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000
FXUS63 KDVN 070545
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS BECAME TODAYS STRATUS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THUS HOLDING IN INVERSION IN PLACE THERE.
THROUGH 2 PM...TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S...WHILE SITES IN THE SUN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A CHECK
OUT THE DOOR AT THE OFFICE REVEALS...IT IS IN FACT A VERY PLEASANT
DAY IN LOCATIONS WITH SUN. THE HIGHWAY 20 GLOOM IN IOWA MAY LAST
THROUGH SUNSET...THROUGH THE INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH THE EDGE OF CLOUDS NORTH NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND ERODE THROUGH
SUNSET...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. IN FACT...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CAA SPREADING IN AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL HELP
BRING A SEASONALLY MILD NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S OUR WAY...EVEN WITHOUT LOW CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US FROM DECOUPLING
COMPLETELY.

SUNDAY...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY NOT SATURATE UNTIL WELL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY...GUSTY WIND...BUT DEEPLY MIXED AND SEASONALLY MILD DAY TO MOST
OF THE CWA.  ANY FLURRIES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. I HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW...AS THIS IS MUCH MORE OF
DRIFTING SCENARIO WITH WINDS UNDER 30 MPH...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
SNOW TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THAT SNOW MAY...OR MAY
NOT BE COMPACTED ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE DRIFTING. WE WILL FIND OUT
TOMORROW...HELPING MAKE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF A BLOWING THREAT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON VIGOROUS CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OTHERWISE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TAKING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CYCLONE
IN THE GREAT LAKES AND SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUMMET SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH A VERY COLD POCKET AT 500 MB OF ABOUT -30
TO -35C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AND
DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 850 MB WHICH WILL TAP 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS THERE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SOME POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY INTENSE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND MAY CAUSE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. EVEN THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND AN
OR LESS THE STRONG WIND MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ACCURATELY.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. FOR
NOW I WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FAR NW CWA WHERE THE DEEPEST
SNOW COVER CURRENTLY EXISTS. HOWEVER...ANY FRESHLY FALLING SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH MODELS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FOR THE MOST PART MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 062336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS BECAME TODAYS STRATUS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THUS HOLDING IN INVERSION IN PLACE THERE.
THROUGH 2 PM...TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S...WHILE SITES IN THE SUN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A CHECK
OUT THE DOOR AT THE OFFICE REVEALS...IT IS IN FACT A VERY PLEASANT
DAY IN LOCATIONS WITH SUN. THE HIGHWAY 20 GLOOM IN IOWA MAY LAST
THROUGH SUNSET...THROUGH THE INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH THE EDGE OF CLOUDS NORTH NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND ERODE THROUGH
SUNSET...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. IN FACT...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CAA SPREADING IN AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL HELP
BRING A SEASONALLY MILD NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S OUR WAY...EVEN WITHOUT LOW CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US FROM DECOUPLING
COMPLETELY.

SUNDAY...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY NOT SATURATE UNTIL WELL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY...GUSTY WIND...BUT DEEPLY MIXED AND SEASONALLY MILD DAY TO MOST
OF THE CWA.  ANY FLURRIES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. I HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW...AS THIS IS MUCH MORE OF
DRIFTING SCENARIO WITH WINDS UNDER 30 MPH...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
SNOW TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THAT SNOW MAY...OR MAY
NOT BE COMPACTED ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE DRIFTING. WE WILL FIND OUT
TOMORROW...HELPING MAKE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF A BLOWING THREAT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON VIGOROUS CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OTHERWISE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TAKING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CYCLONE
IN THE GREAT LAKES AND SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUMMET SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH A VERY COLD POCKET AT 500 MB OF ABOUT -30
TO -35C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AND
DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 850 MB WHICH WILL TAP 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS THERE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SOME POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY INTENSE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND MAY CAUSE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. EVEN THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND AN
OR LESS THE STRONG WIND MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ACCURATELY.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. FOR
NOW I WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FAR NW CWA WHERE THE DEEPEST
SNOW COVER CURRENTLY EXISTS. HOWEVER...ANY FRESHLY FALLING SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH MODELS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FOR THE MOST PART MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
15-20 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON
SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 062336
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS BECAME TODAYS STRATUS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THUS HOLDING IN INVERSION IN PLACE THERE.
THROUGH 2 PM...TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S...WHILE SITES IN THE SUN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A CHECK
OUT THE DOOR AT THE OFFICE REVEALS...IT IS IN FACT A VERY PLEASANT
DAY IN LOCATIONS WITH SUN. THE HIGHWAY 20 GLOOM IN IOWA MAY LAST
THROUGH SUNSET...THROUGH THE INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH THE EDGE OF CLOUDS NORTH NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND ERODE THROUGH
SUNSET...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. IN FACT...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CAA SPREADING IN AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL HELP
BRING A SEASONALLY MILD NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S OUR WAY...EVEN WITHOUT LOW CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US FROM DECOUPLING
COMPLETELY.

SUNDAY...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY NOT SATURATE UNTIL WELL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY...GUSTY WIND...BUT DEEPLY MIXED AND SEASONALLY MILD DAY TO MOST
OF THE CWA.  ANY FLURRIES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. I HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW...AS THIS IS MUCH MORE OF
DRIFTING SCENARIO WITH WINDS UNDER 30 MPH...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
SNOW TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THAT SNOW MAY...OR MAY
NOT BE COMPACTED ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE DRIFTING. WE WILL FIND OUT
TOMORROW...HELPING MAKE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF A BLOWING THREAT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON VIGOROUS CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OTHERWISE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TAKING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CYCLONE
IN THE GREAT LAKES AND SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUMMET SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH A VERY COLD POCKET AT 500 MB OF ABOUT -30
TO -35C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AND
DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 850 MB WHICH WILL TAP 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS THERE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SOME POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY INTENSE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND MAY CAUSE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. EVEN THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND AN
OR LESS THE STRONG WIND MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ACCURATELY.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. FOR
NOW I WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FAR NW CWA WHERE THE DEEPEST
SNOW COVER CURRENTLY EXISTS. HOWEVER...ANY FRESHLY FALLING SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH MODELS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FOR THE MOST PART MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
15-20 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON
SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 062056
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS BECAME TODAYS STRATUS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THUS HOLDING IN INVERSION IN PLACE THERE.
THROUGH 2 PM...TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S...WHILE SITES IN THE SUN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A CHECK
OUT THE DOOR AT THE OFFICE REVEALS...IT IS IN FACT A VERY PLEASANT
DAY IN LOCATIONS WITH SUN. THE HIGHWAY 20 GLOOM IN IOWA MAY LAST
THROUGH SUNSET...THROUGH THE INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH THE EDGE OF CLOUDS NORTH NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND ERODE THROUGH
SUNSET...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. IN FACT...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CAA SPREADING IN AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL HELP
BRING A SEASONALLY MILD NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S OUR WAY...EVEN WITHOUT LOW CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US FROM DECOUPLING
COMPLETELY.

