Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KDVN 242336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR THE REGION.
THE FIRST ONE WAS OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MARGINAL MUCAPE VALUES WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WERE
COMMON WITH THIS FIRST WAVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE CWA. THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF KANSAS CITY WITH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT IN MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EVIDENT ACROSS THE CWA AS OF 2 PM WITH
READINGS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S OVER THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR KANSAS CITY TO TRACK NEAR ST.
LOUIS THIS EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER 0OKLAHOMA HEADS TOWARDS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE AND HI-RES MODELS ALL
SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS RESULTS
MAINLY IN RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ENDING QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALTHOUGH MARGINAL MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF AND HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THIS EVENING. BETTER
INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN. FEEL THAT THE SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO OUR AREA THUS HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS TO THAT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEM MORE REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW CLOUDS
TO QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY
EARLY MORNING. THIS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE REGION IS STILL IN LINE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AS AN
UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS SOLUTION IS
PRESENTED BY ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH LENDS MORE
CONFIDENCE TO THE WET FORECAST NEXT WEEK.  THE PROLONGED RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER A PERIOD OF 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE ONLY CRY DAY DURING THE MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN TROF MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES...PUSHING AN
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF WILL HAVE A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH MISSOURI.  EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTH
WHERE HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 60 WHILE CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN
THE SOUTH MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROF
SATURDAY AND WILL POOL ALONG THE SURFACE AND H8 FRONTS.  WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME THE BEST
FORCING BASED ON CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ SHOULD BE
LOCATED TO OUR WEST NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SO THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN PULLING IN COOLER AIR OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH FOR
NOW.  SOME GUIDANCE THOUGH WAS SHOWING LOWS NORTH AS COLD AS THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO IOWA.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE THE GREATEST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
MONDAY AND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES /IN A
48 HOUR PERIOD/ OVER ALL OR PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE LOW...THE COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CREATE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  WHILE THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ANY AFTERNOON SUN WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED STORM.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN WITH GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES
AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE EFFECT
OF THE RAIN ON THE AREA RIVERS WILL LESSENED SOME BY THE FACT THAT
THE RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD...ALLOWING THE
INITIAL RAINFALL TO SOAK IN. ONCE THE GROUND SATURATES THEN RUNOFF
WILL INCREASE.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BY
TUESDAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
HYDROLOGY...DLF







000
FXUS63 KDVN 242032
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR THE REGION.
THE FIRST ONE WAS OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MARGINAL MUCAPE VALUES WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WERE
COMMON WITH THIS FIRST WAVE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE CWA. THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF KANSAS CITY WITH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD
OF IT IN MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EVIDENT ACROSS THE CWA AS OF 2 PM WITH
READINGS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S OVER THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR KANSAS CITY TO TRACK NEAR ST.
LOUIS THIS EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER 0OKLAHOMA HEADS TOWARDS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE AND HI-RES MODELS ALL
SHOW STRONG FORCING ARRIVING LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS RESULTS
MAINLY IN RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ENDING QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALTHOUGH MARGINAL MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF AND HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING THIS EVENING. BETTER
INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN. FEEL THAT THE SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO OUR AREA THUS HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS TO THAT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEM MORE REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW CLOUDS
TO QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY
EARLY MORNING. THIS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE REGION IS STILL IN LINE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AS AN
UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS SOLUTION IS
PRESENTED BY ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WHICH LENDS MORE
CONFIDENCE TO THE WET FORECAST NEXT WEEK.  THE PROLONGED RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER A PERIOD OF 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE ONLY CRY DAY DURING THE MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE
SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN TROF MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES...PUSHING AN
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF WILL HAVE A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH MISSOURI.  EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ESPECIALLY NORTH
WHERE HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 60 WHILE CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN
THE SOUTH MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROF
SATURDAY AND WILL POOL ALONG THE SURFACE AND H8 FRONTS.  WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME THE BEST
FORCING BASED ON CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ SHOULD BE
LOCATED TO OUR WEST NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER...SO THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN PULLING IN COOLER AIR OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH FOR
NOW.  SOME GUIDANCE THOUGH WAS SHOWING LOWS NORTH AS COLD AS THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO IOWA.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE THE GREATEST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER
MONDAY AND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.  THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES /IN A
48 HOUR PERIOD/ OVER ALL OR PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE LOW...THE COLD POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CREATE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  WHILE THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD...ANY AFTERNOON SUN WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED STORM.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES
AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE EFFECT
OF THE RAIN ON THE AREA RIVERS WILL LESSENED SOME BY THE FACT THAT
THE RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD...ALLOWING THE
INITIAL RAINFALL TO SOAK IN. ONCE THE GROUND SATURATES THEN RUNOFF
WILL INCREASE.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BY
TUESDAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM KMCI TO KSTL THIS EVENING
SPREADING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY CONDITIONS
WILL BE MVFR IN RAIN...POSSIBLY DROPPING BRIEFLY INTO IFR
CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN/T BE RULED OUT MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING AT THE BRL
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 01-03Z/25 ENDING THE RAIN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA DURING THE
MID EVENING HOURS AND THROUGH ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z/25. CLOUDS TO
CLEAR RAPIDLY BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURNING
TO VFR BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
HYDROLOGY...DLF
AVIATION...GROSS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 241124
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
624 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH
AND MOISTURE OVER KS THIS MORNING. OUR CWA IS NOW MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE ELEVATED WAA SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION LAST EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WHERE ACTIVITY FORMING IN
CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THESE LOCATIONS. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS NOT LEAVING MUCH QPF
BEHIND.

THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER/UPPER LOW OF THE TWO SET
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS LOCATED NEAR AMARILLO THIS AS OF 230
AM. MODELS HAVE BEEN MAKING THIS FEATURE THE MORE DOMINANT LOW
TODAY...AND BY THE LOOKS OF WATER VAPOR THAT IS THE RIGHT CALL. I
WILL BASE MY FORECAST ON SEEING THAT FEATURE AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
ELEMENT THAT ALL OTHER FEATURES RELATE TO MOST.

ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN SPLIT ON SHOWING LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATIONS WITH
TODAYS FORECAST...WITH EITHER AN ELONGATED LOW FROM MISSOURI TO
MINNESOTA...OR A MORE DISTINCT LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRIKING
APPEARANCE OF THE UPPER LOW/VORT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY
TODAY...I AM CHOOSING TO BELIEVE IN THE MORE COMPACT 500MB LOW AND
STRONGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INDICATED BY THE MESO MODELS AND ALSO
THE HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z ECMWF. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVELS ARE
CONTINUING TO FEED IN DRY AIR FROM THE EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING. THE MORE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO WILL FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION EAST OF THE RAIN
TODAY...AND WITH IT PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR PCPN WILL BE RAIN VS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. I CANT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER TODAY...AND GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ARRIVING TOWARDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY
LEAD TO A DRY DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SOMEWHAT AS WELL FOR HIGHS WITH
MORE OF THE DAY DRY IN THE EAST AS WELL. WILL MARCH CATEGORICAL POPS
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING WEST TO EVENING IN ILLINOIS. FOR THE
EASTERN HALF...MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS EVENTS RAIN MAY FALL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 SEEM MOST LIKELY
WITH MODERATE RATES.

