IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BRING PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT OVER THE EAST WHERE THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES AND LATER CLEARING OUT OF THE CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

1024MB SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SUSTAIN A STABLE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCALLY ON SUNDAY.  A
HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION WILL WORK TOWARD MODERATING A COOLER
RESIDENT AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THERMAL RESPONSE WILL BE
HELD IN CHECK WITH THE EMERGING WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM LARGELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  850 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
2 TO 4 C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...GOOD FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AGAIN WITHIN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL EJECT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...UNDERGOING STEADY AMPLIFICATION AS IT
ENTERS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY IN RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE INBOUND HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODEST PERIOD OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY BLANKET THE LOWER PENINSULA UNDER AN MORE
EXTENSIVE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CAPPING LOWS
IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES.  THE BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND OVERALL FORCING DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT.  THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE DEFINED POP GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS STRIPED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB.

THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES THE GREATEST ATTENDANT MID LEVEL ASCENT
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AUGMENTATION LIKELY
FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES.  THIS POINTS TO SEEING A PERIOD OF
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TRAILING CYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE EASTWARD.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW/WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE PROGRESSIVE HOLD BY MID WEEK AS THE
REGION SETTLES BETWEEN A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE WILL
RESULT A STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

MARINE...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH TODAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE...INCLUDING EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES FROM PORT
AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME.   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE
PARTIALLY SHELTERED ZONES OF SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE ZONES
FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MAY APPROACH MARGINAL GALES AT
TIMES...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN TRUE GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ443...UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181423
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1023 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TARGET CALLING FOR DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LATE DECREASING CLOUD
TREND. THIS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO TOUCH 50 BUT NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH WILL HOLD APPARENT TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO 40.
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IS BEING DRIVEN BY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DEPICTED IN THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING WHICH WILL BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY SHALLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHOWN IN THE APX
SOUNDING. OTHERWISE...PLAN TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER
WAVE BRUSHING SW LOWER WITH A PATTERN OF RAIN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A TRACK TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WHILE PERHAPS BRUSHING THE
SOUTHERN U.S. 23 CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 654 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND COLDER POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN
AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK TODAY.  RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING...WITH ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITION
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING.  LOW VFR AREAWIDE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.  A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND GUSTINESS
WILL EASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATTENDANT LOW IS VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT SURGES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
RIDGING WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS...SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE ACTUAL
SURFACE FROPA. DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY GIVEN THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MORE CLEARING
IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BRING PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT OVER THE EAST WHERE THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES AND LATER CLEARING OUT OF THE CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

1024MB SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SUSTAIN A STABLE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCALLY ON SUNDAY.  A
HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION WILL WORK TOWARD MODERATING A COOLER
RESIDENT AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THERMAL RESPONSE WILL BE
HELD IN CHECK WITH THE EMERGING WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM LARGELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  850 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
2 TO 4 C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...GOOD FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AGAIN WITHIN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL EJECT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...UNDERGOING STEADY AMPLIFICATION AS IT
ENTERS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY IN RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE INBOUND HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODEST PERIOD OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY BLANKET THE LOWER PENINSULA UNDER AN MORE
EXTENSIVE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CAPPING LOWS
IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES.  THE BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND OVERALL FORCING DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT.  THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE DEFINED POP GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS STRIPED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB.

THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES THE GREATEST ATTENDANT MID LEVEL ASCENT
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AUGMENTATION LIKELY
FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES.  THIS POINTS TO SEEING A PERIOD OF
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TRAILING CYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE EASTWARD.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW/WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE PROGRESSIVE HOLD BY MID WEEK AS THE
REGION SETTLES BETWEEN A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE WILL
RESULT A STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

MARINE...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH TODAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE...INCLUDING EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES FROM PORT
AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME.   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE
PARTIALLY SHELTERED ZONES OF SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE ZONES
FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MAY APPROACH MARGINAL GALES AT
TIMES...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN TRUE GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ443...UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).










000
FXUS63 KDTX 181054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND COLDER POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN
AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK TODAY.  RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING...WITH ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITION
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING.  LOW VFR AREAWIDE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.  A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND GUSTINESS
WILL EASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATTENDANT LOW IS VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT SURGES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
RIDGING WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS...SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE ACTUAL
SURFACE FROPA. DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY GIVEN THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

THE AFOREMENTINED RIDGING WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MORE CLEARING
IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BRING PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT OVER THE EAST WHERE THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES AND LATER CLEARING OUT OF THE CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

1024MB SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SUSTAIN A STABLE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCALLY ON SUNDAY.  A
HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION WILL WORK TOWARD MODERATING A COOLER
RESIDENT AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THERMAL RESPONSE WILL BE
HELD IN CHECK WITH THE EMERGING WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM LARGELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  850 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
2 TO 4 C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...GOOD FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AGAIN WITHIN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL EJECT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...UNDERGOING STEADY AMPLIFICATION AS IT
ENTERS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY IN RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE INBOUND HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODEST PERIOD OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY BLANKET THE LOWER PENINSULA UNDER AN MORE
EXTENSIVE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CAPPING LOWS
IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES.  THE BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND OVERALL FORCING DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT.  THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE DEFINED POP GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS STRIPED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB.

THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES THE GREATEST ATTENDANT MID LEVEL ASCENT
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AUGMENTATION LIKELY
FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES.  THIS POINTS TO SEEING A PERIOD OF
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TRAILING CYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE EASTWARD.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW/WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE PROGRESSIVE HOLD BY MID WEEK AS THE
REGION SETTLES BETWEEN A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE WILL
RESULT A STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

MARINE...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH TODAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE...INCLUDING EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES FROM PORT
AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME.   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE
PARTIALLY SHELTERED ZONES OF SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE ZONES
FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MAY APPROACH MARGINAL GALES AT
TIMES...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN TRUE GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ443...UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....30
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND COLDER POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN
AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK TODAY.  RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING...WITH ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITION
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING.  LOW VFR AREAWIDE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.  A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND GUSTINESS
WILL EASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATTENDANT LOW IS VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT SURGES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
RIDGING WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS...SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE ACTUAL
SURFACE FROPA. DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY GIVEN THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

THE AFOREMENTINED RIDGING WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MORE CLEARING
IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BRING PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT OVER THE EAST WHERE THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES AND LATER CLEARING OUT OF THE CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

1024MB SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SUSTAIN A STABLE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCALLY ON SUNDAY.  A
HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION WILL WORK TOWARD MODERATING A COOLER
RESIDENT AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THERMAL RESPONSE WILL BE
HELD IN CHECK WITH THE EMERGING WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM LARGELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  850 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
2 TO 4 C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...GOOD FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AGAIN WITHIN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL EJECT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...UNDERGOING STEADY AMPLIFICATION AS IT
ENTERS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY IN RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE INBOUND HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODEST PERIOD OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY BLANKET THE LOWER PENINSULA UNDER AN MORE
EXTENSIVE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CAPPING LOWS
IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES.  THE BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND OVERALL FORCING DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT.  THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE DEFINED POP GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS STRIPED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB.

THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES THE GREATEST ATTENDANT MID LEVEL ASCENT
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AUGMENTATION LIKELY
FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES.  THIS POINTS TO SEEING A PERIOD OF
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TRAILING CYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE EASTWARD.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW/WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE PROGRESSIVE HOLD BY MID WEEK AS THE
REGION SETTLES BETWEEN A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE WILL
RESULT A STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

MARINE...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH TODAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE...INCLUDING EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES FROM PORT
AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME.   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE
PARTIALLY SHELTERED ZONES OF SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE ZONES
FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MAY APPROACH MARGINAL GALES AT
TIMES...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN TRUE GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ443...UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....30
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).







000
FXUS63 KDTX 181054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND COLDER POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN
AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK TODAY.  RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING...WITH ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITION
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING.  LOW VFR AREAWIDE
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.  A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  THE OVERALL GRADIENT AND GUSTINESS
WILL EASE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATTENDANT LOW IS VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS IT SURGES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
RIDGING WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS...SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE ACTUAL
SURFACE FROPA. DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY GIVEN THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEVERELY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.

THE AFOREMENTINED RIDGING WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MORE CLEARING
IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BRING PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT OVER THE EAST WHERE THE
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKES AND LATER CLEARING OUT OF THE CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

1024MB SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SUSTAIN A STABLE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCALLY ON SUNDAY.  A
HIGHER DEGREE OF INSOLATION WILL WORK TOWARD MODERATING A COOLER
RESIDENT AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THERMAL RESPONSE WILL BE
HELD IN CHECK WITH THE EMERGING WARM AIR ADVECTION UPSTREAM LARGELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.  850 MB TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE
2 TO 4 C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...GOOD FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AGAIN WITHIN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL EJECT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...UNDERGOING STEADY AMPLIFICATION AS IT
ENTERS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY IN RESPONSE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE INBOUND HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODEST PERIOD OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.  THIS WILL QUICKLY BLANKET THE LOWER PENINSULA UNDER AN MORE
EXTENSIVE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT...LIKELY CAPPING LOWS
IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES.  THE BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND OVERALL FORCING DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT.  THIS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE DEFINED POP GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHEST POPS STRIPED ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND
THUMB.

THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE MONDAY PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES THE GREATEST ATTENDANT MID LEVEL ASCENT
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AUGMENTATION LIKELY
FROM DIURNAL PROCESSES.  THIS POINTS TO SEEING A PERIOD OF
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TRAILING CYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE EASTWARD.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FLOW/WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE PROGRESSIVE HOLD BY MID WEEK AS THE
REGION SETTLES BETWEEN A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE WILL
RESULT A STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

MARINE...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH TODAY.
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE...INCLUDING EXPOSED NEARSHORE ZONES FROM PORT
AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC.  GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS TIME.   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE
PARTIALLY SHELTERED ZONES OF SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE ZONES
FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MAY APPROACH MARGINAL GALES AT
TIMES...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN TRUE GALE CONDITIONS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ443...UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....30
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








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