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000
FXUS63 KDVN 300446
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DEEP RICH MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO FEED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. OUR CWA FELL WEST OF A FEW HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS IN ILLINOIS EARLIER TODAY...AND UNDER A WEAK AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVELS
TO HEAT UP UNINHIBITED. AS OF 1 PM...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
FOUND OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70 TO 73 RANGE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CAPE
VALUES ESTIMATED BY SPC RAP AS OF 1 PM ARE 2000 TO 3000 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS LOCATED IN EASTERN KS...WITH A PVA
WING OF LIFT FOUND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE VORT MAX TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH IOWA THIS
EVENING...HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THESE SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE
CWA. A LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE....THIS SHOULD
BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING LINE OF STORMS...WITH SOME BRIEF TRAINING
POSSIBLE. A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 0.25 TO 0.75 IS EXPECTED...WITH
SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS MINOR
FLOOD/URBAN RUNOFF THREAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS...AND POSSIBLY END
FULLY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PARENT VORT MOVING BY WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...WE WILL LEAVE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ENERGY THROUGH WHILE
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDENCE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
BEHIND TONIGHTS STORMS...WE MAY BE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 60S...WHILE SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS WHILE THICK IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY MID
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STORM
COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
A GENERAL TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE REDUCED AND TRIMMED POPS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN
WINDOW OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATER TIMING MEANS FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING A DECAYING MCS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOWER AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK TROUGHING AND
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS
WEAK IMPULSES IS CHALLENGING AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO REASON TO
VARY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND POPS...ESSENTIALLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 8OS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPPER LOW TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT 8-12 HOURS WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 4-6 HOURS POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORMS THAT ARE HANDLED AS A TEMPO GROUP AND VICINITY WORDING
UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH CUMULUS CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3K AGL WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST 31/06Z AND CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300446
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DEEP RICH MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO FEED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. OUR CWA FELL WEST OF A FEW HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS IN ILLINOIS EARLIER TODAY...AND UNDER A WEAK AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVELS
TO HEAT UP UNINHIBITED. AS OF 1 PM...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
FOUND OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70 TO 73 RANGE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CAPE
VALUES ESTIMATED BY SPC RAP AS OF 1 PM ARE 2000 TO 3000 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS LOCATED IN EASTERN KS...WITH A PVA
WING OF LIFT FOUND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE VORT MAX TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH IOWA THIS
EVENING...HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THESE SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE
CWA. A LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE....THIS SHOULD
BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING LINE OF STORMS...WITH SOME BRIEF TRAINING
POSSIBLE. A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 0.25 TO 0.75 IS EXPECTED...WITH
SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS MINOR
FLOOD/URBAN RUNOFF THREAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS...AND POSSIBLY END
FULLY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PARENT VORT MOVING BY WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...WE WILL LEAVE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ENERGY THROUGH WHILE
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDENCE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
BEHIND TONIGHTS STORMS...WE MAY BE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 60S...WHILE SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS WHILE THICK IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY MID
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STORM
COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
A GENERAL TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE REDUCED AND TRIMMED POPS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN
WINDOW OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATER TIMING MEANS FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING A DECAYING MCS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOWER AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK TROUGHING AND
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS
WEAK IMPULSES IS CHALLENGING AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO REASON TO
VARY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND POPS...ESSENTIALLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 8OS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPPER LOW TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT 8-12 HOURS WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 4-6 HOURS POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORMS THAT ARE HANDLED AS A TEMPO GROUP AND VICINITY WORDING
UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH CUMULUS CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3K AGL WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST 31/06Z AND CLEAR SKIES BY SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO
BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 300204
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
904 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DEEP RICH MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO FEED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. OUR CWA FELL WEST OF A FEW HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS IN ILLINOIS EARLIER TODAY...AND UNDER A WEAK AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVELS
TO HEAT UP UNINHIBITED. AS OF 1 PM...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
FOUND OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70 TO 73 RANGE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CAPE
VALUES ESTIMATED BY SPC RAP AS OF 1 PM ARE 2000 TO 3000 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS LOCATED IN EASTERN KS...WITH A PVA
WING OF LIFT FOUND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE VORT MAX TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH IOWA THIS
EVENING...HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THESE SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE
CWA. A LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE....THIS SHOULD
BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING LINE OF STORMS...WITH SOME BRIEF TRAINING
POSSIBLE. A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 0.25 TO 0.75 IS EXPECTED...WITH
SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS MINOR
FLOOD/URBAN RUNOFF THREAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS...AND POSSIBLY END
FULLY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PARENT VORT MOVING BY WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...WE WILL LEAVE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ENERGY THROUGH WHILE
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDENCE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
BEHIND TONIGHTS STORMS...WE MAY BE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 60S...WHILE SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS WHILE THICK IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY MID
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STORM
COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
A GENERAL TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE REDUCED AND TRIMMED POPS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN
WINDOW OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATER TIMING MEANS FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING A DECAYING MCS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOWER AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK TROUGHING AND
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS
WEAK IMPULSES IS CHALLENGING AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO REASON TO
VARY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND POPS...ESSENTIALLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 8OS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPPER LOW TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 6+ HOURS POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORMS THAT ARE HANDLED AS A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL LATE EVENING
WITH VICINITY WORDING OVERNIGHT. SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 31/00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300204
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
904 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DEEP RICH MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO FEED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. OUR CWA FELL WEST OF A FEW HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS IN ILLINOIS EARLIER TODAY...AND UNDER A WEAK AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVELS
TO HEAT UP UNINHIBITED. AS OF 1 PM...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
FOUND OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70 TO 73 RANGE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CAPE
VALUES ESTIMATED BY SPC RAP AS OF 1 PM ARE 2000 TO 3000 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS LOCATED IN EASTERN KS...WITH A PVA
WING OF LIFT FOUND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE VORT MAX TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH IOWA THIS
EVENING...HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THESE SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE
CWA. A LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE....THIS SHOULD
BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING LINE OF STORMS...WITH SOME BRIEF TRAINING
POSSIBLE. A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 0.25 TO 0.75 IS EXPECTED...WITH
SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS MINOR
FLOOD/URBAN RUNOFF THREAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS...AND POSSIBLY END
FULLY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PARENT VORT MOVING BY WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...WE WILL LEAVE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ENERGY THROUGH WHILE
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDENCE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
BEHIND TONIGHTS STORMS...WE MAY BE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 60S...WHILE SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS WHILE THICK IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY MID
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STORM
COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
A GENERAL TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE REDUCED AND TRIMMED POPS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN
WINDOW OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATER TIMING MEANS FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING A DECAYING MCS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOWER AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK TROUGHING AND
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS
WEAK IMPULSES IS CHALLENGING AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO REASON TO
VARY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND POPS...ESSENTIALLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 8OS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPPER LOW TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 6+ HOURS POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORMS THAT ARE HANDLED AS A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL LATE EVENING
WITH VICINITY WORDING OVERNIGHT. SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 31/00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 291912
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
212 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DEEP RICH MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO FEED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. OUR CWA FELL WEST OF A FEW HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS IN ILLINOIS EARLIER TODAY...AND UNDER A WEAK AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVELS
TO HEAT UP UNINHIBITED. AS OF 1 PM...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
FOUND OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70 TO 73 RANGE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CAPE
VALUES ESTIMATED BY SPC RAP AS OF 1 PM ARE 2000 TO 3000 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS LOCATED IN EASTERN KS...WITH A PVA
WING OF LIFT FOUND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE VORT MAX TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH IOWA THIS
EVENING...HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THESE SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE
CWA. A LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE....THIS SHOULD
BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING LINE OF STORMS...WITH SOME BRIEF TRAINING
POSSIBLE. A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 0.25 TO 0.75 IS EXPECTED...WITH
SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS MINOR
FLOOD/URBAN RUNOFF THREAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS...AND POSSIBLY END
FULLY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PARENT VORT MOVING BY WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...WE WILL LEAVE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ENERGY THROUGH WHILE
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDENCE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
BEHIND TONIGHTS STORMS...WE MAY BE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 60S...WHILE SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS WHILE THICK IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY MID
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STORM
COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
A GENERAL TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE REDUCED AND TRIMMED POPS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN
WINDOW OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATER TIMING MEANS FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING A DECAYING MCS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOWER AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK TROUGHING AND
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS
WEAK IMPULSES IS CHALLENGING AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO REASON TO
VARY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND POPS...ESSENTIALLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 8OS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STORMS WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AROUND
12KTS...BECOME WEST TOWARD MORNING. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 15Z...BUT
COVERAGE. AFTER STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291912
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
212 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DEEP RICH MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO FEED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. OUR CWA FELL WEST OF A FEW HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS IN ILLINOIS EARLIER TODAY...AND UNDER A WEAK AREA
OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVELS
TO HEAT UP UNINHIBITED. AS OF 1 PM...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
FOUND OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70 TO 73 RANGE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CAPE
VALUES ESTIMATED BY SPC RAP AS OF 1 PM ARE 2000 TO 3000 OVER ALL OF
THE CWA. A VORTICITY MAXIMA IS LOCATED IN EASTERN KS...WITH A PVA
WING OF LIFT FOUND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING
A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE VORT MAX TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT THROUGH IOWA THIS
EVENING...HELPING ORGANIZE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...THESE SHOULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE
CWA. A LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. OTHERWISE....THIS SHOULD
BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING LINE OF STORMS...WITH SOME BRIEF TRAINING
POSSIBLE. A WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 0.25 TO 0.75 IS EXPECTED...WITH
SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WE ARE LIKELY TO HANDLE THIS MINOR
FLOOD/URBAN RUNOFF THREAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS...AND POSSIBLY END
FULLY. HOWEVER...WITH THE PARENT VORT MOVING BY WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE...WE WILL LEAVE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODELS BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ENERGY THROUGH WHILE
MOISTURE IS DEPARTING. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ROUGHLY THE EAST HALF...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDENCE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT
BEHIND TONIGHTS STORMS...WE MAY BE DRY ALL DAY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 60S...WHILE SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS WHILE THICK IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY MID
DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STORM
COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
A GENERAL TREND OF SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE REDUCED AND TRIMMED POPS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN
WINDOW OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATER TIMING MEANS FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO BEING A DECAYING MCS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS LOWER AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK TROUGHING AND
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS
WEAK IMPULSES IS CHALLENGING AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO REASON TO
VARY FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND POPS...ESSENTIALLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE IN EVERY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 8OS AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A LARGE AREA OF STORMS WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AROUND
12KTS...BECOME WEST TOWARD MORNING. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 15Z...BUT
COVERAGE. AFTER STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 291202
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...WILL WALK OUT ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS/
STORMS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA BY
MID MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OR ISOLATED COVERAGE OF OTHER
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO POP UP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. MUCH OF THE CWA COULD BE DRY AFTER 12-14Z THIS MORNING
AS THE WING AND ASSOCIATED LEAD VORT LIFTS UP INTO MN AND WI.
THERE IS A SECONDARY LLVL CONVERGENT ZONE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF IL THIS MORNING THAT COULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS FESTERING IN
THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED COVERAGE OR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...
BEFORE MAIN UPPER WAVE/VORT COMPLEX SEEN NOW ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACRS KS INTO OK LOOKS TO LIFT UP ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY
AND SOUTHWESTERN IA BY THIS EVENING. ALL SIGNS SUGGEST ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL GATHER
STRENGTH AND PUSH ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF HEATING
AND INSTABILITY BUILD UP WHICH IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY...IF TEMPS
COULD AT LEAST REACH THE MID 80S WITH SFC DPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50+ MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL. SFC WARM FRONT RETREAT SPEED AND
TIMING AND ADDITIONAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS TO BE BIG FACTORS...BUT WILL
BANK ON THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING WAVE TO HELP LLVL WARM
PUSH UP THROUGH THE CWA AND LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH EXTENT OF
MIXING...EVEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW TO
MID 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MORE SUN AND DEEPER MIXING IN THE
THERMAL PROFILES ADVECTING UP ACRS THE AREA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. IF TEMPS COULD APPROACH THESE VALUES...A
BETTER CHC FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A STORM CLUSTER DEVELOPING A SFC
COLD POOL AND MIXING INTO A HIGHER CAPE FIELD. WILL PLAY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF THE POTENTIAL...AGAIN LEANING
TOWARD THE WARM FRONT MAKING HEADWAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SFC WINDS LEADING TO MUCH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OF COURSE ANOTHER DAY WITH BIG BUST
POTENTIAL...MORE CLOUDS AND FRONTAL HOLD UP WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
70S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND MORE SUN IN THE SOUTH
COULD MAKE FOR SOME UPPER 80S OR EVEN A 90.

TONIGHT...AS THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES ACRS CENTRAL IA
BY MIDNIGHT...MAIN LIFT WINDOW ACRS EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWESTERN IL
WILL OCCUR FROM 00Z-07Z OR SO AND EXPECT MOST COVERAGE OF A PRECIP
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE CWA DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH POPS WARRANTED TONIGHT. SOME WINGS OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WITH PRECIPITAL WATER FEED OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES
THIS EVENING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35+ KTS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN A GOOD BET WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES BY THE
TIME THE ACTIVITY STARTS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z SAT MORNING. MOST AREAS FROM 0.45 TO 1 INCH. IN AREAS THAT
GET HIT REPEATEDLY...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY WITH A
CHANCE AT EVEN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY... BUT WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTN WITH SECONDARY
VORT MAX ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OTHERWISE... HUMID WITH SKIES BECOMING PTSUNNY AND HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SAT NGT-SUN... MAINLY DRY PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN OVER REGION IN WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO PTCLDY WITH LOWS SAT NGT IN THE 60S... AND WARMER HIGHS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 80S WITH CONTINUATION OF HUMID
CONDITIONS.

SUN NGT-MON... THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PASSING
TO OUR NORTH PULLING WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT INTERACTION TO ALLOW FOR LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF MAINLY LATER SUNDAY
EVE AND OVERNIGHT WITH INITIAL WAVE OF PCPN LENDS A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED MON AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO PASSING UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION... WHICH IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

MON NGT-THU... LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT AND TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GENERAL SUGGESTION OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WOULD LEND SUPPORT
TO FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE CWA... BUT GIVEN POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAVE TO UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MUCH
OF AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD FOR NOW AND AWAIT BETTER CLARIFICATION
ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES. TEMPS OVERALL LOOK
TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE MS
RVR. IFR FOG IN VCNTY OF DBQ TO LIFT BY 14Z. LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TEMPORARILY SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...BUT SOUTH WINDS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN AS
MORNING PROGRESSES. THEN MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE VFR WITH SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS OF 8-15KTS. CONDITIONS TO THEN DETERIORATE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WITH EXPECTED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL IA. CID TO POSSIBLY IMPACTED BY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON...THE
OTHER SITES 1 TO 3 HRS LATER. DID GENERAL LOWERING OF CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW THIS EVENING...BUT HEAVY RAIN IN ROBUST SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
TEMPORARILY DROP VSBYS AND CIGS FURTHER DOWN THAN CURRENTLY FCST
AS THEY PASS BY. AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP MOVES EAST OF THE
SITES LATE TONIGHT AFTER 07Z SAT AM...INCOMING CIGS TO BE MVFR WITH
SOME FOG OF 3-5SM INTO SAT MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291202
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...WILL WALK OUT ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS/
STORMS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA BY
MID MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OR ISOLATED COVERAGE OF OTHER
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO POP UP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. MUCH OF THE CWA COULD BE DRY AFTER 12-14Z THIS MORNING
AS THE WING AND ASSOCIATED LEAD VORT LIFTS UP INTO MN AND WI.
THERE IS A SECONDARY LLVL CONVERGENT ZONE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF IL THIS MORNING THAT COULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS FESTERING IN
THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED COVERAGE OR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...
BEFORE MAIN UPPER WAVE/VORT COMPLEX SEEN NOW ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACRS KS INTO OK LOOKS TO LIFT UP ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY
AND SOUTHWESTERN IA BY THIS EVENING. ALL SIGNS SUGGEST ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL GATHER
STRENGTH AND PUSH ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF HEATING
AND INSTABILITY BUILD UP WHICH IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY...IF TEMPS
COULD AT LEAST REACH THE MID 80S WITH SFC DPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50+ MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL. SFC WARM FRONT RETREAT SPEED AND
TIMING AND ADDITIONAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS TO BE BIG FACTORS...BUT WILL
BANK ON THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING WAVE TO HELP LLVL WARM
PUSH UP THROUGH THE CWA AND LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH EXTENT OF
MIXING...EVEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW TO
MID 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MORE SUN AND DEEPER MIXING IN THE
THERMAL PROFILES ADVECTING UP ACRS THE AREA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. IF TEMPS COULD APPROACH THESE VALUES...A
BETTER CHC FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A STORM CLUSTER DEVELOPING A SFC
COLD POOL AND MIXING INTO A HIGHER CAPE FIELD. WILL PLAY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF THE POTENTIAL...AGAIN LEANING
TOWARD THE WARM FRONT MAKING HEADWAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SFC WINDS LEADING TO MUCH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OF COURSE ANOTHER DAY WITH BIG BUST
POTENTIAL...MORE CLOUDS AND FRONTAL HOLD UP WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
70S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND MORE SUN IN THE SOUTH
COULD MAKE FOR SOME UPPER 80S OR EVEN A 90.

TONIGHT...AS THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES ACRS CENTRAL IA
BY MIDNIGHT...MAIN LIFT WINDOW ACRS EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWESTERN IL
WILL OCCUR FROM 00Z-07Z OR SO AND EXPECT MOST COVERAGE OF A PRECIP
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE CWA DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH POPS WARRANTED TONIGHT. SOME WINGS OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WITH PRECIPITAL WATER FEED OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES
THIS EVENING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35+ KTS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN A GOOD BET WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES BY THE
TIME THE ACTIVITY STARTS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z SAT MORNING. MOST AREAS FROM 0.45 TO 1 INCH. IN AREAS THAT
GET HIT REPEATEDLY...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY WITH A
CHANCE AT EVEN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY... BUT WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTN WITH SECONDARY
VORT MAX ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OTHERWISE... HUMID WITH SKIES BECOMING PTSUNNY AND HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SAT NGT-SUN... MAINLY DRY PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN OVER REGION IN WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO PTCLDY WITH LOWS SAT NGT IN THE 60S... AND WARMER HIGHS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 80S WITH CONTINUATION OF HUMID
CONDITIONS.

SUN NGT-MON... THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PASSING
TO OUR NORTH PULLING WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT INTERACTION TO ALLOW FOR LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF MAINLY LATER SUNDAY
EVE AND OVERNIGHT WITH INITIAL WAVE OF PCPN LENDS A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED MON AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO PASSING UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION... WHICH IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

MON NGT-THU... LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT AND TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GENERAL SUGGESTION OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WOULD LEND SUPPORT
TO FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE CWA... BUT GIVEN POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAVE TO UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MUCH
OF AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD FOR NOW AND AWAIT BETTER CLARIFICATION
ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES. TEMPS OVERALL LOOK
TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE MS
RVR. IFR FOG IN VCNTY OF DBQ TO LIFT BY 14Z. LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TEMPORARILY SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...BUT SOUTH WINDS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN AS
MORNING PROGRESSES. THEN MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE VFR WITH SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS OF 8-15KTS. CONDITIONS TO THEN DETERIORATE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WITH EXPECTED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL IA. CID TO POSSIBLY IMPACTED BY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON...THE
OTHER SITES 1 TO 3 HRS LATER. DID GENERAL LOWERING OF CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW THIS EVENING...BUT HEAVY RAIN IN ROBUST SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
TEMPORARILY DROP VSBYS AND CIGS FURTHER DOWN THAN CURRENTLY FCST
AS THEY PASS BY. AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP MOVES EAST OF THE
SITES LATE TONIGHT AFTER 07Z SAT AM...INCOMING CIGS TO BE MVFR WITH
SOME FOG OF 3-5SM INTO SAT MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 290851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...WILL WALK OUT ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA
BY MID MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OR ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
OTHER SHOWERS OR STORMS TO POP UP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. MUCH OF THE CWA COULD BE DRY AFTER 12-14Z THIS
MORNING AS THE WING AND ASSOCIATED LEAD VORT LIFTS UP INTO MN AND
WI. THERE IS A SECONDARY LLVL CONVERGENT ZONE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF IL THIS MORNING THAT COULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS FESTERING IN
THE FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED COVERAGE OR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MAIN UPPER WAVE/VORT COMPLEX SEEN NOW ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS KS INTO OK LOOKS TO LIFT UP ACRS THE MO RVR
VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN IA BY THIS EVENING. ALL SIGNS SUGGEST ANOTHER
ASSOCIATED LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL GATHER STRENGTH
AND PUSH ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY EVENING. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY
BUILD UP WHICH IS A BIG UNCERTAINTY...IF TEMPS COULD AT LEAST REACH
THE MID 80S WITH SFC DPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50+ MPH AND HALF INCH
HAIL. SFC WARM FRONT RETREAT SPEED AND TIMING AND ADDITIONAL WAA TYPE
CLOUDS TO BE BIG FACTORS...BUT WILL BANK ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE TO HELP LLVL WARM PUSH UP THROUGH THE CWA AND LLVL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH EXTENT OF MIXING...EVEN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MORE
SUN AND DEEPER MIXING IN THE THERMAL PROFILES ADVECTING UP ACRS THE
AREA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. IF TEMPS COULD
APPROACH THESE VALUES...A BETTER CHC FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A STORM
CLUSTER DEVELOPING A SFC COLD POOL AND MIXING INTO A HIGHER CAPE
FIELD. WILL PLAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD OF THE
POTENTIAL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE WARM FRONT MAKING HEADWAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SFC WINDS
LEADING TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OF COURSE
ANOTHER DAY WITH BIG BUST POTENTIAL...MORE CLOUDS AND FRONTAL HOLD UP
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND MORE
SUN IN THE SOUTH COULD MAKE FOR SOME UPPER 80S OR EVEN A 90.

TONIGHT...AS THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES ACRS CENTRAL IA
BY MIDNIGHT...MAIN LIFT WINDOW ACRS EASTERN IA INTO NORTHWESTERN IL
WILL OCCUR FROM 00Z-07Z OR SO AND EXPECT MOST COVERAGE OF A PRECIP
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE CWA DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH POPS WARRANTED TONIGHT. SOME WINGS OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WITH PRECIPITAL WATER FEED OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES
THIS EVENING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35+ KTS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN A GOOD BET WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES BY THE
TIME THE ACTIVITY STARTS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z SAT MORNING. MOST AREAS FROM 0.45 TO 1 INCH. IN AREAS THAT
GET HIT REPEATEDLY...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY WITH A
CHANCE AT EVEN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY... BUT WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME REDEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTN WITH SECONDARY
VORT MAX ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OTHERWISE... HUMID WITH SKIES BECOMING PTSUNNY AND HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SAT NGT-SUN... MAINLY DRY PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN OVER REGION IN WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO PTCLDY WITH LOWS SAT NGT IN THE 60S... AND WARMER HIGHS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 80S WITH CONTINUATION OF HUMID
CONDITIONS.

SUN NGT-MON... THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PASSING
TO OUR NORTH PULLING WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT INTERACTION TO ALLOW FOR LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF MAINLY LATER SUNDAY
EVE AND OVERNIGHT WITH INITIAL WAVE OF PCPN LENDS A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED MON AFTN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO PASSING UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION... WHICH IS
A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

MON NGT-THU... LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT AND TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GENERAL SUGGESTION OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WOULD LEND SUPPORT
TO FRONT STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE CWA... BUT GIVEN POOR MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAVE TO UNFORTUNATELY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MUCH
OF AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD FOR NOW AND AWAIT BETTER CLARIFICATION
ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES. TEMPS OVERALL LOOK
TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING IFR AND SOME MVFR CLOUDS MOSTLY AT CID/DBQ FROM TODAY/S
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFTER 29/18Z AS UPPER
TROUGH PASSES...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BASES OF 1-3K AGL. THIS IS HANDLED
AS A PROB30 GROUP. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 290431
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IOWA...GENERALLY WEAKENED THIS MORNING AS THE MCV MOVED NORTH OF THE
MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN ITS WAKE...THE TRAILING EDGE HAS BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...NOW IN SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO MISSOURI. WE ARE
SEEING HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FOCUSES WEST AGAIN FOR LATE NIGHT
STORMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR EVENT THAT IS ONGOING TO END BY EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST 1/2...WHILE NEW STORMS FIRE WELL TO THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPORADICALLY FIRE UP
ON THIS OUTFLOW TONIGHT...SO WE WILL NOT GO DRY...BUT RATHER
ISOLATED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MANY DRY HOURS...BEFORE AN ACTIVE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT MAY BE DELAYED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY FOR OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...A LOW POP
IS INCLUDED TO COVER A CHAOTIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC WAVE DRIVING THE FRONTAL RAINS SHOULD
MAINLY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE FRIDAYS HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM AND HUMID DAY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORT WILL COME FROM A RATHER SHARP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS ANOTHER NOTCH...INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE END UP ISSUING A WARNING OR TWO...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MEAN A MORE ROBUST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS MORE BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
WITH ENERGY REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW POPS FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND ARE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING IFR AND SOME MVFR CLOUDS MOSTLY AT CID/DBQ FROM TODAY/S
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFTER 29/18Z AS UPPER
TROUGH PASSES...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BASES OF 1-3K AGL. THIS IS HANDLED
AS A PROB30 GROUP. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 290431
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IOWA...GENERALLY WEAKENED THIS MORNING AS THE MCV MOVED NORTH OF THE
MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN ITS WAKE...THE TRAILING EDGE HAS BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...NOW IN SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO MISSOURI. WE ARE
SEEING HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FOCUSES WEST AGAIN FOR LATE NIGHT
STORMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR EVENT THAT IS ONGOING TO END BY EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST 1/2...WHILE NEW STORMS FIRE WELL TO THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPORADICALLY FIRE UP
ON THIS OUTFLOW TONIGHT...SO WE WILL NOT GO DRY...BUT RATHER
ISOLATED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MANY DRY HOURS...BEFORE AN ACTIVE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT MAY BE DELAYED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY FOR OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...A LOW POP
IS INCLUDED TO COVER A CHAOTIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC WAVE DRIVING THE FRONTAL RAINS SHOULD
MAINLY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE FRIDAYS HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM AND HUMID DAY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORT WILL COME FROM A RATHER SHARP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS ANOTHER NOTCH...INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE END UP ISSUING A WARNING OR TWO...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MEAN A MORE ROBUST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS MORE BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
WITH ENERGY REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW POPS FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND ARE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING IFR AND SOME MVFR CLOUDS MOSTLY AT CID/DBQ FROM TODAY/S
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFTER 29/18Z AS UPPER
TROUGH PASSES...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BASES OF 1-3K AGL. THIS IS HANDLED
AS A PROB30 GROUP. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 282350
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IOWA...GENERALLY WEAKENED THIS MORNING AS THE MCV MOVED NORTH OF THE
MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN ITS WAKE...THE TRAILING EDGE HAS BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...NOW IN SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO MISSOURI. WE ARE
SEEING HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FOCUSES WEST AGAIN FOR LATE NIGHT
STORMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR EVENT THAT IS ONGOING TO END BY EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST 1/2...WHILE NEW STORMS FIRE WELL TO THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPORADICALLY FIRE UP
ON THIS OUTFLOW TONIGHT...SO WE WILL NOT GO DRY...BUT RATHER
ISOLATED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MANY DRY HOURS...BEFORE AN ACTIVE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT MAY BE DELAYED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY FOR OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...A LOW POP
IS INCLUDED TO COVER A CHAOTIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC WAVE DRIVING THE FRONTAL RAINS SHOULD
MAINLY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE FRIDAYS HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM AND HUMID DAY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORT WILL COME FROM A RATHER SHARP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS ANOTHER NOTCH...INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE END UP ISSUING A WARNING OR TWO...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MEAN A MORE ROBUST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS MORE BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
WITH ENERGY REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW POPS FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND ARE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING LOW IFR AND MVFR CLOUDS MOSTLY AT CID/DBQ FROM TODAY/S
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFTER 29/18Z AS UPPER TROUGH
PASSES...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONNS IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BASES OF 1-3K AGL. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 282350
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IOWA...GENERALLY WEAKENED THIS MORNING AS THE MCV MOVED NORTH OF THE
MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN ITS WAKE...THE TRAILING EDGE HAS BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...NOW IN SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO MISSOURI. WE ARE
SEEING HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FOCUSES WEST AGAIN FOR LATE NIGHT
STORMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR EVENT THAT IS ONGOING TO END BY EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST 1/2...WHILE NEW STORMS FIRE WELL TO THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPORADICALLY FIRE UP
ON THIS OUTFLOW TONIGHT...SO WE WILL NOT GO DRY...BUT RATHER
ISOLATED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MANY DRY HOURS...BEFORE AN ACTIVE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT MAY BE DELAYED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY FOR OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...A LOW POP
IS INCLUDED TO COVER A CHAOTIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC WAVE DRIVING THE FRONTAL RAINS SHOULD
MAINLY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE FRIDAYS HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM AND HUMID DAY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORT WILL COME FROM A RATHER SHARP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS ANOTHER NOTCH...INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE END UP ISSUING A WARNING OR TWO...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MEAN A MORE ROBUST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS MORE BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
WITH ENERGY REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW POPS FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND ARE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LINGERING LOW IFR AND MVFR CLOUDS MOSTLY AT CID/DBQ FROM TODAY/S
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HENCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY AFTER 29/18Z AS UPPER TROUGH
PASSES...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONNS IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BASES OF 1-3K AGL. SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281935
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IOWA...GENERALLY WEAKENED THIS MORNING AS THE MCV MOVED NORTH OF THE
MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN ITS WAKE...THE TRAILING EDGE HAS BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...NOW IN SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO MISSOURI. WE ARE
SEEING HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FOCUSES WEST AGAIN FOR LATE NIGHT
STORMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR EVENT THAT IS ONGOING TO END BY EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST 1/2...WHILE NEW STORMS FIRE WELL TO THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPORADICALLY FIRE UP
ON THIS OUTFLOW TONIGHT...SO WE WILL NOT GO DRY...BUT RATHER
ISOLATED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MANY DRY HOURS...BEFORE AN ACTIVE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT MAY BE DELAYED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY FOR OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...A LOW POP
IS INCLUDED TO COVER A CHAOTIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC WAVE DRIVING THE FRONTAL RAINS SHOULD
MAINLY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE FRIDAYS HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM AND HUMID DAY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORT WILL COME FROM A RATHER SHARP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS ANOTHER NOTCH...INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE END UP ISSUING A WARNING OR TWO...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MEAN A MORE ROBUST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS MORE BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
WITH ENERGY REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW POPS FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND ARE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH VERY INFREQUENT
LIGHTNING EMBEDDED IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA TODAY.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AT CID...MLI...AND DBQ
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 MILES MOST
OF THE DAY...BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS 3 MILES IN MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 12 KTS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS CONDITIONS ARE MOST CONFIDENTLY
DRY...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG IS
NEEDING TO BE WATCHED FOR WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILE VISIBILITIES AS
MOIST WARM AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FRIDAY...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN...WITH LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED THROUGH NOON.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281935
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IOWA...GENERALLY WEAKENED THIS MORNING AS THE MCV MOVED NORTH OF THE
MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN ITS WAKE...THE TRAILING EDGE HAS BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS...NOW IN SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO MISSOURI. WE ARE
SEEING HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FOCUSES WEST AGAIN FOR LATE NIGHT
STORMS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR EVENT THAT IS ONGOING TO END BY EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST 1/2...WHILE NEW STORMS FIRE WELL TO THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPORADICALLY FIRE UP
ON THIS OUTFLOW TONIGHT...SO WE WILL NOT GO DRY...BUT RATHER
ISOLATED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE MANY DRY HOURS...BEFORE AN ACTIVE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT MAY BE DELAYED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRY DAY FOR OUR CWA. EITHER WAY...A LOW POP
IS INCLUDED TO COVER A CHAOTIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE. THE LARGE SYNOPTIC WAVE DRIVING THE FRONTAL RAINS SHOULD
MAINLY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE FRIDAYS HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM AND HUMID DAY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUPPORT WILL COME FROM A RATHER SHARP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS ANOTHER NOTCH...INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. RELATIVELY MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE END UP ISSUING A WARNING OR TWO...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EAST...FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MEAN A MORE ROBUST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS MORE BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
WITH ENERGY REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW POPS FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND ARE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH VERY INFREQUENT
LIGHTNING EMBEDDED IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA TODAY.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AT CID...MLI...AND DBQ
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 MILES MOST
OF THE DAY...BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS 3 MILES IN MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 12 KTS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS CONDITIONS ARE MOST CONFIDENTLY
DRY...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG IS
NEEDING TO BE WATCHED FOR WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILE VISIBILITIES AS
MOIST WARM AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FRIDAY...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN...WITH LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED THROUGH NOON.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 281717
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1217 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

I HAVE UPDATED SEVERAL TIMES TODAY TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR TRENDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ADVANCING NORTHEAST. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF
BROAD MOIST ADVECTION..AND SEEM UNINHIBITED BY LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
THE DIURNAL STRATIFICATION HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER COVERAGE...AND
HIGH POPS TODAY...BUT NOT HIGHER QPF. AN AXIS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 RAINS
LOOKS TO GENERALLY LINE UP WITH OTTUMWA TO CEDAR RAPIDS
TODAY...OTHERWISE...AMOUNTS MAY BE VERY LOW...LESS THAN 0.2.

ERVIN

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TWEAK TIMING AND POPS FOR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LARGE MCS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IA AND FAR EASTERN NEB. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEMONSTRATE STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AXIS
THAN BOTH SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
ADVERTISED. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND MCV IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
LOOPS OVER FAR WESTERN IA...WITH A SMALLER MCV IN S CENTRAL IA...
WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS EVEN AS THE NOCTURNAL JET VEERS AND DIMINISHES.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN
THE S CENTRAL IA CONVECTION...SUGGESTING RATES AS HIGH AS .25
INCHES PER HOUR ON AVERAGE LIKELY AS IT REACHES INTO THE FFL...CID
AND IND CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS CHANNELING
A RELATIVELY COOL...DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WAS NOT FAR TO THE WEST...AS A LARGE
MCS WAS OVER SE NEB INTO SW IA...OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG
THETAE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
JET AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WAS BEING FED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER
NW CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REACHING FROM EASTERN OK N-NE INTO EASTERN IA. AT THE
SURFACE...MSAS PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR STL W-NW ACROSS MO INTO NORTHERN KS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WAS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH...READINGS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER
60S OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND MCS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS

TODAY...NEAR CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS THE MCS COMPLEX LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EVENING ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MODEL FORCING AND QPF
FIELDS NOW FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE MAINTAINED.
HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST QPF OF ONE HALF TO NEARLY ONE INCH FOR TODAY
IN THIS AREA...WITH GENERALLY ONLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
AND LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OUTSIDE THE FAR NW...SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S CENTRAL AND NORTH...WITH
THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS WI INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT MAY
STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THE UPPER
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THUS THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE MORNING HOURS COULD
BE DRY. AS SUCH...POPS FOR THE MORNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO REFLECT A
MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED NATURE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

BETTER MOISTURE STARTS ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME
FORCING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST FORCING IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA.
WHAT MOISTURE/FORCING THAT IS PRESENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MUCH STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A WEAK FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST UP TO SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY ON...
SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY. THERE HAS BEEN A REASONABLE SIGNAL
DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL
TIMING...THE MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON ITS TIMING. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH VERY INFREQUENT
LIGHTNING EMBEDDED IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA TODAY.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AT CID...MLI...AND DBQ
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 MILES MOST
OF THE DAY...BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS 3 MILES IN MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 12 KTS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS CONDITIONS ARE MOST CONFIDENTLY
DRY...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG IS
NEEDING TO BE WATCHED FOR WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILE VISIBILITIES AS
MOIST WARM AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FRIDAY...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN...WITH LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED THROUGH NOON.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281717
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1217 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

I HAVE UPDATED SEVERAL TIMES TODAY TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR TRENDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ADVANCING NORTHEAST. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF
BROAD MOIST ADVECTION..AND SEEM UNINHIBITED BY LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
THE DIURNAL STRATIFICATION HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER COVERAGE...AND
HIGH POPS TODAY...BUT NOT HIGHER QPF. AN AXIS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 RAINS
LOOKS TO GENERALLY LINE UP WITH OTTUMWA TO CEDAR RAPIDS
TODAY...OTHERWISE...AMOUNTS MAY BE VERY LOW...LESS THAN 0.2.

ERVIN

UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TWEAK TIMING AND POPS FOR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LARGE MCS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IA AND FAR EASTERN NEB. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEMONSTRATE STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AXIS
THAN BOTH SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
ADVERTISED. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND MCV IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
LOOPS OVER FAR WESTERN IA...WITH A SMALLER MCV IN S CENTRAL IA...
WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS EVEN AS THE NOCTURNAL JET VEERS AND DIMINISHES.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN
THE S CENTRAL IA CONVECTION...SUGGESTING RATES AS HIGH AS .25
INCHES PER HOUR ON AVERAGE LIKELY AS IT REACHES INTO THE FFL...CID
AND IND CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS CHANNELING
A RELATIVELY COOL...DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WAS NOT FAR TO THE WEST...AS A LARGE
MCS WAS OVER SE NEB INTO SW IA...OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG
THETAE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
JET AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WAS BEING FED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER
NW CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REACHING FROM EASTERN OK N-NE INTO EASTERN IA. AT THE
SURFACE...MSAS PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR STL W-NW ACROSS MO INTO NORTHERN KS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WAS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH...READINGS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER
60S OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND MCS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS

TODAY...NEAR CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS THE MCS COMPLEX LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EVENING ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MODEL FORCING AND QPF
FIELDS NOW FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE MAINTAINED.
HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST QPF OF ONE HALF TO NEARLY ONE INCH FOR TODAY
IN THIS AREA...WITH GENERALLY ONLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
AND LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OUTSIDE THE FAR NW...SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S CENTRAL AND NORTH...WITH
THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS WI INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT MAY
STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THE UPPER
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THUS THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE MORNING HOURS COULD
BE DRY. AS SUCH...POPS FOR THE MORNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO REFLECT A
MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED NATURE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

BETTER MOISTURE STARTS ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME
FORCING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST FORCING IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA.
WHAT MOISTURE/FORCING THAT IS PRESENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MUCH STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A WEAK FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST UP TO SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY ON...
SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY. THERE HAS BEEN A REASONABLE SIGNAL
DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL
TIMING...THE MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON ITS TIMING. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH VERY INFREQUENT
LIGHTNING EMBEDDED IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA TODAY.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AT CID...MLI...AND DBQ
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 MILES MOST
OF THE DAY...BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS 3 MILES IN MODERATE RAIN AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 12 KTS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS CONDITIONS ARE MOST CONFIDENTLY
DRY...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG IS
NEEDING TO BE WATCHED FOR WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 MILE VISIBILITIES AS
MOIST WARM AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FRIDAY...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN...WITH LOW COVERAGE
EXPECTED THROUGH NOON.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 281218
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
718 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TWEAK TIMING AND POPS FOR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LARGE MCS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IA AND FAR EASTERN NEB. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEMONSTRATE STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AXIS
THAN BOTH SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
ADVERTISED. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND MCV IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
LOOPS OVER FAR WESTERN IA...WITH A SMALLER MCV IN S CENTRAL IA...
WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS EVEN AS THE NOCTURNAL JET VEERS AND DIMINISHES.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN
THE S CENTRAL IA CONVECTION...SUGGESTING RATES AS HIGH AS .25
INCHES PER HOUR ON AVERAGE LIKELY AS IT REACHES INTO THE FFL...CID
AND IND CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS CHANNELING
A RELATIVELY COOL...DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WAS NOT FAR TO THE WEST...AS A LARGE
MCS WAS OVER SE NEB INTO SW IA...OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG
THETAE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
JET AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WAS BEING FED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER
NW CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REACHING FROM EASTERN OK N-NE INTO EASTERN IA. AT THE
SURFACE...MSAS PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR STL W-NW ACROSS MO INTO NORTHERN KS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WAS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH...READINGS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER
60S OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND MCS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS

TODAY...NEAR CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS THE MCS COMPLEX LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EVENING ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MODEL FORCING AND QPF
FIELDS NOW FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE MAINTAINED.
HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST QPF OF ONE HALF TO NEARLY ONE INCH FOR TODAY
IN THIS AREA...WITH GENERALLY ONLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
AND LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OUTSIDE THE FAR NW...SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S CENTRAL AND NORTH...WITH
THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS WI INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT MAY
STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THE UPPER
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THUS THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE MORNING HOURS COULD
BE DRY. AS SUCH...POPS FOR THE MORNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO REFLECT A
MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED NATURE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

BETTER MOISTURE STARTS ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME
FORCING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST FORCING IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA.
WHAT MOISTURE/FORCING THAT IS PRESENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MUCH STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A WEAK FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST UP TO SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY ON...
SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY. THERE HAS BEEN A REASONABLE SIGNAL
DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL
TIMING...THE MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON ITS TIMING. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLE LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 281218
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
718 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TWEAK TIMING AND POPS FOR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LARGE MCS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IA AND FAR EASTERN NEB. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEMONSTRATE STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AXIS
THAN BOTH SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
ADVERTISED. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND MCV IS EVIDENT ON RADAR
LOOPS OVER FAR WESTERN IA...WITH A SMALLER MCV IN S CENTRAL IA...
WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS EVEN AS THE NOCTURNAL JET VEERS AND DIMINISHES.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN
THE S CENTRAL IA CONVECTION...SUGGESTING RATES AS HIGH AS .25
INCHES PER HOUR ON AVERAGE LIKELY AS IT REACHES INTO THE FFL...CID
AND IND CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS CHANNELING
A RELATIVELY COOL...DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WAS NOT FAR TO THE WEST...AS A LARGE
MCS WAS OVER SE NEB INTO SW IA...OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG
THETAE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
JET AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WAS BEING FED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER
NW CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REACHING FROM EASTERN OK N-NE INTO EASTERN IA. AT THE
SURFACE...MSAS PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR STL W-NW ACROSS MO INTO NORTHERN KS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WAS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH...READINGS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER
60S OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND MCS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS

TODAY...NEAR CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS THE MCS COMPLEX LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EVENING ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MODEL FORCING AND QPF
FIELDS NOW FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE MAINTAINED.
HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST QPF OF ONE HALF TO NEARLY ONE INCH FOR TODAY
IN THIS AREA...WITH GENERALLY ONLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
AND LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OUTSIDE THE FAR NW...SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S CENTRAL AND NORTH...WITH
THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS WI INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT MAY
STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THE UPPER
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THUS THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE MORNING HOURS COULD
BE DRY. AS SUCH...POPS FOR THE MORNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO REFLECT A
MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED NATURE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

BETTER MOISTURE STARTS ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME
FORCING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST FORCING IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA.
WHAT MOISTURE/FORCING THAT IS PRESENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MUCH STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A WEAK FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST UP TO SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY ON...
SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY. THERE HAS BEEN A REASONABLE SIGNAL
DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL
TIMING...THE MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON ITS TIMING. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTH. ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLE LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 280838
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS CHANNELING
A RELATIVELY COOL...DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WAS NOT FAR TO THE WEST...AS A LARGE
MCS WAS OVER SE NEB INTO SW IA...OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG
THETAE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
JET AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WAS BEING FED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER
NW CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REACHING FROM EASTERN OK N-NE INTO EASTERN IA. AT THE
SURFACE...MSAS PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR STL W-NW ACROSS MO INTO NORTHERN KS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WAS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH...READINGS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER
60S OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND MCS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS

TODAY...NEAR CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS THE MCS COMPLEX LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EVENING ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MODEL FORCING AND QPF
FIELDS NOW FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE MAINTAINED.
HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST QPF OF ONE HALF TO NEARLY ONE INCH FOR TODAY
IN THIS AREA...WITH GENERALLY ONLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
AND LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OUTSIDE THE FAR NW...SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S CENTRAL AND NORTH...WITH
THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS WI INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT MAY
STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THE UPPER
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THUS THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE MORNING HOURS COULD
BE DRY. AS SUCH...POPS FOR THE MORNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO REFLECT A
MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED NATURE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

BETTER MOISTURE STARTS ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME
FORCING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST FORCING IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA.
WHAT MOISTURE/FORCING THAT IS PRESENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MUCH STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A WEAK FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST UP TO SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY ON...
SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY. THERE HAS BEEN A REASONABLE SIGNAL
DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL
TIMING...THE MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON ITS TIMING. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...BASES AOA 4K AGL THROUGH 28/09Z
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AFTER
28/10Z...PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS.
AFTER 28/18Z...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER END
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DBQ/CID TERMINALS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 280838
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS CHANNELING
A RELATIVELY COOL...DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WAS NOT FAR TO THE WEST...AS A LARGE
MCS WAS OVER SE NEB INTO SW IA...OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG
THETAE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
JET AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WAS BEING FED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER
NW CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REACHING FROM EASTERN OK N-NE INTO EASTERN IA. AT THE
SURFACE...MSAS PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR STL W-NW ACROSS MO INTO NORTHERN KS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WAS RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHILE TO THE NORTH...READINGS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER
60S OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND MCS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS

TODAY...NEAR CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS HAS THE MCS COMPLEX LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHERN MN BY EVENING ALONG
THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MODEL FORCING AND QPF
FIELDS NOW FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHEST POPS ARE MAINTAINED.
HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST QPF OF ONE HALF TO NEARLY ONE INCH FOR TODAY
IN THIS AREA...WITH GENERALLY ONLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
AND LOWER POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OUTSIDE THE FAR NW...SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 70S CENTRAL AND NORTH...WITH
THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS WI INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT MAY
STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLE WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THE UPPER
RIDGE...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THUS THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE MORNING HOURS COULD
BE DRY. AS SUCH...POPS FOR THE MORNING HAS BEEN LOWERED TO REFLECT A
MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED NATURE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

BETTER MOISTURE STARTS ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME
FORCING. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST FORCING IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA.
WHAT MOISTURE/FORCING THAT IS PRESENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MUCH STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A WEAK FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST UP TO SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY ON...
SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE DRY. THERE HAS BEEN A REASONABLE SIGNAL
DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL
TIMING...THE MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON ITS TIMING. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RECENT PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...BASES AOA 4K AGL THROUGH 28/09Z
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AFTER
28/10Z...PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS.
AFTER 28/18Z...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER END
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DBQ/CID TERMINALS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 280421
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1121 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 PM CDT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HELD AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. DRIER AIR WAS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STILL ON TARGET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...WITH AREAL
AVERAGES OF AN INCH OR MORE BASED ON HPC QPF. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND
NORTH...MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH. HOWEVER...MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME EXTREME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND/OR RAINFALL RATES TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...AND THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ON
THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IOWA AND ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NORTH ON I80. BOUNDARIES REMAINING
FROM FRIDAY MORNINGS STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW/FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF MULTIPLE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. EXACTLY WHERE EACH COMPLEX DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WILL LATER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE NEXT
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP. AS STATED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE...THERE WILL
BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.. LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...BASES AOA 4K AGL THROUGH 28/09Z
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AFTER
28/10Z...PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS.
AFTER 28/18Z...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER END
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DBQ/CID TERMINALS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 280421
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1121 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 PM CDT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HELD AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. DRIER AIR WAS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STILL ON TARGET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...WITH AREAL
AVERAGES OF AN INCH OR MORE BASED ON HPC QPF. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND
NORTH...MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH. HOWEVER...MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME EXTREME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND/OR RAINFALL RATES TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...AND THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ON
THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IOWA AND ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NORTH ON I80. BOUNDARIES REMAINING
FROM FRIDAY MORNINGS STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW/FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF MULTIPLE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. EXACTLY WHERE EACH COMPLEX DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WILL LATER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE NEXT
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP. AS STATED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE...THERE WILL
BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.. LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...BASES AOA 4K AGL THROUGH 28/09Z
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AFTER
28/10Z...PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS.
AFTER 28/18Z...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER END
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DBQ/CID TERMINALS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 272337
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 PM CDT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HELD AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. DRIER AIR WAS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STILL ON TARGET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...WITH AREAL
AVERAGES OF AN INCH OR MORE BASED ON HPC QPF. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND
NORTH...MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH. HOWEVER...MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME EXTREME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND/OR RAINFALL RATES TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...AND THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ON
THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IOWA AND ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NORTH ON I80. BOUNDARIES REMAINING
FROM FRIDAY MORNINGS STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW/FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF MULTIPLE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. EXACTLY WHERE EACH COMPLEX DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WILL LATER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE NEXT
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP. AS STATED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE...THERE WILL
BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.. LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...BASES AOA 4K AGL THROUGH 28/07Z
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AFTER
28/07Z...PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
28/18Z...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER END VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT DBQ/CID TERMINALS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 272337
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 PM CDT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HELD AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. DRIER AIR WAS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STILL ON TARGET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...WITH AREAL
AVERAGES OF AN INCH OR MORE BASED ON HPC QPF. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND
NORTH...MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH. HOWEVER...MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME EXTREME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND/OR RAINFALL RATES TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...AND THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ON
THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IOWA AND ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NORTH ON I80. BOUNDARIES REMAINING
FROM FRIDAY MORNINGS STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW/FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF MULTIPLE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. EXACTLY WHERE EACH COMPLEX DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WILL LATER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE NEXT
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP. AS STATED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE...THERE WILL
BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.. LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...BASES AOA 4K AGL THROUGH 28/07Z
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AFTER
28/07Z...PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
28/18Z...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER END VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT DBQ/CID TERMINALS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 272047
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 PM CDT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HELD AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. DRIER AIR WAS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STILL ON TARGET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...WITH AREAL
AVERAGES OF AN INCH OR MORE BASED ON HPC QPF. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND
NORTH...MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH. HOWEVER...MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME EXTREME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND/OR RAINFALL RATES TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...AND THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ON
THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IOWA AND ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NORTH ON I80. BOUNDARIES REMAINING
FROM FRIDAY MORNINGS STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW/FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF MULTIPLE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. EXACTLY WHERE EACH COMPLEX DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WILL LATER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE NEXT
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP. AS STATED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE...THERE WILL
BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.. LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INVOF KBRL THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING TSRA
GROUPS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KCID/KDBQ/KBRL BETWEEN 09Z-11Z.
TIMING EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 272047
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 PM CDT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HELD AFTERNOON
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. DRIER AIR WAS IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STILL ON TARGET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...WITH AREAL
AVERAGES OF AN INCH OR MORE BASED ON HPC QPF. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY CENTRAL AND
NORTH...MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH. HOWEVER...MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME EXTREME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND/OR RAINFALL RATES TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING...AND THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY...AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ON
THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IOWA AND ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE NORTH ON I80. BOUNDARIES REMAINING
FROM FRIDAY MORNINGS STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW/FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF MULTIPLE NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. EXACTLY WHERE EACH COMPLEX DEVELOPS
AND MOVES WILL LATER DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE NEXT
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP. AS STATED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE...THERE WILL
BE STRETCHES OF TIME WHEN SKIES WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.. LONG RANGE CONSENSUS MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INVOF KBRL THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING TSRA
GROUPS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KCID/KDBQ/KBRL BETWEEN 09Z-11Z.
TIMING EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 271824
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
124 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOP-WRF SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PER THE LATEST SWOMCD...AN
ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE STORM IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE EXTREME SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STILL ON
TARGET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 AM...MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MN...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN IL AND MO. AREA RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED...ELEVATED
WEAK SHOWERS STREAMING EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO
THE QUAD CITIES WITH A ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE IA AND W CENTRAL
IL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND SO FAR SLOW MOVING...MCS WAS ALONG
THE IA/NE/MO BORDER AREA...IN AN AXIS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT 850
THETAE CONVERGENCE. VERY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE
MN HIGH WAS PULLING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE
RAP...WHICH HAD A GOOD CORRELATION WITH THE STORMS IN SW IA...WOULD
SUPPORT THE STORM CLUSTER SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT OR MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL RAMP UP LIKE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR IN SE IA...WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LIKELY INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ALL MODELS HAVE THE NEXT MCS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OR NW
IA AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPANDING EAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH MUCH SLOWER TIMING RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT
IN THE EAST AND LATER ONSET CENTRAL AND WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR THREAT AS MCS GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE
TOOLS POINT TOWARD THE BEST FORCING NOT ADVANCING MUCH PAST NW OR
POSSIBLY N CENTRAL IA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THERE SHOULD BE A RESPECTABLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH A WING OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS NOT AS CLEAR...ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.

BOUNDARIES FROM THE FRIDAY MORNING STORM COMPLEX WOULD AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONT OR BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY ON...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WHERE EACH DEVELOPS AND MOVES AFFECTS
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER THAT MAY BE 6-12 HOURS IN DURATION.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR EACH
12 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INVOF KBRL THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING TSRA
GROUPS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KCID/KDBQ/KBRL BETWEEN 09Z-11Z.
TIMING EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 271824
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
124 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND HOP-WRF SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PER THE LATEST SWOMCD...AN
ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE STORM IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE EXTREME SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STILL ON
TARGET FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 AM...MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MN...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN IL AND MO. AREA RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED...ELEVATED
WEAK SHOWERS STREAMING EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO
THE QUAD CITIES WITH A ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE IA AND W CENTRAL
IL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND SO FAR SLOW MOVING...MCS WAS ALONG
THE IA/NE/MO BORDER AREA...IN AN AXIS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT 850
THETAE CONVERGENCE. VERY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE
MN HIGH WAS PULLING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE
RAP...WHICH HAD A GOOD CORRELATION WITH THE STORMS IN SW IA...WOULD
SUPPORT THE STORM CLUSTER SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT OR MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL RAMP UP LIKE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR IN SE IA...WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LIKELY INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ALL MODELS HAVE THE NEXT MCS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OR NW
IA AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPANDING EAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH MUCH SLOWER TIMING RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT
IN THE EAST AND LATER ONSET CENTRAL AND WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR THREAT AS MCS GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE
TOOLS POINT TOWARD THE BEST FORCING NOT ADVANCING MUCH PAST NW OR
POSSIBLY N CENTRAL IA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THERE SHOULD BE A RESPECTABLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH A WING OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS NOT AS CLEAR...ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.

BOUNDARIES FROM THE FRIDAY MORNING STORM COMPLEX WOULD AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONT OR BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY ON...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WHERE EACH DEVELOPS AND MOVES AFFECTS
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER THAT MAY BE 6-12 HOURS IN DURATION.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR EACH
12 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INVOF KBRL THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING TSRA
GROUPS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KCID/KDBQ/KBRL BETWEEN 09Z-11Z.
TIMING EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 271207
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
707 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN MCS MOVING EAST ACROSS NW MO AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL IA WAS
OCCURRING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE AND THETAE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MO...WHICH EXTENDS EAST INTO CENTRAL IL.
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW AND W CENTRAL IA
WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD THETAE ADVECTION AT 850 MB...AND
WAS ALSO DRIFTING EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED TO
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SW TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN ALONG THEIR EASTERN AND NORTHEAST EDGE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE NWRLY FLOW OVER EASTERN IA...AS INDICATED
AT 850 MB ON THE VAD WIND PROFILES AT BOTH KDVN AND KDMX. THE NW
WINDS INDICATED AROUND 15 KTS...WAS POORLY HANDLED BY SHORT TERM
MODELS THAT GENERALLY DEPICTED A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 AM...MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MN...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN IL AND MO. AREA RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED...ELEVATED
WEAK SHOWERS STREAMING EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO
THE QUAD CITIES WITH A ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE IA AND W CENTRAL
IL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND SO FAR SLOW MOVING...MCS WAS ALONG
THE IA/NE/MO BORDER AREA...IN AN AXIS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT 850
THETAE CONVERGENCE. VERY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE
MN HIGH WAS PULLING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE
RAP...WHICH HAD A GOOD CORRELATION WITH THE STORMS IN SW IA...WOULD
SUPPORT THE STORM CLUSTER SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT OR MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL RAMP UP LIKE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR IN SE IA...WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LIKELY INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ALL MODELS HAVE THE NEXT MCS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OR NW
IA AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPANDING EAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH MUCH SLOWER TIMING RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT
IN THE EAST AND LATER ONSET CENTRAL AND WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR THREAT AS MCS GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE
TOOLS POINT TOWARD THE BEST FORCING NOT ADVANCING MUCH PAST NW OR
POSSIBLY N CENTRAL IA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THERE SHOULD BE A RESPECTABLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH A WING OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS NOT AS CLEAR...ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.

BOUNDARIES FROM THE FRIDAY MORNING STORM COMPLEX WOULD AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONT OR BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY ON...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WHERE EACH DEVELOPS AND MOVES AFFECTS
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER THAT MAY BE 6-12 HOURS IN DURATION.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR EACH
12 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE CID AND MLI TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT...A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND MAY ADVANCE
EASTWARD TO AFFECT THE CID...DBQ AND MLI TERMINALS TOWARD SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THUS ONLY PROB30
GROUPS WERE USED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 271207
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
707 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN MCS MOVING EAST ACROSS NW MO AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL IA WAS
OCCURRING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE AND THETAE
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN MO...WHICH EXTENDS EAST INTO CENTRAL IL.
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW AND W CENTRAL IA
WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD THETAE ADVECTION AT 850 MB...AND
WAS ALSO DRIFTING EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED TO
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SW TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN ALONG THEIR EASTERN AND NORTHEAST EDGE AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE NWRLY FLOW OVER EASTERN IA...AS INDICATED
AT 850 MB ON THE VAD WIND PROFILES AT BOTH KDVN AND KDMX. THE NW
WINDS INDICATED AROUND 15 KTS...WAS POORLY HANDLED BY SHORT TERM
MODELS THAT GENERALLY DEPICTED A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 AM...MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MN...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN IL AND MO. AREA RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED...ELEVATED
WEAK SHOWERS STREAMING EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO
THE QUAD CITIES WITH A ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE IA AND W CENTRAL
IL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND SO FAR SLOW MOVING...MCS WAS ALONG
THE IA/NE/MO BORDER AREA...IN AN AXIS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT 850
THETAE CONVERGENCE. VERY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE
MN HIGH WAS PULLING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE
RAP...WHICH HAD A GOOD CORRELATION WITH THE STORMS IN SW IA...WOULD
SUPPORT THE STORM CLUSTER SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT OR MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL RAMP UP LIKE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR IN SE IA...WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LIKELY INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ALL MODELS HAVE THE NEXT MCS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OR NW
IA AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPANDING EAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH MUCH SLOWER TIMING RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT
IN THE EAST AND LATER ONSET CENTRAL AND WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR THREAT AS MCS GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE
TOOLS POINT TOWARD THE BEST FORCING NOT ADVANCING MUCH PAST NW OR
POSSIBLY N CENTRAL IA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THERE SHOULD BE A RESPECTABLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH A WING OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS NOT AS CLEAR...ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.

BOUNDARIES FROM THE FRIDAY MORNING STORM COMPLEX WOULD AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONT OR BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY ON...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WHERE EACH DEVELOPS AND MOVES AFFECTS
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER THAT MAY BE 6-12 HOURS IN DURATION.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR EACH
12 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE CID AND MLI TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT...A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND MAY ADVANCE
EASTWARD TO AFFECT THE CID...DBQ AND MLI TERMINALS TOWARD SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THUS ONLY PROB30
GROUPS WERE USED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 270832
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 AM...MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MN...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN IL AND MO. AREA RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED...ELEVATED
WEAK SHOWERS STREAMING EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO
THE QUAD CITIES WITH A ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE IA AND W CENTRAL
IL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND SO FAR SLOW MOVING...MCS WAS ALONG
THE IA/NE/MO BORDER AREA...IN AN AXIS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT 850
THETAE CONVERGENCE. VERY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE
MN HIGH WAS PULLING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE
RAP...WHICH HAD A GOOD CORRELATION WITH THE STORMS IN SW IA...WOULD
SUPPORT THE STORM CLUSTER SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT OR MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL RAMP UP LIKE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR IN SE IA...WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LIKELY INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ALL MODELS HAVE THE NEXT MCS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OR NW
IA AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPANDING EAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH MUCH SLOWER TIMING RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT
IN THE EAST AND LATER ONSET CENTRAL AND WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR THREAT AS MCS GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE
TOOLS POINT TOWARD THE BEST FORCING NOT ADVANCING MUCH PAST NW OR
POSSIBLY N CENTRAL IA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THERE SHOULD BE A RESPECTABLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH A WING OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS NOT AS CLEAR...ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.

BOUNDARIES FROM THE FRIDAY MORNING STORM COMPLEX WOULD AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONT OR BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY ON...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WHERE EACH DEVELOPS AND MOVES AFFECTS
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER THAT MAY BE 6-12 HOURS IN DURATION.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR EACH
12 HOUR PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST ABOUT 27/10Z. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS HANDLED AS A TEMPO
GROUP OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-14Z AT ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH 28/00Z. AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD 28/06Z...BUT
ARE LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 3-7 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AT 3-9 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 270832
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AT 3 AM...MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MN...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN IL AND MO. AREA RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED...ELEVATED
WEAK SHOWERS STREAMING EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO
THE QUAD CITIES WITH A ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE IA AND W CENTRAL
IL. A MORE SIGNIFICANT...AND SO FAR SLOW MOVING...MCS WAS ALONG
THE IA/NE/MO BORDER AREA...IN AN AXIS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT 850
THETAE CONVERGENCE. VERY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF THE
MN HIGH WAS PULLING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
A FEW READINGS NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...ELEVATED THETAE CONVERGENCE FIELDS IN THE
RAP...WHICH HAD A GOOD CORRELATION WITH THE STORMS IN SW IA...WOULD
SUPPORT THE STORM CLUSTER SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT OR MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO SUGGEST THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL RAMP UP LIKE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHER CHANCE POPS ARE
MAINTAINED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR IN SE IA...WHERE
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB CONTINUES THIS MORNING.
BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LIKELY INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...ALL MODELS HAVE THE NEXT MCS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OR NW
IA AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPANDING EAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH MUCH SLOWER TIMING RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT
IN THE EAST AND LATER ONSET CENTRAL AND WEST. HEAVY RAINFALL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR THREAT AS MCS GENERATION AND MAINTENANCE
TOOLS POINT TOWARD THE BEST FORCING NOT ADVANCING MUCH PAST NW OR
POSSIBLY N CENTRAL IA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

THERE SHOULD BE A RESPECTABLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH A WING OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS NOT AS CLEAR...ANOTHER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.

BOUNDARIES FROM THE FRIDAY MORNING STORM COMPLEX WOULD AGAIN PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONT OR BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY ON...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WHERE EACH DEVELOPS AND MOVES AFFECTS
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER THAT MAY BE 6-12 HOURS IN DURATION.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR EACH
12 HOUR PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST ABOUT 27/10Z. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS HANDLED AS A TEMPO
GROUP OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10-14Z AT ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH 28/00Z. AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD 28/06Z...BUT
ARE LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 3-7 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AT 3-9 KTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







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