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000
FXUS63 KDVN 180440
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE A MUCH WEAKER
DISTURBANCE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KCNU WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM A LOW NORTHERN
LAKE HURON WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS
FUNNELING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. STRONG ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO LOW LEVEL JET AIMED MAINLY TO
OUR WEST... THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION. WITH
THE DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... I HAVE
SIDED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT... HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
FOR NW SECTIONS OF CWA DURING THE AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AND ATTENDANT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH SUCH DRY LOW LEVELS
THOUGH MAY NOT BE MORE THAN ACCAS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES.
AS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY... MODELS SHOW VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH DRAWS IN VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WITH 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE OF 19-20C IN OR VERY NEAR NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH DO NOT SUPPORT MIXING TO 850 MB
(WHICH WOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S)... AND INSTEAD
ONLY SUPPORT MIXING TO AROUND 900 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS MAINLY
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. BASED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE I HAVE OPTED TOWARD BLEND OF THESE AND ADVERTISING
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA IN STRONGER GRADIENT
WITH MIDDLE 70S NORTHEAST CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT... MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE
FAR NORTH FOR SOME PCPN CHANCE IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OCCUR BACK TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
PROPAGATING AND/OR DEVELOPING INTO NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BY SAT AT 7 AM. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MEAN
LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWS INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... LIKELY TO HAVE SOME WEAKENING MORNING PCPN
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF CWA. THEN LOOK TO SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH EXTENT OF HEATING... AMOUNT OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALOFT PLAYING VITAL ROLES IN DETERMINING JUST
HOW MUCH PCPN OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS ON KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SOUTH IN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STEERING FLOW ON EDGE OF DIGGING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. STILL...
SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONNECTING OF MOISTURE
FEED FROM ODILE WITH THE FRONT... BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING HOLDING FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN
COULD SEE LOCALLY AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS 1+ INCHES WITH PWATS SURGING IN
EXCESS OF 1.6-1.7 INCHES PRE-FRONTAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW ATTIM
WITH NON FAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH
STRONGER BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 25-35 KTS MAINLY POST FRONTAL. HIGHS WILL
BE VERY CHALLENGING SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION
OCCURS... AND HAVE KEPT TOWARD PREVIOUS FCSTS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ALLOWS FOR SOME SUNSHINE MIXED WITH CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOLEST NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WHILE
AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT... SECONDARY DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOWN TO SWEEP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THUS AREAS
FROM WI INTO MI FAVORED FOR VERY COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
OUR REGION MORE DOMINATED BY INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDING THUS
DRY AND COOLER... BEING USHERED IN BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT SHOULD WINDS DROP
OFF MORE THEN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 6-8C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. DUE TO DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
NEED TO EXPAND THE DIURNAL RANGE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS POSSIBLY
WARMER DURING DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT... WHERE ONE OR TWO MORNINGS
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S... MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEING FAVORED SECOND MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS FOR MOST OF
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...AND REMAIN UNDER 7 KTS. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO
MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT IN WISCONSIN AND EXTREME
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD IMPACT THE DBQ TERMINAL...AND A
TEMPORARY LOWER VFR CONDITION HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE 11Z-15Z/18
TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO POSSIBLE LAKE MICHIGAN ASSISTED STRATUS
ARRIVING ON NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WHILE COMPUTER MODELS
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...THEY ARE OVER ESTIMATING THIS STRATUS AT THIS
TIME AND WE WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON FORECASTING ITS ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE COMPUTER MODELS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 180440
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE A MUCH WEAKER
DISTURBANCE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KCNU WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM A LOW NORTHERN
LAKE HURON WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS
FUNNELING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. STRONG ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO LOW LEVEL JET AIMED MAINLY TO
OUR WEST... THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION. WITH
THE DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... I HAVE
SIDED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT... HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
FOR NW SECTIONS OF CWA DURING THE AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AND ATTENDANT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH SUCH DRY LOW LEVELS
THOUGH MAY NOT BE MORE THAN ACCAS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES.
AS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY... MODELS SHOW VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH DRAWS IN VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WITH 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE OF 19-20C IN OR VERY NEAR NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH DO NOT SUPPORT MIXING TO 850 MB
(WHICH WOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S)... AND INSTEAD
ONLY SUPPORT MIXING TO AROUND 900 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS MAINLY
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. BASED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE I HAVE OPTED TOWARD BLEND OF THESE AND ADVERTISING
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA IN STRONGER GRADIENT
WITH MIDDLE 70S NORTHEAST CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT... MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE
FAR NORTH FOR SOME PCPN CHANCE IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OCCUR BACK TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
PROPAGATING AND/OR DEVELOPING INTO NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BY SAT AT 7 AM. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MEAN
LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWS INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... LIKELY TO HAVE SOME WEAKENING MORNING PCPN
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF CWA. THEN LOOK TO SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH EXTENT OF HEATING... AMOUNT OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALOFT PLAYING VITAL ROLES IN DETERMINING JUST
HOW MUCH PCPN OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS ON KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SOUTH IN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STEERING FLOW ON EDGE OF DIGGING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. STILL...
SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONNECTING OF MOISTURE
FEED FROM ODILE WITH THE FRONT... BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING HOLDING FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN
COULD SEE LOCALLY AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS 1+ INCHES WITH PWATS SURGING IN
EXCESS OF 1.6-1.7 INCHES PRE-FRONTAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW ATTIM
WITH NON FAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH
STRONGER BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 25-35 KTS MAINLY POST FRONTAL. HIGHS WILL
BE VERY CHALLENGING SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION
OCCURS... AND HAVE KEPT TOWARD PREVIOUS FCSTS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ALLOWS FOR SOME SUNSHINE MIXED WITH CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOLEST NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WHILE
AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT... SECONDARY DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOWN TO SWEEP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THUS AREAS
FROM WI INTO MI FAVORED FOR VERY COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
OUR REGION MORE DOMINATED BY INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDING THUS
DRY AND COOLER... BEING USHERED IN BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT SHOULD WINDS DROP
OFF MORE THEN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 6-8C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. DUE TO DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
NEED TO EXPAND THE DIURNAL RANGE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS POSSIBLY
WARMER DURING DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT... WHERE ONE OR TWO MORNINGS
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S... MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEING FAVORED SECOND MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS FOR MOST OF
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...AND REMAIN UNDER 7 KTS. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO
MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT IN WISCONSIN AND EXTREME
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD IMPACT THE DBQ TERMINAL...AND A
TEMPORARY LOWER VFR CONDITION HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE 11Z-15Z/18
TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO POSSIBLE LAKE MICHIGAN ASSISTED STRATUS
ARRIVING ON NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WHILE COMPUTER MODELS
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...THEY ARE OVER ESTIMATING THIS STRATUS AT THIS
TIME AND WE WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON FORECASTING ITS ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE COMPUTER MODELS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 172316
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE A MUCH WEAKER
DISTURBANCE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KCNU WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM A LOW NORTHERN
LAKE HURON WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS
FUNNELING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. STRONG ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO LOW LEVEL JET AIMED MAINLY TO
OUR WEST... THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION. WITH
THE DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... I HAVE
SIDED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT... HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
FOR NW SECTIONS OF CWA DURING THE AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AND ATTENDANT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH SUCH DRY LOW LEVELS
THOUGH MAY NOT BE MORE THAN ACCAS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES.
AS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY... MODELS SHOW VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH DRAWS IN VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WITH 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE OF 19-20C IN OR VERY NEAR NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH DO NOT SUPPORT MIXING TO 850 MB
(WHICH WOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S)... AND INSTEAD
ONLY SUPPORT MIXING TO AROUND 900 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS MAINLY
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. BASED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE I HAVE OPTED TOWARD BLEND OF THESE AND ADVERTISING
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA IN STRONGER GRADIENT
WITH MIDDLE 70S NORTHEAST CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT... MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE
FAR NORTH FOR SOME PCPN CHANCE IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OCCUR BACK TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
PROPAGATING AND/OR DEVELOPING INTO NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BY SAT AT 7 AM. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MEAN
LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWS INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... LIKELY TO HAVE SOME WEAKENING MORNING PCPN
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF CWA. THEN LOOK TO SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH EXTENT OF HEATING... AMOUNT OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALOFT PLAYING VITAL ROLES IN DETERMINING JUST
HOW MUCH PCPN OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS ON KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SOUTH IN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STEERING FLOW ON EDGE OF DIGGING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. STILL...
SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONNECTING OF MOISTURE
FEED FROM ODILE WITH THE FRONT... BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING HOLDING FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN
COULD SEE LOCALLY AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS 1+ INCHES WITH PWATS SURGING IN
EXCESS OF 1.6-1.7 INCHES PRE-FRONTAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW ATTIM
WITH NON FAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH
STRONGER BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 25-35 KTS MAINLY POST FRONTAL. HIGHS WILL
BE VERY CHALLENGING SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION
OCCURS... AND HAVE KEPT TOWARD PREVIOUS FCSTS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ALLOWS FOR SOME SUNSHINE MIXED WITH CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOLEST NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WHILE
AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT... SECONDARY DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOWN TO SWEEP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THUS AREAS
FROM WI INTO MI FAVORED FOR VERY COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
OUR REGION MORE DOMINATED BY INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDING THUS
DRY AND COOLER... BEING USHERED IN BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT SHOULD WINDS DROP
OFF MORE THEN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 6-8C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. DUE TO DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
NEED TO EXPAND THE DIURNAL RANGE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS POSSIBLY
WARMER DURING DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT... WHERE ONE OR TWO MORNINGS
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S... MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEING FAVORED SECOND MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS FOR MOST OF
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...AND REMAIN UNDER 7 KTS. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO
MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT IN WISCONSIN AND EXTREME
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD IMPACT THE DBQ TERMINAL...AND A
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITION HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE 10Z-14Z/18
TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO POSSIBLE LAKE MICHIGAN ASSISTED STRATUS
ARRIVING ON NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WHILE COMPUTER MODELS
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...THEY ARE OVER ESTIMATING THIS STRATUS AT THIS
TIME AND WE WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON FORECASTING ITS ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE COMPUTER MODELS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 172316
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE A MUCH WEAKER
DISTURBANCE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KCNU WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM A LOW NORTHERN
LAKE HURON WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS
FUNNELING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. STRONG ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO LOW LEVEL JET AIMED MAINLY TO
OUR WEST... THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION. WITH
THE DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... I HAVE
SIDED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT... HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
FOR NW SECTIONS OF CWA DURING THE AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AND ATTENDANT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH SUCH DRY LOW LEVELS
THOUGH MAY NOT BE MORE THAN ACCAS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES.
AS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY... MODELS SHOW VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH DRAWS IN VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WITH 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE OF 19-20C IN OR VERY NEAR NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH DO NOT SUPPORT MIXING TO 850 MB
(WHICH WOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S)... AND INSTEAD
ONLY SUPPORT MIXING TO AROUND 900 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS MAINLY
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. BASED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE I HAVE OPTED TOWARD BLEND OF THESE AND ADVERTISING
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA IN STRONGER GRADIENT
WITH MIDDLE 70S NORTHEAST CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT... MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE
FAR NORTH FOR SOME PCPN CHANCE IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OCCUR BACK TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
PROPAGATING AND/OR DEVELOPING INTO NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BY SAT AT 7 AM. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MEAN
LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWS INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... LIKELY TO HAVE SOME WEAKENING MORNING PCPN
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF CWA. THEN LOOK TO SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH EXTENT OF HEATING... AMOUNT OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALOFT PLAYING VITAL ROLES IN DETERMINING JUST
HOW MUCH PCPN OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS ON KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SOUTH IN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STEERING FLOW ON EDGE OF DIGGING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. STILL...
SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONNECTING OF MOISTURE
FEED FROM ODILE WITH THE FRONT... BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING HOLDING FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN
COULD SEE LOCALLY AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS 1+ INCHES WITH PWATS SURGING IN
EXCESS OF 1.6-1.7 INCHES PRE-FRONTAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW ATTIM
WITH NON FAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH
STRONGER BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 25-35 KTS MAINLY POST FRONTAL. HIGHS WILL
BE VERY CHALLENGING SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION
OCCURS... AND HAVE KEPT TOWARD PREVIOUS FCSTS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ALLOWS FOR SOME SUNSHINE MIXED WITH CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOLEST NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WHILE
AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT... SECONDARY DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOWN TO SWEEP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THUS AREAS
FROM WI INTO MI FAVORED FOR VERY COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
OUR REGION MORE DOMINATED BY INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDING THUS
DRY AND COOLER... BEING USHERED IN BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT SHOULD WINDS DROP
OFF MORE THEN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 6-8C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. DUE TO DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
NEED TO EXPAND THE DIURNAL RANGE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS POSSIBLY
WARMER DURING DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT... WHERE ONE OR TWO MORNINGS
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S... MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEING FAVORED SECOND MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS FOR MOST OF
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...AND REMAIN UNDER 7 KTS. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO
MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT IN WISCONSIN AND EXTREME
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD IMPACT THE DBQ TERMINAL...AND A
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITION HAS BEEN PLACED INTO THE 10Z-14Z/18
TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO POSSIBLE LAKE MICHIGAN ASSISTED STRATUS
ARRIVING ON NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...WHILE COMPUTER MODELS
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...THEY ARE OVER ESTIMATING THIS STRATUS AT THIS
TIME AND WE WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON FORECASTING ITS ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE COMPUTER MODELS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 172044
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE A MUCH WEAKER
DISTURBANCE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KCNU WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM A LOW NORTHERN
LAKE HURON WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS
FUNNELING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. STRONG ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO LOW LEVEL JET AIMED MAINLY TO
OUR WEST... THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION. WITH
THE DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... I HAVE
SIDED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT... HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
FOR NW SECTIONS OF CWA DURING THE AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AND ATTENDANT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH SUCH DRY LOW LEVELS
THOUGH MAY NOT BE MORE THAN ACCAS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES.
AS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY... MODELS SHOW VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH DRAWS IN VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WITH 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE OF 19-20C IN OR VERY NEAR NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH DO NOT SUPPORT MIXING TO 850 MB
(WHICH WOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S)... AND INSTEAD
ONLY SUPPORT MIXING TO AROUND 900 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS MAINLY
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. BASED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE I HAVE OPTED TOWARD BLEND OF THESE AND ADVERTISING
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA IN STRONGER GRADIENT
WITH MIDDLE 70S NORTHEAST CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT... MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE
FAR NORTH FOR SOME PCPN CHANCE IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OCCUR BACK TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
PROPAGATING AND/OR DEVELOPING INTO NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BY SAT AT 7 AM. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MEAN
LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWS INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... LIKELY TO HAVE SOME WEAKENING MORNING PCPN
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF CWA. THEN LOOK TO SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH EXTENT OF HEATING... AMOUNT OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALOFT PLAYING VITAL ROLES IN DETERMINING JUST
HOW MUCH PCPN OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS ON KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SOUTH IN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STEERING FLOW ON EDGE OF DIGGING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. STILL...
SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONNECTING OF MOISTURE
FEED FROM ODILE WITH THE FRONT... BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING HOLDING FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN
COULD SEE LOCALLY AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS 1+ INCHES WITH PWATS SURGING IN
EXCESS OF 1.6-1.7 INCHES PRE-FRONTAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW ATTIM
WITH NON FAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH
STRONGER BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 25-35 KTS MAINLY POST FRONTAL. HIGHS WILL
BE VERY CHALLENGING SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION
OCCURS... AND HAVE KEPT TOWARD PREVIOUS FCSTS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ALLOWS FOR SOME SUNSHINE MIXED WITH CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOLEST NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WHILE
AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT... SECONDARY DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOWN TO SWEEP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THUS AREAS
FROM WI INTO MI FAVORED FOR VERY COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
OUR REGION MORE DOMINATED BY INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDING THUS
DRY AND COOLER... BEING USHERED IN BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT SHOULD WINDS DROP
OFF MORE THEN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 6-8C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. DUE TO DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
NEED TO EXPAND THE DIURNAL RANGE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS POSSIBLY
WARMER DURING DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT... WHERE ONE OR TWO MORNINGS
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S... MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEING FAVORED SECOND MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/19 AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 172044
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE A MUCH WEAKER
DISTURBANCE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SHOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MISSOURI DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KCNU WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM A LOW NORTHERN
LAKE HURON WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

QUIET...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS
FUNNELING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. STRONG ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO LOW LEVEL JET AIMED MAINLY TO
OUR WEST... THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION. WITH
THE DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... I HAVE
SIDED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT... HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
FOR NW SECTIONS OF CWA DURING THE AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AND ATTENDANT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH SUCH DRY LOW LEVELS
THOUGH MAY NOT BE MORE THAN ACCAS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES.
AS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY... MODELS SHOW VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH DRAWS IN VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR WITH 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE OF 19-20C IN OR VERY NEAR NORTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS THOUGH DO NOT SUPPORT MIXING TO 850 MB
(WHICH WOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S)... AND INSTEAD
ONLY SUPPORT MIXING TO AROUND 900 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS MAINLY
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. BASED ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE I HAVE OPTED TOWARD BLEND OF THESE AND ADVERTISING
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA IN STRONGER GRADIENT
WITH MIDDLE 70S NORTHEAST CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT... MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE
FAR NORTH FOR SOME PCPN CHANCE IN THE EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE SKIRTING
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OCCUR BACK TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
PROPAGATING AND/OR DEVELOPING INTO NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BY SAT AT 7 AM. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL MEAN
LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWS INTO THE 50S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... LIKELY TO HAVE SOME WEAKENING MORNING PCPN
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/WEST PORTIONS OF CWA. THEN LOOK TO SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH EXTENT OF HEATING... AMOUNT OF FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALOFT PLAYING VITAL ROLES IN DETERMINING JUST
HOW MUCH PCPN OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL
CONSENSUS ON KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SOUTH IN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER STEERING FLOW ON EDGE OF DIGGING UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH. STILL...
SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME CONNECTING OF MOISTURE
FEED FROM ODILE WITH THE FRONT... BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
TIMING HOLDING FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN
COULD SEE LOCALLY AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINS 1+ INCHES WITH PWATS SURGING IN
EXCESS OF 1.6-1.7 INCHES PRE-FRONTAL. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW ATTIM
WITH NON FAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH
STRONGER BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 25-35 KTS MAINLY POST FRONTAL. HIGHS WILL
BE VERY CHALLENGING SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION
OCCURS... AND HAVE KEPT TOWARD PREVIOUS FCSTS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ALLOWS FOR SOME SUNSHINE MIXED WITH CLOUDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA WITH THE FRONT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOLEST NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WHILE
AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT... SECONDARY DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOWN TO SWEEP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THUS AREAS
FROM WI INTO MI FAVORED FOR VERY COOL AND PERHAPS SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
OUR REGION MORE DOMINATED BY INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDING THUS
DRY AND COOLER... BEING USHERED IN BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT SHOULD WINDS DROP
OFF MORE THEN WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 6-8C COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH POSSIBLY LOWER 40S IN FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. DUE TO DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
NEED TO EXPAND THE DIURNAL RANGE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS POSSIBLY
WARMER DURING DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT... WHERE ONE OR TWO MORNINGS
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S... MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEING FAVORED SECOND MORNING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/19 AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 171731
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CLOUDS FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE HAVE HELD ON LONGER THAN
THOUGHT. CLEARING IS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MACOMB
AREA...AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FAR SOUTH. ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WERE SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT PLAN ON LEAVING OUT OF FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
MISSOURI. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND QUITE PLEASANT
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HAVE BOOSTED TUESDAY`S HIGHS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES...
WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS OF 67 TO 72 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WILL A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED
TO BOOST LOWS INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO REIGN THU...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THU AM INDUCED BY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTH-WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS INDUCED BY THIS PROCESS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CWA CLEAR...WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THU
AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG HWY 20...MAINLY LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. RIDGE HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RATHER COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW LATE AS WELL AS
SOME NOCTURNAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS/AC MAY PRODUCE STEADY TO SLOW RISE
TEMP TENDS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. FLATTENED STEERING FLOW ACRS THE
MID CONUS OVER INCREASING LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT FOR FRI...
BOOST IN WARMING ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MUCH OF THE CWA. THINK THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF IS ON TO
SOMETHING IN SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL IA AND ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. MCS FCST TOOLS SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNDER THE MAIN WESTERLY STORM
TRACK AND AHEAD OF EMBEDDED WAVE LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH A
CHC FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BLEED DOWN SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
NOW ARE LESS BULLISH ON SWEEPING PORTIONS OF ODILE REMNANTS UP ACRS
THE CWA ON SAT. THEY NOW SUGGEST THE CWA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
FORCING OFF DIGGING L/W TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACRS THE UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE GRT LKS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THIS ALTERNATE
PROCESS WOULD STILL SWEEP A FRONT THROUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH HEATING/WARM UP ON SAT...
THERE COULD BE A CHC FOR SOME STRONG STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PLAY SAT HIGHS
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE INCOMING FRONT...CHANCE FOR MORE 80S BEFORE
THE PRECIP BLOSSOMS. SUNDAY A BIT COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL DAY.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AGAIN... BUT
THE LONGER RANGE SIGNAL IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN AGAIN...WITH L/W TROFFINESS DIGGING ACRS THE GRT LKS AND OH
RVR VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPORARY REX TYPE BLOCK OUT TO THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK...STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR COOL DUMPS
DOWN INTO THE REGION. WITH ADEQUATE SFC RIDGE PLACEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED COOL INFLUX...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NIGHT WELL DOWN IN
THE 40S OR EVEN INTO THE 30S...IF NOT MON NIGHT THEN THE FOLLOWING
TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FRO NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
A RE-ENFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT BANDED SHOWERS
EVEN IN A DRYING COLUMN WITH BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING MON AFTERNOON FOR THIS WINDOW.       ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/19 AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 171731
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

CLOUDS FROM THE PASSING DISTURBANCE HAVE HELD ON LONGER THAN
THOUGHT. CLEARING IS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MACOMB
AREA...AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FAR SOUTH. ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WERE SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT PLAN ON LEAVING OUT OF FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
MISSOURI. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND QUITE PLEASANT
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HAVE BOOSTED TUESDAY`S HIGHS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES...
WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS OF 67 TO 72 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WILL A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED
TO BOOST LOWS INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO REIGN THU...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THU AM INDUCED BY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTH-WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS INDUCED BY THIS PROCESS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CWA CLEAR...WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THU
AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG HWY 20...MAINLY LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. RIDGE HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RATHER COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW LATE AS WELL AS
SOME NOCTURNAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS/AC MAY PRODUCE STEADY TO SLOW RISE
TEMP TENDS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. FLATTENED STEERING FLOW ACRS THE
MID CONUS OVER INCREASING LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT FOR FRI...
BOOST IN WARMING ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MUCH OF THE CWA. THINK THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF IS ON TO
SOMETHING IN SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL IA AND ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. MCS FCST TOOLS SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNDER THE MAIN WESTERLY STORM
TRACK AND AHEAD OF EMBEDDED WAVE LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH A
CHC FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BLEED DOWN SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
NOW ARE LESS BULLISH ON SWEEPING PORTIONS OF ODILE REMNANTS UP ACRS
THE CWA ON SAT. THEY NOW SUGGEST THE CWA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
FORCING OFF DIGGING L/W TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACRS THE UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE GRT LKS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THIS ALTERNATE
PROCESS WOULD STILL SWEEP A FRONT THROUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH HEATING/WARM UP ON SAT...
THERE COULD BE A CHC FOR SOME STRONG STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PLAY SAT HIGHS
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE INCOMING FRONT...CHANCE FOR MORE 80S BEFORE
THE PRECIP BLOSSOMS. SUNDAY A BIT COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL DAY.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AGAIN... BUT
THE LONGER RANGE SIGNAL IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN AGAIN...WITH L/W TROFFINESS DIGGING ACRS THE GRT LKS AND OH
RVR VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPORARY REX TYPE BLOCK OUT TO THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK...STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR COOL DUMPS
DOWN INTO THE REGION. WITH ADEQUATE SFC RIDGE PLACEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED COOL INFLUX...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NIGHT WELL DOWN IN
THE 40S OR EVEN INTO THE 30S...IF NOT MON NIGHT THEN THE FOLLOWING
TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FRO NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
A RE-ENFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT BANDED SHOWERS
EVEN IN A DRYING COLUMN WITH BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING MON AFTERNOON FOR THIS WINDOW.       ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/19 AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 171134
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MACOMB
AREA...AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FAR SOUTH. ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WERE SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT PLAN ON LEAVING OUT OF FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
MISSOURI. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND QUITE PLEASANT
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HAVE BOOSTED TUESDAY`S HIGHS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES...
WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS OF 67 TO 72 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WILL A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED
TO BOOST LOWS INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO REIGN THU...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THU AM INDUCED BY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTH-WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS INDUCED BY THIS PROCESS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CWA CLEAR...WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THU
AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG HWY 20...MAINLY LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. RIDGE HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RATHER COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW LATE AS WELL AS
SOME NOCTURNAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS/AC MAY PRODUCE STEADY TO SLOW RISE
TEMP TENDS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. FLATTENED STEERING FLOW ACRS THE
MID CONUS OVER INCREASING LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT FOR FRI...
BOOST IN WARMING ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MUCH OF THE CWA. THINK THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF IS ON TO
SOMETHING IN SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL IA AND ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. MCS FCST TOOLS SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNDER THE MAIN WESTERLY STORM
TRACK AND AHEAD OF EMBEDDED WAVE LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH A
CHC FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BLEED DOWN SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
NOW ARE LESS BULLISH ON SWEEPING PORTIONS OF ODILE REMNANTS UP ACRS
THE CWA ON SAT. THEY NOW SUGGEST THE CWA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
FORCING OFF DIGGING L/W TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACRS THE UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE GRT LKS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THIS ALTERNATE
PROCESS WOULD STILL SWEEP A FRONT THROUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH HEATING/WARM UP ON SAT...
THERE COULD BE A CHC FOR SOME STRONG STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PLAY SAT HIGHS
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE INCOMING FRONT...CHANCE FOR MORE 80S BEFORE
THE PRECIP BLOSSOMS. SUNDAY A BIT COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL DAY.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AGAIN... BUT
THE LONGER RANGE SIGNAL IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN AGAIN...WITH L/W TROFFINESS DIGGING ACRS THE GRT LKS AND OH
RVR VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPORARY REX TYPE BLOCK OUT TO THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK...STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR COOL DUMPS
DOWN INTO THE REGION. WITH ADEQUATE SFC RIDGE PLACEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED COOL INFLUX...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NIGHT WELL DOWN IN
THE 40S OR EVEN INTO THE 30S...IF NOT MON NIGHT THEN THE FOLLOWING
TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FRO NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
A RE-ENFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT BANDED SHOWERS
EVEN IN A DRYING COLUMN WITH BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING MON AFTERNOON FOR THIS WINDOW.       ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 5000 FT AGL WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 171134
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MACOMB
AREA...AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE FAR SOUTH. ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WERE SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT PLAN ON LEAVING OUT OF FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
MISSOURI. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND QUITE PLEASANT
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HAVE BOOSTED TUESDAY`S HIGHS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES...
WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS OF 67 TO 72 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WILL A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED
TO BOOST LOWS INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO REIGN THU...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THU AM INDUCED BY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTH-WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS INDUCED BY THIS PROCESS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CWA CLEAR...WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THU
AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG HWY 20...MAINLY LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. RIDGE HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RATHER COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW LATE AS WELL AS
SOME NOCTURNAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS/AC MAY PRODUCE STEADY TO SLOW RISE
TEMP TENDS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. FLATTENED STEERING FLOW ACRS THE
MID CONUS OVER INCREASING LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT FOR FRI...
BOOST IN WARMING ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MUCH OF THE CWA. THINK THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF IS ON TO
SOMETHING IN SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL IA AND ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. MCS FCST TOOLS SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNDER THE MAIN WESTERLY STORM
TRACK AND AHEAD OF EMBEDDED WAVE LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH A
CHC FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BLEED DOWN SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
NOW ARE LESS BULLISH ON SWEEPING PORTIONS OF ODILE REMNANTS UP ACRS
THE CWA ON SAT. THEY NOW SUGGEST THE CWA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
FORCING OFF DIGGING L/W TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACRS THE UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE GRT LKS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THIS ALTERNATE
PROCESS WOULD STILL SWEEP A FRONT THROUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH HEATING/WARM UP ON SAT...
THERE COULD BE A CHC FOR SOME STRONG STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PLAY SAT HIGHS
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE INCOMING FRONT...CHANCE FOR MORE 80S BEFORE
THE PRECIP BLOSSOMS. SUNDAY A BIT COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL DAY.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AGAIN... BUT
THE LONGER RANGE SIGNAL IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN AGAIN...WITH L/W TROFFINESS DIGGING ACRS THE GRT LKS AND OH
RVR VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPORARY REX TYPE BLOCK OUT TO THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK...STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR COOL DUMPS
DOWN INTO THE REGION. WITH ADEQUATE SFC RIDGE PLACEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED COOL INFLUX...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NIGHT WELL DOWN IN
THE 40S OR EVEN INTO THE 30S...IF NOT MON NIGHT THEN THE FOLLOWING
TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FRO NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
A RE-ENFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT BANDED SHOWERS
EVEN IN A DRYING COLUMN WITH BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING MON AFTERNOON FOR THIS WINDOW.       ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 5000 FT AGL WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 170842
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
342 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WERE SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT PLAN ON LEAVING OUT OF FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
MISSOURI. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND QUITE PLEASANT
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HAVE BOOSTED TUESDAY`S HIGHS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES...
WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS OF 67 TO 72 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WILL A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED
TO BOOST LOWS INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.    RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO REIGN THU...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THU AM INDUCED BY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTH-WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS INDUCED BY THIS PROCESS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CWA CLEAR...WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THU
AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG HWY 20...MAINLY LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. RIDGE HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RATHER COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW LATE AS WELL AS
SOME NOCTURNAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS/AC MAY PRODUCE STEADY TO SLOW RISE
TEMP TENDS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. FLATTENED STEERING FLOW ACRS THE
MID CONUS OVER INCREASING LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT FOR FRI...
BOOST IN WARMING ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MUCH OF THE CWA. THINK THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF IS ON TO
SOMETHING IN SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL IA AND ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. MCS FCST TOOLS SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNDER THE MAIN WESTERLY STORM
TRACK AND AHEAD OF EMBEDDED WAVE LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH A
CHC FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BLEED DOWN SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
NOW ARE LESS BULLISH ON SWEEPING PORTIONS OF ODILE REMNANTS UP ACRS
THE CWA ON SAT. THEY NOW SUGGEST THE CWA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
FORCING OFF DIGGING L/W TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACRS THE UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE GRT LKS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THIS ALTERNATE
PROCESS WOULD STILL SWEEP A FRONT THROUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH HEATING/WARM UP ON SAT...
THERE COULD BE A CHC FOR SOME STRONG STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PLAY SAT HIGHS
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE INCOMING FRONT...CHANCE FOR MORE 80S BEFORE
THE PRECIP BLOSSOMS. SUNDAY A BIT COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL DAY.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AGAIN... BUT
THE LONGER RANGE SIGNAL IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN AGAIN...WITH L/W TROFFINESS DIGGING ACRS THE GRT LKS AND OH
RVR VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPORARY REX TYPE BLOCK OUT TO THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK...STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR COOL DUMPS
DOWN INTO THE REGION. WITH ADEQUATE SFC RIDGE PLACEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED COOL INFLUX...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NIGHT WELL DOWN IN
THE 40S OR EVEN INTO THE 30S...IF NOT MON NIGHT THEN THE FOLLOWING
TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FRO NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
A RE-ENFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT BANDED SHOWERS
EVEN IN A DRYING COLUMN WITH BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING MON AFTERNOON FOR THIS WINDOW.       ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL TIMES...AND WILL MAINLY BE
REPRESENTED BY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3 KTS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 5000 FT...THIS LOW
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 170842
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
342 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WERE SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S IN FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
FOG AT BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT PLAN ON LEAVING OUT OF FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
MISSOURI. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND QUITE PLEASANT
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HAVE BOOSTED TUESDAY`S HIGHS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES...
WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS OF 67 TO 72 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WILL A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED
TO BOOST LOWS INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S.    RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GRT LKS SFC HIGH TO REIGN THU...ALTHOUGH SOME
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA THU AM INDUCED BY VORT EMBEDDED IN NORTH-WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS INDUCED BY THIS PROCESS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CWA CLEAR...WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THU
AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG HWY 20...MAINLY LOWER
70S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80. RIDGE HOLDS
ON LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER RATHER COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW LATE AS WELL AS
SOME NOCTURNAL WAA TYPE CLOUDS/AC MAY PRODUCE STEADY TO SLOW RISE
TEMP TENDS INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. FLATTENED STEERING FLOW ACRS THE
MID CONUS OVER INCREASING LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT FOR FRI...
BOOST IN WARMING ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MUCH OF THE CWA. THINK THE NEW 00Z RUN ECMWF IS ON TO
SOMETHING IN SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL IA AND ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW. MCS FCST TOOLS SUGGEST THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE UNDER THE MAIN WESTERLY STORM
TRACK AND AHEAD OF EMBEDDED WAVE LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH A
CHC FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BLEED DOWN SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LATEST SUITE OF 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
NOW ARE LESS BULLISH ON SWEEPING PORTIONS OF ODILE REMNANTS UP ACRS
THE CWA ON SAT. THEY NOW SUGGEST THE CWA TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY
FORCING OFF DIGGING L/W TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACRS THE UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY AND INTO THE GRT LKS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THIS ALTERNATE
PROCESS WOULD STILL SWEEP A FRONT THROUGH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH HEATING/WARM UP ON SAT...
THERE COULD BE A CHC FOR SOME STRONG STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. WILL PLAY SAT HIGHS
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE INCOMING FRONT...CHANCE FOR MORE 80S BEFORE
THE PRECIP BLOSSOMS. SUNDAY A BIT COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL DAY.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AGAIN... BUT
THE LONGER RANGE SIGNAL IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN AGAIN...WITH L/W TROFFINESS DIGGING ACRS THE GRT LKS AND OH
RVR VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPORARY REX TYPE BLOCK OUT TO THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK...STEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR COOL DUMPS
DOWN INTO THE REGION. WITH ADEQUATE SFC RIDGE PLACEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED COOL INFLUX...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NIGHT WELL DOWN IN
THE 40S OR EVEN INTO THE 30S...IF NOT MON NIGHT THEN THE FOLLOWING
TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FRO NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
A RE-ENFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT BANDED SHOWERS
EVEN IN A DRYING COLUMN WITH BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING MON AFTERNOON FOR THIS WINDOW.       ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL TIMES...AND WILL MAINLY BE
REPRESENTED BY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3 KTS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 5000 FT...THIS LOW
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 170459
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1159 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. NEAR RECORD MOISTURE LEVELS OVER MEXICO AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO BE WATCHED
WITH NW FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD
WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE
SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR MINS ON LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
RIVERS AND LOW LYING SPOTS BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL ATTM.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OF VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF OUR COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS WITH
SOME BL MIXING SUGGESTED TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 66 TO 72 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESUMES WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL TIMES...AND WILL MAINLY BE
REPRESENTED BY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3 KTS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 5000 FT...THIS LOW
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 170459
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1159 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. NEAR RECORD MOISTURE LEVELS OVER MEXICO AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO BE WATCHED
WITH NW FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD
WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE
SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR MINS ON LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
RIVERS AND LOW LYING SPOTS BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL ATTM.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OF VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF OUR COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS WITH
SOME BL MIXING SUGGESTED TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 66 TO 72 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESUMES WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL TIMES...AND WILL MAINLY BE
REPRESENTED BY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3 KTS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 5000 FT...THIS LOW
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 162305
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
605 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. NEAR RECORD MOISTURE LEVELS OVER MEXICO AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO BE WATCHED
WITH NW FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD
WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE
SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR MINS ON LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
RIVERS AND LOW LYING SPOTS BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL ATTM.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OF VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF OUR COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS WITH
SOME BL MIXING SUGGESTED TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 66 TO 72 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESUMES WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL TIMES...AND WILL MAINLY BE
REPRESENTED BY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3 KTS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 5000 FT...THIS LOW
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 162305
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
605 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. NEAR RECORD MOISTURE LEVELS OVER MEXICO AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO BE WATCHED
WITH NW FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD
WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE
SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR MINS ON LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
RIVERS AND LOW LYING SPOTS BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL ATTM.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OF VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF OUR COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS WITH
SOME BL MIXING SUGGESTED TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 66 TO 72 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESUMES WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR VFR WEATHER SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL TIMES...AND WILL MAINLY BE
REPRESENTED BY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3 KTS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 5000 FT...THIS LOW
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 161950
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. NEAR RECORD MOISTURE LEVELS OVER MEXICO AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO BE WATCHED
WITH NW FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD
WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE
SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR MINS ON LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
RIVERS AND LOW LYING SPOTS BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL ATTM.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OF VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF OUR COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS WITH
SOME BL MIXING SUGGESTED TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 66 TO 72 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESUMES WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17/18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 161950
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. NEAR RECORD MOISTURE LEVELS OVER MEXICO AND THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO BE WATCHED
WITH NW FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD
WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE
SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR MINS ON LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
RIVERS AND LOW LYING SPOTS BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL ATTM.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT OF VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT FOG.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF OUR COOL AIRMASS. HIGHS WITH
SOME BL MIXING SUGGESTED TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS OF 66 TO 72 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESUMES WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17/18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 161806
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
106 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WAS RESULTING IN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WAPSI
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AREAS WITH CALM WINDS. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND IS
KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS CWA-WIDE UNTIL 13Z. EARLY MORNING
LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE...WHICH RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 DEGREES AT THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE
SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A LIGHT WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE 850MB COOL POCKET IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOW 60S
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH
WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. AM EXPECTING A WIDER NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAN SUGGESTED BY CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE. THE FREEPORT AREA LOOKS TO BE THE COOL SPOT...AND MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO
OCCUPY MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GRT LKS WEST OF EAST
COAST L/W TROUGH DURING MIDWEEK. LARGE LLVL BACKDOOR TYPE ANTICYCLONE
PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS TO ENGULF THE GRT LKS
THROUGH THU...WITH DRY FETCH EAST TO NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND EVEN DEEPER INFLUENCE KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH FRI AM.
CONVERGENT LLVL RETURN FLOW TO FESTER SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH JUST MAYBE SOME HIGHER LVL
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. STILL THOUGH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION WED AND THU...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THU. LIGHT EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN SUBTLE CONVERGENT REGIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...BUT DRYING SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THEN MAKES THIS
OCCURRENCE LESS PROBABLE. LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX TO MIGRATE EASTWARD BY WEEKS END AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
PRESSES OUT/FLATTENS AS IT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE ONSLAUGHT/CENTRAL CANADIAN PHASING. STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW SIGNALS FOR FRI WITH ADEQUATE MIXING IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH A RETURN TO THE 80S POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT
CURRENTLY SEE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR PRECIP TO FIRE ON IN THIS REGIME
ALTHOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO RETURN AS WELL. MAYBE JUST AN
ISOLATED AMBIENT AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
LOCAL AREA PROBABLY TO REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS FRESHLY
ENERGIZED WESTERLIES LIGHT UP THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACRS TO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT MONDAY...INTERESTING SIGNAL ON THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF OF SUGGESTING REMNANTS
OF ODILE TO GET DRAWN UP IN L/W PHASING PROCESS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SAT...WITH A POSSIBLY CLOSED CIRCULATION/CYCLONE
PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ACRS THE MID TO UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY. THE 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LLVL CIRCULATION TO
ROLL UP ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY SAT NIGHT...
EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN DEF ZONE TYPE FEATURE ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED UP ALONG WITH IT BOOSTING
PWAT/S TO UNSEASONABLE LEVELS AGAIN COULD MEAN 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFINITE TREND TO WATCH IN
UPCOMING SOLUTIONS/MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. WITH ANOTHER
FRESHLY ESTABLISHED L/W TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ACRS THE GRT
LKS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER COOL DUMP
DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY BY NEXT MON OR TUE.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17/06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 161806
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
106 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WAS RESULTING IN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WAPSI
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AREAS WITH CALM WINDS. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND IS
KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS CWA-WIDE UNTIL 13Z. EARLY MORNING
LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE...WHICH RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 DEGREES AT THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE
SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A LIGHT WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE 850MB COOL POCKET IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOW 60S
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH
WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. AM EXPECTING A WIDER NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAN SUGGESTED BY CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE. THE FREEPORT AREA LOOKS TO BE THE COOL SPOT...AND MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO
OCCUPY MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GRT LKS WEST OF EAST
COAST L/W TROUGH DURING MIDWEEK. LARGE LLVL BACKDOOR TYPE ANTICYCLONE
PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS TO ENGULF THE GRT LKS
THROUGH THU...WITH DRY FETCH EAST TO NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND EVEN DEEPER INFLUENCE KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH FRI AM.
CONVERGENT LLVL RETURN FLOW TO FESTER SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH JUST MAYBE SOME HIGHER LVL
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. STILL THOUGH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION WED AND THU...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THU. LIGHT EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN SUBTLE CONVERGENT REGIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...BUT DRYING SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THEN MAKES THIS
OCCURRENCE LESS PROBABLE. LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX TO MIGRATE EASTWARD BY WEEKS END AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
PRESSES OUT/FLATTENS AS IT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE ONSLAUGHT/CENTRAL CANADIAN PHASING. STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW SIGNALS FOR FRI WITH ADEQUATE MIXING IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH A RETURN TO THE 80S POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT
CURRENTLY SEE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR PRECIP TO FIRE ON IN THIS REGIME
ALTHOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO RETURN AS WELL. MAYBE JUST AN
ISOLATED AMBIENT AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
LOCAL AREA PROBABLY TO REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS FRESHLY
ENERGIZED WESTERLIES LIGHT UP THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACRS TO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT MONDAY...INTERESTING SIGNAL ON THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF OF SUGGESTING REMNANTS
OF ODILE TO GET DRAWN UP IN L/W PHASING PROCESS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SAT...WITH A POSSIBLY CLOSED CIRCULATION/CYCLONE
PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ACRS THE MID TO UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY. THE 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LLVL CIRCULATION TO
ROLL UP ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY SAT NIGHT...
EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN DEF ZONE TYPE FEATURE ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED UP ALONG WITH IT BOOSTING
PWAT/S TO UNSEASONABLE LEVELS AGAIN COULD MEAN 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFINITE TREND TO WATCH IN
UPCOMING SOLUTIONS/MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. WITH ANOTHER
FRESHLY ESTABLISHED L/W TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ACRS THE GRT
LKS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER COOL DUMP
DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY BY NEXT MON OR TUE.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17/06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 161151
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WAS RESULTING IN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WAPSI
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AREAS WITH CALM WINDS. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND IS
KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS CWA-WIDE UNTIL 13Z. EARLY MORNING
LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE...WHICH RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 DEGREES AT THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE
SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A LIGHT WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE 850MB COOL POCKET IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOW 60S
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH
WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. AM EXPECTING A WIDER NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAN SUGGESTED BY CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE. THE FREEPORT AREA LOOKS TO BE THE COOL SPOT...AND MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO
OCCUPY MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GRT LKS WEST OF EAST
COAST L/W TROUGH DURING MIDWEEK. LARGE LLVL BACKDOOR TYPE ANTICYCLONE
PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS TO ENGULF THE GRT LKS
THROUGH THU...WITH DRY FETCH EAST TO NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND EVEN DEEPER INFLUENCE KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH FRI AM.
CONVERGENT LLVL RETURN FLOW TO FESTER SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH JUST MAYBE SOME HIGHER LVL
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. STILL THOUGH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION WED AND THU...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THU. LIGHT EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN SUBTLE CONVERGENT REGIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...BUT DRYING SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THEN MAKES THIS
OCCURRENCE LESS PROBABLE. LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX TO MIGRATE EASTWARD BY WEEKS END AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
PRESSES OUT/FLATTENS AS IT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE ONSLAUGHT/CENTRAL CANADIAN PHASING. STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW SIGNALS FOR FRI WITH ADEQUATE MIXING IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH A RETURN TO THE 80S POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT
CURRENTLY SEE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR PRECIP TO FIRE ON IN THIS REGIME
ALTHOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO RETURN AS WELL. MAYBE JUST AN
ISOLATED AMBIENT AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
LOCAL AREA PROBABLY TO REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS FRESHLY
ENERGIZED WESTERLIES LIGHT UP THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACRS TO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT MONDAY...INTERESTING SIGNAL ON THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF OF SUGGESTING REMNANTS
OF ODILE TO GET DRAWN UP IN L/W PHASING PROCESS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SAT...WITH A POSSIBLY CLOSED CIRCULATION/CYCLONE
PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ACRS THE MID TO UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY. THE 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LLVL CIRCULATION TO
ROLL UP ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY SAT NIGHT...
EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN DEF ZONE TYPE FEATURE ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED UP ALONG WITH IT BOOSTING
PWAT/S TO UNSEASONABLE LEVELS AGAIN COULD MEAN 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFINITE TREND TO WATCH IN
UPCOMING SOLUTIONS/MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. WITH ANOTHER
FRESHLY ESTABLISHED L/W TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ACRS THE GRT
LKS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER COOL DUMP
DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY BY NEXT MON OR TUE.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BRIEF PERIODS OF MAINLY MVFR FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 160853
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WAS RESULTING IN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WAPSI
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AREAS WITH CALM WINDS. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND IS
KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS CWA-WIDE UNTIL 13Z. EARLY MORNING
LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE...WHICH RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 DEGREES AT THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE
SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A LIGHT WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE 850MB COOL POCKET IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOW 60S
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH
WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. AM EXPECTING A WIDER NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAN SUGGESTED BY CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE. THE FREEPORT AREA LOOKS TO BE THE COOL SPOT...AND MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.    RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO
OCCUPY MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GRT LKS WEST OF EAST
COAST L/W TROUGH DURING MIDWEEK. LARGE LLVL BACKDOOR TYPE ANTICYCLONE
PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS TO ENGULF THE GRT LKS
THROUGH THU...WITH DRY FETCH EAST TO NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND EVEN DEEPER INFLUENCE KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH FRI AM.
CONVERGENT LLVL RETURN FLOW TO FESTER SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH JUST MAYBE SOME HIGHER LVL
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. STILL THOUGH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION WED AND THU...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THU. LIGHT EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN SUBTLE CONVERGENT REGIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...BUT DRYING SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THEN MAKES THIS
OCCURRENCE LESS PROBABLE. LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX TO MIGRATE EASTWARD BY WEEKS END AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
PRESSES OUT/FLATTENS AS IT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE ONSLAUGHT/CENTRAL CANADIAN PHASING. STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW SIGNALS FOR FRI WITH ADEQUATE MIXING IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH A RETURN TO THE 80S POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT
CURRENTLY SEE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR PRECIP TO FIRE ON IN THIS REGIME
ALTHOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO RETURN AS WELL. MAYBE JUST AN
ISOLATED AMBIENT AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
LOCAL AREA PROBABLY TO REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS FRESHLY
ENERGIZED WESTERLIES LIGHT UP THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACRS TO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT MONDAY...INTERESTING SIGNAL ON THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF OF SUGGESTING REMNANTS
OF ODILE TO GET DRAWN UP IN L/W PHASING PROCESS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SAT...WITH A POSSIBLY CLOSED CIRCULATION/CYCLONE
PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ACRS THE MID TO UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY. THE 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LLVL CIRCULATION TO
ROLL UP ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY SAT NIGHT...
EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN DEF ZONE TYPE FEATURE ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED UP ALONG WITH IT BOOSTING
PWAT/S TO UNSEASONABLE LEVELS AGAIN COULD MEAN 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFINITE TREND TO WATCH IN
UPCOMING SOLUTIONS/MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. WITH ANOTHER
FRESHLY ESTABLISHED L/W TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ACRS THE GRT
LKS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER COOL DUMP
DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY BY NEXT MON OR TUE.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
AT LEAST GROUND FOG AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 3 MILES. THIS FOG WILL
QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY









000
FXUS63 KDVN 160853
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WAS RESULTING IN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WAPSI
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AREAS WITH CALM WINDS. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND IS
KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS CWA-WIDE UNTIL 13Z. EARLY MORNING
LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE...WHICH RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 DEGREES AT THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE
SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A LIGHT WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE 850MB COOL POCKET IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOW 60S
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH
WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. AM EXPECTING A WIDER NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAN SUGGESTED BY CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE. THE FREEPORT AREA LOOKS TO BE THE COOL SPOT...AND MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.    RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO
OCCUPY MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GRT LKS WEST OF EAST
COAST L/W TROUGH DURING MIDWEEK. LARGE LLVL BACKDOOR TYPE ANTICYCLONE
PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS TO ENGULF THE GRT LKS
THROUGH THU...WITH DRY FETCH EAST TO NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND EVEN DEEPER INFLUENCE KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH FRI AM.
CONVERGENT LLVL RETURN FLOW TO FESTER SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH JUST MAYBE SOME HIGHER LVL
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. STILL THOUGH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION WED AND THU...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THU. LIGHT EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN SUBTLE CONVERGENT REGIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...BUT DRYING SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THEN MAKES THIS
OCCURRENCE LESS PROBABLE. LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX TO MIGRATE EASTWARD BY WEEKS END AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
PRESSES OUT/FLATTENS AS IT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE ONSLAUGHT/CENTRAL CANADIAN PHASING. STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW SIGNALS FOR FRI WITH ADEQUATE MIXING IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH A RETURN TO THE 80S POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT
CURRENTLY SEE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR PRECIP TO FIRE ON IN THIS REGIME
ALTHOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO RETURN AS WELL. MAYBE JUST AN
ISOLATED AMBIENT AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
LOCAL AREA PROBABLY TO REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS FRESHLY
ENERGIZED WESTERLIES LIGHT UP THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACRS TO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT MONDAY...INTERESTING SIGNAL ON THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF OF SUGGESTING REMNANTS
OF ODILE TO GET DRAWN UP IN L/W PHASING PROCESS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SAT...WITH A POSSIBLY CLOSED CIRCULATION/CYCLONE
PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ACRS THE MID TO UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY. THE 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LLVL CIRCULATION TO
ROLL UP ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY SAT NIGHT...
EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN DEF ZONE TYPE FEATURE ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED UP ALONG WITH IT BOOSTING
PWAT/S TO UNSEASONABLE LEVELS AGAIN COULD MEAN 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFINITE TREND TO WATCH IN
UPCOMING SOLUTIONS/MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. WITH ANOTHER
FRESHLY ESTABLISHED L/W TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ACRS THE GRT
LKS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER COOL DUMP
DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY BY NEXT MON OR TUE.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
AT LEAST GROUND FOG AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 3 MILES. THIS FOG WILL
QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY










000
FXUS63 KDVN 160450
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WINDS HAVE GONE NEARLY CALM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN OVER. WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS NARROWED TO LESS THAN 1 DEGREE
F...FOG IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON OBSERVATIONS OVER ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE
ON THE GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL AND CLOUDY SKIES FAVORS
CONTINUING EXPANSION OF THIS FOG...OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG WORDING OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINS A TAD OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WHERE AT THE CURRENT RATE...UPPER 30S LOOK PLAUSIBLE
WITH A FEW COLD VALLEYS POSSIBLY TOUCHING THE MID 30S.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT ARE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST AND CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH FAIR SKIES TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN NW UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. LOTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SW CONUS AND RELATED TO HURRICANE ODILE MAY
IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD. SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. THEN QUIET WEATHER WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID EVENING WITH NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH TO BECOME LIGHT NW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNRISE. LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND HAVE TRIMMED MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. MINS AROUND
40F TO LOWER 40S IN SE SECTIONS.  MINOR CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG IN
FAR WEST DUE TO NW WINDS THAT MAY BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS. MINS SHOULD BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LIMITED BL
MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORTS ANOTHER
BELOW NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING DELIGHTFUL LATE SUMMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MODERATE TO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ECMWF/GFS HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AS RIDGING ALOFT INTENSIFIES IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE TIMING...SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS QUITE WET AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST DECENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR. MODELS INSIST ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES MONDAY AND SURE
ENOUGH THE MODELS WANT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WOULD DELIVER COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS. WHILE CONFIDENCE A WEEK AWAY ISN`T TOO GREAT
IF CORRECT THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
AT LEAST GROUND FOG AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES AROUND 09Z...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 3 MILES AT ALL
BUT MLI AROUND SUNRISE. THIS FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 160450
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WINDS HAVE GONE NEARLY CALM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN OVER. WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS NARROWED TO LESS THAN 1 DEGREE
F...FOG IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON OBSERVATIONS OVER ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE
ON THE GROUND FROM YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL AND CLOUDY SKIES FAVORS
CONTINUING EXPANSION OF THIS FOG...OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG WORDING OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINS A TAD OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WHERE AT THE CURRENT RATE...UPPER 30S LOOK PLAUSIBLE
WITH A FEW COLD VALLEYS POSSIBLY TOUCHING THE MID 30S.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT ARE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST AND CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH FAIR SKIES TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN NW UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. LOTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SW CONUS AND RELATED TO HURRICANE ODILE MAY
IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD. SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. THEN QUIET WEATHER WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID EVENING WITH NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH TO BECOME LIGHT NW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNRISE. LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND HAVE TRIMMED MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. MINS AROUND
40F TO LOWER 40S IN SE SECTIONS.  MINOR CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG IN
FAR WEST DUE TO NW WINDS THAT MAY BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS. MINS SHOULD BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LIMITED BL
MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORTS ANOTHER
BELOW NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING DELIGHTFUL LATE SUMMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MODERATE TO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ECMWF/GFS HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AS RIDGING ALOFT INTENSIFIES IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE TIMING...SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS QUITE WET AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST DECENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR. MODELS INSIST ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES MONDAY AND SURE
ENOUGH THE MODELS WANT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WOULD DELIVER COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS. WHILE CONFIDENCE A WEEK AWAY ISN`T TOO GREAT
IF CORRECT THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS HAS BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY
AT LEAST GROUND FOG AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES AROUND 09Z...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 3 MILES AT ALL
BUT MLI AROUND SUNRISE. THIS FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 152315
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT ARE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST AND CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH FAIR SKIES TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN NW UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. LOTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SW CONUS AND RELATED TO HURRICANE ODILE MAY
IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD. SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. THEN QUIET WEATHER WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID EVENING WITH NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH TO BECOME LIGHT NW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNRISE. LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND HAVE TRIMMED MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. MINS AROUND
40F TO LOWER 40S IN SE SECTIONS.  MINOR CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG IN
FAR WEST DUE TO NW WINDS THAT MAY BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS. MINS SHOULD BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LIMITED BL
MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORTS ANOTHER
BELOW NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING DELIGHTFUL LATE SUMMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MODERATE TO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ECMWF/GFS HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AS RIDGING ALOFT INTENSIFIES IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE TIMING...SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS QUITE WET AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST DECENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR. MODELS INSIST ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES MONDAY AND SURE
ENOUGH THE MODELS WANT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WOULD DELIVER COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS. WHILE CONFIDENCE A WEEK AWAY ISN`T TOO GREAT
IF CORRECT THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AS NORTH WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN MIGRATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 152315
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT ARE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST AND CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH FAIR SKIES TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN NW UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. LOTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SW CONUS AND RELATED TO HURRICANE ODILE MAY
IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD. SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. THEN QUIET WEATHER WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID EVENING WITH NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH TO BECOME LIGHT NW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNRISE. LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND HAVE TRIMMED MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. MINS AROUND
40F TO LOWER 40S IN SE SECTIONS.  MINOR CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG IN
FAR WEST DUE TO NW WINDS THAT MAY BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS. MINS SHOULD BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LIMITED BL
MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORTS ANOTHER
BELOW NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING DELIGHTFUL LATE SUMMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MODERATE TO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ECMWF/GFS HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AS RIDGING ALOFT INTENSIFIES IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE TIMING...SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS QUITE WET AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST DECENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR. MODELS INSIST ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES MONDAY AND SURE
ENOUGH THE MODELS WANT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WOULD DELIVER COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS. WHILE CONFIDENCE A WEEK AWAY ISN`T TOO GREAT
IF CORRECT THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AS NORTH WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN MIGRATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 151946
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT ARE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST AND CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH FAIR SKIES TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN NW UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. LOTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SW CONUS AND RELATED TO HURRICANE ODILE MAY
IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD. SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. THEN QUIET WEATHER WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID EVENING WITH NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH TO BECOME LIGHT NW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNRISE. LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND HAVE TRIMMED MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. MINS AROUND
40F TO LOWER 40S IN SE SECTIONS.  MINOR CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG IN
FAR WEST DUE TO NW WINDS THAT MAY BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS. MINS SHOULD BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LIMITED BL
MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORTS ANOTHER
BELOW NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING DELIGHTFUL LATE SUMMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MODERATE TO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ECMWF/GFS HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AS RIDGING ALOFT INTENSIFIES IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE TIMING...SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS QUITE WET AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST DECENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR. MODELS INSIST ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES MONDAY AND SURE
ENOUGH THE MODELS WANT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WOULD DELIVER COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS. WHILE CONFIDENCE A WEEK AWAY ISN`T TOO GREAT
IF CORRECT THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF EPISODES OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
15/21Z WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS FROM
NW TO SE BETWEEN 15/21Z AND 16/02Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FAIR
SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 16/18Z WITH NW
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT NW TONIGHT AND
THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 151946
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT ARE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST AND CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH FAIR SKIES TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN NW UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN. LOTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SW CONUS AND RELATED TO HURRICANE ODILE MAY
IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD. SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR CUMULUS
AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. THEN QUIET WEATHER WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SKIES TO BECOME FAIR BY MID EVENING WITH NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH TO BECOME LIGHT NW LATE EVENING UNTIL SUNRISE. LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS TO SEE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND HAVE TRIMMED MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. MINS AROUND
40F TO LOWER 40S IN SE SECTIONS.  MINOR CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG IN
FAR WEST DUE TO NW WINDS THAT MAY BECOME LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK IN
FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS. MINS SHOULD BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH LIMITED BL
MIXING WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SUPPORTS ANOTHER
BELOW NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK THEN
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING DELIGHTFUL LATE SUMMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
70S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MODERATE TO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ECMWF/GFS HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AS RIDGING ALOFT INTENSIFIES IN
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S AND WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
SATURDAY. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE TIMING...SATURDAY
STILL LOOKS QUITE WET AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST DECENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALSO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AS TO WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR. MODELS INSIST ON A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUNDAY LOOKING DRY AND COOLER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES MONDAY AND SURE
ENOUGH THE MODELS WANT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WOULD DELIVER COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS. WHILE CONFIDENCE A WEEK AWAY ISN`T TOO GREAT
IF CORRECT THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF EPISODES OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
15/21Z WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS FROM
NW TO SE BETWEEN 15/21Z AND 16/02Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FAIR
SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 16/18Z WITH NW
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT NW TONIGHT AND
THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 151748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TODAY...STRONG WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE DAKOTAS CURRENTLY
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 100+KT UPPER JET MAX DRIVING LONG
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN FROM EASTERN SD TO
LOWER MI...AND LEAD VORT LOBE ACRS SE NEB WORKING ON INCREASING
LLVL THTA-E FEED TO PRODUCE ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS ACRS SW IA.
00Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING MCS
FORCING PRODUCED BY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON SOUTH FRINGE OF JET STREAK TO MOVE FROM
UPSTREAM AND ACRS THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY FROM 12Z-18Z BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OFF CURRENT UPPER
JET TO THE NORTH TO COMBINE WITH SECONDARY JET-LET DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACRS MN THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLET EFFECT. 25-30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY H85 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED THTA-E PLUME
UP INTO THESE PROCESSES FOR AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF A SHOWER AND
RAIN EVENT ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY...AND
EXPECT SOME MERGER WITH THE INCOMING SHOWER AND STORM CLUSTER WITH
SOUTHWARD SINKING RAIN BAND TO THE NORTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THERMODYNAMIC PROGS SUGGEST 200-400+ ELEVATED MUCAPES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH CONVERGENT THTA-E
FEED SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN
INCREASES TO THE NORTH...PASSING SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
PRECIP DELINEATER. BY THE TIME THE RAIN MOVES OFF TOP THE EAST BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OR LESS. BUT A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER SWATHS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLUSTER PASSING ACRS THE SAME AREA.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AFTER EXPECTED CLOUD CLEAR OFF IN QUICK IN-BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE BEHINDS PASSING VORT MAX. AN EARLIER CLEAR OUT THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 60S...BEFORE NORTH
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT COOL PUSH WELL UNDERWAY BY THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...PASSING UPPER TROF ALONG WITH IN-BUILDING SFC HIGH WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER CLEAR...COOL NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSIDE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A FEW LOCALIZED COOL
AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE MID 30S BY TUE MORNING. WITH FCST LOWS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF
RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL ADD A CLIMATE SECTION FOR
REFERENCE. WILL HOLD OFF IN GRID MENTION FOR NOW...BUT TONIGHT MAY BE
AN IDEAL VALLEY/LOW LYING FOG POTENTIAL. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER TONIGHT THAN THOSE LOW LYING AREAS...IF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH SFC WINDS DON/T DRY DOWN THE DPTS AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL
POINTING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

INITIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING ENERGY
TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY LINGERS. THE
GFS PHASES SOUTHWEST CONUS ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE EMF SOLUTION IS MORE DISJOINTED AND INDICATES WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...NO REASON TO VARY FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN PRECIS WINDOW. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN INCREASES...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF EPISODES OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 15/21Z WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 15/21Z AND 16/00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
FAIR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 16/18Z WITH
NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT NW TONIGHT
AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 151748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TODAY...STRONG WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE DAKOTAS CURRENTLY
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 100+KT UPPER JET MAX DRIVING LONG
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN FROM EASTERN SD TO
LOWER MI...AND LEAD VORT LOBE ACRS SE NEB WORKING ON INCREASING
LLVL THTA-E FEED TO PRODUCE ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS ACRS SW IA.
00Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING MCS
FORCING PRODUCED BY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON SOUTH FRINGE OF JET STREAK TO MOVE FROM
UPSTREAM AND ACRS THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY FROM 12Z-18Z BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OFF CURRENT UPPER
JET TO THE NORTH TO COMBINE WITH SECONDARY JET-LET DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACRS MN THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLET EFFECT. 25-30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY H85 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED THTA-E PLUME
UP INTO THESE PROCESSES FOR AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF A SHOWER AND
RAIN EVENT ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY...AND
EXPECT SOME MERGER WITH THE INCOMING SHOWER AND STORM CLUSTER WITH
SOUTHWARD SINKING RAIN BAND TO THE NORTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THERMODYNAMIC PROGS SUGGEST 200-400+ ELEVATED MUCAPES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH CONVERGENT THTA-E
FEED SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN
INCREASES TO THE NORTH...PASSING SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
PRECIP DELINEATER. BY THE TIME THE RAIN MOVES OFF TOP THE EAST BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OR LESS. BUT A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER SWATHS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLUSTER PASSING ACRS THE SAME AREA.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AFTER EXPECTED CLOUD CLEAR OFF IN QUICK IN-BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE BEHINDS PASSING VORT MAX. AN EARLIER CLEAR OUT THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 60S...BEFORE NORTH
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT COOL PUSH WELL UNDERWAY BY THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...PASSING UPPER TROF ALONG WITH IN-BUILDING SFC HIGH WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER CLEAR...COOL NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSIDE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A FEW LOCALIZED COOL
AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE MID 30S BY TUE MORNING. WITH FCST LOWS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF
RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL ADD A CLIMATE SECTION FOR
REFERENCE. WILL HOLD OFF IN GRID MENTION FOR NOW...BUT TONIGHT MAY BE
AN IDEAL VALLEY/LOW LYING FOG POTENTIAL. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER TONIGHT THAN THOSE LOW LYING AREAS...IF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH SFC WINDS DON/T DRY DOWN THE DPTS AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL
POINTING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

INITIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING ENERGY
TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY LINGERS. THE
GFS PHASES SOUTHWEST CONUS ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE EMF SOLUTION IS MORE DISJOINTED AND INDICATES WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...NO REASON TO VARY FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN PRECIS WINDOW. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN INCREASES...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF EPISODES OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 15/21Z WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TO CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 15/21Z AND 16/00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
FAIR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 16/18Z WITH
NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT NW TONIGHT
AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 151201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TODAY...STRONG WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE DAKOTAS CURRENTLY
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 100+KT UPPER JET MAX DRIVING LONG
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN FROM EASTERN SD TO
LOWER MI...AND LEAD VORT LOBE ACRS SE NEB WORKING ON INCREASING
LLVL THTA-E FEED TO PRODUCE ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS ACRS SW IA.
00Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING MCS
FORCING PRODUCED BY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON SOUTH FRINGE OF JET STREAK TO MOVE FROM
UPSTREAM AND ACRS THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY FROM 12Z-18Z BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OFF CURRENT UPPER
JET TO THE NORTH TO COMBINE WITH SECONDARY JET-LET DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACRS MN THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLET EFFECT. 25-30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY H85 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED THTA-E PLUME
UP INTO THESE PROCESSES FOR AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF A SHOWER AND
RAIN EVENT ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY...AND
EXPECT SOME MERGER WITH THE INCOMING SHOWER AND STORM CLUSTER WITH
SOUTHWARD SINKING RAIN BAND TO THE NORTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THERMODYNAMIC PROGS SUGGEST 200-400+ ELEVATED MUCAPES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH CONVERGENT THTA-E
FEED SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN
INCREASES TO THE NORTH...PASSING SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
PRECIP DELINEATER. BY THE TIME THE RAIN MOVES OFF TOP THE EAST BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OR LESS. BUT A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER SWATHS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLUSTER PASSING ACRS THE SAME AREA.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AFTER EXPECTED CLOUD CLEAR OFF IN QUICK IN-BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE BEHINDS PASSING VORT MAX. AN EARLIER CLEAR OUT THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 60S...BEFORE NORTH
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT COOL PUSH WELL UNDERWAY BY THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...PASSING UPPER TROF ALONG WITH IN-BUILDING SFC HIGH WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER CLEAR...COOL NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSIDE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A FEW LOCALIZED COOL
AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE MID 30S BY TUE MORNING. WITH FCST LOWS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF
RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL ADD A CLIMATE SECTION FOR
REFERENCE. WILL HOLD OFF IN GRID MENTION FOR NOW...BUT TONIGHT MAY BE
AN IDEAL VALLEY/LOW LYING FOG POTENTIAL. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER TONIGHT THAN THOSE LOW LYING AREAS...IF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH SFC WINDS DON/T DRY DOWN THE DPTS AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL
POINTING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

INITIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING ENERGY
TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY LINGERS. THE
GFS PHASES SOUTHWEST CONUS ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE EMF SOLUTION IS MORE DISJOINTED AND INDICATES WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...NO REASON TO VARY FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN PRECIS WINDOW. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN INCREASES...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEEP 15 2014

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE MORNING
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IMPACTING THE MLI AND BRL TAFS WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR AND IFR VSBYS IN DOWNPOURS. MOST CIGS TO
REMAIN AT MVFR HEIGHTS...WITH THE VFR MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF I80
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE AREA FROM NE-
TO-SW AND AN APPROACHING WAVE ALONG IT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL THAT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
ALLOWING NORTH WINDS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA AND INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CIGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS AND RAIN MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON/1-2 PM CDT/ AT MOST TAF SITES.
CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE NOT PLACED IT IN THE TAFS JUST YET...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS.    ..12...

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...12








000
FXUS63 KDVN 151201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TODAY...STRONG WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE DAKOTAS CURRENTLY
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 100+KT UPPER JET MAX DRIVING LONG
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN FROM EASTERN SD TO
LOWER MI...AND LEAD VORT LOBE ACRS SE NEB WORKING ON INCREASING
LLVL THTA-E FEED TO PRODUCE ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS ACRS SW IA.
00Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING MCS
FORCING PRODUCED BY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON SOUTH FRINGE OF JET STREAK TO MOVE FROM
UPSTREAM AND ACRS THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY FROM 12Z-18Z BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OFF CURRENT UPPER
JET TO THE NORTH TO COMBINE WITH SECONDARY JET-LET DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACRS MN THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLET EFFECT. 25-30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY H85 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED THTA-E PLUME
UP INTO THESE PROCESSES FOR AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF A SHOWER AND
RAIN EVENT ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY...AND
EXPECT SOME MERGER WITH THE INCOMING SHOWER AND STORM CLUSTER WITH
SOUTHWARD SINKING RAIN BAND TO THE NORTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THERMODYNAMIC PROGS SUGGEST 200-400+ ELEVATED MUCAPES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH CONVERGENT THTA-E
FEED SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN
INCREASES TO THE NORTH...PASSING SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
PRECIP DELINEATER. BY THE TIME THE RAIN MOVES OFF TOP THE EAST BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OR LESS. BUT A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER SWATHS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLUSTER PASSING ACRS THE SAME AREA.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AFTER EXPECTED CLOUD CLEAR OFF IN QUICK IN-BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE BEHINDS PASSING VORT MAX. AN EARLIER CLEAR OUT THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 60S...BEFORE NORTH
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT COOL PUSH WELL UNDERWAY BY THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...PASSING UPPER TROF ALONG WITH IN-BUILDING SFC HIGH WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER CLEAR...COOL NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSIDE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A FEW LOCALIZED COOL
AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE MID 30S BY TUE MORNING. WITH FCST LOWS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF
RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL ADD A CLIMATE SECTION FOR
REFERENCE. WILL HOLD OFF IN GRID MENTION FOR NOW...BUT TONIGHT MAY BE
AN IDEAL VALLEY/LOW LYING FOG POTENTIAL. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER TONIGHT THAN THOSE LOW LYING AREAS...IF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH SFC WINDS DON/T DRY DOWN THE DPTS AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL
POINTING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

INITIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING ENERGY
TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY LINGERS. THE
GFS PHASES SOUTHWEST CONUS ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE EMF SOLUTION IS MORE DISJOINTED AND INDICATES WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...NO REASON TO VARY FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN PRECIS WINDOW. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN INCREASES...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEEP 15 2014

CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE MORNING
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IMPACTING THE MLI AND BRL TAFS WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MVFR AND IFR VSBYS IN DOWNPOURS. MOST CIGS TO
REMAIN AT MVFR HEIGHTS...WITH THE VFR MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF I80
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE AREA FROM NE-
TO-SW AND AN APPROACHING WAVE ALONG IT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...UNTIL THAT LOW PRESSURE PASSES
ALLOWING NORTH WINDS TO FLOW INTO THE AREA AND INCREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CIGS RISING TO VFR LEVELS AND RAIN MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON/1-2 PM CDT/ AT MOST TAF SITES.
CLEARING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE NOT PLACED IT IN THE TAFS JUST YET...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS.    ..12...

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 150850
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TODAY...STRONG WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE DAKOTAS CURRENTLY
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 100+KT UPPER JET MAX DRIVING LONG
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN FROM EASTERN SD TO
LOWER MI...AND LEAD VORT LOBE ACRS SE NEB WORKING ON INCREASING
LLVL THTA-E FEED TO PRODUCE ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS ACRS SW IA.
00Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING MCS
FORCING PRODUCED BY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON SOUTH FRINGE OF JET STREAK TO MOVE FROM
UPSTREAM AND ACRS THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY FROM 12Z-18Z BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OFF CURRENT UPPER
JET TO THE NORTH TO COMBINE WITH SECONDARY JET-LET DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACRS MN THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLET EFFECT. 25-30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY H85 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED THTA-E PLUME
UP INTO THESE PROCESSES FOR AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF A SHOWER AND
RAIN EVENT ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY...AND
EXPECT SOME MERGER WITH THE INCOMING SHOWER AND STORM CLUSTER WITH
SOUTHWARD SINKING RAIN BAND TO THE NORTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THERMODYNAMIC PROGS SUGGEST 200-400+ ELEVATED MUCAPES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH CONVERGENT THTA-E
FEED SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN
INCREASES TO THE NORTH...PASSING SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
PRECIP DELINEATER. BY THE TIME THE RAIN MOVES OFF TOP THE EAST BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OR LESS. BUT A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER SWATHS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLUSTER PASSING ACRS THE SAME AREA.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AFTER EXPECTED CLOUD CLEAR OFF IN QUICK IN-BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE BEHINDS PASSING VORT MAX. AN EARLIER CLEAR OUT THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 60S...BEFORE NORTH
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT COOL PUSH WELL UNDERWAY BY THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...PASSING UPPER TROF ALONG WITH IN-BUILDING SFC HIGH WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER CLEAR...COOL NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSIDE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A FEW LOCALIZED COOL
AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE MID 30S BY TUE MORNING. WITH FCST LOWS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF
RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL ADD A CLIMATE SECTION FOR
REFERENCE. WILL HOLD OFF IN GRID MENTION FOR NOW...BUT TONIGHT MAY BE
AN IDEAL VALLEY/LOW LYING FOG POTENTIAL. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER TONIGHT THAN THOSE LOW LYING AREAS...IF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH SFC WINDS DON/T DRY DOWN THE DPTS AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL
POINTING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

INITIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING ENERGY
TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY LINGERS. THE
GFS PHASES SOUTHWEST CONUS ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE DISJOINTED AND INDICATES WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...NO REASON TO VARY FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD OF THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN INCREASES...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THE ONSET OF RAIN
AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAS BEEN DELAYED A COUPLE HOURS IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS. THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BRL AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH LIFTING
CIGS...AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 150850
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TODAY...STRONG WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE DAKOTAS CURRENTLY
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 100+KT UPPER JET MAX DRIVING LONG
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN FROM EASTERN SD TO
LOWER MI...AND LEAD VORT LOBE ACRS SE NEB WORKING ON INCREASING
LLVL THTA-E FEED TO PRODUCE ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS ACRS SW IA.
00Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING MCS
FORCING PRODUCED BY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ON SOUTH FRINGE OF JET STREAK TO MOVE FROM
UPSTREAM AND ACRS THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY FROM 12Z-18Z BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OFF CURRENT UPPER
JET TO THE NORTH TO COMBINE WITH SECONDARY JET-LET DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACRS MN THIS MORNING FOR A COUPLET EFFECT. 25-30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY H85 MB JET TO CONTINUE TO FEED ELEVATED THTA-E PLUME
UP INTO THESE PROCESSES FOR AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF A SHOWER AND
RAIN EVENT ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY...AND
EXPECT SOME MERGER WITH THE INCOMING SHOWER AND STORM CLUSTER WITH
SOUTHWARD SINKING RAIN BAND TO THE NORTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THERMODYNAMIC PROGS SUGGEST 200-400+ ELEVATED MUCAPES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH CONVERGENT THTA-E
FEED SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE SHOWER CLUSTER MOVING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN
INCREASES TO THE NORTH...PASSING SFC LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
PRECIP DELINEATER. BY THE TIME THE RAIN MOVES OFF TOP THE EAST BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
OR LESS. BUT A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER SWATHS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLUSTER PASSING ACRS THE SAME AREA.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AFTER EXPECTED CLOUD CLEAR OFF IN QUICK IN-BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE BEHINDS PASSING VORT MAX. AN EARLIER CLEAR OUT THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 60S...BEFORE NORTH
WINDS INCREASE WITH THE NEXT COOL PUSH WELL UNDERWAY BY THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...PASSING UPPER TROF ALONG WITH IN-BUILDING SFC HIGH WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER CLEAR...COOL NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SUBSIDE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A FEW LOCALIZED COOL
AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO
THE MID 30S BY TUE MORNING. WITH FCST LOWS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF
RECORD LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL ADD A CLIMATE SECTION FOR
REFERENCE. WILL HOLD OFF IN GRID MENTION FOR NOW...BUT TONIGHT MAY BE
AN IDEAL VALLEY/LOW LYING FOG POTENTIAL. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
LATER TONIGHT THAN THOSE LOW LYING AREAS...IF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTH SFC WINDS DON/T DRY DOWN THE DPTS AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. WILL
PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXPECT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST. SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL
POINTING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

INITIAL RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING ENERGY
TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ON...MODEL INCONSISTENCY LINGERS. THE
GFS PHASES SOUTHWEST CONUS ENERGY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...
RESULTING IN A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE DISJOINTED AND INDICATES WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...NO REASON TO VARY FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD OF THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN INCREASES...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS A RESULT...THE ONSET OF RAIN
AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAS BEEN DELAYED A COUPLE HOURS IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS. THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BRL AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH LIFTING
CIGS...AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...12








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