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000
FXUS63 KDVN 222028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LLJ
RAN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA THAT WAS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA SLOWLY EVAPORATING
AS THEY MOVE EAST BUT NEW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
EAST GREAT LAKES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FURTHER SLOWING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN RAIN
MAY ONLY BE GETTING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE THREAT OF RAIN
WILL ONLY BE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITH ABOUT 3-4
HOURS OF THAT TIME WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

AS SUCH...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA AND AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE DRY BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LINGER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT BEST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AREAS EAST OF THERE MAY SEE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA AROUND
00Z OR 7PM IF NOT EARLIER AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES.
DESPITE DECREASE IN CLOUDS... LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT BIG DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH LOWS MOST PLACES
ACTUALLY WARMER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 42-49F.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST AS MODELS NOW
CONVERGING ON SCENARIO OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO
AID IN TRANSIENT BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FAVORABLE
FOR DRIZZLE AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME VERY LIGHT NON-MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF PCPN. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE SKY COVER... WHICH
MAY NEED FURTHER RAISING... AND TWEAK HIGHS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CLOUDS TO ARRIVE SOONER. MAY NEED TO
FURTHER TWEAK HIGHS DOWN AS MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST SLOWING OF WARM
FRONT AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE GENERAL RANGE OF HIGHS
FROM MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH WARMEST FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE TRYING
TO PUSH FRONT THROUGH AND BRING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT EXITING
BY LATE EVENING WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOLEST NORTHWEST CWA (MID 40S) TO WARMEST SOUTHEAST
CWA (L50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS
AS WELL AS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANY CHANGE TO NICE WEEKEND BEING
ADVERTISED... BUT IT DOES MEAN TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WHILE COOLER IT WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO EVEN
A BIT ABOVE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH JUST EXITING SUNDAY MORNING... BUT SHOULD
SEE 10-20 MPH DURING AFTERNOON BUT DIRECTION FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH
NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A COUPLE DEGS BUT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7-9C. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE
CWA WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS MODELS OFFER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE WITH STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER AND DEEPER AND WOULD SUGGEST AFTER SOME RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY AND QUITE MILD WARM SECTOR
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE... WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH CLOSING
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GEM AND GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH AND WEAKER WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND SUPPORTIVE
OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MAIN WINDOW OF RAIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS THEN COOLER/DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BLENDED APPROACH WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHERN
CWA AND ENTIRE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS MILD MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TO L70S THEN TRENDING COOLER REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 222028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK LLJ
RAN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO NEBRASKA THAT WAS
PULLING MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES.
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA SLOWLY EVAPORATING
AS THEY MOVE EAST BUT NEW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF DEW POINTS IN THE
50S AND LOW 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE
EAST GREAT LAKES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA. FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FURTHER SLOWING. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN RAIN
MAY ONLY BE GETTING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND WEST AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS.

ON THURSDAY...A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. BASED ON THE OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE THREAT OF RAIN
WILL ONLY BE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITH ABOUT 3-4
HOURS OF THAT TIME WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

AS SUCH...ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY UNTIL
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA AND AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD BE DRY BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL LINGER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AT BEST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AREAS EAST OF THERE MAY SEE 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FAR EASTERN CWA AROUND
00Z OR 7PM IF NOT EARLIER AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FORCING QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES.
DESPITE DECREASE IN CLOUDS... LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WET
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT BIG DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH LOWS MOST PLACES
ACTUALLY WARMER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF 42-49F.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST AS MODELS NOW
CONVERGING ON SCENARIO OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WITH DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO
AID IN TRANSIENT BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE
CWA ON FRIDAY AND EXITING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FAVORABLE
FOR DRIZZLE AND SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME VERY LIGHT NON-MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF PCPN. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE SKY COVER... WHICH
MAY NEED FURTHER RAISING... AND TWEAK HIGHS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE CLOUDS TO ARRIVE SOONER. MAY NEED TO
FURTHER TWEAK HIGHS DOWN AS MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO SUGGEST SLOWING OF WARM
FRONT AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE GENERAL RANGE OF HIGHS
FROM MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH WARMEST FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE TRYING
TO PUSH FRONT THROUGH AND BRING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT EXITING
BY LATE EVENING WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT EXITING SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOLEST NORTHWEST CWA (MID 40S) TO WARMEST SOUTHEAST
CWA (L50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS
AS WELL AS MODELS HAVE CONTINUED SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANY CHANGE TO NICE WEEKEND BEING
ADVERTISED... BUT IT DOES MEAN TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH ABSENCE OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WHILE COOLER IT WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO EVEN
A BIT ABOVE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MUCH LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY WITH THE HIGH JUST EXITING SUNDAY MORNING... BUT SHOULD
SEE 10-20 MPH DURING AFTERNOON BUT DIRECTION FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH
NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMUP. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A COUPLE DEGS BUT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7-9C. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALL MODELS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE
CWA WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS AS MODELS OFFER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE WITH STRENGTH OF ENERGY AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER AND DEEPER AND WOULD SUGGEST AFTER SOME RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHERN CWA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY AND QUITE MILD WARM SECTOR
FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70-75F RANGE... WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAIN
FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH CLOSING
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GEM AND GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TROUGH AND WEAKER WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND SUPPORTIVE
OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MAIN WINDOW OF RAIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE AMOUNTS THEN COOLER/DRIER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT BLENDED APPROACH WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHERN
CWA AND ENTIRE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS MILD MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
TO L70S THEN TRENDING COOLER REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 221736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE DRY AIR IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS PREVENTING
THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE WIDTH OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
SHRINKING WITH THE EASTERN EDGE SLOWLY EVAPORATING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THUS FULL SUN IS EXPECTED FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 221736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE DRY AIR IS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS PREVENTING
THE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA FROM MAKING MUCH HEADWAY EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE WIDTH OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
SHRINKING WITH THE EASTERN EDGE SLOWLY EVAPORATING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THUS FULL SUN IS EXPECTED FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/23 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
PLAINS. NO LLWS IS EXPECTED BUT 0-2KFT AGL SHEAR MAY APPROACH 20
KNOTS AT KCID/KDBQ IN THE HOURS JUST PRIOR AND AFTER SUNRISE. AFT
12Z/23 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO ILLINOIS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 221158
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
658 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST BREEZE TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TIS EVENING.
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KCID AS EARLY AS 08Z THURSDAY...BUT MAIN
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220812
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HELPED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP TRENDS
AND AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
PECATONICA RIVER VALLEY AROUND FREEPORT...AND WILL INTRODUCE INTO
FORECAST GRIDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO
35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND THE DRY GROUND HAS HELPED
TEMPS OVER PERFORM COMPARED TO GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...WILL KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MORE
ROBUST RUNS...THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM REACHES EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. HAVE FINE TUNED POPS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND KEPT POPS
CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS...TO A TENTH
OR TWO IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN THE
.1 TO .4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS BUT BECAUSE THE
TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN I WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
TIME. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND END IN THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN NW IL TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE A SPLENDID PERIOD OF
INDIAN SUMMER WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...
BUT RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE
BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY ON TIMING/INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL WARM ON MONDAY BUT TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL
MODELS SIMILAR IN INDICATING A DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE EDGE TO THE HIGHER QPF OFF THE
ECMWF MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WELL AFTER 06Z/23...A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH EASTERN IOWA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WELL AFTER 06Z/23...A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH EASTERN IOWA.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WELL AFTER 06Z/23...A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH EASTERN IOWA.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212312
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212312
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212026
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/22 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AT KDBQ/KMLI. WEAK FLOW
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AFT 02Z/22. LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN OCCUR WHICH MIGHT GET INTO KDBQ/KMLI AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211735
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/22 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AT KDBQ/KMLI. WEAK FLOW
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AFT 02Z/22. LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN OCCUR WHICH MIGHT GET INTO KDBQ/KMLI AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211109
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211109
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211109
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211109
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210808
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 202316
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS CYCLE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS TO VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING TO EAST-NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THESE APPEAR LIKELY
TO REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 202316
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS CYCLE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS TO VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING TO EAST-NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THESE APPEAR LIKELY
TO REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 202031
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RVR VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RVR/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT 06Z/21 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO KDBQ BY 12Z/21 AND NEAR KMLI.
FOR NOW A SCATTERED DECK OF 2KFT AGL WAS PUT INTO THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 202031
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RVR VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RVR/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT 06Z/21 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO KDBQ BY 12Z/21 AND NEAR KMLI.
FOR NOW A SCATTERED DECK OF 2KFT AGL WAS PUT INTO THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 201738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE DRY AIR AND FULL SUN IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT 06Z/21 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO KDBQ BY 12Z/21 AND NEAR KMLI.
FOR NOW A SCATTERED DECK OF 2KFT AGL WAS PUT INTO THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 201738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE DRY AIR AND FULL SUN IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT 06Z/21 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO KDBQ BY 12Z/21 AND NEAR KMLI.
FOR NOW A SCATTERED DECK OF 2KFT AGL WAS PUT INTO THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08








000
FXUS63 KDVN 201142
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT A NW WIND TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 201142
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT A NW WIND TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY








000
FXUS63 KDVN 200821
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA WILL CAUSE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 200821
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA WILL CAUSE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 200442
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF DEPARTING RIDGE PUSHING TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING DIGGING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI ATTM. LLVL PRESSURE FALLS
AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACRS NW ONTARIO
TO PROGRESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER MI BY 12Z MON.
ALOFT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SUGGEST NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND EVOLVING INTO A
REX BLOCK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVE DUMP DOWN THE VIGOROUS VORT LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS BY MON
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSING THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DVN CWA BY 12Z MON AS UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT OFF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...STILL
A DECENT SECONDARY SWATH OF LIFT/POS OMEGAS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING. WITH SUCH ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...MAIN EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SWEEPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST. VEERING
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MIX AND KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S IN MOST OF
THE DVN CWA. THESE MAINTAINED WINDS ALSO TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG
THREAT UNLESS A TEMPORARY LAG ACRS RIGHT AROUND THE CONVERGENT FROPA.
THE LAG IN COOL AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF ALSO TO LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

MONDAY...LLVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DVN CWA AND ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FUEL SCTRD
SHOWERS ALONG IT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. DEEP POST-TROF MIXING IN A STILL MILD
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ACRS THE
CWA. A CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE TROF AND MAKING IT ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENTLY AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
DECK AND TEMP IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE..DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY.. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER IA/IL WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WEEKEND..A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY DRY CONDITION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA WILL CAUSE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 200442
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF DEPARTING RIDGE PUSHING TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING DIGGING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI ATTM. LLVL PRESSURE FALLS
AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACRS NW ONTARIO
TO PROGRESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER MI BY 12Z MON.
ALOFT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SUGGEST NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND EVOLVING INTO A
REX BLOCK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVE DUMP DOWN THE VIGOROUS VORT LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS BY MON
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSING THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DVN CWA BY 12Z MON AS UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT OFF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...STILL
A DECENT SECONDARY SWATH OF LIFT/POS OMEGAS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING. WITH SUCH ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...MAIN EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SWEEPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST. VEERING
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MIX AND KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S IN MOST OF
THE DVN CWA. THESE MAINTAINED WINDS ALSO TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG
THREAT UNLESS A TEMPORARY LAG ACRS RIGHT AROUND THE CONVERGENT FROPA.
THE LAG IN COOL AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF ALSO TO LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

MONDAY...LLVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DVN CWA AND ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FUEL SCTRD
SHOWERS ALONG IT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. DEEP POST-TROF MIXING IN A STILL MILD
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ACRS THE
CWA. A CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE TROF AND MAKING IT ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENTLY AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
DECK AND TEMP IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE..DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY.. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER IA/IL WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WEEKEND..A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY DRY CONDITION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA WILL CAUSE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 192319
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF DEPARTING RIDGE PUSHING TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING DIGGING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI ATTM. LLVL PRESSURE FALLS
AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACRS NW ONTARIO
TO PROGRESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER MI BY 12Z MON.
ALOFT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SUGGEST NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND EVOLVING INTO A
REX BLOCK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVE DUMP DOWN THE VIGOROUS VORT LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS BY MON
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSING THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DVN CWA BY 12Z MON AS UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT OFF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...STILL
A DECENT SECONDARY SWATH OF LIFT/POS OMEGAS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING. WITH SUCH ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...MAIN EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SWEEPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST. VEERING
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MIX AND KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S IN MOST OF
THE DVN CWA. THESE MAINTAINED WINDS ALSO TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG
THREAT UNLESS A TEMPORARY LAG ACRS RIGHT AROUND THE CONVERGENT FROPA.
THE LAG IN COOL AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF ALSO TO LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

MONDAY...LLVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DVN CWA AND ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FUEL SCTRD
SHOWERS ALONG IT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. DEEP POST-TROF MIXING IN A STILL MILD
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ACRS THE
CWA. A CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE TROF AND MAKING IT ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENTLY AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
DECK AND TEMP IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE..DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY.. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER IA/IL WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WEEKEND..A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY DRY CONDITION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN
A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 192319
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF DEPARTING RIDGE PUSHING TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING DIGGING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI ATTM. LLVL PRESSURE FALLS
AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACRS NW ONTARIO
TO PROGRESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER MI BY 12Z MON.
ALOFT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SUGGEST NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND EVOLVING INTO A
REX BLOCK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVE DUMP DOWN THE VIGOROUS VORT LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS BY MON
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSING THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DVN CWA BY 12Z MON AS UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT OFF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...STILL
A DECENT SECONDARY SWATH OF LIFT/POS OMEGAS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING. WITH SUCH ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...MAIN EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SWEEPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST. VEERING
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MIX AND KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S IN MOST OF
THE DVN CWA. THESE MAINTAINED WINDS ALSO TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG
THREAT UNLESS A TEMPORARY LAG ACRS RIGHT AROUND THE CONVERGENT FROPA.
THE LAG IN COOL AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF ALSO TO LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

MONDAY...LLVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DVN CWA AND ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FUEL SCTRD
SHOWERS ALONG IT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. DEEP POST-TROF MIXING IN A STILL MILD
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ACRS THE
CWA. A CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE TROF AND MAKING IT ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENTLY AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
DECK AND TEMP IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE..DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY.. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER IA/IL WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WEEKEND..A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY DRY CONDITION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN
A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 192319
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF DEPARTING RIDGE PUSHING TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING DIGGING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI ATTM. LLVL PRESSURE FALLS
AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACRS NW ONTARIO
TO PROGRESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER MI BY 12Z MON.
ALOFT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SUGGEST NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND EVOLVING INTO A
REX BLOCK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVE DUMP DOWN THE VIGOROUS VORT LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS BY MON
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSING THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DVN CWA BY 12Z MON AS UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT OFF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...STILL
A DECENT SECONDARY SWATH OF LIFT/POS OMEGAS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING. WITH SUCH ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...MAIN EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SWEEPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST. VEERING
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MIX AND KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S IN MOST OF
THE DVN CWA. THESE MAINTAINED WINDS ALSO TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG
THREAT UNLESS A TEMPORARY LAG ACRS RIGHT AROUND THE CONVERGENT FROPA.
THE LAG IN COOL AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF ALSO TO LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

MONDAY...LLVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DVN CWA AND ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FUEL SCTRD
SHOWERS ALONG IT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. DEEP POST-TROF MIXING IN A STILL MILD
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ACRS THE
CWA. A CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE TROF AND MAKING IT ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENTLY AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
DECK AND TEMP IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE..DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY.. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER IA/IL WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WEEKEND..A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY DRY CONDITION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN
A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 192319
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF DEPARTING RIDGE PUSHING TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING DIGGING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI ATTM. LLVL PRESSURE FALLS
AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACRS NW ONTARIO
TO PROGRESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER MI BY 12Z MON.
ALOFT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SUGGEST NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND EVOLVING INTO A
REX BLOCK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVE DUMP DOWN THE VIGOROUS VORT LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS BY MON
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSING THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DVN CWA BY 12Z MON AS UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT OFF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...STILL
A DECENT SECONDARY SWATH OF LIFT/POS OMEGAS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING. WITH SUCH ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...MAIN EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SWEEPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST. VEERING
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MIX AND KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S IN MOST OF
THE DVN CWA. THESE MAINTAINED WINDS ALSO TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG
THREAT UNLESS A TEMPORARY LAG ACRS RIGHT AROUND THE CONVERGENT FROPA.
THE LAG IN COOL AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF ALSO TO LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

MONDAY...LLVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DVN CWA AND ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FUEL SCTRD
SHOWERS ALONG IT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. DEEP POST-TROF MIXING IN A STILL MILD
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ACRS THE
CWA. A CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE TROF AND MAKING IT ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENTLY AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
DECK AND TEMP IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE..DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY.. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER IA/IL WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WEEKEND..A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY DRY CONDITION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN
A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS








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