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000
FXUS63 KDVN 040839
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
EARLY TODAY. AS OF 2 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST...WHILE STILL FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER
TEENS SOUTHEAST.  MOST OF THE NORTHERN CWA IS CLEAR...WHILE THE
SOUTH HALF IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW EVENT TO SEE OCCASIONAL
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THE LAST SURGE OF MID CLOUDS IS ON THE WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR
SOUTH HALF AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE TODAY.

ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD...BREEZY...BUT RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
BY SUNRISE...WE SHOULD BE IN THE ZERO TO 10 RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WHICH WILL MAKE A DAY OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION
CONSISTENT FROM START TO FINISH AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH...LEAVING THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR ENTIRELY BY AFTERNOON.
THUS...TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY COLD AIR WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A VERY UN-MARCH LIKE LOW.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LOWS OF
ZERO SOUTH TO AROUND -10 NORTH...WHICH IS NEAR RECORDS.  THE SNOW
COVER IS WIDESPREAD...BUT NOT IDEAL FOR PERFECT COOLING...AS IT IS
LARGELY ICE COVERED WHERE IT EXISTS. I HAVE CHOSEN TO GO NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A GUIDANCE BLEND...WHEN NORMALLY WITH SNOW I WOULD UNDER
CUT IT. USING A DIURNAL CURVE PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLEND...AND
COMBINED WITH WINDS OF ABOUT 7 MPH LATE TONIGHT...WE ARE FORECASTING
WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -23 OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 VERY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS IS WITHIN THE ADVISORY RANGE OF -20...BUT IT IS A VERY LATE
ONSET OF THAT LEVEL OF COLD...AND CONFIDENCE ON THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND WINDS ARE NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME
FOR A MARGINAL WIND CHILL EVENT.  IF THERE IS GOOD NEWS IN THIS...BY
ALL LIKELIHOOD...TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST LOWS UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT
WINTER...AS OUR FORECAST WILL SEE US LOOSING OUR SNOW COVER IN THE
COMING DAYS!

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE STARTING FRIDAY AND RISE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S
AND EVEN NEAR 60 AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

A SERIES OF IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO TRANSVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  MOST OF THESE IMPULSES RESULT IN NO PRECIP IN OUR AREA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS WITH THESE IMPULSES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
THAT.  12Z RUN OF THE GEM THE WAVE ON SAT/SUN DIGGING DEEPER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODELS. 00Z RUNS OF THE MODEL... WAS LESS IMPRESSIVE
WITH THE CLIPPER.  NOW THERE IS LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IN OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL TO OUR NE IN WI.   DPROG OF THE GFS
SHOW THAT THE MODEL DOES HAVE A SW TREND WITH THE QPF.  SO WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME SORT OF POPS
OVERNIGHT.  THE POSITIVE TO THIS IS THAT ON SUNDAY...TEMPS ARE WELL
INTO THE 30S AND EVEN 40S....SO IF WE DO GET FROZEN PRECIP SAT NIGHT
IT SHOULD MELT.

NOW ON TO WHAT WE HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR...OUR FIRST REAL WARM
UP!  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THIS WARM UP.  WE START TO SEE A
LOT..IF NOT THE MAJORITY OF OUR SNOWPACK MELT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DEEP PILES LIKE THOSE IN PARKING
LOTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOSE THE GUSTINESS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 040839
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
EARLY TODAY. AS OF 2 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST...WHILE STILL FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER
TEENS SOUTHEAST.  MOST OF THE NORTHERN CWA IS CLEAR...WHILE THE
SOUTH HALF IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW EVENT TO SEE OCCASIONAL
OVERCAST CONDITIONS. THE LAST SURGE OF MID CLOUDS IS ON THE WAY FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR
SOUTH HALF AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SUNRISE TODAY.

ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD...BREEZY...BUT RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
BY SUNRISE...WE SHOULD BE IN THE ZERO TO 10 RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WHICH WILL MAKE A DAY OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION
CONSISTENT FROM START TO FINISH AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID
TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH...LEAVING THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR ENTIRELY BY AFTERNOON.
THUS...TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY COLD AIR WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A VERY UN-MARCH LIKE LOW.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LOWS OF
ZERO SOUTH TO AROUND -10 NORTH...WHICH IS NEAR RECORDS.  THE SNOW
COVER IS WIDESPREAD...BUT NOT IDEAL FOR PERFECT COOLING...AS IT IS
LARGELY ICE COVERED WHERE IT EXISTS. I HAVE CHOSEN TO GO NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A GUIDANCE BLEND...WHEN NORMALLY WITH SNOW I WOULD UNDER
CUT IT. USING A DIURNAL CURVE PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLEND...AND
COMBINED WITH WINDS OF ABOUT 7 MPH LATE TONIGHT...WE ARE FORECASTING
WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -23 OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 VERY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS IS WITHIN THE ADVISORY RANGE OF -20...BUT IT IS A VERY LATE
ONSET OF THAT LEVEL OF COLD...AND CONFIDENCE ON THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND WINDS ARE NOT HIGH...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME
FOR A MARGINAL WIND CHILL EVENT.  IF THERE IS GOOD NEWS IN THIS...BY
ALL LIKELIHOOD...TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST LOWS UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT
WINTER...AS OUR FORECAST WILL SEE US LOOSING OUR SNOW COVER IN THE
COMING DAYS!

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE STARTING FRIDAY AND RISE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S
AND EVEN NEAR 60 AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

A SERIES OF IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO TRANSVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  MOST OF THESE IMPULSES RESULT IN NO PRECIP IN OUR AREA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS WITH THESE IMPULSES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
THAT.  12Z RUN OF THE GEM THE WAVE ON SAT/SUN DIGGING DEEPER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODELS. 00Z RUNS OF THE MODEL... WAS LESS IMPRESSIVE
WITH THE CLIPPER.  NOW THERE IS LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IN OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL TO OUR NE IN WI.   DPROG OF THE GFS
SHOW THAT THE MODEL DOES HAVE A SW TREND WITH THE QPF.  SO WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...WE COULD END UP WITH SOME SORT OF POPS
OVERNIGHT.  THE POSITIVE TO THIS IS THAT ON SUNDAY...TEMPS ARE WELL
INTO THE 30S AND EVEN 40S....SO IF WE DO GET FROZEN PRECIP SAT NIGHT
IT SHOULD MELT.

NOW ON TO WHAT WE HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR...OUR FIRST REAL WARM
UP!  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THIS WARM UP.  WE START TO SEE A
LOT..IF NOT THE MAJORITY OF OUR SNOWPACK MELT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DEEP PILES LIKE THOSE IN PARKING
LOTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOSE THE GUSTINESS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 040534
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOSE THE GUSTINESS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 040534
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOSE THE GUSTINESS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 040534
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KCID/KDBQ. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOSE THE GUSTINESS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 032349
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING
IN FROM CENTRAL IOWA...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z-07Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 032349
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING
IN FROM CENTRAL IOWA...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z-07Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 032349
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING
IN FROM CENTRAL IOWA...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z-07Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 032129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 032129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG LLJ RAN THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO KTOP WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
30S AND HIGH FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

QUIET AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S.
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE. ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW SITES NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. 850-500MB FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY FRI AFTN AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO 540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH A CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING
LIGHT PRECIP TO THE MIDWEST ON SUN...THE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GEM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH ITS
SOLUTION. OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER SO ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP FOR NOW.

TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER. CONSENSUS BLEND OF MID/UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S FROM NE-TO-
SW ACROSS THE DVN CWA IS THE GOING FORECAST WITH A RATHER LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE ON THE
PRECIPICE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W/SW. ECMWF IS PUSHING FOR
50S ON SUN/MON...GFS IS STILL HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9  IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 031935
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
135 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD FRONT ARRIVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. AS SUCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 3 PM AND THEN START
FALLING. AN UPDATE FOR LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 031935
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
135 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD FRONT ARRIVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. AS SUCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK BETWEEN NOW AND 3 PM AND THEN START
FALLING. AN UPDATE FOR LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 031726
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 031726
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 031726
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 031726
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AFT 00Z/04
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. AFT 09Z/04 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 031132
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH AROUND
15Z...AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END. AS THE FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW END...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ENDING THE FREEZING THREAT...AND HELPING TO IMPROVE
REMAINING ICING CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS BRINGING IN THE MILD AIR
WILL BLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS...THEN AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...NORTHWEST AT 18 TO 26 KTS THIS EVENING. IFR TO MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ESTABLISH THEMSELVES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 031132
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH AROUND
15Z...AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END. AS THE FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW END...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ENDING THE FREEZING THREAT...AND HELPING TO IMPROVE
REMAINING ICING CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS BRINGING IN THE MILD AIR
WILL BLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS...THEN AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...NORTHWEST AT 18 TO 26 KTS THIS EVENING. IFR TO MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ESTABLISH THEMSELVES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 031132
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH AROUND
15Z...AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END. AS THE FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW END...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ENDING THE FREEZING THREAT...AND HELPING TO IMPROVE
REMAINING ICING CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS BRINGING IN THE MILD AIR
WILL BLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS...THEN AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...NORTHWEST AT 18 TO 26 KTS THIS EVENING. IFR TO MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ESTABLISH THEMSELVES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 031132
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
532 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH AROUND
15Z...AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END. AS THE FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW END...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...ENDING THE FREEZING THREAT...AND HELPING TO IMPROVE
REMAINING ICING CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS BRINGING IN THE MILD AIR
WILL BLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 KTS...THEN AS A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES...NORTHWEST AT 18 TO 26 KTS THIS EVENING. IFR TO MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ESTABLISH THEMSELVES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 030911
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 030911
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 030911
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 030911
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PAIRED WITH LIFT FROM A 120 KT JET STREAK
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA IS PROVIDING A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THIS BAND BISECT OUR CWA...AND HAS HEAVY DENDRITIC SNOW
FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX NEAR
INTERSTATE 80...AND FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILD SWING
IN PCPN TYPES WAS EXPECTED...YET IS PERSONALLY AMAZING TO WATCH
TAKE PLACE OUT THE WINDOW OF AN OFFICE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN APPEARS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP AND
HRRR...WHICH ARE BOTH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. IF THERE IS A
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL HANDLING THIS WELL...THE GEM SEEMS ACCURATE
ENOUGH. SO...WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOWING ITS HAND ON
RADAR...WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE AMOUNTS TAKE PLACE THROUGH
15Z...POSSIBLY 16Z...BEFORE ENDING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. WITHIN
THIS EVENT...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE AROUND
2 INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND
ENDING THIS MORNING. ALONG INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE QUAD
CITIES...AND IOWA CITY...WE WILL LIKELY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
THROUGH 6 AM BETWEEN LARGE FLAKES AND SLEET...WITH ANY LIGHT PCPN
FALLING AND FREEZING RAIN. A SLIPPERY MIX NO DOUBT. FARTHER
SOUTH...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE BAND OF FREEZING RAINS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTH AS THE MESOSCALE BAND SOLIDIFIED.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 8 AM...AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...AS
THE MIX ENDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND MORE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING OF DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ONLY PATCHY
FLURRIES...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. THUS...A DRY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH COLD ADVECTION REALLY
KICKING IN BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGIT NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 SOUTHEAST. THERE IS NO DOUBT
THAT SPRING AIR CAME CLOSE TO OUR CWA TODAY...BUT IT LOST THE
BATTLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE THE WIND CHILLS FOR
MIDWEEK.  COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.  THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO.  AFTER THIS IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY IN THE FORECAST!

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  ON THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER US.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY UNSEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AM.  EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...ANY WIND WITH THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS THAT WILL REACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA.

NOW TO THE MORE HAPPY NEWS...A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRAJECTORIES OF
THE AIR MOVING INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MORE OFF OF THE CONTINENTAL
US.  THIS MEANS WARMER...MORE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE EURO IS ESPECIALLY WARM FOR JUST OUT OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE...GFS AND ECMWF H5 FLOW IS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS LEADS ME TO HAVE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 030549
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT STILL ON TRACK OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
INITIALLY SNOW BUT EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH HALF AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
(AROUND 0.1 INCH TO POSSIBLY NEAR 0.2 INCH) WILL FAVOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
BAND PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL... WHICH IF
OCCURS COULD RESULT IN NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMS GREATER THAN 1 INCH TO POSSIBLY AROUND 2 INCHES. ANY ICING
STILL LOOKS AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH MAINLY
SOUTH HALF.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 030549
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT STILL ON TRACK OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
INITIALLY SNOW BUT EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH HALF AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
(AROUND 0.1 INCH TO POSSIBLY NEAR 0.2 INCH) WILL FAVOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
BAND PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL... WHICH IF
OCCURS COULD RESULT IN NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMS GREATER THAN 1 INCH TO POSSIBLY AROUND 2 INCHES. ANY ICING
STILL LOOKS AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH MAINLY
SOUTH HALF.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 030549
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT STILL ON TRACK OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
INITIALLY SNOW BUT EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH HALF AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
(AROUND 0.1 INCH TO POSSIBLY NEAR 0.2 INCH) WILL FAVOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
BAND PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL... WHICH IF
OCCURS COULD RESULT IN NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMS GREATER THAN 1 INCH TO POSSIBLY AROUND 2 INCHES. ANY ICING
STILL LOOKS AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH MAINLY
SOUTH HALF.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 030549
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT STILL ON TRACK OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
INITIALLY SNOW BUT EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH HALF AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
(AROUND 0.1 INCH TO POSSIBLY NEAR 0.2 INCH) WILL FAVOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
BAND PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL... WHICH IF
OCCURS COULD RESULT IN NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMS GREATER THAN 1 INCH TO POSSIBLY AROUND 2 INCHES. ANY ICING
STILL LOOKS AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH MAINLY
SOUTH HALF.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TRANSITION TO RAIN
SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY AREAS
OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 030403
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1003 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT STILL ON TRACK OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
INITIALLY SNOW BUT EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH HALF AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
(AROUND 0.1 INCH TO POSSIBLY NEAR 0.2 INCH) WILL FAVOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
BAND PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL... WHICH IF
OCCURS COULD RESULT IN NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMS GREATER THAN 1 INCH TO POSSIBLY AROUND 2 INCHES. ANY ICING
STILL LOOKS AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH MAINLY
SOUTH HALF.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH SLEET/SNOW TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 030403
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1003 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WINTRY MIXED PCPN EVENT STILL ON TRACK OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
INITIALLY SNOW BUT EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH HALF AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN
(AROUND 0.1 INCH TO POSSIBLY NEAR 0.2 INCH) WILL FAVOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL MESOSCALE
BAND PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL... WHICH IF
OCCURS COULD RESULT IN NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMS GREATER THAN 1 INCH TO POSSIBLY AROUND 2 INCHES. ANY ICING
STILL LOOKS AROUND A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH MAINLY
SOUTH HALF.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH SLEET/SNOW TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 030003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH SLEET/SNOW TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 030003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH SLEET/SNOW TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 030003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH SLEET/SNOW TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH






000
FXUS63 KDVN 030003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS THOUGH VARY ON
STRENGTH OF WINDS 1500-2000 FT AGL (30-40 KTS) AND WITH EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION ATTIM BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY AM EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR WITH A SHOWERY WINTRY MIX OF PCPN ACROSS THE
AREA. PCPN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH TYPES FAVORING MAINLY SLEET/
SNOW NORTH OF I-80 WITH SLEET/SNOW TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN SOUTH WHERE MINOR GLAZING OF ICE ACCUM POSSIBLE. PCPN TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY WITH MVFR TO
POSSIBLY AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AFTN AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 19-23Z AND MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST IA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...UTTECH






000
FXUS63 KDVN 022139
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
339 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/03 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE ROCKIES.
AFT 06Z/03 CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH SNPL.
AFT 12Z/03 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
KBRL/KMLI DURING THE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. ALTHOUGH NOT
FORECAST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...UTTECH






000
FXUS63 KDVN 022139
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
339 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC HIGH BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF THE 850MB ARCTIC FRONT IN TEXAS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER ILLINOIS WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEAK STORM
SYSTEM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE AS MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THUS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW.

AS EVEN WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...A
MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE
AREA THAT SLOWLY MOVES UP TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 SHOULD SEE SNOW DEVELOP OR CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THE SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. DURING
THIS TRANSITION A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL SEE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE DEVELOP.

AS FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID DAY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY COOLS.

HEADLINES FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONE
REASON IS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

ANY ICE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO RAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.

AS FOR SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE SEEN ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THIS NEW SNOW/SLEET WILL MELT
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OVERVIEW...UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A SPLIT FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THIS FLOW WILL BRING MORE
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MIDWEST AS IT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. A LARGE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST...BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS VERY DRY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG NEGATIVE 1000-500 MB THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AND WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP FROM NEAR 540 DAM TUE EVENING TO 516 DAM
BY LATE WED AFTN. AT THE SFC...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 MPH
IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS WITH LOW 20S FAR SOUTHERN CWA (~25 F DEGREES BELOW AVG).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY WEST OF E IOWA AND PARALLEL THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WHICH MEANS SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE.
ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 BELOW ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR BURLINGTON TO
CLOSE TO -10 F IN THE N/NW DVN CWA. FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY BE COLDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL COLD AND QUIET ON THU WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE.
850-500MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WHICH WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO -4 C BY
FRI AFTN AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS TO ~540 DAM. SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS ON FRI.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL PATTERN IS FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING. THE GFS
HAS 30S/40S WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 40S/50S. SUPERBLEND IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE THIS FAR OUT WITH UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND THE
TYPICAL NE-TO-SW GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/03 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE ROCKIES.
AFT 06Z/03 CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH SNPL.
AFT 12Z/03 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
KBRL/KMLI DURING THE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. ALTHOUGH NOT
FORECAST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 5...

MOLINE.........-13 IN 1960
CEDAR RAPIDS...-12 IN 1960
DUBUQUE........-9 IN 1978
BURLINGTON.....-13 IN 1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 021733
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FORECAST LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK. SOME 4SM VSBYS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
TO GET MUCH WORSE THAN THAT. TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN FRIGID THIS
MORNING AND WITH THE WIND...SOME BELOW 0 WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/03 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE ROCKIES.
AFT 06Z/03 CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH SNPL.
AFT 12Z/03 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
KBRL/KMLI DURING THE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. ALTHOUGH NOT
FORECAST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 021733
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FORECAST LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK. SOME 4SM VSBYS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
TO GET MUCH WORSE THAN THAT. TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN FRIGID THIS
MORNING AND WITH THE WIND...SOME BELOW 0 WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/03 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE ROCKIES.
AFT 06Z/03 CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH SNPL.
AFT 12Z/03 THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA AT
KBRL/KMLI DURING THE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN. ALTHOUGH NOT
FORECAST...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 021221 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FORECAST LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK. SOME 4SM VSBYS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
TO GET MUCH WORSE THAN THAT. TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN FRIGID THIS
MORNING AND WITH THE WIND...SOME BELOW 0 WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TODAY UNTIL SHORTLY INTO MAR 3. A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES
STARTING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO PL THEN TO
FZRA DURING THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE FZRA COULD BE MODERATE NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS COULD FALL TO IFR AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP. CID AND DBQ WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
MUCH IF ANY FZRA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FOR THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z ON MAR 3.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 021221 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FORECAST LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK. SOME 4SM VSBYS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT THIS
TO GET MUCH WORSE THAN THAT. TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN FRIGID THIS
MORNING AND WITH THE WIND...SOME BELOW 0 WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TODAY UNTIL SHORTLY INTO MAR 3. A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES
STARTING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO PL THEN TO
FZRA DURING THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE FZRA COULD BE MODERATE NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS COULD FALL TO IFR AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP. CID AND DBQ WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
MUCH IF ANY FZRA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FOR THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z ON MAR 3.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 021129 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
529 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE TODAY UNTIL SHORTLY INTO MAR 3. A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES
STARTING BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO PL THEN TO
FZRA DURING THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE FZRA COULD BE MODERATE NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS COULD FALL TO IFR AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP. CID AND DBQ WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
MUCH IF ANY FZRA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FOR THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z ON MAR 3.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 020912
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD MIDDAY THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AM... SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED
WARM MOIST ADVECTION... WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05










000
FXUS63 KDVN 020912
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD MIDDAY THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AM... SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED
WARM MOIST ADVECTION... WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05









000
FXUS63 KDVN 020912
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD MIDDAY THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AM... SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED
WARM MOIST ADVECTION... WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05










000
FXUS63 KDVN 020912
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HIGH DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA TONIGHT.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE NASTY WINTRY MIX
FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE HAVE LEAD TO DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTING QPF AMOUNTS.
OVERALL SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT QPF VALUES
LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

EXPECT A NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
AS MOISTURE. ONSET OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. H85 LLJ CONVERGES OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
AREA. WITH WAA OCCURRING MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNPL AND
QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO PL AND FZRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I80. THIS LLJ CONVERGENCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. BY
THIS TIME THE EXTENDED FORECASTER BEGINS THEIR PERIOD. DO NOT
THINK THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...THIS
MEANS THAT MOSTLY SN WILL FALL WITH POSSIBLY SOME PL. ACCUMULATION
OF SN AND PL LOOK LIKELY IN THIS AREA. THE AM COMMUTE WILL BE
MESSY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS MIX.

QPF REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST. HPC QPF IS UNDER
0.1 INCHES FROM 6Z TO 12Z. I CAN SEE THIS OCCURRING...HOWEVER WITH
THE STRONG LLJ I COULD ALSO SEE OUR AMOUNTS BE TOO LOW WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. OF THIS IS THE CASE...IT COULD
GET VERY MESSY FOR THE AM COMMUTE TOMORROW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMS ARE
CURRENTLY 0.05 OF AN INCH WITH SNOW ACROSS FAR N ZONES UNDER 2
INCHES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE THE AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS
AT THIS TIME DECIDED TO SEND A QUICK EMAIL BRIEFING TO OUR PARTNERS
ABOUT THIS...AS WE ARE UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS FOR AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ANS SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE PATCHY
RAIN...SNOW OR EVEN DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING 32 OR ABOVE NEAR BURLINGTON BY
7 TO 8 AM...THE QUAD CITIES...BY AROUND 10 AM...AND NEAR DUBUQUE BY
NOON. IN ANY CASE...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER UNTIL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 32...THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WILL LIKELY LEAD AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND
LONG WAVE RADIATION FROM THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE DAY. THIS IS A VAGUE
SCIENTIFIC EXPLANATION...THAT RESULTS IN A HAZARD OF ICY
ROADS...THAT SHOULD NOT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING VERY LONG. AN
ADVISORY MAY YET BE REQUIRED...BUT WITH QPF SO LOW...UNDER 0.20 FOR
THE TOTAL EVENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MAY FALL MORE INTO AN SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EVENT.  WE HAVE SENT OUT INFORMATION TO EMERGENCY
MANAGERS CONCERNING THIS POSSIBLE EVENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS BEYOND A
TYPICAL HWO.

THE LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED QPF IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LLJ
VEERING EAST OF THE CWA QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHUNTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE INTO WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY MID
MORNING...WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR POURING INTO IOWA AS WELL.
THUS...MOST OF THE RAINS WILL END BY MID MORNING IN OUR CWA...AND
TOTAL DAYTIME QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 0.20 NORTHEAST.

BY AFTERNOON...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP COLD AIR
BACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE...FLURRIES...OR SPRINKLES DURING THIS INITIAL
FEW HOURS OF COLD ADVECTION. WINDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30...AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE ZERO TO -18.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE TEENS WEDNESDAY...THEN
FALL TO THE BITTERLY COLD -10 TO ZERO RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TO BRING
WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25...IN OTHER WORDS...WE MAY SEE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY NEEDED IN MARCH. AFTER A COLD THURSDAY IN THE TEENS AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...MILD AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL
MODELS TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PACIFIC AIR SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALOFT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF IOWA.
THUS...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR HINTS OF SPRING...FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS WHERE YOU SHOULD FIND HOPE.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD MIDDAY THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AM... SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED
WARM MOIST ADVECTION... WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05









000
FXUS63 KDVN 020543
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD MIDDAY THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AM... SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED
WARM MOIST ADVECTION... WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 020543
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD MIDDAY THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AM... SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED
WARM MOIST ADVECTION... WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 020543
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD MIDDAY THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AM... SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED
WARM MOIST ADVECTION... WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 020543
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD MIDDAY THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY EVENING AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AM... SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED
WARM MOIST ADVECTION... WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 012355
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR VSBYS LATER TNGT AND EARLY MONDAY AM IF WINDS WERE TO DIMINISH
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTIM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID AM THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE E/SE 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LOOKING
OUT JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 012355
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR VSBYS LATER TNGT AND EARLY MONDAY AM IF WINDS WERE TO DIMINISH
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTIM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID AM THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE E/SE 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LOOKING
OUT JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 012355
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR VSBYS LATER TNGT AND EARLY MONDAY AM IF WINDS WERE TO DIMINISH
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTIM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID AM THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE E/SE 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LOOKING
OUT JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 012355
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR VSBYS LATER TNGT AND EARLY MONDAY AM IF WINDS WERE TO DIMINISH
MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTIM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MID AM THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE E/SE 5-10 KTS DURING THE AFTN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LOOKING
OUT JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN TO THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 012130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY DUSK...CONTINUING THEN INTO MID
DAY MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS









000
FXUS63 KDVN 012130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SEASONALLY COLD
AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS FILTERS IN. EJECTING ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
SHOULD ARRIVE IN UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AND OVERRIDE OUR CURRENT
COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A FAST AND OPEN WAVE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. VERIFICATION SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY A FEW
HOURS TOO FAST ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA MINS AND MAX TEMPERATURES
MOST LOCATION SHOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES WITH MOST SPOTS POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING TOWARD
MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED BY AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES FOR LATER SHIFTS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10+ KTS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE. AREAS WHERE WINDS FALL TO
LESS THAN 5 KTS IN WEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF AREA MAY DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN
LOWS AT LEAST 3 DEGREES COLDER DUE TO OUR SNOW COVER. ISOLATED BELOW
ZERO READINGS MAY OCCUR THERE...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.

MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 1
AND 5 PM. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL IMPACT HIGHS
FOR LATER SHIFTS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...ASSESSING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS PERIOD...SEEMS WITH THE OPEN WAVE/TROF
ALOFT ALONG WITH STOUT FLOW THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN/JETS AT ALL
LEVELS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. STILL VIGOROUS AND FED
SEASONABLY HIGH/180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ PWATS OF 0.60 TO 0.80 OF
AN INCH...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL
STILL GET FROM 0.20 TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF QPF DESPITE THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP AND IT/S DURATION/EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CWA.
WITH SATURATION AND DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE WILL KEEP MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY DRY. BUT STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF
40-50 KTS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY IMPRESSIVE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP
ACRS AND THEN EAST OF THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM 06Z-18Z TUE...PRECIP
SHOULD REALLY BLOSSOM ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO TUE MORNING. ASSESSING A PLETHORA OF FCST SOUNDINGS AND EVOLVING
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE
TO USE AS A FCST...THE LATEST THINKING SUGGESTS WARM WEDGE ALOFT
ABOVE H85 MB TO BUILD QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD IA TO
MONMOUTH IL LINE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE BEFORE THE SFC LAYER WARMS ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ALL RAIN
PROFILES. MAINLY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80...BUT THE I80 CORRIDOR
TO BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10Z TUE.
AREAS NORTH OF I80 MAY GET FROM A HALF INCH...TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
WET SNOW ACCUM BY 12Z TUE MORNING. SFC TEMPS STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM...TEMPS TO OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 BY 10-12Z.

TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET PLUME TO CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
GLAZE POSSIBLE FROM I80 TO JUST NORTH OF HWY 30 BY MID MORNING
BEFORE THOSE AREAS TOO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING SFC
LAYER AND RISING SFC DPTS. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY HANG ON TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND MAYBE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL GO WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES OF WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 FROM 12Z-18Z TUE. THUS
SYSTEM SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM 1-3 INCHES NORTH OF I80
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 30. THE MODERATE RAIN
BAND MAY BE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY 18-19Z TUE
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM/S PROGRESSION AND ARRIVAL OF A TYPE
OF DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ACRS THE CWA
JUST TO THE LEE OF THE PASSING SFC CYCLONE MAY GUST OVER 25 MPH TUE
MORNING...BUT DRIVE SFC TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. MAY STILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME ADVECTION
FOG OVER THE SNOWPACK IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WANES OR BEFORE IT
BEGINS LATE MON NIGHT AND ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT BARRELS IT/S WAY
EASTWARD THRU THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE SURGE OF NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH A WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION ACRS THE FCST AREA. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH OR
HIGHER BY TUE EVENING. TOP-DOWN COOLING REALLY ACCELERATES ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT AGAIN AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT BULK
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EXITING OUT OF THE CWA OR LIGHT/THANKS ALSO
TO ACCELERATED TOP-DOWN DRYING/ FOR JUST MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE LINGERING PRECIP SWITCHES
BACK TO SNOW. TUE NIGHT...WINDY WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD ADVECTION
BUT DRY....LOWS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE WED. ALL IN
ALL...HEADLINES FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE MON NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TUE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE FINALIZED AND ISSUED IN THE
COMING SHIFTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WED A RAW WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE TEENS EVEN WITH SOME INSOLATION...HIGH CLOUDS OFF OVERRUNNING
SNOWS ACRS MO/SOUTHERN IL MAY BLANKET THE SOUTHERN CWA ON WED. CLEAR
AND VERY COLD UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...MUCH OF THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL OF SUB-ZERO LOWS AND EVEN
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I80 BY THU MORNING IF SFC
WINDS CAN MAINTAIN 5-10 MPH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES FLATTEN SOME BUT
STILL SHUNT THE MAIN CLIPPER PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DVN
CWA BY WEEKS END. THE NET RESULT IS THE REGION WILL LOOK TO GET
ENGULFED BY THE WARM DRAW SIDE OF ANY CLIPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GRT LKS BY FRI...HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 BY
LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
MILDER AND MAINLY DRY SIDE OF THE CLIPPER TRACK INTO SUNDAY.  ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY DUSK...CONTINUING THEN INTO MID
DAY MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS










000
FXUS63 KDVN 011713
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1113 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OVERALL A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST THAT SNOW BAND COULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
TODAY. AS SUCH INCREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH OF WHERE THEY WERE
BEFORE. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN THE SAME AS EARLIER. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SEEMS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS AM. OTHER THAN THAT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY DUSK...CONTINUING THEN INTO MID
DAY MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 011244 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OVERALL A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST THAT SNOW BAND COULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
TODAY. AS SUCH INCREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH OF WHERE THEY WERE
BEFORE. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN THE SAME AS EARLIER. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SEEMS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS AM. OTHER THAN THAT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST MID
MORNING. FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS HAS LEAD TO
CIGS AND VSBY ISSUES ALONG WITH SOME FZFG. A CLOUD DECK HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...UNDER IT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES THROUGH THE FG
WANES. CID HAS BEEN REPORTING FLURRIES THIS AM AND SHOULD NOT LAST
MUCH AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS AND CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 011244 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OVERALL A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST THAT SNOW BAND COULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
TODAY. AS SUCH INCREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH OF WHERE THEY WERE
BEFORE. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN THE SAME AS EARLIER. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SEEMS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS AM. OTHER THAN THAT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST MID
MORNING. FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS HAS LEAD TO
CIGS AND VSBY ISSUES ALONG WITH SOME FZFG. A CLOUD DECK HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...UNDER IT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES THROUGH THE FG
WANES. CID HAS BEEN REPORTING FLURRIES THIS AM AND SHOULD NOT LAST
MUCH AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS AND CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 011244 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OVERALL A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST THAT SNOW BAND COULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
TODAY. AS SUCH INCREASED POPS FURTHER NORTH OF WHERE THEY WERE
BEFORE. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN THE SAME AS EARLIER. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SEEMS TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
THIS AM. OTHER THAN THAT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST MID
MORNING. FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS HAS LEAD TO
CIGS AND VSBY ISSUES ALONG WITH SOME FZFG. A CLOUD DECK HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...UNDER IT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES THROUGH THE FG
WANES. CID HAS BEEN REPORTING FLURRIES THIS AM AND SHOULD NOT LAST
MUCH AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS AND CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 011142 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST MID
MORNING. FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS HAS LEAD TO
CIGS AND VSBY ISSUES ALONG WITH SOME FZFG. A CLOUD DECK HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...UNDER IT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES THROUGH THE FG
WANES. CID HAS BEEN REPORTING FLURRIES THIS AM AND SHOULD NOT LAST
MUCH AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS AND CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 011142 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST MID
MORNING. FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS HAS LEAD TO
CIGS AND VSBY ISSUES ALONG WITH SOME FZFG. A CLOUD DECK HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...UNDER IT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING. ONCE THIS DECK MOVES THROUGH THE FG
WANES. CID HAS BEEN REPORTING FLURRIES THIS AM AND SHOULD NOT LAST
MUCH AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS AND CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 010857
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF BRL
TAF SITE THROUGH SUNDAY AM AND THUS LEFT OUT MENTION THOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT ALL SITES. ANTICIPATE CIGS LIFTING
TO HIGH MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SUNDAY PM WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST LATE PM
INTO EARLY EVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 010857
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF BRL
TAF SITE THROUGH SUNDAY AM AND THUS LEFT OUT MENTION THOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT ALL SITES. ANTICIPATE CIGS LIFTING
TO HIGH MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SUNDAY PM WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST LATE PM
INTO EARLY EVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 010857
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF BRL
TAF SITE THROUGH SUNDAY AM AND THUS LEFT OUT MENTION THOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT ALL SITES. ANTICIPATE CIGS LIFTING
TO HIGH MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SUNDAY PM WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST LATE PM
INTO EARLY EVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 010857
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS YESTERDAY WERE
REPORTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REGIONAL RADAR THIS
MORNING DEPICTS MOST OF THE SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WITH
LIGHT FLURRIES FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE AND ASOS STATIONS
REPORTED LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IA AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND ALLEVIATE POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF SNOW
TODAY AS A SECOND WAVE TRANSVERSES THE FLOW. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVERALL.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEPER TROF WAS LOCATED OVER W KS AND
SW NE. THIS VORT IS QUICKLY ADVECTING THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARDS THE
AREA. SINCE MOST OF THE VORT IS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...OVERALL
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO A
SMALL AREA. THE MAJORITY OF RUNS TAKES THIS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH HRRR AND WRFARW AND WRFNMM
MODEL REFLECTIVITY...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR
SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SE ZONES AND
CITIES LIKE MQB. HPC QPF SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS...AS SUCH LOWERED THE QPF. THIS GIVES MQB ANOTHER 0.6 INCHES
OF SNOW TODAY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE
CWA BY 18Z.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...WE STILL END UP WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WENT
WITH RAWBLEND FOR THE HIGHS TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WE
SHOULD END UP WITH SUN FOR THE SUNSET.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE MIXED PCPN TYPE EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENT IS LIKELY TO CONTAIN A FULL
SHIFT FROM LIGHT SNOW TO MODERATE SNOW...TO SLEET...TO FREEZING
RAIN...TO RAIN...THEN FINALLY A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. WHILE THIS SOUNDS RATHER SCARY AT FACE VALUE WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDS...IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING TO RAIN
SHOULD BE A QUICK ONE DURING THE 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY
PERIOD. THUS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICING WILL BE LIMITED AND ARE MOST
LIKELY GOING TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL PHASE OF PCPN SHOULD BE SNOW AT ANY LOCATION...AND WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD AROUND 3 AM...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD.
IN THIS TIME TIME FRAME...THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO WARM
ALOFT...RESULTING IN SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW...THEN CHANGING TO A
LIGHT MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TOWARD 6 AM. THUS...IT APPEARS
THAT A LIKELY ADVISORY WOULD BEGIN NO EARLIER THAN 06Z...AND COULD
HOLD OFF TIL 3 AM. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH...ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND HIGHWAY 20 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 9 AM...HOWEVER...IN ANY ONE LOCATION...THE GRADUAL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN TO AROUND 5 HOURS OR LESS...AND IN THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE LONGEST...THE WINDOW IS
FURTHER LIMITED BY ANY RAIN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS...I FORESEE AN ADVISORY RUNNING FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ON A
MARGINAL EVENT...AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE THIS COME OUT ON FUTURE
SHIFTS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS
VERY LIGHT...AS DRY AIR AGGRESSIVELY SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. IN
FACT...I HAVE REMOVED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALL TOGETHER...AND LOWERED
AFTERNOON TO CHANCE AREA WIDE.  QPF OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT APPEARS
TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.50 RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY SHOULD SURGE ABOVE FREEZING...THIS WILL NOT REMOVE OUR SNOW
PACK...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THIS SNOW PACK...SO NO
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WARM UP TUESDAY...THE COLD WILL BE BACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST IS CONFIDENTLY DRY...AND
COLD AS THE GUIDANCE BLEND INITIALIZED WITH.   FRIDAY STILL
INDICATES A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A CLIPPER
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD BE WARM
SECTORED...AND SEE TWO RELATIVELY MILD DAYS( 30S TO LOWER 40S) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF BRL
TAF SITE THROUGH SUNDAY AM AND THUS LEFT OUT MENTION THOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT ALL SITES. ANTICIPATE CIGS LIFTING
TO HIGH MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SUNDAY PM WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST LATE PM
INTO EARLY EVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...05







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