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000
FXUS63 KDTX 290703
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
303 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STRONG
POLAR LOW DIGGING INTO WESTERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE
SAGINAW VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ELEVATED
WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ENTIRE CWA WILL EFFECTIVELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY 12Z-14Z. HOWEVER, SLOWLY RETREATING EAST COAST
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE DETROIT
AREA NORTH TOWARD PORT HURON. WINDS WILL NOT VEER ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE LAKE SHADOW EFFECTS ACROSS THE EAST, SO, WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE, LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THE METRO AREA . INSTEAD, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE MAXIMUM TO
RESIDE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE
MINIMIZED.

YESTERDAY`S UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS CONFIRM MODEL PROGS WHICH INDICATE
TDS RISING INTO THE MID 60S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT CU
COVERAGE, SUPPORTIVE OF MLCAPE RISING TO 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WEAKLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISM WILL RENDER UPDRAFT INITIATION CONDITIONAL ON POCKETS OF
PREFERENTIAL HEATING AND BROAD/WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION.
NOTHING BETTER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE AREA. FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND LOCALES WEST OF U.S. 23,
GREATER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING WILL INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE AS WELL AS STORM POTENTIAL TO
CAPITALIZE ON DRY MID-LEVELS & WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ENTIRELY DEPENDENT DIABATIC COOLING.

LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO EXPIRE
BY SUNSET, BUT NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL EVENTUALLY REPLENISH WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF A LOW COVERAGE OF WEAKLY SHEARED MULTICELL
TYPE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF A DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
ELIMINATES ANY NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL
MUCH BELOW 70 IN SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC
ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. A
TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS ERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS LOWER MI TIED TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.8 IN/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SE MI ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO PERHAPS
MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF SE MI. SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ARE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION /TIMING OF WHICH IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
STAGE IN THE FCST/. THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES/S/ SUGGEST A REGION OF CONVECTION ON SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT
WHICH ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SAT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPE GREATER
THAN 1K J/KG/ AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS OF COURSE WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF ANY UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION SUGGESTS A RISK FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION BECOMES HIGHLY SUSPECT AS IT IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THUS DEVELOPS A QUASI STATIONARY
MCS OVER SRN MI. THE PROGRESSION OF THE CANADIAN UPPER WAVE SHOULD
RESULT IN A FASTER FRONTAL PUSH THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO SE MI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N AND NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUSTAIN THIS COOL AND DRY AIR
AMIDST E-NE FLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL THEN REBOUND DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO
A MODEST WARMING TREND.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
DRIVEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING LAKE
ERIE SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE
WINDS TO THE N-NW. AN INCREASING GRADIENT ALONG WITH A PUSH OF MUCH
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1153 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL CONSTITUTE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT COVERAGE AND DENSITY WILL BE
LIMITED AS SOUTH WIND STRUGGLES TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER BASED CU/AC CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT MBS
AND FNT BY MID EVENING.

FOR DTW... THE WIND STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WILL BRING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINAL FROM LAKE
ERIE. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO MVFR FOG RESTRICTION BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON IFR IN THE FORECAST AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
INCREASING WIND SPEED AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT IFR RESTRICTION
THROUGH MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT 5000 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND FRIDAY
  TONIGHT.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 290353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL CONSTITUTE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT COVERAGE AND DENSITY WILL BE
LIMITED AS SOUTH WIND STRUGGLES TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER BASED CU/AC CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT MBS
AND FNT BY MID EVENING.

FOR DTW... THE WIND STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WILL BRING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINAL FROM LAKE
ERIE. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO MVFR FOG RESTRICTION BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON IFR IN THE FORECAST AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
INCREASING WIND SPEED AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT IFR RESTRICTION
THROUGH MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT 5000 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND FRIDAY
  TONIGHT.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 290353
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS WILL CONSTITUTE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT COVERAGE AND DENSITY WILL BE
LIMITED AS SOUTH WIND STRUGGLES TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER BASED CU/AC CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE AT MBS
AND FNT BY MID EVENING.

FOR DTW... THE WIND STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WILL BRING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINAL FROM LAKE
ERIE. THIS ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO MVFR FOG RESTRICTION BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON IFR IN THE FORECAST AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
INCREASING WIND SPEED AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT IFR RESTRICTION
THROUGH MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT 5000 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND FRIDAY
  TONIGHT.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 282318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
718 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MBS AREA WILL LEAVE VFR CLEAR AVIATION
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER BASED CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 282318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
718 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MBS AREA WILL LEAVE VFR CLEAR AVIATION
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER BASED CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 282318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
718 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MBS AREA WILL LEAVE VFR CLEAR AVIATION
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER BASED CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD SUNRISE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL MAINLY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 282011 CCA
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 282011 CCA
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 281935
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN TO POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 281935
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

A CONSIDERABLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TUCKED BENEATH A
GENERAL INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS LARGELY SUSTAINING A STABLE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIMITED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES...WITH THIS CORRIDOR WITHIN THE
FRINGE OF SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AND ACCOMPANYING AGITATED
CU FIELD NOW EMERGING OFF THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THERE DOES
REMAIN TO POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED CELLS TO EMERGE UPSTREAM
ALONG THIS FEATURE PRIOR TO SUNSET.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO PERHAPS DRIFT INTO THE
TRI-CITIES BEFORE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY DETERIORATES
WITH SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL EVENING/NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  A DRYING NEAR SURFACE CONDITION WILL KEEP
ANY FOG FORMATION LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND VERY SHALLOW.  LOWS
TONIGHT SETTLING WITHIN A RANGE FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL ALLOW A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH BEST
DEFINITION/HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. GFS/NAM SUGGESTING
THE BULK OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MORE IN A
WEAK 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION/WARM FRONT WORTHY OF CHANCE POPS.
THE CAPE VALUE IS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...AS THE 12Z NAM SURFACE DEW
PTS CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES APPEARS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...WITH
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF ST LOUIS AND OVER KENTUCKY INDICATING DEW PTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TOMORROW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 15 C. WITH THE GENERALLY
LOW CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

DEEP/COLD (-34 C AT 500 MB) UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO ONTARIO
DURING SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL PV/ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY  (850 MB DEW PTS PROGGED TO RISE TO 13
C...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES)...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING DURING SATURDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET (130+ KNOTS AT 250 MB) LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLY DAY ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING...SBCAPES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG (GFS)...BUT
NAM SUGGESTS MORE LIKE 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS 0-6 KM
WILL BE FORMIDABLE...WELL INTO THE 40S (KNOTS). 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SO WE CAN
ABSORB A HEFTY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EXTREME
MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS.

THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD PROLONG HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT 12Z EURO SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WHILE CANADIAN RIDES A WEAKER
LOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND CALM THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS SYSTEM
AS IT IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/ IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...STARTING OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW
60S...AND WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR TREND
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES...STARTING OFF IN THE MID
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL BRING IN MOIST AND WARMER AIR
TO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
LOOK TO GUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE WAVE BUILD UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON...WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 281736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 281736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
136 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

LIMITED AMOUNT OF VFR DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL EASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES.  PROSPECTS FOR A PERIOD
OF SHALLOW MVFR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
LOSS OF MOISTURE QUALITY NEAR THE SURFACE.  THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING
SE MICHIGAN POST-DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU/CUMULUS TO EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF SE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD /FRIDAY EVENING/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 281127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.AVIATION...

THIN LAYER OF FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT FLUCTUATED QUITE
A BIT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKE
OVER THE REGION. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR MBS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 281127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.AVIATION...

THIN LAYER OF FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT FLUCTUATED QUITE
A BIT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKE
OVER THE REGION. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR MBS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 281127
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.AVIATION...

THIN LAYER OF FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT FLUCTUATED QUITE
A BIT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TAKE
OVER THE REGION. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM COULD DEVELOP NEAR MBS BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 280825
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WAY EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
CLEARING TREND AND LIGHT WIND WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT/SHALLOW FOG AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY PTK SOUTHWARD WHERE
THE GROUND IS WET FROM RAIN. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY WINNING OUT FOR NO
WORSE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING A
LIGHT S-SE WIND OVER THE REGION UNDER SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 280825
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF LOWER
MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR DEEP SWERLY FLOW TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH 80 DEGREES TODAY. MIXING DEPTHS WILL APPROACH 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LAYER MAY ONLY REACH 15-
20 KNOTS WHICH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON GUSTS MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL SUN AND WARMTH THOUGH AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD TRY TO INITIATE OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER IN ADDITION TO FORECAST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN AN AGITATED CU FIELD AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED HEIGHTS WILL HAVE A BETTER HOLD
AS ONE HEADS SOUTH BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND SFC
TROUGH...SOME ACTIVITY COULD LEAK SOUTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
REGION. THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY THUS JUST WENT WITH 20 POPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE EASTWARD DRIFTING SFC RIDGE. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL ALLOW
A DECENT BIT OF COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING SFC MOISTURE ELEVATED...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE AIRMASS TO BE TOO DRY TO DEVELOP MUCH IF ANY FOG. ANYTHING THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SHALLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...

STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY INTO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS HAS BEEN CALLING FOR A DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING TO GENERATE THE STOUT LOW TO
MIDLEVEL DYNAMICS. THAT IS...THE IDAHO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
WORK UNDER THEN BE KICKED AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON FRIDAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE PERFECT FOR WEAK
JET ENERGY ATTENDANT TO THE PLAINS CIRCULATION TO CREATE A PSEUDO
JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHEARED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD WILL THEN AID A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IN
ORGANIZING A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
THEN BE DRIVEN RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE AREA OF 1000-500MB
HEIGHT RISES.

FRIDAY...HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS THE BIG QUESTION. LATEST
MODEL DATA...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
COVERAGE OF QPF FOR THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY HERE WITH THE LACK OF CAPPING. WITH THE LOW
TO MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TRAJECTORIES...AND COMPLETE LACK OF
JET ENERGY ALOFT OVERHEAD STILL DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE FROM CHANCE
POPS FOR FRIDAY. TOTAL LACK OF WIND IN THE COLUMN SUPPORTS A PULSE
TYPE STORM BEHAVIOR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN A MARGINAL DESIGNATION.

THE DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 28.00Z SUITE WAS TO DISSIPATE THE FIRST
AXIS OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING THE DOMINANT 850-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T FEEL THIS IS A
HUGE DEAL...BUT IT DOES POSSIBLY SIGNIFY THAT MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DIALED IN ON SOME LARGE SCALE GOVERNING DYNAMICS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DEPICT A VERY GOOD FRONTAL SUPPORT WITH UPRIGHT
ASCENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOW FOR SATURDAY WITH A TOTAL VOID OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RATHER...MOISTURE PROFILES AND FORECAST PWATS SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY BRINGING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF WINDSPEEDS
RANGING 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WAY EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
CLEARING TREND AND LIGHT WIND WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT/SHALLOW FOG AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY PTK SOUTHWARD WHERE
THE GROUND IS WET FROM RAIN. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY WINNING OUT FOR NO
WORSE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING A
LIGHT S-SE WIND OVER THE REGION UNDER SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 280357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WAY EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
CLEARING TREND AND LIGHT WIND WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT/SHALLOW FOG AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY PTK SOUTHWARD WHERE
THE GROUND IS WET FROM RAIN. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY WINNING OUT FOR NO
WORSE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING A
LIGHT S-SE WIND OVER THE REGION UNDER SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1055 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE...

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS JUST
ABOUT EXHAUSTED BY THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED ABOUT 1300 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TRANSLATING INTO
0-1 KM MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS HELPED SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE THUMB EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE. NOW BOTH THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING AN END TO ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

PLAN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH SECTIONS WHERE
IT RAINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION POST
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP ANY FOG ON THE SHALLOW SIDE THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 280357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WAY EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
CLEARING TREND AND LIGHT WIND WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT/SHALLOW FOG AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY PTK SOUTHWARD WHERE
THE GROUND IS WET FROM RAIN. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY WINNING OUT FOR NO
WORSE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING A
LIGHT S-SE WIND OVER THE REGION UNDER SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1055 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE...

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS JUST
ABOUT EXHAUSTED BY THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED ABOUT 1300 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TRANSLATING INTO
0-1 KM MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS HELPED SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE THUMB EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE. NOW BOTH THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING AN END TO ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

PLAN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH SECTIONS WHERE
IT RAINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION POST
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP ANY FOG ON THE SHALLOW SIDE THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 280357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WAY EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
CLEARING TREND AND LIGHT WIND WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT/SHALLOW FOG AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY PTK SOUTHWARD WHERE
THE GROUND IS WET FROM RAIN. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY WINNING OUT FOR NO
WORSE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING A
LIGHT S-SE WIND OVER THE REGION UNDER SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1055 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE...

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS JUST
ABOUT EXHAUSTED BY THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED ABOUT 1300 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TRANSLATING INTO
0-1 KM MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS HELPED SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE THUMB EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE. NOW BOTH THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING AN END TO ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

PLAN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH SECTIONS WHERE
IT RAINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION POST
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP ANY FOG ON THE SHALLOW SIDE THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 280357
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THE WAY EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
CLEARING TREND AND LIGHT WIND WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT/SHALLOW FOG AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY PTK SOUTHWARD WHERE
THE GROUND IS WET FROM RAIN. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WITHIN THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY WINNING OUT FOR NO
WORSE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTION THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING A
LIGHT S-SE WIND OVER THE REGION UNDER SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1055 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE...

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS JUST
ABOUT EXHAUSTED BY THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED ABOUT 1300 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TRANSLATING INTO
0-1 KM MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS HELPED SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE THUMB EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE. NOW BOTH THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING AN END TO ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

PLAN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH SECTIONS WHERE
IT RAINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION POST
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP ANY FOG ON THE SHALLOW SIDE THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 280255
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1055 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS JUST
ABOUT EXHAUSTED BY THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED ABOUT 1300 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TRANSLATING INTO
0-1 KM MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS HELPED SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE THUMB EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE. NOW BOTH THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING AN END TO ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

PLAN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH SECTIONS WHERE
IT RAINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION POST
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP ANY FOG ON THE SHALLOW SIDE THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 705 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AND A DECREASING WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHALLOW MVFR RESTRICTION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ALSO WITH WET GROUND CONTRIBUTIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR DTW... THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 280255
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1055 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS JUST
ABOUT EXHAUSTED BY THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED ABOUT 1300 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TRANSLATING INTO
0-1 KM MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS HELPED SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE THUMB EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE. NOW BOTH THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING AN END TO ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

PLAN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH SECTIONS WHERE
IT RAINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION POST
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP ANY FOG ON THE SHALLOW SIDE THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 705 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AND A DECREASING WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHALLOW MVFR RESTRICTION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ALSO WITH WET GROUND CONTRIBUTIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR DTW... THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 280255
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1055 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS JUST
ABOUT EXHAUSTED BY THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED ABOUT 1300 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TRANSLATING INTO
0-1 KM MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS HELPED SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE THUMB EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE. NOW BOTH THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING AN END TO ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

PLAN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH SECTIONS WHERE
IT RAINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION POST
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP ANY FOG ON THE SHALLOW SIDE THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 705 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AND A DECREASING WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHALLOW MVFR RESTRICTION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ALSO WITH WET GROUND CONTRIBUTIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR DTW... THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 280255
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1055 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TRAILING THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS JUST
ABOUT EXHAUSTED BY THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATED ABOUT 1300 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TRANSLATING INTO
0-1 KM MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THIS HELPED SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE THUMB EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER WAVE. NOW BOTH THE WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING AN END TO ALL RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

PLAN TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTH SECTIONS WHERE
IT RAINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION POST
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP ANY FOG ON THE SHALLOW SIDE THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 705 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AND A DECREASING WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHALLOW MVFR RESTRICTION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ALSO WITH WET GROUND CONTRIBUTIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR DTW... THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 272305
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AND A DECREASING WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHALLOW MVFR RESTRICTION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ALSO WITH WET GROUND CONTRIBUTIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR DTW... THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 272305
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AND A DECREASING WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHALLOW MVFR RESTRICTION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ALSO WITH WET GROUND CONTRIBUTIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR DTW... THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 272305
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AND A DECREASING WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHALLOW MVFR RESTRICTION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ALSO WITH WET GROUND CONTRIBUTIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR DTW... THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 272305
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AND A DECREASING WESTERLY WIND OVER
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION OVERNIGHT MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE. SHALLOW MVFR RESTRICTION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ALSO WITH WET GROUND CONTRIBUTIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR DTW... THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 01-02Z AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT OVER
THE TERMINAL AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT DURING THE EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 00Z TO 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271936
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 139 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AT LEAST FROM FNT SOUTH...AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA AND PUSHES STORMS EAST.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FROM PTK SOUTH. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS...HOWEVER HAIL
TO 1 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE TURNING WEST AND
DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME VERY
LIGHT. THIS MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z.

FOR DTW...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL BEFORE 22Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE TURNING WEST AND DECREASING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH PROBABILITY FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO EARLY EVENING.

* MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
  TERMINAL FROM 18Z TO 22Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271936
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND...STILL STRETCHED
FROM ABOUT MT PLEASANT DOWN TOWARDS KALAMAZOO AT 300 PM. OUT AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS WITH 18Z KDTX RAOB
CONFIRMING EARLIER MODEL ESTIMATES WITH SB CAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG.
THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ALIGNED ALONG A BOUNDARY SEEN ON KDTX
RADAR IMAGERY THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY. STORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL...WITH
INSTABILITY STARTING TO DECREASE AS STORMS WORK THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA...BOTH HAPPENING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT EAST. EXPECTING TO
SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE SET IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROMOTE SOME PATCH FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED FROM EARLIER
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL THEREFORE BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HOWELL. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH FORECAST MINS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO PART OF FRIDAY...BUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LEAVE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
CHURNS ACROSS CANADA AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS RICHER THETA-E AIR FUNNELS BACK INTO THE
AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGHING HELPS TO FOCUS THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEST MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ALSO AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH
A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...CULMINATING IN A
DECENT ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS UP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
CONUS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COOLER
GREAT LAKES WATERS HOLDING IN THE 70S THURSDAY. WITH THE COLD FROPA
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR THEN
BRING 60S FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION BACK
INTO THE 70S OCCURS BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SAGINAW
BAY THROUGH THE TIP OF THE THUMB AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT FUNNELS UP THE BAY AND CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...MOST MARINE AREAS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOT FLOW. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION FROM
LAKE ST CLAIR SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 139 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AT LEAST FROM FNT SOUTH...AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA AND PUSHES STORMS EAST.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FROM PTK SOUTH. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS...HOWEVER HAIL
TO 1 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE TURNING WEST AND
DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME VERY
LIGHT. THIS MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z.

FOR DTW...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL BEFORE 22Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE TURNING WEST AND DECREASING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH PROBABILITY FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO EARLY EVENING.

* MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
  TERMINAL FROM 18Z TO 22Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 271739
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
139 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015


.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AT LEAST FROM FNT SOUTH...AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA AND PUSHES STORMS EAST.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FROM PTK SOUTH. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS...HOWEVER HAIL
TO 1 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE TURNING WEST AND
DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME VERY
LIGHT. THIS MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z.

FOR DTW...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL BEFORE 22Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE TURNING WEST AND DECREASING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH PROBABILITY FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO EARLY EVENING.

* MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
  TERMINAL FROM 18Z TO 22Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1134 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST NAM SOUNDING
MODIFICATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON (T/TD OF 81/62 AT DTW) YIELDS
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STORMS OR SMALL LINES OF STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SFC BASED FORCING TO A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

WITH THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AT THE START OF THE DAY...DEEP
LAYER SWERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RULE OVER THE REGION KEEPING
MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERALL THE
MOISTURE PROFILE TOOK A HIT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVE LIFTED THROUGH THE
STATE TAKING THE >1.5 INCH PWATS ALONG WITH IT...BUT STILL LEAVING
VALUES OVER AN INCH TO WORK WITH. LL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DECENT ONCE
AGAIN BUT WE STILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY NOTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE CAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 20-30 KNOTS WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WHICH WILL NOT HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. THE NAM/HRRR/GEMREG
ALL SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO IGNITE A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 20-21Z ACROSS FAR SE MI BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
AROUND 22-00Z PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT IN THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BOTH WEAK AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH COULD WORK THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
INSTABILITY CAN MAXIMIZE AND IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER FOR THE
COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS...THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO NOTE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO ADRIAN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FRONT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SPC AND THEIR NEW DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS WE
MIX UP TO 850MB WITH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE
DECK. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE
IF THE POSSIBLE LINES OF CONVECTION DO NOT DISTURB THE FLOW TOO
MUCH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS EASTWARD AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S VS THE 60S WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH OF LATE. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A ZONAL WESTERN FLOW VS A COOL NWERLY POST FRONTAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.

LONG TERM...

RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
ADDITION TO BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS A SIGNATURE FOR RELATIVELY
STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. ALL OF THE CWA BEGINS THE
THURSDAY PERIOD WITH NO WX MENTION. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR LAKE ERIE
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN INTO THE SAGINAW BAY/NO
THUMB VICINITIES TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. IS IS THE HIGHER THETA E
CONTENT WASHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THAT ALLOWS THE NAM TO
GENERATE SOME QPF FOR PORTIONS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF
THE THUMB. SEEMS TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME KICKING IN...LEADING TO A FALSE REPRESENTATION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP FOR THE AREAS
OUTLINED...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ALONG LAKE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WARM ADVECTION...INSOLATION...DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT 1000-500MB HEIGHT
RISE FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS THIS FAR
REACHING CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...THEN DRIVE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STILL UNEASY ON WHEN TO BEGIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH
EARLY QPF ONSET...BUT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE 300 MB HEIGHTS AND
SOME DISTANCE YET TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SUGGESTS A LACK OF
FORCING COULD YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAPPING...HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. WITH THAT
STATED...THERE IS A STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT OVERALL FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL BE HIGH WHICH BRINGS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS INCLUDING LIKELY POPS.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...INCREMENTALLY BUMPED FRIDAY HIGHS
UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S...SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FORECASTED FOR TODAY...WILL ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FUNNELING OF WINDS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271739
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
139 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015


.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AT LEAST FROM FNT SOUTH...AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA AND PUSHES STORMS EAST.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FROM PTK SOUTH. THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS...HOWEVER HAIL
TO 1 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE TURNING WEST AND
DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME VERY
LIGHT. THIS MAY PROMOTE LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z.

FOR DTW...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL BEFORE 22Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE TURNING WEST AND DECREASING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH PROBABILITY FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO EARLY EVENING.

* MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
  TERMINAL FROM 18Z TO 22Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1134 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST NAM SOUNDING
MODIFICATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON (T/TD OF 81/62 AT DTW) YIELDS
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STORMS OR SMALL LINES OF STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SFC BASED FORCING TO A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

WITH THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AT THE START OF THE DAY...DEEP
LAYER SWERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RULE OVER THE REGION KEEPING
MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERALL THE
MOISTURE PROFILE TOOK A HIT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVE LIFTED THROUGH THE
STATE TAKING THE >1.5 INCH PWATS ALONG WITH IT...BUT STILL LEAVING
VALUES OVER AN INCH TO WORK WITH. LL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DECENT ONCE
AGAIN BUT WE STILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY NOTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE CAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 20-30 KNOTS WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WHICH WILL NOT HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. THE NAM/HRRR/GEMREG
ALL SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO IGNITE A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 20-21Z ACROSS FAR SE MI BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
AROUND 22-00Z PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT IN THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BOTH WEAK AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH COULD WORK THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
INSTABILITY CAN MAXIMIZE AND IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER FOR THE
COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS...THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO NOTE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO ADRIAN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FRONT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SPC AND THEIR NEW DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS WE
MIX UP TO 850MB WITH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE
DECK. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE
IF THE POSSIBLE LINES OF CONVECTION DO NOT DISTURB THE FLOW TOO
MUCH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS EASTWARD AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S VS THE 60S WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH OF LATE. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A ZONAL WESTERN FLOW VS A COOL NWERLY POST FRONTAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.

LONG TERM...

RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
ADDITION TO BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS A SIGNATURE FOR RELATIVELY
STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. ALL OF THE CWA BEGINS THE
THURSDAY PERIOD WITH NO WX MENTION. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR LAKE ERIE
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN INTO THE SAGINAW BAY/NO
THUMB VICINITIES TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. IS IS THE HIGHER THETA E
CONTENT WASHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THAT ALLOWS THE NAM TO
GENERATE SOME QPF FOR PORTIONS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF
THE THUMB. SEEMS TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME KICKING IN...LEADING TO A FALSE REPRESENTATION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP FOR THE AREAS
OUTLINED...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ALONG LAKE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WARM ADVECTION...INSOLATION...DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT 1000-500MB HEIGHT
RISE FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS THIS FAR
REACHING CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...THEN DRIVE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STILL UNEASY ON WHEN TO BEGIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH
EARLY QPF ONSET...BUT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE 300 MB HEIGHTS AND
SOME DISTANCE YET TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SUGGESTS A LACK OF
FORCING COULD YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAPPING...HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. WITH THAT
STATED...THERE IS A STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT OVERALL FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL BE HIGH WHICH BRINGS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS INCLUDING LIKELY POPS.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...INCREMENTALLY BUMPED FRIDAY HIGHS
UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S...SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FORECASTED FOR TODAY...WILL ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FUNNELING OF WINDS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 271534
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1134 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST NAM SOUNDING
MODIFICATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON (T/TD OF 81/62 AT DTW) YIELDS
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STORMS OR SMALL LINES OF STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.


&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 735 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF AS WELL. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER FROM PTK
SOUTHWARD WITH HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SHOWERS FOR MBS/FNT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR STORMS. BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 18-23Z.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 00Z...SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND
WINDS WILL GO CALM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...A COUPLE LINES OF STORMS LOOK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DETROIT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BEST TIMING WINDOW
FROM 20-23Z BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 18-20Z.
SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES AT 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EVENING.

* MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SFC BASED FORCING TO A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

WITH THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AT THE START OF THE DAY...DEEP
LAYER SWERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RULE OVER THE REGION KEEPING
MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERALL THE
MOISTURE PROFILE TOOK A HIT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVE LIFTED THROUGH THE
STATE TAKING THE >1.5 INCH PWATS ALONG WITH IT...BUT STILL LEAVING
VALUES OVER AN INCH TO WORK WITH. LL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DECENT ONCE
AGAIN BUT WE STILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY NOTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE CAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 20-30 KNOTS WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WHICH WILL NOT HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. THE NAM/HRRR/GEMREG
ALL SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO IGNITE A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 20-21Z ACROSS FAR SE MI BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
AROUND 22-00Z PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT IN THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BOTH WEAK AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH COULD WORK THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
INSTABILITY CAN MAXIMIZE AND IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER FOR THE
COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS...THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO NOTE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO ADRIAN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FRONT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SPC AND THEIR NEW DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS WE
MIX UP TO 850MB WITH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE
DECK. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE
IF THE POSSIBLE LINES OF CONVECTION DO NOT DISTURB THE FLOW TOO
MUCH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS EASTWARD AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S VS THE 60S WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH OF LATE. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A ZONAL WESTERN FLOW VS A COOL NWERLY POST FRONTAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.

LONG TERM...

RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
ADDITION TO BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS A SIGNATURE FOR RELATIVELY
STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. ALL OF THE CWA BEGINS THE
THURSDAY PERIOD WITH NO WX MENTION. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR LAKE ERIE
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN INTO THE SAGINAW BAY/NO
THUMB VICINITIES TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. IS IS THE HIGHER THETA E
CONTENT WASHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THAT ALLOWS THE NAM TO
GENERATE SOME QPF FOR PORTIONS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF
THE THUMB. SEEMS TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME KICKING IN...LEADING TO A FALSE REPRESENTATION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP FOR THE AREAS
OUTLINED...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ALONG LAKE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WARM ADVECTION...INSOLATION...DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT 1000-500MB HEIGHT
RISE FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS THIS FAR
REACHING CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...THEN DRIVE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STILL UNEASY ON WHEN TO BEGIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH
EARLY QPF ONSET...BUT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE 300 MB HEIGHTS AND
SOME DISTANCE YET TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SUGGESTS A LACK OF
FORCING COULD YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAPPING...HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. WITH THAT
STATED...THERE IS A STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT OVERALL FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL BE HIGH WHICH BRINGS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS INCLUDING LIKELY POPS.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...INCREMENTALLY BUMPED FRIDAY HIGHS
UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S...SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FORECASTED FOR TODAY...WILL ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FUNNELING OF WINDS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 271534
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1134 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST NAM SOUNDING
MODIFICATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON (T/TD OF 81/62 AT DTW) YIELDS
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STORMS OR SMALL LINES OF STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.


&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 735 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF AS WELL. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER FROM PTK
SOUTHWARD WITH HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SHOWERS FOR MBS/FNT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR STORMS. BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 18-23Z.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 00Z...SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND
WINDS WILL GO CALM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...A COUPLE LINES OF STORMS LOOK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DETROIT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BEST TIMING WINDOW
FROM 20-23Z BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 18-20Z.
SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES AT 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EVENING.

* MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SFC BASED FORCING TO A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

WITH THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AT THE START OF THE DAY...DEEP
LAYER SWERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RULE OVER THE REGION KEEPING
MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERALL THE
MOISTURE PROFILE TOOK A HIT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVE LIFTED THROUGH THE
STATE TAKING THE >1.5 INCH PWATS ALONG WITH IT...BUT STILL LEAVING
VALUES OVER AN INCH TO WORK WITH. LL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DECENT ONCE
AGAIN BUT WE STILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY NOTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE CAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 20-30 KNOTS WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WHICH WILL NOT HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. THE NAM/HRRR/GEMREG
ALL SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO IGNITE A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 20-21Z ACROSS FAR SE MI BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
AROUND 22-00Z PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT IN THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BOTH WEAK AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH COULD WORK THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
INSTABILITY CAN MAXIMIZE AND IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER FOR THE
COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS...THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO NOTE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO ADRIAN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FRONT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SPC AND THEIR NEW DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS WE
MIX UP TO 850MB WITH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE
DECK. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE
IF THE POSSIBLE LINES OF CONVECTION DO NOT DISTURB THE FLOW TOO
MUCH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS EASTWARD AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S VS THE 60S WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH OF LATE. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A ZONAL WESTERN FLOW VS A COOL NWERLY POST FRONTAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.

LONG TERM...

RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
ADDITION TO BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS A SIGNATURE FOR RELATIVELY
STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. ALL OF THE CWA BEGINS THE
THURSDAY PERIOD WITH NO WX MENTION. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR LAKE ERIE
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN INTO THE SAGINAW BAY/NO
THUMB VICINITIES TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. IS IS THE HIGHER THETA E
CONTENT WASHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THAT ALLOWS THE NAM TO
GENERATE SOME QPF FOR PORTIONS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF
THE THUMB. SEEMS TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME KICKING IN...LEADING TO A FALSE REPRESENTATION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP FOR THE AREAS
OUTLINED...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ALONG LAKE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WARM ADVECTION...INSOLATION...DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT 1000-500MB HEIGHT
RISE FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS THIS FAR
REACHING CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...THEN DRIVE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STILL UNEASY ON WHEN TO BEGIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH
EARLY QPF ONSET...BUT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE 300 MB HEIGHTS AND
SOME DISTANCE YET TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SUGGESTS A LACK OF
FORCING COULD YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAPPING...HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. WITH THAT
STATED...THERE IS A STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT OVERALL FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL BE HIGH WHICH BRINGS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS INCLUDING LIKELY POPS.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...INCREMENTALLY BUMPED FRIDAY HIGHS
UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S...SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FORECASTED FOR TODAY...WILL ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FUNNELING OF WINDS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 271135
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
735 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015


.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LINE OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF AS WELL. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER FROM PTK
SOUTHWARD WITH HIGHER CHANCE OF JUST SHOWERS FOR MBS/FNT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR STORMS. BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 18-23Z.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 00Z...SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AND
WINDS WILL GO CALM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW...A COUPLE LINES OF STORMS LOOK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DETROIT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BEST TIMING WINDOW
FROM 20-23Z BUT A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN 18-20Z.
SW WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES AT 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EVENING.

* MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SFC BASED FORCING TO A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

WITH THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AT THE START OF THE DAY...DEEP
LAYER SWERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RULE OVER THE REGION KEEPING
MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERALL THE
MOISTURE PROFILE TOOK A HIT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVE LIFTED THROUGH THE
STATE TAKING THE >1.5 INCH PWATS ALONG WITH IT...BUT STILL LEAVING
VALUES OVER AN INCH TO WORK WITH. LL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DECENT ONCE
AGAIN BUT WE STILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY NOTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE CAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 20-30 KNOTS WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WHICH WILL NOT HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. THE NAM/HRRR/GEMREG
ALL SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO IGNITE A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 20-21Z ACROSS FAR SE MI BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
AROUND 22-00Z PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT IN THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BOTH WEAK AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH COULD WORK THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
INSTABILITY CAN MAXIMIZE AND IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER FOR THE
COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS...THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO NOTE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO ADRIAN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FRONT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SPC AND THEIR NEW DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS WE
MIX UP TO 850MB WITH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE
DECK. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE
IF THE POSSIBLE LINES OF CONVECTION DO NOT DISTURB THE FLOW TOO
MUCH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS EASTWARD AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S VS THE 60S WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH OF LATE. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A ZONAL WESTERN FLOW VS A COOL NWERLY POST FRONTAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.

LONG TERM...

RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
ADDITION TO BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS A SIGNATURE FOR RELATIVELY
STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. ALL OF THE CWA BEGINS THE
THURSDAY PERIOD WITH NO WX MENTION. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR LAKE ERIE
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN INTO THE SAGINAW BAY/NO
THUMB VICINITIES TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. IS IS THE HIGHER THETA E
CONTENT WASHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THAT ALLOWS THE NAM TO
GENERATE SOME QPF FOR PORTIONS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF
THE THUMB. SEEMS TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME KICKING IN...LEADING TO A FALSE REPRESENTATION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP FOR THE AREAS
OUTLINED...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ALONG LAKE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WARM ADVECTION...INSOLATION...DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT 1000-500MB HEIGHT
RISE FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS THIS FAR
REACHING CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...THEN DRIVE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STILL UNEASY ON WHEN TO BEGIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH
EARLY QPF ONSET...BUT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE 300 MB HEIGHTS AND
SOME DISTANCE YET TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SUGGESTS A LACK OF
FORCING COULD YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAPPING...HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. WITH THAT
STATED...THERE IS A STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT OVERALL FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL BE HIGH WHICH BRINGS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS INCLUDING LIKELY POPS.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...INCREMENTALLY BUMPED FRIDAY HIGHS
UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S...SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FORECASTED FOR TODAY...WILL ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FUNNELING OF WINDS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270748
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SFC BASED FORCING TO A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

WITH THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AT THE START OF THE DAY...DEEP
LAYER SWERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RULE OVER THE REGION KEEPING
MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERALL THE
MOISTURE PROFILE TOOK A HIT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVE LIFTED THROUGH THE
STATE TAKING THE >1.5 INCH PWATS ALONG WITH IT...BUT STILL LEAVING
VALUES OVER AN INCH TO WORK WITH. LL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DECENT ONCE
AGAIN BUT WE STILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY NOTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE CAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 20-30 KNOTS WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WHICH WILL NOT HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. THE NAM/HRRR/GEMREG
ALL SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO IGNITE A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 20-21Z ACROSS FAR SE MI BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
AROUND 22-00Z PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT IN THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BOTH WEAK AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH COULD WORK THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
INSTABILITY CAN MAXIMIZE AND IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER FOR THE
COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS...THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO NOTE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO ADRIAN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FRONT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SPC AND THEIR NEW DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS WE
MIX UP TO 850MB WITH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE
DECK. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE
IF THE POSSIBLE LINES OF CONVECTION DO NOT DISTURB THE FLOW TOO
MUCH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS EASTWARD AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S VS THE 60S WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH OF LATE. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A ZONAL WESTERN FLOW VS A COOL NWERLY POST FRONTAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM...

RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
ADDITION TO BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS A SIGNATURE FOR RELATIVELY
STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. ALL OF THE CWA BEGINS THE
THURSDAY PERIOD WITH NO WX MENTION. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR LAKE ERIE
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN INTO THE SAGINAW BAY/NO
THUMB VICINITIES TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. IS IS THE HIGHER THETA E
CONTENT WASHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THAT ALLOWS THE NAM TO
GENERATE SOME QPF FOR PORTIONS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF
THE THUMB. SEEMS TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME KICKING IN...LEADING TO A FALSE REPRESENTATION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP FOR THE AREAS
OUTLINED...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ALONG LAKE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WARM ADVECTION...INSOLATION...DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT 1000-500MB HEIGHT
RISE FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS THIS FAR
REACHING CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...THEN DRIVE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STILL UNEASY ON WHEN TO BEGIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH
EARLY QPF ONSET...BUT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE 300 MB HEIGHTS AND
SOME DISTANCE YET TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SUGGESTS A LACK OF
FORCING COULD YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAPPING...HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. WITH THAT
STATED...THERE IS A STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT OVERALL FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL BE HIGH WHICH BRINGS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS INCLUDING LIKELY POPS.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...INCREMENTALLY BUMPED FRIDAY HIGHS
UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S...SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FORECASTED FOR TODAY...WILL ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FUNNELING OF WINDS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE AT ANY ONE TERMINAL LOCATION.
INTENSITY WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. THAT LEAVES A MIX OF MVFR CEILING AND FOG AS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING
TREND...THE LATEST DATA POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILING TO
OCCUR AT MBS DOWN TO FNT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR PERSISTS
DURING THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AT PTK THROUGH
DTW AND ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIMITED TO MVFR BY WIND
STAYING ABOVE 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT ENOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A PROB GROUP DURING PEAK HEATING BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR DTW... OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER...WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED TO MVFR FOG AND PATCHY MVFR CEILING DURING THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR A PROB GROUP DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT YET FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT AFTERNOON INTO
  EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AFTERNOON
  INTO EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 270748
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SFC BASED FORCING TO A
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

WITH THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AT THE START OF THE DAY...DEEP
LAYER SWERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN RULE OVER THE REGION KEEPING
MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERALL THE
MOISTURE PROFILE TOOK A HIT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVE LIFTED THROUGH THE
STATE TAKING THE >1.5 INCH PWATS ALONG WITH IT...BUT STILL LEAVING
VALUES OVER AN INCH TO WORK WITH. LL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DECENT ONCE
AGAIN BUT WE STILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANY NOTABLE IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE CAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 20-30 KNOTS WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WHICH WILL NOT HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. THE NAM/HRRR/GEMREG
ALL SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO IGNITE A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 20-21Z ACROSS FAR SE MI BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
AROUND 22-00Z PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT IN THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BOTH WEAK AND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH COULD WORK THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE
INSTABILITY CAN MAXIMIZE AND IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER FOR THE
COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS...THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO NOTE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO ADRIAN DUE TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FRONT...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH SPC AND THEIR NEW DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS WE
MIX UP TO 850MB WITH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS JUST OFF THE
DECK. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE
IF THE POSSIBLE LINES OF CONVECTION DO NOT DISTURB THE FLOW TOO
MUCH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS EASTWARD AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S VS THE 60S WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH OF LATE. LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A ZONAL WESTERN FLOW VS A COOL NWERLY POST FRONTAL
FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM...

RISING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELED ABSOLUTE VORTICITY FIELDS IN
ADDITION TO BUFR SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTS A SIGNATURE FOR RELATIVELY
STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. ALL OF THE CWA BEGINS THE
THURSDAY PERIOD WITH NO WX MENTION. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR LAKE ERIE
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DOWN INTO THE SAGINAW BAY/NO
THUMB VICINITIES TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. IS IS THE HIGHER THETA E
CONTENT WASHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THAT ALLOWS THE NAM TO
GENERATE SOME QPF FOR PORTIONS OF NE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF
THE THUMB. SEEMS TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF THE NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME KICKING IN...LEADING TO A FALSE REPRESENTATION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP FOR THE AREAS
OUTLINED...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS ALONG LAKE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WARM ADVECTION...INSOLATION...DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT 1000-500MB HEIGHT
RISE FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT IS THIS FAR
REACHING CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN...THEN DRIVE
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STILL UNEASY ON WHEN TO BEGIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH
EARLY QPF ONSET...BUT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE 300 MB HEIGHTS AND
SOME DISTANCE YET TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SUGGESTS A LACK OF
FORCING COULD YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAPPING...HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING. WITH THAT
STATED...THERE IS A STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT OVERALL FRONTAL
DYNAMICS WILL BE HIGH WHICH BRINGS A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS INCLUDING LIKELY POPS.
WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...INCREMENTALLY BUMPED FRIDAY HIGHS
UPWARD INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S...SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FORECASTED FOR TODAY...WILL ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FUNNELING OF WINDS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE AT ANY ONE TERMINAL LOCATION.
INTENSITY WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. THAT LEAVES A MIX OF MVFR CEILING AND FOG AS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING
TREND...THE LATEST DATA POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILING TO
OCCUR AT MBS DOWN TO FNT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR PERSISTS
DURING THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AT PTK THROUGH
DTW AND ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIMITED TO MVFR BY WIND
STAYING ABOVE 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT ENOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A PROB GROUP DURING PEAK HEATING BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR DTW... OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER...WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED TO MVFR FOG AND PATCHY MVFR CEILING DURING THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR A PROB GROUP DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT YET FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT AFTERNOON INTO
  EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AFTERNOON
  INTO EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 270405
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE AT ANY ONE TERMINAL LOCATION.
INTENSITY WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. THAT LEAVES A MIX OF MVFR CEILING AND FOG AS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING
TREND...THE LATEST DATA POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILING TO
OCCUR AT MBS DOWN TO FNT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR PERSISTS
DURING THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AT PTK THROUGH
DTW AND ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIMITED TO MVFR BY WIND
STAYING ABOVE 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SUPPORT ENOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A PROB GROUP DURING PEAK HEATING BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.

FOR DTW... OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER...WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED TO MVFR FOG AND PATCHY MVFR CEILING DURING THE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR A PROB GROUP DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT YET FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT AFTERNOON INTO
  EVENING.

* LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL AFTERNOON
  INTO EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATE...

POCKETS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT SUPPORT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUNSET. HOURLY
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS LAPSE RATES AT SUB 6 C/KM LEVELS AND MUCAPE
SUB 500 J/KG. FORCING FOR SHOWERS IS MAINLY TIED TO THE UPPER LOW
BEING ABLE TO WRING OUT THE LAST BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG
THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. EVENING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL UPPER AIR FIELDS ALSO SHOW A SMALLER
SCALE WAVE ABLE TO FOCUS SOME BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH AND OUT OF SE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED IN SEVERE POTENTIAL 5PM-10PM THIS EVENING,
FOR WHICH A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS FORTHCOMING FOR ALL OF SE
MICHIGAN. POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING TOWARD
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING SECONDARY TO AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE CONTENT. AN
ADDITIONAL FEW UPDRAFTS ARE POPPING UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE H7 GRADIENT.

AS NOTED IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE, PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES WITHIN
THE APPROACHING MOISTURE PLUME AROUND 20-21Z. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE 1,000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
POCKETS OF 1500 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AMBIENT WIND FIELD IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 KTS INT HE
COLUMN, BUT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING, WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY
FURTHER NORTH. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOTED ON 18Z DTX SOUNDING
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
DYNAMIC BOWS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE CLOSER
TO PEAK HEATING. GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE.
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF SLY QUADRANT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING COLD
FROPA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NOTABLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONCE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20 MPH.

THE WEATHER QUIETS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE A COLD FRONT DOES
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80F ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
JUST BE LESS HUMID THAN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL...HOWEVER...LEAD TO COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG. SO...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS JAMES BAY AS A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AROUND MEAN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED AROUND HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM
DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH 80S PREVALENT. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL THEN
ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED AROUND 60 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO QUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WARM/HUMID AIR OF LATE IS FORCED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH FUNNELING OF SOUTHWEST FLOW UP
SAGINAW BAY MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM...MOIST FLOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS OVER LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH
OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 270237
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

POCKETS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT SUPPORT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUNSET. HOURLY
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS LAPSE RATES AT SUB 6 C/KM LEVELS AND MUCAPE
SUB 500 J/KG. FORCING FOR SHOWERS IS MAINLY TIED TO THE UPPER LOW
BEING ABLE TO WRING OUT THE LAST BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG
THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. EVENING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL UPPER AIR FIELDS ALSO SHOW A SMALLER
SCALE WAVE ABLE TO FOCUS SOME BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH AND OUT OF SE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 658 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VOLATILE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR DURING MID EVENING. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TRAIL THE MAIN LINE AND LAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR FOG AND CEILING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING TREND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LATEST DATA POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILING TO OCCUR AT MBS
DOWN TO FNT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR PERSISTS DURING THE
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AT PTK THROUGH DTW AND ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIMITED BY WIND STAYING ABOVE 5 KNOTS
THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW... THE MAIN PATTERN OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL THEN BE LIMITED TO
PATCHY MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE BUT MORE LIKELY LIGHT FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED IN SEVERE POTENTIAL 5PM-10PM THIS EVENING,
FOR WHICH A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS FORTHCOMING FOR ALL OF SE
MICHIGAN. POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING TOWARD
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING SECONDARY TO AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE CONTENT. AN
ADDITIONAL FEW UPDRAFTS ARE POPPING UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE H7 GRADIENT.

AS NOTED IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE, PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES WITHIN
THE APPROACHING MOISTURE PLUME AROUND 20-21Z. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE 1,000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
POCKETS OF 1500 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AMBIENT WIND FIELD IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 KTS INT HE
COLUMN, BUT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING, WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY
FURTHER NORTH. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOTED ON 18Z DTX SOUNDING
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
DYNAMIC BOWS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE CLOSER
TO PEAK HEATING. GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE.
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF SLY QUADRANT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING COLD
FROPA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NOTABLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONCE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20 MPH.

THE WEATHER QUIETS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE A COLD FRONT DOES
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80F ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
JUST BE LESS HUMID THAN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL...HOWEVER...LEAD TO COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG. SO...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS JAMES BAY AS A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AROUND MEAN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED AROUND HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM
DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH 80S PREVALENT. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL THEN
ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED AROUND 60 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO QUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WARM/HUMID AIR OF LATE IS FORCED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH FUNNELING OF SOUTHWEST FLOW UP
SAGINAW BAY MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM...MOIST FLOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS OVER LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH
OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 270237
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

POCKETS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT SUPPORT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE SUNSET. HOURLY
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS LAPSE RATES AT SUB 6 C/KM LEVELS AND MUCAPE
SUB 500 J/KG. FORCING FOR SHOWERS IS MAINLY TIED TO THE UPPER LOW
BEING ABLE TO WRING OUT THE LAST BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG
THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. EVENING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL UPPER AIR FIELDS ALSO SHOW A SMALLER
SCALE WAVE ABLE TO FOCUS SOME BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH AND OUT OF SE MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 658 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VOLATILE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR DURING MID EVENING. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TRAIL THE MAIN LINE AND LAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR FOG AND CEILING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING TREND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LATEST DATA POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILING TO OCCUR AT MBS
DOWN TO FNT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR PERSISTS DURING THE
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AT PTK THROUGH DTW AND ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIMITED BY WIND STAYING ABOVE 5 KNOTS
THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW... THE MAIN PATTERN OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL THEN BE LIMITED TO
PATCHY MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE BUT MORE LIKELY LIGHT FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED IN SEVERE POTENTIAL 5PM-10PM THIS EVENING,
FOR WHICH A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS FORTHCOMING FOR ALL OF SE
MICHIGAN. POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING TOWARD
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING SECONDARY TO AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE CONTENT. AN
ADDITIONAL FEW UPDRAFTS ARE POPPING UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE H7 GRADIENT.

AS NOTED IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE, PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES WITHIN
THE APPROACHING MOISTURE PLUME AROUND 20-21Z. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE 1,000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
POCKETS OF 1500 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AMBIENT WIND FIELD IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 KTS INT HE
COLUMN, BUT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING, WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY
FURTHER NORTH. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOTED ON 18Z DTX SOUNDING
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
DYNAMIC BOWS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE CLOSER
TO PEAK HEATING. GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE.
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF SLY QUADRANT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING COLD
FROPA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NOTABLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONCE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20 MPH.

THE WEATHER QUIETS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE A COLD FRONT DOES
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80F ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
JUST BE LESS HUMID THAN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL...HOWEVER...LEAD TO COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG. SO...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS JAMES BAY AS A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AROUND MEAN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED AROUND HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM
DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH 80S PREVALENT. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL THEN
ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED AROUND 60 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO QUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WARM/HUMID AIR OF LATE IS FORCED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH FUNNELING OF SOUTHWEST FLOW UP
SAGINAW BAY MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM...MOIST FLOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS OVER LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH
OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 262258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

VOLATILE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR DURING MID EVENING. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TRAIL THE MAIN LINE AND LAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR FOG AND CEILING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING TREND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LATEST DATA POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILING TO OCCUR AT MBS
DOWN TO FNT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR PERSISTS DURING THE
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AT PTK THROUGH DTW AND ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIMITED BY WIND STAYING ABOVE 5 KNOTS
THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW... THE MAIN PATTERN OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL THEN BE LIMITED TO
PATCHY MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE BUT MORE LIKELY LIGHT FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED IN SEVERE POTENTIAL 5PM-10PM THIS EVENING,
FOR WHICH A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS FORTHCOMING FOR ALL OF SE
MICHIGAN. POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING TOWARD
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING SECONDARY TO AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE CONTENT. AN
ADDITIONAL FEW UPDRAFTS ARE POPPING UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE H7 GRADIENT.

AS NOTED IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE, PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES WITHIN
THE APPROACHING MOISTURE PLUME AROUND 20-21Z. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE 1,000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
POCKETS OF 1500 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AMBIENT WIND FIELD IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 KTS INT HE
COLUMN, BUT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING, WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY
FURTHER NORTH. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOTED ON 18Z DTX SOUNDING
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
DYNAMIC BOWS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE CLOSER
TO PEAK HEATING. GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE.
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF SLY QUADRANT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING COLD
FROPA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NOTABLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONCE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20 MPH.

THE WEATHER QUIETS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE A COLD FRONT DOES
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80F ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
JUST BE LESS HUMID THAN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL...HOWEVER...LEAD TO COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG. SO...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS JAMES BAY AS A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AROUND MEAN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED AROUND HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM
DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH 80S PREVALENT. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL THEN
ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED AROUND 60 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO QUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WARM/HUMID AIR OF LATE IS FORCED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH FUNNELING OF SOUTHWEST FLOW UP
SAGINAW BAY MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM...MOIST FLOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS OVER LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH
OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 262258
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

VOLATILE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE TERMINAL
CORRIDOR DURING MID EVENING. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TRAIL THE MAIN LINE AND LAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR FOG AND CEILING WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AFTER A BRIEF CLEARING TREND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LATEST DATA POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILING TO OCCUR AT MBS
DOWN TO FNT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR PERSISTS DURING THE
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF CLOUDS AT PTK THROUGH DTW AND ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE LIMITED BY WIND STAYING ABOVE 5 KNOTS
THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW... THE MAIN PATTERN OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL THEN BE LIMITED TO
PATCHY MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE BUT MORE LIKELY LIGHT FOG AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED IN SEVERE POTENTIAL 5PM-10PM THIS EVENING,
FOR WHICH A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS FORTHCOMING FOR ALL OF SE
MICHIGAN. POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING TOWARD
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING SECONDARY TO AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE CONTENT. AN
ADDITIONAL FEW UPDRAFTS ARE POPPING UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE H7 GRADIENT.

AS NOTED IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE, PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES WITHIN
THE APPROACHING MOISTURE PLUME AROUND 20-21Z. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE 1,000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
POCKETS OF 1500 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AMBIENT WIND FIELD IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 KTS INT HE
COLUMN, BUT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING, WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY
FURTHER NORTH. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOTED ON 18Z DTX SOUNDING
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
DYNAMIC BOWS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE CLOSER
TO PEAK HEATING. GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE.
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF SLY QUADRANT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

LONG TERM...

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING COLD
FROPA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NOTABLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONCE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20 MPH.

THE WEATHER QUIETS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE A COLD FRONT DOES
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80F ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
JUST BE LESS HUMID THAN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL...HOWEVER...LEAD TO COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG. SO...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS JAMES BAY AS A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AROUND MEAN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED AROUND HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM
DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH 80S PREVALENT. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL THEN
ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED AROUND 60 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO QUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WARM/HUMID AIR OF LATE IS FORCED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH FUNNELING OF SOUTHWEST FLOW UP
SAGINAW BAY MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM...MOIST FLOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS OVER LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH
OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 261902
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED IN SEVERE POTENTIAL 5PM-10PM THIS EVENING,
FOR WHICH A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS FORTHCOMING FOR ALL OF SE
MICHIGAN. POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING TOWARD
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING SECONDARY TO AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE CONTENT. AN
ADDITIONAL FEW UPDRAFTS ARE POPPING UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE H7 GRADIENT.

AS NOTED IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE, PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES WITHIN
THE APPROACHING MOISTURE PLUME AROUND 20-21Z. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE 1,000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
POCKETS OF 1500 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AMBIENT WIND FIELD IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 KTS INT HE
COLUMN, BUT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING, WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY
FURTHER NORTH. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOTED ON 18Z DTX SOUNDING
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
DYNAMIC BOWS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE CLOSER
TO PEAK HEATING. GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE.
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF SLY QUADRANT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING COLD
FROPA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NOTABLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONCE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20 MPH.

THE WEATHER QUIETS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE A COLD FRONT DOES
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80F ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
JUST BE LESS HUMID THAN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL...HOWEVER...LEAD TO COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG. SO...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS JAMES BAY AS A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AROUND MEAN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED AROUND HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM
DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH 80S PREVALENT. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL THEN
ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED AROUND 60 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO QUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WARM/HUMID AIR OF LATE IS FORCED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH FUNNELING OF SOUTHWEST FLOW UP
SAGINAW BAY MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM...MOIST FLOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS OVER LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH
OF FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 132 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 18 KNOTS AS
DIURNAL MIXING CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING STRATUS HAS
MIXED INTO A SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF LOW VFR CU. BASES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 4KFT WITH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN WILL WORK
IN AFTER 22Z BRINGING A RETURN TO BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS AND A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MAIN BAND OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL TRANSIT THE AIRFIELDS ROUGHLY 23-01Z BRINGING
AN INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RISK.

SUPPORT FOR BRIEF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF ANY STORMS 02-04Z BEFORE
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR PIVOTS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT 04Z-08Z.

FOR DTW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN BELOW
5KFT...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AS GRAVITY
WAVES CONTINUE TO INTERFERE. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AROUND 22Z AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS IN BUT PEAK TIME
FOR TSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING SEVERE WIND...STILL
APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 23-01Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5KFT THROUGH 22Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE...MAINLY
  AROUND 23-01Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 261902
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASED IN SEVERE POTENTIAL 5PM-10PM THIS EVENING,
FOR WHICH A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS FORTHCOMING FOR ALL OF SE
MICHIGAN. POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING TOWARD
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT MAY IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING SECONDARY TO AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PLUME OF GREATEST MOISTURE CONTENT. AN
ADDITIONAL FEW UPDRAFTS ARE POPPING UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER
ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE H7 GRADIENT.

AS NOTED IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE, PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES WITHIN
THE APPROACHING MOISTURE PLUME AROUND 20-21Z. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO ACHIEVE 1,000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH
POCKETS OF 1500 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AMBIENT WIND FIELD IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 35 TO 40 KTS INT HE
COLUMN, BUT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING, WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY
FURTHER NORTH. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NOTED ON 18Z DTX SOUNDING
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO
DYNAMIC BOWS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE CLOSER
TO PEAK HEATING. GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY
POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE.
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF SLY QUADRANT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY AND FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING COLD
FROPA.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN NOTABLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONCE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY. WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20 MPH.

THE WEATHER QUIETS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EASES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE A COLD FRONT DOES
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80F ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
JUST BE LESS HUMID THAN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL...HOWEVER...LEAD TO COOLER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG. SO...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS JAMES BAY AS A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AROUND MEAN UPPER
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED AROUND HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM
DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH 80S PREVALENT. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL THEN
ENSUE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED AROUND 60 DEGREES
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO QUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WARM/HUMID AIR OF LATE IS FORCED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ANYWHERE...ALTHOUGH FUNNELING OF SOUTHWEST FLOW UP
SAGINAW BAY MAY ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

THE WARM...MOIST FLOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS OVER LAKE HURON INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH
OF FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 132 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 18 KNOTS AS
DIURNAL MIXING CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING STRATUS HAS
MIXED INTO A SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF LOW VFR CU. BASES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 4KFT WITH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN WILL WORK
IN AFTER 22Z BRINGING A RETURN TO BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS AND A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MAIN BAND OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL TRANSIT THE AIRFIELDS ROUGHLY 23-01Z BRINGING
AN INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RISK.

SUPPORT FOR BRIEF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF ANY STORMS 02-04Z BEFORE
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR PIVOTS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT 04Z-08Z.

FOR DTW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN BELOW
5KFT...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AS GRAVITY
WAVES CONTINUE TO INTERFERE. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AROUND 22Z AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS IN BUT PEAK TIME
FOR TSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING SEVERE WIND...STILL
APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 23-01Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5KFT THROUGH 22Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE...MAINLY
  AROUND 23-01Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 261732
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015


.AVIATION...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 18 KNOTS AS
DIURNAL MIXING CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING STRATUS HAS
MIXED INTO A SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF LOW VFR CU. BASES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 4KFT WITH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN WILL WORK
IN AFTER 22Z BRINGING A RETURN TO BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS AND A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MAIN BAND OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL TRANSIT THE AIRFIELDS ROUGHLY 23-01Z BRINGING
AN INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RISK.

SUPPORT FOR BRIEF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF ANY STORMS 02-04Z BEFORE
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR PIVOTS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT 04Z-08Z.

FOR DTW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN BELOW
5KFT...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AS GRAVITY
WAVES CONTINUE TO INTERFERE. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AROUND 22Z AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS IN BUT PEAK TIME
FOR TSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING SEVERE WIND...STILL
APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 23-01Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5KFT THROUGH 22Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE...MAINLY
  AROUND 23-01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1123 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE 5PM
TO 10 PM PERIOD THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
RESIDE ALONG THE WEST FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED H7-H5 MOISTURE PLUME
ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF THE GREATEST, THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY GREAT,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST EAST OF SAINT LOUIS, MISSOURI.

PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEAD
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WORKS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY 19-21Z, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GIVEN INITIALLY POOR THERMODYNAMICS. 12Z NAM INDICATES A MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCEL ACHIEVING UP TO 1,000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z BEFORE
UNREALISTIC CONVECTION CONTAMINATES REMAINING OUTPUT. ITS 4-KM
COUNTERPART AND OTHER CONVECTION-RESOLVING GUIDANCE INDICATE A
COUPLE HOURS YET OF CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND THE EMBEDDED ARC OF CONVECTION WORK
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THIS INFORMATION IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR STRATUS TO BURN OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
INCREASES THE PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TO THE TUNE
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN BE A
TIME-OF-ARRIVAL ISSUE THAT DETERMINES EXACTLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
REMAINS BY LATE EVENING WHEN CONVECTION ARRIVES.

AMBIENT WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, PEAKING AT 35 TO
PERHAPS 40 KTS IN THE COLUMN, BUT VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 35KTS IN
THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING, WHICH MAY
COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH. A DEEP
AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINLY
SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO DYNAMIC BOWS A
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE. NO COMPLAINTS WITH
SPC DAY 1 WHICH HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY DUE TO WIND. GIVEN
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DTX PLANS TO LAUNCH AN 18Z SOUNDING THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE SETUP HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE SLOWLY DRIFTING TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE
WEST/CENTRAL CONUS WHILE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
THIS HAS LEAD TO SE MI BEING LOCATED IN BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINATE
FEATURES WITH PERSISTENT SWERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE SENSE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG
VORT MAX...NOW AN OPEN WAVE...MOVING FROM NE TO MN/WI. THIS MEAN THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A BIT STRONGER FORCING
OVER THE AREA THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE SHORTWAVES THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THIS WAVE TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS WAVE WHICH RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH.

CURRENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING UP INTO SOUTHERN MI.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS FILLING THE SKY AS
THE MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CU FIELD TIL
THE AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BETWEEN ABOUT 22-04Z. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF THETA E WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 305-
310K WILL LIFT NORTHWARD PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST TODAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING. MODELS ARE ALL
IN THE BALLPARK OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH THE NAM COMING IN A FEW
HUNDRED HIGHER WHICH IS TYPICAL. LAPSE RATES HAVE STRUGGLED THE LAST
FEW DAYS BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE UP TO AROUND 750MB TODAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP STORMS GET GOING. A LL JET WILL NOSE UP INTO THE AREA IN
THE EVENING RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. BR
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL SEE A LINE/BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WHILE TRAVELING NE AT 35 MPH. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH LESSER THREATS BEING HAIL AND TORNADOS. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SPC HAS UPGRADED ALL OF LOWER MI
FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
IT APPEARS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRY TO PULL ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF
VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD IN THE MID 60S
AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
REMAINS UNDER ELEVATED HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PATTERN BREAKING
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY...NUMERICAL OUTPUT HAS CONVERGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTER TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE STEMS
FROM MORE EFFICIENT PHASING OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
VORTICITY ANOMALIES...AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIS JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND SOUTHERN TAIL OF VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL DRAG
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPORT TO THE CWA. PERSISTENCE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUGGESTS
SIMILAR CAPE VALUES WED WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1200 J/KG OF
SBCAPE/MLCAPE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TROUGH/THETA E GRADIENT/WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST...WITH QUICKER TIMING NEGATING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IN SLOWER
SOLUTION...RICHEST EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO
RESIDE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED COVERAGE POST
18Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER SCENARIO PRIOR TO 18Z. THE DEEPER WIND
FIELD WILL HAVE STRIPPED OUT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
RANGING 15-25 KNOTS. THE CONDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS MESSAGING OF JUST A
STANDARD THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS
MARGINAL DESIGNATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN...TIED TO
RICHER THETA E CONTENT.

THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRACKING LOCALLY...SEEKING OUT THE
LAKE HURON/ERIE AGGREGATE. GONE DRY THURSDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LOW SKY FRACTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

FRIDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT DAY OR SO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE QUICKER STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE COULD OCCUR
AND SERVE AS BLOCKING FOR THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND FORCING.
FOR NOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS
VERY WELL COULD BE PUSHED BACK WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPS THAN WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S COULD BE IN PLAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 261732
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015


.AVIATION...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 18 KNOTS AS
DIURNAL MIXING CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING STRATUS HAS
MIXED INTO A SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF LOW VFR CU. BASES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 4KFT WITH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN WILL WORK
IN AFTER 22Z BRINGING A RETURN TO BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS AND A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. MAIN BAND OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL TRANSIT THE AIRFIELDS ROUGHLY 23-01Z BRINGING
AN INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM RISK.

SUPPORT FOR BRIEF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF ANY STORMS 02-04Z BEFORE
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED MVFR PIVOTS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT 04Z-08Z.

FOR DTW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN BELOW
5KFT...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AS GRAVITY
WAVES CONTINUE TO INTERFERE. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AROUND 22Z AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS IN BUT PEAK TIME
FOR TSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING SEVERE WIND...STILL
APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 23-01Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5KFT THROUGH 22Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE
  THEREAFTER.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT A TSTORM WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE...MAINLY
  AROUND 23-01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1123 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE 5PM
TO 10 PM PERIOD THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
RESIDE ALONG THE WEST FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED H7-H5 MOISTURE PLUME
ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF THE GREATEST, THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY GREAT,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST EAST OF SAINT LOUIS, MISSOURI.

PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEAD
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WORKS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY 19-21Z, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GIVEN INITIALLY POOR THERMODYNAMICS. 12Z NAM INDICATES A MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCEL ACHIEVING UP TO 1,000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z BEFORE
UNREALISTIC CONVECTION CONTAMINATES REMAINING OUTPUT. ITS 4-KM
COUNTERPART AND OTHER CONVECTION-RESOLVING GUIDANCE INDICATE A
COUPLE HOURS YET OF CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND THE EMBEDDED ARC OF CONVECTION WORK
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THIS INFORMATION IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR STRATUS TO BURN OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
INCREASES THE PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TO THE TUNE
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN BE A
TIME-OF-ARRIVAL ISSUE THAT DETERMINES EXACTLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
REMAINS BY LATE EVENING WHEN CONVECTION ARRIVES.

AMBIENT WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, PEAKING AT 35 TO
PERHAPS 40 KTS IN THE COLUMN, BUT VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 35KTS IN
THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING, WHICH MAY
COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH. A DEEP
AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINLY
SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO DYNAMIC BOWS A
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE. NO COMPLAINTS WITH
SPC DAY 1 WHICH HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY DUE TO WIND. GIVEN
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DTX PLANS TO LAUNCH AN 18Z SOUNDING THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE SETUP HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE SLOWLY DRIFTING TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE
WEST/CENTRAL CONUS WHILE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
THIS HAS LEAD TO SE MI BEING LOCATED IN BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINATE
FEATURES WITH PERSISTENT SWERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE SENSE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG
VORT MAX...NOW AN OPEN WAVE...MOVING FROM NE TO MN/WI. THIS MEAN THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A BIT STRONGER FORCING
OVER THE AREA THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE SHORTWAVES THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THIS WAVE TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS WAVE WHICH RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH.

CURRENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING UP INTO SOUTHERN MI.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS FILLING THE SKY AS
THE MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CU FIELD TIL
THE AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BETWEEN ABOUT 22-04Z. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF THETA E WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 305-
310K WILL LIFT NORTHWARD PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST TODAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING. MODELS ARE ALL
IN THE BALLPARK OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH THE NAM COMING IN A FEW
HUNDRED HIGHER WHICH IS TYPICAL. LAPSE RATES HAVE STRUGGLED THE LAST
FEW DAYS BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE UP TO AROUND 750MB TODAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP STORMS GET GOING. A LL JET WILL NOSE UP INTO THE AREA IN
THE EVENING RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. BR
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL SEE A LINE/BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WHILE TRAVELING NE AT 35 MPH. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH LESSER THREATS BEING HAIL AND TORNADOS. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SPC HAS UPGRADED ALL OF LOWER MI
FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
IT APPEARS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRY TO PULL ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF
VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD IN THE MID 60S
AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
REMAINS UNDER ELEVATED HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PATTERN BREAKING
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY...NUMERICAL OUTPUT HAS CONVERGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTER TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE STEMS
FROM MORE EFFICIENT PHASING OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
VORTICITY ANOMALIES...AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIS JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND SOUTHERN TAIL OF VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL DRAG
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPORT TO THE CWA. PERSISTENCE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUGGESTS
SIMILAR CAPE VALUES WED WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1200 J/KG OF
SBCAPE/MLCAPE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TROUGH/THETA E GRADIENT/WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST...WITH QUICKER TIMING NEGATING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IN SLOWER
SOLUTION...RICHEST EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO
RESIDE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED COVERAGE POST
18Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER SCENARIO PRIOR TO 18Z. THE DEEPER WIND
FIELD WILL HAVE STRIPPED OUT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
RANGING 15-25 KNOTS. THE CONDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS MESSAGING OF JUST A
STANDARD THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS
MARGINAL DESIGNATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN...TIED TO
RICHER THETA E CONTENT.

THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRACKING LOCALLY...SEEKING OUT THE
LAKE HURON/ERIE AGGREGATE. GONE DRY THURSDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LOW SKY FRACTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

FRIDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT DAY OR SO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE QUICKER STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE COULD OCCUR
AND SERVE AS BLOCKING FOR THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND FORCING.
FOR NOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS
VERY WELL COULD BE PUSHED BACK WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPS THAN WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S COULD BE IN PLAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 261523
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1123 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE 5PM
TO 10 PM PERIOD THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
RESIDE ALONG THE WEST FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED H7-H5 MOISTURE PLUME
ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF THE GREATEST, THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY GREAT,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST EAST OF SAINT LOUIS, MISSOURI.

PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEAD
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WORKS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY 19-21Z, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GIVEN INITIALLY POOR THERMODYNAMICS. 12Z NAM INDICATES A MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCEL ACHIEVING UP TO 1,000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z BEFORE
UNREALISTIC CONVECTION CONTAMINATES REMAINING OUTPUT. ITS 4-KM
COUNTERPART AND OTHER CONVECTION-RESOLVING GUIDANCE INDICATE A
COUPLE HOURS YET OF CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND THE EMBEDDED ARC OF CONVECTION WORK
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THIS INFORMATION IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR STRATUS TO BURN OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
INCREASES THE PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TO THE TUNE
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN BE A
TIME-OF-ARRIVAL ISSUE THAT DETERMINES EXACTLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
REMAINS BY LATE EVENING WHEN CONVECTION ARRIVES.

AMBIENT WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, PEAKING AT 35 TO
PERHAPS 40 KTS IN THE COLUMN, BUT VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 35KTS IN
THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING, WHICH MAY
COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH. A DEEP
AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINLY
SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO DYNAMIC BOWS A
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE. NO COMPLAINTS WITH
SPC DAY 1 WHICH HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY DUE TO WIND. GIVEN
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DTX PLANS TO LAUNCH AN 18Z SOUNDING THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 745 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO MI AND
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN MIXING
COMMENCES AND SCATTERS SKIES OUT. SURFACE OBS SHOW THIS STRATUS TO
BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH CIRRUS DEBRIS IS HIDING IT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z. COVERAGE WILL PEAK AROUND
00-03Z THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE THIS PERIOD FOR TSRA. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE SEE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A LOW STRATUS DECK.

FOR DTW...MAINLY MVFR STRATUS FIELD LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE
TERMINAL SHOULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z. CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BETWEEN 21-00Z BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING
  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE SETUP HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE SLOWLY DRIFTING TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE
WEST/CENTRAL CONUS WHILE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
THIS HAS LEAD TO SE MI BEING LOCATED IN BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINATE
FEATURES WITH PERSISTENT SWERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE SENSE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG
VORT MAX...NOW AN OPEN WAVE...MOVING FROM NE TO MN/WI. THIS MEAN THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A BIT STRONGER FORCING
OVER THE AREA THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE SHORTWAVES THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THIS WAVE TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS WAVE WHICH RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH.

CURRENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING UP INTO SOUTHERN MI.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS FILLING THE SKY AS
THE MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CU FIELD TIL
THE AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BETWEEN ABOUT 22-04Z. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF THETA E WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 305-
310K WILL LIFT NORTHWARD PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST TODAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING. MODELS ARE ALL
IN THE BALLPARK OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH THE NAM COMING IN A FEW
HUNDRED HIGHER WHICH IS TYPICAL. LAPSE RATES HAVE STRUGGLED THE LAST
FEW DAYS BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE UP TO AROUND 750MB TODAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP STORMS GET GOING. A LL JET WILL NOSE UP INTO THE AREA IN
THE EVENING RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. BR
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL SEE A LINE/BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WHILE TRAVELING NE AT 35 MPH. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH LESSER THREATS BEING HAIL AND TORNADOS. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SPC HAS UPGRADED ALL OF LOWER MI
FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
IT APPEARS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRY TO PULL ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF
VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD IN THE MID 60S
AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
REMAINS UNDER ELEVATED HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PATTERN BREAKING
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY...NUMERICAL OUTPUT HAS CONVERGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTER TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE STEMS
FROM MORE EFFICIENT PHASING OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
VORTICITY ANOMALIES...AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIS JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND SOUTHERN TAIL OF VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL DRAG
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPORT TO THE CWA. PERSISTENCE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUGGESTS
SIMILAR CAPE VALUES WED WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1200 J/KG OF
SBCAPE/MLCAPE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TROUGH/THETA E GRADIENT/WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST...WITH QUICKER TIMING NEGATING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IN SLOWER
SOLUTION...RICHEST EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO
RESIDE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED COVERAGE POST
18Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER SCENARIO PRIOR TO 18Z. THE DEEPER WIND
FIELD WILL HAVE STRIPPED OUT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
RANGING 15-25 KNOTS. THE CONDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS MESSAGING OF JUST A
STANDARD THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS
MARGINAL DESIGNATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN...TIED TO
RICHER THETA E CONTENT.

THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRACKING LOCALLY...SEEKING OUT THE
LAKE HURON/ERIE AGGREGATE. GONE DRY THURSDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LOW SKY FRACTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

FRIDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT DAY OR SO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE QUICKER STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE COULD OCCUR
AND SERVE AS BLOCKING FOR THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND FORCING.
FOR NOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS
VERY WELL COULD BE PUSHED BACK WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPS THAN WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S COULD BE IN PLAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 261523
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1123 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE 5PM
TO 10 PM PERIOD THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR INDICATES A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
RESIDE ALONG THE WEST FLANK OF THE ASSOCIATED H7-H5 MOISTURE PLUME
ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF THE GREATEST, THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY GREAT,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST EAST OF SAINT LOUIS, MISSOURI.

PWATS WILL JUMP TO 1.6 INCHES AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEAD
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WORKS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY 19-21Z, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
GIVEN INITIALLY POOR THERMODYNAMICS. 12Z NAM INDICATES A MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCEL ACHIEVING UP TO 1,000 J/KG CAPE BY 21Z BEFORE
UNREALISTIC CONVECTION CONTAMINATES REMAINING OUTPUT. ITS 4-KM
COUNTERPART AND OTHER CONVECTION-RESOLVING GUIDANCE INDICATE A
COUPLE HOURS YET OF CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL BEFORE THE
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND THE EMBEDDED ARC OF CONVECTION WORK
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THIS INFORMATION IN COMBINATION WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR STRATUS TO BURN OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
INCREASES THE PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TO THE TUNE
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN BE A
TIME-OF-ARRIVAL ISSUE THAT DETERMINES EXACTLY HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
REMAINS BY LATE EVENING WHEN CONVECTION ARRIVES.

AMBIENT WIND FIELD WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, PEAKING AT 35 TO
PERHAPS 40 KTS IN THE COLUMN, BUT VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SWLY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR OF 35KTS IN
THE SOUTHEAST TO 45 KTS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY CLOSER TO THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING, WHICH MAY
COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LACKING INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH. A DEEP
AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINLY
SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO DYNAMIC BOWS A
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EPISODE. NO COMPLAINTS WITH
SPC DAY 1 WHICH HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY DUE TO WIND. GIVEN
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY POTENTIAL FOR
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DTX PLANS TO LAUNCH AN 18Z SOUNDING THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 745 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO MI AND
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN MIXING
COMMENCES AND SCATTERS SKIES OUT. SURFACE OBS SHOW THIS STRATUS TO
BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH CIRRUS DEBRIS IS HIDING IT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z. COVERAGE WILL PEAK AROUND
00-03Z THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE THIS PERIOD FOR TSRA. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE SEE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A LOW STRATUS DECK.

FOR DTW...MAINLY MVFR STRATUS FIELD LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE
TERMINAL SHOULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z. CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BETWEEN 21-00Z BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING
  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE SETUP HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE SLOWLY DRIFTING TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE
WEST/CENTRAL CONUS WHILE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
THIS HAS LEAD TO SE MI BEING LOCATED IN BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINATE
FEATURES WITH PERSISTENT SWERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE SENSE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG
VORT MAX...NOW AN OPEN WAVE...MOVING FROM NE TO MN/WI. THIS MEAN THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A BIT STRONGER FORCING
OVER THE AREA THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE SHORTWAVES THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THIS WAVE TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS WAVE WHICH RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH.

CURRENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING UP INTO SOUTHERN MI.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS FILLING THE SKY AS
THE MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CU FIELD TIL
THE AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BETWEEN ABOUT 22-04Z. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF THETA E WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 305-
310K WILL LIFT NORTHWARD PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST TODAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING. MODELS ARE ALL
IN THE BALLPARK OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH THE NAM COMING IN A FEW
HUNDRED HIGHER WHICH IS TYPICAL. LAPSE RATES HAVE STRUGGLED THE LAST
FEW DAYS BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE UP TO AROUND 750MB TODAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP STORMS GET GOING. A LL JET WILL NOSE UP INTO THE AREA IN
THE EVENING RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. BR
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL SEE A LINE/BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WHILE TRAVELING NE AT 35 MPH. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH LESSER THREATS BEING HAIL AND TORNADOS. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SPC HAS UPGRADED ALL OF LOWER MI
FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
IT APPEARS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRY TO PULL ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF
VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD IN THE MID 60S
AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
REMAINS UNDER ELEVATED HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PATTERN BREAKING
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY...NUMERICAL OUTPUT HAS CONVERGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTER TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE STEMS
FROM MORE EFFICIENT PHASING OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
VORTICITY ANOMALIES...AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIS JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND SOUTHERN TAIL OF VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL DRAG
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPORT TO THE CWA. PERSISTENCE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUGGESTS
SIMILAR CAPE VALUES WED WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1200 J/KG OF
SBCAPE/MLCAPE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TROUGH/THETA E GRADIENT/WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST...WITH QUICKER TIMING NEGATING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IN SLOWER
SOLUTION...RICHEST EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO
RESIDE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED COVERAGE POST
18Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER SCENARIO PRIOR TO 18Z. THE DEEPER WIND
FIELD WILL HAVE STRIPPED OUT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
RANGING 15-25 KNOTS. THE CONDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS MESSAGING OF JUST A
STANDARD THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS
MARGINAL DESIGNATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN...TIED TO
RICHER THETA E CONTENT.

THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRACKING LOCALLY...SEEKING OUT THE
LAKE HURON/ERIE AGGREGATE. GONE DRY THURSDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LOW SKY FRACTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

FRIDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT DAY OR SO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE QUICKER STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE COULD OCCUR
AND SERVE AS BLOCKING FOR THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND FORCING.
FOR NOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS
VERY WELL COULD BE PUSHED BACK WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPS THAN WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S COULD BE IN PLAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 261145
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
745 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015


.AVIATION...

FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO MI AND
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN MIXING
COMMENCES AND SCATTERS SKIES OUT. SURFACE OBS SHOW THIS STRATUS TO
BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH CIRRUS DEBRIS IS HIDING IT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z. COVERAGE WILL PEAK AROUND
00-03Z THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE THIS PERIOD FOR TSRA. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE SEE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A LOW STRATUS DECK.

FOR DTW...MAINLY MVFR STRATUS FIELD LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE
TERMINAL SHOULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z. CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BETWEEN 21-00Z BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING
  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE SETUP HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE SLOWLY DRIFTING TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE
WEST/CENTRAL CONUS WHILE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
THIS HAS LEAD TO SE MI BEING LOCATED IN BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINATE
FEATURES WITH PERSISTENT SWERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE SENSE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG
VORT MAX...NOW AN OPEN WAVE...MOVING FROM NE TO MN/WI. THIS MEAN THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A BIT STRONGER FORCING
OVER THE AREA THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE SHORTWAVES THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THIS WAVE TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS WAVE WHICH RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH.

CURRENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING UP INTO SOUTHERN MI.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS FILLING THE SKY AS
THE MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CU FIELD TIL
THE AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BETWEEN ABOUT 22-04Z. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF THETA E WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 305-
310K WILL LIFT NORTHWARD PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST TODAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING. MODELS ARE ALL
IN THE BALLPARK OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH THE NAM COMING IN A FEW
HUNDRED HIGHER WHICH IS TYPICAL. LAPSE RATES HAVE STRUGGLED THE LAST
FEW DAYS BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE UP TO AROUND 750MB TODAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP STORMS GET GOING. A LL JET WILL NOSE UP INTO THE AREA IN
THE EVENING RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. BR
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL SEE A LINE/BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WHILE TRAVELING NE AT 35 MPH. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH LESSER THREATS BEING HAIL AND TORNADOS. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SPC HAS UPGRADED ALL OF LOWER MI
FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
IT APPEARS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRY TO PULL ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF
VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD IN THE MID 60S
AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
REMAINS UNDER ELEVATED HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PATTERN BREAKING
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY...NUMERICAL OUTPUT HAS CONVERGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTER TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE STEMS
FROM MORE EFFICIENT PHASING OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
VORTICITY ANOMALIES...AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIS JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND SOUTHERN TAIL OF VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL DRAG
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPORT TO THE CWA. PERSISTENCE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUGGESTS
SIMILAR CAPE VALUES WED WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1200 J/KG OF
SBCAPE/MLCAPE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TROUGH/THETA E GRADIENT/WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST...WITH QUICKER TIMING NEGATING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IN SLOWER
SOLUTION...RICHEST EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO
RESIDE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED COVERAGE POST
18Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER SCENARIO PRIOR TO 18Z. THE DEEPER WIND
FIELD WILL HAVE STRIPPED OUT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
RANGING 15-25 KNOTS. THE CONDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS MESSAGING OF JUST A
STANDARD THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS
MARGINAL DESIGNATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN...TIED TO
RICHER THETA E CONTENT.

THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRACKING LOCALLY...SEEKING OUT THE
LAKE HURON/ERIE AGGREGATE. GONE DRY THURSDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LOW SKY FRACTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

FRIDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT DAY OR SO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE QUICKER STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE COULD OCCUR
AND SERVE AS BLOCKING FOR THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND FORCING.
FOR NOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS
VERY WELL COULD BE PUSHED BACK WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPS THAN WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S COULD BE IN PLAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).




000
FXUS63 KDTX 261145
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
745 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015


.AVIATION...

FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO MI AND
SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TERMINALS UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN MIXING
COMMENCES AND SCATTERS SKIES OUT. SURFACE OBS SHOW THIS STRATUS TO
BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TO OUR SOUTH THOUGH CIRRUS DEBRIS IS HIDING IT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z. COVERAGE WILL PEAK AROUND
00-03Z THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE THIS PERIOD FOR TSRA. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WE SEE A
TRANSITION BACK TO A LOW STRATUS DECK.

FOR DTW...MAINLY MVFR STRATUS FIELD LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE
TERMINAL SHOULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z. CIGS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BETWEEN 21-00Z BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO FALL
BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING
  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MEDIUM THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL LONGWAVE SETUP HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE SLOWLY DRIFTING TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE
WEST/CENTRAL CONUS WHILE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST HOLDS STRONG.
THIS HAS LEAD TO SE MI BEING LOCATED IN BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINATE
FEATURES WITH PERSISTENT SWERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE SENSE THAT
THE TROUGH WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG
VORT MAX...NOW AN OPEN WAVE...MOVING FROM NE TO MN/WI. THIS MEAN THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A BIT STRONGER FORCING
OVER THE AREA THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE SHORTWAVES THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THIS WAVE TO BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS WAVE WHICH RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH.

CURRENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SWING UP INTO SOUTHERN MI.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS FILLING THE SKY AS
THE MID LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CU FIELD TIL
THE AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BETWEEN ABOUT 22-04Z. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF THETA E WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 305-
310K WILL LIFT NORTHWARD PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST TODAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING DURING PEAK HEATING. MODELS ARE ALL
IN THE BALLPARK OF AROUND 500 J/KG WITH THE NAM COMING IN A FEW
HUNDRED HIGHER WHICH IS TYPICAL. LAPSE RATES HAVE STRUGGLED THE LAST
FEW DAYS BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE UP TO AROUND 750MB TODAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP STORMS GET GOING. A LL JET WILL NOSE UP INTO THE AREA IN
THE EVENING RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. BR
SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL SEE A LINE/BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS WHILE TRAVELING NE AT 35 MPH. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH LESSER THREATS BEING HAIL AND TORNADOS. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES. SPC HAS UPGRADED ALL OF LOWER MI
FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS
IT APPEARS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRY TO PULL ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF
VORTICITY THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE MID LEVEL COOL POOL SLIDES
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD IN THE MID 60S
AS SW FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOCATED UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.

LONG TERM...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
REMAINS UNDER ELEVATED HEIGHTS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PATTERN BREAKING
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY...NUMERICAL OUTPUT HAS CONVERGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
ADVERTISING A SOLUTION FOR A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTER TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE STEMS
FROM MORE EFFICIENT PHASING OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
VORTICITY ANOMALIES...AND ASSOCIATED JET ENTRANCE REGION. THIS JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND SOUTHERN TAIL OF VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL DRAG
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPORT TO THE CWA. PERSISTENCE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUGGESTS
SIMILAR CAPE VALUES WED WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1200 J/KG OF
SBCAPE/MLCAPE POSSIBLE. SURFACE TROUGH/THETA E GRADIENT/WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
IMPORTANT FOR THE FORECAST...WITH QUICKER TIMING NEGATING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IN SLOWER
SOLUTION...RICHEST EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO
RESIDE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SCATTERED COVERAGE POST
18Z...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER SCENARIO PRIOR TO 18Z. THE DEEPER WIND
FIELD WILL HAVE STRIPPED OUT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
RANGING 15-25 KNOTS. THE CONDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS MESSAGING OF JUST A
STANDARD THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR WEDNESDAY. LATEST SWODY2 KEEPS
MARGINAL DESIGNATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN...TIED TO
RICHER THETA E CONTENT.

THURSDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRACKING LOCALLY...SEEKING OUT THE
LAKE HURON/ERIE AGGREGATE. GONE DRY THURSDAY...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LOW SKY FRACTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

FRIDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT DAY OR SO HOW THE MODELS HANDLE
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHERN CANADA.
IT REMAINS POSSIBLE QUICKER STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE COULD OCCUR
AND SERVE AS BLOCKING FOR THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND FORCING.
FOR NOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS
VERY WELL COULD BE PUSHED BACK WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPS THAN WHAT IS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS. MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S COULD BE IN PLAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS RANGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





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