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000
FXUS63 KDTX 121041
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
541 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.AVIATION...

VFR CEILINGS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DIP
INTO IFR...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED (LESS THAN ONE INCH). IN
ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SOME
HEAVIER BUT MORE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS DURING THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AT THIS STAGE GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY
IN DEFINING BOTH TIMING AND DURATION...BUT QUICK/BRIEF DISRUPTIONS OF
VISIBILITY /LIFR-IFR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...
MID CLOUDS LOWERING WITH PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS THROUGH. ACCUMULATION PROJECTIONS CURRENTLY
AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.  INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS /300-310 DEG/
BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 25-30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. POSSIBLE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD BRING ABRUPT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DOWN TO IFR-LIFR...BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY YET IN POSSIBLE
TIMING/COVERAGE. DRY NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY PROMOTE SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEARING OUT SOONER THAN FORECASTED (9Z)...BUT RENEWED VFR
CU UP IS THEN FAVORED DURING SATURDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THIS MORNING MORNING...HIGH THIS
  AFTERNOON...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

* LOW TO REACH CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 300-310 DEGREES LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING /21Z-03Z/

* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 306 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE STRONGEST ARCTIC FRONT OF THE SEASON...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES OF
-25F OR LOWER...IS STILL SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THEN DEEPENING INTO SATURDAY AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT IN TERMS OF DURATION AND COVERAGE...STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE MORE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILL READINGS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
THUMB REGION WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED AFTER TRAVELING
ACROSS A LARGELY FROZEN SAGINAW BAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER...ZERO TO -5F...DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS AND ALSO DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL ALIGN NNW TO
SSE...AND FOCUS FROM I-75 WESTWARD. WIND CHILL READINGS OVER THE
THUMB WILL HOVER AROUND -20F FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS CLOSER TO -10F TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY AREA. WILL RUN THE ADVISORY FROM 03Z-16Z TO ENCOMPASSES THE
PERIOD WHERE -15F TO -20F WIND CHILL READINGS AREA EXPECTED TO BE
COMMON.

THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND PEAK ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ONLY INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE THUMB TO PERHAPS 15F DETROIT SOUTH. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE BITTERLY
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS/SHOWERS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEPS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AROUND THE BASE OF THE SLOWLY
EXITING ARCTIC AIR.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
INTO THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING FROM THE VICINITY OF ALASKA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST A DECENT PHASING OF THESE STREAMS BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. WHILE THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BRUSH
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS A LARGE MAJORITY OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST...TIMING OF THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES...AND THE EVENTUAL
INTERACTION OF THEM...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ESPECIALLY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHEN THEY
ARE BETTER SAMPLED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME RATHER PROGRESSIVE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS EARLY/MID WEEK SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
FURTHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST
INTO THE AREA.

MARINE...

AN ARCTIC FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS...AS STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND FRIGID AIR GLIDING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH-END GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE
FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY AND FINALLY BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVES AND FRIGID AIR WILL
ALSO CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 120806
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
306 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONGEST ARCTIC FRONT OF THE SEASON...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES OF
-25F OR LOWER...IS STILL SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THEN DEEPENING INTO SATURDAY AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT IN TERMS OF DURATION AND COVERAGE...STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE MORE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILL READINGS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
THUMB REGION WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED AFTER TRAVELING
ACROSS A LARGELY FROZEN SAGINAW BAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER...ZERO TO -5F...DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS AND ALSO DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL ALIGN NNW TO
SSE...AND FOCUS FROM I-75 WESTWARD. WIND CHILL READINGS OVER THE
THUMB WILL HOVER AROUND -20F FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS CLOSER TO -10F TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY AREA. WILL RUN THE ADVISORY FROM 03Z-16Z TO ENCOMPASSES THE
PERIOD WHERE -15F TO -20F WIND CHILL READINGS AREA EXPECTED TO BE
COMMON.

THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND PEAK ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ONLY INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE THUMB TO PERHAPS 15F DETROIT SOUTH. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE BITTERLY
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS/SHOWERS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEPS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AROUND THE BASE OF THE SLOWLY
EXITING ARCTIC AIR.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
INTO THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING FROM THE VICINITY OF ALASKA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST A DECENT PHASING OF THESE STREAMS BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. WHILE THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BRUSH
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS A LARGE MAJORITY OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST...TIMING OF THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES...AND THE EVENTUAL
INTERACTION OF THEM...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ESPECIALLY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHEN THEY
ARE BETTER SAMPLED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME RATHER PROGRESSIVE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS EARLY/MID WEEK SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
FURTHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS...AS STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND FRIGID AIR GLIDING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH-END GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE
FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY AND FINALLY BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVES AND FRIGID AIR WILL
ALSO CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TRANSIENT FRAGMENTS OF SCT VFR LAKE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT THROUGH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION FRIDAY ON THE STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY- MID
AFTERNOON PERIOD. ATTENDANT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
PEAKING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER BUT MORE LOCALIZED SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AT
THIS STAGE GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN DEFINING BOTH TIMING AND
DURATION... BUT QUICK/BRIEF DISRUPTIONS OF VISIBILITY /LIFR-IFR/
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE OCCASIONAL CEILING BELOW
5000 FT POSSIBLE AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.  INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS /300-310 DEG/ BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
GUSTS PEAKING 25-28 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  POSSIBLE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD BRING ABRUPT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN
TO IFR-LIFR...HIGH UNCERTAINTY YET IN POSSIBLE TIMING/COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON

* LOW TO REACH CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 300-310 DEGREES LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING /21Z-03Z/

* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 120806
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
306 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONGEST ARCTIC FRONT OF THE SEASON...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES OF
-25F OR LOWER...IS STILL SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THEN DEEPENING INTO SATURDAY AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT IN TERMS OF DURATION AND COVERAGE...STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE MORE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILL READINGS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
THUMB REGION WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED AFTER TRAVELING
ACROSS A LARGELY FROZEN SAGINAW BAY. IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER...ZERO TO -5F...DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS AND ALSO DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL ALIGN NNW TO
SSE...AND FOCUS FROM I-75 WESTWARD. WIND CHILL READINGS OVER THE
THUMB WILL HOVER AROUND -20F FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS CLOSER TO -10F TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
ADVISORY AREA. WILL RUN THE ADVISORY FROM 03Z-16Z TO ENCOMPASSES THE
PERIOD WHERE -15F TO -20F WIND CHILL READINGS AREA EXPECTED TO BE
COMMON.

THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND PEAK ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ONLY INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE THUMB TO PERHAPS 15F DETROIT SOUTH. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE BITTERLY
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCES AN ABUNDANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS/SHOWERS. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEPS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AROUND THE BASE OF THE SLOWLY
EXITING ARCTIC AIR.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
INTO THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING FROM THE VICINITY OF ALASKA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST A DECENT PHASING OF THESE STREAMS BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. WHILE THE RESULTANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BRUSH
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS A LARGE MAJORITY OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST...TIMING OF THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES...AND THE EVENTUAL
INTERACTION OF THEM...WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ESPECIALLY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHEN THEY
ARE BETTER SAMPLED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME RATHER PROGRESSIVE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS EARLY/MID WEEK SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
FURTHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ARCTIC FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE SNOW SQUALLS...AS STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND FRIGID AIR GLIDING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH-END GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE
FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY AND FINALLY BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVES AND FRIGID AIR WILL
ALSO CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1151 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TRANSIENT FRAGMENTS OF SCT VFR LAKE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT THROUGH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION FRIDAY ON THE STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY- MID
AFTERNOON PERIOD. ATTENDANT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
PEAKING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER BUT MORE LOCALIZED SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AT
THIS STAGE GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN DEFINING BOTH TIMING AND
DURATION... BUT QUICK/BRIEF DISRUPTIONS OF VISIBILITY /LIFR-IFR/
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE OCCASIONAL CEILING BELOW
5000 FT POSSIBLE AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.  INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS /300-310 DEG/ BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
GUSTS PEAKING 25-28 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  POSSIBLE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD BRING ABRUPT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN
TO IFR-LIFR...HIGH UNCERTAINTY YET IN POSSIBLE TIMING/COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON

* LOW TO REACH CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 300-310 DEGREES LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING /21Z-03Z/

* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ049-054-055-062-063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 120451
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...

TRANSIENT FRAGMENTS OF SCT VFR LAKE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT THROUGH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION FRIDAY ON THE STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY- MID
AFTERNOON PERIOD. ATTENDANT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
PEAKING INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER BUT MORE LOCALIZED SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AT
THIS STAGE GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN DEFINING BOTH TIMING AND
DURATION... BUT QUICK/BRIEF DISRUPTIONS OF VISIBILITY /LIFR-IFR/
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE OCCASIONAL CEILING BELOW
5000 FT POSSIBLE AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.  INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS /300-310 DEG/ BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
GUSTS PEAKING 25-28 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.  POSSIBLE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD BRING ABRUPT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN
TO IFR-LIFR...HIGH UNCERTAINTY YET IN POSSIBLE TIMING/COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON

* LOW TO REACH CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 300-310 DEGREES LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING /21Z-03Z/

* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DISCUSSION...

A NUMBER OF FACTORS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE RIDGING TO FINALLY EXPAND
OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME VERY
WEAK LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON TODAY BUT THE
EFFECTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER HAVE BEEN NEGLIGIBLE. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/TROUGH IS MORE OF A TESTAMENT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMTH
STILL EXHIBITED BY THE GREAT LAKES...RATHER THAN THE DEGREE OF
THIS FIRST COLD AIR SURGE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TEENS WHICH IS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
EARLY/MID FEBRUARY AVERAGES. SO COLD...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
EXTREME.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE
CENTROID BUILDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE OHIO RIVER. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO
BREAK AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND EJECT ACROSS/NORTH OF THE MI/IN/OH
STATELINES. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS REMNANT CONVERGANCE TO PASS OVER
THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
FLURRIES IN THAT LOCATION UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THE FIRST ITEM OF SIGNIFICANT FORECAST INTEREST IS THE DETAIL OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-00Z FRIDAY.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE SOLUTION
SPACE ARE SUGGESTING A SPLIT COLD FRONTAL FEATURE OF SORTS WITH A
RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONFLUENCE BECOMING
ORGANIZED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TYPE STRUCTURE. THIS INCREASED
GRADIENT WOULD MARK THE FIRST COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SECOND AND
MAIN SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DROP ALMOST DUE SOUTHERLY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 21- 02Z. THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM A MORE WIDESPREAD/MEASURING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ADVANCE OUT OF
WISCONSIN...PROVIDING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 8 KFT
OF DEEP SATURATION WITHIN A LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MIDDAY SHOULD ALSO HAVE A LINKAGE TO THE
DGZ...SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING TO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH BETWEEN 15-21Z. WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE RELATIVELY MANAGABLE...UP TO 25 MPH.

THE 850 MB AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO PLUNGE
DIRECTLY THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. FOR SOME HI-RES
MODELS THIS IS JUST COMING WITHIN THE TIME HORIZON. THE SOLUTIONS
ARE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE QUALITY AND PRISTINE NATURE OF THE INBOUND
AIRMASS IS TOP NOTCH WITH THE FORECASTED 12Z SATURDAY 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF -27C COMFORTABLY BREAKING THE MINIMUM RECORD IN THE
KDTX/FNT UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. A CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS AND
INSPECTION OF DOWNGLIDE ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES DOESNT REALLY
SUGGEST ANYTHING JAW DROPPING WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
ORGANIZATION...BUT FORECASTER RECOGNITION REMAINS THESE ARCTIC
FRONTS ALWAYS SURPRISE AND PACK MORE OF A PUNCH DUE TO THE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM FRONTAL SCALE CIRCULATIONS. THE FEELING RIGHT
NOW IS THAT CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WILL EXIST BUT
BE VERY BRIEF FOR ANY ONE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
MARKEDLY UNDER THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE WINSPEEDS TO EASILY REACH 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OVER LAKE HURON...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON. IT IS APPEARING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR HURON
COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SECOND ITEM OF SIGNIFICANT INTEREST THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDCHILLS WILL GET IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. THE 11.12Z MODEL TREND CAME IN WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS.
THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST TUMBLING/EQUATERWARD PUSH OF
THE LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL PV FEATURE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT WINDCHILL HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. ATTM...IT APPEARS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE DETROIT METRO AREA MAY BE EXCLUDED AS
FORECASTED WIND CHILLS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST OF THE MORNING WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HEART
OF THE 1035 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WENT A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...BUT IT IS PROBABLE THAT NORTHERN OUTLYING AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE WIND
FLOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
NOTICEABLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL
LIKELY FEEL LIKE A HEAT WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKENDS SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS AND SUBZERO WINDCHILLS. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COMBINATION OF
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
LAKE HURON...WHERE SPEEDS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND FRIGID AIR GLIDING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH-END GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE
FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY AND FINALLY BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVES AND FRIGID AIR WILL
ALSO CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
     441>443-462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ361-362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...CB/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 112246
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
546 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...

SOME DOWNSTREAM EXPANSION OF EXISTING LAKE STRATUS WILL BE PLAUSIBLE
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST.  THIS MOISTURE
WORKING INTO AN OTHERWISE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AS TRANSIENT FRAGMENTS OF SCT/BKN LAKE CLOUD
DRIFT THROUGH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.  ATTENTION FRIDAY ON THE STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
PERIOD.  ATTENDANT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT ACCUMS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS PEAKING
INTO THE 30 KNOT RANGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ENVIRONMENT
MAY SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER BUT MORE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AT THIS STAGE GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY IN DEFINING BOTH TIMING AND DURATION...BUT QUICK/BRIEF
DISRUPTIONS OF VISIBILITY /LIFR-IFR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR DTW...VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE OCCASIONAL CEILING BELOW
5000 FT POSSIBLE AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH.
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.  STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME.  POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD
BRING ABRUMPT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO IFR-LIFR.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON

* LOW FOR CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* HIGH FOR PTYPE AS SNOW FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DISCUSSION...

A NUMBER OF FACTORS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE RIDGING TO FINALLY EXPAND
OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME VERY
WEAK LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON TODAY BUT THE
EFFECTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER HAVE BEEN NEGLIGIBLE. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/TROUGH IS MORE OF A TESTAMENT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMTH
STILL EXHIBITED BY THE GREAT LAKES...RATHER THAN THE DEGREE OF
THIS FIRST COLD AIR SURGE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TEENS WHICH IS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
EARLY/MID FEBRUARY AVERAGES. SO COLD...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
EXTREME.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE
CENTROID BUILDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE OHIO RIVER. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO
BREAK AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND EJECT ACROSS/NORTH OF THE MI/IN/OH
STATELINES. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS REMNANT CONVERGANCE TO PASS OVER
THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
FLURRIES IN THAT LOCATION UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THE FIRST ITEM OF SIGNIFICANT FORECAST INTEREST IS THE DETAIL OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-00Z FRIDAY.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE SOLUTION
SPACE ARE SUGGESTING A SPLIT COLD FRONTAL FEATURE OF SORTS WITH A
RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONFLUENCE BECOMING
ORGANIZED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TYPE STRUCTURE. THIS INCREASED
GRADIENT WOULD MARK THE FIRST COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SECOND AND
MAIN SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DROP ALMOST DUE SOUTHERLY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 21- 02Z. THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM A MORE WIDESPREAD/MEASURING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ADVANCE OUT OF
WISCONSIN...PROVIDING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 8 KFT
OF DEEP SATURATION WITHIN A LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MIDDAY SHOULD ALSO HAVE A LINKAGE TO THE
DGZ...SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING TO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH BETWEEN 15-21Z. WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE RELATIVELY MANAGABLE...UP TO 25 MPH.

THE 850 MB AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO PLUNGE
DIRECTLY THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. FOR SOME HI-RES
MODELS THIS IS JUST COMING WITHIN THE TIME HORIZON. THE SOLUTIONS
ARE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE QUALITY AND PRISTINE NATURE OF THE INBOUND
AIRMASS IS TOP NOTCH WITH THE FORECASTED 12Z SATURDAY 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF -27C COMFORTABLY BREAKING THE MINIMUM RECORD IN THE
KDTX/FNT UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. A CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS AND
INSPECTION OF DOWNGLIDE ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES DOESNT REALLY
SUGGEST ANYTHING JAW DROPPING WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
ORGANIZATION...BUT FORECASTER RECOGNITION REMAINS THESE ARCTIC
FRONTS ALWAYS SURPRISE AND PACK MORE OF A PUNCH DUE TO THE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM FRONTAL SCALE CIRCULATIONS. THE FEELING RIGHT
NOW IS THAT CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WILL EXIST BUT
BE VERY BRIEF FOR ANY ONE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
MARKEDLY UNDER THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE WINSPEEDS TO EASILY REACH 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OVER LAKE HURON...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON. IT IS APPEARING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR HURON
COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SECOND ITEM OF SIGNIFICANT INTEREST THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDCHILLS WILL GET IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. THE 11.12Z MODEL TREND CAME IN WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS.
THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST TUMBLING/EQUATERWARD PUSH OF
THE LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL PV FEATURE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT WINDCHILL HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. ATTM...IT APPEARS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE DETROIT METRO AREA MAY BE EXCLUDED AS
FORECASTED WIND CHILLS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST OF THE MORNING WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HEART
OF THE 1035 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WENT A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...BUT IT IS PROBABLE THAT NORTHERN OUTLYING AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE WIND
FLOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
NOTICEABLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL
LIKELY FEEL LIKE A HEAT WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKENDS SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS AND SUBZERO WINDCHILLS. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COMBINATION OF
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
LAKE HURON...WHERE SPEEDS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND FRIGID AIR GLIDING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH-END GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE
FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY AND FINALLY BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVES AND FRIGID AIR WILL
ALSO CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
     441>443-462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ361-362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...CB/DE
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 112105
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
405 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A NUMBER OF FACTORS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE RIDGING TO FINALLY EXPAND
OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME VERY
WEAK LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON TODAY BUT THE
EFFECTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER HAVE BEEN NEGLIGIBLE. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/TROUGH IS MORE OF A TESTAMENT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMTH
STILL EXHIBITED BY THE GREAT LAKES...RATHER THAN THE DEGREE OF
THIS FIRST COLD AIR SURGE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TEENS WHICH IS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
EARLY/MID FEBRUARY AVERAGES. SO COLD...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
EXTREME.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE
CENTROID BUILDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE OHIO RIVER. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO
BREAK AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND EJECT ACROSS/NORTH OF THE MI/IN/OH
STATELINES. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS REMNANT CONVERGANCE TO PASS OVER
THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
FLURRIES IN THAT LOCATION UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THE FIRST ITEM OF SIGNIFICANT FORECAST INTEREST IS THE DETAIL OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-00Z FRIDAY.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE SOLUTION
SPACE ARE SUGGESTING A SPLIT COLD FRONTAL FEATURE OF SORTS WITH A
RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONFLUENCE BECOMING
ORGANIZED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TYPE STRUCTURE. THIS INCREASED
GRADIENT WOULD MARK THE FIRST COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SECOND AND
MAIN SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DROP ALMOST DUE SOUTHERLY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 21- 02Z. THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM A MORE WIDESPREAD/MEASURING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ADVANCE OUT OF
WISCONSIN...PROVIDING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 8 KFT
OF DEEP SATURATION WITHIN A LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MIDDAY SHOULD ALSO HAVE A LINKAGE TO THE
DGZ...SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING TO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH BETWEEN 15-21Z. WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE RELATIVELY MANAGABLE...UP TO 25 MPH.

THE 850 MB AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO PLUNGE
DIRECTLY THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. FOR SOME HI-RES
MODELS THIS IS JUST COMING WITHIN THE TIME HORIZON. THE SOLUTIONS
ARE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE QUALITY AND PRISTINE NATURE OF THE INBOUND
AIRMASS IS TOP NOTCH WITH THE FORECASTED 12Z SATURDAY 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF -27C COMFORTABLY BREAKING THE MINIMUM RECORD IN THE
KDTX/FNT UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. A CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS AND
INSPECTION OF DOWNGLIDE ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES DOESNT REALLY
SUGGEST ANYTHING JAW DROPPING WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
ORGANIZATION...BUT FORECASTER RECOGNITION REMAINS THESE ARCTIC
FRONTS ALWAYS SURPRISE AND PACK MORE OF A PUNCH DUE TO THE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM FRONTAL SCALE CIRCULATIONS. THE FEELING RIGHT
NOW IS THAT CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WILL EXIST BUT
BE VERY BRIEF FOR ANY ONE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
MARKEDLY UNDER THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE WINSPEEDS TO EASILY REACH 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OVER LAKE HURON...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON. IT IS APPEARING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR HURON
COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SECOND ITEM OF SIGNIFICANT INTEREST THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDCHILLS WILL GET IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. THE 11.12Z MODEL TREND CAME IN WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS.
THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST TUMBLING/EQUATERWARD PUSH OF
THE LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL PV FEATURE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT WINDCHILL HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. ATTM...IT APPEARS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE DETROIT METRO AREA MAY BE EXCLUDED AS
FORECASTED WIND CHILLS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST OF THE MORNING WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HEART
OF THE 1035 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WENT A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...BUT IT IS PROBABLE THAT NORTHERN OUTLYING AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE WIND
FLOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
NOTICEABLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL
LIKELY FEEL LIKE A HEAT WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKENDS SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS AND SUBZERO WINDCHILLS. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COMBINATION OF
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
LAKE HURON...WHERE SPEEDS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND FRIGID AIR GLIDING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH-END GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE
FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY AND FINALLY BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVES AND FRIGID AIR WILL
ALSO CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 101 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES TODAY. CEILINGS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE MAINLY SETTLED INTO LOW VFR...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR AT FNT AND PTK...CLOSER TO THE LAKE. FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT AS WE ALSO
ADVECT SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HOWEVER AS THE WINDS SHIFT FOR CLOUDS RELEASING OFF THE LAKE OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO STREAM OVERHEAD AND KEEP CEILINGS INTACT FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM PTK NORTH. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DROP CEILINGS
BACK TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH OF DTW.
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET...BUT THERE MAY
BE A FEW BREAKS AS TYPICALLY CONSISTENT WITH LAKE EFFECT. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SHIFT IN
FLOW OVER THE LAKE FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PULL
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...DROPPING
CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AND PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH 01Z TONIGHT.

* LOW FOR CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
     441>443-462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ361-362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB/DE
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 112105
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
405 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A NUMBER OF FACTORS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE RIDGING TO FINALLY EXPAND
OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME VERY
WEAK LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON TODAY BUT THE
EFFECTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER HAVE BEEN NEGLIGIBLE. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/TROUGH IS MORE OF A TESTAMENT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMTH
STILL EXHIBITED BY THE GREAT LAKES...RATHER THAN THE DEGREE OF
THIS FIRST COLD AIR SURGE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TEENS WHICH IS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
EARLY/MID FEBRUARY AVERAGES. SO COLD...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
EXTREME.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE
CENTROID BUILDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE OHIO RIVER. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO
BREAK AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE AND EJECT ACROSS/NORTH OF THE MI/IN/OH
STATELINES. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS REMNANT CONVERGANCE TO PASS OVER
THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
FLURRIES IN THAT LOCATION UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THE FIRST ITEM OF SIGNIFICANT FORECAST INTEREST IS THE DETAIL OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-00Z FRIDAY.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE SOLUTION
SPACE ARE SUGGESTING A SPLIT COLD FRONTAL FEATURE OF SORTS WITH A
RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONFLUENCE BECOMING
ORGANIZED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TYPE STRUCTURE. THIS INCREASED
GRADIENT WOULD MARK THE FIRST COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SECOND AND
MAIN SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DROP ALMOST DUE SOUTHERLY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN BETWEEN 21- 02Z. THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM A MORE WIDESPREAD/MEASURING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ADVANCE OUT OF
WISCONSIN...PROVIDING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEPER SATURATION
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 8 KFT
OF DEEP SATURATION WITHIN A LAYER OF LOW STATIC STABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MIDDAY SHOULD ALSO HAVE A LINKAGE TO THE
DGZ...SO IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE A DUSTING TO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH BETWEEN 15-21Z. WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE RELATIVELY MANAGABLE...UP TO 25 MPH.

THE 850 MB AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS ARE THEN FORECASTED TO PLUNGE
DIRECTLY THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AFTER 21Z. FOR SOME HI-RES
MODELS THIS IS JUST COMING WITHIN THE TIME HORIZON. THE SOLUTIONS
ARE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE QUALITY AND PRISTINE NATURE OF THE INBOUND
AIRMASS IS TOP NOTCH WITH THE FORECASTED 12Z SATURDAY 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF -27C COMFORTABLY BREAKING THE MINIMUM RECORD IN THE
KDTX/FNT UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. A CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS AND
INSPECTION OF DOWNGLIDE ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES DOESNT REALLY
SUGGEST ANYTHING JAW DROPPING WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL
ORGANIZATION...BUT FORECASTER RECOGNITION REMAINS THESE ARCTIC
FRONTS ALWAYS SURPRISE AND PACK MORE OF A PUNCH DUE TO THE
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM FRONTAL SCALE CIRCULATIONS. THE FEELING RIGHT
NOW IS THAT CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WILL EXIST BUT
BE VERY BRIEF FOR ANY ONE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
MARKEDLY UNDER THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WITH LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE WINSPEEDS TO EASILY REACH 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OVER LAKE HURON...WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE HURON. IT IS APPEARING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR HURON
COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SECOND ITEM OF SIGNIFICANT INTEREST THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDCHILLS WILL GET IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. THE 11.12Z MODEL TREND CAME IN WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS.
THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST TUMBLING/EQUATERWARD PUSH OF
THE LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL PV FEATURE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT WINDCHILL HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. ATTM...IT APPEARS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE DETROIT METRO AREA MAY BE EXCLUDED AS
FORECASTED WIND CHILLS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST OF THE MORNING WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HEART
OF THE 1035 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WENT A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...BUT IT IS PROBABLE THAT NORTHERN OUTLYING AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE WIND
FLOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
NOTICEABLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL
LIKELY FEEL LIKE A HEAT WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKENDS SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS AND SUBZERO WINDCHILLS. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A COMBINATION OF
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
LAKE HURON...WHERE SPEEDS WILL REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND FRIGID AIR GLIDING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALLOWING GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH-END GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY EVENING...LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DECREASE
FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY AND FINALLY BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVES AND FRIGID AIR WILL
ALSO CREATE AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 101 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES TODAY. CEILINGS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE MAINLY SETTLED INTO LOW VFR...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR AT FNT AND PTK...CLOSER TO THE LAKE. FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT AS WE ALSO
ADVECT SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HOWEVER AS THE WINDS SHIFT FOR CLOUDS RELEASING OFF THE LAKE OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO STREAM OVERHEAD AND KEEP CEILINGS INTACT FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM PTK NORTH. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DROP CEILINGS
BACK TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH OF DTW.
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET...BUT THERE MAY
BE A FEW BREAKS AS TYPICALLY CONSISTENT WITH LAKE EFFECT. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SHIFT IN
FLOW OVER THE LAKE FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PULL
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...DROPPING
CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AND PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH 01Z TONIGHT.

* LOW FOR CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ363-421-
     441>443-462>464.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ421-441>443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR LHZ361-362.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB/DE
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 111801
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
101 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016


.AVIATION...

NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES TODAY. CEILINGS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE MAINLY SETTLED INTO LOW VFR...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR AT FNT AND PTK...CLOSER TO THE LAKE. FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT AS WE ALSO
ADVECT SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HOWEVER AS THE WINDS SHIFT FOR CLOUDS RELEASING OFF THE LAKE OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO STREAM OVERHEAD AND KEEP CEILINGS INTACT FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM PTK NORTH. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL DROP CEILINGS
BACK TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR DTW...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH OF DTW.
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET...BUT THERE MAY
BE A FEW BREAKS AS TYPICALLY CONSISTENT WITH LAKE EFFECT. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SHIFT IN
FLOW OVER THE LAKE FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PULL
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...DROPPING
CEILINGS BACK TO MVFR AND PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH 01Z TONIGHT.

* LOW FOR CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DISCUSSION...

DEPARTURE OF LARGE SCALE MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR DRY CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
INDIVIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT MOST
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE SUPERIOR-HURON BAND PRESENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. INTENSITY OF THE LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY, TURNING THE FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RELEASE THE LAKE TROUGH
AND ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS THIS OCCURS. COLD AIRMASS FEATURING 850MB TEMPS -20C AT
12Z THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

BY TONIGHT, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE
BAFFIN ISLAND EXPRESS, ALREADY DISLODGED FROM ITS ORIGIN AT PRESS
TIME THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
PLAINS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
PARTICULARLY THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LATE, SO A NARROW WINDOW FOR DECOUPLING 00-06Z
AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER TEMPS WILL BE A SHORT TERM ISSUE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY THEN GETS INTERESTING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD POLAR LOW. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL RAISE 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM 0.3
G/KG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO AROUND 1.1 G/KG BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE AS 0-1KM THETA-
E LAPSE RATES FALL TO -3 TO -5C C/KM. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND THE LAKE PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. AT
LEAST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-
LIVED HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB
WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE HERE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAKE
HURON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THIS
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PRESENT OVER LAND AREAS, THE ONSHORE FETCH
IN HURON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. UPDATED HWO TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR JUST HURON COUNTY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURE DOWN
TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WIND
CHILLS FROM ROUGHLY 10PM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 7AM SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15F/WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
THUMB, PARTICULARLY IN HURON COUNTY WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DRIVE THE WC TOWARD BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. THE WIND CHILL WILL
REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID RADIATING SCENARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DUSTED OFF GEM
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO EXCEL WHEN COLD POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BY
SNOWCOVER, CALM WIND, ETC. TRENDED THE FORECAST COLDER TO AROUND -5F
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN DETROIT CITY.

MARINE...

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY ON MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE MORNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DIRECTION BACKS TOWARD THE WEST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE
HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF HIGH END NORTHWEST GALES AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DROP BELOW GALES
SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 111148
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
648 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED OVERALL TODAY COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS. VFR WILL BE A MIX OF CLEAR SKY AND LAKE EFFECT
STREAMERS OF STRATOCU...AND PERHAPS A FLURRY...AFFECTING THE MBS-FNT-
PTK CORRIDOR MOST OFTEN DURING THE MORNING. A DIURNAL BOOST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD BROKEN CEILING AND SOME FLURRIES OVER A
WIDER AREA. LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND WILL GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHICH COULD DIRECT INTO THE AREA SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN OR PROLONG CEILING LATER INTO THE EVENING. ANY
LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE SCOURED EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

FOR DTW... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS STREAMERS OF LAKE STRATOCU BRUSH THE TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING.
A GENERAL INCREASE IN VFR CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME VFR FLURRIES
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DISCUSSION...

DEPARTURE OF LARGE SCALE MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR DRY CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
INDIVIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT MOST
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE SUPERIOR-HURON BAND PRESENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. INTENSITY OF THE LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY, TURNING THE FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RELEASE THE LAKE TROUGH
AND ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS THIS OCCURS. COLD AIRMASS FEATURING 850MB TEMPS -20C AT
12Z THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

BY TONIGHT, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE
BAFFIN ISLAND EXPRESS, ALREADY DISLODGED FROM ITS ORIGIN AT PRESS
TIME THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
PLAINS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
PARTICULARLY THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LATE, SO A NARROW WINDOW FOR DECOUPLING 00-06Z
AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER TEMPS WILL BE A SHORT TERM ISSUE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY THEN GETS INTERESTING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD POLAR LOW. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL RAISE 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM 0.3
G/KG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO AROUND 1.1 G/KG BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE AS 0-1KM THETA-
E LAPSE RATES FALL TO -3 TO -5C C/KM. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND THE LAKE PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. AT
LEAST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-
LIVED HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB
WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE HERE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAKE
HURON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THIS
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PRESENT OVER LAND AREAS, THE ONSHORE FETCH
IN HURON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. UPDATED HWO TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR JUST HURON COUNTY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURE DOWN
TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WIND
CHILLS FROM ROUGHLY 10PM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 7AM SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15F/WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
THUMB, PARTICULARLY IN HURON COUNTY WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DRIVE THE WC TOWARD BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. THE WIND CHILL WILL
REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID RADIATING SCENARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DUSTED OFF GEM
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO EXCEL WHEN COLD POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BY
SNOWCOVER, CALM WIND, ETC. TRENDED THE FORECAST COLDER TO AROUND -5F
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN DETROIT CITY.

MARINE...

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY ON MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE MORNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DIRECTION BACKS TOWARD THE WEST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE
HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF HIGH END NORTHWEST GALES AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DROP BELOW GALES
SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 111148
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
648 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED OVERALL TODAY COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS. VFR WILL BE A MIX OF CLEAR SKY AND LAKE EFFECT
STREAMERS OF STRATOCU...AND PERHAPS A FLURRY...AFFECTING THE MBS-FNT-
PTK CORRIDOR MOST OFTEN DURING THE MORNING. A DIURNAL BOOST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD BROKEN CEILING AND SOME FLURRIES OVER A
WIDER AREA. LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND WILL GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHICH COULD DIRECT INTO THE AREA SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN OR PROLONG CEILING LATER INTO THE EVENING. ANY
LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE SCOURED EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

FOR DTW... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS STREAMERS OF LAKE STRATOCU BRUSH THE TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING.
A GENERAL INCREASE IN VFR CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME VFR FLURRIES
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DISCUSSION...

DEPARTURE OF LARGE SCALE MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR DRY CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
INDIVIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT MOST
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE SUPERIOR-HURON BAND PRESENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. INTENSITY OF THE LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY, TURNING THE FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RELEASE THE LAKE TROUGH
AND ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS THIS OCCURS. COLD AIRMASS FEATURING 850MB TEMPS -20C AT
12Z THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

BY TONIGHT, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE
BAFFIN ISLAND EXPRESS, ALREADY DISLODGED FROM ITS ORIGIN AT PRESS
TIME THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
PLAINS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
PARTICULARLY THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LATE, SO A NARROW WINDOW FOR DECOUPLING 00-06Z
AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER TEMPS WILL BE A SHORT TERM ISSUE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY THEN GETS INTERESTING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD POLAR LOW. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL RAISE 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM 0.3
G/KG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO AROUND 1.1 G/KG BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE AS 0-1KM THETA-
E LAPSE RATES FALL TO -3 TO -5C C/KM. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND THE LAKE PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. AT
LEAST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-
LIVED HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB
WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE HERE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAKE
HURON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THIS
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PRESENT OVER LAND AREAS, THE ONSHORE FETCH
IN HURON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. UPDATED HWO TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR JUST HURON COUNTY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURE DOWN
TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WIND
CHILLS FROM ROUGHLY 10PM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 7AM SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15F/WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
THUMB, PARTICULARLY IN HURON COUNTY WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DRIVE THE WC TOWARD BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. THE WIND CHILL WILL
REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID RADIATING SCENARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DUSTED OFF GEM
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO EXCEL WHEN COLD POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BY
SNOWCOVER, CALM WIND, ETC. TRENDED THE FORECAST COLDER TO AROUND -5F
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN DETROIT CITY.

MARINE...

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY ON MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE MORNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DIRECTION BACKS TOWARD THE WEST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE
HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF HIGH END NORTHWEST GALES AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DROP BELOW GALES
SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 111148
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
648 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED OVERALL TODAY COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS. VFR WILL BE A MIX OF CLEAR SKY AND LAKE EFFECT
STREAMERS OF STRATOCU...AND PERHAPS A FLURRY...AFFECTING THE MBS-FNT-
PTK CORRIDOR MOST OFTEN DURING THE MORNING. A DIURNAL BOOST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD BROKEN CEILING AND SOME FLURRIES OVER A
WIDER AREA. LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND WILL GRADUALLY BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHICH COULD DIRECT INTO THE AREA SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN OR PROLONG CEILING LATER INTO THE EVENING. ANY
LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE SCOURED EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT LEAVING THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.

FOR DTW... VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS STREAMERS OF LAKE STRATOCU BRUSH THE TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING.
A GENERAL INCREASE IN VFR CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME VFR FLURRIES
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DISCUSSION...

DEPARTURE OF LARGE SCALE MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR DRY CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
INDIVIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT MOST
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE SUPERIOR-HURON BAND PRESENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. INTENSITY OF THE LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY, TURNING THE FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RELEASE THE LAKE TROUGH
AND ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS THIS OCCURS. COLD AIRMASS FEATURING 850MB TEMPS -20C AT
12Z THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

BY TONIGHT, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE
BAFFIN ISLAND EXPRESS, ALREADY DISLODGED FROM ITS ORIGIN AT PRESS
TIME THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
PLAINS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
PARTICULARLY THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LATE, SO A NARROW WINDOW FOR DECOUPLING 00-06Z
AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER TEMPS WILL BE A SHORT TERM ISSUE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY THEN GETS INTERESTING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD POLAR LOW. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL RAISE 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM 0.3
G/KG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO AROUND 1.1 G/KG BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE AS 0-1KM THETA-
E LAPSE RATES FALL TO -3 TO -5C C/KM. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND THE LAKE PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. AT
LEAST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-
LIVED HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB
WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE HERE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAKE
HURON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THIS
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PRESENT OVER LAND AREAS, THE ONSHORE FETCH
IN HURON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. UPDATED HWO TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR JUST HURON COUNTY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURE DOWN
TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WIND
CHILLS FROM ROUGHLY 10PM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 7AM SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15F/WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
THUMB, PARTICULARLY IN HURON COUNTY WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DRIVE THE WC TOWARD BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. THE WIND CHILL WILL
REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID RADIATING SCENARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DUSTED OFF GEM
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO EXCEL WHEN COLD POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BY
SNOWCOVER, CALM WIND, ETC. TRENDED THE FORECAST COLDER TO AROUND -5F
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN DETROIT CITY.

MARINE...

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY ON MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE MORNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DIRECTION BACKS TOWARD THE WEST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE
HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF HIGH END NORTHWEST GALES AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DROP BELOW GALES
SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 110830
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

DEPARTURE OF LARGE SCALE MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR DRY CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
INDIVIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT MOST
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE SUPERIOR-HURON BAND PRESENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. INTENSITY OF THE LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY, TURNING THE FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RELEASE THE LAKE TROUGH
AND ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS THIS OCCURS. COLD AIRMASS FEATURING 850MB TEMPS -20C AT
12Z THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

BY TONIGHT, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE
BAFFIN ISLAND EXPRESS, ALREADY DISLODGED FROM ITS ORIGIN AT PRESS
TIME THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
PLAINS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
PARTICULARLY THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LATE, SO A NARROW WINDOW FOR DECOUPLING 00-06Z
AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER TEMPS WILL BE A SHORT TERM ISSUE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY THEN GETS INTERESTING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD POLAR LOW. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL RAISE 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM 0.3
G/KG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO AROUND 1.1 G/KG BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE AS 0-1KM THETA-
E LAPSE RATES FALL TO -3 TO -5C C/KM. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND THE LAKE PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. AT
LEAST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-
LIVED HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB
WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE HERE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAKE
HURON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THIS
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PRESENT OVER LAND AREAS, THE ONSHORE FETCH
IN HURON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. UPDATED HWO TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR JUST HURON COUNTY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURE DOWN
TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WIND
CHILLS FROM ROUGHLY 10PM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 7AM SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15F/WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
THUMB, PARTICULARLY IN HURON COUNTY WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DRIVE THE WC TOWARD BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. THE WIND CHILL WILL
REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID RADIATING SCENARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DUSTED OFF GEM
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO EXCEL WHEN COLD POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BY
SNOWCOVER, CALM WIND, ETC. TRENDED THE FORECAST COLDER TO AROUND -5F
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN DETROIT CITY.

&&

.MARINE...

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY ON MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE MORNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DIRECTION BACKS TOWARD THE WEST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE
HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF HIGH END NORTHWEST GALES AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DROP BELOW GALES
SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. THIS
WILL FAVOR A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLEAR SKY WITH SIMPLY THE OCCASIONAL
POCKET OF VFR LAKE CLOUD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THE ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER MI TO REACH MBS...POTENTIAL TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
AT THIS STAGE.  STEADY EXPANSION IN LOWER STRATUS BY MIDDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES ON THURSDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR AS THIS
PROCESS UNFOLDS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK INTO LOWER VFR.  FIRM
WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRATUS TO EMERGE BEYOND 15Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD...MEDIUM
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 110830
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

DEPARTURE OF LARGE SCALE MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR DRY CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
INDIVIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT MOST
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE SUPERIOR-HURON BAND PRESENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. INTENSITY OF THE LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY, TURNING THE FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RELEASE THE LAKE TROUGH
AND ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS THIS OCCURS. COLD AIRMASS FEATURING 850MB TEMPS -20C AT
12Z THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

BY TONIGHT, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE
BAFFIN ISLAND EXPRESS, ALREADY DISLODGED FROM ITS ORIGIN AT PRESS
TIME THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
PLAINS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
PARTICULARLY THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LATE, SO A NARROW WINDOW FOR DECOUPLING 00-06Z
AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER TEMPS WILL BE A SHORT TERM ISSUE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY THEN GETS INTERESTING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD POLAR LOW. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL RAISE 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM 0.3
G/KG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO AROUND 1.1 G/KG BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE AS 0-1KM THETA-
E LAPSE RATES FALL TO -3 TO -5C C/KM. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND THE LAKE PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. AT
LEAST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-
LIVED HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB
WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE HERE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAKE
HURON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THIS
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PRESENT OVER LAND AREAS, THE ONSHORE FETCH
IN HURON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. UPDATED HWO TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR JUST HURON COUNTY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURE DOWN
TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WIND
CHILLS FROM ROUGHLY 10PM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 7AM SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15F/WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
THUMB, PARTICULARLY IN HURON COUNTY WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DRIVE THE WC TOWARD BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. THE WIND CHILL WILL
REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID RADIATING SCENARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DUSTED OFF GEM
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO EXCEL WHEN COLD POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BY
SNOWCOVER, CALM WIND, ETC. TRENDED THE FORECAST COLDER TO AROUND -5F
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN DETROIT CITY.

&&

.MARINE...

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY ON MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE MORNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DIRECTION BACKS TOWARD THE WEST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE
HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF HIGH END NORTHWEST GALES AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DROP BELOW GALES
SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. THIS
WILL FAVOR A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLEAR SKY WITH SIMPLY THE OCCASIONAL
POCKET OF VFR LAKE CLOUD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THE ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER MI TO REACH MBS...POTENTIAL TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
AT THIS STAGE.  STEADY EXPANSION IN LOWER STRATUS BY MIDDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES ON THURSDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR AS THIS
PROCESS UNFOLDS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK INTO LOWER VFR.  FIRM
WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRATUS TO EMERGE BEYOND 15Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD...MEDIUM
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 110830
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

DEPARTURE OF LARGE SCALE MOISTURE HAS SET THE STAGE FOR DRY CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A PARTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO
INDIVIDUAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT MOST
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE SUPERIOR-HURON BAND PRESENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. INTENSITY OF THE LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND
EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY, TURNING THE FLOW
ANTICYCLONIC OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RELEASE THE LAKE TROUGH
AND ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS THIS OCCURS. COLD AIRMASS FEATURING 850MB TEMPS -20C AT
12Z THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20.

BY TONIGHT, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE
BAFFIN ISLAND EXPRESS, ALREADY DISLODGED FROM ITS ORIGIN AT PRESS
TIME THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
PLAINS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING
PARTICULARLY THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LATE, SO A NARROW WINDOW FOR DECOUPLING 00-06Z
AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER TEMPS WILL BE A SHORT TERM ISSUE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY THEN GETS INTERESTING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD POLAR LOW. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL RAISE 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FROM 0.3
G/KG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO AROUND 1.1 G/KG BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE THE LAKE AS 0-1KM THETA-
E LAPSE RATES FALL TO -3 TO -5C C/KM. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND THE LAKE PLUME WILL POTENTIALLY
BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. AT
LEAST CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-
LIVED HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGHER OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB
WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS REGARDLESS...LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE HERE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAKE
HURON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THIS
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PRESENT OVER LAND AREAS, THE ONSHORE FETCH
IN HURON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. UPDATED HWO TO
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A WIND HEADLINE FOR JUST HURON COUNTY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURE DOWN
TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0 DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WIND
CHILLS FROM ROUGHLY 10PM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 7AM SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF -15F/WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS LIKELY TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER IN THE
THUMB, PARTICULARLY IN HURON COUNTY WHERE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DRIVE THE WC TOWARD BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. THE WIND CHILL WILL
REMAIN BELOW ZERO AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ALL OF SATURDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID RADIATING SCENARIO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DUSTED OFF GEM
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO EXCEL WHEN COLD POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED BY
SNOWCOVER, CALM WIND, ETC. TRENDED THE FORECAST COLDER TO AROUND -5F
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN DETROIT CITY.

&&

.MARINE...

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY ON MODERATE
NORTHWEST WIND. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE MORNING FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY. BANDS OF SNOW SQUALLS
WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DIRECTION BACKS TOWARD THE WEST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE
HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF HIGH END NORTHWEST GALES AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE HURON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL DROP BELOW GALES
SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1158 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. THIS
WILL FAVOR A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLEAR SKY WITH SIMPLY THE OCCASIONAL
POCKET OF VFR LAKE CLOUD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THE ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER MI TO REACH MBS...POTENTIAL TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
AT THIS STAGE.  STEADY EXPANSION IN LOWER STRATUS BY MIDDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES ON THURSDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR AS THIS
PROCESS UNFOLDS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK INTO LOWER VFR.  FIRM
WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRATUS TO EMERGE BEYOND 15Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD...MEDIUM
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LHZ361-362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 110458
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. THIS
WILL FAVOR A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLEAR SKY WITH SIMPLY THE OCCASIONAL
POCKET OF VFR LAKE CLOUD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THE ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER MI TO REACH MBS...POTENTIAL TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
AT THIS STAGE.  STEADY EXPANSION IN LOWER STRATUS BY MIDDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES ON THURSDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR AS THIS
PROCESS UNFOLDS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK INTO LOWER VFR.  FIRM
WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRATUS TO EMERGE BEYOND 15Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD...MEDIUM
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...OVER THE ICE FREE
LAKES RESULTED IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGAN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND MIXING
CREATED MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE BREAKING UP THE LAKE BANDS...A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING...A LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL RELEASE AND DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MI.
THIS WILL UTILIZE AND FOCUS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.
THEN...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF LAKE MI WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES. DEGREE OF CLEARING
AND HOW FAST SKIES TRY TO CLEAR WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A FRESH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
THUMB WHERE TEMPS CAN TANK EASILY. SHOULD SEE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF ABOUT M59. NOT MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 DEGREES.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 5000FT WILL CENTER THE
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE MORE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS SEEM TO FAVOR FLURRIES. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN SKIRT THROUGH LOWER MI ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH.

MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C TODAY WILL FALL TO NEAR
-20C TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH THUS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 20 FOR HIGHS AND 10 FOR LOWS. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER HUDSON BAY...SENDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 0 DEGREES WITH GOOD CHANCE OF MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
NEGATIVE VALUES.

FRIGID TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN
WITH SHIFTING THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS /850 MB TEMPS AOB
-30C/ TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL LEAVING SE MI IN THE -25C RANGE. WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS 5 TO 15F AND 5-10KTS OF NW FLOW...WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME FRIGID WINDCHILLS. THIS COLD NW FLOW
NORMALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER...BUT HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN LES BAND EXTENDING INTO SE MI. CONFIDENCE LOW IN
THIS POTENTIAL SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. AT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.
LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY
OF SE MI TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD PUNCH DOES APPEAR TO BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER...AS MIDLEVEL WAA COMMENCES LATE SUNDAY...AND HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR 30 BY MONDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRUSH
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 110458
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. THIS
WILL FAVOR A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLEAR SKY WITH SIMPLY THE OCCASIONAL
POCKET OF VFR LAKE CLOUD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THE ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER MI TO REACH MBS...POTENTIAL TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
AT THIS STAGE.  STEADY EXPANSION IN LOWER STRATUS BY MIDDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES ON THURSDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR AS THIS
PROCESS UNFOLDS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK INTO LOWER VFR.  FIRM
WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRATUS TO EMERGE BEYOND 15Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD...MEDIUM
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...OVER THE ICE FREE
LAKES RESULTED IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGAN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND MIXING
CREATED MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE BREAKING UP THE LAKE BANDS...A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING...A LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL RELEASE AND DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MI.
THIS WILL UTILIZE AND FOCUS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.
THEN...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF LAKE MI WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES. DEGREE OF CLEARING
AND HOW FAST SKIES TRY TO CLEAR WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A FRESH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
THUMB WHERE TEMPS CAN TANK EASILY. SHOULD SEE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF ABOUT M59. NOT MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 DEGREES.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 5000FT WILL CENTER THE
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE MORE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS SEEM TO FAVOR FLURRIES. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN SKIRT THROUGH LOWER MI ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH.

MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C TODAY WILL FALL TO NEAR
-20C TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH THUS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 20 FOR HIGHS AND 10 FOR LOWS. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER HUDSON BAY...SENDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 0 DEGREES WITH GOOD CHANCE OF MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
NEGATIVE VALUES.

FRIGID TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN
WITH SHIFTING THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS /850 MB TEMPS AOB
-30C/ TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL LEAVING SE MI IN THE -25C RANGE. WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS 5 TO 15F AND 5-10KTS OF NW FLOW...WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME FRIGID WINDCHILLS. THIS COLD NW FLOW
NORMALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER...BUT HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN LES BAND EXTENDING INTO SE MI. CONFIDENCE LOW IN
THIS POTENTIAL SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. AT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.
LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY
OF SE MI TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD PUNCH DOES APPEAR TO BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER...AS MIDLEVEL WAA COMMENCES LATE SUNDAY...AND HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR 30 BY MONDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRUSH
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 110458
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. THIS
WILL FAVOR A HIGHER DEGREE OF CLEAR SKY WITH SIMPLY THE OCCASIONAL
POCKET OF VFR LAKE CLOUD THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.  LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THE ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER MI TO REACH MBS...POTENTIAL TOO LIMITED TO MENTION
AT THIS STAGE.  STEADY EXPANSION IN LOWER STRATUS BY MIDDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES ON THURSDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.  BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR AS THIS
PROCESS UNFOLDS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK INTO LOWER VFR.  FIRM
WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...VFR THIS MORNING WITH INTERMITTENT CEILING BELOW 5000 FT
AS POCKETS OF LAKE STRATUS FUNNEL THROUGH.  GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRATUS TO EMERGE BEYOND 15Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD...MEDIUM
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...OVER THE ICE FREE
LAKES RESULTED IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGAN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND MIXING
CREATED MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE BREAKING UP THE LAKE BANDS...A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING...A LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL RELEASE AND DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MI.
THIS WILL UTILIZE AND FOCUS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.
THEN...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF LAKE MI WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES. DEGREE OF CLEARING
AND HOW FAST SKIES TRY TO CLEAR WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A FRESH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
THUMB WHERE TEMPS CAN TANK EASILY. SHOULD SEE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF ABOUT M59. NOT MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 DEGREES.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 5000FT WILL CENTER THE
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE MORE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS SEEM TO FAVOR FLURRIES. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN SKIRT THROUGH LOWER MI ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH.

MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C TODAY WILL FALL TO NEAR
-20C TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH THUS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 20 FOR HIGHS AND 10 FOR LOWS. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER HUDSON BAY...SENDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 0 DEGREES WITH GOOD CHANCE OF MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
NEGATIVE VALUES.

FRIGID TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN
WITH SHIFTING THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS /850 MB TEMPS AOB
-30C/ TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL LEAVING SE MI IN THE -25C RANGE. WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS 5 TO 15F AND 5-10KTS OF NW FLOW...WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME FRIGID WINDCHILLS. THIS COLD NW FLOW
NORMALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER...BUT HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN LES BAND EXTENDING INTO SE MI. CONFIDENCE LOW IN
THIS POTENTIAL SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. AT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.
LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY
OF SE MI TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD PUNCH DOES APPEAR TO BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER...AS MIDLEVEL WAA COMMENCES LATE SUNDAY...AND HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR 30 BY MONDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRUSH
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 102337
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
637 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCENTRATION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ANCHORED IN THE VICINITY OF PTK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS WILL YIELD SHORT DURATION DISRUPTIONS IN VISIBILITY
DOWN TO IFR.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
YET THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS THROUGH.  LOWER
CONFIDENCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR A GREATER IMPACT /BELOW MVFR/ TO
EMERGE ACROSS THE DETROIT CORRIDOR...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR NEAR TERM
TRENDS FOR A GREATER SIGNAL BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR A TREND TOWARD
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF VFR STRATUS THROUGH
THE MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE INCREASING WITH A DIURNAL BOOST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.  FIRM WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...SHRINKING WINDOW /THROUGH 02Z/ FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF
VISIBILITY/CEILING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.  RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE.  PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
FAVORED IN LIGHT OF CURRENT TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT PRIOR TO 04Z...LOW THEREAFTER TONIGHT
  THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...OVER THE ICE FREE
LAKES RESULTED IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGAN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND MIXING
CREATED MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE BREAKING UP THE LAKE BANDS...A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING...A LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL RELEASE AND DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MI.
THIS WILL UTILIZE AND FOCUS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.
THEN...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF LAKE MI WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES. DEGREE OF CLEARING
AND HOW FAST SKIES TRY TO CLEAR WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A FRESH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
THUMB WHERE TEMPS CAN TANK EASILY. SHOULD SEE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF ABOUT M59. NOT MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 DEGREES.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 5000FT WILL CENTER THE
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE MORE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS SEEM TO FAVOR FLURRIES. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN SKIRT THROUGH LOWER MI ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH.

MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C TODAY WILL FALL TO NEAR
-20C TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH THUS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 20 FOR HIGHS AND 10 FOR LOWS. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER HUDSON BAY...SENDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 0 DEGREES WITH GOOD CHANCE OF MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
NEGATIVE VALUES.

FRIGID TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN
WITH SHIFTING THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS /850 MB TEMPS AOB
-30C/ TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL LEAVING SE MI IN THE -25C RANGE. WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS 5 TO 15F AND 5-10KTS OF NW FLOW...WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME FRIGID WINDCHILLS. THIS COLD NW FLOW
NORMALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER...BUT HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN LES BAND EXTENDING INTO SE MI. CONFIDENCE LOW IN
THIS POTENTIAL SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. AT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.
LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY
OF SE MI TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD PUNCH DOES APPEAR TO BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER...AS MIDLEVEL WAA COMMENCES LATE SUNDAY...AND HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR 30 BY MONDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRUSH
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 102337
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
637 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCENTRATION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ANCHORED IN THE VICINITY OF PTK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS WILL YIELD SHORT DURATION DISRUPTIONS IN VISIBILITY
DOWN TO IFR.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
YET THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS THROUGH.  LOWER
CONFIDENCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR A GREATER IMPACT /BELOW MVFR/ TO
EMERGE ACROSS THE DETROIT CORRIDOR...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR NEAR TERM
TRENDS FOR A GREATER SIGNAL BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR A TREND TOWARD
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF VFR STRATUS THROUGH
THE MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE INCREASING WITH A DIURNAL BOOST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.  FIRM WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...SHRINKING WINDOW /THROUGH 02Z/ FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF
VISIBILITY/CEILING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.  RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE.  PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
FAVORED IN LIGHT OF CURRENT TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT PRIOR TO 04Z...LOW THEREAFTER TONIGHT
  THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...OVER THE ICE FREE
LAKES RESULTED IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGAN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND MIXING
CREATED MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE BREAKING UP THE LAKE BANDS...A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING...A LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL RELEASE AND DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MI.
THIS WILL UTILIZE AND FOCUS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.
THEN...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF LAKE MI WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES. DEGREE OF CLEARING
AND HOW FAST SKIES TRY TO CLEAR WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A FRESH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
THUMB WHERE TEMPS CAN TANK EASILY. SHOULD SEE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF ABOUT M59. NOT MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 DEGREES.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 5000FT WILL CENTER THE
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE MORE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS SEEM TO FAVOR FLURRIES. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN SKIRT THROUGH LOWER MI ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH.

MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C TODAY WILL FALL TO NEAR
-20C TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH THUS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 20 FOR HIGHS AND 10 FOR LOWS. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER HUDSON BAY...SENDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 0 DEGREES WITH GOOD CHANCE OF MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
NEGATIVE VALUES.

FRIGID TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN
WITH SHIFTING THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS /850 MB TEMPS AOB
-30C/ TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL LEAVING SE MI IN THE -25C RANGE. WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS 5 TO 15F AND 5-10KTS OF NW FLOW...WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME FRIGID WINDCHILLS. THIS COLD NW FLOW
NORMALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER...BUT HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN LES BAND EXTENDING INTO SE MI. CONFIDENCE LOW IN
THIS POTENTIAL SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. AT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.
LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY
OF SE MI TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD PUNCH DOES APPEAR TO BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER...AS MIDLEVEL WAA COMMENCES LATE SUNDAY...AND HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR 30 BY MONDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRUSH
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 102337
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
637 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCENTRATION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ANCHORED IN THE VICINITY OF PTK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BRIEF
HEAVIER BURSTS WILL YIELD SHORT DURATION DISRUPTIONS IN VISIBILITY
DOWN TO IFR.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
YET THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS THROUGH.  LOWER
CONFIDENCE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR A GREATER IMPACT /BELOW MVFR/ TO
EMERGE ACROSS THE DETROIT CORRIDOR...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR NEAR TERM
TRENDS FOR A GREATER SIGNAL BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...A DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR A TREND TOWARD
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.  A LIMITED COVERAGE OF VFR STRATUS THROUGH
THE MORNING PERIOD...BEFORE INCREASING WITH A DIURNAL BOOST BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.  FIRM WEST-NORTWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY.

FOR DTW...SHRINKING WINDOW /THROUGH 02Z/ FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF
VISIBILITY/CEILING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.  RADAR TRENDS
CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE.  PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
FAVORED IN LIGHT OF CURRENT TRENDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT PRIOR TO 04Z...LOW THEREAFTER TONIGHT
  THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...OVER THE ICE FREE
LAKES RESULTED IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGAN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND MIXING
CREATED MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE BREAKING UP THE LAKE BANDS...A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING...A LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL RELEASE AND DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MI.
THIS WILL UTILIZE AND FOCUS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.
THEN...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF LAKE MI WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES. DEGREE OF CLEARING
AND HOW FAST SKIES TRY TO CLEAR WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A FRESH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
THUMB WHERE TEMPS CAN TANK EASILY. SHOULD SEE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF ABOUT M59. NOT MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 DEGREES.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 5000FT WILL CENTER THE
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE MORE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS SEEM TO FAVOR FLURRIES. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN SKIRT THROUGH LOWER MI ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH.

MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C TODAY WILL FALL TO NEAR
-20C TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH THUS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 20 FOR HIGHS AND 10 FOR LOWS. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER HUDSON BAY...SENDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 0 DEGREES WITH GOOD CHANCE OF MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
NEGATIVE VALUES.

FRIGID TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN
WITH SHIFTING THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS /850 MB TEMPS AOB
-30C/ TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL LEAVING SE MI IN THE -25C RANGE. WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS 5 TO 15F AND 5-10KTS OF NW FLOW...WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME FRIGID WINDCHILLS. THIS COLD NW FLOW
NORMALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER...BUT HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN LES BAND EXTENDING INTO SE MI. CONFIDENCE LOW IN
THIS POTENTIAL SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. AT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.
LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY
OF SE MI TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD PUNCH DOES APPEAR TO BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER...AS MIDLEVEL WAA COMMENCES LATE SUNDAY...AND HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR 30 BY MONDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRUSH
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-
     462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 102038
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR THE DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...OVER THE ICE FREE
LAKES RESULTED IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGAN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND MIXING
CREATED MORE CELLULAR STRUCTURE BREAKING UP THE LAKE BANDS...A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING...A LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WILL RELEASE AND DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH LOWER MI.
THIS WILL UTILIZE AND FOCUS ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN ONE
LAST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.
THEN...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF LAKE MI WILL SLIDE IN
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES. DEGREE OF CLEARING
AND HOW FAST SKIES TRY TO CLEAR WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A FRESH 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
THUMB WHERE TEMPS CAN TANK EASILY. SHOULD SEE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF ABOUT M59. NOT MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 DEGREES.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 5000FT WILL CENTER THE
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE MORE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS SEEM TO FAVOR FLURRIES. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN SKIRT THROUGH LOWER MI ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A HALF INCH.

MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C TODAY WILL FALL TO NEAR
-20C TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
THE COLDEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH THUS TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 20 FOR HIGHS AND 10 FOR LOWS. THIS CHANGES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER HUDSON BAY...SENDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 0 DEGREES WITH GOOD CHANCE OF MANY LOCATIONS REACHING
NEGATIVE VALUES.

FRIGID TEMPS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC UPPER LOW
PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED IN
WITH SHIFTING THE COLDEST PART OF THE AIRMASS /850 MB TEMPS AOB
-30C/ TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL LEAVING SE MI IN THE -25C RANGE. WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS 5 TO 15F AND 5-10KTS OF NW FLOW...WILL
STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME FRIGID WINDCHILLS. THIS COLD NW FLOW
NORMALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER...BUT HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN LES BAND EXTENDING INTO SE MI. CONFIDENCE LOW IN
THIS POTENTIAL SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. AT NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL.
LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND...EXPECTING THE MAJORITY
OF SE MI TO DROP BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD PUNCH DOES APPEAR TO BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER...AS MIDLEVEL WAA COMMENCES LATE SUNDAY...AND HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR 30 BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE
RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BRUSH
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1243 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK STABILITY IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR BANDED SNOW SHOWER
STRUCTURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
AGGREGATE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LOCALIZED INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE I 69 DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME.
STAGGERED A TEMPO IFR VSBY MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. INCREASING
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT BRINGS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FILLING BACK IN THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTION.

FOR DTW... WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST MOSTLY AT 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND STAY UNDER CROSS WIND THRESHOLD. BANDED TO
OCCASIONAL CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED DIURNAL SUPPORT. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL THAT AN ENHANCED POCKET OF CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE
RESIDUAL LAKE AGGREGATE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUT THERE IS
A GOOD SIGNAL THAT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OF 1SM WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT DTW BETWEEN 23-02Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 101743
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1243 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016


.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK STABILITY IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR BANDED SNOW SHOWER
STRUCTURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
AGGREGATE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LOCALIZED INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE I 69 DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME.
STAGGERED A TEMPO IFR VSBY MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. INCREASING
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT BRINGS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FILLING BACK IN THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTION.

FOR DTW... WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST MOSTLY AT 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND STAY UNDER CROSS WIND THRESHOLD. BANDED TO
OCCASIONAL CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED DIURNAL SUPPORT. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL THAT AN ENHANCED POCKET OF CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE
RESIDUAL LAKE AGGREGATE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUT THERE IS
A GOOD SIGNAL THAT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OF 1SM WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT DTW BETWEEN 23-02Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE GREAT LAKES ARE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
WINTER STORM PERSISTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C AT PRESENT
WILL PROBABLY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS UNTIL MONDAY CONSIDERING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND SPECIAL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25C TO -29C AND HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH LATE MORNING, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHERN LOWER
OVER TOP OF EXISTING LES ACTIVITY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY APPROACHING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING AN AREAWIDE HALF INCH
AT BEST AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE DEPTHS BY AN APPRECIABLE MARGIN TO
AROUND 7KFT. IN ADDITION, OVERLAKE 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO A MODERATE -4 TO -6C/KM. TOGETHER, THESE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A BOOST IN UPSTREAM LES. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUIDE A BAND OR TWO INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY IF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LAKE CONNECTION MAY ALREADY
BE IN PLAY IN SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE/OAKLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF THAT IS THE CASE, SOME PERSISTENCE AND A LATE MORNING
BOOST IN INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
HEALTHY LES BAND OF THE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN VARIETY EXTENDING INTO THE
CWA WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE, THE BULK OF WHICH
WILL DEPART WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E LAPSE RATES
WHICH ARE ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF THE SO-CALLED "DELTA-T" METHOD
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, RADAR TRENDS
WILL WARRANT MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STOUT GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PUT A FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. THE RAW NAM/ARW ARE
USUALLY SUPERIOR IN THESE CASES AND BOTH ARE RATHER WARM, BUT FRESH
SNOWCOVER GIVES REASON FOR PAUSE. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES REPRESENT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM/COLD GUIDANCE.

RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL STAGNATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN TODAY AS BACKING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS FOR
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN IF NOT BETTER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOTHERLODE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. FELT A BLANKED LOW CHC POP WAS WARRANTED GIVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND RAMPING UP OF BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL DIRECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN
BAY DUE EAST. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RAPIDLY FOLLOW
SUIT AND THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR FRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEREFORE RESIDE
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0 FRIDAY NIGHT IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10. THE PEAK WIND PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
APPEARING TO CARRY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PART
OR ALL OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE AN INTRODUCTORY MENTION IN THE HWO.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND MID LAKE IN THIS WIND
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BRUSH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 101743
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1243 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016


.AVIATION...

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK STABILITY IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR BANDED SNOW SHOWER
STRUCTURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
AGGREGATE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS LOCALIZED INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE I 69 DURING THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME.
STAGGERED A TEMPO IFR VSBY MENTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. INCREASING
COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT BRINGS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FILLING BACK IN THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTION.

FOR DTW... WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST MOSTLY AT 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND STAY UNDER CROSS WIND THRESHOLD. BANDED TO
OCCASIONAL CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED DIURNAL SUPPORT. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL THAT AN ENHANCED POCKET OF CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE
RESIDUAL LAKE AGGREGATE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUT THERE IS
A GOOD SIGNAL THAT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OF 1SM WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT DTW BETWEEN 23-02Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE GREAT LAKES ARE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
WINTER STORM PERSISTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C AT PRESENT
WILL PROBABLY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS UNTIL MONDAY CONSIDERING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND SPECIAL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25C TO -29C AND HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH LATE MORNING, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHERN LOWER
OVER TOP OF EXISTING LES ACTIVITY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY APPROACHING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING AN AREAWIDE HALF INCH
AT BEST AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE DEPTHS BY AN APPRECIABLE MARGIN TO
AROUND 7KFT. IN ADDITION, OVERLAKE 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO A MODERATE -4 TO -6C/KM. TOGETHER, THESE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A BOOST IN UPSTREAM LES. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUIDE A BAND OR TWO INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY IF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LAKE CONNECTION MAY ALREADY
BE IN PLAY IN SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE/OAKLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF THAT IS THE CASE, SOME PERSISTENCE AND A LATE MORNING
BOOST IN INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
HEALTHY LES BAND OF THE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN VARIETY EXTENDING INTO THE
CWA WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE, THE BULK OF WHICH
WILL DEPART WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E LAPSE RATES
WHICH ARE ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF THE SO-CALLED "DELTA-T" METHOD
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, RADAR TRENDS
WILL WARRANT MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STOUT GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PUT A FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. THE RAW NAM/ARW ARE
USUALLY SUPERIOR IN THESE CASES AND BOTH ARE RATHER WARM, BUT FRESH
SNOWCOVER GIVES REASON FOR PAUSE. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES REPRESENT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM/COLD GUIDANCE.

RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL STAGNATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN TODAY AS BACKING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS FOR
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN IF NOT BETTER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOTHERLODE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. FELT A BLANKED LOW CHC POP WAS WARRANTED GIVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND RAMPING UP OF BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL DIRECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN
BAY DUE EAST. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RAPIDLY FOLLOW
SUIT AND THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR FRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEREFORE RESIDE
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0 FRIDAY NIGHT IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10. THE PEAK WIND PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
APPEARING TO CARRY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PART
OR ALL OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE AN INTRODUCTORY MENTION IN THE HWO.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND MID LAKE IN THIS WIND
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BRUSH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 101202
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SUPPORTING EASTWARD EXTENSION OF SNOW
BANDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORY UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE
UPPER WAVE EXITS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. A RELATIVE BREAK IN
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
BEGINS AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AGAIN. CONTINUED NW WIND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE SOUTH OF FNT WHERE POCKETS OF
IFR RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
BETTER OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE BEFORE ADDING RESTRICTION TO THE
FORECAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
DISSIPATING TREND BEGINS. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF A
DECREASING CLOUD TREND AS WELL THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

FOR DTW... WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUST MOSTLY AT 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND STAY UNDER CROSS WIND THRESHOLD. THE WIND WILL SUPPORT
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARD DTW THROUGH MID
MORNING. WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL THEN BECOME MORE
PREVAILING VFR UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN. COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATER IN THE DTW
AREA BUT COULD ALSO SLIDE JUST SOUTH. PLAN TO LET OBSERVATIONS GUIDE
UPDATES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE GREAT LAKES ARE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
WINTER STORM PERSISTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C AT PRESENT
WILL PROBABLY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS UNTIL MONDAY CONSIDERING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND SPECIAL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25C TO -29C AND HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH LATE MORNING, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHERN LOWER
OVER TOP OF EXISTING LES ACTIVITY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY APPROACHING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING AN AREAWIDE HALF INCH
AT BEST AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE DEPTHS BY AN APPRECIABLE MARGIN TO
AROUND 7KFT. IN ADDITION, OVERLAKE 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO A MODERATE -4 TO -6C/KM. TOGETHER, THESE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A BOOST IN UPSTREAM LES. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUIDE A BAND OR TWO INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY IF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LAKE CONNECTION MAY ALREADY
BE IN PLAY IN SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE/OAKLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF THAT IS THE CASE, SOME PERSISTENCE AND A LATE MORNING
BOOST IN INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
HEALTHY LES BAND OF THE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN VARIETY EXTENDING INTO THE
CWA WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE, THE BULK OF WHICH
WILL DEPART WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E LAPSE RATES
WHICH ARE ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF THE SO-CALLED "DELTA-T" METHOD
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, RADAR TRENDS
WILL WARRANT MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STOUT GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PUT A FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. THE RAW NAM/ARW ARE
USUALLY SUPERIOR IN THESE CASES AND BOTH ARE RATHER WARM, BUT FRESH
SNOWCOVER GIVES REASON FOR PAUSE. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES REPRESENT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM/COLD GUIDANCE.

RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL STAGNATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN TODAY AS BACKING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS FOR
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN IF NOT BETTER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOTHERLODE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. FELT A BLANKED LOW CHC POP WAS WARRANTED GIVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND RAMPING UP OF BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL DIRECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN
BAY DUE EAST. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RAPIDLY FOLLOW
SUIT AND THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR FRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEREFORE RESIDE
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0 FRIDAY NIGHT IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10. THE PEAK WIND PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
APPEARING TO CARRY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PART
OR ALL OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE AN INTRODUCTORY MENTION IN THE HWO.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND MID LAKE IN THIS WIND
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BRUSH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 101202
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SUPPORTING EASTWARD EXTENSION OF SNOW
BANDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORY UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE
UPPER WAVE EXITS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. A RELATIVE BREAK IN
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
BEGINS AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AGAIN. CONTINUED NW WIND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE SOUTH OF FNT WHERE POCKETS OF
IFR RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
BETTER OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE BEFORE ADDING RESTRICTION TO THE
FORECAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
DISSIPATING TREND BEGINS. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF A
DECREASING CLOUD TREND AS WELL THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

FOR DTW... WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUST MOSTLY AT 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND STAY UNDER CROSS WIND THRESHOLD. THE WIND WILL SUPPORT
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARD DTW THROUGH MID
MORNING. WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL THEN BECOME MORE
PREVAILING VFR UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN. COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATER IN THE DTW
AREA BUT COULD ALSO SLIDE JUST SOUTH. PLAN TO LET OBSERVATIONS GUIDE
UPDATES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE GREAT LAKES ARE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
WINTER STORM PERSISTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C AT PRESENT
WILL PROBABLY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS UNTIL MONDAY CONSIDERING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND SPECIAL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25C TO -29C AND HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH LATE MORNING, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHERN LOWER
OVER TOP OF EXISTING LES ACTIVITY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY APPROACHING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING AN AREAWIDE HALF INCH
AT BEST AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE DEPTHS BY AN APPRECIABLE MARGIN TO
AROUND 7KFT. IN ADDITION, OVERLAKE 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO A MODERATE -4 TO -6C/KM. TOGETHER, THESE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A BOOST IN UPSTREAM LES. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUIDE A BAND OR TWO INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY IF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LAKE CONNECTION MAY ALREADY
BE IN PLAY IN SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE/OAKLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF THAT IS THE CASE, SOME PERSISTENCE AND A LATE MORNING
BOOST IN INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
HEALTHY LES BAND OF THE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN VARIETY EXTENDING INTO THE
CWA WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE, THE BULK OF WHICH
WILL DEPART WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E LAPSE RATES
WHICH ARE ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF THE SO-CALLED "DELTA-T" METHOD
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, RADAR TRENDS
WILL WARRANT MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STOUT GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PUT A FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. THE RAW NAM/ARW ARE
USUALLY SUPERIOR IN THESE CASES AND BOTH ARE RATHER WARM, BUT FRESH
SNOWCOVER GIVES REASON FOR PAUSE. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES REPRESENT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM/COLD GUIDANCE.

RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL STAGNATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN TODAY AS BACKING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS FOR
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN IF NOT BETTER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOTHERLODE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. FELT A BLANKED LOW CHC POP WAS WARRANTED GIVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND RAMPING UP OF BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL DIRECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN
BAY DUE EAST. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RAPIDLY FOLLOW
SUIT AND THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR FRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEREFORE RESIDE
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0 FRIDAY NIGHT IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10. THE PEAK WIND PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
APPEARING TO CARRY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PART
OR ALL OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE AN INTRODUCTORY MENTION IN THE HWO.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND MID LAKE IN THIS WIND
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BRUSH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 101202
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
702 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SUPPORTING EASTWARD EXTENSION OF SNOW
BANDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORY UNTIL SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE
UPPER WAVE EXITS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. A RELATIVE BREAK IN
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
BEGINS AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AGAIN. CONTINUED NW WIND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE SOUTH OF FNT WHERE POCKETS OF
IFR RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
BETTER OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE BEFORE ADDING RESTRICTION TO THE
FORECAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
DISSIPATING TREND BEGINS. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF A
DECREASING CLOUD TREND AS WELL THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

FOR DTW... WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUST MOSTLY AT 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND STAY UNDER CROSS WIND THRESHOLD. THE WIND WILL SUPPORT
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETTLING SOUTHWARD TOWARD DTW THROUGH MID
MORNING. WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL THEN BECOME MORE
PREVAILING VFR UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN. COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATER IN THE DTW
AREA BUT COULD ALSO SLIDE JUST SOUTH. PLAN TO LET OBSERVATIONS GUIDE
UPDATES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT TODAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING WESTERLY CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DISCUSSION...

THE GREAT LAKES ARE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
WINTER STORM PERSISTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C AT PRESENT
WILL PROBABLY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS UNTIL MONDAY CONSIDERING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND SPECIAL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25C TO -29C AND HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH LATE MORNING, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHERN LOWER
OVER TOP OF EXISTING LES ACTIVITY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY APPROACHING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING AN AREAWIDE HALF INCH
AT BEST AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE DEPTHS BY AN APPRECIABLE MARGIN TO
AROUND 7KFT. IN ADDITION, OVERLAKE 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO A MODERATE -4 TO -6C/KM. TOGETHER, THESE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A BOOST IN UPSTREAM LES. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUIDE A BAND OR TWO INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY IF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LAKE CONNECTION MAY ALREADY
BE IN PLAY IN SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE/OAKLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF THAT IS THE CASE, SOME PERSISTENCE AND A LATE MORNING
BOOST IN INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
HEALTHY LES BAND OF THE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN VARIETY EXTENDING INTO THE
CWA WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE, THE BULK OF WHICH
WILL DEPART WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E LAPSE RATES
WHICH ARE ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF THE SO-CALLED "DELTA-T" METHOD
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, RADAR TRENDS
WILL WARRANT MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STOUT GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PUT A FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. THE RAW NAM/ARW ARE
USUALLY SUPERIOR IN THESE CASES AND BOTH ARE RATHER WARM, BUT FRESH
SNOWCOVER GIVES REASON FOR PAUSE. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES REPRESENT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM/COLD GUIDANCE.

RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL STAGNATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN TODAY AS BACKING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS FOR
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN IF NOT BETTER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOTHERLODE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. FELT A BLANKED LOW CHC POP WAS WARRANTED GIVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND RAMPING UP OF BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL DIRECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN
BAY DUE EAST. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RAPIDLY FOLLOW
SUIT AND THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR FRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEREFORE RESIDE
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0 FRIDAY NIGHT IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10. THE PEAK WIND PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
APPEARING TO CARRY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PART
OR ALL OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE AN INTRODUCTORY MENTION IN THE HWO.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND MID LAKE IN THIS WIND
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BRUSH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 100858
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE GREAT LAKES ARE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
WINTER STORM PERSISTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C AT PRESENT
WILL PROBABLY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS UNTIL MONDAY CONSIDERING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND SPECIAL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25C TO -29C AND HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH LATE MORNING, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHERN LOWER
OVER TOP OF EXISTING LES ACTIVITY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY APPROACHING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING AN AREAWIDE HALF INCH
AT BEST AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE DEPTHS BY AN APPRECIABLE MARGIN TO
AROUND 7KFT. IN ADDITION, OVERLAKE 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO A MODERATE -4 TO -6C/KM. TOGETHER, THESE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A BOOST IN UPSTREAM LES. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUIDE A BAND OR TWO INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY IF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LAKE CONNECTION MAY ALREADY
BE IN PLAY IN SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE/OAKLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF THAT IS THE CASE, SOME PERSISTENCE AND A LATE MORNING
BOOST IN INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
HEALTHY LES BAND OF THE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN VARIETY EXTENDING INTO THE
CWA WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE, THE BULK OF WHICH
WILL DEPART WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E LAPSE RATES
WHICH ARE ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF THE SO-CALLED "DELTA-T" METHOD
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, RADAR TRENDS
WILL WARRANT MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STOUT GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PUT A FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. THE RAW NAM/ARW ARE
USUALLY SUPERIOR IN THESE CASES AND BOTH ARE RATHER WARM, BUT FRESH
SNOWCOVER GIVES REASON FOR PAUSE. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES REPRESENT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM/COLD GUIDANCE.

RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL STAGNATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN TODAY AS BACKING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS FOR
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN IF NOT BETTER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOTHERLODE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. FELT A BLANKED LOW CHC POP WAS WARRANTED GIVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND RAMPING UP OF BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL DIRECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN
BAY DUE EAST. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RAPIDLY FOLLOW
SUIT AND THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR FRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEREFORE RESIDE
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0 FRIDAY NIGHT IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10. THE PEAK WIND PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
APPEARING TO CARRY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PART
OR ALL OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE AN INTRODUCTORY MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND MID LAKE IN THIS WIND
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BRUSH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD.  BRIEF DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /IFR/ REMAINS PLAUSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.
DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AGAIN PERHAPS
FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS STAGE IN PROVIDING A MORE
DEFINITIVE OUTLOOK ON TIMING/LOCATION OF POSSIBLE HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER.  GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 100858
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE GREAT LAKES ARE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
WINTER STORM PERSISTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C AT PRESENT
WILL PROBABLY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS UNTIL MONDAY CONSIDERING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND SPECIAL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25C TO -29C AND HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH LATE MORNING, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHERN LOWER
OVER TOP OF EXISTING LES ACTIVITY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY APPROACHING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING AN AREAWIDE HALF INCH
AT BEST AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE DEPTHS BY AN APPRECIABLE MARGIN TO
AROUND 7KFT. IN ADDITION, OVERLAKE 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO A MODERATE -4 TO -6C/KM. TOGETHER, THESE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A BOOST IN UPSTREAM LES. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUIDE A BAND OR TWO INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY IF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LAKE CONNECTION MAY ALREADY
BE IN PLAY IN SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE/OAKLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF THAT IS THE CASE, SOME PERSISTENCE AND A LATE MORNING
BOOST IN INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
HEALTHY LES BAND OF THE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN VARIETY EXTENDING INTO THE
CWA WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE, THE BULK OF WHICH
WILL DEPART WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E LAPSE RATES
WHICH ARE ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF THE SO-CALLED "DELTA-T" METHOD
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, RADAR TRENDS
WILL WARRANT MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STOUT GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PUT A FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. THE RAW NAM/ARW ARE
USUALLY SUPERIOR IN THESE CASES AND BOTH ARE RATHER WARM, BUT FRESH
SNOWCOVER GIVES REASON FOR PAUSE. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES REPRESENT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM/COLD GUIDANCE.

RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL STAGNATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN TODAY AS BACKING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS FOR
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN IF NOT BETTER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOTHERLODE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. FELT A BLANKED LOW CHC POP WAS WARRANTED GIVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND RAMPING UP OF BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL DIRECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN
BAY DUE EAST. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RAPIDLY FOLLOW
SUIT AND THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR FRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEREFORE RESIDE
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0 FRIDAY NIGHT IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10. THE PEAK WIND PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
APPEARING TO CARRY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PART
OR ALL OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE AN INTRODUCTORY MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND MID LAKE IN THIS WIND
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BRUSH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD.  BRIEF DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /IFR/ REMAINS PLAUSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.
DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AGAIN PERHAPS
FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS STAGE IN PROVIDING A MORE
DEFINITIVE OUTLOOK ON TIMING/LOCATION OF POSSIBLE HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER.  GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 100858
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE GREAT LAKES ARE ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S
WINTER STORM PERSISTS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C AT PRESENT
WILL PROBABLY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS UNTIL MONDAY CONSIDERING THE
BAFFIN ISLAND SPECIAL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -25C TO -29C AND HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THROUGH LATE MORNING, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
THE BAND OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO TO NORTHERN LOWER
OVER TOP OF EXISTING LES ACTIVITY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY APPROACHING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS EASILY
IDENTIFIABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECTING AN AREAWIDE HALF INCH
AT BEST AS IT TRANSITS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE DEPTHS BY AN APPRECIABLE MARGIN TO
AROUND 7KFT. IN ADDITION, OVERLAKE 0-1KM THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL
FALL TO A MODERATE -4 TO -6C/KM. TOGETHER, THESE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A BOOST IN UPSTREAM LES. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL THEN
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUIDE A BAND OR TWO INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAY IF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OF HIGH RES SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE
BELIEVED. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A LAKE CONNECTION MAY ALREADY
BE IN PLAY IN SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE/OAKLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF THAT IS THE CASE, SOME PERSISTENCE AND A LATE MORNING
BOOST IN INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
HEALTHY LES BAND OF THE SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN VARIETY EXTENDING INTO THE
CWA WILL BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE, THE BULK OF WHICH
WILL DEPART WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT, THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E LAPSE RATES
WHICH ARE ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF THE SO-CALLED "DELTA-T" METHOD
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS, RADAR TRENDS
WILL WARRANT MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STOUT GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PUT A FLOOR ON LOW TEMP POTENTIAL. THE RAW NAM/ARW ARE
USUALLY SUPERIOR IN THESE CASES AND BOTH ARE RATHER WARM, BUT FRESH
SNOWCOVER GIVES REASON FOR PAUSE. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES REPRESENT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM/COLD GUIDANCE.

RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL STAGNATE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A TOUCH COLDER THAN TODAY AS BACKING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS FOR
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUN IF NOT BETTER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MODEST MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MOTHERLODE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND. FELT A BLANKED LOW CHC POP WAS WARRANTED GIVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND RAMPING UP OF BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL SWING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, BUT
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL DIRECT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIAN
BAY DUE EAST. AS A RESULT, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RAPIDLY FOLLOW
SUIT AND THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR FRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEREFORE RESIDE
OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0 FRIDAY NIGHT IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 5 TO 10. THE PEAK WIND PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS
APPEARING TO CARRY AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PART
OR ALL OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE AN INTRODUCTORY MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG NW
WIND OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO THE RESULTING HIGH WAVE ACTION AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS. FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARNING FOR HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT WHEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND COLD AIR OCCURS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WILL HAVE GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND MID LAKE IN THIS WIND
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALL OF THESE HARSH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EASE GRADUALLY DURING
THURSDAY AS THE WIND BACKS AND DECREASES BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BRUSH LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD.  BRIEF DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /IFR/ REMAINS PLAUSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.
DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AGAIN PERHAPS
FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS STAGE IN PROVIDING A MORE
DEFINITIVE OUTLOOK ON TIMING/LOCATION OF POSSIBLE HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER.  GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LHZ363-462-463.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LHZ362.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 100453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016


.AVIATION...

ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD.  BRIEF DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /IFR/ REMAINS PLAUSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.
DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AGAIN PERHAPS
FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS STAGE IN PROVIDING A MORE
DEFINITIVE OUTLOOK ON TIMING/LOCATION OF POSSIBLE HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER.  GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 841 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE LONG DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
FROM THE THUMB DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE SAGINAW/FLINT
CORRIDOR...FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE SLOW GENERAL DOWNTURN IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
PROMPTED BY THE GRADUAL EASTWARD RELEASE OF THE RESIDUAL TROWAL
LIKE STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE FEED OFF LAKE HURON...AS THE
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
PERPETUATION OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...BUT OF CONSIDERABLY LOWER
IMPACT NOW AS FREQUENCY/DURATION OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE
TO LESSEN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NOW AT A HALF INCH OR LESS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. WITH THAT IN MIND...PLAN TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE NOW
SHIFTING FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO LAKE MICHIGAN EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ELONGATED HEIGHT FALLS OF AN INBOUND SHORTWAVE. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AUGMENTED BY THE INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL SLIP INTO SE MICHIGAN 10Z-13Z. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
/DCVA/ POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME...WILL AWAIT THE RESPONSE AS THIS PLUME EXITS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CALLING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW TENTHS/DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS LOCATION THROUGH 9 PM. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND DOWN TO
OAKLAND COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SNOW THIS EVENING TO
DETERMINE IF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR IF THEY CAN
BE EXPIRED EARLY. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SNOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AND THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND THE LOW
STARTS TO TRACK EASTWARD AROUND 9 PM. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS WITH AREAS IN THE
THUMB REGION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 20S.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE THE
COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST...850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
VICINITY OF -25C. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS
THROUGH SE MI ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW WITH COLD ADVECTION ENSUING.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL
FINALLY RELEASE EASTWARD...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WAVES HEIGHTS BUILDING ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF THE THUMB. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THESE WINDS AND WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW
BANDS WILL ENCOURAGE SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUS A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...RK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 100453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016


.AVIATION...

ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD.  BRIEF DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /IFR/ REMAINS PLAUSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.
DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AGAIN PERHAPS
FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS STAGE IN PROVIDING A MORE
DEFINITIVE OUTLOOK ON TIMING/LOCATION OF POSSIBLE HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER.  GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 841 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE LONG DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
FROM THE THUMB DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE SAGINAW/FLINT
CORRIDOR...FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE SLOW GENERAL DOWNTURN IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
PROMPTED BY THE GRADUAL EASTWARD RELEASE OF THE RESIDUAL TROWAL
LIKE STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE FEED OFF LAKE HURON...AS THE
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
PERPETUATION OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...BUT OF CONSIDERABLY LOWER
IMPACT NOW AS FREQUENCY/DURATION OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE
TO LESSEN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NOW AT A HALF INCH OR LESS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. WITH THAT IN MIND...PLAN TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE NOW
SHIFTING FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO LAKE MICHIGAN EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ELONGATED HEIGHT FALLS OF AN INBOUND SHORTWAVE. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AUGMENTED BY THE INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL SLIP INTO SE MICHIGAN 10Z-13Z. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
/DCVA/ POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME...WILL AWAIT THE RESPONSE AS THIS PLUME EXITS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CALLING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW TENTHS/DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS LOCATION THROUGH 9 PM. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND DOWN TO
OAKLAND COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SNOW THIS EVENING TO
DETERMINE IF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR IF THEY CAN
BE EXPIRED EARLY. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SNOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AND THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND THE LOW
STARTS TO TRACK EASTWARD AROUND 9 PM. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS WITH AREAS IN THE
THUMB REGION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 20S.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE THE
COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST...850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
VICINITY OF -25C. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS
THROUGH SE MI ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW WITH COLD ADVECTION ENSUING.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL
FINALLY RELEASE EASTWARD...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WAVES HEIGHTS BUILDING ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF THE THUMB. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THESE WINDS AND WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW
BANDS WILL ENCOURAGE SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUS A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...RK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 100453
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016


.AVIATION...

ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD.  BRIEF DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY /IFR/ REMAINS PLAUSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT A HALF INCH OR LESS.
DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AGAIN PERHAPS
FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS STAGE IN PROVIDING A MORE
DEFINITIVE OUTLOOK ON TIMING/LOCATION OF POSSIBLE HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

FOR DTW...MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER.  GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 841 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE LONG DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
FROM THE THUMB DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE SAGINAW/FLINT
CORRIDOR...FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE SLOW GENERAL DOWNTURN IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
PROMPTED BY THE GRADUAL EASTWARD RELEASE OF THE RESIDUAL TROWAL
LIKE STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE FEED OFF LAKE HURON...AS THE
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
PERPETUATION OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...BUT OF CONSIDERABLY LOWER
IMPACT NOW AS FREQUENCY/DURATION OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE
TO LESSEN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NOW AT A HALF INCH OR LESS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. WITH THAT IN MIND...PLAN TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE NOW
SHIFTING FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO LAKE MICHIGAN EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ELONGATED HEIGHT FALLS OF AN INBOUND SHORTWAVE. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AUGMENTED BY THE INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL SLIP INTO SE MICHIGAN 10Z-13Z. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
/DCVA/ POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME...WILL AWAIT THE RESPONSE AS THIS PLUME EXITS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CALLING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW TENTHS/DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS LOCATION THROUGH 9 PM. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND DOWN TO
OAKLAND COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SNOW THIS EVENING TO
DETERMINE IF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR IF THEY CAN
BE EXPIRED EARLY. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SNOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AND THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND THE LOW
STARTS TO TRACK EASTWARD AROUND 9 PM. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS WITH AREAS IN THE
THUMB REGION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 20S.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE THE
COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST...850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
VICINITY OF -25C. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS
THROUGH SE MI ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW WITH COLD ADVECTION ENSUING.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL
FINALLY RELEASE EASTWARD...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WAVES HEIGHTS BUILDING ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF THE THUMB. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THESE WINDS AND WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW
BANDS WILL ENCOURAGE SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUS A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...RK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 100141
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
841 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE LONG DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
FROM THE THUMB DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE SAGINAW/FLINT
CORRIDOR...FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THE SLOW GENERAL DOWNTURN IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
PROMPTED BY THE GRADUAL EASTWARD RELEASE OF THE RESIDUAL TROWAL
LIKE STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE FEED OFF LAKE HURON...AS THE
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
PERPETUATION OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...BUT OF CONSIDERABLY LOWER
IMPACT NOW AS FREQUENCY/DURATION OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE
TO LESSEN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION NOW AT A HALF INCH OR LESS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. WITH THAT IN MIND...PLAN TO ALLOW ALL
HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE NOW
SHIFTING FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO LAKE MICHIGAN EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ELONGATED HEIGHT FALLS OF AN INBOUND SHORTWAVE. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME AUGMENTED BY THE INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL SLIP INTO SE MICHIGAN 10Z-13Z. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
/DCVA/ POINTS TOWARD SEEING AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME...WILL AWAIT THE RESPONSE AS THIS PLUME EXITS
LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CALLING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW TENTHS/DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 600 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS ANCHORED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SLOWING
THIS PROCESS SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER PROJECTIONS...LEAVING WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL HOURS /00Z-04Z/. SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY-MID MORNING PERIOD AS COLDER AIR
FUNNELS IN...BUT LIKELY OF MORE LIMITED CONSEQUENCE GIVEN THE
SHORT DURATION AND LOWER INTENSITY. DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC
FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...DTW AIRSPACE STILL POSITIONED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS OF IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BEFORE THIS MOISTURE LIFTS TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS LOCATION THROUGH 9 PM. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND DOWN TO
OAKLAND COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SNOW THIS EVENING TO
DETERMINE IF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR IF THEY CAN
BE EXPIRED EARLY. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SNOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AND THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND THE LOW
STARTS TO TRACK EASTWARD AROUND 9 PM. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS WITH AREAS IN THE
THUMB REGION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 20S.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE THE
COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST...850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
VICINITY OF -25C. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS
THROUGH SE MI ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW WITH COLD ADVECTION ENSUING.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL
FINALLY RELEASE EASTWARD...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WAVES HEIGHTS BUILDING ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF THE THUMB. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THESE WINDS AND WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW
BANDS WILL ENCOURAGE SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUS A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...RK/DT
MARINE.......DRK

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 092300
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
600 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS ANCHORED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SLOWING
THIS PROCESS SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER PROJECTIONS...LEAVING WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL HOURS /00Z-04Z/. SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY-MID MORNING PERIOD AS COLDER AIR
FUNNELS IN...BUT LIKELY OF MORE LIMITED CONSEQUENCE GIVEN THE
SHORT DURATION AND LOWER INTENSITY. DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC
FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...DTW AIRSPACE STILL POSITIONED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS OF IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BEFORE THIS MOISTURE LIFTS TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS LOCATION THROUGH 9 PM. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND DOWN TO
OAKLAND COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SNOW THIS EVENING TO
DETERMINE IF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR IF THEY CAN
BE EXPIRED EARLY. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SNOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AND THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND THE LOW
STARTS TO TRACK EASTWARD AROUND 9 PM. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS WITH AREAS IN THE
THUMB REGION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 20S.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE THE
COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST...850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
VICINITY OF -25C. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS
THROUGH SE MI ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW WITH COLD ADVECTION ENSUING.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL
FINALLY RELEASE EASTWARD...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WAVES HEIGHTS BUILDING ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF THE THUMB. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THESE WINDS AND WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW
BANDS WILL ENCOURAGE SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUS A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047-048-
     053-060>062-068>070.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...RK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 092300
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
600 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS ANCHORED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SLOWING
THIS PROCESS SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER PROJECTIONS...LEAVING WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL HOURS /00Z-04Z/. SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY-MID MORNING PERIOD AS COLDER AIR
FUNNELS IN...BUT LIKELY OF MORE LIMITED CONSEQUENCE GIVEN THE
SHORT DURATION AND LOWER INTENSITY. DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC
FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...DTW AIRSPACE STILL POSITIONED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS OF IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BEFORE THIS MOISTURE LIFTS TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS LOCATION THROUGH 9 PM. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND DOWN TO
OAKLAND COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SNOW THIS EVENING TO
DETERMINE IF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR IF THEY CAN
BE EXPIRED EARLY. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SNOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AND THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND THE LOW
STARTS TO TRACK EASTWARD AROUND 9 PM. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS WITH AREAS IN THE
THUMB REGION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 20S.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE THE
COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST...850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
VICINITY OF -25C. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS
THROUGH SE MI ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW WITH COLD ADVECTION ENSUING.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL
FINALLY RELEASE EASTWARD...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WAVES HEIGHTS BUILDING ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF THE THUMB. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THESE WINDS AND WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW
BANDS WILL ENCOURAGE SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUS A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047-048-
     053-060>062-068>070.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...RK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 092300
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
600 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS ANCHORED ACROSS SE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST SLOWING
THIS PROCESS SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER PROJECTIONS...LEAVING WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL HOURS /00Z-04Z/. SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY-MID MORNING PERIOD AS COLDER AIR
FUNNELS IN...BUT LIKELY OF MORE LIMITED CONSEQUENCE GIVEN THE
SHORT DURATION AND LOWER INTENSITY. DIURNAL BOOST TO COVERAGE BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS FAVORING A WINDOW FOR PERIODIC
FLUCTUATIONS DOWN TO IFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...DTW AIRSPACE STILL POSITIONED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS OF IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BEFORE THIS MOISTURE LIFTS TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS LOCATION THROUGH 9 PM. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND DOWN TO
OAKLAND COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SNOW THIS EVENING TO
DETERMINE IF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR IF THEY CAN
BE EXPIRED EARLY. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SNOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AND THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND THE LOW
STARTS TO TRACK EASTWARD AROUND 9 PM. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS WITH AREAS IN THE
THUMB REGION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 20S.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE THE
COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST...850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
VICINITY OF -25C. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS
THROUGH SE MI ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW WITH COLD ADVECTION ENSUING.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL
FINALLY RELEASE EASTWARD...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WAVES HEIGHTS BUILDING ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF THE THUMB. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THESE WINDS AND WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW
BANDS WILL ENCOURAGE SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUS A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047-048-
     053-060>062-068>070.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...RK/DT
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 092044
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE THUMB REGION...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS LOCATION THROUGH 9 PM. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND DOWN TO
OAKLAND COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SNOW THIS EVENING TO
DETERMINE IF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR IF THEY CAN
BE EXPIRED EARLY. AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SNOW DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AND THEREFORE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND THE LOW
STARTS TO TRACK EASTWARD AROUND 9 PM. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND KICK UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS WITH AREAS IN THE
THUMB REGION DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 20S.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC CLOSED LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE THE
COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST...850 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE
VICINITY OF -25C. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS LIKELY TO PASS
THROUGH SE MI ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW TURNS TO THE NNW WITH COLD ADVECTION ENSUING.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...AND LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
HURON SHORELINE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL
FINALLY RELEASE EASTWARD...REACHING LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WAVES HEIGHTS BUILDING ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF THE THUMB. A LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THESE WINDS AND WAVES. IN ADDITION...THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW
BANDS WILL ENCOURAGE SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING SPRAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THUS A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1252 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND A VERY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED TO PRODUCE A LARGE SWATH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY BAND HAS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL THUMB BUT A SECONDARY BAND
HAS ALIGNED FROM MBS...TO FNT...TO PTK. THIS BAND WILL RESULT IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME DROPS TO LIFR WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE DETROIT AREA TAFS WILL PRIMARILY BE LOW MVFR BUT
COULD DIP TO HIGH IFR AT TIMES AS IT HOVER AROUND 3SM IN LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS. DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER WISCONSIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW... THE TERMINAL LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WHICH MEANS IT COULD SEE SOME RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW DIPS TO IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A FEW MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW EXIST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD AND
DIURNAL SHOWERS INITIATE TOMORROW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047-048-
     053-060>062-068>070.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RK/DT
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 091752
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016


.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND A VERY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
HAS COMBINED TO PRODUCE A LARGE SWATH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY BAND HAS STALLED OVER THE CENTRAL THUMB BUT A SECONDARY BAND
HAS ALIGNED FROM MBS...TO FNT...TO PTK. THIS BAND WILL RESULT IN IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME DROPS TO LIFR WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE DETROIT AREA TAFS WILL PRIMARILY BE LOW MVFR BUT
COULD DIP TO HIGH IFR AT TIMES AS IT HOVER AROUND 3SM IN LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS. DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER WISCONSIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW... THE TERMINAL LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WHICH MEANS IT COULD SEE SOME RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR ALTHOUGH A FEW DIPS TO IFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A FEW MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW EXIST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD AND
DIURNAL SHOWERS INITIATE TOMORROW.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* HIGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE.

* LOW FOR EXCEEDING NORTHWEST CROSSWIND THRESHOLD TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1101 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...

VERY PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS PARKED ALONG A SEBEWAING TO
PORT HURON LINE /PER KDTX AND EXETER RADARS/. SNOW TOTALS AROUND
7 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN
TUSCOLA...WESTERN SANILAC...AND NORTHERN ST CLAIR COUNTIES.
EXPECT THIS BAND WILL MAINTAIN STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS...AS IT APPEARS TO BE LOCKED IN WITH THE SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS APPROACHING 10 INCHES. REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...

INTEGRITY OF SPIRAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN REMAINS RATHER HIGH. THESE BANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE
OVERACHIEVING NATURE OF THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE PROSPECTS
CONMTINUE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF M-59...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE DETROIT METRO REGION.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE EXPANDED
AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE INITIALLY ADVISORY AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 314 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DISCUSSION...

A 999MB SURFACE LOW NEAR EXETER, ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN BY ANOTHER MB OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS EMBEDDED
ENERGY PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. ONGOING ADVISORY EVENT IS
PANNING OUT IN REASONABLE FASHION AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
EXISTING HEADLINE.

0730Z RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS BAND IS BEING
FORCED BY THE LEAD EDGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
TOGETHER FOR THE MOST PART AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH, REACHING
THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY 6AM AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-
MORNING. THIS BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL REPRESENT THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT
SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY OVER THE NE CWA.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE AN INLAND ADJUSTMENT OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN HURON, TUSCOLA, AND SANILAC COUNTIES. RADAR
RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR ARE INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION FIELD. BROAD ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW FROM ONTARIO TO LAKE HURON. HOWEVER,
IT APPEARS TO BE THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROWAL. FAR FROM A CLASSIC
TROWAL, MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEFORMATION, AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS REGION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL IR
AND WV. THE SNOW BAND THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
WEAK FGEN ALONG THE TROWAL`S BACK EDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY ONLY SHOW A SLOW CYCLONIC PIVOT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND IT
IS WITHIN THIS AXIS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY, DISTANCE FROM THE RADAR, LACK OF REPORTS, AND A VOID
IN SURFACE OBS IS SEVERELY LIMITING DIAGNOSIS OF ACTUAL SNOW
INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z NAM HANDLED THE RELEVANT FEATURES WELL,
ITS QPF OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL. THAT HAS CHANGED WITH THE 06Z
NAM, WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE IN SPATIAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AND
CORRELATION WITH RELEVANT FEATURES. IT WILL REPRESENT THE PRIMARY
QPF GUIDANCE THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP THIS AFTERNOON, THE TROWAL, OR WHAT
REMAINS OF IT AFTER THE CIRCULATION OPENS, WILL RAPIDLY PIVOT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF 8 MILE. TRAILING THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE LAKE ENHANCED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON AT THE MOMENT. THIS
FEATURE WILL COME CRASHING ONSHORE WITH PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY
FALLING IN THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. THE INTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR
OVER THE LAKE 12-18Z WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE ROBUST, THOUGH STILL
MODEST, OVERLAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HAVE A CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED TROUGH BEFORE IT PIVOTS ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS WILL THEREFORE BE WORTH MONITORING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOW WILL BE ON THE TABLE
FOR HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. PROGRESSIVE FLOW THEN TAKES OVER
AS THE OPEN WAVE EXITS RESULTING IN A RAPID DIMINISHING OF SNOW
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 00Z.

THE STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -2C AT PRESENT TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE BULK OF THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUING IN WEAK FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO 20 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, AS THE DGZ WILL BE SUPERSATURATED WRT ICE BEFORE LINGERING
MOISTURE EXITS LATE. NW FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PURE LES POTENTIAL,
ALTHOUGH THE FETCH WILL FAVOR MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERIOR-
MICHIGAN BAND STRETCHING INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS AND
A STRONG GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP LOWS EASILY ABOVE MODELED VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS...RAISED LOWS WED NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TEENS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THE EXIT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR PEEKS OF SUN BY AFTERNOON.

EDGEWAVE RACING EAST ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
SUBZERO LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
AROUND -15 WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME. UNLIKE LAST FEBRUARY,
THIS INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LONG
GONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON DURING THE MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND INCREASING
NORTH WIND AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. A WIND HEADLINE
IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THE INCREASED WIND AND LONG NORTHERLY FETCH
WILL BUILD WAVE ACTION WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY. THE NORTH WIND WILL ALSO BRING
A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME THAT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW SQUALLS AND SUPPORT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FREEZING
SPRAY POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE ARCTIC AIR MAINTAINS A HOLD ON THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047-048-
     053-060>062-068>070.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     063.

LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......MANN
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





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