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000
FXUS63 KDVN 180437
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT PLAGUED THE CWA THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY ERODED
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR SE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS NOTED ON RADAR/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN SE KS. 3 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA WERE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THAT HAD ALREADY CLEARED SKIES FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA AND NORTHERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...I HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR THIS EVENING IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
WAY TOO DRY EVEN TO SUPPORT SPRINKLES. IN ADDITION...THE DIGGING
TROUGH/FORCING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. IN OUR REGION...MODELS SWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL GO NEAR TO A BIT
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND WILL FORECAST CHILLY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AT INDEPENDENCE TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST. IF WINDS GO CALM FOR A TIME SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A
BIT COLDER READINGS THAN WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS.

FRIDAY...A PLEASANT SPRING DAY ANTICIPATED TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE DRY
AIRMASS AND STRONGER MID APRIL SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE REBOUND
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. I WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THIS
SHOULD BE A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARD A WARM...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE EASTER HOLIDAY. BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE IN A DEVELOPING MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE TO POSSIBLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED POSSIBLY BY A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND
POSSIBLY STORMY WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS DEPARTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR AND LIGHT SE WINDS OUT OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BEFORE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STIR WINDS TOWARD MORNING. SATURDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
LOOKING CONSERVATIVELY AT MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE GULF MOISTURE RETURN REACHING INTO AT LEAST THE
WEST...THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER TO BUFFER THE WARMING SOME.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSION OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF A STRONGER  SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SE COAST. OTHER THAN A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ON THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
REACHING THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH DAYS
NOW LOOK DRY. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING HAS THIS FRONT NOT PUSHING
THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CONCENTRATED.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED...BLOCKY LOOKING PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THE NEXT CYCLONE FORMING
OVER THE PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AND FRIDAY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE...WARM
ADVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE. OUR CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS CHANCES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FURTHER
SLOWING DELAYING THIS BY ANOTHER DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY UNDERGO
FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SETUP INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN WILL THROUGH WI OVERNIGHT CAUSING WINDS OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.   FRIDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THE TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN
LIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...DLF








000
FXUS63 KDVN 172330
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT PLAGUED THE CWA THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY ERODED
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR SE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS NOTED ON RADAR/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN SE KS. 3 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA WERE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THAT HAD ALREADY CLEARED SKIES FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA AND NORTHERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...I HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR THIS EVENING IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
WAY TOO DRY EVEN TO SUPPORT SPRINKLES. IN ADDITION...THE DIGGING
TROUGH/FORCING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. IN OUR REGION...MODELS SWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL GO NEAR TO A BIT
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND WILL FORECAST CHILLY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AT INDEPENDENCE TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST. IF WINDS GO CALM FOR A TIME SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A
BIT COLDER READINGS THAN WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS.

FRIDAY...A PLEASANT SPRING DAY ANTICIPATED TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE DRY
AIRMASS AND STRONGER MID APRIL SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE REBOUND
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. I WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THIS
SHOULD BE A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARD A WARM...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE EASTER HOLIDAY. BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE IN A DEVELOPING MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE TO POSSIBLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED POSSIBLY BY A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND
POSSIBLY STORMY WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS DEPARTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR AND LIGHT SE WINDS OUT OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BEFORE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STIR WINDS TOWARD MORNING. SATURDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
LOOKING CONSERVATIVELY AT MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE GULF MOISTURE RETURN REACHING INTO AT LEAST THE
WEST...THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER TO BUFFER THE WARMING SOME.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSION OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF A STRONGER  SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SE COAST. OTHER THAN A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ON THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
REACHING THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH DAYS
NOW LOOK DRY. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING HAS THIS FRONT NOT PUSHING
THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CONCENTRATED.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED...BLOCKY LOOKING PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THE NEXT CYCLONE FORMING
OVER THE PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AND FRIDAY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE...WARM
ADVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE. OUR CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS CHANCES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FURTHER
SLOWING DELAYING THIS BY ANOTHER DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY UNDERGO
FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SETUP INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MN AND WI OVERNIGHT CAUSING WINDS
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH AND THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER THE TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...DLF








000
FXUS63 KDVN 172005
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT PLAGUED THE CWA THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY ERODED
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR SE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS NOTED ON RADAR/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN SE KS. 3 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA WERE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THAT HAD ALREADY CLEARED SKIES FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IA AND NORTHERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...I HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR THIS EVENING IN OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
WAY TOO DRY EVEN TO SUPPORT SPRINKLES. IN ADDITION...THE DIGGING
TROUGH/FORCING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. IN OUR REGION...MODELS SWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL GO NEAR TO A BIT
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND WILL FORECAST CHILLY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AT INDEPENDENCE TO THE MID 30S
SOUTHEAST. IF WINDS GO CALM FOR A TIME SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A
BIT COLDER READINGS THAN WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS.

FRIDAY...A PLEASANT SPRING DAY ANTICIPATED TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE DRY
AIRMASS AND STRONGER MID APRIL SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE REBOUND
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY. I WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THIS
SHOULD BE A WELCOME CHANGE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARD A WARM...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE EASTER HOLIDAY. BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE IN A DEVELOPING MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE TO POSSIBLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED POSSIBLY BY A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND
POSSIBLY STORMY WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS DEPARTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR AND LIGHT SE WINDS OUT OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BEFORE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STIR WINDS TOWARD MORNING. SATURDAY...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
LOOKING CONSERVATIVELY AT MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE GULF MOISTURE RETURN REACHING INTO AT LEAST THE
WEST...THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER TO BUFFER THE WARMING SOME.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSION OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A THE BLOCKING EFFECTS OF A STRONGER  SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SE COAST. OTHER THAN A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ON THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
REACHING THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH DAYS
NOW LOOK DRY. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN
REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE TIMING OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS MODEL TIMING HAS THIS FRONT NOT PUSHING
THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY...WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CONCENTRATED.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED...BLOCKY LOOKING PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THE NEXT CYCLONE FORMING
OVER THE PLAINS ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THU AND FRIDAY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOIST...UNSTABLE...WARM
ADVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE. OUR CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS CHANCES AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FURTHER
SLOWING DELAYING THIS BY ANOTHER DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY UNDERGO
FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SETUP INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HAASE












000
FXUS63 KDVN 171738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY ERODE
ACROSS THE DVN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TRACKING FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS. ALSO...ENOUGH MIXING TAKING PLACE TO BRING DOWN THE VERY
DRY AIR FROM ALOFT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON
IN OUR NW COUNTIES BUT REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY IN OUR SOUTHEAST...WHERE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER AND ALSO
TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WAS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDWEST.
WITH THE STRONGER MID APRIL SUN THE STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ERODE BY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

IN THE MEANTIME...IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE ADDING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO THE CWA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

1012 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF ROCHESTER MN AT 07Z. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS AND
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. IN WAKE OF THE SFC
CYCLONE... RIDGING WAS BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLNS.
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS
WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT EASTERN CWA BY MIDDAY. PERIOD OF BKN-OVC STRATUS
WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT MANY AREAS ALONG/WEST OF MISSISSIPPI... WITH
STRATUS LIKELY HALTED OR FRAGMENTED HEADING EAST OF QUAD CITIES AS
STRENGTHENING SOLAR INSOLATION GOES TO WORK. STRATUS THEN LIKELY TO
UNDERGO EROSION WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING CYCLONIC
FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WITH LOW CONTINUING TO FILL/WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THOUGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH WHERE ANTICIPATE
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS CWA... MORE OPAQUE
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE DUE TO
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK AT ITS BASE. THESE FEATURES PROGGED TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY AND INTO OHIO VLY BY 12Z FRI. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN TO PEAK THIS EVENING MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
WITH TSECTS SHOWING MEAGER DEEP LAYER RH WITH NORTHERLY DRY ADVECTION IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...CONCERNS IF ANY PCPN WILL BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE AND REACH THE GROUND DESPITE FORCING AND BAROCLINICITY... BUT IF
IT SHOULD MOST LIKELY WOULD BE JUST SPRINKLES FAR SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TDY SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDINESS. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. BUT...IF
MORE SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURS LENDING TO DEEPER MIXING THEN COULD SEE
SEVERAL LOCATIONS HIT 60F OR L60S FROM NEAR QUAD CITIES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ON THE FLIP SIDE...FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO TOUCH 50F IF THE
STRATUS HOLDS ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND INCOMING
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SIDE NEAR COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. CANT RULE FEW DRAINAGE SITES INTO THE U20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASED
SOLAR INSOLATION AND MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM EAST AND THEREFORE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST AND YIELDS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. IF STORM SYSTEM SLOWS EVEN MORE THAN THESE
READINGS MAY BE TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE OVER NW IA AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN SOMEWHAT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN
TO FALL MUCH BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. IF THE
LATEST ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT THEN WE MAY SEE LITTLE PRECIP IN OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST WINDOW FOR SEEING ANY
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY AS FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THIS STORM AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE PERIODS IN WHICH PCPN IS MORE
LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDING TO BE OVER THE AREA WITH A
LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
DEPICT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA TYPE PRECIP AHEAD OF SYSTEM
IN THE ROCKIES MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE UPPER PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING VFR CONDS
WHICH WILL THEN LAST THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE DAKOTAS AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 171439
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
939 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER AND ALSO
TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WAS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDWEST.
WITH THE STRONGER MID APRIL SUN THE STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ERODE BY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

IN THE MEANTIME...IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE ADDING MORE CLOUD
COVER TO THE CWA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

1012 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF ROCHESTER MN AT 07Z. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS AND
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. IN WAKE OF THE SFC
CYCLONE... RIDGING WAS BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLNS.
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS
WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT EASTERN CWA BY MIDDAY. PERIOD OF BKN-OVC STRATUS
WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT MANY AREAS ALONG/WEST OF MISSISSIPPI... WITH
STRATUS LIKELY HALTED OR FRAGMENTED HEADING EAST OF QUAD CITIES AS
STRENGTHENING SOLAR INSOLATION GOES TO WORK. STRATUS THEN LIKELY TO
UNDERGO EROSION WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING CYCLONIC
FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WITH LOW CONTINUING TO FILL/WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THOUGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH WHERE ANTICIPATE
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS CWA... MORE OPAQUE
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE DUE TO
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK AT ITS BASE. THESE FEATURES PROGGED TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY AND INTO OHIO VLY BY 12Z FRI. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN TO PEAK THIS EVENING MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
WITH TSECTS SHOWING MEAGER DEEP LAYER RH WITH NORTHERLY DRY ADVECTION IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...CONCERNS IF ANY PCPN WILL BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE AND REACH THE GROUND DESPITE FORCING AND BAROCLINICITY... BUT IF
IT SHOULD MOST LIKELY WOULD BE JUST SPRINKLES FAR SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TDY SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDINESS. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. BUT...IF
MORE SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURS LENDING TO DEEPER MIXING THEN COULD SEE
SEVERAL LOCATIONS HIT 60F OR L60S FROM NEAR QUAD CITIES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ON THE FLIP SIDE...FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO TOUCH 50F IF THE
STRATUS HOLDS ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND INCOMING
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SIDE NEAR COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. CANT RULE FEW DRAINAGE SITES INTO THE U20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASED
SOLAR INSOLATION AND MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM EAST AND THEREFORE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST AND YIELDS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. IF STORM SYSTEM SLOWS EVEN MORE THAN THESE
READINGS MAY BE TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE OVER NW IA AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN SOMEWHAT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN
TO FALL MUCH BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. IF THE
LATEST ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT THEN WE MAY SEE LITTLE PRECIP IN OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST WINDOW FOR SEEING ANY
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY AS FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THIS STORM AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE PERIODS IN WHICH PCPN IS MORE
LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDING TO BE OVER THE AREA WITH A
LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
DEPICT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA TYPE PRECIP AHEAD OF SYSTEM
IN THE ROCKIES MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE UPPER PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR/LOCAL MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN BECOMING
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...HAASE










000
FXUS63 KDVN 171137
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

1012 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF ROCHESTER MN AT 07Z. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS AND
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. IN WAKE OF THE SFC
CYCLONE... RIDGING WAS BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLNS.
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS
WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT EASTERN CWA BY MIDDAY. PERIOD OF BKN-OVC STRATUS
WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT MANY AREAS ALONG/WEST OF MISSISSIPPI... WITH
STRATUS LIKELY HALTED OR FRAGMENTED HEADING EAST OF QUAD CITIES AS
STRENGTHENING SOLAR INSOLATION GOES TO WORK. STRATUS THEN LIKELY TO
UNDERGO EROSION WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING CYCLONIC
FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WITH LOW CONTINUING TO FILL/WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THOUGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH WHERE ANTICIPATE
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS CWA... MORE OPAQUE
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE DUE TO
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK AT ITS BASE. THESE FEATURES PROGGED TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY AND INTO OHIO VLY BY 12Z FRI. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN TO PEAK THIS EVENING MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
WITH TSECTS SHOWING MEAGER DEEP LAYER RH WITH NORTHERLY DRY ADVECTION IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...CONCERNS IF ANY PCPN WILL BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE AND REACH THE GROUND DESPITE FORCING AND BAROCLINICITY... BUT IF
IT SHOULD MOST LIKELY WOULD BE JUST SPRINKLES FAR SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TDY SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDINESS. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. BUT...IF
MORE SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURS LENDING TO DEEPER MIXING THEN COULD SEE
SEVERAL LOCATIONS HIT 60F OR L60S FROM NEAR QUAD CITIES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ON THE FLIP SIDE...FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO TOUCH 50F IF THE
STRATUS HOLDS ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND INCOMING
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SIDE NEAR COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. CANT RULE FEW DRAINAGE SITES INTO THE U20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASED
SOLAR INSOLATION AND MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM EAST AND THEREFORE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST AND YIELDS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. IF STORM SYSTEM SLOWS EVEN MORE THAN THESE
READINGS MAY BE TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE OVER NW IA AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN SOMEWHAT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN
TO FALL MUCH BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. IF THE
LATEST ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT THEN WE MAY SEE LITTLE PRECIP IN OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST WINDOW FOR SEEING ANY
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY AS FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THIS STORM AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE PERIODS IN WHICH PCPN IS MORE
LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDING TO BE OVER THE AREA WITH A
LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
DEPICT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA TYPE PRECIP AHEAD OF SYSTEM
IN THE ROCKIES MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE UPPER PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

STRATUS WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANTICIPATE THE STRATUS TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP/ERODE FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FRONT...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
WILL BRING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWER CHANCES
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI AND KBRL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
LATER TONIGHT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 170902
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

1012 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF ROCHESTER MN AT 07Z. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CWA ACCOMPANIED BY STRATUS AND
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. IN WAKE OF THE SFC
CYCLONE... RIDGING WAS BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLNS.
PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS
WITH WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXIT EASTERN CWA BY MIDDAY. PERIOD OF BKN-OVC STRATUS
WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT MANY AREAS ALONG/WEST OF MISSISSIPPI... WITH
STRATUS LIKELY HALTED OR FRAGMENTED HEADING EAST OF QUAD CITIES AS
STRENGTHENING SOLAR INSOLATION GOES TO WORK. STRATUS THEN LIKELY TO
UNDERGO EROSION WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING CYCLONIC
FLOW/COLD ADVECTION WITH LOW CONTINUING TO FILL/WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THOUGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH WHERE ANTICIPATE
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS CWA... MORE OPAQUE
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVE DUE TO
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT JET STREAK AT ITS BASE. THESE FEATURES PROGGED TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VLY AND INTO OHIO VLY BY 12Z FRI. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN TO PEAK THIS EVENING MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET. SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
WITH TSECTS SHOWING MEAGER DEEP LAYER RH WITH NORTHERLY DRY ADVECTION IN
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...CONCERNS IF ANY PCPN WILL BE ABLE TO
SURVIVE AND REACH THE GROUND DESPITE FORCING AND BAROCLINICITY... BUT IF
IT SHOULD MOST LIKELY WOULD BE JUST SPRINKLES FAR SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING.

HIGHS TDY SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF THE CWA WITH
CLOUDINESS. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. BUT...IF
MORE SOLAR INSOLATION OCCURS LENDING TO DEEPER MIXING THEN COULD SEE
SEVERAL LOCATIONS HIT 60F OR L60S FROM NEAR QUAD CITIES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ON THE FLIP SIDE...FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD STRUGGLE TO TOUCH 50F IF THE
STRATUS HOLDS ON LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND INCOMING
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SIDE NEAR COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. CANT RULE FEW DRAINAGE SITES INTO THE U20S NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY-MONDAY.

FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASED
SOLAR INSOLATION AND MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM EAST AND THEREFORE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY. DEEP MIXING IS FORECAST AND YIELDS HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. IF STORM SYSTEM SLOWS EVEN MORE THAN THESE
READINGS MAY BE TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE OVER NW IA AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN SOMEWHAT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN
TO FALL MUCH BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. IF THE
LATEST ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT THEN WE MAY SEE LITTLE PRECIP IN OUR
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST WINDOW FOR SEEING ANY
PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY AS FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN THIS TIME FRAME. MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THIS STORM AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE PERIODS IN WHICH PCPN IS MORE
LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDING TO BE OVER THE AREA WITH A
LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
DEPICT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE WEDNESDAY WHERE MODELS SHOW WAA TYPE PRECIP AHEAD OF SYSTEM
IN THE ROCKIES MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE UPPER PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KCID AND WILL PASS THROUGH REST OF THE
TERMINALS BY MID AM. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING SHIFT IN GUSTY
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. STRATUS WITH MVFR TO POCKETS OF
IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EASTERN IA EARLY THIS AM. KBRL AND
KMLI LOOK TO BE ON EASTERN FRINGE OF LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE
CLEARING TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN BRINGING LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 170438
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR EVEN A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
OF OBSERVATION SITES HAVE JUST MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO THE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 44 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

SURFACE CYCLONE IN EXTREME NW IA CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH
ISALLABARIC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS IN SW WI. IR
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A CLASSIC MATURE COMMA HEAD SHAPE TO THIS
MID LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG VORT
MAX WAS NOTED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM AND MOSTLY IN THE FORM
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.

IN THE WARM SECTOR THE AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY THANKS TO A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S ALL THE
WAY FROM IA TO TX. THERE WAS ALSO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE WEAKENING/OCCLUDED CYCLONE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MESO
MODELS ARW/NMM INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
PUSHING INTO EASTERN IA LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO PVA ARRIVING. HOWEVER...
THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO FALL APART OF IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MS
RIVER DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT LITTLE RAIN DOES MANAGE TO
REACH THE GROUND SHOULD ONLY BE A TRACE TO .01 OF AN INCH. WITH
SOUTH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN MILDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT. I WILL FORECAST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE GRIDS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE STRONG VORT MAX.

THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AT
LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THERE SHOULD BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT IN MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD MAY TAP INTO
THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER MO INTO CENTRAL IL. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AND AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MN WILL LEAD TO LOWS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
FAR SOUTH UNDER CLEARING SKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AND MILD DAY AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MIXING PRECEDES THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN MODEST MIXING INTO THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10 DEG C WOULD BOOST
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 70S. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAY STILL NEED FURTHER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAKENING LOW IS DEPICTED PASSING
TO THE NORTH...LAYING OUT A SLOW MOVING FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THAT WOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
PART WAYS IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES AND HOW THEY PHASE IN THE
SPLIT FLOW. GFS LATEST DRIVES THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP IT OVER IA INTO SOUTHERN
WI...SUGGESTING AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WELL
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
GULF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON THE
FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST LEANS MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO REAL DUMP OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE A WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MUCH STRONGER...MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM SHOWING UP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LLWS AROUND
THE FROPA TIME. MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING WINDS AROUND 15HND
FT INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KTS OVERNIGHT. IF SURFACE WINDS DIE OFF
MORE THAN EXPECTED...THEN THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE. LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO...SO THE MENTION OF PRECIP WAS REMOVED FROM THE
TAFS FOR EARLY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BASES AROUND 2KFT AFFECTING MAINLY KCID AND
KDBQ FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...DLF








000
FXUS63 KDVN 170014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
714 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR EVEN A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
OF OBSERVATION SITES HAVE JUST MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO THE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 44 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDIY REMAINS ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

SURFACE CYCLONE IN EXTREME NW IA CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH
ISALLABARIC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS IN SW WI. IR
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A CLASSIC MATURE COMMA HEAD SHAPE TO THIS
MID LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG VORT
MAX WAS NOTED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM AND MOSTLY IN THE FORM
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.

IN THE WARM SECTOR THE AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY THANKS TO A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S ALL THE
WAY FROM IA TO TX. THERE WAS ALSO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE WEAKENING/OCCLUDED CYCLONE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MESO
MODELS ARW/NMM INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
PUSHING INTO EASTERN IA LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO PVA ARRIVING. HOWEVER...
THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO FALL APART OF IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MS
RIVER DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT LITTLE RAIN DOES MANAGE TO
REACH THE GROUND SHOULD ONLY BE A TRACE TO .01 OF AN INCH. WITH
SOUTH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN MILDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT. I WILL FORECAST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE GRIDS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE STRONG VORT MAX.

THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AT
LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THERE SHOULD BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT IN MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD MAY TAP INTO
THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER MO INTO CENTRAL IL. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AND AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MN WILL LEAD TO LOWS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
FAR SOUTH UNDER CLEARING SKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AND MILD DAY AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MIXING PRECEDES THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN MODEST MIXING INTO THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10 DEG C WOULD BOOST
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 70S. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAY STILL NEED FURTHER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAKENING LOW IS DEPICTED PASSING
TO THE NORTH...LAYING OUT A SLOW MOVING FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THAT WOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
PART WAYS IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES AND HOW THEY PHASE IN THE
SPLIT FLOW. GFS LATEST DRIVES THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP IT OVER IA INTO SOUTHERN
WI...SUGGESTING AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WELL
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
GULF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON THE
FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST LEANS MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO REAL DUMP OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE A WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MUCH STRONGER...MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM SHOWING UP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE
LOW EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST AND SHOULD STAY NORTH
OF MOST OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES CAN/T BE RULED
OUT LATE THIS EVENING A KCID AND KDBQ. CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
BE AOA 8KFT. WITH THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT AROUND 10KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
MVFR CIGS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BASES AROUND 2KFT AFFECTING
MAINLY KCID AND KDBQ. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THURSDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...DLF








000
FXUS63 KDVN 162002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR EVEN A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE
OF OBSERVATION SITES HAVE JUST MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO THE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 44 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDIY REMAINS ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

SURFACE CYCLONE IN EXTREME NW IA CONTINUES TO FILL/WEAKEN WITH
ISALLABARIC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS IN SW WI. IR
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A CLASSIC MATURE COMMA HEAD SHAPE TO THIS
MID LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG VORT
MAX WAS NOTED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEB. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM AND MOSTLY IN THE FORM
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.

IN THE WARM SECTOR THE AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY THANKS TO A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S ALL THE
WAY FROM IA TO TX. THERE WAS ALSO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE WEAKENING/OCCLUDED CYCLONE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MESO
MODELS ARW/NMM INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
PUSHING INTO EASTERN IA LATER THIS EVENING DUE TO PVA ARRIVING. HOWEVER...
THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO FALL APART OF IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MS
RIVER DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. WHAT LITTLE RAIN DOES MANAGE TO
REACH THE GROUND SHOULD ONLY BE A TRACE TO .01 OF AN INCH. WITH
SOUTH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN MILDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT. I WILL FORECAST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE GRIDS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE STRONG VORT MAX.

THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AT
LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. THERE SHOULD BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT IN MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHERE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD MAY TAP INTO
THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER MO INTO CENTRAL IL. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AND AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MN WILL LEAD TO LOWS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
FAR SOUTH UNDER CLEARING SKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AND MILD DAY AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MIXING PRECEDES THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN MODEST MIXING INTO THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 10 DEG C WOULD BOOST
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 70S. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAY STILL NEED FURTHER UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAKENING LOW IS DEPICTED PASSING
TO THE NORTH...LAYING OUT A SLOW MOVING FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THAT WOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
PART WAYS IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVES AND HOW THEY PHASE IN THE
SPLIT FLOW. GFS LATEST DRIVES THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP IT OVER IA INTO SOUTHERN
WI...SUGGESTING AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WELL
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
GULF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON THE
FRONTAL LOCATION AND TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST LEANS MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO REAL DUMP OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO
PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE A WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MUCH STRONGER...MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM SHOWING UP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO
28 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 38 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 161739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR EVEN A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FILL/WEAKEN WITH ISALLABARIC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BEST PRESSURE
FALLS IN SW WI. IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A CLASSIC MATURE COMMA
HEAD SHAPE TO THIS MID LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A STRONG VORT MAX WAS NOTED IN NORTHEAST NEB. ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM AND MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.

IN THE WARM SECTOR THE AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ALL THE WAY FROM
IA TO TX. THERE WAS ALSO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO WI THIS EVENING THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

MESO MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN IA THIS EVENING AS PVA SWEEPS THROUGH...BUT
WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE DRY LOW LEVELS WIN
THE BATTLE.

FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE ON TARGET SO
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.

SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.

VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.

STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...HAASE
FIRE WEATHER...05










000
FXUS63 KDVN 161149
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.

SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.

VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.

STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED 14Z-17Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POTENTIAL UNTIL WINDS INCREASE MID MORNING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL PER NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE TERMINALS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
IA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EVENING BEFORE VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 160918
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.

SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.

VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.

STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS ARE EXPECTED 12Z-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASE TO 40 TO
50KTS. SINCE THE INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL BE GRADUAL AND
WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE KCID VICINITY JUST BEFORE 06Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 160441
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN TX TO WI WAS
PRODUCING AN EARLY MARCH-LIKE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A BROAD NW
FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW
OVER ID AND WESTERN MT. LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MT. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MIGRATE
E-SE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHERN IA WED NIGHT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WELL IN ADVANCE
WILL CREATE WINDY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CRITICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO
THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE PLAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...WILL BE COUNTING ON THE HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
EVEN FURTHER.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF MODEL INDICATED 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 KTS ARE
CORRECT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND
THE ANTICIPATED THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
MIXING AND INTENSITY OF WIND GUSTS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION...HOWEVER...IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS AND MIXING TO 850 MB TO 800
MB WOULD ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER
LARGE UNCERTAINTY...CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER...IS THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR HANDLE ON
MOISTURE AND MIXING IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS THIS SPRING...AND
CURRENTLY SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S FOR TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS HAS AGAIN MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...RH VALUES MAY BE LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...AS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCLUDING/WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

THIS WEEKEND...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODIFIED
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL PULL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
DVN CWA. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS ARE EXPECTED 12Z-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASE TO 40 TO
50KTS. SINCE THE INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL BE GRADUAL AND
WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE KCID VICINITY JUST BEFORE 06Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EASTERN IA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY AS
LOW AS THE TEENS AND 20S BY AFTERNOON. IF THESE LOWER VALUES ARE
REACHED...IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX VALUES. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY
HIGH OVER DRY GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INDEED DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
WEDNESDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...11








000
FXUS63 KDVN 152314
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN TX TO WI WAS
PRODUCING AN EARLY MARCH-LIKE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A BROAD NW
FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW
OVER ID AND WESTERN MT. LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MT. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MIGRATE
E-SE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHERN IA WED NIGHT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WELL IN ADVANCE
WILL CREATE WINDY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CRITICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO
THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE PLAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...WILL BE COUNTING ON THE HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
EVEN FURTHER.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF MODEL INDICATED 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 KTS ARE
CORRECT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND
THE ANTICIPATED THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
MIXING AND INTENSITY OF WIND GUSTS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION...HOWEVER...IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS AND MIXING TO 850 MB TO 800
MB WOULD ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER
LARGE UNCERTAINTY...CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER...IS THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR HANDLE ON
MOISTURE AND MIXING IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS THIS SPRING...AND
CURRENTLY SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S FOR TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS HAS AGAIN MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...RH VALUES MAY BE LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...AS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCLUDING/WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

THIS WEEKEND...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODIFIED
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL PULL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
DVN CWA. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS ARE EXPECTED 12Z-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASE TO 40 TO
50KTS. SINCE THE INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL BE GRADUAL AND
WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND DRY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EASTERN IA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY AS
LOW AS THE TEENS AND 20S BY AFTERNOON. IF THESE LOWER VALUES ARE
REACHED...IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX VALUES. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY
HIGH OVER DRY GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INDEED DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
WEDNESDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...11








000
FXUS63 KDVN 152040
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN TX TO WI WAS
PRODUCING AN EARLY MARCH-LIKE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A BROAD NW
FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW
OVER ID AND WESTERN MT. LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MT. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MIGRATE
E-SE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHERN IA WED NIGHT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WELL IN ADVANCE
WILL CREATE WINDY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CRITICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO
THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE PLAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...WILL BE COUNTING ON THE HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
EVEN FURTHER.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF MODEL INDICATED 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 KTS ARE
CORRECT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND
THE ANTICIPATED THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
MIXING AND INTENSITY OF WIND GUSTS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION...HOWEVER...IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS AND MIXING TO 850 MB TO 800
MB WOULD ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER
LARGE UNCERTAINTY...CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER...IS THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR HANDLE ON
MOISTURE AND MIXING IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS THIS SPRING...AND
CURRENTLY SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S FOR TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS HAS AGAIN MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...RH VALUES MAY BE LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...AS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCLUDING/WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

THIS WEEKEND...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODIFIED
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL PULL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
DVN CWA. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 KTS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP ENOUGH INTERFACE BETWEEN
THESE WINDS AND THOSE AT THE SURFACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF LLWS IN
THE TAFS. BY MID MORNING...WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY FROM 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EASTERN IA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY AS
LOW AS THE TEENS AND 20S BY AFTERNOON. IF THESE LOWER VALUES ARE
REACHED...IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX VALUES. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY
HIGH OVER DRY GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INDEED DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
WEDNESDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11








000
FXUS63 KDVN 151745
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A WINTER-LIKE AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WAS KEEPING
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. AT NOON...READINGS WERE
STRUGGLING JUST TO REACH 32 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THE
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING FLURRIES...AS
REPORTED AT ROCKFORD.

DESPITE THE CU FIELD THINNING AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...THE VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 DEG C OR LOWER AT
12Z WILL LIMIT WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
ANTICIPATION OF DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WITH BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER YSTDY STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL (58-65F). IF CLOUDS PERSIST
THOUGH LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS STAY IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 KTS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP ENOUGH INTERFACE BETWEEN
THESE WINDS AND THOSE AT THE SURFACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF LLWS IN
THE TAFS. BY MID MORNING...WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY FROM 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...11
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...11
CLIMATE...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 151152
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
652 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
ANTICIPATION OF DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WITH BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER YSTDY STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL (58-65F). IF CLOUDS PERSIST
THOUGH LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS STAY IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD EVENING...THEN SWITCH TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS IN 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 150837 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
ANTICIPATION OF DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WITH BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER YSTDY STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL (58-65F). IF CLOUDS PERSIST
THOUGH LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS STAY IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
CLIMATE...05










000
FXUS63 KDVN 150834
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH
BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER YSTDY STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL (58-65F).

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
CLIMATE...05







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