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000
FXUS63 KDVN 301649
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
BEGUN IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE
NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
NEEDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA.
THE ONSET TIME OF MEASURABLE SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
THE WATCH TIMING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST. OVERALL...WANTED TO REDUCE COMPLEXITY WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH TO THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY TO ADJUST SKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301649
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
BEGUN IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE
NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
NEEDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA.
THE ONSET TIME OF MEASURABLE SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
THE WATCH TIMING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST. OVERALL...WANTED TO REDUCE COMPLEXITY WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH TO THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY TO ADJUST SKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 301210
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301210
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 300923
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300923
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 300539
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300539
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 300034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-05Z. EXPECT A DIMINISHING NORTHWEST
WIND...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 300034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-05Z. EXPECT A DIMINISHING NORTHWEST
WIND...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 292133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE DECK MOVES OUT COMPLETELY. SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 292133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE DECK MOVES OUT COMPLETELY. SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291731 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS A TAD BIT LONGER ACROSS WESTERN IL.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS UP NORTH IN MN...HOWEVER THE
CLEARING IS STILL ACROSS N MN AND HEADING SOUTH. THE TOA TOOL
SUGGEST IT GETS TO US IN 13 HOURS...THINK WE WILL BREAK UP SOONER.
OTHERWISE...SOME TWEAKS TO TEMP AND TD TRENDS WERE MADE. NO OTHER
SIG UPDATES EXPECTED BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TODAY LOOKS
RATHER QUIET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE DECK MOVES OUT COMPLETELY. SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GIBBS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 291731 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS A TAD BIT LONGER ACROSS WESTERN IL.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS UP NORTH IN MN...HOWEVER THE
CLEARING IS STILL ACROSS N MN AND HEADING SOUTH. THE TOA TOOL
SUGGEST IT GETS TO US IN 13 HOURS...THINK WE WILL BREAK UP SOONER.
OTHERWISE...SOME TWEAKS TO TEMP AND TD TRENDS WERE MADE. NO OTHER
SIG UPDATES EXPECTED BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TODAY LOOKS
RATHER QUIET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE DECK MOVES OUT COMPLETELY. SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291641 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1041 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS A TAD BIT LONGER ACROSS WESTERN IL.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS UP NORTH IN MN...HOWEVER THE
CLEARING IS STILL ACROSS N MN AND HEADING SOUTH. THE TOA TOOL
SUGGEST IT GETS TO US IN 13 HOURS...THINK WE WILL BREAK UP SOONER.
OTHERWISE...SOME TWEAKS TO TEMP AND TD TRENDS WERE MADE. NO OTHER
SIG UPDATES EXPECTED BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TODAY LOOKS
RATHER QUIET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TEMPORARY CLEARING AT KDBQ/KCID HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER BRIEF
WINDOW OF -FZDZ AT THESE SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291641 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1041 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS A TAD BIT LONGER ACROSS WESTERN IL.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS UP NORTH IN MN...HOWEVER THE
CLEARING IS STILL ACROSS N MN AND HEADING SOUTH. THE TOA TOOL
SUGGEST IT GETS TO US IN 13 HOURS...THINK WE WILL BREAK UP SOONER.
OTHERWISE...SOME TWEAKS TO TEMP AND TD TRENDS WERE MADE. NO OTHER
SIG UPDATES EXPECTED BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TODAY LOOKS
RATHER QUIET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TEMPORARY CLEARING AT KDBQ/KCID HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER BRIEF
WINDOW OF -FZDZ AT THESE SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 290932
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TEMPORARY CLEARING AT KDBQ/KCID HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER BRIEF
WINDOW OF -FZDZ AT THESE SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 290932
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TEMPORARY CLEARING AT KDBQ/KCID HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER BRIEF
WINDOW OF -FZDZ AT THESE SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 290620
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1220 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HAS ALLOWED SURFACE AND ROAD
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH
AREA OF DRIZZLE QUICKLY APPROACHING...HAVE ADDED A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES AND TEMPERATURES RISE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE NORTHWEST WIND...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL END. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOLLOWING
COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
THE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FILTERED SUN THROUGH MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE DVN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COVER ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR NE HALF WAS
IMPACTING TEMPERATURES DESPITE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. 2 PM
READINGS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S AT DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT TO THE
MID 40S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO ND WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 20S. LOW PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO EASTERN/SE IOWA AND THEN INTO WESTERN IL. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT
SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POST FRONTAL
WHERE THE AIRMASS BECOMES SATURATED BELOW 800 MB. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

THURSDAY...WINDY/COLD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST AND 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE MAY
BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE MORNING MAINLY EAST OF
THE MS RIVER...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. TIGHT GRADIENT IS
OVER THE CWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH. AS OF NOW EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPERATURE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM HAS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST.

DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

NEARLY ALL THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND NOW BRING IT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MOIST IS VERY SPARSE SO ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER ARRIVAL. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNSET. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WHERE SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.

SATURDAY NIGHT ON...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THE MODELS HAVE DONE A BIG CHANGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE NOW TAKING A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE AREA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 12Z WRF RUN WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z GEM RUN WHICH BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO THE MIDWEST.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY.

A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY THAT WILL CREATE THIS STORM IS OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND IS NOT BEING SAMPLED BY BALLOON DATA. THUS
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE MODELS WILL UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN POTENTIAL STORM TRACKS OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ON SHORE AND BETTER SAMPLED.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT ARE CUT OFF IN THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS USUALLY...BUT NOT ALWAYS...MOVE OUT SLOWER THAN WHAT
THE MODELS DEPICT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR LINGERING SNOW AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TEMPORARY CLEARING AT KDBQ/KCID HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER BRIEF
WINDOW OF -FZDZ AT THESE SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 290620
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1220 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HAS ALLOWED SURFACE AND ROAD
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WITH
AREA OF DRIZZLE QUICKLY APPROACHING...HAVE ADDED A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES AND TEMPERATURES RISE
SLIGHTLY WITH THE NORTHWEST WIND...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL END. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOLLOWING
COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
THE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FILTERED SUN THROUGH MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE DVN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COVER ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR NE HALF WAS
IMPACTING TEMPERATURES DESPITE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. 2 PM
READINGS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S AT DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT TO THE
MID 40S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO ND WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 20S. LOW PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO EASTERN/SE IOWA AND THEN INTO WESTERN IL. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT
SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POST FRONTAL
WHERE THE AIRMASS BECOMES SATURATED BELOW 800 MB. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

THURSDAY...WINDY/COLD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST AND 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE MAY
BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE MORNING MAINLY EAST OF
THE MS RIVER...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. TIGHT GRADIENT IS
OVER THE CWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH. AS OF NOW EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPERATURE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM HAS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST.

DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

NEARLY ALL THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND NOW BRING IT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MOIST IS VERY SPARSE SO ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER ARRIVAL. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNSET. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WHERE SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.

SATURDAY NIGHT ON...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THE MODELS HAVE DONE A BIG CHANGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE NOW TAKING A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE AREA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 12Z WRF RUN WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z GEM RUN WHICH BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO THE MIDWEST.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY.

A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY THAT WILL CREATE THIS STORM IS OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND IS NOT BEING SAMPLED BY BALLOON DATA. THUS
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE MODELS WILL UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN POTENTIAL STORM TRACKS OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ON SHORE AND BETTER SAMPLED.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT ARE CUT OFF IN THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS USUALLY...BUT NOT ALWAYS...MOVE OUT SLOWER THAN WHAT
THE MODELS DEPICT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR LINGERING SNOW AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TEMPORARY CLEARING AT KDBQ/KCID HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER BRIEF
WINDOW OF -FZDZ AT THESE SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 290007
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
607 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOLLOWING
COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
THE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FILTERED SUN THROUGH MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE DVN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COVER ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR NE HALF WAS
IMPACTING TEMPERATURES DESPITE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. 2 PM
READINGS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S AT DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT TO THE
MID 40S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO ND WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 20S. LOW PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO EASTERN/SE IOWA AND THEN INTO WESTERN IL. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT
SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POST FRONTAL
WHERE THE AIRMASS BECOMES SATURATED BELOW 800 MB. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

THURSDAY...WINDY/COLD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST AND 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE MAY
BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE MORNING MAINLY EAST OF
THE MS RIVER...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. TIGHT GRADIENT IS
OVER THE CWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH. AS OF NOW EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPERATURE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM HAS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST.

DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

NEARLY ALL THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND NOW BRING IT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MOIST IS VERY SPARSE SO ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER ARRIVAL. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNSET. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WHERE SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.

SATURDAY NIGHT ON...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THE MODELS HAVE DONE A BIG CHANGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE NOW TAKING A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE AREA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 12Z WRF RUN WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z GEM RUN WHICH BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO THE MIDWEST.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY.

A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY THAT WILL CREATE THIS STORM IS OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND IS NOT BEING SAMPLED BY BALLOON DATA. THUS
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE MODELS WILL UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN POTENTIAL STORM TRACKS OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ON SHORE AND BETTER SAMPLED.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT ARE CUT OFF IN THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS USUALLY...BUT NOT ALWAYS...MOVE OUT SLOWER THAN WHAT
THE MODELS DEPICT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR LINGERING SNOW AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER
THE LOW PASSES...THE WIND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND SWITCH TO
NORTHWESTERLY. MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY AT
KCID/KDBQ OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE MORE LIKELY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 282038
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FILTERED SUN THROUGH MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE DVN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COVER ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR NE HALF WAS
IMPACTING TEMPERATURES DESPITE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. 2 PM
READINGS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S AT DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT TO THE
MID 40S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO ND WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 20S. LOW PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO EASTERN/SE IOWA AND THEN INTO WESTERN IL. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT
SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POST FRONTAL
WHERE THE AIRMASS BECOMES SATURATED BELOW 800 MB. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

THURSDAY...WINDY/COLD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST AND 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE MAY
BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE MORNING MAINLY EAST OF
THE MS RIVER...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. TIGHT GRADIENT IS
OVER THE CWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH. AS OF NOW EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPERATURE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM HAS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST.

DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

NEARLY ALL THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND NOW BRING IT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MOIST IS VERY SPARSE SO ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER ARRIVAL. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNSET. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WHERE SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.

SATURDAY NIGHT ON...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THE MODELS HAVE DONE A BIG CHANGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE NOW TAKING A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE AREA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 12Z WRF RUN WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z GEM RUN WHICH BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO THE MIDWEST.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY.

A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY THAT WILL CREATE THIS STORM IS OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND IS NOT BEING SAMPLED BY BALLOON DATA. THUS
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE MODELS WILL UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN POTENTIAL STORM TRACKS OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ON SHORE AND BETTER SAMPLED.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT ARE CUT OFF IN THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS USUALLY...BUT NOT ALWAYS...MOVE OUT SLOWER THAN WHAT
THE MODELS DEPICT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR LINGERING SNOW AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MVFR/POSSIBLE
IFR CONDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AFTER 06Z/29. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE














000
FXUS63 KDVN 282038
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FILTERED SUN THROUGH MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS WAS OVER MUCH OF THE DVN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COVER ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR NE HALF WAS
IMPACTING TEMPERATURES DESPITE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. 2 PM
READINGS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S AT DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT TO THE
MID 40S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO ND WHERE READINGS WERE IN THE 20S. LOW PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED NEAR SIOUX FALLS. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO EASTERN/SE IOWA AND THEN INTO WESTERN IL. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT
SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POST FRONTAL
WHERE THE AIRMASS BECOMES SATURATED BELOW 800 MB. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

THURSDAY...WINDY/COLD DAY AS LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT PUSH OFF TO OUR
EAST AND 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE MAY
BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE MORNING MAINLY EAST OF
THE MS RIVER...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. TIGHT GRADIENT IS
OVER THE CWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
40 MPH. AS OF NOW EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. NOT MUCH RISE IN TEMPERATURE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM HAS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST.

DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

NEARLY ALL THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND NOW BRING IT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MOIST IS VERY SPARSE SO ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER ARRIVAL. THUS MOST IF
NOT ALL THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNSET. AN
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREA WHERE SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.

SATURDAY NIGHT ON...
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THE MODELS HAVE DONE A BIG CHANGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE NOW TAKING A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE AREA. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 12Z WRF RUN WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z GEM RUN WHICH BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM TO THE MIDWEST.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY.

A MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY THAT WILL CREATE THIS STORM IS OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND IS NOT BEING SAMPLED BY BALLOON DATA. THUS
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE MODELS WILL UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT SWINGS IN POTENTIAL STORM TRACKS OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ON SHORE AND BETTER SAMPLED.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT ARE CUT OFF IN THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS USUALLY...BUT NOT ALWAYS...MOVE OUT SLOWER THAN WHAT
THE MODELS DEPICT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR LINGERING SNOW AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MVFR/POSSIBLE
IFR CONDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AFTER 06Z/29. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE













000
FXUS63 KDVN 281755
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AS EXPECTED THE LOW STRATUS HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DVN CWA
ON STRENGTHENING SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS/STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
IN THE MEANTIME...OPAGUE CIRRUS WAS SPREADING OVER THE CWA AND THIS...
ALONG WITH SNOW COVER IN ROUGHLY OUR NE HALF...WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS TO LOWER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CLEARING IS SPREADING NORTH FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT TO TODAYS HIGHS. I HAVE CLEARED SKIES TO MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGHS TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA. OVER SNOW...I RETAINED HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE CLOUDS
ARE ERASED FROM THE SKY...MEANWHILE...MODELS HAVE NO IDEA THIS IS
HAPPENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

YESTERDAYS PERSISTENT PROBLEMATIC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAYS NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING THIS CLOUD COVER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...
WE NOW SEE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA...AND FOR THE MOMENT...
RELATIVE DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. THIS AIS ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOUDS COULD NOT BE MORE CHALLENGING TODAY. IN ONCE SENSE...
STEADY CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN REALITY...BUT NOT IN COMPUTER
MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z TO SHOW CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH LIFT AND INCREASING
MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER COOL AIR...WE MAY GENERATE MORE
CLOUDS... EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...SOUTH? I-80? NORTH? SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST
OVER OUR WEST 1/2 OR OUR SOUTH...SO I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HOLD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT
THAT COULD EASILY BE OFF BY SEVERAL COUNTIES...IN A WAY...I AM
CERTAIN AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CLOUDS GO...SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTS 40S AND EVEN 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH 100%
CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORY OVER SNOW COVER...THE FAR NORTH MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 30S...VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER HEAD...ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER SEEMS WARRANTED...BUT
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW WAVES OF
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LOW. IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAWN BEFORE CAA
DRAGS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING...SO I AM THINKING THAT
WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...BUT IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD BE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL WALK OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OR EVEN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA JUST THROUGH 15Z
THU IN WAKE OF EXITING CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
TOP-DOWN COOLING ONGOING MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLET MIX IN THE FAR EAST THRU MID MORNING. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THU WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SFC WIND SURGE...WITH
MIXING-DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES IN TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND PLAINS RIDGE LOBE...SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE AN IN-RUSH OF
COOLING AIR MASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DELAY
IN THE REAL COOLER PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE
WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD THU NIGHT FOR A SFC WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE...IF SKIES
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR EXTENT OF INCOMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH HALF OR MORE...AROUND 20 IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION UNDER PASSING HIGH
COMPLEX ON FRI...WEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS AND COOL START TO THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF...TO
MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. QUICK TEMP DROP OFF FRI
EVENING AFTER SUNSET...THEN IT WILL BE UP TO THE TIMING OF THE
START OF BL RETURN FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR
A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE INTO SAT MORNING. ANY FURTHER DELAY IN
THAT PROCESS WILL MAKE THE ADVERTISED LOWS STILL TOO MILD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MANY OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HEAVILY USED GFS AND ECMWF...PHASE THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIGGING UPPER TROF ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GRT BSN
UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE DEVELOPED LLVL
LOW AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING UP TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AN ENHANCED MILD/MOIST
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERRUNNING IT ACRS
THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES MAYBE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON...BULK OF
THERMAL PROFILES ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT FRIGID...STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A WET SNOW EVENT. POSSIBLY A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT AT
TIMES...AS WELL AS A RATHER LONG DURATION/SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING/BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 00Z RUN
ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE DVN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD...ENOUGH SO TO MAKE FOR A LONG DURATION ADVISORY
OR EVEN A 24 HR WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. DEEPENING ON THE MAIN SFC LOW
TRACK...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPOUNDING THE WINTERY
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD...AND MUCH
ATTENTION WILL HAVE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE COMING MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION...PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES TO
BE WORKED OUT. ALSO AFTER WHATEVER TYPE OF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN
EXITS THE REGION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY.
WITH FRESH AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...A COLD WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN POINTING TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...
MONDAY MAY BE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN
THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT THE
COLD TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY EVOLUTION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT FLATTENING FLOW BY TUE WITH
SOME TEMP MODIFICATION INTO MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT EMBEDDED IN THAT TUE TIME-FRAME AS WELL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ELEVATED WAA PUSH.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AFTER 06Z/29. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 281755
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AS EXPECTED THE LOW STRATUS HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DVN CWA
ON STRENGTHENING SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS/STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
IN THE MEANTIME...OPAGUE CIRRUS WAS SPREADING OVER THE CWA AND THIS...
ALONG WITH SNOW COVER IN ROUGHLY OUR NE HALF...WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS TO LOWER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CLEARING IS SPREADING NORTH FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT TO TODAYS HIGHS. I HAVE CLEARED SKIES TO MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGHS TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA. OVER SNOW...I RETAINED HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE CLOUDS
ARE ERASED FROM THE SKY...MEANWHILE...MODELS HAVE NO IDEA THIS IS
HAPPENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

YESTERDAYS PERSISTENT PROBLEMATIC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAYS NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING THIS CLOUD COVER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...
WE NOW SEE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA...AND FOR THE MOMENT...
RELATIVE DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. THIS AIS ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOUDS COULD NOT BE MORE CHALLENGING TODAY. IN ONCE SENSE...
STEADY CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN REALITY...BUT NOT IN COMPUTER
MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z TO SHOW CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH LIFT AND INCREASING
MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER COOL AIR...WE MAY GENERATE MORE
CLOUDS... EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...SOUTH? I-80? NORTH? SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST
OVER OUR WEST 1/2 OR OUR SOUTH...SO I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HOLD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT
THAT COULD EASILY BE OFF BY SEVERAL COUNTIES...IN A WAY...I AM
CERTAIN AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CLOUDS GO...SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTS 40S AND EVEN 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH 100%
CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORY OVER SNOW COVER...THE FAR NORTH MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 30S...VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER HEAD...ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER SEEMS WARRANTED...BUT
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW WAVES OF
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LOW. IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAWN BEFORE CAA
DRAGS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING...SO I AM THINKING THAT
WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...BUT IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD BE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL WALK OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OR EVEN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA JUST THROUGH 15Z
THU IN WAKE OF EXITING CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
TOP-DOWN COOLING ONGOING MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLET MIX IN THE FAR EAST THRU MID MORNING. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THU WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SFC WIND SURGE...WITH
MIXING-DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES IN TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND PLAINS RIDGE LOBE...SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE AN IN-RUSH OF
COOLING AIR MASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DELAY
IN THE REAL COOLER PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE
WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD THU NIGHT FOR A SFC WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE...IF SKIES
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR EXTENT OF INCOMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH HALF OR MORE...AROUND 20 IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION UNDER PASSING HIGH
COMPLEX ON FRI...WEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS AND COOL START TO THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF...TO
MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. QUICK TEMP DROP OFF FRI
EVENING AFTER SUNSET...THEN IT WILL BE UP TO THE TIMING OF THE
START OF BL RETURN FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR
A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE INTO SAT MORNING. ANY FURTHER DELAY IN
THAT PROCESS WILL MAKE THE ADVERTISED LOWS STILL TOO MILD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MANY OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HEAVILY USED GFS AND ECMWF...PHASE THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIGGING UPPER TROF ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GRT BSN
UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE DEVELOPED LLVL
LOW AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING UP TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AN ENHANCED MILD/MOIST
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERRUNNING IT ACRS
THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES MAYBE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON...BULK OF
THERMAL PROFILES ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT FRIGID...STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A WET SNOW EVENT. POSSIBLY A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT AT
TIMES...AS WELL AS A RATHER LONG DURATION/SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING/BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 00Z RUN
ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE DVN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD...ENOUGH SO TO MAKE FOR A LONG DURATION ADVISORY
OR EVEN A 24 HR WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. DEEPENING ON THE MAIN SFC LOW
TRACK...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPOUNDING THE WINTERY
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD...AND MUCH
ATTENTION WILL HAVE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE COMING MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION...PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES TO
BE WORKED OUT. ALSO AFTER WHATEVER TYPE OF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN
EXITS THE REGION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY.
WITH FRESH AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...A COLD WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN POINTING TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...
MONDAY MAY BE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN
THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT THE
COLD TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY EVOLUTION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT FLATTENING FLOW BY TUE WITH
SOME TEMP MODIFICATION INTO MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT EMBEDDED IN THAT TUE TIME-FRAME AS WELL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ELEVATED WAA PUSH.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AFTER 06Z/29. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CLEARING IS SPREADING NORTH FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT TO TODAYS HIGHS. I HAVE CLEARED SKIES TO MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGHS TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA. OVER SNOW...I RETAINED HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE CLOUDS
ARE ERASED FROM THE SKY...MEANWHILE...MODELS HAVE NO IDEA THIS IS
HAPPENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

YESTERDAYS PERSISTENT PROBLEMATIC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAYS NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING THIS CLOUD COVER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...
WE NOW SEE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA...AND FOR THE MOMENT...
RELATIVE DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. THIS AIS ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOUDS COULD NOT BE MORE CHALLENGING TODAY. IN ONCE SENSE...
STEADY CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN REALITY...BUT NOT IN COMPUTER
MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z TO SHOW CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH LIFT AND INCREASING
MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER COOL AIR...WE MAY GENERATE MORE
CLOUDS... EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...SOUTH? I-80? NORTH? SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST
OVER OUR WEST 1/2 OR OUR SOUTH...SO I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HOLD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT
THAT COULD EASILY BE OFF BY SEVERAL COUNTIES...IN A WAY...I AM
CERTAIN AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CLOUDS GO...SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTS 40S AND EVEN 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH 100%
CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORY OVER SNOW COVER...THE FAR NORTH MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 30S...VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER HEAD...ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER SEEMS WARRANTED...BUT
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW WAVES OF
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LOW. IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAWN BEFORE CAA
DRAGS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING...SO I AM THINKING THAT
WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...BUT IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD BE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL WALK OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OR EVEN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA JUST THROUGH 15Z
THU IN WAKE OF EXITING CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
TOP-DOWN COOLING ONGOING MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLET MIX IN THE FAR EAST THRU MID MORNING. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THU WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SFC WIND SURGE...WITH
MIXING-DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES IN TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND PLAINS RIDGE LOBE...SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE AN IN-RUSH OF
COOLING AIR MASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DELAY
IN THE REAL COOLER PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE
WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD THU NIGHT FOR A SFC WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE...IF SKIES
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR EXTENT OF INCOMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH HALF OR MORE...AROUND 20 IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION UNDER PASSING HIGH
COMPLEX ON FRI...WEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS AND COOL START TO THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF...TO
MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. QUICK TEMP DROP OFF FRI
EVENING AFTER SUNSET...THEN IT WILL BE UP TO THE TIMING OF THE
START OF BL RETURN FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR
A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE INTO SAT MORNING. ANY FURTHER DELAY IN
THAT PROCESS WILL MAKE THE ADVERTISED LOWS STILL TOO MILD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MANY OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HEAVILY USED GFS AND ECMWF...PHASE THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIGGING UPPER TROF ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GRT BSN
UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE DEVELOPED LLVL
LOW AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING UP TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AN ENHANCED MILD/MOIST
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERRUNNING IT ACRS
THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES MAYBE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON...BULK OF
THERMAL PROFILES ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT FRIGID...STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A WET SNOW EVENT. POSSIBLY A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT AT
TIMES...AS WELL AS A RATHER LONG DURATION/SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING/BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 00Z RUN
ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE DVN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD...ENOUGH SO TO MAKE FOR A LONG DURATION ADVISORY
OR EVEN A 24 HR WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. DEEPENING ON THE MAIN SFC LOW
TRACK...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPOUNDING THE WINTERY
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD...AND MUCH
ATTENTION WILL HAVE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE COMING MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION...PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES TO
BE WORKED OUT. ALSO AFTER WHATEVER TYPE OF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN
EXITS THE REGION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY.
WITH FRESH AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...A COLD WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN POINTING TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...
MONDAY MAY BE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN
THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT THE
COLD TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY EVOLUTION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT FLATTENING FLOW BY TUE WITH
SOME TEMP MODIFICATION INTO MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT EMBEDDED IN THAT TUE TIME-FRAME AS WELL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ELEVATED WAA PUSH.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER CHALLENGING SET OF AVIATION FORECASTS IS BEING ISSUED
TODAY...AS SKIES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF RAPIDLY CLEARING THE LOW
STRATUS OVER THE REGION. BRL IS ALREADY VFR AND WILL REMAIN
SO...WHILE MLI WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CID BY 16Z APPEARS ON
TARGET...WHILE DBQ MAY REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTH WINDS TODAY...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...SOME
LOW CIGS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. I AM INTRODUCING A
LOWER CONFIDENCE VFR PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 06Z/29 TONIGHT...AS ONCE WE GET INTO CLEAR SKIES WE SHOULD
HEAT UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE NO
CLEARING AT ALL TODAY...KEEPING US LIFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO I
HAVE NO COMPUTER GUIDANCE TO ASSIST THIS DECISION...BUT REALITY
SUPPORTS IT.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 281130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
530 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CLEARING IS SPREADING NORTH FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT TO TODAYS HIGHS. I HAVE CLEARED SKIES TO MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGHS TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA. OVER SNOW...I RETAINED HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE CLOUDS
ARE ERASED FROM THE SKY...MEANWHILE...MODELS HAVE NO IDEA THIS IS
HAPPENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

YESTERDAYS PERSISTENT PROBLEMATIC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAYS NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING THIS CLOUD COVER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...
WE NOW SEE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA...AND FOR THE MOMENT...
RELATIVE DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. THIS AIS ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOUDS COULD NOT BE MORE CHALLENGING TODAY. IN ONCE SENSE...
STEADY CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN REALITY...BUT NOT IN COMPUTER
MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z TO SHOW CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH LIFT AND INCREASING
MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER COOL AIR...WE MAY GENERATE MORE
CLOUDS... EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...SOUTH? I-80? NORTH? SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST
OVER OUR WEST 1/2 OR OUR SOUTH...SO I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HOLD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT
THAT COULD EASILY BE OFF BY SEVERAL COUNTIES...IN A WAY...I AM
CERTAIN AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CLOUDS GO...SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTS 40S AND EVEN 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH 100%
CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORY OVER SNOW COVER...THE FAR NORTH MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 30S...VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER HEAD...ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER SEEMS WARRANTED...BUT
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW WAVES OF
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LOW. IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAWN BEFORE CAA
DRAGS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING...SO I AM THINKING THAT
WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...BUT IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD BE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL WALK OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OR EVEN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA JUST THROUGH 15Z
THU IN WAKE OF EXITING CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
TOP-DOWN COOLING ONGOING MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLET MIX IN THE FAR EAST THRU MID MORNING. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THU WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SFC WIND SURGE...WITH
MIXING-DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES IN TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND PLAINS RIDGE LOBE...SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE AN IN-RUSH OF
COOLING AIR MASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DELAY
IN THE REAL COOLER PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE
WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD THU NIGHT FOR A SFC WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE...IF SKIES
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR EXTENT OF INCOMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH HALF OR MORE...AROUND 20 IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION UNDER PASSING HIGH
COMPLEX ON FRI...WEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS AND COOL START TO THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF...TO
MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. QUICK TEMP DROP OFF FRI
EVENING AFTER SUNSET...THEN IT WILL BE UP TO THE TIMING OF THE
START OF BL RETURN FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR
A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE INTO SAT MORNING. ANY FURTHER DELAY IN
THAT PROCESS WILL MAKE THE ADVERTISED LOWS STILL TOO MILD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MANY OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HEAVILY USED GFS AND ECMWF...PHASE THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIGGING UPPER TROF ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GRT BSN
UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE DEVELOPED LLVL
LOW AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING UP TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AN ENHANCED MILD/MOIST
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERRUNNING IT ACRS
THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES MAYBE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON...BULK OF
THERMAL PROFILES ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT FRIGID...STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A WET SNOW EVENT. POSSIBLY A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT AT
TIMES...AS WELL AS A RATHER LONG DURATION/SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING/BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 00Z RUN
ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE DVN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD...ENOUGH SO TO MAKE FOR A LONG DURATION ADVISORY
OR EVEN A 24 HR WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. DEEPENING ON THE MAIN SFC LOW
TRACK...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPOUNDING THE WINTERY
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD...AND MUCH
ATTENTION WILL HAVE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE COMING MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION...PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES TO
BE WORKED OUT. ALSO AFTER WHATEVER TYPE OF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN
EXITS THE REGION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY.
WITH FRESH AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...A COLD WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN POINTING TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...
MONDAY MAY BE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN
THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT THE
COLD TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY EVOLUTION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT FLATTENING FLOW BY TUE WITH
SOME TEMP MODIFICATION INTO MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT EMBEDDED IN THAT TUE TIME-FRAME AS WELL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ELEVATED WAA PUSH.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER CHALLENGING SET OF AVIATION FORECASTS IS BEING ISSUED
TODAY...AS SKIES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF RAPIDLY CLEARING THE LOW
STRATUS OVER THE REGION. BRL IS ALREADY VFR AND WILL REMAIN
SO...WHILE MLI WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CID BY 16Z APPEARS ON
TARGET...WHILE DBQ MAY REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTH WINDS TODAY...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...SOME
LOW CIGS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. I AM INTRODUCING A
LOWER CONFIDENCE VFR PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY BETWEEN 14Z
AND 06Z/29 TONIGHT...AS ONCE WE GET INTO CLEAR SKIES WE SHOULD
HEAT UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT LOW CLOUDS. THAT SAID...MODELS HAVE NO
CLEARING AT ALL TODAY...KEEPING US LIFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO I
HAVE NO COMPUTER GUIDANCE TO ASSIST THIS DECISION...BUT REALITY
SUPPORTS IT.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281103
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
503 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CLEARING IS SPREADING NORTH FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT TO TODAYS HIGHS. I HAVE CLEARED SKIES TO MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGHS TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA. OVER SNOW...I RETAINED HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE CLOUDS
ARE ERASED FROM THE SKY...MEANWHILE...MODELS HAVE NO IDEA THIS IS
HAPPENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

YESTERDAYS PERSISTENT PROBLEMATIC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAYS NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING THIS CLOUD COVER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...
WE NOW SEE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA...AND FOR THE MOMENT...
RELATIVE DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. THIS AIS ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOUDS COULD NOT BE MORE CHALLENGING TODAY. IN ONCE SENSE...
STEADY CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN REALITY...BUT NOT IN COMPUTER
MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z TO SHOW CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH LIFT AND INCREASING
MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER COOL AIR...WE MAY GENERATE MORE
CLOUDS... EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...SOUTH? I-80? NORTH? SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST
OVER OUR WEST 1/2 OR OUR SOUTH...SO I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HOLD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT
THAT COULD EASILY BE OFF BY SEVERAL COUNTIES...IN A WAY...I AM
CERTAIN AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CLOUDS GO...SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTS 40S AND EVEN 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH 100%
CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORY OVER SNOW COVER...THE FAR NORTH MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 30S...VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER HEAD...ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER SEEMS WARRANTED...BUT
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW WAVES OF
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LOW. IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAWN BEFORE CAA
DRAGS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING...SO I AM THINKING THAT
WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...BUT IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD BE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL WALK OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OR EVEN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA JUST THROUGH 15Z
THU IN WAKE OF EXITING CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
TOP-DOWN COOLING ONGOING MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLET MIX IN THE FAR EAST THRU MID MORNING. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THU WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SFC WIND SURGE...WITH
MIXING-DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES IN TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND PLAINS RIDGE LOBE...SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE AN IN-RUSH OF
COOLING AIR ASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DELAY
IN THE REAL COOLER PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGH SIN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD THU NIGHT FOR A SFC WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE...IF SKIES
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR EXTENT OF INCOMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH HALF OR MORE...AROUND 20 IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION UNDER PASSING HIGH COMPLEX ON
FRI...WEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS AND COOL START TO THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF...TO MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. QUICK TEMP DROP OFF FRI EVENING AFTER
SUNSET...THEN IT WILL BE UP TO THE TIMING OF THE START OF BL RETURN
FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR A STEADY TO SLOW
TEMP RISE INTO SAT MORNING. ANY FURTHER DELAY IN THAT PROCESS WILL
MAKE THE ADVERTISED LOWS STILL TOO MILD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MANY OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HEAVILY USED GFS AND ECMWF...PHASE THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIGGING UPPER TROF ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GRT BSN
UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE DEVELOPED LLVL
LOW AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING UP TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AN ENHANCED MILD/MOIST
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERRUNNING IT ACRS
THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES MAYBE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON...BULK OF
THERMAL PROFILES ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT FRIGID...STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A WET SNOW EVENT. POSSIBLY A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT AT
TIMES...AS WELL AS A RATHER LONG DURATION/SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING/BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 00Z RUN
ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE DVN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD...ENOUGH SO TO MAKE FOR A LONG DURATION ADVISORY
OR EVEN A 24 HR WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. DEEPENING ON THE MAIN SFC LOW
TRACK...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPOUNDING THE WINTERY
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD...AND MUCH
ATTENTION WILL HAVE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE COMING MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION...PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES TO
BE WORKED OUT. ALSO AFTER WHATEVER TYPE OF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN
EXITS THE REGION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY.
WITH FRESH AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...A COLD WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN POINTING TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...
MONDAY MAY BE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN
THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT THE
COLD TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY EVOLUTION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT FLATTENING FLOW BY TUE WITH
SOME TEMP MODIFICATION INTO MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT EMBEDDED IN THAT TUE TIME-FRAME AS WELL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ELEVATED WAA PUSH.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING BKN030 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 281103
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
503 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CLEARING IS SPREADING NORTH FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT TO TODAYS HIGHS. I HAVE CLEARED SKIES TO MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 THIS MORNING AND INCREASED HIGHS TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA. OVER SNOW...I RETAINED HIGHS
CLOSER TO THE LOWER 40S. MORE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE CLOUDS
ARE ERASED FROM THE SKY...MEANWHILE...MODELS HAVE NO IDEA THIS IS
HAPPENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

YESTERDAYS PERSISTENT PROBLEMATIC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAYS NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING THIS CLOUD COVER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...
WE NOW SEE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA...AND FOR THE MOMENT...
RELATIVE DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. THIS AIS ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOUDS COULD NOT BE MORE CHALLENGING TODAY. IN ONCE SENSE...
STEADY CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN REALITY...BUT NOT IN COMPUTER
MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z TO SHOW CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH LIFT AND INCREASING
MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER COOL AIR...WE MAY GENERATE MORE
CLOUDS... EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...SOUTH? I-80? NORTH? SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST
OVER OUR WEST 1/2 OR OUR SOUTH...SO I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HOLD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT
THAT COULD EASILY BE OFF BY SEVERAL COUNTIES...IN A WAY...I AM
CERTAIN AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CLOUDS GO...SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTS 40S AND EVEN 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH 100%
CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORY OVER SNOW COVER...THE FAR NORTH MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 30S...VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER HEAD...ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER SEEMS WARRANTED...BUT
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW WAVES OF
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LOW. IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAWN BEFORE CAA
DRAGS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING...SO I AM THINKING THAT
WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...BUT IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD BE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL WALK OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OR EVEN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA JUST THROUGH 15Z
THU IN WAKE OF EXITING CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
TOP-DOWN COOLING ONGOING MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLET MIX IN THE FAR EAST THRU MID MORNING. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THU WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SFC WIND SURGE...WITH
MIXING-DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES IN TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND PLAINS RIDGE LOBE...SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE AN IN-RUSH OF
COOLING AIR ASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DELAY
IN THE REAL COOLER PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGH SIN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD THU NIGHT FOR A SFC WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE...IF SKIES
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR EXTENT OF INCOMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH HALF OR MORE...AROUND 20 IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION UNDER PASSING HIGH COMPLEX ON
FRI...WEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS AND COOL START TO THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF...TO MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. QUICK TEMP DROP OFF FRI EVENING AFTER
SUNSET...THEN IT WILL BE UP TO THE TIMING OF THE START OF BL RETURN
FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR A STEADY TO SLOW
TEMP RISE INTO SAT MORNING. ANY FURTHER DELAY IN THAT PROCESS WILL
MAKE THE ADVERTISED LOWS STILL TOO MILD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MANY OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HEAVILY USED GFS AND ECMWF...PHASE THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIGGING UPPER TROF ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GRT BSN
UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE DEVELOPED LLVL
LOW AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING UP TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AN ENHANCED MILD/MOIST
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERRUNNING IT ACRS
THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES MAYBE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON...BULK OF
THERMAL PROFILES ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT FRIGID...STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A WET SNOW EVENT. POSSIBLY A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT AT
TIMES...AS WELL AS A RATHER LONG DURATION/SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING/BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 00Z RUN
ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE DVN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD...ENOUGH SO TO MAKE FOR A LONG DURATION ADVISORY
OR EVEN A 24 HR WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. DEEPENING ON THE MAIN SFC LOW
TRACK...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPOUNDING THE WINTERY
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD...AND MUCH
ATTENTION WILL HAVE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE COMING MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION...PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES TO
BE WORKED OUT. ALSO AFTER WHATEVER TYPE OF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN
EXITS THE REGION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY.
WITH FRESH AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...A COLD WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN POINTING TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...
MONDAY MAY BE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN
THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT THE
COLD TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY EVOLUTION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT FLATTENING FLOW BY TUE WITH
SOME TEMP MODIFICATION INTO MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT EMBEDDED IN THAT TUE TIME-FRAME AS WELL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ELEVATED WAA PUSH.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING BKN030 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 280928
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

YESTERDAYS PERSISTENT PROBLEMATIC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAYS NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING THIS CLOUD COVER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...
WE NOW SEE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA...AND FOR THE MOMENT...
RELATIVE DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. THIS AIS ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOUDS COULD NOT BE MORE CHALLENGING TODAY. IN ONCE SENSE...
STEADY CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN REALITY...BUT NOT IN COMPUTER
MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z TO SHOW CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH LIFT AND INCREASING
MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER COOL AIR...WE MAY GENERATE MORE
CLOUDS... EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...SOUTH? I-80? NORTH? SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST
OVER OUR WEST 1/2 OR OUR SOUTH...SO I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HOLD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT
THAT COULD EASILY BE OFF BY SEVERAL COUNTIES...IN A WAY...I AM
CERTAIN AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CLOUDS GO...SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTS 40S AND EVEN 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH 100%
CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORY OVER SNOW COVER...THE FAR NORTH MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 30S...VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER HEAD...ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER SEEMS WARRANTED...BUT
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW WAVES OF
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LOW. IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAWN BEFORE CAA
DRAGS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING...SO I AM THINKING THAT
WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...BUT IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD BE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL WALK OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OR EVEN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA JUST THROUGH 15Z
THU IN WAKE OF EXITING CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
TOP-DOWN COOLING ONGOING MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLET MIX IN THE FAR EAST THRU MID MORNING. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THU WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SFC WIND SURGE...WITH
MIXING-DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES IN TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND PLAINS RIDGE LOBE...SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE AN IN-RUSH OF
COOLING AIR ASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DELAY
IN THE REAL COOLER PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGH SIN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD THU NIGHT FOR A SFC WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE...IF SKIES
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR EXTENT OF INCOMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH HALF OR MORE...AROUND 20 IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION UNDER PASSING HIGH COMPLEX ON
FRI...WEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS AND COOL START TO THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF...TO MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. QUICK TEMP DROP OFF FRI EVENING AFTER
SUNSET...THEN IT WILL BE UP TO THE TIMING OF THE START OF BL RETURN
FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR A STEADY TO SLOW
TEMP RISE INTO SAT MORNING. ANY FURTHER DELAY IN THAT PROCESS WILL
MAKE THE ADVERTISED LOWS STILL TOO MILD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MANY OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HEAVILY USED GFS AND ECMWF...PHASE THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIGGING UPPER TROF ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GRT BSN
UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE DEVELOPED LLVL
LOW AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING UP TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AN ENHANCED MILD/MOIST
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERRUNNING IT ACRS
THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES MAYBE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON...BULK OF
THERMAL PROFILES ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT FRIGID...STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A WET SNOW EVENT. POSSIBLY A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT AT
TIMES...AS WELL AS A RATHER LONG DURATION/SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING/BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 00Z RUN
ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE DVN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD...ENOUGH SO TO MAKE FOR A LONG DURATION ADVISORY
OR EVEN A 24 HR WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. DEEPENING ON THE MAIN SFC LOW
TRACK...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPOUNDING THE WINTERY
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD...AND MUCH
ATTENTION WILL HAVE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE COMING MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION...PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES TO
BE WORKED OUT. ALSO AFTER WHATEVER TYPE OF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN
EXITS THE REGION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY.
WITH FRESH AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...A COLD WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN POINTING TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...
MONDAY MAY BE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN
THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT THE
COLD TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY EVOLUTION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT FLATTENING FLOW BY TUE WITH
SOME TEMP MODIFICATION INTO MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT EMBEDDED IN THAT TUE TIME-FRAME AS WELL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ELEVATED WAA PUSH.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING BKN030 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 280928
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

YESTERDAYS PERSISTENT PROBLEMATIC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE YESTERDAYS NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING THIS CLOUD COVER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...
WE NOW SEE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAA...AND FOR THE MOMENT...
RELATIVE DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION. THIS AIS ALLOWING THE STRATUS TO
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER ILLINOIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CLOUDS COULD NOT BE MORE CHALLENGING TODAY. IN ONCE SENSE...
STEADY CLEARING IS OCCURRING IN REALITY...BUT NOT IN COMPUTER
MODEL DATA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA COUNTIES
THROUGH 12Z TO SHOW CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WITH LIFT AND INCREASING
MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE OVER COOL AIR...WE MAY GENERATE MORE
CLOUDS... EFFECTIVELY HOLDING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...SOUTH? I-80? NORTH? SNOW COVER DOES NOT EXIST
OVER OUR WEST 1/2 OR OUR SOUTH...SO I AM INCLINED TO THINK THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO HOLD NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT
THAT COULD EASILY BE OFF BY SEVERAL COUNTIES...IN A WAY...I AM
CERTAIN AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO FINE TUNE THIS
FORECAST. AS THE CLOUDS GO...SO WILL TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPORTS 40S AND EVEN 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WITH 100%
CLOUDS AND WIND TRAJECTORY OVER SNOW COVER...THE FAR NORTH MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 30S...VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER HEAD...ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER SEEMS WARRANTED...BUT
AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FEW WAVES OF
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE LOW. IT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL NEARLY DAWN BEFORE CAA
DRAGS OUR TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING...SO I AM THINKING THAT
WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...BUT IF IT OCCURRED IT
WOULD BE ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL WALK OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OUT OF THE EASTERN HALF OR EVEN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA JUST THROUGH 15Z
THU IN WAKE OF EXITING CYCLONE ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS.
TOP-DOWN COOLING ONGOING MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLET MIX IN THE FAR EAST THRU MID MORNING. BUT THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THU WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SFC WIND SURGE...WITH
MIXING-DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES IN TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING LOW AND PLAINS RIDGE LOBE...SUGGESTING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE AN IN-RUSH OF
COOLING AIR ASS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DEEP MIXING AND SOME DELAY
IN THE REAL COOLER PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGH SIN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD THU NIGHT FOR A SFC WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE...IF SKIES
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR EXTENT OF INCOMING AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOWS
WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH HALF OR MORE...AROUND 20 IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. DESPITE SOME INSOLATION UNDER PASSING HIGH COMPLEX ON
FRI...WEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS AND COOL START TO THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF...TO MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA. QUICK TEMP DROP OFF FRI EVENING AFTER
SUNSET...THEN IT WILL BE UP TO THE TIMING OF THE START OF BL RETURN
FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR A STEADY TO SLOW
TEMP RISE INTO SAT MORNING. ANY FURTHER DELAY IN THAT PROCESS WILL
MAKE THE ADVERTISED LOWS STILL TOO MILD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MANY OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE HEAVILY USED GFS AND ECMWF...PHASE THE NORTHERN
STREAM DIGGING UPPER TROF ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GRT BSN
UPPER LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...IT WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE DEVELOPED LLVL
LOW AND INVERTED TROF COMPLEX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ROLLING UP TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AN ENHANCED MILD/MOIST
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERRUNNING IT ACRS
THE MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. BESIDES MAYBE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH SAT AFTERNOON...BULK OF
THERMAL PROFILES ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT FRIGID...STILL COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A WET SNOW EVENT. POSSIBLY A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT AT
TIMES...AS WELL AS A RATHER LONG DURATION/SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING/BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE 00Z RUN
ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE DVN CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD...ENOUGH SO TO MAKE FOR A LONG DURATION ADVISORY
OR EVEN A 24 HR WARNING CRITERIA EVENT. DEEPENING ON THE MAIN SFC LOW
TRACK...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST
SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING COMPOUNDING THE WINTERY
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD...AND MUCH
ATTENTION WILL HAVE TO BE FOCUSED ON THE COMING MODEL RUNS OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR SYSTEM EVOLUTION...PHASING AND TIMING ISSUES TO
BE WORKED OUT. ALSO AFTER WHATEVER TYPE OF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THEN
EXITS THE REGION...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGH INTO MONDAY.
WITH FRESH AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL NEW SNOW COVER...A COLD WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE BREWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AGAIN POINTING TO THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...
MONDAY MAY BE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DAY WITH HIGHS HELD IN
THE TEENS OR EVEN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT THE
COLD TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE AND UPPER JET
ENERGY EVOLUTION SUGGEST SOMEWHAT FLATTENING FLOW BY TUE WITH
SOME TEMP MODIFICATION INTO MID WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SNOW
EVENT EMBEDDED IN THAT TUE TIME-FRAME AS WELL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ELEVATED WAA PUSH.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING BKN030 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 280619
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING BKN030 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 280619
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING BKN030 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 280619
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING BKN030 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 280619
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. STILL QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY A PREVAILING BKN030 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS WILL BE COMMON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 280034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL HANDLING OF STRATUS SHIELD IN PLACE AT ALL
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE GONE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC IN CLEARING OUT THE MVFR CIGS. HAVE DELAYED CLEARING
AT KDBQ/KCID/KMLI UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY...14Z AT KBRL. SOME LIGHT MVFR
FOG MOST FAVORED AT KCID OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 280034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL HANDLING OF STRATUS SHIELD IN PLACE AT ALL
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE GONE A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC IN CLEARING OUT THE MVFR CIGS. HAVE DELAYED CLEARING
AT KDBQ/KCID/KMLI UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY...14Z AT KBRL. SOME LIGHT MVFR
FOG MOST FAVORED AT KCID OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 272105
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. THE
EXCEPTION IS KBRL WHERE CONDS SHOULD BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE









000
FXUS63 KDVN 272105
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THE DVN CWA SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS EXCEPT OUR FAR SW
COUNTIES. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB WITH
LITTLE MIXING AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. THE CLEARING LINE TO
OUR WEST WAS EDGING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. IN NORTHEAST IL SKIES
WERE ALSO CLEARING. DUE TO THE STRATUS THIS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S IN OUR FAR SW.

ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES WERE FOUND IN THE PLAINS WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING CLOUD FORECAST WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EDGES AS CLEARING PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IA
AND NORTHERN MO. ALSO CLEARING WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST IL BUT
IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR EAST. EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS FAR NW IL TO THE MID 20S SW.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW
BETTER MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT. 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS SO SURFACE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME...MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. NICE WARMING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10 TO 12C IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO +4C IN
NW IL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FAR NW
IL TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.  THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING WITH THIS LATEST PACKAGE.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MAY HAVE A LONG DURATION ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE
TRANSVERSING THE FLOW.  A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW
WARMER THROUGHOUT THE LAYER...SUGGESTING DRIZZLE AND RAIN...INSTEAD
OF FZDZ. LOOKING AT MODELS...THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FIRST WAVE AND POPS QPF ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FROPA.  THE REST OF THE
MODELS KEEP IT NORTH AND US DRY. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THAT THE CLOUD LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE
WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN.  THINK THAT WITH H85 WAA...GOOD CVA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD AIR SURGES IN...A
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH.  BEFORE THE COLD AIR BECOMES
COMPLETELY ENTRENCHED THE CHANCE FOR POPS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA.  NO ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THIS WEEKEND...AN OVERRUNNING...LONG DURATION EVENT STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL LAST 24 HOURS AND
EVEN LONGER.  PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH LESS THAN
0.40 OF AN INCH LIQUID QPF BEING FORECAST TODAY.  THE GFS SPINS UP A
LOW TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY WHERE...THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEPS THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS EVENT WILL NEED TO BE PAID ATTENTION
TO IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AS COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AFTER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. THE
EXCEPTION IS KBRL WHERE CONDS SHOULD BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. BECOMING
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE










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