Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KDVN 312042
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
342 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT LINKED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ONTARIO REACHED ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI...SW ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI...NORTHERN IL AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS
EASTERN IL AND IA AT MID AFTERNOON. DUE TO GULF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW...THE FRONT WAS ACTING MAINLY AS A SURFACE DRY
LINE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE E-W
BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB...WHERE THE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MEETING UP WITH
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE. STRONGER MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH A
FEW UPPER 80S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT.
TONIGHT...BROAD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECTED TO BE
ROUGHLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER INTO W CENTRAL IL...MAY
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS NEGATIVE MID
LEVEL THETAE LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO INDICATED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS...BUT GENERALLY STAYING SOUTH OR SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. A SEPARATE AREA OF AT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS CARRIED IN THE FAR NORTH...WHERE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE MID LEVELS TO  TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH MINS AS LOW AS NEAR 60 IN THE
DRIEST AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LIGHTER
WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EVENING. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS...
AND ACCOUNTING FOR WARMING ALOFT...WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SW. HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BEGIN CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...WHERE
DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN DEWPOINTS TO  UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. WEAKER MIXING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP VALUES
IN A SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE LOWER TO MID 60S RANGE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BULK OF 12Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED LLVL FRONT WILL ACT UPON
MORE OPTIMUM RETURN FLOW FOR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION TO THE
NORTHWEST ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN SAT EVENING.
MCS FORCING TOOLS AND OTHER CONVECTIVE SUPPORT PARAMETERS MAXIMIZE
MORE ACRS MN AND INTO WI WHERE RESULTANT MCS WILL MORE LIKELY
PROPAGATE ACRS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUT OTHER TAILING
FORCING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST STILL CAPPED AND DRY. BUT
THIS SHOULD ERODE FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR INCREASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LATEST PROGS SUGGEST THE
BETTER LATE NIGHT LLJ CONVERGENCE OCCURS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS
WI...WITH VEERING LLVL FLOW LOCALLY. SHEAR PROFILES DURING THIS MAX
COVERAGE TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT MARGINAL AND ONLY SEE THE CHC FOR
ISOLATED SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE STORMS
CLUSTERS MANAGE TO OCCUR MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SUNDAY VERY UNCERTAIN WITH THE SAME OLD SCENARIO OF HOW LONG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW LINGERS DURING THE DAY TO LIMIT
HEATING AND INSTABILITY BUILD UP. THE MAIN INCOMING FRONT NOT
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACRS THE MS RVR UNTIL GENERALLY AROUND MID
SUNDAY EVENING OR SO. DEEPER SHEAR PROFILES MORE ROBUST BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FULL ON
PRE-FRONTAL HEATING MUCH OF THE CWA MAY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME SITES HITTING 90. THIS COMBINED WITH POOLING SFC
DPTS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 70S MAY MAKE FOR SBCAPES OF 3500-4500+
J/KG BAY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE COULD BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS OPPOSED TO SAT NIGHT. CURRENT
ASSESSMENT MAKES FOR THE SCENARIO WHERE A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT OR WHERE FRONT INTERACTS WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RIGHT OVERHEAD OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CWA
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THEM THEN TAKING OFF ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF IL
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WITH DAMAGING WIND PRIMARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST OF MONDAY MAY BE A POST-FRONTAL DRY
AND LESS HUMID DAY UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT
RETURN FLOW WILL LOOK TO ORGANIZE NOCTURNALLY UP THE PLAINS AND MO
RVR VALLEY MON NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION TO BLEED INTO PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA AS THE MON NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING PERIOD PROGRESSES. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS
AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE WARM DOME GATHERING
STRENGTH AND BULGING NORTH UP THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS COULD PLACE THE DVN CWA ON THIS FEATURE/S
NORTHEASTERN FLANK AND DUMPING ZONE FOR RIDGE-RIDING MCS/S OR UNDER
A PORTION OF THE POTENTIAL RING OF FIRE PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS
NO MERCER AND KEEPS THE STORM CLUSTERS COMING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH
WITH GRT LKS L/W TROFFINISS-NORTHEASTERLY PUSH THAT THE STORM TRACK
GETS SHUNTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA BY LATER WED. BUT
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DAILY CHC POPS WILL HAVE TO RIDE AT THIS POINT.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING MAINLY DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION UNTIL FRI NIGHT WHEN THE PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE WEST AND FLATTENED FLOW USHERS AN MCS
ACRS IA. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE STORM TRACK GOING UNTIL LATER FRI
WHEN IT UNDERGOES PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH SEASONABLY DEEP GRT LKS
TROFFINESS AND SHARP RIDGE ACRS THE ROCKIES...ALLOWING DRY WX AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO SPILL DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AGAIN WITH SUCH MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES. THE PROBABILITY FOR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG OR
HAZE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 312042
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
342 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT LINKED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ONTARIO REACHED ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI...SW ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI...NORTHERN IL AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS
EASTERN IL AND IA AT MID AFTERNOON. DUE TO GULF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW...THE FRONT WAS ACTING MAINLY AS A SURFACE DRY
LINE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE E-W
BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB...WHERE THE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MEETING UP WITH
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE. STRONGER MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH A
FEW UPPER 80S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT.
TONIGHT...BROAD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECTED TO BE
ROUGHLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER INTO W CENTRAL IL...MAY
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS NEGATIVE MID
LEVEL THETAE LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO INDICATED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS...BUT GENERALLY STAYING SOUTH OR SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. A SEPARATE AREA OF AT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS CARRIED IN THE FAR NORTH...WHERE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE MID LEVELS TO  TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH MINS AS LOW AS NEAR 60 IN THE
DRIEST AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LIGHTER
WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EVENING. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS...
AND ACCOUNTING FOR WARMING ALOFT...WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SW. HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BEGIN CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...WHERE
DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN DEWPOINTS TO  UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. WEAKER MIXING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP VALUES
IN A SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE LOWER TO MID 60S RANGE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BULK OF 12Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED LLVL FRONT WILL ACT UPON
MORE OPTIMUM RETURN FLOW FOR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION TO THE
NORTHWEST ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN SAT EVENING.
MCS FORCING TOOLS AND OTHER CONVECTIVE SUPPORT PARAMETERS MAXIMIZE
MORE ACRS MN AND INTO WI WHERE RESULTANT MCS WILL MORE LIKELY
PROPAGATE ACRS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUT OTHER TAILING
FORCING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST STILL CAPPED AND DRY. BUT
THIS SHOULD ERODE FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR INCREASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LATEST PROGS SUGGEST THE
BETTER LATE NIGHT LLJ CONVERGENCE OCCURS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS
WI...WITH VEERING LLVL FLOW LOCALLY. SHEAR PROFILES DURING THIS MAX
COVERAGE TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT MARGINAL AND ONLY SEE THE CHC FOR
ISOLATED SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE STORMS
CLUSTERS MANAGE TO OCCUR MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SUNDAY VERY UNCERTAIN WITH THE SAME OLD SCENARIO OF HOW LONG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW LINGERS DURING THE DAY TO LIMIT
HEATING AND INSTABILITY BUILD UP. THE MAIN INCOMING FRONT NOT
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACRS THE MS RVR UNTIL GENERALLY AROUND MID
SUNDAY EVENING OR SO. DEEPER SHEAR PROFILES MORE ROBUST BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FULL ON
PRE-FRONTAL HEATING MUCH OF THE CWA MAY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME SITES HITTING 90. THIS COMBINED WITH POOLING SFC
DPTS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 70S MAY MAKE FOR SBCAPES OF 3500-4500+
J/KG BAY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE COULD BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS OPPOSED TO SAT NIGHT. CURRENT
ASSESSMENT MAKES FOR THE SCENARIO WHERE A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT OR WHERE FRONT INTERACTS WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RIGHT OVERHEAD OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CWA
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THEM THEN TAKING OFF ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF IL
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WITH DAMAGING WIND PRIMARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST OF MONDAY MAY BE A POST-FRONTAL DRY
AND LESS HUMID DAY UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT
RETURN FLOW WILL LOOK TO ORGANIZE NOCTURNALLY UP THE PLAINS AND MO
RVR VALLEY MON NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION TO BLEED INTO PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA AS THE MON NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING PERIOD PROGRESSES. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS
AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE WARM DOME GATHERING
STRENGTH AND BULGING NORTH UP THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS COULD PLACE THE DVN CWA ON THIS FEATURE/S
NORTHEASTERN FLANK AND DUMPING ZONE FOR RIDGE-RIDING MCS/S OR UNDER
A PORTION OF THE POTENTIAL RING OF FIRE PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS
NO MERCER AND KEEPS THE STORM CLUSTERS COMING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH
WITH GRT LKS L/W TROFFINISS-NORTHEASTERLY PUSH THAT THE STORM TRACK
GETS SHUNTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA BY LATER WED. BUT
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DAILY CHC POPS WILL HAVE TO RIDE AT THIS POINT.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING MAINLY DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION UNTIL FRI NIGHT WHEN THE PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE WEST AND FLATTENED FLOW USHERS AN MCS
ACRS IA. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE STORM TRACK GOING UNTIL LATER FRI
WHEN IT UNDERGOES PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH SEASONABLY DEEP GRT LKS
TROFFINESS AND SHARP RIDGE ACRS THE ROCKIES...ALLOWING DRY WX AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO SPILL DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AGAIN WITH SUCH MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES. THE PROBABILITY FOR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG OR
HAZE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 312042
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
342 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT LINKED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ONTARIO REACHED ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI...SW ACROSS SOUTHERN
LAKE MI...NORTHERN IL AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS
EASTERN IL AND IA AT MID AFTERNOON. DUE TO GULF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW...THE FRONT WAS ACTING MAINLY AS A SURFACE DRY
LINE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE E-W
BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB...WHERE THE WEAK BOUNDARY WAS MEETING UP WITH
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE. STRONGER MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHILE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH A
FEW UPPER 80S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT.
TONIGHT...BROAD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECTED TO BE
ROUGHLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER INTO W CENTRAL IL...MAY
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS NEGATIVE MID
LEVEL THETAE LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO INDICATED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS...BUT GENERALLY STAYING SOUTH OR SW OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL THUS CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE. A SEPARATE AREA OF AT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS CARRIED IN THE FAR NORTH...WHERE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE MID LEVELS TO  TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH MINS AS LOW AS NEAR 60 IN THE
DRIEST AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LIGHTER
WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EVENING. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS...
AND ACCOUNTING FOR WARMING ALOFT...WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SW. HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BEGIN CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...WHERE
DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN DEWPOINTS TO  UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. WEAKER MIXING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SHOULD KEEP VALUES
IN A SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE LOWER TO MID 60S RANGE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BULK OF 12Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED LLVL FRONT WILL ACT UPON
MORE OPTIMUM RETURN FLOW FOR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION TO THE
NORTHWEST ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN SAT EVENING.
MCS FORCING TOOLS AND OTHER CONVECTIVE SUPPORT PARAMETERS MAXIMIZE
MORE ACRS MN AND INTO WI WHERE RESULTANT MCS WILL MORE LIKELY
PROPAGATE ACRS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUT OTHER TAILING
FORCING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST STILL CAPPED AND DRY. BUT
THIS SHOULD ERODE FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR INCREASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BUT LATEST PROGS SUGGEST THE
BETTER LATE NIGHT LLJ CONVERGENCE OCCURS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS
WI...WITH VEERING LLVL FLOW LOCALLY. SHEAR PROFILES DURING THIS MAX
COVERAGE TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT MARGINAL AND ONLY SEE THE CHC FOR
ISOLATED SVR STORMS AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE STORMS
CLUSTERS MANAGE TO OCCUR MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SUNDAY VERY UNCERTAIN WITH THE SAME OLD SCENARIO OF HOW LONG
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW LINGERS DURING THE DAY TO LIMIT
HEATING AND INSTABILITY BUILD UP. THE MAIN INCOMING FRONT NOT
PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACRS THE MS RVR UNTIL GENERALLY AROUND MID
SUNDAY EVENING OR SO. DEEPER SHEAR PROFILES MORE ROBUST BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CAN CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FULL ON
PRE-FRONTAL HEATING MUCH OF THE CWA MAY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME SITES HITTING 90. THIS COMBINED WITH POOLING SFC
DPTS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 70S MAY MAKE FOR SBCAPES OF 3500-4500+
J/KG BAY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE COULD BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS OPPOSED TO SAT NIGHT. CURRENT
ASSESSMENT MAKES FOR THE SCENARIO WHERE A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT OR WHERE FRONT INTERACTS WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RIGHT OVERHEAD OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CWA
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THEM THEN TAKING OFF ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF IL
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WITH DAMAGING WIND PRIMARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST OF MONDAY MAY BE A POST-FRONTAL DRY
AND LESS HUMID DAY UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT
RETURN FLOW WILL LOOK TO ORGANIZE NOCTURNALLY UP THE PLAINS AND MO
RVR VALLEY MON NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR THE RESULTANT
CONVECTION TO BLEED INTO PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA AS THE MON NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING PERIOD PROGRESSES. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS
AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE WARM DOME GATHERING
STRENGTH AND BULGING NORTH UP THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS COULD PLACE THE DVN CWA ON THIS FEATURE/S
NORTHEASTERN FLANK AND DUMPING ZONE FOR RIDGE-RIDING MCS/S OR UNDER
A PORTION OF THE POTENTIAL RING OF FIRE PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS
NO MERCER AND KEEPS THE STORM CLUSTERS COMING ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH
WITH GRT LKS L/W TROFFINISS-NORTHEASTERLY PUSH THAT THE STORM TRACK
GETS SHUNTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA BY LATER WED. BUT
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DAILY CHC POPS WILL HAVE TO RIDE AT THIS POINT.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF WOULD BRING MAINLY DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION UNTIL FRI NIGHT WHEN THE PATTERN
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE WEST AND FLATTENED FLOW USHERS AN MCS
ACRS IA. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE STORM TRACK GOING UNTIL LATER FRI
WHEN IT UNDERGOES PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WITH SEASONABLY DEEP GRT LKS
TROFFINESS AND SHARP RIDGE ACRS THE ROCKIES...ALLOWING DRY WX AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO SPILL DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AGAIN WITH SUCH MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES. THE PROBABILITY FOR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG OR
HAZE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 311712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES. THE PROBABILITY FOR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG OR
HAZE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 311712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES. THE PROBABILITY FOR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG OR
HAZE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 311712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES. THE PROBABILITY FOR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG OR
HAZE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 311712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITIES. THE PROBABILITY FOR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING FOG OR
HAZE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 311116 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION ARE THE WINDS AND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
NW. THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON LANDING AT
AIRPORTS WITHOUT RUNWAYS INTO THE WIND. BRL HAS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD INTO THE TAF FOR BRL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 311116 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION ARE THE WINDS AND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
NW. THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON LANDING AT
AIRPORTS WITHOUT RUNWAYS INTO THE WIND. BRL HAS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD INTO THE TAF FOR BRL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 311116 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION ARE THE WINDS AND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
NW. THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES ON LANDING AT
AIRPORTS WITHOUT RUNWAYS INTO THE WIND. BRL HAS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD INTO THE TAF FOR BRL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 310847 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 310847 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 310847 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 310847 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 310825
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 310825
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 310825
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MO THIS AM AS LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. NW H5 FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS
THE AREA AND AS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A
H85 JET WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS
LOCATED FROM DULUTH TO JUST NORTH OF ABERDEEN SD. THIS SFC TROF
AND H85 JET WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PLAYERS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR POPS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FORCING
LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

SFC TROF...WEAK H85 CONVERGENCE AND DAY TIME HEATING LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN FORCINGS FOR PRECIP LATER TODAY. LARGE SCALE MODELS POP
QPF ACROSS SW AND S PORTIONS OF IA FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z TODAY. AS THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...OUR CHANCES FOR
POPS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. HIRES CAMS ALSO POP QPF ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WITHOUT STRONG FORCING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SCHC REALM.

H85 JET ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR BEING MIXED TO THE SFC AND THUS A DIFFICULT
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE DAY TODAY. REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH MODERATE WINDS....IT
SHOULD BE AN OVERALL BEAUTIFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ACTIVE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO RESULT IN PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES... AND EVENTUAL COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ATTENDANT TO MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AS NAM/GFS
DEEPER BY 2-4+ MB WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND SHARPER ON
DEFINITION OF WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND ATTENDANT CONVERGENCE... WHILE ECM WEAKER AND MORE
DIFFUSE. SPC HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 25-30+ KTS
OF SHEAR 0-6KM AGL. EXPECT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY 90 OR LOWER 90S ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF CWA DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SLOW DECAYING OF
LINGERING PRECIP PROCESSES SUNDAY AM AND POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT ON
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HERE AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR EML TO ADVECT INTO AREA AND CAP THINGS
OFF...ESPECIALLY IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION /MCS/ OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY
AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CHALLENGING DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS... BUT BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON TO GO ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THROUGH MIDWEEK IT APPEARS CWA WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN HEAT DOME OVER ROCKIES INTO PLAINS
AND UPPER LOW AND COOLER TEMPS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. DUE TO TIMING CHALLENGES AIDED BY MODEL SMOOTHING OF
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO CARRY DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF SEASONAL ON TEMPS BUT WITH TIME DO
ANTICIPATE A DOWNWARD TREND TO BELOW NORMAL WITH INFLUX OF COOLER
AIR IN WAKE OF PASSING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 310453
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 310453
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 310453
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT
DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE/LOW
COVERAGE. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 302332
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT
WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KTS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 302332
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT
WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KTS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302332
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME MIXING INTO STEADY WINDS ALOFT
WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN WITH WNW GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KTS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302027
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRI
MORNING. WEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SINKS TO THE SOUTH. A
WEAK WAVE ALOFT EMBEDDED IN STEERING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO
SCOOT INTO THE AREA/SOUTHEASTERN IA FRI MORNING BUT HOPEFULLY JUST
PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13Z-16Z OR SO.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302027
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRI
MORNING. WEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SINKS TO THE SOUTH. A
WEAK WAVE ALOFT EMBEDDED IN STEERING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO
SCOOT INTO THE AREA/SOUTHEASTERN IA FRI MORNING BUT HOPEFULLY JUST
PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13Z-16Z OR SO.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 302027
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRI
MORNING. WEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SINKS TO THE SOUTH. A
WEAK WAVE ALOFT EMBEDDED IN STEERING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO
SCOOT INTO THE AREA/SOUTHEASTERN IA FRI MORNING BUT HOPEFULLY JUST
PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13Z-16Z OR SO.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 302027
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SAGGING
SOUTH ACRS EAST CENTRAL KS INTO MO...WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS NOTED
SLIDING ACRS ND. SFC WINDS AND MIXING EXTENT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS
UPSTREAM PRODUCING SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA
KEEPING SFC DPTS UP MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA/ALTHOUGH SOME 50 DPTS STILL OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN IL/.
CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ALSO A FACTOR. ALOFT...12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS SEEN ON
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SOME LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEPEN THE NORTHWESTERLIES DUMPING DOWN
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT...AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR SFC TEMPS TO COOL
TOWARD THE AMBIENT DPTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW MODELS IN VARYING
DEGREES SKIT A WEAK VORT INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT MAIN EFFECT SHOULD ONLY BE TO
INDUCE SOME PATCHY AC/MID CLOUDS IF EVEN THAT.

FRIDAY...UPSTREAM SFC TROF PROGRESSES ACRS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. A FEW HIRES MODELS EVEN GENERATE A FEW
SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACRS SOUTHEASTERN IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL
AT THIS TIME/MID FRI MORNING...BUT FORCING...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND ANY INSTABILITY WEAK AT THAT TIME AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIFORM NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND ADEQUATE HEATING AND MIXING WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 80S ACRS THE CWA WITH A FEW SITES AROUND 90. AS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TAKING OFF...DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX MAX/S...
RETURN FLOW CONVERGENT ZONES AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDUCING PARAMETERS
IN A MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR REGIME ARE ALL POINTING AT THE
ACTIVE ZONE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEB...INTO NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL MO. BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE ALSO PICKING
UP ON THIS TREND...SUGGESTING THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH 00Z SAT WHILE STORM CLUSTERS BLOSSOM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
OMAHA AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY TAILS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN STL
AREA. FOR NOW WILL TRIM BACK SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE NEXT FCST SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM ALL
TOGETHER.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO
DRY ALTOGETHER. THE INITIAL MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
INCONSISTENCY LINGERS REGARDING TIMING OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING
AND FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS. WRF MCS DIAGNOSTICS DO INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO REMAINS
LOW. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
GENERAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE EVERY PERIOD DUE TO TYPICAL ISSUES WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
TIMING AND LOCATION. MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT.

TURNING TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. CONSENSUS BLENDED TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COOLING TREND INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST HUMID PERIOD...WITH
DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH...GOOD FOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRI
MORNING. WEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SINKS TO THE SOUTH. A
WEAK WAVE ALOFT EMBEDDED IN STEERING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO
SCOOT INTO THE AREA/SOUTHEASTERN IA FRI MORNING BUT HOPEFULLY JUST
PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13Z-16Z OR SO.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301749
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 59 TO 65
DEGREES AT 2 AM. ALL ANALYSIS TOOLS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
24 HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TYPICAL LATE JULY QUIET WEATHER.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE IS DEWPOINTS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY WITH BL MIXING MID TO LATE DAY AND SURFACE
WINDS SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MIXING.

TODAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY DAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. MID TO
LATE DAY MIXING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NORTH SECTIONS. OVERALL ANOTHER WARM BUT
DECENT LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GOOD BL DECOUPLING AS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH MINS MOST LOCATIONS
ON LOW END OF COOLEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 60F IN COOLEST
AREAS IN NORTH SECTIONS TO AROUND 65F IN SOUTH SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL
CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANY HIGHER POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING/INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAY REFIRE IN OUR SOUTH
ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SET UP AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE DVN CWA WITH
PERIODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. DAILY CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO HIGHER WHEN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY MCS BECOMES MORE RELIABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH READINGS TRENDING TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRI
MORNING. WEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SINKS TO THE SOUTH. A
WEAK WAVE ALOFT EMBEDDED IN STEERING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO
SCOOT INTO THE AREA/SOUTHEASTERN IA FRI MORNING BUT HOPEFULLY JUST
PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13Z-16Z OR SO.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 301749
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 59 TO 65
DEGREES AT 2 AM. ALL ANALYSIS TOOLS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
24 HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TYPICAL LATE JULY QUIET WEATHER.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE IS DEWPOINTS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY WITH BL MIXING MID TO LATE DAY AND SURFACE
WINDS SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MIXING.

TODAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY DAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. MID TO
LATE DAY MIXING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NORTH SECTIONS. OVERALL ANOTHER WARM BUT
DECENT LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GOOD BL DECOUPLING AS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH MINS MOST LOCATIONS
ON LOW END OF COOLEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 60F IN COOLEST
AREAS IN NORTH SECTIONS TO AROUND 65F IN SOUTH SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL
CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANY HIGHER POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING/INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAY REFIRE IN OUR SOUTH
ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SET UP AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE DVN CWA WITH
PERIODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. DAILY CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO HIGHER WHEN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY MCS BECOMES MORE RELIABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH READINGS TRENDING TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND MOST OF FRI
MORNING. WEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SINKS TO THE SOUTH. A
WEAK WAVE ALOFT EMBEDDED IN STEERING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO
SCOOT INTO THE AREA/SOUTHEASTERN IA FRI MORNING BUT HOPEFULLY JUST
PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13Z-16Z OR SO.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 301141
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 59 TO 65
DEGREES AT 2 AM. ALL ANALYSIS TOOLS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
24 HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TYPICAL LATE JULY QUIET WEATHER.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE IS DEWPOINTS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY WITH BL MIXING MID TO LATE DAY AND SURFACE
WINDS SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MIXING.

TODAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY DAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. MID TO
LATE DAY MIXING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NORTH SECTIONS. OVERALL ANOTHER WARM BUT
DECENT LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GOOD BL DECOUPLING AS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH MINS MOST LOCATIONS
ON LOW END OF COOLEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 60F IN COOLEST
AREAS IN NORTH SECTIONS TO AROUND 65F IN SOUTH SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL
CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANY HIGHER POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING/INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAY REFIRE IN OUR SOUTH
ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SET UP AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE DVN CWA WITH
PERIODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. DAILY CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO HIGHER WHEN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY MCS BECOMES MORE RELIABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH READINGS TRENDING TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FAIR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 301141
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 59 TO 65
DEGREES AT 2 AM. ALL ANALYSIS TOOLS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
24 HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TYPICAL LATE JULY QUIET WEATHER.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE IS DEWPOINTS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY WITH BL MIXING MID TO LATE DAY AND SURFACE
WINDS SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MIXING.

TODAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY DAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. MID TO
LATE DAY MIXING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NORTH SECTIONS. OVERALL ANOTHER WARM BUT
DECENT LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GOOD BL DECOUPLING AS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH MINS MOST LOCATIONS
ON LOW END OF COOLEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 60F IN COOLEST
AREAS IN NORTH SECTIONS TO AROUND 65F IN SOUTH SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL
CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANY HIGHER POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING/INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAY REFIRE IN OUR SOUTH
ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SET UP AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE DVN CWA WITH
PERIODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. DAILY CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO HIGHER WHEN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY MCS BECOMES MORE RELIABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH READINGS TRENDING TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FAIR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 59 TO 65
DEGREES AT 2 AM. ALL ANALYSIS TOOLS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
24 HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TYPICAL LATE JULY QUIET WEATHER.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE IS DEWPOINTS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY WITH BL MIXING MID TO LATE DAY AND SURFACE
WINDS SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MIXING.

TODAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY DAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. MID TO
LATE DAY MIXING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NORTH SECTIONS. OVERALL ANOTHER WARM BUT
DECENT LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GOOD BL DECOUPLING AS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH MINS MOST LOCATIONS
ON LOW END OF COOLEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 60F IN COOLEST
AREAS IN NORTH SECTIONS TO AROUND 65F IN SOUTH SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL
CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANY HIGHER POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING/INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAY REFIRE IN OUR SOUTH
ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SET UP AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE DVN CWA WITH
PERIODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. DAILY CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO HIGHER WHEN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY MCS BECOMES MORE RELIABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH READINGS TRENDING TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/31 AS HIGH PRESSURE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 300826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 59 TO 65
DEGREES AT 2 AM. ALL ANALYSIS TOOLS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
24 HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TYPICAL LATE JULY QUIET WEATHER.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE IS DEWPOINTS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY WITH BL MIXING MID TO LATE DAY AND SURFACE
WINDS SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MIXING.

TODAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY DAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. MID TO
LATE DAY MIXING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NORTH SECTIONS. OVERALL ANOTHER WARM BUT
DECENT LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GOOD BL DECOUPLING AS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH MINS MOST LOCATIONS
ON LOW END OF COOLEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 60F IN COOLEST
AREAS IN NORTH SECTIONS TO AROUND 65F IN SOUTH SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL
CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANY HIGHER POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING/INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAY REFIRE IN OUR SOUTH
ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SET UP AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE DVN CWA WITH
PERIODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. DAILY CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO HIGHER WHEN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY MCS BECOMES MORE RELIABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH READINGS TRENDING TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/31 AS HIGH PRESSURE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 59 TO 65
DEGREES AT 2 AM. ALL ANALYSIS TOOLS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
24 HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TYPICAL LATE JULY QUIET WEATHER.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE IS DEWPOINTS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY WITH BL MIXING MID TO LATE DAY AND SURFACE
WINDS SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MIXING.

TODAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY DAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. MID TO
LATE DAY MIXING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NORTH SECTIONS. OVERALL ANOTHER WARM BUT
DECENT LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GOOD BL DECOUPLING AS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH MINS MOST LOCATIONS
ON LOW END OF COOLEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 60F IN COOLEST
AREAS IN NORTH SECTIONS TO AROUND 65F IN SOUTH SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL
CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANY HIGHER POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING/INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAY REFIRE IN OUR SOUTH
ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SET UP AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE DVN CWA WITH
PERIODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. DAILY CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO HIGHER WHEN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY MCS BECOMES MORE RELIABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH READINGS TRENDING TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/31 AS HIGH PRESSURE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN THE MERCURY RANGING FROM 59 TO 65
DEGREES AT 2 AM. ALL ANALYSIS TOOLS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
24 HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TYPICAL LATE JULY QUIET WEATHER.
UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS NW FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE IS DEWPOINTS LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH
AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY WITH BL MIXING MID TO LATE DAY AND SURFACE
WINDS SLIGHTLY GUSTIER THAN SOLUTIONS DUE TO MIXING.

TODAY...SUNNY TO MOSTLY DAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. MID TO
LATE DAY MIXING TO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15+ MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH NORTH SECTIONS. OVERALL ANOTHER WARM BUT
DECENT LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
GOOD BL DECOUPLING AS IS HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH MINS MOST LOCATIONS
ON LOW END OF COOLEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 60F IN COOLEST
AREAS IN NORTH SECTIONS TO AROUND 65F IN SOUTH SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. I WILL
CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANY HIGHER POPS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING/INCREASING
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD UPSCALE INTO A LARGER MCS OVERNIGHT
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAY REFIRE IN OUR SOUTH
ALONG WHAT SHOULD BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL BE IN A BATTLE ZONE
BETWEEN THE HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
SET UP AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER THE DVN CWA WITH
PERIODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA. DAILY CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
THE GRIDS WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO HIGHER WHEN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
ANY MCS BECOMES MORE RELIABLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH READINGS TRENDING TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/31 AS HIGH PRESSURE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 300451
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH
RVR VALLEY. IN-BUILDING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DRY-
DOWN MIXING HAS LOWERED SFC DPTS INTO THE 50S ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH
AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A
LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION
SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE PRESSING EAST ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WILL SLIP ACRS IA THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOTHING BUT
DRYING/SUBSIDING AIR TO ACT UPON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TONIGHT...A FEW WISPY PATCHES OF CIRRUS TRAVERSING ACRS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FLANK OF UPPER JET MAX STREAKING FROM NEB
TO SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH SFC
WINDS DECOUPLING OR AT LEAST BECOMING LIGHT/LESS THAN 5 KTS...ALONG
WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE STEERING FLOW NORTHWESTERLIES TAKE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY STARTING TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FROM THE NORTHWEST ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SFC DPTS WILL LIKELY DRY-DOWN MIX
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES AGAIN...BATTLING THE CROP
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PROCESSES AND MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 50S IN SOME
PLACES.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL WINDOWS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST ISSUE IS DEALING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS
INCLUDED IN THE DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC...BUT MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 35 KTS WARRANT ADDING A LOW POP. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY SOUTH...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG
LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A FEW STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/31 AS HIGH PRESSURE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 300451
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH
RVR VALLEY. IN-BUILDING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DRY-
DOWN MIXING HAS LOWERED SFC DPTS INTO THE 50S ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH
AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A
LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION
SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE PRESSING EAST ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WILL SLIP ACRS IA THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOTHING BUT
DRYING/SUBSIDING AIR TO ACT UPON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TONIGHT...A FEW WISPY PATCHES OF CIRRUS TRAVERSING ACRS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FLANK OF UPPER JET MAX STREAKING FROM NEB
TO SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH SFC
WINDS DECOUPLING OR AT LEAST BECOMING LIGHT/LESS THAN 5 KTS...ALONG
WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE STEERING FLOW NORTHWESTERLIES TAKE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY STARTING TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FROM THE NORTHWEST ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SFC DPTS WILL LIKELY DRY-DOWN MIX
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES AGAIN...BATTLING THE CROP
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PROCESSES AND MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 50S IN SOME
PLACES.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL WINDOWS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST ISSUE IS DEALING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS
INCLUDED IN THE DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC...BUT MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 35 KTS WARRANT ADDING A LOW POP. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY SOUTH...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG
LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A FEW STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/31 AS HIGH PRESSURE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292317
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
617 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH
RVR VALLEY. IN-BUILDING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DRY-
DOWN MIXING HAS LOWERED SFC DPTS INTO THE 50S ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH
AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A
LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION
SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE PRESSING EAST ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WILL SLIP ACRS IA THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOTHING BUT
DRYING/SUBSIDING AIR TO ACT UPON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TONIGHT...A FEW WISPY PATCHES OF CIRRUS TRAVERSING ACRS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FLANK OF UPPER JET MAX STREAKING FROM NEB
TO SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH SFC
WINDS DECOUPLING OR AT LEAST BECOMING LIGHT/LESS THAN 5 KTS...ALONG
WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE STEERING FLOW NORTHWESTERLIES TAKE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY STARTING TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FROM THE NORTHWEST ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SFC DPTS WILL LIKELY DRY-DOWN MIX
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES AGAIN...BATTLING THE CROP
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PROCESSES AND MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 50S IN SOME
PLACES.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL WINDOWS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST ISSUE IS DEALING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS
INCLUDED IN THE DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC...BUT MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 35 KTS WARRANT ADDING A LOW POP. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY SOUTH...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG
LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A FEW STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/31 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292317
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
617 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH
RVR VALLEY. IN-BUILDING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DRY-
DOWN MIXING HAS LOWERED SFC DPTS INTO THE 50S ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH
AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A
LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION
SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE PRESSING EAST ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WILL SLIP ACRS IA THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOTHING BUT
DRYING/SUBSIDING AIR TO ACT UPON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TONIGHT...A FEW WISPY PATCHES OF CIRRUS TRAVERSING ACRS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FLANK OF UPPER JET MAX STREAKING FROM NEB
TO SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH SFC
WINDS DECOUPLING OR AT LEAST BECOMING LIGHT/LESS THAN 5 KTS...ALONG
WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE STEERING FLOW NORTHWESTERLIES TAKE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY STARTING TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FROM THE NORTHWEST ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SFC DPTS WILL LIKELY DRY-DOWN MIX
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES AGAIN...BATTLING THE CROP
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PROCESSES AND MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 50S IN SOME
PLACES.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL WINDOWS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST ISSUE IS DEALING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS
INCLUDED IN THE DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC...BUT MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 35 KTS WARRANT ADDING A LOW POP. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY SOUTH...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG
LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A FEW STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/31 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 292026
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH
RVR VALLEY. IN-BUILDING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DRY-
DOWN MIXING HAS LOWERED SFC DPTS INTO THE 50S ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH
AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A
LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION
SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE PRESSING EAST ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WILL SLIP ACRS IA THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOTHING BUT
DRYING/SUBSIDING AIR TO ACT UPON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TONIGHT...A FEW WISPY PATCHES OF CIRRUS TRAVERSING ACRS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FLANK OF UPPER JET MAX STREAKING FROM NEB
TO SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH SFC
WINDS DECOUPLING OR AT LEAST BECOMING LIGHT/LESS THAN 5 KTS...ALONG
WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE STEERING FLOW NORTHWESTERLIES TAKE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY STARTING TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FROM THE NORTHWEST ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SFC DPTS WILL LIKELY DRY-DOWN MIX
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES AGAIN...BATTLING THE CROP
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PROCESSES AND MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 50S IN SOME
PLACES.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL WINDOWS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST ISSUE IS DEALING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS
INCLUDED IN THE DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC...BUT MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 35 KTS WARRANT ADDING A LOW POP. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY SOUTH...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG
LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A FEW STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF CYCLE. ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD STAY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS BY LATE THU MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 292026
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE MID MS RVR
VALLEY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE GRT LKS AND WESTERN OH
RVR VALLEY. IN-BUILDING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING DRY-
DOWN MIXING HAS LOWERED SFC DPTS INTO THE 50S ACRS MUCH OF THE
CWA...MAKING FOR TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WHEN COMBINED WITH
AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
ESPECIALLY THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WERE INDICATING NICELY A
LARGE WRAPPED UP CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION
SPIRALING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  A WEAK VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE PRESSING EAST ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WILL SLIP ACRS IA THIS EVENING BUT HAVE NOTHING BUT
DRYING/SUBSIDING AIR TO ACT UPON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

TONIGHT...A FEW WISPY PATCHES OF CIRRUS TRAVERSING ACRS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FLANK OF UPPER JET MAX STREAKING FROM NEB
TO SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH SFC
WINDS DECOUPLING OR AT LEAST BECOMING LIGHT/LESS THAN 5 KTS...ALONG
WITH THE LOWERED DPTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE STEERING FLOW NORTHWESTERLIES TAKE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY STARTING TO
WARM AIR ADVECT FROM THE NORTHWEST ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SFC DPTS WILL LIKELY DRY-DOWN MIX
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES AGAIN...BATTLING THE CROP
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PROCESSES AND MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 50S IN SOME
PLACES.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL WINDOWS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FIRST ISSUE IS DEALING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS
INCLUDED IN THE DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC...BUT MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 35 KTS WARRANT ADDING A LOW POP. SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF...MAINLY SOUTH...SO HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG
LINE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BEFORE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...A FEW STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF CYCLE. ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD STAY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS BY LATE THU MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 291739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 2 AM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST
VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH MID
DAY STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20+ MPH AT TIMES
AND AREA DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING MAY BE A FEW DEGREES DRIER FOR A
COMFORTABLE WARM SUMMER DAY THE MOST RELEVANT QUESTION.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AT MOST. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NORTH 1/2 OF
AREA REACH OVER 20+ MPH DUE TO DEEP MIXING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND OF AROUND 80F IN NORTH TO NEAR 85F FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS. CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF 58 TO 63
DEGREES. FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
WITH BL DECOUPLING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BRING TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN NARROW THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IF/WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP HIGHER BUT NOTHING EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF CYCLE. ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD STAY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS BY LATE THU MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 291739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 2 AM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST
VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH MID
DAY STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20+ MPH AT TIMES
AND AREA DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING MAY BE A FEW DEGREES DRIER FOR A
COMFORTABLE WARM SUMMER DAY THE MOST RELEVANT QUESTION.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AT MOST. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NORTH 1/2 OF
AREA REACH OVER 20+ MPH DUE TO DEEP MIXING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND OF AROUND 80F IN NORTH TO NEAR 85F FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS. CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF 58 TO 63
DEGREES. FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
WITH BL DECOUPLING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BRING TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN NARROW THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IF/WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP HIGHER BUT NOTHING EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FAIR WX AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF CYCLE. ANY FOG TONIGHT SHOULD STAY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS BY LATE THU MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 291125
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 2 AM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST
VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH MID
DAY STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20+ MPH AT TIMES
AND AREA DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING MAY BE A FEW DEGREES DRIER FOR A
COMFORTABLE WARM SUMMER DAY THE MOST RELEVANT QUESTION.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AT MOST. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NORTH 1/2 OF
AREA REACH OVER 20+ MPH DUE TO DEEP MIXING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND OF AROUND 80F IN NORTH TO NEAR 85F FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS. CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF 58 TO 63
DEGREES. FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
WITH BL DECOUPLING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BRING TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN NARROW THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IF/WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP HIGHER BUT NOTHING EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BECOME FAIR AROUND MID DAY WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 291125
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 2 AM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST
VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH MID
DAY STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20+ MPH AT TIMES
AND AREA DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING MAY BE A FEW DEGREES DRIER FOR A
COMFORTABLE WARM SUMMER DAY THE MOST RELEVANT QUESTION.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AT MOST. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NORTH 1/2 OF
AREA REACH OVER 20+ MPH DUE TO DEEP MIXING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND OF AROUND 80F IN NORTH TO NEAR 85F FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS. CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF 58 TO 63
DEGREES. FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
WITH BL DECOUPLING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BRING TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN NARROW THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IF/WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP HIGHER BUT NOTHING EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BECOME FAIR AROUND MID DAY WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 291125
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 2 AM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST
VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH MID
DAY STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20+ MPH AT TIMES
AND AREA DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING MAY BE A FEW DEGREES DRIER FOR A
COMFORTABLE WARM SUMMER DAY THE MOST RELEVANT QUESTION.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AT MOST. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NORTH 1/2 OF
AREA REACH OVER 20+ MPH DUE TO DEEP MIXING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND OF AROUND 80F IN NORTH TO NEAR 85F FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS. CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF 58 TO 63
DEGREES. FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
WITH BL DECOUPLING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BRING TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN NARROW THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IF/WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP HIGHER BUT NOTHING EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BECOME FAIR AROUND MID DAY WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290806
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 2 AM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST
VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH MID
DAY STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20+ MPH AT TIMES
AND AREA DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING MAY BE A FEW DEGREES DRIER FOR A
COMFORTABLE WARM SUMMER DAY THE MOST RELEVANT QUESTION.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AT MOST. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NORTH 1/2 OF
AREA REACH OVER 20+ MPH DUE TO DEEP MIXING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND OF AROUND 80F IN NORTH TO NEAR 85F FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS. CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF 58 TO 63
DEGREES. FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
WITH BL DECOUPLING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BRING TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN NARROW THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IF/WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP HIGHER BUT NOTHING EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM MOSTLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END BY 29/10Z WITH
ISOLATED AND BRIEF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. THEN...SKIES WILL BECOME
FAIR WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.

IL...NONE.

MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290806
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 2 AM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST
VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH MID
DAY STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20+ MPH AT TIMES
AND AREA DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING MAY BE A FEW DEGREES DRIER FOR A
COMFORTABLE WARM SUMMER DAY THE MOST RELEVANT QUESTION.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AT MOST. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NORTH 1/2 OF
AREA REACH OVER 20+ MPH DUE TO DEEP MIXING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND OF AROUND 80F IN NORTH TO NEAR 85F FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS. CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF 58 TO 63
DEGREES. FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
WITH BL DECOUPLING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BRING TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN NARROW THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IF/WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP HIGHER BUT NOTHING EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM MOSTLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END BY 29/10Z WITH
ISOLATED AND BRIEF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. THEN...SKIES WILL BECOME
FAIR WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.

IL...NONE.

MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290557
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1257 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SPECIFIC CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE...SW
MN AND NW IA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY HAS LIMITED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO...TEMPS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HAS CREATED QUIET THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENT GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS TRAINING COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY THEN PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INTENSIFY THEM. IF THEY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...THERE IS THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND TORNADOES WITH THEM.
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT
WAY.

OFF TO THE WEST IN SW IA AND SE NE...CU WAS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THESE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND THEN
BECOME SURFACE BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
INCREASED. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. RAIN RATES THIS
MORNING WERE VERY HIGH AND AREAS WITH RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION HAD
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF I80 HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES....DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
ONE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART RATHER THAN THE 70S OF LATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...WILL CARRY LOW POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET ONES...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH
AN ABSENCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM MOSTLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END BY 29/10Z
WITH ISOLATED AND BRIEF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. THEN...SKIES WILL
BECOME FAIR WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-
     DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290557
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1257 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SPECIFIC CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE...SW
MN AND NW IA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY HAS LIMITED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO...TEMPS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HAS CREATED QUIET THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENT GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS TRAINING COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY THEN PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INTENSIFY THEM. IF THEY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...THERE IS THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND TORNADOES WITH THEM.
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT
WAY.

OFF TO THE WEST IN SW IA AND SE NE...CU WAS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THESE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND THEN
BECOME SURFACE BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
INCREASED. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. RAIN RATES THIS
MORNING WERE VERY HIGH AND AREAS WITH RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION HAD
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF I80 HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES....DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
ONE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART RATHER THAN THE 70S OF LATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...WILL CARRY LOW POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET ONES...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH
AN ABSENCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM MOSTLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END BY 29/10Z
WITH ISOLATED AND BRIEF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. THEN...SKIES WILL
BECOME FAIR WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-
     DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290557
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1257 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SPECIFIC CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE...SW
MN AND NW IA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY HAS LIMITED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO...TEMPS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HAS CREATED QUIET THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENT GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS TRAINING COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY THEN PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INTENSIFY THEM. IF THEY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...THERE IS THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND TORNADOES WITH THEM.
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT
WAY.

OFF TO THE WEST IN SW IA AND SE NE...CU WAS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THESE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND THEN
BECOME SURFACE BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
INCREASED. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. RAIN RATES THIS
MORNING WERE VERY HIGH AND AREAS WITH RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION HAD
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF I80 HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES....DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
ONE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART RATHER THAN THE 70S OF LATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...WILL CARRY LOW POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET ONES...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH
AN ABSENCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM MOSTLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END BY 29/10Z
WITH ISOLATED AND BRIEF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. THEN...SKIES WILL
BECOME FAIR WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-
     DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290557
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1257 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SPECIFIC CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE...SW
MN AND NW IA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY HAS LIMITED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO...TEMPS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HAS CREATED QUIET THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENT GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS TRAINING COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY THEN PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INTENSIFY THEM. IF THEY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...THERE IS THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND TORNADOES WITH THEM.
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT
WAY.

OFF TO THE WEST IN SW IA AND SE NE...CU WAS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THESE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND THEN
BECOME SURFACE BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
INCREASED. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. RAIN RATES THIS
MORNING WERE VERY HIGH AND AREAS WITH RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION HAD
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF I80 HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES....DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
ONE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART RATHER THAN THE 70S OF LATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...WILL CARRY LOW POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET ONES...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH
AN ABSENCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM MOSTLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END BY 29/10Z
WITH ISOLATED AND BRIEF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. THEN...SKIES WILL
BECOME FAIR WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-
     DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282337
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SPECIFIC CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE...SW
MN AND NW IA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY HAS LIMITED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO...TEMPS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HAS CREATED QUIET THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENT GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS TRAINING COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY THEN PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INTENSIFY THEM. IF THEY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...THERE IS THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND TORNADOES WITH THEM.
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT
WAY.

OFF TO THE WEST IN SW IA AND SE NE...CU WAS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THESE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND THEN
BECOME SURFACE BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
INCREASED. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. RAIN RATES THIS
MORNING WERE VERY HIGH AND AREAS WITH RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION HAD
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF I80 HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES....DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
ONE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART RATHER THAN THE 70S OF LATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...WILL CARRY LOW POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET ONES...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH
AN ABSENCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AROUND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z/29
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF
SITE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFT 04Z/29
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282337
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SPECIFIC CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE...SW
MN AND NW IA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY HAS LIMITED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO...TEMPS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HAS CREATED QUIET THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENT GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS TRAINING COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY THEN PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INTENSIFY THEM. IF THEY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...THERE IS THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND TORNADOES WITH THEM.
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT
WAY.

OFF TO THE WEST IN SW IA AND SE NE...CU WAS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THESE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND THEN
BECOME SURFACE BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
INCREASED. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. RAIN RATES THIS
MORNING WERE VERY HIGH AND AREAS WITH RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION HAD
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF I80 HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES....DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
ONE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART RATHER THAN THE 70S OF LATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...WILL CARRY LOW POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET ONES...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH
AN ABSENCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AROUND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z/29
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF
SITE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFT 04Z/29
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282337
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED
ACROSS THE S MN INTO S WI AND N IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WERE STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SPECIFIC CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A STRONG JULY COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS NE...SW
MN AND NW IA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER...AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TODAY HAS LIMITED WARMING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA. AREAS NORTH OF I80 HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO...TEMPS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HAS CREATED QUIET THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENT GUT FEELING IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS TRAINING COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY THEN PUSH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND INTENSIFY THEM. IF THEY CAN BECOME SFC
BASED...THERE IS THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND AND TORNADOES WITH THEM.
AT THIS TIME THEY APPEAR TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL STAY THAT
WAY.

OFF TO THE WEST IN SW IA AND SE NE...CU WAS BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THESE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND THEN
BECOME SURFACE BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
INCREASED. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SFC
BASED STORMS WOULD HAVE A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. RAIN RATES THIS
MORNING WERE VERY HIGH AND AREAS WITH RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION HAD
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN QUICKLY. SINCE AREAS SOUTH OF I80 HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY AND PWATS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES....DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF
ONE TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TRAINING
CONVECTION COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NEAR 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART BY A NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BETWEEN A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART RATHER THAN THE 70S OF LATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...WILL CARRY LOW POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET ONES...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH
AN ABSENCE OF EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AROUND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z/29
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF
SITE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFT 04Z/29
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DES MOINES-HENRY
     IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities