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000
FXUS63 KDVN 252330
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KABR WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. A LLJ RAN FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE NOCTURNAL MCS DECAYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW AT KOFK WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST TO
KSTL. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WITH 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LACK OF AN
APPARENT TRIGGER. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MIGHT INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF
REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNSET IS FAIRLY HIGH.

LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RESULTING IN MUGGY CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CREATE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BEING RIGHT AROUND
100 DEGREES. THE SITUATION IS MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 MAY NOT BE REALIZED
AS ENERGY WILL GO INTO DRYING OUT THE WET GROUND.

AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE
HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS REALIZED...SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A LARGER
SEVERE STORM COMPLEX.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTH HALF POTENTIALLY
REMAINING DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR TIMING
REGARDING A POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
IF...OR HOW LONG...THE THREAT WILL LINGER PAST 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 18Z 12KM NAM AND THE 12Z NMM/ARW RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS WILL
STILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. LOOKING AT THE SET-UP FOR THE EVENT...A COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCE AN EXISTING BOUNDARY INVOF
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE 12KM NAM IS
ADVERTISING PWAT VALUES AOA 2.5 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS TO BE RATHER
EXTREME...BUT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
INCREASING W/NW WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO POSE A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY HARD HIT AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM SIGOURNEY/FAIRFIELD/KEOSAUQUA INTO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS IN CYCLONIC FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EAST
CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

POST CONVECTIVE LOW CLOUDS OF MVFR TO LOW END VFR WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP BY LATE EVENING BRINGING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT AVIATION FOG OF 4-6
MILES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-BKN
BASES AOA 4K AGL. AFTER 26/20Z...PROB30 GROUP FOR STORMS WITH
ISOLATED MVR/IFR CONDITIONS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE REACHED AT
MLI AND BRL TERMINALS WITH STALLED FRONT NEARBY. LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO LIGHT NE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 252330
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KABR WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. A LLJ RAN FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE NOCTURNAL MCS DECAYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW AT KOFK WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST TO
KSTL. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WITH 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LACK OF AN
APPARENT TRIGGER. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MIGHT INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF
REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNSET IS FAIRLY HIGH.

LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RESULTING IN MUGGY CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CREATE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BEING RIGHT AROUND
100 DEGREES. THE SITUATION IS MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 MAY NOT BE REALIZED
AS ENERGY WILL GO INTO DRYING OUT THE WET GROUND.

AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE
HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS REALIZED...SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A LARGER
SEVERE STORM COMPLEX.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTH HALF POTENTIALLY
REMAINING DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR TIMING
REGARDING A POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
IF...OR HOW LONG...THE THREAT WILL LINGER PAST 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 18Z 12KM NAM AND THE 12Z NMM/ARW RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS WILL
STILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. LOOKING AT THE SET-UP FOR THE EVENT...A COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCE AN EXISTING BOUNDARY INVOF
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE 12KM NAM IS
ADVERTISING PWAT VALUES AOA 2.5 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS TO BE RATHER
EXTREME...BUT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
INCREASING W/NW WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO POSE A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY HARD HIT AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM SIGOURNEY/FAIRFIELD/KEOSAUQUA INTO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS IN CYCLONIC FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EAST
CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

POST CONVECTIVE LOW CLOUDS OF MVFR TO LOW END VFR WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP BY LATE EVENING BRINGING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT AVIATION FOG OF 4-6
MILES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-BKN
BASES AOA 4K AGL. AFTER 26/20Z...PROB30 GROUP FOR STORMS WITH
ISOLATED MVR/IFR CONDITIONS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE REACHED AT
MLI AND BRL TERMINALS WITH STALLED FRONT NEARBY. LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO LIGHT NE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 252023
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KABR WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. A LLJ RAN FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE NOCTURNAL MCS DECAYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW AT KOFK WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST TO
KSTL. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WITH 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LACK OF AN
APPARENT TRIGGER. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MIGHT INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF
REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNSET IS FAIRLY HIGH.

LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RESULTING IN MUGGY CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CREATE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BEING RIGHT AROUND
100 DEGREES. THE SITUATION IS MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 MAY NOT BE REALIZED
AS ENERGY WILL GO INTO DRYING OUT THE WET GROUND.

AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE
HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS REALIZED...SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A LARGER
SEVERE STORM COMPLEX.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTH HALF POTENTIALLY
REMAINING DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR TIMING
REGARDING A POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
IF...OR HOW LONG...THE THREAT WILL LINGER PAST 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 18Z 12KM NAM AND THE 12Z NMM/ARW RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS WILL
STILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. LOOKING AT THE SET-UP FOR THE EVENT...A COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCE AN EXISTING BOUNDARY INVOF
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE 12KM NAM IS
ADVERTISING PWAT VALUES AOA 2.5 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS TO BE RATHER
EXTREME...BUT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
INCREASING W/NW WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO POSE A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY HARD HIT AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM SIGOURNEY/FAIRFIELD/KEOSAUQUA INTO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS IN CYCLONIC FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EAST
CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/26 AS THE NOCTURNAL
TSRA COMPLEX MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET THAT MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY AFFECT A TAF SITE. AFT 06Z/26 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO WET GROUND.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 252023
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN INFERRED 850MB LOW NEAR KABR WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. A LLJ RAN FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE NOCTURNAL MCS DECAYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW AT KOFK WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST TO
KSTL. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WITH 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LACK OF AN
APPARENT TRIGGER. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MIGHT INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF
REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNSET IS FAIRLY HIGH.

LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RESULTING IN MUGGY CONDITIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CREATE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS BEING RIGHT AROUND
100 DEGREES. THE SITUATION IS MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 90 MAY NOT BE REALIZED
AS ENERGY WILL GO INTO DRYING OUT THE WET GROUND.

AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ACHIEVED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE
HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS REALIZED...SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A LARGER
SEVERE STORM COMPLEX.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTH HALF POTENTIALLY
REMAINING DRY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON SIMILAR TIMING
REGARDING A POTENTIAL MCS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
IF...OR HOW LONG...THE THREAT WILL LINGER PAST 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 18Z 12KM NAM AND THE 12Z NMM/ARW RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS WILL
STILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. LOOKING AT THE SET-UP FOR THE EVENT...A COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCE AN EXISTING BOUNDARY INVOF
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE 12KM NAM IS
ADVERTISING PWAT VALUES AOA 2.5 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS TO BE RATHER
EXTREME...BUT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
INCREASING W/NW WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO POSE A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IN THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY HARD HIT AREAS THIS MORNING
FROM SIGOURNEY/FAIRFIELD/KEOSAUQUA INTO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS IN CYCLONIC FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN FAR EAST
CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN WILL BE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/26 AS THE NOCTURNAL
TSRA COMPLEX MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET THAT MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY AFFECT A TAF SITE. AFT 06Z/26 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO WET GROUND.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 251744
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS ESSENTIALLY MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA. A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES HAVE ALLOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX.

FOR THE AFTERNOON SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST OF SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A MESO HIGH OVER NORTHEAST IOWA IS
STARTING TO COLLAPSE WHICH IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTION.

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUILDS IN ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MCS OVER THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. IR SATELLITE SHOWED WARMING
TOPS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WHICH ALSO IS INDICATED ON DOPPLER RADAR
WITH A WEAKENING TREND. THE ENTIRE MCS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR MESO MODEL SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MCS EXITING OUR SE CWA BY 1 PM. MANY AREAS SHOULD PICK
UP 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS STILL WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN SOUTHERN MN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 2.10 INCHES
IN WESTERN IA TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN IL. IR SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO LIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 3 AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WHILE READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...FORCING AND RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AS IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND THE COOL/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH AT NEARLY
15K FT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS MORNING THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OR END THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING AND ONLY SMALL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHILE MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
OUR WEST. MODELS REALLY SURGE THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH +20C NOTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S SW TO THE MID 70S NE.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS (OR LACK OF) THIS
AFTERNOON THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.

TONIGHT...STRONG CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THE STORMS MAY END UP FIRING EAST OF THE DVN CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT-SAT NGT...COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW DECENT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OR CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MID 80S TO NEAR 90F AND DEWPTS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR PM HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.
SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING AFTER 20-21Z
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850 MB COOL FRONTS AND THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
VICINITY OF FRONT AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (0-6KM 35-50 KTS). MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
HAIL RISK SECONDARY AND CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS OR DECENT MESOCYCLONES
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 13KFT AGL...
WHICH POSES RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BACKBUILDING AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH VEERED SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

SUN-SUN NGT...DIGGING PV ANOMALY FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES
TO USHER IN SECONDARY AND STRONGER COOL FRONT SUNDAY PM. WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE PM INTO
EARLY EVE WITH THIS FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE
CWA. NAM AND GFS SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
OF MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE... WHICH OF LATE MEANS
LAST DAY AROUND NORMAL.

MON-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WHICH MAY FEATURE A MORNING OR TWO OF NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE-WED.
CHALLENGE ASIDE FROM TEMPS WILL BE WHETHER ANY PM SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND ANY IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW... BUT TOO
FAR OUT AND PROBS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MUCH MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/26 AS THE NOCTURNAL
TSRA COMPLEX MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET THAT MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY AFFECT A TAF SITE. AFT 06Z/26 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO WET GROUND.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 251744
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS ESSENTIALLY MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA. A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES HAVE ALLOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX.

FOR THE AFTERNOON SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST OF SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A MESO HIGH OVER NORTHEAST IOWA IS
STARTING TO COLLAPSE WHICH IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTION.

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUILDS IN ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MCS OVER THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. IR SATELLITE SHOWED WARMING
TOPS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WHICH ALSO IS INDICATED ON DOPPLER RADAR
WITH A WEAKENING TREND. THE ENTIRE MCS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR MESO MODEL SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MCS EXITING OUR SE CWA BY 1 PM. MANY AREAS SHOULD PICK
UP 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS STILL WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN SOUTHERN MN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 2.10 INCHES
IN WESTERN IA TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN IL. IR SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO LIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 3 AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WHILE READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...FORCING AND RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AS IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND THE COOL/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH AT NEARLY
15K FT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS MORNING THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OR END THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING AND ONLY SMALL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHILE MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
OUR WEST. MODELS REALLY SURGE THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH +20C NOTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S SW TO THE MID 70S NE.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS (OR LACK OF) THIS
AFTERNOON THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.

TONIGHT...STRONG CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THE STORMS MAY END UP FIRING EAST OF THE DVN CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT-SAT NGT...COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW DECENT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OR CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MID 80S TO NEAR 90F AND DEWPTS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR PM HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.
SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING AFTER 20-21Z
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850 MB COOL FRONTS AND THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
VICINITY OF FRONT AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (0-6KM 35-50 KTS). MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
HAIL RISK SECONDARY AND CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS OR DECENT MESOCYCLONES
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 13KFT AGL...
WHICH POSES RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BACKBUILDING AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH VEERED SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

SUN-SUN NGT...DIGGING PV ANOMALY FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES
TO USHER IN SECONDARY AND STRONGER COOL FRONT SUNDAY PM. WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE PM INTO
EARLY EVE WITH THIS FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE
CWA. NAM AND GFS SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
OF MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE... WHICH OF LATE MEANS
LAST DAY AROUND NORMAL.

MON-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WHICH MAY FEATURE A MORNING OR TWO OF NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE-WED.
CHALLENGE ASIDE FROM TEMPS WILL BE WHETHER ANY PM SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND ANY IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW... BUT TOO
FAR OUT AND PROBS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MUCH MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 00Z/26 AS THE NOCTURNAL
TSRA COMPLEX MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET THAT MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY AFFECT A TAF SITE. AFT 06Z/26 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO WET GROUND.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251547
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1047 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A MESO HIGH OVER NORTHEAST IOWA IS
STARTING TO COLLAPSE WHICH IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTION.

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUILDS IN ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MCS OVER THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. IR SATELLITE SHOWED WARMING
TOPS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WHICH ALSO IS INDICATED ON DOPPLER RADAR
WITH A WEAKENING TREND. THE ENTIRE MCS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR MESO MODEL SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MCS EXITING OUR SE CWA BY 1 PM. MANY AREAS SHOULD PICK
UP 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS STILL WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN SOUTHERN MN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 2.10 INCHES
IN WESTERN IA TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN IL. IR SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO LIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 3 AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WHILE READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...FORCING AND RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AS IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND THE COOL/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH AT NEARLY
15K FT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS MORNING THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OR END THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING AND ONLY SMALL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHILE MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
OUR WEST. MODELS REALLY SURGE THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH +20C NOTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S SW TO THE MID 70S NE.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS (OR LACK OF) THIS
AFTERNOON THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.

TONIGHT...STRONG CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THE STORMS MAY END UP FIRING EAST OF THE DVN CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT-SAT NGT...COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW DECENT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OR CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MID 80S TO NEAR 90F AND DEWPTS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR PM HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.
SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING AFTER 20-21Z
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850 MB COOL FRONTS AND THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
VICINITY OF FRONT AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (0-6KM 35-50 KTS). MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
HAIL RISK SECONDARY AND CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS OR DECENT MESOCYCLONES
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 13KFT AGL...
WHICH POSES RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BACKBUILDING AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH VEERED SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

SUN-SUN NGT...DIGGING PV ANOMALY FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES
TO USHER IN SECONDARY AND STRONGER COOL FRONT SUNDAY PM. WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE PM INTO
EARLY EVE WITH THIS FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE
CWA. NAM AND GFS SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
OF MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE... WHICH OF LATE MEANS
LAST DAY AROUND NORMAL.

MON-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WHICH MAY FEATURE A MORNING OR TWO OF NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE-WED.
CHALLENGE ASIDE FROM TEMPS WILL BE WHETHER ANY PM SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND ANY IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW... BUT TOO
FAR OUT AND PROBS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MUCH MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 251547
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1047 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A MESO HIGH OVER NORTHEAST IOWA IS
STARTING TO COLLAPSE WHICH IS CAUSING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WHICH APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTION.

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID DAY AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUILDS IN ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MCS OVER THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. IR SATELLITE SHOWED WARMING
TOPS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WHICH ALSO IS INDICATED ON DOPPLER RADAR
WITH A WEAKENING TREND. THE ENTIRE MCS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR MESO MODEL SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MCS EXITING OUR SE CWA BY 1 PM. MANY AREAS SHOULD PICK
UP 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS STILL WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN SOUTHERN MN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 2.10 INCHES
IN WESTERN IA TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN IL. IR SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO LIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 3 AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WHILE READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...FORCING AND RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AS IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND THE COOL/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH AT NEARLY
15K FT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS MORNING THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OR END THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING AND ONLY SMALL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHILE MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
OUR WEST. MODELS REALLY SURGE THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH +20C NOTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S SW TO THE MID 70S NE.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS (OR LACK OF) THIS
AFTERNOON THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.

TONIGHT...STRONG CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THE STORMS MAY END UP FIRING EAST OF THE DVN CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT-SAT NGT...COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW DECENT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OR CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MID 80S TO NEAR 90F AND DEWPTS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR PM HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.
SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING AFTER 20-21Z
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850 MB COOL FRONTS AND THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
VICINITY OF FRONT AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (0-6KM 35-50 KTS). MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
HAIL RISK SECONDARY AND CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS OR DECENT MESOCYCLONES
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 13KFT AGL...
WHICH POSES RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BACKBUILDING AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH VEERED SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

SUN-SUN NGT...DIGGING PV ANOMALY FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES
TO USHER IN SECONDARY AND STRONGER COOL FRONT SUNDAY PM. WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE PM INTO
EARLY EVE WITH THIS FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE
CWA. NAM AND GFS SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
OF MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE... WHICH OF LATE MEANS
LAST DAY AROUND NORMAL.

MON-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WHICH MAY FEATURE A MORNING OR TWO OF NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE-WED.
CHALLENGE ASIDE FROM TEMPS WILL BE WHETHER ANY PM SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND ANY IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW... BUT TOO
FAR OUT AND PROBS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MUCH MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251202
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MCS OVER THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. IR SATELLITE SHOWED WARMING
TOPS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WHICH ALSO IS INDICATED ON DOPPLER RADAR
WITH A WEAKENING TREND. THE ENTIRE MCS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR MESO MODEL SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MCS EXITING OUR SE CWA BY 1 PM. MANY AREAS SHOULD PICK
UP 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS STILL WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN SOUTHERN MN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 2.10 INCHES
IN WESTERN IA TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN IL. IR SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO LIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 3 AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WHILE READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...FORCING AND RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AS IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND THE COOL/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH AT NEARLY
15K FT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS MORNING THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OR END THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING AND ONLY SMALL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHILE MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
OUR WEST. MODELS REALLY SURGE THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH +20C NOTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S SW TO THE MID 70S NE.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS (OR LACK OF) THIS
AFTERNOON THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.

TONIGHT...STRONG CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THE STORMS MAY END UP FIRING EAST OF THE DVN CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT-SAT NGT...COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW DECENT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OR CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MID 80S TO NEAR 90F AND DEWPTS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR PM HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.
SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING AFTER 20-21Z
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850 MB COOL FRONTS AND THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
VICINITY OF FRONT AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (0-6KM 35-50 KTS). MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
HAIL RISK SECONDARY AND CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS OR DECENT MESOCYCLONES
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 13KFT AGL...
WHICH POSES RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BACKBUILDING AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH VEERED SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

SUN-SUN NGT...DIGGING PV ANOMALY FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES
TO USHER IN SECONDARY AND STRONGER COOL FRONT SUNDAY PM. WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE PM INTO
EARLY EVE WITH THIS FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE
CWA. NAM AND GFS SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
OF MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE... WHICH OF LATE MEANS
LAST DAY AROUND NORMAL.

MON-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WHICH MAY FEATURE A MORNING OR TWO OF NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE-WED.
CHALLENGE ASIDE FROM TEMPS WILL BE WHETHER ANY PM SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND ANY IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW... BUT TOO
FAR OUT AND PROBS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MUCH MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 251202
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MCS OVER THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. IR SATELLITE SHOWED WARMING
TOPS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WHICH ALSO IS INDICATED ON DOPPLER RADAR
WITH A WEAKENING TREND. THE ENTIRE MCS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE HRRR MESO MODEL SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MCS EXITING OUR SE CWA BY 1 PM. MANY AREAS SHOULD PICK
UP 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 1 INCH POSSIBLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS STILL WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN SOUTHERN MN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 2.10 INCHES
IN WESTERN IA TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN IL. IR SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO LIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 3 AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WHILE READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...FORCING AND RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AS IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND THE COOL/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH AT NEARLY
15K FT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS MORNING THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OR END THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING AND ONLY SMALL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHILE MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
OUR WEST. MODELS REALLY SURGE THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH +20C NOTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S SW TO THE MID 70S NE.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS (OR LACK OF) THIS
AFTERNOON THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.

TONIGHT...STRONG CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THE STORMS MAY END UP FIRING EAST OF THE DVN CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT-SAT NGT...COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW DECENT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OR CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MID 80S TO NEAR 90F AND DEWPTS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR PM HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.
SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING AFTER 20-21Z
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850 MB COOL FRONTS AND THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
VICINITY OF FRONT AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (0-6KM 35-50 KTS). MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
HAIL RISK SECONDARY AND CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS OR DECENT MESOCYCLONES
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 13KFT AGL...
WHICH POSES RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BACKBUILDING AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH VEERED SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

SUN-SUN NGT...DIGGING PV ANOMALY FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES
TO USHER IN SECONDARY AND STRONGER COOL FRONT SUNDAY PM. WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE PM INTO
EARLY EVE WITH THIS FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE
CWA. NAM AND GFS SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
OF MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE... WHICH OF LATE MEANS
LAST DAY AROUND NORMAL.

MON-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WHICH MAY FEATURE A MORNING OR TWO OF NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE-WED.
CHALLENGE ASIDE FROM TEMPS WILL BE WHETHER ANY PM SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND ANY IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW... BUT TOO
FAR OUT AND PROBS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MUCH MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 250850
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS STILL WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN SOUTHERN MN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 2.10 INCHES
IN WESTERN IA TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN IL. IR SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO LIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 3 AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WHILE READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...FORCING AND RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AS IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND THE COOL/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH AT NEARLY
15K FT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS MORNING THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OR END THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING AND ONLY SMALL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHILE MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
OUR WEST. MODELS REALLY SURGE THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH +20C NOTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S SW TO THE MID 70S NE.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS (OR LACK OF) THIS
AFTERNOON THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.

