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000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 050452
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTH TO THE METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 042057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
AVIATION.....MM


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 042057
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
AVIATION.....MM


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 041707
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041707
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1207 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH MVFR LIMITATIONS THIS TAF CYCLE AS
HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 025 TO 035 HUNDRED FEET. THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME
HEATING HAS HELPED LIFT MOST SPOTS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THOUGH.
WIND GUSTS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE TEENS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING.
THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE AS ADVERTISED UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 041153
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...EXPECT PERHAPS MBS/FNT WHERE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER SOUTH...CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO 3500 FEET OR SO AND TREND TOWARDS BKN AS THIS FRONT CLIPS
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF DRIER...COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR DTW...MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT DURING THE MORNING

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 20Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 040847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040847
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RATHER QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS FRONT SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
TIME LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER ENHANCED BY MOISTURE STREAMING
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY COLD DURING
THE DAY AND LEADS TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED CLOUDINESS.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 OVER THE FAR NORTHERN THUMB/SAGINAW
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TO
THE OHIO AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE. THESE HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY COME
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE DAY CAP THE HIGHS AND LEAD TO SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
THE RULE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL
ALSO ASSIST IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND PROMOTE THESE COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST M-59 SOUTH...BUT SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF LOWS FURTHER NORTH GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 BELOW OR LESS IN SPOTS...BUT NOT
QUITE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERION OF 15 BELOW...AT LEAST NOT IN A
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT MANNER.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THE LARGE
WAVLENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BREAKING DOWN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST TWO ITEMS TO NOTE ARE THE FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDCHILLS FRIDAY MORNING TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. THE NEXT FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE IS THEN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP OVER ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DUE TO RETURN FLOW
KICKING IN ON THE COLD/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO HIGH STABILITY...THIS
IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FLOW SETUP. WINDSPEEDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECASTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN THE OVERALL SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY AND SOME
INCREASED PRECIPATION CHANCES. THATS ABOUT IT FOR THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS TIMING...PLACEMENT...STRUCTURE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
EXIST IN REGARDS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MAIN ITEM TO NOTE WITH THIS MARINE
PACKAGE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT
INDICIATIONS ARE WINDSPEEDS MAY REACH THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....99


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 040441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 040441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1141 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY A CLEARING
TREND THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE MORNING AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE
STRONGLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ITSELF WILL
HELP SCOUR OUR ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

FOR DTW... WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY INTO VFR POST FRONT
DURING THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 040240
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
940 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE EARLIER UPDATE EXPIRED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
AND BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP A BIT DURING THE EVENING. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH IS PART OF THE WELL MIXED PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
OF TODAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH
AFTER THE WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK BEHIND
THE TROUGH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM MAKES PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES IN SE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. COLD
ADVECTION WILL GAIN ENOUGH TRACTION DURING THE MORNING TO ONLY
ALLOW A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR
BEGIN TO FALL FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 032352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 032352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 032352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 032352
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS GUSTY WEST WIND PICKS
UP IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE MILDER AIR AND INCREASED WIND WILL ALSO
HELP LIFT CEILING INTO MVFR OVER THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER
FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILING ARE EXPECTED AT MBS
DOWN TO ABOUT FNT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BACKING WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DELAY ANY CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE DTW AREA BUT CEILING WILL LIFT TO BORDERLINE VFR DURING
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

FOR DTW... RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILING WILL OCCUR WITH A
WESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THE GUSTINESS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT MVFR CEILING WILL LINGER IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IMPROVING JUST INTO VFR POST FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  WEDNESDAY.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD ON WIND FROM 250 THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031958
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AS PRECIP TYPES AND CIGS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ IS
NOW EAST OF THE AREA WITH WARMER SFC AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH AT THE SFC TO
RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY...BUT
SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS DTW/DET/YIP AND POSSIBLY PTK
IN A FEW HOURS AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST FNT/MBS
WILL HOLD ONTO FREEZING RAIN A BIT LONGER AS THE WARM AIR LIFTS
NORTHWARD. WARM AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BR TONIGHT
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LOWER MI.

FOR DTW...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
AS THE +32 DEGREE AIR IS STILL RESIDING IN CENTRAL IL...BUT A
CHANGEOVER TO RA/DZ SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL
SHUT OFF THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE BR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN PTYPE AS FZRA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND RA/DZ THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 031958
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
258 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...TOPPED OFF WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ARRIVED...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING AN END TO THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH AND RISE ABOVE
32 DEGREES DURING THE RUSH HOUR. ALLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM...WITH THE
OTHER ADVISORY HOLDING TIL 7 PM. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WRING OUT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...TONIGHT WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING TEMPERATURES. DEEPER (925 MB) LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAKING MINS A BIT
CHALLENGING...AND FAVOR TEMPS HOLDING IN THE UPPER TEENS FAR
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AS CLOUDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
LOWER MI. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF HOLD SOME
LINGERING SFC TROUGHING BACK ACROSS CNTL MI THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW IN PLACE ALOFT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER
MI. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO 925-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WED AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR TO MAKE A STRONGER PUSH INTO LOWER MI. 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20 TO -22C BY THURS MORNING. A GOOD DEAL
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURS MORNING...TEMPERING WED NIGHT MINS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL PERSIST OVER SE MI INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

SOME MODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SLIDES EAST. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GRT LKS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
STILL HOLD TEMPS BELOW EARLY MARCH MEANS. NUMEROUS MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRI THROUGH MON. CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLES. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE QUITE DRY...SUPPORTING NOTHING MORE THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TYPE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ATTM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITE DO HOWEVER REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH-RIDGE
PATTERN OVER NOAM... WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINATE THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS BUILDING HEIGHTS
ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING
TREND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL VEER FROM S-SE TO WEST THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE STRAITS REGION. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
LAKE HURON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY WED MORNING AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON AS SOME DEGREE OF
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE INTO WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE WED INTO
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AS PRECIP TYPES AND CIGS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ IS
NOW EAST OF THE AREA WITH WARMER SFC AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH AT THE SFC TO
RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY...BUT
SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS DTW/DET/YIP AND POSSIBLY PTK
IN A FEW HOURS AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST FNT/MBS
WILL HOLD ONTO FREEZING RAIN A BIT LONGER AS THE WARM AIR LIFTS
NORTHWARD. WARM AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BR TONIGHT
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LOWER MI.

FOR DTW...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
AS THE +32 DEGREE AIR IS STILL RESIDING IN CENTRAL IL...BUT A
CHANGEOVER TO RA/DZ SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL
SHUT OFF THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE BR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN PTYPE AS FZRA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND RA/DZ THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031800
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AS PRECIP TYPES AND CIGS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ IS
NOW EAST OF THE AREA WITH WARMER SFC AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH AT THE SFC TO
RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY...BUT
SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS DTW/DET/YIP AND POSSIBLY PTK
IN A FEW HOURS AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST FNT/MBS
WILL HOLD ONTO FREEZING RAIN A BIT LONGER AS THE WARM AIR LIFTS
NORTHWARD. WARM AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BR TONIGHT
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LOWER MI.

FOR DTW...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
AS THE +32 DEGREE AIR IS STILL RESIDING IN CENTRAL IL...BUT A
CHANGEOVER TO RA/DZ SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL
SHUT OFF THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE BR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN PTYPE AS FZRA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND RA/DZ THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 912 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET (70-80 KTS)
TRANSPORTS SOLID 4-5 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES SOME MARGINAL
WARMTH OF ZERO TO 1.5 C AT THE LEVEL. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE
TAKING OVER AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...WITH BEST FORCING LIFTING
NORTH. AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESPOND...AND RISE
INTO THE 30S LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...BUT BETTER RATIOS/INTENSE RATES ON THIS FRONT END PROBABLY
PLACING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF AN INCH HIGHER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 709 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. FIRST...INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING IS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT LOW LEVELS
TO SATURATE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. SNOW CHANCES WERE EXPANDED IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.

00Z MODEL SUITE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL UP SLIGHTLY FROM M-59 NORTH AS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS.
IN FACT...PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN THUMB MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN ALL SNOW. HERE...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST AND APPROACH 4 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE I-69 AND M-59 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 2
OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR ICE
PELLETS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN WILL SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 QUITE
POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/ICE PELLET MIXTURE AT TIMES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69...AND THE LEADING ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MINIMIZE THE AFFECTS OF THIS ICE TO SOME
DEGREE. STILL...IT WILL BE A RATHER MESSY DAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN JUST A THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AS THE
MAIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDING ALTOGETHER FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUBZERO NIGHTIME READINGS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILLS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRY...STABLE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. A RESPITE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON A WELL DEVELOPED
THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SIGNFIICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO 1000-500MB HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
PLENTY TO SORT OUT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATON CHANCES AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LEAGUES APART WITH THE
PHASING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PV FEATURES.

MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS IN DURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......SF
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031800
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AS PRECIP TYPES AND CIGS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION /SNOW/ IS
NOW EAST OF THE AREA WITH WARMER SFC AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WORKING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH AT THE SFC TO
RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST TAF SITES CURRENTLY...BUT
SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS DTW/DET/YIP AND POSSIBLY PTK
IN A FEW HOURS AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE 32. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST FNT/MBS
WILL HOLD ONTO FREEZING RAIN A BIT LONGER AS THE WARM AIR LIFTS
NORTHWARD. WARM AIR OVER THE SNOWPACK SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BR TONIGHT
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LOWER MI.

FOR DTW...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
AS THE +32 DEGREE AIR IS STILL RESIDING IN CENTRAL IL...BUT A
CHANGEOVER TO RA/DZ SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL
SHUT OFF THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE BR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN PTYPE AS FZRA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND RA/DZ THIS
  EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 912 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...

GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET (70-80 KTS)
TRANSPORTS SOLID 4-5 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES SOME MARGINAL
WARMTH OF ZERO TO 1.5 C AT THE LEVEL. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE
TAKING OVER AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...WITH BEST FORCING LIFTING
NORTH. AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESPOND...AND RISE
INTO THE 30S LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...BUT BETTER RATIOS/INTENSE RATES ON THIS FRONT END PROBABLY
PLACING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF AN INCH HIGHER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 709 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. FIRST...INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING IS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT LOW LEVELS
TO SATURATE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. SNOW CHANCES WERE EXPANDED IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.

00Z MODEL SUITE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL UP SLIGHTLY FROM M-59 NORTH AS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS.
IN FACT...PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN THUMB MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN ALL SNOW. HERE...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST AND APPROACH 4 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE I-69 AND M-59 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 2
OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR ICE
PELLETS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN WILL SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 QUITE
POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/ICE PELLET MIXTURE AT TIMES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69...AND THE LEADING ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MINIMIZE THE AFFECTS OF THIS ICE TO SOME
DEGREE. STILL...IT WILL BE A RATHER MESSY DAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN JUST A THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AS THE
MAIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDING ALTOGETHER FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUBZERO NIGHTIME READINGS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILLS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRY...STABLE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. A RESPITE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON A WELL DEVELOPED
THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SIGNFIICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO 1000-500MB HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
PLENTY TO SORT OUT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATON CHANCES AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LEAGUES APART WITH THE
PHASING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PV FEATURES.

MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS IN DURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......SF
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 031412
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
912 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET (70-80 KTS)
TRANSPORTS SOLID 4-5 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES SOME MARGINAL
WARMTH OF ZERO TO 1.5 C AT THE LEVEL. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE
TAKING OVER AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...WITH BEST FORCING LIFTING
NORTH. AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESPOND...AND RISE
INTO THE 30S LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...BUT BETTER RATIOS/INTENSE RATES ON THIS FRONT END PROBABLY
PLACING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF AN INCH HIGHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 709 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. FIRST...INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING IS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT LOW LEVELS
TO SATURATE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. SNOW CHANCES WERE EXPANDED IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.

00Z MODEL SUITE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL UP SLIGHTLY FROM M-59 NORTH AS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS.
IN FACT...PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN THUMB MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN ALL SNOW. HERE...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST AND APPROACH 4 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE I-69 AND M-59 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 2
OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR ICE
PELLETS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN WILL SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 QUITE
POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/ICE PELLET MIXTURE AT TIMES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69...AND THE LEADING ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MINIMIZE THE AFFECTS OF THIS ICE TO SOME
DEGREE. STILL...IT WILL BE A RATHER MESSY DAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN JUST A THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AS THE
MAIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDING ALTOGETHER FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUBZERO NIGHTIME READINGS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILLS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRY...STABLE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. A RESPITE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON A WELL DEVELOPED
THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SIGNFIICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO 1000-500MB HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
PLENTY TO SORT OUT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATON CHANCES AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LEAGUES APART WITH THE
PHASING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PV FEATURES.

MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS IN DURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 610 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z BECOMING
STEADY IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO FZRA FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 17Z-18Z AND A MIX OF FZRA
AND PL FURTHER NORTH INTO PTK/FNT BY 19Z-20Z. KMBS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A PERIOD OF DZ/FZDZ WILL FOLLOW THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS THEN ENDING BY 01Z OR SO. BY THAT TIME A
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 13Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING. A TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF
FZRA/IP CENTERED ON 17Z-19Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-19Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 19Z-21Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 031412
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
912 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET (70-80 KTS)
TRANSPORTS SOLID 4-5 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES SOME MARGINAL
WARMTH OF ZERO TO 1.5 C AT THE LEVEL. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE
TAKING OVER AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...WITH BEST FORCING LIFTING
NORTH. AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RESPOND...AND RISE
INTO THE 30S LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE...BUT BETTER RATIOS/INTENSE RATES ON THIS FRONT END PROBABLY
PLACING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF AN INCH HIGHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 709 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. FIRST...INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING IS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT LOW LEVELS
TO SATURATE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. SNOW CHANCES WERE EXPANDED IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.

00Z MODEL SUITE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL UP SLIGHTLY FROM M-59 NORTH AS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS.
IN FACT...PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN THUMB MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN ALL SNOW. HERE...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST AND APPROACH 4 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE I-69 AND M-59 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 2
OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR ICE
PELLETS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN WILL SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 QUITE
POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/ICE PELLET MIXTURE AT TIMES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69...AND THE LEADING ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MINIMIZE THE AFFECTS OF THIS ICE TO SOME
DEGREE. STILL...IT WILL BE A RATHER MESSY DAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN JUST A THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AS THE
MAIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDING ALTOGETHER FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUBZERO NIGHTIME READINGS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILLS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRY...STABLE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. A RESPITE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON A WELL DEVELOPED
THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SIGNFIICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO 1000-500MB HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
PLENTY TO SORT OUT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATON CHANCES AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LEAGUES APART WITH THE
PHASING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PV FEATURES.

MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS IN DURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 610 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z BECOMING
STEADY IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO FZRA FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 17Z-18Z AND A MIX OF FZRA
AND PL FURTHER NORTH INTO PTK/FNT BY 19Z-20Z. KMBS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A PERIOD OF DZ/FZDZ WILL FOLLOW THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS THEN ENDING BY 01Z OR SO. BY THAT TIME A
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 13Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING. A TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF
FZRA/IP CENTERED ON 17Z-19Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-19Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 19Z-21Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031209
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
709 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. FIRST...INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING IS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT LOW LEVELS
TO SATURATE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. SNOW CHANCES WERE EXPANDED IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.

00Z MODEL SUITE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL UP SLIGHTLY FROM M-59 NORTH AS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS.
IN FACT...PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN THUMB MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN ALL SNOW. HERE...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST AND APPROACH 4 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE I-69 AND M-59 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 2
OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR ICE
PELLETS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN WILL SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 QUITE
POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/ICE PELLET MIXTURE AT TIMES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69...AND THE LEADING ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MINIMIZE THE AFFECTS OF THIS ICE TO SOME
DEGREE. STILL...IT WILL BE A RATHER MESSY DAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN JUST A THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AS THE
MAIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDING ALTOGETHER FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUBZERO NIGHTIME READINGS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILLS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRY...STABLE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. A RESPITE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON A WELL DEVELOPED
THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SIGNFIICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO 1000-500MB HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
PLENTY TO SORT OUT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATON CHANCES AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LEAGUES APART WITH THE
PHASING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PV FEATURES.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS IN DURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 610 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z BECOMING
STEADY IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO FZRA FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 17Z-18Z AND A MIX OF FZRA
AND PL FURTHER NORTH INTO PTK/FNT BY 19Z-20Z. KMBS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A PERIOD OF DZ/FZDZ WILL FOLLOW THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS THEN ENDING BY 01Z OR SO. BY THAT TIME A
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 13Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING. A TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF
FZRA/IP CENTERED ON 17Z-19Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-19Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 19Z-21Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 031209
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
709 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. FIRST...INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING IS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT LOW LEVELS
TO SATURATE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. SNOW CHANCES WERE EXPANDED IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.

00Z MODEL SUITE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL UP SLIGHTLY FROM M-59 NORTH AS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS.
IN FACT...PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN THUMB MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN ALL SNOW. HERE...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST AND APPROACH 4 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE I-69 AND M-59 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 2
OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR ICE
PELLETS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN WILL SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 QUITE
POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/ICE PELLET MIXTURE AT TIMES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69...AND THE LEADING ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MINIMIZE THE AFFECTS OF THIS ICE TO SOME
DEGREE. STILL...IT WILL BE A RATHER MESSY DAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN JUST A THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AS THE
MAIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDING ALTOGETHER FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUBZERO NIGHTIME READINGS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILLS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRY...STABLE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. A RESPITE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON A WELL DEVELOPED
THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SIGNFIICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO 1000-500MB HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
PLENTY TO SORT OUT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATON CHANCES AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LEAGUES APART WITH THE
PHASING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PV FEATURES.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS IN DURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 610 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z BECOMING
STEADY IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO FZRA FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 17Z-18Z AND A MIX OF FZRA
AND PL FURTHER NORTH INTO PTK/FNT BY 19Z-20Z. KMBS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A PERIOD OF DZ/FZDZ WILL FOLLOW THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS THEN ENDING BY 01Z OR SO. BY THAT TIME A
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 13Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING. A TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF
FZRA/IP CENTERED ON 17Z-19Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-19Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 19Z-21Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031209
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
709 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. FIRST...INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING IS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT LOW LEVELS
TO SATURATE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. SNOW CHANCES WERE EXPANDED IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.

00Z MODEL SUITE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL UP SLIGHTLY FROM M-59 NORTH AS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS.
IN FACT...PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN THUMB MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN ALL SNOW. HERE...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST AND APPROACH 4 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE I-69 AND M-59 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 2
OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR ICE
PELLETS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN WILL SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 QUITE
POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/ICE PELLET MIXTURE AT TIMES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69...AND THE LEADING ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MINIMIZE THE AFFECTS OF THIS ICE TO SOME
DEGREE. STILL...IT WILL BE A RATHER MESSY DAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN JUST A THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AS THE
MAIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDING ALTOGETHER FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUBZERO NIGHTIME READINGS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILLS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRY...STABLE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. A RESPITE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON A WELL DEVELOPED
THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SIGNFIICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO 1000-500MB HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
PLENTY TO SORT OUT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATON CHANCES AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LEAGUES APART WITH THE
PHASING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PV FEATURES.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS IN DURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 610 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z BECOMING
STEADY IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO FZRA FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 17Z-18Z AND A MIX OF FZRA
AND PL FURTHER NORTH INTO PTK/FNT BY 19Z-20Z. KMBS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A PERIOD OF DZ/FZDZ WILL FOLLOW THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS THEN ENDING BY 01Z OR SO. BY THAT TIME A
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 13Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING. A TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF
FZRA/IP CENTERED ON 17Z-19Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-19Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 19Z-21Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 031209
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
709 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SEEMS
TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. FIRST...INITIAL MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING IS
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT LOW LEVELS
TO SATURATE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. SNOW CHANCES WERE EXPANDED IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z.

00Z MODEL SUITE IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL UP SLIGHTLY FROM M-59 NORTH AS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS.
IN FACT...PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN THUMB MAY
VERY WELL REMAIN ALL SNOW. HERE...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST AND APPROACH 4 INCHES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE I-69 AND M-59 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 2
OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO STATE LINE.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR ICE
PELLETS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN WILL SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-69 QUITE
POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL SNOW OR A SNOW/ICE PELLET MIXTURE AT TIMES.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH
IN SOME AREAS BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69...AND THE LEADING ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW WILL ACTUALLY MINIMIZE THE AFFECTS OF THIS ICE TO SOME
DEGREE. STILL...IT WILL BE A RATHER MESSY DAY WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AT TIMES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN JUST A THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STRIP AWAY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AS THE
MAIN LAYER OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDING ALTOGETHER FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE WAVELENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH SUBZERO NIGHTIME READINGS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THE ITEMS OF NOTE IN THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIND
CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDCHILLS TO RANGE BETWEEN
15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE DRY...STABLE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. A RESPITE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON A WELL DEVELOPED
THERMAL RIDGE STRUCTURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
SIGNFIICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO 1000-500MB HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
PLENTY TO SORT OUT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATON CHANCES AND TIMING
FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LEAGUES APART WITH THE
PHASING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PV FEATURES.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH
GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS IN DURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 610 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z BECOMING
STEADY IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO FZRA FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 17Z-18Z AND A MIX OF FZRA
AND PL FURTHER NORTH INTO PTK/FNT BY 19Z-20Z. KMBS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A PERIOD OF DZ/FZDZ WILL FOLLOW THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS THEN ENDING BY 01Z OR SO. BY THAT TIME A
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 13Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING. A TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF
FZRA/IP CENTERED ON 17Z-19Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-19Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 19Z-21Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031110
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z BECOMING
STEADY IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO FZRA FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 17Z-18Z AND A MIX OF FZRA
AND PL FURTHER NORTH INTO PTK/FNT BY 19Z-20Z. KMBS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A PERIOD OF DZ/FZDZ WILL FOLLOW THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS THEN ENDING BY 01Z OR SO. BY THAT TIME A
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 13Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING. A TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF
FZRA/IP CENTERED ON 17Z-19Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-19Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 19Z-21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 031110
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
610 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z BECOMING
STEADY IN THE 14Z-16Z TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO
CHANGE TO FZRA FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 17Z-18Z AND A MIX OF FZRA
AND PL FURTHER NORTH INTO PTK/FNT BY 19Z-20Z. KMBS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND THEN IFR AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON...A PERIOD OF DZ/FZDZ WILL FOLLOW THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS THEN ENDING BY 01Z OR SO. BY THAT TIME A
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 13Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE THIS MORNING. A TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF
FZRA/IP CENTERED ON 17Z-19Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT 06Z TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* LOW IN VISIBILITY AOB 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-19Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 19Z-21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 030501
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
WITH TIME.  PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MVFR/IFR ALL LOCATIONS 14Z-18Z...BEFORE A SOUTH
TO NORTH TRANSITION IN PTYPE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS PTK NORTHWARD.   A
DEFINED 3-4 HOUR AFTERNOON WINDOW NOW IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FZRA AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MBS.   FINAL TRANSITION
TOWARD RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 14Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE MORNING.  TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF FZRA/IP
CENTERED ON 17Z-20Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 13Z TUESDAY MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 16Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-20Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 030501
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
WITH TIME.  PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MVFR/IFR ALL LOCATIONS 14Z-18Z...BEFORE A SOUTH
TO NORTH TRANSITION IN PTYPE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS PTK NORTHWARD.   A
DEFINED 3-4 HOUR AFTERNOON WINDOW NOW IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FZRA AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MBS.   FINAL TRANSITION
TOWARD RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 14Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE MORNING.  TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF FZRA/IP
CENTERED ON 17Z-20Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 13Z TUESDAY MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 16Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-20Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 030501
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
WITH TIME.  PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MVFR/IFR ALL LOCATIONS 14Z-18Z...BEFORE A SOUTH
TO NORTH TRANSITION IN PTYPE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS PTK NORTHWARD.   A
DEFINED 3-4 HOUR AFTERNOON WINDOW NOW IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FZRA AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MBS.   FINAL TRANSITION
TOWARD RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 14Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE MORNING.  TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF FZRA/IP
CENTERED ON 17Z-20Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 13Z TUESDAY MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 16Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-20Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 030501
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 13Z AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
WITH TIME.  PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MVFR/IFR ALL LOCATIONS 14Z-18Z...BEFORE A SOUTH
TO NORTH TRANSITION IN PTYPE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS PTK NORTHWARD.   A
DEFINED 3-4 HOUR AFTERNOON WINDOW NOW IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FZRA AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MBS.   FINAL TRANSITION
TOWARD RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED 14Z-15Z.
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN IFR INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH
OF ACCUMULATION LATE MORNING.  TRANSITION TOWARD A PERIOD OF FZRA/IP
CENTERED ON 17Z-20Z...THEN RA/DZ FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT AFTER 13Z TUESDAY MORNING.

