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000
FXUS63 KDVN 290006
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
706 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BRING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER (1.6 INCHES) INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS NOTED IN NW IL WHERE PWATS ARE
LESS THAN AN INCH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SURGING
NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING INCREASE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER ALL OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAINLY PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
IN THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 290006
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
706 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BRING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER (1.6 INCHES) INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS NOTED IN NW IL WHERE PWATS ARE
LESS THAN AN INCH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SURGING
NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING INCREASE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER ALL OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAINLY PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
IN THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290006
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
706 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BRING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER (1.6 INCHES) INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS NOTED IN NW IL WHERE PWATS ARE
LESS THAN AN INCH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SURGING
NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING INCREASE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER ALL OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAINLY PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
IN THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290006
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
706 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BRING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER (1.6 INCHES) INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS NOTED IN NW IL WHERE PWATS ARE
LESS THAN AN INCH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SURGING
NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES ARE LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING INCREASE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER ALL OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAINLY PREVAILING VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
IN THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282155 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282155 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282154 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 313 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282154 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 313 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282013
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282013
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282013
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 282013
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. A WEAK LLJ RAN FROM TEXAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS THAT WAS
HELPING TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAS WEAK CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. RADAR HAS MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS
IOWA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN SHOWERS ACROSS MISSOURI.

18Z SFC DATA HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN IMPLIED
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
BE IN A DECAYING PHASE BY EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BETTER FORCING/SUPPORT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT
SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE BETTER SUPPORT EXITS THE AREA. THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT.

BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT INCREASES. THUS CONVECTION WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
FORECAST...ALONG WITH CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WE
WILL BE LACKING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM...WITH NO DEFINITE SHORT
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AT THE TIME OF THE FROPA. I AM
WORRIED THAT WITH AMPLE CAPE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL FORM SMALL
CLUSTERS AND EAT INTO THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES FARTHER SOUTH...AND
WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH...OTHER WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MAY TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO WISCONSIN. WE HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE...I AM ELECTING TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY...BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

EARLY SATURDAY...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS IN MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMFORTABLE AIR SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW CUT
OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIPPING SOUTHEAST...RETURN FLOW SHOULD
ESTABLISH ITSELF. MILDER AIR...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL JUNE HUMIDITY...WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 281748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A BAND OF CONVECTION IS RUNNING FROM NORTH OF KFNB TO KMHL IN
MISSOURI. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE BAND WITH MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAND.

IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL RUN INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND DECREASING FORCING THROUGH
MID DAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT BAND SHOULD SEE SOME DECAY TO IT AND
BEGIN ARRIVING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED PCPN CHCS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
BROUGHT THEM IN A BIT EARLIER AS LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF
HRRR CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST CWA
TOWARD MID PM THROUGH LATE PM... AND MAY BE LATCHING ONTO
MCV WHICH IS SUGGESTED IN REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. UPDATED GRIDS/
ZFP OUT SOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. ACTIVE CONVECTION /SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS/ FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AM
IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES.
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
SHUTTLE THESE DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15+ MPH AND CONTINUE TO
DRAW IN DRIER AIR THUS CHEWING AWAY OR ERODING ANY PCPN
INITIALLY THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM FAR SW CWA LATE PM AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY
ALONG WITH TRAJECTORY METHOD ALL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN RANGE
FROM 79-84 AND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY FINE LATE SPRING DAY.

TONIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850 MB
STILL USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH AND THUS LIMITING
MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER PCPN CHCS TO WESTERN CWA...
ALTHOUGH SMALL PCPN CHCS EXIST EASTERN CWA LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL WARM ADVECTION WING WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. LOWS
GENERALLY IN RANGE FROM 59 TO 64.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAYS FORECAST AND LAST NIGHTS FORECAST IS EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE SEE A QUITE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.  THE
LARGE...ILL DEFINED H5 WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LIKE THE
DAY SHIFT NOTED...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SHRTWV WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
BUILD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR...IN FACT
DEEP LAYER IS SHEAR IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL
BE DICTATED BY COLD POOLS AND BE MULTICELL OR SINGLE CELL IN NATURE.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THE FLOW...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGH PWATS.  WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
PWATS....LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY
EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDWEEK WE COULD SEE RETURN MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A BAND OF CONVECTION IS RUNNING FROM NORTH OF KFNB TO KMHL IN
MISSOURI. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE BAND WITH MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAND.

IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL RUN INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND DECREASING FORCING THROUGH
MID DAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT BAND SHOULD SEE SOME DECAY TO IT AND
BEGIN ARRIVING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED PCPN CHCS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
BROUGHT THEM IN A BIT EARLIER AS LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF
HRRR CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST CWA
TOWARD MID PM THROUGH LATE PM... AND MAY BE LATCHING ONTO
MCV WHICH IS SUGGESTED IN REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. UPDATED GRIDS/
ZFP OUT SOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. ACTIVE CONVECTION /SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS/ FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AM
IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES.
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
SHUTTLE THESE DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15+ MPH AND CONTINUE TO
DRAW IN DRIER AIR THUS CHEWING AWAY OR ERODING ANY PCPN
INITIALLY THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM FAR SW CWA LATE PM AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY
ALONG WITH TRAJECTORY METHOD ALL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN RANGE
FROM 79-84 AND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY FINE LATE SPRING DAY.

TONIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850 MB
STILL USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH AND THUS LIMITING
MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER PCPN CHCS TO WESTERN CWA...
ALTHOUGH SMALL PCPN CHCS EXIST EASTERN CWA LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL WARM ADVECTION WING WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. LOWS
GENERALLY IN RANGE FROM 59 TO 64.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAYS FORECAST AND LAST NIGHTS FORECAST IS EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE SEE A QUITE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.  THE
LARGE...ILL DEFINED H5 WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LIKE THE
DAY SHIFT NOTED...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SHRTWV WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
BUILD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR...IN FACT
DEEP LAYER IS SHEAR IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL
BE DICTATED BY COLD POOLS AND BE MULTICELL OR SINGLE CELL IN NATURE.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THE FLOW...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGH PWATS.  WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
PWATS....LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY
EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDWEEK WE COULD SEE RETURN MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/29 WITH HIGH AND THEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AFT 00Z/29 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. KCID/KDBQ HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A POTENTIAL TSRA FROM 06Z/29 THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 281522
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1022 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A BAND OF CONVECTION IS RUNNING FROM NORTH OF KFNB TO KMHL IN
MISSOURI. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE BAND WITH MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAND.

IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL RUN INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND DECREASING FORCING THROUGH
MID DAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT BAND SHOULD SEE SOME DECAY TO IT AND
BEGIN ARRIVING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED PCPN CHCS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
BROUGHT THEM IN A BIT EARLIER AS LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF
HRRR CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST CWA
TOWARD MID PM THROUGH LATE PM... AND MAY BE LATCHING ONTO
MCV WHICH IS SUGGESTED IN REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. UPDATED GRIDS/
ZFP OUT SOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. ACTIVE CONVECTION /SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS/ FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AM
IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES.
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
SHUTTLE THESE DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15+ MPH AND CONTINUE TO
DRAW IN DRIER AIR THUS CHEWING AWAY OR ERODING ANY PCPN
INITIALLY THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM FAR SW CWA LATE PM AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY
ALONG WITH TRAJECTORY METHOD ALL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN RANGE
FROM 79-84 AND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY FINE LATE SPRING DAY.

TONIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850 MB
STILL USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH AND THUS LIMITING
MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER PCPN CHCS TO WESTERN CWA...
ALTHOUGH SMALL PCPN CHCS EXIST EASTERN CWA LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL WARM ADVECTION WING WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. LOWS
GENERALLY IN RANGE FROM 59 TO 64.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAYS FORECAST AND LAST NIGHTS FORECAST IS EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE SEE A QUITE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.  THE
LARGE...ILL DEFINED H5 WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LIKE THE
DAY SHIFT NOTED...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SHRTWV WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
BUILD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR...IN FACT
DEEP LAYER IS SHEAR IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL
BE DICTATED BY COLD POOLS AND BE MULTICELL OR SINGLE CELL IN NATURE.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THE FLOW...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGH PWATS.  WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
PWATS....LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY
EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDWEEK WE COULD SEE RETURN MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM KS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID PM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN
EXPECT BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT TO FOCUS
MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE... ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE ON OCCASION THIS AFTN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281522
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1022 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

A BAND OF CONVECTION IS RUNNING FROM NORTH OF KFNB TO KMHL IN
MISSOURI. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE BAND WITH MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE BAND.

IF TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE CORRECT...THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL RUN INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND DECREASING FORCING THROUGH
MID DAY. AS SUCH THE CURRENT BAND SHOULD SEE SOME DECAY TO IT AND
BEGIN ARRIVING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED PCPN CHCS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
BROUGHT THEM IN A BIT EARLIER AS LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF
HRRR CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST CWA
TOWARD MID PM THROUGH LATE PM... AND MAY BE LATCHING ONTO
MCV WHICH IS SUGGESTED IN REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. UPDATED GRIDS/
ZFP OUT SOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. ACTIVE CONVECTION /SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS/ FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AM
IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES.
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
SHUTTLE THESE DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15+ MPH AND CONTINUE TO
DRAW IN DRIER AIR THUS CHEWING AWAY OR ERODING ANY PCPN
INITIALLY THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM FAR SW CWA LATE PM AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY
ALONG WITH TRAJECTORY METHOD ALL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN RANGE
FROM 79-84 AND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY FINE LATE SPRING DAY.

TONIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850 MB
STILL USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH AND THUS LIMITING
MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER PCPN CHCS TO WESTERN CWA...
ALTHOUGH SMALL PCPN CHCS EXIST EASTERN CWA LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL WARM ADVECTION WING WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. LOWS
GENERALLY IN RANGE FROM 59 TO 64.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAYS FORECAST AND LAST NIGHTS FORECAST IS EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE SEE A QUITE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.  THE
LARGE...ILL DEFINED H5 WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LIKE THE
DAY SHIFT NOTED...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SHRTWV WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
BUILD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR...IN FACT
DEEP LAYER IS SHEAR IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL
BE DICTATED BY COLD POOLS AND BE MULTICELL OR SINGLE CELL IN NATURE.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THE FLOW...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGH PWATS.  WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
PWATS....LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY
EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDWEEK WE COULD SEE RETURN MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM KS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID PM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN
EXPECT BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT TO FOCUS
MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE... ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE ON OCCASION THIS AFTN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 281154
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED PCPN CHCS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
BROUGHT THEM IN A BIT EARLIER AS LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF
HRRR CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST CWA
TOWARD MID PM THROUGH LATE PM... AND MAY BE LATCHING ONTO
MCV WHICH IS SUGGESTED IN REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. UPDATED GRIDS/
ZFP OUT SOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. ACTIVE CONVECTION /SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS/ FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AM
IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES.
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
SHUTTLE THESE DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15+ MPH AND CONTINUE TO
DRAW IN DRIER AIR THUS CHEWING AWAY OR ERODING ANY PCPN
INITIALLY THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM FAR SW CWA LATE PM AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY
ALONG WITH TRAJECTORY METHOD ALL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN RANGE
FROM 79-84 AND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY FINE LATE SPRING DAY.

TONIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850 MB
STILL USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH AND THUS LIMITING
MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER PCPN CHCS TO WESTERN CWA...
ALTHOUGH SMALL PCPN CHCS EXIST EASTERN CWA LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL WARM ADVECTION WING WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. LOWS
GENERALLY IN RANGE FROM 59 TO 64.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAYS FORECAST AND LAST NIGHTS FORECAST IS EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE SEE A QUITE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.  THE
LARGE...ILL DEFINED H5 WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LIKE THE
DAY SHIFT NOTED...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SHRTWV WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
BUILD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR...IN FACT
DEEP LAYER IS SHEAR IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL
BE DICTATED BY COLD POOLS AND BE MULTICELL OR SINGLE CELL IN NATURE.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THE FLOW...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGH PWATS.  WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
PWATS....LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY
EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDWEEK WE COULD SEE RETURN MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM KS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID PM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN
EXPECT BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT TO FOCUS
MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE... ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE ON OCCASION THIS AFTN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 281154
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED PCPN CHCS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
BROUGHT THEM IN A BIT EARLIER AS LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF
HRRR CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST CWA
TOWARD MID PM THROUGH LATE PM... AND MAY BE LATCHING ONTO
MCV WHICH IS SUGGESTED IN REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. UPDATED GRIDS/
ZFP OUT SOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. ACTIVE CONVECTION /SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS/ FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AM
IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES.
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
SHUTTLE THESE DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15+ MPH AND CONTINUE TO
DRAW IN DRIER AIR THUS CHEWING AWAY OR ERODING ANY PCPN
INITIALLY THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM FAR SW CWA LATE PM AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY
ALONG WITH TRAJECTORY METHOD ALL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN RANGE
FROM 79-84 AND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY FINE LATE SPRING DAY.

TONIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850 MB
STILL USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH AND THUS LIMITING
MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER PCPN CHCS TO WESTERN CWA...
ALTHOUGH SMALL PCPN CHCS EXIST EASTERN CWA LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL WARM ADVECTION WING WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. LOWS
GENERALLY IN RANGE FROM 59 TO 64.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAYS FORECAST AND LAST NIGHTS FORECAST IS EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE SEE A QUITE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.  THE
LARGE...ILL DEFINED H5 WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LIKE THE
DAY SHIFT NOTED...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SHRTWV WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
BUILD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR...IN FACT
DEEP LAYER IS SHEAR IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL
BE DICTATED BY COLD POOLS AND BE MULTICELL OR SINGLE CELL IN NATURE.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THE FLOW...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGH PWATS.  WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
PWATS....LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY
EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDWEEK WE COULD SEE RETURN MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A DISTURBANCE
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM KS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID PM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN
EXPECT BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT TO FOCUS
MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE... ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE ON OCCASION THIS AFTN. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 280828
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. ACTIVE CONVECTION /SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS/ FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AM
IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES.
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
SHUTTLE THESE DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15+ MPH AND CONTINUE TO
DRAW IN DRIER AIR THUS CHEWING AWAY OR ERODING ANY PCPN
INITIALLY THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM FAR SW CWA LATE PM AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY
ALONG WITH TRAJECTORY METHOD ALL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN RANGE
FROM 79-84 AND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY FINE LATE SPRING DAY.

TONIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850 MB
STILL USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH AND THUS LIMITING
MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER PCPN CHCS TO WESTERN CWA...
ALTHOUGH SMALL PCPN CHCS EXIST EASTERN CWA LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL WARM ADVECTION WING WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. LOWS
GENERALLY IN RANGE FROM 59 TO 64.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAYS FORECAST AND LAST NIGHTS FORECAST IS EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE SEE A QUITE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.  THE
LARGE...ILL DEFINED H5 WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LIKE THE
DAY SHIFT NOTED...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SHRTWV WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
BUILD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR...IN FACT
DEEP LAYER IS SHEAR IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL
BE DICTATED BY COLD POOLS AND BE MULTICELL OR SINGLE CELL IN NATURE.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THE FLOW...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGH PWATS.  WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
PWATS....LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY
EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDWEEK WE COULD SEE RETURN MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. VARIABLE BUT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. DID
INTRODUCE A VCSH AT KCID THURSDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING TO THE AREA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 06Z/29.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 280828
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL EARLY THIS AM BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VLY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. ACTIVE CONVECTION /SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS/ FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AM
IN VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND WITHIN PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AIDED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES.
OVER NEXT 24 HRS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL
SHUTTLE THESE DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE WHILE
SHIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15+ MPH AND CONTINUE TO
DRAW IN DRIER AIR THUS CHEWING AWAY OR ERODING ANY PCPN
INITIALLY THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM FAR SW CWA LATE PM AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE. OVERALL
JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION OF HIGHS FROM YSTDY
ALONG WITH TRAJECTORY METHOD ALL SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN RANGE
FROM 79-84 AND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY FINE LATE SPRING DAY.

TONIGHT... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPING RAIN CHANCES. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850 MB
STILL USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH AND THUS LIMITING
MOISTURE AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT BETTER PCPN CHCS TO WESTERN CWA...
ALTHOUGH SMALL PCPN CHCS EXIST EASTERN CWA LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL WARM ADVECTION WING WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL IA. LOWS
GENERALLY IN RANGE FROM 59 TO 64.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAYS FORECAST AND LAST NIGHTS FORECAST IS EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE SEE A QUITE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE DEEP MOISTURE.  THE
LARGE...ILL DEFINED H5 WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LIKE THE
DAY SHIFT NOTED...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SHRTWV WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  INSOLATION WILL HELP TO
BUILD A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY STRONG
UPDRAFTS.  WITH THE WEAK SHRTWV THERE IS A LACK OF SHEAR...IN FACT
DEEP LAYER IS SHEAR IS 20 KNOTS OR LESS.  CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL
BE DICTATED BY COLD POOLS AND BE MULTICELL OR SINGLE CELL IN NATURE.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT LAST LONG AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THE FLOW...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL LEAD TO HIGH PWATS.  WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
PWATS....LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY DAY AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY
EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.  MIDWEEK WE COULD SEE RETURN MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. VARIABLE BUT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. DID
INTRODUCE A VCSH AT KCID THURSDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING TO THE AREA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 06Z/29.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 280441
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

11 PM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND
SEEM ON TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AND EXCEPT FOR THIN CIRRUS IN OUR SOUTHERN
CWA SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE KEEPING THURSDAY DRY SO I HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN CWA. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEAR KTOP. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
WITH 50S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

FAVORED COOL AREAS TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN SPITE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. BY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A KIIB TO KGBG LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS STABLE FROM PRIOR
ISSUANCE...AS THE UPPER PATTERN FOCUSES ON ONE MAIN PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ANY THREAT FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM...A VEERING TO EASTERN IOWA IS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROPAGATION OF MATURE TO DISSIPATING STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF TO 3/4S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OVER ALL QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER 1/2 INCH...AND MAY BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WE ARE LACKING A SHORT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FIRE
OFF ANY LARGE INTENSE MCS. I FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH SEEM ON TARGET FOR THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND GOOD DIURNAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME LINGERING RAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IN THE
END...THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW AND A DRY DAY IS MOST LIKELY. COOL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THE HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH SOME
MODERATION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
LIKELY...AS WE CONTINUE TO TAP SOME LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THESE
OUTER PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. VARIABLE BUT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. DID
INTRODUCE A VCSH AT KCID THURSDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING TO THE AREA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 06Z/29.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 280441
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

11 PM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND
SEEM ON TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AND EXCEPT FOR THIN CIRRUS IN OUR SOUTHERN
CWA SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE KEEPING THURSDAY DRY SO I HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN CWA. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEAR KTOP. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
WITH 50S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

FAVORED COOL AREAS TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN SPITE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. BY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A KIIB TO KGBG LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS STABLE FROM PRIOR
ISSUANCE...AS THE UPPER PATTERN FOCUSES ON ONE MAIN PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ANY THREAT FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM...A VEERING TO EASTERN IOWA IS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROPAGATION OF MATURE TO DISSIPATING STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF TO 3/4S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OVER ALL QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER 1/2 INCH...AND MAY BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WE ARE LACKING A SHORT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FIRE
OFF ANY LARGE INTENSE MCS. I FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH SEEM ON TARGET FOR THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND GOOD DIURNAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME LINGERING RAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IN THE
END...THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW AND A DRY DAY IS MOST LIKELY. COOL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THE HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH SOME
MODERATION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
LIKELY...AS WE CONTINUE TO TAP SOME LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THESE
OUTER PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. VARIABLE BUT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. DID
INTRODUCE A VCSH AT KCID THURSDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING TO THE AREA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 06Z/29.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 272336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEAR KTOP. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
WITH 50S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

FAVORED COOL AREAS TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN SPITE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. BY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A KIIB TO KGBG LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS STABLE FROM PRIOR
ISSUANCE...AS THE UPPER PATTERN FOCUSES ON ONE MAIN PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ANY THREAT FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM...A VEERING TO EASTERN IOWA IS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROPAGATION OF MATURE TO DISSIPATING STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF TO 3/4S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OVER ALL QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER 1/2 INCH...AND MAY BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WE ARE LACKING A SHORT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FIRE
OFF ANY LARGE INTENSE MCS. I FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH SEEM ON TARGET FOR THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND GOOD DIURNAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME LINGERING RAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IN THE
END...THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW AND A DRY DAY IS MOST LIKELY. COOL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THE HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH SOME
MODERATION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
LIKELY...AS WE CONTINUE TO TAP SOME LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THESE
OUTER PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. VARIABLE BUT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 272336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEAR KTOP. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
WITH 50S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

FAVORED COOL AREAS TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN SPITE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. BY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A KIIB TO KGBG LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS STABLE FROM PRIOR
ISSUANCE...AS THE UPPER PATTERN FOCUSES ON ONE MAIN PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ANY THREAT FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM...A VEERING TO EASTERN IOWA IS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROPAGATION OF MATURE TO DISSIPATING STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF TO 3/4S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OVER ALL QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER 1/2 INCH...AND MAY BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WE ARE LACKING A SHORT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FIRE
OFF ANY LARGE INTENSE MCS. I FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH SEEM ON TARGET FOR THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND GOOD DIURNAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME LINGERING RAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IN THE
END...THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW AND A DRY DAY IS MOST LIKELY. COOL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THE HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH SOME
MODERATION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
LIKELY...AS WE CONTINUE TO TAP SOME LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THESE
OUTER PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. VARIABLE BUT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 272336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEAR KTOP. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
WITH 50S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

FAVORED COOL AREAS TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN SPITE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. BY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A KIIB TO KGBG LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS STABLE FROM PRIOR
ISSUANCE...AS THE UPPER PATTERN FOCUSES ON ONE MAIN PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ANY THREAT FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM...A VEERING TO EASTERN IOWA IS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROPAGATION OF MATURE TO DISSIPATING STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF TO 3/4S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OVER ALL QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER 1/2 INCH...AND MAY BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WE ARE LACKING A SHORT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FIRE
OFF ANY LARGE INTENSE MCS. I FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH SEEM ON TARGET FOR THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND GOOD DIURNAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME LINGERING RAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IN THE
END...THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW AND A DRY DAY IS MOST LIKELY. COOL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THE HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH SOME
MODERATION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
LIKELY...AS WE CONTINUE TO TAP SOME LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THESE
OUTER PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. VARIABLE BUT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 272336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEAR KTOP. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
WITH 50S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

FAVORED COOL AREAS TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN SPITE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. BY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A KIIB TO KGBG LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS STABLE FROM PRIOR
ISSUANCE...AS THE UPPER PATTERN FOCUSES ON ONE MAIN PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ANY THREAT FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM...A VEERING TO EASTERN IOWA IS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROPAGATION OF MATURE TO DISSIPATING STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF TO 3/4S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OVER ALL QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER 1/2 INCH...AND MAY BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WE ARE LACKING A SHORT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FIRE
OFF ANY LARGE INTENSE MCS. I FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH SEEM ON TARGET FOR THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND GOOD DIURNAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME LINGERING RAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IN THE
END...THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW AND A DRY DAY IS MOST LIKELY. COOL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THE HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH SOME
MODERATION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
LIKELY...AS WE CONTINUE TO TAP SOME LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THESE
OUTER PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. VARIABLE BUT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THEN SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 271947
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO NEAR KTOP. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. SATELLITE TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM WISCONSIN INTO
IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM MISSOURI INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
WITH 50S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

FAVORED COOL AREAS TONIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN SPITE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. BY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS A KIIB TO KGBG LINE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS STABLE FROM PRIOR
ISSUANCE...AS THE UPPER PATTERN FOCUSES ON ONE MAIN PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH ANY THREAT FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND BY
MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM...A VEERING TO EASTERN IOWA IS FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROPAGATION OF MATURE TO DISSIPATING STORMS INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF TO 3/4S OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OVER ALL QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER 1/2 INCH...AND MAY BE LIGHTER GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WE ARE LACKING A SHORT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FIRE
OFF ANY LARGE INTENSE MCS. I FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH SEEM ON TARGET FOR THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND GOOD DIURNAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME LINGERING RAINS IN
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT IN THE
END...THAT MAY BE TOO SLOW AND A DRY DAY IS MOST LIKELY. COOL AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...THE HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH SOME
MODERATION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE
LIKELY...AS WE CONTINUE TO TAP SOME LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECTED AIR.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THESE
OUTER PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/28 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 271721
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL IA ATTIM WITH VORT MAX ROUGHLY NEAR MARSHALLTOWN IA
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL
NORTH OF HWY 30. ALSO... A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MACOMB IL ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE... ALTHOUGH
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN FAR NORTHEAST IL WITH VORT MAX PASSING
BY AROUND 13Z. WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ATTIM
ALTHOUGH LOSING ITS PUSH WITH POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES DECAYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL 7-8 AM OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE
VORT MAX DEPARTS. THEN... WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL PASS THIS AM FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTN WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.
TEMPS SEASONAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 COMBINED WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE FOR A REAL NICE AFTN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF WINDS STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THEN POTENTIAL TO BE
NEAR COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES IN THE MID 50S.
BANKING ON ENOUGH OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT TO SIDE NEAR BLEND
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THE END OF THIS WEEK.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN STORE.  THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY.
THIS BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

H5 RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM.  SW FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL
HELP TO USHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.  MODELS SUGGESTS SOME SCHC OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIRES WRF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER
BELIEVE THAT THE H5 RIDGING WILL HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  AFTER 00Z THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA AND LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVERNIGHT.  ONCE AGAIN HIGH PWATS
RETURN TO THE AREA.  CAPE EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.  H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS THAT NW ZONES
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR POPS INCREASES ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
GFS GOING EVEN HIGHER.  THINK THE GFS IS WELL OVERDONE WITH THE
INSTABILITY.  REGARDLESS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT.  DO THINK THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND REPORT.   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SINGLE CELL...SOME POSSIBLE
MULTICELL STORMS COULD OCCUR...THESE WILL LIKELY BE COLD POOL
DOMINATED.  SPC HAS US IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR WINDS AND HAIL.
THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OUR MAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY.  H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE.  PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
SO...WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHILLY AIR MOVES IN.  1000-500
THICKNESS IS NEAR 540 ACROSS THE UP.  NEEDLESS TO SAY HEATERS MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM.  AFTER THIS...THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL
AND WE WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/28 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 271721
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL IA ATTIM WITH VORT MAX ROUGHLY NEAR MARSHALLTOWN IA
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL
NORTH OF HWY 30. ALSO... A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MACOMB IL ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE... ALTHOUGH
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN FAR NORTHEAST IL WITH VORT MAX PASSING
BY AROUND 13Z. WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ATTIM
ALTHOUGH LOSING ITS PUSH WITH POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES DECAYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL 7-8 AM OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE
VORT MAX DEPARTS. THEN... WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL PASS THIS AM FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTN WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.
TEMPS SEASONAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 COMBINED WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE FOR A REAL NICE AFTN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF WINDS STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THEN POTENTIAL TO BE
NEAR COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES IN THE MID 50S.
BANKING ON ENOUGH OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT TO SIDE NEAR BLEND
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THE END OF THIS WEEK.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN STORE.  THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY.
THIS BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

H5 RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM.  SW FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL
HELP TO USHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.  MODELS SUGGESTS SOME SCHC OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIRES WRF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER
BELIEVE THAT THE H5 RIDGING WILL HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  AFTER 00Z THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA AND LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVERNIGHT.  ONCE AGAIN HIGH PWATS
RETURN TO THE AREA.  CAPE EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.  H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS THAT NW ZONES
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR POPS INCREASES ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
GFS GOING EVEN HIGHER.  THINK THE GFS IS WELL OVERDONE WITH THE
INSTABILITY.  REGARDLESS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT.  DO THINK THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND REPORT.   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SINGLE CELL...SOME POSSIBLE
MULTICELL STORMS COULD OCCUR...THESE WILL LIKELY BE COLD POOL
DOMINATED.  SPC HAS US IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR WINDS AND HAIL.
THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OUR MAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY.  H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE.  PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
SO...WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHILLY AIR MOVES IN.  1000-500
THICKNESS IS NEAR 540 ACROSS THE UP.  NEEDLESS TO SAY HEATERS MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM.  AFTER THIS...THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL
AND WE WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 18Z/28 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 271151
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL IA ATTIM WITH VORT MAX ROUGHLY NEAR MARSHALLTOWN IA
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL
NORTH OF HWY 30. ALSO... A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MACOMB IL ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE... ALTHOUGH
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN FAR NORTHEAST IL WITH VORT MAX PASSING
BY AROUND 13Z. WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ATTIM
ALTHOUGH LOSING ITS PUSH WITH POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES DECAYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL 7-8 AM OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE
VORT MAX DEPARTS. THEN... WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL PASS THIS AM FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTN WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.
TEMPS SEASONAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 COMBINED WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE FOR A REAL NICE AFTN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF WINDS STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THEN POTENTIAL TO BE
NEAR COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES IN THE MID 50S.
BANKING ON ENOUGH OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT TO SIDE NEAR BLEND
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THE END OF THIS WEEK.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN STORE.  THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY.
THIS BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

H5 RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM.  SW FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL
HELP TO USHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.  MODELS SUGGESTS SOME SCHC OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIRES WRF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER
BELIEVE THAT THE H5 RIDGING WILL HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  AFTER 00Z THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA AND LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVERNIGHT.  ONCE AGAIN HIGH PWATS
RETURN TO THE AREA.  CAPE EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.  H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS THAT NW ZONES
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR POPS INCREASES ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
GFS GOING EVEN HIGHER.  THINK THE GFS IS WELL OVERDONE WITH THE
INSTABILITY.  REGARDLESS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT.  DO THINK THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND REPORT.   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SINGLE CELL...SOME POSSIBLE
MULTICELL STORMS COULD OCCUR...THESE WILL LIKELY BE COLD POOL
DOMINATED.  SPC HAS US IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR WINDS AND HAIL.
THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OUR MAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY.  H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE.  PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
SO...WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHILLY AIR MOVES IN.  1000-500
THICKNESS IS NEAR 540 ACROSS THE UP.  NEEDLESS TO SAY HEATERS MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM.  AFTER THIS...THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL
AND WE WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCT-BKN STRATOCU WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND
THIS MORNING IN MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT. BY AFTERNOON
ANY RESIDUAL CIGS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY AT 5-15
KTS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING BEFORE TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 271151
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL IA ATTIM WITH VORT MAX ROUGHLY NEAR MARSHALLTOWN IA
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL
NORTH OF HWY 30. ALSO... A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MACOMB IL ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE... ALTHOUGH
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN FAR NORTHEAST IL WITH VORT MAX PASSING
BY AROUND 13Z. WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ATTIM
ALTHOUGH LOSING ITS PUSH WITH POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES DECAYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL 7-8 AM OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE
VORT MAX DEPARTS. THEN... WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL PASS THIS AM FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTN WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.
TEMPS SEASONAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 COMBINED WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE FOR A REAL NICE AFTN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF WINDS STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THEN POTENTIAL TO BE
NEAR COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES IN THE MID 50S.
BANKING ON ENOUGH OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT TO SIDE NEAR BLEND
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THE END OF THIS WEEK.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN STORE.  THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY.
THIS BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

H5 RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM.  SW FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL
HELP TO USHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.  MODELS SUGGESTS SOME SCHC OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIRES WRF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER
BELIEVE THAT THE H5 RIDGING WILL HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  AFTER 00Z THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA AND LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVERNIGHT.  ONCE AGAIN HIGH PWATS
RETURN TO THE AREA.  CAPE EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.  H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS THAT NW ZONES
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR POPS INCREASES ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
GFS GOING EVEN HIGHER.  THINK THE GFS IS WELL OVERDONE WITH THE
INSTABILITY.  REGARDLESS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT.  DO THINK THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND REPORT.   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SINGLE CELL...SOME POSSIBLE
MULTICELL STORMS COULD OCCUR...THESE WILL LIKELY BE COLD POOL
DOMINATED.  SPC HAS US IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR WINDS AND HAIL.
THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OUR MAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY.  H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE.  PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
SO...WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHILLY AIR MOVES IN.  1000-500
THICKNESS IS NEAR 540 ACROSS THE UP.  NEEDLESS TO SAY HEATERS MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM.  AFTER THIS...THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL
AND WE WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCT-BKN STRATOCU WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND
THIS MORNING IN MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT. BY AFTERNOON
ANY RESIDUAL CIGS EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY AT 5-15
KTS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING BEFORE TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 270804
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL IA ATTIM WITH VORT MAX ROUGHLY NEAR MARSHALLTOWN IA
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL
NORTH OF HWY 30. ALSO... A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MACOMB IL ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE... ALTHOUGH
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN FAR NORTHEAST IL WITH VORT MAX PASSING
BY AROUND 13Z. WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ATTIM
ALTHOUGH LOSING ITS PUSH WITH POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES DECAYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL 7-8 AM OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE
VORT MAX DEPARTS. THEN... WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL PASS THIS AM FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTN WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.
TEMPS SEASONAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 COMBINED WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE FOR A REAL NICE AFTN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF WINDS STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THEN POTENTIAL TO BE
NEAR COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES IN THE MID 50S.
BANKING ON ENOUGH OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT TO SIDE NEAR BLEND
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THE END OF THIS WEEK.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN STORE.  THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY.
THIS BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

H5 RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM.  SW FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL
HELP TO USHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.  MODELS SUGGESTS SOME SCHC OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIRES WRF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER
BELIEVE THAT THE H5 RIDGING WILL HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  AFTER 00Z THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA AND LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVERNIGHT.  ONCE AGAIN HIGH PWATS
RETURN TO THE AREA.  CAPE EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.  H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS THAT NW ZONES
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR POPS INCREASES ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
GFS GOING EVEN HIGHER.  THINK THE GFS IS WELL OVERDONE WITH THE
INSTABILITY.  REGARDLESS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT.  DO THINK THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND REPORT.   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SINGLE CELL...SOME POSSIBLE
MULTICELL STORMS COULD OCCUR...THESE WILL LIKELY BE COLD POOL
DOMINATED.  SPC HAS US IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR WINDS AND HAIL.
THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OUR MAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY.  H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE.  PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
SO...WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHILLY AIR MOVES IN.  1000-500
THICKNESS IS NEAR 540 ACROSS THE UP.  NEEDLESS TO SAY HEATERS MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM.  AFTER THIS...THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL
AND WE WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270804
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL IA ATTIM WITH VORT MAX ROUGHLY NEAR MARSHALLTOWN IA
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL
NORTH OF HWY 30. ALSO... A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR MACOMB IL ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL MO. MOST IF NOT ALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE... ALTHOUGH
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN FAR NORTHEAST IL WITH VORT MAX PASSING
BY AROUND 13Z. WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA ATTIM
ALTHOUGH LOSING ITS PUSH WITH POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES DECAYING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL 7-8 AM OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE
VORT MAX DEPARTS. THEN... WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL PASS THIS AM FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTN WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN.
TEMPS SEASONAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 COMBINED WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD MAKE FOR A REAL NICE AFTN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
MIN TEMP FORECAST. IF WINDS STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THEN POTENTIAL TO BE
NEAR COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES IN THE MID 50S.
BANKING ON ENOUGH OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT TO SIDE NEAR BLEND
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THE END OF THIS WEEK.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN STORE.  THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY.
THIS BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

H5 RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM.  SW FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL
HELP TO USHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.  MODELS SUGGESTS SOME SCHC OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIRES WRF HAS SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER
BELIEVE THAT THE H5 RIDGING WILL HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 00Z.  AFTER 00Z THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA AND LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER OVERNIGHT.  ONCE AGAIN HIGH PWATS
RETURN TO THE AREA.  CAPE EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.  H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTS THAT NW ZONES
OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THE CHANCE FOR POPS INCREASES ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
INSOLATION SHOULD LEAD TO CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
GFS GOING EVEN HIGHER.  THINK THE GFS IS WELL OVERDONE WITH THE
INSTABILITY.  REGARDLESS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT.  DO THINK THAT STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND REPORT.   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SINGLE CELL...SOME POSSIBLE
MULTICELL STORMS COULD OCCUR...THESE WILL LIKELY BE COLD POOL
DOMINATED.  SPC HAS US IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FOR WINDS AND HAIL.
THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE OUR MAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY.  H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE.  PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR
SO...WHICH IS WELL INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHILLY AIR MOVES IN.  1000-500
THICKNESS IS NEAR 540 ACROSS THE UP.  NEEDLESS TO SAY HEATERS MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM.  AFTER THIS...THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL
AND WE WARM TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 270450
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA LATE THIS EVENING...IN
THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER MUCAPES/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE STILL DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MS
RIVER AS A STRONG VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS WAS PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IA. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE VORT MAX PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA TOWARDS
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE RIDGING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES IS ONLY 500-1000 J/KG.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG WINDS WE HAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE DIMINISHED. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA AND EXITS TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 270450
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA LATE THIS EVENING...IN
THE AXIS OF THE HIGHER MUCAPES/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE STILL DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MS
RIVER AS A STRONG VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS WAS PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IA. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE VORT MAX PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA TOWARDS
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY AS SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE RIDGING ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES IS ONLY 500-1000 J/KG.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG WINDS WE HAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE DIMINISHED. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA AND EXITS TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270009
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES IS ONLY 500-1000 J/KG.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG WINDS WE HAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE DIMINISHED. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA AND EXITS TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270009
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES IS ONLY 500-1000 J/KG.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG WINDS WE HAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE DIMINISHED. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA AND EXITS TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 270009
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES IS ONLY 500-1000 J/KG.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG WINDS WE HAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE DIMINISHED. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA AND EXITS TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 270009
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND SBCAPES IS ONLY 500-1000 J/KG.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONG WINDS WE HAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE DIMINISHED. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA AND EXITS TO OUR EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VIS BR
09-16Z/27. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 262014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WOUND UP SFC LOW WAS ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF DBQ
ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW SCTRD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ROLLING ACRS THE
AREA. WILL WALK THOSE OUT THROUGH 2 PM...BUT WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEB PUSHING EASTWARD...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
UPTICK IN ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT AND COVERAGE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR DECKS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. SOUTH OR VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
SOME CHC OF WRAP AROUND MVFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. IF WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT...SOME
3-6SM FOG POSSIBLE IN RECENT RAINFALL AREAS. CLEARING CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS BY MID WED MORNING.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 262014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN LOW CENTER STILL
DEEPENING MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE CWA INTO SW WI. OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARCHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN INTO EAST
CENTRAL IL. SECONDARY LOW PIVOTING ACRS SOUTHWESTERN IA...WITH
SOME LEE SIDE LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER REGION. ALOFT...LOOKING AT CURRENT WATER VAPOR
LOOP VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVERHEAD LOOKING TO MAKE
HEADWAY NORTHEAST INTO WI...WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX JUST A BIT
WEAKER NOTED ACRS EASTERN NEB LOOKING TO ALMOST FUJI-WARA IT/S WAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING MAX AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACRS IA THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG LLVL AS WELL AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING THAT PRODUCED
SEVERAL ROTATING LOW-TOPPED CELLS...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ACRS LK MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS HAS ALLOWED FOR SFC
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MARGINAL SBCAPES
THAT MAY FUEL SOME EVENING SCTRD/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
THE WAVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEB PUSHES THIS WAY.
AGAIN...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR PLUME OFF TO THE EAST AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHOWER/STORM COMPLEX...A LOW CHC FOR ANY SVR STORMS TO
FORM. MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE VORT MAX WILL STILL BE PUSHING OVERHEAD...EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DECREASE AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL PROCESSES SETTLING IN.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF THE AREA TO BECOME OR STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS WRAP AROUND STRATOCU NOW ACRS NW/NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
GET DRAGGED ACRS BY THE APPROACHING NEB VORT MAX. LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER
MAINTAINS...AREAS THAT CLEAR LONGER COULD GET COOLER AS WELL AS
HAVE SOME SPOTTY FOG IF SFC WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH OVER RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...L/W UPPER TROF COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SLIDE OVER AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME MAKING FOR A
DRIER AND GENERALLY NICE DAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ENOUGH LATE MAY INSOLATION AND MIXING TO MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL KEEP THE FCST MAINLY DRY...BUT COOL
CORE ALOFT UNDER MID TROF AXIS AS WELL AS LINGERING VORT MAX MAY
TRY TO KICK UP ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS IN EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...OR JUST OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACRS WI
INTO NE IL.   ..12..


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TRENDING DRIER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A WET PERIOD STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR
LIKELY...WITH MOST RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA.  THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...AND IT SHOULD FEEL PLEASANT FOR EARLY SUMMER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS SPREADING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN EARNEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LLJ DRAWING UP
LOTS OF MOISTURE INTO IOWA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
THAT SHOULD BE THE LOCATION FOR INITIATION OF STORMS...AND ANY
STORMS ENTERING OUR CWA WILL BE OCCURRING ON AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL
THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS IT SHOULD BE AS LATE ARRIVAL.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK...AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INDICATED
BY MODEL PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.
DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM IN DOUBT...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. IN ANY CASE...THIS LOOKS TO BE A RAIN
EVENT...AND LIKE THIS PAST EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NOW APPEAR DRY...AND I HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE
POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND
PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DRY PATTERN FOR A STRETCH OF AT LEAST
4 DAYS APPEARS WELCOME GIVEN OUR INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WOUND UP SFC LOW WAS ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF DBQ
ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW SCTRD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ROLLING ACRS THE
AREA. WILL WALK THOSE OUT THROUGH 2 PM...BUT WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEB PUSHING EASTWARD...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
UPTICK IN ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT AND COVERAGE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR DECKS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. SOUTH OR VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
SOME CHC OF WRAP AROUND MVFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. IF WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT...SOME
3-6SM FOG POSSIBLE IN RECENT RAINFALL AREAS. CLEARING CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS BY MID WED MORNING.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 261747
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS ARE PERCULATING OVER NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AM IN WAKE
OF PASSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE MERGING WITH REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING EAST FROM NE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VORTICITY ADVECTION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING MESO-LOW ALONG WITH
SURGE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES WILL ALL RESULT IN FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN TAPERING
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED THIS AM
WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE MESO-LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN... WITH THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY
POCKETS OF RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES) BEING OVER THE WESTERN CWA...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IOW-
DBQ WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE FROM
APPROACHING MES0-LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING ISSUES BEING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING AND PROLONGED BOUTS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE
OF PCPN WILL MIGRATE NORTH OF I-80 AS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-35 KTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. AS
FOR HIGHS TODAY... AS THE CLOUDS/PCPN GO... SO GO THE TEMPS AND
THEREFORE A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH BUST POTENTIAL. HAVE NUDGED
DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RAIN
AND LINGERING CLOUDS AND HAVE AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S THERE WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT... ANTICIPATE GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN TIME AS WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (MID/UPPER 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHEAST (LOWER 60S) UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE
THE CHANCES FOR POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN THE
CHANCE FOR POPS THIS WEEKEND.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH CHCS OF POPS
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
THIS OCCURS BECAUSE ANOTHER TROF IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.  THIS
GIVES US ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF H5 RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT TROF TURNS
THE FLOW TO THE SW ON THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND PLEASANT.

THURSDAY THE FLOW TURNS SSW ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD USHER
MOISTURE AND SHRTWVS INTO THE AREA AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SPECTRAL MODELS WITH LARGER
GRID SPACING SEEM TO BE OVERDOING IT WITH COVERAGE OF THE POPS.
THEY HAVE DONE IT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM SOUTH OF HERE OR ISSUES WITH PARAMETRIZATION
SCHEMES.  REGARDLESS...THEY DEPICT DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST AS FAR AS COVERAGE OF POPS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z.  AFTER 00Z FRIDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT NW ZONES THE MOST FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD AFFECT A FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THOSE DIFFERENCES WOULD
LIKELY AFFECT MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THE OVERALL TROF IS SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...LEADING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WOUND UP SFC LOW WAS ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF DBQ
ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW SCTRD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ROLLING ACRS THE
AREA. WILL WALK THOSE OUT THROUGH 2 PM...BUT WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEB PUSHING EASTWARD...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
UPTICK IN ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT AND COVERAGE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR DECKS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. SOUTH OR VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
SOME CHC OF WRAP AROUND MVFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. IF WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT...SOME
3-6SM FOG POSSIBLE IN RECENT RAINFALL AREAS. CLEARING CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS BY MID WED MORNING.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 261747
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS ARE PERCULATING OVER NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AM IN WAKE
OF PASSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE MERGING WITH REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING EAST FROM NE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VORTICITY ADVECTION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING MESO-LOW ALONG WITH
SURGE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES WILL ALL RESULT IN FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN TAPERING
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED THIS AM
WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE MESO-LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN... WITH THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY
POCKETS OF RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES) BEING OVER THE WESTERN CWA...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IOW-
DBQ WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE FROM
APPROACHING MES0-LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING ISSUES BEING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING AND PROLONGED BOUTS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE
OF PCPN WILL MIGRATE NORTH OF I-80 AS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-35 KTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. AS
FOR HIGHS TODAY... AS THE CLOUDS/PCPN GO... SO GO THE TEMPS AND
THEREFORE A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH BUST POTENTIAL. HAVE NUDGED
DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RAIN
AND LINGERING CLOUDS AND HAVE AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S THERE WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT... ANTICIPATE GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN TIME AS WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (MID/UPPER 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHEAST (LOWER 60S) UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE
THE CHANCES FOR POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN THE
CHANCE FOR POPS THIS WEEKEND.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH CHCS OF POPS
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
THIS OCCURS BECAUSE ANOTHER TROF IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.  THIS
GIVES US ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF H5 RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT TROF TURNS
THE FLOW TO THE SW ON THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND PLEASANT.

THURSDAY THE FLOW TURNS SSW ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD USHER
MOISTURE AND SHRTWVS INTO THE AREA AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SPECTRAL MODELS WITH LARGER
GRID SPACING SEEM TO BE OVERDOING IT WITH COVERAGE OF THE POPS.
THEY HAVE DONE IT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM SOUTH OF HERE OR ISSUES WITH PARAMETRIZATION
SCHEMES.  REGARDLESS...THEY DEPICT DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST AS FAR AS COVERAGE OF POPS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z.  AFTER 00Z FRIDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT NW ZONES THE MOST FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD AFFECT A FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THOSE DIFFERENCES WOULD
LIKELY AFFECT MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THE OVERALL TROF IS SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...LEADING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WOUND UP SFC LOW WAS ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF DBQ
ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW SCTRD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ROLLING ACRS THE
AREA. WILL WALK THOSE OUT THROUGH 2 PM...BUT WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEB PUSHING EASTWARD...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
UPTICK IN ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT AND COVERAGE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR DECKS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. SOUTH OR VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
SOME CHC OF WRAP AROUND MVFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. IF WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT...SOME
3-6SM FOG POSSIBLE IN RECENT RAINFALL AREAS. CLEARING CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS BY MID WED MORNING.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261747
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS ARE PERCULATING OVER NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AM IN WAKE
OF PASSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE MERGING WITH REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING EAST FROM NE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VORTICITY ADVECTION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING MESO-LOW ALONG WITH
SURGE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES WILL ALL RESULT IN FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN TAPERING
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED THIS AM
WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE MESO-LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN... WITH THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY
POCKETS OF RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES) BEING OVER THE WESTERN CWA...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IOW-
DBQ WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE FROM
APPROACHING MES0-LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING ISSUES BEING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING AND PROLONGED BOUTS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE
OF PCPN WILL MIGRATE NORTH OF I-80 AS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-35 KTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. AS
FOR HIGHS TODAY... AS THE CLOUDS/PCPN GO... SO GO THE TEMPS AND
THEREFORE A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH BUST POTENTIAL. HAVE NUDGED
DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RAIN
AND LINGERING CLOUDS AND HAVE AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S THERE WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT... ANTICIPATE GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN TIME AS WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (MID/UPPER 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHEAST (LOWER 60S) UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE
THE CHANCES FOR POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN THE
CHANCE FOR POPS THIS WEEKEND.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH CHCS OF POPS
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
THIS OCCURS BECAUSE ANOTHER TROF IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.  THIS
GIVES US ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF H5 RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT TROF TURNS
THE FLOW TO THE SW ON THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND PLEASANT.

THURSDAY THE FLOW TURNS SSW ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD USHER
MOISTURE AND SHRTWVS INTO THE AREA AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SPECTRAL MODELS WITH LARGER
GRID SPACING SEEM TO BE OVERDOING IT WITH COVERAGE OF THE POPS.
THEY HAVE DONE IT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM SOUTH OF HERE OR ISSUES WITH PARAMETRIZATION
SCHEMES.  REGARDLESS...THEY DEPICT DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST AS FAR AS COVERAGE OF POPS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z.  AFTER 00Z FRIDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT NW ZONES THE MOST FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD AFFECT A FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THOSE DIFFERENCES WOULD
LIKELY AFFECT MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THE OVERALL TROF IS SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...LEADING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WOUND UP SFC LOW WAS ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF DBQ
ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW SCTRD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ROLLING ACRS THE
AREA. WILL WALK THOSE OUT THROUGH 2 PM...BUT WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEB PUSHING EASTWARD...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
UPTICK IN ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT AND COVERAGE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR DECKS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. SOUTH OR VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
SOME CHC OF WRAP AROUND MVFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. IF WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT...SOME
3-6SM FOG POSSIBLE IN RECENT RAINFALL AREAS. CLEARING CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS BY MID WED MORNING.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261747
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS ARE PERCULATING OVER NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AM IN WAKE
OF PASSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE MERGING WITH REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING EAST FROM NE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VORTICITY ADVECTION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING MESO-LOW ALONG WITH
SURGE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES WILL ALL RESULT IN FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN TAPERING
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED THIS AM
WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE MESO-LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN... WITH THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY
POCKETS OF RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES) BEING OVER THE WESTERN CWA...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IOW-
DBQ WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE FROM
APPROACHING MES0-LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING ISSUES BEING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING AND PROLONGED BOUTS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE
OF PCPN WILL MIGRATE NORTH OF I-80 AS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-35 KTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. AS
FOR HIGHS TODAY... AS THE CLOUDS/PCPN GO... SO GO THE TEMPS AND
THEREFORE A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH BUST POTENTIAL. HAVE NUDGED
DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RAIN
AND LINGERING CLOUDS AND HAVE AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S THERE WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT... ANTICIPATE GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN TIME AS WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (MID/UPPER 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHEAST (LOWER 60S) UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE
THE CHANCES FOR POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN THE
CHANCE FOR POPS THIS WEEKEND.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH CHCS OF POPS
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
THIS OCCURS BECAUSE ANOTHER TROF IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.  THIS
GIVES US ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF H5 RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT TROF TURNS
THE FLOW TO THE SW ON THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND PLEASANT.

THURSDAY THE FLOW TURNS SSW ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD USHER
MOISTURE AND SHRTWVS INTO THE AREA AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SPECTRAL MODELS WITH LARGER
GRID SPACING SEEM TO BE OVERDOING IT WITH COVERAGE OF THE POPS.
THEY HAVE DONE IT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM SOUTH OF HERE OR ISSUES WITH PARAMETRIZATION
SCHEMES.  REGARDLESS...THEY DEPICT DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST AS FAR AS COVERAGE OF POPS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z.  AFTER 00Z FRIDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT NW ZONES THE MOST FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD AFFECT A FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THOSE DIFFERENCES WOULD
LIKELY AFFECT MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THE OVERALL TROF IS SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...LEADING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WOUND UP SFC LOW WAS ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD JUST WEST OF DBQ
ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW SCTRD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ROLLING ACRS THE
AREA. WILL WALK THOSE OUT THROUGH 2 PM...BUT WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEB PUSHING EASTWARD...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
UPTICK IN ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT AND COVERAGE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR DECKS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR
BY MID AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. SOUTH OR VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
SOME CHC OF WRAP AROUND MVFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 10 PM AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. IF WINDS GO LIGHT ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT...SOME
3-6SM FOG POSSIBLE IN RECENT RAINFALL AREAS. CLEARING CONDITIONS
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS BY MID WED MORNING.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 261149
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS ARE PERCULATING OVER NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AM IN WAKE
OF PASSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE MERGING WITH REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING EAST FROM NE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VORTICITY ADVECTION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING MESO-LOW ALONG WITH
SURGE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES WILL ALL RESULT IN FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN TAPERING
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED THIS AM
WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE MESO-LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN... WITH THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY
POCKETS OF RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES) BEING OVER THE WESTERN CWA...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IOW-
DBQ WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE FROM
APPROACHING MES0-LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING ISSUES BEING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING AND PROLONGED BOUTS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE
OF PCPN WILL MIGRATE NORTH OF I-80 AS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-35 KTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. AS
FOR HIGHS TODAY... AS THE CLOUDS/PCPN GO... SO GO THE TEMPS AND
THEREFORE A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH BUST POTENTIAL. HAVE NUDGED
DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RAIN
AND LINGERING CLOUDS AND HAVE AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S THERE WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT... ANTICIPATE GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN TIME AS WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (MID/UPPER 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHEAST (LOWER 60S) UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE
THE CHANCES FOR POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN THE
CHANCE FOR POPS THIS WEEKEND.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH CHCS OF POPS
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
THIS OCCURS BECAUSE ANOTHER TROF IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.  THIS
GIVES US ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF H5 RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT TROF TURNS
THE FLOW TO THE SW ON THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND PLEASANT.

THURSDAY THE FLOW TURNS SSW ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD USHER
MOISTURE AND SHRTWVS INTO THE AREA AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SPECTRAL MODELS WITH LARGER
GRID SPACING SEEM TO BE OVERDOING IT WITH COVERAGE OF THE POPS.
THEY HAVE DONE IT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM SOUTH OF HERE OR ISSUES WITH PARAMETRIZATION
SCHEMES.  REGARDLESS...THEY DEPICT DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST AS FAR AS COVERAGE OF POPS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z.  AFTER 00Z FRIDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT NW ZONES THE MOST FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD AFFECT A FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THOSE DIFFERENCES WOULD
LIKELY AFFECT MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THE OVERALL TROF IS SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...LEADING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE FOUND THIS AM WITH MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH... BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT
TERMINALS THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THIS CHANCE FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BLO 10 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 261149
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS ARE PERCULATING OVER NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AM IN WAKE
OF PASSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE MERGING WITH REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING EAST FROM NE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VORTICITY ADVECTION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING MESO-LOW ALONG WITH
SURGE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES WILL ALL RESULT IN FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN TAPERING
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED THIS AM
WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE MESO-LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN... WITH THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY
POCKETS OF RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES) BEING OVER THE WESTERN CWA...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IOW-
DBQ WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE FROM
APPROACHING MES0-LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING ISSUES BEING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING AND PROLONGED BOUTS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE
OF PCPN WILL MIGRATE NORTH OF I-80 AS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-35 KTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. AS
FOR HIGHS TODAY... AS THE CLOUDS/PCPN GO... SO GO THE TEMPS AND
THEREFORE A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH BUST POTENTIAL. HAVE NUDGED
DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RAIN
AND LINGERING CLOUDS AND HAVE AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S THERE WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT... ANTICIPATE GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN TIME AS WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (MID/UPPER 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHEAST (LOWER 60S) UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE
THE CHANCES FOR POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN THE
CHANCE FOR POPS THIS WEEKEND.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH CHCS OF POPS
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
THIS OCCURS BECAUSE ANOTHER TROF IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.  THIS
GIVES US ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF H5 RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT TROF TURNS
THE FLOW TO THE SW ON THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND PLEASANT.

THURSDAY THE FLOW TURNS SSW ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD USHER
MOISTURE AND SHRTWVS INTO THE AREA AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SPECTRAL MODELS WITH LARGER
GRID SPACING SEEM TO BE OVERDOING IT WITH COVERAGE OF THE POPS.
THEY HAVE DONE IT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM SOUTH OF HERE OR ISSUES WITH PARAMETRIZATION
SCHEMES.  REGARDLESS...THEY DEPICT DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST AS FAR AS COVERAGE OF POPS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z.  AFTER 00Z FRIDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT NW ZONES THE MOST FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD AFFECT A FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THOSE DIFFERENCES WOULD
LIKELY AFFECT MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THE OVERALL TROF IS SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...LEADING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE FOUND THIS AM WITH MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH... BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT
TERMINALS THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THIS CHANCE FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BLO 10 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 260840
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS ARE PERCULATING OVER NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AM IN WAKE
OF PASSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE MERGING WITH REMNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING EAST FROM NE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT...VORTICITY ADVECTION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING MESO-LOW ALONG WITH
SURGE OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES WILL ALL RESULT IN FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS
DAY PROGRESSES WITH A FEW STORMS AS WELL. WEAK COOL FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT IN TAPERING
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED THIS AM
WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE MESO-LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN... WITH THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS (POTENTIALLY
POCKETS OF RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES) BEING OVER THE WESTERN CWA...
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR IOW-
DBQ WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE FROM
APPROACHING MES0-LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLOODING ISSUES BEING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING AND PROLONGED BOUTS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THIS AFTERNOON IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH GREATER COVERAGE
OF PCPN WILL MIGRATE NORTH OF I-80 AS SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AND MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-35 KTS FOR POTENTIAL OF
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO SHOULD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. AS
FOR HIGHS TODAY... AS THE CLOUDS/PCPN GO... SO GO THE TEMPS AND
THEREFORE A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH BUST POTENTIAL. HAVE NUDGED
DOWN HIGHS 1-2 DEGS NORTHWEST CWA WHERE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RAIN
AND LINGERING CLOUDS AND HAVE AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S THERE WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT... ANTICIPATE GRADUAL TAPERING OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH IN TIME AS WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (MID/UPPER 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHEAST (LOWER 60S) UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE
THE CHANCES FOR POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN THE
CHANCE FOR POPS THIS WEEKEND.  ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH CHCS OF POPS
VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT TROF THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS.
THIS OCCURS BECAUSE ANOTHER TROF IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.  THIS
GIVES US ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF H5 RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT TROF TURNS
THE FLOW TO THE SW ON THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND PLEASANT.

THURSDAY THE FLOW TURNS SSW ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS SHOULD USHER
MOISTURE AND SHRTWVS INTO THE AREA AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SPECTRAL MODELS WITH LARGER
GRID SPACING SEEM TO BE OVERDOING IT WITH COVERAGE OF THE POPS.
THEY HAVE DONE IT WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM SOUTH OF HERE OR ISSUES WITH PARAMETRIZATION
SCHEMES.  REGARDLESS...THEY DEPICT DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE THE BEST AS FAR AS COVERAGE OF POPS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA
UNTIL NEAR 00Z.  AFTER 00Z FRIDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT NW ZONES THE MOST FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD AFFECT A FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THOSE DIFFERENCES WOULD
LIKELY AFFECT MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE INHERENTLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.  THE OVERALL TROF IS SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...LEADING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEING CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT
AT KCID/KDBQ...THEN AT KBRL/KMLI AFTER 11Z. RAIN WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAIN.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 260459
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING WARM SECTOR SOUTHWESTERLIES
ENGULFING THE REGION...WITH MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MN EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WI. TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE ACRS SW MN INTO CENTRAL NEB... JUTTING DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. A FEW LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENT AREAS
OF NOTE JUST UPSTREAM...ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED
ONE WAVE DEPARTING THE AREA ACRS WI NORTHERN LK MI...AND A VIGOROUS
VORT MAX DIGGING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TX-OK/. A BOUT OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES PROBABLY HELPING KEEP
A LID ON ANY LOCAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN AFTERNOON HEATING...FOR
NOW. SBCAPES GROWING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE SCTRD CONVECTION ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OTHER POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE SPAWNING GROUNDS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL IA. 30-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY H85 JET ALONG WITH SOME OTHER LLVL SHEAR
ENHANCEMENT PROGGED TO BUILD ACRS EASTERN IA THIS EVENING THRU MID
NIGHT. THUS SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAKE
IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. BUT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE THE ONGOING UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL
LINGER ACRS THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN LONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING...DEEPER SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUST PRIMARY AND LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREATS. INTERESTING THAT
SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM HIRES SOLUTIONS VARY FROM TOTALLY DRY ACRS
THE1212 LOCAL AREA 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...TO SOME STRONG STORMS
SCATTERING ABOUT ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA
GENERALLY FROM AROUND 8 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...BUT LACK OF A
FORCING FOCAL POINT MAY SUPPORT THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BACK SOME TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. THEN EYES TURN TO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE AS IT EJECTS
OUT AND ROLLS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO
BY DAYBREAK TUE. ACCOMPANYING LLVL THTA-E PLUME AND LIFT INDICATED
ON MCS-GENERATION TOOL SUGGEST A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OR MCS
TYPE FEATURE MAY BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA OUT OF MO BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM THIS COMPLEX IF IT
MATERIALIZED AND MAKES IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO WALK THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIGHT ACRS
THE CWA WHILE A L/W TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY...MUCH OF TUE
COULD BE A WET ONE WITH SHOWER/STORMS CLUSTERS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTH ACRS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE BULK/DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
ARE PROGGED FOR TOMORROW MORNING...TIME OF DAY AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/RAIN ITSELF IMPEDING HEATING MAY LIMIT MUCH OF ANY SEVERE
STORM THREAT TUE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT. THE HIGHER COVERAGE MAY THEN PUSH
NORTH OF I80 BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SCTRD/DECREASING COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OR A DRY
MID LEVEL INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH MAY BE THE ONE FACTOR TO HELP
MAKE FOR A STRONGER STORM IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON. A BIG
BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUE HIGH TEMPS IF CLOUDS/RAIN HANG ON STRONG OR
CLEAR OFF EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL PLAY THE HAPPY MEDIUM
CARD OF MID TO UPPER 70S.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE
WETTEST PERIOD THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED FORECAST. PERSISTENT MOIST
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT BROAD TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OCCURS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM. THE
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS CORROBORATED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST IN CASE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FORM DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL PUT A LIMIT ON STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERITY.

FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK ON FRIDAY UP AROUND 570 DAM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THRERE COULD BE A JET
ENTRANCE REGION IN THE SAME VICINITY.

850 MB HEIGHT FIELDS EXPOSE A VERY MOIST TRAJECTORY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS STILL A
LONG WAY OUT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
FROM TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THEN WASHES OUT. THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE GFS KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. PRECIP
CHANCES STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60-70 LIKELY POPS ON
SATURDAY DROPPING TO 30-40 ON SUNDAY.    UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT
AT KCID/KDBQ...THEN AT KBRL/KMLI AFTER 11Z. RAIN WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAIN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





000
FXUS63 KDVN 260459
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING WARM SECTOR SOUTHWESTERLIES
ENGULFING THE REGION...WITH MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MN EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WI. TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE ACRS SW MN INTO CENTRAL NEB... JUTTING DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. A FEW LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENT AREAS
OF NOTE JUST UPSTREAM...ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED
ONE WAVE DEPARTING THE AREA ACRS WI NORTHERN LK MI...AND A VIGOROUS
VORT MAX DIGGING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TX-OK/. A BOUT OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES PROBABLY HELPING KEEP
A LID ON ANY LOCAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN AFTERNOON HEATING...FOR
NOW. SBCAPES GROWING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE SCTRD CONVECTION ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OTHER POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE SPAWNING GROUNDS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL IA. 30-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY H85 JET ALONG WITH SOME OTHER LLVL SHEAR
ENHANCEMENT PROGGED TO BUILD ACRS EASTERN IA THIS EVENING THRU MID
NIGHT. THUS SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAKE
IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. BUT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE THE ONGOING UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL
LINGER ACRS THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN LONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING...DEEPER SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUST PRIMARY AND LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREATS. INTERESTING THAT
SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM HIRES SOLUTIONS VARY FROM TOTALLY DRY ACRS
THE1212 LOCAL AREA 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...TO SOME STRONG STORMS
SCATTERING ABOUT ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA
GENERALLY FROM AROUND 8 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...BUT LACK OF A
FORCING FOCAL POINT MAY SUPPORT THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BACK SOME TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. THEN EYES TURN TO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE AS IT EJECTS
OUT AND ROLLS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO
BY DAYBREAK TUE. ACCOMPANYING LLVL THTA-E PLUME AND LIFT INDICATED
ON MCS-GENERATION TOOL SUGGEST A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OR MCS
TYPE FEATURE MAY BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA OUT OF MO BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM THIS COMPLEX IF IT
MATERIALIZED AND MAKES IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO WALK THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIGHT ACRS
THE CWA WHILE A L/W TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY...MUCH OF TUE
COULD BE A WET ONE WITH SHOWER/STORMS CLUSTERS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTH ACRS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE BULK/DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
ARE PROGGED FOR TOMORROW MORNING...TIME OF DAY AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/RAIN ITSELF IMPEDING HEATING MAY LIMIT MUCH OF ANY SEVERE
STORM THREAT TUE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT. THE HIGHER COVERAGE MAY THEN PUSH
NORTH OF I80 BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SCTRD/DECREASING COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OR A DRY
MID LEVEL INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH MAY BE THE ONE FACTOR TO HELP
MAKE FOR A STRONGER STORM IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON. A BIG
BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUE HIGH TEMPS IF CLOUDS/RAIN HANG ON STRONG OR
CLEAR OFF EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL PLAY THE HAPPY MEDIUM
CARD OF MID TO UPPER 70S.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE
WETTEST PERIOD THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED FORECAST. PERSISTENT MOIST
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT BROAD TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OCCURS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM. THE
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS CORROBORATED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST IN CASE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FORM DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL PUT A LIMIT ON STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERITY.

FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK ON FRIDAY UP AROUND 570 DAM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THRERE COULD BE A JET
ENTRANCE REGION IN THE SAME VICINITY.

850 MB HEIGHT FIELDS EXPOSE A VERY MOIST TRAJECTORY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS STILL A
LONG WAY OUT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
FROM TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THEN WASHES OUT. THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE GFS KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. PRECIP
CHANCES STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60-70 LIKELY POPS ON
SATURDAY DROPPING TO 30-40 ON SUNDAY.    UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT
AT KCID/KDBQ...THEN AT KBRL/KMLI AFTER 11Z. RAIN WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAIN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 260459
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING WARM SECTOR SOUTHWESTERLIES
ENGULFING THE REGION...WITH MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MN EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WI. TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE ACRS SW MN INTO CENTRAL NEB... JUTTING DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. A FEW LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENT AREAS
OF NOTE JUST UPSTREAM...ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED
ONE WAVE DEPARTING THE AREA ACRS WI NORTHERN LK MI...AND A VIGOROUS
VORT MAX DIGGING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TX-OK/. A BOUT OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES PROBABLY HELPING KEEP
A LID ON ANY LOCAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN AFTERNOON HEATING...FOR
NOW. SBCAPES GROWING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE SCTRD CONVECTION ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OTHER POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE SPAWNING GROUNDS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL IA. 30-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY H85 JET ALONG WITH SOME OTHER LLVL SHEAR
ENHANCEMENT PROGGED TO BUILD ACRS EASTERN IA THIS EVENING THRU MID
NIGHT. THUS SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAKE
IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. BUT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE THE ONGOING UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL
LINGER ACRS THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN LONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING...DEEPER SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUST PRIMARY AND LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREATS. INTERESTING THAT
SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM HIRES SOLUTIONS VARY FROM TOTALLY DRY ACRS
THE1212 LOCAL AREA 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...TO SOME STRONG STORMS
SCATTERING ABOUT ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA
GENERALLY FROM AROUND 8 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...BUT LACK OF A
FORCING FOCAL POINT MAY SUPPORT THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BACK SOME TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. THEN EYES TURN TO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE AS IT EJECTS
OUT AND ROLLS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO
BY DAYBREAK TUE. ACCOMPANYING LLVL THTA-E PLUME AND LIFT INDICATED
ON MCS-GENERATION TOOL SUGGEST A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OR MCS
TYPE FEATURE MAY BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA OUT OF MO BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM THIS COMPLEX IF IT
MATERIALIZED AND MAKES IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO WALK THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIGHT ACRS
THE CWA WHILE A L/W TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY...MUCH OF TUE
COULD BE A WET ONE WITH SHOWER/STORMS CLUSTERS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTH ACRS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE BULK/DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
ARE PROGGED FOR TOMORROW MORNING...TIME OF DAY AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/RAIN ITSELF IMPEDING HEATING MAY LIMIT MUCH OF ANY SEVERE
STORM THREAT TUE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT. THE HIGHER COVERAGE MAY THEN PUSH
NORTH OF I80 BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SCTRD/DECREASING COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OR A DRY
MID LEVEL INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH MAY BE THE ONE FACTOR TO HELP
MAKE FOR A STRONGER STORM IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON. A BIG
BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUE HIGH TEMPS IF CLOUDS/RAIN HANG ON STRONG OR
CLEAR OFF EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL PLAY THE HAPPY MEDIUM
CARD OF MID TO UPPER 70S.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE
WETTEST PERIOD THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED FORECAST. PERSISTENT MOIST
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT BROAD TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OCCURS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM. THE
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS CORROBORATED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST IN CASE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FORM DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL PUT A LIMIT ON STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERITY.

FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK ON FRIDAY UP AROUND 570 DAM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THRERE COULD BE A JET
ENTRANCE REGION IN THE SAME VICINITY.

850 MB HEIGHT FIELDS EXPOSE A VERY MOIST TRAJECTORY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS STILL A
LONG WAY OUT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
FROM TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THEN WASHES OUT. THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE GFS KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. PRECIP
CHANCES STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60-70 LIKELY POPS ON
SATURDAY DROPPING TO 30-40 ON SUNDAY.    UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT
AT KCID/KDBQ...THEN AT KBRL/KMLI AFTER 11Z. RAIN WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAIN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 260459
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING WARM SECTOR SOUTHWESTERLIES
ENGULFING THE REGION...WITH MAIN WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MN EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WI. TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE ACRS SW MN INTO CENTRAL NEB... JUTTING DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. A FEW LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENT AREAS
OF NOTE JUST UPSTREAM...ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOW PATTERNS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED
ONE WAVE DEPARTING THE AREA ACRS WI NORTHERN LK MI...AND A VIGOROUS
VORT MAX DIGGING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/TX-OK/. A BOUT OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN-BETWEEN THESE FEATURES PROBABLY HELPING KEEP
A LID ON ANY LOCAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN AFTERNOON HEATING...FOR
NOW. SBCAPES GROWING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE SCTRD CONVECTION ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE OTHER POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE SPAWNING GROUNDS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL IA. 30-40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY H85 JET ALONG WITH SOME OTHER LLVL SHEAR
ENHANCEMENT PROGGED TO BUILD ACRS EASTERN IA THIS EVENING THRU MID
NIGHT. THUS SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAKE
IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. BUT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BATTLE THE ONGOING UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL
LINGER ACRS THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN LONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING...DEEPER SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUST PRIMARY AND LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREATS. INTERESTING THAT
SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM HIRES SOLUTIONS VARY FROM TOTALLY DRY ACRS
THE1212 LOCAL AREA 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...TO SOME STRONG STORMS
SCATTERING ABOUT ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA
GENERALLY FROM AROUND 8 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...BUT LACK OF A
FORCING FOCAL POINT MAY SUPPORT THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BACK SOME TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. THEN EYES TURN TO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE AS IT EJECTS
OUT AND ROLLS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO
BY DAYBREAK TUE. ACCOMPANYING LLVL THTA-E PLUME AND LIFT INDICATED
ON MCS-GENERATION TOOL SUGGEST A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OR MCS
TYPE FEATURE MAY BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA OUT OF MO BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM THIS COMPLEX IF IT
MATERIALIZED AND MAKES IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

TUESDAY...CONTINUING TO WALK THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIGHT ACRS
THE CWA WHILE A L/W TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY...MUCH OF TUE
COULD BE A WET ONE WITH SHOWER/STORMS CLUSTERS CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTH ACRS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE BULK/DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
ARE PROGGED FOR TOMORROW MORNING...TIME OF DAY AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/RAIN ITSELF IMPEDING HEATING MAY LIMIT MUCH OF ANY SEVERE
STORM THREAT TUE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT. THE HIGHER COVERAGE MAY THEN PUSH
NORTH OF I80 BY AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SCTRD/DECREASING COVERAGE IN
THE SOUTH AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OR A DRY
MID LEVEL INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH MAY BE THE ONE FACTOR TO HELP
MAKE FOR A STRONGER STORM IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON. A BIG
BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUE HIGH TEMPS IF CLOUDS/RAIN HANG ON STRONG OR
CLEAR OFF EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL PLAY THE HAPPY MEDIUM
CARD OF MID TO UPPER 70S.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE
WETTEST PERIOD THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED FORECAST. PERSISTENT MOIST
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT BROAD TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT DROP OCCURS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY
BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WARM. THE
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS CORROBORATED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST IN CASE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FORM DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL PUT A LIMIT ON STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERITY.

FRIDAY...MODELS ARE HINTING AT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK ON FRIDAY UP AROUND 570 DAM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THRERE COULD BE A JET
ENTRANCE REGION IN THE SAME VICINITY.

850 MB HEIGHT FIELDS EXPOSE A VERY MOIST TRAJECTORY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO VEERING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS STILL A
LONG WAY OUT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
FROM TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THEN WASHES OUT. THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT THE GFS KEEPS SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. PRECIP
CHANCES STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 60-70 LIKELY POPS ON
SATURDAY DROPPING TO 30-40 ON SUNDAY.    UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT
AT KCID/KDBQ...THEN AT KBRL/KMLI AFTER 11Z. RAIN WILL END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING...OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAIN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY





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