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000
FXUS63 KDVN 011133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN MO. LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT STRONG WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
STRONG STORMS INTO WESTERN MO... WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 850-700 CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDING E/SE
FROM SOUTHEAST NE TO EASTERN MO JUST GLANCING OUR NORTHEAST MO
COUNTIES EARLIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED
UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
SECONDARY AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS
USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S... AND LOOP WITH TRENDS OF
SURFACE DEWPTS SHOW CONTINUED SAGGING SOUTHWARD OF THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOSTLY SMALL PCPN CHCS... AND IMPACT OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ON
TEMPS.

THIS AM... SMALL SHOWER CHCS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THEN... THIS
AFTN/EVE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER ND SHOWN TO WEAKEN WHILE
SLIDING E/SE TOWARD MID-MISSISSIPPI VLY. ISENTROPICALLY
DIMINISHING TREND NOTED IN OMEGAS ON 310K SURFACE... AND COUPLED
WITH INCREASING N/E FLOW SURFACE TO 850 MB USHERING IN DRIER AIR
AND SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AND
ESPECIALLY FURTHER S/W SUPPORT DIMINISHING PCPN FROM SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BY MID AFTN... WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVE ALL BUT NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BETTER MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST LATE AFTN/EVE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE
VORT MAX AND SLIDES E/SE ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FORCING
THEN PASSES BY LATE EVE AND SOME MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX
PASSING OVERNIGHT... BUT BY THEN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
DEEPER E/NE FLOW AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHCS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE. TONIGHT...VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY FLOW USHERING IN DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS
LOWERING THROUGH THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST IL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTHWEST IL TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TIED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME WITH HEIGHTS FALLING AND THE CWA BEING ON THE EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIME WILL TELL.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY BUT A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER...AROUND
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AT DBQ. WILL BE CLOSE AT MLI AS DECK IS
NOT FAR AWAY BUT HAS SLOWED WITH SUNRISE. LINGERING SCATTERED
STRATOCU WITH MVFR BASES POSSIBLE AT DBQ AND MLI INTO THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF
THE TAF CYCLE AND THROUGHOUT AT CID AND BRL. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI BUT NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THE
TERMINALS. BRL MEANWHILE WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COULD SEE MORE ROBUST SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF.
LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RENEWED
SURGE OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IMPACTING DBQ AND POSSIBLE MLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 011133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN MO. LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT STRONG WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
STRONG STORMS INTO WESTERN MO... WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 850-700 CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDING E/SE
FROM SOUTHEAST NE TO EASTERN MO JUST GLANCING OUR NORTHEAST MO
COUNTIES EARLIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED
UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
SECONDARY AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS
USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S... AND LOOP WITH TRENDS OF
SURFACE DEWPTS SHOW CONTINUED SAGGING SOUTHWARD OF THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOSTLY SMALL PCPN CHCS... AND IMPACT OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ON
TEMPS.

THIS AM... SMALL SHOWER CHCS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THEN... THIS
AFTN/EVE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER ND SHOWN TO WEAKEN WHILE
SLIDING E/SE TOWARD MID-MISSISSIPPI VLY. ISENTROPICALLY
DIMINISHING TREND NOTED IN OMEGAS ON 310K SURFACE... AND COUPLED
WITH INCREASING N/E FLOW SURFACE TO 850 MB USHERING IN DRIER AIR
AND SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AND
ESPECIALLY FURTHER S/W SUPPORT DIMINISHING PCPN FROM SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BY MID AFTN... WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVE ALL BUT NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BETTER MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST LATE AFTN/EVE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE
VORT MAX AND SLIDES E/SE ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FORCING
THEN PASSES BY LATE EVE AND SOME MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX
PASSING OVERNIGHT... BUT BY THEN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
DEEPER E/NE FLOW AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHCS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE. TONIGHT...VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY FLOW USHERING IN DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS
LOWERING THROUGH THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST IL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTHWEST IL TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TIED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME WITH HEIGHTS FALLING AND THE CWA BEING ON THE EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIME WILL TELL.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY BUT A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER...AROUND
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AT DBQ. WILL BE CLOSE AT MLI AS DECK IS
NOT FAR AWAY BUT HAS SLOWED WITH SUNRISE. LINGERING SCATTERED
STRATOCU WITH MVFR BASES POSSIBLE AT DBQ AND MLI INTO THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF
THE TAF CYCLE AND THROUGHOUT AT CID AND BRL. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI BUT NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THE
TERMINALS. BRL MEANWHILE WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COULD SEE MORE ROBUST SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF.
LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RENEWED
SURGE OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IMPACTING DBQ AND POSSIBLE MLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN MO. LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT STRONG WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
STRONG STORMS INTO WESTERN MO... WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 850-700 CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDING E/SE
FROM SOUTHEAST NE TO EASTERN MO JUST GLANCING OUR NORTHEAST MO
COUNTIES EARLIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED
UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
SECONDARY AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS
USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S... AND LOOP WITH TRENDS OF
SURFACE DEWPTS SHOW CONTINUED SAGGING SOUTHWARD OF THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOSTLY SMALL PCPN CHCS... AND IMPACT OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ON
TEMPS.

THIS AM... SMALL SHOWER CHCS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THEN... THIS
AFTN/EVE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER ND SHOWN TO WEAKEN WHILE
SLIDING E/SE TOWARD MID-MISSISSIPPI VLY. ISENTROPICALLY
DIMINISHING TREND NOTED IN OMEGAS ON 310K SURFACE... AND COUPLED
WITH INCREASING N/E FLOW SURFACE TO 850 MB USHERING IN DRIER AIR
AND SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AND
ESPECIALLY FURTHER S/W SUPPORT DIMINISHING PCPN FROM SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BY MID AFTN... WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVE ALL BUT NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BETTER MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST LATE AFTN/EVE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE
VORT MAX AND SLIDES E/SE ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FORCING
THEN PASSES BY LATE EVE AND SOME MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX
PASSING OVERNIGHT... BUT BY THEN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
DEEPER E/NE FLOW AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHCS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE. TONIGHT...VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY FLOW USHERING IN DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS
LOWERING THROUGH THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST IL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTHWEST IL TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TIED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME WITH HEIGHTS FALLING AND THE CWA BEING ON THE EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIME WILL TELL.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY BUT A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER...AROUND
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AT DBQ. WILL BE CLOSE AT MLI AS DECK IS
NOT FAR AWAY BUT HAS SLOWED WITH SUNRISE. LINGERING SCATTERED
STRATOCU WITH MVFR BASES POSSIBLE AT DBQ AND MLI INTO THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF
THE TAF CYCLE AND THROUGHOUT AT CID AND BRL. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI BUT NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THE
TERMINALS. BRL MEANWHILE WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COULD SEE MORE ROBUST SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF.
LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RENEWED
SURGE OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IMPACTING DBQ AND POSSIBLE MLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN MO. LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT STRONG WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
STRONG STORMS INTO WESTERN MO... WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 850-700 CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDING E/SE
FROM SOUTHEAST NE TO EASTERN MO JUST GLANCING OUR NORTHEAST MO
COUNTIES EARLIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED
UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
SECONDARY AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS
USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S... AND LOOP WITH TRENDS OF
SURFACE DEWPTS SHOW CONTINUED SAGGING SOUTHWARD OF THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOSTLY SMALL PCPN CHCS... AND IMPACT OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ON
TEMPS.

THIS AM... SMALL SHOWER CHCS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THEN... THIS
AFTN/EVE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER ND SHOWN TO WEAKEN WHILE
SLIDING E/SE TOWARD MID-MISSISSIPPI VLY. ISENTROPICALLY
DIMINISHING TREND NOTED IN OMEGAS ON 310K SURFACE... AND COUPLED
WITH INCREASING N/E FLOW SURFACE TO 850 MB USHERING IN DRIER AIR
AND SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AND
ESPECIALLY FURTHER S/W SUPPORT DIMINISHING PCPN FROM SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BY MID AFTN... WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVE ALL BUT NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BETTER MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST LATE AFTN/EVE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE
VORT MAX AND SLIDES E/SE ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FORCING
THEN PASSES BY LATE EVE AND SOME MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX
PASSING OVERNIGHT... BUT BY THEN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
DEEPER E/NE FLOW AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHCS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE. TONIGHT...VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY FLOW USHERING IN DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS
LOWERING THROUGH THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST IL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTHWEST IL TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TIED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME WITH HEIGHTS FALLING AND THE CWA BEING ON THE EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIME WILL TELL.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY BUT A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER...AROUND
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING AT DBQ. WILL BE CLOSE AT MLI AS DECK IS
NOT FAR AWAY BUT HAS SLOWED WITH SUNRISE. LINGERING SCATTERED
STRATOCU WITH MVFR BASES POSSIBLE AT DBQ AND MLI INTO THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF
THE TAF CYCLE AND THROUGHOUT AT CID AND BRL. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI BUT NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THE
TERMINALS. BRL MEANWHILE WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
COULD SEE MORE ROBUST SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF.
LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RENEWED
SURGE OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IMPACTING DBQ AND POSSIBLE MLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 010829
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN MO. LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT STRONG WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
STRONG STORMS INTO WESTERN MO... WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 850-700 CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDING E/SE
FROM SOUTHEAST NE TO EASTERN MO JUST GLANCING OUR NORTHEAST MO
COUNTIES EARLIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED
UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
SECONDARY AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS
USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S... AND LOOP WITH TRENDS OF
SURFACE DEWPTS SHOW CONTINUED SAGGING SOUTHWARD OF THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOSTLY SMALL PCPN CHCS... AND IMPACT OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ON
TEMPS.

THIS AM... SMALL SHOWER CHCS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THEN... THIS
AFTN/EVE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER ND SHOWN TO WEAKEN WHILE
SLIDING E/SE TOWARD MID-MISSISSIPPI VLY. ISENTROPICALLY
DIMINISHING TREND NOTED IN OMEGAS ON 310K SURFACE... AND COUPLED
WITH INCREASING N/E FLOW SURFACE TO 850 MB USHERING IN DRIER AIR
AND SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AND
ESPECIALLY FURTHER S/W SUPPORT DIMINISHING PCPN FROM SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BY MID AFTN... WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVE ALL BUT NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BETTER MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST LATE AFTN/EVE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE
VORT MAX AND SLIDES E/SE ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FORCING
THEN PASSES BY LATE EVE AND SOME MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX
PASSING OVERNIGHT... BUT BY THEN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
DEEPER E/NE FLOW AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHCS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE. TONIGHT...VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY FLOW USHERING IN DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS
LOWERING THROUGH THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST IL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTHWEST IL TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TIED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME WITH HEIGHTS FALLING AND THE CWA BEING ON THE EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIME WILL TELL.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY BUT A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER...AROUND
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR
VSBYS THIS AM AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. TEMP AND DEWPOINT HAS
DROPPED ACROSS THE AREA. OBS SUGGEST THAT THE HAZE FROM SMOKE HAS
REDUCED HERE. THINK THAT SOME MVFR BR COULD FORM NEAR SUNRISE
HERE. OTHERWISE....BRL COULD SEE SOME VCSH...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MY GUT TELLS ME THAT BRL WONT SEE ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO MAJOR WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 010829
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN MO. LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT STRONG WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
STRONG STORMS INTO WESTERN MO... WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 850-700 CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDING E/SE
FROM SOUTHEAST NE TO EASTERN MO JUST GLANCING OUR NORTHEAST MO
COUNTIES EARLIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED
UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
SECONDARY AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS
USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S... AND LOOP WITH TRENDS OF
SURFACE DEWPTS SHOW CONTINUED SAGGING SOUTHWARD OF THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOSTLY SMALL PCPN CHCS... AND IMPACT OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ON
TEMPS.

THIS AM... SMALL SHOWER CHCS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THEN... THIS
AFTN/EVE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER ND SHOWN TO WEAKEN WHILE
SLIDING E/SE TOWARD MID-MISSISSIPPI VLY. ISENTROPICALLY
DIMINISHING TREND NOTED IN OMEGAS ON 310K SURFACE... AND COUPLED
WITH INCREASING N/E FLOW SURFACE TO 850 MB USHERING IN DRIER AIR
AND SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AND
ESPECIALLY FURTHER S/W SUPPORT DIMINISHING PCPN FROM SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BY MID AFTN... WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVE ALL BUT NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BETTER MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST LATE AFTN/EVE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE
VORT MAX AND SLIDES E/SE ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FORCING
THEN PASSES BY LATE EVE AND SOME MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX
PASSING OVERNIGHT... BUT BY THEN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
DEEPER E/NE FLOW AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHCS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE. TONIGHT...VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY FLOW USHERING IN DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS
LOWERING THROUGH THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST IL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTHWEST IL TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TIED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME WITH HEIGHTS FALLING AND THE CWA BEING ON THE EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIME WILL TELL.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY BUT A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER...AROUND
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR
VSBYS THIS AM AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. TEMP AND DEWPOINT HAS
DROPPED ACROSS THE AREA. OBS SUGGEST THAT THE HAZE FROM SMOKE HAS
REDUCED HERE. THINK THAT SOME MVFR BR COULD FORM NEAR SUNRISE
HERE. OTHERWISE....BRL COULD SEE SOME VCSH...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MY GUT TELLS ME THAT BRL WONT SEE ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO MAJOR WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 010436 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAIN ACROSS W IA
HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WONT
MAKE IT TO THE FAR SW UNTIL 06Z WED. DID INCREASE THE POPS
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS A NOD TO THE HIRES MODELS THAT SUGGEST AREAS
FROM I80 SOUTH COULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS SLIGHTLY
TO REPRESENT THAT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
TROF INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW A SMOKE LAYER HIGH ALOFT WITH IT MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI ON WEST. LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. AN INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW THE TEMPERATURE NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNSET...NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BASED ON WHAT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING INTERNALLY...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...SCOTLAND AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CLARK
COUNTIES COULD GET BRUSHED WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN.

IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD DEVELOP JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT RAINFALL IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS MIGHT BE UNDER 0.10 INCHES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KGBG LINE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WHILE LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WET AND
ACTIVE...THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIATIONS TO THIS...BUT OVER ALL WE HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
A MORE DRY REGIME IS IN STORE FOR SOME TIME.

RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTION AND RAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA BORDER...OR MORE LESS
KEEP MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE HEART OF THE WET WEATHER.

THUS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...WITH QUITE
MILD AIR FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BRING NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR MOST
ACTIVITIES. DRY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY. AT WHICH POINT...POPS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS IS ACTIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH A QUICK CHANGE BACK
TO A REGIME OF WET WEATHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI / SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH DRY IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THE EXTENDED GFS
BRINGS A LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
ROCKIES...PLACING A FAVORABLE HEAT DOME THERE AND AGGRESSIVE MCS
TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THUS...BEYOND TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR
VSBYS THIS AM AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. TEMP AND DEWPOINT HAS
DROPPED ACROSS THE AREA. OBS SUGGEST THAT THE HAZE FROM SMOKE HAS
REDUCED HERE. THINK THAT SOME MVFR BR COULD FORM NEAR SUNRISE
HERE. OTHERWISE....BRL COULD SEE SOME VCSH...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MY GUT TELLS ME THAT BRL WONT SEE ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO MAJOR WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 010436 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAIN ACROSS W IA
HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WONT
MAKE IT TO THE FAR SW UNTIL 06Z WED. DID INCREASE THE POPS
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS A NOD TO THE HIRES MODELS THAT SUGGEST AREAS
FROM I80 SOUTH COULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS SLIGHTLY
TO REPRESENT THAT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
TROF INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW A SMOKE LAYER HIGH ALOFT WITH IT MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI ON WEST. LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. AN INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW THE TEMPERATURE NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNSET...NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BASED ON WHAT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING INTERNALLY...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...SCOTLAND AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CLARK
COUNTIES COULD GET BRUSHED WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN.

IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD DEVELOP JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT RAINFALL IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS MIGHT BE UNDER 0.10 INCHES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KGBG LINE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WHILE LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WET AND
ACTIVE...THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIATIONS TO THIS...BUT OVER ALL WE HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
A MORE DRY REGIME IS IN STORE FOR SOME TIME.

RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTION AND RAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA BORDER...OR MORE LESS
KEEP MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE HEART OF THE WET WEATHER.

THUS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...WITH QUITE
MILD AIR FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BRING NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR MOST
ACTIVITIES. DRY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY. AT WHICH POINT...POPS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS IS ACTIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH A QUICK CHANGE BACK
TO A REGIME OF WET WEATHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI / SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH DRY IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THE EXTENDED GFS
BRINGS A LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
ROCKIES...PLACING A FAVORABLE HEAT DOME THERE AND AGGRESSIVE MCS
TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THUS...BEYOND TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR
VSBYS THIS AM AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. TEMP AND DEWPOINT HAS
DROPPED ACROSS THE AREA. OBS SUGGEST THAT THE HAZE FROM SMOKE HAS
REDUCED HERE. THINK THAT SOME MVFR BR COULD FORM NEAR SUNRISE
HERE. OTHERWISE....BRL COULD SEE SOME VCSH...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MY GUT TELLS ME THAT BRL WONT SEE ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO MAJOR WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 010436 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAIN ACROSS W IA
HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WONT
MAKE IT TO THE FAR SW UNTIL 06Z WED. DID INCREASE THE POPS
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS A NOD TO THE HIRES MODELS THAT SUGGEST AREAS
FROM I80 SOUTH COULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS SLIGHTLY
TO REPRESENT THAT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
TROF INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW A SMOKE LAYER HIGH ALOFT WITH IT MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI ON WEST. LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. AN INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW THE TEMPERATURE NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNSET...NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BASED ON WHAT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING INTERNALLY...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...SCOTLAND AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CLARK
COUNTIES COULD GET BRUSHED WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN.

IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD DEVELOP JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT RAINFALL IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS MIGHT BE UNDER 0.10 INCHES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KGBG LINE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WHILE LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WET AND
ACTIVE...THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIATIONS TO THIS...BUT OVER ALL WE HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
A MORE DRY REGIME IS IN STORE FOR SOME TIME.

RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTION AND RAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA BORDER...OR MORE LESS
KEEP MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE HEART OF THE WET WEATHER.

THUS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...WITH QUITE
MILD AIR FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BRING NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR MOST
ACTIVITIES. DRY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY. AT WHICH POINT...POPS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS IS ACTIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH A QUICK CHANGE BACK
TO A REGIME OF WET WEATHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI / SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH DRY IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THE EXTENDED GFS
BRINGS A LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
ROCKIES...PLACING A FAVORABLE HEAT DOME THERE AND AGGRESSIVE MCS
TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THUS...BEYOND TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR
VSBYS THIS AM AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. TEMP AND DEWPOINT HAS
DROPPED ACROSS THE AREA. OBS SUGGEST THAT THE HAZE FROM SMOKE HAS
REDUCED HERE. THINK THAT SOME MVFR BR COULD FORM NEAR SUNRISE
HERE. OTHERWISE....BRL COULD SEE SOME VCSH...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...MY GUT TELLS ME THAT BRL WONT SEE ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO MAJOR WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302356 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
656 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAIN ACROSS W IA
HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WONT
MAKE IT TO THE FAR SW UNTIL 06Z WED. DID INCREASE THE POPS
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS A NOD TO THE HIRES MODELS THAT SUGGEST AREAS
FROM I80 SOUTH COULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS SLIGHTLY
TO REPRESENT THAT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
TROF INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW A SMOKE LAYER HIGH ALOFT WITH IT MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI ON WEST. LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. AN INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW THE TEMPERATURE NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNSET...NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BASED ON WHAT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING INTERNALLY...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...SCOTLAND AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CLARK
COUNTIES COULD GET BRUSHED WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN.

IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD DEVELOP JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT RAINFALL IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS MIGHT BE UNDER 0.10 INCHES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KGBG LINE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WHILE LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WET AND
ACTIVE...THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIATIONS TO THIS...BUT OVER ALL WE HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
A MORE DRY REGIME IS IN STORE FOR SOME TIME.

RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTION AND RAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA BORDER...OR MORE LESS
KEEP MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE HEART OF THE WET WEATHER.

THUS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...WITH QUITE
MILD AIR FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BRING NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR MOST
ACTIVITIES. DRY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY. AT WHICH POINT...POPS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS IS ACTIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH A QUICK CHANGE BACK
TO A REGIME OF WET WEATHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI / SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH DRY IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THE EXTENDED GFS
BRINGS A LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
ROCKIES...PLACING A FAVORABLE HEAT DOME THERE AND AGGRESSIVE MCS
TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THUS...BEYOND TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAZE ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VISBYS AT OR
AROUND 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME RAIN MAKE IT TO
BRL..THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HAZE BEING CLEARED OUT AT BRL
TOMORROW. DO NOT THINK THUNDER WILL HAPPEN AT BRL...BUT THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE..WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 302356 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
656 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAIN ACROSS W IA
HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WONT
MAKE IT TO THE FAR SW UNTIL 06Z WED. DID INCREASE THE POPS
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AS A NOD TO THE HIRES MODELS THAT SUGGEST AREAS
FROM I80 SOUTH COULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS COULD BE OVERDONE BUT DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS SLIGHTLY
TO REPRESENT THAT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
TROF INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW A SMOKE LAYER HIGH ALOFT WITH IT MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI ON WEST. LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. AN INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW THE TEMPERATURE NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNSET...NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BASED ON WHAT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING INTERNALLY...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...SCOTLAND AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CLARK
COUNTIES COULD GET BRUSHED WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN.

IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD DEVELOP JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT RAINFALL IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS MIGHT BE UNDER 0.10 INCHES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KGBG LINE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WHILE LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WET AND
ACTIVE...THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIATIONS TO THIS...BUT OVER ALL WE HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
A MORE DRY REGIME IS IN STORE FOR SOME TIME.

RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTION AND RAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA BORDER...OR MORE LESS
KEEP MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE HEART OF THE WET WEATHER.

THUS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...WITH QUITE
MILD AIR FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BRING NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR MOST
ACTIVITIES. DRY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY. AT WHICH POINT...POPS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS IS ACTIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH A QUICK CHANGE BACK
TO A REGIME OF WET WEATHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI / SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH DRY IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THE EXTENDED GFS
BRINGS A LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
ROCKIES...PLACING A FAVORABLE HEAT DOME THERE AND AGGRESSIVE MCS
TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THUS...BEYOND TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAZE ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VISBYS AT OR
AROUND 6SM THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME RAIN MAKE IT TO
BRL..THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HAZE BEING CLEARED OUT AT BRL
TOMORROW. DO NOT THINK THUNDER WILL HAPPEN AT BRL...BUT THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE..WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302024
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
TROF INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW A SMOKE LAYER HIGH ALOFT WITH IT MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI ON WEST. LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. AN INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW THE TEMPERATURE NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNSET...NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BASED ON WHAT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING INTERNALLY...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...SCOTLAND AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CLARK
COUNTIES COULD GET BRUSHED WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN.

IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD DEVELOP JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT RAINFALL IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS MIGHT BE UNDER 0.10 INCHES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KGBG LINE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WHILE LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WET AND
ACTIVE...THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIATIONS TO THIS...BUT OVER ALL WE HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
A MORE DRY REGIME IS IN STORE FOR SOME TIME.

RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTION AND RAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA BORDER...OR MORE LESS
KEEP MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE HEART OF THE WET WEATHER.

THUS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...WITH QUITE
MILD AIR FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BRING NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR MOST
ACTIVITIES. DRY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY. AT WHICH POINT...POPS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS IS ACTIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH A QUICK CHANGE BACK
TO A REGIME OF WET WEATHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI / SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH DRY IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THE EXTENDED GFS
BRINGS A LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
ROCKIES...PLACING A FAVORABLE HEAT DOME THERE AND AGGRESSIVE MCS
TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THUS...BEYOND TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN ARE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. MODEL DIFFERENCES RAISE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THEY WILL GET. AS SUCH KDBQ HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL AT SEEING SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH 00Z/01. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/01. AFT 06Z/01 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL AFFECT THE MIDWEST BUT SHOULD MISS EASTERN IOWA. LIGHT WINDS
MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302024
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK
TROF INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AN 850MB WARM FRONT RAN FROM NORTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW A SMOKE LAYER HIGH ALOFT WITH IT MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI ON WEST. LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHILE A BAND OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. AN INFERRED WEAK BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW THE TEMPERATURE NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNSET...NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD JUST BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BASED ON WHAT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING INTERNALLY...THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...SCOTLAND AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CLARK
COUNTIES COULD GET BRUSHED WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN.

IF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WOULD DEVELOP JUST A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT RAINFALL IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS MIGHT BE UNDER 0.10 INCHES.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KGBG LINE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE NOCTURNAL STORM COMPLEX COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WHILE LOCATIONS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WET AND
ACTIVE...THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL FINALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIATIONS TO THIS...BUT OVER ALL WE HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
A MORE DRY REGIME IS IN STORE FOR SOME TIME.

RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SOLID PUSH OF DRY AIR TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTION AND RAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA BORDER...OR MORE LESS
KEEP MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE HEART OF THE WET WEATHER.

THUS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...WITH QUITE
MILD AIR FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BRING NEARLY IDEAL WEATHER FOR MOST
ACTIVITIES. DRY...AND JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY. AT WHICH POINT...POPS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARD LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS IS ACTIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...WITH A QUICK CHANGE BACK
TO A REGIME OF WET WEATHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI / SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH DRY IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THE EXTENDED GFS
BRINGS A LARGE UPPER HIGH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN
ROCKIES...PLACING A FAVORABLE HEAT DOME THERE AND AGGRESSIVE MCS
TRACK THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THUS...BEYOND TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN ARE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. MODEL DIFFERENCES RAISE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THEY WILL GET. AS SUCH KDBQ HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL AT SEEING SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH 00Z/01. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/01. AFT 06Z/01 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL AFFECT THE MIDWEST BUT SHOULD MISS EASTERN IOWA. LIGHT WINDS
MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 301741
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE FROM ALASKAN FIRES FAR MORE THICK THAN ANTICIPATED PER
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATION FROM THE OFFICE. HAVE ADDED HAZE IN
THE FORECAST AND TWEAKED DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS... BUT IF
THIS PERSISTS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT AND NECESSITATE
LOWERING HIGHS FURTHER WITH GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGS BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY IN EASTERN ND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN ARE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. MODEL DIFFERENCES RAISE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THEY WILL GET. AS SUCH KDBQ HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL AT SEEING SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH 00Z/01. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/01. AFT 06Z/01 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL AFFECT THE MIDWEST BUT SHOULD MISS EASTERN IOWA. LIGHT WINDS
MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE FROM ALASKAN FIRES FAR MORE THICK THAN ANTICIPATED PER
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATION FROM THE OFFICE. HAVE ADDED HAZE IN
THE FORECAST AND TWEAKED DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS... BUT IF
THIS PERSISTS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT AND NECESSITATE
LOWERING HIGHS FURTHER WITH GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGS BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY IN EASTERN ND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 1-5SM WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING WITH HAZY SKIES RESULTING FROM SMOKE FROM ALASKA AND
CANADA FIRES. STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST IA...
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND THIS
COULD BE CLOSE TO BRL TERMINAL SO HAVE KEPT MENTION ONLY AT
PROB30 ATTIM. WINDS TO BECOME N/NW 5-15 KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WHILE TURNING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMOKE FROM ALASKAN FIRES FAR MORE THICK THAN ANTICIPATED PER
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATION FROM THE OFFICE. HAVE ADDED HAZE IN
THE FORECAST AND TWEAKED DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS... BUT IF
THIS PERSISTS MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT AND NECESSITATE
LOWERING HIGHS FURTHER WITH GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGS BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY IN EASTERN ND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 1-5SM WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING WITH HAZY SKIES RESULTING FROM SMOKE FROM ALASKA AND
CANADA FIRES. STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST IA...
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND THIS
COULD BE CLOSE TO BRL TERMINAL SO HAVE KEPT MENTION ONLY AT
PROB30 ATTIM. WINDS TO BECOME N/NW 5-15 KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WHILE TURNING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 301137
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 1-5SM WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING WITH HAZY SKIES RESULTING FROM SMOKE FROM ALASKA AND
CANADA FIRES. STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST IA...
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND THIS
COULD BE CLOSE TO BRL TERMINAL SO HAVE KEPT MENTION ONLY AT
PROB30 ATTIM. WINDS TO BECOME N/NW 5-15 KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WHILE TURNING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301137
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 1-5SM WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING WITH HAZY SKIES RESULTING FROM SMOKE FROM ALASKA AND
CANADA FIRES. STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST IA...
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND THIS
COULD BE CLOSE TO BRL TERMINAL SO HAVE KEPT MENTION ONLY AT
PROB30 ATTIM. WINDS TO BECOME N/NW 5-15 KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WHILE TURNING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301137
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 1-5SM WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING WITH HAZY SKIES RESULTING FROM SMOKE FROM ALASKA AND
CANADA FIRES. STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST IA...
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND THIS
COULD BE CLOSE TO BRL TERMINAL SO HAVE KEPT MENTION ONLY AT
PROB30 ATTIM. WINDS TO BECOME N/NW 5-15 KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WHILE TURNING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 300851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE RECENT RAINFALL...FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE FAVORED AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW...SO HAVE KEPT
LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS AT IFR FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AT KMLI AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE RECENT RAINFALL...FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE FAVORED AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW...SO HAVE KEPT
LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS AT IFR FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AT KMLI AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 300851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE RECENT RAINFALL...FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE FAVORED AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW...SO HAVE KEPT
LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS AT IFR FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AT KMLI AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300458
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.

REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.      ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE RECENT RAINFALL...FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE FAVORED AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW...SO HAVE KEPT
LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS AT IFR FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AT KMLI AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300458
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.

REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.      ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING
EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE RECENT RAINFALL...FOG/STRATUS
WILL BE FAVORED AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW...SO HAVE KEPT
LOWEST VSBYS/CIGS AT IFR FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AT KMLI AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292032
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.

REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.      ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 292032
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.

REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.      ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292032
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KGYY WITH A TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NICE VORT MAX WAS
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN MANITOBA WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. SATELLITE/RADAR DATA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER WESTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

AFTER SUNSET...THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT
QUESTIONS THEN TURN TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TRENDS FROM THE RAP IS TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND HAVE IT EVOLVE INTO A LOOSE LINE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS THAT
SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN ALASKA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES.

REGARDLESS...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON
THE DECREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER 4 AM.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TIMES TONIGHT SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON TUESDAY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED TO SEE IF A DRY DAY COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MREF OUTPUT SUGGESTS PATTERN
DE-AMPLIFICATION STARTS TO TAKE PLACE THIS PERIOD ACRS THE CONUS...
BUT BROADENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STILL WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
WAVE DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND LOW TO MID MS RVR VALLEY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. INTERESTING THAT BULK OF THE 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WEST AND SOUTH WITH ELEVATED FORCING WING
THAT WOULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP/MCS-TYPE FEATURE
ALONG AND JUST OVER LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC RIBBON LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. SO MUCH SO THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA JUST
GETS CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SECONDARY RAINS OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO A HALF INCH BY WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HEAVY RAINS FALL
ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. WILL START TO TREND THIS
WAY IN THE FCST GRIDS WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAKING FOR SOME
CONFIDENCE. CLOUD COVER ODD THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LIGHTER RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ON
WED. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS THEN MORE BULLISH ON WESTWARD EXTENSION AND
STRENGTH OF LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX JUTTING OUT WESTWARD FROM THE GRT LKS
TO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...ENOUGH SO THAT IT MAINTAINS A DRY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF WHICH STILL DIGS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DOWN ACRS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED THTA-E DRAW TO PRODUCE SCTRD
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACRS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FOR NOW
WILL GO DRY FOR THU...BUT THROW A NOD TO THE EURO WITH POPS THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH NO PRECIP...WITH CLEAR
SKIES TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRI MORNING WITH FOG POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS AND HANDLING
THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A MORE FLATTENED WESTERLY REGIME AND MAIN
UPPER JET STREAK MIGRATION TO SOUTHERN CANADA MAKE FOR SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE
GFS HANGS UP A BOUNDARY ACRS NORTHERN MO WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EURO HAS LESS FOCUS BUT STILL
DEVELOPS POP-UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA/EXCEPT NW IL/ IN THE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY THAT BUILDS UP. MAY
KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...HIGHS STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN LOOK
TO USHER A STRONGER WAVE ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARY IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF SOUTHERLY
DIG BY THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BUILD POPS BACK UP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PRE-SYSTEM WARM DRAW HELPING TEMPS GET BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.      ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 291739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE 7
AM. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CANCELLED WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 291739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE 7
AM. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CANCELLED WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY 20Z/29. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/30 WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. IF
A SHRA/TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE. AFT 06Z/30 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW PATCHY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 291340
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
840 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE 7
AM. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CANCELLED WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS IN FG TIL 14Z/29. THEN VFR CONDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-
     JACKSON-SCOTT.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 291340
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
840 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE 7
AM. MOST OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CANCELLED WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS IN FG TIL 14Z/29. THEN VFR CONDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-
     JACKSON-SCOTT.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290949
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS IN FG TIL 14Z/29. THEN VFR CONDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290949
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDS IN FG TIL 14Z/29. THEN VFR CONDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290925
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290925
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES HAS INDICATED THE FOG
HAS WORSENED AND MANY LOCATIONS ARE SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES OF
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 9 AM. IF THE FOG DISSIPATES SOONER THAN
THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290844
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290844
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290844
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290844
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS THE VISIBILITIES WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS SITUATION. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. A WEAK VORT MAX IN WI WAS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS THERE WHILE A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS IN MANITOBA AND
DROPPING SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO AND THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN INCREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND NOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...AND NO CAP IN PLACE. THE HRRR INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE SEVERE HAILERS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH ACROSS MN AND WESTERN WI AIDED BY THE DECENT MANITOBA
WAVE AND COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SHEAR IS WEAK
AND SBCAPES ARE PROGGED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES
CAN WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED THAN AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT 11K FT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR NW CWA. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. THEN
WILL CARRY SMALL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NAM/GFS INDICATE SOME
LINGERING QPF WITH ANY WEAK VORT MAX IN THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WHILE ALSO LIMITING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE
THE REGION. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
AM FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOOKING PER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THIS ENERGY
WILL CREST THE WESTERN HEAT DOME NEXT 24 HOURS THEN HEAD SE AND
INTERACT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE (SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO KS) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS JUST
WHERE DOES THIS BATTLE ZONE AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AND HEAVY
RAIN SET UP. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70 TO
NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER CLOSER TO LAST FEW RUNS OF NAM. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND CONSEQUENTLY
WITH THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW... AND IS ALSO SLOWER WITH MAIN SURGE OF
MOISTURE FOCUSING MORE LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/WEST OF CWA. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING WOULD ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES WHERE THIS SETS UP AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY
FOR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GROUND IS SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH FROM
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST WEEK OR SO. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST FAR SOUTH.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD ANTICIPATE 24+ HRS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND EASTERLY FLOW.

THEN...OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH HI-RES
ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN CWA DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
TIMING HOLDS THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SNEAK IN A DRY AND SEASONABLE 4TH OF
JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290515
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290515
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290515
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290515
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING...FOG IS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR OR AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ANY GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BEYOND VCTS
WORDING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR PERIODS AT ALL SITES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAST
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT LIKELY THAT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED WITH PROB30 WORDING AT CID...MLI AND DBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ANY GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BEYOND VCTS
WORDING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR PERIODS AT ALL SITES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAST
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT LIKELY THAT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED WITH PROB30 WORDING AT CID...MLI AND DBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ANY GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BEYOND VCTS
WORDING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR PERIODS AT ALL SITES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAST
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT LIKELY THAT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED WITH PROB30 WORDING AT CID...MLI AND DBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282334
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING ANY GIVEN SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE BEYOND VCTS
WORDING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO LEAD TO MVFR AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR PERIODS AT ALL SITES
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAST
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT LIKELY THAT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED WITH PROB30 WORDING AT CID...MLI AND DBQ.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT CID AND
BRL...AND PERSIST UNTIL EVENING AT MLI AND BRL. WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR IF NOT IFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE TRENDS...BUT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PERIODS OF IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SITES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY MID MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR SE MN/SW WI...EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...WAS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
DSM WITH MSAS DATA SHOWING INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING ON
NORTHEAST MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY ELEVATED IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE 850 MB LOW. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...WHILE NOT FAR TO THE
WEST...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND NW MO WERE SOARING WELL
INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING..AND THEN POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AXIS OVER SE IA INTO NE MO WILL BE THE ZONE TO WATCH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND BUILDING SBCAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR SE IA...NE MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...WHERE A TORNADO WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED. A SECONDARY ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRENGTH OF STORMS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
KMSP AREA THAT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A HAIL THREAT
FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MUCAPE
CAN BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES E-SE TO EAST CENTRAL IL BY 12Z
MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW IN THE FEW HOURS LEADING
UP TO SUNRISE. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THIS
IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON TRENDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ESPECIALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WELL
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z...AND ANY
LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND DEPARTING CYCLONE ACRS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING. THEN EYES TURN
TOWARD THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY BUILD/HEATING EXPECT ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHEASTERN IA...MN INTO WI. MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR STORM THREAT TO THE NORTH AS WELL...BUT THERE STILL
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A HAILER EVEN IN THE DVN CWA MON AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS SUGGEST A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN ANY
CONVECTION BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THEN A WING OF
SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ROTATE DOWN OUT OF
MN/WEST WI AND INTO THE DVN CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH
THE MAIN VORT MAX ALOFT. AFTER THIS WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
THE REST OF TUE MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLUX BY
WESTERN GRT LKS RIDGING TO DEFLECT MUCH OF THE NEXT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP EVENT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OFF JUST TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA WED INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY THU. WILL TRIM POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONGOING WAVE TRAIN IN THE STEERING NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL STILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VORT MAX DOWN ACRS THE
REGION LATER THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI FOR A MORE DEFINED PRECIP CHC
WINDOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVERHEAD
FOR A BIT LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...FRI MAY BE A WET DAY.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z
ECMWF PROPAGATE THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD IN TIME FOR A WAKE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THAT COULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AS WELL AS A DRY
EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASINGLY MORE DOMINANT
WESTERLIES SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE
UPPER JET...WILL LOOK TO DIG SOME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
WARM SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SPOTTY AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE FRONTALLY FORCED BAND OF STORMS WOULD
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY WITH THIS
LATEST SOLUTIONS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS/MREF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT CID AND
BRL...AND PERSIST UNTIL EVENING AT MLI AND BRL. WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR IF NOT IFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE TRENDS...BUT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PERIODS OF IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SITES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY MID MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
ELSEWHERE...WITH NOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON
RADAR AND SOME SPOTTER REPORTS...THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE THE CEDAR RAPIDS
AREA AND ALSO OVER FAR SE IA AND NE MO. AT NOON...MSAS PRESSURE
FIELDS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IA WITH PRESSURE FALLS
OVER S CENTRAL INTO SE IA...INDICATING CONTINUED SE PROPAGATION AS
SUGGESTED BY 12Z MODELS.

WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG THE LOW/S
TRACK IN CENTRAL IA INTO N CENTRAL MO AND THE OVERLAPPING AXIS OF
BETTER SHEAR MOVING INTO THE SAME AREA...THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...THE ELEVATED STORMS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL MO WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A LIGHTNING RISK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
PROGRESSIVE STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS AND LOWERED
MAXES SOME DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN IA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO TIED TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT`S OF
GREATER THAN 1.30 INCHES. THERE WAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO THESE
STORMS WERE GARDEN VARIETY.

AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S SO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF
THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS I BELIEVE THIS TREND OF OVERDOING
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGING WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND IF EVEN MORE SUN IS OBSERVED THAN EXPECTED THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S. POPS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN CHANCE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IA...
WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 TO 45 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS ALSO COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AT 12K LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOTE...AS USUAL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-10 PM TIME FRAME.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS 50S/60S). THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE/UNSETTLED THE GOOD
NEWS FOR AREA FARMERS NEEDING SOME DRY WEATHER IS THAT THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW... AND
OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAINLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS)TO SOME AREAS OF MODERATE
(0.25-0.5+ INCH) RAIN AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
OF TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERALLY POOR RESOLUTION AND SMOOTHING OF THESE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE OPPORTUNITY TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL SEE LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND FROM DEPARTING LOW
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON... THEN MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING. LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT
AS THIS ENERGY AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTION OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY EVENING BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW.

THEN MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD DRYING ON EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
4THOF JULY... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT CID AND
BRL...AND PERSIST UNTIL EVENING AT MLI AND BRL. WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR IF NOT IFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE TRENDS...BUT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PERIODS OF IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SITES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY MID MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 281748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
ELSEWHERE...WITH NOON READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON
RADAR AND SOME SPOTTER REPORTS...THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN THE THE CEDAR RAPIDS
AREA AND ALSO OVER FAR SE IA AND NE MO. AT NOON...MSAS PRESSURE
FIELDS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IA WITH PRESSURE FALLS
OVER S CENTRAL INTO SE IA...INDICATING CONTINUED SE PROPAGATION AS
SUGGESTED BY 12Z MODELS.

WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG THE LOW/S
TRACK IN CENTRAL IA INTO N CENTRAL MO AND THE OVERLAPPING AXIS OF
BETTER SHEAR MOVING INTO THE SAME AREA...THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY OVER THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...THE ELEVATED STORMS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA...NE MO AND W CENTRAL MO WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A LIGHTNING RISK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
PROGRESSIVE STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS AND LOWERED
MAXES SOME DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SLOW WARMING THIS MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WING OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN IA. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO TIED TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT`S OF
GREATER THAN 1.30 INCHES. THERE WAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY SO THESE
STORMS WERE GARDEN VARIETY.

AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S SO ANOTHER
COMFORTABLE EARLY MORNING IN PROGRESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TODAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF
THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR
FAR NW COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS I BELIEVE THIS TREND OF OVERDOING
THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AT TIMES WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE HRRR MODEL
BRINGING WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...AND IF EVEN MORE SUN IS OBSERVED THAN EXPECTED THEN
SOME LOCATIONS MAY PUSH INTO THE MID 80S. POPS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING THEN CHANCE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/EMBEDDED LOW DIVES INTO NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IA...
WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 TO 45 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS ALSO COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IL AND NORTHEAST MO. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AT 12K LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
OVER 1.50 INCHES. NOTE...AS USUAL THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-10 PM TIME FRAME.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS 50S/60S). THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE/UNSETTLED THE GOOD
NEWS FOR AREA FARMERS NEEDING SOME DRY WEATHER IS THAT THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW... AND
OVERALL ANTICIPATE MAINLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS)TO SOME AREAS OF MODERATE
(0.25-0.5+ INCH) RAIN AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHALLENGE REMAINS
OF TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THE MODELS
GENERALLY POOR RESOLUTION AND SMOOTHING OF THESE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE OPPORTUNITY TO TRIM RAIN CHANCES AS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL SEE LIMITED FORCING WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND FROM DEPARTING LOW
EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY ON... THEN MOST MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING. LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM NORTHWEST WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT
AS THIS ENERGY AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTION OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE
EASTERN CWA INTO EARLY EVENING BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW.

THEN MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARD DRYING ON EASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLY DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BRING RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIPPLING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
4THOF JULY... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MIGRATING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT CID AND
BRL...AND PERSIST UNTIL EVENING AT MLI AND BRL. WEAK WIND FIELDS
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FALLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR IF NOT IFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE TRENDS...BUT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PERIODS OF IFR IN TEMPO GROUPS DUE TO FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SITES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY MID MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS





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