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000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281803
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
103 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 281803
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
103 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 281803
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
103 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281803
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
103 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281134 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CHANGING TO MVFR TODAY ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. RAIN WILL BE FALLING MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GET WORSE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
RAIN. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD
TO NAIL DOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHEN THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR. TONIGHT
AFTER THE RAIN STOPS VSBYS AND CIGS COULD DROP OFF. GOING MVFR AT
THIS TIME...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF IFR FORMS NEAR 12Z ON THE
29TH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281134 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CHANGING TO MVFR TODAY ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. RAIN WILL BE FALLING MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GET WORSE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
RAIN. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD
TO NAIL DOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHEN THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR. TONIGHT
AFTER THE RAIN STOPS VSBYS AND CIGS COULD DROP OFF. GOING MVFR AT
THIS TIME...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF IFR FORMS NEAR 12Z ON THE
29TH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 281134 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CHANGING TO MVFR TODAY ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. RAIN WILL BE FALLING MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GET WORSE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
RAIN. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD
TO NAIL DOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHEN THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR. TONIGHT
AFTER THE RAIN STOPS VSBYS AND CIGS COULD DROP OFF. GOING MVFR AT
THIS TIME...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF IFR FORMS NEAR 12Z ON THE
29TH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281134 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CHANGING TO MVFR TODAY ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. RAIN WILL BE FALLING MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GET WORSE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
RAIN. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD
TO NAIL DOWN WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHEN THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR. TONIGHT
AFTER THE RAIN STOPS VSBYS AND CIGS COULD DROP OFF. GOING MVFR AT
THIS TIME...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF IFR FORMS NEAR 12Z ON THE
29TH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 280804
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF RAIN ONSET...FROM
LATE MORNING NORTHWEST TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WILL BECOME COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 280804
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL...MONSOON MOISTURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA. A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. THE SFC LOW AND MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE WHERE THE
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE
RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACCORDING TO THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING. DEEPER SFC MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TWO DAYS AGO THE AMERICAN MODELS HAD
PEGGED AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND ECMWF WAS FURTHER NORTH. TODAYS RUNS
ARE SOMEWHAT REVERSED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND THE
AMERICAN MODELS SEEM TO BE BETTER AT RESOLVING WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

DECIDED TO BRING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE
WITH 4KM NAM AND TRENDS FROM THIS YEAR THAT SUGGEST IF LSE IS
PEGGED WITH QPF THEN IT IS USUALLY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN
TREND WAS BROUGHT UP IN THE DAY SHIFTS AFD AND I THINK THAT A
SOUTHERN PUSH IS MORE REALISTIC. THE H5 WAVE IS RATHER OPEN AND
DOESNT SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW MOVES THAT FURTHER NORTH. H85 FLOW
PEGS THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES FOR THE BEST MASS CONVERGENCE.
THIS PAIRED WITH PWATS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...WILL RESULT IN
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM HIGHWAY 30 NORTH. 6Z WPC QPF ALSO
PULLS THE BEST QPF SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND WITH 00Z AND 06Z QPF...THIS RESULTS IN UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR HALF AN INCH IN THE QCA.. CAPE VALUES ARE
LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT....HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOT FORECAST. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
FFA. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT CATEGORICAL POPS MAY NEEDED TO BE PULLED
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MONITOR AND ADVISE THE DAY SHIFT ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.  TWO MAIN ISSUES...ONE IS THE NEED
TO ADD POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AS FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS
MAY OCCUR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE SECOND ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES
AS LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH IF CLOUDS HANG AROUND.  LOWS INTO MONDAY AM ALSO
MAY BE TOO MILD IF BL DECOUPLING AND FAIR SKIES OCCUR.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATE POOR
MODEL QPF (TOO FAR NORTH) AND BL MOISTURE ISSUES TOO DRY FOR A
CHANGE.  TRENDS SUGGEST A 75/25 MIX OF HI-RES ECMWF TO THE TOO
UNSTABLE RUN TO RUN OF THE GFS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO MID DAY.  HIGHS A
CHALLENGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID PM.  SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH
MINS POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG A
RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS.  SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HUMID.  SUNDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST WITH LIGHT WINDS GOOD DECOUPLING AND FOR LOWS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST WITH A DECENT RISK OF FOG FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO REASSESS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND
LOTS OF SUNSHINE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD
PER LOCAL TOOLS BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND
90 DEGREES.  HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AT
LAST A FEW HOURS.  MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S WITH RISK OF FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.  FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO KICK OF SOME
PATCHY PRECIPITATION OF SHOWERS OR A STORM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
RECONSIDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF RAIN ONSET...FROM
LATE MORNING NORTHWEST TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WILL BECOME COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 280432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...MID-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAS RESULTED IN FILTERED SUNSHINE LOCALLY WHICH HAS
KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. DVN RADAR WAS
DETECTING SOME ELEVATED ECHOES OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DO NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED THETAE PLUME EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD THROUGH E KANSAS INTO SE NEBRASKA/W IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT...500MB VORT. MAX AND SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO ENTER INTO
WESTERN IOWA. ATMOSPHERE PRECEDING THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER
DRY. 12Z/8.27 DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 800MB
WHERE RH VALUES WERE NEAR 15 PERCENT. THUS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE RAIN LOCALLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO 7 AM FRI IS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHERE POPS INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW ONE-THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE.
ALONG THIS LINE...0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...FURTHER NW 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TO
THE S/SE...AND ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. SINCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS INCORPORATED MONSOONAL
/SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...PWATS WILL BE HIGH NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN RATES AT TIMES.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE UPPER AGEO. DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH FAVORS NORTHERN IOWA/SE
MINNESOTA/S WISCONSIN TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. 0-1 KM
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE 850MB LOW AND 850-700MB
WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE GEFS RAW
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP FORECAST HAS THE QPF BULLSEYE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. GOING FORECAST PUTS A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXITING
SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST FEATURES A
WARMING TREND SUPPORTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MID
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND
TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN IA OR FAR NW IL BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR WITH LIKELIES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE LACKING INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM WORDING...WHICH IS MORE
FAVORED IN THE EVENING. LARGELY STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN SHOULD BE IN
THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WASHES OUT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE
EAST...WHILE MOST OF EASTERN IA SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH APPEAR TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE DEPARTING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT N-NW
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THUS GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK
FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN THE FORECAST IN LATTER UPDATES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO RETURN TO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS MAY RECOVER TO THE LOWER 80S. THE MID AND UPPER
80S ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD REQUIRE DEEP MIXING...NOT SUPPORTED
BY THIS SETUP.

NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SW FLOW...FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO ENVELOPE THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FROM TUE THROUGH THU
WITH MINS IN THE 60S...WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY SEP NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF RAIN ONSET...FROM
LATE MORNING NORTHWEST TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WILL BECOME COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 280432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...MID-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAS RESULTED IN FILTERED SUNSHINE LOCALLY WHICH HAS
KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. DVN RADAR WAS
DETECTING SOME ELEVATED ECHOES OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DO NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED THETAE PLUME EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD THROUGH E KANSAS INTO SE NEBRASKA/W IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT...500MB VORT. MAX AND SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO ENTER INTO
WESTERN IOWA. ATMOSPHERE PRECEDING THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER
DRY. 12Z/8.27 DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 800MB
WHERE RH VALUES WERE NEAR 15 PERCENT. THUS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE RAIN LOCALLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO 7 AM FRI IS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHERE POPS INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW ONE-THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE.
ALONG THIS LINE...0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...FURTHER NW 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TO
THE S/SE...AND ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. SINCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS INCORPORATED MONSOONAL
/SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...PWATS WILL BE HIGH NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN RATES AT TIMES.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE UPPER AGEO. DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH FAVORS NORTHERN IOWA/SE
MINNESOTA/S WISCONSIN TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. 0-1 KM
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE 850MB LOW AND 850-700MB
WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE GEFS RAW
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP FORECAST HAS THE QPF BULLSEYE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. GOING FORECAST PUTS A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXITING
SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST FEATURES A
WARMING TREND SUPPORTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MID
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND
TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN IA OR FAR NW IL BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR WITH LIKELIES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE LACKING INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM WORDING...WHICH IS MORE
FAVORED IN THE EVENING. LARGELY STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN SHOULD BE IN
THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WASHES OUT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE
EAST...WHILE MOST OF EASTERN IA SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH APPEAR TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE DEPARTING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT N-NW
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THUS GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK
FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN THE FORECAST IN LATTER UPDATES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO RETURN TO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS MAY RECOVER TO THE LOWER 80S. THE MID AND UPPER
80S ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD REQUIRE DEEP MIXING...NOT SUPPORTED
BY THIS SETUP.

NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SW FLOW...FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO ENVELOPE THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FROM TUE THROUGH THU
WITH MINS IN THE 60S...WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY SEP NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF RAIN ONSET...FROM
LATE MORNING NORTHWEST TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WILL BECOME COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 272355
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...MID-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAS RESULTED IN FILTERED SUNSHINE LOCALLY WHICH HAS
KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. DVN RADAR WAS
DETECTING SOME ELEVATED ECHOES OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DO NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED THETAE PLUME EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD THROUGH E KANSAS INTO SE NEBRASKA/W IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT...500MB VORT. MAX AND SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO ENTER INTO
WESTERN IOWA. ATMOSPHERE PRECEDING THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER
DRY. 12Z/8.27 DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 800MB
WHERE RH VALUES WERE NEAR 15 PERCENT. THUS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE RAIN LOCALLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO 7 AM FRI IS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHERE POPS INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW ONE-THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE.
ALONG THIS LINE...0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...FURTHER NW 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TO
THE S/SE...AND ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. SINCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS INCORPORATED MONSOONAL
/SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...PWATS WILL BE HIGH NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN RATES AT TIMES.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE UPPER AGEO. DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH FAVORS NORTHERN IOWA/SE
MINNESOTA/S WISCONSIN TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. 0-1 KM
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE 850MB LOW AND 850-700MB
WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE GEFS RAW
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP FORECAST HAS THE QPF BULLSEYE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. GOING FORECAST PUTS A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXITING
SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST FEATURES A
WARMING TREND SUPPORTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MID
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND
TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN IA OR FAR NW IL BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR WITH LIKELIES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE LACKING INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM WORDING...WHICH IS MORE
FAVORED IN THE EVENING. LARGELY STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN SHOULD BE IN
THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WASHES OUT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE
EAST...WHILE MOST OF EASTERN IA SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH APPEAR TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE DEPARTING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT N-NW
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THUS GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK
FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN THE FORECAST IN LATTER UPDATES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO RETURN TO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS MAY RECOVER TO THE LOWER 80S. THE MID AND UPPER
80S ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD REQUIRE DEEP MIXING...NOT SUPPORTED
BY THIS SETUP.

NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SW FLOW...FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO ENVELOPE THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FROM TUE THROUGH THU
WITH MINS IN THE 60S...WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY SEP NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO KCID INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY KDBQ DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KMLI/KBRL. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME COMMON FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 272355
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...MID-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAS RESULTED IN FILTERED SUNSHINE LOCALLY WHICH HAS
KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. DVN RADAR WAS
DETECTING SOME ELEVATED ECHOES OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DO NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED THETAE PLUME EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD THROUGH E KANSAS INTO SE NEBRASKA/W IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT...500MB VORT. MAX AND SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO ENTER INTO
WESTERN IOWA. ATMOSPHERE PRECEDING THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER
DRY. 12Z/8.27 DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 800MB
WHERE RH VALUES WERE NEAR 15 PERCENT. THUS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE RAIN LOCALLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO 7 AM FRI IS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHERE POPS INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW ONE-THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE.
ALONG THIS LINE...0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...FURTHER NW 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TO
THE S/SE...AND ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. SINCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS INCORPORATED MONSOONAL
/SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...PWATS WILL BE HIGH NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN RATES AT TIMES.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE UPPER AGEO. DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH FAVORS NORTHERN IOWA/SE
MINNESOTA/S WISCONSIN TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. 0-1 KM
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE 850MB LOW AND 850-700MB
WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE GEFS RAW
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP FORECAST HAS THE QPF BULLSEYE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. GOING FORECAST PUTS A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXITING
SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST FEATURES A
WARMING TREND SUPPORTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MID
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND
TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN IA OR FAR NW IL BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR WITH LIKELIES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE LACKING INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM WORDING...WHICH IS MORE
FAVORED IN THE EVENING. LARGELY STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN SHOULD BE IN
THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WASHES OUT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE
EAST...WHILE MOST OF EASTERN IA SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH APPEAR TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE DEPARTING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT N-NW
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THUS GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK
FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN THE FORECAST IN LATTER UPDATES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO RETURN TO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS MAY RECOVER TO THE LOWER 80S. THE MID AND UPPER
80S ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD REQUIRE DEEP MIXING...NOT SUPPORTED
BY THIS SETUP.

NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SW FLOW...FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO ENVELOPE THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FROM TUE THROUGH THU
WITH MINS IN THE 60S...WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY SEP NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO KCID INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY KDBQ DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KMLI/KBRL. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME COMMON FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 272355
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...MID-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAS RESULTED IN FILTERED SUNSHINE LOCALLY WHICH HAS
KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. DVN RADAR WAS
DETECTING SOME ELEVATED ECHOES OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DO NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED THETAE PLUME EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD THROUGH E KANSAS INTO SE NEBRASKA/W IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT...500MB VORT. MAX AND SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO ENTER INTO
WESTERN IOWA. ATMOSPHERE PRECEDING THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER
DRY. 12Z/8.27 DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 800MB
WHERE RH VALUES WERE NEAR 15 PERCENT. THUS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE RAIN LOCALLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO 7 AM FRI IS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHERE POPS INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW ONE-THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE.
ALONG THIS LINE...0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...FURTHER NW 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TO
THE S/SE...AND ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. SINCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS INCORPORATED MONSOONAL
/SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...PWATS WILL BE HIGH NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN RATES AT TIMES.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE UPPER AGEO. DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH FAVORS NORTHERN IOWA/SE
MINNESOTA/S WISCONSIN TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. 0-1 KM
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE 850MB LOW AND 850-700MB
WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE GEFS RAW
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP FORECAST HAS THE QPF BULLSEYE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. GOING FORECAST PUTS A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXITING
SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST FEATURES A
WARMING TREND SUPPORTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MID
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND
TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN IA OR FAR NW IL BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR WITH LIKELIES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE LACKING INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM WORDING...WHICH IS MORE
FAVORED IN THE EVENING. LARGELY STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN SHOULD BE IN
THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WASHES OUT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE
EAST...WHILE MOST OF EASTERN IA SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH APPEAR TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE DEPARTING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT N-NW
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THUS GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK
FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN THE FORECAST IN LATTER UPDATES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO RETURN TO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS MAY RECOVER TO THE LOWER 80S. THE MID AND UPPER
80S ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD REQUIRE DEEP MIXING...NOT SUPPORTED
BY THIS SETUP.

NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SW FLOW...FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO ENVELOPE THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FROM TUE THROUGH THU
WITH MINS IN THE 60S...WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY SEP NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO KCID INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY KDBQ DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KMLI/KBRL. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME COMMON FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 272355
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...MID-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAS RESULTED IN FILTERED SUNSHINE LOCALLY WHICH HAS
KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. DVN RADAR WAS
DETECTING SOME ELEVATED ECHOES OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DO NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED THETAE PLUME EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD THROUGH E KANSAS INTO SE NEBRASKA/W IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT...500MB VORT. MAX AND SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO ENTER INTO
WESTERN IOWA. ATMOSPHERE PRECEDING THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER
DRY. 12Z/8.27 DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 800MB
WHERE RH VALUES WERE NEAR 15 PERCENT. THUS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE RAIN LOCALLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO 7 AM FRI IS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHERE POPS INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW ONE-THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE.
ALONG THIS LINE...0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...FURTHER NW 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TO
THE S/SE...AND ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. SINCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS INCORPORATED MONSOONAL
/SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...PWATS WILL BE HIGH NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN RATES AT TIMES.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE UPPER AGEO. DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH FAVORS NORTHERN IOWA/SE
MINNESOTA/S WISCONSIN TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. 0-1 KM
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE 850MB LOW AND 850-700MB
WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE GEFS RAW
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP FORECAST HAS THE QPF BULLSEYE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. GOING FORECAST PUTS A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXITING
SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST FEATURES A
WARMING TREND SUPPORTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MID
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND
TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN IA OR FAR NW IL BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR WITH LIKELIES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE LACKING INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM WORDING...WHICH IS MORE
FAVORED IN THE EVENING. LARGELY STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN SHOULD BE IN
THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WASHES OUT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE
EAST...WHILE MOST OF EASTERN IA SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH APPEAR TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE DEPARTING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT N-NW
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THUS GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK
FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN THE FORECAST IN LATTER UPDATES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO RETURN TO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS MAY RECOVER TO THE LOWER 80S. THE MID AND UPPER
80S ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD REQUIRE DEEP MIXING...NOT SUPPORTED
BY THIS SETUP.

NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SW FLOW...FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO ENVELOPE THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FROM TUE THROUGH THU
WITH MINS IN THE 60S...WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY SEP NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO KCID INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY KDBQ DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KMLI/KBRL. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME COMMON FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 272035
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...MID-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA HAS RESULTED IN FILTERED SUNSHINE LOCALLY WHICH HAS
KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. DVN RADAR WAS
DETECTING SOME ELEVATED ECHOES OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DO NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS. THE ASSOCIATED THETAE PLUME EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD THROUGH E KANSAS INTO SE NEBRASKA/W IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TONIGHT...500MB VORT. MAX AND SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO ENTER INTO
WESTERN IOWA. ATMOSPHERE PRECEDING THESE TWO FEATURES IS RATHER
DRY. 12Z/8.27 DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 800MB
WHERE RH VALUES WERE NEAR 15 PERCENT. THUS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE RAIN LOCALLY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO 7 AM FRI IS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WHERE POPS INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW ONE-THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE.
ALONG THIS LINE...0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...FURTHER NW 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY TO
THE S/SE...AND ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE. SINCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS INCORPORATED MONSOONAL
/SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...PWATS WILL BE HIGH NEAR 1.75 INCHES WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN RATES AT TIMES.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE UPPER AGEO. DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH FAVORS NORTHERN IOWA/SE
MINNESOTA/S WISCONSIN TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. 0-1 KM
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THE 850MB LOW AND 850-700MB
WAA IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE GEFS RAW
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP FORECAST HAS THE QPF BULLSEYE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. GOING FORECAST PUTS A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXITING
SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST FEATURES A
WARMING TREND SUPPORTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MID
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND
TRANSITIONING ACROSS EASTERN IA OR FAR NW IL BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR WITH LIKELIES OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE LACKING INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM WORDING...WHICH IS MORE
FAVORED IN THE EVENING. LARGELY STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN SHOULD BE IN
THE RANGE OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE
SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WASHES OUT TO OUR EAST WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE
EAST...WHILE MOST OF EASTERN IA SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO LOWER 80S SOUTH APPEAR TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE DEPARTING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON LIGHT N-NW
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THUS GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/S HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK
FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAY LEAD TO A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN THE FORECAST IN LATTER UPDATES. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO RETURN TO A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS MAY RECOVER TO THE LOWER 80S. THE MID AND UPPER
80S ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WOULD REQUIRE DEEP MIXING...NOT SUPPORTED
BY THIS SETUP.

NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A SW FLOW...FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...
ALLOWING MUCH WARMER AIR TO ENVELOPE THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FROM TUE THROUGH THU
WITH MINS IN THE 60S...WHICH WOULD BE ROUGHLY 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
EARLY SEP NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE AT VFR. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO W IOWA BY FRI MORNING WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. BEST CHANCE FOR -RA/RA IS AT KCID DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WHERE VSBYS MAY FALL TO MVFR.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FRI AFTN AND EVENING.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 271724
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1224 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT
MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE STILL IN
GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE REGION
BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT IS.
INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW EVOLUTION
OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING WITH A
PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MCV. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND UPSLOPE
HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS FROM
THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE AT VFR. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO W IOWA BY FRI MORNING WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. BEST CHANCE FOR -RA/RA IS AT KCID DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WHERE VSBYS MAY FALL TO MVFR.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FRI AFTN AND EVENING.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 271724
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1224 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT
MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE STILL IN
GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE REGION
BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT IS.
INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW EVOLUTION
OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING WITH A
PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MCV. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND UPSLOPE
HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS FROM
THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE AT VFR. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO W IOWA BY FRI MORNING WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. BEST CHANCE FOR -RA/RA IS AT KCID DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WHERE VSBYS MAY FALL TO MVFR.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FRI AFTN AND EVENING.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 271724
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1224 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT
MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE STILL IN
GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE REGION
BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT IS.
INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW EVOLUTION
OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING WITH A
PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MCV. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND UPSLOPE
HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS FROM
THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE AT VFR. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO W IOWA BY FRI MORNING WILL ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS. BEST CHANCE FOR -RA/RA IS AT KCID DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WHERE VSBYS MAY FALL TO MVFR.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FRI AFTN AND EVENING.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 271129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND
WHERE IS MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE
STILL IN GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE
REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT
IS. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING
WITH A PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MVC. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND
UPSLOPE HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH ANOTHER TAF CYCLE...AS THE SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM FOUND OVER WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN TO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 271129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND
WHERE IS MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE
STILL IN GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE
REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT
IS. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING
WITH A PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MVC. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND
UPSLOPE HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH ANOTHER TAF CYCLE...AS THE SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM FOUND OVER WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN TO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 271129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND
WHERE IS MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE
STILL IN GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE
REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT
IS. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING
WITH A PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MVC. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND
UPSLOPE HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH ANOTHER TAF CYCLE...AS THE SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM FOUND OVER WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN TO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 271129 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT
MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE STILL IN
GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE REGION
BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT IS.
INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW EVOLUTION
OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING WITH A
PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MCV. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND UPSLOPE
HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS FROM
THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH ANOTHER TAF CYCLE...AS THE SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM FOUND OVER WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN TO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

...CORRECTED TO REMOVE OUTDATED AVIATION SECTION...

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 271129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND
WHERE IS MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE
STILL IN GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE
REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT
IS. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING
WITH A PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MVC. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND
UPSLOPE HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH ANOTHER TAF CYCLE...AS THE SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM FOUND OVER WESTERN IOWA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN TO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY AND EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS. TONIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND
WHERE IS MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE
STILL IN GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE
REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT
IS. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING
WITH A PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MVC. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND
UPSLOPE HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 270817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND
WHERE IS MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE
STILL IN GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE
REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT
IS. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING
WITH A PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MVC. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND
UPSLOPE HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND
WHERE IS MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE
STILL IN GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE
REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT
IS. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING
WITH A PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MVC. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND
UPSLOPE HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 270817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
GREAT LAKES REGIONS EARLY TODAY...WHILE WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ARC OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S WIDESPREAD AS OF 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND
WHERE IS MOVES...AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THAT FEATURE WILL BE ARE
STILL IN GREAT DOUBT...DESPITE THAT LOWS EXPECTED IMPACT ON THE
REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TYPE OF LOW IT
IS. INSTEAD OF TRACKING SOME LARGE JET OR WATCHING THE SLOW
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW EXITING A DEEP TROF...WE ARE DEALING
WITH A PROCESS MORE IN LINE WITH AN MVC. MONSOONAL CONVECTION AND
UPSLOPE HAVE INDEED FIRED AN CLUSTER OF STORMS...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THAT PROCESS IS RATHER UNPREDICTABLE. THUS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

THANKFULLY...IN THE SHORT TERM... THE AFFECTS OF THIS TROUBLESOME
STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT GREATLY IMPACT OUR CWA. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME INCREASE OF HIGH CLOUD COVER DURING THE
DAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10
MPH BY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SUN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 SEEM ON TARGET.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE FOCUS WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR TRANSITION OF THE POTENTIAL LOW...WILL KEEP
WINDS BACKED FOR QUITE A WHILE...BEFORE AN EVENTUAL VEERING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AROUND 3 AM. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ...RUMBLES...OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN
BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN LIKELY POPS
YET. LOWS UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN PAST
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISES QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
EASTWARD PROGRESS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING/MOISTURE...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.

INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIMITED BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT DAY TIME
HEATING THAT OCCURS...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE RAIN SHIELD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
BEGINS AND THEN COLLAPSE BACK INTO THE 60S WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GENERAL RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LIGHT TO POSSIBLY
MODERATE.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY ON...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE ARE WEAK
INFERRED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270442
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WESTERN
FRINGE OF LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE DVN CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH...OF
NOTE WAS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. THE SMOKE WAS FIRST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S ON AVG. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EVAPORATING QUICKLY.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S ON AVG. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST
OF THE ROCKIES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY WED.

WHILE 12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE RIDING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS IA AND MN FRI INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PLACEMENT LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM...PLACING THE SURFACE LOW IN FAR NE NEB
FRI MORNING...TRACKING EAST ACROSS IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HAS VEERED OFF TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER OTHER MODELS HAVE THE FEATURE STEERING E-
SE AND WEAKENING SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ISOLATED TO THE FAR NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE IT MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPING LIGHT SE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FEEDING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DURING THE
DAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
IA INTO SOUTHERN MN IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE
CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO THE NW WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE FAR EAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE RAIN UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW...CLOSER TO
HIGHER MUCAPES WELL TO THE SW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SE...WHILE THE FAR N AND NE MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING
FASHION...SUPPORTING HIGHEST POPS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. EVENT TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-LOOKING 1 PLUS INCH BULLSEYES IN THE MODELS
MOSTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NW. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AT LEAST THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE
SUPPORTS A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 270442
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WESTERN
FRINGE OF LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE DVN CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH...OF
NOTE WAS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. THE SMOKE WAS FIRST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S ON AVG. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EVAPORATING QUICKLY.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S ON AVG. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST
OF THE ROCKIES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY WED.

WHILE 12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE RIDING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS IA AND MN FRI INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PLACEMENT LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM...PLACING THE SURFACE LOW IN FAR NE NEB
FRI MORNING...TRACKING EAST ACROSS IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HAS VEERED OFF TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER OTHER MODELS HAVE THE FEATURE STEERING E-
SE AND WEAKENING SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ISOLATED TO THE FAR NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE IT MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPING LIGHT SE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FEEDING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DURING THE
DAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
IA INTO SOUTHERN MN IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE
CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO THE NW WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE FAR EAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE RAIN UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW...CLOSER TO
HIGHER MUCAPES WELL TO THE SW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SE...WHILE THE FAR N AND NE MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING
FASHION...SUPPORTING HIGHEST POPS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. EVENT TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-LOOKING 1 PLUS INCH BULLSEYES IN THE MODELS
MOSTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NW. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AT LEAST THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE
SUPPORTS A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING S/SE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASING NEAR
10 KTS. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 262310
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WESTERN
FRINGE OF LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE DVN CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH...OF
NOTE WAS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. THE SMOKE WAS FIRST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S ON AVG. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EVAPORATING QUICKLY.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S ON AVG. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST
OF THE ROCKIES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY WED.

WHILE 12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE RIDING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS IA AND MN FRI INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PLACEMENT LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM...PLACING THE SURFACE LOW IN FAR NE NEB
FRI MORNING...TRACKING EAST ACROSS IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HAS VEERED OFF TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER OTHER MODELS HAVE THE FEATURE STEERING E-
SE AND WEAKENING SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ISOLATED TO THE FAR NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE IT MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPING LIGHT SE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FEEDING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DURING THE
DAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
IA INTO SOUTHERN MN IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE
CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO THE NW WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE FAR EAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE RAIN UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW...CLOSER TO
HIGHER MUCAPES WELL TO THE SW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SE...WHILE THE FAR N AND NE MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING
FASHION...SUPPORTING HIGHEST POPS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. EVENT TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-LOOKING 1 PLUS INCH BULLSEYES IN THE MODELS
MOSTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NW. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AT LEAST THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE
SUPPORTS A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME S/SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 262310
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WESTERN
FRINGE OF LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE DVN CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH...OF
NOTE WAS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. THE SMOKE WAS FIRST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S ON AVG. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EVAPORATING QUICKLY.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S ON AVG. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST
OF THE ROCKIES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY WED.

WHILE 12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE RIDING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS IA AND MN FRI INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PLACEMENT LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM...PLACING THE SURFACE LOW IN FAR NE NEB
FRI MORNING...TRACKING EAST ACROSS IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HAS VEERED OFF TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER OTHER MODELS HAVE THE FEATURE STEERING E-
SE AND WEAKENING SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ISOLATED TO THE FAR NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE IT MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPING LIGHT SE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FEEDING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DURING THE
DAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
IA INTO SOUTHERN MN IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE
CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO THE NW WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE FAR EAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE RAIN UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW...CLOSER TO
HIGHER MUCAPES WELL TO THE SW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SE...WHILE THE FAR N AND NE MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING
FASHION...SUPPORTING HIGHEST POPS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. EVENT TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-LOOKING 1 PLUS INCH BULLSEYES IN THE MODELS
MOSTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NW. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AT LEAST THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE
SUPPORTS A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME S/SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 262310
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WESTERN
FRINGE OF LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE DVN CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH...OF
NOTE WAS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. THE SMOKE WAS FIRST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S ON AVG. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EVAPORATING QUICKLY.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S ON AVG. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST
OF THE ROCKIES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY WED.

WHILE 12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE RIDING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS IA AND MN FRI INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PLACEMENT LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM...PLACING THE SURFACE LOW IN FAR NE NEB
FRI MORNING...TRACKING EAST ACROSS IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HAS VEERED OFF TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER OTHER MODELS HAVE THE FEATURE STEERING E-
SE AND WEAKENING SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ISOLATED TO THE FAR NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE IT MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPING LIGHT SE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FEEDING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DURING THE
DAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
IA INTO SOUTHERN MN IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE
CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO THE NW WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE FAR EAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE RAIN UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW...CLOSER TO
HIGHER MUCAPES WELL TO THE SW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SE...WHILE THE FAR N AND NE MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING
FASHION...SUPPORTING HIGHEST POPS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. EVENT TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-LOOKING 1 PLUS INCH BULLSEYES IN THE MODELS
MOSTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NW. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AT LEAST THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE
SUPPORTS A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME S/SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 262310
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WESTERN
FRINGE OF LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE DVN CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH...OF
NOTE WAS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. THE SMOKE WAS FIRST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S ON AVG. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EVAPORATING QUICKLY.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S ON AVG. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST
OF THE ROCKIES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY WED.

WHILE 12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE RIDING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS IA AND MN FRI INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PLACEMENT LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM...PLACING THE SURFACE LOW IN FAR NE NEB
FRI MORNING...TRACKING EAST ACROSS IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HAS VEERED OFF TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER OTHER MODELS HAVE THE FEATURE STEERING E-
SE AND WEAKENING SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ISOLATED TO THE FAR NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE IT MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPING LIGHT SE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FEEDING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DURING THE
DAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
IA INTO SOUTHERN MN IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE
CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO THE NW WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE FAR EAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE RAIN UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW...CLOSER TO
HIGHER MUCAPES WELL TO THE SW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SE...WHILE THE FAR N AND NE MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING
FASHION...SUPPORTING HIGHEST POPS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. EVENT TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-LOOKING 1 PLUS INCH BULLSEYES IN THE MODELS
MOSTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NW. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AT LEAST THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE
SUPPORTS A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME S/SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 262017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AS OF 3 PM CDT...GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WESTERN
FRINGE OF LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE DVN CWA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR. ALTHOUGH...OF
NOTE WAS A EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS. THE SMOKE WAS FIRST PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DVN FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. TEMPS
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS...GENERALLY
IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

TONIGHT...SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOL LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S ON AVG. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FOG IN
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE EVAPORATING QUICKLY.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...REACHING THE
UPPER 70S ON AVG. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTING WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST
OF THE ROCKIES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DEVELOPING MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY WED.

WHILE 12Z MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE RIDING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS IA AND MN FRI INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PLACEMENT LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM...PLACING THE SURFACE LOW IN FAR NE NEB
FRI MORNING...TRACKING EAST ACROSS IA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
HAS VEERED OFF TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...
ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OTHER OTHER MODELS HAVE THE FEATURE STEERING E-
SE AND WEAKENING SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ISOLATED TO THE FAR NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE IT MAY END UP BEING CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVE IN. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPING LIGHT SE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FEEDING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE DURING THE
DAY...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIALLY FOCUS
RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
IA INTO SOUTHERN MN IN THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE
CONFINED LIKELY POPS TO THE NW WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE FAR EAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE RAIN UNTIL EVENING. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FAR SW...CLOSER TO
HIGHER MUCAPES WELL TO THE SW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SE...WHILE THE FAR N AND NE MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING
FASHION...SUPPORTING HIGHEST POPS NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY. EVENT TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE IN A GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH...WITH
THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-LOOKING 1 PLUS INCH BULLSEYES IN THE MODELS
MOSTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NW. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
AT LEAST THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 60S. A DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL REMNANTS OVER THE SE
SUPPORTS A DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST DRY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261721
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST DRY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261721
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST DRY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261721
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST DRY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 261721
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST DRY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 261122
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT
TODAY...WHILE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS ARE PREFERRED...UNDER 6 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
WILL DOMINATE AFTER THE EARLY MORNING 5000 FT MID DECK CLOUDS
FINISH DISSIPATING. VISIBILTIES SHOULD BE UNLIMITED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY 6 MILES OR BETTER TONIGHT...WITH A VERY LOW
RISK FOR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING SUNRISE.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 261122
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT
TODAY...WHILE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS ARE PREFERRED...UNDER 6 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
WILL DOMINATE AFTER THE EARLY MORNING 5000 FT MID DECK CLOUDS
FINISH DISSIPATING. VISIBILTIES SHOULD BE UNLIMITED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY 6 MILES OR BETTER TONIGHT...WITH A VERY LOW
RISK FOR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING SUNRISE.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261122
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT
TODAY...WHILE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS ARE PREFERRED...UNDER 6 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
WILL DOMINATE AFTER THE EARLY MORNING 5000 FT MID DECK CLOUDS
FINISH DISSIPATING. VISIBILTIES SHOULD BE UNLIMITED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY 6 MILES OR BETTER TONIGHT...WITH A VERY LOW
RISK FOR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING SUNRISE.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 261122
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT
TODAY...WHILE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
DIRECTIONS ARE PREFERRED...UNDER 6 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
WILL DOMINATE AFTER THE EARLY MORNING 5000 FT MID DECK CLOUDS
FINISH DISSIPATING. VISIBILTIES SHOULD BE UNLIMITED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY 6 MILES OR BETTER TONIGHT...WITH A VERY LOW
RISK FOR SHALLOW FOG TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING SUNRISE.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 260826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 260826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 260826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 260826
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MUCH LIKE A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERIFIES
BEST IN QUIET WEATHER...THE CLOUDS HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AS WELL. LIKE LAST NIGHT...RIGHT DOWN TO THE COUNTY
LEVEL...MID CLOUDS ARE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS KEEPING FAR EASTERN IOWA IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60...AS WELL AS ILLINOIS NORTH OF MACOMB AND
GALESBURG. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...CLEAR SKIES HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH 2 AM...AND
SHOULD FALL ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THAT LEVEL BY DAWN. THE
NORTHEAST HALF WILL SEE CLEARING MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS A
RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING COMING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SUN RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY FACTOR INTO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. IN MOST CASES...THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH
EVEN IN OPEN AREAS. IN TOWN...ONLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE AUGUST SUN WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THIS
SHALLOW MIXING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS OF 73
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GENERALLY ABOUT 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WITH A PERSISTENCE +1
FORECAST WORKING THE PAST TWO DAYS...I AM QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH
THAT. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WIDESPREAD LOWER 50S IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEM RIGHT ON TARGET. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND DRY.
THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GET BY SUNRISE. SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT MAY INHIBIT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE BETTER MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION IS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
BUT THERE MAY BE AN ELEVATED WING OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DBQ TO IRK LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE QUESTION FRIDAY IS WHERE WILL THE SYSTEM MOVE. CONTINUITY ON THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS IS QUITE LOW AND THE CURRENT RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. CONCEPTUALLY...THE SYSTEM AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME. THUS WHERE
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INITIALLY DEVELOPS WILL BE IMPORTANT.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL LAYER OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WHICH COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN IS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO MAX
TEMPERATURES. THOSE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MOST OF THE DAY COULD EASILY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM AND RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ON...

ON SATURDAY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS




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