SUNDAY...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY NOT SATURATE UNTIL WELL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY...GUSTY WIND...BUT DEEPLY MIXED AND SEASONALLY MILD DAY TO MOST
OF THE CWA.  ANY FLURRIES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. I HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW...AS THIS IS MUCH MORE OF
DRIFTING SCENARIO WITH WINDS UNDER 30 MPH...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
SNOW TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THAT SNOW MAY...OR MAY
NOT BE COMPACTED ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE DRIFTING. WE WILL FIND OUT
TOMORROW...HELPING MAKE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF A BLOWING THREAT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON VIGOROUS CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OTHERWISE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TAKING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CYCLONE
IN THE GREAT LAKES AND SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUMMET SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH A VERY COLD POCKET AT 500 MB OF ABOUT -30
TO -35C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AND
DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 850 MB WHICH WILL TAP 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS THERE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SOME POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY INTENSE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND MAY CAUSE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. EVEN THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND AN
OR LESS THE STRONG WIND MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ACCURATELY.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. FOR
NOW I WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FAR NW CWA WHERE THE DEEPEST
SNOW COVER CURRENTLY EXISTS. HOWEVER...ANY FRESHLY FALLING SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH MODELS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FOR THE MOST PART MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE AREA OF VERY LOW STRATUS...WITH SOME MVFR FOG...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF IOWA TODAY...IMPACTING CID AND DBQ
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME CLEARING AT
CID EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS AND I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW. FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A QUIET VFR PERIOD IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 KTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...A PERIOD OF VFR/CLEAR SHOULD MOVE INTO ALL SITES IN
IOWA BY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 061710
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1110 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

I HAVE UPDATED TO WITH WITH MORE OF BINARY...THE HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRATUS IS OPAQUE...AND REINFORCING THE
INVERSION IN PLACE OVER SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF IOWA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES. JUST TO THE EAST...WHERE FULL SUN IS OUT...TEMPERATURES
ARE RAPIDLY RISING TO THE MID 30S AND THAT WILL NOT SLOW DOWN
EXPECT IN LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS CAN MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S LOOK ON TRACK. THUS A VERY DIFFERENT
SATURDAY FORECAST IS IN STORE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT AGL AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO FAR. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS OR NE MISSOURI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

TODAY...TEMPS WARM FURTHER REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH FOR
HIGHS...LOWER 40S ALONG I-80...AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTHERN DVN CWA.
AS SFC LOW PRESSURES FALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
ALBERTA CLIPPER...SFC WINDS LOCALLY OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH.

BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF A DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY...AND HENCE MIX OUT OF THE
STRATUS.

TONIGHT...STEADY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES MEANS TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MILDER...ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING CLIPPER. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED COMPARED WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS
24 HOURS AGO. THUS...SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE...AROUND AN INCH OR SO NORTH TO A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE
SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MAY NOT BE PRONE TO BLOWING AROUND MUCH IF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY RESULT IN A LIGHT CRUST OVER THE SNOW PACK.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW BLOWING ACROSS ROADS. THE
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WIND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...MEANS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD GET DICEY...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM INDEPENDENCE TO
DUBUQUE AND CEDAR RAPIDS. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CASE WHERE THE IMPACTS
OF THE SNOW AND WIND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS
COLD AIR SURGES IN TO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS VALUES BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE AREA OF VERY LOW STRATUS...WITH SOME MVFR FOG...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF IOWA TODAY...IMPACTING CID AND DBQ
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME CLEARING AT
CID EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS AND I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW. FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A QUIET VFR PERIOD IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 KTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...A PERIOD OF VFR/CLEAR SHOULD MOVE INTO ALL SITES IN
IOWA BY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDVN 061520
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
920 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

I HAVE UPDATED TO WITH WITH MORE OF BINARY...THE HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS FORECAST FOR TODAY. STRATUS IS OPAQUE...AND REINFORCING THE
INVERSION IN PLACE OVER SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF IOWA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES. JUST TO THE EAST...WHERE FULL SUN IS OUT...TEMPERATURES
ARE RAPIDLY RISING TO THE MID 30S AND THAT WILL NOT SLOW DOWN
EXPECT IN LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUDS CAN MOVE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S LOOK ON TRACK. THUS A VERY DIFFERENT
SATURDAY FORECAST IS IN STORE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT AGL AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO FAR. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS OR NE MISSOURI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

TODAY...TEMPS WARM FURTHER REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH FOR
HIGHS...LOWER 40S ALONG I-80...AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTHERN DVN CWA.
AS SFC LOW PRESSURES FALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
ALBERTA CLIPPER...SFC WINDS LOCALLY OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH.

BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF A DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY...AND HENCE MIX OUT OF THE
STRATUS.

TONIGHT...STEADY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES MEANS TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MILDER...ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING CLIPPER. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED COMPARED WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS
24 HOURS AGO. THUS...SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE...AROUND AN INCH OR SO NORTH TO A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE
SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MAY NOT BE PRONE TO BLOWING AROUND MUCH IF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY RESULT IN A LIGHT CRUST OVER THE SNOW PACK.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW BLOWING ACROSS ROADS. THE
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WIND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...MEANS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD GET DICEY...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM INDEPENDENCE TO
DUBUQUE AND CEDAR RAPIDS. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CASE WHERE THE IMPACTS
OF THE SNOW AND WIND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS
COLD AIR SURGES IN TO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS VALUES BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS MVFR STRATUS...CIGS NEAR
2000 FT AGL...AT KDBQ/KCID/KMLI. WARMING SFC TEMPS THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTN WILL CAUSE THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
INCREASE. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN WITH A RETURN TO VFR. UTTECH


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 061201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT AGL AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO FAR. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS OR NE MISSOURI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

TODAY...TEMPS WARM FURTHER REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH FOR
HIGHS...LOWER 40S ALONG I-80...AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTHERN DVN CWA.
AS SFC LOW PRESSURES FALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
ALBERTA CLIPPER...SFC WINDS LOCALLY OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH.

BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF A DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY...AND HENCE MIX OUT OF THE
STRATUS.

TONIGHT...STEADY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES MEANS TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MILDER...ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING CLIPPER. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED COMPARED WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS
24 HOURS AGO. THUS...SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE...AROUND AN INCH OR SO NORTH TO A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE
SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MAY NOT BE PRONE TO BLOWING AROUND MUCH IF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY RESULT IN A LIGHT CRUST OVER THE SNOW PACK.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW BLOWING ACROSS ROADS. THE
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WIND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...MEANS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD GET DICEY...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM INDEPENDENCE TO
DUBUQUE AND CEDAR RAPIDS. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CASE WHERE THE IMPACTS
OF THE SNOW AND WIND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS
COLD AIR SURGES IN TO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS VALUES BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS MVFR STRATUS...CIGS NEAR
2000 FT AGL...AT KDBQ/KCID/KMLI. WARMING SFC TEMPS THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTN WILL CAUSE THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
INCREASE. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN WITH A RETURN TO VFR. UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 061201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT AGL AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO FAR. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS OR NE MISSOURI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

TODAY...TEMPS WARM FURTHER REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH FOR
HIGHS...LOWER 40S ALONG I-80...AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTHERN DVN CWA.
AS SFC LOW PRESSURES FALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
ALBERTA CLIPPER...SFC WINDS LOCALLY OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH.

BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF A DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY...AND HENCE MIX OUT OF THE
STRATUS.

TONIGHT...STEADY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES MEANS TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MILDER...ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING CLIPPER. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED COMPARED WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS
24 HOURS AGO. THUS...SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE...AROUND AN INCH OR SO NORTH TO A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE
SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MAY NOT BE PRONE TO BLOWING AROUND MUCH IF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY RESULT IN A LIGHT CRUST OVER THE SNOW PACK.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW BLOWING ACROSS ROADS. THE
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WIND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...MEANS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD GET DICEY...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM INDEPENDENCE TO
DUBUQUE AND CEDAR RAPIDS. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CASE WHERE THE IMPACTS
OF THE SNOW AND WIND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS
COLD AIR SURGES IN TO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS VALUES BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS MVFR STRATUS...CIGS NEAR
2000 FT AGL...AT KDBQ/KCID/KMLI. WARMING SFC TEMPS THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTN WILL CAUSE THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
INCREASE. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN WITH A RETURN TO VFR. UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 060927
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT AGL AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THROUGH
THE NIGHT SO FAR. NO PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS OR NE MISSOURI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

TODAY...TEMPS WARM FURTHER REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH FOR
HIGHS...LOWER 40S ALONG I-80...AND MIDDLE 40S SOUTHERN DVN CWA.
AS SFC LOW PRESSURES FALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
ALBERTA CLIPPER...SFC WINDS LOCALLY OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH.

