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000
FXUS63 KDTX 011057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY
OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME
WINDOW.

FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY
OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME
WINDOW.

FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BY EARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010936
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY
OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME
WINDOW.

FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONICFLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BYEARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010936
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO EPISODES OF DRIZZLE LARGELY
OCCURING PRIOR TO 15Z. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT BRINGING RENEWED
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND RAIN MAINLY KPTK SOUTH IN THE 05-10Z TIME
WINDOW.

FOR DTW...SPORADIC UPSTREAM CEILINGS OF 300 FEET MEAN THAT DIPPING
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS OF 200FT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT PRIOR TO 13Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 06Z
  TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONICFLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BYEARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010752
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT FIRMLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THE REMNANT PROFILE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF A PERIOD OF
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/WAA AND CORRESPONDING REGION OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.  TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF BOTH THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE RAPID REDUCTION IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. RESIDUAL MOIST LOWEST
3000 FT TUCKED BENEATH THE INBOUND DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A
MUTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. SLOWER EVACUATION OF
PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH A LARGER
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OUTGOING FORECAST CALLS
FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE OHIO BORDER TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TRI- CITIES/THUMB.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT TURNS TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN VORTICITY AXIS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT.
SOLID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING TIED TO THIS FEATURE...A PERIOD
OF STRONG DCVA AND DEFORMATION AUGMENTED BY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.  THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN
AGGRESSIVE INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AGAIN TONIGHT. POSITIONING/
TRACK OF THIS FORCING WILL LIKELY LEAVE A MORE DEFINED NORTHERN
EXTENT TO THIS PRECIPITATION SWATH.  CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND EXISTING MOISTURE QUALITY...LOOKING AT A MORE SIZABLE
RESPONSE IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UPWARDS OF ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF INCH /HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96/.

TRAILING BROADER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING UNDER
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOW
PROCESS...ONE THAT LIKELY TAKES THE DURATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE
FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
PROFILE ONCE AGAIN WILL TRANSLATE INTO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS...BUT MORE
UNIFORMLY IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES /OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICALLY
COOLER NEARSHORE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW/. YET ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LARGELY PASS BY TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MINOR ASCENT WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RENEWED CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR MINIMAL WITH THE GREATER FORCING FOCUSED
TO THE SOUTH.

NOTABLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLIPS TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SEASONABLE LOOKING EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.  LATEST TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE INTO SE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SIGNAL OF LINEAR FORCING WITH THESE
FEATURES SUGGESTS A SOLID WINDOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS TIME.  ECMWF/GFS BOTH INDICATE THE PARENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES...THE
ASSOCIATED EXPANSIVE CYCLONICFLOW REMAINING PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TRANSLATION WILL BE A SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD...COOLISH BYEARLY MAY STANDARDS WITH AT LEAST A
LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS FRESH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDS BUILDS WAVES TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN FAVOR LIGHT
TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A COMPACT AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE M59 CORRIDOR WITH ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF 8 MILE ROAD. THE BULK OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5AM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1229 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGESTS THE HEIGHT OF THE RAINFALL
EVENT IS NOW AT PRESS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS VEERING ACROSS THE STATE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO WILL CAUSE THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH TIME. WILL SEE
A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY SLOT LIFTING INTO THE STATE.
THERE IS NOW INCREASING CONCERNS FOR LIFR TO POSSIBLY EVEN VLIFR
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM ON CEILING
HEIGHTS BELOW 500 FT AGL. THE BAND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
SAGINAW BAY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. LACK OF ANY POSITIVE
SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES WILL LIMIT ADVECTIONS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP A MVFR CEILING IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. TIMING FOR THE
ONSET OF THE NEXT RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE MID
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.

FOR DTW...WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CIG HEIGHTS. ATTM...CONFDIENCE REMAINS LOW. BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOW WORKING TOWARDS DETROIT. EXPECTING A
TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY SLOT LIFTING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS
TO PERSIST ALL OF SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL LIFTING BACK TOWARDS DETROIT
BY/AROUND 05Z SUNDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* LOW FOR A CEILIGN HEIGHT OF AT/LESS THAN 200 FT AGL.

* VERY LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
AVIATION.....JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010429
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1229 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.AVIATION...

LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC TRENDS SUGGESTS THE HEIGHT OF THE RAINFALL
EVENT IS NOW AT PRESS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS VEERING ACROSS THE STATE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
PULLING EASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO WILL CAUSE THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH TIME. WILL SEE
A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY SLOT LIFTING INTO THE STATE.
THERE IS NOW INCREASING CONCERNS FOR LIFR TO POSSIBLY EVEN VLIFR
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM ON CEILING
HEIGHTS BELOW 500 FT AGL. THE BAND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
SAGINAW BAY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. LACK OF ANY POSITIVE
SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES WILL LIMIT ADVECTIONS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP A MVFR CEILING IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. TIMING FOR THE
ONSET OF THE NEXT RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE MID
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.


FOR DTW...WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CIG HEIGHTS. ATTM...CONFDIENCE REMAINS LOW. BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOW WORKING TOWARDS DETROIT. EXPECTING A
TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE WITH THE DRY SLOT LIFTING OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS
TO PERSIST ALL OF SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL LIFTING BACK TOWARDS DETROIT
BY/AROUND 05Z SUNDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* LOW FOR A CEILIGN HEIGHT OF AT/LESS THAN 200 FT AGL.

* VERY LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1021 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPDATE...

THERE IS A CLASSIC PRESENTATION OF OVERRUNNING/ELEVATED WARM
FRONTAL DYNAMIC PRECIPITATION ON REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
THE WIDE BAND OF RAIN HAS NOW FULLY ENCOMPASSED THE CWA WITH -RA
REPORTING RIGHT THROUGH THE THUMB AND SAGINAW BAY. HIGHER Z ECHOES
AND HEAVIER RAIN RATES ARE IN PLACE OVER SW MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NEAR A PSEUDO-TRIPLE POINT THAT IS BEING FORCED
DIRECTLY BY THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
IS SOME PHASING OF THIS MIDLEVEL FORCING WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS OVER
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL JET CYCLING/STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING WHILE IT
VEERS/ROTATES ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS THIS SPECIFIC FORCING THAT IS
CURRENTLY INDUCING A FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE NET RESULT IS FOR RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING AS THE TRIPLE POINT AND -DIV CENTROID WORKS
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY TO THE SW...OVER OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE ALL VERY STRONG WITH
THIS DRY SLOT. INTRODUCED A DRIZZLE MENTION FOR AREAS AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN/IS/REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLED UP OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY (12Z
KILX SOUNDING INDICATED 9 C DEW PT AT 850 MB) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOLID UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PV ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-69 CORRIDOR...SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS REACHING AND LIKELY ECLIPSING
HALF AN INCH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL CAPE...SHOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DO
BECOME STEEP ON SUNDAY (7+ C/KM)...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DON`T EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IN PLACE (850
MB TEMPS OF 1 C OVER SAGINAW TO 10 C NEAR OHIO BORDER PER 12Z
EURO)...AND EVEN WOULD NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD SEE FAR SOUTH
REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING/LULL IN
ACTIVITY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TOMORROW...WHICH LOOKS TO SET US UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING....AS SECOND WAVE AND
LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
LOOKS TO CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z MODEL
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT...BUT 12Z EURO
REMAINS MOST AGRESSIVE/ADAMANT...AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF I-69 TO CATEGORICAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SUBSTANTIAL
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE MERGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED
TO FALL TO ZERO...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MAXES UNDER 60 DEGREES. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT...FROST CONCERNS WILL RETURN AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS.

WEAK AND FRAGILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE CLOUDS AROUND WITH A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
OHIO VALLEY SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE ONTARIO
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT CLOSING OFF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS OFTEN END UP BEING SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN
MODEL FORECASTS WHICH ALSO POINTS TO A SHAKY START TO NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...AS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWS WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD BETWEEN 4
AND 8 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SPEEDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING. A VERY LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM...OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND FINALLY TURN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAINFALL INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS THEN LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY LOOKS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH SOUTH
OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS RAINFALL WILL PROMPT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010221
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1021 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

THERE IS A CLASSIC PRESENTATION OF OVERRUNNING/ELEVATED WARM
FRONTAL DYNAMIC PRECIPITATION ON REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
THE WIDE BAND OF RAIN HAS NOW FULLY ENCOMPASSED THE CWA WITH -RA
REPORTING RIGHT THROUGH THE THUMB AND SAGINAW BAY. HIGHER Z ECHOES
AND HEAVIER RAIN RATES ARE IN PLACE OVER SW MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS NEAR A PSEUDO-TRIPLE POINT THAT IS BEING FORCED
DIRECTLY BY THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
IS SOME PHASING OF THIS MIDLEVEL FORCING WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS OVER
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC. MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL JET CYCLING/STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING WHILE IT
VEERS/ROTATES ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS THIS SPECIFIC FORCING THAT IS
CURRENTLY INDUCING A FRONTAL WAVE RESPONSE IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET.

THE NET RESULT IS FOR RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING AS THE TRIPLE POINT AND -DIV CENTROID WORKS
ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA. IMMEDIATELY TO THE SW...OVER OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS A DRY SLOT THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE ALL VERY STRONG WITH
THIS DRY SLOT. INTRODUCED A DRIZZLE MENTION FOR AREAS AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN/IS/REMAINS IN GREAT
SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 734 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

COMPROMISED AVIATION CONDITIONS BOTH IN CEILINGS AND SURFACE
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A MOISTURE LADEN FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS INTO THE STATE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF DTW...OVER NORTHERN
OHIO/INDIANA HAVE BEEN SOLID IFR IN CEILING HEIGHTS. WITH YIP
REPORTING A CIG AT LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AN HOUR AGO...DECIDED TO
DUMP ALL THE DETROIT TAF SITES INTO IFR TO START THE PERIOD. IT IS
APPEARING THAT AT LEAST FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS TO START THE
EVENT...VISIBILITIES WILL HOLD MVFR. ADDED SOME TIMING TO THE
DURATION OF THE RAIN TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...BUT THEN
SWITCHED TO DRIZZLE FOR LATE TONIGHT...POST 09Z WITH MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDS. THERE IS
SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO FALL BELOW 1 MILE...BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO DISCOURAGE IT. MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL
LIFT INTO THE SAGINAW BAY REGION BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST.

FOR DTW...THE COMBINATION OF FORECAST DATA AND AN IFR CIG HEIGHT
AT YIP SUPPORTS GOING WITH IFR CIG HEIGHTS AT METRO TO START THE
PERIOD. PER SFC OBSERVATION TRENDS THE PREDOMINATE SURFACE
VISIBILITY APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-5SM MILE RANGE. WILL WATCH
TRENDS LATER TONIGHT FOR POSSIBILITY OF THICKER FOG ONCE MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...POST 9Z. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIG HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* VERY LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLED UP OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY (12Z
KILX SOUNDING INDICATED 9 C DEW PT AT 850 MB) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOLID UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PV ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-69 CORRIDOR...SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS REACHING AND LIKELY ECLIPSING
HALF AN INCH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL CAPE...SHOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DO
BECOME STEEP ON SUNDAY (7+ C/KM)...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DON`T EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IN PLACE (850
MB TEMPS OF 1 C OVER SAGINAW TO 10 C NEAR OHIO BORDER PER 12Z
EURO)...AND EVEN WOULD NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD SEE FAR SOUTH
REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING/LULL IN
ACTIVITY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TOMORROW...WHICH LOOKS TO SET US UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING....AS SECOND WAVE AND
LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
LOOKS TO CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z MODEL
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT...BUT 12Z EURO
REMAINS MOST AGRESSIVE/ADAMANT...AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF I-69 TO CATEGORICAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SUBSTANTIAL
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE MERGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED
TO FALL TO ZERO...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MAXES UNDER 60 DEGREES. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT...FROST CONCERNS WILL RETURN AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS.

WEAK AND FRAGILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE CLOUDS AROUND WITH A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
OHIO VALLEY SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE ONTARIO
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT CLOSING OFF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS OFTEN END UP BEING SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN
MODEL FORECASTS WHICH ALSO POINTS TO A SHAKY START TO NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...AS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWS WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD BETWEEN 4
AND 8 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SPEEDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING. A VERY LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM...OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND FINALLY TURN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAINFALL INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS THEN LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY LOOKS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH SOUTH
OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS RAINFALL WILL PROMPT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 302334
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
734 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


.AVIATION...

COMPROMISED AVIATION CONDITIONS BOTH IN CEILINGS AND SURFACE
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A MOISTURE LADEN FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS INTO THE STATE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF DTW...OVER NORTHERN
OHIO/INDIANA HAVE BEEN SOLID IFR IN CEILING HEIGHTS. WITH YIP
REPORTING A CIG AT LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AN HOUR AGO...DECIDED TO
DUMP ALL THE DETROIT TAF SITES INTO IFR TO START THE PERIOD. IT IS
APPEARING THAT AT LEAST FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS TO START THE
EVENT...VISIBILITIES WILL HOLD MVFR. ADDED SOME TIMING TO THE
DURATION OF THE RAIN TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES...BUT THEN
SWITCHED TO DRIZZLE FOR LATE TONIGHT...POST 09Z WITH MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPPING OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENDS. THERE IS
SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO FALL BELOW 1 MILE...BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO DISCOURAGE IT. MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL
LIFT INTO THE SAGINAW BAY REGION BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST.

FOR DTW...THE COMBINATION OF FORECAST DATA AND AN IFR CIG HEIGHT
AT YIP SUPPORTS GOING WITH IFR CIG HEIGHTS AT METRO TO START THE
PERIOD. PER SFC OBSERVATION TRENDS THE PREDOMINATE SURFACE
VISIBILITY APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-5SM MILE RANGE. WILL WATCH
TRENDS LATER TONIGHT FOR POSSIBILITY OF THICKER FOG ONCE MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE STRIPS OUT...POST 9Z. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIG HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
  FORECAST PERIOD.

* VERY LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLED UP OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY (12Z
KILX SOUNDING INDICATED 9 C DEW PT AT 850 MB) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOLID UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PV ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-69 CORRIDOR...SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS REACHING AND LIKELY ECLIPSING
HALF AN INCH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL CAPE...SHOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DO
BECOME STEEP ON SUNDAY (7+ C/KM)...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DON`T EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IN PLACE (850
MB TEMPS OF 1 C OVER SAGINAW TO 10 C NEAR OHIO BORDER PER 12Z
EURO)...AND EVEN WOULD NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD SEE FAR SOUTH
REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING/LULL IN
ACTIVITY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TOMORROW...WHICH LOOKS TO SET US UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING....AS SECOND WAVE AND
LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
LOOKS TO CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z MODEL
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT...BUT 12Z EURO
REMAINS MOST AGRESSIVE/ADAMANT...AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF I-69 TO CATEGORICAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SUBSTANTIAL
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE MERGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED
TO FALL TO ZERO...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MAXES UNDER 60 DEGREES. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT...FROST CONCERNS WILL RETURN AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS.

WEAK AND FRAGILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE CLOUDS AROUND WITH A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
OHIO VALLEY SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE ONTARIO
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT CLOSING OFF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS OFTEN END UP BEING SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN
MODEL FORECASTS WHICH ALSO POINTS TO A SHAKY START TO NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...AS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWS WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD BETWEEN 4
AND 8 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SPEEDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING. A VERY LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM...OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND FINALLY TURN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAINFALL INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS THEN LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY LOOKS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH SOUTH
OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS RAINFALL WILL PROMPT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 301923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLED UP OVER WESTERN OHIO VALLEY (12Z
KILX SOUNDING INDICATED 9 C DEW PT AT 850 MB) WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOLID UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/PV ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-69 CORRIDOR...SUPPORTIVE OF AMOUNTS REACHING AND LIKELY ECLIPSING
HALF AN INCH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGGED TO DROP BELOW ZERO JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTUAL CAPE...SHOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DO
BECOME STEEP ON SUNDAY (7+ C/KM)...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS...AND DON`T EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY. VERY TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES IN PLACE (850
MB TEMPS OF 1 C OVER SAGINAW TO 10 C NEAR OHIO BORDER PER 12Z
EURO)...AND EVEN WOULD NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...COULD SEE FAR SOUTH
REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRYING/LULL IN
ACTIVITY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE INDICATED A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT TOMORROW...WHICH LOOKS TO SET US UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING....AS SECOND WAVE AND
LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
LOOKS TO CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF I-69 CORRIDOR. THE 12Z MODEL
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT...BUT 12Z EURO
REMAINS MOST AGRESSIVE/ADAMANT...AND FEEL CONFIDENT TO GO LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF I-69 TO CATEGORICAL NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. SUBSTANTIAL
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE MERGING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL PROGGED
TO FALL TO ZERO...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP MAXES UNDER 60 DEGREES. IF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MONDAY
NIGHT...FROST CONCERNS WILL RETURN AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S WITH CALM/NEARLY CALM WINDS.

WEAK AND FRAGILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE CLOUDS AROUND WITH A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
OHIO VALLEY SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE ONTARIO
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING
EVIDENCE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SUPPORT CLOSING OFF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS AN
UNPLEASANT WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTED BY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH GUIDANCE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSED SYSTEMS OFTEN END UP BEING SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN
MODEL FORECASTS WHICH ALSO POINTS TO A SHAKY START TO NEXT WEEKEND
AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON
TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...AS PERSISTENT AND
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWS WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD BETWEEN 4
AND 8 FEET. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SPEEDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING. A VERY LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 11 PM...OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AS THE
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND FINALLY TURN LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAINFALL INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS THEN LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY LOOKS TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH SOUTH
OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS RAINFALL WILL PROMPT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER QUICK ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 MAY PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 133 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS
A DETERIORATION IN CEILINGS/VIS AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. RAIN
SHIELD STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST
OHIO IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA NOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPILL
INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. DRY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL INITIALLY KEEP CEILINGS/VIS AT VFR AS
RAIN BEGINS. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ARRIVING AROUND 00Z WILL
THEN QUICKLY DROP CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR AND IFR BY MID-EVENING.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVIER NEAR THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS WHERE A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE...AND EXPECT TO SEE A FEW DIPS TO LIFR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND VERY EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 08Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MBS.

FOR DTW...LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
UPSTREAM RADAR SUPPORTS RAIN BEGINNING AT DTW BETWEEN 20-21Z...WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARRIVING AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE VFR AS RAIN BEGINS AS DRY AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS MUST FIRST BE OVERCOME. A PERIOD OF STRONGER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z...MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT BY 22Z...HIGH AFTER 00Z.

* LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 301733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
133 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


.AVIATION...

HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS
A DETERIORATION IN CEILINGS/VIS AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. RAIN
SHIELD STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST
OHIO IS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA NOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPILL
INTO THE TERMINALS DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. DRY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL INITIALLY KEEP CEILINGS/VIS AT VFR AS
RAIN BEGINS. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ARRIVING AROUND 00Z WILL
THEN QUICKLY DROP CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR AND IFR BY MID-EVENING.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVIER NEAR THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS WHERE A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE...AND EXPECT TO SEE A FEW DIPS TO LIFR
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND VERY EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL
LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 08Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MBS.


FOR DTW...LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
UPSTREAM RADAR SUPPORTS RAIN BEGINNING AT DTW BETWEEN 20-21Z...WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARRIVING AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE VFR AS RAIN BEGINS AS DRY AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS MUST FIRST BE OVERCOME. A PERIOD OF STRONGER FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TONIGHT...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z...MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT BY 22Z...HIGH AFTER 00Z.

* LOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT DTW TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

TODAY...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL
EVENT LOCALLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT CURRENTLY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT JUST UPSTREAM.  WATER VAPOR DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE ATTENDANT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A
CLASSIC APPEARING SETUP AT THE FRONT END...PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY.
RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL LEAVE A SHRINKING WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKY EARLY TODAY.
MODEST RECOVERY TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE GIVEN THE GENERAL
UPWARD INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND SOME ADDED INSOLATION
POTENTIAL /PARTICULARLY NORTH/.  CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A NEUTRAL ADVECTIVE COMPONENT...NETTING A SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVERALL RESPONSE. WITH THAT...STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 MOST LOCALES.

TONIGHT...WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG
WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE
INTO SE MICHIGAN AFTER 20Z.  AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION OF DCVA AND
CONVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGE ON
THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL
LIFTING ACROSS ALL LOCALES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  00Z NAM/ARR/NMM
MODEL SUITE POINT TOWARD A POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC RESPONSE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF SE MICHIGAN BECOMING
FAVORABLY POSITIONED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE
AND DEFORMATION AXIS.  DIMINISHED STABILITY THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL
ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  INSTABILITY NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
THUNDER MENTION...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH
CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION MAY BE SLOW
TO VACATE THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PARENT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS SLOWLY EXIT INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  SUBSTANTIAL
RESIDUAL MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HOLDS ALL LOCALES...WITH POST-SYSTEM NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS REACHING
INTO THE 50S REMAIN ON TARGET.  GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY YET IN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A MIXED SIGNAL ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW
EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME
WINDOW.  POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DCVA WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS WAVE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...POSITIONING YIELDING A GREATER POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGHING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ACTIVE WEEKEND PATTERN. INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO MONDAY
WILL FAVOR A STEADY CLEARING TREND...THE ADDED INSOLATION POTENTIAL
BOOSTING HIGHS BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 60S. MODERATING TREND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING. TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY /MID 60S/.

MARINE...

MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME
WHILE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BECOME ELEVATED IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR SEEING UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 5 AM LOCAL TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT,DEPENDING ON HOW LONG DEFORMATION FORCING LINGERS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 301103
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


.AVIATION...

AREAWIDE VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. WIND WILL HOLD FIRMLY
OUT OF THE EAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE BACKING TO THE NE UPON
PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
RATES 00-06Z...PARTICULARLY IN THE DETROIT AREA...ALONG WITH RAPID
DETERIORATION OF CIGS TO LOW MVFR. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT IFR BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...BEST ESTIMATE FOR START TIME TO PRECIP IS 21Z. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO ANTECEDANT DRY AIR BUT WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE BY 00Z AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. STOUT FLOW OUT OF THE
EASTERLY QUADRANT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT BY 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DISCUSSION...

TODAY...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL
EVENT LOCALLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT CURRENTLY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT JUST UPSTREAM.  WATER VAPOR DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE ATTENDANT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A
CLASSIC APPEARING SETUP AT THE FRONT END...PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY.
RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL LEAVE A SHRINKING WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKY EARLY TODAY.
MODEST RECOVERY TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE GIVEN THE GENERAL
UPWARD INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND SOME ADDED INSOLATION
POTENTIAL /PARTICULARLY NORTH/.  CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A NEUTRAL ADVECTIVE COMPONENT...NETTING A SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVERALL RESPONSE. WITH THAT...STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 MOST LOCALES.

TONIGHT...WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG
WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE
INTO SE MICHIGAN AFTER 20Z.  AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION OF DCVA AND
CONVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGE ON
THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL
LIFTING ACROSS ALL LOCALES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  00Z NAM/ARR/NMM
MODEL SUITE POINT TOWARD A POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC RESPONSE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF SE MICHIGAN BECOMING
FAVORABLY POSITIONED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE
AND DEFORMATION AXIS.  DIMINISHED STABILITY THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL
ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  INSTABILITY NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
THUNDER MENTION...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH
CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION MAY BE SLOW
TO VACATE THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PARENT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS SLOWLY EXIT INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  SUBSTANTIAL
RESIDUAL MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HOLDS ALL LOCALES...WITH POST-SYSTEM NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS REACHING
INTO THE 50S REMAIN ON TARGET.  GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY YET IN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A MIXED SIGNAL ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW
EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME
WINDOW.  POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DCVA WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS WAVE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...POSITIONING YIELDING A GREATER POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGHING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ACTIVE WEEKEND PATTERN. INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO MONDAY
WILL FAVOR A STEADY CLEARING TREND...THE ADDED INSOLATION POTENTIAL
BOOSTING HIGHS BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 60S. MODERATING TREND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING. TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY /MID 60S/.

MARINE...

MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME
WHILE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BECOME ELEVATED IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR SEEING UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 5 AM LOCAL TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT,DEPENDING ON HOW LONG DEFORMATION FORCING LINGERS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 300752
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL
EVENT LOCALLY HEADING INTO TONIGHT CURRENTLY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT JUST UPSTREAM.  WATER VAPOR DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE ATTENDANT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A
CLASSIC APPEARING SETUP AT THE FRONT END...PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE MICHIGAN TODAY.
RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL LEAVE A SHRINKING WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKY EARLY TODAY.
MODEST RECOVERY TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE GIVEN THE GENERAL
UPWARD INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND SOME ADDED INSOLATION
POTENTIAL /PARTICULARLY NORTH/.  CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A NEUTRAL ADVECTIVE COMPONENT...NETTING A SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVERALL RESPONSE. WITH THAT...STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 MOST LOCALES.

TONIGHT...WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG
WING OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE
INTO SE MICHIGAN AFTER 20Z.  AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION OF DCVA AND
CONVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGE ON
THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL
LIFTING ACROSS ALL LOCALES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  00Z NAM/ARR/NMM
MODEL SUITE POINT TOWARD A POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC RESPONSE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...PORTIONS OF SE MICHIGAN BECOMING
FAVORABLY POSITIONED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE
AND DEFORMATION AXIS.  DIMINISHED STABILITY THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL
ADD A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  INSTABILITY NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
THUNDER MENTION...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH
CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION MAY BE SLOW
TO VACATE THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS AS THE PARENT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS SLOWLY EXIT INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  SUBSTANTIAL
RESIDUAL MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HOLDS ALL LOCALES...WITH POST-SYSTEM NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN
RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS REACHING
INTO THE 50S REMAIN ON TARGET.  GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY YET IN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDING A MIXED SIGNAL ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW
EJECTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME
WINDOW.  POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DCVA WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS WAVE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...POSITIONING YIELDING A GREATER POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGHING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ACTIVE WEEKEND PATTERN. INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO MONDAY
WILL FAVOR A STEADY CLEARING TREND...THE ADDED INSOLATION POTENTIAL
BOOSTING HIGHS BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 60S. MODERATING TREND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK RIDGING. TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE VICINITY OF NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY /MID 60S/.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME FRESH AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GUST TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME
WHILE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
BECOME ELEVATED IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE HURON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WIND WILL
FILL IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR SEEING UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 5 AM LOCAL TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT,DEPENDING ON HOW LONG DEFORMATION FORCING LINGERS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE STALLED OUT DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BRING A SLOW CLEAR TREND OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. LATEST PROGS SUPPORT TRAPPED
MOISTURE/STRATUS BELOW 5000 FT AGL...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH RAPID
DISSIPATION THEREAFTER. KEPT WITH THE PESSIMISTIC THEME PROVIDED IN
THE EARLIER TAF FORECASTS. THE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO A STABLE EAST WIND. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN DEGRADE DURIGN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS AN
ACTIVE AND MOISTURE LADEN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE
AND EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00-06Z.

FOR DTW...A LIGHT AND VARIABLE EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TRHOUGH
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO
INCREASING RAIN ACTIVITY AND AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
  NIGHT. LOW SATURDAY...HIGH AGAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY
  EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 300405
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016


.AVIATION...

THE STALLED OUT DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BRING A SLOW CLEAR TREND OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. LATEST PROGS SUPPORT TRAPPED
MOISTURE/STRATUS BELOW 5000 FT AGL...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH RAPID
DISSIPATION THEREAFTER. KEPT WITH THE PESSIMISTIC THEME PROVIDED IN
THE EARLIER TAF FORECASTS. THE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO A STABLE EAST WIND. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN DEGRADE DURIGN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS AN
ACTIVE AND MOISTURE LADEN WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE
AND EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00-06Z.

FOR DTW...A LIGHT AND VARIABLE EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TRHOUGH
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO
INCREASING RAIN ACTIVITY AND AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
  NIGHT. LOW SATURDAY...HIGH AGAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

DISCUSSION...

UPPER WAVE/COLD POOL (-22 C AT 500 MB) NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT IN THE POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE/NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
(CLOUDS ARE ALREADY TRENDING/BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON).
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING INTO
THE 30 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLIPPING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST POTENTIAL...BUT NOT REAL COMFORTABLE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...NORTHERN THUMB REGION STANDS GOOD CHANCE
FOR TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...BUT GROWING SEASON HAS NOT STARTED
THAT FAR NORTH...AND THUS FROST HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED JUST FOR M-
59/I-69 CORRIDORS...FOR MINS PREDOMINATELY IN 32-36 DEGREE
RANGE...AROUND 30 DEGREES SOUTHERN THUMB REGION.

EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES. GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM EJECTING UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND AND AFTER 00Z...AS POSITIVELY
TILTED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY EVENING...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL FOR MAJORITY/ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MAKES IT TO THE
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...WITH SHOWALTER INDEX ALSO TRENDING TOWARD
ZERO RIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...YIELDING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AS 850 MB SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIPS
NORTH JUST PAST THE BORDER ON SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE
50S DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN AS SURFACE LOW(S)
TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...PER 12Z EURO.

DRYING/CLEARING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AROUND 12Z MONDAY...DELIVERING ANOTHER SOLID SHOT OF COLD AIR (850
MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND ZERO). AT THIS POINT...ENOUGH
CLOUDS/NORTHEAST GRADIENT TO PREVENT FROST EVEN WITH EXPECTED
MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM. THIS WILL START MONDAY OFF WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORMAL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS THEN MODERATING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS THAT
SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CENTERED ON THE
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME
INCONSISTENCY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD SURGE AMONG THE MODELS
BUT NONE SUGGEST CONDITIONS AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS THAT HAS
KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE WEDNESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR A DRY END
OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

MARINE...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP FAIRLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 25
KNOTS. STRONGER AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LENGTH OF
LAKE HURON (INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY) AND EAST FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE...WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH
CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-94. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 292344
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
744 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...

THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LOCKED A STRETCHING DEFORMATION AXIS IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...VARIOUS SKY FRACTION AND
SLOWLY EVOLVING TREND OF THE MVFR/VFR CLOUD IS PROBABLE TO LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WAS RELATIVELY PESSIMISTIC WITH
KEEPING CLOUD IN UNTIL 09Z TONIGHT AT THE DETROIT TAF SITES...WITH A
BETTER SUPPORT FOR A CLEARING NORTH OF THE DETROIT SUBURBS.
OTHERWISE...MODEL TRENDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FOR SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING OF
MVFR CIG HEIGHT DEVELOPMENT AND PRECIPITATION DEGRADATION OF
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

FOR DTW...LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER LIGHT
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH VFR CIGS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT ADVECTION SETUP AND TRAPPED LOWER COLUMN
MOISTURE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
  NIGHT. LOW SATURDAY...HIGH AGAIN BY THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

DISCUSSION...

UPPER WAVE/COLD POOL (-22 C AT 500 MB) NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT IN THE POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE/NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
(CLOUDS ARE ALREADY TRENDING/BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON).
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING INTO
THE 30 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLIPPING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST POTENTIAL...BUT NOT REAL COMFORTABLE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...NORTHERN THUMB REGION STANDS GOOD CHANCE
FOR TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...BUT GROWING SEASON HAS NOT STARTED
THAT FAR NORTH...AND THUS FROST HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED JUST FOR M-
59/I-69 CORRIDORS...FOR MINS PREDOMINATELY IN 32-36 DEGREE
RANGE...AROUND 30 DEGREES SOUTHERN THUMB REGION.

EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES. GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM EJECTING UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND AND AFTER 00Z...AS POSITIVELY
TILTED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY EVENING...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL FOR MAJORITY/ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MAKES IT TO THE
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...WITH SHOWALTER INDEX ALSO TRENDING TOWARD
ZERO RIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...YIELDING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AS 850 MB SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIPS
NORTH JUST PAST THE BORDER ON SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE
50S DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN AS SURFACE LOW(S)
TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...PER 12Z EURO.

DRYING/CLEARING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AROUND 12Z MONDAY...DELIVERING ANOTHER SOLID SHOT OF COLD AIR (850
MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND ZERO). AT THIS POINT...ENOUGH
CLOUDS/NORTHEAST GRADIENT TO PREVENT FROST EVEN WITH EXPECTED
MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM. THIS WILL START MONDAY OFF WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORMAL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS THEN MODERATING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS THAT
SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CENTERED ON THE
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME
INCONSISTENCY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD SURGE AMONG THE MODELS
BUT NONE SUGGEST CONDITIONS AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS THAT HAS
KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE WEDNESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR A DRY END
OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

MARINE...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP FAIRLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 25
KNOTS. STRONGER AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LENGTH OF
LAKE HURON (INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY) AND EAST FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE...WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH
CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-94. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ060>063-
     068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 291906
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER WAVE/COLD POOL (-22 C AT 500 MB) NOW ENTERING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT IN THE POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE/NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
(CLOUDS ARE ALREADY TRENDING/BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON).
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING INTO
THE 30 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SLIPPING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST POTENTIAL...BUT NOT REAL COMFORTABLE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...NORTHERN THUMB REGION STANDS GOOD CHANCE
FOR TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...BUT GROWING SEASON HAS NOT STARTED
THAT FAR NORTH...AND THUS FROST HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED JUST FOR M-
59/I-69 CORRIDORS...FOR MINS PREDOMINATELY IN 32-36 DEGREE
RANGE...AROUND 30 DEGREES SOUTHERN THUMB REGION.

EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES. GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM EJECTING UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND AND AFTER 00Z...AS POSITIVELY
TILTED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY EVENING...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL FOR MAJORITY/ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MAKES IT TO THE
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...WITH SHOWALTER INDEX ALSO TRENDING TOWARD
ZERO RIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...YIELDING SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AS 850 MB SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIPS
NORTH JUST PAST THE BORDER ON SUNDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE
50S DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN AS SURFACE LOW(S)
TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...PER 12Z EURO.

DRYING/CLEARING TREND EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AROUND 12Z MONDAY...DELIVERING ANOTHER SOLID SHOT OF COLD AIR (850
MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND ZERO). AT THIS POINT...ENOUGH
CLOUDS/NORTHEAST GRADIENT TO PREVENT FROST EVEN WITH EXPECTED
MINS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM. THIS WILL START MONDAY OFF WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORMAL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS THEN MODERATING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS THAT
SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION CENTERED ON THE
WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME
INCONSISTENCY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD SURGE AMONG THE MODELS
BUT NONE SUGGEST CONDITIONS AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS THAT HAS
KEPT READINGS IN THE 40S OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE WEDNESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR A DRY END
OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

&&

.MARINE...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP FAIRLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE...BUT GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 25
KNOTS. STRONGER AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LENGTH OF
LAKE HURON (INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY) AND EAST FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE MAY
NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AS THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE...WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING LARGE WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 0.25 INCHES SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR...WITH
CLOSER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-94. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 209 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS
BEEN ERODING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS...WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN NEAR PTK AND FNT. ALL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PUTTING ALL SITES IN
VFR BY 20Z. SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER WAVE
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT DEGREE OF CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PROMOTE FOG OR BR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR DTW...DRY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW CEILING TO RISE TO 3000
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD
PREVENT LOW CEILINGS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE FROM SPREADING
INTO THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN FINALLY TO THE EAST BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS SPEEDS WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z. MEDIUM
  OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ060>063-
     068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/BT
MARINE.......HLO
HYDROLOGY....HLO
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 291809
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
209 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS
BEEN ERODING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS...WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN NEAR PTK AND FNT. ALL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PUTTING ALL SITES IN
VFR BY 20Z. SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER WAVE
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT DEGREE OF CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PROMOTE FOG OR BR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR DTW...DRY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW CEILING TO RISE TO 3000
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD
PREVENT LOW CEILINGS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE FROM SPREADING
INTO THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN FINALLY TO THE EAST BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS SPEEDS WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z. MEDIUM
  OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

DISCUSSION...

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK DEFORMATION
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ANCHORED JUST
UPSTREAM.  THIS PERTURBED MID LEVEL FIELD SUSTAINING SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS...ABOVE A LOW LEVEL PROFILE CHARACTERIZED AS
SEASONABLY COOL UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.  A COOL AND
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL HOLD TODAY...REINFORCED BY THE EASTWARD
EJECTION OF THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOLID
INCREASE IN DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...WITH A
NOTED SPIKE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL COLD POOL.  AN ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FROM MID MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE PROJECTS A SLIGHTLY
GREATER RESPONSE ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA /BETWEEN I-69
AND I-94/...STRONGER SIGNAL OF CONVERGENCE ALIGNING ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR.  PRECIPITATION AND CORRESPONDING HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL AGAIN ACT TO RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE OF AN
ALREADY COOL RESIDENT THERMAL PROFILE /850 MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/.
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOWER 50S.

EMERGING WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND GENERAL DRYING THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.  A PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CAP
THE OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING RESPONSE...BUT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
THE EXISTING COLDER PROFILE WILL STILL BRING LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE 30S NEARLY ALL LOCALES.  SOME POCKETS OF FROST NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION /PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB/...BUT AGAIN THE GRADIENT
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL LAGGING ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB...WHERE
FROST WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...WILL REFRAIN FROM A MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING AND CORRESPONDING DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW...TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...WILL
PRESENT A BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.  SOME OF EARLY DAY
SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
INCREASING THICKNESSES AND THE ADDED INSOLATION WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THRU THE PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PARKED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ELICIT A SOLID LOW/MID LEVEL RESPONSE
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THIS PROCESS TARGETING
SE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  THE REGION WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING SHOT OF THE ATTENDANT NORTHEAST SURGING MOISTURE PLUME /PW
NEAR 1 INCH/ BACKED BY A FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL JET ARCING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  UPGLIDE ALONG THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE WILL DRIVE THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EFFECTIVE
RAINFALL AXIS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A TRANSITION TOWARD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW RACING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY YET ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOTH
THE BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT CERTAINLY GROWING
CONFIDENCE ON WITNESSING A SOLID PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY NIGHT.  CORRESPONDING NUDGE UPWARD IN POPS
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.

SHOWERS MAY REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS LINGERING
DEFORMATION SLOWLY RELEASES EASTWARD.   REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO TAKE STEP BACK FROM THOSE NOTED SATURDAY...UNDER RENEWED
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS.  THE
SUPPRESSED UPPER HEIGHTS AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING EASES THROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLER TREND.  READINGS SUNDAY BROADLY
DISTRIBUTED IN THE 50S.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. A WEAK
LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL THEN PROVIDE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 291809
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
209 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS
BEEN ERODING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE DETROIT-AREA TERMINALS...WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN NEAR PTK AND FNT. ALL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PUTTING ALL SITES IN
VFR BY 20Z. SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER WAVE
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT DEGREE OF CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PROMOTE FOG OR BR DEVELOPMENT.

FOR DTW...DRY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW CEILING TO RISE TO 3000
FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD
PREVENT LOW CEILINGS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE FROM SPREADING
INTO THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN FINALLY TO THE EAST BY LATE
THIS EVENING AS SPEEDS WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 00Z. MEDIUM
  OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

DISCUSSION...

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK DEFORMATION
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ANCHORED JUST
UPSTREAM.  THIS PERTURBED MID LEVEL FIELD SUSTAINING SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS...ABOVE A LOW LEVEL PROFILE CHARACTERIZED AS
SEASONABLY COOL UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.  A COOL AND
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL HOLD TODAY...REINFORCED BY THE EASTWARD
EJECTION OF THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOLID
INCREASE IN DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...WITH A
NOTED SPIKE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL COLD POOL.  AN ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FROM MID MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE PROJECTS A SLIGHTLY
GREATER RESPONSE ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA /BETWEEN I-69
AND I-94/...STRONGER SIGNAL OF CONVERGENCE ALIGNING ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR.  PRECIPITATION AND CORRESPONDING HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL AGAIN ACT TO RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE OF AN
ALREADY COOL RESIDENT THERMAL PROFILE /850 MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/.
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOWER 50S.

EMERGING WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND GENERAL DRYING THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.  A PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CAP
THE OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING RESPONSE...BUT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
THE EXISTING COLDER PROFILE WILL STILL BRING LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE 30S NEARLY ALL LOCALES.  SOME POCKETS OF FROST NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION /PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB/...BUT AGAIN THE GRADIENT
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL LAGGING ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB...WHERE
FROST WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...WILL REFRAIN FROM A MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING AND CORRESPONDING DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW...TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...WILL
PRESENT A BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.  SOME OF EARLY DAY
SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
INCREASING THICKNESSES AND THE ADDED INSOLATION WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THRU THE PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PARKED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ELICIT A SOLID LOW/MID LEVEL RESPONSE
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THIS PROCESS TARGETING
SE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  THE REGION WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING SHOT OF THE ATTENDANT NORTHEAST SURGING MOISTURE PLUME /PW
NEAR 1 INCH/ BACKED BY A FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL JET ARCING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  UPGLIDE ALONG THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE WILL DRIVE THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EFFECTIVE
RAINFALL AXIS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A TRANSITION TOWARD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW RACING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY YET ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOTH
THE BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT CERTAINLY GROWING
CONFIDENCE ON WITNESSING A SOLID PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY NIGHT.  CORRESPONDING NUDGE UPWARD IN POPS
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.

SHOWERS MAY REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS LINGERING
DEFORMATION SLOWLY RELEASES EASTWARD.   REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO TAKE STEP BACK FROM THOSE NOTED SATURDAY...UNDER RENEWED
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS.  THE
SUPPRESSED UPPER HEIGHTS AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING EASES THROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLER TREND.  READINGS SUNDAY BROADLY
DISTRIBUTED IN THE 50S.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. A WEAK
LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL THEN PROVIDE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 291237
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
837 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD AS SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WORK THROUGH MORNING. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO BE FOCUSED IN THE KFNT/KPTK CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF DIP TO MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ENCROACHING MVFR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT DRY NE FLOW IN THE LOWER-LEVELS HAS KEPT EASTWARD
PROGRESS HALTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, A TREND THAT SHOULD
LARGELY CONTINUE. WINDS REMAINS OUT OF THE EASTERLY QUADRANT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

FOR DTW...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BELOW 5KFT IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANY
DIP TO MVFR SHOULD BE BRIEF. EAST WIND WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 15 KTS EARLY SATURDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

DISCUSSION...

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK DEFORMATION
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ANCHORED JUST
UPSTREAM.  THIS PERTURBED MID LEVEL FIELD SUSTAINING SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS...ABOVE A LOW LEVEL PROFILE CHARACTERIZED AS
SEASONABLY COOL UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.  A COOL AND
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL HOLD TODAY...REINFORCED BY THE EASTWARD
EJECTION OF THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOLID
INCREASE IN DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...WITH A
NOTED SPIKE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL COLD POOL.  AN ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FROM MID MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE PROJECTS A SLIGHTLY
GREATER RESPONSE ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA /BETWEEN I-69
AND I-94/...STRONGER SIGNAL OF CONVERGENCE ALIGNING ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR.  PRECIPITATION AND CORRESPONDING HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL AGAIN ACT TO RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE OF AN
ALREADY COOL RESIDENT THERMAL PROFILE /850 MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/.
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOWER 50S.

EMERGING WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND GENERAL DRYING THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.  A PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CAP
THE OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING RESPONSE...BUT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
THE EXISTING COLDER PROFILE WILL STILL BRING LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE 30S NEARLY ALL LOCALES.  SOME POCKETS OF FROST NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION /PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB/...BUT AGAIN THE GRADIENT
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL LAGGING ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB...WHERE
FROST WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...WILL REFRAIN FROM A MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING AND CORRESPONDING DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW...TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...WILL
PRESENT A BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.  SOME OF EARLY DAY
SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
INCREASING THICKNESSES AND THE ADDED INSOLATION WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THRU THE PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PARKED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ELICIT A SOLID LOW/MID LEVEL RESPONSE
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THIS PROCESS TARGETING
SE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  THE REGION WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING SHOT OF THE ATTENDANT NORTHEAST SURGING MOISTURE PLUME /PW
NEAR 1 INCH/ BACKED BY A FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL JET ARCING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  UPGLIDE ALONG THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE WILL DRIVE THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EFFECTIVE
RAINFALL AXIS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A TRANSITION TOWARD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW RACING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY YET ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOTH
THE BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT CERTAINLY GROWING
CONFIDENCE ON WITNESSING A SOLID PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY NIGHT.  CORRESPONDING NUDGE UPWARD IN POPS
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.

SHOWERS MAY REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS LINGERING
DEFORMATION SLOWLY RELEASES EASTWARD.   REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO TAKE STEP BACK FROM THOSE NOTED SATURDAY...UNDER RENEWED
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS.  THE
SUPPRESSED UPPER HEIGHTS AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING EASES THROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLER TREND.  READINGS SUNDAY BROADLY
DISTRIBUTED IN THE 50S.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. A WEAK
LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL THEN PROVIDE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 290746
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK DEFORMATION
EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ANCHORED JUST
UPSTREAM.  THIS PERTURBED MID LEVEL FIELD SUSTAINING SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS...ABOVE A LOW LEVEL PROFILE CHARACTERIZED AS
SEASONABLY COOL UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW.  A COOL AND
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL HOLD TODAY...REINFORCED BY THE EASTWARD
EJECTION OF THE AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOLID
INCREASE IN DCVA AND CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...WITH A
NOTED SPIKE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL COLD POOL.  AN ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FROM MID MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE PROJECTS A SLIGHTLY
GREATER RESPONSE ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA /BETWEEN I-69
AND I-94/...STRONGER SIGNAL OF CONVERGENCE ALIGNING ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR.  PRECIPITATION AND CORRESPONDING HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL AGAIN ACT TO RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE OF AN
ALREADY COOL RESIDENT THERMAL PROFILE /850 MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING/.
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOWER 50S.

EMERGING WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND GENERAL DRYING THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.  A PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CAP
THE OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING RESPONSE...BUT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
THE EXISTING COLDER PROFILE WILL STILL BRING LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE 30S NEARLY ALL LOCALES.  SOME POCKETS OF FROST NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION /PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB/...BUT AGAIN THE GRADIENT
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL LAGGING ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB...WHERE
FROST WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...WILL REFRAIN FROM A MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING AND CORRESPONDING DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW...TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...WILL
PRESENT A BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.  SOME OF EARLY DAY
SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
INCREASING THICKNESSES AND THE ADDED INSOLATION WILL BRING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THRU THE PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PARKED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ELICIT A SOLID LOW/MID LEVEL RESPONSE
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THIS PROCESS TARGETING
SE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  THE REGION WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING SHOT OF THE ATTENDANT NORTHEAST SURGING MOISTURE PLUME /PW
NEAR 1 INCH/ BACKED BY A FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL JET ARCING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  UPGLIDE ALONG THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACE WILL DRIVE THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EFFECTIVE
RAINFALL AXIS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A TRANSITION TOWARD MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW RACING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY YET ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOTH
THE BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT CERTAINLY GROWING
CONFIDENCE ON WITNESSING A SOLID PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF SATURDAY NIGHT.  CORRESPONDING NUDGE UPWARD IN POPS
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.

SHOWERS MAY REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS LINGERING
DEFORMATION SLOWLY RELEASES EASTWARD.   REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO TAKE STEP BACK FROM THOSE NOTED SATURDAY...UNDER RENEWED
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS.  THE
SUPPRESSED UPPER HEIGHTS AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING EASES THROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOLER TREND.  READINGS SUNDAY BROADLY
DISTRIBUTED IN THE 50S.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. A WEAK
LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL THEN PROVIDE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ELEVATED WAVE CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1232 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING THE SAGINAW
BAY REGION. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CIGS TO HOLD THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND DCVA IMMEDIATELY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE 13-19Z TIME WINDOW. THE BEST SIGNAL FOR ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO APPEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN...LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WITH PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR DTW...PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS AT VFR BOTH IN RESPECT TO CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 290432
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1232 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...

THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING THE SAGINAW
BAY REGION. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR CIGS TO HOLD THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND DCVA IMMEDIATELY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE 13-19Z TIME WINDOW. THE BEST SIGNAL FOR ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO APPEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN...LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WITH PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR DTW...PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS AT VFR BOTH IN RESPECT TO CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

SHEARED OUT UPPER LEVEL WAVE/PV ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING
WEST BACK TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE MAIN
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL RESIDES. WHAT`S LEFT OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL
TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...BOOTED OFF TO THE EAST BY
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO
TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT MOISTURE
SURGE/SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW...AS THEIR
APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING AS 700-500 MB COLD POOL
OF -13 C TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS WE ARE/BECOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT
POTENTIALLY STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FGEN TO KEEP A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS GOING AFTER 00Z.

FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT OF DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MINS MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES..IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. INCREASING LATE APRIL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S TOMORROW...AND NEAR
60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE...HOVERING AROUND THE UPPER 50S...WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT THE THERMAL TROUGH FROM MODERATING TOO MUCH UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STRONG WAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY THERE WILL ONLY BE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

MARINE...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST
AND LEAVE A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS WHILE
MAINTAINING NE WIND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED. WAVE
HEIGHT WILL RESPOND IN KIND AND DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THEN REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND BRING A NEAR
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED
OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS AGAIN WHILE MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND WILL
AFFECT ALL AREAS. WAVE HEIGHT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BY SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...SF/DRK
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 282335
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
735 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016


.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY STRETCHING DEFORMATION AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF OCCURRENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
TONIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING POSSIBLE LOWERING OF CIGS THIS EVENING
AS OUTGOING RADIATIVE COOLING INCREASES...BUT ATTM MODEL DATA IS
FAIRLY FIRM IN KEEPING CIGS HEIGHTS AT VFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL FINALLY EJECT WEST TO EAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND DCVA IMMEDIATELY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN FROM MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ATTM...THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN...LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WITH PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR DTW...PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS AT VFR BOTH IN RESPECT TO CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS TONIGHT.
WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING FOR ANY TRENDS THAT MAY
CHANGE THIS THINKING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING CIGS OR
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 339 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

SHEARED OUT UPPER LEVEL WAVE/PV ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING
WEST BACK TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE MAIN
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL RESIDES. WHAT`S LEFT OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL
TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...BOOTED OFF TO THE EAST BY
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO
TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT MOISTURE
SURGE/SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW...AS THEIR
APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING AS 700-500 MB COLD POOL
OF -13 C TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS WE ARE/BECOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT
POTENTIALLY STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FGEN TO KEEP A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS GOING AFTER 00Z.

FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT OF DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MINS MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES..IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. INCREASING LATE APRIL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S TOMORROW...AND NEAR
60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE...HOVERING AROUND THE UPPER 50S...WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT THE THERMAL TROUGH FROM MODERATING TOO MUCH UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STRONG WAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY THERE WILL ONLY BE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

MARINE...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST
AND LEAVE A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS WHILE
MAINTAINING NE WIND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED. WAVE
HEIGHT WILL RESPOND IN KIND AND DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THEN REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND BRING A NEAR
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED
OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS AGAIN WHILE MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND WILL
AFFECT ALL AREAS. WAVE HEIGHT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BY SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF/DRK
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 281939
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
339 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHEARED OUT UPPER LEVEL WAVE/PV ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING
WEST BACK TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHERE THE MAIN
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL RESIDES. WHAT`S LEFT OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL
TRACK THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW...BOOTED OFF TO THE EAST BY
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO
TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE NEXT MOISTURE
SURGE/SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW...AS THEIR
APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING AS 700-500 MB COLD POOL
OF -13 C TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT JUST
LOW CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS WE ARE/BECOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT
POTENTIALLY STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FGEN TO KEEP A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS GOING AFTER 00Z.

FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED TEMPERATURES...AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT OF DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MINS MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES..IN LINE WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. INCREASING LATE APRIL INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S TOMORROW...AND NEAR
60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE...HOVERING AROUND THE UPPER 50S...WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT THE THERMAL TROUGH FROM MODERATING TOO MUCH UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STRONG WAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COLD
FRONT DROPPING THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY THERE WILL ONLY BE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE EAST
AND LEAVE A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS WHILE
MAINTAINING NE WIND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED. WAVE
HEIGHT WILL RESPOND IN KIND AND DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THEN REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND BRING A NEAR
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED
OVER SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS AGAIN WHILE MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND WILL
AFFECT ALL AREAS. WAVE HEIGHT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
BY SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IS
SCHEDULED TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER MBS...FNT...AND PTK. THESE WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN DURING EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE AT HOLDING BACK MVFR CEILING ALONG
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
ABOVE 5 KNOTS WILL ALSO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AROUND
SUNRISE DESPITE WET GROUND LEFT OVER FROM SHOWERS TODAY. VFR WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY MID MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE FOR DTW OPERATIONS FORCING NE TRAFFIC FLOW INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SAME WIND PATTERN WILL HOLD BACK MVFR CEILING BUT NOT
QUITE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CEILING ABOVE 5 KFT WHICH WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL BREAKS
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/DRK
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 281710
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER MBS...FNT...AND PTK. THESE WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN DURING EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE AT HOLDING BACK MVFR CEILING ALONG
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
ABOVE 5 KNOTS WILL ALSO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AROUND
SUNRISE DESPITE WET GROUND LEFT OVER FROM SHOWERS TODAY. VFR WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY MID MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE FOR DTW OPERATIONS FORCING NE TRAFFIC FLOW INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SAME WIND PATTERN WILL HOLD BACK MVFR CEILING BUT NOT
QUITE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CEILING ABOVE 5 KFT WHICH WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL BREAKS
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

RAIN SHOWERS TOOK THEIR TIME GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT
LOWER LEVELS WERE RATHER DRY PER THE OOZ DTX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING PRECIP...DRIER LOW LEVELS AND
BETTER FORCING TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT SUBDUED.
LATEST NAM IS SHOWING LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  LATEST HRRR IS ALSO JUST
ADVERTISING SCATTERED PRECIP WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THINGS START TO DRY OUT AS RIDING TAKES OVER.
THIS RIDING WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN.  TODAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPS DO START TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE 60S ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE COOL SIDE.

MARINE...

STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES
OVER LAKE HURON TODAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
WAVES BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND REMAIN POISED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS TO DECREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH
WAVE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...MUCH LIKE THE
EVENT TODAY.

HYDROLOGY...

AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE DRY LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...SOME
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69...MAY RECEIVE UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 281710
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROAD BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOST CONCENTRATED OVER MBS...FNT...AND PTK. THESE WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN DURING EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW PERSISTENT NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE AT HOLDING BACK MVFR CEILING ALONG
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
ABOVE 5 KNOTS WILL ALSO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AROUND
SUNRISE DESPITE WET GROUND LEFT OVER FROM SHOWERS TODAY. VFR WILL
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY MID MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW... EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE FOR DTW OPERATIONS FORCING NE TRAFFIC FLOW INTO THE
EVENING. THIS SAME WIND PATTERN WILL HOLD BACK MVFR CEILING BUT NOT
QUITE BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CEILING ABOVE 5 KFT WHICH WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL BREAKS
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

RAIN SHOWERS TOOK THEIR TIME GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT
LOWER LEVELS WERE RATHER DRY PER THE OOZ DTX SOUNDING LAST NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING PRECIP...DRIER LOW LEVELS AND
BETTER FORCING TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT SUBDUED.
LATEST NAM IS SHOWING LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH
OTHER MODELS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  LATEST HRRR IS ALSO JUST
ADVERTISING SCATTERED PRECIP WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THINGS START TO DRY OUT AS RIDING TAKES OVER.
THIS RIDING WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN.  TODAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE UPPER 40S. TEMPS DO START TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE 60S ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE COOL SIDE.

MARINE...

STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES
OVER LAKE HURON TODAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
WAVES BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE AT TIMES OVER MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. THIS LOW WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND REMAIN POISED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS TO DECREASE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OR SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH
WAVE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...MUCH LIKE THE
EVENT TODAY.

HYDROLOGY...

AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE DRY LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...SOME
LOCATIONS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-69...MAY RECEIVE UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441-442.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





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