TONIGHT...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH
COLD ADVECTION ONLY MODEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE
LOWER 40S WEST TO UPPER 40S EAST.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTHEAST AREA WERE KEPT BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY SOUTH OF I-80. SEVERAL MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A SURGE OF DRIER AIR COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. THE EVENING
MAY START OUT DRY BUT SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE AREA
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
BE SEEN AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY ON...
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A SCENARIO THAT RESULTS
IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HOW IT MOVES OVER TIME...AND
WHERE A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THESE FEATURES ALL
PLAY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
RAINFALL.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST OF DAILY RAIN CHANCES DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A SLOWLY MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING. AT
12Z...IT WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING BOTH CID AND DBQ WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A VERY BRIEF THUNDERSTORM...BUT WILL TAKE
UNTIL AROUND 18Z TO 20Z BEFORE IMPACTING MLI AND BRL
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST 4 HOURS OF MODERATE RAIN
AT MOST LOCATIONS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE PERIOD OF RAIN...AND WILL LAST UNTIL OUR
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE RAIN. AHEAD OF THE RAIN...BOTH MLI AND BRL
CAN EXPECT MANY HOURS OF VFR WEATHER. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS
TONIGHT...A RETURN TO VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ERVIN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY NEARBY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL BE POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL DEPEND
UPON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.

THE FACT THAT THE GROUND IS DRIER THAN NORMAL WILL INITIALLY HELP.
SOME OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK INTO THE GROUND AND NOT REACH AREA
RIVERS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE GROUND AND CREATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RUN OFF INTO AREA WATERWAYS RESULTING IN RISES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 240839
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH
AND MOISTURE OVER KS THIS MORNING. OUR CWA IS NOW MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE ELEVATED WAA SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION LAST EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WHERE ACTIVITY FORMING IN
CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THESE LOCATIONS. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS NOT LEAVING MUCH QPF
BEHIND.

THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER/UPPER LOW OF THE TWO SET
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST IS LOCATED NEAR AMARILLO THIS AS OF 230
AM. MODELS HAVE BEEN MAKING THIS FEATURE THE MORE DOMINANT LOW
TODAY...AND BY THE LOOKS OF WATER VAPOR THAT IS THE RIGHT CALL. I
WILL BASE MY FORECAST ON SEEING THAT FEATURE AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
ELEMENT THAT ALL OTHER FEATURES RELATE TO MOST.

ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN SPLIT ON SHOWING LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATIONS WITH
TODAYS FORECAST...WITH EITHER AN ELONGATED LOW FROM MISSOURI TO
MINNESOTA...OR A MORE DISTINCT LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRIKING
APPEARANCE OF THE UPPER LOW/VORT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY
TODAY...I AM CHOOSING TO BELIEVE IN THE MORE COMPACT 500MB LOW AND
STRONGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INDICATED BY THE MESO MODELS AND ALSO
THE HIGH RESOLUTION 00Z ECMWF. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVELS ARE
CONTINUING TO FEED IN DRY AIR FROM THE EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING. THE MORE
CLOSED LOW SCENARIO WILL FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION EAST OF THE RAIN
TODAY...AND WITH IT PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR PCPN WILL BE RAIN VS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. I CANT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDED THUNDER TODAY...AND GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS ARRIVING TOWARDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY
LEAD TO A DRY DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SOMEWHAT AS WELL FOR HIGHS WITH
MORE OF THE DAY DRY IN THE EAST AS WELL. WILL MARCH CATEGORICAL POPS
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING WEST TO EVENING IN ILLINOIS. FOR THE
EASTERN HALF...MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS EVENTS RAIN MAY FALL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 SEEM MOST LIKELY
WITH MODERATE RATES.

TONIGHT...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING...WITH
COLD ADVECTION ONLY MODEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE
LOWER 40S WEST TO UPPER 40S EAST.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTHEAST AREA WERE KEPT BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA...LIKELY SOUTH OF I-80. SEVERAL MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A SURGE OF DRIER AIR COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. FOR THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT A POTENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. THE EVENING
MAY START OUT DRY BUT SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BREAK OUT ACROSS THE AREA
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
BE SEEN AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY ON...
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A SCENARIO THAT RESULTS
IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HOW IT MOVES OVER TIME...AND
WHERE A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. THESE FEATURES ALL
PLAY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
RAINFALL.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST OF DAILY RAIN CHANCES DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER FROM SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DEVELOPING GUSTY SE WINDS 15-25 KTS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IA WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN ANY BRIEF BOUT OF MODERATE RAIN
WHERE MVFR VSBYS OF 4-5SM POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR (VSBYS) AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON... THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
VFR.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY NEARBY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL WILL BE POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL DEPEND
UPON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.

THE FACT THAT THE GROUND IS DRIER THAN NORMAL WILL INITIALLY HELP.
SOME OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK INTO THE GROUND AND NOT REACH AREA
RIVERS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE GROUND AND CREATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RUN OFF INTO AREA WATERWAYS RESULTING IN RISES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05
HYDROLOGY...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 240431
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT AIMED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA LATE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS.
THIS LIFT SHOWN TO FOCUS MORE INTO WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...SO COULD
SEE A PERIOD LATER TNGT INTO EARLY THU AM WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON
WITH MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND HAVE
LOWERED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SWATH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO CWA MID TO LATE AM AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...AND LIKELY WILL BE TOWARD MIDDAY INTO AFTN FOR BULK OF RAIN
TO REACH MS RVR COUNTIES INTO NW/WCNTRL IL. AS FOR TEMPS... DID
LOWER MINS 1-2 DEGS TNGT WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT DRYING
ESPECIALLY EAST.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER RIDGING THAT RAN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO CANADA WITH A LARGE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED WITH ONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A SOUTH DAKOTA LOW
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO LOUISIANA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
ELEVATED SHOWERS JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
THESE RETURNS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS IOWA
DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. DO NOT EXPECT READINGS TO RISE
MUCH MORE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S. STRONG
WAA ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT NEARING THE CWA THURSDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT
AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 50S SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
COMPLETELY SATURATE BY 12Z AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IOWA.
THE BEST COVERAGE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM THE MID MORNING TO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/OMEGAS/MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE THE STRONGEST DURING THIS TIME. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
HALF INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH APPEAR LIKELY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY. THE LATEST NAM/GEM/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH SECTIONS THAT WOULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE MID AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS THE BLOCKED
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT ALL MODELS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SHOWN BY THE
ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE DETAILS ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW AND AREA OF MAX RAINFALL DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE
SOLUTIONS LEADING TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINER
POINTS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK THE UPPER TROF THAT/S MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING.  WE SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIVER BEFORE 06Z WITH THE RAIN MOVING WELL EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLEARING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY
MILD DAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.  FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THE 12Z RUNS WERE KEEPING THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
06Z RUNS DEPICTED...SO INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS FOR NORTHWEST IL.

SATURDAY A DEEP MID LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
PUMPING UP MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS SHOULD BRING
ONE MORE MILD AND DRY DAY TO THE REGION.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL SET
UP A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...INTO THE
MIDWEST ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD PLACE
THE REGION IN AN AREA OF PROLONGED PERIOD RAINFALL AS THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LOWS TRACKS SLOWLY EAST...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE IT/S FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER A 48 HOUR OR MORE
PERIOD...THERE/S STILL UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE MAX RAIN AREA WILL SET
UP.  THIS MORNINGS GFS WAS FAVORING SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI.  THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
HAD A RELATIVE MIN IN RAINFALL THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW FEEDING DRY AIR IN FROM EASTERN CANADA.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE REGION REMAINING
WELL ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE
THE SYSTEM MAY BE RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE NORTHERN GFS
SOLUTION VERIFIES.

THE BLENDED GUIDANCE KEPT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THEN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY IN THE COLD EASTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD RAINS NORTH OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOWS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY.  IF THE
PRECIP SETS UP OVER THE REGION THEN SOME AREAS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE STACKED SYSTEM EAST AND
DRYING OUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF THOUGH
LINGERS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRY GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DEVELOPING GUSTY SE WINDS 15-25 KTS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST IA WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN ANY BRIEF BOUT OF MODERATE RAIN
WHERE MVFR VSBYS OF 4-5SM POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR (VSBYS) AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING TO
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON... THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 240258
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
958 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT AIMED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA LATE
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS.
THIS LIFT SHOWN TO FOCUS MORE INTO WI TOWARD DAYBREAK...SO COULD
SEE A PERIOD LATER TNGT INTO EARLY THU AM WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON
WITH MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND HAVE
LOWERED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SWATH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO CWA MID TO LATE AM AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT...AND LIKELY WILL BE TOWARD MIDDAY INTO AFTN FOR BULK OF RAIN
TO REACH MS RVR COUNTIES INTO NW/WCNTRL IL. AS FOR TEMPS... DID
LOWER MINS 1-2 DEGS TNGT WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT DRYING
ESPECIALLY EAST.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER RIDGING THAT RAN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO CANADA WITH A LARGE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED WITH ONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A SOUTH DAKOTA LOW
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO LOUISIANA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
ELEVATED SHOWERS JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
THESE RETURNS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS IOWA
DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. DO NOT EXPECT READINGS TO RISE
MUCH MORE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S. STRONG
WAA ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT NEARING THE CWA THURSDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT
AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 50S SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
COMPLETELY SATURATE BY 12Z AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IOWA.
THE BEST COVERAGE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM THE MID MORNING TO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/OMEGAS/MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE THE STRONGEST DURING THIS TIME. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
HALF INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH APPEAR LIKELY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY. THE LATEST NAM/GEM/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH SECTIONS THAT WOULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE MID AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS THE BLOCKED
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT ALL MODELS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SHOWN BY THE
ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE DETAILS ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW AND AREA OF MAX RAINFALL DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE
SOLUTIONS LEADING TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINER
POINTS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK THE UPPER TROF THAT/S MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING.  WE SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIVER BEFORE 06Z WITH THE RAIN MOVING WELL EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLEARING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY
MILD DAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.  FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THE 12Z RUNS WERE KEEPING THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
06Z RUNS DEPICTED...SO INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS FOR NORTHWEST IL.

SATURDAY A DEEP MID LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
PUMPING UP MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS SHOULD BRING
ONE MORE MILD AND DRY DAY TO THE REGION.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL SET
UP A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...INTO THE
MIDWEST ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD PLACE
THE REGION IN AN AREA OF PROLONGED PERIOD RAINFALL AS THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LOWS TRACKS SLOWLY EAST...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE IT/S FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER A 48 HOUR OR MORE
PERIOD...THERE/S STILL UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE MAX RAIN AREA WILL SET
UP.  THIS MORNINGS GFS WAS FAVORING SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI.  THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
HAD A RELATIVE MIN IN RAINFALL THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW FEEDING DRY AIR IN FROM EASTERN CANADA.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE REGION REMAINING
WELL ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE
THE SYSTEM MAY BE RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE NORTHERN GFS
SOLUTION VERIFIES.

THE BLENDED GUIDANCE KEPT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THEN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY IN THE COLD EASTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD RAINS NORTH OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOWS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY.  IF THE
PRECIP SETS UP OVER THE REGION THEN SOME AREAS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE STACKED SYSTEM EAST AND
DRYING OUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF THOUGH
LINGERS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRY GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TNGT INTO THU AM. PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO ISOLD BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE FOUND EARLY THIS
EVE... WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN ANY MODERATE RAIN
WHERE MVFR VSBYS OF 4-5SM POSSIBLE. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID EVE INTO THE OVRNGT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOWERS AND SCTD STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS ON THU WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR (VSBYS) AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AROUND OR ABOVE 10 KTS
TNGT INTO THU AM AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITHIN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THU AFTN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 232339
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER RIDGING THAT RAN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO CANADA WITH A LARGE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED WITH ONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A SOUTH DAKOTA LOW
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO LOUISIANA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
ELEVATED SHOWERS JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
THESE RETURNS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS IOWA
DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. DO NOT EXPECT READINGS TO RISE
MUCH MORE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S. STRONG
WAA ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT NEARING THE CWA THURSDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT
AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 50S SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
COMPLETELY SATURATE BY 12Z AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IOWA.
THE BEST COVERAGE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM THE MID MORNING TO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/OMEGAS/MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE THE STRONGEST DURING THIS TIME. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
HALF INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH APPEAR LIKELY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY. THE LATEST NAM/GEM/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH SECTIONS THAT WOULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE MID AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS THE BLOCKED
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT ALL MODELS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SHOWN BY THE
ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE DETAILS ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW AND AREA OF MAX RAINFALL DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE
SOLUTIONS LEADING TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINER
POINTS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK THE UPPER TROF THAT/S MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING.  WE SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIVER BEFORE 06Z WITH THE RAIN MOVING WELL EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLEARING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY
MILD DAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.  FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THE 12Z RUNS WERE KEEPING THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
06Z RUNS DEPICTED...SO INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS FOR NORTHWEST IL.

SATURDAY A DEEP MID LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
PUMPING UP MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS SHOULD BRING
ONE MORE MILD AND DRY DAY TO THE REGION.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL SET
UP A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...INTO THE
MIDWEST ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD PLACE
THE REGION IN AN AREA OF PROLONGED PERIOD RAINFALL AS THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LOWS TRACKS SLOWLY EAST...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE IT/S FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER A 48 HOUR OR MORE
PERIOD...THERE/S STILL UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE MAX RAIN AREA WILL SET
UP.  THIS MORNINGS GFS WAS FAVORING SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI.  THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
HAD A RELATIVE MIN IN RAINFALL THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW FEEDING DRY AIR IN FROM EASTERN CANADA.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE REGION REMAINING
WELL ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE
THE SYSTEM MAY BE RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE NORTHERN GFS
SOLUTION VERIFIES.

THE BLENDED GUIDANCE KEPT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THEN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY IN THE COLD EASTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD RAINS NORTH OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOWS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY.  IF THE
PRECIP SETS UP OVER THE REGION THEN SOME AREAS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE STACKED SYSTEM EAST AND
DRYING OUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF THOUGH
LINGERS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRY GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TNGT INTO THU AM. PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO ISOLD BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE FOUND EARLY THIS
EVE... WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN ANY MODERATE RAIN
WHERE MVFR VSBYS OF 4-5SM POSSIBLE. THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MID EVE INTO THE OVRNGT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOWERS AND SCTD STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS ON THU WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR (VSBYS) AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AROUND OR ABOVE 10 KTS
TNGT INTO THU AM AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITHIN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THU AFTN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 232024
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
324 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER RIDGING THAT RAN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO CANADA WITH A LARGE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED WITH ONE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A SOUTH DAKOTA LOW
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO LOUISIANA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
ELEVATED SHOWERS JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
THESE RETURNS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS IOWA
DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. DO NOT EXPECT READINGS TO RISE
MUCH MORE TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S. STRONG
WAA ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT NEARING THE CWA THURSDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT
AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THURSDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 50S SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
COMPLETELY SATURATE BY 12Z AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IOWA.
THE BEST COVERAGE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM THE MID MORNING TO THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/OMEGAS/MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE THE STRONGEST DURING THIS TIME. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
HALF INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH APPEAR LIKELY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY. THE LATEST NAM/GEM/ECMWF
MODELS ALL SHOW A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH SECTIONS THAT WOULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE MID AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS THE BLOCKED
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT ALL MODELS DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SHOWN BY THE
ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE DETAILS ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW AND AREA OF MAX RAINFALL DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE
SOLUTIONS LEADING TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINER
POINTS OF THE FORECAST.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK THE UPPER TROF THAT/S MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING.  WE SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIVER BEFORE 06Z WITH THE RAIN MOVING WELL EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLEARING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY
MILD DAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.  FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THE 12Z RUNS WERE KEEPING THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
06Z RUNS DEPICTED...SO INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS FOR NORTHWEST IL.

SATURDAY A DEEP MID LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
PUMPING UP MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS SHOULD BRING
ONE MORE MILD AND DRY DAY TO THE REGION.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW IS CLOSED OFF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL SET
UP A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...INTO THE
MIDWEST ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER AIR PATTERN. THIS SHOULD PLACE
THE REGION IN AN AREA OF PROLONGED PERIOD RAINFALL AS THE UPPER AND
SURFACE LOWS TRACKS SLOWLY EAST...STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE IT/S FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER A 48 HOUR OR MORE
PERIOD...THERE/S STILL UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE MAX RAIN AREA WILL SET
UP.  THIS MORNINGS GFS WAS FAVORING SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER WESTERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI.  THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
HAD A RELATIVE MIN IN RAINFALL THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW FEEDING DRY AIR IN FROM EASTERN CANADA.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE REGION REMAINING
WELL ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE
THE SYSTEM MAY BE RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE NORTHERN GFS
SOLUTION VERIFIES.

THE BLENDED GUIDANCE KEPT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THEN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY IN THE COLD EASTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD RAINS NORTH OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOWS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY.  IF THE
PRECIP SETS UP OVER THE REGION THEN SOME AREAS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE UPPER 30S.

THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE STACKED SYSTEM EAST AND
DRYING OUT THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF THOUGH
LINGERS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRY GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH BASED CLOUDS GENERALLY ABV 9KFT TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.
WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT UNDER 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KTS AT THE CID
TERMINAL IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EAST.
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 10Z/24 ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS IN RAIN.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...GROSS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231759
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1259 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 7 AM WE LET THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE. A PRODUCT WAS NOT SENT
OUT...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS IS WHAT OCCURRED. OTHERWISE...A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THUS FAR IT SEEMS TO
FIT THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH MANY SPOTS
SEEING A SHOWER...BUT LESSER SEEING ACTUAL MEASURABLE SHOWERS.

ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WHAT STARTED OUT AS A QUIET...CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT...IS NOW
TRANSITIONING INTO A MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY MORNING AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ON THE
NOSE OF THE LEAD WAA NEAR THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. TO THE
WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...THERE HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TAKING PLACE EARLY
TODAY. THIS PROCESS WILL MAKE A MOVE TOWARD OUR CWA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES RANGE EARLY TODAY FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE UPPER
40S WEST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE FROST ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH 12Z.
ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH LITTLE DOUBT...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS NICE AS YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE MORNING...LEADING
TO MUCH LESS HEATING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. AN EAST WIND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE WEST WHERE THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH TIGHTER...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH. THE
EASTERN 1/2 SHOULD BE MORE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EAST. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE STRONGER EAST WINDS TONIGHT...IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN FROM ELEVATED SHOWERS REMAINS LOWER
THAN NORMAL TODAY. I DO BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SHOWER AT
SOME POINT...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVELS...WE
WILL NEED TO SEE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHOWERS TO BE ABLE TO MEASURE.
THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE NORTH 1/2 THOUGH A SHOWER COULD
MEASURE ANYWHERE GIVEN THE ROBUST WAA ALOFT.  THIS SAME PROCESS
CONTINUES TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHWARD OF ANY WAA BAND.
THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SHOW STILL
OVER CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TOWARD LATE NIGHT WEST...BUT NOT ANYTHING TOO HEAVY. I AM THINKING
OVERNIGHT QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY 0.25 OR LESS AND CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN 1/3.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH THE LIGHT PCPN
AND DRY LOW LEVELS WETBULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SEEM LIKELY IN THE
NORTH...WITH THE DRIER AND CLOUDY SOUTH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 50.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVES THE AREA FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AT
SUNRISE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SLOWLY ENDING FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEARING SKIES.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY ON...
THE SCENARIO OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IS THE ONLY THING THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENTS ON WHEN AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW FORMS.
THESE DISAGREEMENTS PLAY CONSIDERABLY INTO HOW THE DAILY SENSIBLE
WEATHER EVOLVES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIKELY POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH BASED CLOUDS GENERALLY ABV 9KFT TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.
WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT UNDER 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 KTS AT THE CID
TERMINAL IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EAST.
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 10Z/24 ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS IN RAIN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GROSS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231237
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
737 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 7 AM WE LET THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE. A PRODUCT WAS NOT SENT
OUT...BUT NONE THE LESS THIS IS WHAT OCCURRED. OTHERWISE...A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MISSOURI
VALLEY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THUS FAR IT SEEMS TO
FIT THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH MANY SPOTS
SEEING A SHOWER...BUT LESSER SEEING ACTUAL MEASURABLE SHOWERS.

ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WHAT STARTED OUT AS A QUIET...CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT...IS NOW
TRANSITIONING INTO A MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY MORNING AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ON THE
NOSE OF THE LEAD WAA NEAR THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. TO THE
WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...THERE HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TAKING PLACE EARLY
TODAY. THIS PROCESS WILL MAKE A MOVE TOWARD OUR CWA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES RANGE EARLY TODAY FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE UPPER
40S WEST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE FROST ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH 12Z.
ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH LITTLE DOUBT...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS NICE AS YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE MORNING...LEADING
TO MUCH LESS HEATING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. AN EAST WIND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE WEST WHERE THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH TIGHTER...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH. THE
EASTERN 1/2 SHOULD BE MORE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EAST. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE STRONGER EAST WINDS TONIGHT...IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN FROM ELEVATED SHOWERS REMAINS LOWER
THAN NORMAL TODAY. I DO BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SHOWER AT
SOME POINT...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVELS...WE
WILL NEED TO SEE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHOWERS TO BE ABLE TO MEASURE.
THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE NORTH 1/2 THOUGH A SHOWER COULD
MEASURE ANYWHERE GIVEN THE ROBUST WAA ALOFT.  THIS SAME PROCESS
CONTINUES TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHWARD OF ANY WAA BAND.
THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SHOW STILL
OVER CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TOWARD LATE NIGHT WEST...BUT NOT ANYTHING TOO HEAVY. I AM THINKING
OVERNIGHT QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY 0.25 OR LESS AND CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN 1/3.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH THE LIGHT PCPN
AND DRY LOW LEVELS WETBULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SEEM LIKELY IN THE
NORTH...WITH THE DRIER AND CLOUDY SOUTH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 50.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVES THE AREA FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AT
SUNRISE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SLOWLY ENDING FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEARING SKIES.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY ON...
THE SCENARIO OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IS THE ONLY THING THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENTS ON WHEN AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW FORMS.
THESE DISAGREEMENTS PLAY CONSIDERABLY INTO HOW THE DAILY SENSIBLE
WEATHER EVOLVES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIKELY POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM VERY HIGH BASED CLOUDS. THUS...WHILE BRIEF
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN IOWA
TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY PROVIDING A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING EASTERN IOWA AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE OVER ALL OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 231133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WHAT STARTED OUT AS A QUIET...CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT...IS NOW
TRANSITIONING INTO A MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY MORNING AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ON THE
NOSE OF THE LEAD WAA NEAR THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. TO THE
WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...THERE HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TAKING PLACE EARLY
TODAY. THIS PROCESS WILL MAKE A MOVE TOWARD OUR CWA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES RANGE EARLY TODAY FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE UPPER
40S WEST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE FROST ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH 12Z.
ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH LITTLE DOUBT...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS NICE AS YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE MORNING...LEADING
TO MUCH LESS HEATING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. AN EAST WIND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE WEST WHERE THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH TIGHTER...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH. THE
EASTERN 1/2 SHOULD BE MORE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EAST. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE STRONGER EAST WINDS TONIGHT...IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN FROM ELEVATED SHOWERS REMAINS LOWER
THAN NORMAL TODAY. I DO BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SHOWER AT
SOME POINT...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVELS...WE
WILL NEED TO SEE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHOWERS TO BE ABLE TO MEASURE.
THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE NORTH 1/2 THOUGH A SHOWER COULD
MEASURE ANYWHERE GIVEN THE ROBUST WAA ALOFT.  THIS SAME PROCESS
CONTINUES TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHWARD OF ANY WAA BAND.
THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SHOW STILL
OVER CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TOWARD LATE NIGHT WEST...BUT NOT ANYTHING TOO HEAVY. I AM THINKING
OVERNIGHT QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY 0.25 OR LESS AND CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN 1/3.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH THE LIGHT PCPN
AND DRY LOW LEVELS WETBULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SEEM LIKELY IN THE
NORTH...WITH THE DRIER AND CLOUDY SOUTH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 50.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVES THE AREA FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AT
SUNRISE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SLOWLY ENDING FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEARING SKIES.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY ON...
THE SCENARIO OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IS THE ONLY THING THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENTS ON WHEN AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW FORMS.
THESE DISAGREEMENTS PLAY CONSIDERABLY INTO HOW THE DAILY SENSIBLE
WEATHER EVOLVES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIKELY POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM VERY HIGH BASED CLOUDS. THUS...WHILE BRIEF
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN IOWA
TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY PROVIDING A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING EASTERN IOWA AROUND 09Z
TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE OVER ALL OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 230801
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WHAT STARTED OUT AS A QUIET...CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT...IS NOW
TRANSITIONING INTO A MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY MORNING AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ON THE
NOSE OF THE LEAD WAA NEAR THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. TO THE
WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...THERE HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TAKING PLACE EARLY
TODAY. THIS PROCESS WILL MAKE A MOVE TOWARD OUR CWA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES RANGE EARLY TODAY FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO THE UPPER
40S WEST. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE FROST ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH 12Z.
ERVIN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH LITTLE DOUBT...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS NICE AS YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE MORNING...LEADING
TO MUCH LESS HEATING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. AN EAST WIND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE WEST WHERE THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH TIGHTER...GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH. THE
EASTERN 1/2 SHOULD BE MORE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EAST. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE STRONGER EAST WINDS TONIGHT...IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAIN FROM ELEVATED SHOWERS REMAINS LOWER
THAN NORMAL TODAY. I DO BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SHOWER AT
SOME POINT...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVELS...WE
WILL NEED TO SEE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHOWERS TO BE ABLE TO MEASURE.
THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE NORTH 1/2 THOUGH A SHOWER COULD
MEASURE ANYWHERE GIVEN THE ROBUST WAA ALOFT.  THIS SAME PROCESS
CONTINUES TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHWARD OF ANY WAA BAND.
THE MAIN UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SHOW STILL
OVER CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TOWARD LATE NIGHT WEST...BUT NOT ANYTHING TOO HEAVY. I AM THINKING
OVERNIGHT QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY 0.25 OR LESS AND CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN 1/3.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH THE LIGHT PCPN
AND DRY LOW LEVELS WETBULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S SEEM LIKELY IN THE
NORTH...WITH THE DRIER AND CLOUDY SOUTH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 50.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVES THE AREA FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AT
SUNRISE AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SLOWLY ENDING FROM THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH CLEARING SKIES.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY ON...
THE SCENARIO OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IS THE ONLY THING THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENTS ON WHEN AND WHERE THE UPPER LOW FORMS.
THESE DISAGREEMENTS PLAY CONSIDERABLY INTO HOW THE DAILY SENSIBLE
WEATHER EVOLVES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIKELY POPS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VLY WED AM WITH WINDS BLO 10
KTS SHIFTING FROM N TO E. WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KTS FROM E/SE
ON WED WITH SOME LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI IN STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
HIGH IN OHIO VLY AND LOW PRESSURE EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS.
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO RESULT IN BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WED/WED EVE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE
AFTN/EVE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230440
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET WELL
DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER EASTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST IL. MID CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON AREA FROM CENTRAL IA BUT
SLOWED AS 850 MB RIDGE AXIS ANALYZED OVER WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS GRADUALLY
EAST... BUT MOST OF NW IL WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN NW IL TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE L/M
30S WITH FROST...THUS HAVE ISSUED FROST ADVISORY MUCH OF NW IL WITH
GROWING SEASON FOR AREA PLANTS UNDERWAY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLD COLD
DRAINAGE SITES DROP INTO THE U20S NW IL. MIN TEMPS ELSEWHERE MORE
CHALLENGING AND HINGE ON TIMING OF CLOUDS. TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
SLOWING WITH RISK OF FURTHER DELAY THUS HAVE LOWERED MINS 1-3 DEGS
MANY OTHER LOCATIONS... AND HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST OVER NE
AND ECNTRL IA ADJACENT TO THE ADVISORY. IF ANY DELTA...BELIEVE
COLDER BY 1-3 DEGS WITH POSSIBLY MORE FROST INTO FAR EASTERN IA BUT
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS FOR ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO LOWER MINS 1-3 DEGS ESPECIALLY ALONG/E OF MISSISSIPPI
DUE TO DRY AIR AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. ALSO... ADDED
MENTION OF FROST NORTHWEST IL WHERE SOME MIN TEMPS APPEAR
DESTINED FOR THE LOWER 30S DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS... AND MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY. HAVE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO ADD MENTION OF FROST.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DELIGHTFUL SPRING DAY IN PROGRESS WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND 3 PM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MN TO TX.

WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GULF MOISTURE WAS
COMPLETELY CUT-OFF. THE HONORS GO TO THE KDVN SOUNDING AT 22/12Z
FOR HAVING THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IN THE LOWER 48...
AT JUST 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INLAND INTO THE WEST COAST. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 METERS
WAS NOTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO OUR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE RIVER. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOUT
10 TO 15 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS MAY
DIP TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY...I LIKE THE DEPICTION OF THE SREF MODEL WITH THE NICE WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE CWA. WESTERN GULF MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS BUT ACROSS THE DVN CWA THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE
DUE TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN WITH THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT WAA TYPE PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH MANY EVENTS
THIS SPRING AND THAT WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR IN PLACE...OPTED TO ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY. IF ANY
PCPN DOES FALL IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS...A THETA-E
RIDGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RVR BY EARLY EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES
ENDING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
IN H85 DEW POINTS IN THE 5 TO 10C RANGE ALONG WITH MODEL PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. QPF AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED IN THE THREE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP
TO ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN A STRONG
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AM NOT ANTICIPATING THIS AT THIS
TIME. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE DUE TO RAIN AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

REST OF EXTENDED...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING HOW THE ENERGY IN THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF THROUGH
TUESDAY AND IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE LATEST GFS RUN. AT
THE SURFACE...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT
WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 20 SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS/GEM KEEP IT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MODEL
CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND LEADS TO A COOL REGIME
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THAN
HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 50S WOULD BE TOO LOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES RUN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS. DETAILS AS TO WHAT
PERIODS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FURTHER RESOLVED ONCE
THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND THE PIECES
OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VLY WED AM WITH WINDS BLO 10
KTS SHIFTING FROM N TO E. WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-15 KTS FROM E/SE
ON WED WITH SOME LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI IN STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
HIGH IN OHIO VLY AND LOW PRESSURE EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS.
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO RESULT IN BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WED/WED EVE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE
AFTN/EVE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230253
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
953 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET WELL
DOWN INTO THE 40S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER EASTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST IL. MID CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON AREA FROM CENTRAL IA BUT
SLOWED AS 850 MB RIDGE AXIS ANALYZED OVER WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS GRADUALLY
EAST... BUT MOST OF NW IL WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN NW IL TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE L/M
30S WITH FROST...THUS HAVE ISSUED FROST ADVISORY MUCH OF NW IL WITH
GROWING SEASON FOR AREA PLANTS UNDERWAY. CANT RULE OUT ISOLD COLD
DRAINAGE SITES DROP INTO THE U20S NW IL. MIN TEMPS ELSEWHERE MORE
CHALLENGING AND HINGE ON TIMING OF CLOUDS. TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
SLOWING WITH RISK OF FURTHER DELAY THUS HAVE LOWERED MINS 1-3 DEGS
MANY OTHER LOCATIONS... AND HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST OVER NE
AND ECNTRL IA ADJACENT TO THE ADVISORY. IF ANY DELTA...BELIEVE
COLDER BY 1-3 DEGS WITH POSSIBLY MORE FROST INTO FAR EASTERN IA BUT
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS FOR ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO LOWER MINS 1-3 DEGS ESPECIALLY ALONG/E OF MISSISSIPPI
DUE TO DRY AIR AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. ALSO... ADDED
MENTION OF FROST NORTHWEST IL WHERE SOME MIN TEMPS APPEAR
DESTINED FOR THE LOWER 30S DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS... AND MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY. HAVE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO ADD MENTION OF FROST.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DELIGHTFUL SPRING DAY IN PROGRESS WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND 3 PM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MN TO TX.

WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GULF MOISTURE WAS
COMPLETELY CUT-OFF. THE HONORS GO TO THE KDVN SOUNDING AT 22/12Z
FOR HAVING THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IN THE LOWER 48...
AT JUST 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INLAND INTO THE WEST COAST. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 METERS
WAS NOTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO OUR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE RIVER. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOUT
10 TO 15 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS MAY
DIP TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY...I LIKE THE DEPICTION OF THE SREF MODEL WITH THE NICE WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE CWA. WESTERN GULF MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS BUT ACROSS THE DVN CWA THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE
DUE TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN WITH THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT WAA TYPE PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH MANY EVENTS
THIS SPRING AND THAT WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR IN PLACE...OPTED TO ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY. IF ANY
PCPN DOES FALL IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS...A THETA-E
RIDGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RVR BY EARLY EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES
ENDING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
IN H85 DEW POINTS IN THE 5 TO 10C RANGE ALONG WITH MODEL PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. QPF AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED IN THE THREE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP
TO ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN A STRONG
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AM NOT ANTICIPATING THIS AT THIS
TIME. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE DUE TO RAIN AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

REST OF EXTENDED...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING HOW THE ENERGY IN THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF THROUGH
TUESDAY AND IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE LATEST GFS RUN. AT
THE SURFACE...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT
WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 20 SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS/GEM KEEP IT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MODEL
CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND LEADS TO A COOL REGIME
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THAN
HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 50S WOULD BE TOO LOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES RUN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS. DETAILS AS TO WHAT
PERIODS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FURTHER RESOLVED ONCE
THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND THE PIECES
OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AM WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BLO 10 KTS WHILE SHIFTING FROM N TO E. WINDS THEN
WILL INCREASE 10-15 KTS FROM SE ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE OHIO VLY. ENSUING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO RESULT IN BKN-OVC
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ON WED...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE PM
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-PUTNAM-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 230103
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
803 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED TO LOWER MINS 1-3 DEGS ESPECIALLY ALONG/E OF MISSISSIPPI
DUE TO DRY AIR AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. ALSO... ADDED
MENTION OF FROST NORTHWEST IL WHERE SOME MIN TEMPS APPEAR
DESTINED FOR THE LOWER 30S DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS... AND MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY. HAVE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK TO ADD MENTION OF FROST.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DELIGHTFUL SPRING DAY IN PROGRESS WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND 3 PM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MN TO TX.

WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GULF MOISTURE WAS
COMPLETELY CUT-OFF. THE HONORS GO TO THE KDVN SOUNDING AT 22/12Z
FOR HAVING THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IN THE LOWER 48...
AT JUST 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INLAND INTO THE WEST COAST. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 METERS
WAS NOTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO OUR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE RIVER. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOUT
10 TO 15 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS MAY
DIP TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY...I LIKE THE DEPICTION OF THE SREF MODEL WITH THE NICE WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE CWA. WESTERN GULF MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS BUT ACROSS THE DVN CWA THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE
DUE TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN WITH THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT WAA TYPE PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH MANY EVENTS
THIS SPRING AND THAT WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR IN PLACE...OPTED TO ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY. IF ANY
PCPN DOES FALL IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS...A THETA-E
RIDGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RVR BY EARLY EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES
ENDING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
IN H85 DEW POINTS IN THE 5 TO 10C RANGE ALONG WITH MODEL PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. QPF AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED IN THE THREE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP
TO ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN A STRONG
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AM NOT ANTICIPATING THIS AT THIS
TIME. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE DUE TO RAIN AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

REST OF EXTENDED...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING HOW THE ENERGY IN THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF THROUGH
TUESDAY AND IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE LATEST GFS RUN. AT
THE SURFACE...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT
WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 20 SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS/GEM KEEP IT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MODEL
CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND LEADS TO A COOL REGIME
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THAN
HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 50S WOULD BE TOO LOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES RUN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS. DETAILS AS TO WHAT
PERIODS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FURTHER RESOLVED ONCE
THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND THE PIECES
OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AM WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BLO 10 KTS WHILE SHIFTING FROM N TO E. WINDS THEN
WILL INCREASE 10-15 KTS FROM SE ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE OHIO VLY. ENSUING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO RESULT IN BKN-OVC
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ON WED...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE PM
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 222339
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
639 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DELIGHTFUL SPRING DAY IN PROGRESS WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND 3 PM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MN TO TX.

WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GULF MOISTURE WAS
COMPLETELY CUT-OFF. THE HONORS GO TO THE KDVN SOUNDING AT 22/12Z
FOR HAVING THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IN THE LOWER 48...
AT JUST 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INLAND INTO THE WEST COAST. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 METERS
WAS NOTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO OUR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE RIVER. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOUT
10 TO 15 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS MAY
DIP TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY...I LIKE THE DEPICTION OF THE SREF MODEL WITH THE NICE WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE CWA. WESTERN GULF MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS BUT ACROSS THE DVN CWA THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE
DUE TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN WITH THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT WAA TYPE PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH MANY EVENTS
THIS SPRING AND THAT WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR IN PLACE...OPTED TO ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY. IF ANY
PCPN DOES FALL IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS...A THETA-E
RIDGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RVR BY EARLY EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES
ENDING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
IN H85 DEW POINTS IN THE 5 TO 10C RANGE ALONG WITH MODEL PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. QPF AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED IN THE THREE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP
TO ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN A STRONG
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AM NOT ANTICIPATING THIS AT THIS
TIME. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE DUE TO RAIN AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

REST OF EXTENDED...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING HOW THE ENERGY IN THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF THROUGH
TUESDAY AND IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE LATEST GFS RUN. AT
THE SURFACE...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT
WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 20 SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS/GEM KEEP IT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MODEL
CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND LEADS TO A COOL REGIME
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THAN
HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 50S WOULD BE TOO LOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES RUN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS. DETAILS AS TO WHAT
PERIODS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FURTHER RESOLVED ONCE
THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND THE PIECES
OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AM WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BLO 10 KTS WHILE SHIFTING FROM N TO E. WINDS THEN
WILL INCREASE 10-15 KTS FROM SE ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE OHIO VLY. ENSUING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT TO RESULT IN BKN-OVC
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ON WED...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE PM
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 222017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DELIGHTFUL SPRING DAY IN PROGRESS WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND 3 PM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING OCCASIONALLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM MN TO TX.

WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GULF MOISTURE WAS
COMPLETELY CUT-OFF. THE HONORS GO TO THE KDVN SOUNDING AT 22/12Z
FOR HAVING THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IN THE LOWER 48...
AT JUST 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INLAND INTO THE WEST COAST. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 METERS
WAS NOTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO OUR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE RIVER. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOUT
10 TO 15 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S WEST. A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS MAY
DIP TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY...I LIKE THE DEPICTION OF THE SREF MODEL WITH THE NICE WARM
ADVECTION WING OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE CWA. WESTERN GULF MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS BUT ACROSS THE DVN CWA THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. I WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE
DUE TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE MODEL DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN WITH THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT WAA TYPE PRECIP TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH MANY EVENTS
THIS SPRING AND THAT WE WILL HAVE DRY AIR IN PLACE...OPTED TO ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WORDING BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY. IF ANY
PCPN DOES FALL IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS...A THETA-E
RIDGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALL SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST OVER THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RVR BY EARLY EVENING WITH PCPN CHANCES
ENDING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
IN H85 DEW POINTS IN THE 5 TO 10C RANGE ALONG WITH MODEL PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. QPF AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED IN THE THREE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP
TO ALLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN A STRONG
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AM NOT ANTICIPATING THIS AT THIS
TIME. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE DUE TO RAIN AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

REST OF EXTENDED...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING HOW THE ENERGY IN THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF THROUGH
TUESDAY AND IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE LATEST GFS RUN. AT
THE SURFACE...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT
WHERE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 20 SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS/GEM KEEP IT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MODEL
CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND LEADS TO A COOL REGIME
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THAN
HIGHS THAT ARE FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 50S WOULD BE TOO LOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES RUN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS. DETAILS AS TO WHAT
PERIODS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FURTHER RESOLVED ONCE
THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND THE PIECES
OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SKC THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CIGS AT 10K FT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. THEN WINDS VEERING NORTHEAST LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...HAASE














000
FXUS63 KDVN 221731
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DELIGHTFUL SPRING DAY IN PROGRESS WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND NOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING OCCASIONALLY
TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MN TO TX.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET FOR THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE ADVANCES INTO THE DVN CWA.

WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GULF MOISTURE WAS
COMPLETELY CUT-OFF. THE HONORS GO TO THE KDVN SOUNDING AT 22/12Z
FOR HAVING THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IN THE LOWER 48...
AT JUST 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INLAND INTO THE WEST COAST. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 METERS
WAS NOTED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY. CLEAR SKIES...NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN. DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH
SUNRISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS THE COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MAINTAIN A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 20 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...AS LONG AS YOU ARE IN THE
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S VIA MIXING
TO 850MB OR SO WILL BE VERY PLEASANT. IN THE SHADE...A JACKET COULD
BE NEEDED WITH THE CONSISTENT BREEZE/CHILL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. I EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED
LOWS IN THE ROCK RIVER AND WAPSI VALLEYS TO DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID
30S...BUT IN GENERAL THIS NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30 EAST TO
LOWER 40S WEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE IN TO
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF WHEN STRONGER FORCING MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE INITIAL FORCING MOVES INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE
EVENING. SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AND MAY BE FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND STRONGER
FORCING BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SO NEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRIDAY ON...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHAT THE MODELS
LOOSELY AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW. THE
DISAGREEMENTS ARE TO HOW STRONG...WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW IT
WILL MOVE OVER TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY HAS DRY OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME FRAME MUCH HIGHER
POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SKC THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
CIGS AT 10K FT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCNL GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 221115
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
615 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY. CLEAR SKIES...NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN. DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH
SUNRISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS THE COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MAINTAIN A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 20 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...AS LONG AS YOU ARE IN THE
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S VIA MIXING
TO 850MB OR SO WILL BE VERY PLEASANT. IN THE SHADE...A JACKET COULD
BE NEEDED WITH THE CONSISTENT BREEZE/CHILL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. I EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED
LOWS IN THE ROCK RIVER AND WAPSI VALLEYS TO DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID
30S...BUT IN GENERAL THIS NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30 EAST TO
LOWER 40S WEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE IN TO
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF WHEN STRONGER FORCING MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE INITIAL FORCING MOVES INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE
EVENING. SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AND MAY BE FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND STRONGER
FORCING BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SO NEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRIDAY ON...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHAT THE MODELS
LOOSELY AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW. THE
DISAGREEMENTS ARE TO HOW STRONG...WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW IT
WILL MOVE OVER TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY HAS DRY OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME FRAME MUCH HIGHER
POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO IOWA WILL BRING NORTH WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 24 KTS WILL BLOW
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO THE
EAST. LATE TONIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO
IOWA...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220809
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY. CLEAR SKIES...NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN. DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH
SUNRISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS THE COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MAINTAIN A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 20 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...AS LONG AS YOU ARE IN THE
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S VIA MIXING
TO 850MB OR SO WILL BE VERY PLEASANT. IN THE SHADE...A JACKET COULD
BE NEEDED WITH THE CONSISTENT BREEZE/CHILL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. I EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED
LOWS IN THE ROCK RIVER AND WAPSI VALLEYS TO DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID
30S...BUT IN GENERAL THIS NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30 EAST TO
LOWER 40S WEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE IN TO
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF WHEN STRONGER FORCING MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE INITIAL FORCING MOVES INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE
EVENING. SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AND MAY BE FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND STRONGER
FORCING BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SO NEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRIDAY ON...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHAT THE MODELS
LOOSELY AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW. THE
DISAGREEMENTS ARE TO HOW STRONG...WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW IT
WILL MOVE OVER TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY HAS DRY OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME FRAME MUCH HIGHER
POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDS WITH SKC THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220349
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE CWA
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH OUR FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED ACROSS OUR NW HALF AND I MIGHT ADD RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN
IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER UNTIL
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA WITH PRESSURE
RISES OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THE FRONT A LINE OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS/ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. VERY
PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER IS IN STORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND CLOUD PATTERN ON THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE
LOOP WERE INDICATING THE MAIN INCOMING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL WI...THROUGH NORTHEASTERN INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA...AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SECONDARY COLD PUSH NOTED BEHIND THAT ONE
PLUNGING DOWN THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MN. ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD/ALONG
THE FRONT INTO ADEQUATE AFTERNOON DIURNALLY ADJUSTED MUCAPES TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FESTERING ACRS EASTERN IA INTO IL. A
FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. CANADIAN SFC HIGH NOTED
NOSING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH EYES ON SHIFTING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
JUST POST-FRONTAL POSITIONING OUT OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z OR SO...MOST GONE BY 01Z. THEN EXPECT CLEARING AND AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 02Z...
WITH SOME ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISE ENHANCEMENT IN INCOMING RIDGE
GRADIENT TO MAKE FOR SOME TEMPORARY GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. LLVL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE ON...AS WELL AS DRIER/LOWER SFC DPTS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH
EVEN SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. WOULD BE
COLDER IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE WINDS AND INHERENT MIXING MAINTAINING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING IN INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

