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000
FXUS63 KDVN 012346
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
646 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN TX. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WAS ORGANIZING IN CO WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST MO AND INTO KY. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH ONLY 50S FROM MN TO MI.
A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/HIGHER
PWAT`S WERE LOCATED. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
NW CWA. HOWEVER...IN OUR SE CWA MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND VEERS FROM EASTERN
KS TO CENTRAL IL. THIS OCCURRING AS MAIN ENERGY STARTS PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. IN OUR NW CWA WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT THE MAIN ISSUE THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS/AREAS
OF FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL SPREAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE MIDWEST...WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AS PWAT`S INCREASE TO OVER 1.70 INCHES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT IF A SQUALL LINE CAN
ORGANIZE. BUT AGAIN THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING.
AS OF NOW SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN OUR SE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF POTENTIAL WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. CONCUR WITH SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK THAT AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF INSOLATION AND RESULTING POCKETS
OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DECENT SPEED SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AS THE MAIN ISSUE. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS COULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ANOTHER NOTCH INTO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THURSDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RATHER ROBUST
WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES
FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 50S. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND
800MB...WITH A FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. HOWEVER...WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE NOT SUPPORTING A SLAM DUNK WIND
ADVISORY SITUATION. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR LATER SHIFTS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...AND HAVE KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER...MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
SOME MIXING EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE STRONG CAA. THE WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FROST...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT MOST LOCATIONS...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF AMBIENT TEMPS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
FAVORING A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY LOWER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT DBQ/CID AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY AT MLI/BRL TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 012346
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
646 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN TX. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WAS ORGANIZING IN CO WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST MO AND INTO KY. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH ONLY 50S FROM MN TO MI.
A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/HIGHER
PWAT`S WERE LOCATED. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
NW CWA. HOWEVER...IN OUR SE CWA MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND VEERS FROM EASTERN
KS TO CENTRAL IL. THIS OCCURRING AS MAIN ENERGY STARTS PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. IN OUR NW CWA WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT THE MAIN ISSUE THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS/AREAS
OF FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL SPREAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE MIDWEST...WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AS PWAT`S INCREASE TO OVER 1.70 INCHES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT IF A SQUALL LINE CAN
ORGANIZE. BUT AGAIN THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING.
AS OF NOW SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN OUR SE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF POTENTIAL WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. CONCUR WITH SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK THAT AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF INSOLATION AND RESULTING POCKETS
OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DECENT SPEED SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AS THE MAIN ISSUE. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS COULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ANOTHER NOTCH INTO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THURSDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RATHER ROBUST
WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES
FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 50S. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND
800MB...WITH A FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. HOWEVER...WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE NOT SUPPORTING A SLAM DUNK WIND
ADVISORY SITUATION. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR LATER SHIFTS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...AND HAVE KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER...MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
SOME MIXING EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE STRONG CAA. THE WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FROST...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT MOST LOCATIONS...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF AMBIENT TEMPS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
FAVORING A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
ALL THE TERMINALS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES...POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY LOWER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT DBQ/CID AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY AT MLI/BRL TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 012003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN TX. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WAS ORGANIZING IN CO WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST MO AND INTO KY. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH ONLY 50S FROM MN TO MI.
A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/HIGHER
PWAT`S WERE LOCATED. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
NW CWA. HOWEVER...IN OUR SE CWA MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND VEERS FROM EASTERN
KS TO CENTRAL IL. THIS OCCURRING AS MAIN ENERGY STARTS PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. IN OUR NW CWA WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT THE MAIN ISSUE THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS/AREAS
OF FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL SPREAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE MIDWEST...WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AS PWAT`S INCREASE TO OVER 1.70 INCHES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT IF A SQUALL LINE CAN
ORGANIZE. BUT AGAIN THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING.
AS OF NOW SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN OUR SE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF POTENTIAL WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. CONCUR WITH SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK THAT AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF INSOLATION AND RESULTING POCKETS
OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DECENT SPEED SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AS THE MAIN ISSUE. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS COULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ANOTHER NOTCH INTO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THURSDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RATHER ROBUST
WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES
FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 50S. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND
800MB...WITH A FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. HOWEVER...WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE NOT SUPPORTING A SLAM DUNK WIND
ADVISORY SITUATION. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR LATER SHIFTS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...AND HAVE KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER...MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
SOME MIXING EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE STRONG CAA. THE WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FROST...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT MOST LOCATIONS...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF AMBIENT TEMPS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
FAVORING A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING MVFR/OCNL IFR IN LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AT KBRL. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...HAASE










000
FXUS63 KDVN 012003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN TX. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WAS ORGANIZING IN CO WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST MO AND INTO KY. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH ONLY 50S FROM MN TO MI.
A SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/HIGHER
PWAT`S WERE LOCATED. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
NW CWA. HOWEVER...IN OUR SE CWA MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND VEERS FROM EASTERN
KS TO CENTRAL IL. THIS OCCURRING AS MAIN ENERGY STARTS PUSHING
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA. IN OUR NW CWA WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS FOR SHOWERS BUT THE MAIN ISSUE THERE WILL BE LOW STRATUS/AREAS
OF FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL SPREAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO THE MIDWEST...WHICH WILL INTERACT
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AS PWAT`S INCREASE TO OVER 1.70 INCHES. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT IF A SQUALL LINE CAN
ORGANIZE. BUT AGAIN THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING.
AS OF NOW SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN OUR SE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF POTENTIAL WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. CONCUR WITH SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK THAT AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF INSOLATION AND RESULTING POCKETS
OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DECENT SPEED SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AS THE MAIN ISSUE. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS COULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ANOTHER NOTCH INTO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THURSDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RATHER ROBUST
WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES
FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 50S. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND
800MB...WITH A FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. HOWEVER...WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE NOT SUPPORTING A SLAM DUNK WIND
ADVISORY SITUATION. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR LATER SHIFTS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...AND HAVE KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER...MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
SOME MIXING EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE STRONG CAA. THE WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FROST...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT MOST LOCATIONS...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF AMBIENT TEMPS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
FAVORING A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING MVFR/OCNL IFR IN LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AT KBRL. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...HAASE









000
FXUS63 KDVN 011816
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
116 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SHOWERS IN
EASTERN IA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO MAINLY OUR
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/HIGHER PWAT`S
EXIST. DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN IL WAS CHEWING AWAY AT THE
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRY`S TO PUSH EASTWARD. THIS AFTERNOON I WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE IN OUR NORTH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE QPF AND COVERAGE OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A DRY NIGHT AHEAD FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE KEEPING HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH. ALSO...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/AREAS
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWED A LARGE MCS FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
INTO WESTERN IA ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WAS LINKED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF A LARGER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP...
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER IL AND WI. AT THE SURFACE THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED IN A COOL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT REACHED ROUGHLY FROM ST
JOSEPH MO E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHILE 40S AND A FEW
LOWER 50S WERE COMMON TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING IN A
WEAKENING FASHION. AN UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER NEB AND KS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES INTO
WESTERN IA. THE OVERALL SETUP WILL IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SUPPORTING GREATEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
AREAS TO THE EAST POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY SEEING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY THE EVENING OVER N
CENTRAL IL. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BY EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST...MILD
AIRMASS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC SW
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
BE ABUNDANT IN THE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OVER THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
SUPPORTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
COULD RESULT IN HALF TO OVER ONE INCH TOTALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY...VIGOROUS L/W TROF STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE/DEEPENING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSION UP THE WESTERN
CWA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY THU EVENING...BUT MODEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVE/TROF PLACEMENT AND EJECTING JET ENERGY SUGGEST THE
LLVL LOW MAY STILL PULL UP A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT WILL. STILL A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH WAVE OF ACTIVITY STREAMING UP
ACRS THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE...
MOST ACTIVE WINDOW LOCALLY FROM 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI OR SO.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT/S OF 1.5 TO 1.6+ INCHES...
COMBINED WITH EXTENT OF LIFT AND DURATION OF EVENT SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ON THE LOW END...
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z FRI MORNING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING
THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 00Z RUN ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A SATURATING
COLUMN AND FURTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...SVR STORM POTENTIAL LIMITED
AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX FIELDS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA ACRS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO INITIATING POINTS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACRS MO AND AR INTO THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FURTHER NORTHWEST SFC LOW EJECTION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIP AREAS TO BE MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FACTORS AND HIGHS FOR THU A CHALLENGE. LARGE TEMP
CONTRASTS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. LARGE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SURGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE TO SWEEP IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRI A RAW BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
RECOVERING JUST 3-7 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN STRONG INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS HELD IN THE 50S. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. TIGHTENING
LLVL CYCLONIC GRADIENT TO DRIVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED AD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT CLEAR OUT. BUT SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT
10-20 MPH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE INHERENT MIXING KEEPING SFC
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT THE FULL COLD POTENTIAL. BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING. BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO SAT WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MORE COLD ALOFT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD POOL OVER THE REGION AND THE
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF LLVL RETURN FLOW AND RIDGE MIGRATING ACRS THE AREA...SAT
NIGHT STILL MAY BE THE NIGHT TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY STILL LEVEL OUT LATE AND START TO RISE TOWARD
DAWN SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. TH CLIPPER TO
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPS WITH IT/S ONGOING
LLVL RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
WEAK WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS PERIOD BEFORE MEAN STEERING FLOW STARTS
TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING MVFR/OCNL IFR IN LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT KBRL.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 011148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWED A LARGE MCS FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
INTO WESTERN IA ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WAS LINKED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF A LARGER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP...
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER IL AND WI. AT THE SURFACE THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED IN A COOL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT REACHED ROUGHLY FROM ST
JOSEPH MO E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHILE 40S AND A FEW
LOWER 50S WERE COMMON TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING IN A
WEAKENING FASHION. AN UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER NEB AND KS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES INTO
WESTERN IA. THE OVERALL SETUP WILL IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SUPPORTING GREATEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
AREAS TO THE EAST POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY SEEING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY THE EVENING OVER N
CENTRAL IL. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BY EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST...MILD
AIRMASS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC SW
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
BE ABUNDANT IN THE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OVER THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
SUPPORTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
COULD RESULT IN HALF TO OVER ONE INCH TOTALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY...VIGOROUS L/W TROF STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE/DEEPENING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSION UP THE WESTERN
CWA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY THU EVENING...BUT MODEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVE/TROF PLACEMENT AND EJECTING JET ENERGY SUGGEST THE
LLVL LOW MAY STILL PULL UP A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT WILL. STILL A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH WAVE OF ACTIVITY STREAMING UP
ACRS THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE...
MOST ACTIVE WINDOW LOCALLY FROM 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI OR SO.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT/S OF 1.5 TO 1.6+ INCHES...
COMBINED WITH EXTENT OF LIFT AND DURATION OF EVENT SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ON THE LOW END...
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z FRI MORNING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING
THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 00Z RUN ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A SATURATING
COLUMN AND FURTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...SVR STORM POTENTIAL LIMITED
AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX FIELDS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA ACRS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO INITIATING POINTS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACRS MO AND AR INTO THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FURTHER NORTHWEST SFC LOW EJECTION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIP AREAS TO BE MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FACTORS AND HIGHS FOR THU A CHALLENGE. LARGE TEMP
CONTRASTS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. LARGE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SURGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE TO SWEEP IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRI A RAW BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
RECOVERING JUST 3-7 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN STRONG INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS HELD IN THE 50S. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. TIGHTENING
LLVL CYCLONIC GRADIENT TO DRIVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED AD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT CLEAR OUT. BUT SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT
10-20 MPH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE INHERENT MIXING KEEPING SFC
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT THE FULL COLD POTENTIAL. BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING. BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO SAT WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MORE COLD ALOFT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD POOL OVER THE REGION AND THE
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF LLVL RETURN FLOW AND RIDGE MIGRATING ACRS THE AREA...SAT
NIGHT STILL MAY BE THE NIGHT TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY STILL LEVEL OUT LATE AND START TO RISE TOWARD
DAWN SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. TH CLIPPER TO
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPS WITH IT/S ONGOING
LLVL RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
WEAK WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS PERIOD BEFORE MEAN STEERING FLOW STARTS
TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE
DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT WORTHY OF MENTION.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO GO NO LOWER THAN MVFR RANGE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO SOME FOG FOR OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED TO THE BRL AREA...WITH FOG
ONLY SHOWN LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SITES COULD HAVE FOG THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 011148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWED A LARGE MCS FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
INTO WESTERN IA ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WAS LINKED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF A LARGER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP...
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER IL AND WI. AT THE SURFACE THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED IN A COOL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT REACHED ROUGHLY FROM ST
JOSEPH MO E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHILE 40S AND A FEW
LOWER 50S WERE COMMON TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING IN A
WEAKENING FASHION. AN UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER NEB AND KS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES INTO
WESTERN IA. THE OVERALL SETUP WILL IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SUPPORTING GREATEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
AREAS TO THE EAST POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY SEEING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY THE EVENING OVER N
CENTRAL IL. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BY EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST...MILD
AIRMASS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC SW
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
BE ABUNDANT IN THE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OVER THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
SUPPORTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
COULD RESULT IN HALF TO OVER ONE INCH TOTALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY...VIGOROUS L/W TROF STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE/DEEPENING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSION UP THE WESTERN
CWA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY THU EVENING...BUT MODEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVE/TROF PLACEMENT AND EJECTING JET ENERGY SUGGEST THE
LLVL LOW MAY STILL PULL UP A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT WILL. STILL A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH WAVE OF ACTIVITY STREAMING UP
ACRS THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE...
MOST ACTIVE WINDOW LOCALLY FROM 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI OR SO.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT/S OF 1.5 TO 1.6+ INCHES...
COMBINED WITH EXTENT OF LIFT AND DURATION OF EVENT SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ON THE LOW END...
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z FRI MORNING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING
THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 00Z RUN ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A SATURATING
COLUMN AND FURTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...SVR STORM POTENTIAL LIMITED
AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX FIELDS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA ACRS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO INITIATING POINTS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACRS MO AND AR INTO THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FURTHER NORTHWEST SFC LOW EJECTION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIP AREAS TO BE MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FACTORS AND HIGHS FOR THU A CHALLENGE. LARGE TEMP
CONTRASTS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. LARGE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SURGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE TO SWEEP IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRI A RAW BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
RECOVERING JUST 3-7 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN STRONG INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS HELD IN THE 50S. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. TIGHTENING
LLVL CYCLONIC GRADIENT TO DRIVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED AD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT CLEAR OUT. BUT SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT
10-20 MPH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE INHERENT MIXING KEEPING SFC
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT THE FULL COLD POTENTIAL. BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING. BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO SAT WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MORE COLD ALOFT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD POOL OVER THE REGION AND THE
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF LLVL RETURN FLOW AND RIDGE MIGRATING ACRS THE AREA...SAT
NIGHT STILL MAY BE THE NIGHT TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY STILL LEVEL OUT LATE AND START TO RISE TOWARD
DAWN SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. TH CLIPPER TO
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPS WITH IT/S ONGOING
LLVL RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
WEAK WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS PERIOD BEFORE MEAN STEERING FLOW STARTS
TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE
DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT WORTHY OF MENTION.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO GO NO LOWER THAN MVFR RANGE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO SOME FOG FOR OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED TO THE BRL AREA...WITH FOG
ONLY SHOWN LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SITES COULD HAVE FOG THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 010904
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
404 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWED A LARGE MCS FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
INTO WESTERN IA ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WAS LINKED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF A LARGER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP...
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER IL AND WI. AT THE SURFACE THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED IN A COOL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT REACHED ROUGHLY FROM ST
JOSEPH MO E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHILE 40S AND A FEW
LOWER 50S WERE COMMON TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING IN A
WEAKENING FASHION. AN UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER NEB AND KS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES INTO
WESTERN IA. THE OVERALL SETUP WILL IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SUPPORTING GREATEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
AREAS TO THE EAST POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY SEEING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY THE EVENING OVER N
CENTRAL IL. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BY EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST...MILD
AIRMASS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC SW
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
BE ABUNDANT IN THE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OVER THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
SUPPORTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
COULD RESULT IN HALF TO OVER ONE INCH TOTALS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY...VIGOROUS L/W TROF STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE/DEEPENING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSION UP THE WESTERN
CWA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY THU EVENING...BUT MODEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVE/TROF PLACEMENT AND EJECTING JET ENERGY SUGGEST THE
LLVL LOW MAY STILL PULL UP A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT WILL. STILL A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH WAVE OF ACTIVITY STREAMING UP
ACRS THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE...
MOST ACTIVE WINDOW LOCALLY FROM 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI OR SO.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT/S OF 1.5 TO 1.6+ INCHES...
COMBINED WITH EXTENT OF LIFT AND DURATION OF EVENT SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ON THE LOW END...
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z FRI MORNING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING
THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 00Z RUN ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A SATURATING
COLUMN AND FURTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...SVR STORM POTENTIAL LIMITED
AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX FIELDS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA ACRS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO INITIATING POINTS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACRS MO AND AR INTO THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FURTHER NORTHWEST SFC LOW EJECTION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIP AREAS TO BE MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FACTORS AND HIGHS FOR THU A CHALLENGE. LARGE TEMP
CONTRASTS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. LARGE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SURGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE TO SWEEP IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRI A RAW BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
RECOVERING JUST 3-7 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN STRONG INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS HELD IN THE 50S. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. TIGHTENING
LLVL CYCLONIC GRADIENT TO DRIVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED AD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT CLEAR OUT. BUT SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT
10-20 MPH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE INHERENT MIXING KEEPING SFC
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT THE FULL COLD POTENTIAL. BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING. BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO SAT WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MORE COLD ALOFT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD POOL OVER THE REGION AND THE
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF LLVL RETURN FLOW AND RIDGE MIGRATING ACRS THE AREA...SAT
NIGHT STILL MAY BE THE NIGHT TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY STILL LEVEL OUT LATE AND START TO RISE TOWARD
DAWN SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. TH CLIPPER TO
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPS WITH IT/S ONGOING
LLVL RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
WEAK WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS PERIOD BEFORE MEAN STEERING FLOW STARTS
TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FAIR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/14Z
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AFTER 01/14Z...SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH CIGS AOA 4K AGL AND SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BETWEEN 01/14Z AND 01/17Z ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 01/22Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES. AFTER 01/22Z...SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST 02/06Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 010432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FAIR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/14Z
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AFTER 01/14Z...SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH CIGS AOA 4K AGL AND SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BETWEEN 01/14Z AND 01/17Z ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 01/22Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES. AFTER 01/22Z...SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST 02/06Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 010432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FAIR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/14Z
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AFTER 01/14Z...SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH CIGS AOA 4K AGL AND SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BETWEEN 01/14Z AND 01/17Z ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 01/22Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES. AFTER 01/22Z...SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST 02/06Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 302335
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/13Z AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER 01/13Z...SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
WITH CIGS AOA 4K AGL AND SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 01/13Z AND
01/16Z ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
01/22Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN
OF 3-5 MILES. AFTER 01/22Z...SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES THROUGH
AT LEAST 02/00Z.  SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 302029 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE















000
FXUS63 KDVN 302029 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE














000
FXUS63 KDVN 302026
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE











000
FXUS63 KDVN 302026
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE












000
FXUS63 KDVN 301734
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301734
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 301131
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THAT OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOLLOWING AN
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY. IFR
CONDITIONS...DUE TO CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
THEN LOW WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION OF THESE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...FORECASTS HAVE ALL SITES
BECOMING MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME EAST AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CID AND DBQ VICINITIES TOWARD SUNRISE...WHICH
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301131
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THAT OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOLLOWING AN
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY. IFR
CONDITIONS...DUE TO CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
THEN LOW WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION OF THESE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...FORECASTS HAVE ALL SITES
BECOMING MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME EAST AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CID AND DBQ VICINITIES TOWARD SUNRISE...WHICH
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 300902
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL STRATUS BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST OVER ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS VERY
WELL...AND WE MAY WELL BE CLOUDY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED DATA. WHILE CLOUDY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS GLOOMY DAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300902
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL STRATUS BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST OVER ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS VERY
WELL...AND WE MAY WELL BE CLOUDY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED DATA. WHILE CLOUDY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS GLOOMY DAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 300435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL STRATUS BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST OVER ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS VERY
WELL...AND WE MAY WELL BE CLOUDY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED DATA. WHILE CLOUDY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS GLOOMY DAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 292326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1500 TO 2500 FT STRATUS...ARRIVING FROM
WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
BREAK UP LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE VFR/CLEAR WEATHER TO
FOLLOW THAT TIME.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 292326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1500 TO 2500 FT STRATUS...ARRIVING FROM
WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
BREAK UP LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE VFR/CLEAR WEATHER TO
FOLLOW THAT TIME.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 292017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS TNGT. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT KDBQ AS AREA BRUSHED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGER THROUGH TUE AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 292017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS TNGT. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT KDBQ AS AREA BRUSHED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGER THROUGH TUE AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291756
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING BROAD RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING ON
FOR NOW ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...UP INTO THE
CENTRAL GRT LKS. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NUDGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE FROM ACRS
NORTHEASTERN CO...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE NEB/SD/IA/MN QUAD-STATE
REGION...AND UP INTO NORTHERN WI/THE NORTHERN GRT LKS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK HELPING
DELINEATE THE TIGHTENING LLVL THERMAL RIBBON...AND BAND OF SHOWERS
ON SOUTH EDGE OF UPPER JET STREAK FROM ACRS SD...CENTRAL MN AND OVER
THE LK SUPERIOR BSN. LLVL RETURN FLOW UP THE PLAINS CONVERGING INTO
THIS BOUNDARY HELPING DEVELOPING ONGOING SHOWER CLUSTERS ALONG THE
NE/SD BORDER REGION INTO NW IA. ALOFT...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TRENDS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE
INDICATING UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO LEE OF LARGE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPIRALING ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TODAY...LOOMING STRONG LLVL ANTICYCLONE STARTING TO SPILL DOWN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER OUT OF CANADA TO HAVE IT/S
PUSH ON THE FRONT TODAY...WITH SREF PLACEMENT SHUNTING THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR EVEN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. BEFORE THIS INCOMING FRONT STARTS TO HAVE IT/S IMPACT...
BULK OF THE DVN CWA TO WARM UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S HIGHS IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH...LOW TO MID
80S. LLVL CONVERGENT FIELDS AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS UP OVER
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST SCTRD SHOWERS TO TAIL THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON SIMILAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON
ALONG THE EASTERN SD/ND BORDER REGION. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
WITH THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGESTING BETTER LIFT AND SATURATION
PROFILES REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE IA/MN
BORDER REGION ACRS INTO SOUTHERN WI. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND
DEEPENING LLVL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO MAKE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...POTS-FRONTAL REGIME OF INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SAG
TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR BEFORE LIFT WANES AND UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE
SLIDES ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THESE
AREAS FOR NOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING PERIOD...BUT THEY MAY
HAVE TO BE RAISED AND EXTENDED LATER INTO THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY CONTINUE WRING OUT SPRINKLES
OUT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD TUE MORNING...BUT LIMITED IMPACT OF THIS MAY
NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FCST PROCESS.
INCREASING POST-FRONTAL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON NOSE OF
BACKDOOR STYLE HIGH PRESSURE TO COOL ADVECT AND BRING SOME OF THE
UPPER OR EVEN MID 40S SEEN NOW ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN...DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY HAVE TEMPS HAVING TROUBLE DIPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE TUE.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THEN LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IS TRENDING STRONGER AND IS DEPICTED PENETRATING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. LOOKING AT
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS RESULTING IN SNOW REPORTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 07Z NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS
TREND LOOKS REASONABLE. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL...NW THROUGH SE IA INTO CENTRAL IA AT 12Z.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRATUS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY WASHES OUT. THIS CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIMIT WARMING AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO A RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE RANGE
OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLDEST NAM/WRF HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE THAT COULD KEEP
STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE
MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL FORCING...UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...AN EASTWARD SHIFTING
AND STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
ONLY IF THE DEEPER MIXING CAN OCCUR...WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT BEST ELSEWHERE...DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INVOLVING THE PHASING OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND HANDLING OF A
POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS
ARE MAINTAINED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS IN SHIFTING THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE ONLY CHANCES ARE
MAINTAINED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
THU...WHICH MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE SETUP WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS HIGH AS
WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE...LOOKING AT THE
FORECAST PW VALUES PUSHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THIS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...A DEEP NW FLOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST DOES LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LATER
FORECASTS AS MODELS CATCH UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOWN
RUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOWN PASSING TO THE
NORTH WOULD RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS TNGT. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT KDBQ AS AREA BRUSHED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGER THROUGH TUE AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291756
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING BROAD RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING ON
FOR NOW ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...UP INTO THE
CENTRAL GRT LKS. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NUDGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE FROM ACRS
NORTHEASTERN CO...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE NEB/SD/IA/MN QUAD-STATE
REGION...AND UP INTO NORTHERN WI/THE NORTHERN GRT LKS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK HELPING
DELINEATE THE TIGHTENING LLVL THERMAL RIBBON...AND BAND OF SHOWERS
ON SOUTH EDGE OF UPPER JET STREAK FROM ACRS SD...CENTRAL MN AND OVER
THE LK SUPERIOR BSN. LLVL RETURN FLOW UP THE PLAINS CONVERGING INTO
THIS BOUNDARY HELPING DEVELOPING ONGOING SHOWER CLUSTERS ALONG THE
NE/SD BORDER REGION INTO NW IA. ALOFT...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TRENDS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE
INDICATING UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO LEE OF LARGE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPIRALING ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TODAY...LOOMING STRONG LLVL ANTICYCLONE STARTING TO SPILL DOWN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER OUT OF CANADA TO HAVE IT/S
PUSH ON THE FRONT TODAY...WITH SREF PLACEMENT SHUNTING THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR EVEN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. BEFORE THIS INCOMING FRONT STARTS TO HAVE IT/S IMPACT...
BULK OF THE DVN CWA TO WARM UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S HIGHS IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH...LOW TO MID
80S. LLVL CONVERGENT FIELDS AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS UP OVER
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST SCTRD SHOWERS TO TAIL THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON SIMILAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON
ALONG THE EASTERN SD/ND BORDER REGION. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
WITH THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGESTING BETTER LIFT AND SATURATION
PROFILES REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE IA/MN
BORDER REGION ACRS INTO SOUTHERN WI. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND
DEEPENING LLVL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO MAKE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...POTS-FRONTAL REGIME OF INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SAG
TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR BEFORE LIFT WANES AND UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE
SLIDES ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THESE
AREAS FOR NOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING PERIOD...BUT THEY MAY
HAVE TO BE RAISED AND EXTENDED LATER INTO THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY CONTINUE WRING OUT SPRINKLES
OUT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD TUE MORNING...BUT LIMITED IMPACT OF THIS MAY
NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FCST PROCESS.
INCREASING POST-FRONTAL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON NOSE OF
BACKDOOR STYLE HIGH PRESSURE TO COOL ADVECT AND BRING SOME OF THE
UPPER OR EVEN MID 40S SEEN NOW ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN...DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY HAVE TEMPS HAVING TROUBLE DIPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE TUE.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THEN LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IS TRENDING STRONGER AND IS DEPICTED PENETRATING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. LOOKING AT
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS RESULTING IN SNOW REPORTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 07Z NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS
TREND LOOKS REASONABLE. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL...NW THROUGH SE IA INTO CENTRAL IA AT 12Z.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRATUS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY WASHES OUT. THIS CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIMIT WARMING AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO A RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE RANGE
OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLDEST NAM/WRF HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE THAT COULD KEEP
STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE
MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL FORCING...UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...AN EASTWARD SHIFTING
AND STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
ONLY IF THE DEEPER MIXING CAN OCCUR...WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT BEST ELSEWHERE...DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INVOLVING THE PHASING OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND HANDLING OF A
POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS
ARE MAINTAINED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS IN SHIFTING THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE ONLY CHANCES ARE
MAINTAINED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
THU...WHICH MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE SETUP WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS HIGH AS
WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE...LOOKING AT THE
FORECAST PW VALUES PUSHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THIS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...A DEEP NW FLOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST DOES LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LATER
FORECASTS AS MODELS CATCH UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOWN
RUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOWN PASSING TO THE
NORTH WOULD RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS TNGT. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT KDBQ AS AREA BRUSHED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGER THROUGH TUE AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 291151
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING BROAD RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING ON
FOR NOW ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...UP INTO THE
CENTRAL GRT LKS. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NUDGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE FROM ACRS
NORTHEASTERN CO...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE NEB/SD/IA/MN QUAD-STATE
REGION...AND UP INTO NORTHERN WI/THE NORTHERN GRT LKS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK HELPING
DELINEATE THE TIGHTENING LLVL THERMAL RIBBON...AND BAND OF SHOWERS
ON SOUTH EDGE OF UPPER JET STREAK FROM ACRS SD...CENTRAL MN AND OVER
THE LK SUPERIOR BSN. LLVL RETURN FLOW UP THE PLAINS CONVERGING INTO
THIS BOUNDARY HELPING DEVELOPING ONGOING SHOWER CLUSTERS ALONG THE
NE/SD BORDER REGION INTO NW IA. ALOFT...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TRENDS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE
INDICATING UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO LEE OF LARGE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPIRALING ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TODAY...LOOMING STRONG LLVL ANTICYCLONE STARTING TO SPILL DOWN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER OUT OF CANADA TO HAVE IT/S
PUSH ON THE FRONT TODAY...WITH SREF PLACEMENT SHUNTING THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR EVEN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. BEFORE THIS INCOMING FRONT STARTS TO HAVE IT/S IMPACT...
BULK OF THE DVN CWA TO WARM UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S HIGHS IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH...LOW TO MID
80S. LLVL CONVERGENT FIELDS AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS UP OVER
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST SCTRD SHOWERS TO TAIL THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON SIMILAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON
ALONG THE EASTERN SD/ND BORDER REGION. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
WITH THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGESTING BETTER LIFT AND SATURATION
PROFILES REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE IA/MN
BORDER REGION ACRS INTO SOUTHERN WI. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND
DEEPENING LLVL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO MAKE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...POTS-FRONTAL REGIME OF INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SAG
TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR BEFORE LIFT WANES AND UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE
SLIDES ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THESE
AREAS FOR NOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING PERIOD...BUT THEY MAY
HAVE TO BE RAISED AND EXTENDED LATER INTO THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY CONTINUE WRING OUT SPRINKLES
OUT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD TUE MORNING...BUT LIMITED IMPACT OF THIS MAY
NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FCST PROCESS.
INCREASING POST-FRONTAL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON NOSE OF
BACKDOOR STYLE HIGH PRESSURE TO COOL ADVECT AND BRING SOME OF THE
UPPER OR EVEN MID 40S SEEN NOW ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN...DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY HAVE TEMPS HAVING TROUBLE DIPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE TUE.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THEN LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IS TRENDING STRONGER AND IS DEPICTED PENETRATING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. LOOKING AT
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS RESULTING IN SNOW REPORTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 07Z NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS
TREND LOOKS REASONABLE. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL...NW THROUGH SE IA INTO CENTRAL IA AT 12Z.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRATUS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY WASHES OUT. THIS CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIMIT WARMING AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO A RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE RANGE
OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLDEST NAM/WRF HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE THAT COULD KEEP
STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE
MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL FORCING...UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...AN EASTWARD SHIFTING
AND STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
ONLY IF THE DEEPER MIXING CAN OCCUR...WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT BEST ELSEWHERE...DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INVOLVING THE PHASING OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND HANDLING OF A
POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS
ARE MAINTAINED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS IN SHIFTING THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE ONLY CHANCES ARE
MAINTAINED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
THU...WHICH MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE SETUP WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS HIGH AS
WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE...LOOKING AT THE
FORECAST PW VALUES PUSHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THIS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...A DEEP NW FLOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST DOES LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LATER
FORECASTS AS MODELS CATCH UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOWN
RUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOWN PASSING TO THE
NORTH WOULD RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AFTER SOME MVFR FOG EFFECTS A FEW TAF SITES THROUGH 8 AM CDT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP AT ALL SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEN A
COOL FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL VEER THE
LIGHT WEST WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS. A POST-FRONTAL MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO LIKELY MAKE IT ACRS THE DBQ AND CID SITES BY
03Z. IT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE MLI SITE BY 06Z TONIGHT. A LOW CHC FOR
A LIGHT SHOWER TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF CID AND DBQ FROM LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE HELD OFF THIS PRECIP MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
MOVE DOWN OUT OF MN AND NORTHEASTERN IA. THE MODELS ALSO GENERATE
SOME POST-FRONTAL MVFR FOG AT MOST SITES BUT THINK THE INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THAT THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION.  ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 291151
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING BROAD RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING ON
FOR NOW ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...UP INTO THE
CENTRAL GRT LKS. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NUDGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE FROM ACRS
NORTHEASTERN CO...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE NEB/SD/IA/MN QUAD-STATE
REGION...AND UP INTO NORTHERN WI/THE NORTHERN GRT LKS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK HELPING
DELINEATE THE TIGHTENING LLVL THERMAL RIBBON...AND BAND OF SHOWERS
ON SOUTH EDGE OF UPPER JET STREAK FROM ACRS SD...CENTRAL MN AND OVER
THE LK SUPERIOR BSN. LLVL RETURN FLOW UP THE PLAINS CONVERGING INTO
THIS BOUNDARY HELPING DEVELOPING ONGOING SHOWER CLUSTERS ALONG THE
NE/SD BORDER REGION INTO NW IA. ALOFT...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TRENDS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE
INDICATING UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO LEE OF LARGE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPIRALING ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TODAY...LOOMING STRONG LLVL ANTICYCLONE STARTING TO SPILL DOWN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER OUT OF CANADA TO HAVE IT/S
PUSH ON THE FRONT TODAY...WITH SREF PLACEMENT SHUNTING THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR EVEN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. BEFORE THIS INCOMING FRONT STARTS TO HAVE IT/S IMPACT...
BULK OF THE DVN CWA TO WARM UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S HIGHS IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH...LOW TO MID
80S. LLVL CONVERGENT FIELDS AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS UP OVER
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST SCTRD SHOWERS TO TAIL THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON SIMILAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON
ALONG THE EASTERN SD/ND BORDER REGION. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
WITH THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGESTING BETTER LIFT AND SATURATION
PROFILES REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE IA/MN
BORDER REGION ACRS INTO SOUTHERN WI. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND
DEEPENING LLVL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO MAKE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...POTS-FRONTAL REGIME OF INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SAG
TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR BEFORE LIFT WANES AND UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE
SLIDES ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THESE
AREAS FOR NOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING PERIOD...BUT THEY MAY
HAVE TO BE RAISED AND EXTENDED LATER INTO THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY CONTINUE WRING OUT SPRINKLES
OUT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD TUE MORNING...BUT LIMITED IMPACT OF THIS MAY
NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FCST PROCESS.
INCREASING POST-FRONTAL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON NOSE OF
BACKDOOR STYLE HIGH PRESSURE TO COOL ADVECT AND BRING SOME OF THE
UPPER OR EVEN MID 40S SEEN NOW ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN...DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY HAVE TEMPS HAVING TROUBLE DIPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE TUE.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THEN LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IS TRENDING STRONGER AND IS DEPICTED PENETRATING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. LOOKING AT
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS RESULTING IN SNOW REPORTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 07Z NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS
TREND LOOKS REASONABLE. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL...NW THROUGH SE IA INTO CENTRAL IA AT 12Z.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRATUS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY WASHES OUT. THIS CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIMIT WARMING AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO A RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE RANGE
OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLDEST NAM/WRF HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE THAT COULD KEEP
STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE
MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL FORCING...UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...AN EASTWARD SHIFTING
AND STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
ONLY IF THE DEEPER MIXING CAN OCCUR...WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT BEST ELSEWHERE...DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INVOLVING THE PHASING OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND HANDLING OF A
POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS
ARE MAINTAINED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS IN SHIFTING THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE ONLY CHANCES ARE
MAINTAINED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
THU...WHICH MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE SETUP WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS HIGH AS
WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE...LOOKING AT THE
FORECAST PW VALUES PUSHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THIS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...A DEEP NW FLOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST DOES LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LATER
FORECASTS AS MODELS CATCH UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOWN
RUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOWN PASSING TO THE
NORTH WOULD RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AFTER SOME MVFR FOG EFFECTS A FEW TAF SITES THROUGH 8 AM CDT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP AT ALL SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING. THEN A
COOL FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL VEER THE
LIGHT WEST WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS. A POST-FRONTAL MVFR
CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO LIKELY MAKE IT ACRS THE DBQ AND CID SITES BY
03Z. IT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE MLI SITE BY 06Z TONIGHT. A LOW CHC FOR
A LIGHT SHOWER TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF CID AND DBQ FROM LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE HELD OFF THIS PRECIP MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
MOVE DOWN OUT OF MN AND NORTHEASTERN IA. THE MODELS ALSO GENERATE
SOME POST-FRONTAL MVFR FOG AT MOST SITES BUT THINK THE INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THAT THREAT OF VSBY REDUCTION.  ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 290848
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING BROAD RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING ON
FOR NOW ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...UP INTO THE
CENTRAL GRT LKS. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NUDGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE FROM ACRS
NORTHEASTERN CO...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE NEB/SD/IA/MN QUAD-STATE
REGION...AND UP INTO NORTHERN WI/THE NORTHERN GRT LKS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK HELPING
DELINEATE THE TIGHTENING LLVL THERMAL RIBBON...AND BAND OF SHOWERS
ON SOUTH EDGE OF UPPER JET STREAK FROM ACRS SD...CENTRAL MN AND OVER
THE LK SUPERIOR BSN. LLVL RETURN FLOW UP THE PLAINS CONVERGING INTO
THIS BOUNDARY HELPING DEVELOPING ONGOING SHOWER CLUSTERS ALONG THE
NE/SD BORDER REGION INTO NW IA. ALOFT...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TRENDS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE
INDICATING UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO LEE OF LARGE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPIRALING ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TODAY...LOOMING STRONG LLVL ANTICYCLONE STARTING TO SPILL DOWN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER OUT OF CANADA TO HAVE IT/S
PUSH ON THE FRONT TODAY...WITH SREF PLACEMENT SHUNTING THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR EVEN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. BEFORE THIS INCOMING FRONT STARTS TO HAVE IT/S IMPACT...
BULK OF THE DVN CWA TO WARM UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S HIGHS IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH...LOW TO MID
80S. LLVL CONVERGENT FIELDS AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS UP OVER
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST SCTRD SHOWERS TO TAIL THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON SIMILAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON
ALONG THE EASTERN SD/ND BORDER REGION. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
WITH THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGESTING BETTER LIFT AND SATURATION
PROFILES REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE IA/MN
BORDER REGION ACRS INTO SOUTHERN WI. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND
DEEPENING LLVL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO MAKE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...POTS-FRONTAL REGIME OF INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SAG
TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR BEFORE LIFT WANES AND UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE
SLIDES ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THESE
AREAS FOR NOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING PERIOD...BUT THEY MAY
HAVE TO BE RAISED AND EXTENDED LATER INTO THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY CONTINUE WRING OUT SPRINKLES
OUT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD TUE MORNING...BUT LIMITED IMPACT OF THIS MAY
NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FCST PROCESS.
INCREASING POST-FRONTAL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON NOSE OF
BACKDOOR STYLE HIGH PRESSURE TO COOL ADVECT AND BRING SOME OF THE
UPPER OR EVEN MID 40S SEEN NOW ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN...DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY HAVE TEMPS HAVING TROUBLE DIPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE TUE.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THEN LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IS TRENDING STRONGER AND IS DEPICTED PENETRATING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. LOOKING AT
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS RESULTING IN SNOW REPORTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 07Z NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS
TREND LOOKS REASONABLE. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL...NW THROUGH SE IA INTO CENTRAL IA AT 12Z.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRATUS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY WASHES OUT. THIS CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIMIT WARMING AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO A RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE RANGE
OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLDEST NAM/WRF HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE THAT COULD KEEP
STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE
MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL FORCING...UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...AN EASTWARD SHIFTING
AND STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
ONLY IF THE DEEPER MIXING CAN OCCUR...WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT BEST ELSEWHERE...DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INVOLVING THE PHASING OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND HANDLING OF A
POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS
ARE MAINTAINED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS IN SHIFTING THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE ONLY CHANCES ARE
MAINTAINED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
THU...WHICH MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE SETUP WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS HIGH AS
WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE...LOOKING AT THE
FORECAST PW VALUES PUSHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THIS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...A DEEP NW FLOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST DOES LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LATER
FORECASTS AS MODELS CATCH UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOWN
RUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOWN PASSING TO THE
NORTH WOULD RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE
TAF CYCLE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST IOWA...WITH
A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6 TO 8 KTS FOR MONDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SHALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS 09Z- 12Z
ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS JUST LIKE THE PAST TWO EARLY MORNINGS
OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING...THERE
WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY...I HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS AT CID
AND DBQ.   ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 290848
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING BROAD RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING ON
FOR NOW ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...UP INTO THE
CENTRAL GRT LKS. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NUDGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS FEATURE FROM ACRS
NORTHEASTERN CO...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE NEB/SD/IA/MN QUAD-STATE
REGION...AND UP INTO NORTHERN WI/THE NORTHERN GRT LKS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK HELPING
DELINEATE THE TIGHTENING LLVL THERMAL RIBBON...AND BAND OF SHOWERS
ON SOUTH EDGE OF UPPER JET STREAK FROM ACRS SD...CENTRAL MN AND OVER
THE LK SUPERIOR BSN. LLVL RETURN FLOW UP THE PLAINS CONVERGING INTO
THIS BOUNDARY HELPING DEVELOPING ONGOING SHOWER CLUSTERS ALONG THE
NE/SD BORDER REGION INTO NW IA. ALOFT...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TRENDS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE
INDICATING UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO LEE OF LARGE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SPIRALING ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TODAY...LOOMING STRONG LLVL ANTICYCLONE STARTING TO SPILL DOWN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER OUT OF CANADA TO HAVE IT/S
PUSH ON THE FRONT TODAY...WITH SREF PLACEMENT SHUNTING THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OR EVEN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. BEFORE THIS INCOMING FRONT STARTS TO HAVE IT/S IMPACT...
BULK OF THE DVN CWA TO WARM UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S HIGHS IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH...LOW TO MID
80S. LLVL CONVERGENT FIELDS AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS UP OVER
THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST SCTRD SHOWERS TO TAIL THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON SIMILAR WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON
ALONG THE EASTERN SD/ND BORDER REGION. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW
WITH THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGESTING BETTER LIFT AND SATURATION
PROFILES REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE IA/MN
BORDER REGION ACRS INTO SOUTHERN WI. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND
DEEPENING LLVL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO MAKE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT
FROM THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...POTS-FRONTAL REGIME OF INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SAG
TOWARD THE I80 CORRIDOR BEFORE LIFT WANES AND UPSTREAM OMEGA RIDGE
SLIDES ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THESE
AREAS FOR NOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING PERIOD...BUT THEY MAY
HAVE TO BE RAISED AND EXTENDED LATER INTO THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY CONTINUE WRING OUT SPRINKLES
OUT OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD TUE MORNING...BUT LIMITED IMPACT OF THIS MAY
NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS JUNCTURE OF THE FCST PROCESS.
INCREASING POST-FRONTAL NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON NOSE OF
BACKDOOR STYLE HIGH PRESSURE TO COOL ADVECT AND BRING SOME OF THE
UPPER OR EVEN MID 40S SEEN NOW ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN...DOWN
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA MAY HAVE TEMPS HAVING TROUBLE DIPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE TUE.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING EARLY THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THEN LIKELY BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IS TRENDING STRONGER AND IS DEPICTED PENETRATING FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. LOOKING AT
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS RESULTING IN SNOW REPORTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 07Z NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS
TREND LOOKS REASONABLE. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL...NW THROUGH SE IA INTO CENTRAL IA AT 12Z.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRATUS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY WASHES OUT. THIS CLOUD COVER...AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIMIT WARMING AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO A RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE RANGE
OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE COLDEST NAM/WRF HIGHS IN A RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE THAT COULD KEEP
STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SPREADING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE
MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL FORCING...UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WEST FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...AN EASTWARD SHIFTING
AND STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
ONLY IF THE DEEPER MIXING CAN OCCUR...WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT BEST ELSEWHERE...DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INVOLVING THE PHASING OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND HANDLING OF A
POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...LIKELY POPS
ARE MAINTAINED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS IN SHIFTING THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE ONLY CHANCES ARE
MAINTAINED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
THU...WHICH MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE SETUP WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS HIGH AS
WIDESPREAD ONE HALF TO LOCALLY AN INCH OR MORE...LOOKING AT THE
FORECAST PW VALUES PUSHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THIS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...A DEEP NW FLOW FOLLOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE LATEST FORECAST DOES LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LATER
FORECASTS AS MODELS CATCH UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR SHOWN
RUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 850 MB. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOWN PASSING TO THE
NORTH WOULD RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE
TAF CYCLE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST IOWA...WITH
A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6 TO 8 KTS FOR MONDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SHALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS 09Z- 12Z
ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS JUST LIKE THE PAST TWO EARLY MORNINGS
OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING...THERE
WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY...I HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS AT CID
AND DBQ.   ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 290430
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER MIDWEST FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT WITH
SYSTEM OPENING UP /WEAKENING/ WHILE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS AFTN BEING INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ADVANCING TOWARD THE US/CANADA BORDER.
AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CWA RESULTING IN
ANOTHER STELLAR AND COMFORTABLY WARM EARLY FALL DAY WITH NEAR CALM
WIND... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY GROUND AIDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS AT 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT WHILE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND GREAT LAKES
THROUGH 12Z MON. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT... WHICH COUPLED WITH LIGHT
WIND AND DRY GROUND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SIDING NEAR TO JUST BELOW
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND MAINLY IN RANGE OF 52-58F WITH
AGAIN SOME LOW LYING LOCATIONS POSSIBLY AROUND 50. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
SHALLOW... STEEP INVERSION.

MONDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND NEAR THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR BY 00Z TUE.
NORMALLY WOULD GO ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THIS
SCENARIO BUT BEING NEARLY OCTOBER AND SUN STRENGTH SIMILAR TO THAT
OF EARLY MARCH... ALONG WITH MIXING OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
YIELDING WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE COMPONENT TYPICALLY NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ABOVE GUIDANCE WARMING... AND ADDING IN SCT-BKN COVERAGE OF PM
CUMULUS ALL LEADS ME TO TEMPER EXPECTATIONS AND POSSIBLY ANTICIPATE
A VERY MINOR SETBACK ON HIGHS FROM PAST DAYS SOME LOCATIONS WITH GENERAL
RANGE FROM 77-83F. FORCING SUPPORTS ANY PCPN CHCS POST-FRONTAL AND
STAYING JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 00Z ROOTED NEAR 850 MB AND ATTENDANT
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND STALL
ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...THAT ARE CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN CANADA...ARRIVING IN
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD
ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE.

SUNRISE TUESDAY WILL STOP THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM GETTING MUCH
WEST OF A KIIB TO KVYS LINE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ERODE THE CLOUDS
DURING THE MORNING LEAVING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ARRIVING STORM SYSTEM.

TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND
SOME FORCING START MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST BRINGING A THREAT OF
MAINLY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD INITIATE NEW
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BUT THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO MARK THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR THE AREA. THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG WITH STRONGER FORCING WOULD SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE AND THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RESPECTIVELY. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING. FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...
FAVORED COLD AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY SEE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE
TAF CYCLE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHEAST IOWA...WITH
A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6 TO 8 KTS FOR MONDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SHALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROMOTE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS 09Z- 12Z
ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS JUST LIKE THE PAST TWO EARLY MORNINGS
OVER THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING...THERE
WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LOW
CERTAINTY...I HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS AT CID
AND DBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN







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