BEST CHANCE TO GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF A DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY...AND HENCE MIX OUT OF THE
STRATUS.

TONIGHT...STEADY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES MEANS TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MILDER...ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH...WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING CLIPPER. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTH
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED COMPARED WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS
24 HOURS AGO. THUS...SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE...AROUND AN INCH OR SO NORTH TO A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE
SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MAY NOT BE PRONE TO BLOWING AROUND MUCH IF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY RESULT IN A LIGHT CRUST OVER THE SNOW PACK.
HOWEVER...WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW BLOWING ACROSS ROADS. THE
TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WIND DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...MEANS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD GET DICEY...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM INDEPENDENCE TO
DUBUQUE AND CEDAR RAPIDS. THIS IS A POTENTIAL CASE WHERE THE IMPACTS
OF THE SNOW AND WIND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY WARRANT AN
ADVISORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS
COLD AIR SURGES IN TO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS VALUES BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT SOME MODERATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MAIN CONCERN IS CIG HEIGHTS. INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY ANTICIPATE ADVECTION OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IA... WITH MVFR CIGS AND POCKETS
OF IFR. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF IFR WILL BE
AT CID AND DBQ... WHILE MLI AND ESPECIALLY BRL MAY BE ON SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF LOWER CLOUDS BUT TOO CLOSE AND OPTED TO DROP ALL SITES
TO MVFR ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... BUT BANKING ON A BIT STRONGER FLOW TO TAP DRYING
ALOFT TO HELP AT LEAST LIFT BASES TO VFR IF NOT SCATTER OUT
CLOUDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 060550
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

DVN 00Z RAOB SAMPLED MONSTER SUB-CLOUD DRY WEDGE... WHICH HAS
CHEWED UP THE LIGHT SNOW THIS EVE AS IT HAS MOVED TOWARD
EASTERN IA. THUS... HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES REST OF TONIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY FLAKE OR TWO POSSIBLE THIS EVE FROM CID-DBQ.
OTHERWISE... JUST PLENTY OF CLOUDS REST OF TONIGHT WHICH WILL ACT
AS A BLANKET AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST ACRS
THE AREA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHILE A MULTI-CENTERED BUT WEAK
LOW/TROF COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN MN...DOWN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB ATTM. THIS FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF CLIPPER VORT MAX
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE WAS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING OVER
THE OK-TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS INDUCING A BAND OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACRS IA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY SUB-H6 MB LAYER
OF AIR ACRS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL IA...EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SHIELD
IS ALOFT/IN VIRGA FORM. BUT ASSESSING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERING CONDENSATION P-DEFS ON THE 285-290K SFCS...STILL AT LEAST A
LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND NORTHWESTERN THIRD
DURING THE EVENING WITH A DUSTING. OTHERWISE BULK OF INCOMING LIFT
OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE VORT GRADIENT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH THE
PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SFC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRY
UP/WANE OR MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRAILING SFC RIDGE OFF THE
WEAKENING LOW ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS...COMBINED WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. BUT WILL ONLY ADD PATCHY MENTION IN THESE AREAS
FOR NOW WITH A BETTER CHC OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND LEERY THAT NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM OVERDOING SFC
MOISTURE PARAMETERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. WITH
CLOUDS...MINIMAL OR NO SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WILL HOPE FOR ANY MORNING STRATUS OR STRATOCU DECKS TO
ERODE OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME INSOLATION. THIS
COMBINED WITH RE-ORGANIZING LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MILD AIRMASS
FEED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AT LEAST 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
LINGERING SNOWPACK AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD MAKE THE CURRENTLY FCST HIGH TEMPS 1-4 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN SEVERAL AREAS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE ISSUE OF DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. LOCAL TOOLS
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN
NORTH TUE/WED AM AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH -20F NEAR DAYBREAK
DUE TO 1 TO 4+ INCH SNOW PACK OVER NORTHWEST 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX REMAINS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 36 TO 48 DEGREE RANGE OR
ROUGLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MOST PROBABLE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  TURNING
COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST LOCATIONS STILL ON TAP FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  SOME MINOR
DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW TOTALS.  ALL BUT
THE FAR NW SECTIONS ALSO HAVE NO SNOW AND THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE CRUSTED OVER AS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND REACH ABOVE FREEZING BOTH
DAYS MELTING THE TOP LAYER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S FAR NW TO LOWER 30S SE SECTIONS.
CONCERN WITH LOWS TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH AS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OF SKIES BY MORNING WITH FURTHER
LOWERING OF MINS BY 3 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE. SEASONABLY COLD WITH FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 30F AND MINS SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO MILD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. BLUSTERY ON
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.

THURSDAY ADN FRIDAY...FAIR AND A BIT WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MAIN CONCERN IS CIG HEIGHTS. INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY ANTICIPATE ADVECTION OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IA... WITH MVFR CIGS AND POCKETS
OF IFR. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF IFR WILL BE
AT CID AND DBQ... WHILE MLI AND ESPECIALLY BRL MAY BE ON SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF LOWER CLOUDS BUT TOO CLOSE AND OPTED TO DROP ALL SITES
TO MVFR ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... BUT BANKING ON A BIT STRONGER FLOW TO TAP DRYING
ALOFT TO HELP AT LEAST LIFT BASES TO VFR IF NOT SCATTER OUT
CLOUDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...MCCLURE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 060550
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

DVN 00Z RAOB SAMPLED MONSTER SUB-CLOUD DRY WEDGE... WHICH HAS
CHEWED UP THE LIGHT SNOW THIS EVE AS IT HAS MOVED TOWARD
EASTERN IA. THUS... HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES REST OF TONIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY FLAKE OR TWO POSSIBLE THIS EVE FROM CID-DBQ.
OTHERWISE... JUST PLENTY OF CLOUDS REST OF TONIGHT WHICH WILL ACT
AS A BLANKET AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST ACRS
THE AREA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHILE A MULTI-CENTERED BUT WEAK
LOW/TROF COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN MN...DOWN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB ATTM. THIS FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF CLIPPER VORT MAX
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE WAS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING OVER
THE OK-TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS INDUCING A BAND OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACRS IA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY SUB-H6 MB LAYER
OF AIR ACRS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL IA...EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SHIELD
IS ALOFT/IN VIRGA FORM. BUT ASSESSING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERING CONDENSATION P-DEFS ON THE 285-290K SFCS...STILL AT LEAST A
LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND NORTHWESTERN THIRD
DURING THE EVENING WITH A DUSTING. OTHERWISE BULK OF INCOMING LIFT
OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE VORT GRADIENT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH THE
PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SFC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRY
UP/WANE OR MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRAILING SFC RIDGE OFF THE
WEAKENING LOW ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS...COMBINED WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. BUT WILL ONLY ADD PATCHY MENTION IN THESE AREAS
FOR NOW WITH A BETTER CHC OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND LEERY THAT NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM OVERDOING SFC
MOISTURE PARAMETERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. WITH
CLOUDS...MINIMAL OR NO SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WILL HOPE FOR ANY MORNING STRATUS OR STRATOCU DECKS TO
ERODE OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME INSOLATION. THIS
COMBINED WITH RE-ORGANIZING LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MILD AIRMASS
FEED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AT LEAST 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
LINGERING SNOWPACK AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD MAKE THE CURRENTLY FCST HIGH TEMPS 1-4 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN SEVERAL AREAS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE ISSUE OF DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. LOCAL TOOLS
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN
NORTH TUE/WED AM AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH -20F NEAR DAYBREAK
DUE TO 1 TO 4+ INCH SNOW PACK OVER NORTHWEST 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX REMAINS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 36 TO 48 DEGREE RANGE OR
ROUGLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MOST PROBABLE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  TURNING
COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST LOCATIONS STILL ON TAP FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  SOME MINOR
DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW TOTALS.  ALL BUT
THE FAR NW SECTIONS ALSO HAVE NO SNOW AND THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE CRUSTED OVER AS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND REACH ABOVE FREEZING BOTH
DAYS MELTING THE TOP LAYER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S FAR NW TO LOWER 30S SE SECTIONS.
CONCERN WITH LOWS TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH AS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OF SKIES BY MORNING WITH FURTHER
LOWERING OF MINS BY 3 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE. SEASONABLY COLD WITH FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 30F AND MINS SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO MILD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. BLUSTERY ON
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.

THURSDAY ADN FRIDAY...FAIR AND A BIT WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MAIN CONCERN IS CIG HEIGHTS. INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY ANTICIPATE ADVECTION OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IA... WITH MVFR CIGS AND POCKETS
OF IFR. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF IFR WILL BE
AT CID AND DBQ... WHILE MLI AND ESPECIALLY BRL MAY BE ON SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF LOWER CLOUDS BUT TOO CLOSE AND OPTED TO DROP ALL SITES
TO MVFR ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... BUT BANKING ON A BIT STRONGER FLOW TO TAP DRYING
ALOFT TO HELP AT LEAST LIFT BASES TO VFR IF NOT SCATTER OUT
CLOUDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 060550
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

DVN 00Z RAOB SAMPLED MONSTER SUB-CLOUD DRY WEDGE... WHICH HAS
CHEWED UP THE LIGHT SNOW THIS EVE AS IT HAS MOVED TOWARD
EASTERN IA. THUS... HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES REST OF TONIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY FLAKE OR TWO POSSIBLE THIS EVE FROM CID-DBQ.
OTHERWISE... JUST PLENTY OF CLOUDS REST OF TONIGHT WHICH WILL ACT
AS A BLANKET AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST ACRS
THE AREA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHILE A MULTI-CENTERED BUT WEAK
LOW/TROF COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN MN...DOWN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB ATTM. THIS FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF CLIPPER VORT MAX
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE WAS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING OVER
THE OK-TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS INDUCING A BAND OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACRS IA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY SUB-H6 MB LAYER
OF AIR ACRS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL IA...EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SHIELD
IS ALOFT/IN VIRGA FORM. BUT ASSESSING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERING CONDENSATION P-DEFS ON THE 285-290K SFCS...STILL AT LEAST A
LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND NORTHWESTERN THIRD
DURING THE EVENING WITH A DUSTING. OTHERWISE BULK OF INCOMING LIFT
OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE VORT GRADIENT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH THE
PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SFC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRY
UP/WANE OR MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRAILING SFC RIDGE OFF THE
WEAKENING LOW ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS...COMBINED WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. BUT WILL ONLY ADD PATCHY MENTION IN THESE AREAS
FOR NOW WITH A BETTER CHC OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND LEERY THAT NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM OVERDOING SFC
MOISTURE PARAMETERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. WITH
CLOUDS...MINIMAL OR NO SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WILL HOPE FOR ANY MORNING STRATUS OR STRATOCU DECKS TO
ERODE OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME INSOLATION. THIS
COMBINED WITH RE-ORGANIZING LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MILD AIRMASS
FEED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AT LEAST 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
LINGERING SNOWPACK AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD MAKE THE CURRENTLY FCST HIGH TEMPS 1-4 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN SEVERAL AREAS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE ISSUE OF DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. LOCAL TOOLS
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN
NORTH TUE/WED AM AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH -20F NEAR DAYBREAK
DUE TO 1 TO 4+ INCH SNOW PACK OVER NORTHWEST 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX REMAINS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 36 TO 48 DEGREE RANGE OR
ROUGLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MOST PROBABLE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  TURNING
COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST LOCATIONS STILL ON TAP FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  SOME MINOR
DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW TOTALS.  ALL BUT
THE FAR NW SECTIONS ALSO HAVE NO SNOW AND THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE CRUSTED OVER AS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND REACH ABOVE FREEZING BOTH
DAYS MELTING THE TOP LAYER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S FAR NW TO LOWER 30S SE SECTIONS.
CONCERN WITH LOWS TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH AS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OF SKIES BY MORNING WITH FURTHER
LOWERING OF MINS BY 3 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE. SEASONABLY COLD WITH FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 30F AND MINS SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO MILD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. BLUSTERY ON
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.

THURSDAY ADN FRIDAY...FAIR AND A BIT WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MAIN CONCERN IS CIG HEIGHTS. INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY ANTICIPATE ADVECTION OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IA... WITH MVFR CIGS AND POCKETS
OF IFR. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF IFR WILL BE
AT CID AND DBQ... WHILE MLI AND ESPECIALLY BRL MAY BE ON SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF LOWER CLOUDS BUT TOO CLOSE AND OPTED TO DROP ALL SITES
TO MVFR ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... BUT BANKING ON A BIT STRONGER FLOW TO TAP DRYING
ALOFT TO HELP AT LEAST LIFT BASES TO VFR IF NOT SCATTER OUT
CLOUDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 060342
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
942 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

DVN 00Z RAOB SAMPLED MONSTER SUB-CLOUD DRY WEDGE... WHICH HAS
CHEWED UP THE LIGHT SNOW THIS EVE AS IT HAS MOVED TOWARD
EASTERN IA. THUS... HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES REST OF TONIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY FLAKE OR TWO POSSIBLE THIS EVE FROM CID-DBQ.
OTHERWISE... JUST PLENTY OF CLOUDS REST OF TONIGHT WHICH WILL ACT
AS A BLANKET AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST ACRS
THE AREA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHILE A MULTI-CENTERED BUT WEAK
LOW/TROF COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN MN...DOWN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB ATTM. THIS FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF CLIPPER VORT MAX
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE WAS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING OVER
THE OK-TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS INDUCING A BAND OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACRS IA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY SUB-H6 MB LAYER
OF AIR ACRS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL IA...EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SHIELD
IS ALOFT/IN VIRGA FORM. BUT ASSESSING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERING CONDENSATION P-DEFS ON THE 285-290K SFCS...STILL AT LEAST A
LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND NORTHWESTERN THIRD
DURING THE EVENING WITH A DUSTING. OTHERWISE BULK OF INCOMING LIFT
OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE VORT GRADIENT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH THE
PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SFC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRY
UP/WANE OR MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRAILING SFC RIDGE OFF THE
WEAKENING LOW ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS...COMBINED WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. BUT WILL ONLY ADD PATCHY MENTION IN THESE AREAS
FOR NOW WITH A BETTER CHC OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND LEERY THAT NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM OVERDOING SFC
MOISTURE PARAMETERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. WITH
CLOUDS...MINIMAL OR NO SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WILL HOPE FOR ANY MORNING STRATUS OR STRATOCU DECKS TO
ERODE OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME INSOLATION. THIS
COMBINED WITH RE-ORGANIZING LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MILD AIRMASS
FEED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AT LEAST 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
LINGERING SNOWPACK AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD MAKE THE CURRENTLY FCST HIGH TEMPS 1-4 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN SEVERAL AREAS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE ISSUE OF DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. LOCAL TOOLS
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN
NORTH TUE/WED AM AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH -20F NEAR DAYBREAK
DUE TO 1 TO 4+ INCH SNOW PACK OVER NORTHWEST 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX REMAINS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 36 TO 48 DEGREE RANGE OR
ROUGLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MOST PROBABLE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  TURNING
COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST LOCATIONS STILL ON TAP FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  SOME MINOR
DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW TOTALS.  ALL BUT
THE FAR NW SECTIONS ALSO HAVE NO SNOW AND THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE CRUSTED OVER AS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND REACH ABOVE FREEZING BOTH
DAYS MELTING THE TOP LAYER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S FAR NW TO LOWER 30S SE SECTIONS.
CONCERN WITH LOWS TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH AS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OF SKIES BY MORNING WITH FURTHER
LOWERING OF MINS BY 3 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE. SEASONABLY COLD WITH FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 30F AND MINS SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO MILD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. BLUSTERY ON
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.

THURSDAY ADN FRIDAY...FAIR AND A BIT WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

OVERALL... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BRL AND MLI
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT
DBQ AND CID.

WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY
BRING FLURRIES... WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AT DBQ AND CID. OTHERWISE... LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH MAY
LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WEST AND NORTH
OF I-80. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY PM
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT CID AND DBQ... WHILE
BRL AND MLI SHOULD REMAIN VFR.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 052351
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
551 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST ACRS
THE AREA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHILE A MULTI-CENTERED BUT WEAK
LOW/TROF COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN MN...DOWN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB ATTM. THIS FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF CLIPPER VORT MAX
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE WAS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING OVER
THE OK-TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS INDUCING A BAND OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACRS IA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY SUB-H6 MB LAYER
OF AIR ACRS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL IA...EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SHIELD
IS ALOFT/IN VIRGA FORM. BUT ASSESSING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERING CONDENSATION P-DEFS ON THE 285-290K SFCS...STILL AT LEAST A
LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND NORTHWESTERN THIRD
DURING THE EVENING WITH A DUSTING. OTHERWISE BULK OF INCOMING LIFT
OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE VORT GRADIENT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH THE
PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SFC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRY
UP/WANE OR MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRAILING SFC RIDGE OFF THE
WEAKENING LOW ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS...COMBINED WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. BUT WILL ONLY ADD PATCHY MENTION IN THESE AREAS
FOR NOW WITH A BETTER CHC OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND LEERY THAT NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM OVERDOING SFC
MOISTURE PARAMETERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. WITH
CLOUDS...MINIMAL OR NO SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WILL HOPE FOR ANY MORNING STRATUS OR STRATOCU DECKS TO
ERODE OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME INSOLATION. THIS
COMBINED WITH RE-ORGANIZING LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MILD AIRMASS
FEED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AT LEAST 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
LINGERING SNOWPACK AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD MAKE THE CURRENTLY FCST HIGH TEMPS 1-4 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN SEVERAL AREAS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE ISSUE OF DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. LOCAL TOOLS
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN
NORTH TUE/WED AM AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH -20F NEAR DAYBREAK
DUE TO 1 TO 4+ INCH SNOW PACK OVER NORTHWEST 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX REMAINS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 36 TO 48 DEGREE RANGE OR
ROUGLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MOST PROBABLE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  TURNING
COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST LOCATIONS STILL ON TAP FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  SOME MINOR
DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW TOTALS.  ALL BUT
THE FAR NW SECTIONS ALSO HAVE NO SNOW AND THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE CRUSTED OVER AS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND REACH ABOVE FREEZING BOTH
DAYS MELTING THE TOP LAYER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S FAR NW TO LOWER 30S SE SECTIONS.
CONCERN WITH LOWS TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH AS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OF SKIES BY MORNING WITH FURTHER
LOWERING OF MINS BY 3 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE. SEASONABLY COLD WITH FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 30F AND MINS SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO MILD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. BLUSTERY ON
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.

THURSDAY ADN FRIDAY...FAIR AND A BIT WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

OVERALL... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BRL AND MLI
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT
DBQ AND CID.

WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY
BRING FLURRIES... WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AT DBQ AND CID. OTHERWISE... LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH MAY
LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WEST AND NORTH
OF I-80. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY PM
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT CID AND DBQ... WHILE
BRL AND MLI SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 052351
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
551 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST ACRS
THE AREA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHILE A MULTI-CENTERED BUT WEAK
LOW/TROF COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN MN...DOWN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB ATTM. THIS FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF CLIPPER VORT MAX
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE WAS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING OVER
THE OK-TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS INDUCING A BAND OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACRS IA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY SUB-H6 MB LAYER
OF AIR ACRS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL IA...EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SHIELD
IS ALOFT/IN VIRGA FORM. BUT ASSESSING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERING CONDENSATION P-DEFS ON THE 285-290K SFCS...STILL AT LEAST A
LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND NORTHWESTERN THIRD
DURING THE EVENING WITH A DUSTING. OTHERWISE BULK OF INCOMING LIFT
OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE VORT GRADIENT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH THE
PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SFC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRY
UP/WANE OR MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRAILING SFC RIDGE OFF THE
WEAKENING LOW ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS...COMBINED WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. BUT WILL ONLY ADD PATCHY MENTION IN THESE AREAS
FOR NOW WITH A BETTER CHC OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND LEERY THAT NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM OVERDOING SFC
MOISTURE PARAMETERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. WITH
CLOUDS...MINIMAL OR NO SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WILL HOPE FOR ANY MORNING STRATUS OR STRATOCU DECKS TO
ERODE OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME INSOLATION. THIS
COMBINED WITH RE-ORGANIZING LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MILD AIRMASS
FEED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AT LEAST 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
LINGERING SNOWPACK AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD MAKE THE CURRENTLY FCST HIGH TEMPS 1-4 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN SEVERAL AREAS.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE ISSUE OF DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. LOCAL TOOLS
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN
NORTH TUE/WED AM AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH -20F NEAR DAYBREAK
DUE TO 1 TO 4+ INCH SNOW PACK OVER NORTHWEST 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX REMAINS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 36 TO 48 DEGREE RANGE OR
ROUGLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MOST PROBABLE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  TURNING
COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST LOCATIONS STILL ON TAP FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  SOME MINOR
DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW TOTALS.  ALL BUT
THE FAR NW SECTIONS ALSO HAVE NO SNOW AND THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE CRUSTED OVER AS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND REACH ABOVE FREEZING BOTH
DAYS MELTING THE TOP LAYER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S FAR NW TO LOWER 30S SE SECTIONS.
CONCERN WITH LOWS TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH AS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OF SKIES BY MORNING WITH FURTHER
LOWERING OF MINS BY 3 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE. SEASONABLY COLD WITH FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 30F AND MINS SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO MILD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. BLUSTERY ON
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.

THURSDAY ADN FRIDAY...FAIR AND A BIT WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

OVERALL... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BRL AND MLI
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT
DBQ AND CID.

WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY
BRING FLURRIES... WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AT DBQ AND CID. OTHERWISE... LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH MAY
LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WEST AND NORTH
OF I-80. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BY SATURDAY PM
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT CID AND DBQ... WHILE
BRL AND MLI SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...MCCLURE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 052106
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A RIDGE AXIS PASSING EAST ACRS
THE AREA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL...WHILE A MULTI-CENTERED BUT WEAK
LOW/TROF COMPLEX WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN MN...DOWN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB ATTM. THIS FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF CLIPPER VORT MAX
PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE WAS SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING OVER
THE OK-TX PANHANDLE REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TONIGHT...THE CLIPPER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS INDUCING A BAND OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES MOVING EAST ACRS IA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY SUB-H6 MB LAYER
OF AIR ACRS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL IA...EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SHIELD
IS ALOFT/IN VIRGA FORM. BUT ASSESSING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOWERING CONDENSATION P-DEFS ON THE 285-290K SFCS...STILL AT LEAST A
LOW CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND NORTHWESTERN THIRD
DURING THE EVENING WITH A DUSTING. OTHERWISE BULK OF INCOMING LIFT
OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE VORT GRADIENT GOING INTO THE TOP-DOWN
SATURATION PROCESS AND JUST EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH THE
PRECIP THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SFC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRY
UP/WANE OR MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE TRAILING SFC RIDGE OFF THE
WEAKENING LOW ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS...COMBINED WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. BUT WILL ONLY ADD PATCHY MENTION IN THESE AREAS
FOR NOW WITH A BETTER CHC OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND LEERY THAT NEAR-TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM OVERDOING SFC
MOISTURE PARAMETERS AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN. WITH
CLOUDS...MINIMAL OR NO SNOW COVER...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WILL HOPE FOR ANY MORNING STRATUS OR STRATOCU DECKS TO
ERODE OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME INSOLATION. THIS
COMBINED WITH RE-ORGANIZING LLVL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND MILD AIRMASS
FEED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY MILD DAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO AT LEAST 45 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80.
LINGERING SNOWPACK AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD DOWN MORE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE SUNSHINE AND MIXING THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WOULD MAKE THE CURRENTLY FCST HIGH TEMPS 1-4 DEGREES TOO
COOL IN SEVERAL AREAS.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHARPLY COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE...MAINLY ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH THE ISSUE OF DURATION AND INTENSITY OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR. LOCAL TOOLS
CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH.  TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE A
CATEGORY OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN
NORTH TUE/WED AM AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH -20F NEAR DAYBREAK
DUE TO 1 TO 4+ INCH SNOW PACK OVER NORTHWEST 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE. RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX REMAINS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY...SEASONABLY MILD AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 36 TO 48 DEGREE RANGE OR
ROUGLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MOST PROBABLE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  TURNING
COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST LOCATIONS STILL ON TAP FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO LOCALLY 1+ INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  SOME MINOR
DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW TOTALS.  ALL BUT
THE FAR NW SECTIONS ALSO HAVE NO SNOW AND THE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE CRUSTED OVER AS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND REACH ABOVE FREEZING BOTH
DAYS MELTING THE TOP LAYER. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO LOCALLY 35 MPH
POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 20S FAR NW TO LOWER 30S SE SECTIONS.
CONCERN WITH LOWS TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO HIGH AS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OF SKIES BY MORNING WITH FURTHER
LOWERING OF MINS BY 3 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE. SEASONABLY COLD WITH FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 30F AND MINS SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO MILD DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. BLUSTERY ON
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.

THURSDAY ADN FRIDAY...FAIR AND A BIT WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S AND MINS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE.
LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT CID
AND DBQ BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. JUST FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IMPACT IN THE VCNTY OF MLI. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
EVENTUALLY GETTING WRAPPED IN FROM THE WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I80 LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING LIGHT WINDS WITH ANY
TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY...WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID SAT MORNING AT CID AND DBQ.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 051755
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SYNOPSIS...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BEHIND A WEAK WAVE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT BROUGHT SMALL/SCATTERED...BUT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
TO PARTS OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE OF 700MB WAA/NEGATIVE OMEGA
HAS BEEN A POOL OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND DRY
WEATHER AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S
AND A BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPARENT ON THE 11.0- 3.9 IR
DIFFERENCE PRODUCT WAS PERSISTENT ROUGHLY EAST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS
IOWA TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE SEASONAL AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S FAR NORTHERN DVN CWA TO MID 30S FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
E IOWA/W ILLINOIS FROM THE WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE
SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO THURSDAY EVENING/S WEAK
DISTURBANCE...THE FORMER WILL BE DEALING WITH VERY DRY LOWER
LAYERS AND 800-700MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 5 C/KM...WHICH ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LAPSE RATES WERE MUCH STEEPER.

ADDED FLURRIES IN THE NW DURING THE LATE AFTN...THEN HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING. ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK BUT AS 850MB WAA/LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE
AND COINCIDE WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVELS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR MOST AREAS A DUSTING OR NOTHING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE W/NW
DVN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE ARRIVAL OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK...BUT GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEMS
REASONABLE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE SURFACE TO 700
MB LAYER COOLING INTO THE -10 TO -20C RANGE...FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE IN THE INCREASING WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW...EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW TO THIS AREA AND WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
BELOW ZERO EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. SOME MODERATION IS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE.
LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT CID
AND DBQ BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. JUST FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IMPACT IN THE VCNTY OF MLI. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
EVENTUALLY GETTING WRAPPED IN FROM THE WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I80 LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING LIGHT WINDS WITH ANY
TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY...WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID SAT MORNING AT CID AND DBQ.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 051755
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SYNOPSIS...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BEHIND A WEAK WAVE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT BROUGHT SMALL/SCATTERED...BUT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
TO PARTS OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE OF 700MB WAA/NEGATIVE OMEGA
HAS BEEN A POOL OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND DRY
WEATHER AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S
AND A BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPARENT ON THE 11.0- 3.9 IR
DIFFERENCE PRODUCT WAS PERSISTENT ROUGHLY EAST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS
IOWA TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE SEASONAL AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S FAR NORTHERN DVN CWA TO MID 30S FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
E IOWA/W ILLINOIS FROM THE WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE
SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO THURSDAY EVENING/S WEAK
DISTURBANCE...THE FORMER WILL BE DEALING WITH VERY DRY LOWER
LAYERS AND 800-700MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 5 C/KM...WHICH ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LAPSE RATES WERE MUCH STEEPER.

ADDED FLURRIES IN THE NW DURING THE LATE AFTN...THEN HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING. ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK BUT AS 850MB WAA/LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE
AND COINCIDE WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVELS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR MOST AREAS A DUSTING OR NOTHING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE W/NW
DVN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE ARRIVAL OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK...BUT GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEMS
REASONABLE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE SURFACE TO 700
MB LAYER COOLING INTO THE -10 TO -20C RANGE...FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE IN THE INCREASING WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW...EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW TO THIS AREA AND WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
BELOW ZERO EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. SOME MODERATION IS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE.
LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT CID
AND DBQ BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. JUST FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IMPACT IN THE VCNTY OF MLI. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
EVENTUALLY GETTING WRAPPED IN FROM THE WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I80 LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING LIGHT WINDS WITH ANY
TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY...WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID SAT MORNING AT CID AND DBQ.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 051755
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SYNOPSIS...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BEHIND A WEAK WAVE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT BROUGHT SMALL/SCATTERED...BUT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
TO PARTS OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE OF 700MB WAA/NEGATIVE OMEGA
HAS BEEN A POOL OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND DRY
WEATHER AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S
AND A BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPARENT ON THE 11.0- 3.9 IR
DIFFERENCE PRODUCT WAS PERSISTENT ROUGHLY EAST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS
IOWA TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE SEASONAL AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S FAR NORTHERN DVN CWA TO MID 30S FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
E IOWA/W ILLINOIS FROM THE WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE
SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO THURSDAY EVENING/S WEAK
DISTURBANCE...THE FORMER WILL BE DEALING WITH VERY DRY LOWER
LAYERS AND 800-700MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 5 C/KM...WHICH ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LAPSE RATES WERE MUCH STEEPER.

