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000
FXUS63 KDVN 221117
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST TONIGHT IN
THE PLAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED BOTH IN THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...AND IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR OK IS
IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST AS IT IS A REFLECTION OF THE FORCING THAT
WILL IMPACT OUR CWA. LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ON THE INCREASE EARLY TODAY. THE RESULT HAS BEEN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS BANDS OF SPRINKLES SINCE MID EVENING LAST NIGHT. THUS
FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN IOWA
WITH ROCKFORD IL REPORTING 0.01.  THIS SUPPORTS OUR LOW POP FORECAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAYS MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING IN TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
RAIN. IN A BROAD SENSE...THE FIRST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SWEEP UP FROM MISSOURI BY MID MORNING...LASTING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING INTO A LULL FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
MUCH MORE STRONGLY FORCED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORCING WILL AFFECT
OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE
OKLAHOMA SURFACE LOW...AND BRINGING THAT UP OVER OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD HELP INCREASE CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT
IN OUR REGION...AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. THANKFULLY...WE ARE WARM ENOUGH ALREADY FOR ALL
RAIN TO BE TAKING PLACE...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
DAY ALOFT...AND NOT COLD ADVECT AT ALL AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL TOWARD
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...I EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
SINCE DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE RAIN PERIODS TODAY...I WILL
LEAVE POPS HIGH ONCE THE INITIAL RAIN BAND MOVES IN TODAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE MILD TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
HOLDING OF MOST OF THE CWA AS OF 2 AM. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
EAST...WILL ONLY DRAW IN MORE MILD AIR THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGHS
APPEAR DESTINED FOR THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S FAR SOUTH UNDER
THE DAMP CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW WORKING OVERHEAD....AND RAINFALL LIKELY
CONTINUING UNTIL LATE WHEN THE DRY SLOT WILL FINALLY LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION...WE WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...AND MAY HOLD IN THE 40S
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE RAINFALL
TAKING PLACE...AND THE DRY SLOTS LATE ARRIVAL...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE GRIDS. IF IT DOES OCCUR...THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD LARGELY BE 0.05 TO 0.20...BUT TONIGHTS ROBUST DIFFLUENT
FORCING WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 0.25
TO 0.50.  THUS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD END
IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 RANGE EASILY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TUESDAY...00Z RUN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING
OCCLUDED...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO ROLL JUST NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA BY MIDDAY. IN-WRAPPING DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO
REALLY EAT AWAY AT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE AREA...
AND FRESHLY DRAWN UP MILD AIRMASS TO MAKE FOR THE MILDEST HIGH TEMPS
OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WITH MANY AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WILL
NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LLVL CYCLONIC CONVERGENT FLOW INDUCING SOME TEMPORARY
DENSE FOG TUE MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 BEFORE THE LOW COMPLEX
GYRATES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL PROFILES OF ACCEPTED FCST
SOUNDING MODELS/THE ECMWF/ DO NOT TOP DOWN COOL TO RAIN-SNOW MIX TIL
EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN-WRAPPING LIGHTER PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST TO HAVE TROUBLE NOT GETTING ERODED BY
DRIER SUBSIDENCE SLOT JUTTING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO MAKE IT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TUE
NIGHT. SFC LOWS STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD BY WED MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S...EVEN MILDER TO THE EAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ASSESSING THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
AND UPPER JET BALANCES PULSING THROUGH THE MOST LIKELY UPPER AIR
PATTERN/TROF PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE CWA TO BE MAINLY DRY ON
WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS WHATEVER CYCLOGENESIS AND PHASING TAKES
PLACE ACRS THE WESTERN GULF STATES AND CYCLONE PROPAGATION UP THE TN
TO EASTERN OH RVR VALLEYS. THUS THE XMAS STORM TO LIKELY TAKE PLACE
ACRS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GRT LKS. THE 00Z
GFS AGAIN A FURTHER WEST OUTLIER AND WOULD PRODUCE 2-3+ INCH SNOWFALL
ACRS THE EASTERN I80 CORRIDOR PORTION OF THE DVN CWA BY WED EVENING.
THINK EVEN THE LATEST 00Z RUN ECMWF A BIT TOO FAR WEST AND THE OLDER
RUNS APPEAR MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOOKING AT IT/S
UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND L/W PHASING PROCESS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LIGHT
SNOW...BUT STILL SEE THIS DAY BEING NOT MUCH OF A DEAL. HIGH TEMPS
MAY EVEN GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA
ESPECIALLY WITH SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST AND DAY STAYS MAINLY
PRECIP-FREE. RIDGING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY/GRT
LKS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...BUT PROGRESSES EAST ENOUGH FOR
RETURN FLOW BOOSTING TEMPS TO AROUND 40 BY LATE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.
THE NEW EURO MOS HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AGAIN PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...WITH PHASING AND HANDLING OF THE
NEXT LINGERING PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT THE CWA GETS WARM SECTORED ON THE 26TH.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND TEMP
ADVECTION IF THE EURO IS RIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH WITH NO SNOW COVER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT....
MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ANYWAY. LLVL COLD
CONVEYOR INTERACTING WITH WHAT EVER DEF ZONE PRECIP MANAGES TO
SWIPE DOWN AND CLIP THE CWA COULD LEAD TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN INTO SAT. CHILL DOWN BACK TO
NORMAL FRO SAT AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLIES ADJUST FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND ANY ADDITIONAL WAVE EJECTING OUT ALONG WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED DEF ZONE PRECIP SWATH STAYS MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA. BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO
POSSIBLE GET CLIPPED BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD IOWA
TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA RACES TOWARD EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST
DURING THE PERIOD...AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR DURING THE MID MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN BANDS LIFT NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI. RAIN AND
LIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...BEFORE A
MORE MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT SPREADS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE...AND TO KEEP TAFS
SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE...I HAVE ELECTED TO SHOW THE WEATHER AS LIGHT
RAIN VS A MIX OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. OVERNIGHT CIGS IN EASTERN IOWA
MAY DIP TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND 500 FT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 221117
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST TONIGHT IN
THE PLAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED BOTH IN THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...AND IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR OK IS
IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST AS IT IS A REFLECTION OF THE FORCING THAT
WILL IMPACT OUR CWA. LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ON THE INCREASE EARLY TODAY. THE RESULT HAS BEEN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS BANDS OF SPRINKLES SINCE MID EVENING LAST NIGHT. THUS
FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN IOWA
WITH ROCKFORD IL REPORTING 0.01.  THIS SUPPORTS OUR LOW POP FORECAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAYS MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING IN TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
RAIN. IN A BROAD SENSE...THE FIRST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SWEEP UP FROM MISSOURI BY MID MORNING...LASTING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING INTO A LULL FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
MUCH MORE STRONGLY FORCED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORCING WILL AFFECT
OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE
OKLAHOMA SURFACE LOW...AND BRINGING THAT UP OVER OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD HELP INCREASE CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT
IN OUR REGION...AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. THANKFULLY...WE ARE WARM ENOUGH ALREADY FOR ALL
RAIN TO BE TAKING PLACE...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
DAY ALOFT...AND NOT COLD ADVECT AT ALL AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL TOWARD
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...I EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
SINCE DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE RAIN PERIODS TODAY...I WILL
LEAVE POPS HIGH ONCE THE INITIAL RAIN BAND MOVES IN TODAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE MILD TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
HOLDING OF MOST OF THE CWA AS OF 2 AM. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
EAST...WILL ONLY DRAW IN MORE MILD AIR THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGHS
APPEAR DESTINED FOR THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S FAR SOUTH UNDER
THE DAMP CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW WORKING OVERHEAD....AND RAINFALL LIKELY
CONTINUING UNTIL LATE WHEN THE DRY SLOT WILL FINALLY LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION...WE WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...AND MAY HOLD IN THE 40S
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE RAINFALL
TAKING PLACE...AND THE DRY SLOTS LATE ARRIVAL...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE GRIDS. IF IT DOES OCCUR...THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD LARGELY BE 0.05 TO 0.20...BUT TONIGHTS ROBUST DIFFLUENT
FORCING WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 0.25
TO 0.50.  THUS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD END
IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 RANGE EASILY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TUESDAY...00Z RUN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING
OCCLUDED...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO ROLL JUST NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA BY MIDDAY. IN-WRAPPING DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO
REALLY EAT AWAY AT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE AREA...
AND FRESHLY DRAWN UP MILD AIRMASS TO MAKE FOR THE MILDEST HIGH TEMPS
OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WITH MANY AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WILL
NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LLVL CYCLONIC CONVERGENT FLOW INDUCING SOME TEMPORARY
DENSE FOG TUE MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 BEFORE THE LOW COMPLEX
GYRATES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL PROFILES OF ACCEPTED FCST
SOUNDING MODELS/THE ECMWF/ DO NOT TOP DOWN COOL TO RAIN-SNOW MIX TIL
EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN-WRAPPING LIGHTER PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST TO HAVE TROUBLE NOT GETTING ERODED BY
DRIER SUBSIDENCE SLOT JUTTING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO MAKE IT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TUE
NIGHT. SFC LOWS STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD BY WED MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S...EVEN MILDER TO THE EAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ASSESSING THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
AND UPPER JET BALANCES PULSING THROUGH THE MOST LIKELY UPPER AIR
PATTERN/TROF PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE CWA TO BE MAINLY DRY ON
WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS WHATEVER CYCLOGENESIS AND PHASING TAKES
PLACE ACRS THE WESTERN GULF STATES AND CYCLONE PROPAGATION UP THE TN
TO EASTERN OH RVR VALLEYS. THUS THE XMAS STORM TO LIKELY TAKE PLACE
ACRS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GRT LKS. THE 00Z
GFS AGAIN A FURTHER WEST OUTLIER AND WOULD PRODUCE 2-3+ INCH SNOWFALL
ACRS THE EASTERN I80 CORRIDOR PORTION OF THE DVN CWA BY WED EVENING.
THINK EVEN THE LATEST 00Z RUN ECMWF A BIT TOO FAR WEST AND THE OLDER
RUNS APPEAR MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOOKING AT IT/S
UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND L/W PHASING PROCESS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LIGHT
SNOW...BUT STILL SEE THIS DAY BEING NOT MUCH OF A DEAL. HIGH TEMPS
MAY EVEN GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA
ESPECIALLY WITH SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST AND DAY STAYS MAINLY
PRECIP-FREE. RIDGING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY/GRT
LKS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...BUT PROGRESSES EAST ENOUGH FOR
RETURN FLOW BOOSTING TEMPS TO AROUND 40 BY LATE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.
THE NEW EURO MOS HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AGAIN PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...WITH PHASING AND HANDLING OF THE
NEXT LINGERING PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT THE CWA GETS WARM SECTORED ON THE 26TH.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND TEMP
ADVECTION IF THE EURO IS RIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH WITH NO SNOW COVER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT....
MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ANYWAY. LLVL COLD
CONVEYOR INTERACTING WITH WHAT EVER DEF ZONE PRECIP MANAGES TO
SWIPE DOWN AND CLIP THE CWA COULD LEAD TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN INTO SAT. CHILL DOWN BACK TO
NORMAL FRO SAT AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLIES ADJUST FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND ANY ADDITIONAL WAVE EJECTING OUT ALONG WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED DEF ZONE PRECIP SWATH STAYS MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA. BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO
POSSIBLE GET CLIPPED BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD IOWA
TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA RACES TOWARD EASTERN
IOWA TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST
DURING THE PERIOD...AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR DURING THE MID MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN BANDS LIFT NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI. RAIN AND
LIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...BEFORE A
MORE MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT SPREADS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE...AND TO KEEP TAFS
SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE...I HAVE ELECTED TO SHOW THE WEATHER AS LIGHT
RAIN VS A MIX OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. OVERNIGHT CIGS IN EASTERN IOWA
MAY DIP TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND 500 FT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220931
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST TONIGHT IN
THE PLAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED BOTH IN THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...AND IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR OK IS
IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST AS IT IS A REFLECTION OF THE FORCING THAT
WILL IMPACT OUR CWA. LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ON THE INCREASE EARLY TODAY. THE RESULT HAS BEEN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS BANDS OF SPRINKLES SINCE MID EVENING LAST NIGHT. THUS
FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN IOWA
WITH ROCKFORD IL REPORTING 0.01.  THIS SUPPORTS OUR LOW POP FORECAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAYS MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING IN TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
RAIN. IN A BROAD SENSE...THE FIRST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SWEEP UP FROM MISSOURI BY MID MORNING...LASTING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING INTO A LULL FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
MUCH MORE STRONGLY FORCED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECING WILL AFFECT
OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE
OKLAHOMA SURFACE LOW...AND BRINGING THAT UP OVER OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD HELP INCREASE CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT
IN OUR REGION...AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. THANKFULLY...WE ARE WARM ENOUGH ALREADY FOR ALL
RAIN TO BE TAKING PLACE...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
DAY ALOFT...AND NOT COLD ADVECT AT ALL AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL TOWARD
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...I EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
SINCE DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE RAIN PERIODS TODAY...I WILL
LEAVE POPS HIGH ONCE THE INITIAL RAIN BAND MOVES IN TODAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE MILD TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
HOLDING OF MOST OF THE CWA AS OF 2 AM. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
EAST...WILL ONLY DRAW IN MORE MILD AIR THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGHS
APPEAR DESTINED FOR THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S FAR SOUTH UNDER
THE DAMP CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW WORKING OVERHEAD....AND RAINFALL LIKELY
CONTINUING UNTIL LATE WHEN THE DRY SLOT WILL FINALLY LIFT THROUGHT
THE REGION...WE WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...AND MAY HOLD IN THE 40S
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE RAINFALL
TAKING PLACE...AND THE DRY SLOTS LATE ARRIVAL...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE GRIDS. IF IT DOES OCCUR...THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD LARGELY BE 0.05 TO 0.20...BUT TONIGHTS ROBUST DIFFLUENT
FORCING WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 0.25
TO 0.50.  THUS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD END
IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 RANGE EASILY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TUESDAY...00Z RUN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING
OCCLUDED...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO ROLL JUST NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA BY MIDDAY. IN-WRAPPING DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO
REALLY EAT AWAY AT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE AREA...
AND FRESHLY DRAWN UP MILD AIRMASS TO MAKE FOR THE MILDEST HIGH TEMPS
OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WITH MANY AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WILL
NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LLVL CYCLONIC CONVERGENT FLOW INDUCING SOME TEMPORARY
DENSE FOG TUE MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 BEFORE THE LOW COMPLEX
GYRATES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL PROFILES OF ACCEPTED FCST
SOUNDING MODELS/THE ECMWF/ DO NOT TOP DOWN COOL TO RAIN-SNOW MIX TIL
EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN-WRAPPING LIGHTER PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST TO HAVE TROUBLE NOT GETTING ERODED BY
DRIER SUBSIDENCE SLOT JUTTING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO MAKE IT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TUE
NIGHT. SFC LOWS STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD BY WED MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S...EVEN MILDER TO THE EAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ASSESSING THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
AND UPPER JET BALANCES PULSING THROUGH THE MOST LIKELY UPPER AIR
PATTERN/TROF PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE CWA TO BE MAINLY DRY ON
WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS WHATEVER CYCLOGENESIS AND PHASING TAKES
PLACE ACRS THE WESTERN GULF STATES AND CYCLONE PROPAGATION UP THE TN
TO EASTERN OH RVR VALLEYS. THUS THE XMAS STORM TO LIKELY TAKE PLACE
ACRS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GRT LKS. THE 00Z
GFS AGAIN A FURTHER WEST OUTLIER AND WOULD PRODUCE 2-3+ INCH SNOWFALL
ACRS THE EASTERN I80 CORRIDOR PORTION OF THE DVN CWA BY WED EVENING.
THINK EVEN THE LATEST 00Z RUN ECMWF A BIT TOO FAR WEST AND THE OLDER
RUNS APPEAR MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOOKING AT IT/S
UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND L/W PHASING PROCESS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LIGHT
SNOW...BUT STILL SEE THIS DAY BEING NOT MUCH OF A DEAL. HIGH TEMPS
MAY EVEN GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA
ESPECIALLY WITH SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST AND DAY STAYS MAINLY
PRECIP-FREE. RIDGING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY/GRT
LKS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...BUT PROGRESSES EAST ENOUGH FOR
RETURN FLOW BOOSTING TEMPS TO AROUND 40 BY LATE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.
THE NEW EURO MOS HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AGAIN PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...WITH PHASING AND HANDLING OF THE
NEXT LINGERING PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT THE CWA GETS WARM SECTORED ON THE 26TH.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND TEMP
ADVECTION IF THE EURO IS RIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH WITH NO SNOW COVER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT....
MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ANYWAY. LLVL COLD
CONVEYOR INTERACTING WITH WHAT EVER DEF ZONE PRECIP MANAGES TO
SWIPE DOWN AND CLIP THE CWA COULD LEAD TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN INTO SAT. CHILL DOWN BACK TO
NORMAL FRO SAT AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLIES ADJUST FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND ANY ADDITIONAL WAVE EJECTING OUT ALONG WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED DEF ZONE PRECIP SWATH STAYS MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA. BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO
POSSIBLE GET CLIPPED BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODERATE SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO KEEP VIS AOA 3 MILES OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT CID/DBQ AND LOW END MVR MLI/BRL AHEAD
OF STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. AFTER 22/12Z...AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS TOWARD EVENING MAY FALL TO LIFR/VLIFR WITH
FOG AND DRIZZLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. BRIEF PERIODS OF NON-
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THAT ARE UNABLE
TO BE IDENTIFIED THIS FAR OUT. AT/BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE
SUGGESTED MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY WITH
FALLEN PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220931
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST TONIGHT IN
THE PLAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED BOTH IN THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...AND IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR OK IS
IMPORTANT TO OUR FORECAST AS IT IS A REFLECTION OF THE FORCING THAT
WILL IMPACT OUR CWA. LOW LEVELS ARE MOIST...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ON THE INCREASE EARLY TODAY. THE RESULT HAS BEEN ALMOST
CONTINUOUS BANDS OF SPRINKLES SINCE MID EVENING LAST NIGHT. THUS
FAR...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN IOWA
WITH ROCKFORD IL REPORTING 0.01.  THIS SUPPORTS OUR LOW POP FORECAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAYS MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING IN TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF
RAIN. IN A BROAD SENSE...THE FIRST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SWEEP UP FROM MISSOURI BY MID MORNING...LASTING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE ENTERING INTO A LULL FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
MUCH MORE STRONGLY FORCED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECING WILL AFFECT
OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE
OKLAHOMA SURFACE LOW...AND BRINGING THAT UP OVER OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD HELP INCREASE CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE TONIGHT
IN OUR REGION...AND HIGHER QPF TOTALS NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. THANKFULLY...WE ARE WARM ENOUGH ALREADY FOR ALL
RAIN TO BE TAKING PLACE...AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
DAY ALOFT...AND NOT COLD ADVECT AT ALL AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL TOWARD
TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...I EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR POSSIBLY INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
SINCE DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE RAIN PERIODS TODAY...I WILL
LEAVE POPS HIGH ONCE THE INITIAL RAIN BAND MOVES IN TODAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY QUITE MILD TODAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
HOLDING OF MOST OF THE CWA AS OF 2 AM. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
EAST...WILL ONLY DRAW IN MORE MILD AIR THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGHS
APPEAR DESTINED FOR THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S FAR SOUTH UNDER
THE DAMP CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW WORKING OVERHEAD....AND RAINFALL LIKELY
CONTINUING UNTIL LATE WHEN THE DRY SLOT WILL FINALLY LIFT THROUGHT
THE REGION...WE WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD...AND MAY HOLD IN THE 40S
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE RAINFALL
TAKING PLACE...AND THE DRY SLOTS LATE ARRIVAL...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE GRIDS. IF IT DOES OCCUR...THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD LARGELY BE 0.05 TO 0.20...BUT TONIGHTS ROBUST DIFFLUENT
FORCING WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 0.25
TO 0.50.  THUS...WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD END
IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 RANGE EASILY.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TUESDAY...00Z RUN MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING
OCCLUDED...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO ROLL JUST NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA BY MIDDAY. IN-WRAPPING DRY SLOT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO
REALLY EAT AWAY AT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE AREA...
AND FRESHLY DRAWN UP MILD AIRMASS TO MAKE FOR THE MILDEST HIGH TEMPS
OF THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WITH MANY AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WILL
NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LLVL CYCLONIC CONVERGENT FLOW INDUCING SOME TEMPORARY
DENSE FOG TUE MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 BEFORE THE LOW COMPLEX
GYRATES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL PROFILES OF ACCEPTED FCST
SOUNDING MODELS/THE ECMWF/ DO NOT TOP DOWN COOL TO RAIN-SNOW MIX TIL
EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. IN-WRAPPING LIGHTER PRECIP
SHIELD FROM THE NORTHWEST TO HAVE TROUBLE NOT GETTING ERODED BY
DRIER SUBSIDENCE SLOT JUTTING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO MAKE IT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TUE
NIGHT. SFC LOWS STILL NOT ALL THAT COLD BY WED MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S...EVEN MILDER TO THE EAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ASSESSING THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
AND UPPER JET BALANCES PULSING THROUGH THE MOST LIKELY UPPER AIR
PATTERN/TROF PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE CWA TO BE MAINLY DRY ON
WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS WHATEVER CYCLOGENESIS AND PHASING TAKES
PLACE ACRS THE WESTERN GULF STATES AND CYCLONE PROPAGATION UP THE TN
TO EASTERN OH RVR VALLEYS. THUS THE XMAS STORM TO LIKELY TAKE PLACE
ACRS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GRT LKS. THE 00Z
GFS AGAIN A FURTHER WEST OUTLIER AND WOULD PRODUCE 2-3+ INCH SNOWFALL
ACRS THE EASTERN I80 CORRIDOR PORTION OF THE DVN CWA BY WED EVENING.
THINK EVEN THE LATEST 00Z RUN ECMWF A BIT TOO FAR WEST AND THE OLDER
RUNS APPEAR MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOOKING AT IT/S
UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND L/W PHASING PROCESS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LIGHT
SNOW...BUT STILL SEE THIS DAY BEING NOT MUCH OF A DEAL. HIGH TEMPS
MAY EVEN GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA
ESPECIALLY WITH SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST AND DAY STAYS MAINLY
PRECIP-FREE. RIDGING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY/GRT
LKS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...BUT PROGRESSES EAST ENOUGH FOR
RETURN FLOW BOOSTING TEMPS TO AROUND 40 BY LATE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.
THE NEW EURO MOS HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AGAIN PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...WITH PHASING AND HANDLING OF THE
NEXT LINGERING PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT THE CWA GETS WARM SECTORED ON THE 26TH.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND TEMP
ADVECTION IF THE EURO IS RIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH WITH NO SNOW COVER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT....
MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ANYWAY. LLVL COLD
CONVEYOR INTERACTING WITH WHAT EVER DEF ZONE PRECIP MANAGES TO
SWIPE DOWN AND CLIP THE CWA COULD LEAD TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN INTO SAT. CHILL DOWN BACK TO
NORMAL FRO SAT AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLIES ADJUST FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND ANY ADDITIONAL WAVE EJECTING OUT ALONG WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED DEF ZONE PRECIP SWATH STAYS MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA. BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO
POSSIBLE GET CLIPPED BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODERATE SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO KEEP VIS AOA 3 MILES OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT CID/DBQ AND LOW END MVR MLI/BRL AHEAD
OF STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. AFTER 22/12Z...AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS TOWARD EVENING MAY FALL TO LIFR/VLIFR WITH
FOG AND DRIZZLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. BRIEF PERIODS OF NON-
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THAT ARE UNABLE
TO BE IDENTIFIED THIS FAR OUT. AT/BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE
SUGGESTED MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY WITH
FALLEN PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220535
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 245 PM CST...A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS LINGERING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FOCUS IS ON POPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE LATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT
MORE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FAR WEST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. AMERICAN MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS MIX MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD PEAK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FORCING WEAKENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT. THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST GETTING SAMPLED BY
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY BECOMES
STRONGER PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN AND SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING AT BEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK HAS BEEN VARYING
CONSIDERABLY. TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE IT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE
BETTER FORCING AND SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHAT THE MODELS DO REASONABLY AGREE UPON IS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON FRIDAY
UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODERATE SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO KEEP VIS AOA 3 MILES OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT CID/DBQ AND LOW END MVR MLI/BRL AHEAD
OF STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. AFTER 22/12Z...AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS TOWARD EVENING MAY FALL TO LIFR/VLIFR WITH
FOG AND DRIZZLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. BRIEF PERIODS OF NON-PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THAT ARE UNABLE TO BE IDENTIFIED
THIS FAR OUT. AT/BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE SUGGESTED MONDAY EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY WITH FALLEN PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220535
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 245 PM CST...A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS LINGERING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FOCUS IS ON POPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE LATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT
MORE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FAR WEST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. AMERICAN MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS MIX MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD PEAK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FORCING WEAKENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT. THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST GETTING SAMPLED BY
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY BECOMES
STRONGER PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN AND SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING AT BEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK HAS BEEN VARYING
CONSIDERABLY. TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE IT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE
BETTER FORCING AND SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHAT THE MODELS DO REASONABLY AGREE UPON IS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON FRIDAY
UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODERATE SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO KEEP VIS AOA 3 MILES OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT CID/DBQ AND LOW END MVR MLI/BRL AHEAD
OF STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. AFTER 22/12Z...AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS TOWARD EVENING MAY FALL TO LIFR/VLIFR WITH
FOG AND DRIZZLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. BRIEF PERIODS OF NON-PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THAT ARE UNABLE TO BE IDENTIFIED
THIS FAR OUT. AT/BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE SUGGESTED MONDAY EVENING
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY WITH FALLEN PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220001
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 245 PM CST...A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS LINGERING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FOCUS IS ON POPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE LATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT
MORE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FAR WEST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. AMERICAN MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS MIX MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD PEAK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FORCING WEAKENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT. THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST GETTING SAMPLED BY
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY BECOMES
STRONGER PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN AND SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING AT BEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK HAS BEEN VARYING
CONSIDERABLY. TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE IT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE
BETTER FORCING AND SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHAT THE MODELS DO REASONABLY AGREE UPON IS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON FRIDAY
UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODERATE SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO KEEP VIS AOA 5 MILES TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AFTER 22/12Z...AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
BRIEF PERIODS OF NON-PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
THAT ARE UNABLE TO BE IDENTIFIED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220001
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 245 PM CST...A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS LINGERING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FOCUS IS ON POPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE LATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT
MORE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FAR WEST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. AMERICAN MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS MIX MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD PEAK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FORCING WEAKENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT. THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST GETTING SAMPLED BY
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY BECOMES
STRONGER PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN AND SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING AT BEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK HAS BEEN VARYING
CONSIDERABLY. TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE IT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE
BETTER FORCING AND SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHAT THE MODELS DO REASONABLY AGREE UPON IS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON FRIDAY
UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODERATE SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO KEEP VIS AOA 5 MILES TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AFTER 22/12Z...AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
BRIEF PERIODS OF NON-PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
THAT ARE UNABLE TO BE IDENTIFIED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220001
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 245 PM CST...A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS LINGERING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FOCUS IS ON POPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE LATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT
MORE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FAR WEST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. AMERICAN MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS MIX MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD PEAK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FORCING WEAKENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT. THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST GETTING SAMPLED BY
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY BECOMES
STRONGER PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN AND SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING AT BEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK HAS BEEN VARYING
CONSIDERABLY. TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE IT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE
BETTER FORCING AND SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHAT THE MODELS DO REASONABLY AGREE UPON IS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON FRIDAY
UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODERATE SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO KEEP VIS AOA 5 MILES TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AFTER 22/12Z...AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
BRIEF PERIODS OF NON-PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
THAT ARE UNABLE TO BE IDENTIFIED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220001
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 245 PM CST...A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS LINGERING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FOCUS IS ON POPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE LATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT
MORE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FAR WEST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. AMERICAN MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS MIX MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD PEAK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FORCING WEAKENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT. THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST GETTING SAMPLED BY
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY BECOMES
STRONGER PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN AND SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING AT BEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK HAS BEEN VARYING
CONSIDERABLY. TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE IT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE
BETTER FORCING AND SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHAT THE MODELS DO REASONABLY AGREE UPON IS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON FRIDAY
UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODERATE SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO KEEP VIS AOA 5 MILES TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AFTER 22/12Z...AREAS OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL HOURS WORTH OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
BRIEF PERIODS OF NON-PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES
THAT ARE UNABLE TO BE IDENTIFIED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212102
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 245 PM CST...A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS LINGERING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FOCUS IS ON POPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE LATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT
MORE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FAR WEST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. AMERICAN MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS MIX MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD PEAK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FORCING WEAKENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT. THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST GETTING SAMPLED BY
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY BECOMES
STRONGER PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN AND SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING AT BEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK HAS BEEN VARYING
CONSIDERABLY. TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE IT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE
BETTER FORCING AND SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHAT THE MODELS DO REASONABLY AGREE UPON IS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON FRIDAY
UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OFF AND
ON -RA/DZ BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDBQ AND POSSIBLE KCID FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212102
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 245 PM CST...A BRISK SOUTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BOOSTING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WAS LINGERING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FOCUS IS ON POPS...FOG POTENTIAL...AND
EVENTUALLY PRECIP TYPE LATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT
MORE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE IN THE FAR WEST. THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. AMERICAN MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. THIS MIX MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS COULD PICK UP 0.1-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD PEAK ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTH MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

FORCING WEAKENS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING
ALOFT. THUS RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AND PROBABLY END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MAIN ENERGY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST GETTING SAMPLED BY
UPPER AIR FLIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY BECOMES
STRONGER PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INITIALLY PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN AND SLOWLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING AT BEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY. SINCE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK HAS BEEN VARYING
CONSIDERABLY. TRENDS WITH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE IT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER TIME. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE
BETTER FORCING AND SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY.

WHAT THE MODELS DO REASONABLY AGREE UPON IS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BASED ON WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY MODEL
TRENDS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON FRIDAY
UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OFF AND
ON -RA/DZ BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDBQ AND POSSIBLE KCID FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211917
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MORE OF THE FOG ADVISORY WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
IN SOUTHEAST MIXING SFC FLOW OF 8-12 MPH. REST OF THE REMAINING
COUNTIES ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE CANCELED
EARLY AND WILL WATCH FOG TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING BUT SFC
TEMPS CWA WIDE ABOVE 32 EXCEPT RIGHT AT FREEZING ALONG THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR EAST OF DBQ INTO NW IL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW GRADIENT IN FULL SWING ACRS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LLVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOCAL 88D WAS INDICATING MORE
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE MOVING EAST ACRS THE CWA...BUT ALMOST CWA-WIDE SFC
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT EVEN ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR...MAYBE A BIT
MORE LINGERING POTENTIAL THRU 6 AM AROUND THE FREEPORT AREA IN NW
IL. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS INDICATING DENSE FOG IMPROVEMENT ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE ONGOING ADVISORY AND WILL DROP THAT
SECTION WITH 4AM FCST PACKAGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING WEAK VORT MOVING EAST TOWARD NORTHERN IL WITH TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGE BULGE SET TO SLIDE ACRS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL THIS
MORNING...BUT STRONGER WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TODAY...WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
OF 7-12 KTS EXPECT MIXING AND REDUCTION OF THE DENSE FOG...REST OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO LINGERING
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE TO WALK OUT OF THE CWA/ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF/
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BUT AS WAVE ALOFT DEPARTS THE CWA MY BE
MAINLY DRY BY MIDDAY IF NOT EARLIER. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF MO...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC LAYER RH/DPTS MUCH OF THE CWA MAY REACH
40 DEGREES OR MILDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WAVE/VORT COMPLEX
NOTED ABOVE...ROLLING ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOOK TO
KICK UP SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN/IF MOISTURE
LAYER CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH/ ACRS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AFTER MID
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 FROM LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT RATHER BRISK SOUTHERLY
BL FLOW TO MIX OUT ANY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ONGOING LOW MOIST FLOW AND WAA TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IF NOT MILDER IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT...THUS NO
CHC FOR ANY MIX OR FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CONTINUING
UPTICK IN APPROACHING FORCING OFF THE DIGGING WAVE JUST TO THE
WEST...ALONG WITH DEEPENING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES/PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO 0.50 TO 0.60+ AFTER MIDNIGHT/...TO FUEL
INCREASING RAIN DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD. BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL STILL LOOK TO REAMING WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH DAWN MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL WILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS THAT GET MEASURABLE AT 0.05 OR LESS BY
12Z MON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

OUR FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS LARGELY CONSISTENT FROM ITS
EARLIER ISSUANCES...BUT OBVIOUS TO ANYONE FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD IS
THAT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM HAS FINALLY LEFT THE HOUSE. NO MODELS
WITHIN THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA HAVE RETAINED THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS/WINTER STORM
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS GONE...AS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON TUESDAY APPEARS MORE DELAYED AND LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE EASTERLY
PATH TO THE SECONDARY LOW AND FAR LESS OF A NOTABLE EVENT ANYWHERE.

GETTING BACK TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OFFERED IN THIS PERIOD ON
NEARLY EVERY MODELS AS THE INITIAL STRONG NORTHERN WAVE DROPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
AND OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD RAIN IS IN THE
OFFING AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND BELOW ARE BOTH ABOVE FREEZING AND
SATURATED...THUS SNOW SHOULD NOT SURVIVE THAT LAYER UNTIL WE ARE
WELL ON THE BACKSIDE AND COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE EAST AS SOME HAD INDICATED
EARLIER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT TO PRECIPITATE OUT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH THE GFS HAS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE GFS HAS STRONG WAA FORCING BY MORNING WEDNESDAY...LASTING
THROUGH VERY EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOTTING OUR CWA...LIKELY WITH
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO FOLLOW. THE EC IS SLOWER...AND HAS A SIMILAR
ROUND OF FORCING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  SINCE
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN EACH
SCENARIO...I HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS...WITH CATEGORICAL CENTERED MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WET PERIOD BUT WINDS SOUTH WINDS
BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST SHOULD NOT CREATE A WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WIND EVENT IN THE
MIDWEST. THUS FOR OUR CWA...WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST BY OUR OFFICE...AND THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH ON
GUSTS...SO WHILE BREEZY...WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT HAVE STARVED THIS LOW OF BOTH
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY REPRESENT TWO
MORE MODERATE DAYS BEFORE COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OFF AND
ON -RA/DZ BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDBQ AND POSSIBLE KCID FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211917
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MORE OF THE FOG ADVISORY WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
IN SOUTHEAST MIXING SFC FLOW OF 8-12 MPH. REST OF THE REMAINING
COUNTIES ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE CANCELED
EARLY AND WILL WATCH FOG TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING BUT SFC
TEMPS CWA WIDE ABOVE 32 EXCEPT RIGHT AT FREEZING ALONG THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR EAST OF DBQ INTO NW IL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW GRADIENT IN FULL SWING ACRS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LLVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOCAL 88D WAS INDICATING MORE
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE MOVING EAST ACRS THE CWA...BUT ALMOST CWA-WIDE SFC
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT EVEN ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR...MAYBE A BIT
MORE LINGERING POTENTIAL THRU 6 AM AROUND THE FREEPORT AREA IN NW
IL. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS INDICATING DENSE FOG IMPROVEMENT ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE ONGOING ADVISORY AND WILL DROP THAT
SECTION WITH 4AM FCST PACKAGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING WEAK VORT MOVING EAST TOWARD NORTHERN IL WITH TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGE BULGE SET TO SLIDE ACRS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL THIS
MORNING...BUT STRONGER WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TODAY...WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
OF 7-12 KTS EXPECT MIXING AND REDUCTION OF THE DENSE FOG...REST OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO LINGERING
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE TO WALK OUT OF THE CWA/ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF/
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BUT AS WAVE ALOFT DEPARTS THE CWA MY BE
MAINLY DRY BY MIDDAY IF NOT EARLIER. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF MO...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC LAYER RH/DPTS MUCH OF THE CWA MAY REACH
40 DEGREES OR MILDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WAVE/VORT COMPLEX
NOTED ABOVE...ROLLING ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOOK TO
KICK UP SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN/IF MOISTURE
LAYER CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH/ ACRS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AFTER MID
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 FROM LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT RATHER BRISK SOUTHERLY
BL FLOW TO MIX OUT ANY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ONGOING LOW MOIST FLOW AND WAA TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IF NOT MILDER IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT...THUS NO
CHC FOR ANY MIX OR FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CONTINUING
UPTICK IN APPROACHING FORCING OFF THE DIGGING WAVE JUST TO THE
WEST...ALONG WITH DEEPENING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES/PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO 0.50 TO 0.60+ AFTER MIDNIGHT/...TO FUEL
INCREASING RAIN DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD. BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL STILL LOOK TO REAMING WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH DAWN MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL WILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS THAT GET MEASURABLE AT 0.05 OR LESS BY
12Z MON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

OUR FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS LARGELY CONSISTENT FROM ITS
EARLIER ISSUANCES...BUT OBVIOUS TO ANYONE FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD IS
THAT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM HAS FINALLY LEFT THE HOUSE. NO MODELS
WITHIN THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA HAVE RETAINED THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS/WINTER STORM
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS GONE...AS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON TUESDAY APPEARS MORE DELAYED AND LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE EASTERLY
PATH TO THE SECONDARY LOW AND FAR LESS OF A NOTABLE EVENT ANYWHERE.

GETTING BACK TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OFFERED IN THIS PERIOD ON
NEARLY EVERY MODELS AS THE INITIAL STRONG NORTHERN WAVE DROPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
AND OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD RAIN IS IN THE
OFFING AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND BELOW ARE BOTH ABOVE FREEZING AND
SATURATED...THUS SNOW SHOULD NOT SURVIVE THAT LAYER UNTIL WE ARE
WELL ON THE BACKSIDE AND COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE EAST AS SOME HAD INDICATED
EARLIER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT TO PRECIPITATE OUT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH THE GFS HAS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE GFS HAS STRONG WAA FORCING BY MORNING WEDNESDAY...LASTING
THROUGH VERY EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOTTING OUR CWA...LIKELY WITH
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO FOLLOW. THE EC IS SLOWER...AND HAS A SIMILAR
ROUND OF FORCING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  SINCE
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN EACH
SCENARIO...I HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS...WITH CATEGORICAL CENTERED MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WET PERIOD BUT WINDS SOUTH WINDS
BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST SHOULD NOT CREATE A WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WIND EVENT IN THE
MIDWEST. THUS FOR OUR CWA...WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST BY OUR OFFICE...AND THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH ON
GUSTS...SO WHILE BREEZY...WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT HAVE STARVED THIS LOW OF BOTH
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY REPRESENT TWO
MORE MODERATE DAYS BEFORE COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OFF AND
ON -RA/DZ BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDBQ AND POSSIBLE KCID FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211917
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MORE OF THE FOG ADVISORY WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
IN SOUTHEAST MIXING SFC FLOW OF 8-12 MPH. REST OF THE REMAINING
COUNTIES ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE CANCELED
EARLY AND WILL WATCH FOG TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING BUT SFC
TEMPS CWA WIDE ABOVE 32 EXCEPT RIGHT AT FREEZING ALONG THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR EAST OF DBQ INTO NW IL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW GRADIENT IN FULL SWING ACRS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LLVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOCAL 88D WAS INDICATING MORE
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE MOVING EAST ACRS THE CWA...BUT ALMOST CWA-WIDE SFC
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT EVEN ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR...MAYBE A BIT
MORE LINGERING POTENTIAL THRU 6 AM AROUND THE FREEPORT AREA IN NW
IL. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS INDICATING DENSE FOG IMPROVEMENT ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE ONGOING ADVISORY AND WILL DROP THAT
SECTION WITH 4AM FCST PACKAGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING WEAK VORT MOVING EAST TOWARD NORTHERN IL WITH TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGE BULGE SET TO SLIDE ACRS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL THIS
MORNING...BUT STRONGER WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TODAY...WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
OF 7-12 KTS EXPECT MIXING AND REDUCTION OF THE DENSE FOG...REST OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO LINGERING
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE TO WALK OUT OF THE CWA/ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF/
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BUT AS WAVE ALOFT DEPARTS THE CWA MY BE
MAINLY DRY BY MIDDAY IF NOT EARLIER. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF MO...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC LAYER RH/DPTS MUCH OF THE CWA MAY REACH
40 DEGREES OR MILDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WAVE/VORT COMPLEX
NOTED ABOVE...ROLLING ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOOK TO
KICK UP SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN/IF MOISTURE
LAYER CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH/ ACRS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AFTER MID
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 FROM LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT RATHER BRISK SOUTHERLY
BL FLOW TO MIX OUT ANY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ONGOING LOW MOIST FLOW AND WAA TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IF NOT MILDER IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT...THUS NO
CHC FOR ANY MIX OR FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CONTINUING
UPTICK IN APPROACHING FORCING OFF THE DIGGING WAVE JUST TO THE
WEST...ALONG WITH DEEPENING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES/PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO 0.50 TO 0.60+ AFTER MIDNIGHT/...TO FUEL
INCREASING RAIN DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD. BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL STILL LOOK TO REAMING WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH DAWN MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL WILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS THAT GET MEASURABLE AT 0.05 OR LESS BY
12Z MON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

OUR FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS LARGELY CONSISTENT FROM ITS
EARLIER ISSUANCES...BUT OBVIOUS TO ANYONE FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD IS
THAT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM HAS FINALLY LEFT THE HOUSE. NO MODELS
WITHIN THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA HAVE RETAINED THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS/WINTER STORM
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS GONE...AS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON TUESDAY APPEARS MORE DELAYED AND LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE EASTERLY
PATH TO THE SECONDARY LOW AND FAR LESS OF A NOTABLE EVENT ANYWHERE.

GETTING BACK TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OFFERED IN THIS PERIOD ON
NEARLY EVERY MODELS AS THE INITIAL STRONG NORTHERN WAVE DROPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
AND OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD RAIN IS IN THE
OFFING AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND BELOW ARE BOTH ABOVE FREEZING AND
SATURATED...THUS SNOW SHOULD NOT SURVIVE THAT LAYER UNTIL WE ARE
WELL ON THE BACKSIDE AND COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE EAST AS SOME HAD INDICATED
EARLIER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT TO PRECIPITATE OUT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH THE GFS HAS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE GFS HAS STRONG WAA FORCING BY MORNING WEDNESDAY...LASTING
THROUGH VERY EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOTTING OUR CWA...LIKELY WITH
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO FOLLOW. THE EC IS SLOWER...AND HAS A SIMILAR
ROUND OF FORCING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  SINCE
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN EACH
SCENARIO...I HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS...WITH CATEGORICAL CENTERED MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WET PERIOD BUT WINDS SOUTH WINDS
BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST SHOULD NOT CREATE A WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WIND EVENT IN THE
MIDWEST. THUS FOR OUR CWA...WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST BY OUR OFFICE...AND THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH ON
GUSTS...SO WHILE BREEZY...WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT HAVE STARVED THIS LOW OF BOTH
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY REPRESENT TWO
MORE MODERATE DAYS BEFORE COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OFF AND
ON -RA/DZ BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDBQ AND POSSIBLE KCID FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211917
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MORE OF THE FOG ADVISORY WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
IN SOUTHEAST MIXING SFC FLOW OF 8-12 MPH. REST OF THE REMAINING
COUNTIES ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE CANCELED
EARLY AND WILL WATCH FOG TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING BUT SFC
TEMPS CWA WIDE ABOVE 32 EXCEPT RIGHT AT FREEZING ALONG THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR EAST OF DBQ INTO NW IL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW GRADIENT IN FULL SWING ACRS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LLVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOCAL 88D WAS INDICATING MORE
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE MOVING EAST ACRS THE CWA...BUT ALMOST CWA-WIDE SFC
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT EVEN ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR...MAYBE A BIT
MORE LINGERING POTENTIAL THRU 6 AM AROUND THE FREEPORT AREA IN NW
IL. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS INDICATING DENSE FOG IMPROVEMENT ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE ONGOING ADVISORY AND WILL DROP THAT
SECTION WITH 4AM FCST PACKAGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING WEAK VORT MOVING EAST TOWARD NORTHERN IL WITH TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGE BULGE SET TO SLIDE ACRS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL THIS
MORNING...BUT STRONGER WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TODAY...WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
OF 7-12 KTS EXPECT MIXING AND REDUCTION OF THE DENSE FOG...REST OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO LINGERING
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE TO WALK OUT OF THE CWA/ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF/
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BUT AS WAVE ALOFT DEPARTS THE CWA MY BE
MAINLY DRY BY MIDDAY IF NOT EARLIER. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF MO...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC LAYER RH/DPTS MUCH OF THE CWA MAY REACH
40 DEGREES OR MILDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WAVE/VORT COMPLEX
NOTED ABOVE...ROLLING ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOOK TO
KICK UP SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN/IF MOISTURE
LAYER CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH/ ACRS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AFTER MID
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 FROM LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT RATHER BRISK SOUTHERLY
BL FLOW TO MIX OUT ANY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ONGOING LOW MOIST FLOW AND WAA TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IF NOT MILDER IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT...THUS NO
CHC FOR ANY MIX OR FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CONTINUING
UPTICK IN APPROACHING FORCING OFF THE DIGGING WAVE JUST TO THE
WEST...ALONG WITH DEEPENING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES/PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO 0.50 TO 0.60+ AFTER MIDNIGHT/...TO FUEL
INCREASING RAIN DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD. BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL STILL LOOK TO REAMING WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH DAWN MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL WILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS THAT GET MEASURABLE AT 0.05 OR LESS BY
12Z MON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

OUR FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS LARGELY CONSISTENT FROM ITS
EARLIER ISSUANCES...BUT OBVIOUS TO ANYONE FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD IS
THAT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM HAS FINALLY LEFT THE HOUSE. NO MODELS
WITHIN THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA HAVE RETAINED THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS/WINTER STORM
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS GONE...AS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON TUESDAY APPEARS MORE DELAYED AND LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE EASTERLY
PATH TO THE SECONDARY LOW AND FAR LESS OF A NOTABLE EVENT ANYWHERE.

GETTING BACK TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OFFERED IN THIS PERIOD ON
NEARLY EVERY MODELS AS THE INITIAL STRONG NORTHERN WAVE DROPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
AND OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD RAIN IS IN THE
OFFING AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND BELOW ARE BOTH ABOVE FREEZING AND
SATURATED...THUS SNOW SHOULD NOT SURVIVE THAT LAYER UNTIL WE ARE
WELL ON THE BACKSIDE AND COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE EAST AS SOME HAD INDICATED
EARLIER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT TO PRECIPITATE OUT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH THE GFS HAS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE GFS HAS STRONG WAA FORCING BY MORNING WEDNESDAY...LASTING
THROUGH VERY EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOTTING OUR CWA...LIKELY WITH
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO FOLLOW. THE EC IS SLOWER...AND HAS A SIMILAR
ROUND OF FORCING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  SINCE
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN EACH
SCENARIO...I HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS...WITH CATEGORICAL CENTERED MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WET PERIOD BUT WINDS SOUTH WINDS
BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST SHOULD NOT CREATE A WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WIND EVENT IN THE
MIDWEST. THUS FOR OUR CWA...WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST BY OUR OFFICE...AND THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH ON
GUSTS...SO WHILE BREEZY...WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT HAVE STARVED THIS LOW OF BOTH
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY REPRESENT TWO
MORE MODERATE DAYS BEFORE COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OFF AND
ON -RA/DZ BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ARRIVES AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDBQ AND POSSIBLE KCID FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAVE TRIMMED OFF MORE OF THE FOG ADVISORY WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
IN SOUTHEAST MIXING SFC FLOW OF 8-12 MPH. REST OF THE REMAINING
COUNTIES ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE CANCELED
EARLY AND WILL WATCH FOG TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY
AREAS OF DRIZZLE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING BUT SFC
TEMPS CWA WIDE ABOVE 32 EXCEPT RIGHT AT FREEZING ALONG THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR EAST OF DBQ INTO NW IL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW GRADIENT IN FULL SWING ACRS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LLVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOCAL 88D WAS INDICATING MORE
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE MOVING EAST ACRS THE CWA...BUT ALMOST CWA-WIDE SFC
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT EVEN ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR...MAYBE A BIT
MORE LINGERING POTENTIAL THRU 6 AM AROUND THE FREEPORT AREA IN NW
IL. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS INDICATING DENSE FOG IMPROVEMENT ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE ONGOING ADVISORY AND WILL DROP THAT
SECTION WITH 4AM FCST PACKAGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING WEAK VORT MOVING EAST TOWARD NORTHERN IL WITH TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGE BULGE SET TO SLIDE ACRS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL THIS
MORNING...BUT STRONGER WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TODAY...WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
OF 7-12 KTS EXPECT MIXING AND REDUCTION OF THE DENSE FOG...REST OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO LINGERING
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE TO WALK OUT OF THE CWA/ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF/
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BUT AS WAVE ALOFT DEPARTS THE CWA MY BE
MAINLY DRY BY MIDDAY IF NOT EARLIER. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF MO...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC LAYER RH/DPTS MUCH OF THE CWA MAY REACH
40 DEGREES OR MILDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WAVE/VORT COMPLEX
NOTED ABOVE...ROLLING ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOOK TO
KICK UP SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN/IF MOISTURE
LAYER CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH/ ACRS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AFTER MID
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 FROM LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT RATHER BRISK SOUTHERLY
BL FLOW TO MIX OUT ANY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ONGOING LOW MOIST FLOW AND WAA TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IF NOT MILDER IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT...THUS NO
CHC FOR ANY MIX OR FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CONTINUING
UPTICK IN APPROACHING FORCING OFF THE DIGGING WAVE JUST TO THE
WEST...ALONG WITH DEEPENING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES/PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO 0.50 TO 0.60+ AFTER MIDNIGHT/...TO FUEL
INCREASING RAIN DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD. BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL STILL LOOK TO REAMING WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH DAWN MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL WILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS THAT GET MEASURABLE AT 0.05 OR LESS BY
12Z MON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

OUR FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS LARGELY CONSISTENT FROM ITS
EARLIER ISSUANCES...BUT OBVIOUS TO ANYONE FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD IS
THAT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM HAS FINALLY LEFT THE HOUSE. NO MODELS
WITHIN THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA HAVE RETAINED THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS/WINTER STORM
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS GONE...AS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON TUESDAY APPEARS MORE DELAYED AND LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE EASTERLY
PATH TO THE SECONDARY LOW AND FAR LESS OF A NOTABLE EVENT ANYWHERE.

GETTING BACK TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OFFERED IN THIS PERIOD ON
NEARLY EVERY MODELS AS THE INITIAL STRONG NORTHERN WAVE DROPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
AND OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD RAIN IS IN THE
OFFING AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND BELOW ARE BOTH ABOVE FREEZING AND
SATURATED...THUS SNOW SHOULD NOT SURVIVE THAT LAYER UNTIL WE ARE
WELL ON THE BACKSIDE AND COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE EAST AS SOME HAD INDICATED
EARLIER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT TO PRECIPITATE OUT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH THE GFS HAS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE GFS HAS STRONG WAA FORCING BY MORNING WEDNESDAY...LASTING
THROUGH VERY EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOTTING OUR CWA...LIKELY WITH
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO FOLLOW. THE EC IS SLOWER...AND HAS A SIMILAR
ROUND OF FORCING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  SINCE
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN EACH
SCENARIO...I HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS...WITH CATEGORICAL CENTERED MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WET PERIOD BUT WINDS SOUTH WINDS
BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST SHOULD NOT CREATE A WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WIND EVENT IN THE
MIDWEST. THUS FOR OUR CWA...WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST BY OUR OFFICE...AND THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH ON
GUSTS...SO WHILE BREEZY...WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT HAVE STARVED THIS LOW OF BOTH
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY REPRESENT TWO
MORE MODERATE DAYS BEFORE COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

JUST SPOTTY REGULAR DRIZZLE MOVING ACRS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. FOG IMPROVING AS WELL WITH MAINLY
MVFR VSBYS AROUND NOW...AND A TEMPORARY RISE TO LOW VFR CIGS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I80. DO EXPECT CIGS TO TREND DOWN AGAIN TO LOWER MVFR
OR EVEN POSSIBLY IFR LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE INFLUX OUT OF MO. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS INTO THE EVENING. TONIGHT...MANY CIGS TO LOWER
TO IFR AGAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME 2-4SM FOG BUT SFC WINDS MAINTAINING 8-13KTS
SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD DENSE OR MUCH OF ANY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
MORE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE VCNTY OF CID AND DBQ.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210926
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW GRADIENT IN FULL SWING ACRS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LLVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOCAL 88D WAS INDICATING MORE
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE MOVING EAST ACRS THE CWA...BUT ALMOST CWA-WIDE SFC
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT EVEN ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR...MAYBE A BIT
MORE LINGERING POTENTIAL THRU 6 AM AROUND THE FREEPORT AREA IN NW
IL. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS INDICATING DENSE FOG IMPROVEMENT ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE ONGOING ADVISORY AND WILL DROP THAT
SECTION WITH 4AM FCST PACKAGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING WEAK VORT MOVING EAST TOWARD NORTHERN IL WITH TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGE BULGE SET TO SLIDE ACRS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL THIS
MORNING...BUT STRONGER WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TODAY...WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
OF 7-12 KTS EXPECT MIXING AND REDUCTION OF THE DENSE FOG...REST OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO LINGERING
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE TO WALK OUT OF THE CWA/ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF/
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BUT AS WAVE ALOFT DEPARTS THE CWA MY BE
MAINLY DRY BY MIDDAY IF NOT EARLIER. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF MO...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC LAYER RH/DPTS MUCH OF THE CWA MAY REACH
40 DEGREES OR MILDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WAVE/VORT COMPLEX
NOTED ABOVE...ROLLING ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOOK TO
KICK UP SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN/IF MOISTURE
LAYER CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH/ ACRS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AFTER MID
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 FROM LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT RATHER BRISK SOUTHERLY
BL FLOW TO MIX OUT ANY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ONGOING LOW MOIST FLOW AND WAA TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IF NOT MILDER IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT...THUS NO
CHC FOR ANY MIX OR FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CONTINUING
UPTICK IN APPROACHING FORCING OFF THE DIGGING WAVE JUST TO THE
WEST...ALONG WITH DEEPENING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES/PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO 0.50 TO 0.60+ AFTER MIDNIGHT/...TO FUEL
INCREASING RAIN DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD. BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL STILL LOOK TO REAMING WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH DAWN MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL WILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS THAT GET MEASURABLE AT 0.05 OR LESS BY
12Z MON.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

OUR FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS LARGELY CONSISTENT FROM ITS
EARLIER ISSUANCES...BUT OBVIOUS TO ANYONE FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD IS
THAT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM HAS FINALLY LEFT THE HOUSE. NO MODELS
WITHIN THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA HAVE RETAINED THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS/WINTER STORM
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS GONE...AS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON TUESDAY APPEARS MORE DELAYED AND LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE EASTERLY
PATH TO THE SECONDARY LOW AND FAR LESS OF A NOTABLE EVENT ANYWHERE.

GETTING BACK TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OFFERED IN THIS PERIOD ON
NEARLY EVERY MODELS AS THE INITIAL STRONG NORTHERN WAVE DROPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
AND OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD RAIN IS IN THE
OFFING AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND BELOW ARE BOTH ABOVE FREEZING AND
SATURATED...THUS SNOW SHOULD NOT SURVIVE THAT LAYER UNTIL WE ARE
WELL ON THE BACKSIDE AND COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE EAST AS SOME HAD INDICATED
EARLIER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT TO PRECIPITATE OUT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH THE GFS HAS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE GFS HAS STRONG WAA FORCING BY MORNING WEDNESDAY...LASTING
THROUGH VERY EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOTTING OUR CWA...LIKELY WITH
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO FOLLOW. THE EC IS SLOWER...AND HAS A SIMILAR
ROUND OF FORCING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  SINCE
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN EACH
SCENARIO...I HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS...WITH CATEGORICAL CENTERED MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WET PERIOD BUT WINDS SOUTH WINDS
BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST SHOULD NOT CREATE A WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WIND EVENT IN THE
MIDWEST. THUS FOR OUR CWA...WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST BY OUR OFFICE...AND THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH ON
GUSTS...SO WHILE BREEZY...WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT HAVE STARVED THIS LOW OF BOTH
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY REPRESENT TWO
MORE MODERATE DAYS BEFORE COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR 1/4SM DENSE FOG AT KCID OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED AT KDBQ...WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS AT
OTHER TAF SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-LINN.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210926
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW GRADIENT IN FULL SWING ACRS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LLVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE LOCAL 88D WAS INDICATING MORE
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE MOVING EAST ACRS THE CWA...BUT ALMOST CWA-WIDE SFC
TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING MUCH OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT EVEN ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR...MAYBE A BIT
MORE LINGERING POTENTIAL THRU 6 AM AROUND THE FREEPORT AREA IN NW
IL. SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS INDICATING DENSE FOG IMPROVEMENT ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE ONGOING ADVISORY AND WILL DROP THAT
SECTION WITH 4AM FCST PACKAGE. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING WEAK VORT MOVING EAST TOWARD NORTHERN IL WITH TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGE BULGE SET TO SLIDE ACRS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL THIS
MORNING...BUT STRONGER WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TODAY...WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
THROUGH LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
OF 7-12 KTS EXPECT MIXING AND REDUCTION OF THE DENSE FOG...REST OF
THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO LINGERING
SWATHS OF DRIZZLE TO WALK OUT OF THE CWA/ESPECIALLY THE NORTH HALF/
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BUT AS WAVE ALOFT DEPARTS THE CWA MY BE
MAINLY DRY BY MIDDAY IF NOT EARLIER. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF MO...DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC LAYER RH/DPTS MUCH OF THE CWA MAY REACH
40 DEGREES OR MILDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM WAVE/VORT COMPLEX
NOTED ABOVE...ROLLING ACRS CENTRAL IA BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOOK TO
KICK UP SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR EVEN LIGHT RAIN/IF MOISTURE
LAYER CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH/ ACRS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AFTER MID
AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF I80 FROM LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT RATHER BRISK SOUTHERLY
BL FLOW TO MIX OUT ANY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...ONGOING LOW MOIST FLOW AND WAA TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IF NOT MILDER IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT...THUS NO
CHC FOR ANY MIX OR FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CONTINUING
UPTICK IN APPROACHING FORCING OFF THE DIGGING WAVE JUST TO THE
WEST...ALONG WITH DEEPENING VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES/PWATS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO 0.50 TO 0.60+ AFTER MIDNIGHT/...TO FUEL
INCREASING RAIN DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD. BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL STILL LOOK TO REAMING WEST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH DAWN MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL WILL LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS THAT GET MEASURABLE AT 0.05 OR LESS BY
12Z MON.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

OUR FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS LARGELY CONSISTENT FROM ITS
EARLIER ISSUANCES...BUT OBVIOUS TO ANYONE FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD IS
THAT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM HAS FINALLY LEFT THE HOUSE. NO MODELS
WITHIN THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA HAVE RETAINED THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WITH HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS/WINTER STORM
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS GONE...AS THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON TUESDAY APPEARS MORE DELAYED AND LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE EASTERLY
PATH TO THE SECONDARY LOW AND FAR LESS OF A NOTABLE EVENT ANYWHERE.

GETTING BACK TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OFFERED IN THIS PERIOD ON
NEARLY EVERY MODELS AS THE INITIAL STRONG NORTHERN WAVE DROPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST
AND OCCLUDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD RAIN IS IN THE
OFFING AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND BELOW ARE BOTH ABOVE FREEZING AND
SATURATED...THUS SNOW SHOULD NOT SURVIVE THAT LAYER UNTIL WE ARE
WELL ON THE BACKSIDE AND COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW JUST TO THE EAST AS SOME HAD INDICATED
EARLIER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT TO PRECIPITATE OUT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING...WHICH THE GFS HAS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE GFS HAS STRONG WAA FORCING BY MORNING WEDNESDAY...LASTING
THROUGH VERY EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOTTING OUR CWA...LIKELY WITH
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO FOLLOW. THE EC IS SLOWER...AND HAS A SIMILAR
ROUND OF FORCING MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  SINCE
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN EACH
SCENARIO...I HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS...WITH CATEGORICAL CENTERED MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A WET PERIOD BUT WINDS SOUTH WINDS
BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH...NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST SHOULD NOT CREATE A WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WIND EVENT IN THE
MIDWEST. THUS FOR OUR CWA...WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR LIGHTER THAN
EARLIER FORECAST BY OUR OFFICE...AND THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 30 MPH ON
GUSTS...SO WHILE BREEZY...WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECONDARY LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT HAVE STARVED THIS LOW OF BOTH
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION...BUT IN GENERAL...CHRISTMAS AND FRIDAY REPRESENT TWO
MORE MODERATE DAYS BEFORE COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR 1/4SM DENSE FOG AT KCID OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED AT KDBQ...WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS AT
OTHER TAF SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-LINN.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210603
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LOW VSBYS CONTINUING THAT LONG...BUT ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED
EARLY IF NEED BE.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND LESSER TRAVELED ROADS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST OBS...ROAD REPORTS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING SOME
SLICK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DUE
TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG FREEZING ON ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND
LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS ARE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO LIGHT ICING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ARE LOCATED FROM TIPTON AND
CEDAR RAPIDS...NORTH TO ANAMOSA AND MANCHESTER. ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN PROLONGED ICING
ACROSS THE NORTH. SO FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR 1/4SM DENSE FOG AT KCID OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED AT KDBQ...WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS AT
OTHER TAF SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210603
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LOW VSBYS CONTINUING THAT LONG...BUT ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED
EARLY IF NEED BE.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND LESSER TRAVELED ROADS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST OBS...ROAD REPORTS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING SOME
SLICK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DUE
TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG FREEZING ON ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND
LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS ARE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO LIGHT ICING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ARE LOCATED FROM TIPTON AND
CEDAR RAPIDS...NORTH TO ANAMOSA AND MANCHESTER. ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN PROLONGED ICING
ACROSS THE NORTH. SO FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR 1/4SM DENSE FOG AT KCID OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED AT KDBQ...WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS AT
OTHER TAF SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210603
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LOW VSBYS CONTINUING THAT LONG...BUT ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED
EARLY IF NEED BE.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND LESSER TRAVELED ROADS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST OBS...ROAD REPORTS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING SOME
SLICK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DUE
TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG FREEZING ON ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND
LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS ARE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO LIGHT ICING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ARE LOCATED FROM TIPTON AND
CEDAR RAPIDS...NORTH TO ANAMOSA AND MANCHESTER. ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN PROLONGED ICING
ACROSS THE NORTH. SO FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR 1/4SM DENSE FOG AT KCID OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED AT KDBQ...WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS AT
OTHER TAF SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210603
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LOW VSBYS CONTINUING THAT LONG...BUT ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED
EARLY IF NEED BE.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND LESSER TRAVELED ROADS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST OBS...ROAD REPORTS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING SOME
SLICK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DUE
TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG FREEZING ON ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND
LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS ARE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO LIGHT ICING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ARE LOCATED FROM TIPTON AND
CEDAR RAPIDS...NORTH TO ANAMOSA AND MANCHESTER. ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN PROLONGED ICING
ACROSS THE NORTH. SO FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

06Z TAFS UPDATED FOR 1/4SM DENSE FOG AT KCID OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AROUND 14Z SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. PATCHY FZDZ EXPECTED AT KDBQ...WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS AT
OTHER TAF SITES. MAINLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210132
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
732 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST OBS...ROAD REPORTS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING SOME
SLICK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DUE
TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG FREEZING ON ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND
LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS ARE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO LIGHT ICING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ARE LOCATED FROM TIPTON AND
CEDAR RAPIDS...NORTH TO ANAMOSA AND MANCHESTER. ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN PROLONGED ICING
ACROSS THE NORTH. SO FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPS...AND A STRAY FLURRY AT TIMES. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS...THE THREAT FOR PROLONGED FZDZ WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH INVOF KDBQ. KMLI/KCID MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF FZDZ THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210132
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
732 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST OBS...ROAD REPORTS...AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATING SOME
SLICK CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...DUE
TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG FREEZING ON ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND
LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS ARE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO LIGHT ICING. THE
MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ARE LOCATED FROM TIPTON AND
CEDAR RAPIDS...NORTH TO ANAMOSA AND MANCHESTER. ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN PROLONGED ICING
ACROSS THE NORTH. SO FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPS...AND A STRAY FLURRY AT TIMES. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS...THE THREAT FOR PROLONGED FZDZ WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH INVOF KDBQ. KMLI/KCID MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF FZDZ THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPS...AND A STRAY FLURRY AT TIMES. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS...THE THREAT FOR PROLONGED FZDZ WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH INVOF KDBQ. KMLI/KCID MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF FZDZ THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPS...AND A STRAY FLURRY AT TIMES. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS...THE THREAT FOR PROLONGED FZDZ WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH INVOF KDBQ. KMLI/KCID MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF FZDZ THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 202102
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 PM CST SHOWS ALL OF UPPER MIDWEST UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND A FEW FLURRIES AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG DIGGING JET ENTERING PACIFIC
WITH DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO KEEP AREA MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENERGY UPSTREAM
SUPPORTS DEEP TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE...MAIN ISSUE
IS COVERAGE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
NORTH OF I-80. PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
OCCUR. AREA LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITH A DEGREE OR
TWO OF FORECAST. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH SUNDAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SHOULD END NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH OF I-80
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT
DOES OCCUR NORTH OF I-80 BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 DEGREES SUPPORTING LIMITED...IF ANY IMPACTS WITH PROPER
PRECAUTIONS. LOWS SHOULD BE 29 TO 34 DEGREES WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
AREA VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES.

SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO ALLOW FOR AREA HIGHS OF 38 TO
45+ DEGREES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY 2 TO
5 MILES. DAMP CONDITIONS FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND WILL BE UNDERGOING A
CHANGE DURING THE WEEK. WHEN THIS OCCURS...PREDICTABILITY ON HOW
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IS MUCH LOWER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNTIL
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES TO A SUFFICIENT DEPTH AND FORCING
INCREASES...DRIZZLE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CONTINUED WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS
MEANS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SPOTTY AS THE FORCING DECREASES. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO OTTUMWA LINE ON TUESDAY. IF THE DRYING
ALOFT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR EXCEEDINGLY
LIGHT SNOW. IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR MID
WEEK.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO HELP DEVELOP THIS STORM SYSTEM.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY
TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DICTATE SNOW
AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT ON
HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM WILL TRACK SO IT TOO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY. WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
DICTATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LOWER END MVFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS AS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INTENSIFY
LEE SIDE PLAINS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THIS MAY PRODUCE
LIGHT DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH ARE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO SPOTTY NATURE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 201742
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE COMPLEX CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE MS
RVR VALLEY. ALOFT...WAVE ANALYSIS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS
INDICATING A WEAK VORT EXITING THE AREA ACRS EASTERN IL WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX WAS SEEN DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS EASTERN
NEB INTO WESTERN IA WITH EYES OF ROLLING ACRS THE IA/MO BORDER
REGION THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT FLURRIES WHERE BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
DVN CWA ATTM...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT MAX KICKING UP ANOTHER
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IA...OBS AND REPORTS OUT
THERE SUGGEST A MIX OF FLURRIES WHERE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES ARE
GOING ON...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA OUT OF LOW
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TODAY...WITH THE ABOVE VORT MAX AND FORCING ON ITS GRADIENT ROLL
TOWARD AND ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUED RATHER SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER UNDER H8 MB...WILL KEEP FLURRIES GOING ON ACRS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA THOUGH 15Z WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL SEEDER
FEEDER PROCESSES GOING ON...BUT KEEP A MIX OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACRS THE WEST WHERE UPSTREAM LOWER STRATUS WILL LOOK TO SEEP
ACRS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SFC TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO OR ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OR MORE OF THE CWA
LIMITING GLAZE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SFC OBS AND REPORTS FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES TO THE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IL BY LATE MORNING...
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUT DOWN ANY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING
PROCESSES FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY. AS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL BUT DO
NOT THINK ANY WORSE THAN 1-3 MILE VSBYS SO NOT ZONE MENTION
WORTHY. CLOUDY BUT MAINLY PRECIP-FREE AFTERNOON...ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY IN THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH PUSHING THE UPPER 30S BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOST 00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK VORT TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ACRS IA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
TYPE OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP FROM LATE EVENING ACRS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA...AND
EXPANDING TO THE NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ONGOING
BLANKETING LLVL STRATUS...HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THE LOWER 30S FEEL SFC
TEMPS TO HOLD AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACRS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR MORE OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL JUST MENTION
DRIZZLE. BY THE TIME THE DRIZZLE GETS WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH OF
I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVEN MANY AREAS UP THERE MAY BE MARGINAL FOR
MUCH OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TROUBLE OR SLIPPERY GLAZE. BUT WILL
KEEP MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING AND RAISE POPS FOR POSSIBLE
MEASURE OF AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 30
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MAIN LLVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
SWATH.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONFIDENCE ON A CLOUDY FORECAST APPEARS ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM OFFERS UP ONE
CERTAINTY...STRATUS.  THE FORECAST REMAINS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRATUS...DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TUESDAY A MIX TO SNOW.
THIS ALL OCCURS AS WE SEE A PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENERGY
INTO A VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM BY TUESDAY IN THE GREAT LAKES OR
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY CONFIDENT...
BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR OUR CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY ANY OF
THE SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE 00Z DATA SET. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS NOW ONE OF THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY...AND IS MUCH MORE VARIABLE RUN TO RUN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION TO THIS
LOW. ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS TO 40 POSSIBLY.

PRECEDING THIS...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MILD...AND DAMP. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE ARRIVES. THIS SLOWLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE A COLD RAIN THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE.  I HAVE DELAYED ANY
TRANSITION TO SNOW MIX SLOWER MODELS...AS WE SHOULD HAVE VERY MUCH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...AND WITHOUT STRONG CAA...THIS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME COOLING BELOW FREEZING WITH THE MAIN LIFT WELL ABOVE THAT
LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.35 SEEM MOST ON TARGET FOR THE
PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE WINDY AND RAW...NO
DOUBT ABOUT THAT...AND PROBABLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
CAA. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE COOL...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD AS THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP MUCH ARCTIC AIR.

THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE GREATLY DIVERGENT BUT
INTERNALLY CONSISTENT TONIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN UPPER TROFS...AND INDICATES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE EC AND UKMET SHOW A
LONGER WAVELENGTH OF UPPER TROFS...ALLOWING FOR MORE RIDGING IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD BEFORE EJECTING EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO THEN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LOWER END MVFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS AS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INTENSIFY
LEE SIDE PLAINS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THIS MAY PRODUCE
LIGHT DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH ARE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO SPOTTY NATURE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 201742
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE COMPLEX CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE MS
RVR VALLEY. ALOFT...WAVE ANALYSIS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS
INDICATING A WEAK VORT EXITING THE AREA ACRS EASTERN IL WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX WAS SEEN DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS EASTERN
NEB INTO WESTERN IA WITH EYES OF ROLLING ACRS THE IA/MO BORDER
REGION THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT FLURRIES WHERE BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
DVN CWA ATTM...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT MAX KICKING UP ANOTHER
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IA...OBS AND REPORTS OUT
THERE SUGGEST A MIX OF FLURRIES WHERE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES ARE
GOING ON...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA OUT OF LOW
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TODAY...WITH THE ABOVE VORT MAX AND FORCING ON ITS GRADIENT ROLL
TOWARD AND ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUED RATHER SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER UNDER H8 MB...WILL KEEP FLURRIES GOING ON ACRS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA THOUGH 15Z WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL SEEDER
FEEDER PROCESSES GOING ON...BUT KEEP A MIX OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACRS THE WEST WHERE UPSTREAM LOWER STRATUS WILL LOOK TO SEEP
ACRS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SFC TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO OR ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OR MORE OF THE CWA
LIMITING GLAZE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SFC OBS AND REPORTS FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES TO THE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IL BY LATE MORNING...
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUT DOWN ANY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING
PROCESSES FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY. AS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL BUT DO
NOT THINK ANY WORSE THAN 1-3 MILE VSBYS SO NOT ZONE MENTION
WORTHY. CLOUDY BUT MAINLY PRECIP-FREE AFTERNOON...ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY IN THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH PUSHING THE UPPER 30S BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOST 00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK VORT TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ACRS IA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
TYPE OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP FROM LATE EVENING ACRS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA...AND
EXPANDING TO THE NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ONGOING
BLANKETING LLVL STRATUS...HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THE LOWER 30S FEEL SFC
TEMPS TO HOLD AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACRS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR MORE OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL JUST MENTION
DRIZZLE. BY THE TIME THE DRIZZLE GETS WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH OF
I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVEN MANY AREAS UP THERE MAY BE MARGINAL FOR
MUCH OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TROUBLE OR SLIPPERY GLAZE. BUT WILL
KEEP MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING AND RAISE POPS FOR POSSIBLE
MEASURE OF AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 30
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MAIN LLVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
SWATH.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONFIDENCE ON A CLOUDY FORECAST APPEARS ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM OFFERS UP ONE
CERTAINTY...STRATUS.  THE FORECAST REMAINS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRATUS...DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TUESDAY A MIX TO SNOW.
THIS ALL OCCURS AS WE SEE A PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENERGY
INTO A VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM BY TUESDAY IN THE GREAT LAKES OR
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY CONFIDENT...
BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR OUR CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY ANY OF
THE SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE 00Z DATA SET. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS NOW ONE OF THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY...AND IS MUCH MORE VARIABLE RUN TO RUN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION TO THIS
LOW. ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS TO 40 POSSIBLY.

PRECEDING THIS...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MILD...AND DAMP. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE ARRIVES. THIS SLOWLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE A COLD RAIN THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE.  I HAVE DELAYED ANY
TRANSITION TO SNOW MIX SLOWER MODELS...AS WE SHOULD HAVE VERY MUCH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...AND WITHOUT STRONG CAA...THIS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME COOLING BELOW FREEZING WITH THE MAIN LIFT WELL ABOVE THAT
LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.35 SEEM MOST ON TARGET FOR THE
PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE WINDY AND RAW...NO
DOUBT ABOUT THAT...AND PROBABLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
CAA. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE COOL...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD AS THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP MUCH ARCTIC AIR.

THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE GREATLY DIVERGENT BUT
INTERNALLY CONSISTENT TONIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN UPPER TROFS...AND INDICATES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE EC AND UKMET SHOW A
LONGER WAVELENGTH OF UPPER TROFS...ALLOWING FOR MORE RIDGING IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD BEFORE EJECTING EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO THEN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LOWER END MVFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS AS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INTENSIFY
LEE SIDE PLAINS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THIS MAY PRODUCE
LIGHT DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH ARE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO SPOTTY NATURE AND LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 201155
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE COMPLEX CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE MS
RVR VALLEY. ALOFT...WAVE ANALYSIS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS
INDICATING A WEAK VORT EXITING THE AREA ACRS EASTERN IL WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX WAS SEEN DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS EASTERN
NEB INTO WESTERN IA WITH EYES OF ROLLING ACRS THE IA/MO BORDER
REGION THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT FLURRIES WHERE BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
DVN CWA ATTM...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT MAX KICKING UP ANOTHER
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IA...OBS AND REPORTS OUT
THERE SUGGEST A MIX OF FLURRIES WHERE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES ARE
GOING ON...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA OUT OF LOW
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TODAY...WITH THE ABOVE VORT MAX AND FORCING ON ITS GRADIENT ROLL
TOWARD AND ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUED RATHER SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER UNDER H8 MB...WILL KEEP FLURRIES GOING ON ACRS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA THOUGH 15Z WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL SEEDER
FEEDER PROCESSES GOING ON...BUT KEEP A MIX OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACRS THE WEST WHERE UPSTREAM LOWER STRATUS WILL LOOK TO SEEP
ACRS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SFC TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO OR ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OR MORE OF THE CWA
LIMITING GLAZE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SFC OBS AND REPORTS FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES TO THE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IL BY LATE MORNING...
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUT DOWN ANY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING
PROCESSES FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY. AS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL BUT DO
NOT THINK ANY WORSE THAN 1-3 MILE VSBYS SO NOT ZONE MENTION
WORTHY. CLOUDY BUT MAINLY PRECIP-FREE AFTERNOON...ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY IN THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH PUSHING THE UPPER 30S BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOST 00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK VORT TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ACRS IA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
TYPE OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP FROM LATE EVENING ACRS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA...AND
EXPANDING TO THE NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ONGOING
BLANKETING LLVL STRATUS...HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THE LOWER 30S FEEL SFC
TEMPS TO HOLD AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACRS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR MORE OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL JUST MENTION
DRIZZLE. BY THE TIME THE DRIZZLE GETS WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH OF
I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVEN MANY AREAS UP THERE MAY BE MARGINAL FOR
MUCH OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TROUBLE OR SLIPPERY GLAZE. BUT WILL
KEEP MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING AND RAISE POPS FOR POSSIBLE
MEASURE OF AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 30
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MAIN LLVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
SWATH.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONFIDENCE ON A CLOUDY FORECAST APPEARS ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM OFFERS UP ONE
CERTAINTY...STRATUS.  THE FORECAST REMAINS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRATUS...DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TUESDAY A MIX TO SNOW.
THIS ALL OCCURS AS WE SEE A PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENERGY
INTO A VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM BY TUESDAY IN THE GREAT LAKES OR
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY CONFIDENT...
BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR OUR CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY ANY OF
THE SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE 00Z DATA SET. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS NOW ONE OF THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY...AND IS MUCH MORE VARIABLE RUN TO RUN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION TO THIS
LOW. ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS TO 40 POSSIBLY.

PRECEDING THIS...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MILD...AND DAMP. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE ARRIVES. THIS SLOWLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE A COLD RAIN THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE.  I HAVE DELAYED ANY
TRANSITION TO SNOW MIX SLOWER MODELS...AS WE SHOULD HAVE VERY MUCH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...AND WITHOUT STRONG CAA...THIS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME COOLING BELOW FREEZING WITH THE MAIN LIFT WELL ABOVE THAT
LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.35 SEEM MOST ON TARGET FOR THE
PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE WINDY AND RAW...NO
DOUBT ABOUT THAT...AND PROBABLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
CAA. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE COOL...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD AS THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP MUCH ARCTIC AIR.

THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE GREATLY DIVERGENT BUT
INTERNALLY CONSISTENT TONIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN UPPER TROFS...AND INDICATES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE EC AND UKMET SHOW A
LONGER WAVELENGTH OF UPPER TROFS...ALLOWING FOR MORE RIDGING IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD BEFORE EJECTING EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO THEN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF VFR STRATOCU WILL GIVE WAY THIS MORNING
TO LOWER MVFR CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...WITH EVEN SOME IFR SUB 1000
FT AGL CIGS COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING
POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE MS RVR. BESIDES SOME 2-4SM FOG...AREAS
OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID MORNING...
BEFORE EXITING AGAIN BY MIDDAY. SOME RECOVERY BACK TO MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 4-8KTS...THEN
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT CID AND DBQ. SOME 2-4SM FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG
WITH THE DRIZZLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 201155
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE COMPLEX CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE MS
RVR VALLEY. ALOFT...WAVE ANALYSIS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS
INDICATING A WEAK VORT EXITING THE AREA ACRS EASTERN IL WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX WAS SEEN DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS EASTERN
NEB INTO WESTERN IA WITH EYES OF ROLLING ACRS THE IA/MO BORDER
REGION THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT FLURRIES WHERE BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
DVN CWA ATTM...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT MAX KICKING UP ANOTHER
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IA...OBS AND REPORTS OUT
THERE SUGGEST A MIX OF FLURRIES WHERE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES ARE
GOING ON...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA OUT OF LOW
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TODAY...WITH THE ABOVE VORT MAX AND FORCING ON ITS GRADIENT ROLL
TOWARD AND ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUED RATHER SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER UNDER H8 MB...WILL KEEP FLURRIES GOING ON ACRS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA THOUGH 15Z WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL SEEDER
FEEDER PROCESSES GOING ON...BUT KEEP A MIX OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACRS THE WEST WHERE UPSTREAM LOWER STRATUS WILL LOOK TO SEEP
ACRS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SFC TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO OR ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OR MORE OF THE CWA
LIMITING GLAZE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SFC OBS AND REPORTS FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES TO THE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IL BY LATE MORNING...
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUT DOWN ANY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING
PROCESSES FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY. AS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL BUT DO
NOT THINK ANY WORSE THAN 1-3 MILE VSBYS SO NOT ZONE MENTION
WORTHY. CLOUDY BUT MAINLY PRECIP-FREE AFTERNOON...ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY IN THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH PUSHING THE UPPER 30S BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOST 00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK VORT TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ACRS IA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
TYPE OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP FROM LATE EVENING ACRS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA...AND
EXPANDING TO THE NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ONGOING
BLANKETING LLVL STRATUS...HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THE LOWER 30S FEEL SFC
TEMPS TO HOLD AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACRS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR MORE OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL JUST MENTION
DRIZZLE. BY THE TIME THE DRIZZLE GETS WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH OF
I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVEN MANY AREAS UP THERE MAY BE MARGINAL FOR
MUCH OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TROUBLE OR SLIPPERY GLAZE. BUT WILL
KEEP MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING AND RAISE POPS FOR POSSIBLE
MEASURE OF AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 30
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MAIN LLVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
SWATH.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONFIDENCE ON A CLOUDY FORECAST APPEARS ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM OFFERS UP ONE
CERTAINTY...STRATUS.  THE FORECAST REMAINS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRATUS...DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TUESDAY A MIX TO SNOW.
THIS ALL OCCURS AS WE SEE A PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENERGY
INTO A VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM BY TUESDAY IN THE GREAT LAKES OR
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY CONFIDENT...
BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR OUR CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY ANY OF
THE SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE 00Z DATA SET. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS NOW ONE OF THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY...AND IS MUCH MORE VARIABLE RUN TO RUN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION TO THIS
LOW. ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS TO 40 POSSIBLY.

PRECEDING THIS...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MILD...AND DAMP. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE ARRIVES. THIS SLOWLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE A COLD RAIN THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE.  I HAVE DELAYED ANY
TRANSITION TO SNOW MIX SLOWER MODELS...AS WE SHOULD HAVE VERY MUCH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...AND WITHOUT STRONG CAA...THIS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME COOLING BELOW FREEZING WITH THE MAIN LIFT WELL ABOVE THAT
LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.35 SEEM MOST ON TARGET FOR THE
PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE WINDY AND RAW...NO
DOUBT ABOUT THAT...AND PROBABLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
CAA. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE COOL...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD AS THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP MUCH ARCTIC AIR.

THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE GREATLY DIVERGENT BUT
INTERNALLY CONSISTENT TONIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN UPPER TROFS...AND INDICATES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE EC AND UKMET SHOW A
LONGER WAVELENGTH OF UPPER TROFS...ALLOWING FOR MORE RIDGING IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD BEFORE EJECTING EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO THEN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF VFR STRATOCU WILL GIVE WAY THIS MORNING
TO LOWER MVFR CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...WITH EVEN SOME IFR SUB 1000
FT AGL CIGS COMING IN FROM THE WEST FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING
POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE MS RVR. BESIDES SOME 2-4SM FOG...AREAS
OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID MORNING...
BEFORE EXITING AGAIN BY MIDDAY. SOME RECOVERY BACK TO MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 4-8KTS...THEN
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT CID AND DBQ. SOME 2-4SM FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG
WITH THE DRIZZLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 200926
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE COMPLEX CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE MS
RVR VALLEY. ALOFT...WAVE ANALYSIS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS
INDICATING A WEAK VORT EXITING THE AREA ACRS EASTERN IL WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX WAS SEEN DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS EASTERN
NEB INTO WESTERN IA WITH EYES OF ROLLING ACRS THE IA/MO BORDER
REGION THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT FLURRIES WHERE BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
DVN CWA ATTM...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT MAX KICKING UP ANOTHER
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IA...OBS AND REPORTS OUT
THERE SUGGEST A MIX OF FLURRIES WHERE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES ARE
GOING ON...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA OUT OF LOW
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TODAY...WITH THE ABOVE VORT MAX AND FORCING ON ITS GRADIENT ROLL
TOWARD AND ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUED RATHER SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER UNDER H8 MB...WILL KEEP FLURRIES GOING ON ACRS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA THOUGH 15Z WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL SEEDER
FEEDER PROCESSES GOING ON...BUT KEEP A MIX OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACRS THE WEST WHERE UPSTREAM LOWER STRATUS WILL LOOK TO SEEP
ACRS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SFC TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO OR ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OR MORE OF THE CWA
LIMITING GLAZE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SFC OBS AND REPORTS FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES TO THE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IL BY LATE MORNING...
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUT DOWN ANY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING
PROCESSES FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY. AS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL BUT DO
NOT THINK ANY WORSE THAN 1-3 MILE VSBYS SO NOT ZONE MENTION
WORTHY. CLOUDY BUT MAINLY PRECIP-FREE AFTERNOON...ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY IN THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH PUSHING THE UPPER 30S BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOST 00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK VORT TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ACRS IA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
TYPE OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP FROM LATE EVENING ACRS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA...AND
EXPANDING TO THE NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ONGOING
BLANKETING LLVL STRATUS...HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THE LOWER 30S FEEL SFC
TEMPS TO HOLD AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACRS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR MORE OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL JUST MENTION
DRIZZLE. BY THE TIME THE DRIZZLE GETS WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH OF
I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVEN MANY AREAS UP THERE MAY BE MARGINAL FOR
MUCH OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TROUBLE OR SLIPPERY GLAZE. BUT WILL
KEEP MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING AND RAISE POPS FOR POSSIBLE
MEASURE OF AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 30
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MAIN LLVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
SWATH.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONFIDENCE ON A CLOUDY FORECAST APPEARS ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM OFFERS UP ONE
CERTAINTY...STRATUS.  THE FORECAST REMAINS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRATUS...DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TUESDAY A MIX TO SNOW.
THIS ALL OCCURS AS WE SEE A PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENERGY
INTO A VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM BY TUESDAY IN THE GREAT LAKES OR
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY CONFIDENT...
BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR OUR CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY ANY OF
THE SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE 00Z DATA SET. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS NOW ONE OF THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY...AND IS MUCH MORE VARIABLE RUN TO RUN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION TO THIS
LOW. ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS TO 40 POSSIBLY.

PRECEDING THIS...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MILD...AND DAMP. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE ARRIVES. THIS SLOWLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE A COLD RAIN THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE.  I HAVE DELAYED ANY
TRANSITION TO SNOW MIX SLOWER MODELS...AS WE SHOULD HAVE VERY MUCH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...AND WITHOUT STRONG CAA...THIS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME COOLING BELOW FREEZING WITH THE MAIN LIFT WELL ABOVE THAT
LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.35 SEEM MOST ON TARGET FOR THE
PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE WINDY AND RAW...NO
DOUBT ABOUT THAT...AND PROBABLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
CAA. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE COOL...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD AS THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP MUCH ARCTIC AIR.

THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE GREATLY DIVERGENT BUT
INTERNALLY CONSISTENT TONIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN UPPER TROFS...AND INDICATES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE EC AND UKMET SHOW A
LONGER WAVELENGTH OF UPPER TROFS...ALLOWING FOR MORE RIDGING IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD BEFORE EJECTING EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO THEN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN IA
AND NW IL OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG FOLLOWS DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CIGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
AND VISIBILITIES OF 4SM TO 6SM DUE TO FOG ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY 12Z. A FEW FLURRIES AND PATCHY VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CID AND DBQ TERMINALS. SATURDAY
MORNING...BRL WILL LIKELY SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS...OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL
SITES. WHILE NOT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BECOMING
MORE OF AN ISSUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 200926
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE COMPLEX CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF THE MS
RVR VALLEY. ALOFT...WAVE ANALYSIS ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS
INDICATING A WEAK VORT EXITING THE AREA ACRS EASTERN IL WHILE A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX WAS SEEN DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS EASTERN
NEB INTO WESTERN IA WITH EYES OF ROLLING ACRS THE IA/MO BORDER
REGION THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT FLURRIES WHERE BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
DVN CWA ATTM...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT MAX KICKING UP ANOTHER
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IA...OBS AND REPORTS OUT
THERE SUGGEST A MIX OF FLURRIES WHERE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES ARE
GOING ON...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACRS NORTH CENTRAL IA OUT OF LOW
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TODAY...WITH THE ABOVE VORT MAX AND FORCING ON ITS GRADIENT ROLL
TOWARD AND ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUED RATHER SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER UNDER H8 MB...WILL KEEP FLURRIES GOING ON ACRS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA THOUGH 15Z WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL SEEDER
FEEDER PROCESSES GOING ON...BUT KEEP A MIX OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACRS THE WEST WHERE UPSTREAM LOWER STRATUS WILL LOOK TO SEEP
ACRS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SFC TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO OR ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OR MORE OF THE CWA
LIMITING GLAZE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT UNTIL THEN WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SFC OBS AND REPORTS FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS. AS
THE VORT MAX MOVES TO THE EAST ACRS CENTRAL IL BY LATE MORNING...
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUT DOWN ANY LIGHT PRECIP MAKING
PROCESSES FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY. AS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL BUT DO
NOT THINK ANY WORSE THAN 1-3 MILE VSBYS SO NOT ZONE MENTION
WORTHY. CLOUDY BUT MAINLY PRECIP-FREE AFTERNOON...ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A MILDER DAY IN THE MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTH PUSHING THE UPPER 30S BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MOST 00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK VORT TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ACRS IA FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
TYPE OF WARM FRONTAL FORCING MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIP FROM LATE EVENING ACRS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA...AND
EXPANDING TO THE NORTH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ONGOING
BLANKETING LLVL STRATUS...HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THE LOWER 30S FEEL SFC
TEMPS TO HOLD AT OR EVEN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACRS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR MORE OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL JUST MENTION
DRIZZLE. BY THE TIME THE DRIZZLE GETS WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH OF
I80 AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVEN MANY AREAS UP THERE MAY BE MARGINAL FOR
MUCH OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TROUBLE OR SLIPPERY GLAZE. BUT WILL
KEEP MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING AND RAISE POPS FOR POSSIBLE
MEASURE OF AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 30
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MAIN LLVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
SWATH.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONFIDENCE ON A CLOUDY FORECAST APPEARS ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM OFFERS UP ONE
CERTAINTY...STRATUS.  THE FORECAST REMAINS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRATUS...DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND EVENTUALLY TUESDAY A MIX TO SNOW.
THIS ALL OCCURS AS WE SEE A PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENERGY
INTO A VERY POTENT STORM SYSTEM BY TUESDAY IN THE GREAT LAKES OR
OHIO VALLEY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY CONFIDENT...
BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO APPEAR OUR CWA WILL BE BRUSHED BY ANY OF
THE SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE 00Z DATA SET. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS NOW ONE OF THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST TRACKS OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY...AND IS MUCH MORE VARIABLE RUN TO RUN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION TO THIS
LOW. ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME LOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTS TO 40 POSSIBLY.

PRECEDING THIS...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
MILD...AND DAMP. MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE ARRIVES. THIS SLOWLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE A COLD RAIN THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE.  I HAVE DELAYED ANY
TRANSITION TO SNOW MIX SLOWER MODELS...AS WE SHOULD HAVE VERY MUCH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS...AND WITHOUT STRONG CAA...THIS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME COOLING BELOW FREEZING WITH THE MAIN LIFT WELL ABOVE THAT
LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.35 SEEM MOST ON TARGET FOR THE
PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE WINDY AND RAW...NO
DOUBT ABOUT THAT...AND PROBABLY CLOUDY AS WELL WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
CAA. TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE COOL...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD AS THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO TAP MUCH ARCTIC AIR.

THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY...MODELS ARE GREATLY DIVERGENT BUT
INTERNALLY CONSISTENT TONIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON A SHORT
WAVELENGTH BETWEEN UPPER TROFS...AND INDICATES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE EC AND UKMET SHOW A
LONGER WAVELENGTH OF UPPER TROFS...ALLOWING FOR MORE RIDGING IN
BETWEEN. THIS ALLOWS FOR STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD BEFORE EJECTING EAST. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO THEN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN IA
AND NW IL OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG FOLLOWS DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CIGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
AND VISIBILITIES OF 4SM TO 6SM DUE TO FOG ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY 12Z. A FEW FLURRIES AND PATCHY VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CID AND DBQ TERMINALS. SATURDAY
MORNING...BRL WILL LIKELY SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS...OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL
SITES. WHILE NOT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BECOMING
MORE OF AN ISSUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 200540
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES OCCURRING WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IA
THAT WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MLI TO DBQ.
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW IA MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES AFTER ABOUT 3 AM ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS
MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...OBSERVED WITH
THE LIFR CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL IA...WHICH MAY ADVANCE INTO FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
FOCUSED INTO CENTRAL IA SO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
THIS AFTN TO WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL
SWING THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE TROUGH
WHERE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TONIGHT...TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AS LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND INCREASES RH IN THE NEAR SFC-850 MB LAYER. NAM
AND SREF PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. IF LIGHT PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE
SATURATED CLOUD LAYER IS AT -8/-9 C OR WARMER...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD -FZDZ. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 F
DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...DEFINED VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT MID-LEVELS. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION BETWEEN 900-850 MB...TRAPPING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THUS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
MUCH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME.  925-850 MB
WAA WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...
THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AND WHAT KIND OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL
EXPERIENCE. LIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE A STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY TH RU CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT SPECIFICS ARE DYNAMIC AND THUS
HARD TO NAIL DOWN.

THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS AND VORT MAXES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROF APPROACHING
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE QPF WITH THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MIST EVENT WITH FREEZING MIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TURNS TO ALL RAIN. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
LINGER THRU EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE BETTER VORT MAX DIGS A TROF INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF WEATHER. MODELS
AGREE ON ONE THING AND THAT IS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WAY WE GET THERE IS DIFFERENT WITH EACH
MODEL. CURRENT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIST TRANSITIONING INTO
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY 6Z..THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXES IN WITH THE
RAIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...WE SEE SNOW ON
THE BACK END. WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PM
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT SPECIFIC MODELS....THE GEM HAS THE
INITIAL LOW IN N WI AND THEN IT OCCLUDES AND DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS
AR AND TN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS AN ELONGATED LOW
OVER IA AND MN...AND THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER CHICAGO...IN
THIS CASE THE WHOLE CWA WOULD SEE SNOW. THE ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
DIFFERENT WHERE IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WED AND DROPS MOST OF
THE SNOW TO OUR EAST. WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY IS THAT WE ARE NO
CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH THE MODELS CHANGING. I STILL
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SYSTEM AS ANY
CHANGE IN STORM TRACK...DEVELOPMENT ETC..COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE IN
THE AFFECTS. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

LOOKING TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE DAY LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN IA
AND NW IL OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG FOLLOWS DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CIGS AT OR BELOW 3000 FT AGL
AND VISIBILITIES OF 4SM TO 6SM DUE TO FOG ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY 12Z. A FEW FLURRIES AND PATCHY VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE CID AND DBQ TERMINALS. SATURDAY
MORNING...BRL WILL LIKELY SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS...OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT ALL
SITES. WHILE NOT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BECOMING
MORE OF AN ISSUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 200222
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
822 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
COVERAGE FOR OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AND FOG POTENTIAL APPEAR
GREATEST MAINLY WEST OF THE HWY 218 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THERE...THERE WILL BE LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE DRIER
AIR ON LIGHT SE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EVER
SO SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI. THE AXIS OF DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 30S FROM AR/OK NORTH ACROSS MO INTO S CENTRAL IA WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH AND THEN EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
COULD STILL RESULT IN PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE FAR S AND SW LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW 800 MB ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
THIS AFTN TO WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL
SWING THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE TROUGH
WHERE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TONIGHT...TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AS LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND INCREASES RH IN THE NEAR SFC-850 MB LAYER. NAM
AND SREF PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. IF LIGHT PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE
SATURATED CLOUD LAYER IS AT -8/-9 C OR WARMER...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD -FZDZ. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 F
DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...DEFINED VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT MID-LEVELS. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION BETWEEN 900-850 MB...TRAPPING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THUS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
MUCH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME.  925-850 MB
WAA WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...
THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AND WHAT KIND OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL
EXPERIENCE. LIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE A STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY TH RU CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT SPECIFICS ARE DYNAMIC AND THUS
HARD TO NAIL DOWN.

THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS AND VORT MAXES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROF APPROACHING
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE QPF WITH THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MIST EVENT WITH FREEZING MIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TURNS TO ALL RAIN. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
LINGER THRU EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE BETTER VORT MAX DIGS A TROF INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF WEATHER. MODELS
AGREE ON ONE THING AND THAT IS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WAY WE GET THERE IS DIFFERENT WITH EACH
MODEL. CURRENT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIST TRANSITIONING INTO
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY 6Z..THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXES IN WITH THE
RAIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...WE SEE SNOW ON
THE BACK END. WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PM
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT SPECIFIC MODELS....THE GEM HAS THE
INITIAL LOW IN N WI AND THEN IT OCCLUDES AND DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS
AR AND TN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS AN ELONGATED LOW
OVER IA AND MN...AND THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER CHICAGO...IN
THIS CASE THE WHOLE CWA WOULD SEE SNOW. THE ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
DIFFERENT WHERE IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WED AND DROPS MOST OF
THE SNOW TO OUR EAST. WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY IS THAT WE ARE NO
CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH THE MODELS CHANGING. I STILL
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SYSTEM AS ANY
CHANGE IN STORM TRACK...DEVELOPMENT ETC..COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE IN
THE AFFECTS. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

LOOKING TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE DAY LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A VERY SLOW MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WI AND IL WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
THIS EVENING. THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL MORE LIKELY DUE TO
LOWER CIGS FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AND LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO A
4SM TO 6SM RANGE AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 200222
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
822 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DOWNPLAY THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
COVERAGE FOR OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AND FOG POTENTIAL APPEAR
GREATEST MAINLY WEST OF THE HWY 218 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THERE...THERE WILL BE LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE DRIER
AIR ON LIGHT SE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EVER
SO SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI. THE AXIS OF DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 30S FROM AR/OK NORTH ACROSS MO INTO S CENTRAL IA WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH AND THEN EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
COULD STILL RESULT IN PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE FAR S AND SW LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDES
WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW 800 MB ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
THIS AFTN TO WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL
SWING THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE TROUGH
WHERE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TONIGHT...TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AS LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND INCREASES RH IN THE NEAR SFC-850 MB LAYER. NAM
AND SREF PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. IF LIGHT PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE
SATURATED CLOUD LAYER IS AT -8/-9 C OR WARMER...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD -FZDZ. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 F
DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...DEFINED VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT MID-LEVELS. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION BETWEEN 900-850 MB...TRAPPING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THUS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
MUCH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME.  925-850 MB
WAA WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...
THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AND WHAT KIND OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL
EXPERIENCE. LIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE A STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY TH RU CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT SPECIFICS ARE DYNAMIC AND THUS
HARD TO NAIL DOWN.

THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS AND VORT MAXES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROF APPROACHING
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE QPF WITH THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MIST EVENT WITH FREEZING MIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TURNS TO ALL RAIN. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
LINGER THRU EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE BETTER VORT MAX DIGS A TROF INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF WEATHER. MODELS
AGREE ON ONE THING AND THAT IS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WAY WE GET THERE IS DIFFERENT WITH EACH
MODEL. CURRENT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIST TRANSITIONING INTO
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY 6Z..THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXES IN WITH THE
RAIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...WE SEE SNOW ON
THE BACK END. WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PM
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT SPECIFIC MODELS....THE GEM HAS THE
INITIAL LOW IN N WI AND THEN IT OCCLUDES AND DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS
AR AND TN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS AN ELONGATED LOW
OVER IA AND MN...AND THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER CHICAGO...IN
THIS CASE THE WHOLE CWA WOULD SEE SNOW. THE ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
DIFFERENT WHERE IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WED AND DROPS MOST OF
THE SNOW TO OUR EAST. WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY IS THAT WE ARE NO
CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH THE MODELS CHANGING. I STILL
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SYSTEM AS ANY
CHANGE IN STORM TRACK...DEVELOPMENT ETC..COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE IN
THE AFFECTS. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

LOOKING TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE DAY LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A VERY SLOW MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WI AND IL WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
THIS EVENING. THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL MORE LIKELY DUE TO
LOWER CIGS FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AND LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO A
4SM TO 6SM RANGE AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 192343
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
543 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
THIS AFTN TO WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL
SWING THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE TROUGH
WHERE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TONIGHT...TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AS LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND INCREASES RH IN THE NEAR SFC-850 MB LAYER. NAM
AND SREF PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. IF LIGHT PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE
SATURATED CLOUD LAYER IS AT -8/-9 C OR WARMER...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD -FZDZ. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 F
DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...DEFINED VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT MID-LEVELS. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION BETWEEN 900-850 MB...TRAPPING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THUS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
MUCH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME.  925-850 MB
WAA WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...
THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AND WHAT KIND OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL
EXPERIENCE. LIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE A STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY TH RU CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT SPECIFICS ARE DYNAMIC AND THUS
HARD TO NAIL DOWN.

THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS AND VORT MAXES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROF APPROACHING
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE QPF WITH THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MIST EVENT WITH FREEZING MIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TURNS TO ALL RAIN. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
LINGER THRU EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE BETTER VORT MAX DIGS A TROF INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF WEATHER. MODELS
AGREE ON ONE THING AND THAT IS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WAY WE GET THERE IS DIFFERENT WITH EACH
MODEL. CURRENT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIST TRANSITIONING INTO
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY 6Z..THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXES IN WITH THE
RAIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...WE SEE SNOW ON
THE BACK END. WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PM
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT SPECIFIC MODELS....THE GEM HAS THE
INITIAL LOW IN N WI AND THEN IT OCCLUDES AND DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS
AR AND TN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS AN ELONGATED LOW
OVER IA AND MN...AND THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER CHICAGO...IN
THIS CASE THE WHOLE CWA WOULD SEE SNOW. THE ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
DIFFERENT WHERE IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WED AND DROPS MOST OF
THE SNOW TO OUR EAST. WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY IS THAT WE ARE NO
CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH THE MODELS CHANGING. I STILL
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SYSTEM AS ANY
CHANGE IN STORM TRACK...DEVELOPMENT ETC..COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE IN
THE AFFECTS. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

LOOKING TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE DAY LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A VERY SLOW MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WI AND IL WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
THIS EVENING. THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL MORE LIKELY DUE TO
LOWER CIGS FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AND LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO A
4SM TO 6SM RANGE AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 192343
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
543 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
THIS AFTN TO WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL
SWING THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE TROUGH
WHERE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TONIGHT...TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AS LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND INCREASES RH IN THE NEAR SFC-850 MB LAYER. NAM
AND SREF PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. IF LIGHT PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE
SATURATED CLOUD LAYER IS AT -8/-9 C OR WARMER...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD -FZDZ. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 F
DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...DEFINED VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT MID-LEVELS. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION BETWEEN 900-850 MB...TRAPPING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THUS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
MUCH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME.  925-850 MB
WAA WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...
THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AND WHAT KIND OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL
EXPERIENCE. LIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE A STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY TH RU CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT SPECIFICS ARE DYNAMIC AND THUS
HARD TO NAIL DOWN.

THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS AND VORT MAXES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROF APPROACHING
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE QPF WITH THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MIST EVENT WITH FREEZING MIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TURNS TO ALL RAIN. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
LINGER THRU EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE BETTER VORT MAX DIGS A TROF INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF WEATHER. MODELS
AGREE ON ONE THING AND THAT IS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WAY WE GET THERE IS DIFFERENT WITH EACH
MODEL. CURRENT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIST TRANSITIONING INTO
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY 6Z..THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXES IN WITH THE
RAIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...WE SEE SNOW ON
THE BACK END. WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PM
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT SPECIFIC MODELS....THE GEM HAS THE
INITIAL LOW IN N WI AND THEN IT OCCLUDES AND DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS
AR AND TN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS AN ELONGATED LOW
OVER IA AND MN...AND THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER CHICAGO...IN
THIS CASE THE WHOLE CWA WOULD SEE SNOW. THE ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
DIFFERENT WHERE IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WED AND DROPS MOST OF
THE SNOW TO OUR EAST. WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY IS THAT WE ARE NO
CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH THE MODELS CHANGING. I STILL
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SYSTEM AS ANY
CHANGE IN STORM TRACK...DEVELOPMENT ETC..COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE IN
THE AFFECTS. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

LOOKING TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE DAY LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A VERY SLOW MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WI AND IL WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
LOW...BUT THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
THIS EVENING. THE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL MORE LIKELY DUE TO
LOWER CIGS FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AND LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO A
4SM TO 6SM RANGE AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 192112
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
THIS AFTN TO WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL
SWING THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE TROUGH
WHERE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TONIGHT...TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AS LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND INCREASES RH IN THE NEAR SFC-850 MB LAYER. NAM
AND SREF PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. IF LIGHT PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE
SATURATED CLOUD LAYER IS AT -8/-9 C OR WARMER... ALTHOUGH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD -FZDZ. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 F
DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...DEFINED VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT MID-LEVELS. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION BETWEEN 900-850 MB...TRAPPING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THUS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
MUCH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME.  925-850 MB
WAA WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...
THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AND WHAT KIND OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL
EXPERIENCE. LIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE A STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY TH RU CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT SPECIFICS ARE DYNAMIC AND THUS
HARD TO NAIL DOWN.

THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS AND VORTMAXES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROF APPROACHING
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE QPF WITH THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MIST EVENT WITH FREEZING MIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TURNS TO ALL RAIN. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
LINGER THRU EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE BETTER VORTMAX DIGS A TROF INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF WEATHER. MODELS
AGREE ON ONE THING AND THAT IS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WAY WE GET THERE IS DIFFERENT WITH EACH
MODEL. CURRENT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIST TRANSITIONING INTO
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY 6Z..THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXES IN WITH THE
RAIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...WE SEE SNOW ON
THE BACK END. WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PM
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT SPECIFIC MODELS....THE GEM HAS THE
INITIAL LOW IN N WI AND THEN IT OCCLUDES AND DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS
AR AND TN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS AN ELONGATED LOW
OVER IA AND MN...AND THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER CHICAGO...IN
THIS CASE THE WHOLE CWA WOULD SEE SNOW. THE ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
DIFFERENT WHERE IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WED AND DROPS MOST OF
THE SNOW TO OUR EAST. WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY IS THAT WE ARE NO
CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH THE MODELS CHANGING. I STILL
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SYSTEM AS ANY
CHANGE IN STORM TRACK...DEVELOPMENT ETC..COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE IN
THE AFFECTS. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

LOOKING TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE DAY LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

BREAKS IN STRATUS WILL RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF VFR AT
KCID...KMLI...AND KBRL THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS ALREADY
FORMED IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL KNOCK CIGS
DOWN TO 1500-2000 FT AGL. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT KMLI EARLY THIS
AFTN AND HOLD OFF LONGER AT KCID AND KBRL. GENERAL TREND AFTER
06Z-09Z/SATURDAY IS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS CIGS LOWER
TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL AND VSBYS DROP BELOW 3 SM. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY -FZDZ TONIGHT...DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 192112
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
THIS AFTN TO WESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS
ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND WILL
SWING THROUGH IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE TROUGH
WHERE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TONIGHT...TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AS LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND INCREASES RH IN THE NEAR SFC-850 MB LAYER. NAM
AND SREF PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. IF LIGHT PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE
SATURATED CLOUD LAYER IS AT -8/-9 C OR WARMER... ALTHOUGH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD -FZDZ. HOWEVER WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 F
DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -FZDZ
AFTER 3 AM ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...DEFINED VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT MID-LEVELS. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP AN INVERSION BETWEEN 900-850 MB...TRAPPING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THUS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
MUCH CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME.  925-850 MB
WAA WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT WITHIN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...
THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ON AVG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REMAINS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK AND WHAT KIND OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WE WILL
EXPERIENCE. LIKE YESTERDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS THAT THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE A STORM SYSTEM
MONDAY TH RU CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT SPECIFICS ARE DYNAMIC AND THUS
HARD TO NAIL DOWN.

THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS AND VORTMAXES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROF APPROACHING
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE QPF WITH THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM. AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MIST EVENT WITH FREEZING MIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND TURNS TO ALL RAIN. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD
LINGER THRU EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE BETTER VORTMAX DIGS A TROF INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF WEATHER. MODELS
AGREE ON ONE THING AND THAT IS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THE WAY WE GET THERE IS DIFFERENT WITH EACH
MODEL. CURRENT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIST TRANSITIONING INTO
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY 6Z..THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXES IN WITH THE
RAIN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...WE SEE SNOW ON
THE BACK END. WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PM
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT SPECIFIC MODELS....THE GEM HAS THE
INITIAL LOW IN N WI AND THEN IT OCCLUDES AND DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS
AR AND TN. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT MORE SNOW ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS AN ELONGATED LOW
OVER IA AND MN...AND THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW OVER CHICAGO...IN
THIS CASE THE WHOLE CWA WOULD SEE SNOW. THE ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
DIFFERENT WHERE IT GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WED AND DROPS MOST OF
THE SNOW TO OUR EAST. WHAT IM TRYING TO SAY IS THAT WE ARE NO
CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH THE MODELS CHANGING. I STILL
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SYSTEM AS ANY
CHANGE IN STORM TRACK...DEVELOPMENT ETC..COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE IN
THE AFFECTS. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

LOOKING TO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE DAY LOOKS DRY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

BREAKS IN STRATUS WILL RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF VFR AT
KCID...KMLI...AND KBRL THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS ALREADY
FORMED IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL KNOCK CIGS
DOWN TO 1500-2000 FT AGL. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT KMLI EARLY THIS
AFTN AND HOLD OFF LONGER AT KCID AND KBRL. GENERAL TREND AFTER
06Z-09Z/SATURDAY IS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS CIGS LOWER
TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL AND VSBYS DROP BELOW 3 SM. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY -FZDZ TONIGHT...DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 191758
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING LARGE RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRM
FROM ACRS ONTARIO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR...ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE
MID TO LOWER MS RVR VALLEY. LIGHT LLVL RETURN FLOW PATTERN TO THE
WEST OF IT ACRS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. EXTENSIVE STRATUS
DECK UNDER THE WEST HALF OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
IN RETURN FLOW INTERACTION ZONE...OPEN SKY SWATH FROM SOUTHWEST
OF DBQ SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE QUAD CITES/EASTERN I80 CORRIDOR
WILL LOOK TO FILL BACK IN EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A VORT WING
MOVING ACRS EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN...TAILING DOWN ACRS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA ATTM. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW
ACRS MN...AND MAY BE INDUCING THE PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
CURRENTLY OUT ACRS CENTRAL IA. NEG VORTICITY IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN
NEB INTO WESTERN IA BEHIND THIS MAIN VORT. A FURTHER UPSTREAM VORT
NOTED ACRS WY...AND A MORE VIGOROUS VORT MAX NOTED ACRS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

TODAY...BULK OF HIRES MODELS SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE COMPLEX TO
HAVE IT/S EFFECT THIS MORNING MAINTAINING HIGHER CLOUD CIGS FOR
AWHILE...BEFORE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE EASTWARD MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE LOWER DECK OUT WEST TO SEEP EASTWARD. AREA
OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACRS CENTRAL IA MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND MAY GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BANK ON DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE RIDGE
STILL IN PLACE TO DEFLECT/EAT AWAY AT THIS PROCESS AND KEEP THE
DRIZZLE JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR UPDATES. THEN
EXPECT NVA OUT OF WESTERN IA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ONGOING CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
TO HELP TEMPS MAKE IT A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAY. THEN THE
UPSTREAM VORT NOTED ABOVE CURRENTLY ACRS WY WILL LOOK TO DIG ACRS
THE IA/MO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RATHER
SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS MAINLY UNDER H8
MB...THIS INCOMING WAVE MAY START TO PRODUCE SPOTTY DRIZZLE AGAIN
AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES ACRS MO INTO CENTRAL IA...BUT AGAIN WILL BANK
ON ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SFC TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S UNDER
STRATUS DECK AND CONTINUING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW. AS THE
FIRST WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF IA
INTO IL DURING THE EVENING...THERE MAY BE A CHC FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BREAK OUT BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THROUGH 06Z FOR NOW. A BETTER CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONGER
WAVE ARRIVES OUT OF ALBERTA AND DIGS ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
IA. MOISTURE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF LIFT STILL AT QUESTION...BUT WILL
INTRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION ALOFT ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO
WARRANT SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE...BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO REASSESS
AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY TO ADD SPOTTY CHC/S IN THE EVENING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH THE SAME CLOUDY AND DAMP REGIME WE
HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES OVER THIS PAST MONTH. TONIGHTS DRIZZLE...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS GREATLY DEPENDING ON HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. SHORT LIVED SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY BEHIND THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT WILL HOPEFULLY OFFER A LULL IN ANY
DRIZZLE...SO AFTER A MILD DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WE WILL SET
UP FOR ANOTHER DRIZZLE/FZDZ EVENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DOMESTIC
MODELS ARE OFFERING COLD SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE MILD. I BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS
MORE ON TARGET HERE AS THERE IS ALMOST NO REASON FOR COLD
SUBFREEZING AIR TO LINGER UNDER THIS STRATUS DECK. IN ANY
CASE...DESPITE LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S...ROADS AND SURFACES WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO RADIATE OUT SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY GIVE OFF LONG WAVE RADIATION TO THE SURFACES AS
WELL...LIKELY KEEPING ANY FZDZ MINIMALLY PROBLEMATIC. STILL...SINCE
WE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO 32 MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH...I WILL
MENTION IT IN THE GRIDS...BUT HOPEFULLY THIS IS NOT AN ADVISORY
EVENT. SHOULD THE ECMWF RISING TEMPERATURES BE CORRECT AS I
SUSPECT...WE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME DRIZZLE OCCURS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DZ EVENT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
AS MORE NOTABLE FORCING ARRIVES...IT MAY BECOME A INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAIN IN THE NORTH...AND WILL ALLOW POPS TO BE MENTIONED AT THAT
TIME. IN THE END...IF THE DRIZZLE IS HEAVY ENOUGH...IT WILL NEED
MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR CONTINUALLY WETTING SURFACES ANYWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WILL BE RATHER STRONG AS THE COMPLICATED
NORTHWEST FLOW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES. A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST NEAR IOWA...AS THE MAIN ENERGY DIVES WELL
SOUTH...CARVING OUT WHAT MAY BE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE LIKELY...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATER TUESDAY WHEN
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RAMP UP TO THE EAST. IN THE END...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MAY JUST BE A CONTINUATION OF THE RELATIVELY
MILD AND DAMP CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN QUITE FAMILIAR WITH THIS MONTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM TO THE EAST...OUT
BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE WIND...STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
APPEAR LIKELY...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW TO THE EAST POTENTIALLY DEEPENS TO AROUND 970MB PER 00Z ECMWF

FOLLOWING THIS...AFTER A PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE GREATLY DIVERGENT. THE 00Z GFS OFFERS
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR...BUT LITTLE PCPN
THREATS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A PROGRESSIVE DEEP SYNOPTIC TROF MOVING
INTO THE LOWER ROCKIES BY DECEMBER 26...SPAWNING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THAT SYSTEM WOULD IMPACT THE MIDWEST WITH MORE
CLOUDS/RAIN/POSSIBLE WINTER PCPN LATER ON THE 26/27. THERE IS NO
CONSISTENCY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM MODEL TO MODEL...OR IN RUN TO RUN OF ANY
MODEL...SO MENTION OF A TRACK OF THAT POSSIBLE STORM SEEMS VERY
PREMATURE AT THIS TIME.   ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

BREAKS IN STRATUS WILL RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF VFR AT
KCID...KMLI...AND KBRL THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS ALREADY
FORMED IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL KNOCK CIGS
DOWN TO 1500-2000 FT AGL. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT KMLI EARLY THIS
AFTN AND HOLD OFF LONGER AT KCID AND KBRL. GENERAL TREND AFTER
06Z-09Z/SATURDAY IS FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR AS CIGS LOWER
TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL AND VSBYS DROP BELOW 3 SM. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY -FZDZ TONIGHT...DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH








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