TUESDAY...INCOMING CANADIAN RIDGE SLATED TO ENGULF THE MID AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH LEE-SIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL LINGERING
ENOUGH FOR MID MORNING NORTHWEST WIND GUST INCREASE...BEFORE WINDS
RELAX AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES OVER
9 C/KM PRODUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...BUT LITTLE AMBIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH OF ANY CU. DEEP MIXING UP TO H85 MB OR EVEN HIGHER
NEEDED TO ATTAIN THE FCST HIGHS FOR TUE WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO OR
JUST UNDER NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE NOW CONSISTENT LATE WEEK SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE
LARGE SCALE MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COOL DRY EASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE RIDGE DEPARTING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S OVER NW MO INTO FAR EASTERN IA....WHILE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS HOLDING A BIT HIGHER SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY
NEARLY ALL MODELS INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TO
PRODUCING QPF DURING THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE A DRY LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LACKING A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL
FOCUSING BOUNDARY....WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE POPS FOR
GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S,

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND THETAE
ADVECTION WILL SETUP ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND
HAVE HIGH END LIKELY POPS FOR WHAT SHOULD A WIDESPREAD LIKELY TO
MODERATE RAIN EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY BREAKS CAN DEVELOP TO ALLOW FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN WITH CLOUDS...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLY LOWER
70S...SIMILAR TO TODAY. LOW CHANCE POPS HANG ON INTO THE THU
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
INTO THE 40S.

A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAJOR LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF NEW ENGLAND THAT HOLDS AN UPSTREAM BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....FLANKED BY A DEEPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THESE FEATURES AND A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY DEVELOPING A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD
BE A COOL REGIME FOR THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN
FROM NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES RUN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG THE MAIN FRONT THAT STALLS TO THE
SOUTH. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE FRONT LAYS OUT...ALONG WITH
HOW MUCH COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.    ..11..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDS WITH SKC THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220249
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
949 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE CWA
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH OUR FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED ACROSS OUR NW HALF AND I MIGHT ADD RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN
IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER UNTIL
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA WITH PRESSURE
RISES OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THE FRONT A LINE OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS/ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. VERY
PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER IS IN STORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND CLOUD PATTERN ON THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE
LOOP WERE INDICATING THE MAIN INCOMING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL WI...THROUGH NORTHEASTERN INTO SOUTHWESTERN IA...AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SECONDARY COLD PUSH NOTED BEHIND THAT ONE
PLUNGING DOWN THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MN. ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD/ALONG
THE FRONT INTO ADEQUATE AFTERNOON DIURNALLY ADJUSTED MUCAPES TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FESTERING ACRS EASTERN IA INTO IL. A
FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. CANADIAN SFC HIGH NOTED
NOSING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH EYES ON SHIFTING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
JUST POST-FRONTAL POSITIONING OUT OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z OR SO...MOST GONE BY 01Z. THEN EXPECT CLEARING AND AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 02Z...
WITH SOME ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISE ENHANCEMENT IN INCOMING RIDGE
GRADIENT TO MAKE FOR SOME TEMPORARY GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. LLVL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE ON...AS WELL AS DRIER/LOWER SFC DPTS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH
EVEN SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. WOULD BE
COLDER IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE WINDS AND INHERENT MIXING MAINTAINING
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING IN INCOMING SFC RIDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

TUESDAY...INCOMING CANADIAN RIDGE SLATED TO ENGULF THE MID AND
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH LEE-SIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL LINGERING
ENOUGH FOR MID MORNING NORTHWEST WIND GUST INCREASE...BEFORE WINDS
RELAX AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES OVER
9 C/KM PRODUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...BUT LITTLE AMBIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE MUCH OF ANY CU. DEEP MIXING UP TO H85 MB OR EVEN HIGHER
NEEDED TO ATTAIN THE FCST HIGHS FOR TUE WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO OR
JUST UNDER NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE NOW CONSISTENT LATE WEEK SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE
LARGE SCALE MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A COOL DRY EASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE RIDGE DEPARTING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S OVER NW MO INTO FAR EASTERN IA....WHILE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
DEWPOINTS HOLDING A BIT HIGHER SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY
NEARLY ALL MODELS INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TO
PRODUCING QPF DURING THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE A DRY LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LACKING A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL
FOCUSING BOUNDARY....WILL KEEP ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE POPS FOR
GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S,

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND THETAE
ADVECTION WILL SETUP ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
TOWARD MORNING. THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND
HAVE HIGH END LIKELY POPS FOR WHAT SHOULD A WIDESPREAD LIKELY TO
MODERATE RAIN EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY BREAKS CAN DEVELOP TO ALLOW FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN WITH CLOUDS...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLY LOWER
70S...SIMILAR TO TODAY. LOW CHANCE POPS HANG ON INTO THE THU
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
INTO THE 40S.

A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAJOR LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF NEW ENGLAND THAT HOLDS AN UPSTREAM BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....FLANKED BY A DEEPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THESE FEATURES AND A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE HIGH OVER CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY DEVELOPING A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD
BE A COOL REGIME FOR THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN
FROM NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES RUN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG THE MAIN FRONT THAT STALLS TO THE
SOUTH. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE FRONT LAYS OUT...ALONG WITH
HOW MUCH COLD AIR SPILLS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.    ..11..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HAASE








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities