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000
FXUS63 KDVN 242315
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADD DRIZZLE FOR AREAS IN THE NORTH 1/2
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THIS IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AT THIS TIME. ALSO...DENSE FOG APPEARS QUITE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I HAVE INCREASED FOG IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING AS THINGS
DEVELOP.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE NARROWED DOWN
TO A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM SE MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA TO FAR NORTHERN MO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS WAS
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN IA TO N
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOWER TO MID 50S WERE MORE
COMMON TO THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE DEEPER MIXING AND
SUNSHINE. THE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOLDING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW UNDER INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WEST AND NW...CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING STRATUS
FIELD AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW IL BY LATE EVENING. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB...MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ASSIST THE FOG PROCESS. A
DEVELOPING DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH...TIMED WITH PEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET AND THEN HOW LONG BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADS
TO DISSIPATION SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING NW FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OUT WEST...AND ADVANCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS...
WILL LEAD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. UNDER THIS THERMAL
RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NEB AND SD...WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING
SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MILD AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT BRINGS PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS /NEAR NORMAL/.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER REGION WITH DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT
WIND...DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTIVE OF STAYING NEAR
TO JUST BELOW COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AM WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND
PLAINS LOW TO RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ MPH.
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 75 FAR SOUTH... BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
TOO MILD GIVEN NON-FAVORABLE WARMING SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. EVEN IF LOWER WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I 80 WITH
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE STILL SOME VARIANCES ON STRENGTH OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE PLAINS... THE SIGNAL
OVERALL INCREASING FOR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
EASTERN HALF OF CWA BUT FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE
WAVE IN ENTRANCE REGION... UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF CWA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LAST OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING DEEP MIXING
ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FUELING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EAST AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER BUT ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED POPS WERE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SAME MOIST AIR MASS THAT PRODUCE LAST NIGHTS DENSE FOG EVENT
IS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO UNDER
5 KTS...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM...WITH VERY LOW IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AGAIN AT
ALL SITES IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z/25. AFTER 14Z...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD USHER
IN DRY AIR...ENDING THIS PERIOD OF PERSISTENT VLIFR/IFR/MVFR
WEATHER WE HAVE DEALT WITH THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 242252
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
552 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADD DRIZZLE FOR AREAS IN THE NORTH 1/2
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THIS IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AT THIS TIME. ALSO...DENSE FOG APPEARS QUITE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I HAVE INCREASED FOG IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING AS THINGS
DEVELOP.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE NARROWED DOWN
TO A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM SE MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA TO FAR NORTHERN MO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS WAS
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN IA TO N
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOWER TO MID 50S WERE MORE
COMMON TO THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE DEEPER MIXING AND
SUNSHINE. THE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOLDING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW UNDER INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WEST AND NW...CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING STRATUS
FIELD AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW IL BY LATE EVENING. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB...MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ASSIST THE FOG PROCESS. A
DEVELOPING DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH...TIMED WITH PEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET AND THEN HOW LONG BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADS
TO DISSIPATION SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING NW FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OUT WEST...AND ADVANCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS...
WILL LEAD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. UNDER THIS THERMAL
RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NEB AND SD...WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING
SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MILD AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT BRINGS PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS /NEAR NORMAL/.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER REGION WITH DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT
WIND...DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTIVE OF STAYING NEAR
TO JUST BELOW COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AM WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND
PLAINS LOW TO RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ MPH.
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 75 FAR SOUTH... BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
TOO MILD GIVEN NON-FAVORABLE WARMING SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. EVEN IF LOWER WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I 80 WITH
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE STILL SOME VARIANCES ON STRENGTH OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE PLAINS... THE SIGNAL
OVERALL INCREASING FOR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
EASTERN HALF OF CWA BUT FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE
WAVE IN ENTRANCE REGION... UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF CWA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LAST OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING DEEP MIXING
ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FUELING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EAST AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER BUT ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED POPS WERE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFTER SUNSET. THE LATEST FORECASTS HAVE A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES...WITH LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR LIKELY AT
ESPECIALLY DBQ AND MLI...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL
THAT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT CID AND BRL. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO AT LEAST MVFR IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 242035
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE NARROWED DOWN
TO A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM SE MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA TO FAR NORTHERN MO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS WAS
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN IA TO N
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOWER TO MID 50S WERE MORE
COMMON TO THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE DEEPER MIXING AND
SUNSHINE. THE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOLDING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW UNDER INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WEST AND NW...CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING STRATUS
FIELD AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW IL BY LATE EVENING. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB...MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ASSIST THE FOG PROCESS. A
DEVELOPING DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH...TIMED WITH PEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET AND THEN HOW LONG BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADS
TO DISSIPATION SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING NW FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OUT WEST...AND ADVANCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS...
WILL LEAD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. UNDER THIS THERMAL
RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NEB AND SD...WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING
SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MILD AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT BRINGS PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS /NEAR NORMAL/.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER REGION WITH DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT
WIND...DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTIVE OF STAYING NEAR
TO JUST BELOW COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AM WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND
PLAINS LOW TO RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ MPH.
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 75 FAR SOUTH... BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
TOO MILD GIVEN NON-FAVORABLE WARMING SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. EVEN IF LOWER WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I 80 WITH
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE STILL SOME VARIANCES ON STRENGTH OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE PLAINS... THE SIGNAL
OVERALL INCREASING FOR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
EASTERN HALF OF CWA BUT FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE
WAVE IN ENTRANCE REGION... UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF CWA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LAST OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING DEEP MIXING
ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FUELING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EAST AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER BUT ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED POPS WERE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFTER SUNSET. THE LATEST FORECASTS HAVE A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES...WITH LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR LIKELY AT
ESPECIALLY DBQ AND MLI...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL
THAT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT CID AND BRL. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO AT LEAST MVFR IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 241736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE
HOLE OPENING IN THE STRATUS AND FOG AROUND THE QUAD CITIES OVER
THE PAST HOUR. ELSEWHERE...LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO ABOVE 1 MILE AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
KCID AND KEOK. SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORT CONTINUED GRADUAL CLEARING WITH PERHAPS THE FAR
WEST AND NW POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
RECOVER AFTER THE SLOW START THIS MORNING...BUT DUE TO THE
DELAYED WARMING...ARE NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED THE ALREADY ADJUSTED
HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG LOOKS LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM WESTERN IA LEADS TO DIMINISHING
WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFTER SUNSET. THE LATEST FORECASTS HAVE A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES...WITH LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR LIKELY AT
ESPECIALLY DBQ AND MLI...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL
THAT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT CID AND BRL. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO AT LEAST MVFR IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 241404
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
904 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CI STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NOT HELPING WITH THE
FOG TRENDS THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE DENSE FOG IS EXPANDING
EASTWARD IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE SATURATED
LAYER BELOW 925 MB ON THE DVN SOUNDING. HAVE UPDATED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND HAVE EXTENDED IT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A QUICK UPDATE. ON FIRST
LOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...TO SOME EXTENT...COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER UPDATES FOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO LIFR FOG HAVING BIG IMPACT ON ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...IT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z. WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THE BRL SITE SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING...MLI TO MVFR BY 17-18Z...BUT CID AND DBQ AT SOME
RISK OF EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER A TEMPORARY
AFTERNOON RISE TO MVFR...THE MLI...CID...AND DBQ SITES COULD SINK
BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH FOG AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80. BANKING ON SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND PASSING SFC TROF TO HELP MIX OUT WHAT EVER FOG OR
LOW CIGS THAT REFORM OR PERSIST DURING THE EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC AS WELL IF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS MORE ALOFT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.    ..12..


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 241404
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
904 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CI STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NOT HELPING WITH THE
FOG TRENDS THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE DENSE FOG IS EXPANDING
EASTWARD IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE SATURATED
LAYER BELOW 925 MB ON THE DVN SOUNDING. HAVE UPDATED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND HAVE EXTENDED IT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A QUICK UPDATE. ON FIRST
LOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...TO SOME EXTENT...COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER UPDATES FOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO LIFR FOG HAVING BIG IMPACT ON ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...IT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z. WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THE BRL SITE SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING...MLI TO MVFR BY 17-18Z...BUT CID AND DBQ AT SOME
RISK OF EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER A TEMPORARY
AFTERNOON RISE TO MVFR...THE MLI...CID...AND DBQ SITES COULD SINK
BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH FOG AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80. BANKING ON SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND PASSING SFC TROF TO HELP MIX OUT WHAT EVER FOG OR
LOW CIGS THAT REFORM OR PERSIST DURING THE EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC AS WELL IF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS MORE ALOFT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.    ..12..


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 241328
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
828 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO LIFR FOG HAVING BIG IMPACT ON ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...IT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z. WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THE BRL SITE SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING...MLI TO MVFR BY 17-18Z...BUT CID AND DBQ AT SOME
RISK OF EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER A TEMPORARY
AFTERNOON RISE TO MVFR...THE MLI...CID...AND DBQ SITES COULD SINK
BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH FOG AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80. BANKING ON SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND PASSING SFC TROF TO HELP MIX OUT WHAT EVER FOG OR
LOW CIGS THAT REFORM OR PERSIST DURING THE EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC AS WELL IF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS MORE ALOFT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 240845
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW IFR CIG EVENT WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD...AND
LAST WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THE
MINIMUM FOG/CIGS WILL LIFT...MAYBE AS LATE AS 17Z FRIDAY...BUT
WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MINIMUMS/ 1/4SM FG VV001 AFTER
15Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FOG...SOME MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS PLAYS
OUT SINCE MODELS EITHER DON`T HAVE IT AT ALL OR ARE HAMMERING THE
AREA WITH IFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR PERIOD NOW. SHOULD STATUS
LINGER...ANOTHER FOG EVENT WITH STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE IS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN IOWA...I HAVE INTRODUCED ANOTHER
PERIOD OF IFR WEATHER TO THE DBQ TAF AFTER 00Z/25.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 240439
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AS IF OFTEN THE CASE...THE FOG DEVELOPED AT DENSE LEVELS VERSUS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO THEM. THUS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
STARTED NOW RATHER THAN WAITING UNTIL 1 AM. THIS DENSE FOG WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND EAST OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSIDERED.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJEF TO
KDLH WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KRST TO KFNB. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AFTER SUNSET...CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IOWA. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE SKIES CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
UPON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPS...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. IF THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUGGESTION FROM MODELS OF PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. COOL FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT SWEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT AND THUS CLEARING SKIES. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50) TO WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH MAXES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (SOUTHERN CWA). THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING E/SE WINDS 10-20+ MPH
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA DURING SUNDAY PM... BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN SUNDAY PM ATTM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA WITH CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 40-45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND RATHER MILD IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCES ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF ENERGY WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST CHANGES OVER PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SHIFTING MAIN TROUGH 500-700 MILES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO GFS RUNS PAST
FEW DAYS. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT TOO IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES ESPECIALLY IN STRENGTH.
