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000
FXUS63 KDVN 301737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BUT SO FAR NO NEW
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. DOWNWARD MOTION IS STILL PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL TAKE TIME TO OVERCOME. THUS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...THERMALS SHOULD BE INITIATED IN ABOUT 90
MINUTES. NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE 1-2 HOURS AFTER
THERMALS START WITH THE LIKELY ORIGIN IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SE
THROUGH WI AND APPEARS TO BE REFLECTION AT SFC IN FORM OF COOL
FRONT ARCING FROM SOUTH OF GREEN BAY WI TO NORTH OF LACROSSE WI.
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY THINNING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. ALOFT... PATTERN UNCHANGED AND REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BETWEEN DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN RIDGE... WITH LOCAL AREA CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN
NW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PERSISTENCE FCSTING REMAINS THE WAY TO GO WITH STAGNANT NW FLOW
PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT... AND LITTLE CHANGE THERMALLY (H85 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 12C). THUS... TDY TO LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY
WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS MAINLY FROM AROUND THE QUAD CITIES N/E WITH AID
OF WI IMPULSE SLIDING SEWD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD STRONGER
CELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF WI YSTDY WHICH SAW OF SPECKLING OF
SEVERE REPORTS MAINLY WIND. 0-6KM SHEAR THOUGH PROGGED NOT TO BE
AS STRONG AS ACROSS WI YSTDY (35-40 KTS)... WITH LATEST RUNS OF
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR NORTHEAST OF KDBQ-
KVYS LINE. THIS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH /SEASONALLY MODERATE/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CELLS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USING TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 50S YIELD SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1300+ J/KG. NICE INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SFC-700 MB
OF 8.5-10C WITH LOTS OF SUB CLOUD DRY AIR FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
AND BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST E/NE OF CWA WITH AID OF ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70+ KT H5 JET MAX AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT
POSSIBLY LAKE ENHANCED.

ANY CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND EARLY OVRNGT
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR/PTCLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH COOLEST READINGS (LOW/MID 50S) IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS... WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKED PATTERN TO
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT WAVES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BLOCKY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS A PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND FLATTENS
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS SETS UP A ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN OR NEAR
THE DVN CWA AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
MIDWEST...ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF LOOKS INTERESTING DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AND
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOAKING
RAINS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/31. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 02Z/31 WHICH MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM A SHRA/TSRA. THE PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10 PERCENT. AFT 06Z/31
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 301737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED BUT SO FAR NO NEW
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. DOWNWARD MOTION IS STILL PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL TAKE TIME TO OVERCOME. THUS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...THERMALS SHOULD BE INITIATED IN ABOUT 90
MINUTES. NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE 1-2 HOURS AFTER
THERMALS START WITH THE LIKELY ORIGIN IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SE
THROUGH WI AND APPEARS TO BE REFLECTION AT SFC IN FORM OF COOL
FRONT ARCING FROM SOUTH OF GREEN BAY WI TO NORTH OF LACROSSE WI.
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY THINNING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. ALOFT... PATTERN UNCHANGED AND REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BETWEEN DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN RIDGE... WITH LOCAL AREA CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN
NW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PERSISTENCE FCSTING REMAINS THE WAY TO GO WITH STAGNANT NW FLOW
PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT... AND LITTLE CHANGE THERMALLY (H85 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 12C). THUS... TDY TO LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY
WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS MAINLY FROM AROUND THE QUAD CITIES N/E WITH AID
OF WI IMPULSE SLIDING SEWD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD STRONGER
CELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF WI YSTDY WHICH SAW OF SPECKLING OF
SEVERE REPORTS MAINLY WIND. 0-6KM SHEAR THOUGH PROGGED NOT TO BE
AS STRONG AS ACROSS WI YSTDY (35-40 KTS)... WITH LATEST RUNS OF
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR NORTHEAST OF KDBQ-
KVYS LINE. THIS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH /SEASONALLY MODERATE/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CELLS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USING TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 50S YIELD SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1300+ J/KG. NICE INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SFC-700 MB
OF 8.5-10C WITH LOTS OF SUB CLOUD DRY AIR FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
AND BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST E/NE OF CWA WITH AID OF ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70+ KT H5 JET MAX AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT
POSSIBLY LAKE ENHANCED.

ANY CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND EARLY OVRNGT
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR/PTCLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH COOLEST READINGS (LOW/MID 50S) IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS... WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKED PATTERN TO
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT WAVES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BLOCKY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS A PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND FLATTENS
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS SETS UP A ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN OR NEAR
THE DVN CWA AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
MIDWEST...ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF LOOKS INTERESTING DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AND
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOAKING
RAINS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/31. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 02Z/31 WHICH MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM A SHRA/TSRA. THE PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10 PERCENT. AFT 06Z/31
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301425
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
925 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...THERMALS SHOULD BE INITIATED IN ABOUT 90
MINUTES. NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE 1-2 HOURS AFTER
THERMALS START WITH THE LIKELY ORIGIN IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SE
THROUGH WI AND APPEARS TO BE REFLECTION AT SFC IN FORM OF COOL
FRONT ARCING FROM SOUTH OF GREEN BAY WI TO NORTH OF LACROSSE WI.
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY THINNING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. ALOFT... PATTERN UNCHANGED AND REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BETWEEN DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN RIDGE... WITH LOCAL AREA CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN
NW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PERSISTENCE FCSTING REMAINS THE WAY TO GO WITH STAGNANT NW FLOW
PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT... AND LITTLE CHANGE THERMALLY (H85 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 12C). THUS... TDY TO LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY
WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS MAINLY FROM AROUND THE QUAD CITIES N/E WITH AID
OF WI IMPULSE SLIDING SEWD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD STRONGER
CELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF WI YSTDY WHICH SAW OF SPECKLING OF
SEVERE REPORTS MAINLY WIND. 0-6KM SHEAR THOUGH PROGGED NOT TO BE
AS STRONG AS ACROSS WI YSTDY (35-40 KTS)... WITH LATEST RUNS OF
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR NORTHEAST OF KDBQ-
KVYS LINE. THIS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH /SEASONALLY MODERATE/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CELLS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USING TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 50S YIELD SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1300+ J/KG. NICE INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SFC-700 MB
OF 8.5-10C WITH LOTS OF SUB CLOUD DRY AIR FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
AND BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST E/NE OF CWA WITH AID OF ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70+ KT H5 JET MAX AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT
POSSIBLY LAKE ENHANCED.

ANY CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND EARLY OVRNGT
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR/PTCLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH COOLEST READINGS (LOW/MID 50S) IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS... WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKED PATTERN TO
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT WAVES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BLOCKY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS A PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND FLATTENS
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS SETS UP A ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN OR NEAR
THE DVN CWA AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
MIDWEST...ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF LOOKS INTERESTING DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AND
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOAKING
RAINS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTION OF
PROB30 AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION. ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVE INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY RAINFALL.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 301425
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
925 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...THERMALS SHOULD BE INITIATED IN ABOUT 90
MINUTES. NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE 1-2 HOURS AFTER
THERMALS START WITH THE LIKELY ORIGIN IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SE
THROUGH WI AND APPEARS TO BE REFLECTION AT SFC IN FORM OF COOL
FRONT ARCING FROM SOUTH OF GREEN BAY WI TO NORTH OF LACROSSE WI.
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY THINNING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. ALOFT... PATTERN UNCHANGED AND REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BETWEEN DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN RIDGE... WITH LOCAL AREA CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN
NW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PERSISTENCE FCSTING REMAINS THE WAY TO GO WITH STAGNANT NW FLOW
PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT... AND LITTLE CHANGE THERMALLY (H85 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 12C). THUS... TDY TO LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY
WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS MAINLY FROM AROUND THE QUAD CITIES N/E WITH AID
OF WI IMPULSE SLIDING SEWD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD STRONGER
CELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF WI YSTDY WHICH SAW OF SPECKLING OF
SEVERE REPORTS MAINLY WIND. 0-6KM SHEAR THOUGH PROGGED NOT TO BE
AS STRONG AS ACROSS WI YSTDY (35-40 KTS)... WITH LATEST RUNS OF
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR NORTHEAST OF KDBQ-
KVYS LINE. THIS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH /SEASONALLY MODERATE/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CELLS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USING TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 50S YIELD SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1300+ J/KG. NICE INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SFC-700 MB
OF 8.5-10C WITH LOTS OF SUB CLOUD DRY AIR FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
AND BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST E/NE OF CWA WITH AID OF ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70+ KT H5 JET MAX AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT
POSSIBLY LAKE ENHANCED.

ANY CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND EARLY OVRNGT
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR/PTCLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH COOLEST READINGS (LOW/MID 50S) IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS... WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKED PATTERN TO
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT WAVES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BLOCKY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS A PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND FLATTENS
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS SETS UP A ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN OR NEAR
THE DVN CWA AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
MIDWEST...ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF LOOKS INTERESTING DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AND
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOAKING
RAINS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTION OF
PROB30 AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION. ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVE INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY RAINFALL.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301144
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SE
THROUGH WI AND APPEARS TO BE REFLECTION AT SFC IN FORM OF COOL
FRONT ARCING FROM SOUTH OF GREEN BAY WI TO NORTH OF LACROSSE WI.
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY THINNING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. ALOFT... PATTERN UNCHANGED AND REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BETWEEN DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN RIDGE... WITH LOCAL AREA CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN
NW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PERSISTENCE FCSTING REMAINS THE WAY TO GO WITH STAGNANT NW FLOW
PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT... AND LITTLE CHANGE THERMALLY (H85 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 12C). THUS... TDY TO LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY
WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS MAINLY FROM AROUND THE QUAD CITIES N/E WITH AID
OF WI IMPULSE SLIDING SEWD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD STRONGER
CELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF WI YSTDY WHICH SAW OF SPECKLING OF
SEVERE REPORTS MAINLY WIND. 0-6KM SHEAR THOUGH PROGGED NOT TO BE
AS STRONG AS ACROSS WI YSTDY (35-40 KTS)... WITH LATEST RUNS OF
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR NORTHEAST OF KDBQ-
KVYS LINE. THIS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH /SEASONALLY MODERATE/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CELLS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USING TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 50S YIELD SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1300+ J/KG. NICE INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SFC-700 MB
OF 8.5-10C WITH LOTS OF SUB CLOUD DRY AIR FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
AND BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST E/NE OF CWA WITH AID OF ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70+ KT H5 JET MAX AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT
POSSIBLY LAKE ENHANCED.

ANY CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND EARLY OVRNGT
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR/PTCLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH COOLEST READINGS (LOW/MID 50S) IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS... WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKED PATTERN TO
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT WAVES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BLOCKY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS A PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND FLATTENS
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS SETS UP A ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN OR NEAR
THE DVN CWA AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
MIDWEST...ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF LOOKS INTERESTING DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AND
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOAKING
RAINS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTION OF
PROB30 AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION. ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVE INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY RAINFALL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 301144
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SE
THROUGH WI AND APPEARS TO BE REFLECTION AT SFC IN FORM OF COOL
FRONT ARCING FROM SOUTH OF GREEN BAY WI TO NORTH OF LACROSSE WI.
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY THINNING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. ALOFT... PATTERN UNCHANGED AND REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BETWEEN DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN RIDGE... WITH LOCAL AREA CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN
NW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PERSISTENCE FCSTING REMAINS THE WAY TO GO WITH STAGNANT NW FLOW
PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT... AND LITTLE CHANGE THERMALLY (H85 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 12C). THUS... TDY TO LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY
WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS MAINLY FROM AROUND THE QUAD CITIES N/E WITH AID
OF WI IMPULSE SLIDING SEWD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD STRONGER
CELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF WI YSTDY WHICH SAW OF SPECKLING OF
SEVERE REPORTS MAINLY WIND. 0-6KM SHEAR THOUGH PROGGED NOT TO BE
AS STRONG AS ACROSS WI YSTDY (35-40 KTS)... WITH LATEST RUNS OF
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR NORTHEAST OF KDBQ-
KVYS LINE. THIS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH /SEASONALLY MODERATE/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CELLS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USING TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 50S YIELD SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1300+ J/KG. NICE INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SFC-700 MB
OF 8.5-10C WITH LOTS OF SUB CLOUD DRY AIR FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
AND BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST E/NE OF CWA WITH AID OF ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70+ KT H5 JET MAX AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT
POSSIBLY LAKE ENHANCED.

ANY CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND EARLY OVRNGT
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR/PTCLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH COOLEST READINGS (LOW/MID 50S) IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS... WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKED PATTERN TO
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT WAVES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BLOCKY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS A PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND FLATTENS
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS SETS UP A ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN OR NEAR
THE DVN CWA AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
MIDWEST...ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF LOOKS INTERESTING DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AND
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOAKING
RAINS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS MENTION OF
PROB30 AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION. ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVE INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE ANY RAINFALL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300849
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
349 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SE
THROUGH WI AND APPEARS TO BE REFLECTION AT SFC IN FORM OF COOL
FRONT ARCING FROM SOUTH OF GREEN BAY WI TO NORTH OF LACROSSE WI.
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY THINNING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. ALOFT... PATTERN UNCHANGED AND REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BETWEEN DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN RIDGE... WITH LOCAL AREA CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN
NW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PERSISTENCE FCSTING REMAINS THE WAY TO GO WITH STAGNANT NW FLOW
PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT... AND LITTLE CHANGE THERMALLY (H85 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 12C). THUS... TDY TO LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY
WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS MAINLY FROM AROUND THE QUAD CITIES N/E WITH AID
OF WI IMPULSE SLIDING SEWD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD STRONGER
CELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF WI YSTDY WHICH SAW OF SPECKLING OF
SEVERE REPORTS MAINLY WIND. 0-6KM SHEAR THOUGH PROGGED NOT TO BE
AS STRONG AS ACROSS WI YSTDY (35-40 KTS)... WITH LATEST RUNS OF
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR NORTHEAST OF KDBQ-
KVYS LINE. THIS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH /SEASONALLY MODERATE/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CELLS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USING TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 50S YIELD SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1300+ J/KG. NICE INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SFC-700 MB
OF 8.5-10C WITH LOTS OF SUB CLOUD DRY AIR FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
AND BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST E/NE OF CWA WITH AID OF ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70+ KT H5 JET MAX AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT
POSSIBLY LAKE ENHANCED.

ANY CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND EARLY OVRNGT
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR/PTCLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH COOLEST READINGS (LOW/MID 50S) IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS... WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKED PATTERN TO
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT WAVES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BLOCKY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS A PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND FLATTENS
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS SETS UP A ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN OR NEAR
THE DVN CWA AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
MIDWEST...ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF LOOKS INTERESTING DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AND
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOAKING
RAINS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GROUND
FOG...WHICH MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AROUND 4SM TO 5SM IN THE
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT CID..DBQ AND BRL. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS AT CID...DBQ...AND MLI. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE
TAF IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300849
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
349 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SE
THROUGH WI AND APPEARS TO BE REFLECTION AT SFC IN FORM OF COOL
FRONT ARCING FROM SOUTH OF GREEN BAY WI TO NORTH OF LACROSSE WI.
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CWA HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH LINGERING MID CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY THINNING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. ALOFT... PATTERN UNCHANGED AND REMAINS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BETWEEN DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN RIDGE... WITH LOCAL AREA CONTINUING TO RESIDE IN
NW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PERSISTENCE FCSTING REMAINS THE WAY TO GO WITH STAGNANT NW FLOW
PATTERN SFC AND ALOFT... AND LITTLE CHANGE THERMALLY (H85 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 12C). THUS... TDY TO LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YSTDY
WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO DIURNAL CU INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD TO LOW END SCTD SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS MAINLY FROM AROUND THE QUAD CITIES N/E WITH AID
OF WI IMPULSE SLIDING SEWD. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD STRONGER
CELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR LOW CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THAT OF WI YSTDY WHICH SAW OF SPECKLING OF
SEVERE REPORTS MAINLY WIND. 0-6KM SHEAR THOUGH PROGGED NOT TO BE
AS STRONG AS ACROSS WI YSTDY (35-40 KTS)... WITH LATEST RUNS OF
RAP AND NAM SUGGESTING 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR NORTHEAST OF KDBQ-
KVYS LINE. THIS PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH /SEASONALLY MODERATE/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CELLS ESPECIALLY WHEN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS USING TEMPS IN UPPER 70S AND DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 50S YIELD SBCAPES AROUND 1000-1300+ J/KG. NICE INVERTED
V-TYPE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SFC-700 MB
OF 8.5-10C WITH LOTS OF SUB CLOUD DRY AIR FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
AND BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST E/NE OF CWA WITH AID OF ENTRANCE
REGION OF 70+ KT H5 JET MAX AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT
POSSIBLY LAKE ENHANCED.

ANY CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVE AND EARLY OVRNGT
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR/PTCLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH COOLEST READINGS (LOW/MID 50S) IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS... WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKED PATTERN TO
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DEEP TROUGH IN THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SHORT WAVES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BLOCKY PATTERN BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS A PIECE OF STRONG ENERGY FROM A DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND FLATTENS
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS SETS UP A ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IN OR NEAR
THE DVN CWA AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
MIDWEST...ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAT DOME CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND THIS THE ECMWF LOOKS INTERESTING DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW AND
TRACKING IT ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOAKING
RAINS FOR SOME AREAS. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GROUND
FOG...WHICH MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AROUND 4SM TO 5SM IN THE
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT CID..DBQ AND BRL. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS AT CID...DBQ...AND MLI. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE
TAF IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300439
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUE TO
STREAM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WI INTO NORTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE RADARS SHOW THESE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINED UP WELL TO THE NW INTO W
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN...THE DIURNAL DECREASING INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO NW IL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GROUND
FOG...WHICH MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AROUND 4SM TO 5SM IN THE
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT CID..DBQ AND BRL. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS AT CID...DBQ...AND MLI. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE
TAF IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 300439
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUE TO
STREAM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WI INTO NORTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE RADARS SHOW THESE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINED UP WELL TO THE NW INTO W
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN...THE DIURNAL DECREASING INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO NW IL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GROUND
FOG...WHICH MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AROUND 4SM TO 5SM IN THE
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT CID..DBQ AND BRL. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS AT CID...DBQ...AND MLI. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE
TAF IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300323
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1023 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUE TO
STREAM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WI INTO NORTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE RADARS SHOW THESE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINED UP WELL TO THE NW INTO W
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN...THE DIURNAL DECREASING INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO NW IL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SEVERAL HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAWN...WHEN GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS GREATEST AT CID...DBQ AND BRL...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300323
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1023 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUE TO
STREAM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WI INTO NORTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE RADARS SHOW THESE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINED UP WELL TO THE NW INTO W
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN...THE DIURNAL DECREASING INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO NW IL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SEVERAL HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAWN...WHEN GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS GREATEST AT CID...DBQ AND BRL...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 292311
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SEVERAL HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAWN...WHEN GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS GREATEST AT CID...DBQ AND BRL...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 292311
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SEVERAL HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAWN...WHEN GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS GREATEST AT CID...DBQ AND BRL...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 292003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 292003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291731
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE FORMING BUT A BIT SLOWER THAT PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 291731
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE FORMING BUT A BIT SLOWER THAT PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE AM THROUGH PM. ISOLD PM SHOWER POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL. MORE GROUND AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE AM THROUGH PM. ISOLD PM SHOWER POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL. MORE GROUND AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 290811
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO AT
LEAST MVFR RANGE AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF FOG IN THE TAFS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 290425
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY
ENOUGH FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR
VALLEY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
POTENTIAL MONDAY SYSTEM. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO AT
LEAST MVFR RANGE AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF FOG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 290425
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY
ENOUGH FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR
VALLEY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
POTENTIAL MONDAY SYSTEM. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO AT
LEAST MVFR RANGE AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF FOG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 282322
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY
ENOUGH FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR
VALLEY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
POTENTIAL MONDAY SYSTEM. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS









000
FXUS63 KDVN 282322
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY
ENOUGH FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR
VALLEY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
POTENTIAL MONDAY SYSTEM. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 282017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
TH SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY ENOUGH FOR
ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF UPSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR VALLEY FOR A
PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE POTENTIAL
MONDAY SYSTEM.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 282017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
TH SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY ENOUGH FOR
ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF UPSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR VALLEY FOR A
PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE POTENTIAL
MONDAY SYSTEM.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 281737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH MID DAY WHICH
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET. SOME AREAS IN THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON. RESPECTABLE
MIXING IS LOWERING THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUT THIS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/FORCING IS WEAK SO THOSE AREAS WERE KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08









000
FXUS63 KDVN 281737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH MID DAY WHICH
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET. SOME AREAS IN THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON. RESPECTABLE
MIXING IS LOWERING THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUT THIS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/FORCING IS WEAK SO THOSE AREAS WERE KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 281136
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TODAY THEN NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 280836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FT
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE











000
FXUS63 KDVN 280836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FT
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE












000
FXUS63 KDVN 280448
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS VORT MAX NOTED ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF WI...WITH
LLVL TROF SPOKE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM NW MN ACRS CENTRAL WI AND
TOWARD SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI. PART OF THIS TROF TO MAKE IT ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THEN HEATING OF THE DAY WILL BE
WELL OVER AND WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING/ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 02Z. IN-WRAPPING CU/STRATOCU WILL START TO
DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY HANG ON ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF LONG ENOUGH THROUGH LATE EVENING TO WARRANT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO EVEN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH 11 PM OR LATER. NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO KEEP
COOL AIR/DRY ADVECTING OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR ENOUGH. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR THE MIXING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS MAINTAINING 7-12 KTS
OVERNIGHT IN IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE MIGHT BE A
SHOT AT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS AT DBQ AND MLI.

MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ENGULF THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH INCOMING GRADIENT STILL LINGERING ENOUGH
TO MAKE FOR NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX AGAIN. AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
WILL LOOK TO USHER DOWN ANOTHER VORT COMPLEX ACRS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL IA...WITH SEVERAL MODELS BREAKING OUT LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHILE LLVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AGAIN...BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION
JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
GENERATION. PLUS LLVL MOISTURE SOURCES DRY MIXING OUT. WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW...WITH JUST MORE CELLULAR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN
LEVELS FORMING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE ROBUST LLVL MIXING...
INCOMING COOL POOL LOOKS TO BE TO AN EXTENT THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE 70S/WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONGOING HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST. PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND THE LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE
FORECAST...THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT A PATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT OVER SOUTHERN WI COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE DBQ TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WITH BASES ABOVE
5000 FT TONIGHT...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 280448
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS VORT MAX NOTED ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF WI...WITH
LLVL TROF SPOKE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM NW MN ACRS CENTRAL WI AND
TOWARD SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI. PART OF THIS TROF TO MAKE IT ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THEN HEATING OF THE DAY WILL BE
WELL OVER AND WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING/ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 02Z. IN-WRAPPING CU/STRATOCU WILL START TO
DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY HANG ON ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF LONG ENOUGH THROUGH LATE EVENING TO WARRANT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO EVEN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH 11 PM OR LATER. NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO KEEP
COOL AIR/DRY ADVECTING OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR ENOUGH. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR THE MIXING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS MAINTAINING 7-12 KTS
OVERNIGHT IN IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE MIGHT BE A
SHOT AT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS AT DBQ AND MLI.

MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ENGULF THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH INCOMING GRADIENT STILL LINGERING ENOUGH
TO MAKE FOR NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX AGAIN. AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
WILL LOOK TO USHER DOWN ANOTHER VORT COMPLEX ACRS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL IA...WITH SEVERAL MODELS BREAKING OUT LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHILE LLVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AGAIN...BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION
JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
GENERATION. PLUS LLVL MOISTURE SOURCES DRY MIXING OUT. WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW...WITH JUST MORE CELLULAR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN
LEVELS FORMING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE ROBUST LLVL MIXING...
INCOMING COOL POOL LOOKS TO BE TO AN EXTENT THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE 70S/WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONGOING HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST. PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND THE LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE
FORECAST...THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT A PATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT OVER SOUTHERN WI COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE DBQ TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WITH BASES ABOVE
5000 FT TONIGHT...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 272326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS VORT MAX NOTED ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF WI...WITH
LLVL TROF SPOKE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM NW MN ACRS CENTRAL WI AND
TOWARD SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI. PART OF THIS TROF TO MAKE IT ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THEN HEATING OF THE DAY WILL BE
WELL OVER AND WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING/ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 02Z. IN-WRAPPING CU/STRATOCU WILL START TO
DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY HANG ON ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF LONG ENOUGH THROUGH LATE EVENING TO WARRANT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO EVEN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH 11 PM OR LATER. NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO KEEP
COOL AIR/DRY ADVECTING OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR ENOUGH. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR THE MIXING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS MAINTAINING 7-12 KTS
OVERNIGHT IN IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE MIGHT BE A
SHOT AT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS AT DBQ AND MLI.

MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ENGULF THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH INCOMING GRADIENT STILL LINGERING ENOUGH
TO MAKE FOR NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX AGAIN. AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
WILL LOOK TO USHER DOWN ANOTHER VORT COMPLEX ACRS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL IA...WITH SEVERAL MODELS BREAKING OUT LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHILE LLVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AGAIN...BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION
JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
GENERATION. PLUS LLVL MOISTURE SOURCES DRY MIXING OUT. WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW...WITH JUST MORE CELLULAR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN
LEVELS FORMING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE ROBUST LLVL MIXING...
INCOMING COOL POOL LOOKS TO BE TO AN EXTENT THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE 70S/WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONGOING HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST. PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND THE LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON-
GOING OVER EASTERN IA EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT CID.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AT SUNSET.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 272326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS VORT MAX NOTED ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF WI...WITH
LLVL TROF SPOKE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM NW MN ACRS CENTRAL WI AND
TOWARD SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI. PART OF THIS TROF TO MAKE IT ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THEN HEATING OF THE DAY WILL BE
WELL OVER AND WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING/ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 02Z. IN-WRAPPING CU/STRATOCU WILL START TO
DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY HANG ON ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF LONG ENOUGH THROUGH LATE EVENING TO WARRANT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO EVEN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH 11 PM OR LATER. NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO KEEP
COOL AIR/DRY ADVECTING OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR ENOUGH. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR THE MIXING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS MAINTAINING 7-12 KTS
OVERNIGHT IN IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE MIGHT BE A
SHOT AT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS AT DBQ AND MLI.

MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ENGULF THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH INCOMING GRADIENT STILL LINGERING ENOUGH
TO MAKE FOR NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX AGAIN. AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
WILL LOOK TO USHER DOWN ANOTHER VORT COMPLEX ACRS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL IA...WITH SEVERAL MODELS BREAKING OUT LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHILE LLVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AGAIN...BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION
JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
GENERATION. PLUS LLVL MOISTURE SOURCES DRY MIXING OUT. WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW...WITH JUST MORE CELLULAR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN
LEVELS FORMING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE ROBUST LLVL MIXING...
INCOMING COOL POOL LOOKS TO BE TO AN EXTENT THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE 70S/WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONGOING HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST. PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND THE LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON-
GOING OVER EASTERN IA EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT CID.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AT SUNSET.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 272014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS VORT MAX NOTED ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF WI...WITH
LLVL TROF SPOKE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM NW MN ACRS CENTRAL WI AND
TOWARD SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI. PART OF THIS TROF TO MAKE IT ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THEN HEATING OF THE DAY WILL BE
WELL OVER AND WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING/ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 02Z. IN-WRAPPING CU/STRATOCU WILL START TO
DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY HANG ON ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF LONG ENOUGH THROUGH LATE EVENING TO WARRANT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO EVEN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH 11 PM OR LATER. NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO KEEP
COOL AIR/DRY ADVECTING OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR ENOUGH. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR THE MIXING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS MAINTAINING 7-12 KTS
OVERNIGHT IN IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE MIGHT BE A
SHOT AT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS AT DBQ AND MLI.

MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ENGULF THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH INCOMING GRADIENT STILL LINGERING ENOUGH
TO MAKE FOR NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX AGAIN. AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
WILL LOOK TO USHER DOWN ANOTHER VORT COMPLEX ACRS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL IA...WITH SEVERAL MODELS BREAKING OUT LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHILE LLVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AGAIN...BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION
JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
GENERATION. PLUS LLVL MOISTURE SOURCES DRY MIXING OUT. WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW...WITH JUST MORE CELLULAR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN
LEVELS FORMING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE ROBUST LLVL MIXING...
INCOMING COOL POOL LOOKS TO BE TO AN EXTENT THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE 70S/WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONGOING HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST. PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND THE LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WRAP AROUND SCTRD TO BKN CU/STRATOCU MAKING HEAD WAY ACRS THE AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. MOST OF IT AT VFR LEVELS...BUT SOME BKN TO
OVC MVFR LEVEL PATCHES NOTE UPSTREAM ACRS SOUTHERN MN. THESE AREAS
MAY GET IN THE VCNTY OF CID AND DBQ LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT MAY LIFT TO OVER 3K FT AGL BY THAT TIME. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF DBQ THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
CURRENTLY MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FROM SE MN AND ACRS WI MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT A GRADUAL
CLEAR OUT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AT MOST SITES...BUT BKN VFR
CIGS MAY LINGER LONGER AT CID AND DBQ WELL PAST SUNSET. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO DROP TO 08-13
KTS BY 02Z THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MON
MORNING TO 10-15 KTS.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 272014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS VORT MAX NOTED ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF WI...WITH
LLVL TROF SPOKE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM NW MN ACRS CENTRAL WI AND
TOWARD SFC LOW OVER LOWER MI. PART OF THIS TROF TO MAKE IT ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THEN HEATING OF THE DAY WILL BE
WELL OVER AND WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING/ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 02Z. IN-WRAPPING CU/STRATOCU WILL START TO
DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY HANG ON ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF LONG ENOUGH THROUGH LATE EVENING TO WARRANT
PARTLY CLOUDY TO EVEN PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH 11 PM OR LATER. NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO KEEP
COOL AIR/DRY ADVECTING OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
NEAR THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR ENOUGH. IF IT
WERE NOT FOR THE MIXING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS MAINTAINING 7-12 KTS
OVERNIGHT IN IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE MIGHT BE A
SHOT AT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPS AT DBQ AND MLI.

MONDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO ENGULF THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH INCOMING GRADIENT STILL LINGERING ENOUGH
TO MAKE FOR NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX AGAIN. AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
WILL LOOK TO USHER DOWN ANOTHER VORT COMPLEX ACRS NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL IA...WITH SEVERAL MODELS BREAKING OUT LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHILE LLVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AGAIN...BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION
JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
GENERATION. PLUS LLVL MOISTURE SOURCES DRY MIXING OUT. WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW...WITH JUST MORE CELLULAR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN
LEVELS FORMING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE ROBUST LLVL MIXING...
INCOMING COOL POOL LOOKS TO BE TO AN EXTENT THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE 70S/WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONGOING HIGHS LOOK GOOD AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDWEST. PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S. LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND THE LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WRAP AROUND SCTRD TO BKN CU/STRATOCU MAKING HEAD WAY ACRS THE AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF I80. MOST OF IT AT VFR LEVELS...BUT SOME BKN TO
OVC MVFR LEVEL PATCHES NOTE UPSTREAM ACRS SOUTHERN MN. THESE AREAS
MAY GET IN THE VCNTY OF CID AND DBQ LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT MAY LIFT TO OVER 3K FT AGL BY THAT TIME. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF DBQ THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
CURRENTLY MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FROM SE MN AND ACRS WI MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT A GRADUAL
CLEAR OUT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AT MOST SITES...BUT BKN VFR
CIGS MAY LINGER LONGER AT CID AND DBQ WELL PAST SUNSET. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO DROP TO 08-13
KTS BY 02Z THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MON
MORNING TO 10-15 KTS.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...12








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