ADDED FLURRIES IN THE NW DURING THE LATE AFTN...THEN HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING. ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK BUT AS 850MB WAA/LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE
AND COINCIDE WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVELS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR MOST AREAS A DUSTING OR NOTHING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE W/NW
DVN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE ARRIVAL OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK...BUT GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEMS
REASONABLE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE SURFACE TO 700
MB LAYER COOLING INTO THE -10 TO -20C RANGE...FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE IN THE INCREASING WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW...EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW TO THIS AREA AND WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
BELOW ZERO EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. SOME MODERATION IS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHING ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE.
LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES AT CID
AND DBQ BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. JUST FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IMPACT IN THE VCNTY OF MLI. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MVFR CLOUD DECK
EVENTUALLY GETTING WRAPPED IN FROM THE WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I80 LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING LIGHT WINDS WITH ANY
TEMPORARY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY...WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID SAT MORNING AT CID AND DBQ.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12





000
FXUS63 KDVN 051138
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
538 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SYNOPSIS...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BEHIND A WEAK WAVE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT BROUGHT SMALL/SCATTERED...BUT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
TO PARTS OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE OF 700MB WAA/NEGATIVE OMEGA
HAS BEEN A POOL OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND DRY
WEATHER AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S
AND A BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPARENT ON THE 11.0- 3.9 IR
DIFFERENCE PRODUCT WAS PERSISTENT ROUGHLY EAST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS
IOWA TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE SEASONAL AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S FAR NORTHERN DVN CWA TO MID 30S FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
E IOWA/W ILLINOIS FROM THE WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE
SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO THURSDAY EVENING/S WEAK
DISTURBANCE...THE FORMER WILL BE DEALING WITH VERY DRY LOWER
LAYERS AND 800-700MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 5 C/KM...WHICH ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LAPSE RATES WERE MUCH STEEPER.

ADDED FLURRIES IN THE NW DURING THE LATE AFTN...THEN HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING. ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK BUT AS 850MB WAA/LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE
AND COINCIDE WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVELS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR MOST AREAS A DUSTING OR NOTHING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE W/NW
DVN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE ARRIVAL OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK...BUT GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEMS
REASONABLE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE SURFACE TO 700
MB LAYER COOLING INTO THE -10 TO -20C RANGE...FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE IN THE INCREASING WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW...EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW TO THIS AREA AND WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
BELOW ZERO EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. SOME MODERATION IS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LOW STATUS
IMPACTING KDBQ/KMLI WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CAUSING CEILINGS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO
VFR.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING FLURRIES TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS
LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. ANY IMPACTS TO AREA TERMINALS SHOULD BE
LITTLE TO NONE. UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH





000
FXUS63 KDVN 050949
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
349 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SYNOPSIS...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BEHIND A WEAK WAVE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT THAT BROUGHT SMALL/SCATTERED...BUT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
TO PARTS OF E IOWA/W ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WAVE OF 700MB WAA/NEGATIVE OMEGA
HAS BEEN A POOL OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND DRY
WEATHER AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S
AND A BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPARENT ON THE 11.0- 3.9 IR
DIFFERENCE PRODUCT WAS PERSISTENT ROUGHLY EAST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS
IOWA TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE SEASONAL AS HIGH TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S FAR NORTHERN DVN CWA TO MID 30S FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER...MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
E IOWA/W ILLINOIS FROM THE WNW LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE
SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO THURSDAY EVENING/S WEAK
DISTURBANCE...THE FORMER WILL BE DEALING WITH VERY DRY LOWER
LAYERS AND 800-700MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 5 C/KM...WHICH ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY EVENING WHEN LAPSE RATES WERE MUCH STEEPER.

ADDED FLURRIES IN THE NW DURING THE LATE AFTN...THEN HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING. ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK BUT AS 850MB WAA/LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE
AND COINCIDE WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVELS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR MOST AREAS A DUSTING OR NOTHING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE W/NW
DVN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE ARRIVAL OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 30S/40S OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK...BUT GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SEEMS
REASONABLE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE SURFACE TO 700
MB LAYER COOLING INTO THE -10 TO -20C RANGE...FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE IN THE INCREASING WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW...EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH AND HIGHER
GUSTS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING AND SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW. THIS
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW TO THIS AREA AND WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
BELOW ZERO EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. SOME MODERATION IS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z FRI. WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE LATE AM AND
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT AIDED BY NORTHERN PLAINS DOWNSLOPING
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND
IMPACT TO TERMINAL THUS FOR NOW HAVE ADDRESSED WITH VCSH WORDING.
LIKELY TO BE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SNOW SHOWERS... BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT AT ANY ONE TERMINAL
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MENTION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 050546
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. A WARM FRONT
RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN IOWA WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER
WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD LAST
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AT BEST WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING.

AFTER SUNSET...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN ARRIVING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TURNING MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
ISSUE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.  LOCAL TOOLS DO SUGGEST
WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE AT A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO
MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTH TUE/WED AM AND
WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -20F NEAR DAYBREAK.  HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.  RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX
IS REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MILDER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MID 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.  A
HIGH NEAR 50 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH LOCAL FORCING TO SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.  MOST LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE TRACE
AMOUNTS WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TURNING COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW.  SOME DRIFTING POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW
TOTALS.  SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LOWS BY TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO HIGH IF SKIES CLEAR BY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE NW SECTIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 25F AND MINS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS
LIKELY AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO MILD.  BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO.

THURSDAY...FAIR AND WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20 TO UPPER 30S AND MINS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z FRI. WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE LATE AM AND
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT AIDED BY NORTHERN PLAINS DOWNSLOPING
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND
IMPACT TO TERMINAL THUS FOR NOW HAVE ADDRESSED WITH VCSH WORDING.
LIKELY TO BE PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SNOW SHOWERS... BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON IMPACT AT ANY ONE TERMINAL
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MENTION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...MCCLURE





000
FXUS63 KDVN 042342
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. A WARM FRONT
RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN IOWA WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER
WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD LAST
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AT BEST WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING.

AFTER SUNSET...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN ARRIVING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TURNING MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
ISSUE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.  LOCAL TOOLS DO SUGGEST
WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE AT A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO
MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTH TUE/WED AM AND
WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -20F NEAR DAYBREAK.  HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.  RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX
IS REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MILDER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MID 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.  A
HIGH NEAR 50 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH LOCAL FORCING TO SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.  MOST LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE TRACE
AMOUNTS WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TURNING COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW.  SOME DRIFTING POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW
TOTALS.  SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LOWS BY TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO HIGH IF SKIES CLEAR BY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE NW SECTIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 25F AND MINS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS
LIKELY AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO MILD.  BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO.

THURSDAY...FAIR AND WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20 TO UPPER 30S AND MINS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 01Z-04Z WITH SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST ON WINDS WITH ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN CIGS NORTH OF I-80 ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES... WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 042342
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. A WARM FRONT
RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN IOWA WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER
WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD LAST
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AT BEST WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING.

AFTER SUNSET...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN ARRIVING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TURNING MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
ISSUE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.  LOCAL TOOLS DO SUGGEST
WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE AT A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO
MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTH TUE/WED AM AND
WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -20F NEAR DAYBREAK.  HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.  RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX
IS REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MILDER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MID 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.  A
HIGH NEAR 50 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH LOCAL FORCING TO SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.  MOST LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE TRACE
AMOUNTS WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TURNING COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW.  SOME DRIFTING POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW
TOTALS.  SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LOWS BY TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO HIGH IF SKIES CLEAR BY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE NW SECTIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 25F AND MINS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS
LIKELY AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO MILD.  BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO.

THURSDAY...FAIR AND WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20 TO UPPER 30S AND MINS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 01Z-04Z WITH SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST ON WINDS WITH ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN CIGS NORTH OF I-80 ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES... WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 042342
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. A WARM FRONT
RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN IOWA WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER
WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD LAST
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AT BEST WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING.

AFTER SUNSET...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN ARRIVING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TURNING MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
ISSUE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.  LOCAL TOOLS DO SUGGEST
WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE AT A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO
MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTH TUE/WED AM AND
WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -20F NEAR DAYBREAK.  HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.  RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX
IS REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MILDER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MID 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.  A
HIGH NEAR 50 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH LOCAL FORCING TO SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.  MOST LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE TRACE
AMOUNTS WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TURNING COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW.  SOME DRIFTING POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW
TOTALS.  SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LOWS BY TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO HIGH IF SKIES CLEAR BY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE NW SECTIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 25F AND MINS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS
LIKELY AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO MILD.  BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO.

THURSDAY...FAIR AND WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20 TO UPPER 30S AND MINS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 01Z-04Z WITH SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST ON WINDS WITH ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN CIGS NORTH OF I-80 ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES... WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 042055
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. A WARM FRONT
RAN SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN IOWA WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER
WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOULD LAST
LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AT BEST WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING.

AFTER SUNSET...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN ARRIVING
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TURNING MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH MAIN
ISSUE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY WITH ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.  LOCAL TOOLS DO SUGGEST
WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH FLURRIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WITH ARCTIC AIR MAY STILL BE AT A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO
MILD FOR LOWS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN NORTH TUE/WED AM AND
WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -20F NEAR DAYBREAK.  HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO LOW FOR LATER SHIFTS.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION FAIR WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES AS LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER MIDWEST AND
UPSTREAM.  BL TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE.  RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE SHOWS LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN THIS REGIME SO A 50/50 MIX
IS REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MILDER CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MID 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.  A
HIGH NEAR 50 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH LOCAL FORCING TO SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN SOUTH AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.  MOST LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY SEE TRACE
AMOUNTS WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TURNING COLDER AND BLUSTERY AS
ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW.  MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW.  SOME DRIFTING POSSIBLE BUT LIMITED DUE TO LOW SNOW
TOTALS.  SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  LOWS BY TUESDAY AM MAY BE AT LEAST A
CATEGORY TOO HIGH IF SKIES CLEAR BY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE NW SECTIONS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 15F TO 25F AND MINS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH MINS
LIKELY AT LEAST A CATEGORY TOO MILD.  BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY WITH NW
WINDS OF 20 TO 30+ MPH AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO.

THURSDAY...FAIR AND WARMER AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING.  HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20 TO UPPER 30S AND MINS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/05 AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AFT 00Z/05...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 041730
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOW FREE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER
NORTH...THE FRESH SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS
LIMITING MODEL FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/05 AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AFT 00Z/05...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 041730
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOW FREE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER
NORTH...THE FRESH SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS
LIMITING MODEL FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/05 AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AFT 00Z/05...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 041730
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOW FREE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER
NORTH...THE FRESH SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS
LIMITING MODEL FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/05 AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AFT 00Z/05...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 041120
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOWFREE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH...THE FRESH
SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS LIMITING MODEL
FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT AND PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY RESULT IN
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY AT DBQ AND MLI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 041120
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOWFREE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH...THE FRESH
SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS LIMITING MODEL
FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT AND PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY RESULT IN
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY AT DBQ AND MLI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 041120
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOWFREE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH...THE FRESH
SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS LIMITING MODEL
FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT AND PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY RESULT IN
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY AT DBQ AND MLI. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 040909
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOWFREE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH...THE FRESH
SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS LIMITING MODEL
FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH PERIODIC
VFR CIGS WITH PASSING WARM FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER NORTH OF I-80 LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY VICINITY OF DBQ TERMINAL BEING CLOSER TO
FORCING... BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS FAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
WITH 06Z TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST EARLY
THURSDAY AM AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY.
COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 040909
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOWFREE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH...THE FRESH
SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS LIMITING MODEL
FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH PERIODIC
VFR CIGS WITH PASSING WARM FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER NORTH OF I-80 LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY VICINITY OF DBQ TERMINAL BEING CLOSER TO
FORCING... BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS FAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
WITH 06Z TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST EARLY
THURSDAY AM AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY.
COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 040909
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

AT 08Z...SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM OVER SE WI AND NE IL...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES UNDER A WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
DEEPEST SNOW COVER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH MAINLY TEENS
ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MN AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING SOUTH AND SW. A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN ITS WARM ADVECTION BAND WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN AND NW IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHIFTS AND A PERIOD OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS THE STRONGER FORCING PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DEVELOPING SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SNOWFREE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER NORTH...THE FRESH
SNOW AND LIKELIHOOD OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WAS LIMITING MODEL
FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT AND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FLURRIES WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH IN THE EVENING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE AXIS AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVING FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS ALONE GENERATING AN AXIS OF QPF OVER
NW IL IN THE EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE WEAKER FORCING AND NO
RESULTING PRECIPITATION. WHILE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FROPA FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY THIN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND COLDEST READINGS OVER THE
SNOWFIELDS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CLIPPER LATE ON THE
DAY FRIDAY AND THEN THE COLD DUMP AND CLIPPER SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY.  NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH THE COLD BEING
CONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY EVENING...A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY 00Z SAT.  HIRES
NMM DEPICTS AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MOVING THIS WAY.
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE
MUCH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE FORCING DOES NOT INTERSECT LONG WITH THE COMPLETE SATURATION OF
THE COLUMN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH.  AS
SUCH STILL MAINTAINING A SCHC POPS WITH SNOW ACCUM AMOUNTS OF A
LITTLE MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES

THIS WEEKEND...THE WELL DISCUSSED WARMUP IS STILL FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND EVEN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND GEM ARE TOO COLD WITH SFC TEMPS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE SNOW COVER THAT THE MODELS HAVE.  AS SUCH TRIED TO
LEAN AWAY FROM THESE MODELS WHEN LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.  SUNDAY...THE NEXT CLIPPER AND A SFC LOW IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A SCHC FOR RAIN BEFORE THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND
TURNS ANY PRECIP TO SNOW.  A SERIES OF CLIPPERS ON THE COLD WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LEADING TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

H85 TEMPS DURING NEXT WEEK APPEAR TO BE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HAS H85 TEMPS NEAR
-20C WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS TEMPS NEAR -15C.  REGARDLESS A FEW NIGHTS
WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.  WIND CHILLS EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH PERIODIC
VFR CIGS WITH PASSING WARM FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER NORTH OF I-80 LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY VICINITY OF DBQ TERMINAL BEING CLOSER TO
FORCING... BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS FAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
WITH 06Z TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST EARLY
THURSDAY AM AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY.
COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05




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