TONIGHT...STRONG CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THE STORMS MAY END UP FIRING EAST OF THE DVN CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT-SAT NGT...COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW DECENT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OR CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MID 80S TO NEAR 90F AND DEWPTS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR PM HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.
SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING AFTER 20-21Z
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850 MB COOL FRONTS AND THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
VICINITY OF FRONT AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (0-6KM 35-50 KTS). MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
HAIL RISK SECONDARY AND CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS OR DECENT MESOCYCLONES
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 13KFT AGL...
WHICH POSES RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BACKBUILDING AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH VEERED SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

SUN-SUN NGT...DIGGING PV ANOMALY FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES
TO USHER IN SECONDARY AND STRONGER COOL FRONT SUNDAY PM. WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE PM INTO
EARLY EVE WITH THIS FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE
CWA. NAM AND GFS SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
OF MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE... WHICH OF LATE MEANS
LAST DAY AROUND NORMAL.

MON-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WHICH MAY FEATURE A MORNING OR TWO OF NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE-WED.
CHALLENGE ASIDE FROM TEMPS WILL BE WHETHER ANY PM SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND ANY IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW... BUT TOO
FAR OUT AND PROBS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MUCH MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 25/09Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS. AFT 25/09Z...A LATE
NOCTURNAL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
IOWA AND ILLINOIS. CLOUDS WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH ANY STRONGER TSRA. COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO
INCLUDE IN ANYTHING MORE THAN A VICINITY WORDING IN THE TERMINALS.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MLI AND BRL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z/25.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE/NICHOLS















000
FXUS63 KDVN 250850
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IA AND INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS STILL WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE HIGHEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN SOUTHERN MN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 2.10 INCHES
IN WESTERN IA TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN NORTHERN IL. IR SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE TOPS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY COOL AS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO LIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA.

A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH 3 AM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WHILE READINGS WERE WELL
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES.

TODAY...FORCING AND RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AS IT VEERS INTO THE AREA. DUE
TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND THE COOL/STABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH AT NEARLY
15K FT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS MORNING THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING CAP WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA. THIS WILL DIMINISH OR END THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING AND ONLY SMALL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST WHILE MORE SUNSHINE DEVELOPS IN
OUR WEST. MODELS REALLY SURGE THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH +20C NOTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S SW TO THE MID 70S NE.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS (OR LACK OF) THIS
AFTERNOON THESE READINGS MAY NEED TO BE RE-VISITED.

TONIGHT...STRONG CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVERSPREADS THE CWA EXCEPT
POSSIBLY OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IN OUR EASTERN CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THE STORMS MAY END UP FIRING EAST OF THE DVN CWA.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT-SAT NGT...COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW DECENT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OR CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MID 80S TO NEAR 90F AND DEWPTS UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR PM HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 90 NORTH TO AROUND 100 SOUTH.
SEVERAL FCST SOUNDINGS THOUGH SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING AFTER 20-21Z
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC-850 MB COOL FRONTS AND THEREFORE WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE BY LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80
VICINITY OF FRONT AND ELEVATED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (0-6KM 35-50 KTS). MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE
HAIL RISK SECONDARY AND CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS OR DECENT MESOCYCLONES
GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 13KFT AGL...
WHICH POSES RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2+ INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BACKBUILDING AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH VEERED SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

SUN-SUN NGT...DIGGING PV ANOMALY FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES
TO USHER IN SECONDARY AND STRONGER COOL FRONT SUNDAY PM. WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE PM INTO
EARLY EVE WITH THIS FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE
CWA. NAM AND GFS SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
OF MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY FOR A WHILE... WHICH OF LATE MEANS
LAST DAY AROUND NORMAL.

MON-THU...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WHICH MAY FEATURE A MORNING OR TWO OF NEAR RECORD LOWS TUE-WED.
CHALLENGE ASIDE FROM TEMPS WILL BE WHETHER ANY PM SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND ANY IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW... BUT TOO
FAR OUT AND PROBS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR MUCH MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 25/09Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS. AFT 25/09Z...A LATE
NOCTURNAL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
IOWA AND ILLINOIS. CLOUDS WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH ANY STRONGER TSRA. COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO
INCLUDE IN ANYTHING MORE THAN A VICINITY WORDING IN THE TERMINALS.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MLI AND BRL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z/25.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE/NICHOLS














000
FXUS63 KDVN 250432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTH ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES TO
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
INDICATE SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PERSISTING OVER WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KPHP WITH A WAKE LOW BEHIND THE
MINNESOTA THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR KATY. AN INFERRED BOUNDARY RAN
FROM THE KPHP LOW INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S IN THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WERE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTER SUNSET...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWEST
AREAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

A NEW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THAT IS RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 24/12Z ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HI-RES NMM/ARW SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WHILE THE 12KM NAM
BLOWS UP STORMS IN THE HEART OF THE STRONG CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE STRONG CAPPING...AND TRIM BACK POPS SOMEWHAT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...HOWEVER...WILL
TAP INTO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WOULD POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE A GOOD BET SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 STILL APPEAR FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MASS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 25/09Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS. AFT 25/09Z...A LATE
NOCTURNAL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
IOWA AND ILLINOIS. CLOUDS WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND NON- SEVERE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH ANY STRONGER TSRA. COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
IN ANYTHING MORE THAN A VICINITY WORDING IN THE TERMINALS. SOME CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MLI AND BRL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z/25.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 250432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTH ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES TO
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
INDICATE SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PERSISTING OVER WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KPHP WITH A WAKE LOW BEHIND THE
MINNESOTA THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR KATY. AN INFERRED BOUNDARY RAN
FROM THE KPHP LOW INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S IN THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WERE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTER SUNSET...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWEST
AREAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

A NEW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THAT IS RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 24/12Z ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HI-RES NMM/ARW SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WHILE THE 12KM NAM
BLOWS UP STORMS IN THE HEART OF THE STRONG CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE STRONG CAPPING...AND TRIM BACK POPS SOMEWHAT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...HOWEVER...WILL
TAP INTO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WOULD POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE A GOOD BET SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 STILL APPEAR FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MASS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 25/09Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS. AFT 25/09Z...A LATE
NOCTURNAL COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
IOWA AND ILLINOIS. CLOUDS WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND NON- SEVERE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH ANY STRONGER TSRA. COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE
IN ANYTHING MORE THAN A VICINITY WORDING IN THE TERMINALS. SOME CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MLI AND BRL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z/25.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 242337
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTH ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES TO
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
INDICATE SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PERSISTING OVER WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KPHP WITH A WAKE LOW BEHIND THE
MINNESOTA THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR KATY. AN INFERRED BOUNDARY RAN
FROM THE KPHP LOW INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S IN THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WERE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTER SUNSET...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWEST
AREAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

A NEW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THAT IS RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 24/12Z ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HI-RES NMM/ARW SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WHILE THE 12KM NAM
BLOWS UP STORMS IN THE HEART OF THE STRONG CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE STRONG CAPPING...AND TRIM BACK POPS SOMEWHAT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...HOWEVER...WILL
TAP INTO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WOULD POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE A GOOD BET SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 STILL APPEAR FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MASS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS. AFT 06Z/25...A NOCTURNAL
COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH TSRA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MLI AND BRL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z/25.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 242337
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTH ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES TO
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
INDICATE SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PERSISTING OVER WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KPHP WITH A WAKE LOW BEHIND THE
MINNESOTA THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR KATY. AN INFERRED BOUNDARY RAN
FROM THE KPHP LOW INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S IN THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WERE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTER SUNSET...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWEST
AREAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

A NEW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THAT IS RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 24/12Z ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HI-RES NMM/ARW SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WHILE THE 12KM NAM
BLOWS UP STORMS IN THE HEART OF THE STRONG CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE STRONG CAPPING...AND TRIM BACK POPS SOMEWHAT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...HOWEVER...WILL
TAP INTO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WOULD POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE A GOOD BET SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 STILL APPEAR FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MASS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS. AFT 06Z/25...A NOCTURNAL
COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH TSRA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MLI AND BRL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z/25.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 241954
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTH ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES TO
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
INDICATE SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PERSISTING OVER WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KPHP WITH A WAKE LOW BEHIND THE
MINNESOTA THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR KATY. AN INFERRED BOUNDARY RAN
FROM THE KPHP LOW INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S IN THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WERE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTER SUNSET...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWEST
AREAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

A NEW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THAT IS RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 24/12Z ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HI-RES NMM/ARW SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WHILE THE 12KM NAM
BLOWS UP STORMS IN THE HEART OF THE STRONG CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE STRONG CAPPING...AND TRIM BACK POPS SOMEWHAT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...HOWEVER...WILL
TAP INTO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WOULD POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE A GOOD BET SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 STILL APPEAR FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MASS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AFT 06Z/25 A NOCTURNAL TSRA COMPLEX
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT AFT
06Z/25 BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TSRA.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 241954
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTH ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES TO
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
INDICATE SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PERSISTING OVER WESTERN IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW NEAR KPHP WITH A WAKE LOW BEHIND THE
MINNESOTA THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR KATY. AN INFERRED BOUNDARY RAN
FROM THE KPHP LOW INTO OKLAHOMA AND THEN EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 60S IN THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WERE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTER SUNSET...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWEST
AREAS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

A NEW NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THAT IS RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 24/12Z ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HI-RES NMM/ARW SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WHILE THE 12KM NAM
BLOWS UP STORMS IN THE HEART OF THE STRONG CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE STRONG CAPPING...AND TRIM BACK POPS SOMEWHAT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...HOWEVER...WILL
TAP INTO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WOULD POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE A GOOD BET SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 STILL APPEAR FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SKIRTING THE FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR MASS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AFT 06Z/25 A NOCTURNAL TSRA COMPLEX
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT AFT
06Z/25 BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TSRA.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 241738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST SO FAR LOOKS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MN/IA
BORDER TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AREA WAS UNDER A NW
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FURTHER WEST...AN
UPPER LOW WAS DEEPENING JUST OFF THE WA COAST. HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKED THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE FEATURE PUSHING
EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND RETURN A
WARMER...AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AN MCS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY LATE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIGHT EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE SAME AIR MASS AS YESTERDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS PLUS MINOR
WARMING...HAVE GONE NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S OVER NW IL TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE FLATTENING
RIDGE OUT WEST COMBINES WITH STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING
ALOFT ON A 40 KT 850 MB JET TO TRIGGER AN MCS OVER NORTHERN IA AND
SOUTHERN MN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING EAST
AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG CORFIDI VECTORS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING. HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING AND POPS SOME FOLLOWING
A DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING INITIALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE FAR NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE
LIMITED LATE EVENING CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WITH
CHANCES ELSEWHERE TOWARD MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AN OUTFLOW
THAT MAY EXPAND AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SUNRISE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST ELEVATED THETAE ADVECTION
AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY FOCUSED OVER N CENTRAL INTO NE
IA IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LOW AND HAVE KEPT QPF IN A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 218 IN EASTERN IA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS DO DEVELOPING STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
TOWARD 12Z...WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN IA TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATE ONSET OF RAIN AND
INITIAL DRY AIR MASS AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MCS FROM SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WILL PERSIST
EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHAT THIS SYSTEM
LEAVES IN ITS WAKE WILL DETERMINE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THE CAP DOES NOT RESTRAIN IT. THEN
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
STALLS IN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE SAME CAP
CAVEAT...THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATTER TWO THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS.

PWS WILL BE HIGH THOUGH NOT LIKELY AS GENEROUS AS DEPICTED IN THE
NAM AND GFS. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE...THE SOIL HAS THE CAPACITY TO BUFFER THE
RAIN AND THUS MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WHILE CAPE/SHEAR
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUS...A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ARE LIMITING
FACTORS.

SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS TO OUR NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DON`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR
POSSIBLE POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
AND DRY WEATHER WHICH HAS BEEN SO COMMONPLACE THIS SUMMER. THAT
LEADS INTO WEEK TWO.  SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AFT 06Z/25 A NOCTURNAL TSRA COMPLEX
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT AFT
06Z/25 BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY...JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

WEEK 2...
CPCS OUTLOOK GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST INDICATES THE
LIKELY CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FAVOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. EXCELLENT GRAPHICS
DEPICTING THIS INFORMATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/814DAY/INTERACTIVE/INDEX.PHP
ALL IN LOWER CASE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...WOLF







000
FXUS63 KDVN 241738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST SO FAR LOOKS ON TRACK WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MN/IA
BORDER TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AREA WAS UNDER A NW
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FURTHER WEST...AN
UPPER LOW WAS DEEPENING JUST OFF THE WA COAST. HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKED THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE FEATURE PUSHING
EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND RETURN A
WARMER...AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AN MCS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY LATE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIGHT EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE SAME AIR MASS AS YESTERDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS PLUS MINOR
WARMING...HAVE GONE NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S OVER NW IL TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE FLATTENING
RIDGE OUT WEST COMBINES WITH STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING
ALOFT ON A 40 KT 850 MB JET TO TRIGGER AN MCS OVER NORTHERN IA AND
SOUTHERN MN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING EAST
AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG CORFIDI VECTORS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING. HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING AND POPS SOME FOLLOWING
A DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING INITIALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE FAR NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE
LIMITED LATE EVENING CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WITH
CHANCES ELSEWHERE TOWARD MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AN OUTFLOW
THAT MAY EXPAND AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SUNRISE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST ELEVATED THETAE ADVECTION
AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY FOCUSED OVER N CENTRAL INTO NE
IA IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LOW AND HAVE KEPT QPF IN A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 218 IN EASTERN IA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS DO DEVELOPING STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
TOWARD 12Z...WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN IA TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATE ONSET OF RAIN AND
INITIAL DRY AIR MASS AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MCS FROM SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WILL PERSIST
EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHAT THIS SYSTEM
LEAVES IN ITS WAKE WILL DETERMINE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THE CAP DOES NOT RESTRAIN IT. THEN
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
STALLS IN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE SAME CAP
CAVEAT...THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATTER TWO THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS.

PWS WILL BE HIGH THOUGH NOT LIKELY AS GENEROUS AS DEPICTED IN THE
NAM AND GFS. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE...THE SOIL HAS THE CAPACITY TO BUFFER THE
RAIN AND THUS MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WHILE CAPE/SHEAR
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUS...A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ARE LIMITING
FACTORS.

SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS TO OUR NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DON`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR
POSSIBLE POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
AND DRY WEATHER WHICH HAS BEEN SO COMMONPLACE THIS SUMMER. THAT
LEADS INTO WEEK TWO.  SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AFT 06Z/25 A NOCTURNAL TSRA COMPLEX
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT AFT
06Z/25 BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY...JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

WEEK 2...
CPCS OUTLOOK GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST INDICATES THE
LIKELY CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FAVOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. EXCELLENT GRAPHICS
DEPICTING THIS INFORMATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/814DAY/INTERACTIVE/INDEX.PHP
ALL IN LOWER CASE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...WOLF






000
FXUS63 KDVN 241114
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AREA WAS UNDER A NW
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FURTHER WEST...AN
UPPER LOW WAS DEEPENING JUST OFF THE WA COAST. HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKED THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE FEATURE PUSHING
EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND RETURN A
WARMER...AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AN MCS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY LATE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIGHT EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE SAME AIR MASS AS YESTERDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS PLUS MINOR
WARMING...HAVE GONE NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S OVER NW IL TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE FLATTENING
RIDGE OUT WEST COMBINES WITH STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING
ALOFT ON A 40 KT 850 MB JET TO TRIGGER AN MCS OVER NORTHERN IA AND
SOUTHERN MN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING EAST
AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG CORFIDI VECTORS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING. HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING AND POPS SOME FOLLOWING
A DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING INITIALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE FAR NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE
LIMITED LATE EVENING CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WITH
CHANCES ELSEWHERE TOWARD MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AN OUTFLOW
THAT MAY EXPAND AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SUNRISE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST ELEVATED THETAE ADVECTION
AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY FOCUSED OVER N CENTRAL INTO NE
IA IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LOW AND HAVE KEPT QPF IN A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 218 IN EASTERN IA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS DO DEVELOPING STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
TOWARD 12Z...WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN IA TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATE ONSET OF RAIN AND
INITIAL DRY AIR MASS AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MCS FROM SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WILL PERSIST
EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHAT THIS SYSTEM
LEAVES IN ITS WAKE WILL DETERMINE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THE CAP DOES NOT RESTRAIN IT. THEN
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
STALLS IN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE SAME CAP
CAVEAT...THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATTER TWO THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS.

PWS WILL BE HIGH THOUGH NOT LIKELY AS GENEROUS AS DEPICTED IN THE
NAM AND GFS. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE...THE SOIL HAS THE CAPACITY TO BUFFER THE
RAIN AND THUS MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WHILE CAPE/SHEAR
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUS...A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ARE LIMITING
FACTORS.

SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS TO OUR NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DON`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR
POSSIBLE POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
AND DRY WEATHER WHICH HAS BEEN SO COMMONPLACE THIS SUMMER. THAT
LEADS INTO WEEK TWO.  SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CID TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY THE STORMS AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MLI AND
DBQ...WHERE THIS POTENTIAL IS INCLUDED IN PROB30 GROUPS. THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT STORMS MAY REACH THE BRL SITE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF THIS CYCLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY...JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

WEEK 2...
CPCS OUTLOOK GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST INDICATES THE
LIKELY CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FAVOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. EXCELLENT GRAPHICS
DEPICTING THIS INFORMATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/814DAY/INTERACTIVE/INDEX.PHP
ALL IN LOWER CASE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...WOLF








000
FXUS63 KDVN 241114
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AREA WAS UNDER A NW
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FURTHER WEST...AN
UPPER LOW WAS DEEPENING JUST OFF THE WA COAST. HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKED THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE FEATURE PUSHING
EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND RETURN A
WARMER...AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AN MCS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY LATE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIGHT EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE SAME AIR MASS AS YESTERDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS PLUS MINOR
WARMING...HAVE GONE NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S OVER NW IL TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE FLATTENING
RIDGE OUT WEST COMBINES WITH STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING
ALOFT ON A 40 KT 850 MB JET TO TRIGGER AN MCS OVER NORTHERN IA AND
SOUTHERN MN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING EAST
AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG CORFIDI VECTORS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING. HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING AND POPS SOME FOLLOWING
A DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING INITIALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE FAR NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE
LIMITED LATE EVENING CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WITH
CHANCES ELSEWHERE TOWARD MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AN OUTFLOW
THAT MAY EXPAND AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SUNRISE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST ELEVATED THETAE ADVECTION
AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY FOCUSED OVER N CENTRAL INTO NE
IA IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LOW AND HAVE KEPT QPF IN A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 218 IN EASTERN IA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS DO DEVELOPING STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
TOWARD 12Z...WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN IA TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATE ONSET OF RAIN AND
INITIAL DRY AIR MASS AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MCS FROM SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WILL PERSIST
EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHAT THIS SYSTEM
LEAVES IN ITS WAKE WILL DETERMINE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THE CAP DOES NOT RESTRAIN IT. THEN
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
STALLS IN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE SAME CAP
CAVEAT...THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATTER TWO THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS.

PWS WILL BE HIGH THOUGH NOT LIKELY AS GENEROUS AS DEPICTED IN THE
NAM AND GFS. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE...THE SOIL HAS THE CAPACITY TO BUFFER THE
RAIN AND THUS MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WHILE CAPE/SHEAR
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUS...A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ARE LIMITING
FACTORS.

SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS TO OUR NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DON`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR
POSSIBLE POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
AND DRY WEATHER WHICH HAS BEEN SO COMMONPLACE THIS SUMMER. THAT
LEADS INTO WEEK TWO.  SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CID TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY THE STORMS AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MLI AND
DBQ...WHERE THIS POTENTIAL IS INCLUDED IN PROB30 GROUPS. THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT STORMS MAY REACH THE BRL SITE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF THIS CYCLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY...JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

WEEK 2...
CPCS OUTLOOK GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST INDICATES THE
LIKELY CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FAVOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. EXCELLENT GRAPHICS
DEPICTING THIS INFORMATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/814DAY/INTERACTIVE/INDEX.PHP
ALL IN LOWER CASE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...WOLF







000
FXUS63 KDVN 240819
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AREA WAS UNDER A NW
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FURTHER WEST...AN
UPPER LOW WAS DEEPENING JUST OFF THE WA COAST. HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKED THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE FEATURE PUSHING
EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND RETURN A
WARMER...AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AN MCS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY LATE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIGHT EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE SAME AIR MASS AS YESTERDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS PLUS MINOR
WARMING...HAVE GONE NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S OVER NW IL TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE FLATTENING
RIDGE OUT WEST COMBINES WITH STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING
ALOFT ON A 40 KT 850 MB JET TO TRIGGER AN MCS OVER NORTHERN IA AND
SOUTHERN MN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING EAST
AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG CORFIDI VECTORS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING. HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING AND POPS SOME FOLLOWING
A DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING INITIALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE FAR NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE
LIMITED LATE EVENING CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WITH
CHANCES ELSEWHERE TOWARD MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AN OUTFLOW
THAT MAY EXPAND AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SUNRISE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST ELEVATED THETAE ADVECTION
AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY FOCUSED OVER N CENTRAL INTO NE
IA IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LOW AND HAVE KEPT QPF IN A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 218 IN EASTERN IA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS DO DEVELOPING STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
TOWARD 12Z...WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN IA TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATE ONSET OF RAIN AND
INITIAL DRY AIR MASS AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MCS FROM SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WILL PERSIST
EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHAT THIS SYSTEM
LEAVES IN ITS WAKE WILL DETERMINE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THE CAP DOES NOT RESTRAIN IT. THEN
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
STALLS IN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE SAME CAP
CAVEAT...THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATTER TWO THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS.

PWS WILL BE HIGH THOUGH NOT LIKELY AS GENEROUS AS DEPICTED IN THE
NAM AND GFS. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE...THE SOIL HAS THE CAPACITY TO BUFFER THE
RAIN AND THUS MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WHILE CAPE/SHEAR
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUS...A
VERY MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ARE LIMITING
FACTORS.

SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS TO OUR NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DON`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR
POSSIBLE POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
AND DRY WEATHER WHICH HAS BEEN SO COMMONPLACE THIS SUMMER. THAT
LEADS INTO WEEK TWO.  SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/06Z. BASED ON T/TD SPREADS OF 3-7 DEGREES AT 04Z
AND CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES....PATCHY LIGHT AVIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING WITH MVFR TO HIGHER END IFR CONDITIONS AND ARE INCLUDED
AS A TEMPO GROUP IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. WINDS CALM TO VERY LIGHT EAST
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AM. SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY...JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

WEEK 2...
CPCS OUTLOOK GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST INDICATES THE
LIKELY CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FAVOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. EXCELLENT GRAPHICS
DEPICTING THIS INFORMATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/814DAY/INTERACTIVE/INDEX.PHP
ALL IN LOWER CASE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...WOLF







000
FXUS63 KDVN 240819
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
319 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE AREA WAS UNDER A NW
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. FURTHER WEST...AN
UPPER LOW WAS DEEPENING JUST OFF THE WA COAST. HEIGHT FALLS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW BACKED THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE FEATURE PUSHING
EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND RETURN A
WARMER...AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AN MCS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY LATE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIGHT EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE SAME AIR MASS AS YESTERDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY/S HIGHS PLUS MINOR
WARMING...HAVE GONE NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
70S OVER NW IL TO THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE FLATTENING
RIDGE OUT WEST COMBINES WITH STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING
ALOFT ON A 40 KT 850 MB JET TO TRIGGER AN MCS OVER NORTHERN IA AND
SOUTHERN MN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING EAST
AND THEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG CORFIDI VECTORS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD MORNING. HAVE FINE TUNED TIMING AND POPS SOME FOLLOWING
A DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING INITIALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE FAR NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE
LIMITED LATE EVENING CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL IA WITH
CHANCES ELSEWHERE TOWARD MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AN OUTFLOW
THAT MAY EXPAND AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SUNRISE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST ELEVATED THETAE ADVECTION
AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY FOCUSED OVER N CENTRAL INTO NE
IA IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LOW AND HAVE KEPT QPF IN A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 218 IN EASTERN IA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS DO DEVELOPING STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
TOWARD 12Z...WHICH COULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN IA TOWARD SUNRISE. THE LATE ONSET OF RAIN AND
INITIAL DRY AIR MASS AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MCS FROM SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WILL PERSIST
EARLY FRIDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHAT THIS SYSTEM
LEAVES IN ITS WAKE WILL DETERMINE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THE CAP DOES NOT RESTRAIN IT. THEN
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
STALLS IN OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH THE SAME CAP
CAVEAT...THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATTER TWO THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES...HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS.

PWS WILL BE HIGH THOUGH NOT LIKELY AS GENEROUS AS DEPICTED IN THE
NAM AND GFS. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE...THE SOIL HAS THE CAPACITY TO BUFFER THE
RAIN AND THUS MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WHILE CAPE/SHEAR
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUS...A
VERY MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP ARE LIMITING
FACTORS.

SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN SWINGING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS TO OUR NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DON`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS FOR
POSSIBLE POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
AND DRY WEATHER WHICH HAS BEEN SO COMMONPLACE THIS SUMMER. THAT
LEADS INTO WEEK TWO.  SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/06Z. BASED ON T/TD SPREADS OF 3-7 DEGREES AT 04Z
AND CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES....PATCHY LIGHT AVIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING WITH MVFR TO HIGHER END IFR CONDITIONS AND ARE INCLUDED
AS A TEMPO GROUP IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. WINDS CALM TO VERY LIGHT EAST
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AM. SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY...JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

WEEK 2...
CPCS OUTLOOK GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST INDICATES THE
LIKELY CONTINUATION OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FAVOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. EXCELLENT GRAPHICS
DEPICTING THIS INFORMATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ARE AVAILABLE AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/814DAY/INTERACTIVE/INDEX.PHP
ALL IN LOWER CASE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...WOLF








000
FXUS63 KDVN 240435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DUMP DOWN
ACRS WI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FETCH CONTINUING DRY/COOLING INFUSION ACRS THE
REGION. WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT DRYING
INFLUENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED IN WITH UPSTREAM LOW 50 SFC DPTS
ADVECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTER DIURNAL CELLULAR CU DECAYS
FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...DRIER SFC DPTS AND COOLING
COLUMN ALL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLE COOL NIGHT ACRS THE CWA. THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 50S
POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA IN LOWER DPT POOL
CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. THE H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE EVEN SUPPORTS SOME
UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS SUCH AS COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL BE
ADVERTISING CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AT MLI...BUT OTHER CLIMATE SITES
THE LOWS SHOULD FALL 3-5+ DEGREES SHORT. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG
WORDING GOING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR BIT MORE OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z...BUT WONDER IF TODAY/S DRYING
AND LOWERING DPTS MAY ALLEVIATE THAT. FOG MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO
THE RVR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...THE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE
REGION AND TOWARD THE GRT LKS...WHILE STEERING MID LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW ORGANIZES ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY TO LEE OF WESTERN PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE INHERENT WEAKER MIXING REGIME UNDER PASSING
RIDGE AXIS...WILL STILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER OF TEMP GUIDANCE HIGHS
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES...DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CELLULAR CU THAT FORMS AGAIN. PLUS THERE IS THE CHC
THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DUMP SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS OFF NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTION DOWN ACRS THE CWA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FILTERING THE INSOLATION SOME.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN POINTING
TO A POTENTIAL MCS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MCS DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS INDICATE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTING INTO THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
PWAT`S AROUND 2 INCHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GENERAL 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH RAINS SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS OF LATE...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. THE FOCUS OF THE DECAYING MCS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...THE
IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPPING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE FRINGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPS.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/06Z. BASED ON T/TD SPREADS OF 3-7 DEGREES AT 04Z
AND CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES....PATCHY LIGHT AVIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING WITH MVFR TO HIGHER END IFR CONDITIONS AND ARE INCLUDED
AS A TEMPO GROUP IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. WINDS CALM TO VERY LIGHT EAST
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AM. SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS









000
FXUS63 KDVN 240435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DUMP DOWN
ACRS WI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FETCH CONTINUING DRY/COOLING INFUSION ACRS THE
REGION. WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT DRYING
INFLUENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED IN WITH UPSTREAM LOW 50 SFC DPTS
ADVECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTER DIURNAL CELLULAR CU DECAYS
FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...DRIER SFC DPTS AND COOLING
COLUMN ALL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLE COOL NIGHT ACRS THE CWA. THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 50S
POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA IN LOWER DPT POOL
CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. THE H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE EVEN SUPPORTS SOME
UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS SUCH AS COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL BE
ADVERTISING CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AT MLI...BUT OTHER CLIMATE SITES
THE LOWS SHOULD FALL 3-5+ DEGREES SHORT. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG
WORDING GOING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR BIT MORE OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z...BUT WONDER IF TODAY/S DRYING
AND LOWERING DPTS MAY ALLEVIATE THAT. FOG MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO
THE RVR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...THE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE
REGION AND TOWARD THE GRT LKS...WHILE STEERING MID LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW ORGANIZES ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY TO LEE OF WESTERN PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE INHERENT WEAKER MIXING REGIME UNDER PASSING
RIDGE AXIS...WILL STILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER OF TEMP GUIDANCE HIGHS
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES...DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CELLULAR CU THAT FORMS AGAIN. PLUS THERE IS THE CHC
THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DUMP SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS OFF NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTION DOWN ACRS THE CWA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FILTERING THE INSOLATION SOME.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN POINTING
TO A POTENTIAL MCS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MCS DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS INDICATE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTING INTO THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
PWAT`S AROUND 2 INCHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GENERAL 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH RAINS SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS OF LATE...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. THE FOCUS OF THE DECAYING MCS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...THE
IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPPING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE FRINGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPS.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/06Z. BASED ON T/TD SPREADS OF 3-7 DEGREES AT 04Z
AND CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES....PATCHY LIGHT AVIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING WITH MVFR TO HIGHER END IFR CONDITIONS AND ARE INCLUDED
AS A TEMPO GROUP IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. WINDS CALM TO VERY LIGHT EAST
OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AM. SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 232332
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DUMP DOWN
ACRS WI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FETCH CONTINUING DRY/COOLING INFUSION ACRS THE
REGION. WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT DRYING
INFLUENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED IN WITH UPSTREAM LOW 50 SFC DPTS
ADVECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTER DIURNAL CELLULAR CU DECAYS
FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...DRIER SFC DPTS AND COOLING
COLUMN ALL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLE COOL NIGHT ACRS THE CWA. THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 50S
POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA IN LOWER DPT POOL
CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. THE H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE EVEN SUPPORTS SOME
UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS SUCH AS COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL BE
ADVERTISING CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AT MLI...BUT OTHER CLIMATE SITES
THE LOWS SHOULD FALL 3-5+ DEGREES SHORT. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG
WORDING GOING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR BIT MORE OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z...BUT WONDER IF TODAY/S DRYING
AND LOWERING DPTS MAY ALLEVIATE THAT. FOG MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO
THE RVR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...THE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE
REGION AND TOWARD THE GRT LKS...WHILE STEERING MID LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW ORGANIZES ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY TO LEE OF WESTERN PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE INHERENT WEAKER MIXING REGIME UNDER PASSING
RIDGE AXIS...WILL STILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER OF TEMP GUIDANCE HIGHS
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES...DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CELLULAR CU THAT FORMS AGAIN. PLUS THERE IS THE CHC
THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DUMP SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS OFF NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTION DOWN ACRS THE CWA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FILTERING THE INSOLATION SOME.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN POINTING
TO A POTENTIAL MCS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MCS DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS INDICATE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTING INTO THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
PWAT`S AROUND 2 INCHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GENERAL 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH RAINS SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS OF LATE...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. THE FOCUS OF THE DECAYING MCS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...THE
IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPPING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE FRINGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPS.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST 25/00Z. PATCHY LIGHT AVIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP IN RIVER VALLEY/S
TOWARD MORNING BUT RISK TOO LOW DUE TO CURRENT TEMP AND DEWPOINTS SPREADS
AS OF 23Z ARE TO WIDE TO CONSIDER IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. WINDS LIGHT
NE TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AM. SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 232332
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DUMP DOWN
ACRS WI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FETCH CONTINUING DRY/COOLING INFUSION ACRS THE
REGION. WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT DRYING
INFLUENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED IN WITH UPSTREAM LOW 50 SFC DPTS
ADVECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTER DIURNAL CELLULAR CU DECAYS
FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...DRIER SFC DPTS AND COOLING
COLUMN ALL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLE COOL NIGHT ACRS THE CWA. THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 50S
POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA IN LOWER DPT POOL
CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. THE H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE EVEN SUPPORTS SOME
UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS SUCH AS COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL BE
ADVERTISING CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AT MLI...BUT OTHER CLIMATE SITES
THE LOWS SHOULD FALL 3-5+ DEGREES SHORT. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG
WORDING GOING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR BIT MORE OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z...BUT WONDER IF TODAY/S DRYING
AND LOWERING DPTS MAY ALLEVIATE THAT. FOG MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO
THE RVR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...THE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE
REGION AND TOWARD THE GRT LKS...WHILE STEERING MID LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW ORGANIZES ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY TO LEE OF WESTERN PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE INHERENT WEAKER MIXING REGIME UNDER PASSING
RIDGE AXIS...WILL STILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER OF TEMP GUIDANCE HIGHS
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES...DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CELLULAR CU THAT FORMS AGAIN. PLUS THERE IS THE CHC
THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DUMP SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS OFF NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTION DOWN ACRS THE CWA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FILTERING THE INSOLATION SOME.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN POINTING
TO A POTENTIAL MCS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MCS DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS INDICATE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTING INTO THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
PWAT`S AROUND 2 INCHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GENERAL 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH RAINS SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS OF LATE...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. THE FOCUS OF THE DECAYING MCS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...THE
IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPPING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE FRINGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPS.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST 25/00Z. PATCHY LIGHT AVIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP IN RIVER VALLEY/S
TOWARD MORNING BUT RISK TOO LOW DUE TO CURRENT TEMP AND DEWPOINTS SPREADS
AS OF 23Z ARE TO WIDE TO CONSIDER IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. WINDS LIGHT
NE TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AM. SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED MID DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 232016
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DUMP DOWN
ACRS WI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FETCH CONTINUING DRY/COOLING INFUSION ACRS THE
REGION. WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT DRYING
INFLUENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED IN WITH UPSTREAM LOW 50 SFC DPTS
ADVECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTER DIURNAL CELLULAR CU DECAYS
FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...DRIER SFC DPTS AND COOLING
COLUMN ALL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLE COOL NIGHT ACRS THE CWA. THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 50S
POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA IN LOWER DPT POOL
CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. THE H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE EVEN SUPPORTS SOME
UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS SUCH AS COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL BE
ADVERTISING CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AT MLI...BUT OTHER CLIMATE SITES
THE LOWS SHOULD FALL 3-5+ DEGREES SHORT. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG
WORDING GOING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR BIT MORE OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z...BUT WONDER IF TODAY/S DRYING
AND LOWERING DPTS MAY ALLEVIATE THAT. FOG MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO
THE RVR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...THE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE
REGION AND TOWARD THE GRT LKS...WHILE STEERING MID LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW ORGANIZES ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY TO LEE OF WESTERN PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE INHERENT WEAKER MIXING REGIME UNDER PASSING
RIDGE AXIS...WILL STILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER OF TEMP GUIDANCE HIGHS
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES...DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CELLULAR CU THAT FORMS AGAIN. PLUS THERE IS THE CHC
THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DUMP SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS OFF NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTION DOWN ACRS THE CWA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FILTERING THE INSOLATION SOME.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN POINTING
TO A POTENTIAL MCS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MCS DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS INDICATE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTING INTO THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
PWAT`S AROUND 2 INCHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GENERAL 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH RAINS SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS OF LATE...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. THE FOCUS OF THE DECAYING MCS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...THE
IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPPING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE FRINGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPS.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

DIURNAL CELLULAR VFR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON TO
DECAY THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACRS MN INTO WI WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 8-14KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS ACRS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GO LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO FORM IN THE VCNTY OF A FEW TAF SITES AND WILL
KEEP THE CONTINUITY OF ADVERTISING FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP AT MLI AND
CID. BUT IT COULD FORM AT BRL AS WELL. SOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AT CID OF 5-8 KTS BY LATE THU MORNING...OTHERWISE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME TO CONTINUE OUT OF TONIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 232016
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE TO DUMP DOWN
ACRS WI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FETCH CONTINUING DRY/COOLING INFUSION ACRS THE
REGION. WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT DRYING
INFLUENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED IN WITH UPSTREAM LOW 50 SFC DPTS
ADVECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AFTER DIURNAL CELLULAR CU DECAYS
FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...DRIER SFC DPTS AND COOLING
COLUMN ALL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLE COOL NIGHT ACRS THE CWA. THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME LOW TO MID 50S
POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA IN LOWER DPT POOL
CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. THE H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE EVEN SUPPORTS SOME
UPPER 40S IN SOME SPOTS SUCH AS COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL BE
ADVERTISING CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS AT MLI...BUT OTHER CLIMATE SITES
THE LOWS SHOULD FALL 3-5+ DEGREES SHORT. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG
WORDING GOING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR BIT MORE OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09Z...BUT WONDER IF TODAY/S DRYING
AND LOWERING DPTS MAY ALLEVIATE THAT. FOG MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO
THE RVR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...THE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACRS THE
REGION AND TOWARD THE GRT LKS...WHILE STEERING MID LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW ORGANIZES ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY TO LEE OF WESTERN PLAINS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. DESPITE INHERENT WEAKER MIXING REGIME UNDER PASSING
RIDGE AXIS...WILL STILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER OF TEMP GUIDANCE HIGHS
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES...DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CELLULAR CU THAT FORMS AGAIN. PLUS THERE IS THE CHC
THAT THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY DUMP SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS OFF NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE-RIDING CONVECTION DOWN ACRS THE CWA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FILTERING THE INSOLATION SOME.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE CONVECTIVE
TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN POINTING
TO A POTENTIAL MCS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MCS DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS INDICATE A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
POINTING INTO THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
PWAT`S AROUND 2 INCHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GENERAL 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH RAINS SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS OF LATE...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. THE FOCUS OF THE DECAYING MCS IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...THE
IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ON THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPPING OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE FAR NORTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE FRINGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER 700MB TEMPS.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

DIURNAL CELLULAR VFR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON TO
DECAY THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACRS MN INTO WI WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 8-14KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS ACRS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GO LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO FORM IN THE VCNTY OF A FEW TAF SITES AND WILL
KEEP THE CONTINUITY OF ADVERTISING FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP AT MLI AND
CID. BUT IT COULD FORM AT BRL AS WELL. SOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AT CID OF 5-8 KTS BY LATE THU MORNING...OTHERWISE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME TO CONTINUE OUT OF TONIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 24...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1957
CEDAR RAPIDS...50 IN 1927
DUBUQUE........51 IN 2003
BURLINGTON.....51 IN 2003

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12









000
FXUS63 KDVN 231744
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM NEAR SOUTH BEND THROUGH ST LOUIS
INTO SE KS AT 2 AM. AREA RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND OHIO. THE POST-FRONTAL TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN RATHER SLOW TO TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL...
WHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR BEHIND IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER SE MANITOBA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PROVIDING A SHARP CHANGE FROM TUESDAY/S HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
ALOFT...00Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST PERIMETER OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP RIDGE
RUNNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL WEST OF THE AREA IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ALLOW THE CANADIAN HIGH TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. TODAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL PULL YESTERDAY/S AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST MN AND
NORTHERN WI SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
DEWPOINTS LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY AFTERNOON. BASED
ON THIS TRAJECTORY...MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN WI BY
MORNING. RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RATHER COOL NIGHT FOR LATE JULY WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND HAVE ADDED MENTION FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL...CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER MORE LIKE A TRANSITION SEASON RATHER THAN MID
SUMMER IS SETTING UP FOR OUR AREA IN THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IS THE FIRST
CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE TAPERED POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST
AND LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST IN LINE WITH LOW-LEVEL FORCING. HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY DUE TO LACK OF
CAPE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE 850
MB BOUNDARY.  MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THE NAM PROG OF 1.5
INCH PLUS PWS LOOKING REASONABLE.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM MOVE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE 850 MB
THERMAL-MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WAVE. DECENT CAPE...MODERATE-HIGH SHEAR
AND HEFTY PWS ARE PROGGED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THUS BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE A POTENTIAL THREAT...THOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

SUNDAY...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE TWO. QUICK LOOK AT
THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IT HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THUS
PRECIP MAY LINGER SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLING
INTO THE AREA WILL DELIVER MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. THERE IS A HINT OF RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE WAA-DRIVEN
STORMS LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT IS DAY 7.  WOLF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

DIURNAL CELLULAR VFR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON TO
DECAY THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACRS MN INTO WI WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 8-14KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS ACRS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GO LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO FORM IN THE VCNTY OF A FEW TAF SITES AND WILL
KEEP THE CONTINUITY OF ADVERTISING FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP AT MLI AND
CID. BUT IT COULD FORM AT BRL AS WELL. SOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AT CID OF 5-8 KTS BY LATE THU MORNING...OTHERWISE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME TO CONTINUE OUT OF TONIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CPC WEEK 2 OUTLOOK INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THE END OF JULY INTO EARLY
AUGUST. ODDS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THAT SAME
TIME FRAME.  WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...WOLF








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231744
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM NEAR SOUTH BEND THROUGH ST LOUIS
INTO SE KS AT 2 AM. AREA RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND OHIO. THE POST-FRONTAL TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN RATHER SLOW TO TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL...
WHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR BEHIND IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER SE MANITOBA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PROVIDING A SHARP CHANGE FROM TUESDAY/S HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
ALOFT...00Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST PERIMETER OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP RIDGE
RUNNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL WEST OF THE AREA IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ALLOW THE CANADIAN HIGH TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. TODAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL PULL YESTERDAY/S AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST MN AND
NORTHERN WI SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
DEWPOINTS LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY AFTERNOON. BASED
ON THIS TRAJECTORY...MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN WI BY
MORNING. RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RATHER COOL NIGHT FOR LATE JULY WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND HAVE ADDED MENTION FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL...CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER MORE LIKE A TRANSITION SEASON RATHER THAN MID
SUMMER IS SETTING UP FOR OUR AREA IN THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IS THE FIRST
CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE TAPERED POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST
AND LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST IN LINE WITH LOW-LEVEL FORCING. HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY DUE TO LACK OF
CAPE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE 850
MB BOUNDARY.  MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THE NAM PROG OF 1.5
INCH PLUS PWS LOOKING REASONABLE.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM MOVE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE 850 MB
THERMAL-MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WAVE. DECENT CAPE...MODERATE-HIGH SHEAR
AND HEFTY PWS ARE PROGGED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THUS BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE A POTENTIAL THREAT...THOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

SUNDAY...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE TWO. QUICK LOOK AT
THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IT HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THUS
PRECIP MAY LINGER SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLING
INTO THE AREA WILL DELIVER MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. THERE IS A HINT OF RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE WAA-DRIVEN
STORMS LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT IS DAY 7.  WOLF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

DIURNAL CELLULAR VFR CU OF SCTRD TO BKN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON TO
DECAY THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACRS MN INTO WI WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 8-14KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS ACRS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GO LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO FORM IN THE VCNTY OF A FEW TAF SITES AND WILL
KEEP THE CONTINUITY OF ADVERTISING FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP AT MLI AND
CID. BUT IT COULD FORM AT BRL AS WELL. SOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW AT CID OF 5-8 KTS BY LATE THU MORNING...OTHERWISE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME TO CONTINUE OUT OF TONIGHT AND INTO
THU MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CPC WEEK 2 OUTLOOK INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THE END OF JULY INTO EARLY
AUGUST. ODDS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THAT SAME
TIME FRAME.  WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...WOLF







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231121
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM NEAR SOUTH BEND THROUGH ST LOUIS
INTO SE KS AT 2 AM. AREA RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND OHIO. THE POST-FRONTAL TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN RATHER SLOW TO TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN
IL...WHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR BEHIND IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER SE MANITOBA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SHARP CHANGE FROM TUESDAY/S HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. ALOFT...00Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS
REACHING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND
THERMAL GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST PERIMETER OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP
RIDGE RUNNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL WEST OF THE AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM AND ALLOW THE CANADIAN HIGH TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. TODAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL PULL YESTERDAY/S AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST MN AND
NORTHERN WI SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
DEWPOINTS LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY AFTERNOON. BASED
ON THIS TRAJECTORY...MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN WI BY
MORNING. RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RATHER COOL NIGHT FOR LATE JULY WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND HAVE ADDED MENTION FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL...CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER MORE LIKE A TRANSITION SEASON RATHER THAN MID
SUMMER IS SETTING UP FOR OUR AREA IN THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IS THE FIRST
CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE TAPERED POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST
AND LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST IN LINE WITH LOW-LEVEL FORCING. HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY DUE TO LACK OF
CAPE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE 850
MB BOUNDARY.  MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THE NAM PROG OF 1.5
INCH PLUS PWS LOOKING REASONABLE.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM MOVE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE 850 MB
THERMAL-MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WAVE. DECENT CAPE...MODERATE-HIGH SHEAR
AND HEFTY PWS ARE PROGGED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THUS BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE A POTENTIAL THREAT...THOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

SUNDAY...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE TWO. QUICK LOOK AT
THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IT HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THUS
PRECIP MAY LINGER SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLING
INTO THE AREA WILL DELIVER MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. THERE IS A HINT OF RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE WAA-DRIVEN
STORMS LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT IS DAY 7.  WOLF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH
IS INCLUDED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CID AND MLI...WHERE THE FOG
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CPC WEEK 2 OUTLOOK INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THE END OF JULY INTO EARLY
AUGUST. ODDS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THAT SAME
TIME FRAME.  WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...WOLF








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231121
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM NEAR SOUTH BEND THROUGH ST LOUIS
INTO SE KS AT 2 AM. AREA RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND OHIO. THE POST-FRONTAL TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN RATHER SLOW TO TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN
IL...WHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR BEHIND IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER SE MANITOBA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SHARP CHANGE FROM TUESDAY/S HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. ALOFT...00Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS
REACHING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND
THERMAL GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST PERIMETER OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP
RIDGE RUNNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL WEST OF THE AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM AND ALLOW THE CANADIAN HIGH TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. TODAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL PULL YESTERDAY/S AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST MN AND
NORTHERN WI SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
DEWPOINTS LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY AFTERNOON. BASED
ON THIS TRAJECTORY...MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN WI BY
MORNING. RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RATHER COOL NIGHT FOR LATE JULY WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND HAVE ADDED MENTION FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL...CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER MORE LIKE A TRANSITION SEASON RATHER THAN MID
SUMMER IS SETTING UP FOR OUR AREA IN THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IS THE FIRST
CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE TAPERED POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST
AND LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST IN LINE WITH LOW-LEVEL FORCING. HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY DUE TO LACK OF
CAPE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE 850
MB BOUNDARY.  MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THE NAM PROG OF 1.5
INCH PLUS PWS LOOKING REASONABLE.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM MOVE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE 850 MB
THERMAL-MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WAVE. DECENT CAPE...MODERATE-HIGH SHEAR
AND HEFTY PWS ARE PROGGED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THUS BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE A POTENTIAL THREAT...THOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

SUNDAY...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE TWO. QUICK LOOK AT
THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IT HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THUS
PRECIP MAY LINGER SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLING
INTO THE AREA WILL DELIVER MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. THERE IS A HINT OF RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE WAA-DRIVEN
STORMS LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT IS DAY 7.  WOLF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH
IS INCLUDED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CID AND MLI...WHERE THE FOG
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CPC WEEK 2 OUTLOOK INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THE END OF JULY INTO EARLY
AUGUST. ODDS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THAT SAME
TIME FRAME.  WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...WOLF







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230813
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHED FROM NEAR SOUTH BEND THROUGH ST LOUIS
INTO SE KS AT 2 AM. AREA RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND OHIO. THE POST-FRONTAL TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN RATHER SLOW TO TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN
IL...WHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR BEHIND IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER SE MANITOBA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SHARP CHANGE FROM TUESDAY/S HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. ALOFT...00Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS
REACHING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND
THERMAL GRADIENT ON THE NORTHEAST PERIMETER OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP
RIDGE RUNNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL WEST OF THE AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM AND ALLOW THE CANADIAN HIGH TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. TODAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL PULL YESTERDAY/S AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST MN AND
NORTHERN WI SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
DEWPOINTS LOWERING TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY AFTERNOON. BASED
ON THIS TRAJECTORY...MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 80 CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN WI BY
MORNING. RESULTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RATHER COOL NIGHT FOR LATE JULY WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND HAVE ADDED MENTION FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL...CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER MORE LIKE A TRANSITION SEASON RATHER THAN MID
SUMMER IS SETTING UP FOR OUR AREA IN THE LONG TERM.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IS THE FIRST
CHANCE. AT THIS POINT HAVE TAPERED POPS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST
AND LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST IN LINE WITH LOW-LEVEL FORCING. HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY DUE TO LACK OF
CAPE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE 850
MB BOUNDARY.  MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH THE NAM PROG OF 1.5
INCH PLUS PWS LOOKING REASONABLE.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND GEM MOVE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL
SUPPORT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE 850 MB
THERMAL-MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WAVE. DECENT CAPE...MODERATE-HIGH SHEAR
AND HEFTY PWS ARE PROGGED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THUS BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE A POTENTIAL THREAT...THOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

SUNDAY...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE TWO. QUICK LOOK AT
THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS IT HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THUS
PRECIP MAY LINGER SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SETTLING
INTO THE AREA WILL DELIVER MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. THERE IS A HINT OF RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE WAA-DRIVEN
STORMS LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT IS DAY 7.  WOLF

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CPC WEEK 2 OUTLOOK INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THE END OF JULY INTO EARLY
AUGUST. ODDS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THAT SAME
TIME FRAME.  WOLF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COOL FRONT HAS BROUGHT FAIR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS
WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...WOLF
CLIMATE...WOLF
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING INCOMING COOL FRONT PUSHING ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN WI...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR WATERLOO...CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA AND BACK ACRS NORTHWESTERN KS. BEST SFC PRESSURE
FALLS STARTING TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD NE
IL/LK MI...AND NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. POOLING SFC DPTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE PUMPING VALUES UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA. STRATOCU AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS KEEPING AMBIENT
TEMPS DOWN SOME...BUT STILL WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW 90S. DESPITE THE AREAS OF CLOUDS...STILL SOME PATCHY
MOSTLY SUNNY LOCATIONS AND HIGH DPTS HELPING HEAT INDICES RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S IN SEVERAL SPOTS. WILL LET THE HEAT
ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 7 PM CDT. SFC BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 3000 TO
OVER 5000 J/KG LOCALLY...BUT ALSO NOTED WAS H7 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO
+14C AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAPPING ACRS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING THE MAIN VORT MAX ROLLING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF MN ATTM...BUT A SECONDARY LOBE NOTED ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TONIGHT...BESIDES THE CURRENTLY FESTERING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST OF THE MS RVR...OF COURSE THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF
THE FRONT AND VORTS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN LOCALLY MARGINAL TO RATHER WEAK...WITH BETTER VALUES CLOSE
TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
ASSESSING MCS FORCING PARAMETERS...TWO MORE FAVORED AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS LOOK TO BE ACRS SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY TAILING WESTWARD
INTO THE DVN CWA/FREEPORT IL TO GENESEO IL AND EASTWARD/. THE OTHER
MAY OCCUR TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT LOBE OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
OF THIS ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DVN CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
EVENING. IF THIS CONVECTION WHERE TO BECOME SFC ROOTED...THE HIGH
CAPES IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY FUEL STRONG TO SVR STORMS DESPITE THE
MARGINAL SHEAR IN PLACE WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DOWN-
BURST WINDS. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED OR STRUGGLES BECAUSE
THE CAP HOLDS...LITTLE SVR THREAT IN THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING THIS EVENING BECAUSE OF THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT DOUBTS ARE SETTLING IN AND WONDER IF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL HAVE MUCH MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 7-8 PM CDT. POST FRONTAL VEERING IN LLVL FLOW TO COOL/DRY
ADVECT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL GO WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
60S WITH THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY...IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND LLVL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER AND LOWER HUMIDITY DAY ON WED. HIGHS
MAY BE HELD IN THE MID 70S IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT STILL
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF I80. ALL BELOW NORMAL. SOME POST-
FRONTAL CELLULAR CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT COVERAGE NOT TO RUIN MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN IOWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
GROW UPSCALE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS IOWA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DEPARTING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA WHILE OTHER SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS WHILE OTHERS DEVELOP CONVECTION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.    ..08..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COOL FRONT HAS BROUGHT FAIR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS
WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 230426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING INCOMING COOL FRONT PUSHING ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN WI...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR WATERLOO...CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA AND BACK ACRS NORTHWESTERN KS. BEST SFC PRESSURE
FALLS STARTING TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD NE
IL/LK MI...AND NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. POOLING SFC DPTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE PUMPING VALUES UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA. STRATOCU AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS KEEPING AMBIENT
TEMPS DOWN SOME...BUT STILL WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW 90S. DESPITE THE AREAS OF CLOUDS...STILL SOME PATCHY
MOSTLY SUNNY LOCATIONS AND HIGH DPTS HELPING HEAT INDICES RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S IN SEVERAL SPOTS. WILL LET THE HEAT
ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 7 PM CDT. SFC BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 3000 TO
OVER 5000 J/KG LOCALLY...BUT ALSO NOTED WAS H7 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO
+14C AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAPPING ACRS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING THE MAIN VORT MAX ROLLING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF MN ATTM...BUT A SECONDARY LOBE NOTED ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TONIGHT...BESIDES THE CURRENTLY FESTERING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST OF THE MS RVR...OF COURSE THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF
THE FRONT AND VORTS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN LOCALLY MARGINAL TO RATHER WEAK...WITH BETTER VALUES CLOSE
TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
ASSESSING MCS FORCING PARAMETERS...TWO MORE FAVORED AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS LOOK TO BE ACRS SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY TAILING WESTWARD
INTO THE DVN CWA/FREEPORT IL TO GENESEO IL AND EASTWARD/. THE OTHER
MAY OCCUR TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT LOBE OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
OF THIS ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DVN CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
EVENING. IF THIS CONVECTION WHERE TO BECOME SFC ROOTED...THE HIGH
CAPES IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY FUEL STRONG TO SVR STORMS DESPITE THE
MARGINAL SHEAR IN PLACE WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DOWN-
BURST WINDS. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED OR STRUGGLES BECAUSE
THE CAP HOLDS...LITTLE SVR THREAT IN THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING THIS EVENING BECAUSE OF THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT DOUBTS ARE SETTLING IN AND WONDER IF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL HAVE MUCH MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 7-8 PM CDT. POST FRONTAL VEERING IN LLVL FLOW TO COOL/DRY
ADVECT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL GO WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
60S WITH THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY...IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND LLVL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER AND LOWER HUMIDITY DAY ON WED. HIGHS
MAY BE HELD IN THE MID 70S IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT STILL
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF I80. ALL BELOW NORMAL. SOME POST-
FRONTAL CELLULAR CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT COVERAGE NOT TO RUIN MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN IOWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
GROW UPSCALE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS IOWA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DEPARTING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA WHILE OTHER SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS WHILE OTHERS DEVELOP CONVECTION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.    ..08..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COOL FRONT HAS BROUGHT FAIR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS
WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING INCOMING COOL FRONT PUSHING ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN WI...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR WATERLOO...CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA AND BACK ACRS NORTHWESTERN KS. BEST SFC PRESSURE
FALLS STARTING TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD NE
IL/LK MI...AND NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. POOLING SFC DPTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE PUMPING VALUES UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA. STRATOCU AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS KEEPING AMBIENT
TEMPS DOWN SOME...BUT STILL WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW 90S. DESPITE THE AREAS OF CLOUDS...STILL SOME PATCHY
MOSTLY SUNNY LOCATIONS AND HIGH DPTS HELPING HEAT INDICES RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S IN SEVERAL SPOTS. WILL LET THE HEAT
ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 7 PM CDT. SFC BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 3000 TO
OVER 5000 J/KG LOCALLY...BUT ALSO NOTED WAS H7 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO
+14C AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAPPING ACRS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING THE MAIN VORT MAX ROLLING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF MN ATTM...BUT A SECONDARY LOBE NOTED ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TONIGHT...BESIDES THE CURRENTLY FESTERING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST OF THE MS RVR...OF COURSE THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF
THE FRONT AND VORTS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN LOCALLY MARGINAL TO RATHER WEAK...WITH BETTER VALUES CLOSE
TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
ASSESSING MCS FORCING PARAMETERS...TWO MORE FAVORED AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS LOOK TO BE ACRS SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY TAILING WESTWARD
INTO THE DVN CWA/FREEPORT IL TO GENESEO IL AND EASTWARD/. THE OTHER
MAY OCCUR TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT LOBE OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
OF THIS ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DVN CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
EVENING. IF THIS CONVECTION WHERE TO BECOME SFC ROOTED...THE HIGH
CAPES IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY FUEL STRONG TO SVR STORMS DESPITE THE
MARGINAL SHEAR IN PLACE WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DOWN-
BURST WINDS. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED OR STRUGGLES BECAUSE
THE CAP HOLDS...LITTLE SVR THREAT IN THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING THIS EVENING BECAUSE OF THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT DOUBTS ARE SETTLING IN AND WONDER IF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL HAVE MUCH MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 7-8 PM CDT. POST FRONTAL VEERING IN LLVL FLOW TO COOL/DRY
ADVECT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL GO WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
60S WITH THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY...IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND LLVL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER AND LOWER HUMIDITY DAY ON WED. HIGHS
MAY BE HELD IN THE MID 70S IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT STILL
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF I80. ALL BELOW NORMAL. SOME POST-
FRONTAL CELLULAR CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT COVERAGE NOT TO RUIN MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN IOWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
GROW UPSCALE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS IOWA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DEPARTING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA WHILE OTHER SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS WHILE OTHERS DEVELOP CONVECTION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.    ..08..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COOL FRONT HAS BROUGHT FAIR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS
WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING INCOMING COOL FRONT PUSHING ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN WI...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR WATERLOO...CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA AND BACK ACRS NORTHWESTERN KS. BEST SFC PRESSURE
FALLS STARTING TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD NE
IL/LK MI...AND NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. POOLING SFC DPTS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE PUMPING VALUES UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA. STRATOCU AND ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS KEEPING AMBIENT
TEMPS DOWN SOME...BUT STILL WIDESPREAD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW 90S. DESPITE THE AREAS OF CLOUDS...STILL SOME PATCHY
MOSTLY SUNNY LOCATIONS AND HIGH DPTS HELPING HEAT INDICES RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S IN SEVERAL SPOTS. WILL LET THE HEAT
ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 7 PM CDT. SFC BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 3000 TO
OVER 5000 J/KG LOCALLY...BUT ALSO NOTED WAS H7 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO
+14C AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAPPING ACRS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING THE MAIN VORT MAX ROLLING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF MN ATTM...BUT A SECONDARY LOBE NOTED ACRS
SOUTHWESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TONIGHT...BESIDES THE CURRENTLY FESTERING ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST OF THE MS RVR...OF COURSE THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE IF
THE FRONT AND VORTS ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN LOCALLY MARGINAL TO RATHER WEAK...WITH BETTER VALUES CLOSE
TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
ASSESSING MCS FORCING PARAMETERS...TWO MORE FAVORED AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS LOOK TO BE ACRS SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL WITH SOME OF THIS POSSIBLY TAILING WESTWARD
INTO THE DVN CWA/FREEPORT IL TO GENESEO IL AND EASTWARD/. THE OTHER
MAY OCCUR TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN IA VORT LOBE OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
OF THIS ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN DVN CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MID
EVENING. IF THIS CONVECTION WHERE TO BECOME SFC ROOTED...THE HIGH
CAPES IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY FUEL STRONG TO SVR STORMS DESPITE THE
MARGINAL SHEAR IN PLACE WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DOWN-
BURST WINDS. IF CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED OR STRUGGLES BECAUSE
THE CAP HOLDS...LITTLE SVR THREAT IN THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING THIS EVENING BECAUSE OF THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT DOUBTS ARE SETTLING IN AND WONDER IF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL HAVE MUCH MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
AFTER 7-8 PM CDT. POST FRONTAL VEERING IN LLVL FLOW TO COOL/DRY
ADVECT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL GO WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
60S WITH THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY...IN-BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND LLVL NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER AND LOWER HUMIDITY DAY ON WED. HIGHS
MAY BE HELD IN THE MID 70S IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...BUT STILL
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF I80. ALL BELOW NORMAL. SOME POST-
FRONTAL CELLULAR CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY
EXPECT COVERAGE NOT TO RUIN MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN IOWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
GROW UPSCALE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER
FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS IOWA AND MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DEPARTING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA WHILE OTHER SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS WHILE OTHERS DEVELOP CONVECTION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.    ..08..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COOL FRONT HAS BROUGHT FAIR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS
WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








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