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000
FXUS63 KDTX 260746
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AS SEEN IN 00Z DTX RAOB...AND WITH CU RULE
DECIDINGLY POSITIVE (EXCEPTION OVER FAR NORTHERN THUMB REGION) FOR
TODAY...LOOKING AT SUNNY FORECAST...WITH MAXES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES...PER
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE. WITH CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE ON TOP OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHT...BUT SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO BE STREAMING IN LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
MINS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. RAIN CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN CWA CLOSE TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH DEEPER IN THE CAPPED WARM SECTOR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AFFORDED BY THE WARM MOIST AIR. HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE HURON AND HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR.

THE MAIN LOW WILL BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OUT TO THE WEST BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A STRONG 110 KNOT 250 MB UPPER LEVEL JET MAKES
ITS WAY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LOW ITSELF WILL THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY...PUSHING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...CLEARING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY COOL AIR
QUICKLY ENDING SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY INTO THE LOW CHANCY CATEGORY.
CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

A PUSH OF COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK DOWN TO REALITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LIMITED TO
THE LOWER 50S AS WEAK RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER DRY BUT WITH
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE TO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A STEADY FALL FROM
AROUND 50 ON THURSDAY...TO AROUND 40 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW WILL NOT PACK MUCH OF A PUNCH PRECIPITATION WISE...IT WILL
BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
AROUND -10 CELSIUS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD AIR AND
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THUMB FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

.A STRONG LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON WHERE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WINDS GUSTING TO LOW-
END GALES. IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE SIGNIFICANT WAVES
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SEVERAL FEET. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1148 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

NIGHTTIME COOLING AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS DROPPING AND/OR REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. A VERY DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC...UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 260348
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1148 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

NIGHTTIME COOLING AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS DROPPING AND/OR REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. A VERY DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO RELAX WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPING THIS EVENING. THESE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...DESPITE THE FACT
THAT MANY AREAS HAVE REACHED THE MIDDLE 60S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20 MPH OR BETTER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING
BEGINS BY SUNSET OR SO.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 3 TO 5 CELSIUS.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ACTING
AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN...MAINLY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS COME IN
FASTER THIS RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOCK STEP WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION...IT IS IN THE SAME BALL PARK TO ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN FROPA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY RATHER THAN A POSSIBLE FROPA SOLUTION THAT IS A WHOLE 12
HOURS APART PER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OFF TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THEREFORE WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR SENDS AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A GREAT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN HOLIDAY
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN FROM 1002 TO 994 MB AS THE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSS MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT MID LEVEL
WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW OUTSIDE OF THE TUESDAY RAIN EVENT.

MARINE...

A STRONG LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO RAMP UP
OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON WHERE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
WINDS GUSTING TO LOW-END GALES. IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SEVERAL FEET.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC...UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 252301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS A RESULT OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DROP IN THE GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS AROUND 00Z.
SUBTLE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AMIDST A STRONG W-NW GRADIENT
SHOULD HOWEVER SUSTAIN WIND SPEEDS IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL NIGHTTIME COOLING AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO RELAX WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPING THIS EVENING. THESE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...DESPITE THE FACT
THAT MANY AREAS HAVE REACHED THE MIDDLE 60S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20 MPH OR BETTER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING
BEGINS BY SUNSET OR SO.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 3 TO 5 CELSIUS.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ACTING
AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN...MAINLY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS COME IN
FASTER THIS RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOCK STEP WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION...IT IS IN THE SAME BALL PARK TO ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN FROPA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY RATHER THAN A POSSIBLE FROPA SOLUTION THAT IS A WHOLE 12
HOURS APART PER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OFF TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THEREFORE WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR SENDS AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A GREAT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN HOLIDAY
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN FROM 1002 TO 994 MB AS THE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSS MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT MID LEVEL
WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW OUTSIDE OF THE TUESDAY RAIN EVENT.

MARINE...

A STRONG LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO RAMP UP
OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON WHERE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
WINDS GUSTING TO LOW-END GALES. IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SEVERAL FEET.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC...FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM
     SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 251948
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO RELAX WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPING THIS EVENING. THESE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...DESPITE THE FACT
THAT MANY AREAS HAVE REACHED THE MIDDLE 60S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 20 MPH OR BETTER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING
BEGINS BY SUNSET OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 3 TO 5 CELSIUS.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ACTING
AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN...MAINLY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS COME IN
FASTER THIS RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOCK STEP WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION...IT IS IN THE SAME BALL PARK TO ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN FROPA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY RATHER THAN A POSSIBLE FROPA SOLUTION THAT IS A WHOLE 12
HOURS APART PER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OFF TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THEREFORE WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR SENDS AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A GREAT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN HOLIDAY
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN FROM 1002 TO 994 MB AS THE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSS MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT MID LEVEL
WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW OUTSIDE OF THE TUESDAY RAIN EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...

.A STRONG LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO RAMP UP
OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON WHERE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
WINDS GUSTING TO LOW-END GALES. IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXPOSED NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE THUMB WHERE
SIGNIFICANT WAVES HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SEVERAL FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 115 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

REMAINING STRATUS WILL ERODE QUICKLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS MUCH
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR-FEW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG MIXING WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA...WITH WINDS FROM 280-290 DEG. THE
LOSS OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN WINDS FROM 270 DEG AT UNDER 10 KNOTS
BY THIS EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC...FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 4
     PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC/MM
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 251715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

REMAINING STRATUS WILL ERODE QUICKLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS MUCH
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR-FEW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG MIXING WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA...WITH WINDS FROM 280-290 DEG. THE
LOSS OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN WINDS FROM 270 DEG AT UNDER 10 KNOTS
BY THIS EVENING.


//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH DEVELOPED BY MIDNIGHT...THE GOOD
RADIATORS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. THERE IS SOME FOG AROUND...LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...BUT
CONDITATIONS SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNRISE AS
CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BASED ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPSTREAM LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH EASILY EXCEEDS 925 MB. BASED ON FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING AS MAXES IN THE
60S...WITH THE STANDARD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT UNDER THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SPEAKING OF GRADIENTS...THERE LOOKS TO BE SHARP
850 MB RH GRADIENT WITH THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR CLOUDS...PER 12Z NAM. HOWEVER..WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS...SHOULD SEE BIT
MORE UNIFORM MINS...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALLOWING MINS TO DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 3 TO 5 CELSIUS.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ACTING
AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN...MAINLY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS COME IN
FASTER THIS RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOCK STEP WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION...IT IS IN THE SAME BALL PARK TO ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN FROPA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY RATHER THAN A POSSIBLE FROPA SOLUTION THAT IS A WHOLE 12
HOURS APART PER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OFF TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THEREFORE WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR SENDS AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A GREAT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN HOLIDAY
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR POSSIBLY
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS BEHIND THIS
DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE. THESE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE...WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENS. ELEVATED
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONE FROM
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT
IS FORECAST TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE BREVITY...UNCERTAINTY...AND THE FACT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET UNTIL SUNDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM
     SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 251715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

REMAINING STRATUS WILL ERODE QUICKLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS MUCH
DRIER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR-FEW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG MIXING WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA...WITH WINDS FROM 280-290 DEG. THE
LOSS OF MIXING WILL RESULT IN WINDS FROM 270 DEG AT UNDER 10 KNOTS
BY THIS EVENING.


//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH DEVELOPED BY MIDNIGHT...THE GOOD
RADIATORS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. THERE IS SOME FOG AROUND...LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...BUT
CONDITATIONS SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNRISE AS
CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BASED ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPSTREAM LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH EASILY EXCEEDS 925 MB. BASED ON FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING AS MAXES IN THE
60S...WITH THE STANDARD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT UNDER THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SPEAKING OF GRADIENTS...THERE LOOKS TO BE SHARP
850 MB RH GRADIENT WITH THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR CLOUDS...PER 12Z NAM. HOWEVER..WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS...SHOULD SEE BIT
MORE UNIFORM MINS...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALLOWING MINS TO DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 3 TO 5 CELSIUS.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ACTING
AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN...MAINLY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS COME IN
FASTER THIS RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOCK STEP WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION...IT IS IN THE SAME BALL PARK TO ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN FROPA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY RATHER THAN A POSSIBLE FROPA SOLUTION THAT IS A WHOLE 12
HOURS APART PER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OFF TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THEREFORE WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR SENDS AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A GREAT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN HOLIDAY
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR POSSIBLY
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS BEHIND THIS
DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE. THESE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE...WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENS. ELEVATED
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONE FROM
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT
IS FORECAST TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE BREVITY...UNCERTAINTY...AND THE FACT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET UNTIL SUNDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM
     SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 251104
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

MVFR/LOW VFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CLEARING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALSO RAMP UP...WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING AND EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SEND SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS TOWARD
THE AREA...MAINLY UP TOWARD MBS. WITH THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN AND
WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING UP AROUND 10 KNOTS...NO FOG CONCERNS
TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH DEVELOPED BY MIDNIGHT...THE GOOD
RADIATORS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. THERE IS SOME FOG AROUND...LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...BUT
CONDITATIONS SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNRISE AS
CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BASED ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPSTREAM LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH EASILY EXCEEDS 925 MB. BASED ON FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING AS MAXES IN THE
60S...WITH THE STANDARD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT UNDER THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SPEAKING OF GRADIENTS...THERE LOOKS TO BE SHARP
850 MB RH GRADIENT WITH THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR CLOUDS...PER 12Z NAM. HOWEVER..WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS...SHOULD SEE BIT
MORE UNIFORM MINS...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALLOWING MINS TO DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 3 TO 5 CELSIUS.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ACTING
AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN...MAINLY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS COME IN
FASTER THIS RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOCK STEP WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION...IT IS IN THE SAME BALL PARK TO ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN FROPA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY RATHER THAN A POSSIBLE FROPA SOLUTION THAT IS A WHOLE 12
HOURS APART PER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OFF TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THEREFORE WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR SENDS AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A GREAT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN HOLIDAY
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR POSSIBLY
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS BEHIND THIS
DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE. THESE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE...WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENS. ELEVATED
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONE FROM
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT
IS FORECAST TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE BREVITY...UNCERTAINTY...AND THE FACT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET UNTIL SUNDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM
     SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 251104
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

MVFR/LOW VFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CLEARING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALSO RAMP UP...WITH GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING AND EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SEND SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS TOWARD
THE AREA...MAINLY UP TOWARD MBS. WITH THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN AND
WESTERLY WINDS HOLDING UP AROUND 10 KNOTS...NO FOG CONCERNS
TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH DEVELOPED BY MIDNIGHT...THE GOOD
RADIATORS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. THERE IS SOME FOG AROUND...LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...BUT
CONDITATIONS SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNRISE AS
CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BASED ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPSTREAM LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH EASILY EXCEEDS 925 MB. BASED ON FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING AS MAXES IN THE
60S...WITH THE STANDARD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT UNDER THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SPEAKING OF GRADIENTS...THERE LOOKS TO BE SHARP
850 MB RH GRADIENT WITH THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR CLOUDS...PER 12Z NAM. HOWEVER..WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS...SHOULD SEE BIT
MORE UNIFORM MINS...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALLOWING MINS TO DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 3 TO 5 CELSIUS.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ACTING
AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN...MAINLY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS COME IN
FASTER THIS RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOCK STEP WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION...IT IS IN THE SAME BALL PARK TO ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN FROPA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY RATHER THAN A POSSIBLE FROPA SOLUTION THAT IS A WHOLE 12
HOURS APART PER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OFF TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THEREFORE WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR SENDS AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A GREAT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN HOLIDAY
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR POSSIBLY
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS BEHIND THIS
DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE. THESE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE...WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENS. ELEVATED
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONE FROM
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT
IS FORECAST TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE BREVITY...UNCERTAINTY...AND THE FACT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET UNTIL SUNDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM
     SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 250749
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH DEVELOPED BY MIDNIGHT...THE GOOD
RADIATORS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. THERE IS SOME FOG AROUND...LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS...BUT
CONDITATIONS SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNRISE AS
CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BASED ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPSTREAM LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ANY REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEPTH EASILY EXCEEDS 925 MB. BASED ON FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKING AS MAXES IN THE
60S...WITH THE STANDARD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT UNDER THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. SPEAKING OF GRADIENTS...THERE LOOKS TO BE SHARP
850 MB RH GRADIENT WITH THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT...BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN THUMB REGION...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR CLOUDS...PER 12Z NAM. HOWEVER..WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT...CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS...SHOULD SEE BIT
MORE UNIFORM MINS...WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALLOWING MINS TO DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 3 TO 5 CELSIUS.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO COMMENCE IN EARNEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 12 TO 14 CELSIUS. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ACTING
AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE THE FRONT WILL SETTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ASSIST IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY...WITH WARM MOIST AIR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...HIGHS WILL VARY GREATLY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
ACROSS THE THUMB GIVEN A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OFF LAKE
HURON...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AWAY FROM THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS RUN...MAINLY THE ECMWF WHICH HAS COME IN
FASTER THIS RUN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOCK STEP WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION...IT IS IN THE SAME BALL PARK TO ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN FROPA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY RATHER THAN A POSSIBLE FROPA SOLUTION THAT IS A WHOLE 12
HOURS APART PER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OFF TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THEREFORE WILL DRY OUT THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR SENDS AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SOME SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LEND ITSELF TO A GREAT DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN HOLIDAY
AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR POSSIBLY
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS BEHIND THIS
DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE. THESE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF LAKE HURON TONIGHT.
FURTHER SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE
FORCE...WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENS. ELEVATED
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT SANILAC. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONE FROM
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT
IS FORECAST TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE BREVITY...UNCERTAINTY...AND THE FACT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET UNTIL SUNDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1208 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AT
THE MOMENT. BEFORE THE FOG IS ABLE TO GET DENSE OR DENSE FOR
ANY EXTENDED PERIOD...LOOKING AT A RETURN OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 9-12Z. THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL THEN LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...A GOOD DEAL OF DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALSO RAMP UP...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING
AND EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SEND SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS TOWARD
THE AREA...MAINLY UP TOWARD MBS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET 10-18Z.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM
     SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 4 PM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SF


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 250408
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1208 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AT
THE MOMENT. BEFORE THE FOG IS ABLE TO GET DENSE OR DENSE FOR
ANY EXTENDED PERIOD...LOOKING AT A RETURN OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 9-12Z. THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL THEN LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...A GOOD DEAL OF DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALSO RAMP UP...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING
AND EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SEND SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS TOWARD
THE AREA...MAINLY UP TOWARD MBS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET 10-18Z.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

THE TREND OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS UNDER A FRAGMENTED STRATO-CU DECK
CONTINUES TODAY. SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME SPOTTY CLEARING IN THE CLOUD FIELD...AND THESE WILL BE THE
AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ADD TO THE DEPTH OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS H85 TEMPS UP FROM
5 TO 10C IN 12 HOURS. EXPECTING A VERY WARM NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
AS THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT QUITE CROSS INTO THE CWA BY 12Z. WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS...BUT COULD EVEN SEE 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER IF OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSIST ALL EVENING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS
CHANCE WILL BE MITIGATED BY WINDS AROUND 5KT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT AND RADIATE WILL HOLD THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPING FOG...AND THAT CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-69 AT
THIS POINT. MODEL 925MB MOISTURE IS QUITE ROBUST TONIGHT...SO THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDY/WARM/FOGLESS CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z. DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY ALSO ADD A NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED
BY THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ATTENDENT TO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX INVADING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY IMPINGING DOWN INTO AND BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORECAST ANALYSES SHOW A FAVORABLE
STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF WAA ASCENT FROM ROUGHLY 9-16Z SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WARM/MOIST THETA E WASH. THERE IS A GOOD INITIAL
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPPED BY VERY STRONG AND ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS NOISY AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A
DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT. SATURATION IS GOING TO BE RAZOR THIN IN
AND AROUND A POTENTIAL THIN UNSTABLE POCKET BETWEEN 925-900MB. THROW
IN THE MODEL TRYING TO MAINTAIN SOME NOISY AND SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE
SHREDS...AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON EDT. AT MINIMUM THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME
VIRGA ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR. IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO
MEASURE...LOOKING AT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAX. TIME OF YEAR REQUIRES
ADDITIONAL ATTENTION TO CLOUDS. THERE IS A GOOD TRAPPING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION STRUCTURE WITH SOME
HINTS THAT SATURATION WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED METERS OF
THE STABLE LAYER. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST TO GO SLUGGISH WITH THE EXIT OF CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN CLOUDS
UNTIL AS LATE AS 4 PM...WITH A RAPID CLEARING TREND THEREAFTER.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CLEAR SEMICH BETWEEN 15-21Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW OF 10-20 MPH WILL HELP THE
MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESS IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
FALL FROM 8-9C SATURDAY...DOWN TO 3-5C FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH GIVES NO SHOT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LEAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAKING INTO THE AREA. NOT REALLY BAD THOUGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER...PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CHECKING IN RIGHT AT AVERAGE.

MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SE MI BEGINNING MONDAY. WET WEATHER
LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...WITH COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR
POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS
BEHIND THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSITION ITSELF. A SHIFT IN
PLACEMENT TO THE NORTH WOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED
CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BUT DID INCREASE FORECASTED WINDGUSTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 30
KNOT RANGE. STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ESTABLISHED
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 250408
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1208 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AT
THE MOMENT. BEFORE THE FOG IS ABLE TO GET DENSE OR DENSE FOR
ANY EXTENDED PERIOD...LOOKING AT A RETURN OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 9-12Z. THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL THEN LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...A GOOD DEAL OF DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS WESTERLY WINDS ALSO RAMP UP...WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING
AND EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SEND SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS TOWARD
THE AREA...MAINLY UP TOWARD MBS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET 10-18Z.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

THE TREND OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS UNDER A FRAGMENTED STRATO-CU DECK
CONTINUES TODAY. SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME SPOTTY CLEARING IN THE CLOUD FIELD...AND THESE WILL BE THE
AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ADD TO THE DEPTH OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS H85 TEMPS UP FROM
5 TO 10C IN 12 HOURS. EXPECTING A VERY WARM NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
AS THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT QUITE CROSS INTO THE CWA BY 12Z. WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS...BUT COULD EVEN SEE 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER IF OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSIST ALL EVENING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS
CHANCE WILL BE MITIGATED BY WINDS AROUND 5KT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT AND RADIATE WILL HOLD THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPING FOG...AND THAT CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-69 AT
THIS POINT. MODEL 925MB MOISTURE IS QUITE ROBUST TONIGHT...SO THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDY/WARM/FOGLESS CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z. DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY ALSO ADD A NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED
BY THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ATTENDENT TO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX INVADING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY IMPINGING DOWN INTO AND BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORECAST ANALYSES SHOW A FAVORABLE
STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF WAA ASCENT FROM ROUGHLY 9-16Z SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WARM/MOIST THETA E WASH. THERE IS A GOOD INITIAL
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPPED BY VERY STRONG AND ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS NOISY AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A
DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT. SATURATION IS GOING TO BE RAZOR THIN IN
AND AROUND A POTENTIAL THIN UNSTABLE POCKET BETWEEN 925-900MB. THROW
IN THE MODEL TRYING TO MAINTAIN SOME NOISY AND SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE
SHREDS...AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON EDT. AT MINIMUM THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME
VIRGA ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR. IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO
MEASURE...LOOKING AT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAX. TIME OF YEAR REQUIRES
ADDITIONAL ATTENTION TO CLOUDS. THERE IS A GOOD TRAPPING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION STRUCTURE WITH SOME
HINTS THAT SATURATION WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED METERS OF
THE STABLE LAYER. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST TO GO SLUGGISH WITH THE EXIT OF CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN CLOUDS
UNTIL AS LATE AS 4 PM...WITH A RAPID CLEARING TREND THEREAFTER.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CLEAR SEMICH BETWEEN 15-21Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW OF 10-20 MPH WILL HELP THE
MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESS IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
FALL FROM 8-9C SATURDAY...DOWN TO 3-5C FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH GIVES NO SHOT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LEAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAKING INTO THE AREA. NOT REALLY BAD THOUGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER...PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CHECKING IN RIGHT AT AVERAGE.

MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SE MI BEGINNING MONDAY. WET WEATHER
LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...WITH COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR
POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS
BEHIND THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSITION ITSELF. A SHIFT IN
PLACEMENT TO THE NORTH WOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED
CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BUT DID INCREASE FORECASTED WINDGUSTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 30
KNOT RANGE. STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ESTABLISHED
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 242301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING TROUGH RESULTED IN A STRATO CU
FIELD WHICH SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2
TO 3 HOURS. THERE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO LIFT
BASES INTO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT THESE CLOUDS BY LATE
EVENING. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG AND OR/LOW
STRATUS WITH SUBTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST THOUGHTS REMAIN THAT FOG WILL BE MORE PROBABLE.
HOWEVER...TRENDS WITH THE LOW STRATUS NOW COVERING W-CNTL LOWER MI
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THEY MAY SLIDE INTO MBS
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG ANOTHER SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS /MVFR OR POSSIBLE
IFR/ BACK TO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SOME POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY DUE TO
FOG LATE TONIGHT WILL BE KEPT IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ATTM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING...LOW
  CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

THE TREND OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS UNDER A FRAGMENTED STRATO-CU DECK
CONTINUES TODAY. SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME SPOTTY CLEARING IN THE CLOUD FIELD...AND THESE WILL BE THE
AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ADD TO THE DEPTH OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS H85 TEMPS UP FROM
5 TO 10C IN 12 HOURS. EXPECTING A VERY WARM NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
AS THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT QUITE CROSS INTO THE CWA BY 12Z. WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS...BUT COULD EVEN SEE 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER IF OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSIST ALL EVENING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS
CHANCE WILL BE MITIGATED BY WINDS AROUND 5KT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT AND RADIATE WILL HOLD THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPING FOG...AND THAT CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-69 AT
THIS POINT. MODEL 925MB MOISTURE IS QUITE ROBUST TONIGHT...SO THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDY/WARM/FOGLESS CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z. DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY ALSO ADD A NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED
BY THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ATTENDENT TO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX INVADING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY IMPINGING DOWN INTO AND BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORECAST ANALYSES SHOW A FAVORABLE
STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF WAA ASCENT FROM ROUGHLY 9-16Z SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WARM/MOIST THETA E WASH. THERE IS A GOOD INITIAL
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPPED BY VERY STRONG AND ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS NOISY AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A
DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT. SATURATION IS GOING TO BE RAZOR THIN IN
AND AROUND A POTENTIAL THIN UNSTABLE POCKET BETWEEN 925-900MB. THROW
IN THE MODEL TRYING TO MAINTAIN SOME NOISY AND SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE
SHREDS...AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON EDT. AT MINIMUM THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME
VIRGA ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR. IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO
MEASURE...LOOKING AT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAX. TIME OF YEAR REQUIRES
ADDITIONAL ATTENTION TO CLOUDS. THERE IS A GOOD TRAPPING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION STRUCTURE WITH SOME
HINTS THAT SATURATION WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED METERS OF
THE STABLE LAYER. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST TO GO SLUGGISH WITH THE EXIT OF CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN CLOUDS
UNTIL AS LATE AS 4 PM...WITH A RAPID CLEARING TREND THEREAFTER.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CLEAR SEMICH BETWEEN 15-21Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW OF 10-20 MPH WILL HELP THE
MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESS IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
FALL FROM 8-9C SATURDAY...DOWN TO 3-5C FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH GIVES NO SHOT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LEAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAKING INTO THE AREA. NOT REALLY BAD THOUGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER...PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CHECKING IN RIGHT AT AVERAGE.

MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SE MI BEGINNING MONDAY. WET WEATHER
LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...WITH COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR
POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS
BEHIND THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSITION ITSELF. A SHIFT IN
PLACEMENT TO THE NORTH WOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED
CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BUT DID INCREASE FORECASTED WINDGUSTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 30
KNOT RANGE. STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ESTABLISHED
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241940
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

THE TREND OF VARIABLE CLOUDINESS UNDER A FRAGMENTED STRATO-CU DECK
CONTINUES TODAY. SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME SPOTTY CLEARING IN THE CLOUD FIELD...AND THESE WILL BE THE
AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ADD TO THE DEPTH OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS H85 TEMPS UP FROM
5 TO 10C IN 12 HOURS. EXPECTING A VERY WARM NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
AS THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT QUITE CROSS INTO THE CWA BY 12Z. WENT
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MINS...BUT COULD EVEN SEE 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER IF OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSIST ALL EVENING.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS
CHANCE WILL BE MITIGATED BY WINDS AROUND 5KT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT AND RADIATE WILL HOLD THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPING FOG...AND THAT CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-69 AT
THIS POINT. MODEL 925MB MOISTURE IS QUITE ROBUST TONIGHT...SO THERE
IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDY/WARM/FOGLESS CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z. DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY ALSO ADD A NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED
BY THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ATTENDENT TO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION
OF THE +160 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX INVADING THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS DEPICT THIS WELL WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY IMPINGING DOWN INTO AND BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORECAST ANALYSES SHOW A FAVORABLE
STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF WAA ASCENT FROM ROUGHLY 9-16Z SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WARM/MOIST THETA E WASH. THERE IS A GOOD INITIAL
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPPED BY VERY STRONG AND ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE IS NOISY AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A
DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT. SATURATION IS GOING TO BE RAZOR THIN IN
AND AROUND A POTENTIAL THIN UNSTABLE POCKET BETWEEN 925-900MB. THROW
IN THE MODEL TRYING TO MAINTAIN SOME NOISY AND SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE
SHREDS...AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON EDT. AT MINIMUM THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME
VIRGA ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR. IF ANY PRECIPITATION WERE TO
MEASURE...LOOKING AT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO MAX. TIME OF YEAR REQUIRES
ADDITIONAL ATTENTION TO CLOUDS. THERE IS A GOOD TRAPPING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION STRUCTURE WITH SOME
HINTS THAT SATURATION WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED METERS OF
THE STABLE LAYER. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST TO GO SLUGGISH WITH THE EXIT OF CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THAT MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN CLOUDS
UNTIL AS LATE AS 4 PM...WITH A RAPID CLEARING TREND THEREAFTER.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CLEAR SEMICH BETWEEN 15-21Z FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW OF 10-20 MPH WILL HELP THE
MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESS IN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
FALL FROM 8-9C SATURDAY...DOWN TO 3-5C FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH GIVES NO SHOT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LEAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAKING INTO THE AREA. NOT REALLY BAD THOUGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER...PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CHECKING IN RIGHT AT AVERAGE.

MODELS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SE MI BEGINNING MONDAY. WET WEATHER
LOOKS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY...WITH COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH COLD AIR
POSSIBLY BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF LAKE HURON. IT IS
BEHIND THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
QUITE UNSTABLE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL POSITION ITSELF. A SHIFT IN
PLACEMENT TO THE NORTH WOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED
CONDITIONS. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BUT DID INCREASE FORECASTED WINDGUSTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 30
KNOT RANGE. STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ESTABLISHED
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1242 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS PAINT A PICTURE OF BROKEN STRATO-
CU STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE TAF CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FRACTURE AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BROKEN CIGS TO HOVER IN THE
3-5KFT RANGE BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING DEADENS THE
THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER THREAT FOR STRATUS AND BR TO
REACH MVFR LEVELS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
  HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MM


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241642
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1242 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS PAINT A PICTURE OF BROEKN STRATO-
CU STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE TAF CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FRACTURE AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BROKEN CIGS TO HOVER IN THE
3-5KFT RANGE BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING DEADENS THE
THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER THREAT FOR STRATUS AND BR TO
REACH MVFR LEVELS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
  HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MM
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241052
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) AROUND TODAY AS BATCH OF
MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LATE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DECK
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET. A RENEWED PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPPORTING LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY INTO
  TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 241052
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) AROUND TODAY AS BATCH OF
MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. LATE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DECK
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET. A RENEWED PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPPORTING LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CEILINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY INTO
  TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 240733
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE BATCH OF ELGONATED SOUTH-NORTH MOISTURE (PW VALUES AROUND 0.75
INCHES) IS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS UPPER WAVE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 925 MB TEMPS
FORECASTED TO RISE TO 10 C...PER BOTH 00Z GFS AND NAM. THIS SUGGESTS
TODAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...LOWER 60S/AROUND 60...BUT THERE IS SOME
HESITATION WITH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AROUND.

NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RACES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WITH 1000-
500 MB MEAN RH REMAINING LESS THAN 60 PERCENT...PLANNING ON
MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...PLANNING
ON HOLDING MINS IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRUNG OUT DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND NOT
MUCH ELSE. DESPITE THE MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECTATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY.

RIDGING WILL BRING DRY...QUIET WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN APPROACHING LOW WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION ON
MONDAY.

A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INCREASED
TOTAL TOTALS AND K-INDEX VALUES BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE NWP
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THE GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST
AND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE ABUNDANCE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SE MI...NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND DROP IN CEILINGS SHOULD BE A
VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY NOT TRACKING
INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND BASED ON
THE 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...CLOUDS BASES MAY HOLD ABOVE 5000 FT RIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE THIS
  MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 240354
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST
AND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE ABUNDANCE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SE MI...NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND DROP IN CEILINGS SHOULD BE A
VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY NOT TRACKING
INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND BASED ON
THE 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...CLOUDS BASES MAY HOLD ABOVE 5000 FT RIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE THIS
  MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1004 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...

THE UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE TOO FAR
INTO SE MI IN LIGHT OF THE SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE PROLONGED CLEARING THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/
WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 240354
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST
AND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THE ABUNDANCE OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SE MI...NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND DROP IN CEILINGS SHOULD BE A
VERY GRADUAL PROCESS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY NOT TRACKING
INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND BASED ON
THE 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...CLOUDS BASES MAY HOLD ABOVE 5000 FT RIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE THIS
  MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1004 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...

THE UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE TOO FAR
INTO SE MI IN LIGHT OF THE SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE PROLONGED CLEARING THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/
WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 240204
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1004 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE TOO FAR
INTO SE MI IN LIGHT OF THE SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE PROLONGED CLEARING THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/
WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 701 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MI WILL
MAINTAIN CEILINGS BELOW 12K FT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH NOW PUSHING INTO LAKE MI WILL WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO LOWER
MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GREATLY DIMINISH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN INCREASE IN LOWER BASED CLOUDS /MAINLY
IN THE 2500 TO 5000 FT RANGE/ ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO
THE TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND PERSIST OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 240204
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1004 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE TOO FAR
INTO SE MI IN LIGHT OF THE SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE PROLONGED CLEARING THIS EVENING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/
WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 701 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MI WILL
MAINTAIN CEILINGS BELOW 12K FT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH NOW PUSHING INTO LAKE MI WILL WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO LOWER
MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GREATLY DIMINISH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN INCREASE IN LOWER BASED CLOUDS /MAINLY
IN THE 2500 TO 5000 FT RANGE/ ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO
THE TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND PERSIST OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 232301
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MI WILL
MAINTAIN CEILINGS BELOW 12K FT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE SFC
TROUGH NOW PUSHING INTO LAKE MI WILL WEAKEN AS IT WORKS INTO LOWER
MI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GREATLY DIMINISH
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN INCREASE IN LOWER BASED CLOUDS /MAINLY
IN THE 2500 TO 5000 FT RANGE/ ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO
THE TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND PERSIST OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231952
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1240 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE MBS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR SKY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD MVFR BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...OR AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR...UNTIL
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARD NOON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231952
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A PLEASANT FALL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR SE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL EVENING SLIDE AFTER SUNSET BUT THEN STABILIZE
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN FOR MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SUPPORT MODEL ANALYSIS
FIELDS THAT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS AND
FILAMENTS OF DEFORMATION WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE WELL RESOLVED IN THE
500 MB VORTICITY FIELD AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
PEDESTRIAN UPPER JET CIRCULATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS OVER THE MIDWEST DEPICTED IN
RADAR MOSAICS IS A COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...THE BULK OF WHICH REMAINS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY LIGHT RAIN WITH MID LEVEL ORIGINS
WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE DRY FORECAST BUT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO
STOP THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND...WILL HELP BUOY MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WITHIN PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, THE TROUGH IS
ANCHORED ON THE NORTHERN END BY A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A 150+KT JET MAX FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO FRACTURE INTO TWO SEPARATE
WAVES WITH SE MICHIGAN POISED TO BE POSITIONED SAFELY BETWEEN
THEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN MEAGER THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SPILL- OVER OF REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FOR SATURDAY.
FAVORED THE 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH OFFERS A SLOWER INTRUSION OF CLOUDS
AND A VIRGA TYPE SCENARIO THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE GROUND.

MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THIS WAVE DEPARTS AND A MUCH STRONGER SHEAR MAX ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF UPSTREAM.
THE RESULTANT RAMP UP OF 925-850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP
REINFORCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATE
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE 900MB LEVEL FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SEEMS ADEQUATE TO WARRANT A
CONSIDERABLY MORE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THE
HEALTHY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT, HOWEVER, TO BUMP
H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C AND SURFACE TEMPS UP TO 60-65 EVEN IN A POORLY
MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT GUSTS
OF 20 MPH. SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE A POOR BET AT
THE MOMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. NONETHELESS, THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RATHER POTENT
DYNAMICS WARRANTS MONITORING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OFFSHORE ATTM. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL
GET UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SENDING DEWPOINTS DOWN ABOUT 20
DEGREES FROM THEIR DAYTIME PEAK VALUES AND HELPING OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE NEAR 40 DEGREES...AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

EXPECTING A PLEASANT FALL DAY SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS...THOUGH COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SATURDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM NEAR-FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RATHER MILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 12-14C ADVERTISED. GLOBAL MODELS AND GEFS MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO
A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOWING IT ASSUMING A
NEGATIVE TILT NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE MI. STILL TARGETING TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP...WITH A COOL-DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRANQUIL WIND REGIME WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE AREA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR-GALES LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE HURON ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A GUSTY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1240 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE MBS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR SKY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD MVFR BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...OR AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR...UNTIL
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARD NOON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231640
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE MBS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR SKY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD MVFR BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...OR AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR...UNTIL
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARD NOON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1024 MB SURFACE HIGH TUCKED BENEATH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEFINE CONDITIONS LOCALLY TODAY.  SOME PESKY POCKETS OF
SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AN EXISTING DEEP DRY LAYER AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THEN ENSURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INTEGRATING ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING
THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BOTH THE ADDED INSOLATION AND GENERAL INCREASE IN THICKNESSES VIA
RISING HEIGHTS.  THIS WILL CENTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.

SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO A STRONG WAVE/CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
PINCH INTO THE EXISTING RIDGING...SHEARING ACROSS SE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH THE BETTER FORCING TIED TO THE PARENT
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK CVA AS THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS EJECTS THROUGH.  A LIMITED
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A STOUT DRY
LAYER HELD IN PLACE BY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING.  THIS POINTS TO
SIMPLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES EMERGING VERY LATE WITHIN AN EXPANDING FIELD OF VIRGA.
MODEL EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF A DEFINED POP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.  LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH JUST VIRGA OR
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS H850 TEMPS RISE BACK UP
NEAR 7C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

BIGGER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE UPPER ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
ENERGY ACROSS ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING HAS SPED
UP A LITTLE. CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLY DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE (12-18Z
PER GFS/NAM)...HOWEVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE SHOWN A
TIMING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS
DRY GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE TIMING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MEAN THAT MAX TEMPS ARE
REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY (STILL FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S)...AND IF
OTHER MODELS COME AROUND TO THE EURO SOLUTION...TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD BE QUITE HEALTHY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LAPSE
RATES...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN A CORE OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. SURFACE GUSTS THEREFORE LOOK TO
ACHIEVE 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
CONTINUING THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S HOWEVER ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE STILL DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS ON TUESDAY (HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AT 144 HOURS)...AND THE 12Z EURO BRINGING IT
ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY...KEEPING CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE...BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
SURFACE...AND THESE GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231640
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE MBS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CLEAR SKY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND THEN A SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARD MVFR BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...OR AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF VIRGA ON RADAR...UNTIL
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARD NOON FRIDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1024 MB SURFACE HIGH TUCKED BENEATH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEFINE CONDITIONS LOCALLY TODAY.  SOME PESKY POCKETS OF
SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AN EXISTING DEEP DRY LAYER AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THEN ENSURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INTEGRATING ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING
THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BOTH THE ADDED INSOLATION AND GENERAL INCREASE IN THICKNESSES VIA
RISING HEIGHTS.  THIS WILL CENTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.

SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO A STRONG WAVE/CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
PINCH INTO THE EXISTING RIDGING...SHEARING ACROSS SE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH THE BETTER FORCING TIED TO THE PARENT
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK CVA AS THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS EJECTS THROUGH.  A LIMITED
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A STOUT DRY
LAYER HELD IN PLACE BY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING.  THIS POINTS TO
SIMPLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES EMERGING VERY LATE WITHIN AN EXPANDING FIELD OF VIRGA.
MODEL EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF A DEFINED POP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.  LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH JUST VIRGA OR
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS H850 TEMPS RISE BACK UP
NEAR 7C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

BIGGER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE UPPER ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
ENERGY ACROSS ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING HAS SPED
UP A LITTLE. CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLY DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE (12-18Z
PER GFS/NAM)...HOWEVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE SHOWN A
TIMING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS
DRY GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE TIMING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MEAN THAT MAX TEMPS ARE
REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY (STILL FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S)...AND IF
OTHER MODELS COME AROUND TO THE EURO SOLUTION...TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD BE QUITE HEALTHY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LAPSE
RATES...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN A CORE OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. SURFACE GUSTS THEREFORE LOOK TO
ACHIEVE 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
CONTINUING THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S HOWEVER ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE STILL DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS ON TUESDAY (HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AT 144 HOURS)...AND THE 12Z EURO BRINGING IT
ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY...KEEPING CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE...BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
SURFACE...AND THESE GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





000
FXUS63 KDTX 231039
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
639 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A STRETCH OF FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.  EXISTING SHALLOW FOG AT MBS/FNT
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.  OTHERWISE
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TODAY...WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUD ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.  A LIGHT/WEST WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

1024 MB SURFACE HIGH TUCKED BENEATH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEFINE CONDITIONS LOCALLY TODAY.  SOME PESKY POCKETS OF
SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AN EXISTING DEEP DRY LAYER AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THEN ENSURING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INTEGRATING ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING
THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR
BOTH THE ADDED INSOLATION AND GENERAL INCREASE IN THICKNESSES VIA
RISING HEIGHTS.  THIS WILL CENTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S AREAWIDE.

SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED TO A STRONG WAVE/CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
PINCH INTO THE EXISTING RIDGING...SHEARING ACROSS SE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  WITH THE BETTER FORCING TIED TO THE PARENT
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK CVA AS THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS EJECTS THROUGH.  A LIMITED
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE WORKING AGAINST A STOUT DRY
LAYER HELD IN PLACE BY PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING.  THIS POINTS TO
SIMPLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES EMERGING VERY LATE WITHIN AN EXPANDING FIELD OF VIRGA.
MODEL EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF A DEFINED POP
MENTION AT THIS TIME.  LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH JUST VIRGA OR
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO. GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS H850 TEMPS RISE BACK UP
NEAR 7C...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

BIGGER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE UPPER ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
ENERGY ACROSS ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING HAS SPED
UP A LITTLE. CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLY DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE (12-18Z
PER GFS/NAM)...HOWEVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE SHOWN A
TIMING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS
DRY GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE TIMING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. AN EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MEAN THAT MAX TEMPS ARE
REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY (STILL FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S)...AND IF
OTHER MODELS COME AROUND TO THE EURO SOLUTION...TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD BE QUITE HEALTHY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LAPSE
RATES...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN A CORE OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. SURFACE GUSTS THEREFORE LOOK TO
ACHIEVE 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
CONTINUING THE DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER OVER THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 50S HOWEVER ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE STILL DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE 00Z GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS ON TUESDAY (HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AT 144 HOURS)...AND THE 12Z EURO BRINGING IT
ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TODAY...KEEPING CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE...BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR SPILLING OVER THE WARMER
LAKE WATERS WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
SURFACE...AND THESE GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS WE DRAW CLOSER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





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