Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KDTX 260521
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1221 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS LOCKED WITHIN THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z RUN INDICATE THE CLOUDS
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR AND DISPLACES ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO HELP WITH A MODEST DIMINISHING TREND. SOME
ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU WILL THEN BE GENERATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
INFLUENCED MUCH BY INCREASED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND WITH A SHORT
FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ERIE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
THEN REMAIN FLAT BETWEEN DEPARTING THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE NEXT
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE MIDWEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WIND TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1020 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE...

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS
SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID DECK OF STRATUS TRAPPED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN
AUGMENTED BY LIGHT BUT COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
DTX 00Z SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHERS AROUND THE REGION
THAT DEPICT A SHARP INVERSION DUCTING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
ENOUGH DEPTH TO ENSURE PERSISTENCE WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL DEPICTIONS OF A SLOW EASTWARD
PACE ON THE SURFACE HIGH SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EVENING UPDATE REFLECTS THIS TREND ALONG
WITH AN UPWARD NUDGE ON MIN TEMPS THAT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID
20S BY SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN ADDITION...THE SOLID STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING EDGEWAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BULK OF FORCING IN THE REGION
TIED TO THIS WAVE AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL
UPSTREAM, SE MICHIGAN WILL BE LEFT IN A RATHER BENIGN ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM TODAY WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5
KNOTS OR LESS. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE INHERITED MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVEN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

NORTHERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DECENTLY MIXED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS TO THE MID 20S. CROSS-SECTIONS ON THURSDAY REVEAL
VERY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN OR ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE THE VERTICAL RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IN
THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK
PRETTY SOLID. COMBINED WITH A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 275K SURFACE AND MODEST AUGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, COULD SEE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORK
THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY BRINGING A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH
OF ACCUMS. STRONG DEPENDENCE ON SUB-700MB FORCING/DYNAMICS AND SHORT-
LIVED NATURE OF FORCING REALLY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE
POP. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO -13C SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BATTLE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL WIN-OUT AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATITUDINAL FLOW 115
KT JET. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SURFACE FEATURE /HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA/ WILL GET LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...BUT NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BRING COLD TEMPS BACK TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THOSE GRIDS COOLER WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES PAST DAY 4.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EASING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 3 TO 5 FOOT THRESHOLD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OR NEAR-GALES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN DURATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 260521
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1221 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

MVFR STRATUS REMAINS LOCKED WITHIN THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z RUN INDICATE THE CLOUDS
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR AND DISPLACES ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO HELP WITH A MODEST DIMINISHING TREND. SOME
ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU WILL THEN BE GENERATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
INFLUENCED MUCH BY INCREASED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND WITH A SHORT
FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ERIE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
THEN REMAIN FLAT BETWEEN DEPARTING THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE NEXT
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE MIDWEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WIND TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1020 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE...

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS
SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID DECK OF STRATUS TRAPPED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN
AUGMENTED BY LIGHT BUT COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
DTX 00Z SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHERS AROUND THE REGION
THAT DEPICT A SHARP INVERSION DUCTING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
ENOUGH DEPTH TO ENSURE PERSISTENCE WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL DEPICTIONS OF A SLOW EASTWARD
PACE ON THE SURFACE HIGH SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EVENING UPDATE REFLECTS THIS TREND ALONG
WITH AN UPWARD NUDGE ON MIN TEMPS THAT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID
20S BY SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN ADDITION...THE SOLID STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING EDGEWAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BULK OF FORCING IN THE REGION
TIED TO THIS WAVE AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL
UPSTREAM, SE MICHIGAN WILL BE LEFT IN A RATHER BENIGN ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM TODAY WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5
KNOTS OR LESS. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE INHERITED MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVEN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

NORTHERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DECENTLY MIXED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS TO THE MID 20S. CROSS-SECTIONS ON THURSDAY REVEAL
VERY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN OR ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE THE VERTICAL RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IN
THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK
PRETTY SOLID. COMBINED WITH A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 275K SURFACE AND MODEST AUGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, COULD SEE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORK
THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY BRINGING A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH
OF ACCUMS. STRONG DEPENDENCE ON SUB-700MB FORCING/DYNAMICS AND SHORT-
LIVED NATURE OF FORCING REALLY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE
POP. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO -13C SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BATTLE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL WIN-OUT AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATITUDINAL FLOW 115
KT JET. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SURFACE FEATURE /HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA/ WILL GET LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...BUT NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BRING COLD TEMPS BACK TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THOSE GRIDS COOLER WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES PAST DAY 4.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EASING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 3 TO 5 FOOT THRESHOLD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OR NEAR-GALES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN DURATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 260320
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1020 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS
SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID DECK OF STRATUS TRAPPED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN
AUGMENTED BY LIGHT BUT COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
DTX 00Z SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHERS AROUND THE REGION
THAT DEPICT A SHARP INVERSION DUCTING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
ENOUGH DEPTH TO ENSURE PERSISTENCE WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL DEPICTIONS OF A SLOW EASTWARD
PACE ON THE SURFACE HIGH SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EVENING UPDATE REFLECTS THIS TREND ALONG
WITH AN UPWARD NUDGE ON MIN TEMPS THAT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID
20S BY SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 653 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING INDICATE
MVFR STRATUS LOCKED WITHIN THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF DIURNAL DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKES...
EXPECT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR. INCREASED
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MARK THE
TRANSITION WITH A SHORT FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ERIE PRODUCING
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL CLOUD MOISTURE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
THE REMAIN FLAT DURING WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE MIDWEST. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN ADDITION...THE SOLID STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING EDGEWAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BULK OF FORCING IN THE REGION
TIED TO THIS WAVE AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL
UPSTREAM, SE MICHIGAN WILL BE LEFT IN A RATHER BENIGN ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM TODAY WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5
KNOTS OR LESS. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE INHERITED MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVEN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

NORTHERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DECENTLY MIXED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS TO THE MID 20S. CROSS-SECTIONS ON THURSDAY REVEAL
VERY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN OR ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE THE VERTICAL RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IN
THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK
PRETTY SOLID. COMBINED WITH A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 275K SURFACE AND MODEST AUGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, COULD SEE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORK
THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY BRINGING A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH
OF ACCUMS. STRONG DEPENDENCE ON SUB-700MB FORCING/DYNAMICS AND SHORT-
LIVED NATURE OF FORCING REALLY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE
POP. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO -13C SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BATTLE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL WIN-OUT AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATITUDINAL FLOW 115
KT JET. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SURFACE FEATURE /HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA/ WILL GET LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...BUT NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BRING COLD TEMPS BACK TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THOSE GRIDS COOLER WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES PAST DAY 4.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EASING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 3 TO 5 FOOT THRESHOLD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OR NEAR-GALES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN DURATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 260320
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1020 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS
SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOLID DECK OF STRATUS TRAPPED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN
AUGMENTED BY LIGHT BUT COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
DTX 00Z SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHERS AROUND THE REGION
THAT DEPICT A SHARP INVERSION DUCTING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
ENOUGH DEPTH TO ENSURE PERSISTENCE WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL DEPICTIONS OF A SLOW EASTWARD
PACE ON THE SURFACE HIGH SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EVENING UPDATE REFLECTS THIS TREND ALONG
WITH AN UPWARD NUDGE ON MIN TEMPS THAT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID
20S BY SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 653 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING INDICATE
MVFR STRATUS LOCKED WITHIN THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF DIURNAL DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKES...
EXPECT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR. INCREASED
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MARK THE
TRANSITION WITH A SHORT FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ERIE PRODUCING
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL CLOUD MOISTURE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
THE REMAIN FLAT DURING WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE MIDWEST. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN ADDITION...THE SOLID STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING EDGEWAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BULK OF FORCING IN THE REGION
TIED TO THIS WAVE AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL
UPSTREAM, SE MICHIGAN WILL BE LEFT IN A RATHER BENIGN ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM TODAY WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5
KNOTS OR LESS. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE INHERITED MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVEN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

NORTHERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DECENTLY MIXED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS TO THE MID 20S. CROSS-SECTIONS ON THURSDAY REVEAL
VERY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN OR ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE THE VERTICAL RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IN
THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK
PRETTY SOLID. COMBINED WITH A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 275K SURFACE AND MODEST AUGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, COULD SEE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORK
THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY BRINGING A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH
OF ACCUMS. STRONG DEPENDENCE ON SUB-700MB FORCING/DYNAMICS AND SHORT-
LIVED NATURE OF FORCING REALLY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE
POP. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO -13C SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BATTLE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL WIN-OUT AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATITUDINAL FLOW 115
KT JET. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SURFACE FEATURE /HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA/ WILL GET LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...BUT NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BRING COLD TEMPS BACK TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THOSE GRIDS COOLER WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES PAST DAY 4.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EASING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 3 TO 5 FOOT THRESHOLD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OR NEAR-GALES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN DURATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 252353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING INDICATE
MVFR STRATUS LOCKED WITHIN THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF DIURNAL DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKES...
EXPECT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR. INCREASED
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MARK THE
TRANSITION WITH A SHORT FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ERIE PRODUCING
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL CLOUD MOISTURE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
THE REMAIN FLAT DURING WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE MIDWEST. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN ADDITION...THE SOLID STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING EDGEWAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BULK OF FORCING IN THE REGION
TIED TO THIS WAVE AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL
UPSTREAM, SE MICHIGAN WILL BE LEFT IN A RATHER BENIGN ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM TODAY WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5
KNOTS OR LESS. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE INHERITED MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVEN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

NORTHERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DECENTLY MIXED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS TO THE MID 20S. CROSS-SECTIONS ON THURSDAY REVEAL
VERY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN OR ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE THE VERTICAL RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IN
THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK
PRETTY SOLID. COMBINED WITH A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 275K SURFACE AND MODEST AUGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, COULD SEE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORK
THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY BRINGING A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH
OF ACCUMS. STRONG DEPENDENCE ON SUB-700MB FORCING/DYNAMICS AND SHORT-
LIVED NATURE OF FORCING REALLY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE
POP. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO -13C SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BATTLE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL WIN-OUT AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATITUDINAL FLOW 115
KT JET. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SURFACE FEATURE /HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA/ WILL GET LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...BUT NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BRING COLD TEMPS BACK TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THOSE GRIDS COOLER WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES PAST DAY 4.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EASING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 3 TO 5 FOOT THRESHOLD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OR NEAR-GALES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN DURATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 252353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING INDICATE
MVFR STRATUS LOCKED WITHIN THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF DIURNAL DISSIPATION OF THESE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE LAKES...
EXPECT A SLOWER CLEARING TREND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE NIGHT.
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR. INCREASED
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MARK THE
TRANSITION WITH A SHORT FETCH OVER LAKES HURON AND ERIE PRODUCING
MINIMAL ADDITIONAL CLOUD MOISTURE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
THE REMAIN FLAT DURING WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE NEXT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE MIDWEST. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN ADDITION...THE SOLID STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING EDGEWAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BULK OF FORCING IN THE REGION
TIED TO THIS WAVE AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL
UPSTREAM, SE MICHIGAN WILL BE LEFT IN A RATHER BENIGN ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM TODAY WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5
KNOTS OR LESS. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE INHERITED MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVEN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

NORTHERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DECENTLY MIXED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS TO THE MID 20S. CROSS-SECTIONS ON THURSDAY REVEAL
VERY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN OR ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE THE VERTICAL RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IN
THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK
PRETTY SOLID. COMBINED WITH A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 275K SURFACE AND MODEST AUGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, COULD SEE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORK
THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY BRINGING A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH
OF ACCUMS. STRONG DEPENDENCE ON SUB-700MB FORCING/DYNAMICS AND SHORT-
LIVED NATURE OF FORCING REALLY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE
POP. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO -13C SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BATTLE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL WIN-OUT AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATITUDINAL FLOW 115
KT JET. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SURFACE FEATURE /HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA/ WILL GET LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...BUT NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BRING COLD TEMPS BACK TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THOSE GRIDS COOLER WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES PAST DAY 4.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EASING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 3 TO 5 FOOT THRESHOLD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OR NEAR-GALES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN DURATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 252044
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN ADDITION...THE SOLID STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING EDGEWAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BULK OF FORCING IN THE REGION
TIED TO THIS WAVE AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL
UPSTREAM, SE MICHIGAN WILL BE LEFT IN A RATHER BENIGN ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM TODAY WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5
KNOTS OR LESS. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE INHERITED MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVEN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

NORTHERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DECENTLY MIXED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS TO THE MID 20S. CROSS-SECTIONS ON THURSDAY REVEAL
VERY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN OR ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE THE VERTICAL RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IN
THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK
PRETTY SOLID. COMBINED WITH A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 275K SURFACE AND MODEST AUGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, COULD SEE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORK
THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY BRINGING A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH
OF ACCUMS. STRONG DEPENDENCE ON SUB-700MB FORCING/DYNAMICS AND SHORT-
LIVED NATURE OF FORCING REALLY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE
POP. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO -13C SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BATTLE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL WIN-OUT AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATITUDINAL FLOW 115
KT JET. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SURFACE FEATURE /HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA/ WILL GET LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...BUT NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BRING COLD TEMPS BACK TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THOSE GRIDS COOLER WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES PAST DAY 4.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EASING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 3 TO 5 FOOT THRESHOLD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OR NEAR-GALES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1214 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FNT AND
MBS/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED HEAVY BANDS
WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES TO DIMINISH IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT
IMPACT THE SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
BEFORE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIMINISH.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

FOR DTW...CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  THE TAF PERIOD.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....RK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 252044
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CWA
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARDS NIGHTFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE
PLACE AFTER 00Z RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CAUSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN ADDITION...THE SOLID STRATUS DECK
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING EDGEWAVE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE BULK OF FORCING IN THE REGION
TIED TO THIS WAVE AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL
UPSTREAM, SE MICHIGAN WILL BE LEFT IN A RATHER BENIGN ZONE ON
WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.
LITTLE AIRMASS MODIFICATION FROM TODAY WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5
KNOTS OR LESS. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE INHERITED MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVEN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.

NORTHERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND DECENTLY MIXED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS TO THE MID 20S. CROSS-SECTIONS ON THURSDAY REVEAL
VERY HIGH STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN OR ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE THE VERTICAL RESPONSE TO THE WAVE IN
THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK
PRETTY SOLID. COMBINED WITH A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SR ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 275K SURFACE AND MODEST AUGMENTATION OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM THE LAKE AGGREGATE, COULD SEE A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WORK
THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY BRINGING A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH
OF ACCUMS. STRONG DEPENDENCE ON SUB-700MB FORCING/DYNAMICS AND SHORT-
LIVED NATURE OF FORCING REALLY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE
POP. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO -13C SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
BATTLE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL WIN-OUT AS IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATITUDINAL FLOW 115
KT JET. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND. NEXT SURFACE FEATURE /HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA/ WILL GET LITTLE UPPER AIR
SUPPORT...BUT NONETHELESS LOOKS TO BRING COLD TEMPS BACK TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THOSE GRIDS COOLER WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES PAST DAY 4.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES ARE EASING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ALL GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE TIP OF THE THUMB HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 3 TO 5 FOOT THRESHOLD. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
NORTHWESTERLY GALES OR NEAR-GALES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS IN DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1214 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FNT AND
MBS/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED HEAVY BANDS
WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES TO DIMINISH IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT
IMPACT THE SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
BEFORE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIMINISH.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

FOR DTW...CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  THE TAF PERIOD.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....RK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 251714
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES /FNT AND
MBS/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED HEAVY BANDS
WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES TO DIMINISH IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT
IMPACT THE SITES. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
BEFORE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIMINISH.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

FOR DTW...CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF DTW. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH
  THE TAF PERIOD.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED THIS MORNING AT THE EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT
FALL GRADIENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL ANCHORED
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...WORKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER IN RESPONSE TO THIS PROCESS...A
PERIOD OF WEAK CONVERGENCE EMERGING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH. OVERLAKE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESS REMAINS LIMITED...
WITH CONVECTIVE DEPTH CAPPED BELOW 4000 FT AND 0-1 KM THETA-E LAPSE
RATES BELOW 6 C/KM.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...LEAVING A MOIST LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  GREATER PROSPECTS WILL EXIST TOWARD THE NORTH...A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO RECEIVE BOTH THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND CVA
TIED TO THE PASSING WAVE.  A TIGHTER SOUTH TO NORTH POP GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACCORDINGLY...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH /TRI-CITIES TO I-69 CORRIDOR/.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER LITTLE OFF THE MORNING LOW...HIGHS
ARRIVING IN THE LOWER 30S.

WEAK WARMING BEHIND THE EXITING THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THE UPSTREAM LAKE PROCESSES.  WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME
TIME. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME DEGREE OF SCATTERING OF THE REMNANT
STRATUS CANOPY TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL REDUCTION TO THE WIND FIELD.
THIS WILL PRESENT A DESCENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...LOWS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE 20 DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.

LONG TERM...

SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...AS WE ARE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST (IOWA/MISSOURI) AND THE EAST COAST STORM
SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM IS ADAMANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER
THE 3000-4000 FOOT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WITH AN INVERSION THIS LOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
CLOUDS HOLDING AS BOUNDARY LAYER EXPANDS DURING THE DAY. WILL CALL
FOR BORDERLINE MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS 00Z EURO IS DRIER
AT 925 MB LEVEL. EITHER WAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE
AROUND -5 C...MAX TEMPS CLIMBING IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S SEEMS
REASONABLE...PER LATEST GUIDANCE.

FOR THURSDAY...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH JUST A WEAK
EXTENSION COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THERMAL PROFILES
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...AND MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THUS LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS THIS FAR EAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS STRONG UPPER WAVE/PV ANOMALY/JET STREAK WORKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/EXTREME SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY...PROVING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP...WITH JUST OVER 3 G/KG OF
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB TO WORK WITH. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER WAVE TO CHANGE (MUCH LIKE THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM)...AND THUS JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST GALES WINDS ARE CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 30 KNOTS...BUT STAY UNDER
GALE FORCE.  SURFACE HIGH RETURNING FOR FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY CAUSE
THE WINDS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....RK
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 251135
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
635 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM INTO THE MIDDAY PERIOD.
MOISTURE DEPTH MAY PROVE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...PARTICULARLY AT MBS/FNT GIVEN A MORE FAVORABLE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.  POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF DISRUPTIONS TO
VISIBILITY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THIS MORNING /20 TO 25 KNOTS/...BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WITH TIME FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SCATTERING
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED THIS MORNING AT THE EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT
FALL GRADIENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL ANCHORED
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...WORKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER IN RESPONSE TO THIS PROCESS...A
PERIOD OF WEAK CONVERGENCE EMERGING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH. OVERLAKE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESS REMAINS LIMITED...
WITH CONVECTIVE DEPTH CAPPED BELOW 4000 FT AND 0-1 KM THETA-E LAPSE
RATES BELOW 6 C/KM.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...LEAVING A MOIST LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  GREATER PROSPECTS WILL EXIST TOWARD THE NORTH...A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO RECEIVE BOTH THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND CVA
TIED TO THE PASSING WAVE.  A TIGHTER SOUTH TO NORTH POP GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACCORDINGLY...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH /TRI-CITIES TO I-69 CORRIDOR/.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER LITTLE OFF THE MORNING LOW...HIGHS
ARRIVING IN THE LOWER 30S.

WEAK WARMING BEHIND THE EXITING THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THE UPSTREAM LAKE PROCESSES.  WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME
TIME. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME DEGREE OF SCATTERING OF THE REMNANT
STRATUS CANOPY TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL REDUCTION TO THE WIND FIELD.
THIS WILL PRESENT A DESCENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...LOWS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE 20 DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.

LONG TERM...

SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...AS WE ARE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST (IOWA/MISSOURI) AND THE EAST COAST STORM
SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM IS ADAMANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER
THE 3000-4000 FOOT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WITH AN INVERSION THIS LOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
CLOUDS HOLDING AS BOUNDARY LAYER EXPANDS DURING THE DAY. WILL CALL
FOR BORDERLINE MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS 00Z EURO IS DRIER
AT 925 MB LEVEL. EITHER WAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE
AROUND -5 C...MAX TEMPS CLIMBING IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S SEEMS
REASONABLE...PER LATEST GUIDANCE.

FOR THURSDAY...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH JUST A WEAK
EXTENSION COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THERMAL PROFILES
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...AND MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THUS LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS THIS FAR EAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS STRONG UPPER WAVE/PV ANOMALY/JET STREAK WORKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/EXTREME SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY...PROVING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP...WITH JUST OVER 3 G/KG OF
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB TO WORK WITH. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER WAVE TO CHANGE (MUCH LIKE THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM)...AND THUS JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST GALES WINDS ARE CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 30 KNOTS...BUT STAY UNDER
GALE FORCE.  SURFACE HIGH RETURNING FOR FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY CAUSE
THE WINDS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ363-421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 251135
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
635 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM INTO THE MIDDAY PERIOD.
MOISTURE DEPTH MAY PROVE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...PARTICULARLY AT MBS/FNT GIVEN A MORE FAVORABLE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.  POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF DISRUPTIONS TO
VISIBILITY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THIS MORNING /20 TO 25 KNOTS/...BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WITH TIME FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SCATTERING
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 359 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED THIS MORNING AT THE EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT
FALL GRADIENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL ANCHORED
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...WORKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER IN RESPONSE TO THIS PROCESS...A
PERIOD OF WEAK CONVERGENCE EMERGING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH. OVERLAKE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESS REMAINS LIMITED...
WITH CONVECTIVE DEPTH CAPPED BELOW 4000 FT AND 0-1 KM THETA-E LAPSE
RATES BELOW 6 C/KM.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...LEAVING A MOIST LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  GREATER PROSPECTS WILL EXIST TOWARD THE NORTH...A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO RECEIVE BOTH THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND CVA
TIED TO THE PASSING WAVE.  A TIGHTER SOUTH TO NORTH POP GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACCORDINGLY...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH /TRI-CITIES TO I-69 CORRIDOR/.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER LITTLE OFF THE MORNING LOW...HIGHS
ARRIVING IN THE LOWER 30S.

WEAK WARMING BEHIND THE EXITING THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THE UPSTREAM LAKE PROCESSES.  WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME
TIME. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME DEGREE OF SCATTERING OF THE REMNANT
STRATUS CANOPY TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL REDUCTION TO THE WIND FIELD.
THIS WILL PRESENT A DESCENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...LOWS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE 20 DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.

LONG TERM...

SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...AS WE ARE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST (IOWA/MISSOURI) AND THE EAST COAST STORM
SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM IS ADAMANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER
THE 3000-4000 FOOT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WITH AN INVERSION THIS LOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
CLOUDS HOLDING AS BOUNDARY LAYER EXPANDS DURING THE DAY. WILL CALL
FOR BORDERLINE MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS 00Z EURO IS DRIER
AT 925 MB LEVEL. EITHER WAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE
AROUND -5 C...MAX TEMPS CLIMBING IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S SEEMS
REASONABLE...PER LATEST GUIDANCE.

FOR THURSDAY...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH JUST A WEAK
EXTENSION COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THERMAL PROFILES
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...AND MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THUS LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS THIS FAR EAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS STRONG UPPER WAVE/PV ANOMALY/JET STREAK WORKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/EXTREME SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY...PROVING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP...WITH JUST OVER 3 G/KG OF
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB TO WORK WITH. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER WAVE TO CHANGE (MUCH LIKE THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM)...AND THUS JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THIS POINT.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST GALES WINDS ARE CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 30 KNOTS...BUT STAY UNDER
GALE FORCE.  SURFACE HIGH RETURNING FOR FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY CAUSE
THE WINDS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ363-421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 250859
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
359 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED THIS MORNING AT THE EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT
FALL GRADIENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL ANCHORED
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...WORKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER IN RESPONSE TO THIS PROCESS...A
PERIOD OF WEAK CONVERGENCE EMERGING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH. OVERLAKE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESS REMAINS LIMITED...
WITH CONVECTIVE DEPTH CAPPED BELOW 4000 FT AND 0-1 KM THETA-E LAPSE
RATES BELOW 6 C/KM.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...LEAVING A MOIST LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  GREATER PROSPECTS WILL EXIST TOWARD THE NORTH...A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO RECEIVE BOTH THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND CVA
TIED TO THE PASSING WAVE.  A TIGHTER SOUTH TO NORTH POP GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACCORDINGLY...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH /TRI-CITIES TO I-69 CORRIDOR/.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER LITTLE OFF THE MORNING LOW...HIGHS
ARRIVING IN THE LOWER 30S.

WEAK WARMING BEHIND THE EXITING THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THE UPSTREAM LAKE PROCESSES.  WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME
TIME. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME DEGREE OF SCATTERING OF THE REMNANT
STRATUS CANOPY TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL REDUCTION TO THE WIND FIELD.
THIS WILL PRESENT A DESCENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...LOWS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE 20 DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...AS WE ARE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST (IOWA/MISSOURI) AND THE EAST COAST STORM
SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM IS ADAMANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER
THE 3000-4000 FOOT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WITH AN INVERSION THIS LOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
CLOUDS HOLDING AS BOUNDARY LAYER EXPANDS DURING THE DAY. WILL CALL
FOR BORDERLINE MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS 00Z EURO IS DRIER
AT 925 MB LEVEL. EITHER WAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE
AROUND -5 C...MAX TEMPS CLIMBING IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S SEEMS
REASONABLE...PER LATEST GUIDANCE.

FOR THURSDAY...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH JUST A WEAK
EXTENSION COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THERMAL PROFILES
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...AND MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THUS LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS THIS FAR EAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS STRONG UPPER WAVE/PV ANOMALY/JET STREAK WORKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/EXTREME SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY...PROVING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP...WITH JUST OVER 3 G/KG OF
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB TO WORK WITH. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER WAVE TO CHANGE (MUCH LIKE THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM)...AND THUS JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST GALES WINDS ARE CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 30 KNOTS...BUT STAY UNDER
GALE FORCE.  SURFACE HIGH RETURNING FOR FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY CAUSE
THE WINDS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY EASE WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR DTW...SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TUESDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ363-421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 250859
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
359 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED THIS MORNING AT THE EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT
FALL GRADIENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL ANCHORED
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD TODAY...WORKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER IN RESPONSE TO THIS PROCESS...A
PERIOD OF WEAK CONVERGENCE EMERGING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH. OVERLAKE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESS REMAINS LIMITED...
WITH CONVECTIVE DEPTH CAPPED BELOW 4000 FT AND 0-1 KM THETA-E LAPSE
RATES BELOW 6 C/KM.  THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...LEAVING A MOIST LAYER SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  GREATER PROSPECTS WILL EXIST TOWARD THE NORTH...A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION TO RECEIVE BOTH THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND CVA
TIED TO THE PASSING WAVE.  A TIGHTER SOUTH TO NORTH POP GRADIENT
WILL EXIST ACCORDINGLY...ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL RANGING FROM A
DUSTING TO LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH /TRI-CITIES TO I-69 CORRIDOR/.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER LITTLE OFF THE MORNING LOW...HIGHS
ARRIVING IN THE LOWER 30S.

WEAK WARMING BEHIND THE EXITING THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THE UPSTREAM LAKE PROCESSES.  WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME
TIME. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME DEGREE OF SCATTERING OF THE REMNANT
STRATUS CANOPY TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL REDUCTION TO THE WIND FIELD.
THIS WILL PRESENT A DESCENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP...LOWS
MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE 20 DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDEST LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER...AS WE ARE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST (IOWA/MISSOURI) AND THE EAST COAST STORM
SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM IS ADAMANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER
THE 3000-4000 FOOT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WITH AN INVERSION THIS LOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
CLOUDS HOLDING AS BOUNDARY LAYER EXPANDS DURING THE DAY. WILL CALL
FOR BORDERLINE MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST...AS 00Z EURO IS DRIER
AT 925 MB LEVEL. EITHER WAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO BE
AROUND -5 C...MAX TEMPS CLIMBING IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S SEEMS
REASONABLE...PER LATEST GUIDANCE.

FOR THURSDAY...BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH JUST A WEAK
EXTENSION COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THERMAL PROFILES
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...AND MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THUS LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE INROADS THIS FAR EAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS STRONG UPPER WAVE/PV ANOMALY/JET STREAK WORKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/EXTREME SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING FRIDAY...PROVING
WHAT LOOKS TO BE GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP...WITH JUST OVER 3 G/KG OF
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB TO WORK WITH. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER WAVE TO CHANGE (MUCH LIKE THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM)...AND THUS JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST GALES WINDS ARE CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO FOLLOW
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 30 KNOTS...BUT STAY UNDER
GALE FORCE.  SURFACE HIGH RETURNING FOR FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY CAUSE
THE WINDS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY EASE WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR DTW...SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TUESDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ363-421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 250453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY EASE WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR DTW...SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TUESDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

WIND EVENT CONTINUES OVER SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL WIND SURGE
ON THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO/OHIO BORDER REGION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK POP OF 50 KT GUSTS TIED TO STEEP
INITIAL ISENTROPIC POST-FRONTAL DOWNGLIDE. BUBBLE OF SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 7-8 MB/3HR WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS
HOUR ALONG WITH CONTINUED AGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE GUSTS OF 40-50 KT TO
CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FEEL THAT 50 KT
GUSTS...WHILE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...WILL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO NO CHANGES TO ADVISORY/WARNING ARE
PLANNED AT THIS POINT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINED...WITH 30 KT GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TROWAL AREA/DEFORMATION AXIS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A RATHER QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM ABOUT 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
CWA. BY THAT TIME THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH. IT IS A CLOSE CALL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THE TIME
CHANGEOVER HAPPENS. WHAT SNOW DOES FALL WILL LIKELY TAKE A
FEW HOURS TO ACCUMULATE GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND
SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH JUST AROUND A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES.
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL WINDS WITH TIME SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO EXPAND BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
I-69 CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET FROM THEIR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 EARLIER TODAY...ON
THEIR WAY TO LOWS AROUND 30 BY 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY HELPING TO STALL THE EXIT OF THE SFC TROUGH LAID OUT
BY MONDAYS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD AIR WILL BE FILL IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A THERMAL TROUGH AROUND -11C
AT 850MB AND -6C AT 925MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL MI FROM THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN UP TO 700MB. IN
ADDITION...THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK UP A FEW LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MI...BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH SE
MI AS THE FORCING IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. WITH THE ADDITIONAL BROAD
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND A THERMAL PROFILE WORTHY OF AT
LEAST A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT GENERATION OFF LAKE MI...WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...TAPERING OFF
TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING...DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
THIN OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDING OVERHEAD. THE BROAD VIEW SHOWS SEVERAL
FEATURES THAT WE MAY DODGE WITH A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER TRACKING ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND RESIDUAL TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL DRY OUT
THE COLUMN ABOVE 900MB...BRING LIGHT WINDS...AND TRY TO ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PEAKS OF SUN WILL DO
LITTLE TO THE THERMAL FIELD RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
30S.

THANKSGIVING WILL START WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE AS A
500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. A LOBE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HELP KICK UP A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW RESPONSE. FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN GAME FOR BANDING TO SETUP. HAVE A BROAD BRUSH
HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS WE APPROACH
THURSDAY WILL BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND STEERING FLOW A BIT BETTER. AS OF NOW, BETTER ACCUMS SHOULD STAY
NW OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS /SAVE SATURDAY/ WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON ANY PARTICULAR SNOW CHANCE.

MARINE...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
IS NOW ENTERING WESTERN QUEBEC. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ENTERING THE
REGION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST MARINE ZONES ARE
EXPERIENCING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
ERIE WHICH HAS STORM FORCE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON...AS TROUGHING WILL
LINGER EVEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT
HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THE EVENT IS UNDERWAY AND THE
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. LOW WATER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE ERIE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP WATER LEVELS SEVERAL FEET BELOW
DATUM. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW BAY...THE FORECASTED
WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING
OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON STILL HOLDING ON TO GALES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362-421-422-441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 250453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY EASE WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

FOR DTW...SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TUESDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

WIND EVENT CONTINUES OVER SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL WIND SURGE
ON THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO/OHIO BORDER REGION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK POP OF 50 KT GUSTS TIED TO STEEP
INITIAL ISENTROPIC POST-FRONTAL DOWNGLIDE. BUBBLE OF SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 7-8 MB/3HR WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS
HOUR ALONG WITH CONTINUED AGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE GUSTS OF 40-50 KT TO
CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FEEL THAT 50 KT
GUSTS...WHILE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...WILL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO NO CHANGES TO ADVISORY/WARNING ARE
PLANNED AT THIS POINT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINED...WITH 30 KT GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TROWAL AREA/DEFORMATION AXIS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A RATHER QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM ABOUT 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
CWA. BY THAT TIME THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH. IT IS A CLOSE CALL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THE TIME
CHANGEOVER HAPPENS. WHAT SNOW DOES FALL WILL LIKELY TAKE A
FEW HOURS TO ACCUMULATE GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND
SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH JUST AROUND A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES.
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL WINDS WITH TIME SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO EXPAND BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
I-69 CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET FROM THEIR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 EARLIER TODAY...ON
THEIR WAY TO LOWS AROUND 30 BY 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY HELPING TO STALL THE EXIT OF THE SFC TROUGH LAID OUT
BY MONDAYS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD AIR WILL BE FILL IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A THERMAL TROUGH AROUND -11C
AT 850MB AND -6C AT 925MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL MI FROM THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN UP TO 700MB. IN
ADDITION...THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK UP A FEW LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MI...BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH SE
MI AS THE FORCING IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. WITH THE ADDITIONAL BROAD
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND A THERMAL PROFILE WORTHY OF AT
LEAST A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT GENERATION OFF LAKE MI...WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...TAPERING OFF
TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING...DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
THIN OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDING OVERHEAD. THE BROAD VIEW SHOWS SEVERAL
FEATURES THAT WE MAY DODGE WITH A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER TRACKING ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND RESIDUAL TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL DRY OUT
THE COLUMN ABOVE 900MB...BRING LIGHT WINDS...AND TRY TO ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PEAKS OF SUN WILL DO
LITTLE TO THE THERMAL FIELD RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
30S.

THANKSGIVING WILL START WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE AS A
500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. A LOBE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HELP KICK UP A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW RESPONSE. FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN GAME FOR BANDING TO SETUP. HAVE A BROAD BRUSH
HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS WE APPROACH
THURSDAY WILL BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND STEERING FLOW A BIT BETTER. AS OF NOW, BETTER ACCUMS SHOULD STAY
NW OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS /SAVE SATURDAY/ WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON ANY PARTICULAR SNOW CHANCE.

MARINE...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
IS NOW ENTERING WESTERN QUEBEC. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ENTERING THE
REGION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST MARINE ZONES ARE
EXPERIENCING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
ERIE WHICH HAS STORM FORCE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON...AS TROUGHING WILL
LINGER EVEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT
HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THE EVENT IS UNDERWAY AND THE
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. LOW WATER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE ERIE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP WATER LEVELS SEVERAL FEET BELOW
DATUM. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW BAY...THE FORECASTED
WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING
OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON STILL HOLDING ON TO GALES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362-421-422-441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 242318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF STRONG
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL EASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CEILINGS MAY TEND TO LIFT INTO A LOWER VFR DURING THIS TIME AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REFOCUSES TO THE NORTH.

FOR DTW...SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 354 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

WIND EVENT CONTINUES OVER SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL WIND SURGE
ON THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO/OHIO BORDER REGION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK POP OF 50 KT GUSTS TIED TO STEEP
INITIAL ISENTROPIC POST-FRONTAL DOWNGLIDE. BUBBLE OF SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 7-8 MB/3HR WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS
HOUR ALONG WITH CONTINUED AGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE GUSTS OF 40-50 KT TO
CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FEEL THAT 50 KT
GUSTS...WHILE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...WILL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO NO CHANGES TO ADVISORY/WARNING ARE
PLANNED AT THIS POINT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINED...WITH 30 KT GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TROWAL AREA/DEFORMATION AXIS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A RATHER QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM ABOUT 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
CWA. BY THAT TIME THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH. IT IS A CLOSE CALL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THE TIME
CHANGEOVER HAPPENS. WHAT SNOW DOES FALL WILL LIKELY TAKE A
FEW HOURS TO ACCUMULATE GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND
SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH JUST AROUND A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES.
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL WINDS WITH TIME SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO EXPAND BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
I-69 CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET FROM THEIR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 EARLIER TODAY...ON
THEIR WAY TO LOWS AROUND 30 BY 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY HELPING TO STALL THE EXIT OF THE SFC TROUGH LAID OUT
BY MONDAYS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD AIR WILL BE FILL IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A THERMAL TROUGH AROUND -11C
AT 850MB AND -6C AT 925MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL MI FROM THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN UP TO 700MB. IN
ADDITION...THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK UP A FEW LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MI...BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH SE
MI AS THE FORCING IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. WITH THE ADDITIONAL BROAD
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND A THERMAL PROFILE WORTHY OF AT
LEAST A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT GENERATION OFF LAKE MI...WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...TAPERING OFF
TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING...DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
THIN OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDING OVERHEAD. THE BROAD VIEW SHOWS SEVERAL
FEATURES THAT WE MAY DODGE WITH A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER TRACKING ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND RESIDUAL TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL DRY OUT
THE COLUMN ABOVE 900MB...BRING LIGHT WINDS...AND TRY TO ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PEAKS OF SUN WILL DO
LITTLE TO THE THERMAL FIELD RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
30S.

THANKSGIVING WILL START WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE AS A
500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. A LOBE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HELP KICK UP A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW RESPONSE. FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN GAME FOR BANDING TO SETUP. HAVE A BROAD BRUSH
HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS WE APPROACH
THURSDAY WILL BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND STEERING FLOW A BIT BETTER. AS OF NOW, BETTER ACCUMS SHOULD STAY
NW OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS /SAVE SATURDAY/ WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON ANY PARTICULAR SNOW CHANCE.

MARINE...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
IS NOW ENTERING WESTERN QUEBEC. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ENTERING THE
REGION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST MARINE ZONES ARE
EXPERIENCING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
ERIE WHICH HAS STORM FORCE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON...AS TROUGHING WILL
LINGER EVEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT
HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THE EVENT IS UNDERWAY AND THE
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. LOW WATER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE ERIE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP WATER LEVELS SEVERAL FEET BELOW
DATUM. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW BAY...THE FORECASTED
WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING
OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON STILL HOLDING ON TO GALES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-
     083.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362-441>443.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-
     422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 242054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

WIND EVENT CONTINUES OVER SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL WIND SURGE
ON THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO/OHIO BORDER REGION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK POP OF 50 KT GUSTS TIED TO STEEP
INITIAL ISENTROPIC POST-FRONTAL DOWNGLIDE. BUBBLE OF SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 7-8 MB/3HR WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS
HOUR ALONG WITH CONTINUED AGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE GUSTS OF 40-50 KT TO
CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FEEL THAT 50 KT
GUSTS...WHILE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...WILL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO NO CHANGES TO ADVISORY/WARNING ARE
PLANNED AT THIS POINT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINED...WITH 30 KT GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TROWAL AREA/DEFORMATION AXIS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A RATHER QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM ABOUT 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
CWA. BY THAT TIME THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH. IT IS A CLOSE CALL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THE TIME
CHANGEOVER HAPPENS. WHAT SNOW DOES FALL WILL LIKELY TAKE A
FEW HOURS TO ACCUMULATE GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND
SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH JUST AROUND A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES.
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL WINDS WITH TIME SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO EXPAND BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
I-69 CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET FROM THEIR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 EARLIER TODAY...ON
THEIR WAY TO LOWS AROUND 30 BY 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY HELPING TO STALL THE EXIT OF THE SFC TROUGH LAID OUT
BY MONDAYS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD AIR WILL BE FILL IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A THERMAL TROUGH AROUND -11C
AT 850MB AND -6C AT 925MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL MI FROM THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN UP TO 700MB. IN
ADDITION...THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK UP A FEW LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MI...BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH SE
MI AS THE FORCING IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. WITH THE ADDITIONAL BROAD
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND A THERMAL PROFILE WORTHY OF AT
LEAST A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT GENERATION OFF LAKE MI...WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...TAPERING OFF
TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING...DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
THIN OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDING OVERHEAD. THE BROAD VIEW SHOWS SEVERAL
FEATURES THAT WE MAY DODGE WITH A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER TRACKING ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND RESIDUAL TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL DRY OUT
THE COLUMN ABOVE 900MB...BRING LIGHT WINDS...AND TRY TO ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PEAKS OF SUN WILL DO
LITTLE TO THE THERMAL FIELD RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
30S.

THANKSGIVING WILL START WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE AS A
500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. A LOBE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HELP KICK UP A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW RESPONSE. FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN GAME FOR BANDING TO SETUP. HAVE A BROAD BRUSH
HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS WE APPROACH
THURSDAY WILL BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND STEERING FLOW A BIT BETTER. AS OF NOW, BETTER ACCUMS SHOULD STAY
NW OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS /SAVE SATURDAY/ WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON ANY PARTICULAR SNOW CHANCE.

&&

.MARINE...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
IS NOW ENTERING WESTERN QUEBEC. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ENTERING THE
REGION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST MARINE ZONES ARE
EXPERIENCING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
ERIE WHICH HAS STORM FORCE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON...AS TROUGHING WILL
LINGER EVEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT
HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THE EVENT IS UNDERWAY AND THE
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. LOW WATER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE ERIE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP WATER LEVELS SEVERAL FEET BELOW
DATUM. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW BAY...THE FORECASTED
WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING
OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON STILL HOLDING ON TO GALES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1242 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS WORKING ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA AT
THIS HOUR...WITH A QUICK INCREASE IN GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KT LIKELY IN
THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP IN A NORTHWARD
FASHION...SPREADING INTO MBS LATEST. EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AFTER THIS SURGE...HIGHEST FROM PTK SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO MVFR BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD NOW OVER SW LOWER MI WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO MBS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR CIGS FOR A TIME.
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW FOR MBS...BUT BY THAT TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF SN FOR MBS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY.

FOR DTW...WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT...PERHAPS BRIEFLY 50 KT...WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION OF 230 DEGREES WILL MITIGATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS ON THE
NNW/SSE RUNWAYS. ANY BRIEF LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED IN BY MVFR STRATUS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
AROUND 00Z...BUT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KT INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
  WIND DIRECTION OF 230 DEGREES WILL MITIGATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS
  ON NNW/SSE RUNWAYS

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-
     083.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 242054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
354 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM... THROUGH TONIGHT

WIND EVENT CONTINUES OVER SE MI THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL WIND SURGE
ON THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO/OHIO BORDER REGION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK POP OF 50 KT GUSTS TIED TO STEEP
INITIAL ISENTROPIC POST-FRONTAL DOWNGLIDE. BUBBLE OF SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 7-8 MB/3HR WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS
HOUR ALONG WITH CONTINUED AGRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAINTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE GUSTS OF 40-50 KT TO
CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FEEL THAT 50 KT
GUSTS...WHILE STILL VERY POSSIBLE...WILL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO NO CHANGES TO ADVISORY/WARNING ARE
PLANNED AT THIS POINT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINED...WITH 30 KT GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TROWAL AREA/DEFORMATION AXIS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A RATHER QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM ABOUT 00Z-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
CWA. BY THAT TIME THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH. IT IS A CLOSE CALL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THE TIME
CHANGEOVER HAPPENS. WHAT SNOW DOES FALL WILL LIKELY TAKE A
FEW HOURS TO ACCUMULATE GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND
SURFACE TEMPS. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH JUST AROUND A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES.
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL WINDS WITH TIME SHOULD ALLOW
SOME LIGHT LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS TO EXPAND BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
I-69 CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET FROM THEIR HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 EARLIER TODAY...ON
THEIR WAY TO LOWS AROUND 30 BY 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY HELPING TO STALL THE EXIT OF THE SFC TROUGH LAID OUT
BY MONDAYS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COLD AIR WILL BE FILL IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A THERMAL TROUGH AROUND -11C
AT 850MB AND -6C AT 925MB BY 12Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL MI FROM THE DEPARTING LOW...WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN UP TO 700MB. IN
ADDITION...THE THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK UP A FEW LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MI...BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH SE
MI AS THE FORCING IS ON THE WEAK SIDE. WITH THE ADDITIONAL BROAD
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND A THERMAL PROFILE WORTHY OF AT
LEAST A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT GENERATION OFF LAKE MI...WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY...TAPERING OFF
TO THE SOUTH. HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
MORNING...DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
THIN OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDING OVERHEAD. THE BROAD VIEW SHOWS SEVERAL
FEATURES THAT WE MAY DODGE WITH A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER TRACKING ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST...A WEAK CLIPPER TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND RESIDUAL TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL DRY OUT
THE COLUMN ABOVE 900MB...BRING LIGHT WINDS...AND TRY TO ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PEAKS OF SUN WILL DO
LITTLE TO THE THERMAL FIELD RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
30S.

THANKSGIVING WILL START WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE AS A
500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. A LOBE OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HELP KICK UP A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW RESPONSE. FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN GAME FOR BANDING TO SETUP. HAVE A BROAD BRUSH
HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS WE APPROACH
THURSDAY WILL BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND STEERING FLOW A BIT BETTER. AS OF NOW, BETTER ACCUMS SHOULD STAY
NW OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS /SAVE SATURDAY/ WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON ANY PARTICULAR SNOW CHANCE.

&&

.MARINE...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
IS NOW ENTERING WESTERN QUEBEC. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ENTERING THE
REGION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOST MARINE ZONES ARE
EXPERIENCING HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE
ERIE WHICH HAS STORM FORCE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON...AS TROUGHING WILL
LINGER EVEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENT
HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AS THE EVENT IS UNDERWAY AND THE
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. LOW WATER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE ERIE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP WATER LEVELS SEVERAL FEET BELOW
DATUM. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW BAY...THE FORECASTED
WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING
OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON STILL HOLDING ON TO GALES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1242 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS WORKING ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA AT
THIS HOUR...WITH A QUICK INCREASE IN GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KT LIKELY IN
THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP IN A NORTHWARD
FASHION...SPREADING INTO MBS LATEST. EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AFTER THIS SURGE...HIGHEST FROM PTK SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO MVFR BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD NOW OVER SW LOWER MI WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO MBS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR CIGS FOR A TIME.
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW FOR MBS...BUT BY THAT TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF SN FOR MBS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY.

