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000
FXUS63 KDVN 252017 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A CLOSED LOW NEAR KSTJ WITH A LLJ JET FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW THE RAIN RAPIDLY ENDING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND END ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND
MOVES INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTH BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE
SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...SOME VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG MIGHT
DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE.

QUITE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN BUT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REMAIN. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH POTENTIAL REX BLOCKING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...AND COLORADO
REGION. THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER AT DEVELOPING THIS BLOCK
OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE GFS DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRING THE SURFACE HIGH DOWN
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE GEM AND
ECWMF BRING THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THUS THE GFS IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER DURING THE PERIOD WITH WEAKER COOL
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW
POINTS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
STRONGLY AMPLIFY THE 500 HPA PATTERN OVER THE THE LOWER 48 WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE IN
THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL WORK TO DAMPEN THE 500 HPA FLOW AND
RIDGE OVER THE THE CENTRAL US. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE QUICKER AND
STRONG FEATURE THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...IOWA...AND ILLINOIS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL RH AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS APPEAR TOO DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE LIMITED BY ANY CLOUDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO SEE
HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z/26. AFT 00Z/26 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 252017 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A CLOSED LOW NEAR KSTJ WITH A LLJ JET FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW THE RAIN RAPIDLY ENDING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND END ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND
MOVES INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTH BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE
SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...SOME VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG MIGHT
DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE.

QUITE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN BUT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REMAIN. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH POTENTIAL REX BLOCKING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...AND COLORADO
REGION. THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER AT DEVELOPING THIS BLOCK
OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE GFS DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRING THE SURFACE HIGH DOWN
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE GEM AND
ECWMF BRING THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THUS THE GFS IS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER DURING THE PERIOD WITH WEAKER COOL
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW
POINTS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
STRONGLY AMPLIFY THE 500 HPA PATTERN OVER THE THE LOWER 48 WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE IN
THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL WORK TO DAMPEN THE 500 HPA FLOW AND
RIDGE OVER THE THE CENTRAL US. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE QUICKER AND
STRONG FEATURE THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...IOWA...AND ILLINOIS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL RH AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS APPEAR TOO DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE LIMITED BY ANY CLOUDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO SEE
HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z/26. AFT 00Z/26 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 252006
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A CLOSED LOW NEAR KSTJ WITH A LLJ JET FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW THE RAIN RAPIDLY ENDING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND END ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND
MOVES INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTH BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE
SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...SOME VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG MIGHT
DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE.

QUITE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN BUT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REMAIN. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER WIDEST WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH POTENTIAL REX BLOCKING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...AND
COLORADO REGION. THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER AT DEVELOPING
THIS BLOCK OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE GFS DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRING THE SURFACE
HIGH DOWN ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE
GEM AND ECWMF BRING THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THUS THE
GFS IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER DURING THE PERIOD WITH WEAKER
COOL ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEW POINTS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
STRONGLY AMPLIFY THE 500 HPA PATTERN OVER THE THE LOWER 48 WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE IN
THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL WORK TO DAMPEN THE 500 HPA FLOW AND
RIDGE OVER THE THE CENTRAL US. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE QUICKER AND
STRONG FEATURE THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...IOWA...AND ILLINOIS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL RH AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS APPEAR TOO DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
MAY ROBE THE REGION OF ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LIMITED BY ANY CLOUDS. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z/26. AFT 00Z/26 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 252006
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A CLOSED LOW NEAR KSTJ WITH A LLJ JET FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW THE RAIN RAPIDLY ENDING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS JUST NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND END ACROSS THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND
MOVES INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST/SOUTH BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE
SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...SOME VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG MIGHT
DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE.

QUITE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 HPA PATTERN BUT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REMAIN. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER WIDEST WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH POTENTIAL REX BLOCKING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...AND
COLORADO REGION. THE ECWMF AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER AT DEVELOPING
THIS BLOCK OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE GFS DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRING THE SURFACE
HIGH DOWN ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE
GEM AND ECWMF BRING THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THUS THE
GFS IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER DURING THE PERIOD WITH WEAKER
COOL ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEW POINTS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
STRONGLY AMPLIFY THE 500 HPA PATTERN OVER THE THE LOWER 48 WITH DEEP
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LATE IN
THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL WORK TO DAMPEN THE 500 HPA FLOW AND
RIDGE OVER THE THE CENTRAL US. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE QUICKER AND
STRONG FEATURE THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...IOWA...AND ILLINOIS. HOWEVER THE
MODEL RH AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS APPEAR TOO DRY TO
PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
THE MODELS ALSO DEPICT A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WHICH
MAY ROBE THE REGION OF ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LIMITED BY ANY CLOUDS. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z/26. AFT 00Z/26 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 251738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN WRAPPED UP CYCLONE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION...WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE ALOFT
STACKED ALMOST OVERHEAD IN THE SAME AREA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED A LARGE CYCLONICALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT
SECONDARY CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING-FUELED PRECIP SWATH
WAS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM ON NOSE OF IN-WRAPPING DRY
SLOT FROM THE SOUTH. BRISK EAST- NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW ADVECTING
COOL TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ARE STILL IN THE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN IS QUICKLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE QUESTION NOW IS HOW
WARM WILL IT GET WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES ALREADY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE SFC LOW PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS TO JOG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE STL AREA AND
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE CURRENT WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED WING OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SECONDARY WING NOW DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHERN
MO...WILL TAKE OVER AND PUSH ACRS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS BAND FORMING ON CONVERGENT H85 MB 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW THIS
MORNING...BEFORE OCCLUDED FLOW TAKES OVER AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE
ACTIVITY SWITCHES TO MORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEPENING
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.

BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LOOKING TO TAKE SHAPE
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...AND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FAIRFIELD...BRL...SOUTH GALESBURG AREAS. OTHER AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS SWATH TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AS LONG AS THE
DRY PUNCH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMP CONTRAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH MAY MAKE THE UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING/DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW ACCELERATES THE
CLEAR OUT FROM THAT DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT. COOL IN-FLUX MAY
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TO MIX AND PREVENT
MUCH FROST FORMATION. WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS
COOL/FROST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL E-NE WINDS WILL CHANNEL VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD BY TUE
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATING TO MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WILL THUS HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MONITOR IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR BOTH NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PHASING OF
WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY WED...WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST...WHICH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND SPREADS
WARMER AIR AT 850 MB INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND
LITTLE FORCING...DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR WED INTO THU. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN DEPICT GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR FORCING ALOFT TO
JUSTIFY OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z/26. AFT 00Z/26 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 251738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN WRAPPED UP CYCLONE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION...WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE ALOFT
STACKED ALMOST OVERHEAD IN THE SAME AREA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED A LARGE CYCLONICALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT
SECONDARY CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING-FUELED PRECIP SWATH
WAS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM ON NOSE OF IN-WRAPPING DRY
SLOT FROM THE SOUTH. BRISK EAST- NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW ADVECTING
COOL TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ARE STILL IN THE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN IS QUICKLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE QUESTION NOW IS HOW
WARM WILL IT GET WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES ALREADY
AND WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE SFC LOW PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS TO JOG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE STL AREA AND
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE CURRENT WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED WING OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SECONDARY WING NOW DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHERN
MO...WILL TAKE OVER AND PUSH ACRS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS BAND FORMING ON CONVERGENT H85 MB 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW THIS
MORNING...BEFORE OCCLUDED FLOW TAKES OVER AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE
ACTIVITY SWITCHES TO MORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEPENING
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.

BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LOOKING TO TAKE SHAPE
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...AND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FAIRFIELD...BRL...SOUTH GALESBURG AREAS. OTHER AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS SWATH TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AS LONG AS THE
DRY PUNCH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMP CONTRAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH MAY MAKE THE UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING/DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW ACCELERATES THE
CLEAR OUT FROM THAT DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT. COOL IN-FLUX MAY
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TO MIX AND PREVENT
MUCH FROST FORMATION. WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS
COOL/FROST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL E-NE WINDS WILL CHANNEL VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD BY TUE
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATING TO MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WILL THUS HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MONITOR IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR BOTH NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PHASING OF
WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY WED...WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST...WHICH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND SPREADS
WARMER AIR AT 850 MB INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND
LITTLE FORCING...DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR WED INTO THU. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN DEPICT GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR FORCING ALOFT TO
JUSTIFY OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z/26. AFT 00Z/26 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 251155
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN WRAPPED UP CYCLONE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION...WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE ALOFT
STACKED ALMOST OVERHEAD IN THE SAME AREA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED A LARGE CYCLONICALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT
SECONDARY CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING-FUELED PRECIP SWATH
WAS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM ON NOSE OF IN-WRAPPING DRY
SLOT FROM THE SOUTH. BRISK EAST- NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW ADVECTING
COOL TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ARE STILL IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE SFC LOW PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS TO JOG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE STL AREA AND
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE CURRENT WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED WING OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SECONDARY WING NOW DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHERN
MO...WILL TAKE OVER AND PUSH ACRS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS BAND FORMING ON CONVERGENT H85 MB 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW THIS
MORNING...BEFORE OCCLUDED FLOW TAKES OVER AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE
ACTIVITY SWITCHES TO MORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEPENING
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.

BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LOOKING TO TAKE SHAPE
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...AND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FAIRFIELD...BRL...SOUTH GALESBURG AREAS. OTHER AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS SWATH TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AS LONG AS THE
DRY PUNCH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMP CONTRAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH MAY MAKE THE UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING/DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW ACCELERATES THE
CLEAR OUT FROM THAT DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT. COOL IN-FLUX MAY
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TO MIX AND PREVENT
MUCH FROST FORMATION. WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS
COOL/FROST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL E-NE WINDS WILL CHANNEL VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD BY TUE
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATING TO MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WILL THUS HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MONITOR IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR BOTH NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PHASING OF
WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY WED...WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST...WHICH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND SPREADS
WARMER AIR AT 850 MB INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND
LITTLE FORCING...DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR WED INTO THU. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN DEPICT GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR FORCING ALOFT TO
JUSTIFY OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACRS NORTHERN MO WILL WHIRL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT UNTIL THEN THE MLI AND BRL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING BOUTS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CID MAY ALSO GET
SOME OCCASIONAL IFR BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY MVFR TODAY. DBQ MAY
GET ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF RAIN AND VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BRISK EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS TODAY OF 12-20 KTS AS THE STORM APPROACHES AT
ALL TAF SITES...THEN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT FROM 5-15 KTS.
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BRL...BUT BRL
TO GO VFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 251155
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN WRAPPED UP CYCLONE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION...WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE ALOFT
STACKED ALMOST OVERHEAD IN THE SAME AREA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED A LARGE CYCLONICALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT
SECONDARY CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING-FUELED PRECIP SWATH
WAS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM ON NOSE OF IN-WRAPPING DRY
SLOT FROM THE SOUTH. BRISK EAST- NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW ADVECTING
COOL TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ARE STILL IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE SFC LOW PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS TO JOG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE STL AREA AND
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE CURRENT WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED WING OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SECONDARY WING NOW DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHERN
MO...WILL TAKE OVER AND PUSH ACRS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS BAND FORMING ON CONVERGENT H85 MB 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW THIS
MORNING...BEFORE OCCLUDED FLOW TAKES OVER AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE
ACTIVITY SWITCHES TO MORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEPENING
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.

BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LOOKING TO TAKE SHAPE
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...AND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FAIRFIELD...BRL...SOUTH GALESBURG AREAS. OTHER AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS SWATH TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AS LONG AS THE
DRY PUNCH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMP CONTRAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH MAY MAKE THE UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING/DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW ACCELERATES THE
CLEAR OUT FROM THAT DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT. COOL IN-FLUX MAY
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TO MIX AND PREVENT
MUCH FROST FORMATION. WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS
COOL/FROST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL E-NE WINDS WILL CHANNEL VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD BY TUE
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATING TO MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WILL THUS HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MONITOR IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR BOTH NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PHASING OF
WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY WED...WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST...WHICH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND SPREADS
WARMER AIR AT 850 MB INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND
LITTLE FORCING...DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR WED INTO THU. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN DEPICT GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR FORCING ALOFT TO
JUSTIFY OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACRS NORTHERN MO WILL WHIRL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT UNTIL THEN THE MLI AND BRL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING BOUTS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CID MAY ALSO GET
SOME OCCASIONAL IFR BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY MVFR TODAY. DBQ MAY
GET ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF RAIN AND VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BRISK EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS TODAY OF 12-20 KTS AS THE STORM APPROACHES AT
ALL TAF SITES...THEN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT FROM 5-15 KTS.
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BRL...BUT BRL
TO GO VFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 251155
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN WRAPPED UP CYCLONE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION...WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE ALOFT
STACKED ALMOST OVERHEAD IN THE SAME AREA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED A LARGE CYCLONICALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT
SECONDARY CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING-FUELED PRECIP SWATH
WAS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM ON NOSE OF IN-WRAPPING DRY
SLOT FROM THE SOUTH. BRISK EAST- NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW ADVECTING
COOL TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ARE STILL IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE SFC LOW PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS TO JOG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE STL AREA AND
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE CURRENT WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED WING OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SECONDARY WING NOW DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHERN
MO...WILL TAKE OVER AND PUSH ACRS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS BAND FORMING ON CONVERGENT H85 MB 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW THIS
MORNING...BEFORE OCCLUDED FLOW TAKES OVER AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE
ACTIVITY SWITCHES TO MORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEPENING
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.

BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LOOKING TO TAKE SHAPE
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...AND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FAIRFIELD...BRL...SOUTH GALESBURG AREAS. OTHER AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS SWATH TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AS LONG AS THE
DRY PUNCH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMP CONTRAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH MAY MAKE THE UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING/DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW ACCELERATES THE
CLEAR OUT FROM THAT DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT. COOL IN-FLUX MAY
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TO MIX AND PREVENT
MUCH FROST FORMATION. WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS
COOL/FROST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL E-NE WINDS WILL CHANNEL VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD BY TUE
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATING TO MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WILL THUS HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MONITOR IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR BOTH NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PHASING OF
WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY WED...WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST...WHICH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND SPREADS
WARMER AIR AT 850 MB INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND
LITTLE FORCING...DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR WED INTO THU. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN DEPICT GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR FORCING ALOFT TO
JUSTIFY OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACRS NORTHERN MO WILL WHIRL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT UNTIL THEN THE MLI AND BRL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING BOUTS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CID MAY ALSO GET
SOME OCCASIONAL IFR BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY MVFR TODAY. DBQ MAY
GET ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF RAIN AND VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BRISK EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS TODAY OF 12-20 KTS AS THE STORM APPROACHES AT
ALL TAF SITES...THEN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT FROM 5-15 KTS.
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BRL...BUT BRL
TO GO VFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 251155
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN WRAPPED UP CYCLONE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION...WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE ALOFT
STACKED ALMOST OVERHEAD IN THE SAME AREA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED A LARGE CYCLONICALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT
SECONDARY CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING-FUELED PRECIP SWATH
WAS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM ON NOSE OF IN-WRAPPING DRY
SLOT FROM THE SOUTH. BRISK EAST- NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW ADVECTING
COOL TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ARE STILL IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE SFC LOW PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS TO JOG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE STL AREA AND
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE CURRENT WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED WING OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SECONDARY WING NOW DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHERN
MO...WILL TAKE OVER AND PUSH ACRS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS BAND FORMING ON CONVERGENT H85 MB 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW THIS
MORNING...BEFORE OCCLUDED FLOW TAKES OVER AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE
ACTIVITY SWITCHES TO MORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEPENING
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.

BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LOOKING TO TAKE SHAPE
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...AND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FAIRFIELD...BRL...SOUTH GALESBURG AREAS. OTHER AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS SWATH TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AS LONG AS THE
DRY PUNCH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMP CONTRAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH MAY MAKE THE UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING/DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW ACCELERATES THE
CLEAR OUT FROM THAT DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT. COOL IN-FLUX MAY
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TO MIX AND PREVENT
MUCH FROST FORMATION. WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS
COOL/FROST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL E-NE WINDS WILL CHANNEL VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD BY TUE
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATING TO MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WILL THUS HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MONITOR IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR BOTH NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PHASING OF
WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY WED...WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST...WHICH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND SPREADS
WARMER AIR AT 850 MB INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND
LITTLE FORCING...DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR WED INTO THU. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN DEPICT GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR FORCING ALOFT TO
JUSTIFY OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACRS NORTHERN MO WILL WHIRL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT UNTIL THEN THE MLI AND BRL TAF SITES CAN EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING BOUTS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CID MAY ALSO GET
SOME OCCASIONAL IFR BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY MVFR TODAY. DBQ MAY
GET ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF RAIN AND VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BRISK EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS TODAY OF 12-20 KTS AS THE STORM APPROACHES AT
ALL TAF SITES...THEN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT FROM 5-15 KTS.
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BRL...BUT BRL
TO GO VFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 250858
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
358 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN WRAPPED UP CYCLONE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION...WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE ALOFT
STACKED ALMOST OVERHEAD IN THE SAME AREA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED A LARGE CYCLONICALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT
SECONDARY CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING-FUELED PRECIP SWATH
WAS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM ON NOSE OF IN-WRAPPING DRY
SLOT FROM THE SOUTH. BRISK EAST- NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW ADVECTING
COOL TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ARE STILL IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE SFC LOW PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS TO JOG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE STL AREA AND
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE CURRENT WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED WING OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SECONDARY WING NOW DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHERN
MO...WILL TAKE OVER AND PUSH ACRS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS BAND FORMING ON CONVERGENT H85 MB 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW THIS
MORNING...BEFORE OCCLUDED FLOW TAKES OVER AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE
ACTIVITY SWITCHES TO MORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEPENING
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.

BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LOOKING TO TAKE SHAPE
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...AND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FAIRFIELD...BRL...SOUTH GALESBURG AREAS. OTHER AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS SWATH TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AS LONG AS THE
DRY PUNCH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMP CONTRAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH MAY MAKE THE UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING/DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW ACCELERATES THE
CLEAR OUT FROM THAT DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT. COOL IN-FLUX MAY
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TO MIX AND PREVENT
MUCH FROST FORMATION. WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS
COOL/FROST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL E-NE WINDS WILL CHANNEL VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD BY TUE
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATING TO MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WILL THUS HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MONITOR IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR BOTH NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PHASING OF
WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY WED...WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST...WHICH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND SPREADS
WARMER AIR AT 850 MB INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND
LITTLE FORCING...DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR WED INTO THU. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN DEPICT GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR FORCING ALOFT TO
JUSTIFY OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWER VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 25/08Z WITH INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER 25/10Z AS AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY APPROACH THE BRL TERMINAL
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MLI TERMINAL TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS
HANDLED AS A VCTS AT THE BRL TERMINAL. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15+ KTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO
12 TO 20+ KTS AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH. THE RAINS WILL END
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL 26/00Z
AT LATEST WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 250858
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
358 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN WRAPPED UP CYCLONE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEB/NE KS BORDER REGION...WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WAVE ALOFT
STACKED ALMOST OVERHEAD IN THE SAME AREA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
INDICATED A LARGE CYCLONICALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT
SECONDARY CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING-FUELED PRECIP SWATH
WAS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL CWA ATTM ON NOSE OF IN-WRAPPING DRY
SLOT FROM THE SOUTH. BRISK EAST- NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW ADVECTING
COOL TEMPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE AREAS IN THE
FAR SOUTH WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ARE STILL IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOOK TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND OPEN UP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE SFC LOW PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS TO JOG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE STL AREA AND
INTO SOUTHERN IL. THE CURRENT WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED WING OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LOOK TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. SECONDARY WING NOW DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHERN
MO...WILL TAKE OVER AND PUSH ACRS THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS BAND FORMING ON CONVERGENT H85 MB 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW THIS
MORNING...BEFORE OCCLUDED FLOW TAKES OVER AND BETTER CONVERGENCE
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS MORE EMBEDDED THUNDER EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE
ACTIVITY SWITCHES TO MORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3S OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEPENING
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW.

BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS FOR A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE LOOKING TO TAKE SHAPE
ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR...AND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FAIRFIELD...BRL...SOUTH GALESBURG AREAS. OTHER AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THIS SWATH TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AS LONG AS THE
DRY PUNCH TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER STORM CELLS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I80. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMP CONTRAST
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE FAR SOUTH MAY MAKE THE UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING/DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW ACCELERATES THE
CLEAR OUT FROM THAT DIRECTION IN THE OVERNIGHT. COOL IN-FLUX MAY
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I80...BUT
EXPECT ENOUGH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH TO MIX AND PREVENT
MUCH FROST FORMATION. WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS
COOL/FROST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OVERVIEW...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT...WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER. LOW LEVEL E-NE WINDS WILL CHANNEL VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD BY TUE
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL FAVOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGER THAN
NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATING TO MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. WILL THUS HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MONITOR IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR BOTH NIGHTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PHASING OF
WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY WED...WITH ONLY A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST...WHICH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND SPREADS
WARMER AIR AT 850 MB INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY. WITH GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF AND
LITTLE FORCING...DRY IS THE WAY TO GO FOR WED INTO THU. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN DEPICT GULF MOISTURE RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES OR FORCING ALOFT TO
JUSTIFY OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWER VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 25/08Z WITH INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER 25/10Z AS AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY APPROACH THE BRL TERMINAL
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MLI TERMINAL TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS
HANDLED AS A VCTS AT THE BRL TERMINAL. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15+ KTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO
12 TO 20+ KTS AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH. THE RAINS WILL END
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL 26/00Z
AT LATEST WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 250445
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 245 PM...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A MEAGER AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED CAPE WAS SUPPORTING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT OTHER
THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STORMS WILL NOT BE
A THREAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS INCREASING IN THE FAR
WEST...WHILE THE FAR EAST REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVIER RAIN HAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...WHILE READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREPT INTO THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. EXPECTING
THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. THE
EASTERN FRINGE IS TAKING LONGER TO SATURATE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE 20S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING VARYING LEVELS OF
SUCCESS IN CAPTURING THE CURRENT RAIN COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...THE
BULK OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

LATER THIS EVENING...AM EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THEN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE POINTS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
LIKELY BECOME A MORE OPEN WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN WANES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE PERIOD...AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH STILL LOOK DECENT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE DIURNAL RANGES A BIT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE 40S NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

OVERVIEW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET FOCUSES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...500MB VORTICITY MAX OVER NE MISSOURI AND WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ENTERS INTO A
CONFLUENCE ZONE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY...NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 F
AND STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST FROM THE
SFC UP TO 300MB AND RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT WARM AVERAGING NEAR
4C...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE 60S.
SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS AND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THE GFS KEEPS THE 300MB JET MOSTLY TO THE NE/E OF IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF HAS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED JET STREAK DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN
IOWA...DIGGING A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT SFC TEMP
PROJECTIONS ARE SIMILAR FROM BOTH MODELS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE LOW...AROUND 546 DAM...SO TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN IF
CLOUDS OR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT.

THURSDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS AND
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A MUCH MORE
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH STRONG TROUGHING APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. 1000-
500MB THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING ON THU
BUT MAY NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWER VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 25/08Z WITH INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER 25/10Z AS AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY APPROACH THE BRL TERMINAL
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MLI TERMINAL TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS
HANDLED AS A VCTS AT THE BRL TERMINAL. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15+ KTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO
12 TO 20+ KTS AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH. THE RAINS WILL END
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL 26/00Z
AT LATEST WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 250445
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 245 PM...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A MEAGER AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED CAPE WAS SUPPORTING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT OTHER
THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STORMS WILL NOT BE
A THREAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS INCREASING IN THE FAR
WEST...WHILE THE FAR EAST REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVIER RAIN HAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...WHILE READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREPT INTO THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. EXPECTING
THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. THE
EASTERN FRINGE IS TAKING LONGER TO SATURATE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE 20S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING VARYING LEVELS OF
SUCCESS IN CAPTURING THE CURRENT RAIN COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...THE
BULK OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

LATER THIS EVENING...AM EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THEN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE POINTS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
LIKELY BECOME A MORE OPEN WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN WANES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE PERIOD...AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH STILL LOOK DECENT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE DIURNAL RANGES A BIT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE 40S NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

OVERVIEW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET FOCUSES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...500MB VORTICITY MAX OVER NE MISSOURI AND WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ENTERS INTO A
CONFLUENCE ZONE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY...NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 F
AND STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST FROM THE
SFC UP TO 300MB AND RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT WARM AVERAGING NEAR
4C...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE 60S.
SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS AND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THE GFS KEEPS THE 300MB JET MOSTLY TO THE NE/E OF IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF HAS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED JET STREAK DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN
IOWA...DIGGING A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT SFC TEMP
PROJECTIONS ARE SIMILAR FROM BOTH MODELS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE LOW...AROUND 546 DAM...SO TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN IF
CLOUDS OR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT.

THURSDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS AND
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A MUCH MORE
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH STRONG TROUGHING APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. 1000-
500MB THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING ON THU
BUT MAY NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWER VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 25/08Z WITH INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER 25/10Z AS AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY APPROACH THE BRL TERMINAL
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MLI TERMINAL TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS
HANDLED AS A VCTS AT THE BRL TERMINAL. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15+ KTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY MID DAY AND INCREASE TO
12 TO 20+ KTS AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH. THE RAINS WILL END
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL 26/00Z
AT LATEST WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 242350
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 245 PM...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A MEAGER AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED CAPE WAS SUPPORTING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT OTHER
THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STORMS WILL NOT BE
A THREAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS INCREASING IN THE FAR
WEST...WHILE THE FAR EAST REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVIER RAIN HAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...WHILE READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREPT INTO THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. EXPECTING
THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. THE
EASTERN FRINGE IS TAKING LONGER TO SATURATE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE 20S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING VARYING LEVELS OF
SUCCESS IN CAPTURING THE CURRENT RAIN COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...THE
BULK OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

LATER THIS EVENING...AM EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THEN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE POINTS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
LIKELY BECOME A MORE OPEN WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN WANES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE PERIOD...AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH STILL LOOK DECENT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE DIURNAL RANGES A BIT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE 40S NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

OVERVIEW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET FOCUSES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...500MB VORTICITY MAX OVER NE MISSOURI AND WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ENTERS INTO A
CONFLUENCE ZONE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY...NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 F
AND STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST FROM THE
SFC UP TO 300MB AND RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT WARM AVERAGING NEAR
4C...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE 60S.
SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS AND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THE GFS KEEPS THE 300MB JET MOSTLY TO THE NE/E OF IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF HAS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED JET STREAK DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN
IOWA...DIGGING A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT SFC TEMP
PROJECTIONS ARE SIMILAR FROM BOTH MODELS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE LOW...AROUND 546 DAM...SO TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN IF
CLOUDS OR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT.

THURSDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS AND
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A MUCH MORE
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH STRONG TROUGHING APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. 1000-
500MB THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING ON THU
BUT MAY NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 25/05Z WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 25/08Z AS AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY APPROACH THE BRL TERMINAL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MLI TERMINAL
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS HANDLED AS A VCTS AT THE BRL TERMINAL. EAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY MID
DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20+ KTS AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH.
THE RAINS WILL END IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL
26/00Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTERWARD FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 242350
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 245 PM...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A MEAGER AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED CAPE WAS SUPPORTING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT OTHER
THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STORMS WILL NOT BE
A THREAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS INCREASING IN THE FAR
WEST...WHILE THE FAR EAST REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVIER RAIN HAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...WHILE READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREPT INTO THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. EXPECTING
THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. THE
EASTERN FRINGE IS TAKING LONGER TO SATURATE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE 20S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING VARYING LEVELS OF
SUCCESS IN CAPTURING THE CURRENT RAIN COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...THE
BULK OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

LATER THIS EVENING...AM EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THEN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE POINTS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
LIKELY BECOME A MORE OPEN WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN WANES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE PERIOD...AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH STILL LOOK DECENT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE DIURNAL RANGES A BIT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE 40S NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

OVERVIEW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET FOCUSES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...500MB VORTICITY MAX OVER NE MISSOURI AND WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ENTERS INTO A
CONFLUENCE ZONE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY...NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 F
AND STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST FROM THE
SFC UP TO 300MB AND RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT WARM AVERAGING NEAR
4C...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE 60S.
SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS AND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THE GFS KEEPS THE 300MB JET MOSTLY TO THE NE/E OF IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF HAS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED JET STREAK DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN
IOWA...DIGGING A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT SFC TEMP
PROJECTIONS ARE SIMILAR FROM BOTH MODELS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE LOW...AROUND 546 DAM...SO TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN IF
CLOUDS OR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT.

THURSDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS AND
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A MUCH MORE
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH STRONG TROUGHING APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. 1000-
500MB THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING ON THU
BUT MAY NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 25/05Z WITH
INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 25/08Z AS AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOP THAT WILL LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY APPROACH THE BRL TERMINAL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE MLI TERMINAL
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS IS HANDLED AS A VCTS AT THE BRL TERMINAL. EAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BY MID
DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20+ KTS AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH.
THE RAINS WILL END IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL
26/00Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTERWARD FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 242016
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 245 PM...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A MEAGER AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED CAPE WAS SUPPORTING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT OTHER
THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STORMS WILL NOT BE
A THREAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS INCREASING IN THE FAR
WEST...WHILE THE FAR EAST REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVIER RAIN HAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...WHILE READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREPT INTO THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. EXPECTING
THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. THE
EASTERN FRINGE IS TAKING LONGER TO SATURATE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE 20S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING VARYING LEVELS OF
SUCCESS IN CAPTURING THE CURRENT RAIN COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...THE
BULK OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

LATER THIS EVENING...AM EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THEN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE POINTS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
LIKELY BECOME A MORE OPEN WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN WANES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE PERIOD...AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH STILL LOOK DECENT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE DIURNAL RANGES A BIT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE 40S NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

OVERVIEW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET FOCUSES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...500MB VORTICITY MAX OVER NE MISSOURI AND WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ENTERS INTO A
CONFLUENCE ZONE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY...NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 F
AND STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST FROM THE
SFC UP TO 300MB AND RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT WARM AVERAGING NEAR
4C...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE 60S.
SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS AND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THE GFS KEEPS THE 300MB JET MOSTLY TO THE NE/E OF IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF HAS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED JET STREAK DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN
IOWA...DIGGING A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT SFC TEMP
PROJECTIONS ARE SIMILAR FROM BOTH MODELS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE LOW...AROUND 546 DAM...SO TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN IF
CLOUDS OR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT.

THURSDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS AND
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A MUCH MORE
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH STRONG TROUGHING APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. 1000-
500MB THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING ON THU
BUT MAY NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS...WITH SOME SHOWERS AT
KDBQ AND ISOLD TSRA AT KCID...AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT KMLI/KBRL. AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. EXPECT CIGS TO PROGRESS FROM
VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR MOST FAVORED AT KBRL. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND BR WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITH PRECIPITATION
PERSISTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST FAVORED AT KBRL OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LOW PROBABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 242016
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 245 PM...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A MEAGER AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED CAPE WAS SUPPORTING THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT OTHER
THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STORMS WILL NOT BE
A THREAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS INCREASING IN THE FAR
WEST...WHILE THE FAR EAST REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVIER RAIN HAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...WHILE READINGS WERE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREPT INTO THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY
FROM THE LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. EXPECTING
THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. THE
EASTERN FRINGE IS TAKING LONGER TO SATURATE WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE 20S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING VARYING LEVELS OF
SUCCESS IN CAPTURING THE CURRENT RAIN COVERAGE. IN GENERAL...THE
BULK OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

LATER THIS EVENING...AM EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THEN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE POINTS TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
LIKELY BECOME A MORE OPEN WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN WANES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THROUGH THE PERIOD...AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH STILL LOOK DECENT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE DIURNAL RANGES A BIT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STUCK IN THE 40S NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

OVERVIEW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET FOCUSES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...500MB VORTICITY MAX OVER NE MISSOURI AND WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ENTERS INTO A
CONFLUENCE ZONE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING OR EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

SUNDAY...NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 F
AND STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST FROM THE
SFC UP TO 300MB AND RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT ALL THAT WARM AVERAGING NEAR
4C...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE 60S.
SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON MID/UPPER LEVEL KINEMATICS AND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN. THE GFS KEEPS THE 300MB JET MOSTLY TO THE NE/E OF IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE ECMWF HAS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED JET STREAK DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND WESTERN
IOWA...DIGGING A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT SFC TEMP
PROJECTIONS ARE SIMILAR FROM BOTH MODELS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE
QUITE LOW...AROUND 546 DAM...SO TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN IF
CLOUDS OR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT.

THURSDAY...COULD BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS AND
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A MUCH MORE
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH STRONG TROUGHING APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. 1000-
500MB THICKNESS ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MORNING ON THU
BUT MAY NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS...WITH SOME SHOWERS AT
KDBQ AND ISOLD TSRA AT KCID...AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT KMLI/KBRL. AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. EXPECT CIGS TO PROGRESS FROM
VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR MOST FAVORED AT KBRL. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND BR WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITH PRECIPITATION
PERSISTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST FAVORED AT KBRL OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LOW PROBABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 241740
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL...SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WEST OF
THE MS RVR AS WELL AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS ACRS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF IT CAN MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...MOST HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
HANDLING IT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD
VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE
ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TODAY...WILL LET FROST ADVISORY RIDE ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF IT THE
COLDEST TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST IS HALTING THE COLD DIP. A COUPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
LIFT AND CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WINGS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TODAY...THE MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AS
IT TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN...ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PRECIP ACTIVITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LAYER
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
ONGOING PACKAGE...BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING
PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY
12Z SAT. LEAD PORTION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZONE OF RAIN OFF THIS
SYSTEM TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN
INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40+ KT H85
MB JET BECOMING RICHER WITH THTA-E...THIS LLJ JET AXIS WILL LOOK
TO CONVERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MAKING FOR HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT RIBBON INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY GET AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAWN SAT MORNING. WITH INCREASING SATURATION
AND RISING SFC DPTS...LOWS TO BE HELD UP IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON-GOING SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND FILLING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL
APPROPRIATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO NEAR .75 LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BRISK WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS...RAIN AND BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SOUTH WILL TAP
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADVECTION OF COOL...AND DRIER AIR ON NE WINDS THAT
FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

SUNDAY...INCOMING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REASONABLE AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AT THIS TIME KEEP E-NE SURFACE WINDS IN
A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF POSSIBLE
WEAK SYSTEMS AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SETUP WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL...MAINLY NW...FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

18Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS...WITH SOME SHOWERS AT
KDBQ/KCID AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT KMLI/KBRL.
AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 05Z AND
09Z. EXPECT CIGS TO PROGRESS FROM VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR
MOST FAVORED AT KBRL. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND BR WILL ALSO
BE COMMON WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST FAVORED
AT KBRL...BUT LOW PROBABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAF AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 241740
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL...SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WEST OF
THE MS RVR AS WELL AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS ACRS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF IT CAN MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...MOST HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
HANDLING IT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD
VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE
ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TODAY...WILL LET FROST ADVISORY RIDE ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF IT THE
COLDEST TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST IS HALTING THE COLD DIP. A COUPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
LIFT AND CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WINGS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TODAY...THE MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AS
IT TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN...ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PRECIP ACTIVITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LAYER
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
ONGOING PACKAGE...BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING
PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY
12Z SAT. LEAD PORTION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZONE OF RAIN OFF THIS
SYSTEM TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN
INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40+ KT H85
MB JET BECOMING RICHER WITH THTA-E...THIS LLJ JET AXIS WILL LOOK
TO CONVERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MAKING FOR HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT RIBBON INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY GET AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAWN SAT MORNING. WITH INCREASING SATURATION
AND RISING SFC DPTS...LOWS TO BE HELD UP IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON-GOING SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND FILLING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL
APPROPRIATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO NEAR .75 LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BRISK WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS...RAIN AND BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SOUTH WILL TAP
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADVECTION OF COOL...AND DRIER AIR ON NE WINDS THAT
FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

SUNDAY...INCOMING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REASONABLE AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AT THIS TIME KEEP E-NE SURFACE WINDS IN
A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF POSSIBLE
WEAK SYSTEMS AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SETUP WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL...MAINLY NW...FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

18Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS...WITH SOME SHOWERS AT
KDBQ/KCID AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT KMLI/KBRL.
AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 05Z AND
09Z. EXPECT CIGS TO PROGRESS FROM VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR
MOST FAVORED AT KBRL. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND BR WILL ALSO
BE COMMON WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST FAVORED
AT KBRL...BUT LOW PROBABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAF AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 241204
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL...SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WEST OF
THE MS RVR AS WELL AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS ACRS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF IT CAN MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...MOST HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
HANDLING IT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD
VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE
ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TODAY...WILL LET FROST ADVISORY RIDE ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF IT THE
COLDEST TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST IS HALTING THE COLD DIP. A COUPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
LIFT AND CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WINGS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TODAY...THE MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AS
IT TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN...ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PRECIP ACTIVITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LAYER
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
ONGOING PACKAGE...BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING
PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY
12Z SAT. LEAD PORTION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZONE OF RAIN OFF THIS
SYSTEM TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN
INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40+ KT H85
MB JET BECOMING RICHER WITH THTA-E...THIS LLJ JET AXIS WILL LOOK
TO CONVERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MAKING FOR HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT RIBBON INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY GET AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAWN SAT MORNING. WITH INCREASING SATURATION
AND RISING SFC DPTS...LOWS TO BE HELD UP IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON-GOING SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND FILLING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL
APPROPRIATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO NEAR .75 LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BRISK WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS...RAIN AND BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SOUTH WILL TAP
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADVECTION OF COOL...AND DRIER AIR ON NE WINDS THAT
FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

SUNDAY...INCOMING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REASONABLE AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AT THIS TIME KEEP E-NE SURFACE WINDS IN
A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF POSSIBLE
WEAK SYSTEMS AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SETUP WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL...MAINLY NW...FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ELEVATED SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF CID AND THEN DBQ THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CLOUD DECKS...THEN A POSSIBLE MIDDAY
PRECIP LULL BEFORE SCTRD SHOWERS PERCOLATE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT AGAIN DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS
MAY KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. RAIN
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BOTH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS MORE LIKELY BY MID EVENING...AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
PERIOD. MAINLY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...OCCASIONALLY BECOMING HEAVY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 AT MLI AND BRL WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
BOUTS OF IFR VSBYS TOO IN HEAVIER RAIN BURSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO ROLL EAST
ACRS NORTHERN MO. EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10-20 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 241204
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL...SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WEST OF
THE MS RVR AS WELL AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS ACRS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF IT CAN MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...MOST HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
HANDLING IT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD
VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE
ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TODAY...WILL LET FROST ADVISORY RIDE ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF IT THE
COLDEST TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST IS HALTING THE COLD DIP. A COUPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
LIFT AND CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WINGS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TODAY...THE MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AS
IT TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN...ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PRECIP ACTIVITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LAYER
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
ONGOING PACKAGE...BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING
PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY
12Z SAT. LEAD PORTION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZONE OF RAIN OFF THIS
SYSTEM TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN
INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40+ KT H85
MB JET BECOMING RICHER WITH THTA-E...THIS LLJ JET AXIS WILL LOOK
TO CONVERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MAKING FOR HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT RIBBON INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY GET AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAWN SAT MORNING. WITH INCREASING SATURATION
AND RISING SFC DPTS...LOWS TO BE HELD UP IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON-GOING SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND FILLING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL
APPROPRIATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO NEAR .75 LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BRISK WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS...RAIN AND BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SOUTH WILL TAP
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADVECTION OF COOL...AND DRIER AIR ON NE WINDS THAT
FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

SUNDAY...INCOMING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REASONABLE AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AT THIS TIME KEEP E-NE SURFACE WINDS IN
A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF POSSIBLE
WEAK SYSTEMS AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SETUP WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL...MAINLY NW...FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ELEVATED SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF CID AND THEN DBQ THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CLOUD DECKS...THEN A POSSIBLE MIDDAY
PRECIP LULL BEFORE SCTRD SHOWERS PERCOLATE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT AGAIN DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS
MAY KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. RAIN
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BOTH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS MORE LIKELY BY MID EVENING...AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
PERIOD. MAINLY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...OCCASIONALLY BECOMING HEAVY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 AT MLI AND BRL WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
BOUTS OF IFR VSBYS TOO IN HEAVIER RAIN BURSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO ROLL EAST
ACRS NORTHERN MO. EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10-20 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 241204
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL...SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WEST OF
THE MS RVR AS WELL AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS ACRS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF IT CAN MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...MOST HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
HANDLING IT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD
VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE
ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TODAY...WILL LET FROST ADVISORY RIDE ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF IT THE
COLDEST TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST IS HALTING THE COLD DIP. A COUPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
LIFT AND CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WINGS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TODAY...THE MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AS
IT TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN...ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PRECIP ACTIVITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LAYER
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
ONGOING PACKAGE...BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING
PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY
12Z SAT. LEAD PORTION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZONE OF RAIN OFF THIS
SYSTEM TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN
INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40+ KT H85
MB JET BECOMING RICHER WITH THTA-E...THIS LLJ JET AXIS WILL LOOK
TO CONVERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MAKING FOR HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT RIBBON INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY GET AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAWN SAT MORNING. WITH INCREASING SATURATION
AND RISING SFC DPTS...LOWS TO BE HELD UP IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON-GOING SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND FILLING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL
APPROPRIATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO NEAR .75 LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BRISK WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS...RAIN AND BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SOUTH WILL TAP
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADVECTION OF COOL...AND DRIER AIR ON NE WINDS THAT
FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

SUNDAY...INCOMING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REASONABLE AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AT THIS TIME KEEP E-NE SURFACE WINDS IN
A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF POSSIBLE
WEAK SYSTEMS AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SETUP WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL...MAINLY NW...FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ELEVATED SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF CID AND THEN DBQ THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CLOUD DECKS...THEN A POSSIBLE MIDDAY
PRECIP LULL BEFORE SCTRD SHOWERS PERCOLATE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT AGAIN DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS
MAY KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. RAIN
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BOTH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS MORE LIKELY BY MID EVENING...AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
PERIOD. MAINLY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...OCCASIONALLY BECOMING HEAVY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 AT MLI AND BRL WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
BOUTS OF IFR VSBYS TOO IN HEAVIER RAIN BURSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO ROLL EAST
ACRS NORTHERN MO. EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10-20 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 241204
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL...SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WEST OF
THE MS RVR AS WELL AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS ACRS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF IT CAN MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...MOST HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
HANDLING IT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD
VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE
ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TODAY...WILL LET FROST ADVISORY RIDE ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF IT THE
COLDEST TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST IS HALTING THE COLD DIP. A COUPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
LIFT AND CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WINGS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TODAY...THE MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AS
IT TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN...ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PRECIP ACTIVITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LAYER
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
ONGOING PACKAGE...BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING
PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY
12Z SAT. LEAD PORTION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZONE OF RAIN OFF THIS
SYSTEM TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN
INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40+ KT H85
MB JET BECOMING RICHER WITH THTA-E...THIS LLJ JET AXIS WILL LOOK
TO CONVERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MAKING FOR HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT RIBBON INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY GET AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAWN SAT MORNING. WITH INCREASING SATURATION
AND RISING SFC DPTS...LOWS TO BE HELD UP IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON-GOING SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND FILLING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL
APPROPRIATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO NEAR .75 LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BRISK WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS...RAIN AND BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SOUTH WILL TAP
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADVECTION OF COOL...AND DRIER AIR ON NE WINDS THAT
FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

SUNDAY...INCOMING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REASONABLE AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AT THIS TIME KEEP E-NE SURFACE WINDS IN
A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF POSSIBLE
WEAK SYSTEMS AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SETUP WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL...MAINLY NW...FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ELEVATED SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF CID AND THEN DBQ THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CLOUD DECKS...THEN A POSSIBLE MIDDAY
PRECIP LULL BEFORE SCTRD SHOWERS PERCOLATE AGAIN FROM THE WEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-20 KTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT AGAIN DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS
MAY KEEP CIGS AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. RAIN
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BOTH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS MORE LIKELY BY MID EVENING...AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
PERIOD. MAINLY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...OCCASIONALLY BECOMING HEAVY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 AT MLI AND BRL WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
BOUTS OF IFR VSBYS TOO IN HEAVIER RAIN BURSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO ROLL EAST
ACRS NORTHERN MO. EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10-20 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 240912
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
412 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL...SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WEST OF
THE MS RVR AS WELL AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS ACRS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF IT CAN MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...MOST HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
HANDLING IT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD
VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE
ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TODAY...WILL LET FROST ADVISORY RIDE ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF IT THE
COLDEST TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST IS HALTING THE COLD DIP. A COUPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
LIFT AND CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WINGS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TODAY...THE MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AS
IT TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN...ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PRECIP ACTIVITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LAYER
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
ONGOING PACKAGE...BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING
PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY
12Z SAT. LEAD PORTION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZONE OF RAIN OFF THIS
SYSTEM TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN
INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40+ KT H85
MB JET BECOMING RICHER WITH THTA-E...THIS LLJ JET AXIS WILL LOOK
TO CONVERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MAKING FOR HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT RIBBON INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY GET AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAWN SAT MORNING. WITH INCREASING SATURATION
AND RISING SFC DPTS...LOWS TO BE HELD UP IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON-GOING SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND FILLING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL
APPROPRIATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO NEAR .75 LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BRISK WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS...RAIN AND BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SOUTH WILL TAP
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADVECTION OF COOL...AND DRIER AIR ON NE WINDS THAT
FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

SUNDAY...INCOMING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REASONABLE AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AT THIS TIME KEEP E-NE SURFACE WINDS IN
A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF POSSIBLE
WEAK SYSTEMS AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SETUP WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL...MAINLY NW...FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY 24/14Z ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING FROM AOA 10K AGL TO AOB 6K AGL BY 24/22Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 24/19Z ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 WORDING. CONTINUED
RISKS OF PRECIPITATION AOA 25/02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 240912
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
412 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
AXIS STARTING TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BUT STILL PRODUCING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS ACRS IL...SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASING WEST OF
THE MS RVR AS WELL AS THICKENING CLOUD COVER. ELEVATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS ACRS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IA WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED IF IT CAN MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...MOST HIRES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT
HANDLING IT. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RIDGE-RIDING LEAD
VORT LOBE ACRS NORTHEASTERN NEB INTO NW IA WITH SIGNS IT WILL MOVE
ACRS IA THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

TODAY...WILL LET FROST ADVISORY RIDE ALTHOUGH FOR MUCH OF IT THE
COLDEST TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST IS HALTING THE COLD DIP. A COUPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
LIFT AND CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WINGS TO TRY AND DEVELOP
SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST TODAY...THE MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR AS
IT TRIES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN...ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MORE PRECIP ACTIVITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LAYER
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO
ONGOING PACKAGE...BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EVAPO-COOLING
PROCESSES MAY MAKE FOR COOLER HIGHS THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF ROLLING CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW SYSTEM ACRS NORTHWESTERN MO BY
12Z SAT. LEAD PORTION OF DEVELOPING DEF ZONE OF RAIN OFF THIS
SYSTEM TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN
INCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-40+ KT H85
MB JET BECOMING RICHER WITH THTA-E...THIS LLJ JET AXIS WILL LOOK
TO CONVERGE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MAKING FOR HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT RIBBON INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY GET AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY DAWN SAT MORNING. WITH INCREASING SATURATION
AND RISING SFC DPTS...LOWS TO BE HELD UP IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ON-GOING SATURDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
AND FILLING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL
APPROPRIATE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO NEAR .75 LIKELY
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WHEN THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH. BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DRIVEN BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BRISK WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS...RAIN AND BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RISE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. THE SOUTH WILL TAP
INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 60. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PROXIMITY TO THE 850 MB WARM FRONT MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
HAVE CONFINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADVECTION OF COOL...AND DRIER AIR ON NE WINDS THAT
FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

SUNDAY...INCOMING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
REASONABLE AND LIGHT E-NE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AT THIS TIME KEEP E-NE SURFACE WINDS IN
A 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF POSSIBLE
WEAK SYSTEMS AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL SETUP WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL...MAINLY NW...FLOW SUPPORTS
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY 24/14Z ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING FROM AOA 10K AGL TO AOB 6K AGL BY 24/22Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 24/19Z ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 WORDING. CONTINUED
RISKS OF PRECIPITATION AOA 25/02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 240453
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION/MIDWEST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AS OF 3 PM...THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 16 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.

HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT...FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA.

FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE OMEGA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA VIA WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE TEENS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 10 F BY 00Z/SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND NOT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE 30-50 POPS
IN THE GRIDS FRI AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WESTERN CWA. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT ON DRAWING A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OVER
THE CWA...WITH DYNAMICS VERY TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH
WINTER CYCLONE. OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MAIN PATH OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...THUS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS A CERTAINTY.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO THE 75 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN 1/2. THE STABLE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVER MISSOURI CLOSE AT HAND...SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES APPEAR LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNT
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER 1 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS...AND SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
UNDER 1/2 INCH.

WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING OVER 30 AT TIMES. THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WET PERIOD. ASSUMING THE RAIN ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOUTH MAY CREEP BACK TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A WEEKEND TO SPEND
INDOORS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
BELOW NORMAL...BUT DEEP DAILY MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY 24/14Z ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING FROM AOA 10K AGL TO AOB 6K AGL BY 24/22Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 24/19Z ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 WORDING. CONTINUED
RISKS OF PRECIPITATION AOA 25/02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-
     JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 240453
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION/MIDWEST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AS OF 3 PM...THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 16 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.

HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT...FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA.

FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE OMEGA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA VIA WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE TEENS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 10 F BY 00Z/SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND NOT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE 30-50 POPS
IN THE GRIDS FRI AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WESTERN CWA. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT ON DRAWING A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OVER
THE CWA...WITH DYNAMICS VERY TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH
WINTER CYCLONE. OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MAIN PATH OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...THUS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS A CERTAINTY.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO THE 75 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN 1/2. THE STABLE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVER MISSOURI CLOSE AT HAND...SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES APPEAR LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNT
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER 1 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS...AND SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
UNDER 1/2 INCH.

WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING OVER 30 AT TIMES. THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WET PERIOD. ASSUMING THE RAIN ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOUTH MAY CREEP BACK TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A WEEKEND TO SPEND
INDOORS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
BELOW NORMAL...BUT DEEP DAILY MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY 24/14Z ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING FROM AOA 10K AGL TO AOB 6K AGL BY 24/22Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 24/19Z ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 WORDING. CONTINUED
RISKS OF PRECIPITATION AOA 25/02Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE
EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-
     JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 232334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION/MIDWEST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AS OF 3 PM...THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 16 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.

HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT...FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA.

FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE OMEGA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA VIA WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE TEENS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 10 F BY 00Z/SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND NOT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE 30-50 POPS
IN THE GRIDS FRI AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WESTERN CWA. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT ON DRAWING A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OVER
THE CWA...WITH DYNAMICS VERY TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH
WINTER CYCLONE. OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MAIN PATH OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...THUS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS A CERTAINTY.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO THE 75 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN 1/2. THE STABLE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVER MISSOURI CLOSE AT HAND...SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES APPEAR LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNT
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER 1 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS...AND SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
UNDER 1/2 INCH.

WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING OVER 30 AT TIMES. THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WET PERIOD. ASSUMING THE RAIN ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOUTH MAY CREEP BACK TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A WEEKEND TO SPEND
INDOORS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
BELOW NORMAL...BUT DEEP DAILY MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY 24/14Z ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING FROM AOA 10K AGL TO 6K AGL BY 24/22Z. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 24/19Z ARE HANDLED AS A VCSH WORDING WITH GREATEST
RISKS OF PRECIPITATION AOA 25/00Z ATTM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 232334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION/MIDWEST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AS OF 3 PM...THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 16 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.

HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT...FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA.

FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE OMEGA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA VIA WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE TEENS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 10 F BY 00Z/SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND NOT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE 30-50 POPS
IN THE GRIDS FRI AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WESTERN CWA. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT ON DRAWING A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OVER
THE CWA...WITH DYNAMICS VERY TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH
WINTER CYCLONE. OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MAIN PATH OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...THUS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS A CERTAINTY.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO THE 75 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN 1/2. THE STABLE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVER MISSOURI CLOSE AT HAND...SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES APPEAR LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNT
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER 1 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS...AND SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
UNDER 1/2 INCH.

WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING OVER 30 AT TIMES. THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WET PERIOD. ASSUMING THE RAIN ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOUTH MAY CREEP BACK TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A WEEKEND TO SPEND
INDOORS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
BELOW NORMAL...BUT DEEP DAILY MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY 24/14Z ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING FROM AOA 10K AGL TO 6K AGL BY 24/22Z. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 24/19Z ARE HANDLED AS A VCSH WORDING WITH GREATEST
RISKS OF PRECIPITATION AOA 25/00Z ATTM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 232334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION/MIDWEST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AS OF 3 PM...THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 16 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.

HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT...FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA.

FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE OMEGA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA VIA WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE TEENS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 10 F BY 00Z/SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND NOT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE 30-50 POPS
IN THE GRIDS FRI AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WESTERN CWA. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT ON DRAWING A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OVER
THE CWA...WITH DYNAMICS VERY TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH
WINTER CYCLONE. OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MAIN PATH OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...THUS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS A CERTAINTY.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO THE 75 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN 1/2. THE STABLE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVER MISSOURI CLOSE AT HAND...SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES APPEAR LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNT
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER 1 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS...AND SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
UNDER 1/2 INCH.

WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING OVER 30 AT TIMES. THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WET PERIOD. ASSUMING THE RAIN ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOUTH MAY CREEP BACK TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A WEEKEND TO SPEND
INDOORS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
BELOW NORMAL...BUT DEEP DAILY MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY 24/14Z ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING FROM AOA 10K AGL TO 6K AGL BY 24/22Z. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 24/19Z ARE HANDLED AS A VCSH WORDING WITH GREATEST
RISKS OF PRECIPITATION AOA 25/00Z ATTM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 232334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION/MIDWEST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AS OF 3 PM...THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 16 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.

HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT...FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA.

FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE OMEGA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA VIA WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE TEENS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 10 F BY 00Z/SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND NOT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE 30-50 POPS
IN THE GRIDS FRI AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WESTERN CWA. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT ON DRAWING A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OVER
THE CWA...WITH DYNAMICS VERY TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH
WINTER CYCLONE. OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MAIN PATH OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...THUS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS A CERTAINTY.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO THE 75 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN 1/2. THE STABLE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVER MISSOURI CLOSE AT HAND...SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES APPEAR LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNT
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER 1 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS...AND SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
UNDER 1/2 INCH.

WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING OVER 30 AT TIMES. THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WET PERIOD. ASSUMING THE RAIN ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOUTH MAY CREEP BACK TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A WEEKEND TO SPEND
INDOORS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
BELOW NORMAL...BUT DEEP DAILY MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL BECOME BKN-OVC BY 24/14Z ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING FROM AOA 10K AGL TO 6K AGL BY 24/22Z. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 24/19Z ARE HANDLED AS A VCSH WORDING WITH GREATEST
RISKS OF PRECIPITATION AOA 25/00Z ATTM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 232010
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION/MIDWEST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AS OF 3 PM...THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 16 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.

HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT...FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA.

FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE OMEGA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA VIA WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE TEENS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 10 F BY 00Z/SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND NOT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE 30-50 POPS
IN THE GRIDS FRI AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WESTERN CWA. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT ON DRAWING A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OVER
THE CWA...WITH DYNAMICS VERY TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH
WINTER CYCLONE. OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MAIN PATH OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...THUS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS A CERTAINTY.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO THE 75 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN 1/2. THE STABLE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVER MISSOURI CLOSE AT HAND...SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES APPEAR LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNT
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER 1 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS...AND SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
UNDER 1/2 INCH.

WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING OVER 30 AT TIMES. THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WET PERIOD. ASSUMING THE RAIN ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOUTH MAY CREEP BACK TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A WEEKEND TO SPEND
INDOORS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
BELOW NORMAL...BUT DEEP DAILY MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRI MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 6 KFT AGL BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRI.
ALSO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AFTER 12Z/FRI
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AFTER 16Z/FRI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 232010
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION/MIDWEST
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AS OF 3 PM...THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT IS EVEN LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AT 16 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BUT LIGHT SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE.

HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OR SO OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CDT...FOR
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA.

FRIDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
OVER THE MIDWEST. SE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30
MPH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE OMEGA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA VIA WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. LOW-LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AS DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
IN THE TEENS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 10 F BY 00Z/SATURDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND NOT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE 30-50 POPS
IN THE GRIDS FRI AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WESTERN CWA. MANY AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT ON DRAWING A MOIST AIRMASS NORTH OVER
THE CWA...WITH DYNAMICS VERY TYPICAL FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH
WINTER CYCLONE. OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MAIN PATH OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING...THUS A WIDESPREAD RAIN IS A CERTAINTY.
I HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO THE 75 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN 1/2. THE STABLE SATURATED AIRMASS SHOULD BE DOMINATED
BY A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...BUT WITH THE WARM SECTOR
OVER MISSOURI CLOSE AT HAND...SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES APPEAR LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AMOUNT
SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING OVER 1 INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS...AND SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING
UNDER 1/2 INCH.

WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE STRONG FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH...GUSTING OVER 30 AT TIMES. THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WET PERIOD. ASSUMING THE RAIN ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOUTH MAY CREEP BACK TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE A WEEKEND TO SPEND
INDOORS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION
BELOW NORMAL...BUT DEEP DAILY MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRI MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 6 KFT AGL BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRI.
ALSO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AFTER 12Z/FRI
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AFTER 16Z/FRI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 231805
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH WESTERN IA AND
MO. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION WITH LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA INDUCING WINDS
4-10 KTS TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO SHELTERED AREAS OR VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WX AND CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME THINNING MID CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM WESTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LESS
WIND (10-15 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EAST) COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 60F ROUGHLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
QUICKLY RADIATE. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE
PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERALL... SIDED NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE OVER FAR EASTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR LOWER 30S AND HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO AREAS OF FROST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTION OF CWA NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING. ELSEWHERE... WENT NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWS MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE DRY AIR HOLD OUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS
CORRECT...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TO THE I-380/HWY 218 CORRIDOR BY LATE
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OVERSPREAD NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING.

HOWEVER...IF THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THEN
PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER FORCING. THE TREND IS FOR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THUS A GENERAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH NOT A GIVEN...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO RAIN
WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO BRINGING A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
THE FORCING IS NOT OVERLY GREAT BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRI MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 6 KFT AGL BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRI.
ALSO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AFTER 12Z/FRI
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AFTER 16Z/FRI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 231805
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH WESTERN IA AND
MO. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION WITH LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA INDUCING WINDS
4-10 KTS TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO SHELTERED AREAS OR VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WX AND CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME THINNING MID CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM WESTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LESS
WIND (10-15 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EAST) COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 60F ROUGHLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
QUICKLY RADIATE. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE
PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERALL... SIDED NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE OVER FAR EASTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR LOWER 30S AND HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO AREAS OF FROST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTION OF CWA NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING. ELSEWHERE... WENT NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWS MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE DRY AIR HOLD OUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS
CORRECT...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TO THE I-380/HWY 218 CORRIDOR BY LATE
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OVERSPREAD NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING.

HOWEVER...IF THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THEN
PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER FORCING. THE TREND IS FOR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THUS A GENERAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH NOT A GIVEN...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO RAIN
WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO BRINGING A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
THE FORCING IS NOT OVERLY GREAT BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRI MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 6 KFT AGL BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRI.
ALSO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AFTER 12Z/FRI
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AFTER 16Z/FRI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 231805
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH WESTERN IA AND
MO. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION WITH LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA INDUCING WINDS
4-10 KTS TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO SHELTERED AREAS OR VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WX AND CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME THINNING MID CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM WESTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LESS
WIND (10-15 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EAST) COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 60F ROUGHLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
QUICKLY RADIATE. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE
PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERALL... SIDED NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE OVER FAR EASTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR LOWER 30S AND HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO AREAS OF FROST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTION OF CWA NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING. ELSEWHERE... WENT NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWS MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE DRY AIR HOLD OUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS
CORRECT...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TO THE I-380/HWY 218 CORRIDOR BY LATE
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OVERSPREAD NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING.

HOWEVER...IF THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THEN
PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER FORCING. THE TREND IS FOR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THUS A GENERAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH NOT A GIVEN...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO RAIN
WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO BRINGING A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
THE FORCING IS NOT OVERLY GREAT BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRI MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 6 KFT AGL BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRI.
ALSO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AFTER 12Z/FRI
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AFTER 16Z/FRI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 231805
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH WESTERN IA AND
MO. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION WITH LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA INDUCING WINDS
4-10 KTS TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO SHELTERED AREAS OR VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WX AND CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME THINNING MID CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM WESTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LESS
WIND (10-15 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EAST) COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 60F ROUGHLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
QUICKLY RADIATE. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE
PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERALL... SIDED NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE OVER FAR EASTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR LOWER 30S AND HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO AREAS OF FROST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTION OF CWA NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING. ELSEWHERE... WENT NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWS MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE DRY AIR HOLD OUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS
CORRECT...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TO THE I-380/HWY 218 CORRIDOR BY LATE
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OVERSPREAD NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING.

HOWEVER...IF THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THEN
PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER FORCING. THE TREND IS FOR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THUS A GENERAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH NOT A GIVEN...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO RAIN
WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO BRINGING A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
THE FORCING IS NOT OVERLY GREAT BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRI MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 6 KFT AGL BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRI.
ALSO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AFTER 12Z/FRI
WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY AFTER 16Z/FRI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 231135
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH WESTERN IA AND
MO. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION WITH LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA INDUCING WINDS
4-10 KTS TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO SHELTERED AREAS OR VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WX AND CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME THINNING MID CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM WESTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LESS
WIND (10-15 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EAST) COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 60F ROUGHLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
QUICKLY RADIATE. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE
PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERALL... SIDED NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE OVER FAR EASTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR LOWER 30S AND HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO AREAS OF FROST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTION OF CWA NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING. ELSEWHERE... WENT NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWS MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE DRY AIR HOLD OUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS
CORRECT...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TO THE I-380/HWY 218 CORRIDOR BY LATE
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OVERSPREAD NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING.

HOWEVER...IF THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THEN
PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER FORCING. THE TREND IS FOR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THUS A GENERAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH NOT A GIVEN...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO RAIN
WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO BRINGING A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
THE FORCING IS NOT OVERLY GREAT BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA THIS AM BEFORE
THINNING LEAVING BEHIND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY... BUT WITH MIXING SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM NORTHWEST BY MID AM THROUGH
MID AFTN WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM. OVERNIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS AND
WINDS BECOMING E/SE 4-8 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 231135
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH WESTERN IA AND
MO. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION WITH LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA INDUCING WINDS
4-10 KTS TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO SHELTERED AREAS OR VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WX AND CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME THINNING MID CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM WESTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LESS
WIND (10-15 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EAST) COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 60F ROUGHLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
QUICKLY RADIATE. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE
PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERALL... SIDED NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE OVER FAR EASTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR LOWER 30S AND HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO AREAS OF FROST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTION OF CWA NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING. ELSEWHERE... WENT NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWS MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE DRY AIR HOLD OUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS
CORRECT...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TO THE I-380/HWY 218 CORRIDOR BY LATE
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OVERSPREAD NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING.

HOWEVER...IF THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THEN
PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER FORCING. THE TREND IS FOR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THUS A GENERAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH NOT A GIVEN...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO RAIN
WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO BRINGING A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
THE FORCING IS NOT OVERLY GREAT BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA THIS AM BEFORE
THINNING LEAVING BEHIND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY... BUT WITH MIXING SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM NORTHWEST BY MID AM THROUGH
MID AFTN WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM. OVERNIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS AND
WINDS BECOMING E/SE 4-8 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 230837
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
337 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH WESTERN IA AND
MO. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION WITH LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA INDUCING WINDS
4-10 KTS TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO SHELTERED AREAS OR VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WX AND CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME THINNING MID CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM WESTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LESS
WIND (10-15 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EAST) COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 60F ROUGHLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
QUICKLY RADIATE. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE
PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERALL... SIDED NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE OVER FAR EASTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR LOWER 30S AND HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO AREAS OF FROST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTION OF CWA NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING. ELSEWHERE... WENT NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWS MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE DRY AIR HOLD OUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS
CORRECT...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TO THE I-380/HWY 218 CORRIDOR BY LATE
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OVERSPREAD NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING.

HOWEVER...IF THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THEN
PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER FORCING. THE TREND IS FOR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THUS A GENERAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH NOT A GIVEN...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO RAIN
WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO BRINGING A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
THE FORCING IS NOT OVERLY GREAT BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT VSBYS OR CEILINGS AT
THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD THE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET TODAY AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE EAST AT ALL SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 230837
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
337 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS AM WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF I-80. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SEVERAL
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH... TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN ND THROUGH WESTERN IA AND
MO. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FRICTION WITH LINGERING GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA INDUCING WINDS
4-10 KTS TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL TO SHELTERED AREAS OR VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING TRANQUIL WX AND CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME THINNING MID CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM WESTERN CWA ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MOST NOTABLE THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LESS
WIND (10-15 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH EAST) COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. VERIFICATION OF HIGHS YESTERDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPORTS HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH SOME AREAS AROUND 60F ROUGHLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF CWA.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEE TEMPS
QUICKLY RADIATE. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMERGING IN THE
PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE TEMP DROP ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA.
OVERALL... SIDED NEAR TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE OVER FAR EASTERN
IA AND NORTHWEST IL WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR LOWER 30S AND HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TO AREAS OF FROST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS PORTION OF CWA NEEDING ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING. ELSEWHERE... WENT NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND WITH LOWS MID 30S
TO AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS HOW LONG WILL THE DRY AIR HOLD OUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IF WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS
CORRECT...THE DAY WILL START OUT DRY BUT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST TO THE I-380/HWY 218 CORRIDOR BY LATE
MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND OVERSPREAD NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING.

HOWEVER...IF THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER THAN WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST THEN
PRECIPITATION COULD EASILY BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 6 HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH MUCH STRONGER FORCING. THE TREND IS FOR THE CENTER
OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THUS A GENERAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH NOT A GIVEN...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT TO RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE 50 ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SO RAIN
WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING
EXITS THE AREA.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED INTO BRINGING A SEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
THE FORCING IS NOT OVERLY GREAT BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT VSBYS OR CEILINGS AT
THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD THE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET TODAY AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE EAST AT ALL SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230430
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT VSBYS OR CEILINGS AT
THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD THE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET TODAY AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE EAST AT ALL SITES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230430
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT VSBYS OR CEILINGS AT
THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD THE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET TODAY AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE EAST AT ALL SITES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 230430
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT VSBYS OR CEILINGS AT
THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD THE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET TODAY AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE EAST AT ALL SITES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230430
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT VSBYS OR CEILINGS AT
THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD THE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET TODAY AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE EAST AT ALL SITES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230430
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VERY ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT VSBYS OR CEILINGS AT
THE TAF SITES. ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD THE WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET TODAY AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE EAST AT ALL SITES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 230116 CCC
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 230116 CCC
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230116 CCC
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230115 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230115 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 230115 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230115 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230115 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UPSTREAM IN MN. 23Z RAP HAS THESE VALUES ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN 5 HOURS AGO. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
WEAKENING...TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE THE BOTTOM COULD DROP
OUT. THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL TELL A LOT ABOUT HOW COLD WE
COULD GET TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWERED LOWS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
HEDGE TOWARDS LOWER TEMPS. IF THE DEWPOINTS DONT CHANGE MUCH WHEN
WE DECOUPLE THEN MAY NEED TO GO EVEN LOWER. WILL MONITOR AND
DECIDE WHAT TO DO AROUND 10PM. HAVE INCLUDED THE RECORD LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AS IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE TEMPS CLOSE TO
THEM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...RECORD LOWS FOR APR 23...

BURLINGTON ...24...1910
CEDAR RAPIDS...20...1927
DUBUQUE...22...1910
MOLINE...22...1910

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 222351
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 222351
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT
ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS TODAY HAS BEEN THE STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE VERY LOW...HOVERING IN THE
TEENS. AT 3 PM THE RH AT THE DAVENPORT AIRPORT WAS DOWN TO 18
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY AND ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE TO SOME EXTENT. THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...SO WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

WITH VEGETATION GREEN-UP WELL UNDERWAY AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE FROM IOWA
STATE UNIVERSITY THAT FRUIT TREES ARE NOW SUSCEPTIBLE TO TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
STARTED THE WARNING AT 2 AM CDT OVER NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MID TO UPPER 20S ARE FORECAST...AND AT 4 AM
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WHERE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST.
BOTH WARNING SEGMENTS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY...FINALLY MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS REACH TO
NEAR 60 F ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CIRRUS AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUDS AFTER LATE EVENING...THUS...LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MAY DIP NEAR 32 IN THE EAST...BUT SHOULD HOLD IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST 1/3.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WINTER LIKE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW...OVER IOWA...AND SURFACE LOW IN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS...MUCH LIKE A SNOW
EVENT...WOULD...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND EAST WINDS.
THUS...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR ENTIRE
CWA...BUT MOST CERTAINLY IN THE SOUTH 1/2.  POPS ARE FORECAST
CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

RAIN...EAST WINDS...AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SATURDAY COOL...BUT ENOUGH
OF FRIDAY SHOULD SEE FILTERED SUN TO GET HIGHS BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SATURDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THAT TOO COULD BE OPTIMISTIC IF THE RAINS MATERIALIZE AS PERSISTENT
AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW.

FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND RAIN SYSTEM...MODELS ARE QUICKLY SHOWING A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DOMINANT
EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW. THIS COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN MAY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. WHILE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CLIPPER TYPE FORCING...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE MORE BREEZY...DEEPLY MIXED DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL FINALLY
START TO SLACKEN TOMORROW. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL DIE OFF
DRAMATICALLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS





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