MONDAY MAY BE WITHOUT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN AND MILD WITH CWA IN
CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MANLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN LOOK TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGH... WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH
IMPACTS TO TRACK/STRENGTH OF ENERGY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE...INDICATION
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FAVORING DRIER SIDE WITH TYPICAL FALL
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW IFR CIG EVENT WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD...AND
LAST WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THE
MINIMUM FOG/CIGS WILL LIFT...MAYBE AS LATE AS 17Z FRIDAY...BUT
WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MINIMUMS/ 1/4SM FG VV001 AFTER
15Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FOG...SOME MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS PLAYS
OUT SINCE MODELS EITHER DON`T HAVE IT AT ALL OR ARE HAMMERING THE
AREA WITH IFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR PERIOD NOW. SHOULD STATUS
LINGER...ANOTHER FOG EVENT WITH STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE IS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN IOWA...I HAVE INTRODUCED ANOTHER
PERIOD OF IFR WEATHER TO THE DBQ TAF AFTER 00Z/25.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 240106
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
806 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AS IF OFTEN THE CASE...THE FOG DEVELOPED AT DENSE LEVELS VERSUS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO THEM. THUS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
STARTED NOW RATHER THAN WAITING UNTIL 1 AM. THIS DENSE FOG WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND EAST OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSIDERED.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJEF TO
KDLH WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KRST TO KFNB. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AFTER SUNSET...CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IOWA. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE SKIES CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
UPON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPS...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. IF THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUGGESTION FROM MODELS OF PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. COOL FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT SWEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT AND THUS CLEARING SKIES. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50) TO WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH MAXES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (SOUTHERN CWA). THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING E/SE WINDS 10-20+ MPH
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA DURING SUNDAY PM... BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN SUNDAY PM ATTM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA WITH CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 40-45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND RATHER MILD IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCES ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF ENERGY WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST CHANGES OVER PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SHIFTING MAIN TROUGH 500-700 MILES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO GFS RUNS PAST
FEW DAYS. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT TOO IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES ESPECIALLY IN STRENGTH.
MONDAY MAY BE WITHOUT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN AND MILD WITH CWA IN
CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MANLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN LOOK TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGH... WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH
IMPACTS TO TRACK/STRENGTH OF ENERGY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE...INDICATION
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FAVORING DRIER SIDE WITH TYPICAL FALL
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS BETWEEN 1000 FT AND 3000 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY
IMPACTING CID THROUGH MID EVENING. AS THIS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE...DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN IOWA...THIS FOG...WITH
VERY LOW IFR WILL SPREAD OVER AT LEAST EASTERN IOWA...AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO A STRATUS MVFR CLOUD CIG FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW CLEARING...AS DOES OUR PUBLIC
FORECAST. HOWEVER...I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY BE TRAPPED IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR HENDERSON-JO
     DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 232317
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
617 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJEF TO
KDLH WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KRST TO KFNB. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AFTER SUNSET...CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IOWA. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE SKIES CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
UPON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPS...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. IF THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUGGESTION FROM MODELS OF PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. COOL FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT SWEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT AND THUS CLEARING SKIES. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50) TO WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH MAXES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (SOUTHERN CWA). THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING E/SE WINDS 10-20+ MPH
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA DURING SUNDAY PM... BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN SUNDAY PM ATTM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA WITH CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 40-45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND RATHER MILD IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCES ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF ENERGY WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST CHANGES OVER PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SHIFTING MAIN TROUGH 500-700 MILES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO GFS RUNS PAST
FEW DAYS. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT TOO IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES ESPECIALLY IN STRENGTH.
MONDAY MAY BE WITHOUT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN AND MILD WITH CWA IN
CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MANLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN LOOK TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGH... WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH
IMPACTS TO TRACK/STRENGTH OF ENERGY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE...INDICATION
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FAVORING DRIER SIDE WITH TYPICAL FALL
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS BETWEEN 1000 FT AND 3000 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY
IMPACTING CID THROUGH MID EVENING. AS THIS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE...DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN IOWA...THIS FOG...WITH
VERY LOW IFR WILL SPREAD OVER AT LEAST EASTERN IOWA...AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO A STRATUS MVFR CLOUD CIG FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW CLEARING...AS DOES OUR PUBLIC
FORECAST. HOWEVER...I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY BE TRAPPED IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR HENDERSON-
     JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 232034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJEF TO
KDLH WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KRST TO KFNB. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AFTER SUNSET...CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IOWA. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE SKIES CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
UPON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPS...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. IF THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUGGESTION FROM MODELS OF PSUEDO WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. COOL FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT SWEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT AND THUS CLEARING SKIES. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50) TO WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH MAXES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (SOUTHERN CWA). THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING E/SE WINDS 10-20+ MPH
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA DURING SUNDAY PM... BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN SUNDAY PM ATTM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA WITH CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 40-45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND RATHER MILD IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCES ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF ENERGY WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST CHANGES OVER PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SHIFTING MAIN TROUGH 500-700 MILES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO GFS RUNS PAST
FEW DAYS. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT TOO IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES ESPECIALLY IN STRENGTH.
MONDAY MAY BE WITHOUT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN AND MILD WITH CWA IN
CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MANLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN LOOK TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGH... WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH
IMPACTS TO TRACK/STRENGTH OF ENERGY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE...INDICATION
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FAVORING DRIER SIDE WITH TYPICAL FALL
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/24 WITH VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. AFT 00Z/24...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
THUS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR TO IFR AFT 06Z/24 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR HENDERSON-
     JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231740
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...THEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE DRY AIR IS STILL
WINNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI
WHICH MAY ALLOW NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING TO BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH RAINFALL JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/24 WITH VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. AFT 00Z/24...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
THUS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR TO IFR AFT 06Z/24 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231740
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...THEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE DRY AIR IS STILL
WINNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI
WHICH MAY ALLOW NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING TO BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH RAINFALL JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/24 WITH VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. AFT 00Z/24...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
THUS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR TO IFR AFT 06Z/24 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231527
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1027 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE DRY AIR IS STILL
WINNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI
WHICH MAY ALLOW NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING TO BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH RAINFALL JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOG FAVORED TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AND
HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. LOWERED KCID/KDBQ TO 1SM VSBY
OVERNIGHT...2SM AT KMLI/KBRL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231244
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
744 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOG FAVORED TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AND
HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. LOWERED KCID/KDBQ TO 1SM VSBY
OVERNIGHT...2SM AT KMLI/KBRL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 230828
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL LAST THROUGH VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID CLOUDS AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
PROVIDE A MAINLY VFR EVENT...WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 6 MILES OR BETTER THROUGH THE EVENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINS WILL BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WILL
SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RAIN ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 230422
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LLJ
RAN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA THAT WAS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA SLOWLY EVAPORATING
AS THEY MOVE EAST BUT NEW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
EAST GREAT LAKES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FURTHER SLOWING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN RAIN
MAY ONLY BE GETTING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE THREAT OF RAIN
WILL ONLY BE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITH ABOUT 3-4
HOURS OF THAT TIME WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

AS SUCH...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA AND AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE DRY BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LINGER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT BEST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AREAS EAST OF THERE MAY SEE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA AROUND
00Z OR 7PM IF NOT EARLIER AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES.
DESPITE DECREASE IN CLOUDS... LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT BIG DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH LOWS MOST PLACES
ACTUALLY WARMER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 42-49F.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST AS MODELS NOW
CONVERGING ON SCENARIO OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO
AID IN TRANSIENT BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FAVORABLE
FOR DRIZZLE AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME VERY LIGHT NON-MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF PCPN. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE SKY COVER... WHICH
MAY NEED FURTHER RAISING... AND TWEAK HIGHS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CLOUDS TO ARRIVE SOONER. MAY NEED TO
FURTHER TWEAK HIGHS DOWN AS MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST SLOWING OF WARM
FRONT AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE GENERAL RANGE OF HIGHS
FROM MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH WARMEST FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE TRYING
TO PUSH FRONT THROUGH AND BRING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT EXITING
BY LATE EVENING WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOLEST NORTHWEST CWA (MID 40S) TO WARMEST SOUTHEAST
CWA (L50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS
AS WELL AS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANY CHANGE TO NICE WEEKEND BEING
ADVERTISED... BUT IT DOES MEAN TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WHILE COOLER IT WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO EVEN
A BIT ABOVE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH JUST EXITING SUNDAY MORNING... BUT SHOULD
SEE 10-20 MPH DURING AFTERNOON BUT DIRECTION FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH
NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A COUPLE DEGS BUT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7-9C. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE
CWA WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS MODELS OFFER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE WITH STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER AND DEEPER AND WOULD SUGGEST AFTER SOME RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY AND QUITE MILD WARM SECTOR
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE... WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH CLOSING
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GEM AND GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH AND WEAKER WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND SUPPORTIVE
OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MAIN WINDOW OF RAIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS THEN COOLER/DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BLENDED APPROACH WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHERN
CWA AND ENTIRE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS MILD MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TO L70S THEN TRENDING COOLER REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL LAST THROUGH VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID CLOUDS AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
PROVIDE A MAINLY VFR EVENT...WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 6 MILES OR BETTER THROUGH THE EVENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINS WILL BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WILL
SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RAIN ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 222314
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LLJ
RAN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA THAT WAS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA SLOWLY EVAPORATING
AS THEY MOVE EAST BUT NEW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
EAST GREAT LAKES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FURTHER SLOWING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN RAIN
MAY ONLY BE GETTING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE THREAT OF RAIN
WILL ONLY BE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITH ABOUT 3-4
HOURS OF THAT TIME WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

AS SUCH...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA AND AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE DRY BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LINGER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT BEST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AREAS EAST OF THERE MAY SEE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA AROUND
00Z OR 7PM IF NOT EARLIER AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES.
DESPITE DECREASE IN CLOUDS... LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT BIG DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH LOWS MOST PLACES
ACTUALLY WARMER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 42-49F.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST AS MODELS NOW
CONVERGING ON SCENARIO OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO
AID IN TRANSIENT BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FAVORABLE
FOR DRIZZLE AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME VERY LIGHT NON-MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF PCPN. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE SKY COVER... WHICH
MAY NEED FURTHER RAISING... AND TWEAK HIGHS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CLOUDS TO ARRIVE SOONER. MAY NEED TO
FURTHER TWEAK HIGHS DOWN AS MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST SLOWING OF WARM
FRONT AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE GENERAL RANGE OF HIGHS
FROM MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH WARMEST FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE TRYING
TO PUSH FRONT THROUGH AND BRING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT EXITING
BY LATE EVENING WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOLEST NORTHWEST CWA (MID 40S) TO WARMEST SOUTHEAST
CWA (L50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS
AS WELL AS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANY CHANGE TO NICE WEEKEND BEING
ADVERTISED... BUT IT DOES MEAN TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WHILE COOLER IT WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO EVEN
A BIT ABOVE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH JUST EXITING SUNDAY MORNING... BUT SHOULD
SEE 10-20 MPH DURING AFTERNOON BUT DIRECTION FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH
NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A COUPLE DEGS BUT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7-9C. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE
CWA WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS MODELS OFFER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE WITH STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER AND DEEPER AND WOULD SUGGEST AFTER SOME RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY AND QUITE MILD WARM SECTOR
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE... WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH CLOSING
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GEM AND GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH AND WEAKER WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND SUPPORTIVE
OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MAIN WINDOW OF RAIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS THEN COOLER/DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BLENDED APPROACH WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHERN
CWA AND ENTIRE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS MILD MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TO L70S THEN TRENDING COOLER REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL LAST THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
PROVIDE A MAINLY VFR EVENT...WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 6 MILES OR BETTER THROUGH THE EVENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINS WILL BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WILL
SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RAIN ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 222314
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LLJ
RAN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA THAT WAS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA SLOWLY EVAPORATING
AS THEY MOVE EAST BUT NEW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
EAST GREAT LAKES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FURTHER SLOWING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN RAIN
MAY ONLY BE GETTING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE THREAT OF RAIN
WILL ONLY BE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITH ABOUT 3-4
HOURS OF THAT TIME WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

AS SUCH...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA AND AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE DRY BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LINGER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT BEST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AREAS EAST OF THERE MAY SEE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA AROUND
00Z OR 7PM IF NOT EARLIER AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES.
DESPITE DECREASE IN CLOUDS... LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT BIG DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH LOWS MOST PLACES
ACTUALLY WARMER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 42-49F.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST AS MODELS NOW
CONVERGING ON SCENARIO OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO
AID IN TRANSIENT BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FAVORABLE
FOR DRIZZLE AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME VERY LIGHT NON-MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF PCPN. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE SKY COVER... WHICH
MAY NEED FURTHER RAISING... AND TWEAK HIGHS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CLOUDS TO ARRIVE SOONER. MAY NEED TO
FURTHER TWEAK HIGHS DOWN AS MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST SLOWING OF WARM
FRONT AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE GENERAL RANGE OF HIGHS
FROM MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH WARMEST FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE TRYING
TO PUSH FRONT THROUGH AND BRING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT EXITING
BY LATE EVENING WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOLEST NORTHWEST CWA (MID 40S) TO WARMEST SOUTHEAST
CWA (L50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS
AS WELL AS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANY CHANGE TO NICE WEEKEND BEING
ADVERTISED... BUT IT DOES MEAN TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WHILE COOLER IT WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO EVEN
A BIT ABOVE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH JUST EXITING SUNDAY MORNING... BUT SHOULD
SEE 10-20 MPH DURING AFTERNOON BUT DIRECTION FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH
NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A COUPLE DEGS BUT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7-9C. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE
CWA WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS MODELS OFFER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE WITH STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER AND DEEPER AND WOULD SUGGEST AFTER SOME RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY AND QUITE MILD WARM SECTOR
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE... WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH CLOSING
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GEM AND GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH AND WEAKER WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND SUPPORTIVE
OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MAIN WINDOW OF RAIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS THEN COOLER/DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BLENDED APPROACH WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHERN
CWA AND ENTIRE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS MILD MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TO L70S THEN TRENDING COOLER REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL LAST THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL
PROVIDE A MAINLY VFR EVENT...WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 6 MILES OR BETTER THROUGH THE EVENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINS WILL BE BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WILL
SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE RAIN ENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 222028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LLJ
RAN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA THAT WAS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA SLOWLY EVAPORATING
AS THEY MOVE EAST BUT NEW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
EAST GREAT LAKES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FURTHER SLOWING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN RAIN
MAY ONLY BE GETTING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE THREAT OF RAIN
WILL ONLY BE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITH ABOUT 3-4
HOURS OF THAT TIME WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

AS SUCH...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA AND AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE DRY BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LINGER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT BEST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AREAS EAST OF THERE MAY SEE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA AROUND
00Z OR 7PM IF NOT EARLIER AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES.
DESPITE DECREASE IN CLOUDS... LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT BIG DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH LOWS MOST PLACES
ACTUALLY WARMER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 42-49F.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST AS MODELS NOW
CONVERGING ON SCENARIO OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO
AID IN TRANSIENT BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FAVORABLE
FOR DRIZZLE AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME VERY LIGHT NON-MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF PCPN. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE SKY COVER... WHICH
MAY NEED FURTHER RAISING... AND TWEAK HIGHS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CLOUDS TO ARRIVE SOONER. MAY NEED TO
FURTHER TWEAK HIGHS DOWN AS MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST SLOWING OF WARM
FRONT AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE GENERAL RANGE OF HIGHS
FROM MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH WARMEST FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE TRYING
TO PUSH FRONT THROUGH AND BRING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT EXITING
BY LATE EVENING WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOLEST NORTHWEST CWA (MID 40S) TO WARMEST SOUTHEAST
CWA (L50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS
AS WELL AS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANY CHANGE TO NICE WEEKEND BEING
ADVERTISED... BUT IT DOES MEAN TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WHILE COOLER IT WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO EVEN
A BIT ABOVE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH JUST EXITING SUNDAY MORNING... BUT SHOULD
SEE 10-20 MPH DURING AFTERNOON BUT DIRECTION FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH
NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A COUPLE DEGS BUT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7-9C. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE
CWA WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS MODELS OFFER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE WITH STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER AND DEEPER AND WOULD SUGGEST AFTER SOME RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY AND QUITE MILD WARM SECTOR
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE... WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH CLOSING
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GEM AND GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH AND WEAKER WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND SUPPORTIVE
OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MAIN WINDOW OF RAIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS THEN COOLER/DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BLENDED APPROACH WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHERN
CWA AND ENTIRE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS MILD MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TO L70S THEN TRENDING COOLER REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 222028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LLJ
RAN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA THAT WAS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA SLOWLY EVAPORATING
AS THEY MOVE EAST BUT NEW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
EAST GREAT LAKES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FURTHER SLOWING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN RAIN
MAY ONLY BE GETTING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE THREAT OF RAIN
WILL ONLY BE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITH ABOUT 3-4
HOURS OF THAT TIME WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

AS SUCH...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA AND AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE DRY BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LINGER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT BEST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AREAS EAST OF THERE MAY SEE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA AROUND
00Z OR 7PM IF NOT EARLIER AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES.
DESPITE DECREASE IN CLOUDS... LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT BIG DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH LOWS MOST PLACES
ACTUALLY WARMER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 42-49F.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST AS MODELS NOW
CONVERGING ON SCENARIO OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO
AID IN TRANSIENT BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FAVORABLE
FOR DRIZZLE AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME VERY LIGHT NON-MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF PCPN. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE SKY COVER... WHICH
MAY NEED FURTHER RAISING... AND TWEAK HIGHS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CLOUDS TO ARRIVE SOONER. MAY NEED TO
FURTHER TWEAK HIGHS DOWN AS MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST SLOWING OF WARM
FRONT AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE GENERAL RANGE OF HIGHS
FROM MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH WARMEST FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE TRYING
TO PUSH FRONT THROUGH AND BRING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT EXITING
BY LATE EVENING WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOLEST NORTHWEST CWA (MID 40S) TO WARMEST SOUTHEAST
CWA (L50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS
AS WELL AS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANY CHANGE TO NICE WEEKEND BEING
ADVERTISED... BUT IT DOES MEAN TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WHILE COOLER IT WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO EVEN
A BIT ABOVE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH JUST EXITING SUNDAY MORNING... BUT SHOULD
SEE 10-20 MPH DURING AFTERNOON BUT DIRECTION FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH
NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A COUPLE DEGS BUT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7-9C. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE
CWA WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS MODELS OFFER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE WITH STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER AND DEEPER AND WOULD SUGGEST AFTER SOME RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY AND QUITE MILD WARM SECTOR
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE... WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH CLOSING
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GEM AND GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH AND WEAKER WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND SUPPORTIVE
OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MAIN WINDOW OF RAIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS THEN COOLER/DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BLENDED APPROACH WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHERN
CWA AND ENTIRE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS MILD MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TO L70S THEN TRENDING COOLER REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 221736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE DRY AIR IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS PREVENTING
THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE WIDTH OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
SHRINKING WITH THE EASTERN EDGE SLOWLY EVAPORATING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THUS FULL SUN IS EXPECTED FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 221736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE DRY AIR IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS PREVENTING
THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE WIDTH OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
SHRINKING WITH THE EASTERN EDGE SLOWLY EVAPORATING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THUS FULL SUN IS EXPECTED FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 221158
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
658 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST BREEZE TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TIS EVENING.
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KCID AS EARLY AS 08Z THURSDAY...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220812
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WELL AFTER 06Z/23...A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH EASTERN IOWA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WELL AFTER 06Z/23...A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH EASTERN IOWA.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WELL AFTER 06Z/23...A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH EASTERN IOWA.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








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