Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KDVN 061359
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
859 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FOR
THIS MORNING. ZONE OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN WI CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
WI. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS VERY WELL. THE SHOWERS
WERE MOVING SOUTH INTO FAR NW IL BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH
INTO THE DVN CWA AWAY FROM THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N ARKANSAS THIS MORNING LEAD TO
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. A BAND OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SURGED SOUTH OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. ALOFT
A H5 HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO BREAKDOWN. THIS OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN AND H5 RIDGE WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THE LOW END CHANCE FOR POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A DIGGING WAVE AND FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME
TIME MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE VERY
MUCH LIKE SUMMER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE
RANGE.

OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS A THE DIGGING WAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL AID IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY WITH THE SFC HIGH
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GANDER AT THE 00Z RAOB SHOWS MIXING TO NEAR H8
TODAY. A QUICK MIX DOWN OF THIS LEVEL FOR HIGHS TODAY SUGGESTS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AREA WIDE. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS
THAT SUPERBLEND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR TEMPS OVERALL. LOADED
THE 00Z SUPERBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED UP A DEGREE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TEMPS WERE WARMER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
PRECLUDES HIGHER TEMPS.

KEPT POPS TO SCHC AND A SMALL AREA OF CHC FOR NEAR 12Z SATURDAY AS
SAGGING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. WHILE THE CAMS PRODUCE QPF...THE
LACK OF CONVERGENCE LEADS TO A SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS IOWA
SATURDAY MORNING.  NAM IS THE DRIEST SOLUTION AND THE GFS IS THE
WETTEST... BUT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE THE PRECIP AREA
TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVE.  AT ANY RATE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI AND LIFTING IT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN AND
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES INTO
IOWA AND STALLS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA.  SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS THROUGHOUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARIES TO
BE IN THE REGION.

WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN/STORMS...COULD SEE 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
RAIN IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET AND FEW IN NATURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY WITH SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS AND UNDER 15 KTS. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE HELD OFF
ON THOSE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 061359
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
859 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HAVE UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA FOR
THIS MORNING. ZONE OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN WI CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
WI. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS VERY WELL. THE SHOWERS
WERE MOVING SOUTH INTO FAR NW IL BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH
INTO THE DVN CWA AWAY FROM THE BETTER WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N ARKANSAS THIS MORNING LEAD TO
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. A BAND OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SURGED SOUTH OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. ALOFT
A H5 HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO BREAKDOWN. THIS OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN AND H5 RIDGE WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THE LOW END CHANCE FOR POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A DIGGING WAVE AND FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME
TIME MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE VERY
MUCH LIKE SUMMER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE
RANGE.

OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS A THE DIGGING WAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL AID IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY WITH THE SFC HIGH
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GANDER AT THE 00Z RAOB SHOWS MIXING TO NEAR H8
TODAY. A QUICK MIX DOWN OF THIS LEVEL FOR HIGHS TODAY SUGGESTS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AREA WIDE. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS
THAT SUPERBLEND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR TEMPS OVERALL. LOADED
THE 00Z SUPERBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED UP A DEGREE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TEMPS WERE WARMER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
PRECLUDES HIGHER TEMPS.

KEPT POPS TO SCHC AND A SMALL AREA OF CHC FOR NEAR 12Z SATURDAY AS
SAGGING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. WHILE THE CAMS PRODUCE QPF...THE
LACK OF CONVERGENCE LEADS TO A SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS IOWA
SATURDAY MORNING.  NAM IS THE DRIEST SOLUTION AND THE GFS IS THE
WETTEST... BUT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE THE PRECIP AREA
TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVE.  AT ANY RATE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI AND LIFTING IT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN AND
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES INTO
IOWA AND STALLS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA.  SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS THROUGHOUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARIES TO
BE IN THE REGION.

WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN/STORMS...COULD SEE 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
RAIN IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET AND FEW IN NATURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY WITH SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS AND UNDER 15 KTS. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE HELD OFF
ON THOSE AT THIS TIME.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 061045 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
545 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N ARKANSAS THIS MORNING LEAD TO
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. A BAND OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SURGED SOUTH OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. ALOFT
A H5 HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO BREAKDOWN. THIS OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN AND H5 RIDGE WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THE LOW END CHANCE FOR POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A DIGGING WAVE AND FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME
TIME MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE VERY
MUCH LIKE SUMMER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE
RANGE.

OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS A THE DIGGING WAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL AID IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY WITH THE SFC HIGH
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GANDER AT THE 00Z RAOB SHOWS MIXING TO NEAR H8
TODAY. A QUICK MIX DOWN OF THIS LEVEL FOR HIGHS TODAY SUGGESTS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AREA WIDE. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS
THAT SUPERBLEND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR TEMPS OVERALL. LOADED
THE 00Z SUPERBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED UP A DEGREE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TEMPS WERE WARMER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
PRECLUDES HIGHER TEMPS.

KEPT POPS TO SCHC AND A SMALL AREA OF CHC FOR NEAR 12Z SATURDAY AS
SAGGING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. WHILE THE CAMS PRODUCE QPF...THE
LACK OF CONVERGENCE LEADS TO A SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS IOWA
SATURDAY MORNING.  NAM IS THE DRIEST SOLUTION AND THE GFS IS THE
WETTEST... BUT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE THE PRECIP AREA
TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVE.  AT ANY RATE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI AND LIFTING IT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN AND
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES INTO
IOWA AND STALLS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA.  SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS THROUGHOUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARIES TO
BE IN THE REGION.

WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN/STORMS...COULD SEE 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
RAIN IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET AND FEW IN NATURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY WITH SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS AND UNDER 15 KTS. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE HELD OFF
ON THOSE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...GIBBS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 060805
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N ARKANSAS THIS MORNING LEAD TO
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US. A BAND OF
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS SURGED SOUTH OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. ALOFT
A H5 HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO START TO BREAKDOWN. THIS OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN AND H5 RIDGE WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THE LOW END CHANCE FOR POPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A DIGGING WAVE AND FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME
TIME MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER STORY IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE VERY
MUCH LIKE SUMMER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE VERY COMFORTABLE
RANGE.

OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS A THE DIGGING WAVE MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL AID IN EJECTING THE CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY WITH THE SFC HIGH
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GANDER AT THE 00Z RAOB SHOWS MIXING TO NEAR H8
TODAY. A QUICK MIX DOWN OF THIS LEVEL FOR HIGHS TODAY SUGGESTS
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AREA WIDE. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE IT APPEARS
THAT SUPERBLEND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST FOR TEMPS OVERALL. LOADED
THE 00Z SUPERBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED UP A DEGREE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF TEMPS WERE WARMER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
PRECLUDES HIGHER TEMPS.

KEPT POPS TO SCHC AND A SMALL AREA OF CHC FOR NEAR 12Z SATURDAY AS
SAGGING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. WHILE THE CAMS PRODUCE QPF...THE
LACK OF CONVERGENCE LEADS TO A SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS IOWA
SATURDAY MORNING.  NAM IS THE DRIEST SOLUTION AND THE GFS IS THE
WETTEST... BUT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE THE PRECIP AREA
TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVE.  AT ANY RATE...EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AGAIN MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN STALLING THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI AND LIFTING IT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN AND
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES INTO
IOWA AND STALLS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA.  SPC OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING...THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
WILL KEEP LOW POPS THROUGHOUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARIES TO
BE IN THE REGION.

WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN/STORMS...COULD SEE 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
RAIN IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY CLEAR CALM AND VFR NIGHT TO THE
REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VFR DAY OF CLEAR/HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 060441
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.

RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.

THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY CLEAR CALM AND VFR NIGHT TO THE
REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VFR DAY OF CLEAR/HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 060441
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.

RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.

THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY CLEAR CALM AND VFR NIGHT TO THE
REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VFR DAY OF CLEAR/HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 052317
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
617 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.

RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.

THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY CLEAR CALM AND VFR NIGHT TO THE
REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VFR DAY OF CLEAR/HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 052317
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
617 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.

RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.

THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY CLEAR CALM AND VFR NIGHT TO THE
REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VFR DAY OF CLEAR/HIGH CLOUDS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST FRIDAY AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 052041
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.

RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.

THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 052041
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
341 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA PROVIDING FULL SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT SPRING TEMPERATURES. 2 PM READINGS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
CAUSED A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN MN
INTO CENTRAL IA AND NORTH CENTRAL MO. THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH STAYED
JUST WEST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THERE HAS
EVEN BEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR WESTERN
WI AND THE EAST METRO OF THE TWIN CITIES. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN THE STRONGER ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN ND AND MANITOBA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THERE WAS 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER
40S. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL EXIST. BELIEVE THE HRRR IS OVERDOING THE SHOWERS IN THE DVN CWA
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES. WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY...WARM DAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND...850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +15 TO 16C AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
MAY MANAGE TO SEE 85 DEGREES CONSIDERING WE SHOULD HAVE SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN AND
POINTS TO THE E/NE. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
BE WEAK AND PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS
THAN A TENTH FOR MOST AREAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN CWA BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

THUNDERSTORM DETAILS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN
THE DVN CWA ARE IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...TO
THE WEST OF GALESBURG...WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 45 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS 850MB WV TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES TO THE
ESE OF A COHERENT 850MB LOW MOVING INTO E NEBRASKA.

RAIN POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS NOW SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE EAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH...REMAINING BELOW 1 STANDARD DEVIATION...THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW
MOVER AND SHOWS A SOLID MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...VIA 850 WV TRANSPORT VECTORS.

THE WPC 5-7 DAY QPF SUPPORTS CPC/S OUTLOOK...PAINTING A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES ALONG WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP AND THE 850MB LOW
TRACKS...FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST WITH MUCH DETAIL.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 051727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1227 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AT 2 AM CDT AND SOME UPPER 30S NORTH. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES AND
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
A QUIET REGIME AND LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY...A SPLENDID SPRING DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS POSSIBLE
MID DAY.

TONIGHT...FAIR WITH MANY AREA LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS FRIDAY EVENING
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL
FORCING BECOMES WEAKER BUT IT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STALLS OUT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
ON...

THE MODELS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE FIRST SLOW MOVING PIECE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
AND THE SECOND PIECE APPROACHES. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE NO SUCH
BREAK AND HAVE THE SECOND PART OF THE STORM ARRIVING JUST AS THE FIRST
PART EXITS. AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 051727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1227 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AT 2 AM CDT AND SOME UPPER 30S NORTH. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES AND
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
A QUIET REGIME AND LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY...A SPLENDID SPRING DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS POSSIBLE
MID DAY.

TONIGHT...FAIR WITH MANY AREA LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS FRIDAY EVENING
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL
FORCING BECOMES WEAKER BUT IT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STALLS OUT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
ON...

THE MODELS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE FIRST SLOW MOVING PIECE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
AND THE SECOND PIECE APPROACHES. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE NO SUCH
BREAK AND HAVE THE SECOND PART OF THE STORM ARRIVING JUST AS THE FIRST
PART EXITS. AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 051125
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AT 2 AM CDT AND SOME UPPER 30S NORTH. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES AND
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
A QUIET REGIME AND LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY...A SPLENDID SPRING DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS POSSIBLE
MID DAY.

TONIGHT...FAIR WITH MANY AREA LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS FRIDAY EVENING
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL
FORCING BECOMES WEAKER BUT IT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STALLS OUT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
ON...

THE MODELS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE FIRST SLOW MOVING PIECE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
AND THE SECOND PIECE APPROACHES. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE NO SUCH
BREAK AND HAVE THE SECOND PART OF THE STORM ARRIVING JUST AS THE FIRST
PART EXITS. AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 051125
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AT 2 AM CDT AND SOME UPPER 30S NORTH. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES AND
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
A QUIET REGIME AND LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY...A SPLENDID SPRING DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS POSSIBLE
MID DAY.

TONIGHT...FAIR WITH MANY AREA LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS FRIDAY EVENING
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL
FORCING BECOMES WEAKER BUT IT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STALLS OUT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
ON...

THE MODELS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE FIRST SLOW MOVING PIECE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
AND THE SECOND PIECE APPROACHES. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE NO SUCH
BREAK AND HAVE THE SECOND PART OF THE STORM ARRIVING JUST AS THE FIRST
PART EXITS. AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 050847
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AT 2 AM CDT AND SOME UPPER 30S NORTH. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES AND
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
A QUIET REGIME AND LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY...A SPLENDID SPRING DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS POSSIBLE
MID DAY.

TONIGHT...FAIR WITH MANY AREA LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS FRIDAY EVENING
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL
FORCING BECOMES WEAKER BUT IT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STALLS OUT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
ON...

THE MODELS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE FIRST SLOW MOVING PIECE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
AND THE SECOND PIECE APPROACHES. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE NO SUCH
BREAK AND HAVE THE SECOND PART OF THE STORM ARRIVING JUST AS THE FIRST
PART EXITS. AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOL VFR NIGHT OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
CLEAR DAY THURSDAY. THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 050847
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S
AT 2 AM CDT AND SOME UPPER 30S NORTH. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES AND
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
A QUIET REGIME AND LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY...A SPLENDID SPRING DAY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS POSSIBLE
MID DAY.

TONIGHT...FAIR WITH MANY AREA LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TURNING MORE ACTIVE STARTING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

THE BETTER FORCING IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS FRIDAY EVENING
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE OVERALL
FORCING BECOMES WEAKER BUT IT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF. THE ECMWF/GEM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STALLS OUT FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS BACK INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY
ON...

THE MODELS EJECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED FROM MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE FIRST SLOW MOVING PIECE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A
LULL IN ACTIVITY AS THE FIRST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
AND THE SECOND PIECE APPROACHES. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE NO SUCH
BREAK AND HAVE THE SECOND PART OF THE STORM ARRIVING JUST AS THE FIRST
PART EXITS. AS A RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOL VFR NIGHT OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
CLEAR DAY THURSDAY. THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 050408
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1108 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH RVR VALLEY ON LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH STILL TIGHT
LLVL NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND IT ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE ENHANCED CU/STRATOCU
FIELDS EAST OF THE MS RVR...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S APPEARING THAT
THERE WON/T BE ANY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP WERE
INDICATING AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IND...WHILE A LARGE WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK UPPER RIDGE WAS REIGNING ACRS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TONIGHT...THE MORE CELLULAR CU ACRS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA WILL
DECAY DIURNALLY AROUND SUNSET...WHILE SOME OF THE STRATOCU IN THE
EAST LINGERS A BIT LONGER. BUT AS THE UPPER LOW ACRS IND ROLLS
FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SOME OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGING
NUDGES IT/S WAY ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY FROM THE WEST...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. DEEP CYCLONIC/NEAR MERIDIONAL
FETCH TO THE LEE OF THE OMEGA RIDGE HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL ADVECT CANADIAN SOURCE AIRMASS THRU TONIGHT. THE EXTENT OF THE
DRY COOL AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/OPTIMUM
TRANSLATION TO THE SFC OF H85 MB RIDGE COLD RULE. BUT THERE ARE
SIGNS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A LINGERING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SFC WINDS AT 4-5 KTS EVEN TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WOULD LIMIT MORE
OF A FROST DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP TEMPS MORE IN THE 37-39 DEGREE
RANGE. OTHER NOCTURNAL PROCESSES MAY GO INTO A HEAVY DEW FORMATION
AND RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AS WELL...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A
TRUE WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT IN CASE THAT A BIT MORE OF A SFC WIND
DECOUPLE OCCURS THAN EXPECTED...WILL ADD PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS
FOR A FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I80. BUT THE ENTIRE CWA MAY HAVE SIMILAR LOWS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH SOME COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS DIPPING TOWARD THE MID
30S. THUS SOME PATCHY FROST MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVEN SOUTH OF I80.

THURSDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF PLAINS/MO RVR VALLEY SFC RIDGE COMPLEX
WILL LOOK TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW MS RVR VALLEY...
KEEP SOME LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW GRADIENT GOING ACRS THE CWA WITH A MID-
LATE MORNING WIND MIX OUT INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH. AIRMASS ALOFT WILL
ALREADY BE IN MODERATION MODE...AND A DAY OF JUST MARGINAL MIXING UP
CLOSE TO H9 MB WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THU
HIGHS EVEN AFTER THE COOL START TO THE DAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY CHANNELED VORT MAX DOWN
THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
A FEW MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT ISOLATED TO SCTRD INSTABILITY SHOWERS
BY LATE MORNING ACRS THESE AREAS...BUT IF THEY DO FORM AND PERSIST
THEY SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FCST
AREA THROUGH 00Z. CURRENT CU RULE PROGS SUGGEST CELLULAR CU
DEVELOPING TO SCTRD OR NEARING BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE FAR EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MIDDAY..BUT THEN DECREASE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DAY TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
CUT-OFF LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING
AND SHEARING OUT. LOCALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS...SO
THE WARMEST TEMPS...UPPER 80S...WILL STAY OFF TO THE W/NW THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.

FORECAST BUFKIT NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
UP TO 850-800MB WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. FULL
SOLAR INSOLATION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
COMPRESSIONAL MIX DOWN OF THE MILD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF MID 80S FOR SELECT
SITES. WINDS ARE NOT EXCEPTED TO BE VERY STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 25 MPH.

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE WEAK AND
PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF IS A TENTH
OF LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAY
EXCEED 40 KTS. WITHOUT GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...THERE IS AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS NEAR 70 F.

AS OF TODAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS HIGHLIGHTED...IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DOWN INTO
EASTERN TEXAS. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COOL VFR NIGHT OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
CLEAR DAY THURSDAY. THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR VERY
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 042332
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH RVR VALLEY ON LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH STILL TIGHT
LLVL NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND IT ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE ENHANCED CU/STRATOCU
FIELDS EAST OF THE MS RVR...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S APPEARING THAT
THERE WON/T BE ANY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP WERE
INDICATING AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IND...WHILE A LARGE WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK UPPER RIDGE WAS REIGNING ACRS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TONIGHT...THE MORE CELLULAR CU ACRS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA WILL
DECAY DIURNALLY AROUND SUNSET...WHILE SOME OF THE STRATOCU IN THE
EAST LINGERS A BIT LONGER. BUT AS THE UPPER LOW ACRS IND ROLLS
FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SOME OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGING
NUDGES IT/S WAY ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY FROM THE WEST...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. DEEP CYCLONIC/NEAR MERIDIONAL
FETCH TO THE LEE OF THE OMEGA RIDGE HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL ADVECT CANADIAN SOURCE AIRMASS THRU TONIGHT. THE EXTENT OF THE
DRY COOL AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/OPTIMUM
TRANSLATION TO THE SFC OF H85 MB RIDGE COLD RULE. BUT THERE ARE
SIGNS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A LINGERING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SFC WINDS AT 4-5 KTS EVEN TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WOULD LIMIT MORE
OF A FROST DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP TEMPS MORE IN THE 37-39 DEGREE
RANGE. OTHER NOCTURNAL PROCESSES MAY GO INTO A HEAVY DEW FORMATION
AND RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AS WELL...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A
TRUE WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT IN CASE THAT A BIT MORE OF A SFC WIND
DECOUPLE OCCURS THAN EXPECTED...WILL ADD PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS
FOR A FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I80. BUT THE ENTIRE CWA MAY HAVE SIMILAR LOWS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH SOME COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS DIPPING TOWARD THE MID
30S. THUS SOME PATCHY FROST MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVEN SOUTH OF I80.

THURSDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF PLAINS/MO RVR VALLEY SFC RIDGE COMPLEX
WILL LOOK TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW MS RVR VALLEY...
KEEP SOME LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW GRADIENT GOING ACRS THE CWA WITH A MID-
LATE MORNING WIND MIX OUT INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH. AIRMASS ALOFT WILL
ALREADY BE IN MODERATION MODE...AND A DAY OF JUST MARGINAL MIXING UP
CLOSE TO H9 MB WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THU
HIGHS EVEN AFTER THE COOL START TO THE DAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY CHANNELED VORT MAX DOWN
THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
A FEW MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT ISOLATED TO SCTRD INSTABILITY SHOWERS
BY LATE MORNING ACRS THESE AREAS...BUT IF THEY DO FORM AND PERSIST
THEY SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FCST
AREA THROUGH 00Z. CURRENT CU RULE PROGS SUGGEST CELLULAR CU
DEVELOPING TO SCTRD OR NEARING BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE FAR EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MIDDAY..BUT THEN DECREASE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DAY TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
CUT-OFF LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING
AND SHEARING OUT. LOCALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS...SO
THE WARMEST TEMPS...UPPER 80S...WILL STAY OFF TO THE W/NW THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.

FORECAST BUFKIT NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
UP TO 850-800MB WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. FULL
SOLAR INSOLATION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
COMPRESSIONAL MIX DOWN OF THE MILD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF MID 80S FOR SELECT
SITES. WINDS ARE NOT EXCEPTED TO BE VERY STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 25 MPH.

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE WEAK AND
PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF IS A TENTH
OF LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAY
EXCEED 40 KTS. WITHOUT GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...THERE IS AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS NEAR 70 F.

AS OF TODAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS HIGHLIGHTED...IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DOWN INTO
EASTERN TEXAS. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TAF CYCLE WITH EVENING CU
FIELD DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE SUNSET. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 4-10 KTS OVERNIGHT...LIMITING ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GROSS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 042031
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH RVR VALLEY ON LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH STILL TIGHT
LLVL NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND IT ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE ENHANCED CU/STRATOCU
FIELDS EAST OF THE MS RVR...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S APPEARING THAT
THERE WON/T BE ANY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP WERE
INDICATING AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IND...WHILE A LARGE WELL
DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK UPPER RIDGE WAS REIGNING ACRS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TONIGHT...THE MORE CELLULAR CU ACRS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA WILL
DECAY DIURNALLY AROUND SUNSET...WHILE SOME OF THE STRATOCU IN THE
EAST LINGERS A BIT LONGER. BUT AS THE UPPER LOW ACRS IND ROLLS
FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SOME OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGING
NUDGES IT/S WAY ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY FROM THE WEST...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. DEEP CYCLONIC/NEAR MERIDIONAL
FETCH TO THE LEE OF THE OMEGA RIDGE HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL ADVECT CANADIAN SOURCE AIRMASS THRU TONIGHT. THE EXTENT OF THE
DRY COOL AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES/OPTIMUM
TRANSLATION TO THE SFC OF H85 MB RIDGE COLD RULE. BUT THERE ARE
SIGNS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A LINGERING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SFC WINDS AT 4-5 KTS EVEN TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WOULD LIMIT MORE
OF A FROST DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP TEMPS MORE IN THE 37-39 DEGREE
RANGE. OTHER NOCTURNAL PROCESSES MAY GO INTO A HEAVY DEW FORMATION
AND RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN AS WELL...AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A
TRUE WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT IN CASE THAT A BIT MORE OF A SFC WIND
DECOUPLE OCCURS THAN EXPECTED...WILL ADD PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS
FOR A FEW HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I80. BUT THE ENTIRE CWA MAY HAVE SIMILAR LOWS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WITH SOME COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS DIPPING TOWARD THE MID
30S. THUS SOME PATCHY FROST MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EVEN SOUTH OF I80.

THURSDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF PLAINS/MO RVR VALLEY SFC RIDGE COMPLEX
WILL LOOK TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOW MS RVR VALLEY...
KEEP SOME LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW GRADIENT GOING ACRS THE CWA WITH A MID-
LATE MORNING WIND MIX OUT INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH. AIRMASS ALOFT WILL
ALREADY BE IN MODERATION MODE...AND A DAY OF JUST MARGINAL MIXING UP
CLOSE TO H9 MB WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THU
HIGHS EVEN AFTER THE COOL START TO THE DAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY CHANNELED VORT MAX DOWN
THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO NORTHEASTERN IA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
A FEW MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT ISOLATED TO SCTRD INSTABILITY SHOWERS
BY LATE MORNING ACRS THESE AREAS...BUT IF THEY DO FORM AND PERSIST
THEY SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FCST
AREA THROUGH 00Z. CURRENT CU RULE PROGS SUGGEST CELLULAR CU
DEVELOPING TO SCTRD OR NEARING BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE FAR EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MIDDAY..BUT THEN DECREASE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DAY TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
CUT-OFF LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING
AND SHEARING OUT. LOCALLY THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS...SO
THE WARMEST TEMPS...UPPER 80S...WILL STAY OFF TO THE W/NW THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.

FORECAST BUFKIT NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
UP TO 850-800MB WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. FULL
SOLAR INSOLATION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND
COMPRESSIONAL MIX DOWN OF THE MILD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY OF MID 80S FOR SELECT
SITES. WINDS ARE NOT EXCEPTED TO BE VERY STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 25 MPH.

SATURDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AS A RESULT...LIFT OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL BE WEAK AND
PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. QPF IS A TENTH
OF LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE SOUTH OF
I-80 WHERE MUCAPES MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAY
EXCEED 40 KTS. WITHOUT GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...THERE IS AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURN AS A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS IT IS FORCED BY A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN TRANSLATES INTO NO BIG
WARM UPS WITH AVG HIGH TEMPS NEAR 70 F.

AS OF TODAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS HIGHLIGHTED...IN THE CPC 3-7 DAY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DOWN INTO
EASTERN TEXAS. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORE CELLULAR CU...SOME AT BKN COVERAGE BUT AT VFR LEVELS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THESE CU FIELDS WHICH MAY GET INTO THE EASTERN VCNTY OF
DBQ/MLI/BRL. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS BY MID EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR. EXPECT ENOUGH
OF A NORTH BREEZE OF AT LEAST 4-6 KTS INTO EARLY THU MORNING TO
LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH ONGOING DIURNAL DRYING
TODAY LOWERING SFC DPTS. VFR CONDITIONS ON THU WITH NORTH-
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 8-13 KTS.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 041754
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 2 AM CDT...SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH THE LAST OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ISOLABAIC MAXTO ARRIVE MID MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT
3 DAYS BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TREND STARTING
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MAIN ISSUE TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF MID DAY WIND GUSTS. THE BL DEWPOINTS
AND DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT A KEY PLAYER ON RISK OF FROST FORMATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH SUNNY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY MID TO LATE DAY WITH FEW-SCT AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF BKN COVERAGE
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MID DAY IN BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THERE. THIS IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AND MAY BE ABLE TO BE
REMOVED IF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE STAYS TO OUR EAST AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
IS USUALLY THE CASE. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SUPERDIABATIC MIXING TO ABOVE
750 MB SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOR
A BREEZY AND COOL DAY. HIGHS WITH DEEP MIXING AND SUNSHINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A 58 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE SUGGESTED FROM NE TO
SW. THIS WOULD BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS TO AT OR BELOW 5 MPH
BY SUNRISE. IF BL DECOUPLING DOES OCCUR AS IS SUGGESTED AFTER 3 TO
4 AM THEN LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FORECAST
MINS WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LIKELY. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR
A FROST ADVISORY IS JUST BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WILL PASS AS MAIN ISSUE
FOR DAY SHIFT. WILL NOT PUT PATCHY FROST IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME NORTH
OF I-80 AND PASS FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTS AREA
MINS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 35 DEGREES IN FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-80 TO AROUND 42 TO 43 DEGREES AROUND KEOKUK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DRY TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK THEN THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT
THEN TURN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AND MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THUS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY ON...

STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN
TURNS ACTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF OVERALL FEATURES. WHAT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE UPON IS THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY COME OUT IN PIECES WHICH WILL HELP PROLONG THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHER
HAVE MORE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE
FRONT OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER THAN OTHERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE FIRST PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY DELAY
THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DRY AIR. AS SUCH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PLAINS.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORE CELLULAR CU...SOME AT BKN COVERAGE BUT AT VFR LEVELS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THESE CU FIELDS WHICH MAY GET INTO THE EASTERN VCNTY OF
DBQ/MLI/BRL. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS BY MID EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR. EXPECT ENOUGH
OF A NORTH BREEZE OF AT LEAST 4-6 KTS INTO EARLY THU MORNING TO
LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH ONGOING DIURNAL DRYING
TODAY LOWERING SFC DPTS. VFR CONDITIONS ON THU WITH NORTH-
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 8-13 KTS.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 041754
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 2 AM CDT...SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH THE LAST OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ISOLABAIC MAXTO ARRIVE MID MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT
3 DAYS BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TREND STARTING
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MAIN ISSUE TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF MID DAY WIND GUSTS. THE BL DEWPOINTS
AND DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT A KEY PLAYER ON RISK OF FROST FORMATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH SUNNY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY MID TO LATE DAY WITH FEW-SCT AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF BKN COVERAGE
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MID DAY IN BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THERE. THIS IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AND MAY BE ABLE TO BE
REMOVED IF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE STAYS TO OUR EAST AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
IS USUALLY THE CASE. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SUPERDIABATIC MIXING TO ABOVE
750 MB SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOR
A BREEZY AND COOL DAY. HIGHS WITH DEEP MIXING AND SUNSHINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A 58 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE SUGGESTED FROM NE TO
SW. THIS WOULD BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS TO AT OR BELOW 5 MPH
BY SUNRISE. IF BL DECOUPLING DOES OCCUR AS IS SUGGESTED AFTER 3 TO
4 AM THEN LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FORECAST
MINS WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LIKELY. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR
A FROST ADVISORY IS JUST BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WILL PASS AS MAIN ISSUE
FOR DAY SHIFT. WILL NOT PUT PATCHY FROST IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME NORTH
OF I-80 AND PASS FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTS AREA
MINS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 35 DEGREES IN FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-80 TO AROUND 42 TO 43 DEGREES AROUND KEOKUK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DRY TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK THEN THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT
THEN TURN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AND MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THUS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY ON...

STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN
TURNS ACTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF OVERALL FEATURES. WHAT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE UPON IS THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY COME OUT IN PIECES WHICH WILL HELP PROLONG THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHER
HAVE MORE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE
FRONT OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER THAN OTHERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE FIRST PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY DELAY
THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DRY AIR. AS SUCH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PLAINS.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORE CELLULAR CU...SOME AT BKN COVERAGE BUT AT VFR LEVELS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MS RVR THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN THESE CU FIELDS WHICH MAY GET INTO THE EASTERN VCNTY OF
DBQ/MLI/BRL. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS BY MID EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR. EXPECT ENOUGH
OF A NORTH BREEZE OF AT LEAST 4-6 KTS INTO EARLY THU MORNING TO
LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH ONGOING DIURNAL DRYING
TODAY LOWERING SFC DPTS. VFR CONDITIONS ON THU WITH NORTH-
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 8-13 KTS.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 041119
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 2 AM CDT...SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH THE LAST OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ISOLABAIC MAXTO ARRIVE MID MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT
3 DAYS BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TREND STARTING
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MAIN ISSUE TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF MID DAY WIND GUSTS. THE BL DEWPOINTS
AND DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT A KEY PLAYER ON RISK OF FROST FORMATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH SUNNY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY MID TO LATE DAY WITH FEW-SCT AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF BKN COVERAGE
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MID DAY IN BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THERE. THIS IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AND MAY BE ABLE TO BE
REMOVED IF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE STAYS TO OUR EAST AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
IS USUALLY THE CASE. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SUPERDIABATIC MIXING TO ABOVE
750 MB SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOR
A BREEZY AND COOL DAY. HIGHS WITH DEEP MIXING AND SUNSHINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A 58 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE SUGGESTED FROM NE TO
SW. THIS WOULD BE 5 TO 120 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS TO AT OR BELOW 5 MPH
BY SUNRISE. IF BL DECOUPLING DOES OCCUR AS IS SUGGESTED AFTER 3 TO
4 AM THEN LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FORECAST
MINS WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LIKELY. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR
A FROST ADVISORY IS JUST BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WILL PASS AS MAIN ISSUE
FOR DAY SHIFT. WILL NOT PUT PATCHY FROST IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME NORTH
OF I-80 AND PASS FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTS AREA
MINS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 35 DEGREES IN FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-80 TO AROUND 42 TO 43 DEGREES AROUND KEOKUK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DRY TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK THEN THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT
THEN TURN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AND MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THUS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY ON...

STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN
TURNS ACTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF OVERALL FEATURES. WHAT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE UPON IS THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY COME OUT IN PIECES WHICH WILL HELP PROLONG THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHER
HAVE MORE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE
FRONT OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER THAN OTHERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE FIRST PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY DELAY
THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DRY AIR. AS SUCH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PLAINS.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES ALL TERMINALS AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AT 15 TO
20...POSSIBLY 25 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10
KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY OF FEW-SCT COVERAGE AND BASES AOA 4K AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 041119
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 2 AM CDT...SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH THE LAST OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ISOLABAIC MAXTO ARRIVE MID MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT
3 DAYS BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TREND STARTING
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MAIN ISSUE TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF MID DAY WIND GUSTS. THE BL DEWPOINTS
AND DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT A KEY PLAYER ON RISK OF FROST FORMATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH SUNNY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY MID TO LATE DAY WITH FEW-SCT AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF BKN COVERAGE
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MID DAY IN BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THERE. THIS IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AND MAY BE ABLE TO BE
REMOVED IF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE STAYS TO OUR EAST AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
IS USUALLY THE CASE. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SUPERDIABATIC MIXING TO ABOVE
750 MB SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOR
A BREEZY AND COOL DAY. HIGHS WITH DEEP MIXING AND SUNSHINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A 58 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE SUGGESTED FROM NE TO
SW. THIS WOULD BE 5 TO 120 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS TO AT OR BELOW 5 MPH
BY SUNRISE. IF BL DECOUPLING DOES OCCUR AS IS SUGGESTED AFTER 3 TO
4 AM THEN LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FORECAST
MINS WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LIKELY. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR
A FROST ADVISORY IS JUST BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WILL PASS AS MAIN ISSUE
FOR DAY SHIFT. WILL NOT PUT PATCHY FROST IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME NORTH
OF I-80 AND PASS FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTS AREA
MINS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 35 DEGREES IN FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-80 TO AROUND 42 TO 43 DEGREES AROUND KEOKUK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DRY TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK THEN THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT
THEN TURN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AND MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THUS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY ON...

STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN
TURNS ACTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF OVERALL FEATURES. WHAT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE UPON IS THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY COME OUT IN PIECES WHICH WILL HELP PROLONG THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHER
HAVE MORE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE
FRONT OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER THAN OTHERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE FIRST PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY DELAY
THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DRY AIR. AS SUCH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PLAINS.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR SKIES ALL TERMINALS AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY AT 15 TO
20...POSSIBLY 25 KTS BY LATE THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10
KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY OF FEW-SCT COVERAGE AND BASES AOA 4K AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 040821
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 2 AM CDT...SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH THE LAST OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
ISOLABAIC MAXTO ARRIVE MID MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY WINDS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT
3 DAYS BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TREND STARTING
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MAIN ISSUE TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTH OF MID DAY WIND GUSTS. THE BL DEWPOINTS
AND DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT A KEY PLAYER ON RISK OF FROST FORMATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH SUNNY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY MID TO LATE DAY WITH FEW-SCT AND BRIEF INTERVALS OF BKN COVERAGE
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MID DAY IN BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN THERE. THIS IS VERY QUESTIONABLE AND MAY BE ABLE TO BE
REMOVED IF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE STAYS TO OUR EAST AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
IS USUALLY THE CASE. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SUPERDIABATIC MIXING TO ABOVE
750 MB SUPPORTS GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOR
A BREEZY AND COOL DAY. HIGHS WITH DEEP MIXING AND SUNSHINE MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE WITH A 58 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE SUGGESTED FROM NE TO
SW. THIS WOULD BE 5 TO 120 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS TO AT OR BELOW 5 MPH
BY SUNRISE. IF BL DECOUPLING DOES OCCUR AS IS SUGGESTED AFTER 3 TO
4 AM THEN LOW LYING AREAS WILL SEE LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW FORECAST
MINS WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST LIKELY. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR
A FROST ADVISORY IS JUST BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WILL PASS AS MAIN ISSUE
FOR DAY SHIFT. WILL NOT PUT PATCHY FROST IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME NORTH
OF I-80 AND PASS FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTS AREA
MINS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 35 DEGREES IN FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-80 TO AROUND 42 TO 43 DEGREES AROUND KEOKUK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DRY TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK THEN THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE.

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT
THEN TURN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AND MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THUS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY ON...

STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN
TURNS ACTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF OVERALL FEATURES. WHAT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE UPON IS THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE EJECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY COME OUT IN PIECES WHICH WILL HELP PROLONG THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST.

ON SATURDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR A DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
SOME MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHER
HAVE MORE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE
FRONT OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER THAN OTHERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE FIRST PIECE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY DELAY
THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DRY AIR. AS SUCH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY...AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PLAINS.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES ALL TERMINALS BY
04/09Z AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT MLI AND
BRL TERMINALS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY OF FEW-SCT
COVERAGE AND BASES AOA 4K AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 040546
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1246 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE GRT LKS...WHILE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED BACK ACRS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN SD. WIDESPREAD
CELLULAR CU FIELD HAS POPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM
SECTOR...BUT LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE ZAPPED THE HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL BY A
FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN
THIS CU FIELD ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN IL THRU 00Z. ALOFT...12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING UPSTREAM WELL PRONOUNCED OMEGA
BLOCK RIDGE COMPLEX ACRS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A RATHER VIGOROUS VORT
MAX WAS NOTED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO AND INTO THE GRT LKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TONIGHT...THE UPSTREAM FRONT TO THE NORTH ACRS MN INTO FAR NW WI/MI
U.P. AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS...WILL WORK IT/S WAY
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WILL BRING IT
DOWN TO A CID TO DBQ LINE BY 9 PM CDT...ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY
11 PM CDT...AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 1 AM
WITH EYES ON EXITING THE AREA BY 2-3 AM CDT WED MORNING.  THIS
PROGRESSIVE BAND SHOULD NOT LINGER MUCH LONGER THAN 2-3 HRS AT ANY
ONE POINT AND MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF RAINFALL BY THE TIME IT MOVES OUT...MOST AREAS PROBABLY 0.15 OF
AN INCH OR LESS. LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING INDICATED ON SENSORS ATTM
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH AND WONDERING IF WE WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH
THUNDER AT ALL OVERNIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMUM TIME OF DAY TO
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH. BUT SEVERAL MODELS STILL ADVECT A PLUME OF
6.5 TO 7 C/KM MID LAYER LAPSE RATES DOWN ACRS THE AREA FROM 01Z TO
07Z WED...AS WELL AS MUCAPES OF 100-200+ IN THAT SAME LAYER. THUS
WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING IN MOST AREAS.
THE FAR SOUTH MAY BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH LIGHTNING/WEAKENING UPDRAFT
PERCULATIONS BY THE TIME IT GETS DOWN THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOOKING
AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME. POST-FRONTAL VEERING OF WEST
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SOME INCREASE INTO EARLY WED MORNING TO
COOL ADVECT INTO SUNRISE. BUT MIXING WINDS THEMSELVES OF 10-15 MPH
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN MOST AREAS/EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH/ IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. IF THE WINDS WERE TO DECOUPLE AT THE SFC...EXTENT OF
COOLING AIRMASS FLOWING DOWN INTO THE REGION WOULD SUPPORT MORE LOWS
IN THE 30S AGAIN BY 12Z WED.

WEDNESDAY...STEEP NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL DUMP DOWN THE UPPER TO
MID MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY...ALONG WITH BREEZY POST-
FRONTAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOCALLY. FCST HIGHS OF UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S ACRS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA WILL NEED DEEP MIXING UP ABOVE H85 MB
TO GET THOSE VALUES...AND MORE CELLULAR CU WILL ALSO ACT AS A
THERMAL ROBBER ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR. ISOLATED
POP-UP INSTABILITY SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RVR
BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES IN PRIME MIX-OUT WINDOW.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH OF A WIND TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY
BUT WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS JUST YET. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR
ANY FROST WOULD BE VALLEY OR SHELTERED SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WIND.

THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE AROUND 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO OUR FAR SOUTH ENDING THE
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE DRYING
SUNDAY OUT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BUT THE CONSENSUS MODELS
STILL HANG ONTO SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS CAN REMOVE
THESE POPS IF THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
ON SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ECMWF/GFS WANT TO KEY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP HIGH-END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING NOT QUITE THERE YET SO PLENTY OF ROOM TO RAISE POPS LATER.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES ALL TERMINALS BY
04/09Z AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT MLI AND
BRL TERMINALS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY OF FEW-SCT
COVERAGE AND BASES AOA 4K AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 040546
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1246 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE GRT LKS...WHILE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED BACK ACRS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN SD. WIDESPREAD
CELLULAR CU FIELD HAS POPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM
SECTOR...BUT LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE ZAPPED THE HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL BY A
FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN
THIS CU FIELD ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN IL THRU 00Z. ALOFT...12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING UPSTREAM WELL PRONOUNCED OMEGA
BLOCK RIDGE COMPLEX ACRS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A RATHER VIGOROUS VORT
MAX WAS NOTED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO AND INTO THE GRT LKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TONIGHT...THE UPSTREAM FRONT TO THE NORTH ACRS MN INTO FAR NW WI/MI
U.P. AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS...WILL WORK IT/S WAY
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WILL BRING IT
DOWN TO A CID TO DBQ LINE BY 9 PM CDT...ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY
11 PM CDT...AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 1 AM
WITH EYES ON EXITING THE AREA BY 2-3 AM CDT WED MORNING.  THIS
PROGRESSIVE BAND SHOULD NOT LINGER MUCH LONGER THAN 2-3 HRS AT ANY
ONE POINT AND MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF RAINFALL BY THE TIME IT MOVES OUT...MOST AREAS PROBABLY 0.15 OF
AN INCH OR LESS. LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING INDICATED ON SENSORS ATTM
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH AND WONDERING IF WE WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH
THUNDER AT ALL OVERNIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMUM TIME OF DAY TO
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH. BUT SEVERAL MODELS STILL ADVECT A PLUME OF
6.5 TO 7 C/KM MID LAYER LAPSE RATES DOWN ACRS THE AREA FROM 01Z TO
07Z WED...AS WELL AS MUCAPES OF 100-200+ IN THAT SAME LAYER. THUS
WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING IN MOST AREAS.
THE FAR SOUTH MAY BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH LIGHTNING/WEAKENING UPDRAFT
PERCULATIONS BY THE TIME IT GETS DOWN THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOOKING
AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME. POST-FRONTAL VEERING OF WEST
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SOME INCREASE INTO EARLY WED MORNING TO
COOL ADVECT INTO SUNRISE. BUT MIXING WINDS THEMSELVES OF 10-15 MPH
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN MOST AREAS/EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH/ IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. IF THE WINDS WERE TO DECOUPLE AT THE SFC...EXTENT OF
COOLING AIRMASS FLOWING DOWN INTO THE REGION WOULD SUPPORT MORE LOWS
IN THE 30S AGAIN BY 12Z WED.

WEDNESDAY...STEEP NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL DUMP DOWN THE UPPER TO
MID MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY...ALONG WITH BREEZY POST-
FRONTAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOCALLY. FCST HIGHS OF UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S ACRS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA WILL NEED DEEP MIXING UP ABOVE H85 MB
TO GET THOSE VALUES...AND MORE CELLULAR CU WILL ALSO ACT AS A
THERMAL ROBBER ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR. ISOLATED
POP-UP INSTABILITY SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RVR
BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES IN PRIME MIX-OUT WINDOW.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH OF A WIND TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY
BUT WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS JUST YET. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR
ANY FROST WOULD BE VALLEY OR SHELTERED SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WIND.

THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE AROUND 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO OUR FAR SOUTH ENDING THE
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE DRYING
SUNDAY OUT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BUT THE CONSENSUS MODELS
STILL HANG ONTO SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS CAN REMOVE
THESE POPS IF THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
ON SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ECMWF/GFS WANT TO KEY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP HIGH-END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING NOT QUITE THERE YET SO PLENTY OF ROOM TO RAISE POPS LATER.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES ALL TERMINALS BY
04/09Z AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT MLI AND
BRL TERMINALS THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 25 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY OF FEW-SCT
COVERAGE AND BASES AOA 4K AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 032326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE GRT LKS...WHILE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED BACK ACRS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN SD. WIDESPREAD
CELLULAR CU FIELD HAS POPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM
SECTOR...BUT LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE ZAPPED THE HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL BY A
FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN
THIS CU FIELD ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN IL THRU 00Z. ALOFT...12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING UPSTREAM WELL PRONOUNCED OMEGA
BLOCK RIDGE COMPLEX ACRS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A RATHER VIGOROUS VORT
MAX WAS NOTED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO AND INTO THE GRT LKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TONIGHT...THE UPSTREAM FRONT TO THE NORTH ACRS MN INTO FAR NW WI/MI
U.P. AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS...WILL WORK IT/S WAY
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WILL BRING IT
DOWN TO A CID TO DBQ LINE BY 9 PM CDT...ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY
11 PM CDT...AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 1 AM
WITH EYES ON EXITING THE AREA BY 2-3 AM CDT WED MORNING.  THIS
PROGRESSIVE BAND SHOULD NOT LINGER MUCH LONGER THAN 2-3 HRS AT ANY
ONE POINT AND MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF RAINFALL BY THE TIME IT MOVES OUT...MOST AREAS PROBABLY 0.15 OF
AN INCH OR LESS. LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING INDICATED ON SENSORS ATTM
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH AND WONDERING IF WE WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH
THUNDER AT ALL OVERNIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMUM TIME OF DAY TO
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH. BUT SEVERAL MODELS STILL ADVECT A PLUME OF
6.5 TO 7 C/KM MID LAYER LAPSE RATES DOWN ACRS THE AREA FROM 01Z TO
07Z WED...AS WELL AS MUCAPES OF 100-200+ IN THAT SAME LAYER. THUS
WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING IN MOST AREAS.
THE FAR SOUTH MAY BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH LIGHTNING/WEAKENING UPDRAFT
PERCULATIONS BY THE TIME IT GETS DOWN THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOOKING
AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME. POST-FRONTAL VEERING OF WEST
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SOME INCREASE INTO EARLY WED MORNING TO
COOL ADVECT INTO SUNRISE. BUT MIXING WINDS THEMSELVES OF 10-15 MPH
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN MOST AREAS/EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH/ IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. IF THE WINDS WERE TO DECOUPLE AT THE SFC...EXTENT OF
COOLING AIRMASS FLOWING DOWN INTO THE REGION WOULD SUPPORT MORE LOWS
IN THE 30S AGAIN BY 12Z WED.

WEDNESDAY...STEEP NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL DUMP DOWN THE UPPER TO
MID MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY...ALONG WITH BREEZY POST-
FRONTAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOCALLY. FCST HIGHS OF UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S ACRS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA WILL NEED DEEP MIXING UP ABOVE H85 MB
TO GET THOSE VALUES...AND MORE CELLULAR CU WILL ALSO ACT AS A
THERMAL ROBBER ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR. ISOLATED
POP-UP INSTABILITY SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RVR
BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES IN PRIME MIX-OUT WINDOW.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH OF A WIND TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY
BUT WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS JUST YET. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR
ANY FROST WOULD BE VALLEY OR SHELTERED SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WIND.

THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE AROUND 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO OUR FAR SOUTH ENDING THE
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE DRYING
SUNDAY OUT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BUT THE CONSENSUS MODELS
STILL HANG ONTO SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS CAN REMOVE
THESE POPS IF THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
ON SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ECMWF/GFS WANT TO KEY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP HIGH-END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING NOT QUITE THERE YET SO PLENTY OF ROOM TO RAISE POPS LATER.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER ALL OF EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN THE
03Z AND 06Z/04 WINDOW. FOLLOWING THE RAIN...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST AND BLOW AT 10 TO 20 KTS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 032326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE GRT LKS...WHILE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED BACK ACRS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN SD. WIDESPREAD
CELLULAR CU FIELD HAS POPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM
SECTOR...BUT LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE ZAPPED THE HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL BY A
FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN
THIS CU FIELD ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN IL THRU 00Z. ALOFT...12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING UPSTREAM WELL PRONOUNCED OMEGA
BLOCK RIDGE COMPLEX ACRS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A RATHER VIGOROUS VORT
MAX WAS NOTED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO AND INTO THE GRT LKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TONIGHT...THE UPSTREAM FRONT TO THE NORTH ACRS MN INTO FAR NW WI/MI
U.P. AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS...WILL WORK IT/S WAY
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WILL BRING IT
DOWN TO A CID TO DBQ LINE BY 9 PM CDT...ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY
11 PM CDT...AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 1 AM
WITH EYES ON EXITING THE AREA BY 2-3 AM CDT WED MORNING.  THIS
PROGRESSIVE BAND SHOULD NOT LINGER MUCH LONGER THAN 2-3 HRS AT ANY
ONE POINT AND MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF RAINFALL BY THE TIME IT MOVES OUT...MOST AREAS PROBABLY 0.15 OF
AN INCH OR LESS. LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING INDICATED ON SENSORS ATTM
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH AND WONDERING IF WE WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH
THUNDER AT ALL OVERNIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMUM TIME OF DAY TO
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH. BUT SEVERAL MODELS STILL ADVECT A PLUME OF
6.5 TO 7 C/KM MID LAYER LAPSE RATES DOWN ACRS THE AREA FROM 01Z TO
07Z WED...AS WELL AS MUCAPES OF 100-200+ IN THAT SAME LAYER. THUS
WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING IN MOST AREAS.
THE FAR SOUTH MAY BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH LIGHTNING/WEAKENING UPDRAFT
PERCULATIONS BY THE TIME IT GETS DOWN THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOOKING
AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME. POST-FRONTAL VEERING OF WEST
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SOME INCREASE INTO EARLY WED MORNING TO
COOL ADVECT INTO SUNRISE. BUT MIXING WINDS THEMSELVES OF 10-15 MPH
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN MOST AREAS/EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH/ IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. IF THE WINDS WERE TO DECOUPLE AT THE SFC...EXTENT OF
COOLING AIRMASS FLOWING DOWN INTO THE REGION WOULD SUPPORT MORE LOWS
IN THE 30S AGAIN BY 12Z WED.

WEDNESDAY...STEEP NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL DUMP DOWN THE UPPER TO
MID MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY...ALONG WITH BREEZY POST-
FRONTAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOCALLY. FCST HIGHS OF UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S ACRS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA WILL NEED DEEP MIXING UP ABOVE H85 MB
TO GET THOSE VALUES...AND MORE CELLULAR CU WILL ALSO ACT AS A
THERMAL ROBBER ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR. ISOLATED
POP-UP INSTABILITY SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RVR
BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES IN PRIME MIX-OUT WINDOW.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH OF A WIND TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY
BUT WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS JUST YET. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR
ANY FROST WOULD BE VALLEY OR SHELTERED SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WIND.

THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE AROUND 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO OUR FAR SOUTH ENDING THE
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE DRYING
SUNDAY OUT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BUT THE CONSENSUS MODELS
STILL HANG ONTO SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS CAN REMOVE
THESE POPS IF THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
ON SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ECMWF/GFS WANT TO KEY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP HIGH-END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING NOT QUITE THERE YET SO PLENTY OF ROOM TO RAISE POPS LATER.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER ALL OF EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN THE
03Z AND 06Z/04 WINDOW. FOLLOWING THE RAIN...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST AND BLOW AT 10 TO 20 KTS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 032034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE GRT LKS...WHILE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED BACK ACRS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN SD. WIDESPREAD
CELLULAR CU FIELD HAS POPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM
SECTOR...BUT LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE ZAPPED THE HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL BY A
FEW DEGREES. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN
THIS CU FIELD ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN IL THRU 00Z. ALOFT...12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING UPSTREAM WELL PRONOUNCED OMEGA
BLOCK RIDGE COMPLEX ACRS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A RATHER VIGOROUS VORT
MAX WAS NOTED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO AND INTO THE GRT LKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TONIGHT...THE UPSTREAM FRONT TO THE NORTH ACRS MN INTO FAR NW WI/MI
U.P. AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS...WILL WORK IT/S WAY
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. WILL BRING IT
DOWN TO A CID TO DBQ LINE BY 9 PM CDT...ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY
11 PM CDT...AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 1 AM
WITH EYES ON EXITING THE AREA BY 2-3 AM CDT WED MORNING.  THIS
PROGRESSIVE BAND SHOULD NOT LINGER MUCH LONGER THAN 2-3 HRS AT ANY
ONE POINT AND MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO GET A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF RAINFALL BY THE TIME IT MOVES OUT...MOST AREAS PROBABLY 0.15 OF
AN INCH OR LESS. LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING INDICATED ON SENSORS ATTM
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH AND WONDERING IF WE WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH
THUNDER AT ALL OVERNIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN OPTIMUM TIME OF DAY TO
MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH. BUT SEVERAL MODELS STILL ADVECT A PLUME OF
6.5 TO 7 C/KM MID LAYER LAPSE RATES DOWN ACRS THE AREA FROM 01Z TO
07Z WED...AS WELL AS MUCAPES OF 100-200+ IN THAT SAME LAYER. THUS
WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION GOING IN MOST AREAS.
THE FAR SOUTH MAY BE MARGINAL FOR MUCH LIGHTNING/WEAKENING UPDRAFT
PERCULATIONS BY THE TIME IT GETS DOWN THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOOKING
AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME. POST-FRONTAL VEERING OF WEST
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SOME INCREASE INTO EARLY WED MORNING TO
COOL ADVECT INTO SUNRISE. BUT MIXING WINDS THEMSELVES OF 10-15 MPH
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN MOST AREAS/EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH/ IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. IF THE WINDS WERE TO DECOUPLE AT THE SFC...EXTENT OF
COOLING AIRMASS FLOWING DOWN INTO THE REGION WOULD SUPPORT MORE LOWS
IN THE 30S AGAIN BY 12Z WED.

WEDNESDAY...STEEP NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL DUMP DOWN THE UPPER TO
MID MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN OH RVR VALLEY...ALONG WITH BREEZY POST-
FRONTAL COOLING CONDITIONS LOCALLY. FCST HIGHS OF UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S ACRS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA WILL NEED DEEP MIXING UP ABOVE H85 MB
TO GET THOSE VALUES...AND MORE CELLULAR CU WILL ALSO ACT AS A
THERMAL ROBBER ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR. ISOLATED
POP-UP INSTABILITY SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RVR
BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES IN PRIME MIX-OUT WINDOW.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH OF A WIND TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST. SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY
BUT WON`T MENTION IN THE GRIDS JUST YET. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR
ANY FROST WOULD BE VALLEY OR SHELTERED SPOTS AWAY FROM THE WIND.

THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. HIGHS
SHOULD BE AROUND 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO OUR FAR SOUTH ENDING THE
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE DRYING
SUNDAY OUT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BUT THE CONSENSUS MODELS
STILL HANG ONTO SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS CAN REMOVE
THESE POPS IF THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
ON SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ECMWF/GFS WANT TO KEY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP HIGH-END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING NOT QUITE THERE YET SO PLENTY OF ROOM TO RAISE POPS LATER.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CELLULAR INSTABILITY CU HAS REALLY BLOSSOMED TO SCTRD AND BKN
COVERAGE ACRS THE AREA...BUT AT VFR HEIGHTS. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWER
POSSIBLE IN THESE CU FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
VCNTY OF DBQ AND MLI. BREEZY WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP DOWN ACRS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND SWEEP A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER ALONG WITH IT. HAVE TIMED THIS PRECIP WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE TAFS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO REMAIN HIGH
BASED AND AT VFR LEVELS AS THEY PASS BY AT DURATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND 2-3 HRS AT ANY ONE POINT...BUT MAY HAVE FLEETING MVFR VSBYS
WITH THE HEAVIER DOWN POURS. THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABLE ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS WITH THE DOWNPOURS AS WELL. VEERING POST- FRONTAL WINDS
TO NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 031756
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AT 2 AM
CDT. UPSTREAM DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN MANITOBA TO CLIP THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING
THEN COOLER AND DRY INTO THURSDAY..

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH
MAIN ISSUE STRENGTH OF FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE. ANALYSIS AT 2 AM
SUGGEST FORCING IS THERE BUT SURFACE BL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE BY MOST SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 6 TO 8 HOURS TO
BETTER CLARIFY.

TODAY...SUNNY AND A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-80 WITH
AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY NEAR 25 MPH AND 10
TO 15 MPH SOUTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR. HIGHS WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
MAKE WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKELY
REACHING 70 DEGREES AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO MORE. OVERALL A NICE
EARLY MAY DAY FOR OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION MOSTLY BETWEEN 7 PM AND 2 AM. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
AND FAST PROGRESSION SUPPORTS AMOUNTS THAT ARE LIGHT OF LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH AND SOME SPOTS RECEIVING TRACE AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY IN THE 40S WITH CLEARING LATE AND COLDER AIR ARRIVING OVERNIGHT
SUPPORTS LOWS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY STILL A FEW DEGREES TOO MILD
FOR LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A MAINLY DRY REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING
ACTIVE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORCING IS WEAK BUT DAY TIME HEATING MIGHT
ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. GIVE THE LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...FROST LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. IF FROST OCCURS... THE AREA THAT LOOKS
TO BE AT RISK IS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF AN INDEPENDENCE IA TO KEWANEE
IL LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY AND COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

FRIDAY ON...

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE ARE QUESTIONS
REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS.

STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF OVERALL FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOOSE AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT ONE OR MORE STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING THE
MIDWEST.

RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A CONTINUOUS RAIN EVENT.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CELLULAR INSTABILITY CU HAS REALLY BLOSSOMED TO SCTRD AND BKN
COVERAGE ACRS THE AREA...BUT AT VFR HEIGHTS. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWER
POSSIBLE IN THESE CU FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
VCNTY OF DBQ AND MLI. BREEZY WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP DOWN ACRS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND SWEEP A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER ALONG WITH IT. HAVE TIMED THIS PRECIP WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE TAFS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO REMAIN HIGH
BASED AND AT VFR LEVELS AS THEY PASS BY AT DURATIONS GENERALLY
AROUND 2-3 HRS AT ANY ONE POINT...BUT MAY HAVE FLEETING MVFR VSBYS
WITH THE HEAVIER DOWN POURS. THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABLE ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS WITH THE DOWNPOURS AS WELL. VEERING POST- FRONTAL WINDS
TO NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities