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000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 022314
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
714 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

SHRAS/TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE FORECAST BEGINS. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NNW WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FROM GUST
FRONT...KDET/KDTW/KYIP ALL SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY TRANQUIL EVENING FOR
THE MOST PART. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR BR EARLY THURSDAY AM
WITH VSBYS GENERALLY RANGING 3-5 SM. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTN. WILL FORGO IN TERMINALS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021923
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA E POTENTIAL IS IN PLACE OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
RESIDENCE OVER MUCH IF NOT ALL OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THING IS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS BEING TAKEN
OVER ALL AREAS...BUT PARTICULALRY THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE ARE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONS OF SFC DEWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. NOT SUPRISING THEN TO SEE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BOTH IN THE 12Z RAOBS AND ALSO IN THIS AFTERNOONS MESOANALYSIS.
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HIDING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PROBABLY KEEPING ASPECT RATIO OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ON THE SMALLER SIDE. INCREASED POPS TO A MID-HIGH CHANCE FOR
THE SAGINAW VALLEY/SAGINAW BAY VICINITY GIVEN RECENT TREND ON RADAR.
CURRENT CAPES WARRANT ATTENTION WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
AND THE ML VARIETY AT 3000 J/KG. VERTICAL VELOCITY POTENTIAL FROM
CAPE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPATION LOADING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TALLEST OF STORMS. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE A TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE U.P. WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AS IT CRESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT.
DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT FOCUSED CVA
DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER OVER WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS CROSSING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THURSDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH
MODELS ALSO KEYING IN ON A SURGE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. WARM MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS H700-500 UPPER
COLD POOL CROSSES THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WARM MOIST AIRMASS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SB CAPE VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AT/BELOW 10 MPH...TALL
SKINNY CAPE...AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...BUT STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S.

FORECAST MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CAUSING IT TO
REMAIN OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EVEN RETROGRADE BACK SLIGHTLY WEST
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE STARTS TO
DAMPEN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO ENSURE A HOT AND
HUMID LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL EXIST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WHICH ARGUES FOR ENTRY LEVEL CHANCE POPS IN THE WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z GFS/EURO DIFFER ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
LABOR DAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO NOTHING MORE THAN ENTRY
LEVEL CHANCE POPS FOR LABOR DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT STARTING OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT AND ENDING OVER LAKE
ERIE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON
FRIDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ALSO BUILDING IN...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....HLO/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021727
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1219 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED THIS MORNING ALONG AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED GRADIENT
OF MIDLEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE THAT WASHED IN FROM
WISCONSIN. STEEP 925-850MB LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z KDTX WERE
ENOUGH TO AID PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS IN GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OBSERVATIONAL
DATASETS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND INSOLATION THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE QUESTION MOVING FORWARD CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDES PINNING DOWN FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAN
FORECAST FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THE MCS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN U.P. RAISES
CONCERN BUT NWP DATA SUGGESTS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FORCING WILL
KEEP IT REMOVED FROM SEMICH. CAMS...AND RAP/HRRR ADVERTISES A
PEAK HEATING INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR CONVECTION. CURRENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS OFFERS SUPPORT TO THIS THINKING WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
LOWER PENINSULA. NO TANGIBLE EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. FOCUS WILL BE ON INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
BETTER FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SLOW STORM MOTION RAISES A
CONCERN FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION LOADING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THREAT OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021727
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1219 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED THIS MORNING ALONG AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED GRADIENT
OF MIDLEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE THAT WASHED IN FROM
WISCONSIN. STEEP 925-850MB LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z KDTX WERE
ENOUGH TO AID PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS IN GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OBSERVATIONAL
DATASETS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND INSOLATION THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE QUESTION MOVING FORWARD CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDES PINNING DOWN FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAN
FORECAST FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THE MCS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN U.P. RAISES
CONCERN BUT NWP DATA SUGGESTS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FORCING WILL
KEEP IT REMOVED FROM SEMICH. CAMS...AND RAP/HRRR ADVERTISES A
PEAK HEATING INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR CONVECTION. CURRENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS OFFERS SUPPORT TO THIS THINKING WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
LOWER PENINSULA. NO TANGIBLE EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. FOCUS WILL BE ON INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
BETTER FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SLOW STORM MOTION RAISES A
CONCERN FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION LOADING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THREAT OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021727
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1219 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED THIS MORNING ALONG AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED GRADIENT
OF MIDLEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE THAT WASHED IN FROM
WISCONSIN. STEEP 925-850MB LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z KDTX WERE
ENOUGH TO AID PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS IN GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OBSERVATIONAL
DATASETS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND INSOLATION THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE QUESTION MOVING FORWARD CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDES PINNING DOWN FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAN
FORECAST FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THE MCS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN U.P. RAISES
CONCERN BUT NWP DATA SUGGESTS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FORCING WILL
KEEP IT REMOVED FROM SEMICH. CAMS...AND RAP/HRRR ADVERTISES A
PEAK HEATING INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR CONVECTION. CURRENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS OFFERS SUPPORT TO THIS THINKING WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
LOWER PENINSULA. NO TANGIBLE EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. FOCUS WILL BE ON INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
BETTER FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SLOW STORM MOTION RAISES A
CONCERN FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION LOADING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THREAT OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021727
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
127 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

DAYTIME HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-02Z...OVER PORTIONS OF MID
MICHIGAN AND THE SAGINAW BAY REGION. QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST ATTM. UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH HIGHER FOR FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CLOUD DISSIPATION
THIS EVENING WITH MUGGY WEATHER LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AT DTW...A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-02Z. VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PRECLUDES AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1219 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED THIS MORNING ALONG AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED GRADIENT
OF MIDLEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE THAT WASHED IN FROM
WISCONSIN. STEEP 925-850MB LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z KDTX WERE
ENOUGH TO AID PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS IN GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OBSERVATIONAL
DATASETS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND INSOLATION THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE QUESTION MOVING FORWARD CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDES PINNING DOWN FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAN
FORECAST FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THE MCS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN U.P. RAISES
CONCERN BUT NWP DATA SUGGESTS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FORCING WILL
KEEP IT REMOVED FROM SEMICH. CAMS...AND RAP/HRRR ADVERTISES A
PEAK HEATING INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR CONVECTION. CURRENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS OFFERS SUPPORT TO THIS THINKING WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
LOWER PENINSULA. NO TANGIBLE EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. FOCUS WILL BE ON INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
BETTER FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SLOW STORM MOTION RAISES A
CONCERN FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION LOADING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THREAT OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021619
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1219 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED THIS MORNING ALONG AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED GRADIENT
OF MIDLEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE THAT WASHED IN FROM
WISCONSIN. STEEP 925-850MB LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z KDTX WERE
ENOUGH TO AID PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS IN GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OBSERVATIONAL
DATASETS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND INSOLATION THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE QUESTION MOVING FORWARD CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDES PINNING DOWN FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAN
FORECAST FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THE MCS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN U.P. RAISES
CONCERN BUT NWP DATA SUGGESTS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FORCING WILL
KEEP IT REMOVED FROM SEMICH. CAMS...AND RAP/HRRR ADVERTISES A
PEAK HEATING INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR CONVECTION. CURRENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS OFFERS SUPPORT TO THIS THINKING WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
LOWER PENINSULA. NO TANGIBLE EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. FOCUS WILL BE ON INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
BETTER FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SLOW STORM MOTION RAISES A
CONCERN FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION LOADING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THREAT OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANY SHALLOW MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.
NOTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER COVERAGE
OF VFR DIURNAL CU FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE
AUGMENTED BY A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE REGION.  LOWER
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT ONE OR
MORE TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A DEFINED MENTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021619
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1219 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED THIS MORNING ALONG AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED GRADIENT
OF MIDLEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE THAT WASHED IN FROM
WISCONSIN. STEEP 925-850MB LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z KDTX WERE
ENOUGH TO AID PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS IN GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OBSERVATIONAL
DATASETS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND INSOLATION THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE QUESTION MOVING FORWARD CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDES PINNING DOWN FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAN
FORECAST FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THE MCS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN U.P. RAISES
CONCERN BUT NWP DATA SUGGESTS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FORCING WILL
KEEP IT REMOVED FROM SEMICH. CAMS...AND RAP/HRRR ADVERTISES A
PEAK HEATING INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR CONVECTION. CURRENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS OFFERS SUPPORT TO THIS THINKING WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
LOWER PENINSULA. NO TANGIBLE EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. FOCUS WILL BE ON INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
BETTER FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SLOW STORM MOTION RAISES A
CONCERN FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION LOADING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THREAT OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANY SHALLOW MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.
NOTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER COVERAGE
OF VFR DIURNAL CU FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE
AUGMENTED BY A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE REGION.  LOWER
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT ONE OR
MORE TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A DEFINED MENTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021619
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1219 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED THIS MORNING ALONG AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED GRADIENT
OF MIDLEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE THAT WASHED IN FROM
WISCONSIN. STEEP 925-850MB LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z KDTX WERE
ENOUGH TO AID PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS IN GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OBSERVATIONAL
DATASETS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND INSOLATION THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE QUESTION MOVING FORWARD CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDES PINNING DOWN FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAN
FORECAST FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THE MCS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN U.P. RAISES
CONCERN BUT NWP DATA SUGGESTS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FORCING WILL
KEEP IT REMOVED FROM SEMICH. CAMS...AND RAP/HRRR ADVERTISES A
PEAK HEATING INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR CONVECTION. CURRENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS OFFERS SUPPORT TO THIS THINKING WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
LOWER PENINSULA. NO TANGIBLE EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. FOCUS WILL BE ON INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
BETTER FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SLOW STORM MOTION RAISES A
CONCERN FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION LOADING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THREAT OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANY SHALLOW MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.
NOTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER COVERAGE
OF VFR DIURNAL CU FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE
AUGMENTED BY A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE REGION.  LOWER
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT ONE OR
MORE TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A DEFINED MENTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021619
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1219 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED THIS MORNING ALONG AND WITHIN AN ENHANCED GRADIENT
OF MIDLEVEL EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE THAT WASHED IN FROM
WISCONSIN. STEEP 925-850MB LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z KDTX WERE
ENOUGH TO AID PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS IN GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY.
WITH THE ACTIVITY EXITING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OBSERVATIONAL
DATASETS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND INSOLATION THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE QUESTION MOVING FORWARD CENTERS ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDES PINNING DOWN FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAN
FORECAST FROM A THETA E PERSPECTIVE...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THE MCS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN U.P. RAISES
CONCERN BUT NWP DATA SUGGESTS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FORCING WILL
KEEP IT REMOVED FROM SEMICH. CAMS...AND RAP/HRRR ADVERTISES A
PEAK HEATING INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR CONVECTION. CURRENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS OFFERS SUPPORT TO THIS THINKING WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
LOWER PENINSULA. NO TANGIBLE EDITS WILL BE MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST. FOCUS WILL BE ON INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
BETTER FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. SLOW STORM MOTION RAISES A
CONCERN FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRECIPITATION LOADING POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS THREAT OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ANY SHALLOW MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.
NOTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER COVERAGE
OF VFR DIURNAL CU FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE
AUGMENTED BY A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE REGION.  LOWER
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT ONE OR
MORE TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A DEFINED MENTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021058
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

ANY SHALLOW MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.
NOTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER COVERAGE
OF VFR DIURNAL CU FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE
AUGMENTED BY A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE REGION.  LOWER
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT ONE OR
MORE TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A DEFINED MENTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021058
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

ANY SHALLOW MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.
NOTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE QUALITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER COVERAGE
OF VFR DIURNAL CU FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE
AUGMENTED BY A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE REGION.  LOWER
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT ONE OR
MORE TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A DEFINED MENTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1218 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FOG IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW
TYPICAL SPOTS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR BY 03Z. WITH WINDS DROPPING
OFF AT DUSK...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD FOG OVER STRATUS
SCENARIO. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE
EVENING TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCT CLOUD COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. TAF ALREADY DROP TO IFR SO WILL HOLD WITH THIS UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS START TO SUGGEST ANYTHING LOWER. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT
18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1218 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FOG IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW
TYPICAL SPOTS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR BY 03Z. WITH WINDS DROPPING
OFF AT DUSK...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD FOG OVER STRATUS
SCENARIO. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE
EVENING TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCT CLOUD COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. TAF ALREADY DROP TO IFR SO WILL HOLD WITH THIS UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS START TO SUGGEST ANYTHING LOWER. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT
18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1218 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FOG IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW
TYPICAL SPOTS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR BY 03Z. WITH WINDS DROPPING
OFF AT DUSK...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD FOG OVER STRATUS
SCENARIO. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE
EVENING TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCT CLOUD COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. TAF ALREADY DROP TO IFR SO WILL HOLD WITH THIS UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS START TO SUGGEST ANYTHING LOWER. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT
18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 020736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT FIELD CURRENTLY ANCHORED ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL LARGELY HOLD TIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS TEND TO ONLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY WHILE STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION...AS THE FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND DEEPENS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TODAY VIRTUALLY A
CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A TOUCH MORE MIXED.  THIS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS OF UPPER 80S/AROUND 90...WITH AN UNCOMFORTABLE
DEWPOINT IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE...CARRYING SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT WITH SOME CAPPING ISSUES AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INDICATES AT
LEAST A LOWER END POTENTIAL FOR MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...FIXATED ALONG THE WEAK CONVERGENCE REGION
ACCOMPANYING THE INBOUND BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY LAKE
BREEZE ACTIVITY.  BACKGROUND FORCING OTHERWISE NON-DESCRIPT LIMITING
THE PROSPECTS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH THE BOTTOM END OF THE TEMPERATURE
SPECTRUM AGAIN CAPPED BY THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  LOWS
LARGELY IN THE UPPER 60S...LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.
EXISTING LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CASTING SOME DOUBT IN FOG POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD /NOTING A SIMILAR
SITUATION CURRENTLY/.   WILL HOLD OFF A DEFINED MENTION AT THIS
STAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL NOT THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS THE UPPER WAVE/ENERGY ENTERING MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND RELUCTANT TO EXIT BY
FRIDAY...AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ONTARIO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SEEMS
APPROPRIATE ON THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/COLD POOL (-10 TO -11 C AT 500 MB) WORKS THROUGH THE
AREA...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING
INTO THE 800-1600 J/KG RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO ATTEMPT TO
TAKE HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDERCUTTING THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LOWER AS WE
HEAD INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EURO REMAINS MOST BULLISH
MAINTAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCE POPS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DETERMINING WHETHER TEMPS
WILL END UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S VS LOWER 80S/NEAR 80...AS 850 MB
TEMPS HANG OUT IN THE 15 TO 17 C RANGE.

90 DEGREES LOOKS TO BE WITHIN REACH OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS HEIGHTS RESUME THEIR UPWARD TRAJECTORY. THE STRONG AND
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (592+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH 850 MB
TEMPS REACHING AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 C.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1218 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

FOG IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW
TYPICAL SPOTS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR BY 03Z. WITH WINDS DROPPING
OFF AT DUSK...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD FOG OVER STRATUS
SCENARIO. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE
EVENING TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCT CLOUD COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. TAF ALREADY DROP TO IFR SO WILL HOLD WITH THIS UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS START TO SUGGEST ANYTHING LOWER. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT
18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 020418
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1218 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

FOG IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW
TYPICAL SPOTS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR BY 03Z. WITH WINDS DROPPING
OFF AT DUSK...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD FOG OVER STRATUS
SCENARIO. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE
EVENING TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCT CLOUD COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. TAF ALREADY DROP TO IFR SO WILL HOLD WITH THIS UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS START TO SUGGEST ANYTHING LOWER. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT
18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 409 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE DAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE FOG/STRATUS FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT...AS ANY LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONITOR
TRENDS. IF WE DECOUPLE...WE MAY END UP WITH SOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MICHIGAN AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CAN SEE THIS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS
COINCIDES NICELY WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE THETA-E
PUSH. DID ALSO SEE ONE QUICK SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY (PRIOR TO 3 PM) OVER WASHTENAW COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE HEATING CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TRY TO ERODE A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INLAND AND AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS IN TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION WOULD BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST EITHER.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

LONG TERM...

A WEAK 500MB CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY HAS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CAPES APPROACHING 2K JOULES BUT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG CAP
NEAR 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART
BUT WILL STILL CARRY A LOWER CHANCE AS ANY STRONG LAKE BREEZE OR
MESOCALE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING.  THE BETTER CHANCE LIES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH NIGHT TIME...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THERE WILL STILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP. WILL
STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALSO DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS RIDGE AXIS DOES.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE STATE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.  GFS/NAM MOVE IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
CANADIAN/EURO STRENGTHENS IT A LITTLE MORE THEN KEEPS IT CUTOFF OVER
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOT IN EXISTENCE YET...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND A BETTER HANDLE ON IT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SPAWN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DRC/DT
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020418
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1218 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

FOG IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW
TYPICAL SPOTS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR BY 03Z. WITH WINDS DROPPING
OFF AT DUSK...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD FOG OVER STRATUS
SCENARIO. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE
EVENING TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCT CLOUD COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. TAF ALREADY DROP TO IFR SO WILL HOLD WITH THIS UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS START TO SUGGEST ANYTHING LOWER. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT
18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 409 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE DAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE FOG/STRATUS FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT...AS ANY LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONITOR
TRENDS. IF WE DECOUPLE...WE MAY END UP WITH SOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MICHIGAN AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CAN SEE THIS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS
COINCIDES NICELY WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE THETA-E
PUSH. DID ALSO SEE ONE QUICK SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY (PRIOR TO 3 PM) OVER WASHTENAW COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE HEATING CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TRY TO ERODE A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INLAND AND AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS IN TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION WOULD BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST EITHER.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

LONG TERM...

A WEAK 500MB CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY HAS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CAPES APPROACHING 2K JOULES BUT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG CAP
NEAR 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART
BUT WILL STILL CARRY A LOWER CHANCE AS ANY STRONG LAKE BREEZE OR
MESOCALE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING.  THE BETTER CHANCE LIES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH NIGHT TIME...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THERE WILL STILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP. WILL
STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALSO DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS RIDGE AXIS DOES.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE STATE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.  GFS/NAM MOVE IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
CANADIAN/EURO STRENGTHENS IT A LITTLE MORE THEN KEEPS IT CUTOFF OVER
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOT IN EXISTENCE YET...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND A BETTER HANDLE ON IT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SPAWN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DRC/DT
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 020418
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1218 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

FOG IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW
TYPICAL SPOTS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR BY 03Z. WITH WINDS DROPPING
OFF AT DUSK...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD FOG OVER STRATUS
SCENARIO. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE
EVENING TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCT CLOUD COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. TAF ALREADY DROP TO IFR SO WILL HOLD WITH THIS UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS START TO SUGGEST ANYTHING LOWER. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT
18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 409 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE DAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE FOG/STRATUS FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT...AS ANY LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONITOR
TRENDS. IF WE DECOUPLE...WE MAY END UP WITH SOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MICHIGAN AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CAN SEE THIS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS
COINCIDES NICELY WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE THETA-E
PUSH. DID ALSO SEE ONE QUICK SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY (PRIOR TO 3 PM) OVER WASHTENAW COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE HEATING CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TRY TO ERODE A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INLAND AND AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS IN TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION WOULD BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST EITHER.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

LONG TERM...

A WEAK 500MB CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY HAS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CAPES APPROACHING 2K JOULES BUT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG CAP
NEAR 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART
BUT WILL STILL CARRY A LOWER CHANCE AS ANY STRONG LAKE BREEZE OR
MESOCALE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING.  THE BETTER CHANCE LIES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH NIGHT TIME...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THERE WILL STILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP. WILL
STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALSO DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS RIDGE AXIS DOES.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE STATE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.  GFS/NAM MOVE IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
CANADIAN/EURO STRENGTHENS IT A LITTLE MORE THEN KEEPS IT CUTOFF OVER
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOT IN EXISTENCE YET...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND A BETTER HANDLE ON IT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SPAWN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DRC/DT
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020418
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1218 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...

FOG IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA. TAFS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW
TYPICAL SPOTS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR BY 03Z. WITH WINDS DROPPING
OFF AT DUSK...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD FOG OVER STRATUS
SCENARIO. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE
EVENING TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN MI WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP THROUGH SE MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCT CLOUD COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. TAF ALREADY DROP TO IFR SO WILL HOLD WITH THIS UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS START TO SUGGEST ANYTHING LOWER. CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT
18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 409 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE DAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE FOG/STRATUS FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT...AS ANY LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONITOR
TRENDS. IF WE DECOUPLE...WE MAY END UP WITH SOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MICHIGAN AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CAN SEE THIS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS
COINCIDES NICELY WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE THETA-E
PUSH. DID ALSO SEE ONE QUICK SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY (PRIOR TO 3 PM) OVER WASHTENAW COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE HEATING CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TRY TO ERODE A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INLAND AND AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS IN TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION WOULD BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST EITHER.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

LONG TERM...

A WEAK 500MB CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY HAS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CAPES APPROACHING 2K JOULES BUT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG CAP
NEAR 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART
BUT WILL STILL CARRY A LOWER CHANCE AS ANY STRONG LAKE BREEZE OR
MESOCALE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING.  THE BETTER CHANCE LIES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH NIGHT TIME...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THERE WILL STILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP. WILL
STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALSO DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS RIDGE AXIS DOES.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE STATE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.  GFS/NAM MOVE IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
CANADIAN/EURO STRENGTHENS IT A LITTLE MORE THEN KEEPS IT CUTOFF OVER
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOT IN EXISTENCE YET...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND A BETTER HANDLE ON IT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SPAWN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DRC/DT
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 012323
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
723 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.AVIATION...

CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE PERSISTENT POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS SETTING UP TONIGHT. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGAN DROPPING OFF WHICH WOULD FAVOR FOG HENCE THE IFR
FOG CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST. WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF WE DECOUPLE
AND GO CALM WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIFR. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT
AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU
DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD
HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 409 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE DAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE FOG/STRATUS FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT...AS ANY LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONITOR
TRENDS. IF WE DECOUPLE...WE MAY END UP WITH SOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MICHIGAN AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CAN SEE THIS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS
COINCIDES NICELY WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE THETA-E
PUSH. DID ALSO SEE ONE QUICK SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY (PRIOR TO 3 PM) OVER WASHTENAW COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE HEATING CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TRY TO ERODE A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INLAND AND AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS IN TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION WOULD BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST EITHER.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

LONG TERM...

A WEAK 500MB CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY HAS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CAPES APPROACHING 2K JOULES BUT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG CAP
NEAR 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART
BUT WILL STILL CARRY A LOWER CHANCE AS ANY STRONG LAKE BREEZE OR
MESOCALE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING.  THE BETTER CHANCE LIES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH NIGHT TIME...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THERE WILL STILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP. WILL
STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALSO DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS RIDGE AXIS DOES.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE STATE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.  GFS/NAM MOVE IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
CANADIAN/EURO STRENGTHENS IT A LITTLE MORE THEN KEEPS IT CUTOFF OVER
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOT IN EXISTENCE YET...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND A BETTER HANDLE ON IT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SPAWN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DRC/DT
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 012323
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
723 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.AVIATION...

CU FIELD QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE PERSISTENT POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS SETTING UP TONIGHT. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGAN DROPPING OFF WHICH WOULD FAVOR FOG HENCE THE IFR
FOG CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST. WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF WE DECOUPLE
AND GO CALM WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIFR. LOOK FOR FOG TO MIX OUT
AROUND 14Z GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU
DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING INTO THE REGION COULD
HELP THE CLOUDS HOLD LATER INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 409 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE DAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE FOG/STRATUS FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT...AS ANY LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONITOR
TRENDS. IF WE DECOUPLE...WE MAY END UP WITH SOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MICHIGAN AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CAN SEE THIS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS
COINCIDES NICELY WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE THETA-E
PUSH. DID ALSO SEE ONE QUICK SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY (PRIOR TO 3 PM) OVER WASHTENAW COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE HEATING CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TRY TO ERODE A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INLAND AND AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS IN TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION WOULD BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST EITHER.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

LONG TERM...

A WEAK 500MB CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY HAS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CAPES APPROACHING 2K JOULES BUT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG CAP
NEAR 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART
BUT WILL STILL CARRY A LOWER CHANCE AS ANY STRONG LAKE BREEZE OR
MESOCALE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING.  THE BETTER CHANCE LIES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH NIGHT TIME...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THERE WILL STILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP. WILL
STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALSO DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS RIDGE AXIS DOES.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE STATE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.  GFS/NAM MOVE IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
CANADIAN/EURO STRENGTHENS IT A LITTLE MORE THEN KEEPS IT CUTOFF OVER
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOT IN EXISTENCE YET...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND A BETTER HANDLE ON IT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SPAWN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DRC/DT
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 012009
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
409 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE DAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE FOG/STRATUS FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT...AS ANY LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONITOR
TRENDS. IF WE DECOUPLE...WE MAY END UP WITH SOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MICHIGAN AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CAN SEE THIS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS
COINCIDES NICELY WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE THETA-E
PUSH. DID ALSO SEE ONE QUICK SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY (PRIOR TO 3 PM) OVER WASHTENAW COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE HEATING CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TRY TO ERODE A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INLAND AND AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS IN TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION WOULD BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST EITHER.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A WEAK 500MB CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY HAS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CAPES APPROACHING 2K JOULES BUT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG CAP
NEAR 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART
BUT WILL STILL CARRY A LOWER CHANCE AS ANY STRONG LAKE BREEZE OR
MESOCALE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING.  THE BETTER CHANCE LIES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH NIGHT TIME...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THERE WILL STILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP. WILL
STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALSO DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS RIDGE AXIS DOES.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE STATE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.  GFS/NAM MOVE IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
CANADIAN/EURO STRENGTHENS IT A LITTLE MORE THEN KEEPS IT CUTOFF OVER
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOT IN EXISTENCE YET...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND A BETTER HANDLE ON IT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SPAWN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 142 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SCT-BKN CU DECK TO FILL IN
OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW THIS DECK TO REMAIN DESPITE LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM DIURNAL
HEATING. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DECK SCATTERING OUT AS BEST FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A
PERIOD OF IFR DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 08Z. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR OR
EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WITH
LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...FOG/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND 14Z WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THROUGH 00Z.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE DTW AIRSPACE.

* LOW FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE OR CIGS BELOW 200 FEET.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DRC/DT
MARINE.......DRC
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 012009
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
409 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT THE START OF THE DAY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY RIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO LIFT INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE FOG/STRATUS FORECAST A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING FOR TONIGHT...AS ANY LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND MONITOR
TRENDS. IF WE DECOUPLE...WE MAY END UP WITH SOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM INDICATING A WEAK PUSH OF THETA-E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MICHIGAN AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
CAN SEE THIS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN
THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS
COINCIDES NICELY WITH WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THE THETA-E
PUSH. DID ALSO SEE ONE QUICK SHOWER POP UP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY (PRIOR TO 3 PM) OVER WASHTENAW COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE HEATING CYCLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR...FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA TRY TO ERODE A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY INLAND AND AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WORKS IN TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOTION WOULD BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND GUST EITHER.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...

A WEAK 500MB CIRCULATION OVER INDIANA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS
WILL WARRANT A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER.

REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY HAS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
AND EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CAPES APPROACHING 2K JOULES BUT ALONG WITH A MODERATELY STRONG CAP
NEAR 700MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART
BUT WILL STILL CARRY A LOWER CHANCE AS ANY STRONG LAKE BREEZE OR
MESOCALE BOUNDARY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING.  THE BETTER CHANCE LIES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DEVELOPS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY LOWER BEHIND
THIS FRONT BUT ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP IS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH NIGHT TIME...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 THERE WILL STILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME NOCTURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP. WILL
STILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ALSO DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENING AS RIDGE AXIS DOES.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE STATE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.  GFS/NAM MOVE IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
CANADIAN/EURO STRENGTHENS IT A LITTLE MORE THEN KEEPS IT CUTOFF OVER
CENTRAL LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE NOT IN EXISTENCE YET...WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SHORTWAVE
ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AND A BETTER HANDLE ON IT CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHICH
COULD SPAWN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 142 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SCT-BKN CU DECK TO FILL IN
OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW THIS DECK TO REMAIN DESPITE LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM DIURNAL
HEATING. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DECK SCATTERING OUT AS BEST FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A
PERIOD OF IFR DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 08Z. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR OR
EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WITH
LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...FOG/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND 14Z WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THROUGH 00Z.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE DTW AIRSPACE.

* LOW FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE OR CIGS BELOW 200 FEET.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DRC/DT
MARINE.......DRC
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011742
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SCT-BKN CU DECK TO FILL IN
OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL IS LOW. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW THIS DECK TO REMAIN DESPITE LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM DIURNAL
HEATING. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DECK SCATTERING OUT AS BEST FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A
PERIOD OF IFR DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 08Z. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR OR
EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WITH
LOCATION IS VERY UNCERTAIN. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...FOG/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND 14Z WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT THROUGH 00Z.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE DTW AIRSPACE.

* LOW FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE OR CIGS BELOW 200 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  THE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION...UNDER A
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER TIER TODAY.  HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
REMAIN ON POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C.  DEWPOINTS INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH HEAT
INDICES CREAPING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.

CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING CORE OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS PAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY GLANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS
CONTINUES TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP
THROUGH THE I-94/ANN ARBOR-DETROIT CORRIDOR.

PATTERN PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST PATCHY
/LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY TEND TO FAVOR A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD.  THE ELEVATED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CAP LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES BY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...LEVELING OFF
OUR WARMUP...AND LIKELY SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 20 C ON
WEDNESDAY STILL SUGGESTING MAXES NEAR 90 DEGREE.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MUDDLE THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. 00Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THUS FORECASTED 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE LOOKS UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
LOW...BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS AND CORRESPONDING
HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES (1500 J/KG)...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. PER 00Z
GFS...MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-11 C AT 500 MB) TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) ALSO
LOOK TO BE RUNNING HIGH 7+ C/KM. SHARPENING WEST TO EAST 850-700
MB THETA-E GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. 00Z EURO IS SLOWEST
AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS. CLOUDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011102
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.AVIATION...

EXISTING IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL LIFT 13-14Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.  SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL TODAY WILL
PROVIDE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN VFR DIURNAL CU
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.  SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT WILL AGAIN
PROMOTE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING A PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR/IFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  THE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION...UNDER A
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER TIER TODAY.  HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
REMAIN ON POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C.  DEWPOINTS INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH HEAT
INDICES CREAPING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.

CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING CORE OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS PAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY GLANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS
CONTINUES TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP
THROUGH THE I-94/ANN ARBOR-DETROIT CORRIDOR.

PATTERN PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST PATCHY
/LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY TEND TO FAVOR A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD.  THE ELEVATED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CAP LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES BY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...LEVELING OFF
OUR WARMUP...AND LIKELY SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 20 C ON
WEDNESDAY STILL SUGGESTING MAXES NEAR 90 DEGREE.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MUDDLE THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. 00Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THUS FORECASTED 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE LOOKS UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
LOW...BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS AND CORRESPONDING
HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES (1500 J/KG)...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. PER 00Z
GFS...MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-11 C AT 500 MB) TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) ALSO
LOOK TO BE RUNNING HIGH 7+ C/KM. SHARPENING WEST TO EAST 850-700
MB THETA-E GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. 00Z EURO IS SLOWEST
AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS. CLOUDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011102
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.AVIATION...

EXISTING IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL LIFT 13-14Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.  SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL TODAY WILL
PROVIDE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN VFR DIURNAL CU
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.  SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT WILL AGAIN
PROMOTE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING A PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR/IFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  THE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION...UNDER A
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER TIER TODAY.  HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
REMAIN ON POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C.  DEWPOINTS INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH HEAT
INDICES CREAPING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.

CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING CORE OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS PAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY GLANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS
CONTINUES TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP
THROUGH THE I-94/ANN ARBOR-DETROIT CORRIDOR.

PATTERN PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST PATCHY
/LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY TEND TO FAVOR A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD.  THE ELEVATED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CAP LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES BY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...LEVELING OFF
OUR WARMUP...AND LIKELY SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 20 C ON
WEDNESDAY STILL SUGGESTING MAXES NEAR 90 DEGREE.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MUDDLE THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. 00Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THUS FORECASTED 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE LOOKS UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
LOW...BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS AND CORRESPONDING
HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES (1500 J/KG)...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. PER 00Z
GFS...MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-11 C AT 500 MB) TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) ALSO
LOOK TO BE RUNNING HIGH 7+ C/KM. SHARPENING WEST TO EAST 850-700
MB THETA-E GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. 00Z EURO IS SLOWEST
AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS. CLOUDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 011102
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.AVIATION...

EXISTING IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL LIFT 13-14Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.  SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL TODAY WILL
PROVIDE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN VFR DIURNAL CU
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.  SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT WILL AGAIN
PROMOTE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING A PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR/IFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  THE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION...UNDER A
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER TIER TODAY.  HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
REMAIN ON POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C.  DEWPOINTS INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH HEAT
INDICES CREAPING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.

CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING CORE OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS PAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY GLANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS
CONTINUES TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP
THROUGH THE I-94/ANN ARBOR-DETROIT CORRIDOR.

PATTERN PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST PATCHY
/LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY TEND TO FAVOR A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD.  THE ELEVATED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CAP LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES BY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...LEVELING OFF
OUR WARMUP...AND LIKELY SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 20 C ON
WEDNESDAY STILL SUGGESTING MAXES NEAR 90 DEGREE.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MUDDLE THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. 00Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THUS FORECASTED 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE LOOKS UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
LOW...BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS AND CORRESPONDING
HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES (1500 J/KG)...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. PER 00Z
GFS...MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-11 C AT 500 MB) TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) ALSO
LOOK TO BE RUNNING HIGH 7+ C/KM. SHARPENING WEST TO EAST 850-700
MB THETA-E GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. 00Z EURO IS SLOWEST
AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS. CLOUDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 011102
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.AVIATION...

EXISTING IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL LIFT 13-14Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.  SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL TODAY WILL
PROVIDE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN VFR DIURNAL CU
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.  SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT WILL AGAIN
PROMOTE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING A PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR/IFR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  THE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION...UNDER A
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER TIER TODAY.  HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
REMAIN ON POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C.  DEWPOINTS INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH HEAT
INDICES CREAPING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.

CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING CORE OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS PAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY GLANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS
CONTINUES TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP
THROUGH THE I-94/ANN ARBOR-DETROIT CORRIDOR.

PATTERN PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST PATCHY
/LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY TEND TO FAVOR A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD.  THE ELEVATED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CAP LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES BY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...LEVELING OFF
OUR WARMUP...AND LIKELY SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 20 C ON
WEDNESDAY STILL SUGGESTING MAXES NEAR 90 DEGREE.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MUDDLE THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. 00Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THUS FORECASTED 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE LOOKS UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
LOW...BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS AND CORRESPONDING
HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES (1500 J/KG)...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. PER 00Z
GFS...MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-11 C AT 500 MB) TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) ALSO
LOOK TO BE RUNNING HIGH 7+ C/KM. SHARPENING WEST TO EAST 850-700
MB THETA-E GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. 00Z EURO IS SLOWEST
AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS. CLOUDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010740
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  THE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION...UNDER A
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER TIER TODAY.  HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
REMAIN ON POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C.  DEWPOINTS INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH HEAT
INDICES CREAPING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.

CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING CORE OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS PAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY GLANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS
CONTINUES TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP
THROUGH THE I-94/ANN ARBOR-DETROIT CORRIDOR.

PATTERN PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST PATCHY
/LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY TEND TO FAVOR A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD.  THE ELEVATED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CAP LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...LEVELING OFF
OUR WARMUP...AND LIKELY SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 20 C ON
WEDNESDAY STILL SUGGESTING MAXES NEAR 90 DEGREE.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MUDDLE THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. 00Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THUS FORECASTED 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE LOOKS UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
LOW...BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS AND CORRESPONDING
HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES (1500 J/KG)...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. PER 00Z
GFS...MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-11 C AT 500 MB) TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) ALSO
LOOK TO BE RUNNING HIGH 7+ C/KM. SHARPENING WEST TO EAST 850-700
MB THETA-E GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. 00Z EURO IS SLOWEST
AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS. CLOUDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1140 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR/IFR FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST
SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4 MILE VSBY SO FAR. GENERAL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS WILL CARRY
AN EARLIER ONSET TIME FOR ALL LOCATIONS. VERY FAVORABLE RADIATING
CONDITIONS MAY YET FAVOR A PERIOD OF FG BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE AS HEATING INCREASES 13-14Z. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPS.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR VSBY TO FALL TO 1 MILE OR LOWER BUT
PREFER TO SEE SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWNWARD. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010740
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  THE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION...UNDER A
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER TIER TODAY.  HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
REMAIN ON POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C.  DEWPOINTS INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH HEAT
INDICES CREAPING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.

CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING CORE OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS PAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY GLANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS
CONTINUES TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP
THROUGH THE I-94/ANN ARBOR-DETROIT CORRIDOR.

PATTERN PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST PATCHY
/LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY TEND TO FAVOR A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD.  THE ELEVATED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CAP LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...LEVELING OFF
OUR WARMUP...AND LIKELY SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 20 C ON
WEDNESDAY STILL SUGGESTING MAXES NEAR 90 DEGREE.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MUDDLE THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. 00Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THUS FORECASTED 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE LOOKS UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
LOW...BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS AND CORRESPONDING
HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES (1500 J/KG)...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. PER 00Z
GFS...MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-11 C AT 500 MB) TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) ALSO
LOOK TO BE RUNNING HIGH 7+ C/KM. SHARPENING WEST TO EAST 850-700
MB THETA-E GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. 00Z EURO IS SLOWEST
AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS. CLOUDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1140 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR/IFR FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST
SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4 MILE VSBY SO FAR. GENERAL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS WILL CARRY
AN EARLIER ONSET TIME FOR ALL LOCATIONS. VERY FAVORABLE RADIATING
CONDITIONS MAY YET FAVOR A PERIOD OF FG BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE AS HEATING INCREASES 13-14Z. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPS.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR VSBY TO FALL TO 1 MILE OR LOWER BUT
PREFER TO SEE SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWNWARD. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010740
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL MARK CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT CENTERS SQUARELY OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  THE INCREMENTAL
INCREASE IN MEAN THICKNESSES AND HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION...UNDER A
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EFFECTIVELY NUDGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER TIER TODAY.  HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
REMAIN ON POINT FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 17C.  DEWPOINTS INCHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL PROVIDE A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL...WITH HEAT
INDICES CREAPING TOWARD 90 DEGREES.

CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING CORE OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION
AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER ASCENT/LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS PAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY GLANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS
CONTINUES TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED MENTION FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP
THROUGH THE I-94/ANN ARBOR-DETROIT CORRIDOR.

PATTERN PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST PATCHY
/LOCALLY DENSE/ FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
MAY TEND TO FAVOR A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK INSTEAD.  THE ELEVATED
NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CAP LOWS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/EXPANDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...LEVELING OFF
OUR WARMUP...AND LIKELY SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE AND 850 MB TEMPS UP AROUND 20 C ON
WEDNESDAY STILL SUGGESTING MAXES NEAR 90 DEGREE.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MUDDLE THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. 00Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...WITH
SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S...AND THUS FORECASTED 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE LOOKS UNREALISTIC. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
LOW...BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS AND CORRESPONDING
HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES (1500 J/KG)...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. PER 00Z
GFS...MID LEVEL COLD POOL (-11 C AT 500 MB) TRACKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP/SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE (700-500 MB) ALSO
LOOK TO BE RUNNING HIGH 7+ C/KM. SHARPENING WEST TO EAST 850-700
MB THETA-E GRADIENT SETTING UP ON THURSDAY. 00Z EURO IS SLOWEST
AND STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRACKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS. CLOUDS...LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MAXES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WARM AND HUMID AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1140 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR/IFR FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST
SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4 MILE VSBY SO FAR. GENERAL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS WILL CARRY
AN EARLIER ONSET TIME FOR ALL LOCATIONS. VERY FAVORABLE RADIATING
CONDITIONS MAY YET FAVOR A PERIOD OF FG BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE AS HEATING INCREASES 13-14Z. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPS.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR VSBY TO FALL TO 1 MILE OR LOWER BUT
PREFER TO SEE SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWNWARD. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010340
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1140 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST
SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4 MILE VSBY SO FAR. GENERAL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS WILL CARRY
AN EARLIER ONSET TIME FOR ALL LOCATIONS. VERY FAVORABLE RADIATING
CONDITIONS MAY YET FAVOR A PERIOD OF FG BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE AS HEATING INCREASES 13-14Z. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPS.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR VSBY TO FALL TO 1 MILE OR LOWER BUT
PREFER TO SEE SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWNWARD. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA...DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY
OVER INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT HINT AT LESS FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...AND
WATCH TRENDS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S...EVEN CLOSE TO 70 IN URBAN METRO DETROIT.

LONG TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN TRACTION OVER SE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AND START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE WARM PATTERN REMAINS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW
POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 90 EACH DAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT STILL REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT TIMES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMBS TO AROUND 70F. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE
WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON JUST SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER
SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO
THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST. CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS
FEATURE COULD DESTABILIZE THE THERMAL PROFILE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY ON THIS IS QUITE LOW AND SUBJECT TO
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS LIMITED TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WHICH FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT PORT HURON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE
RUNNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND THEN
THE PATTERN REPEATS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE MARINE
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS OR JUST CLOSE TO SHORELINES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THAT AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 010340
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1140 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST
SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4 MILE VSBY SO FAR. GENERAL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS WILL CARRY
AN EARLIER ONSET TIME FOR ALL LOCATIONS. VERY FAVORABLE RADIATING
CONDITIONS MAY YET FAVOR A PERIOD OF FG BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE AS HEATING INCREASES 13-14Z. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPS.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR VSBY TO FALL TO 1 MILE OR LOWER BUT
PREFER TO SEE SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWNWARD. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA...DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY
OVER INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT HINT AT LESS FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...AND
WATCH TRENDS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S...EVEN CLOSE TO 70 IN URBAN METRO DETROIT.

LONG TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN TRACTION OVER SE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AND START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE WARM PATTERN REMAINS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW
POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 90 EACH DAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT STILL REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT TIMES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMBS TO AROUND 70F. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE
WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON JUST SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER
SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO
THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST. CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS
FEATURE COULD DESTABILIZE THE THERMAL PROFILE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY ON THIS IS QUITE LOW AND SUBJECT TO
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS LIMITED TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WHICH FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT PORT HURON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE
RUNNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND THEN
THE PATTERN REPEATS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE MARINE
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS OR JUST CLOSE TO SHORELINES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THAT AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 010340
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1140 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH JUST
SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4 MILE VSBY SO FAR. GENERAL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED ALTHOUGH THE 06Z SET OF TAFS WILL CARRY
AN EARLIER ONSET TIME FOR ALL LOCATIONS. VERY FAVORABLE RADIATING
CONDITIONS MAY YET FAVOR A PERIOD OF FG BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE AS HEATING INCREASES 13-14Z. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPS.

FOR DTW...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR VSBY TO FALL TO 1 MILE OR LOWER BUT
PREFER TO SEE SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY BEFORE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWNWARD. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA...DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY
OVER INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT HINT AT LESS FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...AND
WATCH TRENDS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S...EVEN CLOSE TO 70 IN URBAN METRO DETROIT.

LONG TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN TRACTION OVER SE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AND START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE WARM PATTERN REMAINS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW
POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 90 EACH DAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT STILL REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT TIMES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMBS TO AROUND 70F. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE
WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON JUST SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER
SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO
THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST. CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS
FEATURE COULD DESTABILIZE THE THERMAL PROFILE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY ON THIS IS QUITE LOW AND SUBJECT TO
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS LIMITED TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WHICH FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT PORT HURON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE
RUNNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND THEN
THE PATTERN REPEATS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE MARINE
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS OR JUST CLOSE TO SHORELINES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THAT AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 312316
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
716 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...

LIGHT WIND AND VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY RENEWED
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR...PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING
LATE AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING BY ABOUT 13Z TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASED THAT FOG WILL NOT QUITE THE HINDERANCE IT WAS LAST
NIGHT. VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR DTW...TYPICAL RADIATION FOG SCENARIO WITH VSBYS A BIT HIGHER AT
DTW THAN FOR OTHER LOCALES GIVEN URBAN LOCATION. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA...DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY
OVER INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT HINT AT LESS FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...AND
WATCH TRENDS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S...EVEN CLOSE TO 70 IN URBAN METRO DETROIT.

LONG TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN TRACTION OVER SE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AND START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE WARM PATTERN REMAINS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW
POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 90 EACH DAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT STILL REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT TIMES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMBS TO AROUND 70F. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE
WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON JUST SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER
SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO
THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST. CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS
FEATURE COULD DESTABILIZE THE THERMAL PROFILE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY ON THIS IS QUITE LOW AND SUBJECT TO
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS LIMITED TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WHICH FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT PORT HURON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE
RUNNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND THEN
THE PATTERN REPEATS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE MARINE
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS OR JUST CLOSE TO SHORELINES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THAT AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 312316
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
716 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...

LIGHT WIND AND VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY RENEWED
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR...PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING
LATE AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING BY ABOUT 13Z TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASED THAT FOG WILL NOT QUITE THE HINDERANCE IT WAS LAST
NIGHT. VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR DTW...TYPICAL RADIATION FOG SCENARIO WITH VSBYS A BIT HIGHER AT
DTW THAN FOR OTHER LOCALES GIVEN URBAN LOCATION. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA...DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY
OVER INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT HINT AT LESS FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...AND
WATCH TRENDS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S...EVEN CLOSE TO 70 IN URBAN METRO DETROIT.

LONG TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN TRACTION OVER SE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AND START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE WARM PATTERN REMAINS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW
POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 90 EACH DAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT STILL REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT TIMES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMBS TO AROUND 70F. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE
WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON JUST SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER
SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO
THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST. CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS
FEATURE COULD DESTABILIZE THE THERMAL PROFILE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY ON THIS IS QUITE LOW AND SUBJECT TO
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS LIMITED TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WHICH FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT PORT HURON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE
RUNNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND THEN
THE PATTERN REPEATS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE MARINE
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS OR JUST CLOSE TO SHORELINES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THAT AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 312316
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
716 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...

LIGHT WIND AND VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY RENEWED
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR...PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR...RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING
LATE AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING BY ABOUT 13Z TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASED THAT FOG WILL NOT QUITE THE HINDERANCE IT WAS LAST
NIGHT. VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR DTW...TYPICAL RADIATION FOG SCENARIO WITH VSBYS A BIT HIGHER AT
DTW THAN FOR OTHER LOCALES GIVEN URBAN LOCATION. HIGH BASED CU IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4-5KFT ON TUESDAY WITH CIG DEVELOPMENT
BY ABOUT 19Z.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE AND/OR CIG AOB BELOW 200 FEET AFTER 08Z.

* MEDIUM FOR CIG AOB 5KFT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA...DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY
OVER INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT HINT AT LESS FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...AND
WATCH TRENDS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S...EVEN CLOSE TO 70 IN URBAN METRO DETROIT.

LONG TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN TRACTION OVER SE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AND START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE WARM PATTERN REMAINS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW
POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 90 EACH DAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT STILL REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT TIMES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMBS TO AROUND 70F. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE
WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON JUST SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER
SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO
THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST. CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS
FEATURE COULD DESTABILIZE THE THERMAL PROFILE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY ON THIS IS QUITE LOW AND SUBJECT TO
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS LIMITED TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WHICH FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT PORT HURON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE
RUNNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND THEN
THE PATTERN REPEATS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE MARINE
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS OR JUST CLOSE TO SHORELINES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THAT AREA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311946
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA...DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY
OVER INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT HINT AT LESS FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...AND
WATCH TRENDS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S...EVEN CLOSE TO 70 IN URBAN METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN TRACTION OVER SE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AND START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE WARM PATTERN REMAINS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW
POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 90 EACH DAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT STILL REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT TIMES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMBS TO AROUND 70F. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE
WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON JUST SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER
SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO
THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST. CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS
FEATURE COULD DESTABILIZE THE THERMAL PROFILE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY ON THIS IS QUITE LOW AND SUBJECT TO
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS LIMITED TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WHICH FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT PORT HURON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE
RUNNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND THEN
THE PATTERN REPEATS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE MARINE
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS OR JUST CLOSE TO SHORELINES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

REMNANTS OF MORNING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MIX OUT BY OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS
TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN BRING
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM. COVERAGE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN TODAY
AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MIXING OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TAFS TOWARDS
MVFR REDUCTIONS AROUND 08-09Z...WITH SOME IFR FILLING IN JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AND LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FOG MIXES OUT ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE OR CEILINGS BELOW 200 FEET AFTER
  08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 311946
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
WEATHER QUIET OVER THE AREA...DESPITE WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING NEARBY
OVER INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER TONIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
REDEVELOP. THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT HINT AT LESS FOG THAN LAST
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL
DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...AND
WATCH TRENDS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. EXPECTING TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE
60S...EVEN CLOSE TO 70 IN URBAN METRO DETROIT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN TRACTION OVER SE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AND START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE WARM PATTERN REMAINS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW
POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 90 EACH DAY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEAT INDEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA BUT STILL REACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT TIMES AS SURFACE DEWPOINT CLIMBS TO AROUND 70F. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING THE
WARMTH WILL PRODUCE HIGHS AT LEAST MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON JUST SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY DEPICTS A POWERFUL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO WESTERN CANADA THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THE EXPANSIVE AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCAL MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS SMALLER
SCALE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN CANADA AND ALSO DUE TO
THE SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING THE RIDGE STRUCTURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN GULF COAST. CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS
FEATURE COULD DESTABILIZE THE THERMAL PROFILE JUST ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY ON THIS IS QUITE LOW AND SUBJECT TO
AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS LIMITED TO LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WHICH FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT PORT HURON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF MOIST AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POPS AT THIS TIME ARE
RUNNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. DRYER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND THEN
THE PATTERN REPEATS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE MARINE
WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM AND HUMID AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES. THERE
IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EACH DAY MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS OR JUST CLOSE TO SHORELINES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

REMNANTS OF MORNING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MIX OUT BY OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS
TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN BRING
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM. COVERAGE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN TODAY
AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MIXING OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TAFS TOWARDS
MVFR REDUCTIONS AROUND 08-09Z...WITH SOME IFR FILLING IN JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AND LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FOG MIXES OUT ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE OR CEILINGS BELOW 200 FEET AFTER
  08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....BT/DE
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311743
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...

REMNANTS OF MORNING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MIX OUT BY OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS
TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN BRING
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM. COVERAGE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN TODAY
AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MIXING OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TAFS TOWARDS
MVFR REDUCTIONS AROUND 08-09Z...WITH SOME IFR FILLING IN JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AND LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FOG MIXES OUT ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE OR CEILINGS BELOW 200 FEET AFTER
  08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/
WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS...TUCKED BENEATH STABLE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING MINIMUM IN THETA-E.  LACK OF
FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.  DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND ACCOMPANYING RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
HEADLINE NEEDS ACCORDINGLY MOVING FORWARD INTO THE MID MORNING
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NOTEWORTHY UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH THE EMERGING
HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MEAN THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.  POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY
OF LESS COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE GIVEN A FULL DAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY INTRODUCE A PATCHY MENTION
FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE 570 DAM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CLOSED CIRCULATION/CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL BE TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WEAKNESS/MOISTURE ADVECTION CROSSING JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS INSTABILITY/CAPE LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY WEAK HOWEVER...AS 500 MB WINDS LOOK TO BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STILL
SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE...WITH 15 C DEW PT AT 850 MB AND 6 C
DEW PT AT 700 MB. 00Z NAM INITIALIZATION AT THIS LOCATION IS GROSSLY
UNDERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE. EVEN SO...NAM SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY
SHOWING NO CAP TO SPEAK OFF NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES FOR
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BASED ON
850 MB TEMPS OF 17 TO 18 C.

THE 500 MB LOW IS FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE STRAIGHTS/NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION (MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE) WITH 1000-850 MB
CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 700
MB RISING TO 10 C...WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAP ACTIVITY...WHILE 00Z EURO
SHOWS SLIGHT COOLING DOWN TO AROUND 8 C BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850 MB
TEMPS OF 18 TO 20 C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING (500 MB TEMP OF -10 C) ON THURSDAY WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000-850 MB CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG PER
EURO) AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
AS DRIER AIR (850-700 MB THETA-E TROUGHING) WORKS SOUTH THROUGH LAKE
HURON.

MARINE...

QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
GENERALLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311743
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015


.AVIATION...

REMNANTS OF MORNING STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL MIX OUT BY OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AND WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS
TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN BRING
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM. COVERAGE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN TODAY
AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MIXING OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TAFS TOWARDS
MVFR REDUCTIONS AROUND 08-09Z...WITH SOME IFR FILLING IN JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AND LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FOG MIXES OUT ONCE AGAIN
IN THE LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE OR CEILINGS BELOW 200 FEET AFTER
  08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/
WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS...TUCKED BENEATH STABLE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING MINIMUM IN THETA-E.  LACK OF
FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.  DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND ACCOMPANYING RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
HEADLINE NEEDS ACCORDINGLY MOVING FORWARD INTO THE MID MORNING
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NOTEWORTHY UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH THE EMERGING
HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MEAN THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.  POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY
OF LESS COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE GIVEN A FULL DAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY INTRODUCE A PATCHY MENTION
FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE 570 DAM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CLOSED CIRCULATION/CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL BE TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WEAKNESS/MOISTURE ADVECTION CROSSING JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS INSTABILITY/CAPE LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY WEAK HOWEVER...AS 500 MB WINDS LOOK TO BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STILL
SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE...WITH 15 C DEW PT AT 850 MB AND 6 C
DEW PT AT 700 MB. 00Z NAM INITIALIZATION AT THIS LOCATION IS GROSSLY
UNDERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE. EVEN SO...NAM SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY
SHOWING NO CAP TO SPEAK OFF NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES FOR
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BASED ON
850 MB TEMPS OF 17 TO 18 C.

THE 500 MB LOW IS FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE STRAIGHTS/NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION (MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE) WITH 1000-850 MB
CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 700
MB RISING TO 10 C...WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAP ACTIVITY...WHILE 00Z EURO
SHOWS SLIGHT COOLING DOWN TO AROUND 8 C BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850 MB
TEMPS OF 18 TO 20 C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING (500 MB TEMP OF -10 C) ON THURSDAY WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000-850 MB CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG PER
EURO) AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
AS DRIER AIR (850-700 MB THETA-E TROUGHING) WORKS SOUTH THROUGH LAKE
HURON.

MARINE...

QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
GENERALLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

EXISTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE THROUGH 15Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.  A FEW-SCT COVERAGE OF LATE DAY VFR CU...A
GREATER COVERAGE INHIBITED BY LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A REDUCTION TOWARD LOW MVFR/IFR AFTER 09Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/
WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS...TUCKED BENEATH STABLE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING MINIMUM IN THETA-E.  LACK OF
FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.  DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND ACCOMPANYING RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
HEADLINE NEEDS ACCORDINGLY MOVING FORWARD INTO THE MID MORNING
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NOTEWORTHY UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH THE EMERGING
HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MEAN THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.  POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY
OF LESS COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE GIVEN A FULL DAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY INTRODUCE A PATCHY MENTION
FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE 570 DAM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CLOSED CIRCULATION/CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL BE TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WEAKNESS/MOISTURE ADVECTION CROSSING JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS INSTABILITY/CAPE LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY WEAK HOWEVER...AS 500 MB WINDS LOOK TO BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STILL
SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE...WITH 15 C DEW PT AT 850 MB AND 6 C
DEW PT AT 700 MB. 00Z NAM INITIALIZATION AT THIS LOCATION IS GROSSLY
UNDERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE. EVEN SO...NAM SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY
SHOWING NO CAP TO SPEAK OFF NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES FOR
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BASED ON
850 MB TEMPS OF 17 TO 18 C.

THE 500 MB LOW IS FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE STRAIGHTS/NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION (MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE) WITH 1000-850 MB
CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 700
MB RISING TO 10 C...WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAP ACTIVITY...WHILE 00Z EURO
SHOWS SLIGHT COOLING DOWN TO AROUND 8 C BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850 MB
TEMPS OF 18 TO 20 C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING (500 MB TEMP OF -10 C) ON THURSDAY WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000-850 MB CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG PER
EURO) AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
AS DRIER AIR (850-700 MB THETA-E TROUGHING) WORKS SOUTH THROUGH LAKE
HURON.

MARINE...

QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
GENERALLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 311127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

EXISTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE THROUGH 15Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.  A FEW-SCT COVERAGE OF LATE DAY VFR CU...A
GREATER COVERAGE INHIBITED BY LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A REDUCTION TOWARD LOW MVFR/IFR AFTER 09Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/
WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS...TUCKED BENEATH STABLE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING MINIMUM IN THETA-E.  LACK OF
FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.  DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND ACCOMPANYING RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
HEADLINE NEEDS ACCORDINGLY MOVING FORWARD INTO THE MID MORNING
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NOTEWORTHY UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH THE EMERGING
HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MEAN THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.  POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY
OF LESS COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE GIVEN A FULL DAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY INTRODUCE A PATCHY MENTION
FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE 570 DAM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CLOSED CIRCULATION/CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL BE TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WEAKNESS/MOISTURE ADVECTION CROSSING JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS INSTABILITY/CAPE LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY WEAK HOWEVER...AS 500 MB WINDS LOOK TO BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STILL
SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE...WITH 15 C DEW PT AT 850 MB AND 6 C
DEW PT AT 700 MB. 00Z NAM INITIALIZATION AT THIS LOCATION IS GROSSLY
UNDERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE. EVEN SO...NAM SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY
SHOWING NO CAP TO SPEAK OFF NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES FOR
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BASED ON
850 MB TEMPS OF 17 TO 18 C.

THE 500 MB LOW IS FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE STRAIGHTS/NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION (MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE) WITH 1000-850 MB
CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 700
MB RISING TO 10 C...WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAP ACTIVITY...WHILE 00Z EURO
SHOWS SLIGHT COOLING DOWN TO AROUND 8 C BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850 MB
TEMPS OF 18 TO 20 C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING (500 MB TEMP OF -10 C) ON THURSDAY WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000-850 MB CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG PER
EURO) AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
AS DRIER AIR (850-700 MB THETA-E TROUGHING) WORKS SOUTH THROUGH LAKE
HURON.

MARINE...

QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
GENERALLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 311127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

EXISTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL IMPROVE THROUGH 15Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES.  A FEW-SCT COVERAGE OF LATE DAY VFR CU...A
GREATER COVERAGE INHIBITED BY LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN.  SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A REDUCTION TOWARD LOW MVFR/IFR AFTER 09Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/
WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS...TUCKED BENEATH STABLE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING MINIMUM IN THETA-E.  LACK OF
FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.  DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND ACCOMPANYING RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
HEADLINE NEEDS ACCORDINGLY MOVING FORWARD INTO THE MID MORNING
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NOTEWORTHY UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH THE EMERGING
HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MEAN THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.  POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY
OF LESS COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE GIVEN A FULL DAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY INTRODUCE A PATCHY MENTION
FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE 570 DAM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CLOSED CIRCULATION/CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL BE TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WEAKNESS/MOISTURE ADVECTION CROSSING JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS INSTABILITY/CAPE LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY WEAK HOWEVER...AS 500 MB WINDS LOOK TO BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STILL
SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE...WITH 15 C DEW PT AT 850 MB AND 6 C
DEW PT AT 700 MB. 00Z NAM INITIALIZATION AT THIS LOCATION IS GROSSLY
UNDERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE. EVEN SO...NAM SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY
SHOWING NO CAP TO SPEAK OFF NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES FOR
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BASED ON
850 MB TEMPS OF 17 TO 18 C.

THE 500 MB LOW IS FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE STRAIGHTS/NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION (MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE) WITH 1000-850 MB
CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 700
MB RISING TO 10 C...WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAP ACTIVITY...WHILE 00Z EURO
SHOWS SLIGHT COOLING DOWN TO AROUND 8 C BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850 MB
TEMPS OF 18 TO 20 C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING (500 MB TEMP OF -10 C) ON THURSDAY WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000-850 MB CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG PER
EURO) AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
AS DRIER AIR (850-700 MB THETA-E TROUGHING) WORKS SOUTH THROUGH LAKE
HURON.

MARINE...

QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
GENERALLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 310737
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/
WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS...TUCKED BENEATH STABLE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING MINIMUM IN THETA-E.  LACK OF
FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.  DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND ACCOMPANYING RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
HEADLINE NEEDS ACCORDINGLY MOVING FORWARD INTO THE MID MORNING
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NOTEWORTHY UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH THE EMERGING
HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MEAN THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.  POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY
OF LESS COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE GIVEN A FULL DAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY INTRODUCE A PATCHY MENTION
FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE 570 DAM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CLOSED CIRCULATION/CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL BE TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WEAKNESS/MOISTURE ADVECTION CROSSING JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS INSTABILITY/CAPE LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY WEAK HOWEVER...AS 500 MB WINDS LOOK TO BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STILL
SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE...WITH 15 C DEW PT AT 850 MB AND 6 C
DEW PT AT 700 MB. 00Z NAM INITIALIZATION AT THIS LOCATION IS GROSSLY
UNDERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE. EVEN SO...NAM SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY
SHOWING NO CAP TO SPEAK OFF NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES FOR
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BASED ON
850 MB TEMPS OF 17 TO 18 C.

THE 500 MB LOW IS FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE STRAIGHTS/NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION (MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE) WITH 1000-850 MB
CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 700
MB RISING TO 10 C...WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAP ACTIVITY...WHILE 00Z EURO
SHOWS SLIGHT COOLING DOWN TO AROUND 8 C BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850 MB
TEMPS OF 18 TO 20 C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING (500 MB TEMP OF -10 C) ON THURSDAY WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000-850 MB CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG PER
EURO) AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
AS DRIER AIR (850-700 MB THETA-E TROUGHING) WORKS SOUTH THROUGH LAKE
HURON.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
GENERALLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY UNDER
GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS. INCREASING
CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHWEST CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SCENARIO, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR OTHER LOCATIONS TO FOLLOW. HAVE
TRENDED VSBYS DOWNWARD AT THE AIRFIELDS ACCORDINGLY, WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 14-15Z. HIGH BASED CU POTENTIAL DURING PEAK
HEATING MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN DRIER AIRMASS
AND SOME INHIBITION TO HEATING BY HIGH CLOUDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE 09-12Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 310737
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOLID LATE SUMMER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION /590 DM HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/
WILL STEADILY TAKE HOLD ACROSS SE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENSURE
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS...TUCKED BENEATH STABLE MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING MINIMUM IN THETA-E.  LACK OF
FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING.  DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND ACCOMPANYING RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
HEADLINE NEEDS ACCORDINGLY MOVING FORWARD INTO THE MID MORNING
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY A NOTEWORTHY UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH THE EMERGING
HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE ONCE THE FOG LIFTS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MEAN THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.  POCKET
OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A DISORGANIZED AND
WEAK DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DRY PERIOD.  ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY
OF LESS COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE GIVEN A FULL DAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY INTRODUCE A PATCHY MENTION
FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...

AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE 570 DAM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (588+ DAM AT 500 MB) LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...CLOSED CIRCULATION/CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL PV OVER THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL BE TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WEAKNESS/MOISTURE ADVECTION CROSSING JUST PAST THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
BORDER COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS INSTABILITY/CAPE LOOKS TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY WEAK HOWEVER...AS 500 MB WINDS LOOK TO BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS. 00Z ILX SOUNDING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS STILL
SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE...WITH 15 C DEW PT AT 850 MB AND 6 C
DEW PT AT 700 MB. 00Z NAM INITIALIZATION AT THIS LOCATION IS GROSSLY
UNDERDONE WITH THE MOISTURE. EVEN SO...NAM SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY
SHOWING NO CAP TO SPEAK OFF NEAR THE OHIO BORDER...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES FOR
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BASED ON
850 MB TEMPS OF 17 TO 18 C.

THE 500 MB LOW IS FORECASTED TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE STRAIGHTS/NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHICH COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION (MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE) WITH 1000-850 MB
CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS 700
MB RISING TO 10 C...WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAP ACTIVITY...WHILE 00Z EURO
SHOWS SLIGHT COOLING DOWN TO AROUND 8 C BY 00Z THURSDAY. 850 MB
TEMPS OF 18 TO 20 C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING (500 MB TEMP OF -10 C) ON THURSDAY WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY (1000-850 MB CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG PER
EURO) AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS
AS DRIER AIR (850-700 MB THETA-E TROUGHING) WORKS SOUTH THROUGH LAKE
HURON.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
GENERALLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY UNDER
GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS. INCREASING
CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHWEST CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SCENARIO, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR OTHER LOCATIONS TO FOLLOW. HAVE
TRENDED VSBYS DOWNWARD AT THE AIRFIELDS ACCORDINGLY, WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 14-15Z. HIGH BASED CU POTENTIAL DURING PEAK
HEATING MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN DRIER AIRMASS
AND SOME INHIBITION TO HEATING BY HIGH CLOUDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE 09-12Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 310342
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


.AVIATION...

AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY UNDER
GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS. INCREASING
CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHWEST CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SCENARIO, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR OTHER LOCATIONS TO FOLLOW. HAVE
TRENDED VSBYS DOWNWARD AT THE AIRFIELDS ACCORDINGLY, WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 14-15Z. HIGH BASED CU POTENTIAL DURING PEAK
HEATING MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN DRIER AIRMASS
AND SOME INHIBITION TO HEATING BY HIGH CLOUDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1101 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S ARE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT 03Z, MAINLY NORTH OF
M59. IN THE IMMEDIATE DETROIT AREA, LINGERING CLOUDS AND SLOW
COOLING FROM WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE DELAYING ONSET. WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE, HOWEVER, EXPECT THAT ALL COUNTIES WILL SEE A
NOTEWORTHY COMPONENT OF DENSE FOG WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS THEREFORE FORTHCOMING FOR THE I-69 COUNTIES NORTH VALID
IMMEDIATELY. SEEING AS THOUGH SITES SUCH AS ADG, DTW, AND ARB HAVE
YET TO DIP BELOW 1SM (6SM IN THE CASE OF DTW) WILL START THE
REMAINDER OF COUNTIES AT 06Z WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE MAY
YET BE SOME FURTHER DELAY IN URBAN CORRIDORS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOWEST 100 MB MLCAPE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FROM THE OHIO BORDER TO ABOUT THE I-96/696
CORRIDOR. THE RADAR TREND HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SOFT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY SUGGESTING EITHER DAYTIME HEATING NEEDS A LITTLE MORE
TIME OR THAT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP DEEP
CONVECTION. MOST RECENT RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE LATTER WITH
THE DEPICTION OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS JUST BARELY CLEARING THE
DEEPENING 700-500 MB WARM/STABLE LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
NEWEST MESOSCALE MODELS ALLOWING EXPLICIT CONVECTION PRODUCE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING
PEAK HEATING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MOST
PRUDENT APPROACH IS TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CONSIDERING A WIND HAZARD IS IN PLAY CONDITIONAL ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODEL
SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW VERY DRY AIR CENTERED AROUND 500 MB. THE DRY AIR
IS SYMPTOMATIC OF THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS THAT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE...BUT
WHICH ALSO COULD PROVIDE STRONG NEGATIVE BUOYANCY POTENTIAL SHOULD
INSTABILITY BECOME ADEQUATE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

POINTS NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FORM SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL LEAVE A CLEARING TREND TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS SET TO ESTABLISH AREAS OF FOG IN SE MICHIGAN TOWARD
SUNRISE AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PROJECTED MIN
TEMPS ARE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVED DURING
THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF DRY ADVECTION
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO FOG COVERAGE IN OUR
AREA COMBINED WITH THE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OVER
WISCONSIN/IOWA/ILLINOIS FROM THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE ANTICIPATED WAVELENGTH BROADENING OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE MONDAY WITH A CENTROID OF THE UPPER LEVEL
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAX BREAKING OFF OF THE RIDGE PEAK AND ROLLING
EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA. MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIDGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
PERIOD....BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH NO JET SUPPORT ALOFT...WILL MATERIALIZE
TO SOUTH OF THE OHIO/MICHIGAN BORDER. IT IS ALONG THIS FEATURE AND
TO THE SOUTH WHERE A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY. WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EAST...THE HEAT AND UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL GET STARTED WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
COMBINING TO PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY.

THE WEAK TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY OR FRONTAL ZONE IS THEN
FORECASTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR HAS
LOOSELY DEFINED AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONSOLIDATES INTO SOME
ORGANIZATION OVER GREATER PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA. A PLAN
VIEW OF MIDLEVEL OR 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWS THIS WITH SOME SUB
7C 700 MB TEMPERATURES LIFTING ACROSS THE STATELINE INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IT IS A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET FROM
800-700MB THAT MAY THEN ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER/TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING A PRECIPITATION MENTION THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE AS POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
WORKING OFF WARMER MINS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A
FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS EASILY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECASTED TO ECLIPSE THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

EXTENDED...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE
FIRMLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL
BRING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

VERY QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ068>070-075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB/SS
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 310342
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


.AVIATION...

AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY UNDER
GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS. INCREASING
CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHWEST CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
SCENARIO, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR OTHER LOCATIONS TO FOLLOW. HAVE
TRENDED VSBYS DOWNWARD AT THE AIRFIELDS ACCORDINGLY, WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 14-15Z. HIGH BASED CU POTENTIAL DURING PEAK
HEATING MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN DRIER AIRMASS
AND SOME INHIBITION TO HEATING BY HIGH CLOUDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1101 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S ARE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT 03Z, MAINLY NORTH OF
M59. IN THE IMMEDIATE DETROIT AREA, LINGERING CLOUDS AND SLOW
COOLING FROM WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE DELAYING ONSET. WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE, HOWEVER, EXPECT THAT ALL COUNTIES WILL SEE A
NOTEWORTHY COMPONENT OF DENSE FOG WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS THEREFORE FORTHCOMING FOR THE I-69 COUNTIES NORTH VALID
IMMEDIATELY. SEEING AS THOUGH SITES SUCH AS ADG, DTW, AND ARB HAVE
YET TO DIP BELOW 1SM (6SM IN THE CASE OF DTW) WILL START THE
REMAINDER OF COUNTIES AT 06Z WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE MAY
YET BE SOME FURTHER DELAY IN URBAN CORRIDORS.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOWEST 100 MB MLCAPE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FROM THE OHIO BORDER TO ABOUT THE I-96/696
CORRIDOR. THE RADAR TREND HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SOFT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY SUGGESTING EITHER DAYTIME HEATING NEEDS A LITTLE MORE
TIME OR THAT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP DEEP
CONVECTION. MOST RECENT RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE LATTER WITH
THE DEPICTION OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS JUST BARELY CLEARING THE
DEEPENING 700-500 MB WARM/STABLE LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
NEWEST MESOSCALE MODELS ALLOWING EXPLICIT CONVECTION PRODUCE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING
PEAK HEATING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MOST
PRUDENT APPROACH IS TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CONSIDERING A WIND HAZARD IS IN PLAY CONDITIONAL ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODEL
SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW VERY DRY AIR CENTERED AROUND 500 MB. THE DRY AIR
IS SYMPTOMATIC OF THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS THAT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE...BUT
WHICH ALSO COULD PROVIDE STRONG NEGATIVE BUOYANCY POTENTIAL SHOULD
INSTABILITY BECOME ADEQUATE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

POINTS NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FORM SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL LEAVE A CLEARING TREND TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS SET TO ESTABLISH AREAS OF FOG IN SE MICHIGAN TOWARD
SUNRISE AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PROJECTED MIN
TEMPS ARE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVED DURING
THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF DRY ADVECTION
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO FOG COVERAGE IN OUR
AREA COMBINED WITH THE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OVER
WISCONSIN/IOWA/ILLINOIS FROM THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE ANTICIPATED WAVELENGTH BROADENING OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE MONDAY WITH A CENTROID OF THE UPPER LEVEL
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAX BREAKING OFF OF THE RIDGE PEAK AND ROLLING
EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA. MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIDGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
PERIOD....BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH NO JET SUPPORT ALOFT...WILL MATERIALIZE
TO SOUTH OF THE OHIO/MICHIGAN BORDER. IT IS ALONG THIS FEATURE AND
TO THE SOUTH WHERE A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY. WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EAST...THE HEAT AND UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL GET STARTED WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
COMBINING TO PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY.

THE WEAK TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY OR FRONTAL ZONE IS THEN
FORECASTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR HAS
LOOSELY DEFINED AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONSOLIDATES INTO SOME
ORGANIZATION OVER GREATER PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA. A PLAN
VIEW OF MIDLEVEL OR 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWS THIS WITH SOME SUB
7C 700 MB TEMPERATURES LIFTING ACROSS THE STATELINE INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IT IS A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET FROM
800-700MB THAT MAY THEN ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER/TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING A PRECIPITATION MENTION THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE AS POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
WORKING OFF WARMER MINS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A
FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS EASILY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECASTED TO ECLIPSE THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

EXTENDED...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE
FIRMLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL
BRING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

VERY QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
     060>063.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ068>070-075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB/SS
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 310301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1101 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S ARE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT 03Z, MAINLY NORTH OF
M59. IN THE IMMEDIATE DETROIT AREA, LINGERING CLOUDS AND SLOW
COOLING FROM WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE DELAYING ONSET. WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE, HOWEVER, EXPECT THAT ALL COUNTIES WILL SEE A
NOTEWORTHY COMPONENT OF DENSE FOG WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS THEREFORE FORTHCOMING FOR THE I-69 COUNTIES NORTH VALID
IMMEDIATELY. SEEING AS THOUGH SITES SUCH AS ADG, DTW, AND ARB HAVE
YET TO DIP BELOW 1SM (6SM IN THE CASE OF DTW) WILL START THE
REMAINDER OF COUNTIES AT 06Z WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE MAY
YET BE SOME FURTHER DELAY IN URBAN CORRIDORS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 635 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WHAT REMAINS OF
DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. DESPITE A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF MOSTLY
TRANSPARENT CIRRUS, RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR IFR/LIFR TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOWEST 100 MB MLCAPE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FROM THE OHIO BORDER TO ABOUT THE I-96/696
CORRIDOR. THE RADAR TREND HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SOFT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY SUGGESTING EITHER DAYTIME HEATING NEEDS A LITTLE MORE
TIME OR THAT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP DEEP
CONVECTION. MOST RECENT RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE LATTER WITH
THE DEPICTION OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS JUST BARELY CLEARING THE
DEEPENING 700-500 MB WARM/STABLE LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
NEWEST MESOSCALE MODELS ALLOWING EXPLICIT CONVECTION PRODUCE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING
PEAK HEATING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MOST
PRUDENT APPROACH IS TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CONSIDERING A WIND HAZARD IS IN PLAY CONDITIONAL ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODEL
SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW VERY DRY AIR CENTERED AROUND 500 MB. THE DRY AIR
IS SYMPTOMATIC OF THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS THAT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE...BUT
WHICH ALSO COULD PROVIDE STRONG NEGATIVE BUOYANCY POTENTIAL SHOULD
INSTABILITY BECOME ADEQUATE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

POINTS NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FORM SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL LEAVE A CLEARING TREND TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS SET TO ESTABLISH AREAS OF FOG IN SE MICHIGAN TOWARD
SUNRISE AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PROJECTED MIN
TEMPS ARE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVED DURING
THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF DRY ADVECTION
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO FOG COVERAGE IN OUR
AREA COMBINED WITH THE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OVER
WISCONSIN/IOWA/ILLINOIS FROM THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE ANTICIPATED WAVELENGTH BROADENING OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE MONDAY WITH A CENTROID OF THE UPPER LEVEL
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAX BREAKING OFF OF THE RIDGE PEAK AND ROLLING
EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA. MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIDGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
PERIOD....BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH NO JET SUPPORT ALOFT...WILL MATERIALIZE
TO SOUTH OF THE OHIO/MICHIGAN BORDER. IT IS ALONG THIS FEATURE AND
TO THE SOUTH WHERE A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY. WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EAST...THE HEAT AND UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL GET STARTED WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
COMBINING TO PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY.

THE WEAK TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY OR FRONTAL ZONE IS THEN
FORECASTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR HAS
LOOSELY DEFINED AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONSOLIDATES INTO SOME
ORGANIZATION OVER GREATER PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA. A PLAN
VIEW OF MIDLEVEL OR 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWS THIS WITH SOME SUB
7C 700 MB TEMPERATURES LIFTING ACROSS THE STATELINE INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IT IS A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET FROM
800-700MB THAT MAY THEN ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER/TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING A PRECIPITATION MENTION THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE AS POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
WORKING OFF WARMER MINS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A
FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS EASILY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECASTED TO ECLIPSE THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

EXTENDED...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE
FIRMLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL
BRING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

VERY QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB/SS
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 310301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1101 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S ARE GIVING
WAY TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT 03Z, MAINLY NORTH OF
M59. IN THE IMMEDIATE DETROIT AREA, LINGERING CLOUDS AND SLOW
COOLING FROM WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE DELAYING ONSET. WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE, HOWEVER, EXPECT THAT ALL COUNTIES WILL SEE A
NOTEWORTHY COMPONENT OF DENSE FOG WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS THEREFORE FORTHCOMING FOR THE I-69 COUNTIES NORTH VALID
IMMEDIATELY. SEEING AS THOUGH SITES SUCH AS ADG, DTW, AND ARB HAVE
YET TO DIP BELOW 1SM (6SM IN THE CASE OF DTW) WILL START THE
REMAINDER OF COUNTIES AT 06Z WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE MAY
YET BE SOME FURTHER DELAY IN URBAN CORRIDORS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 635 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WHAT REMAINS OF
DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. DESPITE A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF MOSTLY
TRANSPARENT CIRRUS, RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR IFR/LIFR TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR VSBY AOB 1/2 MILE 09-12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOWEST 100 MB MLCAPE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FROM THE OHIO BORDER TO ABOUT THE I-96/696
CORRIDOR. THE RADAR TREND HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SOFT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY SUGGESTING EITHER DAYTIME HEATING NEEDS A LITTLE MORE
TIME OR THAT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO CAP DEEP
CONVECTION. MOST RECENT RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE LATTER WITH
THE DEPICTION OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS JUST BARELY CLEARING THE
DEEPENING 700-500 MB WARM/STABLE LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
NEWEST MESOSCALE MODELS ALLOWING EXPLICIT CONVECTION PRODUCE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING
PEAK HEATING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MOST
PRUDENT APPROACH IS TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CONSIDERING A WIND HAZARD IS IN PLAY CONDITIONAL ON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODEL
SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW VERY DRY AIR CENTERED AROUND 500 MB. THE DRY AIR
IS SYMPTOMATIC OF THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS THAT IS INHIBITING CONVECTION IN THE FIRST PLACE...BUT
WHICH ALSO COULD PROVIDE STRONG NEGATIVE BUOYANCY POTENTIAL SHOULD
INSTABILITY BECOME ADEQUATE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.

POINTS NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUDY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FORM SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL LEAVE A CLEARING TREND TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS SET TO ESTABLISH AREAS OF FOG IN SE MICHIGAN TOWARD
SUNRISE AS MIN TEMPS SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. PROJECTED MIN
TEMPS ARE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW SURFACE DEWPOINT OBSERVED DURING
THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH JUST A FEW DEGREES OF DRY ADVECTION
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO FOG COVERAGE IN OUR
AREA COMBINED WITH THE WIDESPREAD OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OVER
WISCONSIN/IOWA/ILLINOIS FROM THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE ANTICIPATED WAVELENGTH BROADENING OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE MONDAY WITH A CENTROID OF THE UPPER LEVEL
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT MAX BREAKING OFF OF THE RIDGE PEAK AND ROLLING
EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA. MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE RIDGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
PERIOD....BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH NO JET SUPPORT ALOFT...WILL MATERIALIZE
TO SOUTH OF THE OHIO/MICHIGAN BORDER. IT IS ALONG THIS FEATURE AND
TO THE SOUTH WHERE A BETTER CHANCE EXISTS FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. FOR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY. WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EAST...THE HEAT AND UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL GET STARTED WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
COMBINING TO PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY.

THE WEAK TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY OR FRONTAL ZONE IS THEN
FORECASTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR HAS
LOOSELY DEFINED AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONSOLIDATES INTO SOME
ORGANIZATION OVER GREATER PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA. A PLAN
VIEW OF MIDLEVEL OR 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOWS THIS WITH SOME SUB
7C 700 MB TEMPERATURES LIFTING ACROSS THE STATELINE INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IT IS A STEEP LAPSE RATE POCKET FROM
800-700MB THAT MAY THEN ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER/TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING A PRECIPITATION MENTION THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE AS POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
WORKING OFF WARMER MINS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A
FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS EASILY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECASTED TO ECLIPSE THE
90 DEGREE MARK.

EXTENDED...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE
FIRMLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL
BRING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

VERY QUIET MARINE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT FLOW AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB/SS
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




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