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 16Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
  FZRA/IP 17Z-20Z...AND RA/DZ AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ075-076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 022331
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
631 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING.  PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.  A PERIOD ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MVFR/IFR ALL LOCATIONS 14Z-
18Z...BEFORE A SOUTH TO NORTH TRANSITION IN PTYPE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS PTK
NORTHWARD.  WILL GO AHEAD WITH A DEFINED 3-4 HOUR AFTERNOON WINDOW
FOR FZRA ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MBS.   EVENTUAL MOVE TOWARD
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR DTW...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY IMPEDE PROGRESS OF SNOW. CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5KFT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. APPROX START TIME FOR
SNOW IS 14-15Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS RISING TEMPERATURES FORCE A
CHANGE TO RAIN. IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF FZRA AND/OR SLEET 17Z-20Z. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/BR APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z / FZRA - SLEET 17Z-20Z
  / RA OR DZ AFTER 20Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 022331
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
631 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING.  PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.  A PERIOD ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MVFR/IFR ALL LOCATIONS 14Z-
18Z...BEFORE A SOUTH TO NORTH TRANSITION IN PTYPE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS PTK
NORTHWARD.  WILL GO AHEAD WITH A DEFINED 3-4 HOUR AFTERNOON WINDOW
FOR FZRA ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT MBS.   EVENTUAL MOVE TOWARD
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN IFR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FOR DTW...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY IMPEDE PROGRESS OF SNOW. CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5KFT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. APPROX START TIME FOR
SNOW IS 14-15Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS RISING TEMPERATURES FORCE A
CHANGE TO RAIN. IN THE INTERIM, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF FZRA AND/OR SLEET 17Z-20Z. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/BR APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z / FZRA - SLEET 17Z-20Z
  / RA OR DZ AFTER 20Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 022020
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1226 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL FOSTER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND
15Z. RAPID EROSION OF DRY LAYER WILL FAVOR QUICK REDUCTION OF
CEILING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE LEADING TO A LIMITED PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR DTW...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY IMPEDE PROGRESS OF SNOW. CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5KFT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. APPROX START TIME FOR
SNOW IS 14-15Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS RISING TEMPERATURES FORCE A
CHANGE TO RAIN. IN THE INTERIM, A PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET IS
POSSIBLE 17Z-20Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/BR APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z / FZRA OR SLEET 17Z-20Z
  / RA OR DZ AFTER 20Z

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 022020
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

HIGH CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER WIND FIELD ARE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS AND
ARE RACING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY INHIBITION TO RADIATING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS FROM THE REGION AND MAINTAINS A
LIGHT GRADIENT THROUGH 06Z. DURING THIS TIME, DECENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AREAWIDE. INCREASING SE FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BOUNCE
SURFACE TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD 20 DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FOUCS IS ON THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TUESDAY. IN
SUMMARY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 13Z. 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FOR I-94 COUNTIES AND SOUTH...WITH 2-4 INCHES
NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO 0.1 INCH ICE IS POSSIBLE FROM THE I-69
CORRDIOR SOUTHWARD. BRUNT OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-21Z.

GOOD INTERMODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF LOCAL IMPACTS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN CA UPPER LOW AND ZIP
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NO REAL PHASING
BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...SO EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO BE A RELATIVELY
QUICK-HITTER. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH...WITH NAM
PROGS SHOWING PWAT NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE OHIO BORDER FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD AROUND 21Z...AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING H85-H7 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY OF 4-6 G/KG FROM 15-24Z. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT.

DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND
EVOLUTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING P TYPE. GENERAL PROGRESSION WILL BE
SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER BETWEEN H9 AND H7 MUST BE OVERCOME...SO LIFT
WILL INITIALLY GO TO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER THOUGH WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ROUGHLY 13-15Z AND QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND
H8 POKES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPS ARE A TOUGH
CALL...WITH WAA BEING OFFSET BY WET BULBING. THERE DOES EXIST A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 ROUGHLY 17-21Z AS
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING
UNTIL 18-21Z. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR A GOOD ICING EVENT GIVEN THE STRONG WAA /LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR RESUPPLY/ AND MARGINAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM NOSE. BACK ROADS
WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER IMPACTS THOUGH GIVEN FROZEN GROUND AND MAY
SEE LIQUID FREEZING ON SURFACES EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE 15-21Z GIVEN THE
MOISTURE QUALITY AND REDUCED STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY CROSS SECTIONS...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP SHIELD.

MODEL QPF CONSENSUS IS NOT GREAT WITH ECMWF SPITTING OUT A BROAD
0.25 AROSS THE AREA WHILE NAM APPEARS TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE
DRY SLOT DRYING THINGS OUT OVER THE NORTH AND SHOWING ENHANCED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY SLOT LEADING TO LOCALLY UP TO
0.50". OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WITH 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTH TO 0.35"
ACROSS THE SOUTH...THOUGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP IT WILL
LIKELY NOT END UP BEING A SMOOTH DISTRIBUTION. A COMBINATION OF THE
DRY SLOT ARRIVAL AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PEELING OFF TO THE EAST WILL
CAUSE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END 21-00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS
THIS OCCURS. CAA ENSUES AFTER 00Z AS WINDS VEER WESTERLY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY 12Z WED.

LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION
/850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -22C BY 06Z THURS/. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WED HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE ERN US AND LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL INTENSIFY THE
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES /190+ KTS/ ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO RESIDE
OVER SE MI. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES MAY
SUSTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS WELL INTO WED NIGHT...SUPPORTING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO WED NIGHT MINS /AROUND ZERO/.

THURS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER LOWER MI.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP COLD POOL TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRI
INTO SATURDAY. THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CANADA. THE WAVELENGTH
WILL JUST NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS THE LAST MONTH. THIS AND SEVERAL
SHORTER WAVELENGTH PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL HOLD TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLY MARCH MEANS DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE STRAITS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
THEN VEER TO THE WEST TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS ON WED AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO EXCEED TWO HOURS
IN DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GALE WATCH
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1226 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL FOSTER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND
15Z. RAPID EROSION OF DRY LAYER WILL FAVOR QUICK REDUCTION OF
CEILING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE LEADING TO A LIMITED PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR DTW...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY IMPEDE PROGRESS OF SNOW. CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5KFT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. APPROX START TIME FOR
SNOW IS 14-15Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS RISING TEMPERATURES FORCE A
CHANGE TO RAIN. IN THE INTERIM, A PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET IS
POSSIBLE 17Z-20Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/BR APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z / FZRA OR SLEET 17Z-20Z
  / RA OR DZ AFTER 20Z

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DT/SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021726
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1226 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015


.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL FOSTER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND
15Z. RAPID EROSION OF DRY LAYER WILL FAVOR QUICK REDUCTION OF
CEILING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE LEADING TO A LIMITED PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR DTW...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY IMPEDE PROGRESS OF SNOW. CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5KFT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. APPROX START TIME FOR
SNOW IS 14-15Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS RISING TEMPERATURES FORCE A
CHANGE TO RAIN. IN THE INTERIM, A PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET IS
POSSIBLE 17Z-20Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/BR APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z / FZRA OR SLEET 17Z-20Z
  / RA OR DZ AFTER 20Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021726
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1226 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015


.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL FOSTER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND
15Z. RAPID EROSION OF DRY LAYER WILL FAVOR QUICK REDUCTION OF
CEILING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE LEADING TO A LIMITED PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR DTW...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY IMPEDE PROGRESS OF SNOW. CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5KFT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. APPROX START TIME FOR
SNOW IS 14-15Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS RISING TEMPERATURES FORCE A
CHANGE TO RAIN. IN THE INTERIM, A PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET IS
POSSIBLE 17Z-20Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/BR APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z / FZRA OR SLEET 17Z-20Z
  / RA OR DZ AFTER 20Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021726
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1226 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015


.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL FOSTER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND
15Z. RAPID EROSION OF DRY LAYER WILL FAVOR QUICK REDUCTION OF
CEILING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE LEADING TO A LIMITED PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR DTW...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY IMPEDE PROGRESS OF SNOW. CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5KFT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. APPROX START TIME FOR
SNOW IS 14-15Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS RISING TEMPERATURES FORCE A
CHANGE TO RAIN. IN THE INTERIM, A PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET IS
POSSIBLE 17Z-20Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/BR APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z / FZRA OR SLEET 17Z-20Z
  / RA OR DZ AFTER 20Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 021726
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1226 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015


.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BENEATH THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLACKEN THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING MORE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL FOSTER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AROUND
15Z. RAPID EROSION OF DRY LAYER WILL FAVOR QUICK REDUCTION OF
CEILING TO LOW MVFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE LEADING TO A LIMITED PERIOD OF IFR VSBY AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR DTW...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY IMPEDE PROGRESS OF SNOW. CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5KFT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. APPROX START TIME FOR
SNOW IS 14-15Z. A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY IN MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET BUT DURATION WILL BE SHORT. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS RISING TEMPERATURES FORCE A
CHANGE TO RAIN. IN THE INTERIM, A PERIOD OF FZRA OR SLEET IS
POSSIBLE 17Z-20Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/BR APPEARS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT AFTER 12Z TUESDAY

* MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE IN FOG AFTER 21Z TUESDAY

* HIGH IN SNOW AS DOMINANT PTYPE THROUGH 17Z / FZRA OR SLEET 17Z-20Z
  / RA OR DZ AFTER 20Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021107
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
607 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015


.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWERING TO 10KFT OR SO TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 021107
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
607 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015


.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWERING TO 10KFT OR SO TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020850
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1144 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PROCESS WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  A MODEST INCREASE IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN THE
OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE.  DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY
UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL EASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 020850
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1144 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PROCESS WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  A MODEST INCREASE IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN THE
OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE.  DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY
UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL EASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020850
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1144 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PROCESS WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  A MODEST INCREASE IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN THE
OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE.  DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY
UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL EASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 020850
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WASHES
OUT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING TO THE
EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME...THE AREA
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EARLY TODAY WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
LIKELY AROUND 30 IN PARTS OF METRO DETROIT AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOWNSLOPE INTO MUCH OF AREA AND WARM THE AREA A FEW EXTRACT DEGREES
LOCALLY.

ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE ENCROACHMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BASICALLY TOWARDS DAWN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LEADS TO SLOWLY
RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 IN
SOME LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTANT PTYPE
EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN STORY THERE BEING THE
INCREASING CHANCE OF A WARMING TREND.

FIRST WE WILL LOOK AT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL RELEASE AND WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WILL DEVELOP A STRONG POSITIVE TILT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE NEXT POLAR JET WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO
REDIRECT THE JET THROUGH CANADA WHILE PINCHING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO A PSEUDO CUTOFF UPPER LOW...MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE
RESULTANT SETUP IS ONE OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH VERY STRONG JET AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PHASING
WITH AN ARCTIC WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA OVER THE MACKINAC
STRAITS. OVERALL MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
SETUP...PRESENTING US WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTER PTYPES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BRUSH SE MI.
TYPICAL MODEL SHIFTS IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE PRESENT LEADING TO
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IS THE GEMREG BUT THIS MODEL FEATURES THE
SOUTHERN SFC LOW BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE AS IT DOES ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SOUTHERN SFC LOW GETTING INGESTED INTO THE STRONGER NORTHERN
LOW. THE JET FLARES UP OVERHEAD BECOMING +150 KNOTS WITH THE JET
AXIS THROUGH MID MI...WHICH ENCOURAGES THE ORGANIZATION FURTHER
NORTH. DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM FRONT BRINGS IN VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TO THE COLUMN...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 G/KG UP
TO NEARLY 500MB WITH VALUES NEAR 5 G/KG FROM ABOUT 700-900MB.
LEADING THETA E GRADIENT LOOKS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 12-
15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 18-
00Z. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS THE GUIDING FORCE AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM
PLAYS OUT THOUGH. EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THE STRONG WAA ALOFT RAISES
TEMPS ABOVE 0C AROUND 750-850MB...EXPANDING DOWN TO THE SFC TOWARD
00Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW AT THE ONSET AFTER 12Z CHANGING TO
PELLETS/SLEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY...THEN
LIKELY ALL RAIN BY 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH THE THERMAL
PROFILE...THOUGH A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS...CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTYPES WILL REMAIN MORE OF THE FROZEN VARIETY. A DRY SLOT
WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER 00Z LIMITING MOISTURE TO THE LOWEST PART
OF THE COLUMN WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT...AND LATER ARCTIC FRONT BRING BACK COLDER TEMPS AND A
CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW.

TOTAL QPF FOR THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.3 INCHES. SNOWFALL
FROM THE FRONT END OF THE END LOOKS TO MAX OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AN ENHANCED FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD LEAD TO HIGH AMOUNTS BUT THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
THROUGH AT THAT POINT AND SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A LONGER DURATION OF
PURE RAIN WITH SFC TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 40F. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS FROM ABOUT M59 SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED
REFINEMENT TO PTYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES HANDLED
BY MORE HIRES MODELS.

BEYOND THE STORM...THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF LOW TEMPS NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS. BUT AFTER THAT...RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH HEIGHTS ON THE RISE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST HIGHS WILL BE TAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A QUITE STRETCH OF WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TODAY
AND BRING A FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING AS COLD AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD TONIGHT BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPAND INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE
INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS REACHING NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1144 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PROCESS WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  A MODEST INCREASE IN
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...RESULTING IN THE
OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE.  DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY
UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL EASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





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