FOR DTW...WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT...PERHAPS BRIEFLY 50 KT...WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION OF 230 DEGREES WILL MITIGATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS ON THE
NNW/SSE RUNWAYS. ANY BRIEF LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED IN BY MVFR STRATUS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
AROUND 00Z...BUT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KT INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
  WIND DIRECTION OF 230 DEGREES WILL MITIGATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS
  ON NNW/SSE RUNWAYS

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-
     083.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DT
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241742
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1242 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS WORKING ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA AT
THIS HOUR...WITH A QUICK INCREASE IN GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KT LIKELY IN
THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP IN A NORTHWARD
FASHION...SPREADING INTO MBS LATEST. EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AFTER THIS SURGE...HIGHEST FROM PTK SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO MVFR BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD NOW OVER SW LOWER MI WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO MBS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR CIGS FOR A TIME.
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW FOR MBS...BUT BY THAT TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF SN FOR MBS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY.

FOR DTW...WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT...PERHAPS BRIEFLY 50 KT...WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION OF 230 DEGREES WILL MITIGATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS ON THE
NNW/SSE RUNWAYS. ANY BRIEF LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED IN BY MVFR STRATUS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
AROUND 00Z...BUT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KT INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
  WIND DIRECTION OF 230 DEGREES WILL MITIGATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS
  ON NNW/SSE RUNWAYS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1140 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE/SFC OBS. VIS SAT INDICATES CLEAR SLOT
PROGRESSING TO NEAR THE OH/MI BORDER ATTM...CONCIDENT WITH A
SURGE IN WINDS. THIS COINCIDES WITH 12NAM SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
DESCENT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION 16-18Z...ITS LEADING EDGE
AFFECTING AREAS FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTHWARD DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A BRIEF UPTICK IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE /E.G. KFWA WIND GUST TO 50 KT/ FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL
OF PERIODIC GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ELSEWHERE...A MORE GRADUAL RAMP- UP OF WINDS EXPECTED...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET
I-69 SOUTH. UPDATE TO POPS TO REFLECT A SHARPER DRYING TREND POST-
FRONT OVER THE SOUTH...WITH THE SAGINAW VALLEY/NORTHERN THUMB
CATCHING THE DEFORMATION FORCING THIS AFTERNOON NOW EVIDENT OVER
SW LOWER. CATEGORICAL POPS THERE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
INBOUND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE LOCALLY TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FILAMENTS WORKING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALREADY
PROMPTING A STEADY DEEPENING OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR HOLLAND.  THIS LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 MILLIBARS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY.  EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  GIVEN THAT READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...NOW LOOKING AT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
MAY PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
TIME...STILL WORTHY OF A HIGH END POP.

A ROBUST MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN....STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT SOLIDIFIED BENEATH
STRONG EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND A CONTRACTING/CONSOLIDATING MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  A SOLID PERIOD OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC DESCENT
WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 20Z-00Z.  MIXING POTENTIAL TOUGHER TO
GAUGE...A LOWER CEILING AND PROSPECTS FOR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS PERHAPS MUTING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /A RUMBLE OF THUNDER?/ TO EMERGE ALONG THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE...WHICH WOULD IN ITSELF PRESENT A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELD. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
SETUP POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE
EXISTING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB/
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THIS WIND
FIELD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
GREATEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL /OVER 50 MPH/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THIS CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
BETTER ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND GREATER MIXING.  NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO TIP THE SCALES OR LEND CONFIDENCE FOR A WARNING LEVEL RISK AT
THIS STAGE...BUT A SOLID POP OF WIND TIED IMMEDIATELY TO THE FROPA
AND/OR A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD GENERATE A FEW HIGH END
ADVISORY GUSTS.

ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...A GOOD
15C 24 HOUR DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 850-925 MB LAYER BY
DAYBREAK.  THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
TRAILING DEFORMATION NOW APPEARS TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT...ONLY THE TRI-CITIES AT THE CUSP OF A FADING FORCING FIELD
EXPECTED TO WASH BACK IN LATE TONIGHT.  RATHER MODEST LOOKING LAKE
RESPONSE TONIGHT SUGGESTS A LIMITED IMPACT FOR OUR DOWNSTREAM
POSITION...AGAIN THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
DIRECTING THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY MID MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXISTING STRATUS
DECK...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C...WHICH IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...THERE IS MOISTURE UP AT
700 MB...AS COLD POOL OF -14 TO -15 C WORKS THROUGH...AND WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEEP BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
925 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5 C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE MID 30S.

PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EURO/NAM STILL INDICATING
HIGHER RH (80+ PERCENT) AT 925 MB (RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION)...AND WILL CALL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT THIS POINT...AND
CONSERVATIVE MINS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH BETTER CLEARING AND
FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR TEENS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME TYPE OF SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE/PV CENTER ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH (MISSOURI/ALONG OR SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER)...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP DRY (PARTIAL SUNSHINE) AS EAST COAST STORM
IS TOO FAR TO THE EAST AS WELL. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW (850 MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS)...SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME (SCATTERED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.

MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW
BAY...THE FORECASTED WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME MARGINAL LINGER GALES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-
     083.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ055-060>063-
     068>070.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053-054.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DT
UPDATE.......DT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241742
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1242 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS WORKING ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO AREA AT
THIS HOUR...WITH A QUICK INCREASE IN GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KT LIKELY IN
THE NEAR TERM. WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP IN A NORTHWARD
FASHION...SPREADING INTO MBS LATEST. EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AFTER THIS SURGE...HIGHEST FROM PTK SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO MVFR BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. PRECIP SHIELD NOW OVER SW LOWER MI WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO MBS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING IFR CIGS FOR A TIME.
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW FOR MBS...BUT BY THAT TIME THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF SN FOR MBS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY.

FOR DTW...WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT...PERHAPS BRIEFLY 50 KT...WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION OF 230 DEGREES WILL MITIGATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS ON THE
NNW/SSE RUNWAYS. ANY BRIEF LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED IN BY MVFR STRATUS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
AROUND 00Z...BUT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KT INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
  WIND DIRECTION OF 230 DEGREES WILL MITIGATE CROSSWIND CONCERNS
  ON NNW/SSE RUNWAYS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1140 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE/SFC OBS. VIS SAT INDICATES CLEAR SLOT
PROGRESSING TO NEAR THE OH/MI BORDER ATTM...CONCIDENT WITH A
SURGE IN WINDS. THIS COINCIDES WITH 12NAM SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
DESCENT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION 16-18Z...ITS LEADING EDGE
AFFECTING AREAS FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTHWARD DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A BRIEF UPTICK IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE /E.G. KFWA WIND GUST TO 50 KT/ FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL
OF PERIODIC GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ELSEWHERE...A MORE GRADUAL RAMP- UP OF WINDS EXPECTED...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET
I-69 SOUTH. UPDATE TO POPS TO REFLECT A SHARPER DRYING TREND POST-
FRONT OVER THE SOUTH...WITH THE SAGINAW VALLEY/NORTHERN THUMB
CATCHING THE DEFORMATION FORCING THIS AFTERNOON NOW EVIDENT OVER
SW LOWER. CATEGORICAL POPS THERE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
INBOUND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE LOCALLY TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FILAMENTS WORKING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALREADY
PROMPTING A STEADY DEEPENING OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR HOLLAND.  THIS LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 MILLIBARS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY.  EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  GIVEN THAT READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...NOW LOOKING AT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
MAY PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
TIME...STILL WORTHY OF A HIGH END POP.

A ROBUST MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN....STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT SOLIDIFIED BENEATH
STRONG EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND A CONTRACTING/CONSOLIDATING MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  A SOLID PERIOD OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC DESCENT
WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 20Z-00Z.  MIXING POTENTIAL TOUGHER TO
GAUGE...A LOWER CEILING AND PROSPECTS FOR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS PERHAPS MUTING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /A RUMBLE OF THUNDER?/ TO EMERGE ALONG THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE...WHICH WOULD IN ITSELF PRESENT A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELD. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
SETUP POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE
EXISTING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB/
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THIS WIND
FIELD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
GREATEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL /OVER 50 MPH/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THIS CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
BETTER ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND GREATER MIXING.  NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO TIP THE SCALES OR LEND CONFIDENCE FOR A WARNING LEVEL RISK AT
THIS STAGE...BUT A SOLID POP OF WIND TIED IMMEDIATELY TO THE FROPA
AND/OR A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD GENERATE A FEW HIGH END
ADVISORY GUSTS.

ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...A GOOD
15C 24 HOUR DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 850-925 MB LAYER BY
DAYBREAK.  THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
TRAILING DEFORMATION NOW APPEARS TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT...ONLY THE TRI-CITIES AT THE CUSP OF A FADING FORCING FIELD
EXPECTED TO WASH BACK IN LATE TONIGHT.  RATHER MODEST LOOKING LAKE
RESPONSE TONIGHT SUGGESTS A LIMITED IMPACT FOR OUR DOWNSTREAM
POSITION...AGAIN THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
DIRECTING THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY MID MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXISTING STRATUS
DECK...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C...WHICH IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...THERE IS MOISTURE UP AT
700 MB...AS COLD POOL OF -14 TO -15 C WORKS THROUGH...AND WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEEP BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
925 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5 C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE MID 30S.

PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EURO/NAM STILL INDICATING
HIGHER RH (80+ PERCENT) AT 925 MB (RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION)...AND WILL CALL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT THIS POINT...AND
CONSERVATIVE MINS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH BETTER CLEARING AND
FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR TEENS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME TYPE OF SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE/PV CENTER ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH (MISSOURI/ALONG OR SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER)...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP DRY (PARTIAL SUNSHINE) AS EAST COAST STORM
IS TOO FAR TO THE EAST AS WELL. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW (850 MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS)...SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME (SCATTERED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.

MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW
BAY...THE FORECASTED WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME MARGINAL LINGER GALES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ075-076-082-
     083.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ055-060>063-
     068>070.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053-054.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DT
UPDATE.......DT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 241640
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1140 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE/SFC OBS. VIS SAT INDICATES CLEAR SLOT
PROGRESSING TO NEAR THE OH/MI BORDER ATTM...CONCIDENT WITH A
SURGE IN WINDS. THIS COINCIDES WITH 12NAM SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
DESCENT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION 16-18Z...ITS LEADING EDGE
AFFECTING AREAS FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTHWARD DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A BRIEF UPTICK IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE /E.G. KFWA WIND GUST TO 50 KT/ FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL
OF PERIODIC GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ELSEWHERE...A MORE GRADUAL RAMP- UP OF WINDS EXPECTED...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET
I-69 SOUTH. UPDATE TO POPS TO REFLECT A SHARPER DRYING TREND POST-
FRONT OVER THE SOUTH...WITH THE SAGINAW VALLEY/NORTHERN THUMB
CATCHING THE DEFORMATION FORCING THIS AFTERNOON NOW EVIDENT OVER
SW LOWER. CATEGORICAL POPS THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TODAY SOUTHEAST OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TURNS GUSTY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS WORKING INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE
BY LATE MORNING.  A MORE SIZABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER 18Z.  GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS ACROSS
THE DETROIT CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY IF A THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARRIVES COICIDENT WITH THE FRONT.  WINDS WILL EASE WITH TIME
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  CEILINGS MAY TEND TO LIFT INTO A LOWER
VFR DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE REFOCUSES TO THE NORTH.

FOR DTW...DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES.  SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ WILL PEAK 19Z
TO 00Z ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH
END GUSTS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS
  EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
INBOUND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE LOCALLY TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FILAMENTS WORKING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALREADY
PROMPTING A STEADY DEEPENING OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR HOLLAND.  THIS LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 MILLIBARS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY.  EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  GIVEN THAT READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...NOW LOOKING AT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
MAY PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
TIME...STILL WORTHY OF A HIGH END POP.

A ROBUST MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN....STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT SOLIDIFIED BENEATH
STRONG EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND A CONTRACTING/CONSOLIDATING MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  A SOLID PERIOD OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC DESCENT
WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 20Z-00Z.  MIXING POTENTIAL TOUGHER TO
GAUGE...A LOWER CEILING AND PROSPECTS FOR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS PERHAPS MUTING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /A RUMBLE OF THUNDER?/ TO EMERGE ALONG THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE...WHICH WOULD IN ITSELF PRESENT A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELD. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
SETUP POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE
EXISTING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB/
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THIS WIND
FIELD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
GREATEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL /OVER 50 MPH/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THIS CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
BETTER ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND GREATER MIXING.  NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO TIP THE SCALES OR LEND CONFIDENCE FOR A WARNING LEVEL RISK AT
THIS STAGE...BUT A SOLID POP OF WIND TIED IMMEDIATELY TO THE FROPA
AND/OR A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD GENERATE A FEW HIGH END
ADVISORY GUSTS.

ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...A GOOD
15C 24 HOUR DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 850-925 MB LAYER BY
DAYBREAK.  THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
TRAILING DEFORMATION NOW APPEARS TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT...ONLY THE TRI-CITIES AT THE CUSP OF A FADING FORCING FIELD
EXPECTED TO WASH BACK IN LATE TONIGHT.  RATHER MODEST LOOKING LAKE
RESPONSE TONIGHT SUGGESTS A LIMITED IMPACT FOR OUR DOWNSTREAM
POSITION...AGAIN THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
DIRECTING THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY MID MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXISTING STRATUS
DECK...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C...WHICH IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...THERE IS MOISTURE UP AT
700 MB...AS COLD POOL OF -14 TO -15 C WORKS THROUGH...AND WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEEP BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
925 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5 C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE MID 30S.

PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EURO/NAM STILL INDICATING
HIGHER RH (80+ PERCENT) AT 925 MB (RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION)...AND WILL CALL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT THIS POINT...AND
CONSERVATIVE MINS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH BETTER CLEARING AND
FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR TEENS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME TYPE OF SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE/PV CENTER ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH (MISSOURI/ALONG OR SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER)...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP DRY (PARTIAL SUNSHINE) AS EAST COAST STORM
IS TOO FAR TO THE EAST AS WELL. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW (850 MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS)...SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME (SCATTERED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.

MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW
BAY...THE FORECASTED WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME MARGINAL LINGER GALES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ055-060>063-
     068>070-075-076-082-083.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ047>049-053-054.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......DT
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 241640
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1140 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE/SFC OBS. VIS SAT INDICATES CLEAR SLOT
PROGRESSING TO NEAR THE OH/MI BORDER ATTM...CONCIDENT WITH A
SURGE IN WINDS. THIS COINCIDES WITH 12NAM SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
DESCENT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION 16-18Z...ITS LEADING EDGE
AFFECTING AREAS FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTHWARD DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A BRIEF UPTICK IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
PASSAGE /E.G. KFWA WIND GUST TO 50 KT/ FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL
OF PERIODIC GUSTS TO WARNING CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS DAYTIME MIXING DEEPENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ELSEWHERE...A MORE GRADUAL RAMP- UP OF WINDS EXPECTED...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET
I-69 SOUTH. UPDATE TO POPS TO REFLECT A SHARPER DRYING TREND POST-
FRONT OVER THE SOUTH...WITH THE SAGINAW VALLEY/NORTHERN THUMB
CATCHING THE DEFORMATION FORCING THIS AFTERNOON NOW EVIDENT OVER
SW LOWER. CATEGORICAL POPS THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TODAY SOUTHEAST OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TURNS GUSTY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS WORKING INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE
BY LATE MORNING.  A MORE SIZABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER 18Z.  GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS ACROSS
THE DETROIT CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY IF A THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARRIVES COICIDENT WITH THE FRONT.  WINDS WILL EASE WITH TIME
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  CEILINGS MAY TEND TO LIFT INTO A LOWER
VFR DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE REFOCUSES TO THE NORTH.

FOR DTW...DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES.  SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ WILL PEAK 19Z
TO 00Z ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH
END GUSTS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS
  EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
INBOUND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE LOCALLY TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FILAMENTS WORKING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALREADY
PROMPTING A STEADY DEEPENING OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR HOLLAND.  THIS LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 MILLIBARS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY.  EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  GIVEN THAT READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...NOW LOOKING AT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
MAY PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
TIME...STILL WORTHY OF A HIGH END POP.

A ROBUST MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN....STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT SOLIDIFIED BENEATH
STRONG EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND A CONTRACTING/CONSOLIDATING MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  A SOLID PERIOD OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC DESCENT
WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 20Z-00Z.  MIXING POTENTIAL TOUGHER TO
GAUGE...A LOWER CEILING AND PROSPECTS FOR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS PERHAPS MUTING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /A RUMBLE OF THUNDER?/ TO EMERGE ALONG THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE...WHICH WOULD IN ITSELF PRESENT A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELD. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
SETUP POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE
EXISTING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB/
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THIS WIND
FIELD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
GREATEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL /OVER 50 MPH/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THIS CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
BETTER ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND GREATER MIXING.  NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO TIP THE SCALES OR LEND CONFIDENCE FOR A WARNING LEVEL RISK AT
THIS STAGE...BUT A SOLID POP OF WIND TIED IMMEDIATELY TO THE FROPA
AND/OR A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD GENERATE A FEW HIGH END
ADVISORY GUSTS.

ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...A GOOD
15C 24 HOUR DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 850-925 MB LAYER BY
DAYBREAK.  THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
TRAILING DEFORMATION NOW APPEARS TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT...ONLY THE TRI-CITIES AT THE CUSP OF A FADING FORCING FIELD
EXPECTED TO WASH BACK IN LATE TONIGHT.  RATHER MODEST LOOKING LAKE
RESPONSE TONIGHT SUGGESTS A LIMITED IMPACT FOR OUR DOWNSTREAM
POSITION...AGAIN THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
DIRECTING THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY MID MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXISTING STRATUS
DECK...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C...WHICH IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...THERE IS MOISTURE UP AT
700 MB...AS COLD POOL OF -14 TO -15 C WORKS THROUGH...AND WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEEP BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
925 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5 C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE MID 30S.

PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EURO/NAM STILL INDICATING
HIGHER RH (80+ PERCENT) AT 925 MB (RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION)...AND WILL CALL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT THIS POINT...AND
CONSERVATIVE MINS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH BETTER CLEARING AND
FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR TEENS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME TYPE OF SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE/PV CENTER ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH (MISSOURI/ALONG OR SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER)...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP DRY (PARTIAL SUNSHINE) AS EAST COAST STORM
IS TOO FAR TO THE EAST AS WELL. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW (850 MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS)...SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME (SCATTERED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.

MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW
BAY...THE FORECASTED WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME MARGINAL LINGER GALES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ055-060>063-
     068>070-075-076-082-083.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ047>049-053-054.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......DT
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241120
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TODAY SOUTHEAST OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TURNS GUSTY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS WORKING INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE
BY LATE MORNING.  A MORE SIZABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER 18Z.  GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS ACROSS
THE DETROIT CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY IF A THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARRIVES COICIDENT WITH THE FRONT.  WINDS WILL EASE WITH TIME
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  CEILINGS MAY TEND TO LIFT INTO A LOWER
VFR DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE REFOCUSES TO THE NORTH.

FOR DTW...DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES.  SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ WILL PEAK 19Z
TO 00Z ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH
END GUSTS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS
  EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
INBOUND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE LOCALLY TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FILAMENTS WORKING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALREADY
PROMPTING A STEADY DEEPENING OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR HOLLAND.  THIS LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 MILLIBARS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY.  EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  GIVEN THAT READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...NOW LOOKING AT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
MAY PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
TIME...STILL WORTHY OF A HIGH END POP.

A ROBUST MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN....STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT SOLIDIFIED BENEATH
STRONG EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND A CONTRACTING/CONSOLIDATING MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  A SOLID PERIOD OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC DESCENT
WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 20Z-00Z.  MIXING POTENTIAL TOUGHER TO
GAUGE...A LOWER CEILING AND PROSPECTS FOR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS PERHAPS MUTING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /A RUMBLE OF THUNDER?/ TO EMERGE ALONG THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE...WHICH WOULD IN ITSELF PRESENT A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELD. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
SETUP POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE
EXISTING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB/
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THIS WIND
FIELD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
GREATEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL /OVER 50 MPH/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THIS CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
BETTER ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND GREATER MIXING.  NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO TIP THE SCALES OR LEND CONFIDENCE FOR A WARNING LEVEL RISK AT
THIS STAGE...BUT A SOLID POP OF WIND TIED IMMEDIATELY TO THE FROPA
AND/OR A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD GENERATE A FEW HIGH END
ADVISORY GUSTS.

ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...A GOOD
15C 24 HOUR DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 850-925 MB LAYER BY
DAYBREAK.  THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
TRAILING DEFORMATION NOW APPEARS TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT...ONLY THE TRI-CITIES AT THE CUSP OF A FADING FORCING FIELD
EXPECTED TO WASH BACK IN LATE TONIGHT.  RATHER MODEST LOOKING LAKE
RESPONSE TONIGHT SUGGESTS A LIMITED IMPACT FOR OUR DOWNSTREAM
POSITION...AGAIN THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
DIRECTING THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY MID MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXISTING STRATUS
DECK...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C...WHICH IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...THERE IS MOISTURE UP AT
700 MB...AS COLD POOL OF -14 TO -15 C WORKS THROUGH...AND WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEEP BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
925 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5 C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE MID 30S.

PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EURO/NAM STILL INDICATING
HIGHER RH (80+ PERCENT) AT 925 MB (RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION)...AND WILL CALL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT THIS POINT...AND
CONSERVATIVE MINS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH BETTER CLEARING AND
FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR TEENS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME TYPE OF SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE/PV CENTER ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH (MISSOURI/ALONG OR SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER)...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP DRY (PARTIAL SUNSHINE) AS EAST COAST STORM
IS TOO FAR TO THE EAST AS WELL. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW (850 MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS)...SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME (SCATTERED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.

MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW
BAY...THE FORECASTED WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME MARGINAL LINGER GALES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241120
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM TODAY SOUTHEAST OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TURNS GUSTY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS WORKING INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE
BY LATE MORNING.  A MORE SIZABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER 18Z.  GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS ACROSS
THE DETROIT CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY IF A THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARRIVES COICIDENT WITH THE FRONT.  WINDS WILL EASE WITH TIME
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  CEILINGS MAY TEND TO LIFT INTO A LOWER
VFR DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE REFOCUSES TO THE NORTH.

FOR DTW...DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS
MIXING INCREASES.  SOUTHWEST WINDS /230-250 DEGREES/ WILL PEAK 19Z
TO 00Z ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH
END GUSTS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  TONIGHT

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS
  EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CROSSWINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST /230 TO
  250 DEGREES/ MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
INBOUND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE LOCALLY TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FILAMENTS WORKING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALREADY
PROMPTING A STEADY DEEPENING OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR HOLLAND.  THIS LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 MILLIBARS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY.  EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  GIVEN THAT READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...NOW LOOKING AT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
MAY PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
TIME...STILL WORTHY OF A HIGH END POP.

A ROBUST MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN....STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT SOLIDIFIED BENEATH
STRONG EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND A CONTRACTING/CONSOLIDATING MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  A SOLID PERIOD OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC DESCENT
WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 20Z-00Z.  MIXING POTENTIAL TOUGHER TO
GAUGE...A LOWER CEILING AND PROSPECTS FOR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS PERHAPS MUTING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /A RUMBLE OF THUNDER?/ TO EMERGE ALONG THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE...WHICH WOULD IN ITSELF PRESENT A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELD. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
SETUP POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE
EXISTING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB/
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THIS WIND
FIELD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
GREATEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL /OVER 50 MPH/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THIS CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
BETTER ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND GREATER MIXING.  NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO TIP THE SCALES OR LEND CONFIDENCE FOR A WARNING LEVEL RISK AT
THIS STAGE...BUT A SOLID POP OF WIND TIED IMMEDIATELY TO THE FROPA
AND/OR A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD GENERATE A FEW HIGH END
ADVISORY GUSTS.

ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...A GOOD
15C 24 HOUR DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 850-925 MB LAYER BY
DAYBREAK.  THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
TRAILING DEFORMATION NOW APPEARS TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT...ONLY THE TRI-CITIES AT THE CUSP OF A FADING FORCING FIELD
EXPECTED TO WASH BACK IN LATE TONIGHT.  RATHER MODEST LOOKING LAKE
RESPONSE TONIGHT SUGGESTS A LIMITED IMPACT FOR OUR DOWNSTREAM
POSITION...AGAIN THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
DIRECTING THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY MID MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXISTING STRATUS
DECK...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C...WHICH IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...THERE IS MOISTURE UP AT
700 MB...AS COLD POOL OF -14 TO -15 C WORKS THROUGH...AND WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEEP BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
925 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5 C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE MID 30S.

PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EURO/NAM STILL INDICATING
HIGHER RH (80+ PERCENT) AT 925 MB (RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION)...AND WILL CALL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT THIS POINT...AND
CONSERVATIVE MINS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH BETTER CLEARING AND
FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR TEENS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME TYPE OF SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE/PV CENTER ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH (MISSOURI/ALONG OR SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER)...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP DRY (PARTIAL SUNSHINE) AS EAST COAST STORM
IS TOO FAR TO THE EAST AS WELL. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW (850 MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS)...SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME (SCATTERED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.

MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW
BAY...THE FORECASTED WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME MARGINAL LINGER GALES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 240842
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
INBOUND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE LOCALLY TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FILAMENTS WORKING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALREADY
PROMPTING A STEADY DEEPENING OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR HOLLAND.  THIS LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 MILLIBARS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY.  EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  GIVEN THAT READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...NOW LOOKING AT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
MAY PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
TIME...STILL WORTHY OF A HIGH END POP.

A ROBUST MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN....STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT SOLIDIFIED BENEATH
STRONG EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND A CONTRACTING/CONSOLIDATING MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  A SOLID PERIOD OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC DESCENT
WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 20Z-00Z.  MIXING POTENTIAL TOUGHER TO
GAUGE...A LOWER CEILING AND PROSPECTS FOR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS PERHAPS MUTING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /A RUMBLE OF THUNDER?/ TO EMERGE ALONG THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE...WHICH WOULD IN ITSELF PRESENT A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELD. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
SETUP POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE
EXISTING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB/
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THIS WIND
FIELD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
GREATEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL /OVER 50 MPH/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THIS CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
BETTER ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND GREATER MIXING.  NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO TIP THE SCALES OR LEND CONFIDENCE FOR A WARNING LEVEL RISK AT
THIS STAGE...BUT A SOLID POP OF WIND TIED IMMEDIATELY TO THE FROPA
AND/OR A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD GENERATE A FEW HIGH END
ADVISORY GUSTS.

ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...A GOOD
15C 24 HOUR DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 850-925 MB LAYER BY
DAYBREAK.  THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
TRAILING DEFORMATION NOW APPEARS TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT...ONLY THE TRI-CITIES AT THE CUSP OF A FADING FORCING FIELD
EXPECTED TO WASH BACK IN LATE TONIGHT.  RATHER MODEST LOOKING LAKE
RESPONSE TONIGHT SUGGESTS A LIMITED IMPACT FOR OUR DOWNSTREAM
POSITION...AGAIN THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
DIRECTING THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY MID MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXISTING STRATUS
DECK...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...

LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C...WHICH IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...THERE IS MOISTURE UP AT
700 MB...AS COLD POOL OF -14 TO -15 C WORKS THROUGH...AND WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEEP BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
925 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5 C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE MID 30S.

PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EURO/NAM STILL INDICATING
HIGHER RH (80+ PERCENT) AT 925 MB (RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION)...AND WILL CALL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT THIS POINT...AND
CONSERVATIVE MINS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH BETTER CLEARING AND
FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR TEENS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME TYPE OF SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE/PV CENTER ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH (MISSOURI/ALONG OR SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER)...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP DRY (PARTIAL SUNSHINE) AS EAST COAST STORM
IS TOO FAR TO THE EAST AS WELL. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW (850 MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS)...SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME (SCATTERED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW
BAY...THE FORECASTED WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME MARGINAL LINGER GALES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A SOLID SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS MADE ITS WAY OVER THE
TAF SITES AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE RAIN HAS LOWERED CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS. GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE KEPT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN CHECK.
WINDS WILL TURN SW MONDAY MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL THEN
REACH OR EXCEED 40 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY NIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 240842
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DYNAMIC MID LEVEL FLOW ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN
INBOUND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EXITING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN PLACE LOCALLY TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY FILAMENTS WORKING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALREADY
PROMPTING A STEADY DEEPENING OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR HOLLAND.  THIS LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AN
ADDITIONAL 6-8 MILLIBARS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY.  EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH IN CONCERT...LEAVING SE MICHIGAN TEMPORARILY
WITHIN A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  GIVEN THAT READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCALES...NOW LOOKING AT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
MAY PROMOTE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
TIME...STILL WORTHY OF A HIGH END POP.

A ROBUST MID AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN....STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT SOLIDIFIED BENEATH
STRONG EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND A CONTRACTING/CONSOLIDATING MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD.  A SOLID PERIOD OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC DESCENT
WILL EMERGE WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING ISALLOBARIC
FORCING...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYING A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA CENTERED ON 20Z-00Z.  MIXING POTENTIAL TOUGHER TO
GAUGE...A LOWER CEILING AND PROSPECTS FOR LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS PERHAPS MUTING THE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY DOES LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHALLOW LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /A RUMBLE OF THUNDER?/ TO EMERGE ALONG THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE...WHICH WOULD IN ITSELF PRESENT A GREATER
POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WIND FIELD. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
SETUP POINTS TOWARD A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE
EXISTING STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB/
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN THIS WIND
FIELD...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
GREATEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL /OVER 50 MPH/ WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...THIS CORRIDOR MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A
BETTER ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND GREATER MIXING.  NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
TO TIP THE SCALES OR LEND CONFIDENCE FOR A WARNING LEVEL RISK AT
THIS STAGE...BUT A SOLID POP OF WIND TIED IMMEDIATELY TO THE FROPA
AND/OR A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD GENERATE A FEW HIGH END
ADVISORY GUSTS.

ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...A GOOD
15C 24 HOUR DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE 850-925 MB LAYER BY
DAYBREAK.  THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
TRAILING DEFORMATION NOW APPEARS TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE THERMAL PROFILE PLUMMETS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT...ONLY THE TRI-CITIES AT THE CUSP OF A FADING FORCING FIELD
EXPECTED TO WASH BACK IN LATE TONIGHT.  RATHER MODEST LOOKING LAKE
RESPONSE TONIGHT SUGGESTS A LIMITED IMPACT FOR OUR DOWNSTREAM
POSITION...AGAIN THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
DIRECTING THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE TRI-CITIES.  THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...
PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH BY MID MORNING.  ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXISTING STRATUS
DECK...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...

LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12 C...WHICH IS
NOT IDEAL FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL...THERE IS MOISTURE UP AT
700 MB...AS COLD POOL OF -14 TO -15 C WORKS THROUGH...AND WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH STEEP BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
925 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -5 C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE MID 30S.

PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT
TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EURO/NAM STILL INDICATING
HIGHER RH (80+ PERCENT) AT 925 MB (RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION)...AND WILL CALL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AT THIS POINT...AND
CONSERVATIVE MINS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH BETTER CLEARING AND
FAVORABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL FOR TEENS...ESPECIALLY
IF WE CAN GET SOME TYPE OF SNOW COVER FROM TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE/PV CENTER ON WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH (MISSOURI/ALONG OR SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER)...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END UP DRY (PARTIAL SUNSHINE) AS EAST COAST STORM
IS TOO FAR TO THE EAST AS WELL. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW (850 MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID NEGATIVE
TEENS)...SUFFICIENT TO GET SOME (SCATTERED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THE SOUTHWEST GALES OVER SAGINAW
BAY...THE FORECASTED WATER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CHART DATUM...BOTTOMING OUT LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME MARGINAL LINGER GALES OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
DIMINISHING WINDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A SOLID SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS MADE ITS WAY OVER THE
TAF SITES AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE RAIN HAS LOWERED CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS. GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE KEPT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN CHECK.
WINDS WILL TURN SW MONDAY MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL THEN
REACH OR EXCEED 40 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY NIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ421-422.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ444.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 240451
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A SOLID SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS MADE ITS WAY OVER THE
TAF SITES AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE RAIN HAS LOWERED CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS. GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE KEPT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN CHECK.
WINDS WILL TURN SW MONDAY MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL THEN
REACH OR EXCEED 40 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY NIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 416 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENERGETIC UPPER AIR
STRUCTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER SE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A SMALLER WAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL COMPLEMENT THE STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO FORM A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
DURING THE EVENING. MID AFTERNOON RADAR COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWS RAIN
FILLING IN BETWEEN THE UPPER WAVES FROM ILLINOIS THROUGH KENTUCKY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCELERATED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAIN PATTERN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN SUPPORT OF THE GOING CATEGORICAL FORECAST. MODEL QPF NEAR
1 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE NIGHT BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KNOTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGH END RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT NOT EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PLACING THE WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON LEAVING SE MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW BY 3 AM. THIS WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S AND BREAK UP RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

SEVERAL FEATURES CATCHING ATTENTION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND MORE UPPER ENERGY OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LATTER TWO FEATURES...LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO HOW THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THIS ENERGY DESPITE IT BEING A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL SUITE. NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO RIDE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW WHILE THE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/WYOMING
LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THESE UPPER FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION TO EXTEND SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN....WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS HAS
LED TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS MAY BE
LOCATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALSO NECESSITATED A
RAMPING UP OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR MODELS TO ADJUST TRACKS
AND SURFACE FEATURES FURTHER...AND BOTH ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. CHANGES ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE WAS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A 3 HOUR
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A RAPID STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A STRONG CORE OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS TO DESCEND
TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS....WITH THE SUPPORT OF A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DESCENT ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
BETWEEN 280-290K. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF REACHING AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
WATCH GIVEN RECENT MODEL SHIFTS. COLD AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. LATEST ROUND OF MODELS SHOW THE
TROWAL WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON DURING THE
EVENING...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH NOW...DEFORMATION AXIS HAS BEEN DRAWN SOUTHWARD IN 12Z
MODEL RUNS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID BUMP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
KICKING IN WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SATURATION UP
THROUGH 7000 FEET OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL FAVOR AREAS BETWEEN I-69 AND I-94. H850 TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -8
TO -10 C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER AIR
ALOFT (INCLUDING WITHIN THE DGZ) AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BREAKS NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC REFLECTION
ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF THESE CLIPPERS MISS SOUTHEAST
MI...EXPECT LAKE RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING THE CWA. WHILE H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND -10C THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE ECMWF POINTS TO SATURDAY BEGINNING A POTENTIAL WARMUP.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE PERSISTENT FEED OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES OVER THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS TO BUILD BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO ON
MONDAY...PULLING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY GENERATED AS MUCH COLDER
AIR RUSHES BACK IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW A STRONG
CORE OF GALE FORCE...OR EVEN STORM FORCE...WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WHERE THIS CORE OF WINDS WILL BE LOCATED...BUT THE LATEST ROUND OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STRONG WIND
CORE. THE STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO COVER
MOST OF LAKE HURON IN ADDITION TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE. POTENTIAL EXISTS THERE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 45 TO 50 KNOTS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD FOLLOW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES TO GALE OR STORM WARNINGS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ362-363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ444.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 240451
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A SOLID SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS MADE ITS WAY OVER THE
TAF SITES AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE RAIN HAS LOWERED CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS ALL
LOCATIONS. GUSTY SE WINDS HAVE KEPT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN CHECK.
WINDS WILL TURN SW MONDAY MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL THEN
REACH OR EXCEED 40 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY NIGHT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 416 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENERGETIC UPPER AIR
STRUCTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER SE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A SMALLER WAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL COMPLEMENT THE STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO FORM A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
DURING THE EVENING. MID AFTERNOON RADAR COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWS RAIN
FILLING IN BETWEEN THE UPPER WAVES FROM ILLINOIS THROUGH KENTUCKY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCELERATED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAIN PATTERN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN SUPPORT OF THE GOING CATEGORICAL FORECAST. MODEL QPF NEAR
1 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE NIGHT BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KNOTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGH END RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT NOT EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PLACING THE WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON LEAVING SE MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW BY 3 AM. THIS WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S AND BREAK UP RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

SEVERAL FEATURES CATCHING ATTENTION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND MORE UPPER ENERGY OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LATTER TWO FEATURES...LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO HOW THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THIS ENERGY DESPITE IT BEING A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL SUITE. NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO RIDE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW WHILE THE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/WYOMING
LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THESE UPPER FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION TO EXTEND SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN....WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS HAS
LED TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS MAY BE
LOCATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALSO NECESSITATED A
RAMPING UP OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR MODELS TO ADJUST TRACKS
AND SURFACE FEATURES FURTHER...AND BOTH ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. CHANGES ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE WAS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A 3 HOUR
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A RAPID STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A STRONG CORE OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS TO DESCEND
TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS....WITH THE SUPPORT OF A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DESCENT ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
BETWEEN 280-290K. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF REACHING AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
WATCH GIVEN RECENT MODEL SHIFTS. COLD AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. LATEST ROUND OF MODELS SHOW THE
TROWAL WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON DURING THE
EVENING...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH NOW...DEFORMATION AXIS HAS BEEN DRAWN SOUTHWARD IN 12Z
MODEL RUNS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID BUMP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
KICKING IN WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SATURATION UP
THROUGH 7000 FEET OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL FAVOR AREAS BETWEEN I-69 AND I-94. H850 TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -8
TO -10 C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER AIR
ALOFT (INCLUDING WITHIN THE DGZ) AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BREAKS NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC REFLECTION
ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF THESE CLIPPERS MISS SOUTHEAST
MI...EXPECT LAKE RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING THE CWA. WHILE H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND -10C THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE ECMWF POINTS TO SATURDAY BEGINNING A POTENTIAL WARMUP.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE PERSISTENT FEED OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES OVER THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS TO BUILD BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO ON
MONDAY...PULLING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY GENERATED AS MUCH COLDER
AIR RUSHES BACK IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW A STRONG
CORE OF GALE FORCE...OR EVEN STORM FORCE...WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WHERE THIS CORE OF WINDS WILL BE LOCATED...BUT THE LATEST ROUND OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STRONG WIND
CORE. THE STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO COVER
MOST OF LAKE HURON IN ADDITION TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE. POTENTIAL EXISTS THERE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 45 TO 50 KNOTS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD FOLLOW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES TO GALE OR STORM WARNINGS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ362-363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEZ444.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 232319
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
619 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A SURGE OF RAIN IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE PATTERN OF
RAIN...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TOWARD
THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS DURING MID TO LATE EVENING. SE WIND AVERAGING
15 KNOTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LESS THAN IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION BUT LIFR CEILING WILL BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST
GIVEN THE MATURE WARM FRONT APPROACHING WITH THE PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
FAVORS SIMILAR ONSET TIMING THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOLLOWED
BY A PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MBS WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD THROUGH THE MORNING.
WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 40
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST UPON PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 416 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENERGETIC UPPER AIR
STRUCTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER SE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A SMALLER WAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL COMPLEMENT THE STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO FORM A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
DURING THE EVENING. MID AFTERNOON RADAR COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWS RAIN
FILLING IN BETWEEN THE UPPER WAVES FROM ILLINOIS THROUGH KENTUCKY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCELERATED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAIN PATTERN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN SUPPORT OF THE GOING CATEGORICAL FORECAST. MODEL QPF NEAR
1 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE NIGHT BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KNOTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGH END RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT NOT EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PLACING THE WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON LEAVING SE MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW BY 3 AM. THIS WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S AND BREAK UP RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

SEVERAL FEATURES CATCHING ATTENTION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND MORE UPPER ENERGY OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LATTER TWO FEATURES...LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO HOW THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THIS ENERGY DESPITE IT BEING A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL SUITE. NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO RIDE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW WHILE THE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/WYOMING
LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THESE UPPER FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION TO EXTEND SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN....WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS HAS
LED TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS MAY BE
LOCATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALSO NECESSITATED A
RAMPING UP OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR MODELS TO ADJUST TRACKS
AND SURFACE FEATURES FURTHER...AND BOTH ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. CHANGES ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE WAS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A 3 HOUR
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A RAPID STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A STRONG CORE OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS TO DESCEND
TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS....WITH THE SUPPORT OF A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DESCENT ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
BETWEEN 280-290K. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF REACHING AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
WATCH GIVEN RECENT MODEL SHIFTS. COLD AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. LATEST ROUND OF MODELS SHOW THE
TROWAL WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON DURING THE
EVENING...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH NOW...DEFORMATION AXIS HAS BEEN DRAWN SOUTHWARD IN 12Z
MODEL RUNS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID BUMP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
KICKING IN WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SATURATION UP
THROUGH 7000 FEET OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL FAVOR AREAS BETWEEN I-69 AND I-94. H850 TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -8
TO -10 C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER AIR
ALOFT (INCLUDING WITHIN THE DGZ) AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BREAKS NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC REFLECTION
ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF THESE CLIPPERS MISS SOUTHEAST
MI...EXPECT LAKE RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING THE CWA. WHILE H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND -10C THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE ECMWF POINTS TO SATURDAY BEGINNING A POTENTIAL WARMUP.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE PERSISTENT FEED OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES OVER THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS TO BUILD BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO ON
MONDAY...PULLING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY GENERATED AS MUCH COLDER
AIR RUSHES BACK IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW A STRONG
CORE OF GALE FORCE...OR EVEN STORM FORCE...WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WHERE THIS CORE OF WINDS WILL BE LOCATED...BUT THE LATEST ROUND OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STRONG WIND
CORE. THE STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO COVER
MOST OF LAKE HURON IN ADDITION TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE. POTENTIAL EXISTS THERE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 45 TO 50 KNOTS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD FOLLOW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES TO GALE OR STORM WARNINGS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 232319
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
619 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A SURGE OF RAIN IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE PATTERN OF
RAIN...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TOWARD
THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS DURING MID TO LATE EVENING. SE WIND AVERAGING
15 KNOTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LESS THAN IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION BUT LIFR CEILING WILL BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST
GIVEN THE MATURE WARM FRONT APPROACHING WITH THE PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
FAVORS SIMILAR ONSET TIMING THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOLLOWED
BY A PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MBS WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD THROUGH THE MORNING.
WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 40
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST UPON PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY EVENING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 416 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENERGETIC UPPER AIR
STRUCTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER SE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A SMALLER WAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL COMPLEMENT THE STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO FORM A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
DURING THE EVENING. MID AFTERNOON RADAR COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWS RAIN
FILLING IN BETWEEN THE UPPER WAVES FROM ILLINOIS THROUGH KENTUCKY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCELERATED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAIN PATTERN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN SUPPORT OF THE GOING CATEGORICAL FORECAST. MODEL QPF NEAR
1 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE NIGHT BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KNOTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGH END RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT NOT EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PLACING THE WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON LEAVING SE MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW BY 3 AM. THIS WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S AND BREAK UP RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

SEVERAL FEATURES CATCHING ATTENTION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND MORE UPPER ENERGY OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LATTER TWO FEATURES...LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO HOW THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THIS ENERGY DESPITE IT BEING A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL SUITE. NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO RIDE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW WHILE THE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/WYOMING
LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THESE UPPER FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION TO EXTEND SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN....WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS HAS
LED TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS MAY BE
LOCATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALSO NECESSITATED A
RAMPING UP OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR MODELS TO ADJUST TRACKS
AND SURFACE FEATURES FURTHER...AND BOTH ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. CHANGES ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE WAS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A 3 HOUR
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A RAPID STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A STRONG CORE OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS TO DESCEND
TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS....WITH THE SUPPORT OF A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DESCENT ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
BETWEEN 280-290K. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF REACHING AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
WATCH GIVEN RECENT MODEL SHIFTS. COLD AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. LATEST ROUND OF MODELS SHOW THE
TROWAL WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON DURING THE
EVENING...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH NOW...DEFORMATION AXIS HAS BEEN DRAWN SOUTHWARD IN 12Z
MODEL RUNS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID BUMP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
KICKING IN WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SATURATION UP
THROUGH 7000 FEET OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL FAVOR AREAS BETWEEN I-69 AND I-94. H850 TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -8
TO -10 C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER AIR
ALOFT (INCLUDING WITHIN THE DGZ) AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BREAKS NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC REFLECTION
ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF THESE CLIPPERS MISS SOUTHEAST
MI...EXPECT LAKE RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING THE CWA. WHILE H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND -10C THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE ECMWF POINTS TO SATURDAY BEGINNING A POTENTIAL WARMUP.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE PERSISTENT FEED OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES OVER THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS TO BUILD BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO ON
MONDAY...PULLING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY GENERATED AS MUCH COLDER
AIR RUSHES BACK IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW A STRONG
CORE OF GALE FORCE...OR EVEN STORM FORCE...WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WHERE THIS CORE OF WINDS WILL BE LOCATED...BUT THE LATEST ROUND OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STRONG WIND
CORE. THE STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO COVER
MOST OF LAKE HURON IN ADDITION TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE. POTENTIAL EXISTS THERE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 45 TO 50 KNOTS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD FOLLOW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES TO GALE OR STORM WARNINGS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 232116
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
416 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENERGETIC UPPER AIR
STRUCTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER SE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A SMALLER WAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL COMPLEMENT THE STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO FORM A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
DURING THE EVENING. MID AFTERNOON RADAR COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWS RAIN
FILLING IN BETWEEN THE UPPER WAVES FROM ILLINOIS THROUGH KENTUCKY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCELERATED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAIN PATTERN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN SUPPORT OF THE GOING CATEGORICAL FORECAST. MODEL QPF NEAR
1 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE NIGHT BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KNOTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGH END RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT NOT EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PLACING THE WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON LEAVING SE MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW BY 3 AM. THIS WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S AND BREAK UP RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

SEVERAL FEATURES CATCHING ATTENTION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND MORE UPPER ENERGY OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LATTER TWO FEATURES...LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO HOW THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THIS ENERGY DESPITE IT BEING A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL SUITE. NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO RIDE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW WHILE THE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/WYOMING
LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THESE UPPER FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION TO EXTEND SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN....WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS HAS
LED TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS MAY BE
LOCATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALSO NECESSITATED A
RAMPING UP OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR MODELS TO ADJUST TRACKS
AND SURFACE FEATURES FURTHER...AND BOTH ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. CHANGES ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE WAS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A 3 HOUR
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A RAPID STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A STRONG CORE OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS TO DESCEND
TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS....WITH THE SUPPORT OF A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DESCENT ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
BETWEEN 280-290K. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF REACHING AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
WATCH GIVEN RECENT MODEL SHIFTS. COLD AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. LATEST ROUND OF MODELS SHOW THE
TROWAL WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON DURING THE
EVENING...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH NOW...DEFORMATION AXIS HAS BEEN DRAWN SOUTHWARD IN 12Z
MODEL RUNS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID BUMP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
KICKING IN WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SATURATION UP
THROUGH 7000 FEET OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL FAVOR AREAS BETWEEN I-69 AND I-94. H850 TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -8
TO -10 C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER AIR
ALOFT (INCLUDING WITHIN THE DGZ) AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BREAKS NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC REFLECTION
ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF THESE CLIPPERS MISS SOUTHEAST
MI...EXPECT LAKE RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING THE CWA. WHILE H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND -10C THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE ECMWF POINTS TO SATURDAY BEGINNING A POTENTIAL WARMUP.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE PERSISTENT FEED OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES OVER THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS TO BUILD BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO ON
MONDAY...PULLING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY GENERATED AS MUCH COLDER
AIR RUSHES BACK IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW A STRONG
CORE OF GALE FORCE...OR EVEN STORM FORCE...WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WHERE THIS CORE OF WINDS WILL BE LOCATED...BUT THE LATEST ROUND OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STRONG WIND
CORE. THE STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO COVER
MOST OF LAKE HURON IN ADDITION TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE. POTENTIAL EXISTS THERE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 45 TO 50 KNOTS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD FOLLOW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES TO GALE OR STORM WARNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1257 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY HOLD TOGETHER AT MBS SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE A SURGE OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN OF RAIN...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING TOWARD THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS DURING MID TO LATE EVENING.
SE WIND AVERAGING 15 KNOTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LESS THAN IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION BUT LIFR CEILING WILL BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST GIVEN THE MATURE WARM FRONT APPROACHING WITH THE PRIMARY
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
FAVORS SIMILAR ONSET TIMING THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOLLOWED
BY A PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MBS WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD THROUGH THE MORNING.
WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UPON PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 232116
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
416 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENERGETIC UPPER AIR
STRUCTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER SE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A SMALLER WAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL COMPLEMENT THE STRONGER WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO FORM A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
DURING THE EVENING. MID AFTERNOON RADAR COMPOSITE ALREADY SHOWS RAIN
FILLING IN BETWEEN THE UPPER WAVES FROM ILLINOIS THROUGH KENTUCKY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACCELERATED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAIN PATTERN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN SUPPORT OF THE GOING CATEGORICAL FORECAST. MODEL QPF NEAR
1 INCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE NIGHT BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOLUTIONS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A LOW
LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KNOTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGH END RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT NOT EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PLACING THE WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON LEAVING SE MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW BY 3 AM. THIS WILL HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S AND BREAK UP RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

SEVERAL FEATURES CATCHING ATTENTION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO...AND MORE UPPER ENERGY OVER MONTANA/WYOMING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LATTER TWO FEATURES...LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO HOW THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THIS ENERGY DESPITE IT BEING A
SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL SUITE. NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO RIDE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY TOMORROW WHILE THE TROUGH OVER MONTANA/WYOMING
LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THESE UPPER FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONJUNCTION TO EXTEND SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS BACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN....WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO. THIS HAS
LED TO A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN WHERE THE STRONGER CORE OF WINDS MAY BE
LOCATED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALSO NECESSITATED A
RAMPING UP OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR MODELS TO ADJUST TRACKS
AND SURFACE FEATURES FURTHER...AND BOTH ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. CHANGES ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE WAS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A 3 HOUR
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A RAPID STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A STRONG CORE OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS TO DESCEND
TO THE SURFACE AS GUSTS....WITH THE SUPPORT OF A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG DESCENT ALONG ISENTROPIC SURFACES
BETWEEN 280-290K. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF REACHING AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
WATCH GIVEN RECENT MODEL SHIFTS. COLD AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. LATEST ROUND OF MODELS SHOW THE
TROWAL WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON DURING THE
EVENING...AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH NOW...DEFORMATION AXIS HAS BEEN DRAWN SOUTHWARD IN 12Z
MODEL RUNS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND DID BUMP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB...WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER MIDLAND AND BAY
COUNTIES.

FOR TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
KICKING IN WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP SATURATION UP
THROUGH 7000 FEET OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL FAVOR AREAS BETWEEN I-69 AND I-94. H850 TEMPS BACK DOWN TO -8
TO -10 C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER AIR
ALOFT (INCLUDING WITHIN THE DGZ) AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BREAKS NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC REFLECTION
ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW CLIPPER SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING
MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE AREA. EVEN IF THESE CLIPPERS MISS SOUTHEAST
MI...EXPECT LAKE RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING THE CWA. WHILE H85 TEMPS HOVER AROUND -10C THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE ECMWF POINTS TO SATURDAY BEGINNING A POTENTIAL WARMUP.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE PERSISTENT FEED OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES OVER THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS TO BUILD BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO ON
MONDAY...PULLING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY GENERATED AS MUCH COLDER
AIR RUSHES BACK IN OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW A STRONG
CORE OF GALE FORCE...OR EVEN STORM FORCE...WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WHERE THIS CORE OF WINDS WILL BE LOCATED...BUT THE LATEST ROUND OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STRONG WIND
CORE. THE STORM WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO COVER
MOST OF LAKE HURON IN ADDITION TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE. POTENTIAL EXISTS THERE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 45 TO 50 KNOTS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD FOLLOW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES TO GALE OR STORM WARNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1257 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY HOLD TOGETHER AT MBS SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE A SURGE OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN OF RAIN...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING TOWARD THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS DURING MID TO LATE EVENING.
SE WIND AVERAGING 15 KNOTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LESS THAN IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION BUT LIFR CEILING WILL BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST GIVEN THE MATURE WARM FRONT APPROACHING WITH THE PRIMARY
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
FAVORS SIMILAR ONSET TIMING THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOLLOWED
BY A PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MBS WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD THROUGH THE MORNING.
WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UPON PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361.

LAKE ST CLAIR...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/MM
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231757
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1257 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY HOLD TOGETHER AT MBS SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE A SURGE OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN OF RAIN...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING TOWARD THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS DURING MID TO LATE EVENING.
SE WIND AVERAGING 15 KNOTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LESS THAN IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION BUT LIFR CEILING WILL BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST GIVEN THE MATURE WARM FRONT APPROACHING WITH THE PRIMARY
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
FAVORS SIMILAR ONSET TIMING THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOLLOWED
BY A PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MBS WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD THROUGH THE MORNING.
WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UPON PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1050 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATE...

A WEAK WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RUN ITS COURSE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAVOR OF A BREAK
IN COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING MID AFTERNOON. THE BREAK WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE QUICKLY RELOADS AND MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INCOMING MODEL DATA POINTS TO
THE BREAK FILLING IN RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONG AND DEEP SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB ENSURING RENEWED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A TREND TOWARD
CATEGORICAL PROBS LATE IN THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
ALREADY BECOMING ABSORBED/CAPTURED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 12 HR HEIGHT
FALL CENTER (-18 DAM) WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING GOOD CYCLOGENESIS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET/GOOD OVERRUNNING SET UP/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND 850
MB DEW PTS OF 7-8 C TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH
WILL LIKELY BE COMMON. A QUICK LOOK AT 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 2
INCH THRESHOLDS...AND DO THINK THE GROUND WILL THAW OUT ENOUGH
TODAY TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL...AND NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE 3+ STANDARD ANOMALY WITH RESPECT
TO PW VALES.

A MILD START TO THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE OF A RISE (LOWER 50S)...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH RENEWED SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVING.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE LOCKED ONTO THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACTIVE
UPPER JET OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE PV FEATURES AND
ATTENDANT UPPER JET COUPLING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TO JUST NORTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY YET WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THE KEY LOW LEVEL FEATURES
HEADING INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP CONTINUES TO
CONTRACT WITH EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL CYCLE...LENDING INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS TIME.

BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 50S DURING THIS
TIME.  BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A SMALL PAUSE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MID MORNING...BEFORE THE INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TUCKED BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD CVA
POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.
DIMINISHING STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD YIELD A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL.  MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF INTEREST REMAINS THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE. GUST POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD
OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND AT LEAST WEAK MIXING
POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS.
RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE AT 925
MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS CLOSE TO OR AT A LOW END ADVISORY
/40 TO 45 MPH/...GREATEST GUSTS CENTERED 21Z-02Z.

AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY EVENING...A PLUMMETING FREEZING LEVEL REINTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN DURING THIS TIME.  MODEST LAKE
MICHIGAN RESPONSE INITIALLY /LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5000 FT/ WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A LACK OF BETTER DOWNSTREAM ORGANIZATION.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ANCHORING THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS WILL SETTLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP AUGMENT THE MOISTURE FLUX IN GENERATING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-12C AT 850 MB/ AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ENSURING HIGHS ARRIVE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREE OF
FREEZING.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY...A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR GREATER DOWNSTREAM ADVANCEMENT
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

DRY AND COLD INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE
COMPACT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS DURING THIS TIME. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN THE GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA...WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL IN
EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WHILE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361-
     421-422-441>443-462>464.

     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231757
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1257 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY HOLD TOGETHER AT MBS SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...BUT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE A SURGE OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PATTERN OF RAIN...ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING TOWARD THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL PRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS DURING MID TO LATE EVENING.
SE WIND AVERAGING 15 KNOTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR LESS THAN IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION BUT LIFR CEILING WILL BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST GIVEN THE MATURE WARM FRONT APPROACHING WITH THE PRIMARY
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
FAVORS SIMILAR ONSET TIMING THROUGH THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOLLOWED
BY A PROGRESSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MBS WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINGER FOR A LONGER PERIOD THROUGH THE MORNING.
WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UPON PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1050 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATE...

A WEAK WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RUN ITS COURSE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAVOR OF A BREAK
IN COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING MID AFTERNOON. THE BREAK WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE QUICKLY RELOADS AND MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INCOMING MODEL DATA POINTS TO
THE BREAK FILLING IN RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONG AND DEEP SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB ENSURING RENEWED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A TREND TOWARD
CATEGORICAL PROBS LATE IN THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
ALREADY BECOMING ABSORBED/CAPTURED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 12 HR HEIGHT
FALL CENTER (-18 DAM) WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING GOOD CYCLOGENESIS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET/GOOD OVERRUNNING SET UP/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND 850
MB DEW PTS OF 7-8 C TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH
WILL LIKELY BE COMMON. A QUICK LOOK AT 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 2
INCH THRESHOLDS...AND DO THINK THE GROUND WILL THAW OUT ENOUGH
TODAY TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL...AND NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE 3+ STANDARD ANOMALY WITH RESPECT
TO PW VALES.

A MILD START TO THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE OF A RISE (LOWER 50S)...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH RENEWED SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVING.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE LOCKED ONTO THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACTIVE
UPPER JET OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE PV FEATURES AND
ATTENDANT UPPER JET COUPLING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TO JUST NORTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY YET WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THE KEY LOW LEVEL FEATURES
HEADING INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP CONTINUES TO
CONTRACT WITH EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL CYCLE...LENDING INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS TIME.

BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 50S DURING THIS
TIME.  BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A SMALL PAUSE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MID MORNING...BEFORE THE INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TUCKED BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD CVA
POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.
DIMINISHING STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD YIELD A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL.  MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF INTEREST REMAINS THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE. GUST POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD
OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND AT LEAST WEAK MIXING
POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS.
RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE AT 925
MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS CLOSE TO OR AT A LOW END ADVISORY
/40 TO 45 MPH/...GREATEST GUSTS CENTERED 21Z-02Z.

AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY EVENING...A PLUMMETING FREEZING LEVEL REINTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN DURING THIS TIME.  MODEST LAKE
MICHIGAN RESPONSE INITIALLY /LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5000 FT/ WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A LACK OF BETTER DOWNSTREAM ORGANIZATION.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ANCHORING THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS WILL SETTLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP AUGMENT THE MOISTURE FLUX IN GENERATING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-12C AT 850 MB/ AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ENSURING HIGHS ARRIVE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREE OF
FREEZING.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY...A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR GREATER DOWNSTREAM ADVANCEMENT
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

DRY AND COLD INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE
COMPACT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS DURING THIS TIME. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN THE GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA...WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL IN
EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WHILE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361-
     421-422-441>443-462>464.

     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231550
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1050 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A WEAK WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RUN ITS COURSE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAVOR OF A BREAK
IN COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING MID AFTERNOON. THE BREAK WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE QUICKLY RELOADS AND MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INCOMING MODEL DATA POINTS TO
THE BREAK FILLING IN RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONG AND DEEP SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB ENSURING RENEWED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A TREND TOWARD
CATEGORICAL PROBS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 622 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS TODAY LOOK TO BE A BIT VARIABLE...LOW VFR VS MVFR
CEILINGS...AS BACKING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL TEND
TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS...WHILE AREAS OF SHOWERS WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL TEND TO MOISTEN AND SUPPRESS CEILINGS BACK DOWN INTO
MVFR CATEGORY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE RAIN LEADING
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY
GUSTING ABOVE 35 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
ALREADY BECOMING ABSORBED/CAPTURED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 12 HR HEIGHT
FALL CENTER (-18 DAM) WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING GOOD CYCLOGENESIS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET/GOOD OVERRUNNING SET UP/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND 850
MB DEW PTS OF 7-8 C TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH
WILL LIKELY BE COMMON. A QUICK LOOK AT 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 2
INCH THRESHOLDS...AND DO THINK THE GROUND WILL THAW OUT ENOUGH
TODAY TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL...AND NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE 3+ STANDARD ANOMALY WITH RESPECT
TO PW VALES.

A MILD START TO THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE OF A RISE (LOWER 50S)...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH RENEWED SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVING.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE LOCKED ONTO THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACTIVE
UPPER JET OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE PV FEATURES AND
ATTENDANT UPPER JET COUPLING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TO JUST NORTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY YET WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THE KEY LOW LEVEL FEATURES
HEADING INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP CONTINUES TO
CONTRACT WITH EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL CYCLE...LENDING INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS TIME.

BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 50S DURING THIS
TIME.  BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A SMALL PAUSE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MID MORNING...BEFORE THE INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TUCKED BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD CVA
POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.
DIMINISHING STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD YIELD A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL.  MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF INTEREST REMAINS THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE. GUST POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD
OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND AT LEAST WEAK MIXING
POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS.
RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE AT 925
MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS CLOSE TO OR AT A LOW END ADVISORY
/40 TO 45 MPH/...GREATEST GUSTS CENTERED 21Z-02Z.

AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY EVENING...A PLUMMETING FREEZING LEVEL REINTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN DURING THIS TIME.  MODEST LAKE
MICHIGAN RESPONSE INITIALLY /LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5000 FT/ WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A LACK OF BETTER DOWNSTREAM ORGANIZATION.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ANCHORING THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS WILL SETTLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP AUGMENT THE MOISTURE FLUX IN GENERATING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-12C AT 850 MB/ AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ENSURING HIGHS ARRIVE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREE OF
FREEZING.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY...A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR GREATER DOWNSTREAM ADVANCEMENT
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

DRY AND COLD INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE
COMPACT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS DURING THIS TIME. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN THE GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA...WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL IN
EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WHILE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361-
     421-422-441>443-462>464.

     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231550
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1050 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A WEAK WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RUN ITS COURSE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAVOR OF A BREAK
IN COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING MID AFTERNOON. THE BREAK WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE QUICKLY RELOADS AND MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INCOMING MODEL DATA POINTS TO
THE BREAK FILLING IN RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONG AND DEEP SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB ENSURING RENEWED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A TREND TOWARD
CATEGORICAL PROBS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 622 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS TODAY LOOK TO BE A BIT VARIABLE...LOW VFR VS MVFR
CEILINGS...AS BACKING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL TEND
TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS...WHILE AREAS OF SHOWERS WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL TEND TO MOISTEN AND SUPPRESS CEILINGS BACK DOWN INTO
MVFR CATEGORY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE RAIN LEADING
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY
GUSTING ABOVE 35 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
ALREADY BECOMING ABSORBED/CAPTURED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 12 HR HEIGHT
FALL CENTER (-18 DAM) WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING GOOD CYCLOGENESIS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET/GOOD OVERRUNNING SET UP/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND 850
MB DEW PTS OF 7-8 C TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH
WILL LIKELY BE COMMON. A QUICK LOOK AT 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 2
INCH THRESHOLDS...AND DO THINK THE GROUND WILL THAW OUT ENOUGH
TODAY TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL...AND NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE 3+ STANDARD ANOMALY WITH RESPECT
TO PW VALES.

A MILD START TO THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE OF A RISE (LOWER 50S)...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH RENEWED SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVING.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE LOCKED ONTO THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACTIVE
UPPER JET OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE PV FEATURES AND
ATTENDANT UPPER JET COUPLING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TO JUST NORTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY YET WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THE KEY LOW LEVEL FEATURES
HEADING INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP CONTINUES TO
CONTRACT WITH EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL CYCLE...LENDING INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS TIME.

BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 50S DURING THIS
TIME.  BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A SMALL PAUSE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MID MORNING...BEFORE THE INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TUCKED BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD CVA
POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.
DIMINISHING STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD YIELD A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL.  MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF INTEREST REMAINS THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE. GUST POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD
OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND AT LEAST WEAK MIXING
POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS.
RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE AT 925
MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS CLOSE TO OR AT A LOW END ADVISORY
/40 TO 45 MPH/...GREATEST GUSTS CENTERED 21Z-02Z.

AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY EVENING...A PLUMMETING FREEZING LEVEL REINTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN DURING THIS TIME.  MODEST LAKE
MICHIGAN RESPONSE INITIALLY /LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5000 FT/ WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A LACK OF BETTER DOWNSTREAM ORGANIZATION.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ANCHORING THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS WILL SETTLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP AUGMENT THE MOISTURE FLUX IN GENERATING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-12C AT 850 MB/ AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ENSURING HIGHS ARRIVE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREE OF
FREEZING.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY...A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR GREATER DOWNSTREAM ADVANCEMENT
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

DRY AND COLD INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE
COMPACT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS DURING THIS TIME. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN THE GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA...WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL IN
EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WHILE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361-
     421-422-441>443-462>464.

     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 231550
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1050 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A WEAK WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RUN ITS COURSE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAVOR OF A BREAK
IN COVERAGE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING MID AFTERNOON. THE BREAK WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE QUICKLY RELOADS AND MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. INCOMING MODEL DATA POINTS TO
THE BREAK FILLING IN RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL BE PRECEDED BY A STRONG AND DEEP SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB ENSURING RENEWED
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAINTAIN A TREND TOWARD
CATEGORICAL PROBS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 622 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS TODAY LOOK TO BE A BIT VARIABLE...LOW VFR VS MVFR
CEILINGS...AS BACKING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL TEND
TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS...WHILE AREAS OF SHOWERS WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL TEND TO MOISTEN AND SUPPRESS CEILINGS BACK DOWN INTO
MVFR CATEGORY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE RAIN LEADING
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY
GUSTING ABOVE 35 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
ALREADY BECOMING ABSORBED/CAPTURED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 12 HR HEIGHT
FALL CENTER (-18 DAM) WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING GOOD CYCLOGENESIS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET/GOOD OVERRUNNING SET UP/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND 850
MB DEW PTS OF 7-8 C TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH
WILL LIKELY BE COMMON. A QUICK LOOK AT 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 2
INCH THRESHOLDS...AND DO THINK THE GROUND WILL THAW OUT ENOUGH
TODAY TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL...AND NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE 3+ STANDARD ANOMALY WITH RESPECT
TO PW VALES.

A MILD START TO THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE OF A RISE (LOWER 50S)...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH RENEWED SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVING.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE LOCKED ONTO THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACTIVE
UPPER JET OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE PV FEATURES AND
ATTENDANT UPPER JET COUPLING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TO JUST NORTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY YET WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THE KEY LOW LEVEL FEATURES
HEADING INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP CONTINUES TO
CONTRACT WITH EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL CYCLE...LENDING INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS TIME.

BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 50S DURING THIS
TIME.  BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A SMALL PAUSE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MID MORNING...BEFORE THE INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TUCKED BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD CVA
POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.
DIMINISHING STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD YIELD A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL.  MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF INTEREST REMAINS THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE. GUST POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD
OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND AT LEAST WEAK MIXING
POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS.
RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE AT 925
MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS CLOSE TO OR AT A LOW END ADVISORY
/40 TO 45 MPH/...GREATEST GUSTS CENTERED 21Z-02Z.

AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY EVENING...A PLUMMETING FREEZING LEVEL REINTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN DURING THIS TIME.  MODEST LAKE
MICHIGAN RESPONSE INITIALLY /LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5000 FT/ WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A LACK OF BETTER DOWNSTREAM ORGANIZATION.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ANCHORING THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS WILL SETTLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP AUGMENT THE MOISTURE FLUX IN GENERATING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-12C AT 850 MB/ AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ENSURING HIGHS ARRIVE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREE OF
FREEZING.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY...A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR GREATER DOWNSTREAM ADVANCEMENT
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

DRY AND COLD INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE
COMPACT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS DURING THIS TIME. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN THE GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA...WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL IN
EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WHILE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361-
     421-422-441>443-462>464.

     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231122
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
622 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CONDITIONS TODAY LOOK TO BE A BIT VARIABLE...LOW VFR VS MVFR
CEILINGS...AS BACKING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL TEND
TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS...WHILE AREAS OF SHOWERS WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL TEND TO MOISTEN AND SUPPRESS CEILINGS BACK DOWN INTO
MVFR CATEGORY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE RAIN LEADING
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY
GUSTING ABOVE 35 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
ALREADY BECOMING ABSORBED/CAPTURED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONSUS. IMPRESSIVE 12 HR HEIGHT FALL
CENTER (-18 DAM) WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING GOOD CYCLOGENSIS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET/GOOD OVERRUNNING SET UP/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND 850 MB
DEW PTS OF 7-8 C TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH WILL
LIKELY BE COMMON. A QUICK LOOK AT 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 2
INCH THRESHOLDS...AND DO THINK THE GROUND WILL THAW OUT ENOUGH
TODAY TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL...AND NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE 3+ STANDARD ANOMALY WITH RESPECT
TO PW VALES.

A MILD START TO THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE OF A RISE (LOWER 50S)...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH RENEWED SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVING.

LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE LOCKED ONTO THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACTIVE
UPPER JET OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE PV FEATURES AND
ATTENDANT UPPER JET COUPLING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TO JUST NORTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY YET WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOMENTEM OF THE KEY LOW LEVEL FEATURES HEADING
INTO MONDAY.  HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP CONTINUES TO CONTRACT
WITH EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL CYCLE...LENDING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS TIME.

BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 50S DURING THIS
TIME.  BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A SMALL PAUSE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MID MORNING...BEFORE THE INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TUCKED BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD CVA
POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.
DIMINISHING STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD YIELD A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL.  MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF INTEREST REMAINS THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE.  GUST POTENTIAL WILL CAPITILIZE ON A PERIOD
OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND AT LEAST WEAK MIXING
POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS.  RECENT
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB.  THIS
WOULD INDICATE GUSTS CLOSE TO OR AT A LOW END ADVISORY /40 TO 45
MPH/...GREATEST GUSTS CENTERED 21Z-02Z.

AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY EVENING...A PLUMMETING FREEZING LEVEL REINTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN DURING THIS TIME.  MODEST LAKE
MICHIGAN RESPONSE INITIALLY /LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5000 FT/ WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A LACK OF BETTER DOWNSTREAM ORGANIZATION.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ANCHORING THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS WILL SETTLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP AUGMENT THE MOISTURE FLUX IN GENERATING
SOME LIGHT SNOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION.  LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-12C AT 850 MB/ AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ENSURING HIGHS ARRIVE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREE OF
FREEZING.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY...A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR GREATER DOWNSTREAM ADVANCEMENT
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

DRY AND COLD INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE
COMPACT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS DURING THIS TIME. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN THE GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA...WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL IN
EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WHILE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361-
     421-422-441>443-462>464.

     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 230820
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
ALREADY BECOMING ABSORBED/CAPTURED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONSUS. IMPRESSIVE 12 HR HEIGHT FALL
CENTER (-18 DAM) WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING GOOD CYCLOGENSIS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET/GOOD OVERRUNNING SET UP/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND 850 MB
DEW PTS OF 7-8 C TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH WILL
LIKELY BE COMMON. A QUICK LOOK AT 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 2
INCH THRESHOLDS...AND DO THINK THE GROUND WILL THAW OUT ENOUGH
TODAY TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL...AND NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE 3+ STANDARD ANOMALY WITH RESPECT
TO PW VALES.

A MILD START TO THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE OF A RISE (LOWER 50S)...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH RENEWED SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVING.

&&

.LONG TERM...

DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE LOCKED ONTO THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACTIVE
UPPER JET OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE PV FEATURES AND
ATTENDANT UPPER JET COUPLING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TO JUST NORTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY YET WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOMENTEM OF THE KEY LOW LEVEL FEATURES HEADING
INTO MONDAY.  HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP CONTINUES TO CONTRACT
WITH EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL CYCLE...LENDING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS TIME.

BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 50S DURING THIS
TIME.  BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A SMALL PAUSE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MID MORNING...BEFORE THE INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TUCKED BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD CVA
POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.
DIMINISHING STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD YIELD A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL.  MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF INTEREST REMAINS THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE.  GUST POTENTIAL WILL CAPITILIZE ON A PERIOD
OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND AT LEAST WEAK MIXING
POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS.  RECENT
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB.  THIS
WOULD INDICATE GUSTS CLOSE TO OR AT A LOW END ADVISORY /40 TO 45
MPH/...GREATEST GUSTS CENTERED 21Z-02Z.

AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY EVENING...A PLUMMETING FREEZING LEVEL REINTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN DURING THIS TIME.  MODEST LAKE
MICHIGAN RESPONSE INITIALLY /LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5000 FT/ WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A LACK OF BETTER DOWNSTREAM ORGANIZATION.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ANCHORING THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS WILL SETTLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP AUGMENT THE MOISTURE FLUX IN GENERATING
SOME LIGHT SNOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION.  LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-12C AT 850 MB/ AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ENSURING HIGHS ARRIVE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREE OF
FREEZING.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY...A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR GREATER DOWNSTREAM ADVANCEMENT
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

DRY AND COLD INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE
COMPACT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THROUGH THIS TIME.  DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN THE GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA...WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL IN
EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WHILE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1148 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

//DISCUSSION...

MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CEASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE. CEILINGS HAVE POPPED JUST ABOVE MVFR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW
MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN. WITH THE LOSS OF SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE
SITES...VSBYS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED DUE TO
INTERACTIONS WITH THE SNOW COVER. A MARKED DECREASE IN CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SLUG OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
LOWER CONDITIONS TO A PREVAILING IFR AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH SUNDAY
  NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361-
     421-422-441>443-462>464.

     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 230820
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV WORKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
ALREADY BECOMING ABSORBED/CAPTURED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONSUS. IMPRESSIVE 12 HR HEIGHT FALL
CENTER (-18 DAM) WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING GOOD CYCLOGENSIS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN TONIGHT...WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET/GOOD OVERRUNNING SET UP/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND 850 MB
DEW PTS OF 7-8 C TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH WILL
LIKELY BE COMMON. A QUICK LOOK AT 6 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 2
INCH THRESHOLDS...AND DO THINK THE GROUND WILL THAW OUT ENOUGH
TODAY TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAINFALL...AND NOT PLANNING ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH DESPITE THE 3+ STANDARD ANOMALY WITH RESPECT
TO PW VALES.

A MILD START TO THE DAY...AS TEMPERATURE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE
WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE OF A RISE (LOWER 50S)...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH RENEWED SURGE OF WARM AIR ARRIVING.

&&

.LONG TERM...

DYNAMIC MID LEVEL WAVE LOCKED ONTO THE EXIT REGION OF AN ACTIVE
UPPER JET OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL QUICKLY LIFT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE PV FEATURES AND
ATTENDANT UPPER JET COUPLING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TO JUST NORTH OF THE STRAITS THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY YET WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOMENTEM OF THE KEY LOW LEVEL FEATURES HEADING
INTO MONDAY.  HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP CONTINUES TO CONTRACT
WITH EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL CYCLE...LENDING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS TIME.

BRIEF WINDOW OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE MONDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE LOWER 50S DURING THIS
TIME.  BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A SMALL PAUSE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MID MORNING...BEFORE THE INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
TUCKED BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND A PERIOD OF GOOD CVA
POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.
DIMINISHING STABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD YIELD A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL.  MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF INTEREST REMAINS THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME...SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE.  GUST POTENTIAL WILL CAPITILIZE ON A PERIOD
OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND AT LEAST WEAK MIXING
POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS.  RECENT
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB.  THIS
WOULD INDICATE GUSTS CLOSE TO OR AT A LOW END ADVISORY /40 TO 45
MPH/...GREATEST GUSTS CENTERED 21Z-02Z.

AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
BY EARLY EVENING...A PLUMMETING FREEZING LEVEL REINTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN DURING THIS TIME.  MODEST LAKE
MICHIGAN RESPONSE INITIALLY /LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BELOW
5000 FT/ WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
A LACK OF BETTER DOWNSTREAM ORGANIZATION.  THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ANCHORING THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS WILL SETTLE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP AUGMENT THE MOISTURE FLUX IN GENERATING
SOME LIGHT SNOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION.  LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-12C AT 850 MB/ AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ENSURING HIGHS ARRIVE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREE OF
FREEZING.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
DAY...A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR GREATER DOWNSTREAM ADVANCEMENT
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE PLUME AND SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE.

DRY AND COLD INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THE
COMPACT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THROUGH THIS TIME.  DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THE ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN THE GUST
POTENTIAL...WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY...SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA...WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL IN
EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AND THE EXACT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS IN THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FOLLOW
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST CLOSELY. A STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WHILE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1148 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

//DISCUSSION...

MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CEASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WHEN THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE. CEILINGS HAVE POPPED JUST ABOVE MVFR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW
MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN. WITH THE LOSS OF SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE
SITES...VSBYS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED DUE TO
INTERACTIONS WITH THE SNOW COVER. A MARKED DECREASE IN CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A SLUG OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
LOWER CONDITIONS TO A PREVAILING IFR AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH SUNDAY
  NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ361-
     421-422-441>443-462>464.

     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LHZ362-
     363.

LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities