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000
FXUS63 KDVN 240010
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
PRODUCING LOTS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ANALYSIS TRENDS SUGGEST STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PHASE WITH THIS LOW LATE TONIGHT RESULTING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW TOTALS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR WITH OVERALL TRENDS
GOOD BUT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SNOW AND POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SLEET
MAIN ISSUE...PLUS FOG THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH ISALLOBARIC GUSTS TO
40 MPH...NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...THIS EVENING...WIND TO LIGHTEN WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONT PASSES TOWARD MIDNIGHT INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD BE CLOSE FOR SOME
AREAS NEAR WHERE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY
UNTIL FRONT PASSES WITH 5 TO 8 DEGREE DROPS PER HOUR EXPECTED AFTER
FRONT PASSES FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WIND AND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SLEET AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW DUE TO STRONG CAA.

MONDAY...FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE INTERACTING WITH
FRONT TO PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. SNOW
MAY INITIALLY MELT AND FREEZE WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTING 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 AREA AND WITH STRONG WINDS...FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING FOR BLACK ICE AND LOCALIZED DRIFTING AND
POSSIBLY LOW END BLOWING OF SNOW TOWARD END TO THE EVENT IMPACTING
VISIBILITIES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 8 AM FOR ALMOST ALL THE AREA WITH
25 TO 35+ MPH WINDS AND SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAKING NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DUE TO COMBINATION OF SNOW...WIND AND CRASHING TEMPERATURES ARE REASON
FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY WEST AND 9 PM EAST
MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SNOW TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST. AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO POSSIBLY ONE HALF
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE QUIET AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE SPREAD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS QUITE
LARGE BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA.

AS SUCH...AN AREA OF SNOW IN THE WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER SNOW
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS
LOCATED.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT REGARDING
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AS
SUGGESTED BY ONE MODEL THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS.

A VERY PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE IS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TO SEE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. FOR I-80 TO HIGHWAY 20 AN INCH OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR MAY SEE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN HAS
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AREA. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT BUT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
WHERE THE DISTURBANCE WILL GO AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOWER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A LARGE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP IFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS EVENING...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR AND PERIODS OF VLIFR CONDITIONS. A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WILL SWEEP OUT THE DENSE
FOG...AND BRING THE ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL CHANGE THE DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO
A RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING MONDAY.
THE 00Z TAFS HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE...BROAD PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW LIKELY ENDING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
FURTHER REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AT SOME SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 240010
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
PRODUCING LOTS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ANALYSIS TRENDS SUGGEST STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PHASE WITH THIS LOW LATE TONIGHT RESULTING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW TOTALS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR WITH OVERALL TRENDS
GOOD BUT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SNOW AND POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SLEET
MAIN ISSUE...PLUS FOG THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH ISALLOBARIC GUSTS TO
40 MPH...NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...THIS EVENING...WIND TO LIGHTEN WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONT PASSES TOWARD MIDNIGHT INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD BE CLOSE FOR SOME
AREAS NEAR WHERE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY
UNTIL FRONT PASSES WITH 5 TO 8 DEGREE DROPS PER HOUR EXPECTED AFTER
FRONT PASSES FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WIND AND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SLEET AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW DUE TO STRONG CAA.

MONDAY...FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE INTERACTING WITH
FRONT TO PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. SNOW
MAY INITIALLY MELT AND FREEZE WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTING 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 AREA AND WITH STRONG WINDS...FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING FOR BLACK ICE AND LOCALIZED DRIFTING AND
POSSIBLY LOW END BLOWING OF SNOW TOWARD END TO THE EVENT IMPACTING
VISIBILITIES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 8 AM FOR ALMOST ALL THE AREA WITH
25 TO 35+ MPH WINDS AND SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAKING NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DUE TO COMBINATION OF SNOW...WIND AND CRASHING TEMPERATURES ARE REASON
FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY WEST AND 9 PM EAST
MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SNOW TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST. AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO POSSIBLY ONE HALF
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE QUIET AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE SPREAD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS QUITE
LARGE BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA.

AS SUCH...AN AREA OF SNOW IN THE WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER SNOW
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS
LOCATED.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT REGARDING
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AS
SUGGESTED BY ONE MODEL THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS.

A VERY PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE IS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TO SEE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. FOR I-80 TO HIGHWAY 20 AN INCH OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR MAY SEE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN HAS
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AREA. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT BUT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
WHERE THE DISTURBANCE WILL GO AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOWER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A LARGE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP IFR
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS EVENING...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR AND PERIODS OF VLIFR CONDITIONS. A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WILL SWEEP OUT THE DENSE
FOG...AND BRING THE ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL CHANGE THE DRIZZLE AND RAIN TO
A RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING MONDAY.
THE 00Z TAFS HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE...BROAD PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW LIKELY ENDING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
FURTHER REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z AT SOME SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 232106
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
PRODUCING LOTS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ANALYSIS TRENDS SUGGEST STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PHASE WITH THIS LOW LATE TONIGHT RESULTING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW TOTALS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR WITH OVERALL TRENDS
GOOD BUT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SNOW AND POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SLEET
MAIN ISSUE...PLUS FOG THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH ISALLOBARIC GUSTS TO
40 MPH...NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...THIS EVENING...WIND TO LIGHTEN WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONT PASSES TOWARD MIDNIGHT INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD BE CLOSE FOR SOME
AREAS NEAR WHERE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY
UNTIL FRONT PASSES WITH 5 TO 8 DEGREE DROPS PER HOUR EXPECTED AFTER
FRONT PASSES FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WIND AND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SLEET AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW DUE TO STRONG CAA.

MONDAY...FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE INTERACTING WITH
FRONT TO PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. SNOW
MAY INITIALLY MELT AND FREEZE WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTING 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 AREA AND WITH STRONG WINDS...FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING FOR BLACK ICE AND LOCALIZED DRIFTING AND
POSSIBLY LOW END BLOWING OF SNOW TOWARD END TO THE EVENT IMPACTING
VISIBILITIES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 8 AM FOR ALMOST ALL THE AREA WITH
25 TO 35+ MPH WINDS AND SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAKING NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DUE TO COMBINATION OF SNOW...WIND AND CRASHING TEMPERATURES ARE REASON
FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY WEST AND 9 PM EAST
MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SNOW TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST. AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO POSSIBLY ONE HALF
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE QUIET AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE SPREAD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS QUITE
LARGE BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA.

AS SUCH...AN AREA OF SNOW IN THE WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER SNOW
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS
LOCATED.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT REGARDING
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AS
SUGGESTED BY ONE MODEL THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS.

A VERY PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE IS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TO SEE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. FOR I-80 TO HIGHWAY 20 AN INCH OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR MAY SEE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN HAS
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AREA. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT BUT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
WHERE THE DISTURBANCE WILL GO AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOWER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A LARGE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING MOSTLY
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO ALL THE TERMINALS AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL PASS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF LIFR DUE TO RAIN...DRIZZLE...FOG...LOW CEILINGS WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS BETWEEN 24/06-24/10Z
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS BY EARLY MORNING LASTING PAST 24/18Z WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SNOW AND CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 232106
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
PRODUCING LOTS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ANALYSIS TRENDS SUGGEST STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PHASE WITH THIS LOW LATE TONIGHT RESULTING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW TOTALS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR WITH OVERALL TRENDS
GOOD BUT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO SNOW AND POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SLEET
MAIN ISSUE...PLUS FOG THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WITH ISALLOBARIC GUSTS TO
40 MPH...NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...THIS EVENING...WIND TO LIGHTEN WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONT PASSES TOWARD MIDNIGHT INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY...BUT COULD BE CLOSE FOR SOME
AREAS NEAR WHERE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY
UNTIL FRONT PASSES WITH 5 TO 8 DEGREE DROPS PER HOUR EXPECTED AFTER
FRONT PASSES FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WIND AND GUSTS TO
40 MPH AND ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS MORE THAN FORECAST. THERMAL PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SLEET AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW DUE TO STRONG CAA.

MONDAY...FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE INTERACTING WITH
FRONT TO PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. SNOW
MAY INITIALLY MELT AND FREEZE WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUGGESTING 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 AREA AND WITH STRONG WINDS...FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING FOR BLACK ICE AND LOCALIZED DRIFTING AND
POSSIBLY LOW END BLOWING OF SNOW TOWARD END TO THE EVENT IMPACTING
VISIBILITIES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 8 AM FOR ALMOST ALL THE AREA WITH
25 TO 35+ MPH WINDS AND SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAKING NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DUE TO COMBINATION OF SNOW...WIND AND CRASHING TEMPERATURES ARE REASON
FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY WEST AND 9 PM EAST
MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SNOW TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST. AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO POSSIBLY ONE HALF
INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE QUIET AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE SPREAD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS QUITE
LARGE BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA.

AS SUCH...AN AREA OF SNOW IN THE WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER SNOW
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 WHERE THE BETTER FORCING IS
LOCATED.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT REGARDING
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AS
SUGGESTED BY ONE MODEL THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS.

A VERY PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE IS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TO SEE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. FOR I-80 TO HIGHWAY 20 AN INCH OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR MAY SEE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGAIN HAS
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AREA. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT BUT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
WHERE THE DISTURBANCE WILL GO AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOES AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOWER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A LARGE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING MOSTLY
IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO ALL THE TERMINALS AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL PASS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
PERIODS OF LIFR DUE TO RAIN...DRIZZLE...FOG...LOW CEILINGS WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS BETWEEN 24/06-24/10Z
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS BY EARLY MORNING LASTING PAST 24/18Z WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SNOW AND CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DUBUQUE-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SECONDARY LOW ACRS THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION. THE MAIN WARM FRONT CONNECTED TO
THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL COMPLEX ACRS THE PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LAID
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...MN...WI AND WESTERN
LOWER MI. THE DVN CWA BATHED IN FULL ON WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DPTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND AMBIENT TEMPS SIMILAR OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE LIMITING FOG PRODUCTION FOR
NOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MAIN SLUG OF UPPER WAVE ENERGY
ORGANIZING ACRS THE GRT BSN REGION IN DEEPENING L/W TROF BASE...
GETTING READY TO EJECT OUT TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TODAY...ANALYZING SEVERAL OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND EVOLVING
SITUATION UPSTREAM ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...IT APPEARS A SREF
BLEND OF INCOMING SYSTEM AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE IN ORDER WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IDEA OF ENHANCED WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR IN 40+ KT LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
EVENTUALLY DEEPENING SATURATION TO AN EXTENT THAT PWATS REACH 1
INCH OR MORE BY AFTERNOON...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEEPENING LIFT AND IDEAL INITIAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER
JET ENERGY IN AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLIES TO WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IN A FORM OF VIGOROUS OVERRUNNING RAIN OR SHOWER COMPLEX...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NOW ACRS AR INTO MO...THAT WILL BUILD UP ACRS
THE HEART OF THE DVN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEFORE MAX SATURATION
DEPTH IS ACHIEVED...THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION. EXTENT OF LIFT COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILES SUPPORTS
MUCH OF THE CWA GETTING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY LATE EVENING
WHEN THE RAIN TAPERS TO LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE...OF 0.75 TO 1.2
INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING AN INCH AND A HALF MAY
ALSO OCCUR. WITH PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND AND DORMANT VEGETATION...
THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RUN OFF
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME STANDING WATER IN DRAINAGE DITCHES AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS. SOME NUISANCE/MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WHILE RIVERS ARE LOW AND WILL ABSORB THE RUN-OFF WITH JUST IN-
BANK RISES...SOME SMALLER CREEKS MAY GET TO BANKFULL OR EVEN HIGHER
BY EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMP IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...IT
WON/T TAKE LONG TO GET TO PROJECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY EVEN WITH
PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT...ACCEPTED SREF SFC LOW TRACK ALMOST UP THE MS RVR THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE A CONVERGENT LIGHTER WIND ZONE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS WOULD BE A TEMPORARY FOG
FORMING AREA...POSSIBLY DENSE...IF THE RAINFALL TEMPORARILY LETS UP
ENOUGH OR TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE PHENOMENA. WILL KEEP THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW. AS THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO THE
LOW 980/S AND PROPAGATE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL OR SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY
MON MORNING...UPPER TROF AXIS STILL OFF TO THE WEST AND H85 TO H7 MB
LOW WILL LOOK TO ROLL RIGHT ACRS THE CWA AND PRODUCE A SECONDARY DEF
ZONE PRECIP BAND ACRS THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH
INCREASING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR IN SHARPLY VEERING LLVL WIND
PROFILES...THE RACE WILL BE ON TO COOL THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS REALLY VARY IN TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT
OF LEFT OVER PRECIP TO TURN TO SNOW BY 12Z MON. WILL AGAIN USE A SREF
BALANCE AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR NOW WHICH SUGGESTS
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA FROM 07Z-09Z...INCLUDING
CEDAR RAPIDS DOWN TO FAIRFIELD IA...AND THE MIX REACHING THE MS RVR
BY AROUND 11Z TO 12Z MON. A SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 09Z FROM
MANCHESTER IA...TO IOWA CITY...TO MOUNT PLEASANT IN SOUTHEAST IA...
TO EVEN MEMPHIS IN NORTHEAST MO WITH A HALF INCH TO POSSIBLY AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUM WEST OF THIS LINE POSSIBLE BY DAWN MON MORNING. SURGING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS MAY REALLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW BANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A
EVENTUAL NEED FOR AN WINTER WX ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MON.
MORE MONDAY DETAILS IN DISCUSSION BELOW. A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z
RUN ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z MON SOUTHWEST OF A FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON
IA LINE...IN A HANG-BACK DEF ZONE PRECIP BAND PLENTY COOLED OFF
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT THE SFC.THIS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WILL NOT JUMP ON YET...BUT AGAIN THE 12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE TO BE SCRUTINIZED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW/BLOWING SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON MONDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE NARROWED TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FAVORING A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR NW ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE 12Z-18Z WPC QPF IS SOMEWHAT
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE TRENDS TOWARD A MORE POTENT SYSTEM...AND HAVE
BLENDED WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF. HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STORM TOTALS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ARE NOW AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...1-3
INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM DUBUQUE TO
FREEPORT. THE 12KM NAM HAS SIGNALS OF AN ENHANCED SNOW
BAND...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY WITH FUTURE RUNS.

EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM A
STRONG W/NW WIND MAY VERY WELL WARRANT HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL PASS CONCERNS TO
LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE SNOWFALL PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS AND FAVORED
AREAS FROM IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY WOULD EASILY DROP
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...BUT ANY SNOW DURING
PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD NOT BE WELCOME. EXPECT A COLD AND MAINLY
DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. THE
23/00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS LATEST RUN YET.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A LARGE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING
MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO ALL THE TERMINALS
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL PASS THIS EVENING
WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR DUE TO RAIN...DRIZZLE...FOG...LOW
CEILINGS WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PASS BETWEEN 24/06-24/10Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS BY EARLY MORNING
LASTING PAST 24/18Z WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SNOW AND CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS.

&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SECONDARY LOW ACRS THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION. THE MAIN WARM FRONT CONNECTED TO
THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL COMPLEX ACRS THE PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LAID
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...MN...WI AND WESTERN
LOWER MI. THE DVN CWA BATHED IN FULL ON WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DPTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND AMBIENT TEMPS SIMILAR OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE LIMITING FOG PRODUCTION FOR
NOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MAIN SLUG OF UPPER WAVE ENERGY
ORGANIZING ACRS THE GRT BSN REGION IN DEEPENING L/W TROF BASE...
GETTING READY TO EJECT OUT TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TODAY...ANALYZING SEVERAL OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND EVOLVING
SITUATION UPSTREAM ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...IT APPEARS A SREF
BLEND OF INCOMING SYSTEM AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE IN ORDER WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IDEA OF ENHANCED WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR IN 40+ KT LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
EVENTUALLY DEEPENING SATURATION TO AN EXTENT THAT PWATS REACH 1
INCH OR MORE BY AFTERNOON...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEEPENING LIFT AND IDEAL INITIAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER
JET ENERGY IN AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLIES TO WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IN A FORM OF VIGOROUS OVERRUNNING RAIN OR SHOWER COMPLEX...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NOW ACRS AR INTO MO...THAT WILL BUILD UP ACRS
THE HEART OF THE DVN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEFORE MAX SATURATION
DEPTH IS ACHIEVED...THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION. EXTENT OF LIFT COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILES SUPPORTS
MUCH OF THE CWA GETTING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY LATE EVENING
WHEN THE RAIN TAPERS TO LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE...OF 0.75 TO 1.2
INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING AN INCH AND A HALF MAY
ALSO OCCUR. WITH PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND AND DORMANT VEGETATION...
THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RUN OFF
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME STANDING WATER IN DRAINAGE DITCHES AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS. SOME NUISANCE/MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WHILE RIVERS ARE LOW AND WILL ABSORB THE RUN-OFF WITH JUST IN-
BANK RISES...SOME SMALLER CREEKS MAY GET TO BANKFULL OR EVEN HIGHER
BY EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMP IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...IT
WON/T TAKE LONG TO GET TO PROJECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY EVEN WITH
PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT...ACCEPTED SREF SFC LOW TRACK ALMOST UP THE MS RVR THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE A CONVERGENT LIGHTER WIND ZONE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS WOULD BE A TEMPORARY FOG
FORMING AREA...POSSIBLY DENSE...IF THE RAINFALL TEMPORARILY LETS UP
ENOUGH OR TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE PHENOMENA. WILL KEEP THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW. AS THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO THE
LOW 980/S AND PROPAGATE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL OR SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY
MON MORNING...UPPER TROF AXIS STILL OFF TO THE WEST AND H85 TO H7 MB
LOW WILL LOOK TO ROLL RIGHT ACRS THE CWA AND PRODUCE A SECONDARY DEF
ZONE PRECIP BAND ACRS THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH
INCREASING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR IN SHARPLY VEERING LLVL WIND
PROFILES...THE RACE WILL BE ON TO COOL THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS REALLY VARY IN TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT
OF LEFT OVER PRECIP TO TURN TO SNOW BY 12Z MON. WILL AGAIN USE A SREF
BALANCE AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR NOW WHICH SUGGESTS
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA FROM 07Z-09Z...INCLUDING
CEDAR RAPIDS DOWN TO FAIRFIELD IA...AND THE MIX REACHING THE MS RVR
BY AROUND 11Z TO 12Z MON. A SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 09Z FROM
MANCHESTER IA...TO IOWA CITY...TO MOUNT PLEASANT IN SOUTHEAST IA...
TO EVEN MEMPHIS IN NORTHEAST MO WITH A HALF INCH TO POSSIBLY AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUM WEST OF THIS LINE POSSIBLE BY DAWN MON MORNING. SURGING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS MAY REALLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW BANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A
EVENTUAL NEED FOR AN WINTER WX ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MON.
MORE MONDAY DETAILS IN DISCUSSION BELOW. A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z
RUN ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z MON SOUTHWEST OF A FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON
IA LINE...IN A HANG-BACK DEF ZONE PRECIP BAND PLENTY COOLED OFF
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT THE SFC.THIS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WILL NOT JUMP ON YET...BUT AGAIN THE 12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE TO BE SCRUTINIZED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW/BLOWING SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON MONDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE NARROWED TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FAVORING A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR NW ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE 12Z-18Z WPC QPF IS SOMEWHAT
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE TRENDS TOWARD A MORE POTENT SYSTEM...AND HAVE
BLENDED WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF. HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STORM TOTALS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ARE NOW AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...1-3
INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM DUBUQUE TO
FREEPORT. THE 12KM NAM HAS SIGNALS OF AN ENHANCED SNOW
BAND...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY WITH FUTURE RUNS.

EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM A
STRONG W/NW WIND MAY VERY WELL WARRANT HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL PASS CONCERNS TO
LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE SNOWFALL PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS AND FAVORED
AREAS FROM IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY WOULD EASILY DROP
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...BUT ANY SNOW DURING
PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD NOT BE WELCOME. EXPECT A COLD AND MAINLY
DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. THE
23/00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS LATEST RUN YET.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A LARGE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING
MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO ALL THE TERMINALS
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL PASS THIS EVENING
WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR DUE TO RAIN...DRIZZLE...FOG...LOW
CEILINGS WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PASS BETWEEN 24/06-24/10Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS BY EARLY MORNING
LASTING PAST 24/18Z WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SNOW AND CONTINUED LOW CEILINGS.

&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231205
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
605 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SECONDARY LOW ACRS THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION. THE MAIN WARM FRONT CONNECTED TO
THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL COMPLEX ACRS THE PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LAID
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...MN...WI AND WESTERN
LOWER MI. THE DVN CWA BATHED IN FULL ON WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DPTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND AMBIENT TEMPS SIMILAR OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE LIMITING FOG PRODUCTION FOR
NOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MAIN SLUG OF UPPER WAVE ENERGY
ORGANIZING ACRS THE GRT BSN REGION IN DEEPENING L/W TROF BASE...
GETTING READY TO EJECT OUT TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TODAY...ANALYZING SEVERAL OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND EVOLVING
SITUATION UPSTREAM ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...IT APPEARS A SREF
BLEND OF INCOMING SYSTEM AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE IN ORDER WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IDEA OF ENHANCED WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR IN 40+ KT LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
EVENTUALLY DEEPENING SATURATION TO AN EXTENT THAT PWATS REACH 1
INCH OR MORE BY AFTERNOON...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEEPENING LIFT AND IDEAL INITIAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER
JET ENERGY IN AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLIES TO WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IN A FORM OF VIGOROUS OVERRUNNING RAIN OR SHOWER COMPLEX...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NOW ACRS AR INTO MO...THAT WILL BUILD UP ACRS
THE HEART OF THE DVN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEFORE MAX SATURATION
DEPTH IS ACHIEVED...THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION. EXTENT OF LIFT COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILES SUPPORTS
MUCH OF THE CWA GETTING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY LATE EVENING
WHEN THE RAIN TAPERS TO LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE...OF 0.75 TO 1.2
INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING AN INCH AND A HALF MAY
ALSO OCCUR. WITH PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND AND DORMANT VEGETATION...
THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RUN OFF
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME STANDING WATER IN DRAINAGE DITCHES AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS. SOME NUISANCE/MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WHILE RIVERS ARE LOW AND WILL ABSORB THE RUN-OFF WITH JUST IN-
BANK RISES...SOME SMALLER CREEKS MAY GET TO BANKFULL OR EVEN HIGHER
BY EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMP IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...IT
WON/T TAKE LONG TO GET TO PROJECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY EVEN WITH
PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT...ACCEPTED SREF SFC LOW TRACK ALMOST UP THE MS RVR THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE A CONVERGENT LIGHTER WIND ZONE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS WOULD BE A TEMPORARY FOG
FORMING AREA...POSSIBLY DENSE...IF THE RAINFALL TEMPORARILY LETS UP
ENOUGH OR TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE PHENOMENA. WILL KEEP THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW. AS THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO THE
LOW 980/S AND PROPAGATE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL OR SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY
MON MORNING...UPPER TROF AXIS STILL OFF TO THE WEST AND H85 TO H7 MB
LOW WILL LOOK TO ROLL RIGHT ACRS THE CWA AND PRODUCE A SECONDARY DEF
ZONE PRECIP BAND ACRS THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH
INCREASING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR IN SHARPLY VEERING LLVL WIND
PROFILES...THE RACE WILL BE ON TO COOL THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS REALLY VARY IN TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT
OF LEFT OVER PRECIP TO TURN TO SNOW BY 12Z MON. WILL AGAIN USE A SREF
BALANCE AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR NOW WHICH SUGGESTS
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA FROM 07Z-09Z...INCLUDING
CEDAR RAPIDS DOWN TO FAIRFIELD IA...AND THE MIX REACHING THE MS RVR
BY AROUND 11Z TO 12Z MON. A SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 09Z FROM
MANCHESTER IA...TO IOWA CITY...TO MOUNT PLEASANT IN SOUTHEAST IA...
TO EVEN MEMPHIS IN NORTHEAST MO WITH A HALF INCH TO POSSIBLY AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUM WEST OF THIS LINE POSSIBLE BY DAWN MON MORNING. SURGING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS MAY REALLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW BANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A
EVENTUAL NEED FOR AN WINTER WX ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MON.
MORE MONDAY DETAILS IN DISCUSSION BELOW. A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z
RUN ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z MON SOUTHWEST OF A FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON
IA LINE...IN A HANG-BACK DEF ZONE PRECIP BAND PLENTY COOLED OFF
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT THE SFC.THIS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WILL NOT JUMP ON YET...BUT AGAIN THE 12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE TO BE SCRUTINIZED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW/BLOWING SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON MONDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE NARROWED TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FAVORING A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR NW ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE 12Z-18Z WPC QPF IS SOMEWHAT
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE TRENDS TOWARD A MORE POTENT SYSTEM...AND HAVE
BLENDED WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF. HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STORM TOTALS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ARE NOW AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...1-3
INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM DUBUQUE TO
FREEPORT. THE 12KM NAM HAS SIGNALS OF AN ENHANCED SNOW
BAND...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY WITH FUTURE RUNS.

EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM A
STRONG W/NW WIND MAY VERY WELL WARRANT HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL PASS CONCERNS TO
LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE SNOWFALL PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS AND FAVORED
AREAS FROM IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY WOULD EASILY DROP
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...BUT ANY SNOW DURING
PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD NOT BE WELCOME. EXPECT A COLD AND MAINLY
DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. THE
23/00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS LATEST RUN YET.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH CURRENT LIFR
CONDITIONS AT CID AND DBQ...AND VFR AT MLI AND BRL. BUT A SOUTHERN
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACRS ALL TAF SITES TODAY FOR
WIDESPREAD ROUNDS OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS GENERALLY TODAY...AND WITH
PROFILER INDICATING 40+ KT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 2-3K FT AGL AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ADVERTISE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN MIDDAY AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT VSBYS DOWN TO 1-2SM AT TIMES ALONG WITH IFR
CIGS. THIS EVENING WHEN THE SFC LOW ROLLS NORTHWARD UP THE MS
RVR...DECREASING BUT CONVERGENT FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH LULLS IN THE RAIN MAY FOSTER SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THEN AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND SHARPLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...INCOMING COLD AIR MAY CHANGE ANY
LINGERING RAIN TO SNOW WITH CID AND DBQ THE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS CHANGE OVER. FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS MAY REALLY LIMIT VSBYS BY DAWN AT THESE SITES.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231205
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
605 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SECONDARY LOW ACRS THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION. THE MAIN WARM FRONT CONNECTED TO
THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL COMPLEX ACRS THE PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LAID
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...MN...WI AND WESTERN
LOWER MI. THE DVN CWA BATHED IN FULL ON WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DPTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND AMBIENT TEMPS SIMILAR OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE LIMITING FOG PRODUCTION FOR
NOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MAIN SLUG OF UPPER WAVE ENERGY
ORGANIZING ACRS THE GRT BSN REGION IN DEEPENING L/W TROF BASE...
GETTING READY TO EJECT OUT TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TODAY...ANALYZING SEVERAL OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND EVOLVING
SITUATION UPSTREAM ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...IT APPEARS A SREF
BLEND OF INCOMING SYSTEM AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE IN ORDER WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IDEA OF ENHANCED WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR IN 40+ KT LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
EVENTUALLY DEEPENING SATURATION TO AN EXTENT THAT PWATS REACH 1
INCH OR MORE BY AFTERNOON...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEEPENING LIFT AND IDEAL INITIAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER
JET ENERGY IN AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLIES TO WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IN A FORM OF VIGOROUS OVERRUNNING RAIN OR SHOWER COMPLEX...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NOW ACRS AR INTO MO...THAT WILL BUILD UP ACRS
THE HEART OF THE DVN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEFORE MAX SATURATION
DEPTH IS ACHIEVED...THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION. EXTENT OF LIFT COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILES SUPPORTS
MUCH OF THE CWA GETTING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY LATE EVENING
WHEN THE RAIN TAPERS TO LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE...OF 0.75 TO 1.2
INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING AN INCH AND A HALF MAY
ALSO OCCUR. WITH PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND AND DORMANT VEGETATION...
THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RUN OFF
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME STANDING WATER IN DRAINAGE DITCHES AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS. SOME NUISANCE/MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WHILE RIVERS ARE LOW AND WILL ABSORB THE RUN-OFF WITH JUST IN-
BANK RISES...SOME SMALLER CREEKS MAY GET TO BANKFULL OR EVEN HIGHER
BY EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMP IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...IT
WON/T TAKE LONG TO GET TO PROJECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY EVEN WITH
PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT...ACCEPTED SREF SFC LOW TRACK ALMOST UP THE MS RVR THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE A CONVERGENT LIGHTER WIND ZONE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS WOULD BE A TEMPORARY FOG
FORMING AREA...POSSIBLY DENSE...IF THE RAINFALL TEMPORARILY LETS UP
ENOUGH OR TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE PHENOMENA. WILL KEEP THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW. AS THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO THE
LOW 980/S AND PROPAGATE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL OR SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY
MON MORNING...UPPER TROF AXIS STILL OFF TO THE WEST AND H85 TO H7 MB
LOW WILL LOOK TO ROLL RIGHT ACRS THE CWA AND PRODUCE A SECONDARY DEF
ZONE PRECIP BAND ACRS THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH
INCREASING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR IN SHARPLY VEERING LLVL WIND
PROFILES...THE RACE WILL BE ON TO COOL THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS REALLY VARY IN TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT
OF LEFT OVER PRECIP TO TURN TO SNOW BY 12Z MON. WILL AGAIN USE A SREF
BALANCE AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR NOW WHICH SUGGESTS
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA FROM 07Z-09Z...INCLUDING
CEDAR RAPIDS DOWN TO FAIRFIELD IA...AND THE MIX REACHING THE MS RVR
BY AROUND 11Z TO 12Z MON. A SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 09Z FROM
MANCHESTER IA...TO IOWA CITY...TO MOUNT PLEASANT IN SOUTHEAST IA...
TO EVEN MEMPHIS IN NORTHEAST MO WITH A HALF INCH TO POSSIBLY AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUM WEST OF THIS LINE POSSIBLE BY DAWN MON MORNING. SURGING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS MAY REALLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW BANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A
EVENTUAL NEED FOR AN WINTER WX ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MON.
MORE MONDAY DETAILS IN DISCUSSION BELOW. A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z
RUN ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z MON SOUTHWEST OF A FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON
IA LINE...IN A HANG-BACK DEF ZONE PRECIP BAND PLENTY COOLED OFF
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT THE SFC.THIS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WILL NOT JUMP ON YET...BUT AGAIN THE 12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE TO BE SCRUTINIZED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW/BLOWING SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON MONDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE NARROWED TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FAVORING A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR NW ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE 12Z-18Z WPC QPF IS SOMEWHAT
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE TRENDS TOWARD A MORE POTENT SYSTEM...AND HAVE
BLENDED WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF. HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STORM TOTALS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ARE NOW AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...1-3
INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM DUBUQUE TO
FREEPORT. THE 12KM NAM HAS SIGNALS OF AN ENHANCED SNOW
BAND...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY WITH FUTURE RUNS.

EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM A
STRONG W/NW WIND MAY VERY WELL WARRANT HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL PASS CONCERNS TO
LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE SNOWFALL PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS AND FAVORED
AREAS FROM IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY WOULD EASILY DROP
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...BUT ANY SNOW DURING
PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD NOT BE WELCOME. EXPECT A COLD AND MAINLY
DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. THE
23/00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS LATEST RUN YET.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH CURRENT LIFR
CONDITIONS AT CID AND DBQ...AND VFR AT MLI AND BRL. BUT A SOUTHERN
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACRS ALL TAF SITES TODAY FOR
WIDESPREAD ROUNDS OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS GENERALLY TODAY...AND WITH
PROFILER INDICATING 40+ KT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 2-3K FT AGL AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ADVERTISE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN MIDDAY AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT VSBYS DOWN TO 1-2SM AT TIMES ALONG WITH IFR
CIGS. THIS EVENING WHEN THE SFC LOW ROLLS NORTHWARD UP THE MS
RVR...DECREASING BUT CONVERGENT FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH LULLS IN THE RAIN MAY FOSTER SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THEN AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND SHARPLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MS RVR
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...INCOMING COLD AIR MAY CHANGE ANY
LINGERING RAIN TO SNOW WITH CID AND DBQ THE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS CHANGE OVER. FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS MAY REALLY LIMIT VSBYS BY DAWN AT THESE SITES.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
417 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SECONDARY LOW ACRS THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION. THE MAIN WARM FRONT CONNECTED TO
THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL COMPLEX ACRS THE PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LAID
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...MN...WI AND WESTERN
LOWER MI. THE DVN CWA BATHED IN FULL ON WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DPTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND AMBIENT TEMPS SIMILAR OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE LIMITING FOG PRODUCTION FOR
NOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MAIN SLUG OF UPPER WAVE ENERGY
ORGANIZING ACRS THE GRT BSN REGION IN DEEPENING L/W TROF BASE...
GETTING READY TO EJECT OUT TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TODAY...ANALYZING SEVERAL OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND EVOLVING
SITUATION UPSTREAM ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...IT APPEARS A SREF
BLEND OF INCOMING SYSTEM AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE IN ORDER WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IDEA OF ENHANCED WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR IN 40+ KT LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
EVENTUALLY DEEPENING SATURATION TO AN EXTENT THAT PWATS REACH 1
INCH OR MORE BY AFTERNOON...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEEPENING LIFT AND IDEAL INITIAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER
JET ENERGY IN AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLIES TO WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IN A FORM OF VIGOROUS OVERRUNNING RAIN OR SHOWER COMPLEX...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NOW ACRS AR INTO MO...THAT WILL BUILD UP ACRS
THE HEART OF THE DVN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEFORE MAX SATURATION
DEPTH IS ACHIEVED...THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION. EXTENT OF LIFT COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILES SUPPORTS
MUCH OF THE CWA GETTING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY LATE EVENING
WHEN THE RAIN TAPERS TO LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE...OF 0.75 TO 1.2
INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING AN INCH AND A HALF MAY
ALSO OCCUR. WITH PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND AND DORMANT VEGETATION...
THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RUN OFF
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME STANDING WATER IN DRAINAGE DITCHES AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS. SOME NUISANCE/MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WHILE RIVERS ARE LOW AND WILL ABSORB THE RUN-OFF WITH JUST IN-
BANK RISES...SOME SMALLER CREEKS MAY GET TO BANKFULL OR EVEN HIGHER
BY EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMP IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...IT
WON/T TAKE LONG TO GET TO PROJECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY EVEN WITH
PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT...ACCEPTED SREF SFC LOW TRACK ALMOST UP THE MS RVR THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE A CONVERGENT LIGHTER WIND ZONE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS WOULD BE A TEMPORARY FOG
FORMING AREA...POSSIBLY DENSE...IF THE RAINFALL TEMPORARILY LETS UP
ENOUGH OR TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE PHENOMENA. WILL KEEP THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW. AS THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO THE
LOW 980/S AND PROPAGATE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL OR SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY
MON MORNING...UPPER TROF AXIS STILL OFF TO THE WEST AND H85 TO H7 MB
LOW WILL LOOK TO ROLL RIGHT ACRS THE CWA AND PRODUCE A SECONDARY DEF
ZONE PRECIP BAND ACRS THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH
INCREASING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR IN SHARPLY VEERING LLVL WIND
PROFILES...THE RACE WILL BE ON TO COOL THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS REALLY VARY IN TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT
OF LEFT OVER PRECIP TO TURN TO SNOW BY 12Z MON. WILL AGAIN USE A SREF
BALANCE AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR NOW WHICH SUGGESTS
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA FROM 07Z-09Z...INCLUDING
CEDAR RAPIDS DOWN TO FAIRFIELD IA...AND THE MIX REACHING THE MS RVR
BY AROUND 11Z TO 12Z MON. A SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 09Z FROM
MANCHESTER IA...TO IOWA CITY...TO MOUNT PLEASANT IN SOUTHEAST IA...
TO EVEN MEMPHIS IN NORTHEAST MO WITH A HALF INCH TO POSSIBLY AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUM WEST OF THIS LINE POSSIBLE BY DAWN MON MORNING. SURGING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS MAY REALLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW BANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A
EVENTUAL NEED FOR AN WINTER WX ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MON.
MORE MONDAY DETAILS IN DISCUSSION BELOW. A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z
RUN ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z MON SOUTHWEST OF A FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON
IA LINE...IN A HANG-BACK DEF ZONE PRECIP BAND PLENTY COOLED OFF
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT THE SFC.THIS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WILL NOT JUMP ON YET...BUT AGAIN THE 12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE TO BE SCRUTINIZED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW/BLOWING SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON MONDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE NARROWED TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FAVORING A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR NW ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE 12Z-18Z WPC QPF IS SOMEWHAT
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE TRENDS TOWARD A MORE POTENT SYSTEM...AND HAVE
BLENDED WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF. HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STORM TOTALS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ARE NOW AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...1-3
INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM DUBUQUE TO
FREEPORT. THE 12KM NAM HAS SIGNALS OF AN ENHANCED SNOW
BAND...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY WITH FUTURE RUNS.

EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM A
STRONG W/NW WIND MAY VERY WELL WARRANT HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL PASS CONCERNS TO
LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE SNOWFALL PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS AND FAVORED
AREAS FROM IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY WOULD EASILY DROP
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...BUT ANY SNOW DURING
PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD NOT BE WELCOME. EXPECT A COLD AND MAINLY
DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. THE
23/00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS LATEST RUN YET.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AND THE TRANSITION TO PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS HAS
BEEN DELAYED IN THE LATEST FORECASTS. CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO AN MVFR RANGE. AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...RAIN AND FOG WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR
FROM LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
INCREASES. A LATE EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING A
SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST OR NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...TO ALL
SNOW...JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THE CURRENT FORECASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
417 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SECONDARY LOW ACRS THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER REGION. THE MAIN WARM FRONT CONNECTED TO
THIS DEVELOPING FRONTAL COMPLEX ACRS THE PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LAID
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...MN...WI AND WESTERN
LOWER MI. THE DVN CWA BATHED IN FULL ON WARM SECTOR WITH SFC DPTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND AMBIENT TEMPS SIMILAR OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE LIMITING FOG PRODUCTION FOR
NOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MAIN SLUG OF UPPER WAVE ENERGY
ORGANIZING ACRS THE GRT BSN REGION IN DEEPENING L/W TROF BASE...
GETTING READY TO EJECT OUT TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TODAY...ANALYZING SEVERAL OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS AND EVOLVING
SITUATION UPSTREAM ACRS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...IT APPEARS A SREF
BLEND OF INCOMING SYSTEM AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE IN ORDER WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT IDEA OF ENHANCED WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR IN 40+ KT LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
EVENTUALLY DEEPENING SATURATION TO AN EXTENT THAT PWATS REACH 1
INCH OR MORE BY AFTERNOON...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. DEEPENING LIFT AND IDEAL INITIAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER
JET ENERGY IN AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLIES TO WRING OUT THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IN A FORM OF VIGOROUS OVERRUNNING RAIN OR SHOWER COMPLEX...
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NOW ACRS AR INTO MO...THAT WILL BUILD UP ACRS
THE HEART OF THE DVN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BEFORE MAX SATURATION
DEPTH IS ACHIEVED...THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION. EXTENT OF LIFT COMBINED WITH SATURATED PROFILES SUPPORTS
MUCH OF THE CWA GETTING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY LATE EVENING
WHEN THE RAIN TAPERS TO LIGHTER RAIN AND DRIZZLE...OF 0.75 TO 1.2
INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PUSHING AN INCH AND A HALF MAY
ALSO OCCUR. WITH PARTIALLY FROZEN GROUND AND DORMANT VEGETATION...
THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF RUN OFF
THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME STANDING WATER IN DRAINAGE DITCHES AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS. SOME NUISANCE/MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. WHILE RIVERS ARE LOW AND WILL ABSORB THE RUN-OFF WITH JUST IN-
BANK RISES...SOME SMALLER CREEKS MAY GET TO BANKFULL OR EVEN HIGHER
BY EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMP IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...IT
WON/T TAKE LONG TO GET TO PROJECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY EVEN WITH
PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT...ACCEPTED SREF SFC LOW TRACK ALMOST UP THE MS RVR THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE A CONVERGENT LIGHTER WIND ZONE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS WOULD BE A TEMPORARY FOG
FORMING AREA...POSSIBLY DENSE...IF THE RAINFALL TEMPORARILY LETS UP
ENOUGH OR TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE PHENOMENA. WILL KEEP THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR NOW. AS THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO THE
LOW 980/S AND PROPAGATE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN IL OR SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY
MON MORNING...UPPER TROF AXIS STILL OFF TO THE WEST AND H85 TO H7 MB
LOW WILL LOOK TO ROLL RIGHT ACRS THE CWA AND PRODUCE A SECONDARY DEF
ZONE PRECIP BAND ACRS THE CWA FROM MIDNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH
INCREASING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR IN SHARPLY VEERING LLVL WIND
PROFILES...THE RACE WILL BE ON TO COOL THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS REALLY VARY IN TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE AND AMOUNT
OF LEFT OVER PRECIP TO TURN TO SNOW BY 12Z MON. WILL AGAIN USE A SREF
BALANCE AND LOOKING AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR NOW WHICH SUGGESTS
RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA FROM 07Z-09Z...INCLUDING
CEDAR RAPIDS DOWN TO FAIRFIELD IA...AND THE MIX REACHING THE MS RVR
BY AROUND 11Z TO 12Z MON. A SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 09Z FROM
MANCHESTER IA...TO IOWA CITY...TO MOUNT PLEASANT IN SOUTHEAST IA...
TO EVEN MEMPHIS IN NORTHEAST MO WITH A HALF INCH TO POSSIBLY AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUM WEST OF THIS LINE POSSIBLE BY DAWN MON MORNING. SURGING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS MAY REALLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW BANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A
EVENTUAL NEED FOR AN WINTER WX ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MON.
MORE MONDAY DETAILS IN DISCUSSION BELOW. A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z
RUN ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY 12Z MON SOUTHWEST OF A FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON
IA LINE...IN A HANG-BACK DEF ZONE PRECIP BAND PLENTY COOLED OFF
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT THE SFC.THIS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WILL NOT JUMP ON YET...BUT AGAIN THE 12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE TO BE SCRUTINIZED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW/BLOWING SNOW EVENT MONDAY AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

ON MONDAY...SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE NARROWED TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FAVORING A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR NW ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE 12Z-18Z WPC QPF IS SOMEWHAT
UNDERDONE GIVEN THE TRENDS TOWARD A MORE POTENT SYSTEM...AND HAVE
BLENDED WITH THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF. HAVE BOOSTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STORM TOTALS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ARE NOW AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...1-3
INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM DUBUQUE TO
FREEPORT. THE 12KM NAM HAS SIGNALS OF AN ENHANCED SNOW
BAND...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY WITH FUTURE RUNS.

EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM A
STRONG W/NW WIND MAY VERY WELL WARRANT HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WILL PASS CONCERNS TO
LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE SNOWFALL PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS AND FAVORED
AREAS FROM IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL INTENSITY WOULD EASILY DROP
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...BUT ANY SNOW DURING
PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL WOULD NOT BE WELCOME. EXPECT A COLD AND MAINLY
DRY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. THE
23/00Z ECMWF IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS LATEST RUN YET.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AND THE TRANSITION TO PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS HAS
BEEN DELAYED IN THE LATEST FORECASTS. CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO AN MVFR RANGE. AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...RAIN AND FOG WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR
FROM LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
INCREASES. A LATE EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING A
SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST OR NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...TO ALL
SNOW...JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THE CURRENT FORECASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 230536
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY FROM
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS HAS SO FAR CONFINED LIGHT FOG TO AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. AREA RADARS AND SURFACE REPORTS HAVE
PRECIPITATION TIED MORE CLOSELY TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER TX...REACHING E-NE ACROSS OK...SOUTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION ON KDVN RADAR WAS A SMALL SHOWER OVER
THE BLOOMINGTON IL AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING
AND DOWNPLAY THE FOG AS THE STEADY SOUTH WIND IS KEEPING LOW
LEVELS MIXED WITH A LACK OF CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS SATURATION.
BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL LIFT IS STILL PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED AN UPGLIDE FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES THIS EVENING TO LIKELY POPS TOWARD MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE DRIZZLE VS RAIN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO...FOG TRENDS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST PATCHY WORDING IN ALL AREAS. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND THEN THE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT AND CONVERGENT OVER THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING
DEFORMATION AXIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN TEXAS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS VERIFYING
AT LEAST AS STRONG AND AS MOIST AS SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PAST 24 PLUS HOURS
THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEXAS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN ISSUES INCREASE IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER BIGGEST QUESTION. WIDESPREAD
.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OR RAIN TO FALL OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED.
SOME RISK OF TRAINING OF RAIN ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1.5 INCHES.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVEN LIKELY MORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING
FROZEN GROUND TO MELT AS HAS HAPPENED PAST 24 HOURS REDUCING ANY WATER
ISSUES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO AID IN ANY REMAINING
MELTING OF FROZEN GROUND.

SUNDAY...LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND
NOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. RISK OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST .4 UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS MOST AREAS TO FALL OVER
3 TO 6 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...MAINLY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD
LIMIT ANY WATER ISSUES. THE REMAINING .1 TO .25 INCHES TO FALL OVER ANOTHER
1-3 HOUR WINDOW EARLIER IN MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIFT
(LIGHTNING PROBABILITY) TOOL SUGGEST MID DAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO SNOW EVENTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH FOG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL THIRD AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD STILL BE ALL RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT SUNRISE MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 35 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAY BE 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 BY SUNSET MONDAY. HIGHWAY 30 DOWN TO A GALESBURG TO
OTTUMWA LINE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. SOUTH OF A
GALESBURG TO OTTUMWA LINE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD BE A DUSTING
AT MOST.

ON TUESDAY...DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TIMING ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CRITICAL BUT CURRENT
INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA. STORM
TRACK...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT APPEARS THAT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AND THE TRANSITION TO PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS HAS
BEEN DELAYED IN THE LATEST FORECASTS. CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO AN MVFR RANGE. AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...RAIN AND FOG WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR
FROM LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
INCREASES. A LATE EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING A
SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST OR NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...TO ALL
SNOW...JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THE CURRENT FORECASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230536
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY FROM
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS HAS SO FAR CONFINED LIGHT FOG TO AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. AREA RADARS AND SURFACE REPORTS HAVE
PRECIPITATION TIED MORE CLOSELY TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER TX...REACHING E-NE ACROSS OK...SOUTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION ON KDVN RADAR WAS A SMALL SHOWER OVER
THE BLOOMINGTON IL AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING
AND DOWNPLAY THE FOG AS THE STEADY SOUTH WIND IS KEEPING LOW
LEVELS MIXED WITH A LACK OF CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS SATURATION.
BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL LIFT IS STILL PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED AN UPGLIDE FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES THIS EVENING TO LIKELY POPS TOWARD MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE DRIZZLE VS RAIN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO...FOG TRENDS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST PATCHY WORDING IN ALL AREAS. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND THEN THE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT AND CONVERGENT OVER THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING
DEFORMATION AXIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN TEXAS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS VERIFYING
AT LEAST AS STRONG AND AS MOIST AS SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PAST 24 PLUS HOURS
THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEXAS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN ISSUES INCREASE IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER BIGGEST QUESTION. WIDESPREAD
.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OR RAIN TO FALL OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED.
SOME RISK OF TRAINING OF RAIN ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1.5 INCHES.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVEN LIKELY MORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING
FROZEN GROUND TO MELT AS HAS HAPPENED PAST 24 HOURS REDUCING ANY WATER
ISSUES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO AID IN ANY REMAINING
MELTING OF FROZEN GROUND.

SUNDAY...LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND
NOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. RISK OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST .4 UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS MOST AREAS TO FALL OVER
3 TO 6 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...MAINLY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD
LIMIT ANY WATER ISSUES. THE REMAINING .1 TO .25 INCHES TO FALL OVER ANOTHER
1-3 HOUR WINDOW EARLIER IN MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIFT
(LIGHTNING PROBABILITY) TOOL SUGGEST MID DAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO SNOW EVENTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH FOG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL THIRD AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD STILL BE ALL RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT SUNRISE MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 35 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAY BE 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 BY SUNSET MONDAY. HIGHWAY 30 DOWN TO A GALESBURG TO
OTTUMWA LINE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. SOUTH OF A
GALESBURG TO OTTUMWA LINE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD BE A DUSTING
AT MOST.

ON TUESDAY...DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TIMING ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CRITICAL BUT CURRENT
INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA. STORM
TRACK...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT APPEARS THAT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY AND THE TRANSITION TO PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS HAS
BEEN DELAYED IN THE LATEST FORECASTS. CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME IFR
BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO AN MVFR RANGE. AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...RAIN AND FOG WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR
FROM LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
INCREASES. A LATE EVENING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BRING A
SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST OR NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...TO ALL
SNOW...JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THE CURRENT FORECASTS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 230055
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY FROM
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS HAS SO FAR CONFINED LIGHT FOG TO AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. AREA RADARS AND SURFACE REPORTS HAVE
PRECIPITATION TIED MORE CLOSELY TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER TX...REACHING E-NE ACROSS OK...SOUTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION ON KDVN RADAR WAS A SMALL SHOWER OVER
THE BLOOMINGTON IL AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING
AND DOWNPLAY THE FOG AS THE STEADY SOUTH WIND IS KEEPING LOW
LEVELS MIXED WITH A LACK OF CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS SATURATION.
BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL LIFT IS STILL PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED AN UPGLIDE FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES THIS EVENING TO LIKELY POPS TOWARD MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE DRIZZLE VS RAIN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO...FOG TRENDS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST PATCHY WORDING IN ALL AREAS. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND THEN THE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT AND CONVERGENT OVER THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING
DEFORMATION AXIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN TEXAS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS VERIFYING
AT LEAST AS STRONG AND AS MOIST AS SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PAST 24 PLUS HOURS
THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEXAS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN ISSUES INCREASE IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER BIGGEST QUESTION. WIDESPREAD
.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OR RAIN TO FALL OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED.
SOME RISK OF TRAINING OF RAIN ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1.5 INCHES.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVEN LIKELY MORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING
FROZEN GROUND TO MELT AS HAS HAPPENED PAST 24 HOURS REDUCING ANY WATER
ISSUES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO AID IN ANY REMAINING
MELTING OF FROZEN GROUND.

SUNDAY...LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND
NOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. RISK OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST .4 UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS MOST AREAS TO FALL OVER
3 TO 6 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...MAINLY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD
LIMIT ANY WATER ISSUES. THE REMAINING .1 TO .25 INCHES TO FALL OVER ANOTHER
1-3 HOUR WINDOW EARLIER IN MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIFT
(LIGHTNING PROBABILITY) TOOL SUGGEST MID DAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO SNOW EVENTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH FOG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL THIRD AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD STILL BE ALL RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT SUNRISE MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 35 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAY BE 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 BY SUNSET MONDAY. HIGHWAY 30 DOWN TO A GALESBURG TO
OTTUMWA LINE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. SOUTH OF A
GALESBURG TO OTTUMWA LINE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD BE A DUSTING
AT MOST.

ON TUESDAY...DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TIMING ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CRITICAL BUT CURRENT
INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA. STORM
TRACK...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT APPEARS THAT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
THICKENING FOG OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...
DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW IFR AT
ALL SITES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO BOTH CIG AND VISBY
RESTRICTIONS. LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DENSE FOG
TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CID AND DBQ. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO
CIGS...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT DENSE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230055
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING WERE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY FROM
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS HAS SO FAR CONFINED LIGHT FOG TO AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. AREA RADARS AND SURFACE REPORTS HAVE
PRECIPITATION TIED MORE CLOSELY TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER TX...REACHING E-NE ACROSS OK...SOUTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION ON KDVN RADAR WAS A SMALL SHOWER OVER
THE BLOOMINGTON IL AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING
AND DOWNPLAY THE FOG AS THE STEADY SOUTH WIND IS KEEPING LOW
LEVELS MIXED WITH A LACK OF CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS SATURATION.
BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL LIFT IS STILL PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED AN UPGLIDE FROM
SLIGHT CHANCES THIS EVENING TO LIKELY POPS TOWARD MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE DRIZZLE VS RAIN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO...FOG TRENDS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST PATCHY WORDING IN ALL AREAS. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AND THEN THE FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT AND CONVERGENT OVER THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING
DEFORMATION AXIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN TEXAS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS VERIFYING
AT LEAST AS STRONG AND AS MOIST AS SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PAST 24 PLUS HOURS
THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEXAS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN ISSUES INCREASE IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER BIGGEST QUESTION. WIDESPREAD
.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OR RAIN TO FALL OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED.
SOME RISK OF TRAINING OF RAIN ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1.5 INCHES.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVEN LIKELY MORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING
FROZEN GROUND TO MELT AS HAS HAPPENED PAST 24 HOURS REDUCING ANY WATER
ISSUES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO AID IN ANY REMAINING
MELTING OF FROZEN GROUND.

SUNDAY...LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND
NOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. RISK OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST .4 UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS MOST AREAS TO FALL OVER
3 TO 6 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...MAINLY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD
LIMIT ANY WATER ISSUES. THE REMAINING .1 TO .25 INCHES TO FALL OVER ANOTHER
1-3 HOUR WINDOW EARLIER IN MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIFT
(LIGHTNING PROBABILITY) TOOL SUGGEST MID DAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO SNOW EVENTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH FOG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL THIRD AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD STILL BE ALL RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT SUNRISE MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 35 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAY BE 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 BY SUNSET MONDAY. HIGHWAY 30 DOWN TO A GALESBURG TO
OTTUMWA LINE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. SOUTH OF A
GALESBURG TO OTTUMWA LINE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD BE A DUSTING
AT MOST.

ON TUESDAY...DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TIMING ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CRITICAL BUT CURRENT
INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA. STORM
TRACK...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT APPEARS THAT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
THICKENING FOG OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...
DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW IFR AT
ALL SITES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO BOTH CIG AND VISBY
RESTRICTIONS. LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DENSE FOG
TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CID AND DBQ. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO
CIGS...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT DENSE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 222341
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
541 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN TEXAS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS VERIFYING
AT LEAST AS STRONG AND AS MOIST AS SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PAST 24 PLUS HOURS
THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEXAS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN ISSUES INCREASE IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER BIGGEST QUESTION. WIDESPREAD
.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OR RAIN TO FALL OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED.
SOME RISK OF TRAINING OF RAIN ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1.5 INCHES.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVEN LIKELY MORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING
FROZEN GROUND TO MELT AS HAS HAPPENED PAST 24 HOURS REDUCING ANY WATER
ISSUES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO AID IN ANY REMAINING
MELTING OF FROZEN GROUND.

SUNDAY...LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND
NOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. RISK OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST .4 UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS MOST AREAS TO FALL OVER
3 TO 6 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...MAINLY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD
LIMIT ANY WATER ISSUES. THE REMAINING .1 TO .25 INCHES TO FALL OVER ANOTHER
1-3 HOUR WINDOW EARLIER IN MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIFT
(LIGHTNING PROBABILITY) TOOL SUGGEST MID DAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO SNOW EVENTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH FOG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL THIRD AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD STILL BE ALL RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT SUNRISE MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 35 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAY BE 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 BY SUNSET MONDAY. HIGHWAY 30 DOWN TO A GALESBURG TO
OTTUMWA LINE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. SOUTH OF A
GALESBURG TO OTTUMWA LINE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD BE A DUSTING
AT MOST.

ON TUESDAY...DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TIMING ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CRITICAL BUT CURRENT
INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA. STORM
TRACK...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT APPEARS THAT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
THICKENING FOG OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...
DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW IFR AT
ALL SITES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO BOTH CIG AND VISBY
RESTRICTIONS. LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DENSE FOG
TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CID AND DBQ. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO
CIGS...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT DENSE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 222341
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
541 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN TEXAS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS VERIFYING
AT LEAST AS STRONG AND AS MOIST AS SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PAST 24 PLUS HOURS
THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEXAS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN ISSUES INCREASE IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER BIGGEST QUESTION. WIDESPREAD
.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OR RAIN TO FALL OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED.
SOME RISK OF TRAINING OF RAIN ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1.5 INCHES.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVEN LIKELY MORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING
FROZEN GROUND TO MELT AS HAS HAPPENED PAST 24 HOURS REDUCING ANY WATER
ISSUES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO AID IN ANY REMAINING
MELTING OF FROZEN GROUND.

SUNDAY...LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND
NOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. RISK OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST .4 UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS MOST AREAS TO FALL OVER
3 TO 6 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...MAINLY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD
LIMIT ANY WATER ISSUES. THE REMAINING .1 TO .25 INCHES TO FALL OVER ANOTHER
1-3 HOUR WINDOW EARLIER IN MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIFT
(LIGHTNING PROBABILITY) TOOL SUGGEST MID DAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO SNOW EVENTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH FOG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL THIRD AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD STILL BE ALL RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT SUNRISE MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 35 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAY BE 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 BY SUNSET MONDAY. HIGHWAY 30 DOWN TO A GALESBURG TO
OTTUMWA LINE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. SOUTH OF A
GALESBURG TO OTTUMWA LINE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD BE A DUSTING
AT MOST.

ON TUESDAY...DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TIMING ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CRITICAL BUT CURRENT
INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA. STORM
TRACK...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT APPEARS THAT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
THICKENING FOG OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...
DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW IFR AT
ALL SITES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO BOTH CIG AND VISBY
RESTRICTIONS. LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DENSE FOG
TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT CID AND DBQ. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO
CIGS...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT DENSE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 222059
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN TEXAS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS VERIFYING
AT LEAST AS STRONG AND AS MOIST AS SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOWER END HEAVY RAIN EVENT SUNDAY. MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
UPPER MIDWEST PRODUCING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PAST 24 PLUS HOURS
THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEXAS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE OR FAIR TO
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MAIN ISSUES INCREASE IN FOG...DRIZZLE AND RAIN
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER BIGGEST QUESTION. WIDESPREAD
.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OR RAIN TO FALL OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD EXPECTED.
SOME RISK OF TRAINING OF RAIN ANY CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER 1.5 INCHES.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THAT COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVEN LIKELY MORE TOWARD MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING
FROZEN GROUND TO MELT AS HAS HAPPENED PAST 24 HOURS REDUCING ANY WATER
ISSUES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL ALSO AID IN ANY REMAINING
MELTING OF FROZEN GROUND.

SUNDAY...LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND
NOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. RISK OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE RECONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. LOCAL TOOLS
SUGGEST HEAVIEST .4 UP TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS MOST AREAS TO FALL OVER
3 TO 6 PLUS HOUR PERIOD...MAINLY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD
LIMIT ANY WATER ISSUES. THE REMAINING .1 TO .25 INCHES TO FALL OVER ANOTHER
1-3 HOUR WINDOW EARLIER IN MORNING...POSSIBLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIFT
(LIGHTNING PROBABILITY) TOOL SUGGEST MID DAY EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO SNOW EVENTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
WITH FOG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SLOWLY CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL THIRD AND THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD STILL BE ALL RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT SUNRISE MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 35 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY MAY BE 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 BY SUNSET MONDAY. HIGHWAY 30 DOWN TO A GALESBURG TO
OTTUMWA LINE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. SOUTH OF A
GALESBURG TO OTTUMWA LINE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD BE A DUSTING
AT MOST.

ON TUESDAY...DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TIMING ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CRITICAL BUT CURRENT
INFORMATION SUGGESTS A SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA. STORM
TRACK...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT REGARDING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT IT APPEARS THAT
SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN
THE FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOSTLY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DBQ TERMINAL TO REDEVELOP BY
MID TO LATE EVENING AND LAST NEXT 24 HOURS IN FOG...VERY LOW CLOUDS
AND DRIZZLE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AT CID TERMINAL...MOSTLY
MVFR BECOMING IFR/LIFR BY MID EVENING TONIGHT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AFTER 23/05Z. AT MLI/BRL TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE EVENING TO BECOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER
OUR COLD GROUND WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS
AFTER 23/18Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 221750
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...WITH PAVEMENT SENSORS ABOVE FREEZING AND A FEW GROUND
REPORTS...HAVE CHOPPED AWAY AT THE REMAINING FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE
FROM THE SOUTH FOR NOW. SEEMS WITH PASSING VORT NOW OVER EASTERN
IA...ORGANIZED SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN ARE MAKING HEADWAY TO THE EAST
OUT OF THE DVN CWA BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY ACRS THE NORTH FOR
LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND ESPECIALLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANOTHER VORT LOBE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NEB WILL
MAKE IT TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH TOP-DOWN DRYING TO AROUND H85 MB OR LESS THAT ANY
PRECIP MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MIXING SOUTH WINDS AND DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD
PREVENT DENSE FOG. THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESSING THROUGH..THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIP WITH CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION. WILL TREND TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED COLD GROUND WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH...TO 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THESE FACTORS...THE AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED UP
ACRS THE REGION IN BRISK 35-45 KT LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN SOME AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF ORGANIZES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND LLVL CYCLOGENESIS BLOSSOMS ACRS THE PLAINS...ENHANCED
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL STILL LOOK TO STREAM UP THE MS RVR VALLEY.
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LOOK TO DEEPEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWERS AND JUST
SOME DRIZZLE...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS FOR SOME ACTIVITY
ALONG AN APPROACHING CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALOFT. THE
FIRST SURGE OF DEEPER LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH ARCHING
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROF SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I80...AGAIN MAY BE JUST DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF I80 THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AS FOR ADVECTION FOG...WITH
MIXING SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND SOME TEMP MODERATION
OF THE SFC LAYER...WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS HOWEVER AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. LOW TEMPS NOT
THAT FAR OFF WHAT OCCURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WARMING SOUTH BREEZED MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SEVERAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EVENTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLE TO CLIMATE
COMPARISONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM AS UNSEASONABLY
POTENT...IN PARTICULAR THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHICH IS 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CONSENSUS QPF SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AND INCREASING TO THE EAST. WITH THE FROZEN
GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED. WITH THE CURRENT LOW STAGES
ON AREA TRIBS...ANY RISES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN-BANK.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED PONDING AND RAIN-FILLED DITCHES MAY BE AN ISSUE.

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST FROM INDEPENDENCE TO MONTICELLO AND
DUBUQUE.

LINGERING MOISTURE TRAILING THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL FUEL
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH A WESTERLY WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...PERHAPS
HIGHER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 35-35 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE 22/00Z
SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A QUICK SHOT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SURFACE
LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM GENERATE TRAILING IMPULSES THAT PUSH THE
SNOW THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THANKSGIVING DAY. HAVE
KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOSTLY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DBQ TERMINAL NEXT 24 HOURS
IN FOG...VERY LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
AT CID TERMINAL...MOSTLY MVFR BECOMING IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 22/23Z. AT MLI/BRL TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER
OUR COLD GROUND WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS AFTER
23/18Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 221750
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...WITH PAVEMENT SENSORS ABOVE FREEZING AND A FEW GROUND
REPORTS...HAVE CHOPPED AWAY AT THE REMAINING FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE
FROM THE SOUTH FOR NOW. SEEMS WITH PASSING VORT NOW OVER EASTERN
IA...ORGANIZED SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN ARE MAKING HEADWAY TO THE EAST
OUT OF THE DVN CWA BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY ACRS THE NORTH FOR
LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND ESPECIALLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANOTHER VORT LOBE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NEB WILL
MAKE IT TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH TOP-DOWN DRYING TO AROUND H85 MB OR LESS THAT ANY
PRECIP MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MIXING SOUTH WINDS AND DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD
PREVENT DENSE FOG. THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESSING THROUGH..THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIP WITH CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION. WILL TREND TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED COLD GROUND WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH...TO 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THESE FACTORS...THE AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED UP
ACRS THE REGION IN BRISK 35-45 KT LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN SOME AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF ORGANIZES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND LLVL CYCLOGENESIS BLOSSOMS ACRS THE PLAINS...ENHANCED
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL STILL LOOK TO STREAM UP THE MS RVR VALLEY.
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LOOK TO DEEPEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWERS AND JUST
SOME DRIZZLE...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS FOR SOME ACTIVITY
ALONG AN APPROACHING CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALOFT. THE
FIRST SURGE OF DEEPER LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH ARCHING
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROF SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I80...AGAIN MAY BE JUST DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF I80 THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AS FOR ADVECTION FOG...WITH
MIXING SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND SOME TEMP MODERATION
OF THE SFC LAYER...WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS HOWEVER AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. LOW TEMPS NOT
THAT FAR OFF WHAT OCCURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WARMING SOUTH BREEZED MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SEVERAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EVENTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLE TO CLIMATE
COMPARISONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM AS UNSEASONABLY
POTENT...IN PARTICULAR THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHICH IS 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CONSENSUS QPF SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AND INCREASING TO THE EAST. WITH THE FROZEN
GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED. WITH THE CURRENT LOW STAGES
ON AREA TRIBS...ANY RISES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN-BANK.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED PONDING AND RAIN-FILLED DITCHES MAY BE AN ISSUE.

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST FROM INDEPENDENCE TO MONTICELLO AND
DUBUQUE.

LINGERING MOISTURE TRAILING THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL FUEL
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH A WESTERLY WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...PERHAPS
HIGHER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 35-35 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE 22/00Z
SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A QUICK SHOT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SURFACE
LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM GENERATE TRAILING IMPULSES THAT PUSH THE
SNOW THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THANKSGIVING DAY. HAVE
KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOSTLY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT DBQ TERMINAL NEXT 24 HOURS
IN FOG...VERY LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
AT CID TERMINAL...MOSTLY MVFR BECOMING IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER 22/23Z. AT MLI/BRL TERMINALS...MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER
OUR COLD GROUND WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS AFTER
23/18Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 221152
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
552 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...WITH PAVEMENT SENSORS ABOVE FREEZING AND A FEW GROUND
REPORTS...HAVE CHOPPED AWAY AT THE REMAINING FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE
FROM THE SOUTH FOR NOW. SEEMS WITH PASSING VORT NOW OVER EASTERN
IA...ORGANIZED SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN ARE MAKING HEADWAY TO THE EAST
OUT OF THE DVN CWA BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY ACRS THE NORTH FOR
LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND ESPECIALLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANOTHER VORT LOBE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NEB WILL
MAKE IT TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH TOP-DOWN DRYING TO AROUND H85 MB OR LESS THAT ANY
PRECIP MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MIXING SOUTH WINDS AND DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD
PREVENT DENSE FOG. THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESSING THROUGH..THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIP WITH CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION. WILL TREND TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED COLD GROUND WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH...TO 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THESE FACTORS...THE AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED UP
ACRS THE REGION IN BRISK 35-45 KT LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN SOME AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF ORGANIZES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND LLVL CYCLOGENESIS BLOSSOMS ACRS THE PLAINS...ENHANCED
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL STILL LOOK TO STREAM UP THE MS RVR VALLEY.
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LOOK TO DEEPEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWERS AND JUST
SOME DRIZZLE...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS FOR SOME ACTIVITY
ALONG AN APPROACHING CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALOFT. THE
FIRST SURGE OF DEEPER LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH ARCHING
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROF SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I80...AGAIN MAY BE JUST DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF I80 THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AS FOR ADVECTION FOG...WITH
MIXING SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND SOME TEMP MODERATION
OF THE SFC LAYER...WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS HOWEVER AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. LOW TEMPS NOT
THAT FAR OFF WHAT OCCURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WARMING SOUTH BREEZED MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SEVERAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EVENTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLE TO CLIMATE
COMPARISONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM AS UNSEASONABLY
POTENT...IN PARTICULAR THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHICH IS 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CONSENSUS QPF SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AND INCREASING TO THE EAST. WITH THE FROZEN
GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED. WITH THE CURRENT LOW STAGES
ON AREA TRIBS...ANY RISES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN-BANK.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED PONDING AND RAIN-FILLED DITCHES MAY BE AN ISSUE.

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST FROM INDEPENDENCE TO MONTICELLO AND
DUBUQUE.

LINGERING MOISTURE TRAILING THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL FUEL
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH A WESTERLY WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...PERHAPS
HIGHER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 35-35 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE 22/00Z
SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A QUICK SHOT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SURFACE
LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM GENERATE TRAILING IMPULSES THAT PUSH THE
SNOW THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THANKSGIVING DAY. HAVE
KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT MOST TAF SITES
WITH LOW CIGS...FOG AND LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST LOW MVFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
DECREASE IN LIGHT PRECIP...BUT DBQ MAY STAY AT IFR CIGS ALL DAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS TODAY...ONGOING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 40+ KT FLOW 2K FT AGL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DESPITE SOUTH
WINDS MAINTAINING AT 10-15 KTS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR OR EVEN
LIFR CATEGORY BECAUSE OF FOG. INCREASING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY ACTUALLY HELP IMPROVE SOME
VSBYS...BUT WILL STILL PLAY THE OVERNIGHT PESSIMISTIC WITH LLVL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-
     JONES-LINN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 221152
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
552 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...WITH PAVEMENT SENSORS ABOVE FREEZING AND A FEW GROUND
REPORTS...HAVE CHOPPED AWAY AT THE REMAINING FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE
FROM THE SOUTH FOR NOW. SEEMS WITH PASSING VORT NOW OVER EASTERN
IA...ORGANIZED SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN ARE MAKING HEADWAY TO THE EAST
OUT OF THE DVN CWA BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY ACRS THE NORTH FOR
LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND ESPECIALLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANOTHER VORT LOBE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NEB WILL
MAKE IT TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH TOP-DOWN DRYING TO AROUND H85 MB OR LESS THAT ANY
PRECIP MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MIXING SOUTH WINDS AND DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD
PREVENT DENSE FOG. THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESSING THROUGH..THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIP WITH CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION. WILL TREND TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED COLD GROUND WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH...TO 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THESE FACTORS...THE AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED UP
ACRS THE REGION IN BRISK 35-45 KT LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN SOME AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF ORGANIZES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND LLVL CYCLOGENESIS BLOSSOMS ACRS THE PLAINS...ENHANCED
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL STILL LOOK TO STREAM UP THE MS RVR VALLEY.
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LOOK TO DEEPEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWERS AND JUST
SOME DRIZZLE...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS FOR SOME ACTIVITY
ALONG AN APPROACHING CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALOFT. THE
FIRST SURGE OF DEEPER LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH ARCHING
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROF SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I80...AGAIN MAY BE JUST DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF I80 THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AS FOR ADVECTION FOG...WITH
MIXING SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND SOME TEMP MODERATION
OF THE SFC LAYER...WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS HOWEVER AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. LOW TEMPS NOT
THAT FAR OFF WHAT OCCURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WARMING SOUTH BREEZED MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SEVERAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EVENTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLE TO CLIMATE
COMPARISONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM AS UNSEASONABLY
POTENT...IN PARTICULAR THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHICH IS 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CONSENSUS QPF SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AND INCREASING TO THE EAST. WITH THE FROZEN
GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED. WITH THE CURRENT LOW STAGES
ON AREA TRIBS...ANY RISES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN-BANK.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED PONDING AND RAIN-FILLED DITCHES MAY BE AN ISSUE.

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST FROM INDEPENDENCE TO MONTICELLO AND
DUBUQUE.

LINGERING MOISTURE TRAILING THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL FUEL
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH A WESTERLY WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...PERHAPS
HIGHER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 35-35 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE 22/00Z
SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A QUICK SHOT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SURFACE
LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM GENERATE TRAILING IMPULSES THAT PUSH THE
SNOW THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THANKSGIVING DAY. HAVE
KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT MOST TAF SITES
WITH LOW CIGS...FOG AND LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST LOW MVFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
DECREASE IN LIGHT PRECIP...BUT DBQ MAY STAY AT IFR CIGS ALL DAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS TODAY...ONGOING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 40+ KT FLOW 2K FT AGL THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DESPITE SOUTH
WINDS MAINTAINING AT 10-15 KTS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR OR EVEN
LIFR CATEGORY BECAUSE OF FOG. INCREASING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY ACTUALLY HELP IMPROVE SOME
VSBYS...BUT WILL STILL PLAY THE OVERNIGHT PESSIMISTIC WITH LLVL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-
     JONES-LINN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220944
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...WITH PAVEMENT SENSORS ABOVE FREEZING AND A FEW GROUND
REPORTS...HAVE CHOPPED AWAY AT THE REMAINING FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE
FROM THE SOUTH FOR NOW. SEEMS WITH PASSING VORT NOW OVER EASTERN
IA...ORGANIZED SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN ARE MAKING HEADWAY TO THE EAST
OUT OF THE DVN CWA BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY ACRS THE NORTH FOR
LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND ESPECIALLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANOTHER VORT LOBE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NEB WILL
MAKE IT TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH TOP-DOWN DRYING TO AROUND H85 MB OR LESS THAT ANY
PRECIP MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MIXING SOUTH WINDS AND DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD
PREVENT DENSE FOG. THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESSING THROUGH..THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIP WITH CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION. WILL TREND TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED COLD GROUND WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH...TO 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THESE FACTORS...THE AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED UP
ACRS THE REGION IN BRISK 35-45 KT LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN SOME AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF ORGANIZES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND LLVL CYCLOGENESIS BLOSSOMS ACRS THE PLAINS...ENHANCED
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL STILL LOOK TO STREAM UP THE MS RVR VALLEY.
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LOOK TO DEEPEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWERS AND JUST
SOME DRIZZLE...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS FOR SOME ACTIVITY
ALONG AN APPROACHING CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALOFT. THE
FIRST SURGE OF DEEPER LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH ARCHING
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROF SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I80...AGAIN MAY BE JUST DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF I80 THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AS FOR ADVECTION FOG...WITH
MIXING SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND SOME TEMP MODERATION
OF THE SFC LAYER...WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS HOWEVER AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. LOW TEMPS NOT
THAT FAR OFF WHAT OCCURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WARMING SOUTH BREEZED MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SEVERAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EVENTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLE TO CLIMATE
COMPARISONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM AS UNSEASONABLY
POTENT...IN PARTICULAR THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHICH IS 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CONSENSUS QPF SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AND INCREASING TO THE EAST. WITH THE FROZEN
GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED. WITH THE CURRENT LOW STAGES
ON AREA TRIBS...ANY RISES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN-BANK.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED PONDING AND RAIN-FILLED DITCHES MAY BE AN ISSUE.

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST FROM INDEPENDENCE TO MONTICELLO AND
DUBUQUE.

LINGERING MOISTURE TRAILING THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL FUEL
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH A WESTERLY WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...PERHAPS
HIGHER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 35-35 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE 22/00Z
SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A QUICK SHOT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SURFACE
LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM GENERATE TRAILING IMPULSES THAT PUSH THE
SNOW THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THANKSGIVING DAY. HAVE
KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION.
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING SUPPORT RISK OF VERY LIGHT ICING AT KCID AND
KDBQ BEFORE SFC/GROUND TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. MID
LEVEL DRYING AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER STILL COLD
GROUND MAY FOSTER DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO... ADDED MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASE IN WINDS TO 40-45 KTS FROM S/SW AROUND
2000FT AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-
     JONES-LINN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220944
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY...WITH PAVEMENT SENSORS ABOVE FREEZING AND A FEW GROUND
REPORTS...HAVE CHOPPED AWAY AT THE REMAINING FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE
FROM THE SOUTH FOR NOW. SEEMS WITH PASSING VORT NOW OVER EASTERN
IA...ORGANIZED SHOWERS/AREAS OF RAIN ARE MAKING HEADWAY TO THE EAST
OUT OF THE DVN CWA BUT WILL KEEP ADVISORY ACRS THE NORTH FOR
LINGERING PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND ESPECIALLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANOTHER VORT LOBE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS NEB WILL
MAKE IT TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ENOUGH TOP-DOWN DRYING TO AROUND H85 MB OR LESS THAT ANY
PRECIP MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MIXING SOUTH WINDS AND DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD
PREVENT DENSE FOG. THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PRESSING THROUGH..THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIP WITH CONTINUED SHALLOW LAYER OF SATURATION. WILL TREND TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND JUST PATCHY DRIZZLE. CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED COLD GROUND WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH...TO 50 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON.
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THESE FACTORS...THE AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED UP
ACRS THE REGION IN BRISK 35-45 KT LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN SOME AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM L/W TROF ORGANIZES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND LLVL CYCLOGENESIS BLOSSOMS ACRS THE PLAINS...ENHANCED
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL STILL LOOK TO STREAM UP THE MS RVR VALLEY.
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL LOOK TO DEEPEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...AGAIN
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED RAIN/SHOWERS AND JUST
SOME DRIZZLE...BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS FOR SOME ACTIVITY
ALONG AN APPROACHING CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALOFT. THE
FIRST SURGE OF DEEPER LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH ARCHING
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROF SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I80...AGAIN MAY BE JUST DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF I80 THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. AS FOR ADVECTION FOG...WITH
MIXING SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15+ MPH OVERNIGHT AND SOME TEMP MODERATION
OF THE SFC LAYER...WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE POTENTIAL. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS HOWEVER AND CANNOT RULE OUT A NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. LOW TEMPS NOT
THAT FAR OFF WHAT OCCURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WARMING SOUTH BREEZED MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SEVERAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER EVENTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL ON
TRACK...WITH LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLE TO CLIMATE
COMPARISONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM SYSTEM AS UNSEASONABLY
POTENT...IN PARTICULAR THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AN INCH OR HIGHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHICH IS 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CONSENSUS QPF SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AND INCREASING TO THE EAST. WITH THE FROZEN
GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED. WITH THE CURRENT LOW STAGES
ON AREA TRIBS...ANY RISES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN-BANK.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED PONDING AND RAIN-FILLED DITCHES MAY BE AN ISSUE.

COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST FROM INDEPENDENCE TO MONTICELLO AND
DUBUQUE.

LINGERING MOISTURE TRAILING THE EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL FUEL
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH A WESTERLY WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH...PERHAPS
HIGHER...BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. EVEN THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-ADVISORY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY.

EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 35-35 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE 22/00Z
SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A QUICK SHOT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SURFACE
LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM GENERATE TRAILING IMPULSES THAT PUSH THE
SNOW THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN THANKSGIVING DAY. HAVE
KEPT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION.
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING SUPPORT RISK OF VERY LIGHT ICING AT KCID AND
KDBQ BEFORE SFC/GROUND TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. MID
LEVEL DRYING AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER STILL COLD
GROUND MAY FOSTER DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO... ADDED MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASE IN WINDS TO 40-45 KTS FROM S/SW AROUND
2000FT AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-
     JONES-LINN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220547
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THUS FAR LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY ICING BEING REPORTED. TEMPS HAVE
CONTINUED A GRADUAL ASCENT ALL EVENING LONG EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
THE WET BULB IS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. JUST HAVENT SEEN
SFC TEMPS DROPPING IN THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE
PCPN... BUT THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE FACT THAT UNTIL
RECENTLY THE RAIN HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF PCPN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURGE OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION. WONDER IF THE UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND EVEN
INTENSITY OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AGGRESSIVELY
WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICING WITH DEWPTS SO
DRY. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE OR FAVORED AREAS FOR LIGHT ICING (LESS THAN
0.1 INCH) WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30. BOTTOM LINE... WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF CWA ALTHOUGH HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA... WEST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEAST
MO BASED ON ROAD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND GIVEN GENERAL FOCUS OF
STEADIER RAIN LIKELY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. FORCING DEPARTS
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
TREND TO DRIZZLE WITH THREAT OF ICE ABATING ALL AREAS BY 12Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION.
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING SUPPORT RISK OF VERY LIGHT ICING AT KCID AND
KDBQ BEFORE SFC/GROUND TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. MID
LEVEL DRYING AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER STILL
COLD GROUND MAY FOSTER DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO... ADDED MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASE IN WINDS TO 40-45 KTS FROM S/SW AROUND
2000FT AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HENRY IA-
     JEFFERSON-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220547
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THUS FAR LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY ICING BEING REPORTED. TEMPS HAVE
CONTINUED A GRADUAL ASCENT ALL EVENING LONG EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
THE WET BULB IS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. JUST HAVENT SEEN
SFC TEMPS DROPPING IN THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE
PCPN... BUT THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE FACT THAT UNTIL
RECENTLY THE RAIN HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF PCPN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURGE OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION. WONDER IF THE UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND EVEN
INTENSITY OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AGGRESSIVELY
WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICING WITH DEWPTS SO
DRY. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE OR FAVORED AREAS FOR LIGHT ICING (LESS THAN
0.1 INCH) WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30. BOTTOM LINE... WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF CWA ALTHOUGH HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA... WEST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEAST
MO BASED ON ROAD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND GIVEN GENERAL FOCUS OF
STEADIER RAIN LIKELY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. FORCING DEPARTS
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
TREND TO DRIZZLE WITH THREAT OF ICE ABATING ALL AREAS BY 12Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
WITH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION.
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING SUPPORT RISK OF VERY LIGHT ICING AT KCID AND
KDBQ BEFORE SFC/GROUND TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. MID
LEVEL DRYING AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER STILL
COLD GROUND MAY FOSTER DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH LIFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO... ADDED MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASE IN WINDS TO 40-45 KTS FROM S/SW AROUND
2000FT AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HENRY IA-
     JEFFERSON-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220343
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
943 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THUS FAR LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY ICING BEING REPORTED. TEMPS HAVE
CONTINUED A GRADUAL ASCENT ALL EVENING LONG EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
THE WET BULB IS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. JUST HAVENT SEEN
SFC TEMPS DROPPING IN THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE
PCPN... BUT THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE FACT THAT UNTIL
RECENTLY THE RAIN HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF PCPN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURGE OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION. WONDER IF THE UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND EVEN
INTENSITY OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AGGRESSIVELY
WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICING WITH DEWPTS SO
DRY. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE OR FAVORED AREAS FOR LIGHT ICING (LESS THAN
0.1 INCH) WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30. BOTTOM LINE... WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF CWA ALTHOUGH HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA... WEST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEAST
MO BASED ON ROAD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND GIVEN GENERAL FOCUS OF
STEADIER RAIN LIKELY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. FORCING DEPARTS
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
TREND TO DRIZZLE WITH THREAT OF ICE ABATING ALL AREAS BY 12Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN PCPN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH ANY ICE ACCRUAL ABATING. ON SATURDAY... MAINLY
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HENRY IA-
     JEFFERSON-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220343
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
943 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THUS FAR LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY ICING BEING REPORTED. TEMPS HAVE
CONTINUED A GRADUAL ASCENT ALL EVENING LONG EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
THE WET BULB IS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. JUST HAVENT SEEN
SFC TEMPS DROPPING IN THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE
PCPN... BUT THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE FACT THAT UNTIL
RECENTLY THE RAIN HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF PCPN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURGE OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION. WONDER IF THE UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND EVEN
INTENSITY OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AGGRESSIVELY
WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICING WITH DEWPTS SO
DRY. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE OR FAVORED AREAS FOR LIGHT ICING (LESS THAN
0.1 INCH) WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30. BOTTOM LINE... WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF CWA ALTHOUGH HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA... WEST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEAST
MO BASED ON ROAD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND GIVEN GENERAL FOCUS OF
STEADIER RAIN LIKELY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. FORCING DEPARTS
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
TREND TO DRIZZLE WITH THREAT OF ICE ABATING ALL AREAS BY 12Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN PCPN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH ANY ICE ACCRUAL ABATING. ON SATURDAY... MAINLY
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HENRY IA-
     JEFFERSON-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220343
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
943 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THUS FAR LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY ICING BEING REPORTED. TEMPS HAVE
CONTINUED A GRADUAL ASCENT ALL EVENING LONG EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
THE WET BULB IS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. JUST HAVENT SEEN
SFC TEMPS DROPPING IN THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE
PCPN... BUT THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE FACT THAT UNTIL
RECENTLY THE RAIN HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF PCPN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURGE OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION. WONDER IF THE UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND EVEN
INTENSITY OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AGGRESSIVELY
WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICING WITH DEWPTS SO
DRY. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE OR FAVORED AREAS FOR LIGHT ICING (LESS THAN
0.1 INCH) WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30. BOTTOM LINE... WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF CWA ALTHOUGH HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA... WEST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEAST
MO BASED ON ROAD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND GIVEN GENERAL FOCUS OF
STEADIER RAIN LIKELY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. FORCING DEPARTS
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
TREND TO DRIZZLE WITH THREAT OF ICE ABATING ALL AREAS BY 12Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN PCPN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH ANY ICE ACCRUAL ABATING. ON SATURDAY... MAINLY
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HENRY IA-
     JEFFERSON-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220343
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
943 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THUS FAR LITTLE IN WAY OF ANY ICING BEING REPORTED. TEMPS HAVE
CONTINUED A GRADUAL ASCENT ALL EVENING LONG EVEN IN AREAS WHERE
THE WET BULB IS WELL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. JUST HAVENT SEEN
SFC TEMPS DROPPING IN THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE
PCPN... BUT THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE FACT THAT UNTIL
RECENTLY THE RAIN HAS BEEN QUITE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF PCPN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURGE OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION. WONDER IF THE UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND EVEN
INTENSITY OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AGGRESSIVELY
WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME ICING WITH DEWPTS SO
DRY. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE OR FAVORED AREAS FOR LIGHT ICING (LESS THAN
0.1 INCH) WOULD APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY
NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30. BOTTOM LINE... WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF CWA ALTHOUGH HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA... WEST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHEAST
MO BASED ON ROAD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND GIVEN GENERAL FOCUS OF
STEADIER RAIN LIKELY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. FORCING DEPARTS
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING
TREND TO DRIZZLE WITH THREAT OF ICE ABATING ALL AREAS BY 12Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN PCPN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH ANY ICE ACCRUAL ABATING. ON SATURDAY... MAINLY
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HENRY IA-
     JEFFERSON-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212339
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
539 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN PCPN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH ANY ICE ACCRUAL ABATING. ON SATURDAY... MAINLY
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 212339
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
539 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING... WITH LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES. WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN PCPN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH ANY ICE ACCRUAL ABATING. ON SATURDAY... MAINLY
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 212137
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
337 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE
30S AND 40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL BE
THE FIRST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 3 AM
THERE BUT CONTINUE TO THE NORTH UNTIL 6 AM SAT.

ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...THE AIR IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. FOR THIS REASON BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS TO FREEZING OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPS TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 03Z/SAT AT KCID
...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH SATURATION IN THE SFC-700 MB
LAYER AND REVEAL A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT
900 MB. WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION IN SFC-750 MB LAYER WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR ASCENT BUT THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF DCVA AS
A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NE KANSAS...MOVES THROUGH E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z/SAT. OMEGA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
CLEARLY PICK UP ON THESE TWO FEATURES.

CONSENSUS OF THE SFC WET-BULB 0 C ISOTHERM IS FOR IT TO REACH THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND DUBUQUE AROUND 11Z OR 12Z.
UNFORTUNATELY GROUND TEMPS ARE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
11.20/12Z FROST DEPTH AT DVN WAS MEASURED AT 7 INCHES...SO SFC
GROUND TEMPS MAY LAG THE AMBIENT TEMP BY SEVERAL HOURS.

GENERALLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY OVER 0.10 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE WELL NW OF A BURLINGTON-TO-PRINCETON LINE.
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW CWA AND SO TOO
ARE THE ICE AMOUNTS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...FOG
AND RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN HOW THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE CYCLONES
MERGE...NOW DEPICTING A YET SLOWER PROCESS...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT OR LATER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS STILL RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH MODERATE TO SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CENTERED ON THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WINDY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. BEYOND...AN ACTIVE NW RESULTING FROM A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER TH EASTERN U.S. WILL RETURNS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM AROUND MIDWEEK.

SATURDAY...THE LEAD WAVE OF STRONG THETAE ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRANSITIONING
TOWARD MORE A DRIZZLE EVENT DURING THE DAY AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ABOVE
850 MB. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LOW QPF BUT YET
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD GROUND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 50S AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER
EASTERN OK AND AR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO TX SPREADS ANOTHER ROUND OF THETAE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO A DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MIX FOR OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG REMAINING LIKELY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER IL. WORKING A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF PW
VALUES OVER 1 INCH...OR JUST OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE MS RIVER EASTWARD...WITH .5 TO 1 INCH TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY SET A NEW DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MLI...WHERE
THE RECORD FOR THE 23RD IS .49 SET IN 1927. COLDER...DRYER AIR WILL
FOLLOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

THE TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ROTATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...RETURNING LOWS TO THE TEENS...THEN LIMIT TUESDAY/S HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OR INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER 02Z/SAT. MOISTURE
WILL RAPIDLY STREAM IN FROM THE S/SW LATE THIS AFTN WHICH WILL
DROP CIGS AND VSBYS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL AND BETWEEN 1-3 SM
LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN BETWEEN 02Z-07Z/SAT IS -FZRA
WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO -FZDZ AFTER THIS TIME. AS SFC TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...A TRANSITION TO
-DZ WILL OCCUR...LIKELY NOT REACHING KDBQ UNTIL AROUND 12Z/SAT.
CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO LIFR DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211813
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TODAY...RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE CURRENTLY GATHERING ACRS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RVR VALLEY. 30 TO 40 KT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY CONVEYOR THIS HIGHER
THETA-E POOL UP ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND ENGULF THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.
BEFORE THEN...LARGE COLD CORE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WESTERN FLANK RETURN FLOW EFFECT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL FEED UP AHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE NOW ACRS THE EASTERN GRT BSN REGION FOR A
PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SATURATION DEPTH FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF TRANSPORT BEING QUICKER THAN SEVERAL OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS NOT TIL LATE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S TRENDS OF SIDING WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF TEMP
BLEND AND THROW AWAY THE NAM WITH IT/S COLD BIAS/FALSE SNOWPACK
FEEDBACK. COLD GROUND...VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ITS/ EFFECTS ON TEMPS HOWEVER
SO AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS WARM AS THE ECMWF OR GFS BUT WILL
STILL LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY. IF PRECIP DOES MANAGE
TO GET INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z...EVEN IF AMBIENT TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES DOWN THERE...COLD FROZEN GROUND WILL MAKE
THE CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN ON GROUND CONTACT.

TONIGHT...KEEPING THE TREND OF COLD FROZEN GROUND AND RAIN
INCREASING OR EVEN TRENDING TO A SHOWERY REGIME AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LOW TO MID
LAYER/ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...WILL GO WITH A CWA-WIDE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA WILL START AT 00Z AND GO TO 09Z SAT MORNING...AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THAT WILL START AT 03Z AND RUN TO 12Z SAT MORNING.
EVEN AS LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION TRENDS TEMPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ABOVE FREEZING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WORRIED ABOUT THE REFRIGERATION EFFECT OF FROZEN GROUND STILL
PRODUCING FREEZING ON CONTACT AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. DEPENDING ON
TEMP AND PRECIP TRENDS WITH THIS IN MIND...THE NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE
TO TWEAK START AND END TIMES OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AS THEY
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE TODAY....JUST WANTED TO GET A GOOD BASE IN
THERE FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY HAVE AN INITIAL DROP OFF WITH EVAPO
COOLING IN THE EVENING...BUT GENERAL NON-DIURNAL STEADY TO SLOW RISE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER WITH QPF TONIGHT OF SWATHS OF 0.10 TO OVER TWO TENTHS
COMBINING LIFT AND SATURATION. BUT WITH OVER SATURATION BIAS OF
SEVERAL RUNS MAY MAKE FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD 0.05 TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. AS FOR ICE ACCUMS...WILL STICK WITH A LIGHT GLAZE
ESPECIALLY INITIALLY AS LATENT HEAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLY
AT TIMES OF A MODERATE SHOWER FROM MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT EAT
AT A THICKER BUILD UP ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NUMEROUS WEATHER CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON FROZEN
GROUND...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE TEMPERED AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
LOW 40S/LOW 50S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER
THE STILL COLD SOIL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUPPORTS THE HEAVIER RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE A GOOD BET. WITH THE
FROZEN GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY
PROBLEMATIC FOR AREA RIVERS. WILL BE WATCHING THE HYDRO SITUATION
CLOSELY INTO NEXT WEEK.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER INCLUDES WINDY CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER 02Z/SAT. MOISTURE
WILL RAPIDLY STREAM IN FROM THE S/SW LATE THIS AFTN WHICH WILL
DROP CIGS AND VSBYS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL AND BETWEEN 1-3 SM
LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN BETWEEN 02Z-07Z/SAT IS -FZRA
WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO -FZDZ AFTER THIS TIME. AS SFC TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...A TRANSITION TO
-DZ WILL OCCUR...LIKELY NOT REACHING KDBQ UNTIL AROUND 12Z/SAT.
CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO LIFR DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211813
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TODAY...RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE CURRENTLY GATHERING ACRS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RVR VALLEY. 30 TO 40 KT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY CONVEYOR THIS HIGHER
THETA-E POOL UP ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND ENGULF THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.
BEFORE THEN...LARGE COLD CORE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WESTERN FLANK RETURN FLOW EFFECT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL FEED UP AHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE NOW ACRS THE EASTERN GRT BSN REGION FOR A
PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SATURATION DEPTH FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF TRANSPORT BEING QUICKER THAN SEVERAL OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS NOT TIL LATE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S TRENDS OF SIDING WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF TEMP
BLEND AND THROW AWAY THE NAM WITH IT/S COLD BIAS/FALSE SNOWPACK
FEEDBACK. COLD GROUND...VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ITS/ EFFECTS ON TEMPS HOWEVER
SO AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS WARM AS THE ECMWF OR GFS BUT WILL
STILL LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY. IF PRECIP DOES MANAGE
TO GET INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z...EVEN IF AMBIENT TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES DOWN THERE...COLD FROZEN GROUND WILL MAKE
THE CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN ON GROUND CONTACT.

TONIGHT...KEEPING THE TREND OF COLD FROZEN GROUND AND RAIN
INCREASING OR EVEN TRENDING TO A SHOWERY REGIME AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LOW TO MID
LAYER/ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...WILL GO WITH A CWA-WIDE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA WILL START AT 00Z AND GO TO 09Z SAT MORNING...AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THAT WILL START AT 03Z AND RUN TO 12Z SAT MORNING.
EVEN AS LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION TRENDS TEMPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ABOVE FREEZING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WORRIED ABOUT THE REFRIGERATION EFFECT OF FROZEN GROUND STILL
PRODUCING FREEZING ON CONTACT AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. DEPENDING ON
TEMP AND PRECIP TRENDS WITH THIS IN MIND...THE NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE
TO TWEAK START AND END TIMES OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AS THEY
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE TODAY....JUST WANTED TO GET A GOOD BASE IN
THERE FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY HAVE AN INITIAL DROP OFF WITH EVAPO
COOLING IN THE EVENING...BUT GENERAL NON-DIURNAL STEADY TO SLOW RISE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER WITH QPF TONIGHT OF SWATHS OF 0.10 TO OVER TWO TENTHS
COMBINING LIFT AND SATURATION. BUT WITH OVER SATURATION BIAS OF
SEVERAL RUNS MAY MAKE FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD 0.05 TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. AS FOR ICE ACCUMS...WILL STICK WITH A LIGHT GLAZE
ESPECIALLY INITIALLY AS LATENT HEAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLY
AT TIMES OF A MODERATE SHOWER FROM MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT EAT
AT A THICKER BUILD UP ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NUMEROUS WEATHER CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON FROZEN
GROUND...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE TEMPERED AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
LOW 40S/LOW 50S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER
THE STILL COLD SOIL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUPPORTS THE HEAVIER RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE A GOOD BET. WITH THE
FROZEN GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY
PROBLEMATIC FOR AREA RIVERS. WILL BE WATCHING THE HYDRO SITUATION
CLOSELY INTO NEXT WEEK.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER INCLUDES WINDY CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER 02Z/SAT. MOISTURE
WILL RAPIDLY STREAM IN FROM THE S/SW LATE THIS AFTN WHICH WILL
DROP CIGS AND VSBYS TO LESS THAN 1 KFT AGL AND BETWEEN 1-3 SM
LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN BETWEEN 02Z-07Z/SAT IS -FZRA
WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO -FZDZ AFTER THIS TIME. AS SFC TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...A TRANSITION TO
-DZ WILL OCCUR...LIKELY NOT REACHING KDBQ UNTIL AROUND 12Z/SAT.
CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO LIFR DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211203
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TODAY...RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE CURRENTLY GATHERING ACRS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RVR VALLEY. 30 TO 40 KT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY CONVEYOR THIS HIGHER
THTA-E POOL UP ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND ENGULF THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.
BEFORE THEN...LARGE COLD CORE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WESTERN FLANK RETURN FLOW EFFECT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL FEED UP AHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE NOW ACRS THE EASTERN GRT BSN REGION FOR A
PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SATURATION DEPTH FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF TRANSPORT BEING QUICKER THAN SEVERAL OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS NOT TIL LATE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S TRENDS OF SIDING WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF TEMP
BLEND AND THROW AWAY THE NAM WITH IT/S COLD BIAS/FALSE SNOWPACK
FEEDBACK. COLD GROUND...VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ITS/ EFFECTS ON TEMPS HOWEVER
SO AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS WARM AS THE ECMWF OR GFS BUT WILL
STILL LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY. IF PRECIP DOES MANAGE
TO GET INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z...EVEN IF AMBIENT TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES DOWN THERE...COLD FROZEN GROUND WILL MAKE
THE CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN ON GROUND CONTACT.

TONIGHT...KEEPING THE TREND OF COLD FROZEN GROUND AND RAIN
INCREASING OR EVEN TRENDING TO A SHOWERY REGIME AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LOW TO MID
LAYER/ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...WILL GO WITH A CWA-WIDE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA WILL START AT 00Z AND GO TO 09Z SAT MORNING...AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THAT WILL START AT 03Z AND RUN TO 12Z SAT MORNING.
EVEN AS LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION TRENDS TEMPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ABOVE FREEZING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WORRIED ABOUT THE REFRIGERATION EFFECT OF FROZEN GROUND STILL
PRODUCING FREEZING ON CONTACT AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. DEPENDING ON
TEMP AND PRECIP TRENDS WITH THIS IN MIND...THE NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE
TO TWEAK START AND END TIMES OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AS THEY
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE TODAY....JUST WANTED TO GET A GOOD BASE IN
THERE FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY HAVE AN INITIAL DROP OFF WITH EVAPO
COOLING IN THE EVENING...BUT GENERAL NON-DIURNAL STEADY TO SLOW RISE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER WITH QPF TONIGHT OF SWATHS OF 0.10 TO OVER TWO TENTHS
COMBINING LIFT AND SATURATION. BUT WITH OVER SATURATION BIAS OF
SEVERAL RUNS MAY MAKE FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD 0.05 TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. AS FOR ICE ACCUMS...WILL STICK WITH A LIGHT GLAZE
ESPECIALLY INITIALLY AS LATENT HEAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLY
AT TIMES OF A MODERATE SHOWER FROM MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT EAT
AT A THICKER BUILD UP ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NUMEROUS WEATHER CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON FROZEN
GROUND...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE TEMPERED AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
LOW 40S/LOW 50S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER
THE STILL COLD SOIL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUPPORTS THE HEAVIER RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE A GOOD BET. WITH THE
FROZEN GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY
PROBLEMATIC FOR AREA RIVERS. WILL BE WATCHING THE HYDRO SITUATION
CLOSELY INTO NEXT WEEK.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER INCLUDES WINDY CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD BUT CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR STREAMING UP FROM THE WESTERN
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ALOFT...WILL PRODUCE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BREAK OUT THIS EVENING FIRST AT
BRL AROUND 7 PM CST...AND SPREAD UP TO CID AND MLI BY AROUND 8-9 PM
CST...DBQ BY 11 PM. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN WARMER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE
VERY COLD GROUND AND FROST DEPTH WILL PRODUCE SOME FREEZING RAIN
ON CONTACT WITH GROUND/RUNWAY SURFACES. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
TRANSLATE TO REGULAR RAIN WITH CONTINUED WARMING BY SAT MORNING.
THE WARMER MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD GROUND BY SOUTH WINDS OF
8-12KTS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT ON INTO
SAT MORNING. IF SFC WINDS DECREASE UNDER 10 KTS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40+ KTS AT 2-3K FT AGL THERE MAY BE A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL EARLY SAT MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211203
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TODAY...RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE CURRENTLY GATHERING ACRS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RVR VALLEY. 30 TO 40 KT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY CONVEYOR THIS HIGHER
THTA-E POOL UP ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND ENGULF THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.
BEFORE THEN...LARGE COLD CORE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WESTERN FLANK RETURN FLOW EFFECT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL FEED UP AHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE NOW ACRS THE EASTERN GRT BSN REGION FOR A
PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SATURATION DEPTH FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF TRANSPORT BEING QUICKER THAN SEVERAL OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS NOT TIL LATE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
PREVIOUS SHIFT/S TRENDS OF SIDING WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF TEMP
BLEND AND THROW AWAY THE NAM WITH IT/S COLD BIAS/FALSE SNOWPACK
FEEDBACK. COLD GROUND...VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ITS/ EFFECTS ON TEMPS HOWEVER
SO AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS WARM AS THE ECMWF OR GFS BUT WILL
STILL LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY. IF PRECIP DOES MANAGE
TO GET INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z...EVEN IF AMBIENT TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES DOWN THERE...COLD FROZEN GROUND WILL MAKE
THE CHC FOR FREEZING RAIN ON GROUND CONTACT.

TONIGHT...KEEPING THE TREND OF COLD FROZEN GROUND AND RAIN
INCREASING OR EVEN TRENDING TO A SHOWERY REGIME AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LOW TO MID
LAYER/ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...WILL GO WITH A CWA-WIDE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA WILL START AT 00Z AND GO TO 09Z SAT MORNING...AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THAT WILL START AT 03Z AND RUN TO 12Z SAT MORNING.
EVEN AS LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION TRENDS TEMPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ABOVE FREEZING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WORRIED ABOUT THE REFRIGERATION EFFECT OF FROZEN GROUND STILL
PRODUCING FREEZING ON CONTACT AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. DEPENDING ON
TEMP AND PRECIP TRENDS WITH THIS IN MIND...THE NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE
TO TWEAK START AND END TIMES OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AS THEY
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE TODAY....JUST WANTED TO GET A GOOD BASE IN
THERE FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY HAVE AN INITIAL DROP OFF WITH EVAPO
COOLING IN THE EVENING...BUT GENERAL NON-DIURNAL STEADY TO SLOW RISE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER WITH QPF TONIGHT OF SWATHS OF 0.10 TO OVER TWO TENTHS
COMBINING LIFT AND SATURATION. BUT WITH OVER SATURATION BIAS OF
SEVERAL RUNS MAY MAKE FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD 0.05 TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. AS FOR ICE ACCUMS...WILL STICK WITH A LIGHT GLAZE
ESPECIALLY INITIALLY AS LATENT HEAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLY
AT TIMES OF A MODERATE SHOWER FROM MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT EAT
AT A THICKER BUILD UP ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NUMEROUS WEATHER CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON FROZEN
GROUND...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE TEMPERED AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
LOW 40S/LOW 50S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER
THE STILL COLD SOIL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUPPORTS THE HEAVIER RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE A GOOD BET. WITH THE
FROZEN GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY
PROBLEMATIC FOR AREA RIVERS. WILL BE WATCHING THE HYDRO SITUATION
CLOSELY INTO NEXT WEEK.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER INCLUDES WINDY CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD BUT CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON. WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR STREAMING UP FROM THE WESTERN
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ALOFT...WILL PRODUCE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BREAK OUT THIS EVENING FIRST AT
BRL AROUND 7 PM CST...AND SPREAD UP TO CID AND MLI BY AROUND 8-9 PM
CST...DBQ BY 11 PM. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING OR EVEN WARMER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE
VERY COLD GROUND AND FROST DEPTH WILL PRODUCE SOME FREEZING RAIN
ON CONTACT WITH GROUND/RUNWAY SURFACES. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
TRANSLATE TO REGULAR RAIN WITH CONTINUED WARMING BY SAT MORNING.
THE WARMER MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLD GROUND BY SOUTH WINDS OF
8-12KTS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY FROM MIDNIGHT ON INTO
SAT MORNING. IF SFC WINDS DECREASE UNDER 10 KTS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40+ KTS AT 2-3K FT AGL THERE MAY BE A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL EARLY SAT MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TODAY...RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE CURRENTLY GATHERING ACRS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RVR VALLEY. 30 TO 40 KT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY CONVEYOR THIS HIGHER
THTA-E POOL UP ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND ENGULF THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. BEFORE
THEN...LARGE COLD CORE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH WESTERN FLANK RETURN
FLOW EFFECT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL
FEED UP AHEAD AND INTERACT WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE NOW ACRS THE
EASTERN GRT BSN REGION FRO A PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH
SATURATION DEPTH FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BUT SOME SIGNALS OF TRANSPORT BEING QUICKER
THAN SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS NOT TIL LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SHIFT/S TRENDS OF SIDING WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF
TEMP BLEND AND THROW AWAY THE NAM WITH IT/S COLD BIAS/FALSE SNOWPACK
FEEDBACK. COLD GROUND...VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ITS/ EFFECTS ON TEMPS HOWEVER
SO AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS WARM AS THE ECMWF OR GFS BUT WILL
STILL LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY. IF PRECIP DOES MANAGE
TO GET INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z...EVEN IF AMBIENT TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 32 DEGREES DOWN THERE...COLD FROZEN GROUND WILL MAKE THE CHC
FOR FREEZING RAIN ON GROUND CONTACT.

TONIGHT...KEEPING THE TREND OF COLD FROZEN GROUND AND RAIN
INCREASING OR EVEN TRENDING TO A SHOWERY REGIME AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LOW TO MID
LAYER/ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...WILL GO WITH A CWA-WIDE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA WILL START AT 00Z AND GO TO 09Z SAT MORNING...AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THAT WILL START AT 03Z AND RUN TO 12Z SAT MORNING.
EVEN AS LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION TRENDS TEMPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ABOVE FREEZING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WORRIED ABOUT THE REFRIGERATION EFFECT OF FROZEN GROUND STILL
PRODUCING FREEZING ON CONTACT AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. DEPENDING ON
TEMP AND PRECIP TRENDS WITH THIS IN MIND...THE NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE
TO TWEAK START AND END TIMES OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AS THEY
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE TODAY....JUST WANTED TO GET A GOOD BASE IN
THERE FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY HAVE AN INITIAL DROP OFF WITH EVAPO
COOLING IN THE EVENING...BUT GENERAL NON-DIURNAL STEADY TO SLOW RISE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER WITH QPF TONIGHT OF SWATHS OF 0.10 TO OVER TWO TENTHS
COMBINING LIFT AND SATURATION. BUT WITH OVER SATURATION BIAS OF
SEVERAL RUNS MAY MAKE FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD 0.05 TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. AS FOR ICE ACCUMS...WILL STICK WITH A LIGHT GLAZE
ESPECIALLY INITIALLY AS LATENT HEAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLY
AT TIMES OF A MODERATE SHOWER FROM MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT EAT
AT A THICKER BUILD UP ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NUMEROUS WEATHER CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON FROZEN
GROUND...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE TEMPERED AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
LOW 40S/LOW 50S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER
THE STILL COLD SOIL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUPPORTS THE HEAVIER RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE A GOOD BET. WITH THE
FROZEN GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY
PROBLEMATIC FOR AREA RIVERS. WILL BE WATCHING THE HYDRO SITUATION
CLOSELY INTO NEXT WEEK.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER INCLUDES WINDY CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
MINOR GLAZING OF ICE... WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING PCPN AND
LIGHT ICING ATTIM FAVORING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 ALTHOUGH CANT BE
RULED OUT FOR BRIEF TIME AT KBRL DURING ONSET.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TODAY...RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE CURRENTLY GATHERING ACRS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RVR VALLEY. 30 TO 40 KT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY CONVEYOR THIS HIGHER
THTA-E POOL UP ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...AND ENGULF THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. BEFORE
THEN...LARGE COLD CORE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH WESTERN FLANK RETURN
FLOW EFFECT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL
FEED UP AHEAD AND INTERACT WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE NOW ACRS THE
EASTERN GRT BSN REGION FRO A PRECIP EVENT TONIGHT...WITH ENOUGH
SATURATION DEPTH FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BUT SOME SIGNALS OF TRANSPORT BEING QUICKER
THAN SEVERAL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS NOT TIL LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SHIFT/S TRENDS OF SIDING WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF
TEMP BLEND AND THROW AWAY THE NAM WITH IT/S COLD BIAS/FALSE SNOWPACK
FEEDBACK. COLD GROUND...VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ITS/ EFFECTS ON TEMPS HOWEVER
SO AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS WARM AS THE ECMWF OR GFS BUT WILL
STILL LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY. IF PRECIP DOES MANAGE
TO GET INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z...EVEN IF AMBIENT TEMPS RISE
ABOVE 32 DEGREES DOWN THERE...COLD FROZEN GROUND WILL MAKE THE CHC
FOR FREEZING RAIN ON GROUND CONTACT.

TONIGHT...KEEPING THE TREND OF COLD FROZEN GROUND AND RAIN
INCREASING OR EVEN TRENDING TO A SHOWERY REGIME AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES AND WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SOME LOW TO MID
LAYER/ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...WILL GO WITH A CWA-WIDE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA WILL START AT 00Z AND GO TO 09Z SAT MORNING...AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF THAT WILL START AT 03Z AND RUN TO 12Z SAT MORNING.
EVEN AS LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION TRENDS TEMPS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ABOVE FREEZING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WORRIED ABOUT THE REFRIGERATION EFFECT OF FROZEN GROUND STILL
PRODUCING FREEZING ON CONTACT AS THE RAIN CONTINUES. DEPENDING ON
TEMP AND PRECIP TRENDS WITH THIS IN MIND...THE NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE
TO TWEAK START AND END TIMES OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AS THEY
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE TODAY....JUST WANTED TO GET A GOOD BASE IN
THERE FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY HAVE AN INITIAL DROP OFF WITH EVAPO
COOLING IN THE EVENING...BUT GENERAL NON-DIURNAL STEADY TO SLOW RISE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER WITH QPF TONIGHT OF SWATHS OF 0.10 TO OVER TWO TENTHS
COMBINING LIFT AND SATURATION. BUT WITH OVER SATURATION BIAS OF
SEVERAL RUNS MAY MAKE FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD 0.05 TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. AS FOR ICE ACCUMS...WILL STICK WITH A LIGHT GLAZE
ESPECIALLY INITIALLY AS LATENT HEAT FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLY
AT TIMES OF A MODERATE SHOWER FROM MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT EAT
AT A THICKER BUILD UP ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NUMEROUS WEATHER CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON FROZEN
GROUND...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE TEMPERED AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE
LOW 40S/LOW 50S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER
THE STILL COLD SOIL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS SUPPORTS THE HEAVIER RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE A GOOD BET. WITH THE
FROZEN GROUND...SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY
PROBLEMATIC FOR AREA RIVERS. WILL BE WATCHING THE HYDRO SITUATION
CLOSELY INTO NEXT WEEK.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...EXPECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER INCLUDES WINDY CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND MORE LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
MINOR GLAZING OF ICE... WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING PCPN AND
LIGHT ICING ATTIM FAVORING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 ALTHOUGH CANT BE
RULED OUT FOR BRIEF TIME AT KBRL DURING ONSET.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210551
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1151 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 30S AND
40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT AT THE
SAME TIME THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO NEAR ZERO IN FAVORED COLD VALLEY
LOCATIONS NORTH OF DAVENPORT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SOME LOCATIONS MAY DIP A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO WHICH IS ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER.
LUCKILY...SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO THE WIND CHILL WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A STEADY...ALBEIT
LIGHT...SSE FLOW AT THE SFC. LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850
MB TEMPS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. SREF HAS 850 MB TEMPS AT -10 C
THIS EVENING WARMING TO NEAR +4 C BY FRIDAY EVENING.

NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BY 00Z/SAT THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA IS
PROJECTED TO HAVE 1000-500 MB AVG RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND
85-90%...PER THE NAM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT 900 MB. INCLUDED 20-30%
POPS IN THE FAR SW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
DURING THE LATE AFTN. NAM IS THE COLDEST MODEL WITH REGARD TO SFC
TEMPS BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS WHICH HAS
MID 30S IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WILL
FEATURE A SHARP CHANGE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF CLOUDY...DAMP AND FOGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT FROM A LARGE...INTENSE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT MERGE
OVER THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. THE 12Z MODELS
HAVE MADE A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM SOME.
EVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF NOW TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IL ON THE WAY TO LOWER MI VS THE MUCH MORE NORTHWESTERLY PATH
DEPICTED JUST 24 HOURS AGO THAT SUGGESTED THE LOW POSSIBLY PASSING
THROUGH FAR EASTERN IA. OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS OTHER THAN NOW FOCUSING THE BULK OF THE RAIN
INTO THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM AZ AND NM
WILL RESULT IN A SURGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THIS
WAVE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL ANALYSIS REVEALED THE WRF/NAM HAD A
POOR INITIALIZATION OR DEPICTION OF THE SNOW COVER OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NW IL THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAD 2 TO 4 INCHES...VS
THE TRACE TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS ACTUALLY OBSERVED. THIS APPEARS TO
RESULT IN A COOL MODEL BIAS...BY AS MUCH 5 DEGREES OR MORE IN BOTH
THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS ALSO NOTED IN
MODEL OUTPUT YESTERDAY...AND APPEARS TO EXTEND WELL INTO THE
WEEKEND. ACCOUNTING FOR THIS...HAVE NUDGED SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS UPWARD CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF...GFS AND GEM
OUTPUT...BUT THINK FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. THE
ONLY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH THE FROZEN GROUND IMPACTS THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
GLAZING OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE AIR AND GROUND TEMPERATURES NUDGE ABOVE FREEZING BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
LATEST NON-WRF MODEL DATA SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RISING POSSIBLY AS
HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH...WITH UPPER 40S NORTH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD GROUND AND EARLY SEASON FROST SEVERAL INCHES
DEEP...AND CONSIDERING OVERCAST CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT HIGHS
TEMPERED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NW DURING THE DAY AND ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DEEPENING LOW...NEARING 3 4O 4 SIGMA
IN STRENGTH...WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING
THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY WITH QPF IN THE RANGE OF ONE HALF TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OR
MORE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OVER ESPECIALLY NW
IL BEFORE THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THIS PROCESS
WILL DRAW IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE BRISK WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
RAP AROUND BEHIND THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS
COULD WIND UP WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING OR BECOMING VERY LIGHT
AS THE DRY SLOT ENVELOPS THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

MONDAY WILL BE A WINDY...UNSETTLED DAY AS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE REAL COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A NW FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THIS WILL LOWER
MONDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE UPPER 20 TO AROUND 30
TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW FINALLY EXITS. BEYOND...MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED
AWAY FROM THE CLOSED LATE WEEK SURFACE LOW AND INSTEAD INDICATE A
POSSIBLE MID OR LATE WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM IN A NW FLOW. THIS WILL
JUSTIFY KEEPING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW WHILE
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
MINOR GLAZING OF ICE... WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING PCPN AND
LIGHT ICING ATTIM FAVORING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 ALTHOUGH CANT BE
RULED OUT FOR BRIEF TIME AT KBRL DURING ONSET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 20...

MOLINE.........8 IN 1880
CEDAR RAPIDS...5 IN 1914
DUBUQUE........5 IN 1964 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
BURLINGTON.....7 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 21...

MOLINE.........1 IN 1880
CEDAR RAPIDS...0 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........-5 IN 1880
BURLINGTON.....4 IN 1937

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210551
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1151 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AND SFC TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 30S AND
40S DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT AT THE
SAME TIME THAT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO NEAR ZERO IN FAVORED COLD VALLEY
LOCATIONS NORTH OF DAVENPORT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT SOME LOCATIONS MAY DIP A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO WHICH IS ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER.
LUCKILY...SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO THE WIND CHILL WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A STEADY...ALBEIT
LIGHT...SSE FLOW AT THE SFC. LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CAUSE 850
MB TEMPS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. SREF HAS 850 MB TEMPS AT -10 C
THIS EVENING WARMING TO NEAR +4 C BY FRIDAY EVENING.

NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BY 00Z/SAT THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA IS
PROJECTED TO HAVE 1000-500 MB AVG RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND
85-90%...PER THE NAM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEAL A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT PEAKS AT +6 C AT 900 MB. INCLUDED 20-30%
POPS IN THE FAR SW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
DURING THE LATE AFTN. NAM IS THE COLDEST MODEL WITH REGARD TO SFC
TEMPS BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS WHICH HAS
MID 30S IN THIS AREA DURING THE LATE AFTN. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FOCUS IS ON THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WILL
FEATURE A SHARP CHANGE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF CLOUDY...DAMP AND FOGGY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT FROM A LARGE...INTENSE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS THAT MERGE
OVER THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. THE 12Z MODELS
HAVE MADE A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT AND SLOWED THE SYSTEM SOME.
EVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF NOW TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH
CENTRAL IL ON THE WAY TO LOWER MI VS THE MUCH MORE NORTHWESTERLY PATH
DEPICTED JUST 24 HOURS AGO THAT SUGGESTED THE LOW POSSIBLY PASSING
THROUGH FAR EASTERN IA. OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINIMAL TWEAKS OTHER THAN NOW FOCUSING THE BULK OF THE RAIN
INTO THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM AZ AND NM
WILL RESULT IN A SURGE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THIS
WAVE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL ANALYSIS REVEALED THE WRF/NAM HAD A
POOR INITIALIZATION OR DEPICTION OF THE SNOW COVER OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NW IL THIS MORNING...WHERE IT HAD 2 TO 4 INCHES...VS
THE TRACE TO NEAR 1 INCH AMOUNTS ACTUALLY OBSERVED. THIS APPEARS TO
RESULT IN A COOL MODEL BIAS...BY AS MUCH 5 DEGREES OR MORE IN BOTH
THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS ALSO NOTED IN
MODEL OUTPUT YESTERDAY...AND APPEARS TO EXTEND WELL INTO THE
WEEKEND. ACCOUNTING FOR THIS...HAVE NUDGED SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS UPWARD CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF...GFS AND GEM
OUTPUT...BUT THINK FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. THE
ONLY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH THE FROZEN GROUND IMPACTS THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
GLAZING OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE AIR AND GROUND TEMPERATURES NUDGE ABOVE FREEZING BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
LATEST NON-WRF MODEL DATA SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RISING POSSIBLY AS
HIGH AS THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH...WITH UPPER 40S NORTH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD GROUND AND EARLY SEASON FROST SEVERAL INCHES
DEEP...AND CONSIDERING OVERCAST CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT HIGHS
TEMPERED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NW DURING THE DAY AND ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DEEPENING LOW...NEARING 3 4O 4 SIGMA
IN STRENGTH...WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING
THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY WITH QPF IN THE RANGE OF ONE HALF TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OR
MORE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OVER ESPECIALLY NW
IL BEFORE THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THIS PROCESS
WILL DRAW IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE BRISK WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
RAP AROUND BEHIND THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS
COULD WIND UP WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING OR BECOMING VERY LIGHT
AS THE DRY SLOT ENVELOPS THE AREA BY SUNRISE.

MONDAY WILL BE A WINDY...UNSETTLED DAY AS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE REAL COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A NW FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THIS WILL LOWER
MONDAY/S HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE UPPER 20 TO AROUND 30
TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW FINALLY EXITS. BEYOND...MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED
AWAY FROM THE CLOSED LATE WEEK SURFACE LOW AND INSTEAD INDICATE A
POSSIBLE MID OR LATE WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM IN A NW FLOW. THIS WILL
JUSTIFY KEEPING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW WHILE
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH
MINOR GLAZING OF ICE... WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING PCPN AND
LIGHT ICING ATTIM FAVORING NEAR AND NORTH OF I 80 ALTHOUGH CANT BE
RULED OUT FOR BRIEF TIME AT KBRL DURING ONSET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 20...

MOLINE.........8 IN 1880
CEDAR RAPIDS...5 IN 1914
DUBUQUE........5 IN 1964 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
BURLINGTON.....7 IN 1914

RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 21...

MOLINE.........1 IN 1880
CEDAR RAPIDS...0 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........-5 IN 1880
BURLINGTON.....4 IN 1937

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05








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